This is from 2016 fall, Edmonton in Pittsburgh and the gap closing between the two teams. At that time, coming anywhere close to a true contender at any point during the season was intoxicating. This Oilers team has had precious few seasons where high expectations have been met, Oilers fans hope this is another.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Are the Oilers finding chemistry with their skill lines?
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers prospects delivering exceptional early performances
- DNB: 5 takeaways from the Oilers’ first 5 games
- Lowetide: Oilers’ defence depth impacted by Philip Broberg’s early woes
- DNB: Warren Foegele Q&A
- Lowetide: Did the Oilers find the right fit for winger Zach Hyman?
- DNB: Another Oilers loss isn’t ideal, but it shows why they have little to be worried about
- DNB: How the Oilers can manage Connor McDavid and star players’ workloads
- Lowetide: 6 Edmonton Oilers positives from an uneven start
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers’ AHL affiliate sustain a productive prospect pipeline?
- DNB: Oilers need Jakob Chychrun or another top-4 defender, as loss to Flames shows
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers early impressions from season-opening win
- DNB: Oilers must adapt to short-handed lineup because it’s coming again
- DNB: Oilers goalie Jack Campbell enters season intent on exceeding expectations
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Evan Bouchard will be a key to 2022-23 season
- New DNB: 11 bold predictions for 2022-23 season
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Reid Schaefer’s NHL ETA?
- DNB: Oilers’ missing pieces? Trade strategy? Breakout player? Mailbag
- Jonathan Willis: Jakob Chychrun would look good on the Oilers, but is there a deal to be had?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers reasonable expectations for every player in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Oilers top-20 prospects, summer 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN OCTOBER
- At home to: VAN, CGY, BUF, CAR, STL, PIT (Expected 4-1-1) (Actual 2-3-0)
- On the road to: STL, CHI, CGY (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 5-2-2, 12 points in 9 games
- Actual October results: 2-3-0, 4 points in 5 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 2-3-0, 4 points in 5 games
Oilers have few easy outs this month (Buffalo was supposed to be, and Chicago isn’t cooperating with the rebuild), so tonight’s game is a big one. A 2-4-0 start isn’t shattering, but heading out on the road in need of a sweep to finish the month one game above .500 is unrealistic considering the opponents. Penguins are 4-0-1 with a goal differential of +15, so hold on to your ass.
DEVELOPMENT ON DEFENSE
We all have out favourite metrics when discussing defensemen. Here are the Oilers defensemen, sorted by expected goals five-on-five (all numbers via Natural Stat Trick) through five games. Check out the rookie!
It’s important to remember that third pairing defensemen usually flourish in straight up measures, but the expected goals and Corsi rel give a more balanced look at these players. Among veterans, Ceci, Nurse and Bouchard are strong across each metric, while young Markus Niemelainen is looking good in early games. The struggling defensemen on this list are Murray, Barrie and Kulak. How long before Niemelainen passes Murray in icetime?
OILERS NUMBERS THROUGH FIVE
Six forwards and a few defensemen are carrying the mail offensively, but in truth it’s still to early to rage about individual scoring. I do like paying attention to the HDSC early in the year, it’s interesting to see who is getting chances and not finding the range. Zach Hyman had nine in the first five games last season, just one goal. This year, it’s six HDSC and zero goals for Hyman, 9-1 for Evander Kane, 5-0 for JP. These wingers are getting chances. I think you’ll find this morning’s article on the forwards interesting. Kind of a fumbling toward ecstasty thing happening. This will be billed as McDavid v. Crosby but for me it’s a chance to see an old favourite (Jeff Petry) reminding us why trading young defensemen is the world idea ever.
XAVIER BOURGAULT
A big night for Oilers prospect Xavier Bourgault, who scored twice last night for the Bakersfield Condors. Both were gorgeous in their own way and the young man is 2-2-4 in five games. That’s great production. Dylan Holloway was 1-4-5 in his first five AHL games, further evidence the Oilers pipeline is producing strong forwards after several years of delivering impressive defensemen.
What was the score?
After a slow start the Oilers are hovering around top ten in all the advanced stats categories. That’s a good sign.
Oilers should have a nice schedule down the stretch judging by the first bunch of games. Things bode well.
I still think they need a d upgrade. Hopefully they can find the right guy at the deadline.
I wonder what Cale Makar had for lunch today?
Kale. Same as always.
Oh boy, many Makar bowel movement updates coming.
Drai stating, “we need to find a 60 minute game pretty soon.”
No shit.
They were pretty damn close tonight – Pens probably had the better first but that wasn’t because the Oilers didn’t show up – that’s a super fast and talented team that were dishing the puck around with crazy skill and speed.
I’m not sure why you disagree with Leon here…?
because I think they played hard for 60 minutes and, while probably the inferior team in the first, still had a decent first period despite the score.
He’s on the team, Coop. In the leadership group. Is there a fairer judge of the team’s effort in the first period?
Of course and, sure but, at the same time, I can have my opinion of what I saw even if you or Leon or everyone disagrees with it. Not saying I’m right but its what I saw, though, felt.
Really enjoyed that game – all three lines churning out a strong forecheck made things far easier for the defence and Campbell tonight. We keep dumping on the defensemen but they wouldn’t have to defend as much if the Oilers forwards would consistently skate and battle the way they have tonight.
Yamamoto, Jesse and Foegele are still stuck in the mud unable to produce much offence in the early going. I feel like Foegele is at least creating something with his dishes. Yamo and Jesse get to the net and have had some great chances, but they don’t have the skill to cash those chances. For Yamo, it’s a problem of not having enough strength to get a good shot off. For Jesse … he keeps shooting low instead of high … he’s too conservative in tight and just shoots point-blank chance right at the goalie. Not sure if it’s his head or his hands … or a combination of the two. He’s more Magnus-Paajarvi than Jere Lehtinen at this point.
All three are strong forecheckers, but they is a large gap in impact between these three and the top part of the line-up (McDavid, Draisaitl, RNH, Kane, Hyman, and McLeod). All three are slightly overpaid, but not egregiously so. I wouldn’t be surprised if Holland flips 2 out the 3 in a trade(s) at some point this season.
trade them for what?
I also wouldn’t be surprised if all three spent the season in Edmonton. I’m not saying they’re not useful players .. but the three of them make close to 9 million in salary with only 1 assist to show for it. Eventually you go looking for better value.
Tough to move wingers right now though. I’m hoping they get untracked soon and start putting up some crooked numbers.
Recall that in 2022 $3M buys you a high end 3rd line forward (Yamamoto with the richest deal of the 3 is the 196th highest paid forward in the NHL this season).
That’s a six game window, Doc. What kind bet would you like to make on 6 straight coin flips? Not the most proximate analogy, sure, but so much of the game is simply pushing against the margins that guard the center of the bell curve. 50/50s. Whether it be puck battles, face offs, scoring chances, etc…
Get an edge that will pay off over the long term and damn the short.
Sorry, I wandered. Point is, early days.
Mark my words … this season will finally seal the argument and Nuge will have/display that “drafted-number-1-overall” level of performance. He’s always been very good & super skilled, but hasn’t really broken through to live up to the high expectations of a #1 pick. This is his year.
If he continues to play with 97 he will have an unreal year. Even with 29, plus first unit powerplay, of course. Nuge should be a min 70 point guy, really, in this situation. Anything over that is gravy, IMO.
Is this the year he finally gets 50 points??
Puljujarvi had a good game eh .
LOL.
Bob highlights Sam Gamgee’s 3 goals in 6 games this season…
There’s the team we’ve been waiting all year to watch….best game so far by A LOT.
Pool was the worst Oiler on the ice tonight…by A LOT.
Yep, by a lot.
Was 97 getting hurt the TSN turning point?
There’s not really any question is there..
Is that the shock to mentality required? Serious question, cause, man.
Or was it simply the good luck on the PP goal?
That was the team we saw last year and had not seen this season except for odd shifts.
I appreciate the transformative moment but I worry that it’s required.
I think I’m lucky not to have been able to watch much this season so far.
That said, I think tonight was a bit of everything. Luck, shock, plus the man… part.
I feel like the Oilers are a team that’s not going to have you liking their process 82 games a year. And also still learning ‘how to win’, by which I mean, how to bring that game more consistently. And I’m not convinced they’ll ever bring it as consistently as you like.
Their high end is really high though. And they do seem to be able to play a complete game when they need/want to. More practice at it would do them good, but…
Were the 80’s Oilers a bit like this? I’m too young to have watched their heyday (1990 was the only Cup I watched) so I really don’t know. I feel like they turned it on when they needed to rather than playing the Calgary or St. Louis game for 82+ games a year though.
Woodcroft has been talking about building through the season, and I think that’s by design (I agree I think). We’ll see where it takes them.
The old Oil took more liberties after they destroyed the standings and won a Cup. They had trouble winning their division after that.
I’ll have to take your word for it. It doesn’t appear they were ever a lockdown team though.
Checking their GA numbers, they peaked at 7th/21 teams in 81-82, then were 11th/21 in both 83 and 84 when they lost to/beat the Islanders. Hovered in that league average range after as well.
I guess we’re not only talking about GA though. It would definitely be + if the Oilers can take the expected step forward this season.
They were never shutdown style except in the playoffs but it was a completely different world then, JP. That was something a line did, not a team.
What a game. Wish we could bottle up that second period. That was the Oilers version I wanna watch Every game!
Most of our goals came off of outworking the others, winning battles and getting to the net. Recipe for success, right there.
The apparent injury to Connor made the team get their asses in gear. Also forced the switch of centres and, BOOM! Chemistry!!!
What A Game!!!
Eastern Conference team on the road but the Oil never let it get out of hand in the 3rd period. Well done. Hopefully this means Manwood is finally back for good.
Meh – its their first game of the Western trip and, like the Oilers, hadn’t played since Sat. They travelled but gained two hours….
I don’t think fatigue was factor, you?
Don’t think I even mentioned it…
I must have misunderstood the intent of “eastern team on the road….”…..
Technically, no. It was clearly implied though.
My comment was focused on Give-A-Shit meter
Is this the most goals the Oilers have scored in a game without McDavid getting a point (excepting injuries)?
Has to be. But he gets an assist on the last couple for taking an injury break.
Big W. Just please, keep playing like this.
Well, that was fun – maybe DNB should be unavailable for coverage more often.
Fully 60 minute effort – nope, the first wasn’t “dominating” like the rest of the game but they stared on time and had an OK first period (except for the 6 minutes on the kill).
Going through the numbers on this one will be fun
Didn’t spot the opponent the 3-goal lead. So that’s an improvement for the Oilers.
And they scored first again!
Still undefeated when doing that thing.
I guess there’s no way to claim the 2nd wasn’t their strongest period, that was absurd.
The 3rd was super strong too though. That’s what truly good teams have, the ability to shut it down when they’re up. That quiet 3rd was great to see.
Most enjoyable dash by Ryan and feed to the Highlander who finishes like he couldn’t last year. Great arrows.
That’s a really nice goal.
That’s why Ryan is a hell of a 4th liner. Great snipe by McLeod as well obv.
Really strong 3rd period by the Oilers, that’s the biggest story.
Fuck the Penguins and their 6 goals a game!
The Oilers also win a lot of games when they score 6.
Derek Ryan has a large hockey brain.
Except on his previous shift, right?
Touché but redemption is a dish best served warm:)
That wasn’t really a penalty though, was it?
He dug his stick in to the hands, did he not?
No need to get the stick parallel or anywhere near that area behind the opposition goal line with a 2-goal lead in the 3rd…..
The stick did get in there in some sense. I didn’t see any digging or tugging though, and I don’t think that play ends up a penalty 8 or 9 times out of 10.
Ryan McLeod is gonna be expensive next offseason
I wouldn’t be surprised if they’ve already agreed on terms and will sign it once able to (January 1 being such date)
McLeod is just an amazing player.
I betcha 3mil would’ve had him in Oilers silk for 5 years this offseason. Too bad.
I’ve loved him since day one…lock him up!
There can be only one.
THERE CAN BE ONLY ONE!
I love it when the MacLeod scores .
BOOM!!! Ryan sets up the Highlander for a great shot!!!
Great goal
Ryan redeems himself (almost surprised he was put back out there) – GREAT finish by McLeod after a wonderful pass by Rya.
Highlander!!!!! Terrific pass by Ryan!
McLeod with a vicious finish.
Highlander!
Another pretty goal.
25 second board battle, time ticks and the Oilers come away with the puck…..
Great kill
One of the best PKs of the season……
Absolutely
Come on, Ryan. You know better than to get your stick there. Big kill coming…
Oh, Ryan, offensive zone penalty – exactly the last thing to do right now.
Great chance but that chemistry, though!!!
Game-saver by Jarry – great 3-way passing play by that line – Kane with a good shot there.
If Foegele could have that Hyman moment at the same age…
Foegele’s had a nice game.
He’s had a nice season to me but, damn, zeros still…..
Amazing play by Drai at the line there to stay onside….
Damn, Jesse! Keep working, buddy! It’s gonna come! Foggy looking the most confident I’ve ever seen him. Loving that line!
So Ryan has taken over from Jesse as 3RW – wonder if its injury related.
Ooop, I guess not – they seemed to split that shift….
Shore–Jesse–Drai was 13’s last shift
Thanks.
Ya, I can’t figure out the deployment.
No one can. They were back to Foggy–McLeod–Pujo right before the powerplay
Lots of different combinations with 11-7
I wouldn’t be adverse to a Leaf win in regulation with zero Matthews goals….. or points.
Manwood appears to have some staying power.
Archie v. Nemo has been a thing this game.
Unpopular opinion, Archibald was a fun player to watch most nights.
This seems to be a thing.
Not unpopular with me. I really enjoyed Archie’s game.
I may have spent too much of last season on Reddit/Twitter, lol.
No that was here too.
Just not everyone thought Archibald was sub-replacement level.
Is Nurse/Barrie and Kulak/Ceci a thing or just a 7D type of thing for a shift?
9.25M dollar slide right there!
Drink!
+22 shot differential is the highest this season in the League
I can’t believe Barrie didn’t get an interference PIM there…….
Intelligent switch by Nurse and Barrie though
Per Gregor (and I’m sure many others), Pens did not get a shot in the last 15:50 of that period.