I watched the Bakersfield Condors this weekend, and it was a fun experience. I like to get a feel for the minor league team early, that way we have a line in the sand. If someone spikes around Christmas, well, we’ll have today’s player comments to refer back to at that time. I’m most impressed with the group and there are some emerging stories.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: 6 Edmonton Oilers positives from an uneven start
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ AHL affiliate sustain a productive prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers need Jakob Chychrun or another top-4 defender, as loss to Flames shows
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers early impressions from season-opening win
- DNB: Oilers must adapt to short-handed lineup because it’s coming again
- Lowetide: Can Oilers winger Jesse Puljujarvi be a modern Jere Lehtinen?
- DNB: Oilers goalie Jack Campbell enters season intent on exceeding expectations
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Evan Bouchard will be a key to 2022-23 season
- New DNB: A summer day with Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft
- New DNB: 11 bold predictions for 2022-23 season
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Oilers’ missing pieces? Trade strategy? Breakout player? Mailbag
- Lowetide: 5 areas for Edmonton Oilers roster improvement in 2022-23
- DNB: Projecting Oilers’ opening-night roster
- Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Connor McDavid facing Hart Trophy voter fatigue?
- DNB: Dylan Holloway’s emergence for Oilers puts Jesse Puljujarvi’s future into focus
- Lowetide: Is this the year an Edmonton Oilers player wins the Calder Trophy?
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- DNB: Oilers’ Connor McDavid may have 50 goals in his reach, but a bigger goal remains
- DNB: Darnell Nurse’s big-money contract with Oilers isn’t going to change who he is or how he plays
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
THE GOALIES
- Calvin Pickard 1 game, 2.86 GAA .919 SP
- Olivier Rodrigue 1 game, 2.00 .909 SP
Both goalies played well this weekend, the veteran Pickard seeing fewer shots and to my eye a sharper group in front of him. Rodrigue got plenty of work early in the game, and some good fortune (I heard so much iron I thought they were playing the Bells of Rhymney). Ryan Fanti has yet to start and that could happen this week.
DEFENSE
Daniel Nugent-Bowman speculated Sunday morning (link above) that Markus Niemelainen would be coming up soon, and it might be today. He and Jason Demers are the top pairing by some margin in Bakersfield. Edmonton needs some help on defense, Niemelainen has an edge. I’m not certain he’d be an upgrade on any of the current Oilers blue, but as an additional seventh D, he might be able to keep things fresh.
Among the rest, I’m impressed with Demers, Mike Kesselring (he’s really emerging now), and on a lower level, Yanni Kaldis and Phil Kemp. I don’t know how many of these men will play in the NHL, but I’ll tell you every prospect is getting a full shot again this year and that’s a good thing. Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais have yet to play, and Slater Koekkoek may be along later in the year.
FORWARDS
The Klim Kostin-James Hamblin-Seth Griffith line has a tough goal differential but it is the top trio on the team and went head-to-head often versus the Samuel Fagemo-Lias Andersson-TJ Tynan trio. Hamblin impacts everything, Griffith is the big mover on the power play and Kostin brings the line strength and recovery ability. He can pass, too.
Dino Kambeitz was the big star of game one, going 1-1-2. You may recall I’m a fan of this player because he consistently makes the right play. He lacks NHL skill (although the power-play goal was a rocket) but is an industrious player who drives opponents to distraction. That description can also be applied to Samuel Dove-McFalls, who is in the middle of a lot of things and can handle himself. Along with the more prominent Kostin, Bakersfield has an edge to their play we haven’t seen in some time. I’m not talking Lucic in his prime edge, but these men (Kostin, Kambeitz, Dove-McFalls) can win battles, agitate and make effective plays. I should include Luke Esposito in this, too.
Finally, a quick note on the rookies. Xavier Bourgault touches the puck more than the average rookie, and he’s making plays. Had a nice HDSC last night but his stick exploded. Damndest thing. Nice passer, had three shots in the two games and wins battles with his smarts. He needs to get stronger but there’s a player here. I was pleased with his skating and determination, he didn’t ease his way into the NHL like (say) Raphael Lavoie as a rookie.
Tyler Tullio doesn’t touch the puck as much, but he’s the guy with the assist this morning so let’s review. Had one shot on the weekend, I feel “middle six” will be his role despite the junior scoring numbers. Noah Philp is on the wing currently, his size and strength were on display, less skill shown but he’s getting depth minutes.
CONDORS 2021-22 REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS
- G Stuart Skinner (22): Solidifying his status as a legit AHL goalie with NHL potential.
- G Ilya Konovalov (23): He should emerge as the AHL starter and be the first recall.
- G Olivier Rodrigue (21): A strong ECHL season and quality play if he gets AHL time.
- LD Dmitri Samorukov (22): Dominating shutdown play, same as last season.
- RD Filip Berglund (24): Solid two-way play in the AHL with good offense.
- LD Philip Broberg (20): Deliver in all areas, impress with skill set.
- LD William Lagesson (25): A shutdown and mentor role and lots of PK minutes.
- RD Phil Kemp (22): More of his solid play, calm feet and good coverage.
- LD Markus Niemelainen (23): More of the same things we saw in Bakersfield.
- RD Mike Kesselring (21): He should grab a regular job and post solid numbers.
- RD Vincent Desharnais (25): AHL contract, he’ll play top-four much of the year.
- LD Yanni Kaldis: AHL contract, undersized, he is effective in support role.
- LC Dylan Holloway (20): A healthy year, point-per-game if he is at 100 percent.
- LC Ryan McLeod (21): Most of the year in the NHL.
- LC Tim Soderlund (23): Support role, penalty kill. I don’t see him as a feature player.
- LW Tyler Benson (23): If he’s in Bakersfield, he is an impact player and forcing a recall.
- LW Raphael Lavoie (21): 20+ goals and an enormous shot total.
- LW Brendan Perlini (25): If he’s in the AHL, Perlini should be one of the top scorers.
- LW Ostap Safin (22): A healthy season, 12-15 goals.
- LW James Hamblin (22): AHL contract, he can score and has utility.
- RW Cooper Marody (24): Productive scorer, same pressure to get a recall as Benson.
- RW Kirill Maksimov (22): A feature role, points-game around .65-.70
- RW Seth Griffith (28): Pure offense and power-play production, mentor the prospects.
Players underlined delivered and then over-delivered in 2021-22. The most controversial name not underlined is probably Dylan Holloway, and my opinion runs contrary to many smart people. Holloway dominated preseason and he’s on the NHL roster, so if he starts scoring goals my concerns about the wrist will fade. However, on draft day, the bullet points included some wonder about how much he’d score. Is he a top-six winger? Middle six? Still some answers needed and the 2021-22 season in Bakersfield didn’t put those questions to bed.
2022-23 BAKERSFIELD CONDORS REASONABLE EXPECTATIONS
- G Calvin Pickard (30): Solid AHL starter and first recall.
- G Ryan Fanti (23): Bit of a wild card, 20 starts and solid numbers seems reasonsable.
- G Olivier Rodrigue (22): Strong first start, reasonable is that effort times 20+ times in the AHL.
- LD Markus Niemelainen (24): NHL and AHL minutes, top two pairings in the AHL.
- LD Philip Broberg (21): Build on last year, make the NHL for good.
- LD Yanni Kaldis (26): Power-play quarterback, second pairing AHL. AHL deal.
- LD Darien Kielb (23): He’s a solid AHL player, makes good plays.
- LD Alex Peters (26): Solid extra man.
- LD Adam Brubacher (26): Needs to play well in depth role.
- RD Jason Demers (34): Top pairing in the AHL, I believe he’ll spend most of the year in the NHL.
- RD Mike Kesselring (22): He’s spiking now. A season where he flourishes in all areas, possible NHL recall.
- RD Phil Kemp (23): Builds on previous seasons, emerges as NHL recall option.
- RD Vincent Desharnais (26): If he is in the AHL, top-four minutes, PK monster.
- LC James Hamblin (23): Strong in all areas, productive offense, NHL recall.
- LC Greg McKegg (30): Solid two-way play AHL, possible NHL recall.
- LC Luke Esposito (28): Versatile play in all areas, mentor role for young wingers.
- RC Filip Engaras (23): Climbing up depth chart with surprising utility and determination.
- RC Drake Rymsha (24): Rugged depth role.
- LW Mattias Janmark (29): Quick return to the NHL.
- LW Tyler Benson (24): Strong performance if he’s in Bakersfield. Point-per-game.
- LW Klim Kostin (23): He brings a physical element and has plenty of skill. NHL time.
- LW Samuel Dove-McFalls (25): Strong, physical winger with skill. Middle-six winger.
- LW Graham McPhee (24): Effective utility winger in the AHL.
- LW Carter Savoie (20): Prominent role when healthy.
- RW Seth Griffith (29): Condors leading scorer, possible NHL recall.
- RW Xavier Bourgault (19): He’s good, he’s working hard. 20+ goals.
- RW Dino Kambeitz (22): Increased minutes and production over a year ago. 15 goals?
- RW Tyler Tullio (20): Regular shifts, 10+ goals and effective two-way play.
- RW Noah Philp (24): Emerging as a Derek Ryan type in the AHL.
- RW Raphael Lavoie (22): Prominent role once healthy. 25-goal pace?
- RW Justin Bailey (27): Rugged winger with skill when healthy. Top-six minutes.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
TSN 1260, 10-2 today, we look at the Oilers options after a Saturday night loss to the Calgary Flames. Markus Niemelainen recall? Then what? Plus MLB playoffs, NFL weekend and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Holy Hell its GREAT to have hockey back. The last 15 minutes of the national broadcasts was pure fire entertainment – great ends to both games (Yotes over Leafs and Habs over Pens in OT).
Monday Night National Hockey – I’m all in!
And the Dy’s blow yet another lead.
Bruce! there he goes?
Why isn’t Anson Carter a broadcast analyst every night on Sportsnet?
He’s a natural.
Couldn’t agree more.
A great story here about Ray Ferraro stepping away https://twitter.com/starsports/status/1582128664023822336?s=61&t=64CNN6uqhWW-fOxVrpMVuw
It’s a shame about Ray
He’s not P.C enough for Sportsnet only yes humankinds need apply.
Niemelainen up..Malone down.
https://twitter.com/dnbsports/status/1582147510906523648?s=21&t=64CNN6uqhWW-fOxVrpMVuw
Would much rather have rained pain on the divisional opponents – but I’ll take it.
As expected: Malone assigned to the Condors and Niemo recalled.
Good timing for the Condors’ blog as Keith Gretzky was on with Bob today:
1) Played a decent game in the opener. A bit scramble. Playing the next day in the afternoon, getting in late, were on heels early but found our legs and played a good game. Good tending and our D was very good. Its a learning curve for these guys.
2) Down a few bodies (Deharnais, Benson)
3) Counting on Stu to make NHL, he’s put his time in down here. It was important to start looking for a goalie. Put names together with goalie coach. Not just having a great tender but a great person that will help mentor the kids – “Pick is great at that”.
Roderigue did give us a good start. Ontario is a high scoring team, scored 8 in their opener. Oly gave us a great game. He’s a 3rd year guy now, its his time.
4) Niemo played good last night, really good. The first night he was fine but wasn’t his normal big hard hitting self. I like the fact he’s not running all over looking for hits and taking himself out of position. Last night he was really a man among boys out there. Big hits. Not taking himself out of position. Blocking shots. Evolving in to a good big shut down d-man. He needed time in the AHL, he needed that
5) How close is Niemo to becoming and NHL d-man? I think he’s really close. He’s in better condition – that really hurt him the last few years. Him coming in a month early really helped him and its showed in his X games. His puck play is improving. He’s not icing the puck all the time but is looking to flip it and make plays. He’s improving.
6) Kemper is solid. Nothing fancy. He’s a warrior and blocks shots. Will give you the same type of game nighty.
7) Kesselring had a great camp. I see big improvements. In the Covid year he looked like he was coming out of school and didn’t really belong – that happens when you are a kid. He’s made big strides. He’s defending better. He’s stronger and that’s something he had to improve on. His conditioning has also improved. He has more confidence with and without the puck. We didn’t sign an older/veteran player last year because we wanted to play the kids. To let them develop. He’s benefited from having all those D a year ago.
8) Hammer is a great 2-way player. Always on the right side of the puck. Tenacious on the puck. Works hard every shift. He wants the puck and gets the puck. Really stood out last night. Same with Griff – really helped us last night.
9) Bourgault – yup, pro jump is huge. Its a tough league. Great goaltenders. You are playing against men and have to learn to compete every shift and learn to work to get the puck and to get the puck back. Its going to take time. Ken believes you need to go down, ride the bus and learn to be a pro and I’m here to guide. Its going to take some time but its two games in. He has a great 2 on 1 and his stick broke – sums it up – going to have to work.
10) Philp and missing time – you could see that he missed time and was a step behind. In Penticton he was a different player. He looked big, was physical, he was on the puck. He seemed to be a step and half behind this weekend – he was off for 8-9 days. It was tough weekend for him but he expect better things.
11) Savoie is closer than Lavoie. We have alot of bodies right now and need to ensure they are 100%. This isn’t playoff hockey. They are close. In the next few weeks they should both be in.
12) McKegg – he was better in the 2nd game but I am looking for more. He’s gone from hardly playing and not scoring alot of goal (in NHL) to a guy playing 18-19 minutes. Need to get his body back in to that type of game shape and to remember how to be that type of a leader. Will be a learning curve and we expected that. We need to get him up and running, it will take a bit of time, like game-ready.
So many ex-Oilers wandering the desert without a contract… end of the line?
Kris Russell
Alex Chiasson
James Neal
Tyler Pitlick
Tyler Ennis
Brandon Perlini
Truckelainen deserved to make the team with his preseason imo, dressing Murray over him is a mistake.
I’m not breaking up a Nurse/Ceci pairing so Murray can look more “positive”
Give me
Nurse/Barrie
Kulak/Ceci
Truckelainen/Bouch.
If Bouch continues to look as checked out as he does, slide in Broberg for a game on his off hand.
Imo they need to end the Murray situation immediately, he’s too much of a known soft target. Move on to their own better prospects, if he was in Bakersfield he’d be on the 3rd pairing if dressing.
Can’t see them giving Truckelainen or Broberg’s minutes to him if they were still down on the farm. So what’s the point? there’s got to be better veteran 7D available then Murray, if they must have a veteran.
Manson might murder the whole lot of them if they refuse to wake up.
A possible trade target for later in the season at LD: Brenden Dillon.
He’s good box-out defender who needs to be paired with puck-mover like Bouchard. Was +16 on a bad Jets team last year.
Cap hit us just under $4M, and expires after next season. Something like a Foegele + a 1st for salary retained would make it work. Jets have Heinola and Stanley they need to work into the lineup, especially if they’re not going to making playoffs.
The price on Chychrun is likely too high. Dillon is the best, most realistic alternative IMO.
Trading NHL player for NHL Player ( or close to it) with Chevy?
Good Luck.
When is Haley’s comet passing by…..
That second year of term is an issue, no? I would think getting Chevy to retain would come at a fairly steep price because, why would he do that without incentive?
That is kinda Bouch’s money that is being spent and which of Nurse/Kulak/Broberg won’t be playing every day in 2023/24 because of Dillon?
I like the target but for the term on the contract.
I think we need to talk about Verdad 2.0 getting a shout-out early on the show this morning…….
I should have known that’s who Al was referencing haha.
1) Wow, great Condors’ write-up Al, thank you. I was paying secondary attention to the Saturday night game but watched all of last night’s game and I agree with most of what you saw over the weekend. High level observations:
a) Hamblin is the motor of the team
b) Kambeitz is “getting a push” – maybe he has a Hamblin-like development?
c) Kesselring continues to press up and parlaying a great 2nd half, development camp nd main camp into a solid start to the AHL season. His name will be in the NHL conversation within 12 months
d) Kemp is starting to “pop” at the AHL level. Not sure he’ll ever have the boots to be an
NHL player but he’s coming. As an aside, he’s wearing an A.
e) Tulio is buried on the 4th line with Engras right now. I don’t think they played a shift in the 2nd period last night but parlayed the go-ahead/winning goal (on a broken dump in play) to more shifts in the 3rd and looked good.
f) I didn’t see Bourgault much on Saturday (although he was out there 4 on 4 in a tie game in the last minute) but noticed him a bit more last night in offensive situations. Not sure I saw him quite as good as Al, and I think its going to be up and down for the season, but I noticed a better second game than first – more puck touches as Al noted.
2) Skinner confirmed starter tomorrow. For me, that’s a no-brainer as he was likely slated to start that game in any event.
3) Tony B. and DNB both talked about a “hard practice” and when DNB asked Woody about it, Woody essentially didn’t agree but noted that it was an NHL level practice. I think he’s trying to get the players to accept an increased level of day to day commitment and work.
4) Woody’s media avail today was very good in my opinion – lots of good detail on how and why things have been breaking down, etc.
5) I’m really looking forward to seeing the likes of Dahlin and Power tomorrow night. Buffalo could/should be a fun team to watch.
6) At the same time, while there is a ton of skill on Buffalo, its time for the Oilers to show they are a “contending team” and not just a top 10 team. Buffalo is no pushover but I expect a plus performance from start to finish. Goal scoring, getting the lead, KEEPING THE LINES TOGETHER, and a multi-goal victory with McDavid/Drai under 20 minute. Its only 2 games in but its time. Dominate a bubble team at home. Just Do It!
All these days off between games really sucks when the team is playing badly!
Today is a very useful video and practice day. I wish they could’ve started on it yesterday to tell you the truth, but the CBA said “day off”.
do you work every single day of the week?
Okay, but what if he did?
Lol
I just meant it would be good for the team to be playing regularly and working through the struggles they’re having. Seems like it might be good for the comments section too!
Days off are for people who have completed their tasks in a timely and positive/efficient manner. I’m not sure the Oilers have done that. In fact it could be said that the team has not even shown up for work on time…if my employees come in late, and don’t do their job, they certainly don’t get days off. Especially if an employee shows that they cannot be on time consistently.
False equivalency there, sir.
Also a gross violation of the Employment Standards Code!
Agreed.
Mike Kesselring building into a legitimate 3d pair NHL option for next year has the biggest potential roster impact.
THE CONTEST now known as – HUNTER1909’S OILERS DYNASTY MARCH™
Here is how it works.
Same rules same everything and all of the previous records will be retained for posterity. Here is how to play: Predict the total points that Oilers finish the season with.
Tie breakers: a) – How many points Connor McDavid gets b) – how many goals Leon Draisaitl scores c) – Where Oilers finish(1-16th in the West)
To Recap: 1 – Predict Oilers final regular season point total 2 – Connormcdavid points 3 – leondraisatl goals 4 – oilers finish in the West(1-16)
DEADLINE!! PUCK DROP PENGUINS GAME 6!!
If this stays in negative I might have to consider flipping a coin to bring back Death March™
Ha!
thanks for doing this Hunter
108 points, McDavid 130 points, Leon 48 goals oilers–sadly 3rd in the west. They need to be rid of the dead weight contracts before they are a true cup contender.
What dead-weight contracts do they have left? Unless you mean the dead buyout (and retained salary) cap hits?
Thanks for the write up LT. Looking fwd to the Bakersfield season as well.
Reviewing this list, there are may 25+ players and a few others on AHL deals this year.
Injury coverage is real, but I certainly hope they keep the development train running hard.
Good on Janmark for going down and being a good soldier.
Him and Demers down there is huge for the AHL kids to be around NHL’ers still fighting for their careers.
Well, maybe….. he hasn’t played as the team is having immigration issues.
First Philp (who is now playing), now Janmark.
Demers, absolutely – topi minutes and I noticed him engaged in various conversations with teammates on the ice through the game.
Looks like you’re missing the RE for Bourgault here, LT! Unless you’re predicting a surprise callup and year in the big leagues 🙂
It’s there now. I wrote it and must have deleted with my magic hands.
Yeah that must be it. Good line, I’ll have to remember it for future use. Again and again
There is nothing I would enjoy more than watching Phil Kemp be called up and play an NHL game. I have known him since he was like 4 years old. Great kid and if you want someone to clear the crease he is your guy. And he can throw a little offense out there once in a while!
That’s awesome. I hope he gets his chance.
I quite liked his game over the weekend. He is becoming a very very solid defender (and 2-way player) at the AHL level and, as per his history, clearly a leader, he’s wearing an A for Chaulk’s Condors in his second pro season.
At the same time, I don’t think we are nearly at “NHL games” yet – as I’m sure you know, skating and mobility have never been a strong part of Kemp’s game, quite the opposite and, while he is clearly working on the part of his game, and improving, I don’t think we are quite there yet. The speed, mobility and skill of NHL players (mainly on the rush) is something special and tough to defend for a player that doesn’t have great mobility.
I’m heartened by Kemp’s progression but not sure he’s there yet.
Just my opinion from watching.
I hope someone can help me understand….after two games it’s panic stations and Niemelainen needs to be called up? I have nothing against the kid at all but this seems a little weird to me.
Roster juggling for the sake of cap management I can understand. Roster juggling because 2 games in you’re reassessing the team’s talent level…hmmmm.
I think they want someone to clear out the front of the net, or at least win 50-50 pucks. I don’t think Niemelainen is the answer, but sitting a veteran or cutting back his playing time will have an impact, too.
LT, I hear you on having patience with the D.
That said, Niemelainen up really paves the way for 11-7 and that has all kinds of positives:
1) Gives the middle six types (JP, Holloway, Nuge, Yamo, etc.) more minutes. Those guys can play more and are a substantial upgrade on Malone/Shore.
2) Matchup chaos and the possibility of exploring more line permutations early in the season.
3) Develop one (or preferably both) of Niemlainen and Broberg faster.
DNB said in his recent piece that the org is bullish on Broberg as top 4 by the end of the season. I strongly believe that also, despite some early hiccups.
Like you, I’m a little less sold on Niemelainen being the answer, but at least you’re getting a guy who aggressively stands up on the line, an area the Oilers have to improve upon in order to be an elite defending squad.
So bullish on Broberg to be top 4 by the end of the year but have managed to get him into zero games anywhere in the first week of the season.
From accounts, he’s banged up. Mike Griffith (reports on the Condors) mentioned he was told that on Saturday night.
Woody looking for some physicality on the back-end besides Nurse. The Oilers can’t afford Nurse in the box or more importantly injured. Let someone else do the dirty work for the time being.
Hyman impacts everything, or Hamblin?
I saw that as well as NHL instead of AHL.
Cut and paste … hopefully Hamblin can find a way to have a Hyman-like career trajectory.