So the Bakersfield Condors scored 181 goals and allowed 173 at even strength in 2025-26. While mildly interesting, the real value comes in giving us a line in the sand to evaluate individual defensemen.
The Condors didn’t have a pile of true prospects on the blue in 2025-26, just four really and I’m not sure the organization is completely convinced of Beau Akey. I think they should be.
When Beau Akey was on the ice at even strength during his rookie AHL season, the Condors were 33-25, 57 percent at even strength. Without Akey, Bakersfield was exactly 50 percent goal share. That shows it was a good team, made better when the young , mobile RH was on the ice. He scored 2-8-10 in 42 games, meaning very little offense. However, he didn’t get much power play time, and his even strength totals (1-7-8, .19 pts-game) are about what you might expected from a defenseman. He had a good year. He is righthanded. Valuable.
We know he is undersized and a fine skater, but the math says he is also able to defend despite being 6.0, 173 pounds according to the AHL website. My hope for Akey: adding strength and winning more battles. He has some very nice skills.
A strong outscoring number can signal an NHL career even from a longshot candidate. Vincent Desharnais of the Condors posted a 66 percent goal share at even strength in 2021-22. When he was off the ice, Bakersfield’s share was 52 percent. That’s a significant gap. Desharnais was 25 when he did it, and was in the NHL the following season. He has dressed for 218 NHL games. Akey is much smaller (Desharnais is 6.07, 225) and his goal share gap (57 to 50 percent) is less than Desharnais’ (66 to 52 percent) but he is also five years younger.
Damien Carfagna’s rookie season was quality. He scored more offensively (.27 points-60 at even strength) than Akey, and his goal share gap (57 percent to 50 percent) a match. He is lefthanded and 23, but was also more durable in his first pro season. In an expansion draft, I’d take Akey because he is RH and they are unicorns. But it’s close.
Alec Regula is also a prospect of note, he struggled badly in the NHL before recovering his game with Bakersfield. He was in the AHL at a time when the team was struggling, and went 15-18 (45 percent) while the team (including all games) posted a 52 percent advantage. Regula scored .5 points-game at evens, that is his strength. RH defensemen get extra chances, I’ll be interested to see if he gets a long look at camp.
Finally, Atro Leppannen. In his first 18 games of the season, he posted 10-20 even strength goals and eight power-play points. Absolute beautful chaos. After that, he went 29-24 at even strength and finished with .38 points-60 at evens. He’s a unique and fun player to watch. Overall, he delivered 47 percent of the goals at even strength, the Condors 52 percent without him.
I have zero idea who will win NHL work from this group in the years to come. Maybe no one. The math tells us Akey and Carfagna are the two men we should be tracking.
I posted about the UFA’s the Oilers should go hard after this summer. I just want to add more context.
30 year old Hyman signed with Edmonton after scoring 57 goals over his previous 3 seasons.
Soon to be 31 year old Marchment has scored 63 goals over his last 3 seasons.
Soon to be 30 year old McMann has scored 64 goals in his previous 3 seasons.
Both players are big & fast, both players have produced with skill and both could be acquired for under $6 million per season. And both players could reasonable produce 25+ goals each with 29 or 97 as their Centerman.
It is time to give Leon & Connor the help they deserve. These players still have much to prove and their best seasons are still likely to come, unlike all of the undersized and disappointing Jeff Skinner, Arvidsson and Mangiapane.
Regarding Kapanen, I see him in a similar light, despite this season’s playoff production, he hasn’t been muxh of a producer. He’s scored 56 goals over his last 6 seasons. I would argue he is not a top 9 winger on a contending team. It makes zero sense to resign him, if the organization wants to win Stanley. He doesn’t belong anywhere near 29 or 97.
I like both players, but I don’t think marchment is fast. He’s one of the slower players in the league.
True, but MM covers a lot of ground. He was 71st in distance skated last season. That is something.
The last time this team deployed 2 skilled large, but not fast wingers in the top 6, Maroon & Lucic scored a combined 50 goals. Only Hyman, Nuge and Kane have had scored 20+ goals as regular top 6 wingers in multiple seasons.
Aside from those 3, onlly Yamamoto (20) , Foegele (20) and Roslovic (21) have hit the 20 goal mark in the McDrai era. This is a massive miss by this organization.
McDavid and Draisaitl deserve productive wingers, Marchment & McMann would fit that bill.
Well let’s be honest about this, for the last 5-7 years, Nuge and Hyman have been a mainstay in the top 6 and Draisaitl has played a lot of wing. There is only 4 wing positions in the top 6 and they have done it multiple times.
Woodguy first argued against my 3D (Qual of team, comp, ZS) Player situation expected avg. then built a quality of comp site.
Not knowing that Fenwick did not capture Open SH variance = no value.
As for Four top,60 Def Dmen that was Part c of my final 4 roster theory #50. But had been identified by me on here in 07/08.
One penetrate redux Dman had made cup finals w/ Fld, Buf, CHI.
Rhett Warener. We see multiple Dmen move to other teams & Succeed.
Top 60 def D Penetrate (Stevens, Larson, McNabb) & Open SH (Languay, Russell) Redux def D is critical.
We had elite playoff Def D Broberg, Desharnais, Kulak, who critical to PK as well leave.
Had put same emphasis on NFL I see Sumer sports analytics (Mike mayock, etc) mirroring the key identifiers I had discussed on Bootleg football twitter ( Cohorts Jeremiah, PFF, etc) last 4 years.
Team Works recently acquired PFF data for 100M.
I spoke of Sports IQ video tracking having to steal my theories to allow their data to have any value.
Team works had Acquired them!
For how much will be important!
luckily was at NAT oilwell 99’ doing development & bids RUS vs Chenney when they entered into a intellect property precedent agreement. 8-25% or greater.
I’m also enjoying watching Taylor Hall succeed in these playoffs. My favorite Oiler during his time here. Man, did the Hurricanes ever make out like bandits in the Rantanen trades. Great work by their management.
As per the Fourth Period, Bruce Cassidy being considered for the LA coaching job.
https://x.com/i/status/2053142640410169833
Hoo boy. Don’t lose this opportunity Edmonton!!!
I have feelings about Taylor Hall having a very good playoffs from a middle six role – I’m not sure what these feelings are but they are feelings
Yeah it is very fun to watch. Happy for him.
I’m pulling for him now the Oilers are out
And another point on the OT winning goal.
Carolina is the first team since 1987 to win 8 straight games to start the playoffs.
No team won 8 straight games in the 1987 playoffs.
They are also one win away from becoming the first NHL team to sweep two best-of-seven series to open a playoff.
Since the current format of four rounds of seven games began in 1987, no team has started 8-0.
https://www.nhl.com/hurricanes/news/preview-round-2-game-4-at-philadelphia
The cannonball is back.
Some guy named Brett Kulak is 3rd in TOI/ game at 21:12 for the Avs.
He looked pretty done earlier this year in Edmonton.
There must be something in the water.
We moved him at his lowest, same as it always was.
His young RD partner Sam Malinski would be a top pairing defenseman on many teams.
Malinski just the latest Colorado success story…an undrafted Cornell grad picked up for nothing
Woodguy always preached that good teams have 4 legit dmen. Which is true.
However, your Dmen don’t need to all be world beaters. Look at Carolina. Slavin is excellent but the rest are all just pretty good/average. Carolina forwards are exceptional and committed to checking all over the ice and it makes a huge difference.
Nikishin is playing 3RD on his offside. Just saying.
I’ve mentioned before that Carolina hasbeen drafting and stockpiling high end Russian D prospects.
Tulsky has at least a six pack waiting in the wings with their development paid by KHL teams.
Fire Jackson, Bowman, and Knoblauch.
Hire Shanahan, Spezza, and Todd Nelson.
Finally starting to see a few of the local heads mention Mason Marchmant as a UFA pickup if Columbus doesn’t resign him. Not sure how big the bag is that his agent will be asking for, but he is exactly the type of forward this team needs in the top 9 and can easily play top 6. He is huge at 6.5/220 , good skater, hits hard and is a beast in the corners and in front of the net ( which the Oilers could really use) He is a bit of a dick and can get under opponents skin. He will throw down if needed , But he can score goals. Is a 20 plus goal scorer avg over the last 3. ( only 19 in 68 games this season) . When traded to Columbus this year he was unreal with 15 goals and 32 points in 39 games and a plus 21. He will be 31 this summer so you would not want to give him a contract that is more than 3-4 years max. No clue what he would cost but probably 5- 5.5
Sounds like the power forward type, at the point where they start aging out.
Not definitive by any means, but capwages.com has MM projected at 3x$5.34M for his next contract.
Jarry for Demko. Vancouver might do it depending on how much of Demko’s contract is covered by insurance.
They’ll get that # 1 pick or die tryin’
Nurse would thrive in Boston, Jarry would be an excellent tutor for young Dipietro, while Pastranak gets to set the world ablaze riding shotgun to Draisaitl and Swayman brings his top tier starting talents to the crease.
Nurse, Jarry, Howard, picks
Pastrnak, Swayman
Savoie/McDavid/Hyman
Podz/Drai/Pasta
Kane(Evander)/Nuge/Kapanen
Dach/Samanski/Frederic
Ekholm/Bouch
Walman/Murphy
Vinny/Emberson
Statsney
Swayman
Ingram
Bold Summer.
If I’m the Boston GM and Bowman makes that offer I hang up and never pick up again when Bowman calls.
You’ll never be a GM, so?
Are you planning on giving up every first round pick until 2040? Because that’s what it would talk not to have Don Sweeny laugh his ass off and hang up.
I won’t ask you to do Boston next, but sticking with the Oilers, assuming you can trade Janmark, what you’ve proposed is $91m (including the Campbell buyout and cap penalty for 26/27), which leaves you $13m to sign Kane, Kappy, Ingram, Stastney, Dach, Murphy & Vinny, which is probably not enough.
Pasta wants to win, Boston has no chance of being that.
Kap 2
Ingram 2
Dach 1.5
Kane 2
Murphy 3
Vinny 1
Stastney 1.5
13m
There’s a way to work it out, Kane comes for the cup run, Murphy takes 1 mil less for cup runs, Vinny comes back to what he loves, maybe he gets 1.5. Stastney doesnt really matter could be anyone in the 7 hole. Ingram can come or go.
Time for a big bold splash.
Boston seeing they’re not in the top tier would welcome draft picks and American sniper Howard.
Have the Oilers acquired the top 3 picks in this year’s draft to trade to Boston?
Playing a puck optional, mobility neutral VD on his offside wouldn’t seem like putting him (or the team) in a position to succeed.
To me, the argument centres around replacing Emberson with Vinny, and running Statsney full time.
Problem, beyond the aforementioned, is always going to centre around the fact that Vinny will (likely) be looking to be overpaid relative to both his contributions and what EDM can allot to his skillset/station.
instead of just re-signing everyone we most desperately need to bring in a #1LW. We need to add to the top of the roster and not just fill the middle. Everything will then fall into place
Why is that the highest priority? The Oilers were a good team 5v5 and on the PP. Our PK is bad, we leak rush chances and our goalies are below league average save % and our guys were getting run at and injured in the playoffs. Those seem like the biggest problems to solve. When I look at our top 6, we have McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Podkolzin as locks and Nuge, Savoi, and Kapanen (with Drai) as reasonable options. There have been years past where we couldn’t field a legit top6. We cheered for Reider, Kahun, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi, Rattie, etc but they were not at the level of any of our current options. Not saying we can’t upgrade but is that the priority?
Nuge is declining before our eyes, is a 3rd line player
Kapanen is wildly inconsistent and injured and despite being 30 in offseason has never been a top 6 forward except for just a few games
Savoie not a guarantee.
Once you start pushing everyone down the lineup you will find they will find their roles
I would like to see Bobby McCann (3 years preferably, or 4 to get a lower AAV) & Mason Marchment (2-3 years) added, both would add size and offense.
Marchment was almost a point per game player with Fantilli and Marchenko, both would give a boost to the top 6 LW positions.
McMann scored 29 playing up & down lineups. These 2 potentially could add 60 goals to the line-up if deployed properly.
The 3rd line could be Centered by Nuge, Podz on RW & Howard (or Berezkin) on LW.
The 4th line would be Dach & Samanski + ?.
Re-sign Murphy for 2 years & Ingram for 2 seasons at a reasonable number.
Somehow, some way offload Frederic & it is likely Nurse is also gone to free up cap space.
Michael McCarron would be a nice UFA pick-up as the 4th line C between Samanski & Dach. He should be too expensive, but will be in high demand.
McMann – McD – Hyman
Marchment – Drai – Savoie
Howard – RNH – Podz
Berezkin – Samanski – Dach
Long Saturday morning post but worth the read if you are open to a differing but hopefully balanced opinion with your morning coffee 😉
There is A LOT of rose coloured glasses takes by local media lately (not LT) regarding roster construction and looking favourably at Holland compared to Bowman/Jackson that I think was very much driven by Drai’s comments listing the players from the 2024 cup run that we missed. Don’t get me wrong, Bowman has royally screwed up a couple of times but IMO is getting the Bouchard treatment of everyone focusing on his mistakes and villainizing him and not seeing how all other GMs are making the same sort of mistakes.
The ironic thing is that Drai and media are lamenting the loss of Foegele, McLeod, and Ceci who were probably 3 of the most villainized players of that 2024 run and fans were very on side with them going, while the top 4 players these playoffs were Drai plus 3 Bowman adds in Podz, Kapanen, and Murphy. And lots of talk of if only we had Dickinson and Henrique healthy (both Jackson/Bowman adds) things would have been different. The biggest strugglers relative to their ability this year – Fred was Bowman but the rest were McDavid, Hyman, RNH, Ekholm, Bouchard which is injury driven for sure but not Bowman. Ingram wasn’t great but he was Skinner level performance. The 4th line Bowman adds of Dach and Samanski held their own and didn’t cost you nor did Emberson. Walman was a small plus.
Again, not saying Bowman is brilliant, but I think he is just your average GM that makes good and bad moves and this describes about 80% of the GMs in the league. I think the fans reactions have been hyperbolized. Heck, even arguably a top 3 GM in the league, Jim Nill, makes head scratching moves every year: Ceci was his big trade deadline D upgrade 2 years ago, follows that up with signing Dumba and Lybushkin as his upgrades in the offseason, and his big upgrade this year was Tyler Myers who stunk. All 3 years Dallas lost to an underdog in the playoffs in 6 games or less but we would instantly take Nill here. Not to mention TBs 4 straight 1st round losses.
IMO Holland was much worse than Bowman. He started with way more value and assets in the organization and got better incredibly slowly. The Nurse overpayment, Campbell signing, Keith trade, extremely lacklustre deadlines aside from Ekholm, and always adding in an extra 2nd round pick was crippling. Again Bowman’s Jarry trade was in convo for the worst move out of everything but his next worse move, the Frederic signing, as dumb as it was, was a $1M overpayment and 4 year extra term in a super rising cap environment. The initial Mangiapane contract was not a bad calculated bet – they got it wrong but it’s defensible and the risk of maximizing your roster in the offseason where you don’t have to trade assets to improve unlike the deadline is that it gives you limited cap flexibility later on. To me, that’s just the risk of doing business and it just didn’t turn out but it wasn’t a bad bet. Nowhere near the same awfulness of Nurse’s $2M overpayment in a flat cap or the bad Campbell bet x 5 years.
Long rant but Jackson/Bowman have done a much better job at creating value for super cheap a la Podz, Kapanen, Samanski, Dach, and Ingram plus actually creating a real development system that does not get talked about enough. To me, their biggest mess up right now is not implementing a coach that sees eye to eye on player value and deployment.
— I think this is fair.
— all this organization needed in the McDrai era was 10 years of “average” management and 10 years of “average” goaltending acquisitions and coaching that matched the rosters
— I suppose we hope for everyone being 100% next year and healthy for playoffs
— I just can’t see this management team doing any other than small ball improvements and maybe that’s the right approach.
— I fear though just as a fan Godot is going to be cranking up a “McDavid departure death watch”
— A slow start like the Oil do, some crappy losses and it’s going to be just awful
— Next season so seminal for Oil future as much as any season they have played IMO: so many outcomes depending on what their result is.
I do not think I have ever done such a thing. I do not particularly think this roster is fixable in “McDavid time”. I expect the worst, but hope for the best.
Plentiful B and C tier prospects and free agents found by Bowman will not likely work in the time frame required.
With any coach, just as with Knoblach last season, contending while trialing many new players, experienced and inexperienced, is not an easy coaching task.
I think it requires taking bold risks, which are as likely to fail as succeed.
— no I’m just referring to your famous death marches when we stunk …
That was “hunter…”
Thoughtful post! But I’m still struggling with giving Bowman/Jackson credit.
— Jackson GMing did a lot of harm
— To the extent Jackson vs Holland is to blame for the offer sheets is also arguably the most harm to this organization, possibly ever. Two bonafide draft and develops under 23 lost for free. I don’t know who gets blamed most for that.
Holland, 100%.
Bob said the other day on air that he was in the room when someone forewarned Old Dutch that offer sheets were coming for both players and that he had plenty of time to consummate the deal.
Jackson should be fired. Losing two number one picks trending as top players was unforgivable bungling. Whatever happened during that GM handover is not forgivable.
Bowman has been fine. He understands. He knows roster, he sees the weakness, he knows the team needs youth, and it needs some ruggedness. Mixed bag but right direction.
Knobloch i don’t need to criticize but he has run his course. Everything this mild mannered man could bring, has arrived. He needs time to develop further NHL skills. He did not “bring them to finals” He was at the rudder but they were well on their way regardless.
Team needs a change up. Not because they are bad, but because they got stale. So Coaching must change. Can Knoblauch change his coaching significantly? No, we already seen this.
I agree that the outcome of losing Holloway and Broberg was a F-. However, I am more concerned with the process as that is more meaningful in predicting future success.
How much do we blame Jackson for not having a GM in place for start of offseason? If he addressed this during the cup run and we lost, do we blame him for the distraction costing us?How much do we blame his moves during the offseason? The UFA signings and trades were lauded almost universally at the time and people were not concerned about losing Foegele and were happy with the value return and cap benefits of McLeod for Savoie.The offer sheets are the big fail but still some nuance that makes it not as super awful as many portray it. I think it’s very fair to lay Broberg on Jackson as he ran an agency firm and should know the risks of Broberg being a prime target. I think it’s also fair to judge not matching Holloway at a relatively low cost. Both big mistakes.Where I think some lenience is deserved is people judging “letting” Holloway get offer sheeted as in the history of the NHL, it was unprecedented to have a double offer sheet. You can also see his reasoning for wanting to grind a super value deal out of Holloway for when he thought he had leverage. Lastly, I think it is unreasonable thinking that Holloway and Broberg would be the same players here that they are in STL. They needed opportunity like 1st pairing, 1st line, top PP, and go-to players for 3v3 and high leverage situations to blossom that, rightly or wrongly, wasn’t going to happen quickly here, at least with our coaching staff. We had amazing players taking these spots already and decent other bets as next up options. I honestly think Holloway ends up with Podz-like value here – some things Holloway is better at like scoring and speed and some things Podz is better at like health and truculence. Again, having both would be absolutely the best scenario but you don’t get Podz if you don’t lose Holloway. For Broberg, the L side was roadblocked by Ekholm and Kulak acquisitions who provided supreme playoff value and that was the price paid to maximize winning in the present. I still think he absolutely should have been placed in the Ceci or Desharnais spot and his cup run value should have been recognized but I don’t think he becomes an Olympic level D-man here in that role.
All sane and salient points.
Not all us lauded the moves in 24. Some of us said it was a mistake to sign the UFAs and lose Broberg and Holloway.
It sounds like you are rationalizing the moves after the fact. Anyone watching Broberg and Holloway that season could see the talent and the confidence emerging. And Broberg was playing top 4 with Nurse in the playoffs, Holloway was playing wing with Draisaitl. Those players would have become the same players in Edmonton that they did in St Louis.
Broberg had almost no PP time until after he signed his 6 x $8 million dollar deal. He got is new deal based entirely on even strength play, defending, and PK.
In less than 120 games, he jumped every left veteran LD the Blues, and every D on the team to become the #1D on the left side and on the team.
Holloway did not get any significant time with Thomas until after the Olympics this year. Last year he played mostly with Schenn.
The error was not to match or not. The unforgivable was bungling handover of general managers.
Who was to get these guys signed? I don’t buy it was using leverage, that implies somebody purposely chose to ignore them.
No I think it was Hollands to do, but he didn’t give a dam cause he was outbound. Bowman arrives after the offer sheets were received.
This was Jackson.
Jackson with little experience signs Arvi and Skinner, drops the ball on Bro and Holloway
He was moving GM’s and he did not button up the most important elements of his roster growth.
Rumblings got out, they always do. Probably pointed out by Holland’s gang.
And in walks St Loius, shitbirds.
Jackson should have been the shortest tenure VP.
This is an excellent post Ryder! 👍
A few things.
I think it’s naive to believe that Stan Bowman was not involved in transactions before he was “officially” hired.
The league decision lifted his suspension on July 1 with him eligible to sign a contract on July 10th. His was announced 2 weeks later.
The decision not to match on Broberg and Holloway came on August 10th almost a full month after Bowman was hired so is on his side of the ledger.
You suggested Henrique was a Jackson/Bowman add…but he wasn’t.
He was acquired at the 2024 deadline from the Ducks in return for 1st and 4th round picks. The Ducks selected top D prospect Stian Solberg with the pick.
Jackson did re-sign Henrique to a 2 year deal but inexplicably gave the mid 30’s player in steep decline a full NMC.
You mention a “real development system”. What changed and what does that look like?
Would Sather have re-signed Henrique or Dickenson? No way in hell.
Sather would fire everybody.
Nope…not a chance.
And he wouldn’t have given up a first round pick plus a fourth to acquire Henrique nor another first in a trade for Dickinson.
Massive waste of draft capital.
I doubt that Bowman having input before his official hire is the least bit unconventional.
Very likely he, the owner and Jackson explored his vision for the team well before that is customary in all GM hiring decisions. For example, he would have been well aware of the offer sheets.
Henrique was not an “add’ he was an extension and his peak performance was in 2015-16 in New Jersey when he scored 30 goals and 50 points. His 6 goals and 9 points in only 22 games played should have been a red flag at the age of 33.
The following season, he managed only 18 goals and 27 points so if that wasn’t a steep decline I would like to know what is and his further deterioration to 18 points in another injury riddled season with GF of only 34.8% hammers that point home.
GM’s get paid a lot of money to see that coming.
As for Kalle Larsson, he just completed his 3rd season as Senior Director of Player Development and if the best you can point to is one average rookie and two tweeners, I would suggest you take a deep dive into the progression of prospects in other organization.
Start alphabetically.
Once Jackson was hired Holland was a lame duck for the rest of the year. The Woody firing and the hire of K.K had very little to do with Holland. I believe the Oilers were spiralling 2-9-1 when Woody was fired. It doesn’t take a genius to know that Bowman hypothetically knew well in advance he was replacing Holland soon after his abolishment was lifted. All you have to do is look at the Tompkins signing there’s 100’s of goalies that had the same resume as Tompkins yet a old Hawk from Bowman’s roster gets signed before the Bowman hire. Bowman has managed to get us bigger-younger up front he’s basically done a mini rebuild in his vision. It’s too bad Connor-Leon were hurt as the path to the Cup was in through Colorado.
There was nothing preventing Bowman from discussing things long before the ban was lifted…he just couldn’t be signed to a contract.
A tiny quibble to an otherwise excellent post – saying 80% of GMs are average, while being a rhetorical flourish, doesn’t math well on a blog that does math.
Beyond that, I agree with the idea Bowman is getting the Bouchard treatment by local media, wishing for guys back who they ran out the door.
Jackson/Bowman lost Broberg and Holloway. That is a bigger sin than anything you have mentioned, and that is what is crippling this franchise right now.
Technically true but Ken Holland and Jay Woodcroft (Dave Manson) had massive roles in the situation getting to where it did with each of those players.
A lot of cope.
Holland took too long but he built a Stanley Cup roster by the end with a core built for sustained contention, and Jackson and Bowman blew it up in one summer.
Skinner, Bouchard, Broberg, Nurse, Ekholm, McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman, McLeod, Holloway. Only Ekholm in his 30’s.
Two years later, and Jackson and Bowman have only subtracted four guys from that and added only Podkolzin, and Podkolzin could have been added without any substraction. Savoie can be added if he progresses next year.
I don’t know see it as cope but rather trying to stay objective and believing most issues/situations are shades of grey instead of black and white.
Good teams (the teams that are well-managed) tend to lock up their best young talent before they blow up, even if they don’t quite merit the money yet. It’s so much better than signing players on the decline who may merit their money in year 1, but are less likely to hold value.
Holland, Jackson, and Bowman share the blame, and I’m not quite sure how to apportion it. But Bowman had the final say and should have matched. I know this is futile–all water under the bridge–but the too-early end-of-year reflection (maybe it’s my personal melancholy) makes me think of what could have been if we had Broberg at 7×7 instead of Walman, or Holloway at 4×4 instead of Frederic for the next 8 years. Broberg and Holloway wouldn’t have been quite so successful on the Oilers, at least the year after, so I think those numbers are realistic. And I think those contracts would have represented great value once they moved into feature roles, pushing down some of our aging players and sustaining the McDavid cluster.
LT wrote an article recently about how the young talent is starting to bubble up, and I’m hopeful that’s the case. The problem is that I think it might be too late to align with and sustain the McDavid window. Savoie looked good at times in the regular season, but McLeod is closer to what we need and have been looking for (spending assets on) at the moment. His speed, forechecking, and PK ability are perfectly suited to a series like the one we played against Anaheim. Savoie was mostly invisible. He may be a value match for McLeod one day, maybe quite soon, but even soon could be too late.
In short, we lost an entire cohort of players entering their primes right now. You could argue we couldn’t have kept them all, but the money we’ve spent since then, much of it poorly, makes me disagree. At the very least, we certainly could have sold those players for better assets than we received as compensation. All to say that, for me, this is the original sin of the Bowman era–I sympathize with the fact that he was thrown right into the fire here–and I think he’ll have a hard time overcoming it.
Not that I think there’s no hope or chance at redemption. Even if we lose McDavid, maybe Bowman is forming a new, deeper, more organized and self-sustaining cluster around Draisaitl. That future, despite realizing our worst fears, could be quite interesting – and easy to cheer for. (A team of Podz (Podzes, Podzi?) is what I’m imagining, haha.)
Would Howard fit with McDavid?
At Olympics, Celebrini was a fit whereas McKinnon was not. Reason being is style.
Based on his history, Howard is a quick strike forward, getting to open ice, small moves, quick shot. McDavid doesn’t need a puck carrier, he needs a man to get open, he’ll find him.
Of course, he also needs puck retrievers and Howard might struggle in the NHL corners.
I like Savoie with McDavid and believe Howard with Draisaitl could work.
So, that means we aren’t doing the Nurse, Howard for Byfield deal? 🙁
I do think Howard might be in play. That isn’t breaking news, the club has very little of value to deal. That said, Howard has talent and I think he’ll play on a skill line in the NHL. If Leon is his center, Howard is a lucky man.
Your original proposal was something I could definitely get behind. It would have been great use of Howard (off setting whatever negative value, if any, Holland might see in the Nurse contract). Keeping Howard is fine, too. Many are the pathways to success (and failure, for that matter).
I agree (would note that I think both would/will do well with Drai – he seems to make every linemate better, not necessarily the case with McDavid…..)
I have heard several times from some media types that its not the coach and its all about the players.
I would point to Las Vegas.
Yes, it was the players underperforming. But once again the Knights show us what kind of aggressiveness an organization can have. A new coach comes in. He motivates, tunes, drives some small changes to lines or systems.
And away they go back to first place and round two of playoffs.
I know this wasn’t your intent, but your post reinforces that change needs to happen higher up the chain than both the players AND the coach. I really believe that the Oilers don’t have winning processes in place. It starts with Jeff Jackson- how can a man running an organization do so effectively not even living in the same city?? It filters from there. I believe Jackson was hired because of McDavid. Making decisions around one player is not a winning formula. They need to start from scratch and get the hire at the top of the chain right. The ‘winning effect’ of this house cleaning may not happen in the 2 year McDavid window, but that is a fear-based approach to decision-making and it will not serve the team in the short or long term anyway.
— yeah I had put this aside but was really angry and vocal about it at the time. This is what you get though.
— But your leader flying on planes showing up calling meetings and “doing work” based on a commute schedule
— I’d be pissed if my boss was doing this. It’s a poor message and just sub optimal
— heck Sundin is moving continents with his family for a lesser role.
— just hubris. He’s not an agent anymore with clients all around the continent. Unacceptable
Agreed. Don’t be surprised when it’s Coffey replacing him. I don’t believe that’s the right path, but it’s highly probable 😉
I’ll add, he’s been a good foot soldier for Daryl, which I fear will result in the organization employing the Peter Principle at their peril.
Im mostly with you. I doubt Jackson was hired because of McDavid. They were not buddies, its an agent. Only benefit might be one of familiarity in that Jackson would be shaking a lot of hands and keeping in touch with Oilers brass.
Im totally with you in regards to Jackson. I see no value there. Not enough engagement and experience. Lost Broberg and Holloway. Terrible.
Estimated numbers by Stauffer (as good as info as a fan can get) for bringing back UFAs:
Ingram $2-2.3M x 2 years
Murphy $3.5-4M x 3 years
Dickinson $3.75-4.25M x 4 years
Kapanen $2-2.5M x 3 years
Roslovic $3M x 3 years (said unlikely in Edmonton)
Ingram and Murphy are easy yeses for me. Kapanen a yes especially if closer to $2M. Dickinson and Roslovic would be no to give opportunity to younger and cheaper players
I would love to See Dickinson lead a third line. What he brings is what this team needs, and they need to change. Old Oilers are predictable, they need updates.
Yes, as pointed out by many, if he slides to third line center he costs too much. We don’t need him “anchoring” the 4th line beside boat anchor Frederic.
“slides to 4th line center”
The Oilers are already paying one 4th line in Frederic nearly $4 million. Dickenson would be paying another 4th liner nearly $4 million. And one blocks all the spots to break in players from Bakerfield.
We just finished Dickenson experiment #1 with Henrique. How did that turn out? It would have made more sense to sign the actual 4th liner in Carrick to 4th line money (and a right shot to boot), rather than sign than the hope signing of Henrique and soon Dickenson, who will be overpaid 4th liners, the moment one signs them.
I don’t want Dickinson back anywhere near the protected contract but who is he blocking? They would be re-signing him with a 3C premise and Samanski would be 4C.
There is no other prospect center coming next seasons (that’s currently in the org). Howard replaces Roslovic. Hutson and Berezkin would need to “win spots”.
I remain hopeful that Frederic recovers to a 3rd line level of play but, as of now, we aren’t close to that – he’s got it in him though.
3.5M is the new 2.5M
Contract aside, hes the first guy to show up who wants to specialize in the defensive third line center job. He gets it. Maybe he cant do it, thats a shame, but we need him or a younger version to lead. We need that third line to be built rock solid.
And Samanski to take the junior spot on that line.
You are confusing 3rd line center with 4th line centre.
Look at the 3rd line centres on most of the remaining teams, or Florida with Lundell, they are two way guys, not defense first guys.
Your third line has to score.
Dickenson is a 4th line centre on a contender.
It doesn’t matter what he specializes in, he needs to have a positive goal share and in order to do that he needs to put up offense. He is a career 25pts per 82, minus 37, and on the wrong side of 30. I have no clue how that can be worth more than $2-2.5M for 4C.
Ingram is coming off $1.95m AAV, in a free agency market with few goalies. He was given a second chance with the Oilers that began with him starting over from scratch and ended up with him earning the starter’s crease and declared as such. Lots written about how much he overcame this season. That’s going to be leveraged by his agent for a raise that may be out of the Oilers price range given they have $8m of the cap already used up by the position. He may not feel he has to give any team a discount with his struggles in the rear-view mirror.
I would do Ingram and Kapanen at those numbers. If they are not trading McDavid I would do Murphy as well.
Dickinson is too much money and term for a 3C with little offense. If you have Hyman, Savoie and Kapanen you don’t really need Roslovic. I would rather spend the money on a left winger or a younger 3C.
Signing those Chicago acquisitions to those deals would be just awful. Too long for both and too much for players that don’t contribute in the attacking zone.
There will be $2M and less players available who can do what they do. There always are.
The overrating of these players types by both media and hockey guys can turn into an absolute roster-killing trend very quickly. Do we need to have another Mark Fayne conversation?
And imagine being the guy sitting across from Kapanen explaining to him that he’s worth so much less than designated long-term popcorn eater Trent Frederic…oof.
I agree on Dickinson but $3.5MM to $4MM for 3 years is a big discount to market for Murphy. I’m not over-rating him, I understand his limited offensive skills but he is a legit tough, defensive first 2RD and PK1 guy.
He played 19 tough 5 on 5 minutes per game in the playoffs, with Darnell Nurse, and was 7-4 goals.
He chipped in with 2G/1A (and actually has a history of that in the playoffs – against the Oilers year ago).
We are talking like 3.5% of the cap here (and reducing).
Ingram’s is fine. The other four are all at least one year too long, two years too long with respect to Dickenson.
Bowman loves handing out those Seabrook contracts. He already gave on to Walman and Frederic. Two more incoming with Murphy and Dickenson.
Kapanen has earned a 2-year deal, but three years is nuts.
That’s right in the range of where I’ve been thinking for Ingram and Kap and I sign both those deals – would really like Kap to come in closer to the $2MM range though.
I do think Murphy would take less to sign in Edmonton (he’s spoken about how much money he’s already made and really wants to be here) but I would be surprised if it was below $4.5MM in particular with only 3 years of term (which would be great).
Don’t touch Dickinson at the AAV or term – bye.
Howard will replace Roslovic – sail on.
Oilers should bring back Vinny
Interesting that Draisaitl mentioned Vince when he was running of a number of players they lost in his ramble about taking a step back.
Quite aside from how durable & great in the wrestling match of the post season he is, he’s well liked & bled blue while here. An easy resigning if possible.
He’d help on the PK but Emberson is much superior of a goal suppresser at 5 on 5 so where does he play?
One of the things I’m really starting to wonder about with the Oilers is if they’d been better off not obsessing about competitive ‘windows’ and the need to ‘win now’ with Connor and Leon. The reality is the team that drafted those two superstars was still filled with holes throughout the roster. They tried to stay patient with Holland but the push to ‘win now’ quickly evolved into trading all the good draft picks at the deadline. Now the cupboards are pretty bare aside for some college free agents.
In many ways, the club may be in much better position now as a serious contender if they’d stay committed to drafting and developing to build the team around #97 and #29.
I don’t know if Connor and Leon would have been patient enough to let that process play out, but in hindsight it sure seems like the slow build would have worked better than the quick fix has.
It’s not that. It’s that they had no idea how to “win now”. They did it wrong.
Modern UFA sports requires a very different approach than in the past. You focus on high peaks from a strong, but compact base.
They tried to lock in third line wingers and marginal defencemen…
My bias is towards @Grover’s approach —and to start now, w Euro and college guys, even when all hands are flailing about the sky falling and windows closing. Notice like the present to be smart for longer term team success (winning, and profitability).
BUT, I’m interested in your thesis.
Can you show me examples of teams who’ve won the Cup by emptying the cupboards of draft picks in favour of UFAs? Clubs that remain legitimate contenders over a 5-10 year period?
Execution could definitely have been better, but the philosophy they chose (win now) significantly increased the level of difficulty and left them minimal room for error. Even when they had youth marinating in Holloway and Bromberg, they lost them because those players were well aware that they were not a priority in the hysteria over pushing for a Cup now.
One area of poor execution I fully agree on is the contract misfires. Whether they chose slow build or quick fix, Oiler mgmt continually shot themselves in the foot with poor cap and asset management. Those errors would have undermined either philosophy.
I like Akey but I’m not sure if he’ll be an NHL player – this was just his rookie pro year so next year will be telling. I will note that when comparing to, say, Deharnais, Vinny played top comp minutes whereas, to my eye, I think Akey was generally 3rd pairing comp type minutes.
We have a long history of players having great numbers on a 3rd pair and the QoC proving to be a factor. I mean remember when Matt Benning always had great numbers on the 3rd pairing but could never tread water on the 2nd pair.
Ty Emberson had sparkling GA/60 numbers this season, do we think he can be 2RD?
Alex Regula had that 45% but he was playing #1D minutes and, as noted, the team was in a tail spin – he played better than those numbers suggest, in my opinion.
Carfagna, I wish he was three inches taller – I really like his game and his hockey brain.
I was going to ask if we were seeing a Benning-effect with Akey – looking great against gritensity but not so much stronger comp.
To be fair though, he is also a rookie pro, and defensemen take awhile to sus out. Results are also more dependent on teammates. So at this point I feel like the biggest arrow for Akey would simply be moving towards top pairing usage.
Carfagna sounds intriguing, but not sure where he would ever land in the NHL given our current leftorium is locked up for forever at the pro level
I should caveat this by saying, while it seems likely there is a quality of comp effect, while I do watch the games, its often not with full 100% attention (Oilers game on at the same time) and its not like I know the depth chart of the opposition to know exactly the level he’s playing against – I have a general sense though.
Yup, just his rookie year and he missed so much time including camp – this is a big off-season and year coming up for him.
Valid point on Carfagna and I have a similar thought on Regula – I think he can play in the NHL but Emberson is locked in to 3RD and should not be going anywhere – where does Regula play? Part of the issue last season was trying to get him to play 2RD with Nurse.
Scott Wheeler’s take from his annual prospect pool rankings:
“There’s a lot to work with, and it’s built upon a foundation of mobility.
An illness and a trio of injuries set him back a little after a strong start to his post-draft season and a good showing in his first NHL camp, and he missed more time early on last year, but Akey looked like a top D in the OHL when healthy over the previous two seasons, made Team Canada for the World Juniors (though he barely played) and has played to positive results to start his pro career this year.
He’s a B-minus prospect who could become a useful, skating depth No. 5-8 defenseman with continued development.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/6826376/2026/03/11/edmonton-oilers-nhl-prospect-rankings-2026/
I could be wrong and certainly defer to you with my limited Bako viewings this year by comparison, but I thought I recall one of, if not the best, stretches of the season for Akey was playing 1RD beside Carfagna around mid season when the D were very short handed.
I may be misremembering that and even if true would still be a small sample size, but thought that was a positive arrow for him and hope hes given more top 4 opportunities this season upcoming.
Akey had an up and down season – some solid stretched, also some healthy scratches.
Akey was by far the youngest Dman and the 2nd youngest player who played regular minutes on this roster. It is the hardest position in hockey, yet he more than kept his head above water.
In my opinion there was even a short stretch of the season when he seemed to be in optimal health, where he was one of the most effective Dmen on the roster, when others were clearly struggling.
Prospect development is normally a turbulent process, on a windy road with unpredictable changes in the weather. Not to mention a multitude of blind corners amongst the peaks and valleys a prospect and the organization must traverse.
Akey is in a very good spot, with no challengers in view to threaten his position, following his rookie season. He is 21 years old, still more than 2 years younger than his fellow rookie Carfagna, who had had the benefit of playing 3 seasons vs men in the NCAA, prior to this one.
To his credit, Akey showed better than the much larger, and more experienced Prokop. Also, the fact that he made the AHL roster is significant. He could very well have remained in the ECHL all season, but his time there was very short. He is exactly where he should be and is not only surviving, he is thriving (injuries aside).
He will be much better next season and is trending in a good direction. That being said, I think it is extremely premature to make any proclamations about his NHL future.
I don”t disagree on any of this and I’m not shutting the door on Akey’s future – as I said he was just a rookie and next season is a big one for him. He has a ways to go (but time to get there) and he has played some very good hockey but he seems to have an issue sustaining high levels of play – he seemed quite inconsistent in junior.
I would suggest that:
1) showing better than the experienced Prokop was the expectation – Prokop was on a 2-way AHL deal; and
2) spending any more time in the ECHL than the handful of games he did would have been a major disappointment, even with all the time missed. Not many “real prospects” that make it spend much time in the ECHL (goalies excepted).
— The profiles of these D : the type of players that a non playoff team is hoping one emerges so they don’t have to spend $ on a retread vet D and can allocate $ elsewhere in rebuild
— if any other them are regulars next year on our roster our team is in trouble IMO. They also have minimal value in trades to help to boot IMO