The Oilers had a Calder finalist on the roster a year ago, plus two former first-round picks and two gigantic defensemen. This year, it’s doubtful we’ll see even one player who has the impact of Holloway, Skinner, Broberg and Desharnais. The pipeline is not strong, not enough is being shoveled into the furnace to keep things warm.
The last time Edmonton deployed rookies for fewer than 50 games came in 2020-21. William Lagesson (19 games), Evan Bouchard (14), Ryan McLeod (10) and Stuart Skinnner (1) all contributed during the pandemic season. I think the Oilers may be headed for fewer than 50 games by rookies in the season to come.
The final impact player of the Connor McDavid era will post his first big offensive season in 2023-24. How many points is reasonable for Evan Bouchard? https://t.co/lhOfvgwbgu
DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
THE 2015-16 ROOKIES
Total Rookies of Interest: 10. Connor McDavid led in goals and points, Darnell Nurse in games played, Iiro Pakarinen, Anton Slepyshev and Jujhar Khaira hung around for a time.
2015 Draft Notes: Edmonton picked Connor McDavid No. 1 and everything changed. Despite a difficult rookie season (injury), there was absolutely no doubt about McDavid’s stunning talent.
Best Player as a Rookie: Connor McDavid. Only the one play against Philly’s Brandon Manning derailed a dream campaign.
Second Best Player as a Rookie: Brandon Davidson gets the edge, the young defender had a fantastic rookie season.
Oldest Rookie: G Anders Nilsson was 25. He was effective for the team in a backup role, actually getting most of the starts at early points in the year. Nilsson would be traded to St. Louis at the deadline.
Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Nilsson play 26 games, that’s significant. Iiro Pakarinen, 24, also played quite a bit.
Most Unusual Story: Griffin Reinhart was acquired at great expense and the organization whiffed completely in regard to his being NHL-ready. He is no longer playing hockey.
Longest NHL careers. Connor McDavid will be fast at 50. His career is going to be a monster.
Anything Else? The sheer number of defensemen who arrived in a single season (Darnell Nurse, Davidson, Jordan Oesterle, Reinhart, Adam Clendening) was well above average. The quality of this crop was impacted by injury, but the fast defensemen (Nurse, Oesterle) are still going.
THE 2016-17 ROOKIES
Total Rookies of Interest: 7. Matt Benning played the most, Drake Caggiula just behind. Both were college signings and had an immediate impact on the roster.
2016 Draft Notes: Edmonton picked Jesse Puljujarvi at No. 4 overall. He was an ideal selection for the team, as his position (RW) was an area of need and his style was unique to the roster. In the words of Red Line Report big horse looks and plays like a Mats Sundin clone.
Best Player as a Rookie: Matt Benning. He was a strong two-way defender as a rookie, and a perfect fit on the right side for Edmonton. An injury (Viktor Stalberg clipped him) derailed his career and along with Brandon Davidson’s injury (Matt Tkachuk) had enormous impact on the Oilers over time.
Second Best Player as a Rookie: Jesse Puljujarvi. The big Finn and his rambunctious style had an impact. He was not the best rookie on the team, but his career arc looked good.
Oldest Rookie: LD Dillon Simpson, just a little older than Laurent Brossoit, both 23.
Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Matt Benning was 22, turned 23 in May 2017.
Most Unusual Story: Jesse Puljujarvi falling on draft day.
Longest NHL careers. Jesse Puljujarvi still the prohibitive favourite. Matt Benning has played in over 400 NHL games and was a regular last season.
Anything Else? The bloom is off the rose for this particular rookie crop. I’d still bet on Puljujarvi.
THE 2017-18 ROOKIES
Total rookies of interest: 6, none played a bunch but Ethan Bear and Kailer Yamamoto made appearances.
2017 draft notes: Yamamoto made it from the draft floor to the NHL for nine games. He showed tremendous potential and would have to be considered the favourite for best Oilers rookie in 2018-19, although there are other candidates.
Best player as a rookie: Laurent Brossoit played in 14 games, starting 10, posting a 3.24 goals against and .883 save percentage.
Second best player as a rookie: Pontus Aberg, who played in 16 games as an Oiler, scoring twice and finishing with eight points. He was acquired from Nashville during the campaign, Aberg’s final boxcars reading 53, 4-12-16.
Oldest rookie: Brossoit was 24 and had extensive pro experience, including three cups of coffee in previous seasons with the Oilers.
Oldest rookie who played a lot: No Oilers rookie played a lot in 2017-18.
Most unusual story: Nathan Walker was claimed on waivers from the Washington Capitals, played two games with the Oilers, was lost to the Caps on waivers, and then won the Stanley Cup with them. He was claimed December 1 and was home in time for Christmas.
Longest NHL careers: Kailer Yamamoto is the best bet, other candidates include Bear and Brossoit. In the absence of a dominant rookie, best to go with the fastest player who can deliver offense.
Anything else? Keegan Lowe qualified as a rookie, playing two games with Edmonton. The Oilers had another rookie named Lowe who played in the first NHL game in franchise history.
THE 2018-19 ROOKIES
Total rookies of interest: 10. Several (Evan Bouchard, Kailer Yamamoto, Caleb Jones) are enjoying NHL careers. Patrick Russell was another college free-agent signing who played in the league after signing with the Oilers.
2018 draft notes: Bouchard was the most substantial offensive defensemen drafted by the organization since Paul Coffey. Ryan McLeod had some questions about his game, but his blazing speed made him a quality second-round selection.
Best player as a rookie: Colby Cave was picked off waivers from the Boston Bruins in January 2019. He provided solid two-way play for the Oilers and was a big help in the dot.
Second best player as a rookie: Josh Currie, for many of the same reasons Cave helped out. He is a RH forward, and showed enough in 21 games to earn a long look in the fall of 2019. It never came.
Oldest rookie: Currie was 25, Cave and Joe Gambardella just a little younger.
Oldest rookie who played a lot: No Oilers rookie played a lot in 2018-19.
Most unusual story: Cave was a promising young player who was instantly popular with his teammates. He played for the Oilers and Condors in 2019-20, before suffering a hemorrhagic stroke and passing away in April 2020. He is never far from the thoughts of the Oilers organization and fans and one expects he’ll be a prominent topic of conversation when this team wins Stanley, along with Joey and Ben. There are some things you never get over, Cave’s loss is one of them.
Longest NHL careers: Evan Bouchard is the answer, but names who should be mentioned just in case include Kailer Yamamoto and Caleb Jones.
Anything else? Cooper Marody played in six games and he performed well in most of them. I still don’t know why he didn’t get more of a chance.
THE 2019-20 ROOKIES
Total Rookies of Interest: 6
2019 Draft Notes: On the day Ken Holland arrived as general manager, the name Philip Broberg meant nothing. By draft day, the entire town bet their houses on Broberg being the pick. As confident as Holland was, there were other options. Trevor Zegras appears to be the modern Zach Parise/Mathew Barzal.
Best Player as a Rookie: Ethan Bear moved up the depth chart opening night, played most of the season on one of the top two pairs, and helped the Oilers make the postseason.
Second Best Player as a Rookie: Caleb Jones played just over half of the season in the NHL, and had some chaos, but showed enough to project him as a succesful NHL defenseman.
Oldest Rookie: Joel Persson played 13 games, he didn’t get much of a chance after the Larsson injury.
Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Bear and Jones were 22 and the only rookies who played a lot.
Most Unusual Story: Gaetan Haas and Joakim Nygard didn’t qualify as rookies, as they were 27 and 26 respectively. Holland signed them so he could evaluate everyone in the system without having to rely on unproven rookies. Another example of Tyler Benson and Cooper Marody being passed over and valuable at-bats devoted to journeymen.
Longest NHL careers. Caleb Jones and Ethan Bear are the easy choices and I believe Bear is the better player but Jones the better skater. I don’t know the answer but am pretty sure it’s between those two men. William Lagesson is stuck at 60 games, but I think he could see the NHL again and wouldn’t count him out for significant games in the future. He’s only 27.
Anything Else? Jones and Bear were the only rookies to appear in the playoffs, that can often be a sign of a promising future with a team. The team would trade both men in the summer of 2021.
THE 2020-21 ROOKIES
Total Rookies of Interest: 4
2020 Draft Notes: Dylan Holloway was the first choice of scouting director Tyler Wright’s time with the Oilers. He seemed a curious pick based on the players who remained on the board (Dawson Mercer, Ridly Greig and Kaiden Guhle) but the combination of speed and passing looks exceptional. He’s a player. Carter Savoie may be a sneaky good selection.
Best Player as a Rookie: Evan Bouchard. His playing just 14 games is a reflection of an extremely conservative coaching staff, not his significant ability.
Second Best Player as a Rookie: Ryan McLeod showed well in 10 games.
Oldest Rookie: William Lagesson was 24.
Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: No one played a lot. The list: Stuart Skinner (1), Ryan McLeod (10), Evan Bouchard (14) and William Lagesson (19).
Most Unusual Story: It was a 56-game season, but not playing Evan Bouchard for 75 percent of the schedule was coaching malpractice.
Longest NHL careers: Evan Bouchard is an impact player in waiting, Ryan McLeod is fast and Stuart Skinner is a young goalie with size and good mechanics. It’s Bouchard, he’s an elite talent.
Anything Else? If the Oilers do win a Stanley this decade, this rookie class, specifically the three who remain, will play a big part in the success. Outstanding talent.
THE 2021-22 ROOKIES
Total Rookies of Interest: 7
2021 Draft Notes: Many Oilers fans will view the 2021 draft as the time the organization failed to pick Jesper Wallstedt, instead trading down and picking Xavier Bourgault. Both men are tracking well.
Best Player as a Rookie: Ryan McLeod was outstanding during the year, and took on more playing time once Jay Woodcroft arrived as coach. He was the only rookie regular in the postseason, scoring three goals in 16 games. He could be the best second-round pick in 15 years or more.
Second Best Player as a Rookie: Stuart Skinner played 13 games, started 12, and posted a save percentagre of .913. It was the most encouraging debut since Devan Dubnyk for an Oilers goalie.
Oldest Rookie: Cooper Marody played one game, age 25.
Oldest Rookie Who Played a Lot: Tyler Benson played 29 games, scoring 1-1-2, age 23.
Most Unusual Story: Dmitri Samorukov played 2:28 in his only game, made a couple of missteps and didn’t play another minute in the game. This is a significant prospect, it might have been a good idea to give him another shift or two without Jordan Kyrou on the ice. Oilers dealt him fall 2022.
Longest NHL careers: It’s my opinion we’re looking at three long careers here. Ryan McLeod and Philip Broberg are strong candidates and I believe Stuart Skinner could play a long time.
Anything Else? Dylan Holloway played one game and it was in the playoffs. Broberg (and McLeod) were the only other rookies to make a postseason appearance.
THE 2022-23 ROOKIES
Total rookies of interest: There are five rookies to remember from this season. Dylan Holloway (51 games), Stuart Skinner (50), Philip Broberg (46), Vincent Desharnias (36) and Markus Niemelainen (23). This is a talented group. Last season, only Ryan McLeod (71, 9-12-21) was in the same range. Two years ago, the best rookie (Evan Bouchard) barely played (14, 2-3-5) so you never know.
2022 draft notes: Reid Schaefer was traded and that means 2022 is going to be the least productive draft in terms of GP with the Oilers in a long damn time. That said, Russian defenseman Nikita Yevseyev played 48 KHL games (5-2-7) in his draft plus one year and that’s a strong arrow.
Best player as a rookie: Skinner and it’s not close. I’m surprised, because Broberg and Holloway are top-15 overall picks. Skinner had a fine season, received a nomination for the Calder.
Second best player: Broberg, who helped settle the third pairing and displayed the promise one would expect from such a high pick. Desharnais and Holloway could make a case, and if the season lasted longer, I think any of these men could win this category.
Oldest rookie: Vincent Desharnais is so old he doesn’t qualify as a rookie but I don’t believe in punishing a guy for working extra years on his craft. Drafted in 2016, you could write a book on bafflement surrounding he and Jesse Puljujarvi. Ships that passed in the night who weren’t supposed to be in the same ocean.
Most unusual story: Desharnais takes the lead, for one specific reason. Opponents really don’t like him. He is going to be one of the most hated Oilers in history by the end of next season. He’ll join the ranks of Mark Messier, Kelly Buchberger, Steve Smith, Jason Smith, Dave Manson, Brian Marchment, Don Jackson. He riles people up.
Longest NHL careers: Broberg, Holloway, Skinner.
Anything else? Unique bunch. Skinner has calm feet, stops pucks. Desharnais inspires quotes from Slap Shot (“this young man has had a very trying rookie season, with the litigation, the notoriety, his subsequent deportation to Canada and that country’s refusal to accept him”) and he’s effective in the NHL. Plus Holloway and Broberg should be NHL players in feature roles for years. It’s a fine group.
THE 2023-24 ROOKIES
Total rookies of interest: Seven, but none are locks and all but one are at least some distance away from being NHL players based on last year’s performances. Xavier Bourgault is the first round pick, plus there’s Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie pushing from Bakersfield. Matvey Petrov, Olivier Rodrigue and Phil Kemp are also worth noting this early in the proceedings.
2023 draft notes: The Oilers had just three picks. Beau Akey was an astute choice in the second round, and later on center Matt Copponi was the choice and there are some interesting things about him.
Best player as a rookie: I’ll suggest Lavoie has the edge now. I know there’s plenty of talk about the contract, but he’ll get a full shot in training camp and I suspect will emerge as a real roster candidate. So much of rookie success depends on opportunity, Lavoie has the edge.
Second best player: Bourgault is a first-round selection, so gets the nod here. I was impressed with his rookie season, he could help himself with some goals in preseason before heading to Bakersfield.
Oldest rookie: Phil Kemp and Noel Hoefenmayer are 24, would be the oldest among the group we’re expecting to be in the mix.
Most unusual story: Hoefenmayer has had an unusual path in pro hockey but I think there’s a player here. His performance with the Toronto Marlies last season should have him on your radar. Noah Philp’s retirement is unusual in a different way.
Longest NHL career: Bourgault. Always bet on the first-round pick. His season may not seem like a player knocking on the door, but his points-game in the AHL (.554) isn’t so far away from Dylan Holloway or Kailer Yamamoto (both .667) and is better than Raphael Lavoie (.464) managed in his rookie season. I think we might be looking at a player in Bourgault who has more range, but enough skill to land an NHL job in the next 18 months.
Anything else? Ken Holland’s system has some mystery to it, so there’s a flock of players we have to at least ponder in terms of a possible NHL future. Ryan Fanti didn’t have a strong pro debut, but that doesn’t bury him as it might have in the past. In Holland’s minor-league system, Fanti has thrown about six warmup pitches.
New for The Athletic: The final impact player of the Connor McDavid era will post his first big offensive season in 2023-24. How many points is reasonable for Evan Bouchard?
Watching Holland vs US soccer. Reminds me of my issues with the Canadian team and the Oilers. Dutch are trying to play a tidy passive game and it worked until somehow even with massive possession they came into the second half more tired than the US. Fitness is a thing. To beat the best you have to train as hard, or harder. Everyone
And also with apparently no offensive plan. 2/3 of the field, great. The important 1/3 no attack. The US is so much more aggressive and strategic in the scoring areas. I strongly dislike the US team because they are dirty and cheap, but they can push effectively when needed
Canada’s team has of course won gold but really lack a high end attack. Also not nearly the ball control I see in this game, outside of a few. It relies too much on individual skills of Christine and some hopefuls, and a lucky bounce. Which I also feel about the Oilers offensive strategy. Connor and sometimes Leon, and bounces. Which is very Flattopish
• Connor Bedard
• Logan Cooley
• Adam Fantilli
• Devon Levi
• Brandt Clarke
• Luke Hughes
• Matthew Knies
• David Jiricek
• Shane Wright
• Simon Edvinsson
• Dustin Wolf
• William Eklund
• Olen Zellweger
Yeah the list makes it seem like 4 gp, 0 pts with Columbus and 55gp, 38 pts in the AHL David Jiricek will be in the race to win a Calder which.. well.. stranger things have happened but… it won’t be much of a race for a lot of those names.
At the same age and point in their career (draft +1), Bouchard scored an NHLe of 31 points in the regular season in the OHL (the only league he could play in outside the NHL), compared to the 27 NHLe of Jiricek’s.
While Columbus was a tire fire last season, finishing 1 whole point above last place, with Severson, Gudbranson, Peeke and Boqvist on RD, he may not get much of a shot.
In his 19 year old season in the AHL, Bouchard scored 36 points in the AHL and did not have to adapt to a new culture, language and a bigger ice surface.
Jiricek played against adults the last 2 years before he made it to the AHL so I think he had an advantage there. He played 4 games with no points in the NHL as an 18 year old where Bouchard played 7 games with one goal in the NHL and 8 games with 8 points in the AHL playoffs. I’d say Bouchard was moderately ahead of Jiricek at the same age. Expecting him to outplay Bedard is a longshot. Fanduel has him at +3200 to win with Bedard at -110. He’d definitely have to outplay Luke Hughes which seems unlikely as Hughes has 4 points in 5 games played last season and seems to be ahead of Jiricek.
Well, you are easily impressed by anyone who’s not an Oiler or Oiler prospect so there’s that.
OriginalPouzar
July 26, 2023 12:44 pm
Capfriendly’s current roster has Pederson, Lavoie and Niemo on it and no Borberg with 5,609,208 of cap space. I think, for this exercise, you remove those three and add Broberg which gives the Oilers $7,157,500 of cap space with 18 players and the need to add: McLeod, Broberg and 12F.
The Oilers need to get McLeod/Bouch done at $6,382,500 and they can add a league min 12F, be it Pederson or an external signing.
The Oilers would need to get McLeod/Bouch done at $6,283,375 if they want Lavoie at 12F.
With McLeod trending towards $2.25MM or higher in arb and Bouch rumored to be around $4MM, that $100K has a real chance to actually preclude Lavoie’s spot on the opening roster.
Lavoie could actually make the team several ways. Holloway is a 925k cap hit, Ryan 900k, Janmark 1M, Broberg 864k. If Lavoie plays his way onto the team (and better/even to any of those 4),the Oilers will have the ability to make room for the extra 100k
Holloway and Broberg need to be on the opening roster so that their performance bonuses don’t hit the cap upon recall – not to mention, well, its tough to imagine either of them not being on the team on merit.
I don’t intend to be rude, but I am kind of curious why do you tend to repeat yourself so often in your posts? There seems to be one topic you focus in on and mention daily until something new captures your attention.
Again, I’m asking out of curiosity, not to be a jerk.
The post you are responding to set out the factual cap sutation and how much cap space the Oilers will have for a 12F as it relates to the two RFA signings.
I have never posted that before – I just did the calculations right before that post.
Of note, all the regular posters post their opinions on the team many, many, many times – repeating themselves.
I’m pretty sure we all know Godot’s views on where Broberg should play and on why Lavoie signed for more. We know what Cowboy Bill thought of Yamamoto, etc., etc., etc.
I lost a lot of respect for Tippett and his to refusal to play Bouchard. I was glad when Tippett got canned. This will not be forgotten by Bouchard I’m sure Holland had a hand in this as well. What was done to Bouchard is not the way to treat your highest pedigree drafted D-man since Coffey.
Holland likely won’t care but the Bouchard situation is playing out in much the same way the Nurse contract snafus led to him having one of the worst contracts in the league.
Might work well for the team although paying a player huge dollars through his declining years to age 36 has proven to be a very risky proposition over and over.
And, of course, this assumes Bouchard is amenable to forgoing millions of dollars over the next 4 years to subsidize the salaries of others.
His closest comparable is Noah Dobson who already has one year @ $4 million in the bank with only 2 more seasons and should easily surpass the $5.6 million you earmarked for Bouchard’s third deal.
Dobson banks $12 million over the same period that you would be paying Bouchard less than $8 million.
That’s precisely the problem for the team but there is no guarantee that whomever is the GM at the time will overpay him to the extent that Nurse is overpaid..in fact it’s more unlikely than not.
The best players increasingly are paid well for their prime years which Bouchard is now entering but poor cap management makes that impossible in his case and the Nurse contract is a big part of the problem.
That’s precisely the problem for the team but there is no guarantee that whomever is the GM at the time will overpay him to the extent that Nurse is overpaid..in fact it’s more unlikely than not.
So… there isn’t really much to be concerned about with Bouchard?
I would be concerned that he will inisis on being paid full market value if I were you.
Considering the cap has gone up since Dobson signed for $4 million and Dobson is a year closer to his next contract, Bouchard should be looking at $4.5 million minimum but you think he should take $3.2 million for 2 years and fall even further behind.
I don’t think any reasonable interpretation of JP’s post has him thinking Bouchard should take $3.2 million. He merely responded to your post about that deal being possible and said it would be good for the team. And you’re that last person JP should take advice on about what he should be concerned about.
The worry isn’t Bouchard or his agent, the worry is Holland. He is tough on entry contracts (Bear, McLeod) but isn’t strong once a sliver of daylight enters the room.
So, if I’m guessing, McLeod will come in around $2.2 million (sliver of daylight) and then Holland tries to squeeze Bouchard. Bear didn’t come to camp until late, McLeod signed the day he arrived at camp.
Bouchard has more power than the ordinary player in his position. I wish the Oilers had a full blown front office.
Holland, in my opinion, has done well as Oilers general manager. He has always had a solid to excellent amateur scouting staff and the pro group is showing much better than Archie Henderson (I know, low bar).
The contract negotiations that involve some power on the other side tend to be a sticky wicket in Edmonton.
I think their are a number of instances to say that Holland doesn’t always comes out on the short end if he doesn’t have the upper hand. Nugent Hopkins @5 million x 8 was a significant bargain the day it was signed. Getting Kane to re-sign for 4 x 5.125 was a very good deal. Hyman at 7 x $5.5 million was a good deal. For Yamamoto and Puljujarvi, he didn’t end up paying them more than what their prior years’ results would have gotten them in an arbitration awards. If he and McLeod go all the way through arbitration, McLeod will be getting paid “the market” for his services.
Yeah, Redbird62 covered much of this. There’s no need to put words in my mouth. You mentioned the Nurse snafu as it relates to Bouchard, and I said that would actually be a really solid outcome.
Bouchard should be looking at $4.5 million minimum
And if I’m understanding this correctly, 2nd pairing defenseman Evan Bouchard should be getting paid at least 15% more than 1st pairing defenseman K’Andre Miller and elite modern defenseman Bowen Byram? Oh my.
Did you notice he also used the phrase “the best players” when referring to Bouchard? He is basically saying the Oilers should have been able to lock up Bouchard at 8 x a big number because that’s what good teams do with players like him. Because they can’t, he says they have screwed up. But we know that if the Oilers had the space and did lock up Bouchard to 8 x a big number, HH would be arguing that’s the dumbest use of cap space and that Bouchard is not worth it. Being anti-Oiler or anti-Oiler fans is pretty much the only thing he is consistent about.
‘Because they can’t’ is relative. They can’t if they remain betrothed to a winger that had a decent playoffs (but only 3 points) that was healthy scratched during the season making nearly 3M and a RD they use first pair that had one decent stretch and otherwise has been shown by every deeper look I’ve seen to be over his head
This outlook is going to cost depth in the future. Foegele and Ceci are not going to be the reason the Oilers win the Cup, there are many players at least that good that are cheaper, some already on the roster
Byram is almost 2 years younger than Bouchard and has missed numerous games due to injury and yet is already being paid more than you think Bouchard should accept.
I think I prefered the “Bouchard is not an NHL player and Ty Smith passed him like a house on the road” HH instead of this new “Oilers mishandled their star defenseman and he is going to demand a lot of money because he is envious of his draft cohort’s earnings” HH
No mention of the Stars contract eh? No mention ofSeguin higher up the craptacular batting order? Doughty with an honorable mention at the bottom too but he was up in tier just last year so lets call it a technical adjustment this year. Weird.
Too bad. Neither of those deals stopped Blake and Nill from crapping the bed on the PLD, Kopitar and Hinze deals lol. On the plus side at least Hinze cracked 30 goals before he got The Gold Bar treatment. Blake tripped over himself to pay PLD in full. Still Hinze is on the wrong side of the age curve for that sort of money and an NMC for 8 years.
Anchor Contracts if I ever did see em.
With Trevling out sandbagging the Leafs and the Avs rolling out a truly terrifying line of Drouin-RyJo-Nichuskin, its so awesome when all your comp cuts off their noses right in front of you.
Last edited 9 months ago by SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
I presume that Bouchard won’t forget the work Holland did to get him a place to play in Sweden during the pandemic to continue his develop, see part of the work and make a bit of money.
Darren Yorke is also AGM, and Aaron Schartz is Director of Hockey operations responsible for all contract negotiations among other things. I guess they and Don Waddell just sit around twiddling their thumbs while Tulsky carries the mail, eh?
No doubt Tulsky has input, but Waddell makes the final decisions. And where did Waddell get his start in NHL managing – as an AGM to Holland in ’97/98.
The trade was awesome, but I don’t expect D’Angelo’s new contract to turn out any better than his previous contracts. It’s only one year so easy to move on, but seems like a big waste of time.
I wonder what it’s like to have management like that?
OriginalPouzar
July 26, 2023 10:29 am
Total rookies of interest: Seven, but none are locks and all but one are at least some distance away from being NHL players based on last year’s performances. Xavier Bourgault is the first round pick, plus there’s Raphael Lavoie, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie pushing from Bakersfield. Matvey Petrov, Olivier Rodrigue and Phil Kemp are also worth noting this early in the proceedings.
I think we can add Grubbe to this group – if we are including rookie pros graduating from junior that have all but no real shot at the NHL this season, like Petrov, I think Grubbe deserves a mention.
Of course, Grubbe doesn’t have near the ceiling of a Petrov who COULD be a legit top line goal scoring winger if it all pops for him (unlikely but that’s the ceiling) and Grubbe likely tops out at a 3C if he pops.
2023 draft notes: The Oilers had just three picks. Beau Akey was an astute choice in the second round, and later on center Matt Copponi was the choice and there are some interesting things about him.
I’m going to be cheering for Copponi to “make it” – I think he’s got more of a chance than the likes of Maatta.
Best player as a rookie: I’ll suggest Lavoie has the edge now. I know there’s plenty of talk about the contract, but he’ll get a full shot in training camp and I suspect will emerge as a real roster candidate. So much of rookie success depends on opportunity, Lavoie has the edge.
Coming in to camp he’s clearly the most “NHL-ready” and there is a clear roster spot (only 11 locks on forward). Without another signing, he’s got to have the inside track on 12F over Pederson (right shot center abilities aside).
Second best player: Bourgault is a first-round selection, so gets the nod here. I was impressed with his rookie season, he could help himself with some goals in preseason before heading to Bakersfield.
Important season for him as a second year pro. I expect him to be an impact player in the AHL, all situations and impact in all situations and game states – real chance for a recall later in the season.
Oldest rookie: Phil Kemp and Noel Hoefenmayer are 24, would be the oldest among the group we’re expecting to be in the mix.
Skating, of course, remains the issue for Kemp but its the ONLY issue for me. Of course, its one skill that often precludes a player from the NHL. I think he could play NHL games this season. Hoefenmayer too, there is something about him that intrigues me – maybe its the fact the he’s coming from the Leafs org.
I don’t understand the Grubbe trade. While it was only a 5th round pick, what was the point?
Grubbe’s a long to maybe make it as a 4c in the NHL one day. Fourth line centres are available for free every year, why would Holland spend a 5th to acquire a guy who might make it as a 4c when he’s retired?
There’s the argument that the Oilers need a centre in Bakersfield for developing wingers, but I ca’t buy that you need to spend draft capital for an AHL centre.
I’m with you, but here’s the part I also don’t understand.
John Marino was on track to be a sure-fire NHL defenseman, but he wouldn’t sign with the Oilers after Chiarelli left, so all we could get was a sixth round pick.
Now with Grubbe, my understanding which could be wrong, was that New York wasn’t going to offer him a contract, so Holland swooped in and offered a 5th round pick, for a guy who as you say could one day make it, potentially, as a 4rth line centre.
How was Grubbe worth a fifth if Holland could only get a 6th for a far better prospect in Marino?
With Marino, if the Oilers signing rights had lapsed, Marino becomes a free agent and can sign with anyone including the Penguins, so they would have still had a shot at him. They gave up a 6th for the right to negotiate with him a little before other teams. If Holland had tried to get more, the Penguins could have waited.
For Grubbe, if the Rangers signing rights lapsed, Grubbe goes back into the draft. He would not have been a free agent available to the Oilers. Only a team that traded for his rights had a shot to sign him exclusively. Getting that period to talk to Grubbe before the end of the signing rights period was considerably more important and thus worth a higher pick.
And Grubbe was a 3rd round pick, only 20 years old, whose stock has risen based on his last year performance. A little premature to say his absolute upside is a 4th line center.
There are some differences as you point out with the draft eligibility. Still, it seems like a bit of a premium paid for a guy the Rangers didn’t want.
His offence looks awfully shy to me. He was half a point per game in his draft plus one, while being a hair over a point per game, in the WHL, in his draft plus two. He only played five games in his draft year.
Ryder Korczak, the Rangers next pick in the same round of that draft got a contract. He had 1.16 ppg in his draft plus one and 1.44 pog in his draft plus two, both in the WHL.
Unless Grubbe has boots like Ryan McLeod, I think it would be quite a feat for a guy who didn’t see a ppg until his draft plus 2 in the WHL, to make it as a top nine player.
Until his signing rights expired, the Rangers had an asset, since those rights were the only way to negotiate and sign Grubbe before he goes back into the draft, otherwise the only access to his rights were through the draft. It is possible one or two other teams were also looking at a chance to be able to sign Grubbe before he went back into the draft so that a 6th or 7th rounder wasn’t going to get it done.
If the 5th rounder was the price it was going to take, Holland asks himself do I take Grubbe, sign him (and he probably had a good idea he would get him to sign) or let him go to another team or back into the draft and keep the 5th rounder. I doubt that Grubbe would fall all the way to the 5th round in the draft, since obviously if he did, Holland could draft him then, and he’d be in the exact same spot as he is now.
It is not unreasonable right now to say that Grubbe has a better shot of playing in the NHL anytime in the next 3 to 4 seasons than a player like Rasmus Larsson, who the Rangers took with the pick, or most of the other 5th rounders. He is ahead of all those 5th rounders in age already and has declined since being taken as a 3rd rounder. And if the Oilers believe a decent likelihood of a 4th line player, that’s better than a random 5th rounder who has about a 10% chance of playing in the NHL at all.
It is not unreasonable right now to say that Grubbe has a better shot of playing in the NHL anytime in the next 3 to 4 seasons than a player like Rasmus Larsson, who the Rangers took with the pick, or most of the other 5th rounders.
To trade draft capital for a player that has limited upside, requires development, and there’s still quite a reasonable amount of uncertainty if he’ll ever play in the NHL, is not a strategy that I would endorse.
You can find better players that are closer to being NHL ready on waivers every year or sign a Lane Pedersen for league minimum. Or you can just trade for these players, ones that are already developed, for fairly low cost.
I would rather use my picks on lottery tickets looking for Mark Stones and Johnny Gaudreaus.
Grubbe is only closer to the NHL than Rasmus Larsson by virtue of being older, but that’s a double-edged sword too, because older prospects are also closer to aging out into tweeners. Larsson was an overager though, so the age difference isn’t much.
Generally, most players that are traded before establishing themselves end up as tweeners. Even those with better pedigree than Grubbe with Colton Teubert, Griffin Reinhart, and Cooper Marody, as recent Oiler examples.
The main exception to this are probably some of the college players, particularly defensemen like Adam Fox, John Marino, and Justin Schultz.
Sakic had a run of finding some like Ryan Graves or Sam Girard though Girard was a notable prospect at the time.
Overall, I don’t recall too many of these types of trades except in instances where the player forces the issue like Adam Fox.
Why did Vegas trade a 2nd for Keegan Kolesar? I think that’s what the hope for Grubbe is.
In terms of 5th for Grubbe vs. 6th for Marino, yeah clearly that doesn’t look good. I don’t think it’s at all fair to say that Marino was “on track to be a sure-fire NHL defenseman” at the time though.
I sure don’t recall there being much hype about him on here, and there would have been better offers for him if he was a clear cut NHLer as he left college.
Yes, Kolesar is probably a better skater. The only mention of Grubbe’s skating I recall is in an interview from Coach Sutter, so not an unbiased assessment. Not sure Kolesar’s skating was good enough to get mentions in scouting reports or not though.
Their production is quite similar aside from the draft +1 season. And they were both 3rd round picks in their respective drafts (Kolesar 69th, Grubbe 65th).
There’s really not a big gap in the two players statistically at the same age, or in how they were assessed on draft day.
You can make the argument that you’re getting a better sample size with Kolesar over his draft, draft +1, and draft + 2 seasons in terms of both consistency and number of games played.
Other than that, with similar numbers in the draft plus 2, it would come down to intangibles. Kolesar is a fast skater and tough customer.
5 years ago, if you asked me would I trade a second round pick for a guy who needed development to turn into a 4rth line winger, I would have emphatically said, “no.”
Now, someone like Kolesar might reshape my opinion. If you factor in that he’s big, fast, forechecks like a demon, fights, defensively decent, (edit)–> hits like a truck, scores a bit, and fairly cheap ($1.4m)–not to mention you’re getting his prime age years, that might change my current opinion.
I’m pretty sure that if Ken Holland had traded a 2nd for Kolesar after 54 26-34-60 final junior season you’d have been harsher than you are on a 5th for Grubbe, no matter what Kolesar’s intangibles were. Is that fair?
The other thing is whether it’s ever justifiable to pay a draft pick for a guy who projects as a 4th liner since those players are readily available. It seem like you’ve come around with the Kolesar example to not all 4th line players being equal, and some of them being being worth much more than a 5th.
Grubbe also has lots of intangibles. His scouting reports talk about his defense, but he’s also big and rugged, he was a captain of a WHL team at age 17, and I don’t think any of his scouting reports have mentioned him being a poor skater.
If you can acknowledge that Kolesar has real value I just don’t see how you can reasonably peg Grubbe as a player who couldn’t be worth a 5th round pick.
I agree with you here that a fifth is reasonable for Grubbe.
Given how often (every year) over the last 20 years I’ve seen comments saying we need a “Big, Right-Shot, Fourth-Line Centre, who can win faceoffs and kill Penalties” I’d say a 5th round pick is worth the risk. For context, there is exactly one player drafted in the fifth round from 2016-now that has played 200+ games, Yegor Sharangovich. A fifth really isn’t that much to give up and the Oilers could really use a defensive centre they can stash in the minors and recall when needed for the next 3-4 years.
It’s nice to wish for a Johnny Gaudreau but the reality is you usually end up with Kirill Maksimov.
Grubbe also has lots of intangibles. His scouting reports talk about his defense, but he’s also big and rugged, he was a captain of a WHL team at age 17, and I don’t think any of his scouting reports have mentioned him being a poor skater.
Curlock says that he has to work on his first step.
For whatever reason, his first step sure doesn’t look good in the video in that post. It looks like he was killing a penalty though, so maybe he was tired.
This random post also mentions skating as an issue.
Hopefully that’s something he’s working on with whomever helped Draisaitl after his first NHL season.
With Murray and Muzzin on LTIR it looks like they are compliant. There is a quirk of LTIR that using it over the summer can create issues with maximizing the LTIR space so we might see a weird move or two prior to the season starting.
Capfriendly still shows them $2M+ over with 22 players. Robertson is on an injured list so his salary can be removed (either assigned or LTIRed) but they would still be $1.27M over with 22 players. They are closer than I thought, but they still can not get compliant by assigning 1 more player (for 21-man roster).
Yup. As things currently stand if the Leafs send their 3 lowest salaried players to the AHL they would be compliant with a cap surplus of $302,717 and a 20 man roster. Treliving has still more work to do.
That would be a logical move but at what cost? The similar chatter here is that the Oilers would be most likely to move Foegele if they have to have cap room for Bouchard but, again, how many teams are interested and nobody is doing it for free when they know a GM is up against the wall – and Jarnkok has three more years at $2.1M in a league where similar players are still can’t get a gig for under a $1M.
They can get within 300k with a 21 man roster using all of their waiver exempt players or they could send down Lafferty and ice a 21 man roster. It’s not ideal for them but they are close enough to get compliant until someone else gets hurt real bad
It’s not ideal for them but they are close enough to get compliant until someone else gets hurt real bad
Sort of. Sending down Lafferty still isn’t enough to ice 21 players (still $122k over).
They could get compliant by burying 2 NHL players though. Like Lafferty and Knies, or Lafferty and Timmins sent down, and one cheaper player to replace them.
They are in a bit worse place than the Oilers were last year when Janmark had to be waived to get compliant.
jp
July 26, 2023 10:03 am
Yeah, slim pickings for rookies with a reasonable chance to play many games this season.
Lavoie is the only one who looks likely to be a regular or semi-regular, and there’s lots of question as to whether that will actually end up happening.
I do also think there’s a legitimate chance that Bourgault takes a step offensively and ends up as a regular in the 2nd half though. Not that I’m quite expecting it, but if he can push a point per game and continue to that responsible 2-way game there should be a spot for him. McLeod did just that and was an NHL regular by the end of his 2nd pro season.
The overall group looks like it will produce NHL talent, most just aren’t likely to make a big impact this season.
The guy I find intriguing is Matvey Petrov. He may be the next Miroslav Satan, who’s time with the Oil was too short. But yeah, it’s looking like they like Bourgault better than Lavoie.
Yes, Petrov is interesting for sure, though unlikely to get NHL games this season.
In terms of ‘liking’ Bourgault more than Lavoie, why? They didn’t give Lavoie a 1-way contract like many of us were expecting, but in hindsight that would have been a fairly unusual contract to give to a guy in his situation. Seems unnecessary to flip to ‘they like so and so better’ based on anything that’s transpired.
I just think they may be pissed off at Lavoie for taking his qualifying offer. They had a plan and he’s not playing ball. From what I’ve seen from Bourgault he has a good head on his shoulders.
I think Bourgault is the guy they have circled in case they end up with injuries to a scoring forward. I think he or Lavoie could have a 20g/40p pace in a short run but that the team sees Lavoie as bottom six and Bourgault as top six.
I think Bourgault needs to take a step scoring-wise before he’s in the conversation for a call-up. Though I think there is a real chance that could happen this season.
but that the team sees Lavoie as bottom six and Bourgault as top six
Yeah it’s possible you’re right, though I don’t see any reason the team would have made that sort of determination.
I’d assume Bourgault plays at least October and November in the AHL regardless of how he plays because that seems to be the way in the NHL for the most part. He did score 6 points in his first 7 games last year before falling off so his true role/ability has yet to be determined.
I haven’t seen anyone say it but the handling of Lavoie (0 NHL games in 3 years while James Hamblin got 10 last year) suggests they have less faith in him and the role he’s able to play while Bourgault is not only a first rounder but the highest draft pick still in the system.
Obviously, their play will determine where they end up but that’s just my suspicion. 2024-25 has Foegele, Brown and Janmark becoming free agents and Bourgault/Lavoie/Tulio could be good/cheap season opening replacements.
I haven’t seen anyone say it but the handling of Lavoie (0 NHL games in 3 years while James Hamblin got 10 last year) suggests they have less faith in him and the role he’s able to play while Bourgault is not only a first rounder but the highest draft pick still in the system.
But IMO this just isn’t a tell. The reason Lavoie didn’t get a single game on his ELC is because the first time he looked like he should have was about the middle of his 3rd season.
And when a player has the lightbulb go on you want (I would, anyway) to be sure that it stays on for a time before you accept it as the new normal. It was only around the deadline (~30 games of being ‘on’) before I would have considered Lavoie for a recall based on sustained strong play, and as we know making roster moves last season wasn’t exactly trivial.
If this was the Oilers of 2018 Lavoie no doubt would have gotten some games at the end of the season.
I think if you look at the Oilers roster and the struggle for a scoring 2RW where Yamamoto got hurt, JP traded, Bjugstad played there, signing Connor Brown etc. you would suspect if the Oilers saw Lavoie as a 2RW he would have gotten at least one shot at it. Did he deserve that shot? Not necessarily but that he was never tried in that role would seem to indicate the Oilers don’t see him playing there. He could play his way into that role but I suspect they are thinking bottom six player who can maybe score 10-15 goals.
As I said, I don’t think he’d played well enough for a sustained period until the very end of last season to warrant that being seen that way by the organization. He has now put 2/3 of an AHL season together where you might consider him for a spot in the top six.
If he comes in next season and continues to play like he did for the last 2/3 of last season then he might well get a chance in the top 6 if something opens up due to injury. But I just don’t see how you can read anything into him not getting a callup to potentially fill a role that he did not appear ready for when there was a need.
I think that the team that made space so that Jason Demers could play his 700th game would have made space for Lavoie to play a couple of games at 2RW instead of Bjugstad to see what they really had. I do think he can play his way into that spot but I really don’t see how the team could see him there and not want to try him out at least once.
I don’t think it was as easy to call him up and put him in the lineup as you’re suggesting. IIRC Demers was an emergency recall. Lavoie was too expensive to be an emergency recall. So another player would have to have been waived in order to give Lavoie his cup of coffee. I fail to see how giving Lavoie a few games down the stretch could warrant waiving an NHL regular on the midst of a playoff run. Hence, it makes no sense to me to read anything into him not getting a callup.
Devin Shore and his 850k kept going up and down. Evander Kane was on LTIR until January 17th. Yamamoto was on LTIR as until February 17th. James Hamblin and his 807.5K was on the roster in January. Ryan McLeod went on LTIR April 7th. If they had wanted to, they could have brought Lavoie up and played him. They chose not to. They did choose to call up James Hamblin. Twice. He’s not only waiver exempt this year but not even in the conversation for 4C this season. It does say something.
In the case of Hamblin, it says they needed a center. In 10 games, he took 42 faceoffs and won 27 of them. It doesn’t mean Lavoie not being called up was a great movie, but in the case of Hamblin I think the club was specifically looking for a pivot.
I think recalling Hamblin over Lavoie did make sense. I don’t have a big issue with the team not calling up Lavoie but I do think it shows the team sees Lavoie as competing for the Foegele/Janmark/Ryan role this year and the next as opposed to Bourgault/Holloway who are viewed by the org as possible top-six players. Lavoie could end up in that conversation and I do believe the organization values him but right this season is a Lavoie vs Pederson discussion not a Lavoie vs Brown/Holloway/Foegele on the second line. I don’t think that’s wrong necessarily but I do believe Lavoie won’t be given the same amount of leeway Holloway got last season
You mention players on the roster in January – Lavoie didn’t start playing like an NHL option until late December. I would think that he would need to have more than a couple of weeks of plus AHL play prior to the call-up – in particular given he had NEVER been consistent as a pro, only heaters.
Why would Lavoie be in the conversation for 4C? He’s a winger. He hasn’t played a single game at center as a pro and was almost exclusively a winger in junior (he did fill in at center for a stretch of games when there was injuries but he was a winger).
I know hockeydb lists him as a C and its simply wrong.
Is Lavoie in the conversation for 2RW this year or is it Lavoie vs Pederson to be 13F?
Is Lavoie in the conversation to be 2RW next year or do Bourgault/Holloway strike you as the players who they see there?
I don’t think not recalling Lavoie was necessarily the wrong move but I don’t see how they could think he’s a likely second liner when they aren’t even sure he’ll make the team this year.
Lavoie’s cap hit was $925K last year while Demers was at league min – and eligible for the emergency recall. Not sure they had room for Lavoie on the cap (not to mention it was Ceci who was on leave for his child, not a forward).
Holloway made 925K last year and had 9 points in 51 games. If they wanted to mix things up and see Lavoie instead, they would have.
They have Holloway (and Bourgault) ahead of Lavoie. They aren’t wrong but Lavoie isn’t their B option for 2RW but their B option for 4RW. They could have done it if they really wanted to. They just didn’t really want to.
I haven’t seen anyone say it but the handling of Lavoie (0 NHL games in 3 years while James Hamblin got 10 last year) suggests they have less faith in him and the role he’s able to play while Bourgault is not only a first rounder but the highest draft pick still in the system
May I ask what you mean by his handling?
I mean, his play in the AHL over the course of a season and almost a half didn’t warrant an NHL consideration.
It wasn’t until December of last season where he started to play like an NHL option, and consistently.
By that time, the Oilers were starting to be the hottest team in the league, over a course of a few months, and chasing first place in the division and conference while Lavoie was playing in a playoff race in Bako.
That just isn’t true. Lavoie played well in the previous season, including another hot streak around Christmas. He was injured and it took time to get rolling in 2022-23. However, the player we saw down the stretch in 2021-22’s best games was the man we saw in his best 2023-24 moments.
The only difference, for me, is Lavoie added a physical edge and a mean streak.
He’s ready and he didn’t turn it on in the last 25-30 games. It was building from December 2021 imo.
My post said it was the first time he played like and NHL player, and consistently.
I stand by that opinion.
The player had some good stretches as a Condor prior to the last 3/5 of last season but they always seemed to be heaters and followed by inconsistent and, sometimes, all but invisible play.
Are you suggesting that his play in the AHL warranted call-up consideration at any time before the last couple of months of this past season?
I don’t think Lavoie ends up 2nd in team scoring for Bakersfield without having done some things right for most of the season. That NHL games were given to Malone, Hamblin, and Benson last year (plus Kostin called up after 4 points in 9 games) added to 2021-22 where Marody, Benson, Malone & Griffith got games but not Lavoie strikes me as a solid indication that the team does not see Lavoie as a second line right winger at this time. Whether he deserves a call-up is irrelevant to how he has been perceived. If the Oilers thought he could play high in the lineup, they would have given him at least a game at some point. If they view him as bottom six, why waste the callup?
That NHL games were given to Malone, Hamblin, and Benson last year (plus Kostin called up after 4 points in 9 games) added to 2021-22 where Marody, Benson, Malone & Griffith got games but not Lavoie strikes me as a solid indication that the team does not see Lavoie as a second line right winger at this time.
I, for one, was very disappointed that Lavoie didn’t get a call up.
When you put it the way you have, I can see how you’re reached that conclusion. Definitely disappointing.
Yeah, it’s not just that he didn’t get called up but that we’ve had 2RW as an issue for awhile now and the team not calling him up for even a game would seem to indicate they don’t see him there. He could play his way into the conversation but that’s not how they’ve seen him so far.
Yeah, I would say Yamamoto did a bit more to put himself in that position but at some point the team should have wanted to try a 6′ 4″ winger who can score and hit for a game or two.
Ken Holland wasn’t GM when Yamamoto was a kid. He was GM when they didn’t give him training camp and sent him to the AHL with no chance to shine before he hit Bakersfield. Recalled him right at the end of December. Holland slow-plays prospects.
Yamamoto was an elite scoring chance creation machine in the AHL during that season and got called up at new years after 3 months of high end play.
Lavoie didn’t start his high end play until December and, after he had a few months of established high end play, the the NHL team was straight fire and on a run to the division/conference title.
Lavoie hadn’t earned a call up with his play until in to the 2023 calendar year – I don’t understand the relevance of listing players that were called up when Lavoie clearly wasn’t ready.
Should we talk about how Bourgault is perceived for not getting a call up this past season?
I’m not saying that he was ready or that he should have been called up. I’m simply stating how the team perceives him now and in relation to Bourgault.
I’m only saying that given the players who were called up, the Oilers do not see Lavoie as a top-six option for the team.
I can’t agree that his not being called up during the course of the last two seasons shows how the org perceives him.
2021/22 is irrelevant – he was a rookie pro and nowhere near NHL ready.
He didn’t even get started this past season until a month in, after having rehabbed from major knee surgery in the summer and missing all of camp, etc.
He has some good stretches early but was clearly just getting up to speed at the AHL level when some others were called up. By the time he had impacted the AHL game in a way that an NHL call-up could have been an option, well, not only was there no cap space and they’d have to waive an NHL roster player, but the team was on fire and trying to win a division title.
I think that if the team you’re on keeps Devin Shore around and has players at 2RW going 5 games without a point but they don’t call you up while you’re scoring 25G in the AHL, they don’t see you as a top-six option.
Oh yeah. Absolutely. If Lavoie had been healthy, and able to make an impression on Woodcroft at last year’s training camp/preseason, I expect he would have been recalled ahead of some Condors who did get the opportunity.
This is true. Yamamoto and Foegele both had injury worries in training camp, Yamamoto, Foegele, Kane, McLeod, Holloway and Kostin missed games due to injury. Bakersfield didn’t really have a “scoring winger” to call up that was really ahead of Lavoie by mid season.
I think the Oilers were trying to construct a contract that would be more likely to slip through waivers (big AHL component). Lavoie didn’t bite. Betting on himself is fine – but if he doesn’t light it up early in TC – he might find himself playing pre-season games with scrubs and getting few opportunities to shine. Clearing waivers at the end of camp, heading back to Bako and making $70,000 might be an expensive pill to swallow.
What’s his comparable – Maroon? Even this low bar shows Lavoie’s AHL stats to be far inferior. Good luck to the guy but this could really back-fire on him if he fails to impress in TC and clears waivers.
True but he’s made a pretty poor risk-reward decision. Upside of what he did was less than $100,000 if he makes the team. Downside of what he supposedly rejected might be closer to $200,000 if he is sent to the minors. If he wants out then a league minimum $775,000 contract is more attractive on waivers to everyone than $874,000. Not sure I understand his reasoning.
Sure, he’d be great for Bako and competing with Niemo and Noel H. and B. Gleason and P. Kemp for an injury call up but you don’t suggest he’d be a legit candidate for an opening night roster spot (presuming team health), right?
Matt Murray – fine to dress as back-up for the playoffs but, all of a sudden, come July, not healthy enough for at least the first 10 games and 3 weeks of the regular season in October…….
Remember when the NHL expressed that they would be looking into/investigating LTIR placements going forward…..?
Mike Smith and Duncan Keith say hi. The NHL only really cares if these players suddenly end up on a playoff roster. Pre-season/early regular season isn’t a big worry to them. Especially if those players don’t end up playing at all. The thing to remember about the cap is that it isn’t intended to be punitive but is a financial agreement between the league and players about who can use how much money from which pot and assuring that the owners and players split revenue evenly. The NHL isn’t concerned here because Murray’s money comes out of the player’s side regardless and the NHLPA doesn’t want injured players to be subject to buyouts.
Duncan Keith retired – didn’t go on LTIR – gave up the last year of his contract.
From various accounts, Mike Smith’s body was really effed up. Elliotte Friedman was on record after last year’s playoffs saying he could believe he was able to play and we wouldn’t believe how effed up his body was/is.
That is true of Duncan Keith. I forgot he had retired.
I’d be very surprised if Matt Murray isn’t really injured though. If he sits out the whole year as a favour to the Maple Leafs, he’d be basically done the next year. He needs to play to show if he still can and get his next contract.
Lavoie shoots the puck. How many Oiler forwards are shoot first ask questions later? And he is arriving with a black hat and a chip on his shoulder, and is ready to piss all over Woodcroft’s lawn.
He should make the team on merit with the current competition.
I don’t understand why he has a black hat or a chip on his shoulder – he’s just a prospect that has needed real AHL time, was given that opportunity, and now is in the conversation for a depth roster spot.
New for The Athletic: The final impact player of the Connor McDavid era will post his first big offensive season in 2023-24. How many points is reasonable for Evan Bouchard?
https://theathletic.com/4719314/2023/07/26/oilers-evan-bouchard-stats-points/
Watching Holland vs US soccer. Reminds me of my issues with the Canadian team and the Oilers. Dutch are trying to play a tidy passive game and it worked until somehow even with massive possession they came into the second half more tired than the US. Fitness is a thing. To beat the best you have to train as hard, or harder. Everyone
And also with apparently no offensive plan. 2/3 of the field, great. The important 1/3 no attack. The US is so much more aggressive and strategic in the scoring areas. I strongly dislike the US team because they are dirty and cheap, but they can push effectively when needed
Canada’s team has of course won gold but really lack a high end attack. Also not nearly the ball control I see in this game, outside of a few. It relies too much on individual skills of Christine and some hopefuls, and a lucky bounce. Which I also feel about the Oilers offensive strategy. Connor and sometimes Leon, and bounces. Which is very Flattopish
Mattias Ekholm, well his wife, had their baby.
His name…… Leon!
I predict Drai signs an extension on his namesake’s birthday next year.
/Cam Robinson/
@Hockey_Robinson
This year’s Calder race has the chance to be an all-timer
• Connor Bedard
• Logan Cooley
• Adam Fantilli
• Devon Levi
• Brandt Clarke
• Luke Hughes
• Matthew Knies
• David Jiricek
• Shane Wright
• Simon Edvinsson
• Dustin Wolf
• William Eklund
• Olen Zellweger
So Bedard Fantilli and Cooley
Yeah the list makes it seem like 4 gp, 0 pts with Columbus and 55gp, 38 pts in the AHL David Jiricek will be in the race to win a Calder which.. well.. stranger things have happened but… it won’t be much of a race for a lot of those names.
A big right shot defenseman who puts up 38 points in 55 games in the AHL in his 18 year old season is very impressive.
Might want to refer to what Bouchard was doing at 18.
At the same age and point in their career (draft +1), Bouchard scored an NHLe of 31 points in the regular season in the OHL (the only league he could play in outside the NHL), compared to the 27 NHLe of Jiricek’s.
While Columbus was a tire fire last season, finishing 1 whole point above last place, with Severson, Gudbranson, Peeke and Boqvist on RD, he may not get much of a shot.
In his 19 year old season in the AHL, Bouchard scored 36 points in the AHL and did not have to adapt to a new culture, language and a bigger ice surface.
Jiricek played against adults the last 2 years before he made it to the AHL so I think he had an advantage there. He played 4 games with no points in the NHL as an 18 year old where Bouchard played 7 games with one goal in the NHL and 8 games with 8 points in the AHL playoffs. I’d say Bouchard was moderately ahead of Jiricek at the same age. Expecting him to outplay Bedard is a longshot. Fanduel has him at +3200 to win with Bedard at -110. He’d definitely have to outplay Luke Hughes which seems unlikely as Hughes has 4 points in 5 games played last season and seems to be ahead of Jiricek.
Points separating those two defencemen from the top scorer on their respective AHL teams.
Bouchard- 5
Jiricek- 33……….
Absolutely meaningless stat.
Wrong.
Only in small samples. Over time it compares well enough for use
Typical – move the goal posts again! Look you were off about their 18 year old seasons. Does it really matter now. You just look desperate.
Well, you are easily impressed by anyone who’s not an Oiler or Oiler prospect so there’s that.
Capfriendly’s current roster has Pederson, Lavoie and Niemo on it and no Borberg with 5,609,208 of cap space.
I think, for this exercise, you remove those three and add Broberg which gives the Oilers $7,157,500 of cap space with 18 players and the need to add: McLeod, Broberg and 12F.
The Oilers need to get McLeod/Bouch done at $6,382,500 and they can add a league min 12F, be it Pederson or an external signing.
The Oilers would need to get McLeod/Bouch done at $6,283,375 if they want Lavoie at 12F.
With McLeod trending towards $2.25MM or higher in arb and Bouch rumored to be around $4MM, that $100K has a real chance to actually preclude Lavoie’s spot on the opening roster.
You have chosen Lavoie’s acceptance of his QO as your personal crusade.
Don’t stop – keep the momentum up. Don’t ever let anyone forget!
All I did was post facts on the cap situation.
I did the calculations with zero intent regarding Lavoie but to ascertain how much room there will be for the 12F.
As it turns outs, to my surprise, signing those two at $6.5MM doesn’t even leave enough for a 12F at league min.
Everything in the post is prudent – unless my calculations were off.
Pedantic. Very very pedantic.
Lavoie could actually make the team several ways. Holloway is a 925k cap hit, Ryan 900k, Janmark 1M, Broberg 864k. If Lavoie plays his way onto the team (and better/even to any of those 4),the Oilers will have the ability to make room for the extra 100k
Holloway and Broberg need to be on the opening roster so that their performance bonuses don’t hit the cap upon recall – not to mention, well, its tough to imagine either of them not being on the team on merit.
I believe that only applies to when they set LTIR. https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/answers/performance-bonuses-ltir
Since saying last week he’s not worried about it, he’s posted every.. single.. day… about Lavoie’s contract.
I thought LTs response was funny then and its outright hilarious now.
Reminds me of the Crusade Against Malone from years past.
I don’t intend to be rude, but I am kind of curious why do you tend to repeat yourself so often in your posts? There seems to be one topic you focus in on and mention daily until something new captures your attention.
Again, I’m asking out of curiosity, not to be a jerk.
The post you are responding to set out the factual cap sutation and how much cap space the Oilers will have for a 12F as it relates to the two RFA signings.
I have never posted that before – I just did the calculations right before that post.
Of note, all the regular posters post their opinions on the team many, many, many times – repeating themselves.
I’m pretty sure we all know Godot’s views on where Broberg should play and on why Lavoie signed for more. We know what Cowboy Bill thought of Yamamoto, etc., etc., etc.
The Irish Times
@IrishTimes
·
34m
Sinead O’Connor, acclaimed Dublin singer, dies aged 56
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UIklk1gHbuQ
Kingdom of Rain from The The – Mind Bomb 1989
Matt Johnson with Sinead
Johnny Marr on guitar
Amazing.
Love that album
Happy 80th birthday, Mick.
I lost a lot of respect for Tippett and his to refusal to play Bouchard. I was glad when Tippett got canned. This will not be forgotten by Bouchard I’m sure Holland had a hand in this as well. What was done to Bouchard is not the way to treat your highest pedigree drafted D-man since Coffey.
Holland likely won’t care but the Bouchard situation is playing out in much the same way the Nurse contract snafus led to him having one of the worst contracts in the league.
https://theathletic.com/4690343/2023/07/26/nhl-worst-contracts-jones-parayko-huberdeau/?source=user_shared_article
Well, 2 x $3.2M for Bouchard this summer, 2 x $5.6M in 2025, followed by 8 x $9.25M in 2027 would seem pretty ideal for the team, would it not?
I’d take that in a heartbeat and twice on Sunday’s.
Might work well for the team although paying a player huge dollars through his declining years to age 36 has proven to be a very risky proposition over and over.
And, of course, this assumes Bouchard is amenable to forgoing millions of dollars over the next 4 years to subsidize the salaries of others.
His closest comparable is Noah Dobson who already has one year @ $4 million in the bank with only 2 more seasons and should easily surpass the $5.6 million you earmarked for Bouchard’s third deal.
Dobson banks $12 million over the same period that you would be paying Bouchard less than $8 million.
Why would Bouchard agree to this?
Well that’s quite the inversion.
It’s almost as though you’re now arguing that the bridge deals followed by a big payday were a snafu for Nurse rather than the team.
He was earning far less than his peers back in 2019, after all.
That’s precisely the problem for the team but there is no guarantee that whomever is the GM at the time will overpay him to the extent that Nurse is overpaid..in fact it’s more unlikely than not.
The best players increasingly are paid well for their prime years which Bouchard is now entering but poor cap management makes that impossible in his case and the Nurse contract is a big part of the problem.
So… there isn’t really much to be concerned about with Bouchard?
I would be concerned that he will inisis on being paid full market value if I were you.
Considering the cap has gone up since Dobson signed for $4 million and Dobson is a year closer to his next contract, Bouchard should be looking at $4.5 million minimum but you think he should take $3.2 million for 2 years and fall even further behind.
I don’t think any reasonable interpretation of JP’s post has him thinking Bouchard should take $3.2 million. He merely responded to your post about that deal being possible and said it would be good for the team. And you’re that last person JP should take advice on about what he should be concerned about.
The worry isn’t Bouchard or his agent, the worry is Holland. He is tough on entry contracts (Bear, McLeod) but isn’t strong once a sliver of daylight enters the room.
So, if I’m guessing, McLeod will come in around $2.2 million (sliver of daylight) and then Holland tries to squeeze Bouchard. Bear didn’t come to camp until late, McLeod signed the day he arrived at camp.
Bouchard has more power than the ordinary player in his position. I wish the Oilers had a full blown front office.
Holland, in my opinion, has done well as Oilers general manager. He has always had a solid to excellent amateur scouting staff and the pro group is showing much better than Archie Henderson (I know, low bar).
The contract negotiations that involve some power on the other side tend to be a sticky wicket in Edmonton.
I think their are a number of instances to say that Holland doesn’t always comes out on the short end if he doesn’t have the upper hand. Nugent Hopkins @5 million x 8 was a significant bargain the day it was signed. Getting Kane to re-sign for 4 x 5.125 was a very good deal. Hyman at 7 x $5.5 million was a good deal. For Yamamoto and Puljujarvi, he didn’t end up paying them more than what their prior years’ results would have gotten them in an arbitration awards. If he and McLeod go all the way through arbitration, McLeod will be getting paid “the market” for his services.
Yeah, Redbird62 covered much of this. There’s no need to put words in my mouth. You mentioned the Nurse snafu as it relates to Bouchard, and I said that would actually be a really solid outcome.
And if I’m understanding this correctly, 2nd pairing defenseman Evan Bouchard should be getting paid at least 15% more than 1st pairing defenseman K’Andre Miller and elite modern defenseman Bowen Byram? Oh my.
Did you notice he also used the phrase “the best players” when referring to Bouchard? He is basically saying the Oilers should have been able to lock up Bouchard at 8 x a big number because that’s what good teams do with players like him. Because they can’t, he says they have screwed up. But we know that if the Oilers had the space and did lock up Bouchard to 8 x a big number, HH would be arguing that’s the dumbest use of cap space and that Bouchard is not worth it. Being anti-Oiler or anti-Oiler fans is pretty much the only thing he is consistent about.
Yup, this is a good illustration of how difficult it is to argue both sides of the same argument simultaneously.
‘Because they can’t’ is relative. They can’t if they remain betrothed to a winger that had a decent playoffs (but only 3 points) that was healthy scratched during the season making nearly 3M and a RD they use first pair that had one decent stretch and otherwise has been shown by every deeper look I’ve seen to be over his head
This outlook is going to cost depth in the future. Foegele and Ceci are not going to be the reason the Oilers win the Cup, there are many players at least that good that are cheaper, some already on the roster
You’re arguing with HH’s logic, not mine. He is the one that said “poor cap management makes that impossible in his case”.
I was only making a comment based on they can’t.
Byram is almost 2 years younger than Bouchard and has missed numerous games due to injury and yet is already being paid more than you think Bouchard should accept.
Again, you know that I did not say Bouchard should accept $3.2M.
I think I prefered the “Bouchard is not an NHL player and Ty Smith passed him like a house on the road” HH instead of this new “Oilers mishandled their star defenseman and he is going to demand a lot of money because he is envious of his draft cohort’s earnings” HH
Exactly. The narrative of the moment.
No mention of the Stars contract eh? No mention ofSeguin higher up the craptacular batting order? Doughty with an honorable mention at the bottom too but he was up in tier just last year so lets call it a technical adjustment this year. Weird.
Too bad. Neither of those deals stopped Blake and Nill from crapping the bed on the PLD, Kopitar and Hinze deals lol. On the plus side at least Hinze cracked 30 goals before he got The Gold Bar treatment. Blake tripped over himself to pay PLD in full. Still Hinze is on the wrong side of the age curve for that sort of money and an NMC for 8 years.
Anchor Contracts if I ever did see em.
With Trevling out sandbagging the Leafs and the Avs rolling out a truly terrifying line of Drouin-RyJo-Nichuskin, its so awesome when all your comp cuts off their noses right in front of you.
I presume that Bouchard won’t forget the work Holland did to get him a place to play in Sweden during the pandemic to continue his develop, see part of the work and make a bit of money.
Sebastian Aho 8X$9.75 million in Carolina.
While Jesse will be lucky to get a one-year deal for a Million.
It would be really funny if they accidentally gave all that money to the wrong Sebastian Aho….
Eric Tulsky.
Quite amused by how the Hurricanes traded Anthony D’Angelo to Philadelphia for THREE draft picks and then reaquired him as a free agent.
Did Eric Tulsky finally get a GM gig?
AGM.
He is intimately involved in pro player transactions.
Darren Yorke is also AGM, and Aaron Schartz is Director of Hockey operations responsible for all contract negotiations among other things. I guess they and Don Waddell just sit around twiddling their thumbs while Tulsky carries the mail, eh?
No doubt Tulsky has input, but Waddell makes the final decisions. And where did Waddell get his start in NHL managing – as an AGM to Holland in ’97/98.
I recently heard that he was the guy behind the Brendan Lemieux signing. 😎
The trade was awesome, but I don’t expect D’Angelo’s new contract to turn out any better than his previous contracts. It’s only one year so easy to move on, but seems like a big waste of time.
I wonder what it’s like to have management like that?
I think we can add Grubbe to this group – if we are including rookie pros graduating from junior that have all but no real shot at the NHL this season, like Petrov, I think Grubbe deserves a mention.
Of course, Grubbe doesn’t have near the ceiling of a Petrov who COULD be a legit top line goal scoring winger if it all pops for him (unlikely but that’s the ceiling) and Grubbe likely tops out at a 3C if he pops.
I’m going to be cheering for Copponi to “make it” – I think he’s got more of a chance than the likes of Maatta.
Coming in to camp he’s clearly the most “NHL-ready” and there is a clear roster spot (only 11 locks on forward). Without another signing, he’s got to have the inside track on 12F over Pederson (right shot center abilities aside).
Important season for him as a second year pro. I expect him to be an impact player in the AHL, all situations and impact in all situations and game states – real chance for a recall later in the season.
Skating, of course, remains the issue for Kemp but its the ONLY issue for me. Of course, its one skill that often precludes a player from the NHL. I think he could play NHL games this season. Hoefenmayer too, there is something about him that intrigues me – maybe its the fact the he’s coming from the Leafs org.
I don’t understand the Grubbe trade. While it was only a 5th round pick, what was the point?
Grubbe’s a long to maybe make it as a 4c in the NHL one day. Fourth line centres are available for free every year, why would Holland spend a 5th to acquire a guy who might make it as a 4c when he’s retired?
There’s the argument that the Oilers need a centre in Bakersfield for developing wingers, but I ca’t buy that you need to spend draft capital for an AHL centre.
I’m with you, but here’s the part I also don’t understand.
John Marino was on track to be a sure-fire NHL defenseman, but he wouldn’t sign with the Oilers after Chiarelli left, so all we could get was a sixth round pick.
Now with Grubbe, my understanding which could be wrong, was that New York wasn’t going to offer him a contract, so Holland swooped in and offered a 5th round pick, for a guy who as you say could one day make it, potentially, as a 4rth line centre.
How was Grubbe worth a fifth if Holland could only get a 6th for a far better prospect in Marino?
With Marino, if the Oilers signing rights had lapsed, Marino becomes a free agent and can sign with anyone including the Penguins, so they would have still had a shot at him. They gave up a 6th for the right to negotiate with him a little before other teams. If Holland had tried to get more, the Penguins could have waited.
For Grubbe, if the Rangers signing rights lapsed, Grubbe goes back into the draft. He would not have been a free agent available to the Oilers. Only a team that traded for his rights had a shot to sign him exclusively. Getting that period to talk to Grubbe before the end of the signing rights period was considerably more important and thus worth a higher pick.
And Grubbe was a 3rd round pick, only 20 years old, whose stock has risen based on his last year performance. A little premature to say his absolute upside is a 4th line center.
There are some differences as you point out with the draft eligibility. Still, it seems like a bit of a premium paid for a guy the Rangers didn’t want.
His offence looks awfully shy to me. He was half a point per game in his draft plus one, while being a hair over a point per game, in the WHL, in his draft plus two. He only played five games in his draft year.
Ryder Korczak, the Rangers next pick in the same round of that draft got a contract. He had 1.16 ppg in his draft plus one and 1.44 pog in his draft plus two, both in the WHL.
Unless Grubbe has boots like Ryan McLeod, I think it would be quite a feat for a guy who didn’t see a ppg until his draft plus 2 in the WHL, to make it as a top nine player.
Until his signing rights expired, the Rangers had an asset, since those rights were the only way to negotiate and sign Grubbe before he goes back into the draft, otherwise the only access to his rights were through the draft. It is possible one or two other teams were also looking at a chance to be able to sign Grubbe before he went back into the draft so that a 6th or 7th rounder wasn’t going to get it done.
If the 5th rounder was the price it was going to take, Holland asks himself do I take Grubbe, sign him (and he probably had a good idea he would get him to sign) or let him go to another team or back into the draft and keep the 5th rounder. I doubt that Grubbe would fall all the way to the 5th round in the draft, since obviously if he did, Holland could draft him then, and he’d be in the exact same spot as he is now.
It is not unreasonable right now to say that Grubbe has a better shot of playing in the NHL anytime in the next 3 to 4 seasons than a player like Rasmus Larsson, who the Rangers took with the pick, or most of the other 5th rounders. He is ahead of all those 5th rounders in age already and has declined since being taken as a 3rd rounder. And if the Oilers believe a decent likelihood of a 4th line player, that’s better than a random 5th rounder who has about a 10% chance of playing in the NHL at all.
To trade draft capital for a player that has limited upside, requires development, and there’s still quite a reasonable amount of uncertainty if he’ll ever play in the NHL, is not a strategy that I would endorse.
You can find better players that are closer to being NHL ready on waivers every year or sign a Lane Pedersen for league minimum. Or you can just trade for these players, ones that are already developed, for fairly low cost.
I would rather use my picks on lottery tickets looking for Mark Stones and Johnny Gaudreaus.
Grubbe is only closer to the NHL than Rasmus Larsson by virtue of being older, but that’s a double-edged sword too, because older prospects are also closer to aging out into tweeners. Larsson was an overager though, so the age difference isn’t much.
Generally, most players that are traded before establishing themselves end up as tweeners. Even those with better pedigree than Grubbe with Colton Teubert, Griffin Reinhart, and Cooper Marody, as recent Oiler examples.
The main exception to this are probably some of the college players, particularly defensemen like Adam Fox, John Marino, and Justin Schultz.
Sakic had a run of finding some like Ryan Graves or Sam Girard though Girard was a notable prospect at the time.
Overall, I don’t recall too many of these types of trades except in instances where the player forces the issue like Adam Fox.
Why did Vegas trade a 2nd for Keegan Kolesar? I think that’s what the hope for Grubbe is.
In terms of 5th for Grubbe vs. 6th for Marino, yeah clearly that doesn’t look good. I don’t think it’s at all fair to say that Marino was “on track to be a sure-fire NHL defenseman” at the time though.
I sure don’t recall there being much hype about him on here, and there would have been better offers for him if he was a clear cut NHLer as he left college.
Yeah, the Kolesar trade was the first thing I thought of when I heard of the Grubbe trade.
Now, Kolesar had better overall numbers than Grubbe. Covid played a part, but Grubbe had a poor draft plus one, as well.
Kolesar also had more of a reputation for playing in the tough areas and the physical side of the game. Kolesar is also a good skater.
I have read some scouting reports about Grubbe being fairly rugged, but none that mentions anything about his skating.
Yes, Kolesar is probably a better skater. The only mention of Grubbe’s skating I recall is in an interview from Coach Sutter, so not an unbiased assessment. Not sure Kolesar’s skating was good enough to get mentions in scouting reports or not though.
Their production is quite similar aside from the draft +1 season. And they were both 3rd round picks in their respective drafts (Kolesar 69th, Grubbe 65th).
Kolesar
Draft -1 0.13 (points/game)
Draft — 0.59
Draft +1 0.95
Draft +2 1.11
Grubbe
Draft -1 0.51
Draft — 0.60 (only 5 games)
Draft +1 0.51
Draft +2 1.05
There’s really not a big gap in the two players statistically at the same age, or in how they were assessed on draft day.
You can make the argument that you’re getting a better sample size with Kolesar over his draft, draft +1, and draft + 2 seasons in terms of both consistency and number of games played.
Other than that, with similar numbers in the draft plus 2, it would come down to intangibles. Kolesar is a fast skater and tough customer.
5 years ago, if you asked me would I trade a second round pick for a guy who needed development to turn into a 4rth line winger, I would have emphatically said, “no.”
Now, someone like Kolesar might reshape my opinion. If you factor in that he’s big, fast, forechecks like a demon, fights, defensively decent, (edit)–> hits like a truck, scores a bit, and fairly cheap ($1.4m)–not to mention you’re getting his prime age years, that might change my current opinion.
I’m pretty sure that if Ken Holland had traded a 2nd for Kolesar after 54 26-34-60 final junior season you’d have been harsher than you are on a 5th for Grubbe, no matter what Kolesar’s intangibles were. Is that fair?
The other thing is whether it’s ever justifiable to pay a draft pick for a guy who projects as a 4th liner since those players are readily available. It seem like you’ve come around with the Kolesar example to not all 4th line players being equal, and some of them being being worth much more than a 5th.
Grubbe also has lots of intangibles. His scouting reports talk about his defense, but he’s also big and rugged, he was a captain of a WHL team at age 17, and I don’t think any of his scouting reports have mentioned him being a poor skater.
If you can acknowledge that Kolesar has real value I just don’t see how you can reasonably peg Grubbe as a player who couldn’t be worth a 5th round pick.
I agree with you here that a fifth is reasonable for Grubbe.
Given how often (every year) over the last 20 years I’ve seen comments saying we need a “Big, Right-Shot, Fourth-Line Centre, who can win faceoffs and kill Penalties” I’d say a 5th round pick is worth the risk. For context, there is exactly one player drafted in the fifth round from 2016-now that has played 200+ games, Yegor Sharangovich. A fifth really isn’t that much to give up and the Oilers could really use a defensive centre they can stash in the minors and recall when needed for the next 3-4 years.
It’s nice to wish for a Johnny Gaudreau but the reality is you usually end up with Kirill Maksimov.
Bruce Curlock has a nice post at Oilers Nation.
Curlock says that he has to work on his first step.
For whatever reason, his first step sure doesn’t look good in the video in that post. It looks like he was killing a penalty though, so maybe he was tired.
This random post also mentions skating as an issue.
Hopefully that’s something he’s working on with whomever helped Draisaitl after his first NHL season.
Kolesar was acquired for one reason and performed his role to perfection when he took out Tkachuk.
Well that’s one way to deal with it. Though they still need to clear an additional chunk of salary to get compliant.
————-
Elliotte Friedman@FriedgeHNIC·2m
As expected, TOR announces Matt Murray will be going on LTIR for the 2023-24 season.
With Murray and Muzzin on LTIR it looks like they are compliant. There is a quirk of LTIR that using it over the summer can create issues with maximizing the LTIR space so we might see a weird move or two prior to the season starting.
Where do you see them as compliant?
Capfriendly still shows them $2M+ over with 22 players. Robertson is on an injured list so his salary can be removed (either assigned or LTIRed) but they would still be $1.27M over with 22 players. They are closer than I thought, but they still can not get compliant by assigning 1 more player (for 21-man roster).
Yup. As things currently stand if the Leafs send their 3 lowest salaried players to the AHL they would be compliant with a cap surplus of $302,717 and a 20 man roster. Treliving has still more work to do.
Quite a bit of chatter they will move Jarnkok and his $2.1 million cap hit.
That would be a logical move but at what cost? The similar chatter here is that the Oilers would be most likely to move Foegele if they have to have cap room for Bouchard but, again, how many teams are interested and nobody is doing it for free when they know a GM is up against the wall – and Jarnkok has three more years at $2.1M in a league where similar players are still can’t get a gig for under a $1M.
Will be interesting to watch how it plays out.
Sorry, I read Capfriendly wrong.
They can get within 300k with a 21 man roster using all of their waiver exempt players or they could send down Lafferty and ice a 21 man roster. It’s not ideal for them but they are close enough to get compliant until someone else gets hurt real bad
Sort of. Sending down Lafferty still isn’t enough to ice 21 players (still $122k over).
They could get compliant by burying 2 NHL players though. Like Lafferty and Knies, or Lafferty and Timmins sent down, and one cheaper player to replace them.
They are in a bit worse place than the Oilers were last year when Janmark had to be waived to get compliant.
Yeah, slim pickings for rookies with a reasonable chance to play many games this season.
Lavoie is the only one who looks likely to be a regular or semi-regular, and there’s lots of question as to whether that will actually end up happening.
I do also think there’s a legitimate chance that Bourgault takes a step offensively and ends up as a regular in the 2nd half though. Not that I’m quite expecting it, but if he can push a point per game and continue to that responsible 2-way game there should be a spot for him. McLeod did just that and was an NHL regular by the end of his 2nd pro season.
The overall group looks like it will produce NHL talent, most just aren’t likely to make a big impact this season.
The guy I find intriguing is Matvey Petrov. He may be the next Miroslav Satan, who’s time with the Oil was too short. But yeah, it’s looking like they like Bourgault better than Lavoie.
Yes, Petrov is interesting for sure, though unlikely to get NHL games this season.
In terms of ‘liking’ Bourgault more than Lavoie, why? They didn’t give Lavoie a 1-way contract like many of us were expecting, but in hindsight that would have been a fairly unusual contract to give to a guy in his situation. Seems unnecessary to flip to ‘they like so and so better’ based on anything that’s transpired.
I just think they may be pissed off at Lavoie for taking his qualifying offer. They had a plan and he’s not playing ball. From what I’ve seen from Bourgault he has a good head on his shoulders.
Yeah, perhaps. I don’t know that we’ve seen anything from the current management that suggests they’re vindictive.
Petrov might have the highest ceiling of any current propsect – he has legit top line goal scoring winger potential – like 40 goal potential.
Don’t get me wrong, not saying that’s the reasonable expectation but he’s got the ceiling.
Can’t wait to see how he translates to pro.
I think Bourgault is the guy they have circled in case they end up with injuries to a scoring forward. I think he or Lavoie could have a 20g/40p pace in a short run but that the team sees Lavoie as bottom six and Bourgault as top six.
I think Bourgault needs to take a step scoring-wise before he’s in the conversation for a call-up. Though I think there is a real chance that could happen this season.
Yeah it’s possible you’re right, though I don’t see any reason the team would have made that sort of determination.
I’d assume Bourgault plays at least October and November in the AHL regardless of how he plays because that seems to be the way in the NHL for the most part. He did score 6 points in his first 7 games last year before falling off so his true role/ability has yet to be determined.
I haven’t seen anyone say it but the handling of Lavoie (0 NHL games in 3 years while James Hamblin got 10 last year) suggests they have less faith in him and the role he’s able to play while Bourgault is not only a first rounder but the highest draft pick still in the system.
Obviously, their play will determine where they end up but that’s just my suspicion. 2024-25 has Foegele, Brown and Janmark becoming free agents and Bourgault/Lavoie/Tulio could be good/cheap season opening replacements.
Yes I agree with most of that.
But IMO this just isn’t a tell. The reason Lavoie didn’t get a single game on his ELC is because the first time he looked like he should have was about the middle of his 3rd season.
And when a player has the lightbulb go on you want (I would, anyway) to be sure that it stays on for a time before you accept it as the new normal. It was only around the deadline (~30 games of being ‘on’) before I would have considered Lavoie for a recall based on sustained strong play, and as we know making roster moves last season wasn’t exactly trivial.
If this was the Oilers of 2018 Lavoie no doubt would have gotten some games at the end of the season.
I think if you look at the Oilers roster and the struggle for a scoring 2RW where Yamamoto got hurt, JP traded, Bjugstad played there, signing Connor Brown etc. you would suspect if the Oilers saw Lavoie as a 2RW he would have gotten at least one shot at it. Did he deserve that shot? Not necessarily but that he was never tried in that role would seem to indicate the Oilers don’t see him playing there. He could play his way into that role but I suspect they are thinking bottom six player who can maybe score 10-15 goals.
As I said, I don’t think he’d played well enough for a sustained period until the very end of last season to warrant that being seen that way by the organization. He has now put 2/3 of an AHL season together where you might consider him for a spot in the top six.
If he comes in next season and continues to play like he did for the last 2/3 of last season then he might well get a chance in the top 6 if something opens up due to injury. But I just don’t see how you can read anything into him not getting a callup to potentially fill a role that he did not appear ready for when there was a need.
I think that the team that made space so that Jason Demers could play his 700th game would have made space for Lavoie to play a couple of games at 2RW instead of Bjugstad to see what they really had. I do think he can play his way into that spot but I really don’t see how the team could see him there and not want to try him out at least once.
I don’t think it was as easy to call him up and put him in the lineup as you’re suggesting. IIRC Demers was an emergency recall. Lavoie was too expensive to be an emergency recall. So another player would have to have been waived in order to give Lavoie his cup of coffee. I fail to see how giving Lavoie a few games down the stretch could warrant waiving an NHL regular on the midst of a playoff run. Hence, it makes no sense to me to read anything into him not getting a callup.
Devin Shore and his 850k kept going up and down. Evander Kane was on LTIR until January 17th. Yamamoto was on LTIR as until February 17th. James Hamblin and his 807.5K was on the roster in January. Ryan McLeod went on LTIR April 7th. If they had wanted to, they could have brought Lavoie up and played him. They chose not to. They did choose to call up James Hamblin. Twice. He’s not only waiver exempt this year but not even in the conversation for 4C this season. It does say something.
In the case of Hamblin, it says they needed a center. In 10 games, he took 42 faceoffs and won 27 of them. It doesn’t mean Lavoie not being called up was a great movie, but in the case of Hamblin I think the club was specifically looking for a pivot.
I think recalling Hamblin over Lavoie did make sense. I don’t have a big issue with the team not calling up Lavoie but I do think it shows the team sees Lavoie as competing for the Foegele/Janmark/Ryan role this year and the next as opposed to Bourgault/Holloway who are viewed by the org as possible top-six players. Lavoie could end up in that conversation and I do believe the organization values him but right this season is a Lavoie vs Pederson discussion not a Lavoie vs Brown/Holloway/Foegele on the second line. I don’t think that’s wrong necessarily but I do believe Lavoie won’t be given the same amount of leeway Holloway got last season
You mention players on the roster in January – Lavoie didn’t start playing like an NHL option until late December. I would think that he would need to have more than a couple of weeks of plus AHL play prior to the call-up – in particular given he had NEVER been consistent as a pro, only heaters.
Why would Lavoie be in the conversation for 4C? He’s a winger. He hasn’t played a single game at center as a pro and was almost exclusively a winger in junior (he did fill in at center for a stretch of games when there was injuries but he was a winger).
I know hockeydb lists him as a C and its simply wrong.
I guess my question is this:
Is Lavoie in the conversation for 2RW this year or is it Lavoie vs Pederson to be 13F?
Is Lavoie in the conversation to be 2RW next year or do Bourgault/Holloway strike you as the players who they see there?
I don’t think not recalling Lavoie was necessarily the wrong move but I don’t see how they could think he’s a likely second liner when they aren’t even sure he’ll make the team this year.
Lavoie’s cap hit was $925K last year while Demers was at league min – and eligible for the emergency recall. Not sure they had room for Lavoie on the cap (not to mention it was Ceci who was on leave for his child, not a forward).
Holloway made 925K last year and had 9 points in 51 games. If they wanted to mix things up and see Lavoie instead, they would have.
They have Holloway (and Bourgault) ahead of Lavoie. They aren’t wrong but Lavoie isn’t their B option for 2RW but their B option for 4RW. They could have done it if they really wanted to. They just didn’t really want to.
May I ask what you mean by his handling?
I mean, his play in the AHL over the course of a season and almost a half didn’t warrant an NHL consideration.
It wasn’t until December of last season where he started to play like an NHL option, and consistently.
By that time, the Oilers were starting to be the hottest team in the league, over a course of a few months, and chasing first place in the division and conference while Lavoie was playing in a playoff race in Bako.
That just isn’t true. Lavoie played well in the previous season, including another hot streak around Christmas. He was injured and it took time to get rolling in 2022-23. However, the player we saw down the stretch in 2021-22’s best games was the man we saw in his best 2023-24 moments.
The only difference, for me, is Lavoie added a physical edge and a mean streak.
He’s ready and he didn’t turn it on in the last 25-30 games. It was building from December 2021 imo.
My post said it was the first time he played like and NHL player, and consistently.
I stand by that opinion.
The player had some good stretches as a Condor prior to the last 3/5 of last season but they always seemed to be heaters and followed by inconsistent and, sometimes, all but invisible play.
Are you suggesting that his play in the AHL warranted call-up consideration at any time before the last couple of months of this past season?
I don’t think Lavoie ends up 2nd in team scoring for Bakersfield without having done some things right for most of the season. That NHL games were given to Malone, Hamblin, and Benson last year (plus Kostin called up after 4 points in 9 games) added to 2021-22 where Marody, Benson, Malone & Griffith got games but not Lavoie strikes me as a solid indication that the team does not see Lavoie as a second line right winger at this time. Whether he deserves a call-up is irrelevant to how he has been perceived. If the Oilers thought he could play high in the lineup, they would have given him at least a game at some point. If they view him as bottom six, why waste the callup?
I, for one, was very disappointed that Lavoie didn’t get a call up.
When you put it the way you have, I can see how you’re reached that conclusion. Definitely disappointing.
Yeah, it’s not just that he didn’t get called up but that we’ve had 2RW as an issue for awhile now and the team not calling him up for even a game would seem to indicate they don’t see him there. He could play his way into the conversation but that’s not how they’ve seen him so far.
It’s interesting to compare to Yamamoto.
Yamamoto was drafted at 22nd overall in the first round. Lavoie was projected to be a first round pick that fell.
Yamamoto got a cup of coffee in his draft plus 1 season. 9 gp 3 assists. To my recollection, he was playing with McDavid?
Then in his draft plus 2, Yamamoto put up 2 points in 17 games (NHL).
Then in his draft plus 3, Yamamoto put up 16 points in 23 games (0.7 PPG AHL), then got called for good.
Lavoie scores 0.74 PPG in the AHL in his draft plus 3 and not even a game.
Talk about sideburns.
Yeah, I would say Yamamoto did a bit more to put himself in that position but at some point the team should have wanted to try a 6′ 4″ winger who can score and hit for a game or two.
Ken Holland wasn’t GM when Yamamoto was a kid. He was GM when they didn’t give him training camp and sent him to the AHL with no chance to shine before he hit Bakersfield. Recalled him right at the end of December. Holland slow-plays prospects.
Yamamoto was an elite scoring chance creation machine in the AHL during that season and got called up at new years after 3 months of high end play.
Lavoie didn’t start his high end play until December and, after he had a few months of established high end play, the the NHL team was straight fire and on a run to the division/conference title.
Talk about made up sideburns.
Lavoie hadn’t earned a call up with his play until in to the 2023 calendar year – I don’t understand the relevance of listing players that were called up when Lavoie clearly wasn’t ready.
Should we talk about how Bourgault is perceived for not getting a call up this past season?
I’m not saying that he was ready or that he should have been called up. I’m simply stating how the team perceives him now and in relation to Bourgault.
I’m only saying that given the players who were called up, the Oilers do not see Lavoie as a top-six option for the team.
I can’t agree that his not being called up during the course of the last two seasons shows how the org perceives him.
2021/22 is irrelevant – he was a rookie pro and nowhere near NHL ready.
He didn’t even get started this past season until a month in, after having rehabbed from major knee surgery in the summer and missing all of camp, etc.
He has some good stretches early but was clearly just getting up to speed at the AHL level when some others were called up. By the time he had impacted the AHL game in a way that an NHL call-up could have been an option, well, not only was there no cap space and they’d have to waive an NHL roster player, but the team was on fire and trying to win a division title.
I think that if the team you’re on keeps Devin Shore around and has players at 2RW going 5 games without a point but they don’t call you up while you’re scoring 25G in the AHL, they don’t see you as a top-six option.
Oh yeah. Absolutely. If Lavoie had been healthy, and able to make an impression on Woodcroft at last year’s training camp/preseason, I expect he would have been recalled ahead of some Condors who did get the opportunity.
This is true. Yamamoto and Foegele both had injury worries in training camp, Yamamoto, Foegele, Kane, McLeod, Holloway and Kostin missed games due to injury. Bakersfield didn’t really have a “scoring winger” to call up that was really ahead of Lavoie by mid season.
I think the Oilers were trying to construct a contract that would be more likely to slip through waivers (big AHL component). Lavoie didn’t bite. Betting on himself is fine – but if he doesn’t light it up early in TC – he might find himself playing pre-season games with scrubs and getting few opportunities to shine. Clearing waivers at the end of camp, heading back to Bako and making $70,000 might be an expensive pill to swallow.
What’s his comparable – Maroon? Even this low bar shows Lavoie’s AHL stats to be far inferior. Good luck to the guy but this could really back-fire on him if he fails to impress in TC and clears waivers.
I don’t’ think that the AHL component has a big impact on his waiver claim likeliness.
Remember, a claiming team cannot send him to the AHL without further exposing him to waivers.
True but he’s made a pretty poor risk-reward decision. Upside of what he did was less than $100,000 if he makes the team. Downside of what he supposedly rejected might be closer to $200,000 if he is sent to the minors. If he wants out then a league minimum $775,000 contract is more attractive on waivers to everyone than $874,000. Not sure I understand his reasoning.
I agree 100% – it remains a very odd decision to me.
Here is hoping it doesn’t impact his making the roster – I want to see him in the NHL.
Cap is looking to be very tight though.
Yup, Bourgault doesn’t have a real chance out of camp but he has a real chance to kill the AHL (within reason) and earn a call-up.
He’ll need to kill it though as Holland does have lots of experienced/veteran options in Hamblin and Malone and the like.
I am hoping for a solid .8 P/G, with real top PK time (top two pairs) and PP time.
The opportunity is there for him if he pops.
Samorukov remains unsigned. Holland should make an offer, I still think he’s got potential.
Sure, he’d be great for Bako and competing with Niemo and Noel H. and B. Gleason and P. Kemp for an injury call up but you don’t suggest he’d be a legit candidate for an opening night roster spot (presuming team health), right?
No, I think he needs more seasoning in the AHL.
It’s going to be hard to make an impact as a rookie on a 21-man roster.
Then again, injuries …
Matt Murray – fine to dress as back-up for the playoffs but, all of a sudden, come July, not healthy enough for at least the first 10 games and 3 weeks of the regular season in October…….
Remember when the NHL expressed that they would be looking into/investigating LTIR placements going forward…..?
Mike Smith and Duncan Keith say hi. The NHL only really cares if these players suddenly end up on a playoff roster. Pre-season/early regular season isn’t a big worry to them. Especially if those players don’t end up playing at all. The thing to remember about the cap is that it isn’t intended to be punitive but is a financial agreement between the league and players about who can use how much money from which pot and assuring that the owners and players split revenue evenly. The NHL isn’t concerned here because Murray’s money comes out of the player’s side regardless and the NHLPA doesn’t want injured players to be subject to buyouts.
Duncan Keith retired – didn’t go on LTIR – gave up the last year of his contract.
From various accounts, Mike Smith’s body was really effed up. Elliotte Friedman was on record after last year’s playoffs saying he could believe he was able to play and we wouldn’t believe how effed up his body was/is.
That is true of Duncan Keith. I forgot he had retired.
I’d be very surprised if Matt Murray isn’t really injured though. If he sits out the whole year as a favour to the Maple Leafs, he’d be basically done the next year. He needs to play to show if he still can and get his next contract.
Lavoie shoots the puck. How many Oiler forwards are shoot first ask questions later? And he is arriving with a black hat and a chip on his shoulder, and is ready to piss all over Woodcroft’s lawn.
Well he’d better piss more than a drop or two in camp, or he may find himself pissing on lawns in Bakersfield instead.
He should make the team on merit with the current competition.
I don’t understand why he has a black hat or a chip on his shoulder – he’s just a prospect that has needed real AHL time, was given that opportunity, and now is in the conversation for a depth roster spot.