I do this every year, it’s fun to project the minor leaguers and then see how close we can get during the long winter. Let’s start with a review of last year, before I miss wildly on this year’s group.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
2022-23 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS
- G Calvin Pickard (30): Solid AHL starter and first recall.
- G Ryan Fanti (23): Bit of a wild card, 20 starts and solid numbers seems reasonsable.
- G Olivier Rodrigue (22): 20+ solid starts in the AHL.
The big story is Olivier Rodrigue. He played in 29 games, posted a .912 save percentage and reignited his status as an NHL prospect. Calvin Pickard also played well (.912SP in 38 games) and will be around for another year. Ryan Fanti got into only 8 games and did not perform well (.884SP).
- LD Markus Niemelainen (24): NHL and AHL minutes, top two pairings in the AHL.
- LD Philip Broberg (21): Build on last year, make the NHL for good.
- LD Yanni Kaldis (26): Power-play quarterback, second pairing AHL. AHL deal.
- LD Darien Kielb (23): He’s a solid AHL player, makes good plays.
- LD Alex Peters (26): Solid extra man.
- LD Adam Brubacher (26): Needs to play well in depth role.
Philip Broberg was the big story, playing just 7 AHL games (2-2-4) before moving up to the NHL for 46 games with Edmonton (1-7-8, 53 pct goal share five-on-five). Markus Niemelainen spent more time (30 games) in the AHL and like Broberg had success in 23 NHL games (no points, 56 percent goal share five-on-five). Yanni Kaldis struggled (33-39 even-strength goals), the other AHL contracts played well enough.
Cam Dineen arrived via trade and delivered a 52 percent goal share at even strength. Max Gildon also showed up on loan and played well again.
- RD Jason Demers (34): Top pairing in the AHL, I believe he’ll spend most of the year in the NHL.
- RD Mike Kesselring (22): He’s spiking now. A season where he flourishes in all areas, possible NHL recall.
- RD Phil Kemp (23): Builds on previous seasons, emerges as NHL recall option.
- RD Vincent Desharnais (26): If he is in the AHL, top-four minutes, PK monster.
Vincent Desharnais played 13 AHL games and then moved up to the NHL where he enjoyed great success. Jay Woodcroft mentioned summer 2022 that he believed in him and Desharnais rewarded his coach with 36 solid NHL games. Mike Kesselring scored 13 goals for Bakersfield before getting dealt to the Arizona Coyotes. Phil Kemp (I called it right a year ago) didn’t make the NHL but played well. I was way wrong on Jason Demers. His skating issues were too much to overcome.
- LC James Hamblin (23): Strong in all areas, productive offense, NHL recall.
- LC Greg McKegg (30): Solid two-way play AHL, possible NHL recall.
- LC Luke Esposito (28): Versatile play in all areas, mentor role for young wingers.
- RC Filip Engaras (23): Climbing up depth chart with surprising utility and determination.
- RC Drake Rymsha (24): Rugged depth role.
James Hamblin was in fact recalled, but he was passed by Noah Philp before season’s end. Greg McKegg was a bitter disappointment early, and then played quite well but missed a chance at recall. Luke Esposito had a final year that was quality, he is now in Europe for the coming season. Condors will miss him.
- LW Mattias Janmark (29): Quick return to the NHL.
- LW Tyler Benson (24): Strong performance if he’s in Bakersfield. Point-per-game.
- LW Klim Kostin (23): He brings a physical element and has plenty of skill. NHL time.
- LW Raphael Lavoie (22): Prominent role once healthy. 25-goal pace?
- LW Samuel Dove-McFalls (25): Strong, physical winger with skill. Middle-six winger.
- LW Graham McPhee (24): Effective utility winger in the AHL.
- LW Carter Savoie (20): Prominent role when healthy.
Mattias Janmark played just four games in Bakersfield and then played well in Edmonton. Tyler Benson fell well short and posted his most disappointing pro season. Klim Kostin spent nine games in the AHL (2-2-4) and was a bull in a china shop. I don’t have evidence, but later in the year Raphael Lavoie began to do the things Kostin was doing. They did play a couple of games together. I nailed Lavoie’s goal-scoring totals, man that’s rare when projecting AHL numbers. The Carter Savoie projection is kind of sad looking at it from here.
- RW Seth Griffith (29): Condors leading scorer, possible NHL recall.
- RW Xavier Bourgault (19): He’s good, he’s working hard. 20+ goals.
- RW Dino Kambeitz (22): Increased minutes and production over a year ago. 15 goals?
- RW Tyler Tullio (20): Regular shifts, 10+ goals and effective two-way play.
- RW Noah Philp (24): Emerging as a Derek Ryan type in the AHL.
- RW Justin Bailey (27): Rugged winger with skill when healthy. Top-six minutes.
Seth Griffith did in fact lead the Condors in points, but his season-over-season performance is a concern. His even strength goal share went from 66-45 in 2021-22 all the way down to 46-54 this season. He’s no longer pushing the river in Bakersfield. Xavier Bourgault scored 13 goals, not 20+, but did display a nice range of skills. He did seem undersized in the AHL, perhaps he’ll gain some strength in the days to come. He’s skilled and has great anticipation. Tyler Tullio’s projection is spot on, he scored 13 and was effective. Noah Philp did in fact turn into a young Derek Ryan, even moving to center.
2023-24 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS
- G Olivier Rodrigue (24): Building on last season, more starts, a repeat of .912SP (or better).
- G Calvin Pickard (31): Healthy and effective, he may have to take a seat if Rodrigue spikes.
- G Ryan Fanti (24): Likely ECHL time, and some AHL. Needs to improve on last season by some margin.
- G Tyler Parks (31): He’s a quality ECHL starter, might see some AHL action.
- LD Philip Broberg (22): I see him in the NHL all season, he would be dominant in the AHL now.
- LD Markus Niemelainen (25): Big presence in the AHL, 20+ NHL games.
- LD Ben Gleason (25): Consistent two-way play, possible NHL recall.
- LD Cam Dineen (25): Strong offensive numbers, more consistent coverage than a year ago.
- LD Noel Hoefenmayer (24): Effective two-way play, physical. Build on last season’s first half.
- LD Alex Peters (27): Solid extra man.
- LD Jake Johnson (24): College grad, likely ECHL but much is unknown.
- LD Xavier Bernard (23): Big two-way blue, saw ECHL and AHL time last year.
- RD Phil Kemp (24): Fills important top-four role, emerges as strong recall option.
- RD Max Wanner (20): Struggles first half, improvement second half. He’s a good prospect.
- RD Connor Corcoran (22): Good size, strong performance for Henderson in (just) 11 games.
- RC Lane Pederson (25): He’ll split time between Edmonton and Bakersfield.
- LC James Hamblin (24): A return to 20-goal plateau of 2021-22.
- LC Brad Malone (34): Strong two-way play, more of a checking role this year.
- LC Greg McKegg (31): Solid two-way play, something we saw in the later part of the year.
- RC Jayden Grubbe (20): Mature and has size (6.03, 200). Checking role. 20 AHL points.
- LC Carl Berglund (23): College grad, he will see depth minutes, possibly ECHL time.
- LW Dylan Holloway (21): Listed on Condors summer tracker, I don’t believe it. Point-per-game in AHL.
- LW Raphael Lavoie (22): Another strong season in Bakersfield, I think he makes the NHL team.
- LW Drake Caggiula (29): A leading role, especially on offense, on the No. 1 line. Could play C.
- LW Carter Savoie (21): He should have a breakout season if healthy. 20 goals.
- LW Matvey Petroiv (20): If he gets solid EV and PP time, 15 goals as an AHL rookie.
- RW Seth Griffith (30): Top-six minutes, fewer PP minutes, lower point total.
- RW Xavier Bourgault (20): I think he’ll spike this season. 20 goals, 45-points pace.
- RW Tyler Tullio (21): I don’t think he’ll score 20, but will go past 30 points.
- RW Jack Chiasson (20): He may have a tough time winning playing time.
- RW Dino Kambeitz (23): Increased production. I’d love to see him sign an NHL deal.
- RW Ethan de Jong (24): Smart two-way player with skill. I think he could grab a significant role.
- RW Cameron Wright (24): Skilled, bit of a bull. ECHL regular.
The farm team actually looks quite good. Not a whole lot of AAA prospects but depth is pretty good. Borg, Petrov, Tulio, Grubbe, Wanner, Rodrigue all have some potential and are worth watching. Savoie better start fast, because if he doesn’t, Petrov could eat his lunch by Christmas. Is Savoie a poor man’s Schremp?
If a really good fit at 4C is not available by the end of TC – then I’d keep powder dry to jump on any opportunity in-season. Upgrade 4C and Ceci is all they need to be very dangerous (along with better goaltending and defensive systems). It’s all fixable and this season is one to go absolutely all in.
Dustin Nielson
@nielsonTSN1260
·
46m
Let’s go! http://edmontonsportstalk.com
More details Monday!
https://twitter.com/nielsonTSN1260/status/1685111760041426944?s=20
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-I_T3XvzPaM
I’m officially worried about the McLeod and Bouchard contracts going forward. At the end of the playoffs it seemed like Bouchard was going to come in at around 3 million and 1.5 for McLeod. Maybe I was being hopeful. Now Bouchard is around 4 mill and McLeod is around 2.5 mill. Bouchard is definitely benefiting from the McDavid effect on the power play. His defensive game is still a work in progress. McLeod is not worth a penny over 2 million and if he is going to sign for 2.5 Holland might as well trade him now before he becomes the new whipping boy on the Oilers. There were large stretches last year where he was invisible and only managed 11 goals. He then followed that up in the playoffs with 0 goals in 12 games. I think he had zero hits all season also. Holland can’t keep over paying the Puljujarvis and Yamamotos every time he has to re-up a prospect. Every team has this problem but especially on McLeod a veteran player at 1 million could bring the exact same production.
I would suggest that, if one if going to note the Bouchard’s stats are elevated by playing with McDavid and on the PP then one should also acknowledge that everything McLeod does is without McDavid/Drai nor the benefit of material PP time, right?
Of those goals, none were scored on the PP and, for the most part, without the benefit of top 6 linemates.
He also scored those goals in just 57 games which put him on a 15 goal pace (apx) and he was notably behind the 8-ball and took some time to get up to speed after that high ankle sprain.
He is also showing an increased ability to play against elite forwards (and should get more responsibility in that role) and is becoming an important PK guy.
Can his production be replaced with a cheaper vet? Maybe, I’m not sure, but I don’t think the overall positive impact he has can be and, of course, he still has multiple years of development and improvement ahead of him – he’ll be better year over year for a while.
I would suggest that, sure, $2.4MM is higher than we though a month ago but, at the end of the day, not out of line for what he brings as a 3rd line center and I would expect that AAV to be a value contract over the course of 2 years.
Fingers crossed that the arbitrator reads your piece and heeds your advice. Seriously.
I would agree that McLeod is a player that you’d like a cheaper contract but will be worth what he gets. You have to consider that he played at a 33 point pace with no PP time, and put up 5 points and 26 hits in the playoffs, plays well defensively and on the PK and will get likely get better. I don’t think you’re finding that player for 1M for free.
As to Bouchard, I don’t think one can complain about McLeod zero goals in the playoffs while ignoring Bouchard’s 4 goals/ 17 points. Would you like to see more defence? Yes. Did we pay Tyson Barrie 4.5M per year for less, also yes. If Bouchard gets a 2 year deal at less than 4.5M that’s a win.
Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl are as important to the power play as McDavid. Take any leg of the three-legged stool out and it tips over.
Revisiting the Athanasiou trade tree.
The Wings traded both picks.
They traded our 2020 45th pick for 51 and 97. The selected Theodore Niederbach and Sam
Stange.
Sam Stange isn’t scoring much in college. The Swedish Nickelback d had 18 points in 31 games last season in the Swe-1. He is undersized.
The King used the actual number 45 to select. Bock Faber. He put up a bunch of points as a right shot d in the big 10 last season. He has played 8 games in the NHL (2 regular season and 6 playoffs). He was flipped in a trade to the wild for Kevin Fiala.
The wings spent our 2021 2nd rounder in a trade to acquire Nick Leddy, with other pieces involved including a bad contract and retained salary.
The Islanders used that pick on Aatu Raty. He was in the Bo Harvat trade package. He’s 20 and has played in 15 NHL games. Aatu Raty is from the XB draft.
I didn’t know much about Brock Faber, but he looks like a serious prospect.
To add to the tree, Yzerman flipped Nick Leddy for Jake Walman , Oscar Sundqvist, and a second rounder used to select Andrew Gibson, a tall right shot d from the OHL.
Sundvist was traded to Minnesota for a fourth in 2023. He used the pick for Larry Keenan.
Foegele scored at 1st line rates last year at 5v5, while rarely playing with McDavid or Draisaitl. His 77.14 IPP attests to that.
Here’s his rank in various categories among all forwards who played at least 500 minutes at 5v5 in 22-23 (382 players):
G/60: 84th, tied with Panarin
P/60: 85th, tied with Tavares
IPP: 42nd, tied with Hartman
S/60: 50th, tied with Cozens
ixG/60: 9th, tied with Tavares
iSCF/60: 23rd
iHDCF/60: 8th
Hits/60: 108th, tied with Kreider
Takeaways/60: 3rd
Just how do you propose to replace that at league minimum? I want names please, not narratives.
All stats via NST: https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerteams.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&stdoi=std&rate=y&team=ALL&pos=F&loc=B&toi=500&gpfilt=none&fd=&td=&tgp=410&lines=single&draftteam=ALL
Per 60 amplifies results. Also no QoC context. He’s not scoring that against the better players. He’s a career .35 PPG, none of his NHL coaches gave him consistent top 6. He’s a good bottom 6 on a team that isn’t struggling to properly sign it’s young players in key positions and are more impact players
On this team his cap hit isn’t manageable. His Oiler coaches also HS’d him last season. Having Foegele isn’t a cup win deal breaker. Or Ceci. Having your future high offense D at a better cap for longer and 3C are far more valuable and important to success long term
Not narrative just another way to look at it. Including a macro view
I think given the lack of success we’ve seen from various league minimum wingers we’d want to keep a Foegele who can put up points at even strength and push possession without top end linemates.
Per 60 numbers don’t necessarily translate over longer periods of time but Foegele’s have been decent over his career. He’s done better than average despite a lack of power play time and I don’t really see how splitting up his money between two players would really improve the team.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Arbitration filings for Boston and Jeremy Swayman — team: $2M, player: $4.8M
Looks like they are using Toronto’s playbook on Samsanov.
I know that first year AHL pros, especially coming from the CHL, often struggle in their first year but damn if I’m not excited to see what Petrov can do and I just have this feeling he’ll hit the ground running a bit better – just a feeling.
Max Wanner was very good at rookie camp last season and I expect he’ll impress again this year. He’d got some good insulation that should help him ease in to the pro game.
Stay healthy Carter Savoie, stay healthy. I think he’ll score in bunches this season but also show some wild inconsistency in production.
Ty Tulio is going to be a fan favorite and I think he’ll push up with Bourgault.
I’ve got to think, well, at least I hope, that, unless he’s struggling, Rodrigue gets close to half the starts.
I know Pickard is a plus level AHL goalie, and indeed the guy that would get called up in case of NHL injury, but I think it behooves the org to get Rodrigue more starts. It shouldn’t be prohibitive of winning (which is important as well).
EDIT: Sorry, I read last year’s write-up thinking it was this years – reading further we are on the same page here.
Hart from Puckpedia was also on Oilers Now yesterday and both he and Bob expressed the same sentiment that some others have – surprise that Lavoie accepted his QO and didn’t sign the lower NHL salary with higher AHL salary which was offered to him.
Both expressed the potential that it could hurt his chances of making the team and of being claimed on waivers.
My personal hope is that he has a great camp (and, really, the $100K extra shouldn’t be prohibitive with a 21 player roster – could be but really shouldn’t) and then he is able to keep it going in the real NHL games.
We could sure use a 6’4 right handed, one-shot scorer that can play with an edge at times.
He ruined his life. Doomed to walking the streets with holes in his shoes. So sad.
“I’ve spent a thousand miles of thumbin’
Yes, I’ve worn blisters on my heels
Trying to find me something better
Here on the streets of Bakersfield
Hey, you don’t know me, but you don’t like me
Say you care less how I feel
But how many of you have sit and judged me
Ever walked the streets of Bakersfield?”
I love Buck Owens. My Uncle had all of the 45’s on the Capitol label. Watching that label go around on the turntable was enjoyable.
A great entertainer.
Since the declaration of “no panic or handwringing” on July 19, I don’t think a day has gone by where OP has not mentioned Lavoie and his contract…
He is so chill about it that it does not matter and tells us every day.
OP’s alarm clock 6am blaring “I got you babe” every single damn morning!! 🤣
This is probably correct – of course, it is relevant to the daily conversation of roster construction and the opening night roster and the cap room required to sign McLeod and Bouchard and who the 21st player/12F will be.
I am not panicked one iota nor distressed in any way about it but definitely think its a relevant point in the current daily discussion.
Too funny. Thanks for the laugh, LT.
Not at all – may have made his goals for October harder to attain but certainly didn’t ruin his life.
Its a topic of conversation – not just me (and some others in this community) but also from various other reputable persons (Hart from Puckpedia, Bruce McCurdy, Bob Stauffer, etc.).
We should have more visibility in to this in the next 10 days or so McLeod’s number will be known by the end of next weekend and Bouch will likely follow soon.
We’ll know for certainty the cap space left for 12F (subject to further moves) – its likely $875K or more making this a non-issue (but for accrual of cap space which will be secondary I’m sure).
Bad judgement? Confused player? Bad advice? Bad management? Bit of column A, bit of column B?
I myself don’t get why Holland loves being so tight to the Cap. I love Foegele who would be tradeable replace with 1.2 player pay McLeod and Bouchard and have still have enough to pick-up the tab at the King & I
If Foegele could be replaced with a $1.2 M player why would anybody trade for Foegele rather than just sign that other guy?
There is always some GM that likes a guy whose established or whatever. Or saw him good in the playoffs, or needs speed and size etc. There was interest and the Oilers should not have players at that cap hit in his role because they have a lot of players making 5M + and a third pair D at 2.75M
Totally agree in their current cap squeeze that Foegele is a luxury at that salary.
But as I have said before they should have moved him early in the summer when teams had cap room. I think they could have done well in a trade at that time.
Now that there are very few teams with any cap room I don’t think that deal is available.
I don’t know if you watched Vegas but their 4th line kicked ass throughout the entire Playoffs carrying 1.4 million cap hits. This line Won them a Cup in my opinion. The difference between Foegele is a team with available Cap will trade for him because he’s a known a very serviceable reliable Winger that can score 15-20. The Vegas 4th line was more unknown they gambled with it and it payed off in spades.
It was a lot of the same guys that hammered Colorado. They used a different fiorecheck, but the results were similar. I think it’s fair to say that they’re bottom six was known as a plus before the playoffs started… not so much of an unknown.
Not the point Reja. The point is that the ship has sailed on being able to make that trade for any value. There is a reason why good players are still unsigned this late in the off season. The time to move Foegele was back in June.
Sather never had a problem you think after 30 years Holland would call some markers in instead he greases his Savior Yzerman and helps out a good ole buddy Bowman.
This is pretty much the definition of a non sequiter.
Is it really? Gretzky was won in a Backgammon game.
non se·qui·tur| ˌnän ˈsekwədər |
noun
a conclusion or statement that does not logically follow from the previous argument or statement: his weird mixed metaphors and non sequiturs.
ORIGIN
Latin, literally ‘it does not follow.’
Not sure what Vegas’ 4th line has to do with Foegle who generally plays on the Oilers 3rd line and has moved up to play on Drai’s RW here or there.
It takes a team effort but I’ll say it again Vegas 4th line won them the Cup. Sometimes it’s the 3rd line on previous Stanley Cup winners but they all have one thing in common they Bully their way past the opposition. The Broad Street Bullies the Big Bad Bruins, Oilers the Kings, Blackhawks, Blues, Caps and the Knights. I know I’m missing a few other winners. You need some glue players that will do the dirty work for a million and love it.
I expect you could move Foegele with a prospect attached.
I wonder how much of a downgrade, if any, Sam Gagner at league minimum would be.
Sam Gagner, at this point in his career would be an extreme downgrade in almost every single aspect of the game, most notably speed and defense. No need to wonder.
Holy moly, what a stupid thing to say.
Sam is a nice guy but exactly the opposite of who winners win with as I see it. Haven’t we had enough looks?
That is not your best idea HH.
I wouldn’t say he “loves to be” and he even said ideally he would like a good million dollars of cap space (both for wiggle room and accruing), however, at the end of the day:
1) over the last couple of year, starting the season in LTIR, its imperative to max out the “real cap space” for opening night or you end up losing any left space; and
2) this season, well, he’s trying to improve the team with and there were few material contracts coming off the books, bonuses overages and arb cases are raising costs.
He could have instructed Woody to bench Bouchard the last game of last season – that would have increased cap space this season by apx $500K as Bouch hit has last two bonuses.
Given your thoughts on prior treatment of Bouch, would this have been something you would be in favor of?
Yes, he could trade Foegele and replace him with a $1.2MM player – that would make the team worse almost assuredly – you realize that Foegele was 6th on the team in 5 on 5 goals last year (and was playing with a bad wrist for the last 3 months).
Yes I would of benched Bouchard with the stipulation to him and his Agent that the $500,000 gets added on to his contract this year or $250,000 over 2 years.
Zero chance Bouchard’s agent advises him do that. There would be no way to enforce or even determine if he actually received the $500,000 value in his next contract.
Would also look ridiculous if the Oilers happened to lose that game with Bouchard out, and Vegas ended up losing to Seattle, costing the Oilers first place.
Well they looked pretty darn tootin foolish sitting Bouchard for 75% of the year in a motel 6 as well as the Playoffs where we seen Bear get exposed like I’ve never seen before.
Good timing for this blog post as the GM of the Condors, Keith Gretzky, was on Oilers Now with Stauffer yesterday.
They didn’t get in to the team and players too much but a few things from Gretzky:
1) A big off-season for Bourgault coming up. He had a good season but did fade late and part of that was the grind of the AHL after a long CHL season and Memorial Cup run.
2) They were disappointed early last season with Lavoie as he kept “making the same mistakes over and over again”. Lavoie was “finally healthy scratched”. When he was reinserted “it was like he was a different player”. “He was one of the go-to guys down the stretch.
3) One of the issues last season was depth and that is the reason they added the four guys (Pederson, Caggiula, Hoffenmayer and Gleason. It does seem like all four were signed to mainly play in the AHL but, of course, call-up options (in particular the forwards).
of note: he mentions Gleason shoots left but plays Right D
I don’t think Jake Chiasson’s mother is going to be very happy with you. 😎
Bruce McCurdy with an interesting look at team building.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/vegas-golden-knights-edmonton-oilers-have-built-contenders-by-shopping-in-different-aisles
As I have said all along, Holland signs UFAs and buys at the deadline. Foegele, is the only current player that we traded for that wasn’t a deadline deal. Players cost the most at the deadline.
Holland buys his winter jackets and snowblower at the first snowfall. He never waits until the end of the season when they’re on sale.
The deadline is not quite like the winter though. You know you’ll need a jacket and snowblower for winter in Canada.
You can somewhat prepare for the 2024 hockey playoffs in the summer of 2023, but there’s not close to the same level of certainty that what you’ll actually need the most 8 months later is the jacket and snowblower.
Also, Ekholm is the only significant player that Holland has added at the deadline.
Edit: I forgot Kulak.
Athanasiou was a significant player when he was added at the deadline. And based on the fact that Rob Blake and Kyle Davidson have signed him to $2.75 MM, $3.00 MM and $4.25 MM in his last 3 contracts, he has bounced back to a significant player following his bad 9 regular season 4 playoff game pandemic disrupted stretch with the Oilers.
Yes, true, though significant players were added in non-deadline deals too but were not included because they are not part of the current team.
Athanasiou was, indeed, a significant player. He was a bit of a secret agent, with some timely defensive miscues that cost the Kings the first series against us.
I remember reading the Kings blogs during that series. The fans were irate saying things like putting him on the ice was like giving us a power play. It’s no surprise they didn’t bring him back.
He was a perfect fit for Chicago, however. During their summer tear down to build a tank strong enough to contend for Bedard, adding Athanasiou was a no-brainer. He has enough speed and skill to entertain the fans scoring some goals while being so poor defensively ensuring to give it all back and then some by the end of the game.
Another reminder that Athanasiou has had a better GF% than the team around him 6 of the 8 years he’s played in the league.
This is your narrative. Atha is another big talented good skating prima Donna. There are more of those than Mark Stones. If you won’t play two ways or be able to score 120 points you don’t stick on any team. Like him. There’s always someone who thinks they need offense at any cost. That goals get paid regardless of overall contribution lessens the league
A jacket, a snowblower, and a replacement for Oscar Klefbom.
Klefbom was a beauty pick by MacTavish.
No one knows exactly when, but Holland knew he needed a replacement long before we did.
Klefbom was picked by Tambellini and Magnificent Bastand.
When I was thinking back to that famous MacT quote, I had incorrectly thought it was him scouting Klefbom before drafting him.
I was incorrect.
Most regarded Klefbom as the Oilers #1D when he last played for the Oilers.
There are a few examples of teams addressing that kind of loss more efficiently than Ken Holland did, but there aren’t many.
McCrimmon added Martinez for a 2nd round pick in 2020 and a second round pick in 2021, coincidentally the same picks Holland used on Athanasiou.
Sakic added Toews for two second round picks, also same as the Athanasiou picks.
Chevy added DeMelo for a 3rd round pick to Ottawa in 2020.
Zitio claimed Forsling off waivers from the Hurricanes in January of 2021.
Dellow picked up Siegenthaler from the Caps for a 3rd rounder.
Yzerman picked up Jake Walman, a second, and Sundqvist for the Nick Leddy that he acquired with one of our seconds.
Those are just off the top of my head.
Walman, Forsling, and Siegenthaler were guys picked for nothing or very little. Holland doesn’t shop in that aisle. Holland likes vets, free agency, and the trade deadline.
We can’t really include DeMelo since he’s a 2/3 RD.
And I’m surprised you’re listing Martinez since he was an about to be 33-year old when McCrimmon acquired him. A season later McCrimmon re-signed the 34-year old for 3 more years, which appears worse than what you poo pooed Holland for (acquiring Ekholm at 32, soon to be 33, with 3 years remaining).
Anyway, no question Towes, Forsling, Siegenthaler and Walman were nice adds. Martinez has worked out pretty well too, with his age 36 season still to go.
That looks to me like “a few examples” as I originally said, does it not?
And ironically, Martinez, Siegenthaler and Walman were all added at the trade deadline by the way.
Shouldn’t the highest paid GM in his late 60’s know this stuff?
The only reason you should add at the deadline – which 90% of the time doesn’t help because it’s disrupting the team or the players are meh – is injuries
A competent GM should know what his team lacks and add it at the lowest cost. They should also leave enough cap space to pick up cap dumps
Deadline is a meme. Cap hell is a meme. Maybe I should say buzz words. I dislike buzzwords, become meaningless and thought stifling immediately. Someone says it enough and the less bright and forward thinking do it, because. We see a few guys running circles around the rest. Like every industry. Vision and a plan, or lemming playing catch up? Messi or kids soccer?
A quick check of Carolina’s cap situation will attest to all of this,
If you can name me a team or two who’s GM is competent enough that they don’t add at the deadline then we can begin to have a conversation.
So if this is Holland’s last year I wonder if the new G.M whether it is in my opinion Steve Staios, Keith Gretzky or Brad Holland take a different approach and try building more through the draft. They may have the opportunity too get 2 Kings ransoms if Leon is traded after this year and Connor the following year.
It will be interesting to watch how the Oilers navigate those two contracts especially if they don’t win a cup in the next two seasons.
It’s possible they can remain relevant like Dallas despite them being locked into very expensive contracts to declining Benn and Seguin and saved by exceptional drafting.
Or, another possible outcome is the example of San Jose who have been forced to tear it all down after trying hard to extend a long period of excellence without winning the ultimate prize.
Career highs for the 4 in question:
Seguin – 84 points (age 21) – 40 goals (different season)
Benn – 89 points – 41 goals
Draisaitl – 128 points – 55 goals (different season)
Mdavid – 153 points – 64 goals
I would politely suggest a long term expensive contract would age better for the latter two than the former injuries notwithstanding as Seguin has dealt with alot. San Jose was hurt alot more by Vlasic breaking down and Jones losing all semblance of ability. LA had the same issues and have come back to contention, the teardown is unneccessary imo.
Some era adjustments required there…remember Benn actually won the Art Ross Trophy in that season.
And yes, LA has overcome the Kopitar and Doughty long term deals but most of that recovery was based on them successfully moving out a very large number of veteran players in return for draft picks as well as benefiting from continued high level play from that duo.
The question is, could the Oilers move out all the older expensive players on retirement contracts to retool?
Nurse, Campbell, Nuge, Kane and Hyman all have no movement clauses through their declining years.
Certainly possible but not easy.
“Nurse, Campbell, Nuge, Kane and Hyman all have no movement clauses through their declining years”.
This is just so wrong. Maybe you should actually look these easy to find facts up before posting garbage. Or maybe you intentionally misrepresented things.
First of all Jack Campbell does not a a no movement clause, he has a modified no trade with only 10 teams he can block.
Nuge is the only one who has an NMC through the end of his contract.
Kane’s contract expires at the same time McDavid’s does, so has no impact on McDavid’s next deal It also converts from MNC to M-NTC for the one season overlapping with the 1st year on Draisaitl next deal where he can block half the teams.
Hyman switches from NMC to M-NTC with a 10 team trade list, at the expiration of McDavid’s current contract.
Nurse switches to a M-NTC with a 10 team trade list, one season into McDavid’s next contract when he is all of 32 years old, one year younger than Pietrangelo is now.
Go ahead – move the goal posts again if your desperate!
You know as well as I do that a MNTC that allows only a few teams to be traded to can effectively be used as a NMC by only including teams that can’t or won’t accommodate a trade.
In any event, I said these NMC extend through declining years and in all but the most unusual circumstances, aging curves will prove that to be true,
I guess you are desperate to move the goal posts. Sad.
” Era adjustments” -that’s what you’ve sunk to? How weak is that argument? Why even bother trying? No one is fooled by it.
Teams are scoring more and play has opened up to some degree over the past 2-3 years. Tage Thompson scored 47 Goals last year that doesn’t happen 3-5 years ago.
I think almost everybody knows that. That wasn’t my point.
Apparently you are fooled by HH’s lame argument that because Jamie Benn won an Art Ross in 2015 and, based on “era adjustments, he is a comparable player to McDavid.
I said nothing of the sort.
But having two enormous contracts on the books through the players late 30’s while also having a roster stuffed with aged out vets is a recipe for a Sharks decline.
LA moved out a ton of players for draft picks while they still had value…the Oilers will have a very tough time doing that.
One thing that’s not mentioned is what a prick Benn could be when riled up. Nobody fuked with Benn when he went dark.
Dallas eh? With Benn and Seguin as boat anchors it was shocking to watch them do the exact… same… thing… with Late Bloomer Hinze. Boat anchor of boat anchors there.
That team is run almost as poorly as L.A. I said almost though, only Treliving can hold a candle to the Crap Snadwich Blake just foisted upon his fanbase hahaha.
The Hintz contract ends when he is 34.
An 8 year Draisaitl extension would end when he is 38.
There is no way to know who will age better but averages are not on Leon’s side.
With Hinze I don’t dislike the player but I don’t think that it’ll age well with Dallas’ roster construction.
Couple reasons: Roope’s a bit of late bloom already, the advanced age of everyone but Robertson offensively (everyone else way past Peak), and the almost sure deterioration of the significantly older player this season and next, give me pause. I doubt Roope will hold a ppg pace past this season nevermind seven years from now. Perfectly fine player, but as the supporting staff ages out, there’s no Calvary to back off the QoC and he’ll get eaten up. Even a guy like Tavares, playing with legit superstars has had trouble maintaining a ppg in Toronto. Is Roope more talented that JT? Will he have the same sort of supporting cast in the next eight seasons to help him hit those point totals?
As a hockey fan I have a tough time seeing it.
For that reason I don’t think you’ve drawn a good comparator with Leon. Leon scored Roope’s career totals the last two seasons. I think the odds are quite high from here till retirement that Leon triples Roope in Goals, Assists and Points. They really aren’t comparable players.
Will Leon score a 1.6ppg pace until 38? No not likely. But Franchise Cornerstones, and Generational Talents, tend to hold a ppg pace until they hang up the blades. Crosby, Ovechkin and Malkin still hoisting ppg and high g/game consistently into their late 30s. That is probably more indicative of where things end up for a guy of Leon’s stature.
I believe that “if” Draisailt recieves an eight-year contract he would only be 36. Please check your facts or math before commenting.
He will be 29 when his current contract expires…and turn 30 shortly after a new contact kicks in.
Likely last year as the GM but I am expecting he’ll be involved for the next while.
I think he will be very much involved in the Drai and McDavid extension discussions – my guess is the familiarity and his relationships with the agents will be important and an asset.
I think you hit the nail on the head with this take.
You feeling OK….?
I think it might be Sunstroke.
Podcasts!?
With the passing of 1260 (RIP), maybe we could put together a list of hockey related podcasts? LT, please my friend, make your way back to our greedy ears!!!
I’m listening to Spittn’ Chicklets and 32 Thoughts…I’ve tried Mitts Off with Luke Gazdic.
Any suggestions?
Enjoying the Nurse episode of Gazdic currently.
Got Yer Back with Rishaug and Struddy is a good listen
The PDO Cast is exceptional although on offseason hiatus.
https://hockeypdocast.com/
The Athletic daily cast is fun, although would wait for the season to start as they’ve admitted they don’t have much at the moment. Dog days and all that.
Marek’s show is must listen even if he repeats his catchphrases constantly. He’s also off for the summer
Dustin Nielson has 2. Well, he has like 20, but 2 hockey ones.
Two Guys and a Goalie with Matt Kassian and Joaquin Gage, and Oil Stream with Tom Gazzola. Both very Oilers-centric.
Cult of Hockey
32 Thoughts
Oilers Nation Radio
ON Everyday
The OilStream
2 Guys and a Goalie
Daily Faceoff
Mitts Off
Got Yer’ Back
These are such good posts. Well done.
New Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
https://theathletic.com/4723497/2023/07/28/oilers-scouting-stats-standings-2023/