Do you remember this day? Do you know what inspired the “How Oilers Benefit” conversation? Of course you do. In the long history of the Edmonton Oilers, the day the 2015 lottery landed on the oil drop will live in infamy. As we meander toward the end of Connor McDavid’s second contract, it’s clear this team has both tremendous gifts and significant issues. Can the general manager find a fix? Can the coach find a way with the talent on the roster? This team is frustrating, but the most dangerous thing in the world is to overreact.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Revisiting Oilers’ choice of Philip Broberg at the 2019 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Oilers have an emerging prospect in Noah Philp
- Lowetide: Oilers centre Ryan McLeod’s comparables and career trajectory
- DNB: The Ben Stelter Fund is a legacy his family, Connor McDavid and the Oilers will proudly carry
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers’ 7-11 alignment here to stay?
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ asset cost in an Erik Karlsson trade and why it’s worth it
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ interest in trading for Sharks’ Erik Karlsson
- Lowetide: Will Oilers prospect Phil Kemp have an NHL career?
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid’s top Oilers linemates and what it could mean for trade plans
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers GM Ken Holland NHL trade deadline Q&A
- Lowetide: How the Oilers finally found the key to five-on-five outscoring
- DNB: With Kailer Yamamoto nearing a return, which Oilers could be salary-cap casualties?
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie turns a corner, now NHL-ready
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers are about to start a major makeover at right wing
- Lowetide: Is Edmonton Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft saving another season?
- DNB: Why Ryan Nugent-Hopkins matters more to the Oilers now than ever before
- DNB: Are the Oilers actually good again or are they simply benefitting from an easy schedule?
- Lowetide: 3 trades that could help the Oilers this season and beyond
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
WHAT TO EXPECT IN FEBRUARY
- On the road to: DET, PHI, OTT, MTL (Expected 3-1-0) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: DET, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 0-0-2)
- On the road to: COL (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-0-1)
- At home to: PHI (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- On the road to: PIT, CBJ (Expected 1-0-1) (Actual 0-0-0)
- At home to: BOS (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-0-0)
- February expected result: 6-3-2, 14 points in 11 games
- February actual result: 2-1-4, 8 points in seven games
- January actual result: 8-2-2, 18 points in 12 games
- December results: 7-6-2, 16 points in 15 games
- November results: 7-7-0, 14 points in 14 games
- October results: 6-3-0, 12 points in 9 games
- Oilers in 2022-23: 30-19-8, 68 points in 57 games
I predicted the Oilers to go 4-2-1 to start this month, the team in fact owns a 2-1-4 record. My prediction was nine points after seven games, the team has eight points instead. That’s pretty close, but the overall mood of fans is angry. Why? Well, this division is there for the taking and the club is burning daylight.
Should you be concerned? I don’t think so. Edmonton has enjoyed just one good month this season (January) and the rest have been running in place. Consider the points-per-game by month. October 1.33; November 1.00; December 1.07; January 1.5; February 1.14. The team is dull, the indifference is obvious and the entire entourage looks like they’re waiting around for the playoffs to begin so they can play games that matter.
Coach Jay Woodcroft finally got upset in a post-game avail yesterday in Denver, I think that’s a good sign. Maybe he’ll make some tweaks worth doing, like running Jesse Puljujarvi and Evan Bouchard in more prominent roles. All is not lost, it’s just that it’s so far from mattering.
The Oilers have some very good things now, and the great things, the impact things, are at a low ebb. Here, let me show you. Here’s the five-on-five goal share by line, using the team’s centers as proxy.
- Connor McDavid 25-26 (49 pct)
- Leon Draisaitl 21-28 (43 pct)
- 97 and 29 25-22 (53 pct)
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 23-15 (61 pct)
- Ryan McLeod 20-17 (54 pct)
- Derek Ryan 10-6 (63 pct)
- The rest 2-3 (40 pct))
- Total 126-117 (52 pct) No. 14 NHL
I think people are missing the jewel in this year’s story. The thing to fix is the thing that fixes itself. The third line, the fourth line, the things that always rattle, hum and then catch on fire, those things are over 50 percent goal share. I’d bet on McDavid and Draisaitl to the moon and back. They’ll come around, and when they do, music!
They’ll find their way. Honest. Need some stops. Healthy roster. Some deadline help, nothing earth shattering unless it’s actually earth shattering.
SUMMARY
- Warren Foegele took two early penalties but scored two goals right away so the hanging judge went back to bed. He had three shots, three HDSC and has scored 5-2-7 with 34 shots in 10 games.
- Ryan McLeod made a great pass to Janmark on the first Foegele goal, and played a solid game to my eye. I think he’s figured out the NHL game to the point where he uses his speed effectively. He has scored 7-3-10 in his more recent 18 games.
- Mattias Janmark went 1-1-2, two shots, he was 3-0 goals and 5-0 HDSC. The veteran showed up in good places all over the ice. He is limited as an offensive player, but Edmonton needs more players like him (and Derek Ryan).
- Devin Shore made a dandy play on the Tyson Barrie goal, calmed the waters, waited for the play to develop and then made a fine pass. He was 10-4 shots and 1-0 goals at five-on-five, won three of five faceoffs.
- Derek Ryan has five goals in his last 12 games and is 9-3 five-on-five goals in his last 12 games. In a world of chaos that is the Oilers over the last while, he is opposite George.
- Jesse Puljujarvi had an assist, two shots, used his speed effectively and was 9-2 shots, 1-0 goals and 3-0 HDSC on the day. He is 3-0 goals and 20-8 shots five-on-five over the last three games. He’s earned a trip up the depth chart.
- Leon Draisaitl had a goal, four shots, 2GV and 1TK, 12-12 faceoffs and a little bump and grind versus Josh Manson that was wildly effective. Has scored 11-9-20 in 15 games, and is 1-5 goals at five-on-five over the last four games. Just two giveaways five-on-five in the last five games, that’s encouraging.
- Connor McDavid had an assist, four shots, two HDSC, TK, won 11 of 23 in the dot. He won the five-on-five shot share (16-12) but his line was outscored 1-3. Was on the ice for 11 minutes versus Nathan MacKinnon, 1-2 goals. He had trouble versus MacKinnon (4-6 goals) last spring, too. Edmonton needs a defensive conscience on the line with 97-Hyman.
- Zach Hyman had one assist, two shots, two HDSC, but had the same tough time while on the ice five-on-five.
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had an assist, two shots, TK, 0-3 on the dot.
- Kailer Yamamoto had a fantastic early chance, three shots, two HDSC, TK. He is coming along after that long layoff. Edmonton needs him to be at his best.
- Darnell Nurse had one assist, five shots, one HDSC, blocked a shot. He was 3-2 goals in a high-event game.
- Cody Ceci had two assists, six hits and three blocked shots. The Oilers were 9-4 HDSC when he was on the ice, but 3-4 goals. This is where I say single events can be massive in a game while also being single events. Made an errant pass off the wall in his own zone, McDavid missed it or let it go, and the Avs gained the zone with fury. That resulted in the JT Compher goal, nice pick play by Sam Girard. The Nichushkin goal went in off Ceci’s skate.
- Brett Kulak took a penalty, had a shot, two hits and three blocked shots. Edmonton was 3-2 goals while he was on the ice, there were no high danger chances while he was on the ice five-on-five.
- Tyson Barrie scored a goal, had three shots and a takeaway. A pretty clean evening at five-on-five.
- Philip Broberg had one shot, one HDSC, blocked a couple of shots. I like his game and he’s being used in more roles (including PK).
- Evan Bouchard had three shots, drew a penalty and had five hits. He was 0-1 goals but 3-0 HDSC on the day at five-on-five.
- Jack Campbell made some great stops but not enough of them. The Compher goal was a deflection, the Nichushkin goal Ceci’s skate scored it. The MacKinnon goal was from range, goalie needs to get a piece of it. The O’Connor goal can’t happen, Campbell needs to have better body control there. Lehkonen goal a fine deflection, no fault there. Rantanen goal Nurse got picked, but Campbell’s movement wasn’t great as he tracked across the ice. Jack Campbell needs to be better. He has allowed 96 goals, a .915SP would have allowed 72 goals. That’s too wide a gap between what is needed and what is being delivered.
CONDORS TOWN
What a night for the young Condors forwards:
- Raphael Lavoie scored four times, now 16-12-28 in 38 games.
- Tyler Tullio scored 3-1-4, now 12-12-24 in 44 games
- Xavier Bourgault went 0-2-2, now 11-13-24 in 49 games.
- Noah Philp posted two more assists, now 11-10-21 in 48 games.
This is good news for the Oilers, trade or development. Lavoie is especially impressive to my eye, but all four of these men are impressive.
Jack and Jacob playing “hold my beer” on who can plumb new lows and only losing by a single goal. A Clash of Titans!
This might be the year Calgary cracks. I’ve got friends on the edge.
San Jose didn’t have Hertl or Meier in the lineup when they beat Seattle 4-0. Embarrassing.
Vegas with a game in hand but they start a stretch here. Hawks laid a good whoopin on the Leafs on Sunday. I take Vegas for CHI but after that it gets trickier.
Oilers four back of the div lead and of the West. Managed a point in 16/19 games in 2023.
So very close. Teams couldn’t pull away. That’s their mistake.
Remember Oilers separation from the the pack starts in early March and picks up steam through the month.
Getting more confident they lock down the Conference when they pickup six against Vegas x2 and AZ at the end of March.
Whoever is in net just needs to be ok. That’s all, nothing special, perfectly mediocre. With Jack, we don’t need him to turn into Sheterkin. He needs to get to 0.905 consistently and that’s it. I believe in him!
Come on over Patty Kane and join the party. It would be so much fun to add one more offensive game breaker. Six twenty five goal scorers! Oh lordly yes please and twice on Tuesdays.
A lot is possible if the desire is there. YMMV but a lot is going out so not impossible. For example:
P Kane 50% retained, McCabe 2M retained for Yamo Kulak Kesselring Petrov Fanti 2025 1st (because they have 2 in the next 2 rounds)
Karlsson 5M retained Reimer 1M retained for Barrie Campbell JP Schaefer 2023 1st 2024 2nd 2025 4th
21 man roster until playoffs 25K space
E Kane CMD P Kane
Nuge Drai Hyman
Janmark McL Foegele
Holloway Ryan Kostin
Nurse Karlsson
McCabe Bouch/Ceci
Bro Ceci/Bouch
Des
Stu / Reimer
2023-2024
Sign a RC and a B6 forward for total 2,5M. P Kane wants to win again signs for around 2M (old paid guy wants to win, the deal others do). Kostin McL at 1.5M each. Ryan 1M. Bouch at 4M long, Reimer 2M, X and X at total 2M:
E Kane CMD P Kane
Nuge Drai Hyman
McLeod Holloway Kostin
Foegele Acciari Ryan
X X
Nurse Karlsson
McCabe Bouch
Bro Ceci
Des
Skinner Reimer
23 man roster 609K space including bonuses
Remaining assets: Everything after 2025, 2024 first 2023 second Lavoie Savoie Bourg Niems Wanner Rodrigue Philp Kemp etc
Well, this presumes the other GMs (and players with trade protection) accept these deals and I don’t think either of those would be accepted.
Its impossible to know if Kyle Davidson would put any material value on any of Yamo Kulak Kesselring Petrov Fanti and its also more likely than not that McCabe does not waive his MTC to come to Edmonton – Edmonton is on his 7-team list, we know that.
Its a massive stretch, in my opinion, to think that the Sharks are gone to move Karlsson for cap reasons, retain on him and then take $4m X4 for Campbell, right?
Did you catch the YMMV? I have no idea what they want. The point is that it’s not JP and Klef’s LTIR for MacKinnon and Makar
A lot of assets were given. Maybe it’s other players. The spend is in the right ‘range’ I think because I read what the other teams spend on these deals. Dubas spent, of significant value, a 1st and a 2nd on O Reilly and Acciari, and spare parts and non impact picks as lubricant. Why can’t Holland?
Dubas spent assets like he knew a door was going to hit him in the ass absent a Cup.
Prospect list pared down, picks pared down.
Dubas’ problem is the yawning age gap on his backend. Babies playing with Vets, several of whom are past their prime.
Yet here he is grabbing more forwards for a lot of Treasure.
He’s built a regular season Goliath but man his blind spots for defense and goalering after all these years is fascinating.
I watched the 3rd period of the Sharks-Kraken game specifically to watch for EK65’s zone exits, something the Oilers could use from their dmen. Was impressed by what I saw and then I dug up this article that shows he leads the league with 5.0 zone exits/20 along with a bunch of other impressive stats. Apologies if this has been posted previously.
https://www.nbcsports.com/bayarea/sharks/erik-karlssons-dominant-season-sharks-explained-nhl-advanced-stats
I have watched a few of the Sharks games this season, and the difference between Karlsson and just about every other defenseman in the league in terms of controlling the play any where on the ice is noticeable.
The article was a good read as well. It includes Sportslogiq data that confirms what people have been seeing this year. Karlsson is back performing like he did when he was at or near the top of the class from 2011-2018. And if he stays healthy, a big if, no reason he can’t for a few more seasons.
He would be a big plus for the Oilers, but on balance will it be enough to offset the several minuses (both short term and long term) required to obtain him?
I wonder what the buy now price is for Karlsson.
Barrie, Bouch, 1st, Jesse for Karlsson @ 9.2M (20% retained)
1st for another team to retain 1.7 x 4 = 6.8M
Oil get Karlsson @ 7.5M
That seems expensive for Oil and decent for other teams but would it be enough to close the deal now? Would you do it?
Maybe the off-season works better, the picks are worth more.
According to Leavins the ask is rumored to be 3 firsts or equivalent with 20% retention max. So another first maybe needed. That’s four firsts for Karlsson which is like an offer sheet for McDavid. Maximum price, yikes that is expensive.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/in-the-edmonton-oilers-eric-karlsson-stakes-remember-it-takes-two-to-tango-9-things
The ask now and the selling price on March 3 may be very different. And holding Karlsson until the summer is a high risk move as you are selling one less playoff run of Karlsson, including the most valuable one (the current one). So lots of pressure on SJ to sell now.
Isles win in Pitt… huge victory that keeps them in the playoff race. Great finish to the game. Onslaught by the Pens but the Isles get an ENer from their own zone with the clock ticking down.
Summarizing!
Petrov scored in an OT loss, while Schaefer (as per Munny 2.0’s intrepid reporting below) was held off the scoresheet. The aforementioned fight was kinda lame too, so I didn’t bother linking it. Ah well.
Per Bruce McCurdy:
The Oilers have scored 4+ goals in every single one of Campbell’s starts in 2023……
The gap in everything with the two goalies in net is really something (full season or since Jan. 1st). It’s like with Mike Smith but even more pronounced.
Seems to be affecting goals scored, but also shots for/against, scoring chances for/against. PP is similar with the two goalies, but the PK is giving up 10 shots more per 60 when Skinner is in net, plus far more scoring and HD chances. Skinner has the better SV%, but the team is giving up more PK goals when he plays (this is full season numbers here).
It’s really weird. It’s much more than simply ‘more run support’. (and not trying to suggest this is due to Campbell, but it makes you wonder)
Stu picked up the slack when injuries were at their high point and run support was low. Jack bumped him off when the got healthy.
Stu will mean revert upwards through the end of the year. Don’t worry if it looks bad for a game or two in the next two weeks. He’ll be fine and it’s coming 👍
Necessity is the mother of invention.
What about the necessity to invent more ways to score with Skinner in net? The Oilers record is 13-11-4 when Skinner has been credited with the result.
Campbell must be way better than even Mike Smith in breaking the puck out of Edmonton’s zone!
Boston Bruins 91 points… 92 goal differential
And we’re not even at the TD. Dear lord. Seasons like this can be a jinx for a team though. The slate is wiped clean for game one.
They made changes to get here
Krejci back, kept Lindholm and tinkered with bottom 6
It’s a template Kenny. A fair amount of changes to get better
Bergeron and Krejci trying to win another cup for $3.5M total has a lot to do with that template as well.
The Bruins will pay for it next season though – those two have massive performance bonuses that were easily vested.
Kreji got $1M for 10 games played, $500K for 20 games played and $500K for making the playoffs.
Bergeron got $2.5MM for 10 games played.
They are in LTIR and that $4MM will hit their cap next season.
Yes thanks for putting the numbers up
That’s the dance if a GM is serious
They could both re-sign for league minimum for another shot and mitigate it
For sure, but this is their best last chance, while Bergeron/Krejci are still willing and able, and while Pastrnak is still on his cheap deal. I don’t imagine there was a lot of hand wringing about the cost/benefit of affecting next years cap.
Oh, I don’t disagree – if its gets them the cup, which it might, its all worth it.
I was just noting it as many don’t realize those performance bonuses are there and that they will create a cap penalty next season. Giving those massive bonuses that were certain to vest was really no different than opening/saving current cap space (and creating dead cap for future seasons) similar to a buyout or a trade with retained salary
Lindholm, in particular, and Hall, signed below market deals. It took a year, but they got their UFA goaltender right.
I don’t think Hall is as good or as esteemed as folks here think he is
Teams weren’t exactly banging his door down to overpay him. Lindholm likes a winner. Barrie found the same thing as Hall
100% Sweeney did lots of good things beyond receiving those gift deals from Bergeron/Krejci. The Lindholm and Pastrnak contracts are beautiful. Ullmark looks great today.
Also quite a bit of luck in Marchand turning into a star after signing long term at age 28, but they currently have the 2nd best winning percentage of any team since there were 6 teams, so kudos to Sweeney for sure.
Wow – if Hall is below market at 16G/35P in 56 games for $6MM, what are Nuge and Hyman who both score more goals, produce more points and play the PK (which Hall doesn’t)…..?
It does. Something Holland needs in his wheel house
Oh come on. Holland deserves more credit for getting Kane at $2.1M last season than Sweeney does for those Bergeron/Krejci deals this year.
TBirds lay a beating, figuratively and literally, on the Royals, 7-0, but Reid isn’t involved in anything other than the fighting.
Fun fact: Seattle has played Victoria in back-to-back games, outscoring them 15-1. And they play each other yet again on the morrow.
Less fun fact: Schaefer contributed just an assist in those two games. Perhaps diminished ice-time has indeed become a thing?
He’s playing on the “first line” with Guenther and Lambert. Three first rounders together. They’re getting at least second line time from my eye. And he’s been out there, net front on the powerplay.
That line didn’t score much against Vic though. Only one goal this game too.
Dear Lowetide: Thanks to starting my 30 games season in a season that’s given my usual ridiculous self a rare breather because now that the Oilers are semi struggling I just look at the record over the past 21-22 games and they come in at over 100 points for a full season; which makes everything a lot easier.
It’s hilarious the way this team goes up and down again. The playoffs are coming up so hope they can make it up a couple of notches in the West. That 8th place and opening at home rarely works, and most times fails miserably.
Per Chris Johnston:
Of interest to me – with the Caps struggling, they are open to listening to what the market says on his player – Orlov and Jensen are intriguing UFA d-men.
Among other intel – some tidbits on P. Kane and E. Karlssson
https://www.northstarbets.ca/sportsbook/insights#news/article/inside-the-nhl-maple-leafs-patrick-kane-timo-meier-canucks
I don’t know how much weight I would put in qualitative statements like this but I still found it comforting.
Chris Johnston is a shit-disturber, lol. I think he is just trolling us 🤪
Well, he was the one that put out that the Oilers had re-engaged in Karlsson which has, essentially, been verified by all the other top end insiders (Friedman, Seravelli, etc.)…..
Yes, thus my comment (meant to be tongue in cheek) and all the for Karlsson vs against Karlsson amongst Oilers fans…
Our broadcast team is definitely better thsn flames.
It’s a very creepy bunch.
Kraken lose 4-0 and the Flames lose 4-3
Makes up a bit for the weekend results.
Interesting how 75% of the Sharks’ offense in this game came from part-timers/waiver wire fodder.
Provorov played 27+ minutes due to Torts PBing Sanheim, from MB, but played for the Hitmen and had a bunch of family in attendance.
Seattle shut out by SJS.
Markstrom gives up 4 on 22 shots as the flames lose in regulation at home to the Flyers playing their current back-up.
An absolutely egregious non-call on the flames with 30 seconds left as JVR was about to put in the empty-netter – thankfully the flames didn’t take advantage
Couple of absolute gifts on the out of town. The exact opposite of Saturday when everybody won.
Solid info by Hart here:
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
·
3h
The #LetsGoOiler
performance bonus watch (bonuses earned are carryover cap hit next year):
-Broberg 2nd D +/-; $212.5K if top 3 (min 42 GP)
-Bouchard 5th D TOI; $212.5K if top 4
-Bouchard 18 A’s, $212.5K for 25
-Bouchard 0.37 P/GP, $212.5K for 0.49
—————
Of note, if Bouchard is traded in-season, the Oilers won’t be on the hook for any of his vested performance bonuses – that that I think that will (or should) happen but just noting for info.
But it could happen, so that is good info, thanks.
Jeebus man, just an enormous amount of posts the last few days. Is everything ok? Seriously. I know how people compensate. Not being a wiseass.
He’s on a witch-hunt to burn Jack at the stake before at least giving him 1 Playoff opportunity.
The Sharks have a salary cap problem in Erik Karlsson.
The Oilers have a salary cap problem in Jack Campbell.
Maybe Grier can get away with only retaining 20%, but he needs to take Barrie, JP, AND Campbell off our hands … and send us Reimer for this year’s playoff run.
This is crazy enough it could actually work.
Campbell has a 10 team NTC but that doesn’t have to be a showstopper
I’m not sure that’s Holland’s MO, but it’s interesting
Pretty certain it isn’t, but depends how badly he wants Karlsson.
Yup
And it depends on how badly the people around Holland want Karlsson
I don’t think that’s correct … more like, it’s not Holland’s MO to throw a player that he’s sending out under the bus.
We’ve already seen that Holland is willing to walk away from players that he spent picks to acquire – e.g. Athanasiou and Kulikov – where the fit wasn’t good.
And he’s willing to move out bad contracts that he signed – e.g. Kassian – when those players don’t live up to their deals.
Mostly he’s only been pretty stubborn when it comes holding on to players developed by the organization … we’re the only team to still have its past 10 first round picks still on the team. Even Jesse and Benson are still kicking around, despite multiple subliminal “sail on” posts.
I think it’s much more his MO to admit that things aren’t working out with an acquired player and that it would be best to move Campbell along to another team. I can already see the press conference … “We really liked Jack, but Stu arrived sooner than we thought … and dollar in, dollar out …”
I really like the idea of retention going both ways … and unfortunately, I really like the idea of moving Campbell out in a deal for Karlsson.
I don’t think Stu’s the answer in the net, and I think there’s a good chance that Campbell will turn it around next season (with another team that doesn’t play in a hockey mad market), and everyone will be roasting Holland for moving the guy. But right now the guy is really struggling … it would probably be a relief from the expectations that have been foisted on him since he signed in the summer.
Reimer sucks just as much as Campbell does, but his contract is over with after this season, after which the Oilers can go into this summer with some capspace to sign a cheaper goalie to tandem with Stu. Of course, this comes with the tacit acknowledgement that the Oilers will have to live with average/mediocre goaltending for the next few years … the impact of this should be mitigated by Karlsson dominating for 20+ minutes at even strength.
I agree to an extent.
I think Holland’s MO involves loyalty to players he’s put effort into convincing to join his team (and who have likely put their trust, to an extent, in Holland). So he wouldn’t cut bait on Campbell lightly, on the loyalty level.
I think another part of Holland’s MO is patience and not overreacting to a small sample size. In the case of Athanasiou, conditions (salary cap) changed and he didn’t double down, but this is a different situation. Holland likely still thinks (as I do) that Campbell will recover his game (as an Oiler) to the levels he’s played at for years before this one.
No doubt there are more questions about Campbell and the future than there were 6 months ago, but I still think it’s extremely unlikely Holland would be actively trying to move him along. For better or worse (I think it’s generally for better) he takes the long view and sticks with guys who are struggling. Think about Mike Smith last year. No one (NO ONE) thought he had anything left, but Holland stuck with him and it paid off.
So I think that Campbell’s disappointing play has opened the door just a sliver to the possibility of being moved, but it’s not something that would happen outside of exceptional circumstances (definitely not in a normal ‘dollar in, dollar out’ deal as you suggest).
I do think that acquiring a Hall of Fame defenseman, still playing at an elite level, might qualify as exceptional circumstances though. Still very unlikely, but I could see Campbell being moves as a way to make that deal work for both sides.
The math actually works on that deal. Even moreso if the Sharks retain 50% on Reimer. That would leave $1.125M to add a forward, with Desharnais up and Holloway on minor league IR.
The thing is the Sharks are looking to dump cap, if they’re trading Karlsson, which means minimum long term cap coming back. I don’t think they would see taking Campbell as acceptable.
It is interesting – you could turn the dials on all the contracts to get what each party wants
A little retained on each of Karlsson/Reimer and a little retained on JP/Barrie/Campbell
Assuming San Jose isn’t interested in JP, I think (with salary retained) he could be flipped again before the deadline
Same with Barrie (although that might be a summer deal) so that’s potentially 2 more assets in for SJ
So after this summer, all that would be left is 4 years each of Karlsson/Campbell – with salary retained on Campbell perhaps that contract isn’t as unappealing (and possibly movable, again, assuming retention)
And I think SJ would want draft picks to lubricate the whole transaction
It would take an astonishing level of self-awareness and admission of error by Holland to turn his back on a long term bet this early. And then also getting the Sharks to eat Campbell… Looks hard, lol.
I mean I guess we can’t talk about any aspect of trading for EK that isn’t fraught with complexity, lol. And really it comes down to what I said at the start of this romance… it all depends on how badly the parties involved want it to happen.
So who knows. But this is definitely a way it can get done and keep the Sharks retention to a minimum, so bravo to John for that.
San Jose has to pay a goalie anyway.
He’ll be like the new Martin Jones!
Holland wouldn’t do it but it would be a very slick way to back out of a mistake
Reimer isn’t looking much better, but I would feel better with him and Stu. I could see Reimer getting juiced for the change and a shot and getting to his better game
but, but, but that doesn’t help the Sharks’ salary cap problem if they take Campbell for 4 years at $5MM……..????
If the Oilers retain 1 million, then he’s just a 4 million x 4 years goalie … which is pretty average for goalie pay, quite frankly.
I do think there is going to be an awkward situation developing where Stu is getting played like the starter, but Soup is getting paid like the starter. We’re not quite there yet, but I have no doubt that Holland can see it just like us armchair GMs.
That’s not bad. Well done.
Interesting thought exercise, but I think on the Oiler end they’d need to find a 3rd team to retain half of the remainder. Otherwise, that would still be a $9.2 million cap hit and I can’t see how this team can afford to carry so many hefty salaries without causing massive long-term headaches.
The amount retained on Karlsson will be commensurate on the number of prospects and picks heading back to SJ.
Woot! And the Flyers score. Allison standing at the crease takes a rush seam pass and tucks it in to make it 4-3 with 8 to play
And Kadri heads to the box for the hooking. Only the second powerplay of the night for the Flyers.
coleman in all alone on the breakaway, beats the goalie and somehow the puck goes off the post. Ersson, Coleman both thought he had scored and in fact they’re reviewing this but it should be no goal. Call on the ice was no goal.
Flames tie it up. Have had goal legs since the Toffoli goal. Breadeater on the doorstep with an easy tap on a pad rebound. Torts calls a timeout. Flyers have got to find a pushback shift.
Meanwhile the sharks are up 4-0. I’ve left that game despite the dulcet color of Remenda…
Konecny has an UBI, unlikely to return to the Flames game
Moments after that announcement, Toffoli sweeps a surprise shot at the net from wide of the dot and it totally fools the young keeper
Eric Francis is sitting a little too closely to dear Meaghan for my liking….
Sharks go up 2-0 on the Krak. Flames losing 3-1 to the Fly Guys. Remenda is doing the sharks game, so if you miss his commentary…
…. Finish that sentence lol.
Make that 3-0 Sharks as they score again before the period ends. 17 secs to go in the 2nd
Flyers take a later first period lead on the flames – one can hope/dream.
As an aside, they are playing Ersson in this game so, presumably, Carter Hart gets the start tomorrow.
Briefly up 2-0 but Flames just scored.
2-1 Flyers at the halfway point
Since it’s become a topic of conversation, McDavid’s GA and xGA rates overall and when playing with the lead.
This season at 5v5:
When leading
339 min 4.78 GA/60 2.59 xGA/60
(48.1%GF, 59.3%xGF)
/
All scores
916min 3.14 GA/60 2.64 xGA/60
(51.0%GF, 57.4%xGF)
Previous 2 seasons at 5v5:
When leading
764 min 2.36 GA/60 2.48 xGA/60
(60.0%GF, 58.3%xGF)
/
All scores
2266 min 2.60 GA/60 2.41 xGA/60
(58.3%GF, 58.2%xGF)
Thanks JP. Still an issue but not X2
Also an issue that’s specific to this season. And specific only to the minutes when the Oilers are leading.
I don’t believe there’s an ‘issue’ here at all, if that’s not clear.
He’s still 6.4 under All Scores. The team is struggling. I understand it’s this season, but this is ‘the’ season right? That’s what they said
At some point excuses have to stop. If winning the Cup is the goal
2.64? I’m not sure what you mean.
57.4 – 51
Well, he’s double over the prior years, when leading. That’s a pretty big jump. For him to return to those numbers, he’d have to play over 160 minutes without a goal. For him to obtain those numbers, means 27 goals were scored in those minutes rather than what would’ve been 13 using the earlier rates.
Is that a lot to lay at the door of luck?
I mean it can’t be a lot of universes in the casino-verse where this is happening.
While on the PP, Petrov lets fly a wicked wrister from the top of the circle for his 24th goal of the season.
Per Gregor: Holloway will be out about a month.
Yeah, that’s what day to day means, right, Woody?
Trust me, I’m the last person to defend Woody’s public intel on injuries (and I criticize him often for his dishonesty) but the neither Woody, the Condors or the Oilers provided any timeline on Holloway – only Stauff who had “week to week” to day after the injury.
Now E. Kane is “day to day” per Wood – lets see where that goes.
Ribs
This is more of a summer trade, but if I’m the Oilers my target is Parayko.
This is who I target.
This year I target Chychrun and waive good bye to Karlsson who is going to cost to much.
I hope they get healthy soon and begin to pay attention to details, all of them. And Kenny gets his thing sorted and can ice enough players
My concern is the longer they can’t do it, the more playoff success lessens
McDavid makes opposition players look inferior. He also makes his own teammates look inferior. I wonder if this impression imprints itself on the coaches’ collective psyche such that they lose confidence in the players not named McDavid (or Draisaitl). I wonder whether this gets communicated and results in the non-star players losing ice time and confidence more than they should. I feel I saw this in the Avs game; too much give it to McDavid and he’ll do it for us.
McDrai lead the team in giveaways. They are ‘superior’ one-way players. This is not a problem if you have the defensive players to take up the slack; sadly we don’t.
He is certainly earning ice time, perhaps even the suggested move up the depth chart but, yes, here we are, with his minutes being severely cut down the stretch of games where he’s playing well and helping to tilt the ice in the right direction – stapled to the bench while the “more trusted players” help to blow leads.
They might be mitigating injury risk as he’s definitely in trade play
I don’t think that is even a small consideration in Woody’s deployment.
I could be wrong but I don’t think it is at all.
Seems to do his best work when his ice time is under 10 minutes.
Nobody knows. His TOI was down before things heated up again
Not related to last night, but is there something going on with Skinner? I haven’t been paying close attention, but see his last start was Feb 12. Is he sick or hurt?
Illness
No kostin no Vincent no Kane the missing physicality is apparent. The Av’s were prancing around without a care in the world. We are way to soft with these 3 players not on the game roster.
I have all day for Yamamoto on this team but its very very true that the this team turned around when VD, EK and Koskin were plugged into the lineup.
Having them all pulled from the lineup at the moment the team start skidding is far from coincidence, its the scientific method at work and should calm some nerves knowing that not one of these guys is out long term.
They need to out-score and out-physical opponents given Jack Campbell is a Shootor Tutor.
Well, Kostin has been sick and Kane hurt so, not much could have been done there.
Deharnais was also out of the lineup with illness on Wed and didn’t skate on Thurs and, while he was re-assigned prior to Friday’s game, still sick and would have been unavailable – he still hasn’t joined the Condors – either due to continued illness or, perhaps, imminent recall (regular or emergency).
Kane’s rocking -6 in 10 gp since returning…I do want him getting caught up with season form but we did pot 5 goals and the zebras didn’t need anymore reasons to call penalties against oilers.
Hadn’t realized he was playing with McDavid enough to rock that bad of a +\-.
Suddenly, seeing people wake from a slumber and seemingly have an ‘awakening’ on Jack Campbell.
If your are just picking up on Campbell now- Feb 20th…you’ve missed an important story since the beginning of the season.
Critically, people are continuing pound the table to obtain Erik Karlsson age and salary as a solution to this…..
EK is risky but if that worked out there’d be a lot less defending and more offensive pressure on the bad guys. I’m certain goalies would end up happier
The main problem to me is that the best outcome would be EK taking pressure off Nurse by anchoring a solid other pairing. But there isn’t a suitable LD for him outside of Nurse
Bro is too young and Kulak wouldn’t bolster EK being a marginal 2nd pair guy and not great defensively or a cycle breaking net front guy. EK would be carrying either guy although I think Bro may respond quickly to such a high end partner
People have been highly critical of Campbell all year, and rightly so. If not for the All-Star play of Steady Stu Skinner our season’d be sewered by now.
Campbell has cost us, what about 20 goals compared to a viable NHL goalie? That’s probably worth 8-10 points in the standings. A useful Campbell (or any replacement) goalie would change the narrative around the team a whole lot.
The team is really been weighed down by his performance.
12.3 goals at 5 on 5 according to NST and 16 goals all situation.
Numbers (whatever they say) aside, I’m going to hope he catches lightning in a bottle for the playoffs.
If nothing else, that he has a strong off season and performs to expectations (league average or slightly better) next season.
I was hoping skinner’s decent play might buy enough rope to allow Campbell to settle in and get going. Running short of runway.
Wasn’t able to catch the game yesterday as I was on the road. Managed to tune into OT on Ched as I was westbound through Maidstone, of all places.
I could feel the Rantanen goal coming, didn’t seem like the Oilers were controlling the play at all, and merely lucky to have their opportunities. Definitely didn’t like the fourth COL goal watching the highlights. That’s a momentum shifter, and something Soup has to iron out of his game.
You could feel the collapse coming after the Avs scored their 4th goal.
Even though it was 5-4 for the good guys, team looked exhausted & deflated.
Jack Campbell makes the occasional brilliant save but every game he is Sub-900 sv% at the end.
Not good enough by a mile
Apparently Yost agrees:
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/stuart-skinner-has-earned-the-crease-for-edmonton-oilers-1.1921548
So with average goaltending at best does Holland make a massive push and overpay for EK because the Oilers will need 5-6 goals a game or make minor changes only because the goaltending isn’t good enough anyway?
Does anyone actually think a plan of scoring 5-6 goals per game is a recipe for success?
The rookie is providing average goalering…
The starter is not. (Over the whole season).
The consensus was that this summer the Oilers merely needed “average” goaltending.
We only needed Jack to not be shitty.
Well.
In my opinion, the acquisition of Karlsson is not just about scoring, it is also about preventing the clown shows in the Dzone when the puck is unable to cross the impenetrable barricade that is placed across the blueline.
If you watch EK closely, his puck-moving IQ is off the charts. He is not perfect, but if he doesn’t have a passing option he does some very unique things. It is amazing to watch and reminds me of some of the things the Sedins did. Also, I don’t see him as THE solution, I see him as part of a solution for FIVE playoff runs.
The mentorship aspect alone for Broberg and Bouchard (and others) is worth its weight in first round picks alone.
But don’t worry, I am sure the old timey adages of hairy-assed defensemen who are cycle-busters that can’t skate or pass, but can block out the sun will prevail. So you can expect Kenny to trade 2 firsts, plus Lavoie and Bouchard for Gavrikov and Edmunson.
Why? Is this how the Oilers have staffed their blue line in rent years?
Relatively easier player-type to acquire (generally have lower cap hits or NMC’s), and are usually less controversial, the early verbal on who were Oiler D targets, the recent run of GA; 6, 5, 5, 6 (22 total goals against in the last 4 games).
I agree wholeheartedly.
EK65 is underrated for his defensive play, because he has to play in his end so rarely. And I also think people miss the litany of subtle plays he makes, either with his skating, feints, or passes. He’s often able to create space where there was previously none, using that big brain and agility. I think the biggest knock is how often he would be seen back checking because he was so far up in the offensive play. So there’s risk-reward associated with his play. With a steady, competent defender as a partner, I see that as reasonably mitigated.
The injury risk is absolutely a big deal, not sure if it’s more of an elephant in the room than the AAV. I’d tend to bet he’s able to hold off the cliff longer than most, due to being elite.
If Kenny has a chance to acquire him, he’s gotta do it.
I would love to see Karlsson on this Oilers team, but I’m not sure if a) it can be done, and b) if it’s a good idea?
The only way this works for the Oilers is if San Jose retains, AT LEAST, 4 million dollars for 4 more years. I’m not sure that’s ever been done before, as that is a massive retention. How many assets would that cost?
I would suggest a trade package of something like Barrie, Yamamoto, Foegele plus 3 picks/ prospects for Karlsson and a minimum contract forward would work for the Oilers this year and next. I’m not sure if that’s enough for San Jose?
The real crunch comes when the Draisaitl contract is up. At that point you still have Karlsson on the books for 2 more years and there might not be enough room to sign Draisaitl. You are also locked into the current roster for at least 3 years as there would be absolutely no wiggle room to add any other significant salary. And you are probably going to lose some good young players if they get too expensive (Bouchard, McLeod, Kostin, Broberg, Hollaway, etc).
Having said all that I believe Karlsson for 4 more years at 7.5 million is a value contract and probably gives this team its best chance of winning a cup over that time period.
Quite the dilemma. It’s a shame we are at this point in year 8 of McDavid.
Man, did Chiarelli ever fuck this team up.
Karlsson will help get the goals against down. He is a complete defenseman who plays defense with puck possession.
Single events are how the Oilers break stats and have since Gagner was a tiny Samwise
My theory is that they make egregious mistakes that good teams don’t that much, or they aren’t good. Because of the offensive talent via draft they outscore their BF/60 and look like a team that should contend
So we see Connor’s GA doubling his xGA. The stat looks at location etc but doesn’t account for how uncontested the GA may have been. Good teams don’t give up uncontested chances much, or they wouldn’t be good. Goalies are going to be affected on the play and mentally when they can’t trust the team D won’t hang them out to dry
The nature of Oiler egregious breakdowns also makes D some stats look better than reality. HDCA 7th, HDGA 16th. Those be closer in ranking. It’s the BF/60 that is sinking everything and causing the instability
Holland should let the players hear that message. Be part of the solution or prepare to move along. Of course you don’t do that to the Duo, but make it clear leaders gotta lead, and nobody wins Cups that can’t defend the house and makes it easy on the bad guys
Amd get better D men
I’ll bite, BF = Brain rhymes with not Smart?
Ding ding
When I was with Copper & Blue way back when, we used to refer to HUA/60.
At the risk of offending the reader, that was the acronym for Head Up Ass. It was an issue back then when Pat Quinn was “coaching” a very weak team, & remains an issue to large degree today. I suspect it also holds true with many, many teams, but is most noticeable by far with the one you are following.
And for me amplified when I watch eastern teams, that play a more playoff style all season
I also really notice that two strong teams in a game from over there will still generate attack through the heavy checking. The difference being there are few freebies, so goals come harder, but the chance creation remains quality
Our guys are easily stymied 5V5 by basic clogging and interference on the attack. They sometimes get a lot of shots, and are counted as HD because of location, but don’t look like probable goals or goal chances quite often, more trying wraps and stuffs, throw it at the net and bang and hope for the best
I find Oilers often take ‘in the blue paint’ literally and are so close in they don’t have space to make a play or take a decent scoring shot. Hyman has an ability to stand on the goalie and pull it off, not seeing many others do it regularly though
The eastern guys do that those types of plays as well, but combine it with purposeful plays that score more, low high plays from behind the goal line and cross seam plays – get the goalie moving to increase the odds
We had a stretch where the good guys started doing that more, but like always there has been no sustain, especially under duress
I remember that, and Clear Victories I think it was from Reynolds and Zona?
Now that is some advanced stats that I want tracked.
Lest we be spreading misinformation, McDavid’s xGA/60 is 2.64 and his GA/60 is 3.14.
I assume the ‘doubling’ idea comes from the small sample size with the Oilers leading, when McDavid’s on ice SV% was .853 (next worst Oiler was .883).
Thanks for correcting that. I thought I saw that down the thread but can’t find it now
I think we will have to get use to seeing Campbell getting the lions share of starts as the precedent of getting a goalie going was set last year with
Mike Smith.
Perhaps but I think the reason we’ve seen Jack, Jack, Jack is the illness that Skinner has been dealing with.
I still think the defence is leading to higher GA. A guy like Mike Smith could break up sorties with his puck handling and he’s a good desperation goalie. But I remember him getting beat on similar sorts of scrambly goals we see JC getting beat on.
JC needs to be better, full stop. But the Oilers need another puck mover to help move out of the zone. They are missing Keith’s puck moving ability 100%.
Is Chychrun a back end puck mover or is he only good in the o zone? (Ala Barrie) I get why Karlsson is a target, it would slot everyone down and I think dramatically improve the team.
Also Kenny needs to solve this cap crunch ASAP, maybe an injury frees his hands (I’m sure that’s what he’s thinking) but it’s costing this team points. They’ve been tired and slowed down in all of the last three games despite dominating early.
I’m not going to overreact, need some wins this week though.
Some tidbits from DFO’s scouting report on Chychrun follow:
source: https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/buy-or-beware-assessing-jakob-chychruns-trade-value
I said from the first months of this season how underrated Smith was at playing the puck and distributing the puck, our D-fence isn’t built to go into corners and beat guys one on one.
I thought Foegele had some interesting comments after the game about how the forwards weren’t helping enough and that the team needs to take shorter shifts. I’m not sure why Woodcroft doesn’t just roll the lines considering that his bottom lines are looking better than the top lines these days. For the most part whatever line Nuge is playing on is the best line. 29 and 97’s 5 on 5 play is going to be the big story this spring. Not a trade. Either these guys figure out how to play with a lead or this team is going nowhere. Woodcroft needs to change his OT game plan. The Oilers don’t manage the puck well or make smart line changes. It feels like they rarely have the puck in OT.
I too noted him talking about needing to take shorter shifts when leading.
I’m not sure if his intent was a comment about the team leaders or about himself.
———–
Woody did change the OT game plan a bit yesterday though, didn’t he? Well, at least the deployment with McDavid and Drai split to start and with Bouchard getting the second shift.
I’m just about to listed to the 32 Thoughts as I bang out some sprints but, from accounts, I will hear:
Oiler Alert
@OilerAlert
“I think it’s some combination of Vegas, Dallas, Edmonton” on where Patrick Kane’s heart is. @FriedgeHNIC
on 32 Thoughts.
Adds that #Oilers have interest and that Kane could ask Keith about his time in the organization to help form his decision.
Friedman mentions that in the West everybody is waiting to see what Edmonton and Vegas will do. Says it’s “obvious that two teams are thinking big.”
————————-
I’ve been “down” on acquiring P, Kane given his noted hip issue and related low production (by far the worst of his career).
3G/1A last night against a top team – well, I’m not quite there yet but, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong and I’ll admit it. If he’s acquired and a great fit, nothing would make me happier!
Well, we know he’s a playoff killer. And he had 92 points just last year. We don’t know how much fallen production is due to disinterest or lack of quality linemates, but there would be some. And he would give PP2 a lift.
I think he would lean to Vegas over the Oil and I’m not sure we need another guy whose strength is passing. He certainly would be good injury cover for the top 6 and PP1 though.
But do you break the bank for this guy? Does Holloway’s injury play a part in Holland’s targeting? How we gonna fix goals against, PK and faceoffs?
I don’t see Old Dutch going against the grain of his past spending big on an expiring contract. Unless, of course, there was some interest or even a handshake deal to extend.
Agreed that PKane isn’t the most pressing need for our team, but he definitely has the potential to be a game breaker for our club. Just think of Patty Kane, on the second PP unit. LOL. If he were acquired, I could see him burying beauty feeds from one (or both) of Connor or Leon, or initiating tic-tac-toe plays galore.
I don’t know if Patrick Kane is what the Oilers really need. This Oilers team really has no problem scoring goals. What they really need are players with a defensive conscience. However, as the great Gretzky used to say, if we have the puck on our stick they can’t score. So, which is it, a great defense is a great offense, or a great offense is a great defense? I’m so confused.
But then I also wonder if Patrick Kane is done like dinner and not worth the time of day.
Maybe he can be the defensiuve conscience that McD & Hyman need.
Yeah. Maybe not.
I believe Hlland’s main assumption is if you have to trade a 1st (in a strong draft especially), get a player with term, not an overpriced rental. For that reason, if I have to choose between P Kane and one of Chychrun or Karlsson, I choose one of the defencemen. No way I trade the 1st for an expiring contract. If I can’t get one of the two D at the deadline I tinker around the edges at the deadline, and revisit both D in the offseason.FOMO ruins many investors, as well as many hockey teams.
1) Yes, that is Holland’s general MO (don’t trade 1st rounders for rentals) but I would counter that, in this case, with the fact that its Patrick Freaking Kane. Now, if he’s not the Patrick Kane we are used to, due to injury or regression, that’s another thing.
2) From listening to Friedman/Marek, this morning, Fridge thinks it might not take a 1st round pick………
So, you’re saying Karlsson AND Kane?
Good grief, I like your style…
I’m just about to listed to the 32 Thoughts as I bang out some sprints but, from accounts, I will hear:
Oiler Alert
@OilerAlert
·
22m
“I think it’s some combination of Vegas, Dallas, Edmonton” on where Patrick Kane’s heart is. @FriedgeHNIC
on 32 Thoughts.
Adds that #Oilers have interest and that Kane could ask Keith about his time in the organization to help form his decision.
Oiler Alert
@OilerAlert
·
9m
Friedman mentions that in the West everybody is waiting to see what Edmonton and Vegas will do. Says it’s “obvious that two teams are thinking big.” #LetsGoOiler
————————-
I’ve been “down” on acquiring P, Kane given his noted hip issue and related low production (by far the worst of his career).
3G/1A last night against a top team – well, I’m not quite there yet but, if I’m wrong, I’m wrong and I’ll admit it. If he’s acquired and a great fit, nothing would make me happier!
Vegas, Dallas, and Edmonton are sloppy seconds to Kane’s preferred choice, which was the Rangers.
I’d be more interested in Kane if he hadn’t had that whining fit when Tarasenko took the Rangers.
Saying Kane had a “whining fit” is a ridiculous take.
He looked like his dog died.
So what – yours is still a ridiculous take.
I can’t believe we gave up leads to both the Rangers and injured/ tired Avs.
Don’t worry folks, Philly and CBJ coming up here….people can resume getting really excited about our team
Except the Oilers haven’t played well against ether of those4 teams
We’ve been saying this all season and it hasn’t fixed itself. As someone has already posted, McDavid has 102 points and is just a +2. Drai has 82 points and is -3. What exactly are we waiting for? McDavid and Drai to score more in an attempt to win 7-6 instead of the organization focusing on the D side of the game?
I have been perpelexed by the Drai and McD numbers all season.
Is it D play?
Goalies?
Luck?
All of the above?
Goalies
But yet no one talks about that……
There’s a sizable contingent of this fanbase that believes if we criticize McDavid, he’ll bolt as a UFA.
Connor is the alpha male and they’re the clingy friend with the low self esteem.
No, you don’t let McDavid bolt as a UFA. You deal him and get back a major haul and re-stack for the present and future. Same goes for Leon. The team comes before the player.
It’s not about criticizing McDavid. It’s about criticizing the entire team and organization. The problem is bigger than one player, or one position.
Both individual and group accountability are required for sustained excellence.
No one is suggesting otherwise.
So instead they rip Drai. Lazy, indifferent, bad body language, etc., etc. But when evaluating the team, those same folks often start with “best 2 players in the game”.
The irony is that cheating for offense has worked to a degree because the offensive production is so impressive that it has somewhat elevated the dynamic duo above criticism for the team’s underperformance. Lost in this is how much of their offense is driven on the PP while giving it back 5v5.
You can absolutely see it in the low percentage passes or sorties that Connor or Leon take. They are thinking offense only and the negative defensive ramifications rarely cross their mind.
They need a reset that their job isn’t to score. Their job is to outscore their opposition. If that means Connor only gets one point but the MacKinnon line doesn’t piss a drop, so be it. That is mission accomplished.
Bowman did this with Yzerman and from what I’ve read, it wasn’t easy. Stevie Y resisted it but Scottie had the rings and the resume. If Woodcroft can’t get Connor and Leon playing consistent two way hockey, Barry Trotz may be the nuclear ‘Bowman’ option.
Not enough runway on Draisaitl’s and McDavid’s contracts for Trotz.
Bowman had the advantage in that Yzerman didn’t want to leave Detroit and didn’t have an NTC, and Ottawa (okay Nepean) is his home town, and the Senators were dementoring along at that point, and Illitch backed Bowman.
As an example of what I’m talking about, Leon threw a blind pass from the corner to the high slot yesterday. Predictably it immediately resulted in an odd man rush the other way.
That is the kind of thing they beat out of you in bantam!
There’s being in attack mode and there’s being reckless or indifferent. The 200ft discipline just isn’t there consistently.
Arrogant is a word that comes to mind. Thinking that you can do that, outside of extraordinary circumstances. I don’t mean to disparage him, but his behaviour on the ice this season
Maybe he’s enacting the crap he was speaking about, learning to less and get more done because he was hurt in the playoffs. I have never heard a professional athlete talk like that and see it work out. The results speak
Only Connor gets that ‘pass’ and he shouldn’t do it either
I wouldn’t even mind if they only did this when we need a goal or the score is even. Once we build up a lead this kind of thing should be kaiboshed and shutdown mode should be initiated.
McDavid is third in 5 on 5 scoring but Drai is tied for 28th.
They are 25th and 84th in P/60.
Leon is simply not producing to expectations this season at 5 on 5. McDavid is producing but not at the historical levels that he is overall (due to the PP).
Couple this we the GA issue with each of those two on the ice.
They aren’t THE problem but they are both part of the GA issue, that’s for sure.
We talk about them having to play so much – well, they don’t – they didn’t last night but the coach forced it and benched players that were helping in the process. The coach is part of the problem on some nights as well.
I appreciate your optimism LT, that is why I come here almost everyday.
The more I watch this team, the more skeptical I become of the McDavid years and the potential to win the cup. While the bottom 6 is now finally treading water, the top 6 is well below reasonable expectations with respect to 5v5. I can’t figure out which ego it is in the top 2 players, but the lack of constant commitment to team and defensive play is the barrier that must be breached to get this team to the next level…and time is running out. Practice like you mean to play, the regular season is practice for the playoffs (if one makes it). They think they are going to magically flick a switch and figure it out if they make it to the playoffs. Possibly in fits and starts, but not consistently for the requisite16 Ws.
“the indifference is obvious” – voila
My patience with Bouch is nearly done. He cannot bring urgency to his D game. He passively watches far too much at this point in his career. Sure, some very nice offensive aspects, but between he and Barrie there is not enough of the other half of the game between them. I look forward to regular ice-time for Vinny when he gets back, he knows how to play Defense, and its important for Defensemen to know how to play Defense.
I like the saying:
“Too slow to recognize danger”
Can’t remember who said it
🙂
Problem identified!
No, I’m not saying that McDavid and Drai are the problem, of course not. At the same time, they are not outscoring the opposition at 5 on 5 on the season. I think we can all agree that this team is going nowhere if both McDavid and Drai are not outscores at 5 on 5 (and MASSIVE outscorers when together). That’s just not happening for whatever reason. I’m sure part of that reason is defensive breakdowns (full team, d-men, etc.) and goaltending but the bottom 6 is finding a way to score and not get scored on (as much) – sure, softer minutes but, come on!
Willis was tweeting last night about GA/60 while leading rates and McDavid was like worst in the entire NHL. He was also right at the top for GF/60 while leading and, of course, the stat alone lacks important context but it is what it is.
Its mind-boggling that we are having a season where the McDavid/Drai off numbers are sparkling and the McDavid/Drai on numbers are the issue. Please note: that does not equate to McDavid/Drai being THE issue but the 6-man units when they are on the ice is the issue, and they are part of that.
This is the first season since his rookie season that Connor is rocking a PDO less than 1.00.
Problem appears to be conversion of HDCA into HDGA.
Kucherov +1
Rantanen +3
Kaprizov 0
Panarin +3
Tavares -3
Ovie -3
A lot of players in top scoring, year to year, aren’t + players 5×5. But, PP offense more than compensates for small differential “drag”.
While this isn’t to mcdrai established norms, I’m pretty sure sv% thst epuld have gotten koskinen burned at stake more the cause than these guys just sewering this significant in tandem.
They are getting worse goaltending than koskinen. And lime it or no that’s actually combined with I believe worse puck support handling than koskinen. I bet shots against higher than last year by significant margin. While I know it’s easy to remember everytime koskimen or Smith mishandled puck the sheet frequency is soo far below last year it’s not surprising there aren’t any real recallable miscues.
It was near unanimous Seattle’s goaltending would start to catch up to them. Oilers goaltending is also normalizing record as we speak.
Also 3rd worst on ice SV% in the league (and obviously by far the worst on the team).
When you have lost OP…..you know there is an issue.
Jack Campbell has been insanely consistent all year.
People are going to bet the house on us with Skinner / Campbell in playoffs?
Campbell has had a few good to great games, but it feels like when Talbot and Dubnyk were in their last years here. Just unreliable and a larger than usual number of soft goals.
The tell was when Jack Michaels (and Louie) kept repeatedly pumping his tires – again and again.
Like Jack keeps trying to tell us how great the games are….
There really is no choice.
Acquiring a goalie at the deadline that is a lock to be a better option? I can’t imagine that happening.
I do have some hope for Campbell going forward but I just don’t see it this season. My hope at this point is that this is one of those cases where a tender takes a full season with a new team to fully settle in – we’ve seen it many times.
Don’t get me wrong, I would LOVE if he found his game on a consistent basis this season and played like a .915 goalie, nightly (for the most part) but 55 games in, I don’t see it.
I don’t give up on the next four years but talk to me in November/December on that…..
Fully agree.
This logically ( I think ) leads to having Skinner lead us in a playoff run.
I really, really like Skinner but…..
Last year part of the solution would have been to run Skinner and see what he had. This year it’s the same answer. Get Skinner in net once he is ready and play him 2/3 of the time. If Campbell comes around he gets more playing time.
Campbell isn’t going to win anything this year. He has been living off of run support. Next year will be the final judgement.
Most of us wanted one of the veteran stop gaps.
When a team is lucky, they are generally a winning team. We saw that when this team was on a good roll a few weeks ago. They got all the favourable bounces and deflections. The other significant factor is officiating.
This officiating crew called 4 consecutive penalties on the Oil yesterday, but then decided to ignore infractions and to attempt to call a fair game when they had ample opportunity. Further to this insult, they ignore Girard’s pick on two Oilers for the Av’s first goal, then the pick on Nurse on the second goal and the pick plays on the OT goal.
On top of this was the icing call where Hyman clearly won the race, which Georgiev recognized, and so he decided to cover the puck. This also slowed down Hyman slightly. The argument from Leon was completely dismissed and within 20 seconds, the Avs scored. How does this happen?
And how is this tolerated by team owners?
Well, it’s been decades of garbage, one just gets accustomed to it. El Jefe has certain favourite teams who consistently get favourable treatment.
I don’t see any pick on Nurse on the OT goal.
I did. It was well executed by Colorado, but Rantanen did gain a half step on Nurse (all that was needed) due to a pick.
Not exactly a pick, just subtly great positioning by JT Compher — who has been fantastic in both games vs EDM — which forced Nurse to go around him before trying to angle off Rantanen.
In COL’s first win, it was MacKinnon subtly picking off McDavid in the neutral zone which opened the lane that Makar used to maximum advantage. COL very smart at this, & they don’t ever seem to get called for it. Usually because it isn’t an actual penalty.
Interesting how that works. Oilers should try some of those pick plays. The problem is they would be called for interference. Luck is manufactured in many different ways, a call here, or a missed call there. It’s all significant when it comes to a win, or a loss.
The Oilers have really weak gamesmanship. The only counter to being picked is be aware and add it to your own game
It seems the coaches are always snookered because they can’t get basic stable team play down which is profuse focus. So adding anything else doesn’t seem possible
With the Av’s it seems clearly coached as part of their game. They have learned to be good at it so the picks appear naturally out of the flow of the game rather than forced.
You mention McDavid and Hyman needing a defensive conscience on their line, LT. Couldn’t that be McDavid?
Leon had a shift in yesterday’s game where he imposed his will in the defensive zone. My immediate reaction was yes! It’s all in front of this team if their two best players play as well below the blueline as they do above it.
Connor doesn’t need Jere Lehtinen. He needs to be Yzerman. The C is the best position for defensive responsibility.
In a blue collar city that exalts effort, I’m frankly amazed at the amount of times Connor lets the opposition Fs attack the zone without hustling back. With his superior speed, he could close those gaps easily but his defensive effort is inconsistent and that’s being charitable.
102 pts and he’s +2.
Great post. I’ve been insinuating this for awhile, defense wins championships. Your last sentence is eye opening. I hadn’t looked at that this year.
It’s particularly worrisome when you consider how much of his production is feasting on the powerplay.
Over reliance on the PP is not a recipe for a long playoff run. Ref swallows the whistle to ‘let them play’ and you’re pretty much hooped.
Not if you pair that with a putrid PK…..Oh wait.
If I’m not mistaken, this narrative isn’t quite backed up with facts.
I believe (and, if I’m wrong, happy to be corrected) that the number of PP opportunities does not decrease in the playoffs, in particular in the first couple of rounds and, in fact, in some years there are more PPs issued in the first round.
Now, seemingly, more infractions are committed given the style played and a lesser percentage are called so, in some respects, the refs do “put the whistle away” but the PP opportunities remain to be exploited.
He needs to decide he wants to win the Selke. I’m sure he could if he wanted.
This is the year he’s decided to win the Richard – next year he can win the Selke……
No excuses now for him and Leon. The rest of the team is getting it done, they are underperforming
They will do something as LT says I just hope it involves more attention to quality and puck management not getting lucky bcs hot or forcing more
I think it’s something that needs to be discussed for sure.
IF this team fails to win a Cup with Connor, there will be a lot of criticism around the league on how this team ‘wasted McDavid.’ What that take is ignoring is that the player himself could have improved his odds with better defensive play.
Great post.
There were stretches late last season when Drai and McD were backtracking hard. They are unstoppable when they play defense. They are both fast, big, and strong. The physical attributes plus some hard work are all you need to be a dominant defensive player.
With Drai, I speculate he has been injured most of the season. Something just does not look right. Not an excuse but part of the story.
Great points. This is on Woody not thinking outside the box. If Leon can’t do it, he can’t do it, be creative. No player can be top end if he has the wrong or too much injury. Nobody’s that good
If they can’t defend pull a page out of your own team’s history and change responsibilities on a line and put players with them to do that. Can’t be worse right? They just can’t see it or won’t. Holland needs to supply the guys that can actually enact his goals
McDavid is Yzerman before Bowman. The Oilers need him to be Yzerman with Bowman, and post-Bowman.
Is it goalie? 5×5
High danger CA: 7th lowest
Top 6 – MNW, CAR, BOS, VGK, NJD, CAL
High danger CF%: 6th highest
Top 5 – CAR, TBL, NJD, TML, SJS
High danger GA: 16th best (59)
Top 7 – BOS (38), TBL(45), TML(46), CAR(47), DAL(47), NYR(51), NJD (53)
HIGH danger sV%: 21st
Mid danger CA: 8th lowest
Mid danger CF%:15th best
Mid danger GA: 12th best
Mid danger sv%: 20th
Low danger CA: 11th lowest
Low danger CF%:11th best
Low danger GA: 20th best
Low danger sv%: 20th
5×5 sv% – 20th
Pk sv% – 26th
Pretty sure goalie out dragging defence on anchor weight with only Asterix being -> pretty sure RHD sinking pk% but not sure how to pull numbers in games they literally add a better defensive defender in Vinny d mainly to pk.
Woody knows it. The fact ceci is massively ahead in pk minutes than Bouchard or barrie compared to nurse and other LHD options.
It’s probably frightening if you separate Campbell from skinner
I honestly would send Bouchard in package for parayko if I could get st louis to retain sime salary. At 4-5 million I think its a better all around solution to team composition issues.
Nurse parayko
Kulak ceci
Bro barrie
Pp1 barrie
Pp2 nurse
Pk1 nurse parayko/ceci
Pk2 kulak/bro ceci
The problem if you send out Bouch is you have to then replace him, while drafting late
He would be playing a lot better with a better partner. The concept of the B’s together is good I just think it’s too early for consistency from them
Ceci is a league minimum D next contract with his passing and production. Barrie is too old to be part of future plans
Also Barrie’s lucky run of regular chaos and not paying on the stats sheet seems to closing. Bouch’s now getting some of that luck it looks like
Last 20 games:
Broberg-Bouchard 190 minutes 5v5
CF% — 62%
SF% — 59%
SCF% — 64%
HDCF% — 65%
xGF% — 62%
GF% — 65%
Yes they are good and a pretty good match. Especially if they get some man strength and play a little harder game. The QC isn’t that high yet though is it? Fantastic third pair
If Bouch goes I think they run out of the positives he brings in a few seasons (say the get Karlsson) and skating passing puck moving D are a requirement as long as the league doesn’t go dead puck again
And what are the chances they draft that guy in the bottom of the draft? They’d be left with Bro and Nurse who isn’t a great puck mover as I see it
Have him ink a long deal at reasonable number or package imo.
No bridge. If you can include him in package of “acquire better fit for the 3 following playoffs” don’t blink hit trigger. No bridge.
Broberg turned bad Larry Murphy (the one booed out of two cities) into good Larry Murphy.(the one Bowman sheltered);
Broberg has really just taken away Bouch’s bad luck:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2023-04-14&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8480803&p2=8481598&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=t&playerid=8481598
That’s exactly right. Regression would have occurred, and Broberg arrived on time. I still give him credit for playing well but Bouchard’s numbers suggested he was playing in poor luck.
Both their numbers suggest that the coach has decided to make life easier on them. He even went as far as to bring in another defenseman.
Minutes against Elites
Bro: 12.0%
Boo: 13.4%
(since Jan 1)
Barrie’s next contract very likely 3rd pairing pp specialist. Bouchard doesn’t do overly well pk. Parayko basically takes bouch money. Reset is potentially not far off depending on mcdrai’s choices not teams.
Bouchard will make less than half of Parayko on his next contract (I presume).
Not going to overreact, my expectations of this team are calloused. I don’t see how KH can fix the holes, Cap hell for this team makes it too difficult, I still thing they should be sellers at the deadline. Lavoie and Tulio are looking better and better. Don’t trade them!
Tullio is a keeper, he is full of utility and only a first year pro. Lavoie has finally found his game this season, but he likely doesn’t see time in Edmonton this season (Philp might due to his utility).
It is great to see Raph ripping the biscuit with regularity, but his time is running out and he is vulnerable for a trade, because he is waiver eligible next season. As well Petrov and Savoie may be seen as superior and younger options in the organization.
I’d love to see him get an audition, though.
I believe Lavoie will be re-signed. In a recent interview of Ken Holland by Jason Gregor, he indicated that he is looking forward to Lavoie challenging for a roster spot this fall. Holland and Woodcroft recently watched him live in Calgary and Holland said he had some games.
Said he was looking forward to see him continue his run of good play and follow it up with a good offseason and training camp. I see an extension coming up for Lavoie. Believe he has figured out how to be an effective pro.
Great post.
There is no doubt Lavoie will be re-signed but, at the same time, he loses his waiver exemption at the start of next season so, if he doesn’t make the team out of camp (or they want to send him down at any point), he’ll need to be exposed.
Now, all sorts of players slide through waivers in the last few days before the season but this is the type of player that could be claimed.
A cup of coffee wouldn’t be terrible this season – expose the kids to speed/skill of the NHL game but its tough as he’s a higher cap number – I don’t think he’s got any performance bonuses for this year of his contract that would further muddy things.
Lavoie is consistently playing a determined game, and it is easily the most aggressive/dominant game played by a Condor. Philp is probably #2, although he is more opportunistic than Raph (rebounds/screens).
I’d love to see him continue on with the team, he’s got a lot of skill to go with his size. He was the player I wanted in his Draft year, so I was ecstatic to get him in the 2nd round. I have been following and cheering for this player for a long time, so I am very vested in this player, more than any other, except for Holloway.
Why wouldn’t one give Lavoie a shot? What have Yamamoto or Puljujarvi done? Eff all. Puljujarvi will be gone at the trade deadline as cap space for a D. Lavoie deserves a shot to take Yamamoto’s job.
Yamamoto also deserves the opportunity to get “up and running” – yes, when he is playing well, at the top of his game, he is indeed a positively impactful player on this team.
He has had like 5 years.
And been a material outscorer for most of it and scored 20 goals last season……
Oilers opt for the older players with massive contracts at the tail end of their careers, when maybe all they need to do is look at some of the players they are developing on the farm, with no inflated value, at the beginning of their careers. Case in point, Vincent Desharnais and maybe they have another in Noah Philp. Lavoie is another.
Great to see Foegele with 5Gs in 10GPs.
Hope that silences the haters of which there is far too many imo for such a hard working player.
I don’t see that he’s unliked, it’s that he disappears a lot and makes too many mistakes for his role. Despite hot streaks
Glad he didn’t complete the hatty with that back pass during the one and only delayed penalty yesterday. That was far too close for comfort.
That said, he is playing hard & mostly well. Got no issues with the player, contract a bit rich though.
If only he had scored that empty netter against the Rangers…….
He has played well lately, and been productive, but, damn, that one hurts still (at least for me).
If he had only not decided to give the Rangers the puck uncontested and skate way out of the play on the Rangers 3rd goal.
Yes, we know, he was one of four players that made mistakes on that goal – well, likely made a mistake – we don’t know his exact assignment on that face-off play – we have a pretty good idea but we don’t know.
What a game in San Diego last night.
I posted before that I hope the linemate duo of Lavoie and Tulio would get back on the scoreboard as they had dried up a bit despite remaining to play well. Philp had taken over on the heater.
Well Philp did continue with a couple assists, however, even though they were split on to different lines, what performances by Tulio and Lavoie.
A hatty and an assist from Tulio and he was all over the puck all game – the most noticeable Condor all night long. Yamamoto like tenacity (when Kailer is on), battle, skill and finish.
Lavoie was a bit quiet early but came alive in the 2nd. Started being that bully he’s shown he can be. Four goals, FOUR – all rippers – showing off that shot.
Griffith with four assists and some very nice vision and skill on a few.
What a performance after travelling from Coachella Valley last night.
Really appreciate your updates.
Starting to really like and paying more attention to Tulio because of your fine reports
I’ve seen Tullio good since his draft day; loved that trade of #76 for #100 (Savoie) AND #126 (Tullio). Each individually worthy of the #76 on their own IMO.
Tullio played junior on the team his dad owns, but he is the polar opposite of a silver spoon kid. He is 100% battler. Project him as a good bottom-sixer with staying power if Oilers play their cards right.
I remember many were upset at the time of the draft day trade as they wanted Savoie at 76 – to snag him at 100 and then Tulio with the added pick seemed like a steal at the time and it still does not.
Down arrows for Savoie this season but much of that is attributed to constant injury – he hasn’t been able to gain traction it seems.
Tullio reminds me of Hyman (whose dad owned the GTA minor hockey league he played in I believe). The privilege he grew up with seems to have made him more determined to show he deserves to be there by merit.
He sure doesn’t remind me of Curtis Hamilton.
Hyman’s uncle is also a successful Bay Street lawyer who I’ve worked across of on a number of transactions over the years – until a few years back when I realized he was Zack’s uncle, I didn’t know he was the black sheep of the family (brother and nephew being even “richer”).