The Nut

by Lowetide

The Edmonton Oilers are going to make news this week, a series of transactions required to get cap compliant with Evander Kane returning to the lineup. This is going to be…interesting. The cover photo involves one major trade, five players involved in a deal with the Washington Capitals.

At the same time, friend of the blog Eric Rodgers sent me the goal differentials for Edmonton’s skaters so far this season. Below the fold, we look at defensemen and forwards the Eric Rodgers (smart!) way.

THE ATHLETIC!

WHAT TO EXPECT IN JANUARY

  • At home to: SEA, NYI, COL (Expected 1-1-1) (Actual 1-1-1)
  • On the road to: LAK, ANA, SJS, VEG (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 3-1-0)
  • At home to: SEA, TBAY (Expected 0-1-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • At home to: CBJ, CHI (Expected 2-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
  • January expected result: 7-3-2, 16 points in 12 games
  • January actual result: 4-2-1, 9 points in 7 games
  • December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
  • November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
  • October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
  • Oilers in 2022-23: 24-18-3, 51 points in 45 games

POTENTIAL OILERS ROSTER AFTER KANE’S RETURN

This is the roster I’d choose, but there’s some heartbreak here. Derek Ryan is in the AHL, Ryan Murray is on LTIR, Devin Shore is also in the AHL and the roster is just 21 deep. If you have any ideas, call the Oilers! By the way, I love these lines, and as you may read today, I’m warming up to the defense.

THE NUT

“The nut” is an old timey phrase that comes down from old England, and all our little old ancestors (I’m sorry, watched My Cousin Vinny this weekend). It means either “the amount of money that must be earned in order to break even” or “a hard problem or undertaking” and in this case, both apply.

Edmonton needs to move out a contract. I think it will be one of Jesse Puljuarvi or Warren Foegele, but am uncertain if it happens now. We could see something like the roster above against Seattle, or we could see a trade.

In this model I have Tyson Barrie and Jesse Puljujarvi heading to the Washington Capitals for Nick Jensen, Sonny Milano and Garnet Hathaway. Edmonton reduces the cap enough to get 23 men on the roster, resets the defense and adds a couple of useful wingers for the stretch run and playoffs. Only Milano has any term, one year left on a most reasonable contract. YMMV and I welcome your trade thoughts.

Nick Jensen is my target, his performance this season versus elites has been virtuoso level. In 266 minutes, his DFF percentage (Smart Corsi) is 54.8 and that’s almost 10 percent better relative to his teammates. Music! It’s the best possible bet I see in putting a pairing together who can face the toughest opposition.

CONDORS BLUE, BY ERIC RODGERS

Signed Oilers in bold and with an asterisk, I spared no expense. Rodgers has been doing this for exactly one forever, and it’s extremely valuable information. This is a challenging season for the Condors, but several prospects are delivering quality. Phil Kemp shows well here, Mike Kesselring’s struggles in goal differential place his season in a different light. Still lots to like, but taking on the bigger minutes (both he and Kemp are playing larger roles this season) have separated the two in defensive reputation. Some luck involved of course, but this information does inform us about the current state of the defense in Bakersfield.

Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen and Vincent Desharnais are all currently in the NHL, I think Niemelainen could be heading to Bakersfield as part of the cull when Kane arrives. Worth noting that once again the Condors pipeline is productive. Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, William Lagesson, Evan Bouchard, Philip Broberg, Markus Niemelainen and Vincent Desharnais have all arrived on NHL rosters since 2017 fall.

CONDORS FORWARDS BY ERIC RODGERS

More interesting facts from the Rodgers release. Noah Philp looks fantastic by these numbers, and as a RHC who can play in any situation, and who is good in the face-off dot, it isn’t beyond reason we could see a recall in the calendar year 2023. Other rookies who show well are Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio, with Carter Savoie off the pace so far this season. None of these numbers is earth shattering or would suggest major issues but it’s a fascinating snapshot.

Raphael Lavoie is worth noting here. His points-game and even strength goal share show him to be matriculating well, and that matches the eye test. Interesting times in Bakersfield.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

TSN 1260, 10-2 today, featuring TSN Insider Darren Dreger and a close monitor of Oilers transactions (should they come). We’ll spend a major part of the day talking NFL, what a wild weekend and it sets up another terrific set of games this coming weekend. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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Bag of Pucks

LT, I actually laughed out loud when you said you bought Madonna’s “coffee table book.” Well played sir.

Here’s a great tune mentioning that very thing: https://youtu.be/FGL-2Zg2bqw

Bag of Pucks

Given Kailer Yamamoto’s injury history, I would suggest we’ve reached the point now where two things can be true.

1) Drafting coke machines was bad business. Drafting skill is good business.
2) Smaller players can be less effective when the games get physical and they have the potential to be more injury prone. For every St. Louis and Fleury that beat the odds, there are dozens that do not.

I’ve said it for years. If all things are equal RE and skill wise, a smart org should draft the bigger player. This isn’t bias. It’s mitigating the risks associated with smaller, less physical players.

There’s been a consistent effort to declare the Yamamoto pick as good process from day one because it prioritized numbers (quantitative) over saw him good (qualitative). Actual best practice from an analytics pov is a marriage of the two disciplines. The data should support what the eye sees and vice versa.

Smaller players present with higher risks from a procurement perspective. Yamamoto is proving that in real-time. It doesn’t make someone an anti-data mouth breather when we acknowledge that reality.

The silver lining is the Oil are essentially getting a draft do over now with Kostin having been taken 9 picks after Yamo.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bag of Pucks
Reja

N.H.L tried to pull a fast one in the wrong State.

godot10

Jokinen on Puljujarvi…
https://yle.fi/a/74-20012698

Halfwise

Ollie says JP is a “world class player who needs a change of scene.” Probably valid, Thanks for the link.

jp

Weird night on the scoreboard.

Central Division wins:
Dallas
Colorado
Nashville
St. Louis

Pacific Division loses:
Vegas
Seattle
Calgary
(ya ya, Sharks and Ducks OT loses, but who cares?)

jp

So:

WIN +15
DAL +14
SEA +13
VEG +13
MIN +10
LAK +10
EDM +6
CGY +6
—–
COL +5
NSH +3
STL +2
VAN -4
SJS -10
ARI -12
ANA -15
CHI -15

GarbanzoHumanBean

Flames needing a win and loading up with Stone and Zadorov in the final minute. Hahaha

kgo

Kraken and knights lose in regulation today

Optimism is like heroin

How good would horvat make our top 9?
McD-Drai-Yamamoto
Horvat-Kane-Hyman
RNH-Janmark-Kostin

kgo

Lol yamo on the 1st line

Optimism is like heroin

McD and Drai have both said they like playing with him and it’s more about spreading the wealth over 3 lines.

kgo

What else are they going to say? Yamo has squandered his opportunity…he was given 200games in the top 6 with Connor or Leon as his pivot and barely put up 0.5ppg including that heater 2nd half 3 years ago. He’s got city miles on him, plays an unsustainable style for his stature, doesn’t have the speed or elusive skill required to produce let alone survive. Don’t get me wrong he has the heart of a lion, I’m glad he made it and put a couple mil in the bank…but yamo is not a championship calibre player. I hope he proves me wrong

jp

What do you make of the 60%+ goal share he’s had with Draisaitl over years? (not much I take it)

kgo

Drai could have played the last 3 years shorthanded and would still have a 50% + goal share…

As I said above, I love Yamo’s heart and attitude, and I hope he proves me wrong.

Yamo is constantly deployed in our top 6, but I would argue he’s materially worse than McD, Drai, Nuge, Kane, Hyman, Holloway, Kostin, McLeod, Janmark..

He should be paid and deployed as a skilled energy 4th liner.

jp

He kind of already has proved you wrong.

If you take McDavid minutes out of the equation, Draisaitl+Yamamoto have a 61% goal share at 5v5 (in 1519 minutes together) over the last 4 seasons.

Over the same span, Draisaitl without Yamamoto (and without McDavid) has a goal share of 44% in 1023 minutes.

If you can believe it (you probably can’t) the Draisaitl-Yamamoto numbers are actually better than McDavid-Draisaitl without Yamamoto.

I did not run the shorthanded numbers though.

kgo

What was Yamo’s Goal Share during the playoffs?

jp

40%.

Would you believe he was sunk by being 1GF-4GA with Draisaitl (without McDavid). The trio was 4-3 goals together.

Draisaitl was 0-5 without Yamamoto or McDavid.

kgo

Drai was probably taking important Dzone draws or getting stuck on the ice after penalties expired. You expect me to believe that Drai was dragging down Yamo?

Redbird62

Draisaitl was playing hurt even before the take down by Anderson (he first hurt himself crashing into the boards and missed 2 games of the regular season). He was giving the puck away like it was candy at the start of the playoffs against the Kings and not skating well. Woody had to move him beside Connor for the rest of the playoffs where he was very effective.

kgo

it was 40%, worse than all regular top 6 players and worse than Kassian.

kgo

Comparing yamo to puljujarvi is kind of silly no? They play very different games. How can you know the puck doesn’t go in the right direction despite him being on the ice? I’m pointing out his shortcomings because I think having him in the top 6 brings this roster down. Again, I love his heart and hope he proves me wrong.

Ryan

Thinking about the Kraken expansion list for the Blues.

I can’t figure out why they exposed Vince Dunn instead of Krug?

Dunn’s Turturo numbers were ridiculous in his last year in St. Louis.

The 2020-1 PuckIQ numbers for St. Louis look glitched, but Dunn was sheltered the year prior.

EW had Dunn at 58th percentile in his last year in St. Louis while Krug was at 41st percentile.

Not much press about Dunn and St. Louis making a mistake. Is this a bit like the Theodore loss in Anaheim?

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Harpers Hair

Just listened to Marek and Friedman discussing this very topic.

They agreed that Dunn, like Theodore in Anaheim, just needed an opportunity but were blocked by vets.

GarbanzoHumanBean

I’m listened as well. Timing is a major factor in opportunity. Glad to see him flourishing. Similar to Klim getting a chance.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Those Turturo numbers are… interesting to say the least. Not surprising Dunn looked like such an outlier. Have you brought up any of the current Oilers defensemen? Kulak, Bouchard and Barrie looking pretty rosy.

Is there a more recent dataset? Last year tracked on that link is 2020.

Ryan

Is there a more recent dataset? Last year tracked on that link is 2020.

I believe so, but it would be behind a paywall.

https://www.allthreezones.com/

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
Scungilli Slushy

By PuckIQ in Dunn’s last season in St Louis Krug looks like their best D

Only part of the info as Woodguy says

Ryan

Are we looking at the same year?

Krug was 3rd in ctoi% vs elites with a DFF% of 40.6 that year.

Scandella was 1st vs elites with a DFF% of 44.

jp

They had just signed Krug to the big deal the previous summer, and he’d performed as expected I think (23:30 a game, PP1, 0.63 points/game, good on ice numbers).

Though Dunn got up to 19 minutes a game he was still 3rd pair in total and 5v5 TOI/game. He’d only played 16 minutes and change the year before.

Also super sheltered by PuckIQ, and the on ice numbers in 20-21 were pretty bad as well (much worse than Krug’s, though they were strong in previous years).

Looks like he got PP2 minutes and no PK time at all (7 total PK minutes his last 2 seasons in STL).

Seems like a very classic sheltered 3rd pairing Dman at the time Seattle picked him, who’d had bad on ice results in his last year in STL to boot.

Ryan

With the Covid schedule, we get some really funny looking PuckIQ numbers for 2020-21.

Look at the CTOI% for the Oilers vs the St. Louis Blues.

For Edmonton defensemen, the range in CTOI% vs elites is 20 to 37.5% (a fairly normal range)

For St Louis Blues, the range in CTOI% vs elites is 10 to 17.5%

The toughest assignment on the Blues that season is lower than most minutes that bottom pairing players play, for most years.

Sure they had a lot of games against the Yotes and Sharks, but they still played against Colorado, Minnesota, and Vegas.

jp

I was talking mostly about the previous years in STL where he was always at the bottom of the %TOI elites list.

I had actually forgotten STL played in the West during the Covid season. The numbers make more sense now, there just weren’t many ‘elite’ players in that division. If you look the % elite numbers for the other teams are also really low.

The North division (McDavid, Matthews, Gaudreau etc) did have more ‘elite’ players by the PuckIQ definition (and keep in mind the ‘elite’ list would have been based on the 19-20 season, so a guy like Kaprizov wasn’t even in the league yet).

Pretty sure Dunn’s ranking on STL for 20-21 (6th of 7 who played 30 games) should also be accurate.

Ryan

Looking at the minutes…

Dunn played 16:43 at 5v5 and 19:14 total for St. Louis. (3rd pair)

1st year in Seattle is 17:21 at 5v5 and 20:40 total. (2nd pair)

Next season. 19:08 at 5v5. 23:40 total (2:41 pp/ 50 seconds pk) // (top QOC with Larsson) (1st pair)

43 gp: 8-24-32 +27.

Seems like a very classic sheltered 3rd pairing Dman at the time Seattle picked him…
who improved over the course of the next two seasons evolving into a top pairing defenseman.

He just turned 26, so it wasn’t crazy to project some improvement.

jp

For sure not crazy to project improvement, though I definitely don’t think anyone (especially at expansion draft time) would have had 1LD expectations for Dunn.

Even last season in Seattle his on ice numbers weren’t great (negative GF%, xGF%, etc).

Dunn-Larsson have clearly been a strong 1st pair this season, but I’m pretty skeptical about them going forward. Their numbers together are all over 50%, but they’ve been running major luck to get to elite (1056 PDO, and the scoring chance number are even weaker than the shot numbers).

Good pick by Seattle even if they regress to their underlying numbers though.

Ryan

Pretty funny, but I just found an article about Dunn.

It actually combines everything in my thread hre from the Turtoro numbers to Evolving Wild player ratings (You can see what they look like) along with video.

https://eprinkside.com/2021/02/01/seller-beware-if-the-st-louis-blues-really-are-shopping-vince-dunn

jp

Yeah, he did have really nice on ice numbers in 17-18 and 18-19.

Genjutsu

Pretty sure there was a pretty nasty contract dispute with Dunn is St Louis and I’d imagine that had a big factor in this.

leadfarmer

Wooah. What’s Guerin doing? 7×7 is a ridiculous commitment. And yes I do like Boldy a lot. But shipping Fiala out because you don’t have money because you have 15 mil in dead cap space you’d think Boldy was getting bridged

Reja

Last time I looked at the standings the no name Wild were 10 games over 500. You know Billy isn’t going to take any gruff from some punk ass kids. Billy is building a playoff team that’s going to not be a easy out starting this Playoff.

Harpers Hair

You know…even with the $12.7 million in dead cap the Wild are carrying, they are currently almost $8 million under the cap and will have more than $16 million in deadline cap space to play with if they want to take a run.

That’s pretty nice work.

ristojalo

Calm down Arvid.

leadfarmer

Who said no name?
They need to make a push the next few years and need cap space

Reja

I like Dino Ciccarelli and Bobby Smith as well.

Harpers Hair

No need for a bridge…Dumba at $6 million coming off the cap and Calen Addison has already won that job.

Smart move to lock in Boldy now since he should be a huge bargain when the cap jumps.

leadfarmer

Actually it isn’t. They need that cap space. They should be all in on Horvat and his contract extension
also while Addison has taken the pp spot from Dumba he plays a very sheltered 3rd pairing while Dumba still plays over 20 min a night. And we all know young players develop in a straight line right?

Harpers Hair

That cap space is already accounted for.

Ryan

One of the best things about the ghost is how underrated he is. Even Seravalli has him has a 3rd pairing PP specialist.

Over the past three years (including this one), the ghost playing on an also ran team with scrubs is actually in the top 22 in d in total offensive production (5v5).

18 Rasmus Dahlin – 21g 59p
19 Nurse – 22g 58p
20 Brent Burns – 13 g 54 p
21 Douggie Hamilton – 19 g 54 p
22 Ghost 19g 54 p
23 Chychrun 18 g 54 p
24 Brett Pesce 9 g 52 p
25 Rasmus Anderson 9 g 52 p
26 Thomas Chabot 13 g 52 p

That my friends is some good company to be in.
….

33 Tyson Barrie 11g 49 p

He’s inside the top 20 in points/60 at 5v5 for d who played more than 2500 min at #18th.

Top 5 on this list?

1 Makar
2 Karlsson
3 Fox
4 Josi
5 Toews

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
jp

Yeah, he looks at or very near the top of the value for money (acquisition cost) list, even if he isn’t an ideal stylistic match.

Ryan

Remember those microstats that Leadfarmer used to link to? I couldn’t find it again until just recently.

https://public.tableau.com/app/profile/christopher.turtoro/viz/A3ZPerformanceTool/A3ZDash

The three-year numbers show Ghost as really proficient in controlled entries and exits.

He’s really good in transition too.

Scungilli Slushy

Ghost has a lot of talent

But because he’s tiny needs the right partner. Do the Oilers have that player?

Because guys like him get worked without them

NHL SID would say this: Offensively there are exits and entries. Defensively there are defending entries, retrieval and in zone D play like coverages and disrupting passes. Seems right to m

This season strengths:

Nurse – retrieval struggling with rest of it
Ceci – in zone he’s ok not the rest
Barrie – defensive exits and offensive entries, at times
Kulak – defensive entries only
Bouch – all entries and passing
Bro – all of it is growing and close to the best
Niems / Des who knows over time?

I’m not seeing his partner

Ryan

The Oilers are a tough fit for him though he’s a clear upgrade over Kulak.

You could pair Ghost with Ceci, on the second pairing

That would leave Nurse to play with Bouch. Bouch fills in with the Ethan Bear role of being able to help Nurse with the outlet passing. Maybe if you’re running 7 d, then you have Desharnais for a Nurse Desharnais shutdown pairing.

Nurse – Bouch/Desharnais
Ghost – Ceci
Kulak/Bro – Barrie

jp

I even wonder about Gost-Bouchard.

Keith-Bouchard worked really well last year. Gost is not Keith, but there are some similarities.

Spartacus

If he were an Oiler, his name would be Ghost-Bear.

He’s not an Oiler.

Until he becomes an Oiler, the name is Goat’s-Beard.

Not even a good goat, more the kind that pisses in it’s own beard.

jp

Yes, he can play hockey (and I think that’s actually Holland’s #1 evaluation criteria).

Ideally the Oilers would add someone who can help break a cycle and clear the net front as well as play hockey, but that gets a lot more expensive (assets and probably cap).

Gost’s microstats do look excellent, but I just can’t get too excited about them. They’re also telling me Ekblad can’t move the puck, and Larsson is a giant pile of crap everywhere. There’s some value there, but I feel like they often miss the forest for the trees.

31saves

Interesting thought… I looked at our Goalies GSAA on the PK this season.

So far, the Oilers have been shorthanded a total of 181 times. Our penalty kill percentage is 74.2%, which is far off the league average, and mingling in the bottom 10 of the league with Seattle, LA, Montreal, Arizona and the like.

According to Moneypuck, 7 of the bottom 10 goalies in PK GSAA all belong to the Pacific Divsion. Stuart Skinner lands as the 7th lowest in the league with 4.2 Goals allowed above the expected amount. Jack Campbell is slightly higher, but still the 19th from the bottom, and wedged between Korpisalo and Copley with 2.3 goals allowed above the expected amount. Taken altogether, Our goalies have allowed 6.5 goals over what would be expected with league average tending (on the PK).

So the Oilers have allowed 36 goals on 181 attempts. Take away 6 of those goals from league average goaltending, and the Oilers have a league average penalty kill. Actually, scratch that, an ELITE penalty kill.

Those 6 saves at the right time would have meant the Oilers PK would be at 83.5%, and that is good enough right now for top 5 in the league, right behind the Sharks, and only a few percentage points away from the Bruins.

I am not saying that we should discount those goals, or take them away, because they happened. The point is, that the goaltending might be more to blame, than the PK or different set-ups, and that maybe the Oilers elite PK from last year hasn’t evaporated overnight. Its also a cautionary tale about small sample sizes, since, we have played over half the season, been shorthanded a little less than 200 times, and the difference between the Oilers at 24th in the league is 6 goals away from being top 5.

hopeoil

Public metrics don’t track puck movement and that’s a key part of the PP. I’m wary of using those to blame the goaltending. I believe Tippett’s PK always finished better than the shot metrics would have suggested (iirc, could be mistaken)

Skinner is well into the positive side of the ledger with most public metrics I’ve seen at 5v5. Seems reasonable to believe he shows worse on the PK because the Oilers give up the “royal road” too often.

jp

the difference between the Oilers at 24th in the league is 6 goals away from being top 5.

Small sample sizes are crazy.

Really interesting look.

In a completely different direction, the Oilers PK is also very much improved in recent times relative to earlier in the year.

They’ve give up 13 goals in their last 20 games. 6.89 GA/60, which is 13th best in the league. 4 of those 13 were in the LAK game, so they’ve been near the top of the league without that one.

Though small sample sizes are still crazy.

winchester

As Fabio eludes to earlier, Leon should certainly be resting during all star break. I hope he opts out with this as an understandable reason.

He can hold his own on the ice, but when he does take a hit, it can be thunderous. Besides potential lower back into the playing gate, he took some big hits lately, a head to the chin, what looked like an ankle twist.

FabioRoberto

Concur:)

BornInAGretzkyJersey

If Leon opts out he gets a suspension. Happened to Ovi years back when he needed a rest, and the league obliged with some extra time off.

DevilsLettuce

Can’t they scratch him before the Chicago game due to injury and bypass any league discipline?

We can send them #1 overall pick Nuge in place of.

W

It’s 1 game I believe.

innercitysmytty

I agree he should skip it if he’s selected. Ovi got suspended for a game because he wanted to skip it and take a few extra days off. IIRC Crosby, and possibly others, have skipped it because they were nicked up with nagging injuries, even though they were still playing their teams’ games before and after the all-star game. Crosby was not suspended, and if Leon is legitimately playing injured he could likely skip it without a suspension.

maudite

targets RW & LHD maybe RHD
Needs cap out so capable to run 22+ roster (foegle, puj, kulak, barrie)

ARIZONA
nick bjugstad c/RW, 900k
* 13 min/g – 2:30 min/g pk
Jacob chychrun LHD, 4.6 million

EDM
Kulak (2.75 mil), foegle (2.75 mil),
+++

What is the cost to balance? Because, personally, I’d be willing to pay pretty steeply. For 22/23 man roster capable, bottom 6 monster of a RHC who pks and upgrade on LHD options.

You can always trade barrie or chychrun in summer if they decide to alter defense.

This improves this year and next.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
maudite

2023 1st, 2023 2nd, 2023 3rd, bourgault?

If I could I’d even add puj with 50% retained and a 4th or be stumping hard for kuzmenko puj deal (2024 1ST, whatever retained required)

Fix it this deadline. Aim for good run this year and the mother of all runs next season (top 6 RW and whatever defender better suits makeup)

They have 3 years. If they can win a cup in these 3 years big problems on horizon may have way better solutions. Worth gamble.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
maudite

Hyman McDavid kuzmenko
Kane drai yam
Janmark rnh kostin
Holloway McLeod bjugstad

Nurse ceci
Chychrun barrie
Broberg Bouchard

Niemo/des, ryan

That’s a solid roster and if kuzmenko a good fit there’s your top 6 RW signing with bonus tryout to assure.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

I can’t imagine the Canucks would find Jesse (negative value) to be an inducement in a trade for Kuzmenko no matter how much retained.

The latest word on Kuzmenko is that the Canucks management will be meeting his agent shortly to try and hammer out an extension.

If that fails, I expect they will be looking for a 2023 1st round pick in return.

Jim Rutherford did an hour long availability today and claimed his timeline to be competitive is 3 years and I don’t think a late 2024 draft pick would fit those parameters.

maudite

If you were kuzmenko, would you really care to sign for a team that might be competitive in 3 years?

Harpers Hair

Apparently he loves Vancouver which is why he signed with them in the first place.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Chychrun is overrated. And overpriced.

maudite

Do ghost then and reduce prices significantly. Or at least do feogle for bjustad. That is a no-brainer.

Bottom line:

Get out of foegle/kulak deals into next season.

Neither of these guys are terrible hickey players but neither of them significantly moves dial.

Next year it’s still a cap crunch and its ideal year to really go for it.

Kulak 2.75
Foegle 2.75
Puj 3.0
Ryan 1.25
Janmark 1.25
Klef 4.2
Smith 2.2
Lucic/sek 2.2

That’s 19.6 million

RFA’s needing reup

Bouchard 975k to 3 million Bridge?
Klim 750k to 2.25 million x 3?
McLeod 800k to 1.5 million x 3?

At least 4.5 million to resign with raises.

15.6 million left

Hyman McDavid xxx
Kane drai yam
Klim rnh xxx
Holloway McLeod xxx

Let’s say 3 million for 3rd/4th line RW

12.6 million left

Nurse ceci
Broberg Bouchard
Niem barrie

Des

Now ltir overinflates what’s left as there is no excuse to be in it.

So 6.3 million open cap…to sign top 6 RW and change defensive composition…the 2.5+ million replacing what kulak and feogle actually bring with cheaper options is huge next season.

Last edited 1 year ago by maudite
Harpers Hair

Bruins with a 6-0 win over Philly…goal differential now +72.

Oh my.

RandyRanderson

Proving updates on other teams isn’t as valuable to this forum as you seem to think it is… especially when you cherry pick isolated facts it comes across as if you are throwing stones rather than engaging in conversation.

i know you can do better, I keep hoping you do because we would all benefit

Solly

Vancouver Canucks with a SO win over Carolina yesterday…goal differential now -23.

And that’s with top-5 talent Quinn Hughes and elite goaltender Thatcher Demko healthy and on the roster.

But soon-to-be-departed Captain Bo Horvat…

Ohhhhh my.

DevilsLettuce

Doing anything you can to distance yourself from the mighty Canucks lol

Yegfoundation

How’s about your Canucks!? Stanley again this season, Mr Hair?! Don’t be angry….

dynamicdylancoach

On the theme of nuts and scottish purple conkers.

Did you know? ……
On finding your first conker of the season, you should say:

” Oddly oddly onker my first conker”. This ensures good fortune and few tangles throughout the coming season.
The game of conkers is known as ‘Kingers‘ in some parts of the world.

That’s nuts ..right Kinger?!

From Project Britain
http://projectbritain.com/conkers.html

Last edited 1 year ago by dynamicdylancoach
Munny 2.0

I recommend the Chaulk segment on ON today.

godot10

The TL:DR…er …TL:DL please.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Fortune cookie version?

Side

I can give you the magic 8 ball version:

Ask Again Later

John Chambers

Offence from the D

Tyson Barrie made a terrific pass to spring Janmark for the 1-0 goal on Friday. As much as Barrie doesn’t suit the role of shut-down defender, his offensive contributions have been key to the Oilers, at even-strength and especially on the PP, over the last 2.5 seasons.

Unless he’s being replaced by an equally talented offensive producer from the back-end, the Oilers make themselves worse by trading away Barrie. It won’t happen.

Scrolling down the point totals for Oilers D, Darnell Nurse offers some offence, but I wouldn’t label him as an offensive defenseman. Offense is of course Evan Bouchard’s calling card, but he’s young and struggling to find his offense. When he does find it (and I’m fairly sure he will again soon), it will be of immense value to the Oilers.

The other defensemen – Ceci, Kulak, Desharnais, and Broberg – offer little in the way of offense. Perhaps that changes with the young D, but the veterans are who they are.

It’s not a sin for a defenseman to be shy offensively. It’s just that if you’re also lousy defensively then you don’t have a useful toolset that contributes to winning in the NHL.

Which brings me to Brett Kulak. At this point of the season I’d go so far as to say he’s the Oilers’ weak link. The RHD all offer some form of shut-down ability (Ceci & Desharnais), offence (Barrie and Bouch), while Nurse and Broberg appear atm to be big-bodied, defensively responsible anchors on the left side. Kulak ranks lowest among all Oilers D in terms of offense generated as well as defense suppressed. He is not Kris Russell in the defensive end.

I’d like to see Kulak upgraded for the Oilers to make a push. Chyckrun seems like a perfect fit to drive the second-pair while Broberg’s game continues to evolve. However if the cost is too high I see value in upgrading Kulak to Gostisbehere, or someone who at least provides similar defensive attributes, but is more of a weapon offensively.

The Oilers have a few useful offensively-talented D. It’s not a reason IMO to not pursue another.

hopeoil

Gostisbehere’s defensive game is not his calling card. He’s another smaller, offensive minded defensemen.

John Chambers

The point of my above post is to convey that the Oilers can still make use of another offensive-minded defenseman. He is a much better all-around player than Brett Kulak.

Ryan

I’ve been banging on the ghost drum here since he was traded to Arizona.

Seravali’s scouting has the ghost as a slow bottom pairing defender.

He’s playing 22 and a half all situations and 18 and a quarter at 5v5.

I rate his skating higher than Seravelli.

His 5v5 minutes would be second to Nurse on the Oilers.

Now, I’m a firm believer in what we’ll call the “Duncan Keith effect” in the boost from taking a d from a bad team, slotting him down the depth chart behind a better d (Nurse), and reducing their minutes.

I agree that Ghost would be a nice anchor for the second pairing.

The questions are whether he makes Barrie redundant and how the pairings mesh in terms of whether there are enough big d types.

dkochan

In regards to offensive defenseman, one who has frequently frustrated or perplexed me so far has been Evan Bouchard. There is little doubt that Evan Bouchard has significant offensive upside to his game given his shot, passing, offensive IQ and smarts, etc. However, the defensive “leakage” or lapses within Evan’s game has left me yelling at my TV all too many times over the first half of the season. Darnell Nurse has also often been a part of this “defensive lapse’s group” throughout the first half of the season, although Darnell has thankfully picked up the defensive part of his game over the last while. I really hope that the defensive side of Evan’s game gets shored up throughout the second half so that the offensive side of Evan’s game gets to shine through without the frequent defensive miscues detracting from his overall game. Here’s to hoping!!

ArmchairGM

Gustav Forsling? He has another year left after this one at a very team-friendly AAV. No idea if he’s available or not, but the extra year means Holland would be willing to move the 1st and since Florida doesn’t have a 1st this year or next that might interes them.

Ryan

First, I would be remiss if I did not remind everyone that Forsling is actually a 5th round draft pick from the Vancouver Canucks.

Pretty funny that they traded him for Adam Clendening. ouch.

The trade was one-for-one.

Yeah, Forsling would be a huge addition. I can’t imagine why Florida would trade him though after losing Weegar.

Last edited 1 year ago by Ryan
jp

Forsling would definitely be worth moving the 1st for. He’s a huge value deal for Florida though, and as Ryan says it’s hard to imagine them moving him.

jp

Kulak ranks lowest among all Oilers D in terms of offense generated as well as defense suppressed.

You forgot about Ceci, he’s produced zero 5v5 offense this year after having a nice 1st year with the Oil (0.92 p/60 to 0.40 this year). Not quite sure where the lowest in defense suppressed is coming from either.

FWIW, Kulak’s 0.85 p/60 this season is about average for the league, it just looks light because of the other producers on the team.

He also scored 1.32 p/60 after the deadline and 1.29 p/60 in the playoffs last year. If you put it together, he’s scored 1.04 p/60 at 5v5 in his 79 career games as an Oiler (that would put him around top 25% in the league this season).

I think Redbird also mentioned earlier in the thread the Kulak-Barrie pairing has a 62% goal share between last season, playoffs and this year.

So yeah, a defense of Kulak, haha.

I actually agree with you 95%. Kulak hasn’t been a great 2LD this year, though I think he’s a pretty decent player. And I do think another Dman should be added to help out the left side.

Agree Gost would be a nice addition, and might well play ahead of Kulak. I just think Kulak is most likely also going to play ahead of Broberg once it gets to crunch time. And I like Kulak and Broberg both enough that I hope they are the 2/3 LD next season, in whatever order.

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
Munny 2.0

1) Derek Ryan is going nowhere. No sane coach is going to give up his only RHS FO man. With Pujo allegedly heading out the door and Yamo’s injury issues, RH shots are not being waived down to the minors.

2) Tyson Barrie is going nowhere. He’s the best PP Dman I’ve seen in the past decade or so. No one in this league is better at distributing the puck with smarts, speed and accuracy. Redundancy at skill positions is what you want going into the post-season. Because injury. If Barrie is moved, that’s an off-season move (and highly likely at that time).

3) Given what we know right now (and things may have changed behind-the-scenes, but I doubt it), Pujo will walk at the end of the season for nothing. So he will be traded by Holland regardless. We should be thinking about how best to maximize that situation.

==========

I made the call on Philp in TC, but he needs to take a bit of a step forward here before I think the Oil consider giving him a cup of Joe. Not to mention cap issues prevents the org from test driving without there being an injury… and no one wants that. I’m hoping now for good second half splits and a player who might be able to seize the 4C spot next camp.

He’ll likely be a playoff Black Ace in the meantime.

Munny 2.0

Not to mention a poorer team with cap space would pluck Ryan off waivers just to trade him for a free pick at the deadline.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Bang on. Especially point (2).

Reja

Would love to see Hathaway in Oilers silks especially against Calgary. Hathaway and Kane wouldn’t allow what seems to be the L.A strategy of mugging Leon and Connor to happen. We have a team full of passive aggressive players. Yama J.P. Foegele with their stone hands need to be shuttled to the airport with their 9 million salary and replaced with some edge and more compete for way less money.

hopeoil

Draisaitl got injured in the playoffs against LA with Kane on the team.

Reja

What did Kane to the sneaky Kadri? Kadri is scared shitless of Kane and he should be because Kane’s not finished with his ass yet.

hopeoil

Why didn’t Kane prevent that injury though? That seems to be your logic here. Why didn’t he?

Scungilli Slushy

Maintaining a high level of pushback is a cumulative effect

Nothing is perfect, doing not enough is far worse

Ryan

“The nut” is an old timey phrase that comes down from old England, and all our little old ancestors (I’m sorry, watched My Cousin Vinny this weekend). It means either “the amount of money that must be earned in order to break even” or “a hard problem or undertaking” and in this case, both apply.

Maybe it’s just me, but the first thing I associate with this is that scene in Step Brothers about the Catalina Wine mixer.

Archetype

For me, it’s “There’s Something About Mary” and the zipper incident.

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Me too

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

LOL yes.

jp

So what have Woodcroft and Manson done to help the Edmonton Oilers?

Things went smashingly after the hires last season in many different ways. Results have been decidedly less spectacular this season, though not entirely terrible.

With some calling him Jay Evens, the biggest change after the coaching change last year was the Oilers even strength performance, which as we all know had struggled consistently since 16-17 (and before), even with the Oilers being a playoff team for the last few years.

So focusing on even strength (actually 5v5), and numbers we have access to, can we pinpoint what’s different? And is it still different, or has it gone away this season?

Oilers 5v5 GF%
18-19 45.1 (McLellan and Hitchcock)
19-20 47.3 (Tippett hired)
20-21 49.8
21-22 46.8 (Tippett)
21-22 56.0 (Woodcroft hired)
22-23 50.5

Oilers 5v5 SF%
18-19 47.6
19-20 48.3
20-21 48.5
21-22 50.1 (Tippett)
21-22 52.7 (Woodcroft)
22-23 50.1

Oilers 5v5 SCF%
18-19 47.8
19-20 47.7
20-21 47.8
21-22 50.0 (Tippett)
21-22 50.6 (Woodcroft)
22-23 51.3

Oilers 5v5 HDCF%
18-19 46.5
19-20 49.6
20-21 49.8
21-22 48.7(Tippett)
21-22 55.8 (Woodcroft)
22-23 53.6

Pretty much everything improved under Woodcroft/Manson, but for me the most striking is the HD scoring chances. The only 2 segments over 50% HDCF are the most recent ones, and the number remain far stronger this season than at any time pre-Woodcraft.

Surprisingly, when you look at the HD chances for/against, the main effect post-Woodcroft has been on the FOR side.

Oilers 5v5 HDCF/60
18-19 10.2
19-20 10.5
20-21 10.0
21-22 10.8 (Tippett)
21-22 13.4 (Woodcroft)
22-23 12.6

Oilers 5v5 HDCA/60
18-19 11.7
19-20 10.7
20-21 10.1
21-22 11.3 (Tippett)
21-22 10.6 (Woodcroft)
22-23 11.0

Anyway, I think that HDCF/HDCF% is the closest thing we have to a signature for what Woodcroft and Manson have done as Oilers coaches.

hopeoil

Excellent breakdown, thanks for doing this!

winchester

I love it when you pull the numbers

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

Great post.

Gerta Rauss

Nedeljkovic and his $3M cap hit clears waivers

dustrock

Thought in today’s NHL “the Vig” would be the better title 😉

Munny 2.0

Niemo has been sent down.

DevilsLettuce

@GenePrincipe
·
38m

Baby boy named Beau and seven pounds four ounces(74) born in January 14. Chloe and baby are doing great. Congratulations to @EdmontonOilers
Stuart Skinner

Munny 2.0

One day after Connor’s Bday, and shares the date with little ole me!

GB&Q

who the heck is downvoting a baby?

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

My theory: a few posters have programmed bots to downvote every HH post.

Side

My theory: HH owns the bots cause he loves playing the victim.

Harpers Hair

comment image
Edmonton Oilers

@EdmontonOilers
·
1m

Baby Skinner is here! Chloe & Stuart welcomed a healthy baby boy, Beau on Saturday weighing 7lbs & 4oz https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f499.svghttps://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f90e.svg

Cape Breton Oilers 4EVR

Is some version of a Barrie/JP for Dumba deal possible. I’d like Kulak as 2LD much better with Dumba or Ceci flanking him. Then have the kids on third pair.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

We’d need to send both to make it fit under the cap, then there’s the question of what Guerin would want for futures and prospects.

Redbird62

Tyson Barrie is having arguably his best season as both an Oiler and pro, in almost every measure except 5 on 5 scoring. That his 5 on 5 scoring is down can in part be attributed to him playing a higher percentage of his TOI, without McDavid, Draisaitland or Nuge compared to his 3 prior seasons here.

Kulak/Barrie was an effective duo since last season including the playoffs and continue to be this season. Overall as a pair including regular season and playoffs they have a goal share of ~62% (it is roughly 62% both in the regular season games and the playoffs).

Nothing about Matt Dumba’s performance over the last 3 seasons says he is an upgrade on Barrie.

Last edited 1 year ago by Redbird62
MushedPeas

Agreed.

Archetype

I think you highlight the dilemma I’ve been thinking about recently.

Nurse is a critical, all-situations defender. Overpaid, but he’s not going anywhere.
Ceci is treading water on the top pair, however he’s a value contract.
Barrie is having a fine year.
Kulak is cost-effective and holding his own with Barrie on the second pair, producing decent results.
Bouchard & Broberg are showing promise together.

At the same time, the D-core doesn’t scream “contender” does it? Who leaves to upgrade the back end, and who is even available that would be considered an upgrade, especially with the cap troubles?

Dee Dee

Contenders aren’t contenders until it is realized that the team is contending, then they are automatically designated as contenders.

godot10

Broberg and Bouchard will be getting the easy minutes that Kulak and Barrie got in the playoffs and regular season last year. The Oilers need a 2nd pairing that can be reliable defensively in any type of minutes. That is not Kulak-Barrie.

Tye

Dumba is a bad target IMO, smallish D, kinda soft, has barely played more then half the games each season since 17-18 & is one of the drama queens of the NHL.

You’d be better off with Soucy, who misses just as many games but is much bigger, more of a defensive D-man & sticks to playing hockey.

hopeoil

Matt Dumba being a drama queen? How is he a drama queen? For taking a knee? Pretty thinly veiled racism, It’s 2023, don’t be a dumb hillbilly. Do better.

Calling him soft is laughable. Tell me you’ve never watched him play? Easily one of the worst analysis of a player I’ve read on this blog. He squared up with Brady Tkachuk, 10 or so fights in his career. He absolutely hammers guys in open ice too.

He might not be the right fit in Edmonton but there’s no need to make up lies just because he opposes police brutality.

Harpers Hair

CapFriendly

@CapFriendly

Matt Boldy
$7M x 7 year extension

Breakdown:
23-24: $8M
24-25: $9.7M
25-26: $7.7M
26-27: $6M
27-28: $5.96M
28-29: $5.82M*
29-30: $5.82M*

*M-NTC in final two years: 10 team no-trade list

AMD

That’s the player I wanted Oilers to take in the draft

Harpers Hair

Given his progression and a rising cap soon…$7 million promises to be one helluva bargain down the road.

jp

Given his progression and a rising cap soon…$7 million promises to be one helluva bargain down the road.

What progression are you seeing?

He’s scored 10 less points in 5 less games this year, and his +/- has gone from +17 to 0.

Harpers Hair

He’s on pace for close to 25 goals and 60 points.

Not bad for a 21 year old on the NCAA development path.

How is Dylan Holloway doing on the same path at the same age?

jp

You’ll note that no one has anointed Dylan Holloway’s $7M x 7 deal “one helluva bargain”.

Harpers Hair

You’ll note that if Holloway was anywhere near as productive as Boldy there would be many here calling for Holland to lock him up long term.
It wasn’t that long ago they wanted Jesse extended long term.

godot10

Broberg is looking like a sure all tool #3D in a year or two. Far more valuable than any forward on the board when Holland was drafting.

Crazy Pedestrian

do any teams have I.O.Us (Future considerations) for the Oilers? Wouldn’t this be the perfect time to cash in?

Tarkus
Redbird62

Not sure all the rules concerning future considerations, but the Oilers traded Stalock to San Jose for futures last March and in the summer of 2021, they traded Dylan Wells to Carolina for futures. Who knows if the subsequent settlement involving Kane, San Jose and Edmonton took the Stalock future consideration into account. Similarly, 2 weeks after the Wells trade, the Oilers sent Bear to the Hurricane for Foegele. Capfriendly does not seem to keep tabs on whether futures have been cashed in.

jp

I assumed they were essentially code for ‘nothing in return’. Instead of trading a player for $1, as was sometimes done in the past.

They usually accompany trades that teams wouldn’t even pay a 7th round pick to make (Wells, Stalock), don’t they?

dulock

“Consideration” is a legal term for “something of value” The value doesn’t have to be high so it could be a dollar or a bucket of pucks but the NHL no longer allows trades for money. These deals are usually of the variety of “if Dylan Wells plays 50 NHL games in the 2021-22 season, Carolina must give Edmonton the option of switching 2024 7th round picks” and are usually written in a way that the consideration is not something that ever ends up being paid. Since consideration can be literally anything, it would be unusual for it to be anything of value and is essentially nothing but not quite nothing.

MushedPeas

Same thought.

Durag

@Bob_Stauffer

·

19m

Draisaitl-McDavid-Hyman

Kostin-RNH-Janmark

Kane-McLeod-Foegele

Holloway-Ryan-Puljujarvi

Shore and Yamamoto not on the ice

Kane on a regular line at practice – doe he play the next game??

I’m guessing Shore gets waived and Yamo goes LTIR to fit Kane in?

Redbird62

Nothing from the Oilers camp has suggested that Yamamoto’s absence was likely to be long term. He has been day to day, with some suggestion it has been an illness rather than an injury issue. If it turns out it is a recurrence of the concussion issues he has had since last playoffs, then maybe, but that would be extremely unfortunate for him and the team.

Last edited 1 year ago by Redbird62
Justthestatsman

An illness is what I had heard someone on the HNIC broadcast say on Saturday.

However, the Oilers have been seemingly over-the-top in withholding their player’s status this year. I seem to recall one instance when a player was deemed to be a game-time decision, only to miss several games with an injury. The actual fact seems to be quite removed from what they originally shared.

rich tm

You may be correct, but I thought Stauffer said Saturday night that Yamo was “banged up” a little. Hope that’s not correct, but if they had to move him to LTIR, that buys you thru the All-Star break before any final decisions have to be made.

innercitysmytty

Stauffer said today again that he’s banged up. Said upper body and may be neck or concussion but he wasn’t sure.

Justthestatsman

Yikes, a concussion would be bad news for all concerned.

I don’t know that it’s ever been reported officially that he has had a concussion in the past but it seems like he’s had this type of thing happen two or three times this year. For his sake, I hope this isn’t the case.

cowboy bill

Nice.

jp

I guess that means Kane was cleared 🙂

Sure will be nice to have him back, whatever move accompanies it.

FabioRoberto

Liking those lines!

winchester

The Nut reminds me of Conkers from Scotland. You put a chestnut on a string and had to conk the others guys nut with intention of cracking it.

Bill

I think I’ll greet my brothers with that little gem next time I see them, except I’ll aim to crack a walnut/chestnut on their melons.

Last edited 1 year ago by Bill
meanashell11

I played conkers in Scotland……

kgo

I think we see foegele on waivers.

DevilsLettuce

That’s my guess

cowboy bill

No need for that.

innercitysmytty

Yeah I don’t think so either. Likely Yamo on LTIR until after the all-star break.

winchester

If Holland wanted to buy some time, he might consider Leon on LTIR when Kane is ready.
Is this even feasible? don’t know and of course impossible to know what shape Leon is in.

Remember when Calgary was running our top players and it was haha, we got the two points? Leon is still playing injured. What is the true cost of these infractions?

What I have liked lately is what has looked like a little more team unity, and a B-day party in Vegas assists with that.

Last edited 1 year ago by winchester
Gerta Rauss

Designating a player to LTIR makes him unavailable for 10 games or 24 days, so it’s a big decision

You can retroactively assign the player to the date of injury, but it’s still a decision that has roster ramifications

winchester

And can Kane make up for the loss of Leons contributions with playoffs in jeopardy?

So pretty unlikely but dam, id like him to be healthy post season.

Gerta Rauss

Yeah, I’m not sure

Leon doesn’t look 100%, perhaps a little load management with an occasional game off is the path forward

That doesn’t solve the cap crunch but that’s another nut to crack, as it were

Redbird62

The management and the player can’t just decide to put a player on LTIR. There has to be a medical reason verified by the team’s doctors. The league can investigate if they don’t believe the player will be unfit to play for at 24 days and 10 games. Considering Draisaitl’s performance in the last game, if he were to suddenly go on LTIR the day Kane is activated, the league would likely have their doctors review the circumstances.

FabioRoberto

Leon should take the all star break off.

Diablo

I doubt Washington would be remotely interested in the deal you’re spitballing there LT. They have playoff aspirations of their own … they’re not trading Jenson or Hathaway.

They have to move out one or both of Jesse and/or Foegele to get cap compliant. Don’t expect much in return. Since the season started both Janmark and Kostin have replaced these two wingers, and both JP and Foggy are now on the forth line. At this point, the cap space is more valuable than any nominal asset we get back, and should be viewed as such.

W

Using draft choice logic, Foggy stays because it was Hollands trade.

Diablo

Holland has shown a willingness to move on from players that didn’t work out. If they can or need to move on from Foggy, I have no doubt that they will. He’s been passed by multiple players on the roster since he was acquired.

cowboy bill

Gotta say, LT if Holland could pull off a trade like that with Washington, that would be amazing, and I would be all for it. But I’m going to suggest he doesn’t necessarily need to. In more Holland fashion he may not do much at all. I’m confident he will call in a favor to some GM who will take a $3M contract off his hands for a reasonable draft pick which will solve many problems and that will be huge. Like you LT, I’m feeling this defense, with the simple addition of Desharnais could hold water, Niemelianen will also be available, and those eight men may prove satisfactory. Additionally, there are a couple more names on the farm that could have the same effect with the forward group, one is Noah Philp and the other that is less popular with a lot of you, is Justin Bailey. It’s not overly sexy and I’m not absolutely positive this roster fits under the cap, i will check if it allows for a 23-man roster. Not as good as yours, but here it is.

Kane-McDavid-Yamamoto
Holloway-Leon-Hyman
Janmark-Nuge-Kostin
Foegele-MacLeod-Ryan
Philp-Bailey

Nurse-Ceci
Broberg-Bouchard
Kulak-Barrie
Desharnais

Skinner & Campbell

I know most of you will hate this. But it might be realistic.

SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!

Barrie is part of a bigger project about keeping players in Edmonton long term. Young fella, with a family, tight with other players who have young families (Hyman, Stu, Kulak, Nurse, Kane). Building something there they are.

The Oilers are still a developing team. They aren’t fully developed, even if the contention window is now open. There are way too many question marks on players you spent years watching, evaluating and developing to cut loose now. The ceilings on some are way too high production wise and can be cost controlled with already signed vets and the fact that other teams fade Oilers youngins hard.

Even if you’re of the belief that Leon and McD walk its doubly odd to cast away players who could play prominent roles on whatever version of the team we see after that.

Holland can’t and won’t leave the whole damn thing bare.

IMO nothing much will happen until the deadline, not with the schedule coming up. Way too much of an opportunity to get everyone rolling, way too much opportunity to iron out wrinkles, roll lines and conserve energy.

Oilers are a 2nd half team about to add a 30 goal scorer and maybe, finally, hopefully, run a two headed goalie tandem keeping everyone fresh.

As Leon said “don’t worry, its coming.”

winchester

I would not hate it but rather love it – if it was enough. There is a lot of risk here.

The pain would come if they ran short in the playoffs and we are left wondering “what if” we just beefed up the back end a little bit, or got a little more finnish for Leon….

cowboy bill

According to my calculation that roster is $179,167.00 under the cap without using the LTIR of Klefbom & Smiddy which comes to $6,367,000. So, I believe it’s tight but it works.

cowboy bill

Well there’s still the trade deadline.
It could set things up nicely.

Last edited 1 year ago by cowboy bill
Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

I do not hate the trade, but realistically, there is no chance Holland makes this type of deal mid-season. Specifically Barrie. He is well-liked. Contributes to the PP. Holland will not create a major disruption mid-season.

Brantford Boy

After clearing $7.5M I was hoping for sexier name than Nick Jensen. Although if you squint he kinda looks a little like Larsson.
https://www.nhl.com/player/nick-jensen-8475324

Barrie is having a pretty solid year, I would hope for a better return. Giving Bouchard the keys to the PP Coupe is most likely inevitable, but having Barrie’s experience for the remainder of this season seems like a good idea.

flea

The Oilers better sign Bouchard before they trade Barrie, or else they are giving him and his agent all the leverage on these contract negotiations.

knighttown

Moving Tyson Barrie to another team for an asset or group of assets is what’s know in the NHL and in sport as a “trade”. You’ll find that it’s quite common and that teams aren’t black listed for doing it.

I worry what will happen when you hear about waivers.

knighttown

Well shit, that was supposed to be in response to Elgin. Aren’t I the dummy.

Shamus23

Interesting you traded Barrie. His house is up for Sale .( Thinking he is buying a house closer to Drai and Connor in Laurier Heights). But still interesting

Coilers2021

Maybe Holland already told him to expect a trade out of town.

Bad Seed

That is not his house. He is renting it. It has been for sale for awhile. He only moved in there this fall.

Ekholmsbeard. Formerly brobergstan

is there a link?

barry.moore23

Below the fold,

LT you are one in a million and we are so lucky to share this time. Thanks for everything.

Elgin R

Edmonton has a few things going forward to attract free agents – Connor and Connor. Weather is not great compared to other NHL cities and taxes are above average. Getting Barrie to sign an extension with the Oilers was seen as a win – the PP has been good to great since he has been an Oiler. Now you suggest trading a player 1/2 way through his contract extension! If this is done, good luck getting other players to sign with the Oil.

Do like getting rid of JP – would also like to see Foegle go away.

Coilers2021

Edmonton will always have that hurdle to jump over in terms of competing with other teams to sign players. In a cap world, players realize that this is a business and trades have always been an element of the business, so I don’t think it would affect the team’s ability to sign future players.

If the team is winning, players will want to sign in Edmonton. If they’re not, then the opposite.

MushedPeas

Barrie may be key or contributory to the PP’s current domination, but I have to take issue with that dominance being linked to Barrie’s arrival – it was a juggernaut with Klef as quarterback as well. Maybe not to the tune of pushing 30% or 31%, but it was A+ and Klef didn’t have the benefit of peak McD or man strength Nuge.

Anyways thought I’d comment b/c this is the 2nd or 3rd time I’ve seen Barrie credited, in passing, with the emergence of the Oilers’ power play. Tho I realize that may not have been the intent.

Redbird62

The Power play scored at a very similar rate with Klefbom at the point as with Barrie. ~12 g/60 and ~30% efficiency with both.

One difference that might surprise many on here however, is that the PP gave up shorthanded goals at more than twice the rate with Klefbom manning the point. The opposition scored 9 shorties with Klefbom on in only 61 games for a rate of almost 2.4 per 60. With Barrie back there, they have given up 10 in 174 games, at a rate of 1.08 per 60.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Interesting wrinkle. I wonder if that has anything to do with LH vs RH, or is a testament to Barrie’s renowned ability to keep the puck in at the line.

Redbird62

Klefbom gave the puck away on the PP at almost twice the rate of Barrie (1.6/60 to .9/60) and also had his shots blocked at almost twice the rate (2.4/60 vs. 1.3/60). And their shot rate is about the same. These types of events can lead to jail breaks the other direction.

jp

The Power play scored at a very similar rate with Klefbom at the point as with Barrie. ~12 g/60 and ~30% efficiency with both.

That doesn’t really hold up if you take a bit longer view (ie – not just that one year Klefbom had great results).

The last 3 years Klefbom played, 5v4 PP rates with or without him (McDavid+Draisaitl on):
With Klefbom 9.36GF-1.07GA
W/out Klefbom 9.28GF-0.53GA

Klefbom played about 2/3 of the McDavid-Draisaitl PP minutes those 3 seasons, and when taking into account GA, actually had worse results than whoever else played there (I assume mostly Nurse, though I didn’t check).

The past 3 years, with or without Barrie:
With Barrie 12.21GF-1.10GA
W/out Barrie 10.36GF-0.32GA

Barrie has played over 70% of the PP1 minutes since he arrived. The raw PP results are better in Barrie vs. Klefbom’s respective 3-year samples (though that is surely not only about Barrie/Klefbom).

More importantly, the delta with/without Klefbom (vs. Nurse mostly) compared to with/without Barrie, I think shows clearly that Barrie is having a larger positive effect on the PP than Klefbom was.

Anyway, I believe we agree in our overall conclusions.

MushedPeas

Thanks all for chiming in. I’m always too lazy to dig at the numbers, and consequently am not practiced at summoning them with ease.

Redbird62

Gulultzan didn’t arrive as an assistant coach until 2018, and he is the one who moved Nuge onto the top unit with McDavid and Draisaitl. The PP jumped from 14% to 21% his first season running it up to 29.5% in the second season. So at a minimum I would not use 17-18 to compare Klefbom’s PP performance. It is interesting the Glen has survived through McLellan, Hitchcock, Tippett and now Woodcroft.

jp

Yes, good point about Gulutzan and Nuge on PP1.

It looks like the PP1 Klefbom WOWYs hold up if you remove 17-18 (worse with Klefbom than without him).

MushedPeas

Spot duty by Nurse? I kid.

innercitysmytty

I like your trade suggestion for a move with Washington a lot. Not sure why Washington trades Jensen though if he is playing that well against elites, other than they may like Jesse or want a D like Barrie with a bit of term.

Shamus23

Gudas is a mean SOB. He would be interesting and definitely meaner than any D man we have for sure

TheGreatBigMac

One of the caps, isles, or pens are not going to the playoffs. If it’s the caps, they could be sellers and weirdly their entire d-core are expiring ufa’s this year.

innercitysmytty

Yeah that’s true.

Redbird62

More importantly though is will any of them be out of the hunt by the deadline? It’s very tight right now with less than 7 weeks to the deadline. I doubt that any of them would be sellers if they still believe at the beginning of March that they have a chance to make the playoffs.

Last edited 1 year ago by Redbird62
innercitysmytty

I’d go with the same roster you did when Kane is back. The only move that hurts a bit is Derek Ryan being sent down, as he’s been generally effective. I suspect Yamo’s injury may be nagging enough to kick the decision down the road a little bit anyway.

Shamus23

I wouldn’t send Ryan anywhere. This would be a discussion that Woodcroft would probably ask for Foegle to be put on waivers over Ryan. The coach loves Ryan over Foegle I am thinking

rich tm

I wouldn’t send Ryan anywhere as well, but if you waive Foegle, you really diminish him as a trade chip. That said, he stands a much better chance of clearing (versus say a Tolvanen) because of his contract.

That could be the play.

innercitysmytty

I’m not a fan of sending Ryan down either but from an asset management standpoint, if there is no trade in the hopper, I’d rather do that than send Foegele or Jesse down. And Janmark is going nowhere the way he is playing.

innercitysmytty

I’m surprised you have the Oilers going 0-1-1 in the two home games this week. I get the Oilers have been playing poorly at home and Seattle is on an unsustainable heater, but at the time you put out your monthly prediction those things would not have been known. Both Seattle and Tampa play the night before on the west coast and then fly here for the game, so I think 1-1 is reasonable and there is hope for better than that.

Litke 94

Not only that, but the fact that their last game was in Vegas on Connor’s birthday weekend. Safe to assume the boys #gotinone and that usually leads to a sluggish game back as well.

IIRC, last year when the team started off 5-0, we suffered our first loss of the season in a sloppy affair, at home, against the Flyers. The game before of course was in Vegas. Just sayin’!

innercitysmytty

I agree with the first point when it comes to eastern, but I haven’t noticed the same pattern on short west coast trips. I could easily be wrong on that though. Agree Tampa is a tough out, but being at home and them playing in Vancouver the night before I believe gives us a slight edge.

Louis Levasseur

With respect to the Cap, does sports gambling factor into it? I ask, because it seems to be all the rage, at least if the focus that SportsNet gives it is any indication. I would have thought that if sports gambling is part of hockey related revenue, the Cap would be rapidly rising.

innercitysmytty

I don’t believe that any gaming revenues would go to the teams. Advertising is where the league and teams would be making their revenues. Speaking with someone from our other local pro sports team, advertising $$ from gaming companies is not insignificant, but I’m not sure if it’s enough at this point to put a large dent in the hole caused by the pandemic.