This is a table that appeared in my book ON THE CLOCK a few years ago. I wrote “That’s the kind of draft list Edmonton needs to be looking at every year. A player is too small, but posted 1.50 points-per-game in any of the CHL leagues? Draft that guy.” Please read this.
The Oilers don’t really use the draft anymore, but the statement applies to NHL rosters, too. The Carolina Hurricanes top two lines are populated by mostly undersized brilliance (Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Logan Stanhoven, Jason Blake) with a couple of bigger skilled wingers (Taylor Hall, Andrei Svechnikov).
Meanwhile, we are left to ponder the Oilers skill lines being able to house two of three smaller players (Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Matt Savoie, Ike Howard) in the days to come. Allowing for the fact Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman and Vasily Podkolzin should occupy the other four spots, I think the idea of Howard on a No. 2 line isn’t an outrageous suggestion. He has to earn it, but it should be there. Once that happens, we can talk about Carolina running Nikolaj Ehlers on the third line, and then contemplate the skill gap Edmonton needs to make up over the summer.
As each day passes without some kind of definitive word on the fate of the coaching staff, tension (or excitement) starts to build. Frank Seravalli has Kris Knoblauch as more than less likely to go, and I think we’re all agreed the assistant coaching staff will have some new faces.
The Evan Bouchard story (not being a finalist for the Norris) was predictable. The folks who vote for the award value the eye test over math and didn’t see him good in the early weeks of the year. So, while Bouchard should have been a finalist, and would be a worthy winner I think Bouchard would have to wait a generation for the voters to pick him as the top defender. He is a brilliant player, but bias is a thing. Considering the age of most voters, I suspect while they acknowledge the math, they didn’t grow up with analytics. They know what they saw, and disregard the math. That’s okay, no one will die from this. However, just like Jarri Kurri never winning a major award, it does reflect the limitations of the voters and does weaken the value of the award.
On the Lowdown today, we’ll be joined by Steve Lansky from Inside the Truck podcast. We’ll talk NHL playoffs, the Oilers, Leafs, and Jays. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and YouTube.
Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets: 8 names to watch in a limited market
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7261115/2026/05/08/edmonton-oilers-free-agent-targets-alex-tuch/
It’s wild to say this but Arvidsson and Kulak would be two players that would usually be good targets cost, term, player style, and need wise. Liljegren and Haula also could fit these qualifications. All of the above would help team speed.
Most creative scenario – give the old Selanne/Kariya to Avs pitch to Ovi and Malkin to team up together to create and all out offensive scoring line and chase a cup
I was wondering about malkin. If pits snubs him, would he sign for a one year run at the cup? Money wouldnt be his driving motive
But does he still have it to be a high end 2c?
Fit would be interesting for sure given he is reportedly quite slow, fairly one-dimensional, and needs PP time. If you gave him Podz and Kapenen, it could work nicely and let Drai drive Howard plus another winger
I think he proved that he’s still an elite player. But he’d be the 3C in Edmonton.
Malkin hasn’t been able to take faceoffs for a while, his shoulder is a problem. PIT played him on the wing most of the season.
I’d be wary if he’s your major acquisition for solid cap dollars.
He’s Nuge like or worse as far as face off winning and definitely doesn’t look like he was full time center duty this season.
Like 35+FO/60 this year 17 ish FO/60.
Giveaways jumped noticably this season
2/60 ish early carrer
2-3.5 ish mid career
2-4 ish tail
Then plop 5.9/60 this year
Insane seeming pop in GF% up to near 60% and it’s biggest pattern change wrong way of how big a difference GF% outperformed xGF% (for career mainly lower GF% than xGF%)….
Definitively outlier HIGH looking shooting %.and yeah…like first time in PDO pony territory (above 1.03 -> 1.034 to be exact) since his 1st 2 seasons and 2017 season in NHL.
So buyer beware on offense.
3C that had essentially never killed a penalty?
I could keep going but yeah essentially since those last cup winning teams his icetime definitely looks like sheltered 2nd line oitscoring middling comp.
Like of forwards on pens this season, even past few, clearly lowest percent of time facing elite and not buried in defensive end.
His shot map on NHL edge looks fantastic though. Like not a perimeter guy at all and still has booming well above average shot speeds.
As far as skating speed, he’s held steady for since Edge started tracking as far as max speed. Im 63rd percentile as far as 18-20 MPH bursts….so good and bad in that faster players likely have more weighted above 20 MPH but at least still hitting the lowest end of “speed burst” solidly consistent. Like not a broken down old horse just floating fakr to say. Still looks like he skates solid actual distance (endurance not a concern at least indicating that).
So I don’t know if white whale name brand right fit. I don’t think 3C. 17-18 min/game with still over 3 min PP included in that (still with higher end sort of GF/60 in those minutes…)
Best place likely for him:
1. Offensively: surely RNH replacement on Mcdavid’s left wing with ice as tilted offensive as it has been and PP1. He might stand great chance of increased dirty high danger parts quite a bit in that sort of usage. Just 1 problem.
2. Defensively: not at all seems wise in power vs power higher vs elite ice usage as any form of 200 ft defensive concious on a line that seems to need a defensive baby sitter to even stand a chance of out scoring even strength….
IMO: not the droid they are looking for nor a luxury add they likely could afford. Given level of cap and number of roster players to resign or refill holes at a cap efficient price value.
Charlie coyle is the biggest fish version of best possoble 3C fit but he’s 34 years old and even though brick shat house built plays really hard minutes in a way there is surely real risk for likely high dollar cap hit at least 3 year term.
But does he help make our PK better?
P.K is mostly deployment and what kind of shots work best for your goaltenders. How many goals were scored by the opposition from the shooting position that Cutter scored from. Our PK philosophy never changed all year I was hoping Coffey would go back to the traditional box over the diamond configuration that cost us the series.
His career average 2 seconds/60 minutes hard to gauge statistically much i’d say…good chance come sensibly “definitely not” though
Malkin just put up 61 points in 56 games – he can still produce.
I hear rumblings that they’ll likely work something out in Pit in the 1 X $5MM range – value deal
It’s really quite something how often as Oilers fans we see the player a great fit for what the team needs is a player that used to be on the team…….
Hey, didn’t y’all hear how good home cooking was going to be for Anaheim?
And didn’t we all hear how coaching doesn’t matter?
No actually, I did not as troll hunter/killer took care of that little issue.
I don’t really care about the so-called “McDavid Window.” My view is that, this summer, the Oilers should trade McDavid and get as much of a return as possible. They could easily get three or four excellent players plus high draft picks in return.
Management should be making decisions with little regard for what the superstars want or think. There is too much blurring of roles on the Oilers. The General Manager should be the General Manager; the coaches should be the coaches; and the players should be the players. Everyone should do what he is supposed to do as skillfully as possible. That’ how a championship team is built. This team is not going anywhere if management keeps trying to appease/please McDavid. That is not a strategy for success. Management’s job is to build a winning team. If that means trading McDavid, then so be it.
McDavid basically prints money for the owner. He isn’t being traded anywhere, unless he asks for/agrees to a trade up front.
In the cap world, its highly unlikely they are going to get 3-4 excellent players they can fit in under the cap (plus high draft picks),
Also, you can say it doesn’t matter what player’s think but, well, this trade cannot be made without McDavid’s input given his full No Movement Clause.
Given McDavid wants to win in Edmonton, as he states, he may not waive at all and, if he does, likely for only a handful of teams which would include true contenders and, if their roster and pipeline is gutted in the trade, well, he likely declines that waive.
Yep.
It takes some rose colored glasses to see this team contending for a cup next year. And McDavid has pretty much telegraphed that he’s gone if the Oilers don’t contend.
It seems only prudent to see what kind of return you could get. His trade value will never be higher than this summer.
Trading McDavid on the cusp of his contract becoming a massive home team discount would essentially make the Oilers a pariah state in the NHL. No free agents would come here and our drafted players would leave as soon as possible. Hard to believe I know, but you can’t treat human beings like disposable parts. Culture and loyalty matter.
Not sure how anyone is winning a trade with McDavid going the other way
I have to disagree with Lowetide on Bouchard and the Norris Trophy. Bouchard did not deserve to win, despite his excellent offensive game. Some of us grew up watching genuinely superb players like Denis Potvin, Larry Robinson, and Bobby Orr, all of whom played both ends of the ice exceptionally well. They did not stand around, ever, and they rarely erred on the defensive side. Opponents had to pay a price to get near their net. Not so with Bouchard. He sometimes gives out tickets for a front row seat in front of the Oiler net.
I think Bouchard’s homework over the summer should be to watch all the video he can find showing Potvin, Robinson and Orr playing excellent defence while also demonstrating offensive prowess. It is possible to do both. In my view, the winner of the Norris Trophy should be able to do both. Too many times this year, I noticed Bouchard backing away from physical contact or waiting out of position while an opponent he should have been covering scored a goal from in front of the Oiler net.
This is EXACTLY the kind of bias Lowetide was talking about. Have you watched the other 3 candidates play THIS YEAR?
Cherry picking 3 all time greats to compare to from different eras is disingenuous at best. None of the players nominated compare favorably to those guys.
5 on 5, the Oilers were:
+18 with Bouchard on the ice
– 32 with Bouchard not on the ice.
That discrepancy was larger than with and without McDavid or Drai.
At 5 on 5, the Oilers were:
+7 with McDavid on the ice –
21 with McDavid not on the ice.
———–
Bouchard had a 55% goal share with McDavid and 57.5% without him.
McDavid was down to 46% without Bouchard.
Does McDavid help Bouchard? Of course but this season, Bouchard helped McDavid more substantially than the other way around.
—————-
Zack Werenski is essentially the same player defensively but even worse in battle. The difference is that there just aren’t many eyes on Werenski as Bouchard and that hurts Bouchard. It’s the eyes on the negative.
Bouchard had 13 giveaways this season leading to goals against. I bet all 13 were plastered all over twitter. Werenski had 12 such giveaways and I bet most voters saw all but none of them.
Oh, yes, those giveaways were just as egregious. I made a point of watching CBJ goals against down the stretch and Werenski was essentially Bouchard in October.
Paul Coffey got snubbed for a while too. It seems the voters are happy to vote on offense for several years and then suddenly grow a defensive conscience just when an Oiler challenges. Coffey had to lead the league in scoring for four years in a row before he would win the Norris.
1981-82
1982-83
..46.. Langway: 80, 3-29-32 -2 **Norris winner
1983-84
..43.. Langway: 80, 9-24-33 +14 **Norris winner
1984-85
1985-86
He also led the league in scoring in 1988-89 and 89-90 but didn’t win the Norris either year. He won his 3rd Norris in 94-95, after having led the league in defenseman scoring for the 8th time in his career.
I don’t believe the criteria remains constant from year to year.
Looks like Eastern media bias.
It’s wild that Coffey didn’t win in 1983-84. 126 points? Led all D-men by 30 points, led all non-Gretzky Oiler forwards by 13 points.
I guess, 40 years ago, it was hard to imagine the idea of a D-man outscoring his mistakes.
The Russians are coming…
Roman Kantserov terminates KHL contract, opening door to signing with Blackhawks
“Whenever Kantserov does sign, he’s expected to jump immediately into the Blackhawks’ lineup. His game reached another level this past season as he became the first 21-year-old to lead the KHL in goals since Kirill Kaprizov in 2018-19. He also set new KHL records for an under-23 player with 36 goals and 64 points. Metallurg’s season recently ended in the playoffs.”
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7263571/2026/05/08/blackhawks-roman-kantserov-khl-contract-termination/
Wait, I know I was young at the time so never noticed, but Kurri never won an award? Brutal
He should have been an annual Selke candidate
Absolutely
Gretzky would routinely wait by the redline for a breakaway pass while the opposition were on the attack. Fans in other cities routinely called him a “goal suck” and they weren’t wrong. It was the one part of the Great One’s game I never appreciated, particularly given how average he was on breakaways.
Jari covered a LOT of warts in Wayne’s game. He was a back checking demon. And such a smart and positionally sound player.
Sather was like the rest of us when it came to #99. He truly delighted in his skill. I honestly think that’s why Glen gave him so much rope. He wanted to see the magic just like we did. Slats let his thoroughbreds run.
Gretzky would get 1 or 2 breakaways a game in the early years could you imagine how many more breakaways and goals Wayne would have had without the 2 line pass rule that he played his entire career under.
PA Raiders vs Everett Silvertips WHL final – game one tonight. The team that gave us Leon hasn’t won since 1985 …Go Raiders!
If PA can win the title, it’ll be the second time in nine seasons that a Sask team beat Everett in the final.
The other time was in ’18 when Skinner outduelled Hart to give Swift the WHL crown.
Top line on this team needs a makeover.
Nuge is not fast, aggressive, or hard to play against. He is smart though and can shoot, is it enough?
Hyman had a down year. Will injuries bother him so much that takes him off top line. He can play fast and aggressive but Im not confident he gets back there.
These two might end up making a very good third line.
Hyman had 31 goals in 56 games – he led the league in goals over like a 3 month stretch.
At the same time, he is aging in real time and I’m not sure his body can take L1 and PP1 minutes for 82+25 games….
I was actually thinking of a Nuge/Hyman line earlier when someone said Nuge can’t be a center. They are 17-17 goals (and 51% expected) together without McDavid/Drai over the last 3 years – something like 400 minutes.
Zach had a good year with great portions and a downbeat playoffs (nigh invisible). Give these vets a summer of R&R, introduce the concept of load management for such as Ek and Zach and Nuge, elevate as much youth as you can as often as you can see what the mix looks like in spring.
— keeping KK and a revamp of the coaching staff vs firing. I see both sides : not getting it done vs learn adapt grow with group.
LONG POST INCOMING
— looking back at the coaches the Oil have hired not once great get: a in their prime with Cup credentials (like say a Quenville) or emerging superstars (like say a Cooper) , established leaders with significant success:
— Ron Low : at least a normal ascent : AHL then assistant coach then head coach. Never won anything
— Kevin Lowe : had no business being head coach. Took over from Ron. Promoted up to GM. Never won anything
— MacT: was assistant coach with Rangers then with Oil for a year so. Ended up way too long as coach but defensible hire initially. Never won anything
— Pat Quinn : was too far removed from his coaching excellence and never coached again. Never won anything
— Renny : decent enough placeholder. Never won anything. Did his job right at stage of team IMO. Never won anything
— Ralph Kruger : fraud coach. Never won anything
— Dallas Eakins: fraud coach. Never won anything
— Todd Nelson : wasn’t given a chance. Undermined my MacT who sat on bench to check things out. Never won anything
— Todd McLellan: appropriate hire to grow with franchise. Couldn’t take to next level. Never won anything
— Hitch : took the money and ran IMO. Quinn v2.0 : too far removed from being significant coach. Never won anything
— Tippet : also removed from hockey. Poor performances in playoffs. Never won anything
— Woodcroft: wasn’t right guy for a win now team. No NHL experience. Never won anything
— KK: wasn’t right guy for a win now team. No NHL experience. Never won anything
Conclusion : Oilers hire guys who haven’t won a Cup as a head coach before or after . Full stop.
— They veer between old school experience and 1st time coaches.
— They haven’t had a great head coach since Muckler.
— Management has let organization down through generations with the wrong type of coaches for the stage of their team.
— The only thing consistent is they avoid Cup winning coaches.
This is correct. The Oilers never commit to a real hiring process and end up this the same result over and over.
One small note, Hitch won a Cup with Dallas iirc.
Sometimes I forget the list of mediocre coaches we have seen over the last 20 years. Yikes.
If you made a list of goalies since Salo it would look very similar.
— your right.
— He was an elite coach as Dallas was emerging. We needed a coach like that to grow with the superstars : but 20+ years later he was not what the Oil needed (although it might have been reluctant). Guys like him at their stage get tuned out by players because they are so far removed from when they were big time coaches..
Hitch actually coached 62 games in what was already a lost season. It was more games than I remember.
He wasn’t really brought on seriously as a coaching solution. I recall he wasn’t hired to diagnose what was wrong with the roster. If he was part of the “thank god he traded for those two NHL defensemen” solution including Brandon Manning, he wasn’t helpful.
There is one flaw in your argument:
Only 3 coaches in NHL history have won a stanley cup with multiple teams:
Since 1953, the list is literally one man, so my question would be, why would they want a cup winning coach? Cup winning coaches don’t repeat, they catch lightning in a bottle and then they appear to never win with a different team. We should be looking for an up and comer, somebody who is ready to be a coach for a long time, rather than looking for somebody who has already won.
—- do you therefore believe the Oilers have made good coaching hires?
— true as head coaches but even on coaching staffs. I just put that there because it looked cool to repeat…
— the oilers haven’t hired a coach that was for highly regarded from a cup winning team or programme one that was blocked because the head coach great.
— Quinn and Hitch for a year were well beyond their primes as winning coaches. Tippet was viewed as a decent coach for a team that didn’t win and he was out of hockey
— Lowe,MacT, Ralph, Dallas, all 3 Todd’s: none of them were head coaches. Learning on job which at some stages make sense. None of them had recent experience on coaching staffs that did win.
Just because there is a flaw in your thinking does not necessarily mean that I disagree with the premise. I agree with the majority of your analysis and by and large agree that the Oilers head coaching selections have been… underwhelming to say the least.
Part of it is a difference in philosophy and style. Hitchcock, Tippet and Quinn were chosen because of their ‘old school’ philosophy and defense-first style that were supposed to complement and balance the offensively-gifted superstars of the Oilers in different eras. I understand the thought process, and it might have worked if they were closer to their primes, but it was a styles clash from the beginning.
MacT I will defend, he overstayed his welcome, but he was innovative and overall a good coach in my opinion. He got the most out of players that didn’t have a lot to give, but just as he was as a GM, he was deeply flawed. He had favourites for players for inexplicable reasons, and to the detriment of other, more talented players that could have helped.
Eakins was the ‘style’ of coach I thought that the Oilers needed at the time. Young, learning and up and coming, but his attitude and style was so very clearly destined to fail.
I really liked the Woodcroft hire, and thought it was an inspired choice, and fit the mold of what you were looking for, and more. He was familiar with the team, having been an assistant coach for years before moving to Bakersfield and head coaching there. He had been blocked by more experienced, good (not great) coaches and had new ideas that fit the style of the team. In some ways, I regret that he was fired because I think he would have been more successful in the long term than Knoblauch has been. I was actually surprised and dubious of Knoblauch from the beginning because it didn’t seem like the Oilers needed another new, rookie coach. I will eat my words the past two years, because he has been more successful than we dared hope.
My question for you, is why are you so certain that the Oilers need a head coach that has either won a stanley cup, or been on the staff of a stanley cup winning team, when the 14 coaches who have won a stanley cup since the salary cap era have not had that experience? To hire a coach with a previous stanley cup would need a statistical anomaly for the Oilers to win with them, and only 1 coach in the last 20 years won a cup as an associate or assistant prior to winning as a head coach.
List of stanley cup winning coaches:
— good post. I don’t know the answer but let’s look at the last 10 years:
Maurice : vet coach tons of experience has cred with his team, in prime of career
Cassidy: vet coach tons of experience coached a lot of good teams that went deep, in prime of career
Bednar: grew with his team, worked his way up won a Cup
Jon Cooper : worked his way up grew with team won cups
Berube: won a cup in miracle season but mostly a first round loser coach. Lightening in a bottle IMO
Trots – masterclass Cup winner in his prime grew with team
Sullivan – kind of the KK hire mid season that won back to back. Dined off that for 8 more years!
Quinville : grew with team won in prime still coaching at elite level
Sutter : Had a long run as a very good coach for many teams
— So looking back at the coaches of the teams that one cups there are a few themes that run through them: some combination of
a) growing with team for long period of time,
b) coaches in prime that had success with other organizations
c) multiple cups with same team
sure a few outliers but what characteristics have our coaches had with the past cup winner coaches recently?
— we’ve never hired an in their prime coach that had previous teams go deep. (Maurice quinville, sutter trotz Cassidy etc
— we haven’t given a coach enough rope to learn and win : cooper bednar etc
Anyway been fun to explore a bit and refine answers. Clearly it’s not likely “get a previous Cup winning coach”
— whatever they do better get it right ASAP.
— McDavid would look good beside Matthews and McKenna next year if he’s not won here and wants to explore options
Wouldn’t the most likely conclusion from this be that the Oilers would do best to keep Knoblauch?
“We should be looking for an up and comer, somebody who is ready to be a coach for a long time, rather than looking for somebody who has already won.”
The coaches I find interesting have one thing in common: they had virtually no previous NHL head coaching experience before their current team, they are relatively young, they are keen to learn, they’ve been with their clubs for a number of seasons (ie. are not expected to perform miracles, though one at least has come close, twice). The list is short:
-Jon Cooper over 14 seasons w TBL (.596 WIN% regular season; .562 WIN% playoffs)
–Martin St. Louis over four seasons with Habs (.406 WIN% regular season; .417 WIN% playoffs as of May 8, 2026)
-Kris Knoblauch over three seasons w Oilers (.579 WIN% regular season; .585 WIN% playoffs)
Weren’t Eakins, Nelson and KK all young up and comers with coaching pedigree? Even Kruger could be thrown into this group.
Kinger-Oil’s point should simply have been that the Oilers have poorly hired their head coaches as proven by what they have gone onto since leaving the Oilers. I believe someone has made this post in the last day or two.
Good post.
A bit ironic that the Oilers won’t hire a GM without a cup ring lately, but do vacillate between rookie coaches and those who are past their prime—and won’t hire a coach without a cup ring
Poor Pat Quinn, I watched all of his interviews. He couldn’t remember the players names. Those interviews were legendary… Barbara Anne Scott…hind banana…fancy Dans..,.
In fairness to some of the names you see on the list, there is a heavy interplay of how a coach looks and the roster they’re given.
I had high hopes for some strong defensive play from Tippett, but his Arizona style of play was heavily dependent on having defensive specialists like Hanzal.
McLellan was a bonafide coach still in his prime though he admittedly looked a lot smarter behind the Sharks’ bench.
KK actually made some nice adjustments during the prior two playoff seasons. He fell off the cliff this season with his new assistants and the stretch hockey.
Coaches tend to look a lot smarter when they have quality goaltending and a solid bottom six—two things that have been scarce on the Oilers roster.
— yeah when you look back at it you can see the primitive decision making. They go “yeah we need a stud new guy with new ideas to grow with the team”. Then they hire the wrong guy and/or don’t give them enough rope and/or surround with right personal and/or roster
— then they course correct and go “yeah we need and old school guy to teach these guys some lessons” and get guys too far removed from when they would have been good hires.
— when they were growing they ought to have found a coach that could grow with them.
— when those guys didn’t work out (wrong hire or bad management roster personnel procurement) they over vectored IMO
— Hiring head coaches with no NHL experience though with prime McDrai was clearly sub optimal because those coaches have been ill equipped to make the necessary adjustments IMO
— and yeah better goalies and better draft and develops and not giving away draft and develops for free would have made the coaches better.
— Winning matters most. We haven’t hired coaches who win. And the “young stud coach” hasn’t been developed alongside the team.
— I don’t know what the solution is. Just with hindsight they haven’t had great coaches IMO
Nelson and Woody were both the kinds of guys who I thought could grow with the team. A lot of people soured on Woodcroft because of a bad start, but they were still pkaying hockey the right away with solid possession metrics. Fast forward three years and now we know that the oilers just seem to take all of Oct-Nov to get going, so tough to say that was all on woodcroft.
— yeah agree. When a team isn’t in the winning cup window you hire different kind of coaches (renny for example)
— Todd Mcleland grew with the team that wasn’t quite ready to win it all but he grew then didn’t make playoff progress. He has a good tenure.
— I’d argue that KK and Woodcroft weren’t the right ones to be learning on job with a prime McDrai.
— There is a lot out of control of coach for sure.
“Winning matters most. We haven’t hired coaches who win.”
Hmmm… Current coach amongst “winningest” active coaches in the NHL. Including this year, and this year’s playoffs.
Compare regular seasons (playoffs):
B’rindamour: .614 WIN% (.528)
Cooper: .596 WIN% (.568)
Knoblauch: .579 WIN% (.585)
Bednar: .569 WIN% (.591)
Cassidy: .567 WIN% (.521)
Quenneville: .547 WIN% (.538)
DeBoer: .524 WIN% (.542)
Maurice: .475 WIN% (.538)
for olde tyme sake:
Bowman the Elder: .581 WIN% (.632)
Sather: .514 WIN% (.705)
Toe Blake: .514 WIN% (.689)
Many names not in this list, but I think most of the successful, active coaches are included. Despite all the gnashing of teeth here and elsewhere in Oilerville about the current coach, he is third in regular season WIN%, and second in playoff WIN%. Contrary to your assertion, perhaps the team has indeed picked a coach who knows how to win. Let’s take down the gallows, please.
— winning percentages over seasons isn’t really pertinent IMO. You can have good coaches for bad teams (that was the Tippet argument). Maurice coached a bunch of bad teams presumably refined his craft and now considered an excellent coach).
— I don’t really know what the answer is I’m just observing that if winning a Cup is the goal we haven’t solved that.
— Maybe KK deserves a 4th crack with the team and we don’t know what we don’t know.
— His winning percentage isnt proof he’s the right guy to win the Cup though.
Agreed. I was commenting on your “we haven’t hired coaches who win.”
If winning is the criteria by which to judge a coach, then KK is a good hire.
Winning in the regular seasons isn’t winning in the playoffs (but his numbers are good there), and winning in the playoffs isn’t necessarily winning the Cup. But to my eye —and by the numbers— the team has one of the winningest coaches in the league, with two SCFs. Not many coaches can boast Knoblauch’s regular season or playoff success. The only other coach to get to two successive SCFs and not win a Cup is Bowman the elder. That’s a horse I’d bet on.
I get that you’re talking stanley’s. But I disagree with the use of “never won anything.”
To me there’s a pretty big difference in “never won anything” and ‘was head coach for 2 UHL championships’ (Nelson) or ‘was head coach for 2 WHL championships with 2 different teams’ (Knoblauch)
A big part of Jon Cooper’s come up was winning at multiple levels before getting to the nhl. Championships in high level hockey en route to the nhl should not be discounted.
What’s your definition of anything? A Stanley Cup? If so, true. Without looking, I bet if you go back the last 30 years of any team that didn’t win a cup, you will have a smiliar list. Being that very few coaches have won with a different team, it is likely true. Although I don’t disagree with with the criticism of the Oilers hiring process.
Hart finalists confirmed: McDavid, Mackinnon, Kucherov.
It will deservedly be MacK. He was absolutely dominant this season.
His 5 on 5 goal share is tough to argue against – I mean, outscoring, the most important thing a player can do. Sure, 5 on 5 goal share is a stat shares with your ice mates but I think we know when its driven by a guy like Nate.
On this one, zero surprise.
Celebrini should have been considered and likely would have been if San Jose made the playoffs.
He finished the season 21 goals and 56 points more than Will Smith who was second in Sharks scoring.
Pretty tough not to be recognized as the most valuable player TO HIS TEAM.
His 56% goal share was outstanding on a team that finished with a goal differential of -41.
Yes.
Thought experiment: How different would this year’s regular season results be if McD were injured or otherwise not in the lineup?
And, how different for COL or TBL is McK or Kuch were similarly sidelined?
And, SJS, if Celebrini were out?
I don’t watch these other teams, so can’t comment. But I did see good things happen with the Oilers when Draisaitl was out (except PP) for the fabled “final 11” games. I believe the team also responded positively to McD being out last year for a few games. It certainly seemed to be the occasion for “200 foot hockey” and Selke level play from Draisaitl.
The Sharks would have been fighting Vancouver for last in the league without Celebrini.
Points production doesn’t make you the best overall defenceman in the league. It’s been suggested that a new award, the Bobby Orr Trophy, should be awarded to the best offensive defenceman in the league, and the Norris should return to its roots as the best overall defenceman. If they did that, Bouchard likely wins the Orr Trophy this year and Jacob Slavin the Norris.
I’m with you. We have a best defensive forward award, why not a best offensive D-Man award?
Even the Selke puts weight on offense though. You’d never see a guy like Dickinson or Samanski nominated, it’s always a 1st liner who puts up lots of points while ALSO playing a solid defensive game.
I can’t speak to recent winners, but the winners in the early years of the award, like Gainey and Doug Jarvis, were definitely not top line players or scorers. Has the focus shifted over time?
For the past 20 years it’s pretty much always been a top line guy. Barkov, Bergeron, Kopitar, Datsyuk, Brind’Amour, etc. Bottom-6 players / PK specialists weren’t considered. It’s not strictly a defensive award – offense is considered.
Thanks
Ben Massey put together a fantastic piece on how overrated Gainey was:
https://timetokillnow.com/2026/04/22/bob-gainey-was-overrated/#post-content-top
(Incidentally, I would recommend his old-school blog to everybody reading this old-school blog.)
And yet, best offensive defenseman usually wins, regardless of the definition.
But I also agree with the split. It puts focus and recognition on both talents.
The Norris has ALWAYS been mostly about offense. I just looked up the first 10 years of the trophy, the winner was a top-3 scorer 7 times. Offense has always weighed heavily in the voters eyes, along with reputation (Doug Harvey won 7 of the first 10 years and didn’t deserve to).
Where did you get the idea that it was ever about being the best overall? And how would you measure that anyhow?
The fabled eye test! Seriously though, we could use analytics to see who’s the best combo of chance creation and suppression, goal share, breakouts etc. Whoever is top for that gets the Norris. Then offensive defenceman goes to the top points grabber.
We can use analytics now, but there’s no way the voters were doing that in the 1950’s. And even if everyone could agree on the microstats to be used (they won’t), every voter will weight them differently anyhow. They’re journalists, not scientists.
You’re proving why this wouldn’t work: Slavin is a thoughtless reputational pick. He missed more than half the season, he couldn’t possibly have turned in the best defensive season in the league with just 39 GP.
Besides, despite having elite offensive skills, Orr was very much an all-round defenseman. Any “offensive defenseman” award should be named after Paul Coffey.
Slavin was an under researched pick on my part (don’t really see the need for insults). Was too caught up remembering his play in the Olympics. But that doesn’t change the validity of the premise. The award WAS originally supposed to be for the best overall defenceman, and the ability to defend was a core component of that. Until Orr revolutionized the position and then players like Coffey and Karlsson turned it into a track meet, that’s when the Norris Trophy morphed into a trophy for the best PP QB.
Awards/Trophy’s are almost always a popularity contest with reputation factoring in. That will likely always be a problem in any voting situation, but again it doesn’t invalidate the premise that the Norris voting as currently compromised is heavily skewed towards offensive output and isn’t considering the total impact of the position.
The award, since its inception, has gone to better offensive defencemen. Red Kelly, Doug Harvey and Pierre Pilote were always among the top scoring defensemen, if not the top, when they won most of the awards in the pre-Orr era. They also all played powerplay. Outside of the 2 Langway wins, which was a reaction to giving the award to Randy Carlyle, the winner is almost always among the top scoring defensemen.
But you’re also right that popularity and reputation play a huge role in who wins the award.
Certainly offensive ability should factor in. But the trophy is literally for a position called “defenceman.” Why would it be predominantly judged based on what they do in the “offensive zone”on the powerplay? Lidstrom dominated at both ends of the ice. To me, that is the standard. Quinn Hughes and Cale Makar are glorified 4th forwards. Bouchard is hugely inconsistent in the D Zone. Let players like that vie for the Orr Award. Let players like Slavin, Parayko, Josi, and Heiskanen vie for the Norris.
Here’s a thought. If a team is protecting a 1 goal in the last minute of the game and the HC doesn’t put a Dman out to defend that lead, he probably shouldn’t be a serious contender for the Norris.
Bobby Orr was the best defensive defenseman in the league.
It should be called the Nik Lidstrom Trophy.
Orr was the best player in the league, defense and offence. He is a candidate for best player ever.
I was watching highlights of old Bruins games on YouTube. Bobby Orr was incredible in the 1970 playoffs, the highlights I watched were from the Chicago series. He was a shot blocking demon. Against Montreal in the 1971 playoffs, a lot of horrible giveaways leading directly to Montreal goals.
Slavin would win that award many years in a row. In the 4 Nations, I thought he was the US’s best player.
The modern Rod Langway.
Langway profited from the same thing that punishes Bouchard, narrative.
As LT often says…you develop a past…good or bad.
Bouchard’s brain freezes are seared in many memories.
I wonder if a moustache could overcome recall bias.
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This “skill gap” may be true but, for context, they may have Ehlers on their 3rd line but they don’t have Connor McDavid nor Leon Draisaitl in their top 6…….
Balance is most important.
Especially in the Eastern Final, amirite?!
Definitely diminishes the award and the voters, not the player. Sort of like a baseball HOF that doesn’t have a 7 time Cy Young award winner in it.
Presuming we don’t re-sign Dickinson, I have lots of time for Nuge to be on the 3rd line, perhaps 3rd line center, with Howard in the top 6 (along with Savoie). Of course, he has to “earn it” but I am fully confident that he will produce offensive points in deployed with either McDavid or Drai and I am happy with his 2-way and away from the puck development.
They may re-sign Dickinson, and that’s fine in isolation, if the contract makes sense but I don’t think he re-signs for under $3MM and that’s my line in the sand here. There is every chance he’s a 4C at 5 on 5 through the regular season. His production has been Janmark-like.
I have zero concern with Nuge being on the 3rd line an PP1 – I am no concerned about the “post power play shift” – the Oilers fourth line should be able to play a shift against anyone if they are a contending hockey team. Also, PP1 should not play as long in to the PP as it has – that’s likely not going to change mind you.
I think they absolutely must sign Dickenson. And if not, they must find another cheaper version of him.
They cannot keep doing the same things. The identity must change. To do that you need strong role players with a lot of intensity. Doing their role, not watching McDavid, and doing their role so well they improve the team.
We need these players.
Sure but there is a reasonable chance they could be excahgnign the Henrique contract for the Dickinson contract.
Dickinson in currently on a $4.25AAV deal and, if he wants anything in that range, I don’t touch it – he’s essentially a 25-30 point guy (82-game rates, and he doesn’t play 82 games).
He’s really a 4C/PK guy.
i have concerns with nuge as the 3c. He is not able to push the river at center and creates little 5v5.
We’ve never really seen him play 3C.
Even if PP1 gets most of the two minutes, you could/should be swapping RNH and Hyman while leaving the 3 elite players out there
I think they did that when Tippet was coach, and it would be a way to get players like Savoie and Howard PP time without putting out a PP basically made up of 3rd liners.
Jari Kurri never winning the Selke was an absolute travesty. Gretzky pretty much invented “cheating for offense” and Jari was the definitive two way conscience that made that work.
If #17 isn’t the most underrated players in NHL history, he’s on the shortlist imo.
Tikkanen is even more underrated than Kurri.
Tikk was the most entertaining interview in the league.
Speaking of math, I’m of the mind that the experts’ draft rankings are over- and under-valuing certain defensemen.
It appears to be a bumper crop of skilled, offensively-minded blueliners. Looking at the CHL defensemen:
Carson Carels: L 6’2 198
58 GP – 20G – 53A 73P 1.26P/G +23
Playoffs: 1-9-10 in 10GP 1 P/G
Chase Reid R 6’3 195
45 GP – 18G – 30A – 48P 1.06P/G +27
Playoffs: 3-3-6 in 10GP .6 P/G
Daxon Rudolph R 6’3
68GP – 28G – 50A – 78P 1.15P/G +32
Playoffs: 9-14-23 in 16GP 1.46P/G
By comparison, NHL D scoring champion Evan Bouchard in his draft season went:
67GP 25-62-87 +23 1.3P/G
None of the D are as otherworldly as Bouchard, but their math is solid. Too bad Keaton Verhoeff didn’t play in the WHL this past season, but his counting numbers from 24-25 are close to those of Carels’ and Rudolph’s. I would imagine he’d be >1 P/G in the Dub.
Theres not much to parse between them, however Daxon Rudolph’s playoffs have been outstanding, and the fact he led his team in scoring adds to his credibility.
You also have to factor Albert Smits into the equation. The 6’3 LD Latvian had 6-7-13 in 38G in SM-Liiga. That’s more or less on pace with Miro Heiskanen in his draft season.
It’s also worth noting the players’ size, as they all range from 6’2 – 6’4.
Zayne Parekh is 6’0 174 and scored at 1.45P/G in his draft year, but is still finding his way in the NHL. I think the player is good, but for D size plays a factor in your NHL success.
Context matters here.
Carson Carels finished 3rd in scoring for Prince George Cougars 6 points behind leader 19 year old Terik Parascak with Carels being only 17.
Daxon Rudolph led the Prince Albert Raiders in scoring by 9 points more than their #1C.
Zane Parekh just finished his 19 year old season (turned 20 in February) and spent only 37 games in the NHL paired often with AHL level partners.
The Flames pick at #6 in the upcoming draft and are expected to select LD Carels if he is still on the board.
At 6’2″ 195, he could be the perfect partner for Parekh who is now listed at 187 pounds and very likely to add additional muscle as he enters his 20s.
All those players for Carolina skate fast, play with a motor, ad have some level of aggressiveness. Oilers are lacking that in spades.
That’s why they can use smaller players. Also many of the panthers top 9 aren’t huge guys, some are fairly tall but not near the Ducks forwards for overall size. But they are aggressive. Nuge Savoie Howard aren’t aggressive
Savoie fits the Hurricane/Panthers model. He is all over the puck carrier, constant motor. RNH not so much. Oilers need more players who are hard to play against, for sure.
5’8″ 165 Logan Stankhoven thrives in the Carolina system
Savoie is a good player, but I know a bit about Stankoven and he is a more assertive player than Sav who is probably more skilled
The buy-in that Brindamour gets throughout the lineup, season after season, is impressive.
Well, it’s great that Brindy’s Carolina’s been a long-time contender – maybe this year they make the final!
You also need smart players who turn over pucks by being ‘in the play’ and getting in the road via body or stick. Savoie is small, but man he touches the puck a ton.
I love everything said in this thread!
Fast, high motor, aggressive. This is the team they need to get back to.
Nuge , Savoie, Howard are valuable, but they cannot be the identity.
Some coaches really bring out this play.
^^^ this, so much this!
I think this may be more coaching and injuries (hopefully not age) than personnel as last year’s playoff team played a lot like this through the first 3 rounds.
All of Hyman, McDavid, Savoie, Drai, Kapanen, Podz, RNH, Samanski, Jones and Dach can play a puck hounding game. Fred and Dickinson if brought back should be able to.
Nuge can actually be really strong on the forecheck – its about persistence and a desire for the puck. Savoie plays that way, too. Haven’t seen enough of Howard to judge him on that.
They get by on speed and a hyper aggressive forecheck, augmented by exceptional play in their own zone. The Oilers have always had the speed to play that game but chose a really passive style this year for some reason.
For sure except I think it should be noted that there just aren’t many eyes on Werenski as Bouchard and that hurts Bouchard. It’s the eyes on the negative.
Bouchard had 13 giveaways this season leading to goals against. I bet all 13 were plastered all over twitter. Werenski had 12 such giveaways and I bet most voters saw all but none of them.
Oh, yes, those giveaways were just as egregious. I made a point of watching CBJ goals against down the stretch and Werenski was essentially Bouchard in October.
Makar is also not the eye test but name value, end stop. He is the best d-man in the league but he wasn’t this season.
This totally.
Watching a bit more makar and he is the best.
But he has just as terrible moments. He has “nurse ” moments. But no one talks about it.
Oh well. Probably best. More motivation and when he is due for next contract he will have to be paid less than “the best dmen” =win for us
The finalists for the Hart come out today.
McDavid will be on this one.
Celebrini not a finalist, but the top-3 scorers. Are these the same guys that vote for the Norris?
Its the reason i dont care about any of the awards beyond the Art Ross, Rocket, Ted Lindsay and the Conn Smythe.