I track roster progress for the Oilers through late summer and all of training camp in two specific ways. “Riesen to Believe” lists all possible players known at the time and offers a percentage chance of each individual making the team. I also run “Certain” “Uncertain” and “Distant Bell” depth charts in a rotation with the Riesen list. I’m not sure we need either this year. The roster seems set.
The “Certain” list above is from September 17, 2015. The Oilers are more certain now than they were three weeks before opening night in 2015. Jordan Eberle didn’t make the opening night roster (injury), Andrew Ferrence was a scratch, Nikita Nikita got sent down. Not on the “certain” list but in the opening night lineup? Luke Gazdic, Griffin Reinhart, Anton Slepyshev and Anders Nilsson. Ference, Brandon Davidson and Rob Klinkhammer were the scratches.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
CERTAIN OILERS
I could put Mattias Janmark or Philip Broberg or even Dylan Holloway on the “uncertain” list but the cap impact of the Ryan McLeod and Evan Bouchard deals is not yet known. I’m not chasing maybes today, so we’re going to run it straight up. By all normal hockey wisdom, these 20 men are locks. It’s possible we see just one additional name, in fact, it’s quite possible.
UNCERTAIN OILERS
I can see most of these names making an appearance this coming season, but opening night? It’s a toss up. If I had to guess the final piece to move up? Lane Pederson. Running Markus Niemelainen over Philip Broberg saves some coin, but the difference in ability is significant. I don’t see it. Among wingers, I think we can rank them Lavoie, Caggiula, Griffith and McKegg (who is actually a center). James Hamblin would have moved down the depth chart if Noah Philp remained, so he’s just holding on to yesterday (underrated Ambrosia song) until Jayden Grubbe is ready.
DISTANT BELLS
The only players I see as being “possible” uncertain Oilers are Xavier Bourgault, Phil Kemp and Olivier Rodrigue. More likely, their time is a year from now. One final note: I’m not sure who will emerge from the three names listed here on left defense. We’ll have to wait and see, since all of them have yet to play a full season in the organization. I’m pulling for Hoefenmayer, it would be a nice story.
THERE’S NO ONE
There’s no one. I have written about all of the hopefuls over at The Athletic in the last few months. There are some interesting players. However, failing a trade or signing or (in preseason) an injury, the gap between Bourgault and “Uncertain” is real and the gap between being certain of Mattias Janmark and certain of Raphael Lavoie is not close. I think Lavoie is NHL-ready and believe he will make the team. Here’s how I would do it.
Folks, this is the way. You’re welcome.
New for The Athletic: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23.
https://theathletic.com/4723497/2023/07/28/oilers-scouting-stats-standings-2023/
Logan Cooley had quite the NCAA season. 39 22-38-60. NHLE 42. I think someone mentioned yesterday, but yeah he sure does look like one of the main Calder candidates.
I realize that Dylan Holloway had a very similar draft +1 season, though Covid shortened.
23 11-24-35. NHLE 42.
I’m not sure if that bodes poorly for Cooley or well for Holloway.
Cooley was 18 years old all last season and Holloway was 19 years old for his entire season (although I think Holloway was only about 6-months older give the Sept vs May birthdays).
Yeah looks like Holloway was about 7.5 months older in their respective seasons.
I was thinking earlier (not about Holloway/Cooley) about whether whether anyone has looked at birth date and long term NHL success.
We talk about early and late birthdays, but does it matter in the end?
I’ve read that the highest draft picks of each cohort have January birthdays.
Basically a function of receiving more development time than kids born later.
Malcolm Gladwell discussed it in his book “Outliers”. As you refer to, the premise is that the use of a minor hockey age cutoff in Canada of January 1 favours children born earlier in the year.
That is a great book.
How interesting, and thanks for the replies. I had time now to look and also found an academic paper that shows the same thing.
https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0057753
They looked at quarters of the year instead of months but found that especially in terms of getting drafted, players born in the 1st quarter had a big advantage, and that players born in the 4th quarter were under-drafted.
The interesting wrinkle was that the average players drafted in later quarters were actually more productive once they were drafted (hence calling it under-drafted). Overall, 1st quarter players played more career games and scored more points, but because so many more got drafted they are less successful on average than players born later.
I guess the take home is it is better to be born in January if you’re a hockey player (higher probability of being drafted and producing after that), but that among the pool of drafted players the 3rd and 4th quarter players turn out to have a bit higher probability of succeeding.
Interesting too is that neither ‘1st quarter is better’ or ‘4th quarter is better once drafted’ really fit with traditional early/late birthdays as they are usually applied in hockey related to draft eligibility (July/August early and October/Nov late).
Tarasenko to Ottawa for a year.
————–
Renaud Lavoie@renlavoietva
Vladimir Tarasenko 1 x 5M$ @Senators@TVASports
https://ottawa.ctvnews.ca/senators-sign-tarasenko-to-one-year-contract-1.6497456
He fired his agent after the first few days of Free Agency. Obviously misread the market.
True.
I wonder if $5M x 1 in Ottawa was what he was hoping for? 😉
John Shannon
@JShannonhl
·
2m
Senators announce that they have signed Vladimir Tarasenko to a one-year, $5M contract. The contract includes a full no-trade clause.
Woodguy
@Woodguy55
I miss TSN1260 but the upside is that CKUA is playing in the truck more often, and I run into gems like this I wouldn’t have heard otherwise:
Amen.
https://twitter.com/Woodguy55/status/1684693131160399873?s=20
Radio is good. CKUA is outstanding.
There is NOTHING like it.
Does anyone know if McLeod golfs? I’m thinking Kenny’s short game has deteriorated over the years and a few big presses on the back 9 could solve a host of problems
Logan Cooley changes his mind about returning to college and signs in Arizona.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/logan-cooley-signs-three-year-entry-level-deal-with-arizona-coyotes/
He was going back to college to play in college-sized arenas. While he’s still going to be playing home games in a college-sized arena, he’ll get paid for doing so, and burn off a year of his ELC.
Fully agreed a player of his calibre’s best interest should be burning off the cheap years so the Houston Yeehaws can give him a fat paycheque to sell tickets ASAP.
No player wants to be considered a bargain (Mackinnon still hates having that moniker all those years, Cup makes it more palatable). Moving his ELC down another year wouldve been great for Arizona.
Very good for the player as long as he’s accepting the team wont win anything in the near future imo. Probably not so bad when you’re 19.
Nicely done.
I presume you have McLeod and Bouchard on one-year deals at those cap hits?
I can’t imagine McLeod getting under $2MM in arb and I think its tending in the $2.25MM to $2.4MM range – he could sign before for a bit less and one year.
I’m not sure Bouchard comes in less than both Byram and Miller on a 2-year deal – he could come in less on a one year.
Yesterday Stauffer was adamant that Bouch was signing for 2.
Is the $2.25 to $2.4MM your view based on a 1 year or 2 year arb ruling? Its the Oilers choice if and when they get file their evidence/submission on August 2. A 1 year arb ruling is very likely to have a lower cap hit per season than a 2 year arb ruling. The Oilers considerations when making the term decision are very different than Chicago’s were for Kurashev.
Two years and I believe the team wants both player under 2 year deals.
My post specifically spoke to 1 vs. 2 year terms.
It didn’t specifically say that McLeod’s arb award would be 2 years though. You could have been implying the $2.25 was one year and the $2.4 was 2.
I agree the team would want both under 2 year deals and I am sure that is the kind of offer Holland is discussing with McLeod in advance of the hearing. But while he’d prefer 1 year over 2, Holland’s actions have made it abundantly clear that 23/24 is an incredibly important season, and a few hundred thousand dollars at this point are very important to that year. If he has to choose between McLeod or Bouchard at two years with the other at one, I think he chooses Bouchard for two. Bouchard would be a much bigger risk for a huge raise next season as things look right now. If it gets to arbitration, I think Holland picks one year.
Now even if he gets McLeod at one year through negotiations or the arb hearing, which saves him some cap $ for 23/24 or that he can use with Bouchard, he has no guarantee that he can get Bouchard to sign for 2 years at a $$ amount that meets both sides needs.
The only players I see as being “possible” uncertain Oilers are Xavier Bourgault, Phil Kemp and Olivier Rodrigue.
I agree that Bourgault and Kemp are distant bells for the opening night roster but I do think that both have a real chance to play NHL games during the season.
Kemp could be first call-up (but so could Niemo and so could Gleason and so could Noel H.) and, Bourgault, well, he very well could “Yamamoto” the AHL and get called up early in 2023, depending on NHL team healthy, struggle, etc.
If Bourgault isn’t on the opening night roster his $250,000 bonus counts against the cap on a recall I believe. That probably makes it difficult for him to get a callup outside of a significant injury to one of the top six.
That is only the case if the team is in LTIR (and it has to do with their LTIR bonus pool that gets set).
I have, mistakenly, posted about this as well – it was corrected in yesterday’s thread (I can’t remember who it was but I thank them).
This is correct. If the Oilers end up in LTIR space, they’ll have to find a way to get Bourgault on the roster to use his performance bonus as part of the pool.
https://puckpedia.com/salary-cap/answers/performance-bonuses-ltir
Ah, OK and thanks. I think I got that idea from you and missed the correction yesterday.
I agree with this. Subject to injury, the only real roster decision is 12F – be it Pederson, Lavoie or an external.
That’s really it.
I mean, I GUESS they could put Niemo on the roster over the Broberg but that would be some kind of shocker.
Same with not having Holloway on the roster – could happen but it would be a shocker.
I suspect you’re right and the team already has a favourite between Pederson and Lavoie or will go with 11F/21 players. If it isn’t this lineup, then we either have an injury (and Bourgault could make the roster for a day for LTIR space) or someone really explodes in training camp (remembering Holloway had 6 points in 6 games last pre-season and 9 points in the regular season)
Ya, Lavoie could pot 5 goals in 5 games in exhibition and it won’t really mean all that much.
It would solidify his spot on the opening night roster (unless they really don’t have cap room over a league min option) and give him the opportunity to prove it during the regular season, of course.
I am not sure I concur that a player playing well enough in camp earning himself a chance to then get to prove it in regular season games at the NHL level doesn’t really mean much. His first game on an NHL roster could probably be the biggest moment in Lavoie’s life to that point (at least hockey life – don’t know anything about his life away from hockey).
It’s significant from the team’s perspective as well, given, subject to cap limitations, Holland and Woodcroft want to ice the best roster they can for every game. So if he plays to a level in camp that indicates to the team he is one of the top 12 to 13 forwards for that task at the start of the season, that’s important. Sure he then has to step up and prove he continues to belong, but that task will seem a little different to him than getting sent back down and having to prove he should be called up.
A young prospect’s on-ice performance in exhibition season means very little vis-a-vis NHL readiness.
Lavoie could score 5 goals in the exhibition season and it wouldn’t mean he’s NHL ready, let alone top 6 ready.
We’ve seen it time and time and time again – great performances in exhibition season meaning very little come game 1.
Of course, Lavoie scoring 5 exhibition season goals likely gets him an opening night lineup spot and his first chance to truly prove he is NHL ready.
If they don’t believe on balance that he is probably ready or better than the next available alternative, he is not getting into an NHL game. None of this a guarantee that it will work since there are no guarantees. If he is back in the minors two months later or sooner (or claimed by someone else), it will because he didn’t perform up to their expectations, someone better returned from injury or someone else on the farm really popped.
Every player has to continually prove they are worthy of staying in the NHL(even players with NMC’s can have their contracts bought out). Obviously for prospects and tweeners that task is much harder and more urgent. Preseason games are only one piece of the overall puzzle, but part of the puzzle nonetheless. Kane can have a bad camp and will still be on the team. Foegele can probably have a bad camp. Last year, a poor camp resulted in Janmark spending some time in Bakersfield. A bad camp for Lavoie is a certain date with the waiver wire.
And for Lavoie, it won’t just be goals they will look at (since scoring has not been their issue), but everything he does on the ice when he gets his chance to be out there. Positioning, back checking, making the right reads and decisions when he has the puck etc. And if he happens to be fortunate to light the lamp, the team will evaluate all the conditions under which he scored as well.
I think it depends on the situation. I very much doubt that if Max Wanner came to camp and played better than Desharnais over 4 games that they would keep him and send out Vinny. There is more value to knowing that you have both of them and can call up Wanner if he continues to play lights out than it is to lose someone with an established level of ability based on a small sample. We’ve seen players really rip it up (looking at you Toni Rajala!) and not get called up due to waivers/established players blocking them. I do believe that some roster spots are available to be won but likely only by a few players. Pederson and Lavoie could be beat by Hamblin/Bourgault/Caggiula/Berglund for a spot but Janmark/Ryan/Foegele would be very unlikely to be waived.
I agree with depending on the situation. Brodziak is a cautionary tale about standing at the position of a prospect not showing NHL readiness by his play in camp and exhibition games. There’s many that play great in exhibition games and fall flat. There’s also some every year that turn great camps/exhibition games into a spot on the roster. Hopefully Lavoie does the latter.
I’m hoping that Lavoie has a great camp and earns the 12F spot.
I think he will.
Then, the real challenge of continuing to be a positive impact in regular season games start.
Here is hoping – Oilers could use a 6’4 right shot one-shot scorer with a bit of an edge at times.
So are your saying it’s better he gets 0 Goals and sucks ass. There’s always a surprise player on every team that has a great camp and preseason and is in the starting line-up for their respective team on opening night.
I have no idea what you think you are reading sometimes.
I’m saying that he could score 6 goals in the exhibition season and it doesn’t mean that he’s going to score a bunch of goals in the regular season.
We see it every season – we saw it with Holloway last season, we saw it with Cooper Marody, shit we saw it with Kailer Yamamoto who had like 10 points in exhibition in 2018/19.
Scoring in exhibition season does not mean a young player is ready for the NHL.
Of course, AND AS I’VE SAID, Lavoie could very well light up exhibition season, and I hope he does, and it will earn him a chance to actually prove he’s ready in real NHL regular season games.
Why do you hate Raphael Lavoie? 🙂
Because he accepted his QO and destroyed a narrative?
Bastid!
I presume you are joking?
I am cheering hard for Lavoie and hope he has a great camp and keeps it going during the regular season and never plays in the AHL again.
I’ve noted that I think his contract decision could do himself a disservice and I remain flumoxed by it – doesn’t mean I don’t like the player or that I’m not cheering for him.
My posts about exhibition game success meaning very little as far as NHL readiness having nothing to do with Lavoie and are not new – posted them last season and the season before, etc.
Petrov can get 5 points in the first week of exhibition and it wouldn’t mean anything regarding him being NHL ready.
We see it every exhibition season.
It goes the other way like I said some young players and l’m not talking the Ty Rattie’s of the League have a great camp and continue it on too the start of the year. It’s almost like your trying to jinx Lavoie
Not at all – its one step at a time and his next task is to earn a roster spot at camp. When he does that, the task will start to stick on the roster, then move up the lineup, etc.
I was excited when they drafted Lavoie a big guy that could drive to net as well as sit in the slot with a heavy shot. Big guys take longer to develop.
So how much does that $8,375 left over cap money increase to by the trade deadline? 🥸
Just joking, of course.
That roster has both McLeod & Bouchard coming in at cap hits lower than many are expecting. If that comes to pass it will signal some sacrifice by those two players for the good of the team and that would be a positive imo. It would also mark a 180 turn from the days when this team always had to overpay to get guys to play in northern Alberta.
Both Macleod & Bouchard are proven NHLer’s. And MacLeod already did the team a favor. Holland usually breaks the bank for those types. I figure they will both be paid handsomely.
Not sure why you think that. Of all the contracts signed by Holland on the current roster I count Nurse, Foegele, Campbell & Kulak as the only contracts that would qualify as overpays – and that, of course is not unanimous but Nurse in particular is often talked about that way. Campbell’s contract would be considered a disaster at less than half the price after last season so I wouldn’t consider it an overpay so much as a bad decision all around.
The other UFA signings of Hyman, Kane, Nuge, Ceci, Ryan, Janmark & now Brown are all pretty much value or better.
In other words a mixed bag.
Puljujarvi, Kassian & Yamo were overpays that were quickly disposed of while McLeod was made to pay for being low man on the totem pole last season.
The team is also finally considered a desirable place to play. Holland did that. Chiarelli couldn’t do that. McTavish couldn’t do that. That took some time and involved not losing players when there were no replacements available internally and getting players to sign was a struggle. Building something involves different decision making than maintaining does.
The two contracts this off season will be instructive as McLeod has arb rights, Bouchard is important to the team’s future and the team is broke as far as money they can spend. I think we learn more about Holland as a negotiator this summer.
Even Puljujarvi and Yamamoto possibly being considered over pays at the time they were signed can’t be fully put on Holland. Yamamoto was coming off a 21 goals, 41 points campaign. He’d have very likely gotten very close to or more than $3 million out of that performance had it gone to arbitration. Maybe Holland didn’t need to go 2 seasons, but if Yamamoto repeats that performance the $$ go up in the second year. And Jesse’s 2 season point performance was every bit as good as Yamamoto’s, so the arbitrator would have given him a similar award. The arbitrator can’t be provided or consider evidence that showed that Puljujarvi had a second half slump and wasn’t trending like his total, nor consider than Yamamoto was hurt in the playoffs and those impacts would linger throughout a good chunk of the next season.
The approximate level of those contracts were determined the minute Holland qualified them, setting them both to file for arbitration. Maybe he could have let one or both of them go UFA, but that was not at all realistic.
Agreed with all of this. I was just trying to point out the players that some here think of as overpays so listed all the ones that have been discussed as such here.
There is a belief by some on this board that Holland always over pays but I don’t buy it. Getting this team to the point where players want to sign or stay here cost a little bit here and there but as I tried to point out in my previous post there is a cost to building a brand that is higher than maintaining the brand.
To me that explains some of the early decisions. Holland couldn’t afford to let players walk when there was no internal replacement & guys didn’t want to come here. Things have changed now.
Good news. He only overpays half the time. Wonderful.
If I did my math correctly, it looks like LT’s roster comes in at $83,491,625, or with $8,375 of cap space with a 22 player roster. Of course it is predicated on Bouchard and McLeod coming it at a combined $5.6 million.
Put simply, the most Bouchard and McLeod’s combined salary can be for the Oilers to ice a 22 player roster, assuming no injuries that result in LTIR through camp and no larger salaries being traded out, is around $5.7 million leaving room for a league minimum salary in Lavoie’s place. It is also possible for Ryan and/or Janmark to be sent down to create a small amount of extra cap space, but that is less likely. Same goes for the likelihood that Holloway or Broberg won’t make the team out of camp.
Bouchard and McLeod can get a combined salary up to $6.3 million and could go with this roster, less Pederson (21 man roster with Lavoie), but at $6.4 million combined, it would need a salary like Lavoie’s out and Pederson’s in to keep 21 on the roster).
We and the Oilers are 11 days away from being to turn the McLeod variable into a concrete number (August 6 ruling date) or less than 7 if they settle (August 2 evidence submission deadline). Holland will have a much clearer understanding of what he has to work with after that date, and certainly more influence over the outcome than he does in an arbitration hearing (he obviously has some influence in the arbitration process since he can negotiate to avoid a hearing and/or present his best case at the hearing hoping to get a favorable ruling, but that ruling is still a wild card).
Can’t see them being able to sign Bouchard & Macleod for under $6M.
Bouchard will probably get $4M x 2 and MacLeod $2.5 M x 2. Who knows they might get creative? We could see a trade to dump some salary.
While I seemed to have done most of my math okay, I managed to add up LT’s salaries for Bouchard and McLeod incorrectly. He has them at a combined $5.5 million, not the $5.6 million I listed above. So at $5.6 million combined, Lavoie has to be swapped out for a league minimum to have 22 on the roster. Anything above that and getting to a 22 man roster gets even harder.
I love the idea of a grizzled vet for fourth line centre if the math works. Stall, Stastny types.
Seems the team is precisely one trade deadline away from making the final. Exciting year ahead!
For sure! No need to get that done early, waiting to around the trade deadline like you suggest is the time to make that move.
I might be in the minority here – I’ve been a bit out of the comments section for the past month to get a sense of the mood – but I’d be happy if all we did between now and the start of the season was get Bouch and McLeod signed and then head to camp. I’d likely try out Pedersen, Ryan and Holloway as the 4C for the first part of the year to see if anything rhymes that way.
When in doubt, roll 11-7.
Stastny has slow boots now. Not interested
Oilers should look at Pius Suter
Stastny always had slow boots. But now he has that grizzled vet who hasn’t won a Cup vibe going for him. His dad was a HOFer who also didn’t win a Cup, largely due to the Oilers dominance in that era.
That said, I agree – the Oilers should find a way to get Pius Suter under contract for next season.
And please explain- how do they afford him?
Really don’t know his price
He made $3,750,000 last season. I don’t think he is a viable option.
Not today but we always see one or two players who should have gotten a good contract without one come training camp. I doubt it’s Suter or Stastny and I also doubt it’s here but we’ll see some unexpectedly cheap deals in September.
I agree there will be deals in September but the list of names that can help a team with cup aspirations is short. I just think Suter will have better options.
Would you say he has better Suters after him?
No, but Gene would😜
I’d assume so as well. I think the only players looking at the Oilers as either a signed 12F or possible PTO are either established fourth-liners looking for a job or a vet looking for a last chance at a cup or an AHL gig but won’t be someone that really moves the needle for the team.
Barring an unforeseen trade I would agree. Money in, money out pretty much from here on.
“Folks, this is the way. You’re welcome.”
Thx
He’s probably right. That might be the way. But it sure would be nice if they could find an upgrade on Lane Pederson. I suspect he is the last resort, or they could just go 11/7 and use a 20-man roster, double shift Ryan MacLeod, he could be both 3rd & 4th line center, earn all that money he’s going to be making. It will be interesting to see who will be available for the Oil to sign to a PTO contract.
Why the hell would you double shift MacLeod when you have Connor and Leon in your lineup?
Evan Bouchard won’t go super nova but he’s going to have a helluva year.
https://theathletic.com/4719314/2023/07/26/oilers-evan-bouchard-stats-points/
Excellent read over at the Athletic as always.
What would constitute super nova?
I agree it’s not ‘reasonable’ but there is a chance he can collect 70 or 80 points.
Never say never 🙂
I’d be happier if he “only” got 50 points but improved his defensive play away from the puck to the point where the Ekholm-powered training wheels could come off, bump Ceci off the first pairing, and allow Broberg a turn with Ekholm.
When that happens the team will go super nova.
What do you mean about the training wheels? Bouchard has had very good success with Nurse in the past. They could easily break camp together.
Small sample size alert.
Both Bouchard and Nurse have had difficulty with positioning and staying ahead of the play without the the puck – if Bouchard’s defensive awareness improves enough that he stops allowing those back door plays to sneak past him, he’s going to be a far more valuable defender, then if he gets 70-80 points but remains a sieve in his own zone … and the team will be better off for it.
And yes, I’ll use the term training wheels again – Ekholm carried Bouchard in the D-zone last year, which is fine, as it was Bouch’s sophomore year. I’d prefer to have Nurse-Bouchard, Ekholm-Broberg, and Kulak-Ceci at some point by mid-season or going into the playoffs, were all 6 defenders are appropriately slotted and coming out ahead at even strength.
Absolutely.
I do think that the coaching staff will default back to Nurse/Ceci and Ekholm/Bouchard but there is good history with Nurse/Bouchard and, if they did want to give Broberg some elevated deployment, Nurse/Bouchard, Ekholm/Broberg and Kulak/Ceci would be VERY good if Broberg is able to handle that role.
Bouchard improved his defensive play throughout the year, even before Ekholm arrived and continued to do so through the year – in my opinion.
I saw his level of urgency in puck retrieval increase, I saw his battle level increase and his physicality, I saw him become one of the better zone entry defenders on the team. Absolutely he still have plenty of room to improve, in particular with “recognizing danger” in the defensive zone, but he showed quite a bit of development, at least to my eye, through last season.
He was gifted the albatross of Ryan Murray to start. As you say he improved, and part of that was the mobility of Philip Broberg. People have forgotten but it’s true.
They played a total of 63 minutes together 5 on 5. That’s equivalent to 10 minutes a game for 6 games. That was about 25% of Bouchard’s 5 on 5 time on ice during the stretch when Murray was part of the roster. Pretty small sample size, though the duo did go 0 GF 5 GA during that time period, rocking a .853 pdo (they actually had better than 50% in most of the major possession metrics, corsi, fenwick, shots, chances and high danger chances). That’s an .853 save% (most of the games were with Campbell in net) and a zero % shooting percentage. Might have been some bad luck there along with some bad tending and/or some really bad mistakes at the wrong time.
First two games were killer, 0-4 goals in about 18 minutes together five-on-five. 7
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=gpdate&fd=2022-10-07&td=2022-10-15&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480803&p2=8476850&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
Broberg’s mobility will “fix” Nurse too!! -).