The easiest thing in the world to do this summer is overlook Carter Savoie’s future. Five rookies fly to Bakersfield, three play well (Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Noah Philp) one struggles (Ryan Fanti) and the fifth is injured enough to consider the entire 2022-23 campaign a year lost. Savoie had a poor season, but the talent remains. How often does a player struggled badly as an AHL rookie and then turn it on?
Matvey Petrov, Max Wanner, Jayden Grubbe, Jake Chiasson and Carl Berglund will graduate to pro hockey and the AHL Bakersfield Condors. The remannts of the 2021 draft are here, distant bells, odds and sods. Oilers scouts did well.https://t.co/oSrEH8lWg6
DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
SAVOIE ENTERING PRO
Savoie played for the national champion Denver Pioneers in 2022-23, posted 3.9 shots per game and a 15.1 shooting percentage. His release is splendid and he is what Craig MacTavish used to call a first-shot scorer. I ranked him as the No. 5 prospect in the system in the summer of 2022.
His boxcars in 2022-23 as an AHL rookie (44 games, 8-3-11) were miles from expectation. His shot volume (55 in 44 games, 1.25 shots-game) was a concern but his shooting percentage (14.5) remained a strength. Here’s a look at a player who can’t be counted as a training camp hopeful but is an important prospect in the organization.
He’s injured a lot, eh? Savoie suffered an injury early in prospects camp, that set him back and he missed all of training camp. His first AHL game of the season came at the end of October. Then he hurt himself end of January on a fairly innocent looking play that took him out of the lineup for over three weeks. He had three reported injuries over the season.
So just the shooting percentage, then? There are pockets of hope beyond the shooting percentage, but we should remember a lot of his value is going to come in scoring goals. He EV-PP-PK goal ratio was 5-3-0 and I think this is a player we’ll see plenty five-on-four in whatever league he lands.
What was his best stretch of games? In a 24-game run that began November 5, he scored all of his points. 8-3-11. That included a hat-trick game and a two-goal game. It also included 34 shots (1.4) and I do think shot volume with this player will be key.
What do you mean? Raphael Lavoie had three shots per game last season. If Savoie reaches three per game, and plays in 60 games, he’ll score 20+. His shot is that good.
What about his outscoring? It’s ghastly! True, but he was -3 during that 24-game run that I am counting as his healthy period.
You rated him pretty high last summer, how much did he fall? I have him No. 10 this summer, right at the end of the skilled men and just before the best checkers.
Is there anyone like him in recent Oilers history who played at 20 in the AHL? Teemu Hartikainen had a 12.9 percent shooting rate and exactly two shots per game in 2010-11; Milan Kytnar had a 15.1 shooting percentage and 1.1 shots-per-game same season. Joe Gambardella shot the puck 1.36 times a game in 2017-18, owned a ridiculous 19.1 shooting percentage.
These are not inspiring names. Yes.
You are not helping! Look, Savoie is a quality prospect but he has to stay healthy. His AHL numbers, as laggard as they may be, do show that he was delivering what the resume suggests: He shoots, he scores!
I wish we had AHL time on ice. We do have Eric Rodgers estimated time on ice.
What do they show about Savoie? Rodgers estimates 9:45 per game at even strength over 44 games. At even strength, Savoie scored 5-3-8. So, his goals-per-60 (estimated) were .70 (and that’s a good number). His points-per-60 at even strength is 1.12, which is poor.
And on the power play? Three goals in just over 25 minutes, that’s 7.0 goals per 60. He was born to hammer.
How does that compare to the other rookies from last year? Xavier Bourgault scored 6-14-20 in an estimated .45 goals-per-60 and a 1.51 points-per-60 in the discipline. Both numbers are disappointing for a player who tore up the blacktop in junior.
Bourgault power play? 3.3 goals-per-60 and 7.9 points-per-60, all estimated. They are good numbers, and Savoie plays a different role, but expecting both men to occupy the power play for extended minutes in 2023-24 seems a reasonable bet.
Anything else on Bourgault? Rodgers estimates he scored 5.6 goals-per-60 shorthanded. It is a ridiculous number of course, but I watched him on the PK and he has some of the Keon (anticipation) in him. Sneaky good at interceptions.
What about Tyler Tullio? He’s a guy who just keeps rolling along and in many ways had the best debut of the forwards age 20 who played for Bakersfield one year ago.
What about Tyler Tullio? Estimated to play 9:45 per game at even strength (Bourgault led the group, estimated 12:50 per game) and scored 10-11-21 (.97 goals-per-60 and 2.05 points-per-60 estimated).
So he soared over the other two? At even strength, as a scorer, he was easily the strongest 20-year old on the Bakersfield roster. It took time for the coach to know what he was, or these numbers might be even stronger.
What do you make of this? We need more samples. Bourgault emerged as a more complete player than we thought he would be, but a shy scorer at evens. I know people want to blame the coach, but Bourgault played more than the other rookies and he didn’t set Kern county on fire.
You shouldn’t say that, California has a lot of fires. Okay, he didn’t light up Kern country.
So much better. You’ve grown as a person. Do you have another question?
If you’re a betting man, who plays the most in the NHL? Bourgault.
Who plays the least? Savoie.
Would you be surprised if Tullio ended up with the best career? Not at all.
Would you be surprised if they all miss out on playing at least one NHL game? Shocked to my shoes.
Would you be surprised if all of them played over 200 NHL games? Flummoxed. It won’t happen.
What is the one thing Savoie needs this season? He needs two things. Over 60 games in the AHL and plenty of playing time, especially on the power play.
Would you be shocked if Savoie played his first NHL game this coming season? No. Not at all. He’s exactly the kind of player an NHL team might have a look at if he’s filling the net. Savoie is a player who is capable of legendary status in the AHL. He had a 14.5 shooting percentage in a disastrous season. The man can shoot.
You will notice that the last line notes that the Bruins don’t really have a lot of trade chips that would interest Calgary – or Winnipeg for that matter – and, of course, any trade would basically involve money in, money out.
What about Tyler Tullio? He’s a guy who just keeps rolling along and in many ways had the best debut of the forwards age 20 who played for Bakersfield one year ago.
When Tulio was on a heater mid-season, it may have been the best stretch of games by an Oilers prospect last season. He was full on peak-Yamamoto style wise but was ripping the puck and scoring goals – the kid can shoot – sneaky good one-timer.
I’m intrigued about his upside – Brendan Gallagher type player
First ballot hall of famer in 3 years time. Great career in any respect, but particularly after all the concussion problems in ’07, ’08 and again in ’11. He also endured a finger biting in the finals from Burrows. Too bad for him and Canada that the NHL hasn’t participated in any best on best tourneys since 2016, so he couldn’t add to his 6 international gold medals.
He has to be one of the all-time best draft picks. #45 in 2003 which was a deep draft and he played as an 18 year old scoring 39 points and then ended up fifth in that draft in GP and 2nd in points while also being one of the best defensive players to ever play.
I’ll take Luc Robitaille and his 668 goals drafted in round 9 overall 171 any day of the week. As a added bonus Luc’s Stepson is the grandson of Steve fricking McQueen how awesome is that.
Bergeron did his job and he did it well but I do find the hype on him all the time a little over the top.
And with this the NHL loses its one true forward defensive superstar. Bergeron was paid to play defense and he did it to an unbelievably strong and effective degree.
Go pull his fancies on PuckIQ and/or NaturalStat and place him up against some of the supposed defensive Aces out there and you’ll see a god amongst boys.
O’reilly, Barkov, Kopitar all jokers compared to Bergeron. He never slipped and always performed at a high level. All those guys are actors in comparison and savagely overpaid too boot.
Hopefully somewhere kids are learning to play the game like he played it cause he was heads and shoulders above the rest.
They effectively created the trophy for Gainey. He’d have probably won it 2 or 3 times more if it had existed when he started. The Russians called him the perfect hockey player.
We’re talking the Selke, not the Hart (for points) and in an era when scoring goals was much easier, Gainey’s defensive play kept pucks out of the net.
Again, I don’t think you can go wrong with either, but I’ll take Russian Coach Tikhonov’s recommendation (the best technical player ever) and adjust for his era.
He insists the Oilers “have room” for one more forward and he suggest that whether that player is a $900K guy or a $1.2MM guy depends on where McLeod and Bouch come in.
I have no idea how he figures there is cap space for that type of player.
Also, he mentioned that external signing would be to bump Pederson down and he made zero mention of Lavoie until someone brought him up in a text (and then Bob mentioned that Lavoie may have priced himself out and maybe he is hoping he’ll get claimed on waivers and “we’ll see”).
I’m not sure how they could afford a $900K to $1.2MM player but Lavoie is priced out – doesn’t really make sense to me.
Also, I don’t know of this is just Bob or if its an organizational message but he was really dismisive of Lavoie – almost like he’s an after-thought as far as the opening roster…..
The team played a game of chicken with that last year and likely will this year. The Oilers will have 14 players at 2M or more (so 2-3 min contracts at least) and if any one of them goes down that solves all of their roster problems.
I hope there’s a contingency trade plan in place for McLeod if a deal can’t be reached before arbitration. Clearly the arbitrators are not taking into account the league-wide cap crunch that’s been going on for 3 years in making their awards.
If McLeod is going to get paid ~$2.5 I’d rather sign Danton Heinen or Noah Gregor for around half of that.
With arbitration elected, the Oilers and McLeod are committed to a contract by next week. Either they agree beforehand, or both parties have to sign whatever the arbitrator awards (no chance McLeod’s award will exceed the ~$4.5 million limit over which the Oilers could walk away making McLeod a free agent).
The arbitrator is specifically prohibited by the CBA from considering the team or the league’s cap situation in assessing the award. The only relevant evidence is comparable players and contracts.
If McLeod gets awarded more than what the Oiler budget can handle, the Oiler’s main options are:
1) pay Bouchard less (Holland has leverage over Bouchard, but not an option he would want to or be wise to use long term)
2) buyout Jack Campbell (only player on team that is both eligible to be bought out in this instance and even worth considering). This would save ~3.5 million this year, less whatever Campbell’s replacement would cost. The Oilers would have $13 million in deadcap spreadout over 8 seasons. Not a likely scenario.
3) trade one of Ceci, Kulak or Foegele and replace with a cheaper option
4) trade McLeod and replace with a cheaper option.
5) run with 20 players for a while if necessary.
6) other – who knows what other ideas they have though of?
I am sure Holland has both base plans and contingencies.
I’d prefer to keep McLeod around $2MM but I’m certainly not going to materially downgrade the roster over a slight over-payment when he’s not even at his prime years yet.
Arbitrators are expressly prohibited from taking in to account a team’s cap situation – they are only permitted to look at certain statistics and use them vis-a-vis comparables and their contracts.
I feel like their intention with Lavoie is for him to be sent down unless he forces his way onto the roster and I suspect he and his agent knew that. I think most of us had him penciled into our rosters the same way we all had Athanasiou penciled in before Holland surprisingly didn’t send him a qualifying offer. LT often says that the Oilers telegraph their moves and I think that’s what we’re seeing here. Especially if the team has Bourgault ahead of Lavoie and are hoping to get him games this year.
Holland’s general MO is to have rookies/prospects “take someone’s job” and that is Lavoie’s task.
Of course, as of right now, there is noone that has the job of 12F, its Pederson and Co. in an open comp.
They may hope that Bourgault gets NHL games this year, and they very well may have him rated higher than Lavoie as a prospect overall, but, at the same time, I think they fully expect Bourgault to need at least a few months, if not most of this season, in the AHL – Lavoie, on the other hand, COULD be ready right now (even if they rate him lower over all)
Yeah, I would keep Lavoie and play him at least 10-15 games to see what you have but I do think he really will have to be the “training camp surprise” Taylor Fedun style to make the team. I mentioned Bourgault not because I expect him to make the opening night roster but because they likely would prefer he get games in the top-9 when injury strikes mid-season instead of Lavoie getting them.
I’m not sure why they even bothered to sign Pederson, unless it was to play in Bakersfield.
But if they consider Lavoie to be out of the picture and they probably want an upgrade on Neimelianen and those three players are listed on Capfriendly . Then that’s a combined $2.4M added to the $5.6M current cap space, that gives them slightly over $8M to sign MacLeod & Bouchard and sign a competent 4c, signed for league minimum and possibly one more depth Dman, also signed for league minimum. That leaves $6.4M to sign MacLeod & Bouchard, for a 21-man roster. Is that doable?
If the roster is as we suspect and no surprises the Oilers are currently sitting with $7,157,500 in cap room with 10 forwards, 6 dmen, and 2 goalies signed. No Pederson, no Lavoie, no Neimo etc. but it does include Broberg & Holloway.
Well look at capfriendly and they have $5,609,208. current cap space with Pederson, Lavoie & Nemo, also Holloway all listed, somehow Broberg is omitted. So, you figure it out any way you want.
Yeah, I look at capfriendly all the time but because they make roster assumptions that don’t necessarily fit with what is likely to happen I always have a spreadsheet where I track these things.
Broberg is omitted because they chose Neimo instead of him which I assume is based upon their algorithm.
I think most of their assumptions are simply 1- vs. 2-way contracts (though not all ELC players like Broberg are listed in the minors). Niemalainen’s contract switched to 1-way in year 2.
Could be. I’ve never looked to see if I could discern a pattern. I just find that to follow the Oilers it is easier to just set up a spreadsheet each off season and use their data to construct my own roster scenarios.
I suspect Pederson was signed to be a tweener/insurance for the team. Nobody seems to think he’s the opening night 4C because they keep talking about adding another 4C
Holland expressly noted that Pederson and Caggiula were signed for the AHL and NHL depth. I don’t think Holland wants Pederson as the 12F to start the season but we currently are where we are.
1) Remove Niemo from the capfriendly stated roster but add Broberg.
2) They are essentially looking at near league min for the 12F/4C, be it Lavoie, Pederson or an external hire.
I’m not sure where Bob is getting upwards of $1.2MM in potential cap space for that player unless McLeod/Bouch come in much lower than things are trending.
I’m not sure where Bob is getting upwards of $1.2MM in potential cap space for that player unless McLeod/Bouch come in much lower than things are trending.
As defmn said, with 10F, 6D and 2G signed they have $7.157M in cap space. So McLeod, Bouchard and another forward (Lavoie, Pederson or someone external) make it 21 players.
If McLeod and Bouchard sign for a combined $5.95M or less then there is $1.2M remaining that could be used for an external forward.
If the number is any higher than $6.283M then the 12th forward will need to be cheaper than Lavoie.
And if it’s any higher than $6.383M then the Oilers will need to trade someone or run a 20 man roster.
Bob seemingly said $900k to $1.2M, so that seems quite reasonable. And McLeod + Bouchard signing for $5.95M or less still doesn’t seem that improbable does it?
Aside from Broberg being a better player whose development is best served by playing in the NHL, he needs to be on the opening night roster for cap purposes.
If he isn’t on the opening night roster, if/when he were called up his salary and all of his potential bonuses count as his cap hit. If he is on the opening night roster instead, only his salary counts, and any bonuses count against next years cap (less cap space the Oilers have left at the end of this season).
He isn’t likely to hit many of his bonuses, but not having him on the roster on day 1 would mean his cap hit this season is a bit more than $1.7M, which is a bit of a problem.
And Holloway is most likely to be on the opening night roster for the same reason as Broberg – bonus calculations pretty much assure both of them are there for cap purposes.
Toews, though he likely isn’t available. Nosek would also have been nice but he chose Jersey.
Of the available free agents my list would probably be Suter first and then one of Stastny or Staal second. IMO it would need to be a center though.
I haven’t looked at potential trades, but a quick look on Capfriendly for -active players, -listed as centers, -not on ELC, -make less than $1.2M, doesn’t reveal a lot of particularly appealing options.
I had the same impression for trades. And I think we both see that as a long shot at this point. There are a few GM’s that have to be paddling like crazy under water but it looks pretty calm from above.
Last edited 9 months ago by defmn
OriginalPouzar
July 25, 2023 9:03 am
Hurt in camp, hurt throughout the season – Savoie just never really got a chance to get comfortable in pro hockey and gain traction. He did have some small stretches where he showed that high end offensive skill.
Here is hoping he has a great summer and stays healthy through the year – my expectation is for him to get comfortable, gain traction and end the season in the top 6 and PP1 – hopefully 20G and maybe .7 PPG?
John Chambers
July 25, 2023 8:46 am
Savoie probably should’ve played another year of College hockey against his age peers. Pro hockey can take its toll, especially on a 5’9″ 20-year old.
I can see his boxcars inflating in his second season of pro hockey. Especially with a few veterans who can set him up to cash.
Carter is 192 lbs so he is solid enough to handle himself. Injuries can happen in college as well – look at Holloway. And how much more hockey was he going to learn in Denver? He was already pretty dominant at that level, being a Hobie Baker finalist in his last season. That AHL toll/grind (injuries aside) probably accelerates his development / adjustment to the pro game. He probably played as many games in the AHL as he would have in Denver, if not more.
And pretty hard to tell a kid not to sign that pro contract that guaranteed him at least $500,000 (signing bonuses, plus 3 seasons of AHL minimum). He gets hurt badly in college, where he is not advancing his game that much, and his chance could be gone.
It was a poor development year for Savoie, and he didn’t get much of a chance to play to his strengths up the lineup and on the powerplay. He’s top-6 or bust.
His opportunity would’ve been better playing College hockey.
As for a player like Tullio, he’s been able build on his wide set of skills at the AAA-Pro level. He’s bottom-6 or bust.
Yeah, year one in the AHL is a big adjustment for most players and it’s also hard to get away from “but he only scored 11 points last year” I suspect he also had some bad luck as 8 goals but only 3 assists and -17 suggest his linemates did not help him out with scoring.
New for The Athletic: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
https://theathletic.com/4719314/2023/07/26/oilers-evan-bouchard-stats-points/
Someone was uncharacteristically sleeping on Avalanche news. Jr. had a real nice KHL season at age 23, but not much leading up to it.
——–
Colorado Avalanche@Avalanche
We have signed forward Nikolai Kovalenko to a two-year deal.
——-
Mark Spector@SportsnetSpec·32m
This is Andrei’s son, the former Oiler, Nordique, etc. Tank Jr.
Eligible to join Colorado after the KHL season ends.
Hey, you got scooped, cub reporter Jimmy Olsen.
Worst. Reporter. Ever.
Someone send this to Boris Mironov’s son, in case he’s wandering around looking for him.
Bruins/Flames trade speculation.
https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/bruins_reportedly_prefer_elias_lindholm_trade_over_mark_scheifele_deal/s1_16454_39051524
You will notice that the last line notes that the Bruins don’t really have a lot of trade chips that would interest Calgary – or Winnipeg for that matter – and, of course, any trade would basically involve money in, money out.
Yep both teams desperate for different reasons.
Boston needs a centre in the worst way and Calgary has a bunch with Zary likely making the team.
I wonder if they might involve a third team.
Calgary could use some fans.
Run along to Fmales Nation, you’ll be accepted.
You’re one of them.
Bakersfield Condors@Condors·2m
Nate DiCasmirro has been named assistant coach https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/270d.svg Read about it here https://bit.ly/DiCasmirroAnnouncement
#condorstown
Many will recognize the name as a former Oiler farmhand. Played for the Hamilton Bulldogs and Edmonton Roadrunners though, long before Bakersfield.
https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=42533
When Tulio was on a heater mid-season, it may have been the best stretch of games by an Oilers prospect last season. He was full on peak-Yamamoto style wise but was ripping the puck and scoring goals – the kid can shoot – sneaky good one-timer.
I’m intrigued about his upside – Brendan Gallagher type player
Brendan was a beast for 5-7 years. The man would not be denied going to the net where good and bad things happen.
Patrice Bergeron announces his retirement.
https://www.nhl.com/bruins/news/a-statement-from-patrice-bergeron/c-345429764
I would expect the Krejci back to Europe or retirement announcement fairly soon now as well then.
First ballot hall of famer in 3 years time. Great career in any respect, but particularly after all the concussion problems in ’07, ’08 and again in ’11. He also endured a finger biting in the finals from Burrows. Too bad for him and Canada that the NHL hasn’t participated in any best on best tourneys since 2016, so he couldn’t add to his 6 international gold medals.
He has to be one of the all-time best draft picks. #45 in 2003 which was a deep draft and he played as an 18 year old scoring 39 points and then ended up fifth in that draft in GP and 2nd in points while also being one of the best defensive players to ever play.
I’ll take Luc Robitaille and his 668 goals drafted in round 9 overall 171 any day of the week. As a added bonus Luc’s Stepson is the grandson of Steve fricking McQueen how awesome is that.
Bergeron did his job and he did it well but I do find the hype on him all the time a little over the top.
And with this the NHL loses its one true forward defensive superstar. Bergeron was paid to play defense and he did it to an unbelievably strong and effective degree.
Go pull his fancies on PuckIQ and/or NaturalStat and place him up against some of the supposed defensive Aces out there and you’ll see a god amongst boys.
O’reilly, Barkov, Kopitar all jokers compared to Bergeron. He never slipped and always performed at a high level. All those guys are actors in comparison and savagely overpaid too boot.
Hopefully somewhere kids are learning to play the game like he played it cause he was heads and shoulders above the rest.
The Selke Trophy should be re-named in his honour.
I’ll take Bob Gainey over Bergeron, but that’s not intended as a slight. Both were fine players.
Gained won 4 while Bergeron won 6 in a league with a lot more teams and competition.
They effectively created the trophy for Gainey. He’d have probably won it 2 or 3 times more if it had existed when he started. The Russians called him the perfect hockey player.
http://www.greatesthockeylegends.com/2019/01/bob-gainey-perfect-hockey-player.html?m=1
Perhaps and Gainey was a fantastic defensive player but…
Gainey 1160 GP 239G 501P
Bergeron 1294 GP 427G 1040P
Even adjusting for era, Bergeron was a much more significant two way player.
We’re talking the Selke, not the Hart (for points) and in an era when scoring goals was much easier, Gainey’s defensive play kept pucks out of the net.
Again, I don’t think you can go wrong with either, but I’ll take Russian Coach Tikhonov’s recommendation (the best technical player ever) and adjust for his era.
Roadrunner Jacques Lemaire.
Stuffer was back on yesterday after a week off.
He insists the Oilers “have room” for one more forward and he suggest that whether that player is a $900K guy or a $1.2MM guy depends on where McLeod and Bouch come in.
I have no idea how he figures there is cap space for that type of player.
Also, he mentioned that external signing would be to bump Pederson down and he made zero mention of Lavoie until someone brought him up in a text (and then Bob mentioned that Lavoie may have priced himself out and maybe he is hoping he’ll get claimed on waivers and “we’ll see”).
I’m not sure how they could afford a $900K to $1.2MM player but Lavoie is priced out – doesn’t really make sense to me.
Also, I don’t know of this is just Bob or if its an organizational message but he was really dismisive of Lavoie – almost like he’s an after-thought as far as the opening roster…..
Maybe somebody starts the season on LTIR. Ceci? Hyman or Kane?
Well, if any of those players are hurt and aren’t able to play for 10 games and 3 weeks……
As of now, as far as I know, noone on the team will be hurt going in to camp.
Here is hoping the team does not have to go in to LTIR this season – it would be nice to have some accrued cap space in-season.
The team played a game of chicken with that last year and likely will this year. The Oilers will have 14 players at 2M or more (so 2-3 min contracts at least) and if any one of them goes down that solves all of their roster problems.
I hope there’s a contingency trade plan in place for McLeod if a deal can’t be reached before arbitration. Clearly the arbitrators are not taking into account the league-wide cap crunch that’s been going on for 3 years in making their awards.
If McLeod is going to get paid ~$2.5 I’d rather sign Danton Heinen or Noah Gregor for around half of that.
With arbitration elected, the Oilers and McLeod are committed to a contract by next week. Either they agree beforehand, or both parties have to sign whatever the arbitrator awards (no chance McLeod’s award will exceed the ~$4.5 million limit over which the Oilers could walk away making McLeod a free agent).
The arbitrator is specifically prohibited by the CBA from considering the team or the league’s cap situation in assessing the award. The only relevant evidence is comparable players and contracts.
If McLeod gets awarded more than what the Oiler budget can handle, the Oiler’s main options are:
1) pay Bouchard less (Holland has leverage over Bouchard, but not an option he would want to or be wise to use long term)
2) buyout Jack Campbell (only player on team that is both eligible to be bought out in this instance and even worth considering). This would save ~3.5 million this year, less whatever Campbell’s replacement would cost. The Oilers would have $13 million in deadcap spreadout over 8 seasons. Not a likely scenario.
3) trade one of Ceci, Kulak or Foegele and replace with a cheaper option
4) trade McLeod and replace with a cheaper option.
5) run with 20 players for a while if necessary.
6) other – who knows what other ideas they have though of?
I am sure Holland has both base plans and contingencies.
I’d prefer to keep McLeod around $2MM but I’m certainly not going to materially downgrade the roster over a slight over-payment when he’s not even at his prime years yet.
Arbitrators are expressly prohibited from taking in to account a team’s cap situation – they are only permitted to look at certain statistics and use them vis-a-vis comparables and their contracts.
I feel like their intention with Lavoie is for him to be sent down unless he forces his way onto the roster and I suspect he and his agent knew that. I think most of us had him penciled into our rosters the same way we all had Athanasiou penciled in before Holland surprisingly didn’t send him a qualifying offer. LT often says that the Oilers telegraph their moves and I think that’s what we’re seeing here. Especially if the team has Bourgault ahead of Lavoie and are hoping to get him games this year.
Holland’s general MO is to have rookies/prospects “take someone’s job” and that is Lavoie’s task.
Of course, as of right now, there is noone that has the job of 12F, its Pederson and Co. in an open comp.
They may hope that Bourgault gets NHL games this year, and they very well may have him rated higher than Lavoie as a prospect overall, but, at the same time, I think they fully expect Bourgault to need at least a few months, if not most of this season, in the AHL – Lavoie, on the other hand, COULD be ready right now (even if they rate him lower over all)
Yeah, I would keep Lavoie and play him at least 10-15 games to see what you have but I do think he really will have to be the “training camp surprise” Taylor Fedun style to make the team. I mentioned Bourgault not because I expect him to make the opening night roster but because they likely would prefer he get games in the top-9 when injury strikes mid-season instead of Lavoie getting them.
I’m not sure why they even bothered to sign Pederson, unless it was to play in Bakersfield.
But if they consider Lavoie to be out of the picture and they probably want an upgrade on Neimelianen and those three players are listed on Capfriendly . Then that’s a combined $2.4M added to the $5.6M current cap space, that gives them slightly over $8M to sign MacLeod & Bouchard and sign a competent 4c, signed for league minimum and possibly one more depth Dman, also signed for league minimum. That leaves $6.4M to sign MacLeod & Bouchard, for a 21-man roster. Is that doable?
If the roster is as we suspect and no surprises the Oilers are currently sitting with $7,157,500 in cap room with 10 forwards, 6 dmen, and 2 goalies signed. No Pederson, no Lavoie, no Neimo etc. but it does include Broberg & Holloway.
Well look at capfriendly and they have $5,609,208. current cap space with Pederson, Lavoie & Nemo, also Holloway all listed, somehow Broberg is omitted. So, you figure it out any way you want.
Yeah, I look at capfriendly all the time but because they make roster assumptions that don’t necessarily fit with what is likely to happen I always have a spreadsheet where I track these things.
Broberg is omitted because they chose Neimo instead of him which I assume is based upon their algorithm.
I think most of their assumptions are simply 1- vs. 2-way contracts (though not all ELC players like Broberg are listed in the minors). Niemalainen’s contract switched to 1-way in year 2.
Could be. I’ve never looked to see if I could discern a pattern. I just find that to follow the Oilers it is easier to just set up a spreadsheet each off season and use their data to construct my own roster scenarios.
I don’t make assumptions, I just do the math.
I suspect Pederson was signed to be a tweener/insurance for the team. Nobody seems to think he’s the opening night 4C because they keep talking about adding another 4C
LT has greater expectations for Pederson than others on here, and probably greater expectations than even the Oilers have themselves.
Holland expressly noted that Pederson and Caggiula were signed for the AHL and NHL depth. I don’t think Holland wants Pederson as the 12F to start the season but we currently are where we are.
1) Remove Niemo from the capfriendly stated roster but add Broberg.
2) They are essentially looking at near league min for the 12F/4C, be it Lavoie, Pederson or an external hire.
I’m not sure where Bob is getting upwards of $1.2MM in potential cap space for that player unless McLeod/Bouch come in much lower than things are trending.
As defmn said, with 10F, 6D and 2G signed they have $7.157M in cap space. So McLeod, Bouchard and another forward (Lavoie, Pederson or someone external) make it 21 players.
If McLeod and Bouchard sign for a combined $5.95M or less then there is $1.2M remaining that could be used for an external forward.
If the number is any higher than $6.283M then the 12th forward will need to be cheaper than Lavoie.
And if it’s any higher than $6.383M then the Oilers will need to trade someone or run a 20 man roster.
Bob seemingly said $900k to $1.2M, so that seems quite reasonable. And McLeod + Bouchard signing for $5.95M or less still doesn’t seem that improbable does it?
So, two players with league minimum or less, along with MacLeod & Bouchard for a combined $6M and Bob’s your uncle.
$6 M from $7.157 just leaves $1.157 M. They need $1.55 M to sign two minimum salary players.
Yeah, what defmn said. There can only be one.
The thing with Niemo is, his salary is below league minimum. Where as Broberg’s isn’t.
It seems every penny counts.
Aside from Broberg being a better player whose development is best served by playing in the NHL, he needs to be on the opening night roster for cap purposes.
If he isn’t on the opening night roster, if/when he were called up his salary and all of his potential bonuses count as his cap hit. If he is on the opening night roster instead, only his salary counts, and any bonuses count against next years cap (less cap space the Oilers have left at the end of this season).
He isn’t likely to hit many of his bonuses, but not having him on the roster on day 1 would mean his cap hit this season is a bit more than $1.7M, which is a bit of a problem.
And Holloway is most likely to be on the opening night roster for the same reason as Broberg – bonus calculations pretty much assure both of them are there for cap purposes.
Yes for sure. That and they are also among the top 20 Oilers players.
If you were going shopping for that 21st player – UFA or trade – do you have a name?
Toews, though he likely isn’t available. Nosek would also have been nice but he chose Jersey.
Of the available free agents my list would probably be Suter first and then one of Stastny or Staal second. IMO it would need to be a center though.
I haven’t looked at potential trades, but a quick look on Capfriendly for -active players, -listed as centers, -not on ELC, -make less than $1.2M, doesn’t reveal a lot of particularly appealing options.
I had the same impression for trades. And I think we both see that as a long shot at this point. There are a few GM’s that have to be paddling like crazy under water but it looks pretty calm from above.
Hurt in camp, hurt throughout the season – Savoie just never really got a chance to get comfortable in pro hockey and gain traction. He did have some small stretches where he showed that high end offensive skill.
Here is hoping he has a great summer and stays healthy through the year – my expectation is for him to get comfortable, gain traction and end the season in the top 6 and PP1 – hopefully 20G and maybe .7 PPG?
Savoie probably should’ve played another year of College hockey against his age peers. Pro hockey can take its toll, especially on a 5’9″ 20-year old.
I can see his boxcars inflating in his second season of pro hockey. Especially with a few veterans who can set him up to cash.
Carter is 192 lbs so he is solid enough to handle himself. Injuries can happen in college as well – look at Holloway. And how much more hockey was he going to learn in Denver? He was already pretty dominant at that level, being a Hobie Baker finalist in his last season. That AHL toll/grind (injuries aside) probably accelerates his development / adjustment to the pro game. He probably played as many games in the AHL as he would have in Denver, if not more.
And pretty hard to tell a kid not to sign that pro contract that guaranteed him at least $500,000 (signing bonuses, plus 3 seasons of AHL minimum). He gets hurt badly in college, where he is not advancing his game that much, and his chance could be gone.
It was a poor development year for Savoie, and he didn’t get much of a chance to play to his strengths up the lineup and on the powerplay. He’s top-6 or bust.
His opportunity would’ve been better playing College hockey.
As for a player like Tullio, he’s been able build on his wide set of skills at the AAA-Pro level. He’s bottom-6 or bust.
Yeah, year one in the AHL is a big adjustment for most players and it’s also hard to get away from “but he only scored 11 points last year” I suspect he also had some bad luck as 8 goals but only 3 assists and -17 suggest his linemates did not help him out with scoring.
The Athletic: The men turning pro this fall are a reflection of some fine draft work in later rounds.
https://theathletic.com/4713871/2023/07/24/oilers-prospects-petrov-ahl/