There are several Bakersfield Condors forwards who will be pushing for NHL work in the next 18 months. Three of them (Raphael Lavoie, Xavier Bourgault and Noah Philp) appear to be close enough for jazz as the 2022-23 regular season ends and the playoffs begin. What makes these three men different than dozens of others who have come this way before and failed to make the grade?
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Xavier Bourgault was a disappointment. I disagree. His .55 pts-per-game ranks him No. 14 among AHL rookies age 20. Bourgault wasn’t the feature player on right wing (Seth Griffith) and got some power play time but nothing close to (say) Dylan Holloway’s push as a rookie. Just 35 percent of Bourgault’s offense came on the PP, a close match for Kailer Yamamoto. Dylan Holloway saw 54 percent of his offense on the power play.
Who would you Bourgault him to? There are similarities in his game and that of Kailer Yamamoto, but I’d say Yamamoto touched the puck more as an AHL rookie. Bourgault is more darting, more opportunist, but he is more capable of a solo strike. Just my opinion. I love players with a range of skills and Bourgault is such a player.
Did Dylan Holloway impress you? In the AHL, Holloway just gets the puck whenever he wants. I worry about his offense, so seven goals in 12 games was exactly what I was looking for. His 10 points means he finishes shy of a point-per-game, but I think we can safely say middle-six NHL and of course if he gets a chance with one of the big centers, world is his oyster.
Raphael Lavoie is the guy for you, right? I think he did more than anyone in the system (outside the NHL) to further his cause as an NHL prospect. Before Christmas, in 15 games, he scored 3-2-5. Since then, in 46 games, he went 22-18-40 for Bakersfield. He had 160 shots on goal in those 46 games.
You see him playing on a skill line in Edmonton opening night? I don’t, but do see him on the roster. He has a great strength (his shot and his ability to change angles late, along with a quick release) and that dimension should get him at least 25 games before the team risks waivers.
One trick pony! Jarret Stoll had a great shot, but was a centre and could do different things (man the point on the PP, work on PK) so your point is well taken. I think the Oilers value him enough. We’ll see but I don’t think they’ll be in a mood to lose a guy who can help them offensively while making less than $1 million and under control.
Noah Philp? He’s NHL ready. He might take Devin Shore’s job or possibly slide in as No. 4 center if the Oilers don’t sign Nick Bjugstad. He and Lavoie have great chem, perhaps we’ll see a new Bulldog line.
It’s been 23 years and you’re still rambling on about that damnable line! It was great. Daniel Cleary on RW, Michel Riesen on left wing and Brian Swanson in the middle.
Only one of them made it. That’s about right. I don’t expect all of these men to play 500 NHL games or anything.
How many make the opening night lineup for the Oilers? I’ll say two, Lavoie and Philp, plus Holloway.
Way too many! Edmonton will probably run with 13 forwards, so you might be right. Still, even if Ken Holland trades one of them before the season, that has value.
Like Dmitri Samorukov for Klim Kostin? Yes. Probably in reverse, so Raphael Lavoie for a defender who could step right in at the AHL level and represent an early recall, or address an area of need.
It’ll be Lavoie? No, I think Lavoie makes the team.
Three forwards who aren’t established in Holloway, Lavoie and Philp. That’s a lot. It’s a lot of cap savings, too. Three names coming in well under $3 million? Just what the doctor ordered.
How many value deals on young players did Edmonton have this season? Evan Bouchard (although his bonuses drove up the final number), Stuart Skinner, Vincent Desharnais, Philip Broberg, Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin, Dylan Holloway. That’s seven, or about 33 percent of the roster (Edmonton running short for the season).
Wow. How many next year? I count Broberg, Desharnais, McLeod, Kostin, Holloway, plus Lavoie, Philp and Markus Niemelainen. So, eight. Niemelainen probably starts in the minors.
Any defensemen forcing the issue this fall from Bakersfield? I think the forwards will hold sway for the next 12 months, with Max Wanner the next defenseman to push but that’s at least one year away. Cam Dineen is a name to keep in mind.
What about Olivier Rodrigue? I think he’ll get one or more games next season if he continues to play at current levels. He doesn’t need waivers until fall 2024, so this season would be a good chance to get him into some games during the year. For this season, his .912 SP tied veteran Calvin Pickard and ranked him No. 10 in the AHL.
Impressive. It’s even better than that, because the Condors defense was slapped together at times with arsenic and old lace.
How many players did Edmonton use this season who were developed in Bakersfield? There was Bouchard, Skinner, Yamamoto, McLeod, Holloway, Broberg, Desharnais, Puljujarvi, Niemelainen, Benson, Hamblin, Malone and Demers. That’s a baker’s dozen.
Is this team better now at draft and development? Yes, I think so. A lot of it is patience.
Boy, you never blame the player do you. It’s most often the organization, it just is. Edmonton’s stubbornness about its own talent cost them over the first 15+ seasons of this century.
Is this about Marc Pouliot? No, that was injuries. Actually, I think MacT saw a lot of himself in MP, and gave him plenty of opportunity. However, names like Jani Rita, Rob Schremp, Anton Lander, Teemu Hartikanen and others could have given far more, if the opportunity had presented itself.
Name the rookies for 2023-24. Lavoie, Philp make the team. Recalls are Bourgault, Niemelainen, Rodrigue, Phil Kemp and possibly Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie and Carl Berglund late in the year.
Name the AHL contracts that turn into NHL deals over the summer. Dino Kambeitz is my choice, Alex Peters is more likely due to position shortage.
Name the NHL contract exits. Tyler Benson, Jason Demers, Slater Koekkoek, Justin Bailey from the group who spent much of the season in the minors.
But the pre-season games are best used to get the team you’re going into the regular season with in game shape and into game form.
Start as you mean to go.
Tarkus
April 16, 2023 6:37 pm
Summarizing!
Petrov recorded his dozenth assist of the postseason as NB evened the series (see Munny 2.0’s hard-hitting investigation below).
Chiasson picked up an aPPle but it was too little, too late as the Blades fell 5-2 and now trail 2-0 as the series moves to the Deer of Redness. (Lest one fret about the Blades’ fortunes, remember they also dropped their first two games at home vs. Regina and rallied back to win the series.)
Blades pretty much got dominated by the Rebs. they had something like 8 shots after two periods. When they got a shot on net it was one and done. Both goals came with the game out of reach.
Chiasson did have the best chance in the 3rd period prior to Sasky getting on the board with a powerplay strike. His shot surprised the Rebel goalie and a juicy rebound was dropped, but alas, everyone had left the ice on a line change after another pinning in the zone by Red Deer. Which was pretty much par for the course this evening. Going to take a heroic effort for the Blades to win the series from here.
Does anyone know how many Oiler Goals were called back? Hyman must of had 4-5 called back. I also wonder how many Points Connor and Leon lost. It would also be interesting to see how many Woody challenged and what his winning percentage was.
I think I heard Louie and Jack during one of the last few games mention that Hyman had 7 goals disallowed.
Munny 2.0
April 16, 2023 2:41 pm
North Bay wrap it up with an EN goal with 40 secs to play, taming the Colts in a 5-2 victory. Series now even, 1-1.
Been a sleepy series so far for Petrov, despite his sweet red apple today. Highlight of the game was a crushing hit near the end of the 2nd period by a Battalion Dman, stepping up and lowering the boom on a Colt forward who had just push-passed the puck up to neutral ice.
He was nearly knocked cold, lying on his back staring at the rafters for a good while, and helped off by his teammates. He went down the tunnel under his own recognizance, thankfully.
The Battalion Dman was sent straight to the box, but they reviewed the hit and decided it was clean, which it was. The Colts however were lividi and started taking deliberate runs at Battalion stars, including Petrov.
The colour commentator reacted with this hope: “Maybe this will wake Petrov up this series.” And he did look alive… for the rest of the period.
In the 3rd, the coach had the Colts calmed down and focused, but the Battalion came out and largely played shutdown hockey with a one-man forecheck. Not much in the way of scoring chances for them, and got into penalty trouble in the middle of the stanza, allowing one, but largely weathering the storm.
I’ve said this before, but I would really would like to see a Petrov for a full game that looks like a motivated, intense, even desperate player. I was hoping that would come with the advent of the playoffs, but apparently, we’re not living in dangerous times yet
Bag of Pucks
April 16, 2023 1:25 pm
“Boy, you never blame the player do you.”
The interesting thing about this take is it goes to the root of nature vs nurture.
In LT’s view, every prospect has the inherent tools (nature) to be an NHLer and their failure to do so can almost always be blamed on the development environment (nurture).
It’s a bit like saying every slow student is the fault of the teacher, every unproductive employee is the fault of the manager, every bad seed is the fault of the family tree.
Granted, simply being drafted by an NHL team confirms an individual of skill and accomplishment. But to think every single one should make it given the right development approach strikes me as incredibly utopian.
At the highest levels, the margins between success or failure are incredibly thin. But the reality is the physical skills are only one part of the equation. Work ethic, mental aptitude, self discipline, ambition, health, persistence, drive, teamwork, leadership, luck. Making AND staying in the NHL requires all of these variables.
You could ask a new hockey fan to watch Jesse Puljujarvi in warmups and they would likely see nothing out of place. Physically, he presents as an NHL player. But physical skills are not enough. From Bonsignore to Yakupov to Puljuarvi, it was lacking one or more of those other success traits that contributed to their self sabotage.
I’ve always though it interesting how this argument breaks depending on where you sit on the political spectrum. Those on the far left believe no criminals are born that way. They’re all victims of their environment. The extreme right believes the individual is accountable for their actions thus their affinity for the death penalty.
Myself I’m a centrist that falls slightly left of center, but having raised two boys in an identical environment that are night and day different in their personalities and approach to life, I personally believe the nature impact is highly overrated on a micro (not macro) level. Even my sons are amazed how different they are.
I do believe a utopian view makes for a happier person. It just strikes me as unrealistic from a practical application perspective.
In the piece, I expressly mentioned Marc Pouliot as being on the player. I think your framing of the issue, while entertaining, misses the mark and doesn’t acknowledge the organizational missteps that populate this team’s history.
“Most often” seemed like key language to me. Definitely difficult to know for sure when we’re not in the room and can’t assess the individual fully.
The one development criticism that I tend to agree with is bad teams fail to draft or acquire players with a specific role in mind. Bad orgs are constantly trying to hammer square pegs into round holes imo. The Oilers pro scouts used to do this all the time. Projecting Ference as a top pairing D, not seeing Cogliano as a potential defensive C, not trading for Corey Perry, etc.
In regard to Puljujarvi specifically, as I think that is the name that has many on the board at cross purposes, I followed the verbal closely during his first training camp. It became clear to me that Todd McLellan didn’t think he was ready and that Chiarelli had promised he would be and the roster counted on it. It was a repeat of the Griffin Reinhart disconnect between McLelland and Chiarelli in 2015 fall.
The thing both situations had in common? Edmonton didn’t need Reinhart because they had Nurse. And the Oilers didn’t need Puljujarvi becaause they had Kris Versteeg. Chiarelli let him walk, the die was cast.
I don’t see that as a political left or right thing, but rather a matter of being stubborn on a player(s).
One of the classic examples at the moment is former 1OV Arizona Coyotes QB Kyler Murray. Talent wise, he has the tools to be a Top 5 QB. However, when they renegotiated his contract, they had to write in a clause to get him to commit to a minimum number of hours for film study. The reason being he much prefers playing video games to studying film!!!
Meanwhile Tom Brady was drafted 199th overall, was deemed an average athlete predraft, and studied film like a Head Coach.
Once they hit the pros, it’s the guys who study and work hard that elevate. Talent isn’t enough anymore when everyone has talent.
I myself view Jesse as a loveable gentle giant. If I had to pick one personality trait that Jesse and I believe is vital if you want to be a productive player in the NHL is his lack of competetitiveness. Tkachuk looks like he’s super competitive in everything he does and on the extreme other side you have Jesse. Tkachuk is 6th in league wide scoring with 109 points, Jesse sadly is 466 place with 16pts. Just because: Yamamoto is in 339 place. Please tell me again with the wide open Hockey that’s being played how this player is a top 6 winger?
I want to speak to the comment “a slow student is the fault of the teacher” comment. Certainly there are a range of types of brains, but its not about whos fault it is, and more about how can we get that “slow brain” (an idea that we could spend a lot of time unpacking – specifically the negative value you just attached to it, but also the idea that a slow processing speed equates to not being able to think quickly in a situation, also slow processers often seem to me to learn more deeply, really looking at things from all angles) to learn the ideas we want that person to learn. Teacher needs to adapt to get most out of kids that is possible.
Fully agree that the teacher needs to adapt to the student. Suspect this is a challenge with large class sizes. By slow, I’m more referring to the students we all know that fall behind the class cos they’re not doing the work or they miss a fundamental concept early and are constantly playing catchup as a result.
This is a fantastic comment. My son is 13 and has “slow processing”.
From an IQ perspective, he’s one of the smartest in his class. But in a general conversational format, he lags behind his peers. Processing real world data in real time is a challenge, but when he learns something, he understands it better than almost anyone else.
It’s a challenge, but people with slow processing shouldn’t be written off so quickly. They may not thrive in a fast-thinking environment, but they can make better, more thoughtful decisions than most of us.
With respect to Bourgault, IMO, the best arrow has been a healthy season. Shows that there is no chronic nature to his injury issues, and really he has lost a lot of development at a young age, which is never a good thing. not every player gets that time back in terms of gaining skill. I believe that Benson was affected in this way, for eg.
Otherwise, he seems to be able to carry his main Junior skill to the AHL, and that’s finding seams and using quickness. Some shiftiness and deception too. I think the org would like to see him gain in strength, although I do like his stability on his skates. There’s more there though, and he could use adding half a step. But, IMO, out of the crop of recent high pick forwards, he has the best hockey sense. Patience and letting his body catch up to his brain I think is the best play here. I think I’d see how he looks by next Xmas and then start thinking about NHL timelines.
Really nice player and I expect him to out-perform his draft slot in the long run.
I am very reluctant to get too excited about prospects. Every fan base in every NHL city trumpets their prospect pool. ( in the city I live in fans still mumble about Sami Niku and Kristian Vesalainen)
Further, I am feeling the sting of both JP and to a lesser extent Yamamoto failing to reach what I anticipated from them as prospects.
However, I find both Dylan Holloway and XB to be clear NHL players.
As LT rightly mentions, Holloway has just to much raw ability. The only question is the degree to which he will convert that into NHL goal scoring. ( I lean towards 2nd line scoring rates with time )
XB’s hockey IQ is so above average and so evident -I almost find it impossible, to picture him not having some measure of success with our core players. ( and I am certainly not built this way)
Time will tell – but I fully endorse your view he will out do his draft slot.
€√¥£€^$
April 16, 2023 12:40 pm
I wanted to post about Oli Rodrigue several weeks ago, but couldn’t find the time. Hopefully he gets in to an NHL game or 2 next season.
After spending most of last year in the ECHL last season, he played mostly back-up in Bakersfield this season. Last year he finished off his AHL stint on a 4 game win streak, going 4-0 with a 0.919 save percentage and a 2.25 GAA. For context, these games were all played in January (2022) and were home and home vs cellar dwelling San Diego and Tucson.
His AHL totals for 2021-22 end up: 13 GP 6-5-2 0.886 3.09. So that winning stretch really gave his final numbers a boost. All good arrows nonetheless and good on the organization for doing right by the player’s’ development. The team last season had Skinner as the top dog, with Konovalov as the primary back-up. Stalock also got into 5 games and Fanti got 1 game.
This season Oli started out like this: 8 GP 4-4-0 0.924 2.52
Pickard: 7 GP 4-2-1 0.897 3.31
Pickard got injured in November and returned in January, so Rodrigue carried the load, playing 11 games, while Fanti struggled in his 8 games going: 0-5-1 0.884 3.71. Rodrigue:
4-9-0 0.897 3.32.
When Pickard returned in early January, he played the vast majority of the games and this where Chaulk frustrated me. Here is a breakdown, by month, of games played by each player. Pickard’s is the first number:
Oct 4/2, Nov 4/7, Dec 0/8, Jan 3/8, Feb 9/2, Mar 9/4, Apr 4/3.
Rodrique did hit a rough patch in the middle of the season for sure, but at the end of the season both goalies played well and the Condors finished strong, despite the often patchwork DCorps. Here are their results in their last 5 games:
CP 4-1-0 0.945 1.60 2 shutouts
OR 4-1-0 0.955 1.41 no shutouts
This team will give whoever they play difficulty and Oli is trending up. This organization finally has depth in the goaltending position!
To pick up where I left off, Pickard came back on 4 January and from 10 Jan to 18 March Oli played exactly 7 games. His record in these games: 3-3-1 0.869 3.28
Pickard played in 23 games. He went: 14-7-1 0.922 2.65
I do not know much about him but I do know his grandfather marches around Chicoutimi in an Oilers jacket telling everyone he meets his grandson is an Edmonton Oiler. That’s enough for me!
Primetime
April 16, 2023 12:22 pm
I don’t think there is anyway they sign Bjugstad back unless he takes a minimum contract. Philp will play the role of cheap bottom 6, tall, lanky RHC for most of the year. If need be they will supplement at the deadline again to grab someone like Bjugstad for cheap….maybe even Bjugstad himself again!
Why would they pin their hopes on magic beans, instead of counting on proven NHL-calibre talent? That’s one of the strategies that sunk the DoD teams in perpetuity.
The realistic play is Holland gets Bjug to sign a team friendly deal in order to either or both pump his stats / have a chance to win, and put Philp in a position to earn/take a job by camp/TDL. Or, as you say, finds a similar player for nearly league minimum as his replacement.
Holland’s MO is to sign a bunch of NHL vets to one year deals and require the AHL prospects to win their spot on the team from one of those vets. I’m not sure who those vets will be but I feel confident that every prospect in the AHL, including Holloway, will have to take someone’s job to get into the team. Holland’s track record in this respect is crystal clear.
Munny 2.0
April 16, 2023 12:21 pm
Oilers are the first team since the 80-81 Isles to lead the League in both powerplay markers and shorthanded goals. Been done a bunch of times, but most are from the Original Six era.
Ah had thought Wayne & Co. had managed it – I remembered them racking up shorties on top of setting GF records.
Guess not.
Optimism is like heroin
April 16, 2023 12:18 pm
Hmmmmm, prospect talk brings my mind to D Ryan. We have spoken about loyalty and treating people right. With his path and hockey IQ I would like to see him resigned to a 2 year x 1 million. Big thing is to be honest with him as he would slide down to take the Devin shore spot as 13th forward in the first year and then the 2nd year would likely be in the A as a mentor. After that he should be offered an assistant coach spot for Bakersfield. Good on draws, good pk, good positionally and an inspiration for meandering prospects.
OriginalPouzar
April 16, 2023 11:11 am
Good timing given the substance of the blog, Oilers re-signed Cam Dineen to a one-year, 2-way deal at league min for NHL time.
Good signing and it wasn’t a lock given he was a pending UFA I believe.
He is a plus offensive d-man at the AHL level. Don’t think he’s much more that deep depth for the NHL but such D depth has been shallowed recently.
Helps take the sting out of moving Kesselring a bit (although Kesselring is clearly the higher potential prospect and he had a good run down the stretch for the Yotes – likely plays for them every day next season).
The #LetsGoOilers re-signed pending group 6 UFA 24 y/o LD Cam Dineen to 1 year deal NHL 775K Minors 210K Guaranteed 250K Was acquired from #Yotes in Bjugstad trade. 47P in 69 AHL GP
If Philp and Lavoie can both crack the roster out of camp that definitely gives Holland some wiggle room.
I do expect two of Yamomoto, Kulak or Foegele moved this summer. I suspect they are all available for draft picks. All good players but all expendable with money as tight as it is.
If Bouchard’s contract comes up cheap, most likely doubles the cost pain down the road.
None of the 3 players are being tossed away, it’s tough decisions in a cap world. The 2-4mil players are luxuries not always affordable when you’ve gathered such top end talent that you have to pay to keep together.
For example, I’d move Yams or Foegele to keep Bugstud in the fold.
I do expect two of Yamomoto, Kulak or Foegele moved this summer.
You’re usually pretty up on the cap stuff. Just curious where you expect the money to be spent if two of those players are going out and you expect Bouchard to come in under $3M.
My guesses at next year have had Bouchard at $3M and only really needing to move one of the three (though Bouchard did eat up an extra $425k there on Thursday night).
I like to start with the 12 core pieces on a team.
Up front the Oilers have McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Hyman and Kane who are clearly part of the top seven regardless of whether you place Nuge at 3C or on the wing. Two open spots. McLeod could make it one open spot as the 3C. I like his chances personally but it is still not written in stone.
On the back end I see all four spots taken with Nurse, Ekholm, Bouchard and Ceci. It is a bit unusual in that the two lefties are stronger than the two righties but it kind of works. Ceci would probably slot at 2RD in a perfect world as would Bouchard so there is a redundancy there.
Kulak is a bit of a luxury at 3LD given his cap hit as are Foegele and Yamamoto for what they bring and where they slot. The high end contracts don’t really leave room for overpays lower in the batting order so If I am looking for upgrades this is where I have to find the money.
I expect Campbell to revert to form as a strong high end goalie with consistency issues next year and Skinner exceeded my expectations so I am happy in goal.
================
So if I am Holland I am looking down my right side to see if I can find improvement.
Here is the board as I have it at the moment going into next season.
Nuge – McDavid – Hyman
Kane – Draisaitl – ???
Holloway – McLeod – ???
Bjugstad, Janmark, Philp, Lavoie, Kostin pencilled in depending on money and/or opportunity but still in flux for various reasons. I expect 4 of them to be on the opening night roster.
The back end has seven guys ready to go but if money is needed Kulak’s status as a luxury becomes problematic. I know things can change but I don’t see Broberg as somebody Holland is willing to trade.
So there is a hole at 2RW and a slight weakness at 1RD. Those are where I am shopping and looking around at this summer to see if anybody pops loose.
Teams that win Stanley tend to see a spike in interest for their UFA’s driving up cap hits that the Oil cannot afford to match. Losing tends to expose weaknesses that the GM tries to fix during the summer so all of this is tentative but that is how it looks to me at the moment. I think Holland wants to try and add one more weapon in one of those two spots.
Yeah that makes a lot of sense, and I largely agree.
To this point I’ve mostly been looking at it from the perspective of what has to happen rather than what will happen. IE – one of the three has to be traded, while it could very well end up being more than one of them (with an incumbent RD added to the group of three if the target ends up being a 1RD).
On 2RW, if Yamamoto is filling that slot effectively then his salary isn’t a luxury. Only if he’s failing to (as he has for much of this year) or playing lower in the order. I think this is a big playoff for him. If 2RW is a weak spot through the playoffs though there’s no question he’s vulnerable. If he does end up being effective in a top 6 spot and posts some offense then it may be enough that Holland isn’t prioritizing 2RW for an upgrade.
And on Kulak, agree that $2.75M is a luxury for a 3LD. For me it’s more about Broberg though. Broberg has to play full time next year IMO (and agree Holland isn’t going to trade him). You can say Kulak will be 7D (a number of posters have said that) but it’s just not true. He won’t be the 7D if he’s still an Oiler.
So I think Kulak is probably the most likely of the three obviously exits, because he is a luxury in his role, and he’s blocking Broberg, AND they need to shed money somewhere even without adding anything.
Yeah, I think a lot rides on what comes available as well. If nothing better presents then we could be looking at Lavoie & Philp with Shore & Ryan moving on.
As Holland likes to say it isn’t like there is a store you can go to where 2RW players are available to whoever needs one.
Ekholm was really perfect timing. And for sure what’s available will dictate a lot of what happens.
As an aside, I have a hard time seeing both Lavoie and Philip (and Holloway) in the lineup regularly next year. Granted I haven’t been watching them play in Bakersfield so I may be underestimating, but it seems like a bit too much to ask from here.
If 2 of them move then there is money to go longer on Bouch, say 5×5. I want to see whoever they can lock up for a few years to be done this off season. This is the last of the flattish cap. Having the core signed at appropriate rates for this cap will pay dividends for years. If If bouch is bridged at 3×2 then we end up paying a contract with a 7 likely and we begin the Nurse contract drama all over. Holland has already done this with Kane, RNH and Hyman while adding Ekholm into a group of players that are seriously underpaid.
I disagree that 2 of the 3 need to be moved, I’ve done the math dozens of times and in order to bring back essentially the current roster they only need to move 1 of the 3.
– Kulak is superfluous to the roster next year, Broberg is ready and Kulak is too good to sit in the press box.
– I don’t see where Edmonton could replace Foegele’s production at a similar or lower cap hit, so I think he stays. Possibly Holloway can on his ELC, but Holland can’t know that going into the summer so he can’t afford to move Foegele.
– That leaves Yamamoto. I’m torn on the player – love him when he’s healthy and productive, but we haven’t seen a lot of that this year. I’m interested to see what Holland does here, if anything.
In conclusion I think Kulak is the overwhelmingly obvious candidate to create the cap space required to re-sign Bouchard and McLeod. I think others (Yamamoto, Ceci) only get moved for an upgrade at the same position, and I think Foegele stays.
jp
April 16, 2023 11:00 am
Would folks be surprised to learn the Oilers had the best special teams in the NHL this season?
Everyone knows the PP is all-world, but the PK struggled badly for much of the year (for the full season the PK was 21st in GA/60).
The Oilers scored SH goals though, and that PP was really good.
Here is the net special teams goal differential for NHL playoff teams (ie – PP goals minus PK goals against, subtracting SH goals on both sides):
1) EDM +36
2) DAL +29
3) BOS +25
4) NYR +20
4) TOR +20
6) MIN +19
7) CAR +15
8) TBL +14
9) COL +13
10) WPG +12
(this is the top 10 in the NHL, after this some non-playoff teams show up)
12) NJD +10
16) VGK +5
18) LAK +1
21) NYI -5
23) FLA -9
24) SEA -10
The Oilers PK goal differential (accounting for SH goals) was #16 in the league vs. their GA/60 being 20th.
The Oilers were good, not great at 5v5 on the whole season (+23, which was 12th in the league, with a positive differential also in other even strength situations).
So overall the team was ‘good’ at 5v5, while being elite on special teams (#1 on the PP and #16 on the PK). Everything improved in the 2nd half as well.
The 2nd half (last 41 games for everyone) special teams goal differential for playoff teams:
1) EDM +24
2) CAR +16
3) DAL +14
4) LAK +12
4) MIN +12
6) COL +11
7) NYR +10
7) TOR +10
9) NJD +8
10) BOS +6
13) SEA +4
14) TBL +3
15) FLA +2
18) WPG -1
21) NYI -3
24) VGK -7
The Oilers PK goal differential was #7 in the league in the 2nd half (-13 goals). Their GA/60 was improved but still #17 in the league.
And as I mentioned the other day though, game #1 of the last 41 for the Oilers was the 6-3 January loss to the Kings where they allowed 4 PK goals against. So in the last 40 games the Oilers GA/60 improves to 12th and their PK goal differential improves to -9 goals, #2 in the league. And the total (PP+PK) special teams goal differential improves to +28.
This was coupled with a big improvement in 5v5 results. The Oilers were +30 at 5v5 in the 2nd half (41 games), which was #2 in the league to Boston.
I did not realize we were #2 in the league, sustained over a half-season. This is a BIG up arrow, seeing as how our 5v5 numbers appeared to be ‘just OK’.
Combined with the fact that we are a clear #2 in regulation wins, we stack up pretty well against anybody in the West, and really anybody in the league besides Boston.
Hey JP, thanks for bringing those stats, very interesting. Also timely as a couple of days ago we were discussing 5v5 scoring, and I had asked ‘against who’?
I was serious so I went through the last 10 games and got all scoring for the top 6 which has been a stable group for the most part just to see what happened
EVG – Even strength goal, PPG – Power play goal, EVA – Even strength assist. Oiler’s score first
Mar 25 3-4 OT VGK
EVG 1 PPG 1 EVA 3
Only 1 EVG and they go to OT and lose
Mar 27 5-4 OT Arizona
EVG 1 PPG 1 EVA 0
Again 1 EVG and go to OT
Mar 28 7-4 VGK
EVG 2 PPG 2 EVA 3
A more open game, top 6 produce and win walking away
Mar 30 2-0 LA
EVG 1 PPG 0 EA 2
1 EVG and played tight defensively. Was enough this game
Apr 1 6-0 Ducks
EVG 3 PPG 1 EVA 3
Racked them up against a weak team
Apr 4 3-1 LA
EVG 0 PPG 2 EVA 0
No even strength production so a tight game, they played tight enough to win
Apr 5 3-1 Ducks
EVG 0 PPG 0 EVA 0
No production and a close game against a weak team, empty netter in the 3
Apr 8 6-1 SJ
EVG 4 PPG 0 EVA 4
Racked them up against a weak team
Apr 11 2-1 OT Avs
EVG 0 PPG 0 EVA 0
No even production and saved by Skinner and a clever CMD word to Bouch about using a fake
Apr 13 5-2 SJ
EVG 1 PPG 1 EVA 3
Again put more production up against a weak team
So 13 EVG in 10 games. 9 of them against the non playoff teams, 4 against playoff teams and 2 we will face. I feel this aligns with what I thought I was seeing.
The PP was shut out in 4 of 10 games, including one game each against The Avs and LA in which they managed 1 EVG in total. That is relying way too much on good fortune. Great teams take as much luck out if the game as possible, even if luck is still needed
The PP is a big thing and a part of scoring, but in hard fought games it can get skunked, it’s not a given, and we saw it unable to score in key moments last playoffs, even 5-3
To me this will be the key to the Cup. If they can score consistently and enough 5v5 (there are always tight games, but few win the Cup squeaking out wins all the way through) I don’t see anyone stopping them
To me it’s about coaching. The offense has had trouble manifesting against certain types of defense, particularly teams that take the lanes around their net away – plug it up. I think there needs to be some offensive strategy applied and not just relying on the Duo to do great things
That can be shut down as we have seen the last 10 games. It will take the 4 wingers supporting the Duo enough either by getting in position through mud to be set up, or getting the puck to Connor and Leon in a good enough place to finish. Don’t get pushed to the perimeter and rely on banging in the crease and jamming from sides. You do that and set also shots up
I am very hopeful. Let the filthy Kings have it boys!
I believe the ‘against who’ question was about Draisaitl and his line getting scored on lots lately. And I answered it (IIRC Draisaitl was 6-3 goals in the last 8 games, and 2-1 in games against playoff teams – so outscoring at a 2:1 rate in both cases, but more events against non-playoff teams).
From the top 6 scoring numbers you’ve posted here, I’m seeing:
5 games against playoff teams 5EVG 5PPG 8EVA
5 games against non-playoff teams 9EVG 3PPG 10EVA
So more even strength production against the weak teams, as you’d expect. More PP production against the playoff teams though. And they still went 4-0-1 against the playoff teams.
No question the PP won’t score every game, same with 5v5, and same with the top 6. I think it’s key that the team has shown the ability recently to lock it down the other way and win low scoring games even when they don’t post offense.
For me that’s the single biggest thing, when added to the offense (wherever it’s coming from).
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
April 16, 2023 10:41 am
LT with a great post/thought experiment today. This is sort of what I was getting at with my pie in the sky expectation list the other day. LT is much more concise and to the point.
Colorado was topped out last year, all in, lost pieces this year. Yes still a phenomenal team and could have staying power yes. But it’s external now, internally they’ve topped out. Ditto with Pitts, Tampa, Boston, Toronto etc.
There are several Oilers players who could reasonably be expected to step forward and fill NHL roles over the next three seasons. Not necessarily Nuge level pops but you know, consistent, 82 game efforts, maintaining a scratch to ahead GF/GA at 5v5. Still a growth team in that regard.
If we look at the age curves we might not see fully “peak” Oilers for another two seasons. Or perhaps we’re at Peak 1 now and it just roles into Peak 2, together lasting a decade or so? Either way it’s fun that they’ve arrived early, I wasn’t expecting the window to fully open until next year and I still think there is a lot of room to run for the franchise in the years to come.
The hope was always to stretch the window beyond the current McDrai contracts, and that was always going to require a) Home grown value contracts; b) Locking down farmhand standouts at value through their second contracts.
The second point is debatable (you could try to bridge then replenish, or return to the well), but imo any second coming a la Pittsburg will depend on retaining players like Bouch at value. Otherwise when it comes time for Edmonton’s own Kane/Toews re-signing, Oilers will suffer the same fate as CHI as a lopsided roster that can’t compete.
buck yoakam
April 16, 2023 10:40 am
My pasani prediction…warren foegele…
DevilsLettuce
April 16, 2023 10:02 am
All I can think about is a Leon Draisaitl with 2 working legs absolutely laying waste to the scum that are the LA Kings.
The jibberish coming out of LA “got to eliminate McDavid” Forgetting about Dre should be sacrilege on the west coast, they’re going to need a Dr after this affair.
Alot of blood thirsty fans there too. Been perusing a Kings blog while bored at work. Seen the word Charmin soft come up lots but more people were posting that seeing McD with a broken leg will be the real win. Gross IMO.
Folks seem to be recalling last years team and not this year. This version has more forward depth and scoring prowess.
L.A. will have trouble getting the matchup or sustained pressure they’ll need.
Oilers just need to keep their cool and stick to the plan.
jp
April 16, 2023 9:51 am
He and Pickard weren’t all that far off from splitting when all was said and done – 38 games for Pickard, 29 for Rodrigue (I know it wasn’t as even when Pickard was healthy/available).
Rodrigue also struggled when he was the go-to both this season and last, so taking it slow and steady with him may not be a bad thing.
The season was definitely a positive arrow for Rodrigue regardless.
BornInAGretzkyJersey
April 16, 2023 9:47 am
Playing in the playoffs is development.
My guess is the teams wanted Pickard up to speed should he get the call if one of the tenders in EDM were out for any reason.
Either way, happy to see Rodrigue is arrows up. I was skeptical when they moved up to draft him after having just done the same thing at the draft prior with Skinner.
OriginalPouzar
April 16, 2023 9:37 am
Name the rookies for 2023-24. Lavoie, Philp make the team. Recalls are Bourgault, Niemelainen, Rodrigue, Phil Kemp and possibly Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie and Carl Berglund late in the year.
That would be coming from a long ways away for Savoie and Berglund. Tough rookie year for Savoie with injuries and ability to really gain traction. I did anticipate a very tough start for him with a better second half but injuries didn’t allow for that better second half.
I don’t know about Berglund – he may be starting next season in Fort Wayne……
Name the AHL contracts that turn into NHL deals over the summer. Dino Kambeitz is my choice, Alex Peters is more likely due to position shortage.
I’m not so sure about Kambeitz but, ya, I think Alex Peters gets the 2-way NHL deal. I don’t know if he ever sees an NHL game but I also said that about Vinny D. and, well, I was way off on that – and I had watched him play for years.
OriginalPouzar
April 16, 2023 9:32 am
Noah Philp? He’s NHL ready. He might take Devin Shore’s job or possibly slide in as No. 4 center if the Oilers don’t sign Nick Bjugstad. He and Lavoie have great chem, perhaps we’ll see a new Bulldog line.
For me, I think Noah Philp is just as “NHL ready” as Lavoie and maybe even more as I think his mature 2-way game will translate and he’s simply bigger, stronger, quicker and more skilled than one realizes – when you watch him nightly, it becomes apparent.
As I keep saying, the Oilers can’t have non-established rookies pencilled in to roster spots going in to camp – they have to beat out an established player and take their job but, at the same time, with $7.65MM of cap space and 15 players on the roster (or add Holloway so 16 players and $6.7MM of cap space heading in to the off-season), I’m not sure there is money to bring both Bjugstad and Ryan back. Bjugstad could be $2MM plus if he has a good playoffs.
The one thing with Ryan – he could take a league min base and, say, a $500K performance bonus for 15 games essentially locking him in to $1.25MM but only $750K on the cap (a bonus overage for the following season if they don’t have cap room but they might if they don’t get back in to LTIR all season long).
I suppose adding a bonus to Ryan’s contract could make some sense, but I don’t see why he’d be getting quite $1.25M from the Oilers next season (if it were a guaranteed to vest bonus like you’re suggesting).
He signed for $1.25M two years ago. He’s quite useful, but he’s also a 36-year old 4th liner.
I agree he’s not likely to sign at league minimum ($775k next year), but I don’t see $1.25M either.
We’ll see, but I’d expect something more like $900k or $1.0M. Maybe on a 2 year deal, with the possibility of retirement if he falls off after year 1.
This isn’t going to be as big of a deal as folks are fearing.
I think Bouchard is in a curious spot. Yes he filled in exceptionally well for Barrie on the PP (who else could?). Yes his play picked up with a Force of a defensive partner (who else’s play could improve?)
The emergence of Vinny creates an issue for Evan. With Broberg and the AHLers pushing they don’t “need” Bouch to start the year. They have enough playmakers now – Nurse, Ekholm and Broberg, to patch together on the PP. If someone pops during that time all of a sudden your star fades.
If I’m Bouchard I’m not sure I take a long term at Dobson/Andersen money. I’d bet on myself and shoot for Morrissey. If he goes one or two seasons in this deal, He’d see what Broberg and Vinny got for their troubles. Ceci’s money is freed up in two seasons. There will be a Cap pop etc.
I have a feeling Kenny is going to squeeze him for a one year. One year at $2 million, just above his bonus pool from this year. Or maybe 2x$3.1, like Yamo got for his 3rd deal. They’ll dangle playing with Ekholm and that’s a helluva way to bet on yourself.
Bouchard’s agent will want a one year to get to arbitration I would think. Holland holds out for 2 years at something less than $3M. As you say there should be a pop on the cap for his 3rd deal. This is the last time Holland has the hammer and I expect him to use it.
No way in hell. He’s coming off back to back $900k/year deals and is good for Ryan level production. At 31 into next season give him $1.25×2, maybe, maybe, $1.5×2. He made good money in his second contract, he’s playing for the game and Glory at this point.
I’m not sure Ryan comes back. I think he hangs it up if they win it all.
Janmark could come back for same contract and cost.
This would be close to my guess for Bjugstad as well.
Is there still such a thing as a playing coach in the AHL? That might be something that would work for both Ryan and the team. Give him an NHL contract that can be buried & let him mentor the kids in Bakersfield while dipping his toes in what it is like to coach.
I was so thrilled that the Condors wound up with a first round matchup in Abbotsford, given I’m walking distance from the arena. Last year the Bake also played the Canucks but with home ice advantage, which in the first round is all three games of a best-of-three series. So I was excited to finally go support the farm team in enemy territory… until I realized they play at 7pm local time on Wed, Fri and Sun. I feel like there’s something else important happening around those times. Sheesh! What’s a guy to do.
Tarkus
April 16, 2023 8:46 am
Prospectish!
Again a tandem of NA amateurs prospects this day, but a different pair from yesternight.
Despite having home ice, North Bay and Saskatoon dropped their respective series openers on Friday. A chance at redemption is theirs in matinee action.
Petrov has yet to light the lamp these playoffs but has 11 assists in 7 GP to lead his team in scoring. Meanwhile, Chiasson has 3+1 in 8 GP thus far.
North Bay (Petrov) @ noon
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 4 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Winfield time.
Shamus23
April 16, 2023 8:37 am
Thinking that opening game tom night is going to be a rough and tumble affair. I think we definitely have the edge in size, toughness and definitely speed now. LA will not push us around. They do have a couple of shit disturbers who are a bit greasier in Lizotte, Danault ( who loves to slash and whack ) and the worst in my opinion who is a mouth piece is Kempe ( who I never really noticed until this year watching him live. He is nasty ) . But the Oil have guys to neutralize these jerks for sure.
Let’s hope the refs call a good game ?
This game is 100% up to how well the Oilers enter the contest. Championship teams dictate play. And it never hurt the Oilers when for example Anderson got into a physical war with Billy Smith, or Mark Messier gave one of his patented exhibitions of non scoring excellence.
The Kings are a good team but Oilers know them well and are superior in practically every metric. To start the playoffs they’re jolly well near perfect to play the first villains. The Jets play good old fashioned honest hockey and therefore could possibly upset these snowflakes.
This is why I hope to goodness Toronto doesn’t get to the finals. Playing against the Leafs in a finals would probably overwhelm this team.
Boston on the other hand would be perfect. Everyone would expect Bruins to win and so Oilers simply go into game 1 and 2 and destroy the 30 year old star players with blazing speed….and I’ve yet to see an eastern team other than Tampa be able or willing to stand toe to toe with them so forget about the “tough” Bruins.
That said, Boston has a model organization and has got to be one of the top 5 hockey teams to play for in the NHL. And for a hockey purist Edmonton with a contending team is certainly one of the top NHL cities in my humble opinion.
It’ll be interesting to see who they have on the 3rd pair. Now that Anderson is back and Edler appears to be healthy their 3rd pair will feature only 2/3 of Drurzi, Edler and Walker. Could be one less dirtbag in the lineup.
Hope Rodrigue gets 3 or 4 exhibition games next season.
Seems like he held the forts most nights when the Oilers had all their callups.
Maybe 1 game? Some inter-squad matches, probably.
But the pre-season games are best used to get the team you’re going into the regular season with in game shape and into game form.
Start as you mean to go.
Summarizing!
Petrov recorded his dozenth assist of the postseason as NB evened the series (see Munny 2.0’s hard-hitting investigation below).
Chiasson picked up an aPPle but it was too little, too late as the Blades fell 5-2 and now trail 2-0 as the series moves to the Deer of Redness. (Lest one fret about the Blades’ fortunes, remember they also dropped their first two games at home vs. Regina and rallied back to win the series.)
Prospecting takes a break until Tuesday.
Blades pretty much got dominated by the Rebs. they had something like 8 shots after two periods. When they got a shot on net it was one and done. Both goals came with the game out of reach.
Chiasson did have the best chance in the 3rd period prior to Sasky getting on the board with a powerplay strike. His shot surprised the Rebel goalie and a juicy rebound was dropped, but alas, everyone had left the ice on a line change after another pinning in the zone by Red Deer. Which was pretty much par for the course this evening. Going to take a heroic effort for the Blades to win the series from here.
Vilardi skating with the Kings today…no Fiala.
https://lakingsinsider.com/2023/04/16/practice-4-16-vilardi-joins-full-group-g1-goalie-thoughts-best-defending-best-laki-bracket-challegne/
Is there an AHL equivalent of the Norris trophy, and did Rafferty win it this year?
Eddie Shore Award, it’s given out annually but hasn’t been this year.
https://ahlhalloffame.com/eddie-shore-award
A bunch of Oilers farmhands won it over the years
I don’t think an Oiler has ever won the Norris.
Lots of angst over never receiving the Calder, but have the Oilers never had a Norris-worthy defenseman?
Other than Jultz.
Paul Coffey won twice as an Oiler (and a 3rd time as a Red Wing).
Rafferty had a nice season with 51 points in 72 games.
Would have been the second leading on the Condors.
Are you taking the Kings or the Oilers in this series?
Oilers in 6.
I have them in 5, but that’s partially emotional.
Kings are no pushovers. It can also go to a game 7.
I don’t like when you use your kiss of death this way.
Ryan should know better.
Nooooooooooooooooooo!
I always think it is good if a team turns over 20% of it pre deadline team for the start of next year.
so that is 4/5 players on a 23 player roster.
in
Ekholm, Bjugstad, Holloway, Lavoie, Philp
out
Shore, Ryan and one other
Kulak?
“Boy, you never blame the player do you?”
ha! I felt convicted with that line 😉
Does anyone know how many Oiler Goals were called back? Hyman must of had 4-5 called back. I also wonder how many Points Connor and Leon lost. It would also be interesting to see how many Woody challenged and what his winning percentage was.
I think I heard Louie and Jack during one of the last few games mention that Hyman had 7 goals disallowed.
North Bay wrap it up with an EN goal with 40 secs to play, taming the Colts in a 5-2 victory. Series now even, 1-1.
Been a sleepy series so far for Petrov, despite his sweet red apple today. Highlight of the game was a crushing hit near the end of the 2nd period by a Battalion Dman, stepping up and lowering the boom on a Colt forward who had just push-passed the puck up to neutral ice.
He was nearly knocked cold, lying on his back staring at the rafters for a good while, and helped off by his teammates. He went down the tunnel under his own recognizance, thankfully.
The Battalion Dman was sent straight to the box, but they reviewed the hit and decided it was clean, which it was. The Colts however were lividi and started taking deliberate runs at Battalion stars, including Petrov.
The colour commentator reacted with this hope: “Maybe this will wake Petrov up this series.” And he did look alive… for the rest of the period.
In the 3rd, the coach had the Colts calmed down and focused, but the Battalion came out and largely played shutdown hockey with a one-man forecheck. Not much in the way of scoring chances for them, and got into penalty trouble in the middle of the stanza, allowing one, but largely weathering the storm.
I’ve said this before, but I would really would like to see a Petrov for a full game that looks like a motivated, intense, even desperate player. I was hoping that would come with the advent of the playoffs, but apparently, we’re not living in dangerous times yet
“Boy, you never blame the player do you.”
The interesting thing about this take is it goes to the root of nature vs nurture.
In LT’s view, every prospect has the inherent tools (nature) to be an NHLer and their failure to do so can almost always be blamed on the development environment (nurture).
It’s a bit like saying every slow student is the fault of the teacher, every unproductive employee is the fault of the manager, every bad seed is the fault of the family tree.
Granted, simply being drafted by an NHL team confirms an individual of skill and accomplishment. But to think every single one should make it given the right development approach strikes me as incredibly utopian.
At the highest levels, the margins between success or failure are incredibly thin. But the reality is the physical skills are only one part of the equation. Work ethic, mental aptitude, self discipline, ambition, health, persistence, drive, teamwork, leadership, luck. Making AND staying in the NHL requires all of these variables.
You could ask a new hockey fan to watch Jesse Puljujarvi in warmups and they would likely see nothing out of place. Physically, he presents as an NHL player. But physical skills are not enough. From Bonsignore to Yakupov to Puljuarvi, it was lacking one or more of those other success traits that contributed to their self sabotage.
I’ve always though it interesting how this argument breaks depending on where you sit on the political spectrum. Those on the far left believe no criminals are born that way. They’re all victims of their environment. The extreme right believes the individual is accountable for their actions thus their affinity for the death penalty.
Myself I’m a centrist that falls slightly left of center, but having raised two boys in an identical environment that are night and day different in their personalities and approach to life, I personally believe the nature impact is highly overrated on a micro (not macro) level. Even my sons are amazed how different they are.
I do believe a utopian view makes for a happier person. It just strikes me as unrealistic from a practical application perspective.
In the piece, I expressly mentioned Marc Pouliot as being on the player. I think your framing of the issue, while entertaining, misses the mark and doesn’t acknowledge the organizational missteps that populate this team’s history.
It’s a great post though. I enjoyed it.
“Most often” seemed like key language to me. Definitely difficult to know for sure when we’re not in the room and can’t assess the individual fully.
The one development criticism that I tend to agree with is bad teams fail to draft or acquire players with a specific role in mind. Bad orgs are constantly trying to hammer square pegs into round holes imo. The Oilers pro scouts used to do this all the time. Projecting Ference as a top pairing D, not seeing Cogliano as a potential defensive C, not trading for Corey Perry, etc.
In regard to Puljujarvi specifically, as I think that is the name that has many on the board at cross purposes, I followed the verbal closely during his first training camp. It became clear to me that Todd McLellan didn’t think he was ready and that Chiarelli had promised he would be and the roster counted on it. It was a repeat of the Griffin Reinhart disconnect between McLelland and Chiarelli in 2015 fall.
The thing both situations had in common? Edmonton didn’t need Reinhart because they had Nurse. And the Oilers didn’t need Puljujarvi becaause they had Kris Versteeg. Chiarelli let him walk, the die was cast.
I don’t see that as a political left or right thing, but rather a matter of being stubborn on a player(s).
One of the classic examples at the moment is former 1OV Arizona Coyotes QB Kyler Murray. Talent wise, he has the tools to be a Top 5 QB. However, when they renegotiated his contract, they had to write in a clause to get him to commit to a minimum number of hours for film study. The reason being he much prefers playing video games to studying film!!!
Meanwhile Tom Brady was drafted 199th overall, was deemed an average athlete predraft, and studied film like a Head Coach.
Once they hit the pros, it’s the guys who study and work hard that elevate. Talent isn’t enough anymore when everyone has talent.
I myself view Jesse as a loveable gentle giant. If I had to pick one personality trait that Jesse and I believe is vital if you want to be a productive player in the NHL is his lack of competetitiveness. Tkachuk looks like he’s super competitive in everything he does and on the extreme other side you have Jesse. Tkachuk is 6th in league wide scoring with 109 points, Jesse sadly is 466 place with 16pts. Just because: Yamamoto is in 339 place. Please tell me again with the wide open Hockey that’s being played how this player is a top 6 winger?
Size, speed, great shot, ten cent brain – Jake Virtanen
Ten cents seems generous at this point.
Dais centimos mas bueno, amigo? 🙂
I want to speak to the comment “a slow student is the fault of the teacher” comment. Certainly there are a range of types of brains, but its not about whos fault it is, and more about how can we get that “slow brain” (an idea that we could spend a lot of time unpacking – specifically the negative value you just attached to it, but also the idea that a slow processing speed equates to not being able to think quickly in a situation, also slow processers often seem to me to learn more deeply, really looking at things from all angles) to learn the ideas we want that person to learn. Teacher needs to adapt to get most out of kids that is possible.
Fully agree that the teacher needs to adapt to the student. Suspect this is a challenge with large class sizes. By slow, I’m more referring to the students we all know that fall behind the class cos they’re not doing the work or they miss a fundamental concept early and are constantly playing catchup as a result.
This is a fantastic comment. My son is 13 and has “slow processing”.
From an IQ perspective, he’s one of the smartest in his class. But in a general conversational format, he lags behind his peers. Processing real world data in real time is a challenge, but when he learns something, he understands it better than almost anyone else.
It’s a challenge, but people with slow processing shouldn’t be written off so quickly. They may not thrive in a fast-thinking environment, but they can make better, more thoughtful decisions than most of us.
Bad seeds are found in every family tree.
The Petrovian Apple Parade continues unabated as he sells the shot only to pass at the last second to his liney who has a yawning cage at which to snipe. 3-1 NB late in the first.
With respect to Bourgault, IMO, the best arrow has been a healthy season. Shows that there is no chronic nature to his injury issues, and really he has lost a lot of development at a young age, which is never a good thing. not every player gets that time back in terms of gaining skill. I believe that Benson was affected in this way, for eg.
Otherwise, he seems to be able to carry his main Junior skill to the AHL, and that’s finding seams and using quickness. Some shiftiness and deception too. I think the org would like to see him gain in strength, although I do like his stability on his skates. There’s more there though, and he could use adding half a step. But, IMO, out of the crop of recent high pick forwards, he has the best hockey sense. Patience and letting his body catch up to his brain I think is the best play here. I think I’d see how he looks by next Xmas and then start thinking about NHL timelines.
Really nice player and I expect him to out-perform his draft slot in the long run.
I am very reluctant to get too excited about prospects. Every fan base in every NHL city trumpets their prospect pool. ( in the city I live in fans still mumble about Sami Niku and Kristian Vesalainen)
Further, I am feeling the sting of both JP and to a lesser extent Yamamoto failing to reach what I anticipated from them as prospects.
However, I find both Dylan Holloway and XB to be clear NHL players.
As LT rightly mentions, Holloway has just to much raw ability. The only question is the degree to which he will convert that into NHL goal scoring. ( I lean towards 2nd line scoring rates with time )
XB’s hockey IQ is so above average and so evident -I almost find it impossible, to picture him not having some measure of success with our core players. ( and I am certainly not built this way)
Time will tell – but I fully endorse your view he will out do his draft slot.
I wanted to post about Oli Rodrigue several weeks ago, but couldn’t find the time. Hopefully he gets in to an NHL game or 2 next season.
After spending most of last year in the ECHL last season, he played mostly back-up in Bakersfield this season. Last year he finished off his AHL stint on a 4 game win streak, going 4-0 with a 0.919 save percentage and a 2.25 GAA. For context, these games were all played in January (2022) and were home and home vs cellar dwelling San Diego and Tucson.
His AHL totals for 2021-22 end up: 13 GP 6-5-2 0.886 3.09. So that winning stretch really gave his final numbers a boost. All good arrows nonetheless and good on the organization for doing right by the player’s’ development. The team last season had Skinner as the top dog, with Konovalov as the primary back-up. Stalock also got into 5 games and Fanti got 1 game.
This season Oli started out like this: 8 GP 4-4-0 0.924 2.52
Pickard: 7 GP 4-2-1 0.897 3.31
Pickard got injured in November and returned in January, so Rodrigue carried the load, playing 11 games, while Fanti struggled in his 8 games going: 0-5-1 0.884 3.71. Rodrigue:
4-9-0 0.897 3.32.
When Pickard returned in early January, he played the vast majority of the games and this where Chaulk frustrated me. Here is a breakdown, by month, of games played by each player. Pickard’s is the first number:
Oct 4/2, Nov 4/7, Dec 0/8, Jan 3/8, Feb 9/2, Mar 9/4, Apr 4/3.
Rodrique did hit a rough patch in the middle of the season for sure, but at the end of the season both goalies played well and the Condors finished strong, despite the often patchwork DCorps. Here are their results in their last 5 games:
CP 4-1-0 0.945 1.60 2 shutouts
OR 4-1-0 0.955 1.41 no shutouts
This team will give whoever they play difficulty and Oli is trending up. This organization finally has depth in the goaltending position!
*Correction, the January numbers should be reversed to read 8/3.
So Pickard played in 26, to Rodrigue’s 9. I will break these numbers down in a subsequent post, but don’t have the time.
To pick up where I left off, Pickard came back on 4 January and from 10 Jan to 18 March Oli played exactly 7 games. His record in these games: 3-3-1 0.869 3.28
Pickard played in 23 games. He went: 14-7-1 0.922 2.65
I do not know much about him but I do know his grandfather marches around Chicoutimi in an Oilers jacket telling everyone he meets his grandson is an Edmonton Oiler. That’s enough for me!
I don’t think there is anyway they sign Bjugstad back unless he takes a minimum contract. Philp will play the role of cheap bottom 6, tall, lanky RHC for most of the year. If need be they will supplement at the deadline again to grab someone like Bjugstad for cheap….maybe even Bjugstad himself again!
Why would they pin their hopes on magic beans, instead of counting on proven NHL-calibre talent? That’s one of the strategies that sunk the DoD teams in perpetuity.
The realistic play is Holland gets Bjug to sign a team friendly deal in order to either or both pump his stats / have a chance to win, and put Philp in a position to earn/take a job by camp/TDL. Or, as you say, finds a similar player for nearly league minimum as his replacement.
Holland’s MO is to sign a bunch of NHL vets to one year deals and require the AHL prospects to win their spot on the team from one of those vets. I’m not sure who those vets will be but I feel confident that every prospect in the AHL, including Holloway, will have to take someone’s job to get into the team. Holland’s track record in this respect is crystal clear.
Oilers are the first team since the 80-81 Isles to lead the League in both powerplay markers and shorthanded goals. Been done a bunch of times, but most are from the Original Six era.
Ah had thought Wayne & Co. had managed it – I remembered them racking up shorties on top of setting GF records.
Guess not.
Hmmmmm, prospect talk brings my mind to D Ryan. We have spoken about loyalty and treating people right. With his path and hockey IQ I would like to see him resigned to a 2 year x 1 million. Big thing is to be honest with him as he would slide down to take the Devin shore spot as 13th forward in the first year and then the 2nd year would likely be in the A as a mentor. After that he should be offered an assistant coach spot for Bakersfield. Good on draws, good pk, good positionally and an inspiration for meandering prospects.
Good timing given the substance of the blog, Oilers re-signed Cam Dineen to a one-year, 2-way deal at league min for NHL time.
Good signing and it wasn’t a lock given he was a pending UFA I believe.
He is a plus offensive d-man at the AHL level. Don’t think he’s much more that deep depth for the NHL but such D depth has been shallowed recently.
Helps take the sting out of moving Kesselring a bit (although Kesselring is clearly the higher potential prospect and he had a good run down the stretch for the Yotes – likely plays for them every day next season).
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
The #LetsGoOilers re-signed pending group 6 UFA 24 y/o LD Cam Dineen to 1 year deal NHL 775K Minors 210K Guaranteed 250K Was acquired from #Yotes in Bjugstad trade. 47P in 69 AHL GP
Cam Dineen is indeed a name to keep in mind.
If Philp and Lavoie can both crack the roster out of camp that definitely gives Holland some wiggle room.
I do expect two of Yamomoto, Kulak or Foegele moved this summer. I suspect they are all available for draft picks. All good players but all expendable with money as tight as it is.
If Bouchard‘s contract comes in cheap as a bridge there is no need to move any of them this year.
Foegele and Yamo are player for their next contracts. Kulak is too good and too cheap to just toss away.
Actual NHL players have way more value than magic beans at a draft unlikely to impact until 2026-27.
If Bouchard’s contract comes up cheap, most likely doubles the cost pain down the road.
None of the 3 players are being tossed away, it’s tough decisions in a cap world. The 2-4mil players are luxuries not always affordable when you’ve gathered such top end talent that you have to pay to keep together.
For example, I’d move Yams or Foegele to keep Bugstud in the fold.
You’re usually pretty up on the cap stuff. Just curious where you expect the money to be spent if two of those players are going out and you expect Bouchard to come in under $3M.
My guesses at next year have had Bouchard at $3M and only really needing to move one of the three (though Bouchard did eat up an extra $425k there on Thursday night).
I like to start with the 12 core pieces on a team.
Up front the Oilers have McDavid, Draisaitl, Nuge, Hyman and Kane who are clearly part of the top seven regardless of whether you place Nuge at 3C or on the wing. Two open spots. McLeod could make it one open spot as the 3C. I like his chances personally but it is still not written in stone.
On the back end I see all four spots taken with Nurse, Ekholm, Bouchard and Ceci. It is a bit unusual in that the two lefties are stronger than the two righties but it kind of works. Ceci would probably slot at 2RD in a perfect world as would Bouchard so there is a redundancy there.
Kulak is a bit of a luxury at 3LD given his cap hit as are Foegele and Yamamoto for what they bring and where they slot. The high end contracts don’t really leave room for overpays lower in the batting order so If I am looking for upgrades this is where I have to find the money.
I expect Campbell to revert to form as a strong high end goalie with consistency issues next year and Skinner exceeded my expectations so I am happy in goal.
================
So if I am Holland I am looking down my right side to see if I can find improvement.
Here is the board as I have it at the moment going into next season.
Nuge – McDavid – Hyman
Kane – Draisaitl – ???
Holloway – McLeod – ???
Bjugstad, Janmark, Philp, Lavoie, Kostin pencilled in depending on money and/or opportunity but still in flux for various reasons. I expect 4 of them to be on the opening night roster.
The back end has seven guys ready to go but if money is needed Kulak’s status as a luxury becomes problematic. I know things can change but I don’t see Broberg as somebody Holland is willing to trade.
So there is a hole at 2RW and a slight weakness at 1RD. Those are where I am shopping and looking around at this summer to see if anybody pops loose.
Teams that win Stanley tend to see a spike in interest for their UFA’s driving up cap hits that the Oil cannot afford to match. Losing tends to expose weaknesses that the GM tries to fix during the summer so all of this is tentative but that is how it looks to me at the moment. I think Holland wants to try and add one more weapon in one of those two spots.
Yeah that makes a lot of sense, and I largely agree.
To this point I’ve mostly been looking at it from the perspective of what has to happen rather than what will happen. IE – one of the three has to be traded, while it could very well end up being more than one of them (with an incumbent RD added to the group of three if the target ends up being a 1RD).
On 2RW, if Yamamoto is filling that slot effectively then his salary isn’t a luxury. Only if he’s failing to (as he has for much of this year) or playing lower in the order. I think this is a big playoff for him. If 2RW is a weak spot through the playoffs though there’s no question he’s vulnerable. If he does end up being effective in a top 6 spot and posts some offense then it may be enough that Holland isn’t prioritizing 2RW for an upgrade.
And on Kulak, agree that $2.75M is a luxury for a 3LD. For me it’s more about Broberg though. Broberg has to play full time next year IMO (and agree Holland isn’t going to trade him). You can say Kulak will be 7D (a number of posters have said that) but it’s just not true. He won’t be the 7D if he’s still an Oiler.
So I think Kulak is probably the most likely of the three obviously exits, because he is a luxury in his role, and he’s blocking Broberg, AND they need to shed money somewhere even without adding anything.
Yeah, I think a lot rides on what comes available as well. If nothing better presents then we could be looking at Lavoie & Philp with Shore & Ryan moving on.
As Holland likes to say it isn’t like there is a store you can go to where 2RW players are available to whoever needs one.
Ekholm shook free at just about the perfect time.
Ekholm was really perfect timing. And for sure what’s available will dictate a lot of what happens.
As an aside, I have a hard time seeing both Lavoie and Philip (and Holloway) in the lineup regularly next year. Granted I haven’t been watching them play in Bakersfield so I may be underestimating, but it seems like a bit too much to ask from here.
I think we will need to move out at least one (and possibly two) of Kulak, Yamo, Foegele and Ceci.
I included Ceci in case there is an opportunity to upgrade our RD. We have 2 legit 1LD but no true 1RD (at least not yet).
Yes, all of the $3 million men have value but the NHL is a salary cap efficiency contest and we don’t have the luxury of being able to keep them all.
If 2 of them move then there is money to go longer on Bouch, say 5×5. I want to see whoever they can lock up for a few years to be done this off season. This is the last of the flattish cap. Having the core signed at appropriate rates for this cap will pay dividends for years. If If bouch is bridged at 3×2 then we end up paying a contract with a 7 likely and we begin the Nurse contract drama all over. Holland has already done this with Kane, RNH and Hyman while adding Ekholm into a group of players that are seriously underpaid.
I disagree that 2 of the 3 need to be moved, I’ve done the math dozens of times and in order to bring back essentially the current roster they only need to move 1 of the 3.
– Kulak is superfluous to the roster next year, Broberg is ready and Kulak is too good to sit in the press box.
– I don’t see where Edmonton could replace Foegele’s production at a similar or lower cap hit, so I think he stays. Possibly Holloway can on his ELC, but Holland can’t know that going into the summer so he can’t afford to move Foegele.
– That leaves Yamamoto. I’m torn on the player – love him when he’s healthy and productive, but we haven’t seen a lot of that this year. I’m interested to see what Holland does here, if anything.
In conclusion I think Kulak is the overwhelmingly obvious candidate to create the cap space required to re-sign Bouchard and McLeod. I think others (Yamamoto, Ceci) only get moved for an upgrade at the same position, and I think Foegele stays.
Would folks be surprised to learn the Oilers had the best special teams in the NHL this season?
Everyone knows the PP is all-world, but the PK struggled badly for much of the year (for the full season the PK was 21st in GA/60).
The Oilers scored SH goals though, and that PP was really good.
Here is the net special teams goal differential for NHL playoff teams (ie – PP goals minus PK goals against, subtracting SH goals on both sides):
1) EDM +36
2) DAL +29
3) BOS +25
4) NYR +20
4) TOR +20
6) MIN +19
7) CAR +15
8) TBL +14
9) COL +13
10) WPG +12
(this is the top 10 in the NHL, after this some non-playoff teams show up)
12) NJD +10
16) VGK +5
18) LAK +1
21) NYI -5
23) FLA -9
24) SEA -10
The Oilers PK goal differential (accounting for SH goals) was #16 in the league vs. their GA/60 being 20th.
The Oilers were good, not great at 5v5 on the whole season (+23, which was 12th in the league, with a positive differential also in other even strength situations).
So overall the team was ‘good’ at 5v5, while being elite on special teams (#1 on the PP and #16 on the PK). Everything improved in the 2nd half as well.
The 2nd half (last 41 games for everyone) special teams goal differential for playoff teams:
1) EDM +24
2) CAR +16
3) DAL +14
4) LAK +12
4) MIN +12
6) COL +11
7) NYR +10
7) TOR +10
9) NJD +8
10) BOS +6
13) SEA +4
14) TBL +3
15) FLA +2
18) WPG -1
21) NYI -3
24) VGK -7
The Oilers PK goal differential was #7 in the league in the 2nd half (-13 goals). Their GA/60 was improved but still #17 in the league.
And as I mentioned the other day though, game #1 of the last 41 for the Oilers was the 6-3 January loss to the Kings where they allowed 4 PK goals against. So in the last 40 games the Oilers GA/60 improves to 12th and their PK goal differential improves to -9 goals, #2 in the league. And the total (PP+PK) special teams goal differential improves to +28.
This was coupled with a big improvement in 5v5 results. The Oilers were +30 at 5v5 in the 2nd half (41 games), which was #2 in the league to Boston.
Playoff teams in 2nd half 5v5 goal differential, for anyone interested.
1) BOS +47
2) EDM +30
3) COL +29
4) VEG +23
5) FLA +21
6) DAL +17
6) CAR +17
8) TOR +16
8) NYR +16
10) NJD +13
11) SEA +11
12) NYI +7
12) LAK +7
16) MIN 0
16) TBL 0
16) WPG 0
I did not realize we were #2 in the league, sustained over a half-season. This is a BIG up arrow, seeing as how our 5v5 numbers appeared to be ‘just OK’.
Combined with the fact that we are a clear #2 in regulation wins, we stack up pretty well against anybody in the West, and really anybody in the league besides Boston.
Good post. I wonder what the correlation is between special teams goal differential and playoff winning percentage?
Good question. I will not be providing the answer today!
Pretty sure 5v5 performance correlates better with playoff success, though special teams are obviously also important.
I was surprised how OK the Oilers PK has been overall, and that they grade out as #1 on special teams overall (PP+PK for the full year).
And great arrows everywhere in the 2nd half, assuming they continue.
Hey JP, thanks for bringing those stats, very interesting. Also timely as a couple of days ago we were discussing 5v5 scoring, and I had asked ‘against who’?
I was serious so I went through the last 10 games and got all scoring for the top 6 which has been a stable group for the most part just to see what happened
EVG – Even strength goal, PPG – Power play goal, EVA – Even strength assist. Oiler’s score first
Mar 25 3-4 OT VGK
EVG 1 PPG 1 EVA 3
Only 1 EVG and they go to OT and lose
Mar 27 5-4 OT Arizona
EVG 1 PPG 1 EVA 0
Again 1 EVG and go to OT
Mar 28 7-4 VGK
EVG 2 PPG 2 EVA 3
A more open game, top 6 produce and win walking away
Mar 30 2-0 LA
EVG 1 PPG 0 EA 2
1 EVG and played tight defensively. Was enough this game
Apr 1 6-0 Ducks
EVG 3 PPG 1 EVA 3
Racked them up against a weak team
Apr 4 3-1 LA
EVG 0 PPG 2 EVA 0
No even strength production so a tight game, they played tight enough to win
Apr 5 3-1 Ducks
EVG 0 PPG 0 EVA 0
No production and a close game against a weak team, empty netter in the 3
Apr 8 6-1 SJ
EVG 4 PPG 0 EVA 4
Racked them up against a weak team
Apr 11 2-1 OT Avs
EVG 0 PPG 0 EVA 0
No even production and saved by Skinner and a clever CMD word to Bouch about using a fake
Apr 13 5-2 SJ
EVG 1 PPG 1 EVA 3
Again put more production up against a weak team
So 13 EVG in 10 games. 9 of them against the non playoff teams, 4 against playoff teams and 2 we will face. I feel this aligns with what I thought I was seeing.
The PP was shut out in 4 of 10 games, including one game each against The Avs and LA in which they managed 1 EVG in total. That is relying way too much on good fortune. Great teams take as much luck out if the game as possible, even if luck is still needed
The PP is a big thing and a part of scoring, but in hard fought games it can get skunked, it’s not a given, and we saw it unable to score in key moments last playoffs, even 5-3
To me this will be the key to the Cup. If they can score consistently and enough 5v5 (there are always tight games, but few win the Cup squeaking out wins all the way through) I don’t see anyone stopping them
To me it’s about coaching. The offense has had trouble manifesting against certain types of defense, particularly teams that take the lanes around their net away – plug it up. I think there needs to be some offensive strategy applied and not just relying on the Duo to do great things
That can be shut down as we have seen the last 10 games. It will take the 4 wingers supporting the Duo enough either by getting in position through mud to be set up, or getting the puck to Connor and Leon in a good enough place to finish. Don’t get pushed to the perimeter and rely on banging in the crease and jamming from sides. You do that and set also shots up
I am very hopeful. Let the filthy Kings have it boys!
I believe the ‘against who’ question was about Draisaitl and his line getting scored on lots lately. And I answered it (IIRC Draisaitl was 6-3 goals in the last 8 games, and 2-1 in games against playoff teams – so outscoring at a 2:1 rate in both cases, but more events against non-playoff teams).
From the top 6 scoring numbers you’ve posted here, I’m seeing:
5 games against playoff teams 5EVG 5PPG 8EVA
5 games against non-playoff teams 9EVG 3PPG 10EVA
So more even strength production against the weak teams, as you’d expect. More PP production against the playoff teams though. And they still went 4-0-1 against the playoff teams.
No question the PP won’t score every game, same with 5v5, and same with the top 6. I think it’s key that the team has shown the ability recently to lock it down the other way and win low scoring games even when they don’t post offense.
For me that’s the single biggest thing, when added to the offense (wherever it’s coming from).
LT with a great post/thought experiment today. This is sort of what I was getting at with my pie in the sky expectation list the other day. LT is much more concise and to the point.
Colorado was topped out last year, all in, lost pieces this year. Yes still a phenomenal team and could have staying power yes. But it’s external now, internally they’ve topped out. Ditto with Pitts, Tampa, Boston, Toronto etc.
There are several Oilers players who could reasonably be expected to step forward and fill NHL roles over the next three seasons. Not necessarily Nuge level pops but you know, consistent, 82 game efforts, maintaining a scratch to ahead GF/GA at 5v5. Still a growth team in that regard.
If we look at the age curves we might not see fully “peak” Oilers for another two seasons. Or perhaps we’re at Peak 1 now and it just roles into Peak 2, together lasting a decade or so? Either way it’s fun that they’ve arrived early, I wasn’t expecting the window to fully open until next year and I still think there is a lot of room to run for the franchise in the years to come.
The hope was always to stretch the window beyond the current McDrai contracts, and that was always going to require a) Home grown value contracts; b) Locking down farmhand standouts at value through their second contracts.
The second point is debatable (you could try to bridge then replenish, or return to the well), but imo any second coming a la Pittsburg will depend on retaining players like Bouch at value. Otherwise when it comes time for Edmonton’s own Kane/Toews re-signing, Oilers will suffer the same fate as CHI as a lopsided roster that can’t compete.
My pasani prediction…warren foegele…
All I can think about is a Leon Draisaitl with 2 working legs absolutely laying waste to the scum that are the LA Kings.
The jibberish coming out of LA “got to eliminate McDavid” Forgetting about Dre should be sacrilege on the west coast, they’re going to need a Dr after this affair.
LA fans talk as if their team toughness has vanished this year. It’s only the hack writers desperately building up the LA Kings 2023.
Oilers in 5.
Alot of blood thirsty fans there too. Been perusing a Kings blog while bored at work. Seen the word Charmin soft come up lots but more people were posting that seeing McD with a broken leg will be the real win. Gross IMO.
Folks seem to be recalling last years team and not this year. This version has more forward depth and scoring prowess.
L.A. will have trouble getting the matchup or sustained pressure they’ll need.
Oilers just need to keep their cool and stick to the plan.
He and Pickard weren’t all that far off from splitting when all was said and done – 38 games for Pickard, 29 for Rodrigue (I know it wasn’t as even when Pickard was healthy/available).
Rodrigue also struggled when he was the go-to both this season and last, so taking it slow and steady with him may not be a bad thing.
The season was definitely a positive arrow for Rodrigue regardless.
Playing in the playoffs is development.
My guess is the teams wanted Pickard up to speed should he get the call if one of the tenders in EDM were out for any reason.
Either way, happy to see Rodrigue is arrows up. I was skeptical when they moved up to draft him after having just done the same thing at the draft prior with Skinner.
That would be coming from a long ways away for Savoie and Berglund. Tough rookie year for Savoie with injuries and ability to really gain traction. I did anticipate a very tough start for him with a better second half but injuries didn’t allow for that better second half.
I don’t know about Berglund – he may be starting next season in Fort Wayne……
I’m not so sure about Kambeitz but, ya, I think Alex Peters gets the 2-way NHL deal. I don’t know if he ever sees an NHL game but I also said that about Vinny D. and, well, I was way off on that – and I had watched him play for years.
For me, I think Noah Philp is just as “NHL ready” as Lavoie and maybe even more as I think his mature 2-way game will translate and he’s simply bigger, stronger, quicker and more skilled than one realizes – when you watch him nightly, it becomes apparent.
As I keep saying, the Oilers can’t have non-established rookies pencilled in to roster spots going in to camp – they have to beat out an established player and take their job but, at the same time, with $7.65MM of cap space and 15 players on the roster (or add Holloway so 16 players and $6.7MM of cap space heading in to the off-season), I’m not sure there is money to bring both Bjugstad and Ryan back. Bjugstad could be $2MM plus if he has a good playoffs.
The one thing with Ryan – he could take a league min base and, say, a $500K performance bonus for 15 games essentially locking him in to $1.25MM but only $750K on the cap (a bonus overage for the following season if they don’t have cap room but they might if they don’t get back in to LTIR all season long).
I suppose adding a bonus to Ryan’s contract could make some sense, but I don’t see why he’d be getting quite $1.25M from the Oilers next season (if it were a guaranteed to vest bonus like you’re suggesting).
He signed for $1.25M two years ago. He’s quite useful, but he’s also a 36-year old 4th liner.
I agree he’s not likely to sign at league minimum ($775k next year), but I don’t see $1.25M either.
We’ll see, but I’d expect something more like $900k or $1.0M. Maybe on a 2 year deal, with the possibility of retirement if he falls off after year 1.
Remember, $775,000 is the minimum salary next year, hopefully the salary cap goes up a few million…
This isn’t going to be as big of a deal as folks are fearing.
I think Bouchard is in a curious spot. Yes he filled in exceptionally well for Barrie on the PP (who else could?). Yes his play picked up with a Force of a defensive partner (who else’s play could improve?)
The emergence of Vinny creates an issue for Evan. With Broberg and the AHLers pushing they don’t “need” Bouch to start the year. They have enough playmakers now – Nurse, Ekholm and Broberg, to patch together on the PP. If someone pops during that time all of a sudden your star fades.
If I’m Bouchard I’m not sure I take a long term at Dobson/Andersen money. I’d bet on myself and shoot for Morrissey. If he goes one or two seasons in this deal, He’d see what Broberg and Vinny got for their troubles. Ceci’s money is freed up in two seasons. There will be a Cap pop etc.
I have a feeling Kenny is going to squeeze him for a one year. One year at $2 million, just above his bonus pool from this year. Or maybe 2x$3.1, like Yamo got for his 3rd deal. They’ll dangle playing with Ekholm and that’s a helluva way to bet on yourself.
Bouchard’s agent will want a one year to get to arbitration I would think. Holland holds out for 2 years at something less than $3M. As you say there should be a pop on the cap for his 3rd deal. This is the last time Holland has the hammer and I expect him to use it.
Bjugstad will not cost $2 million.
No way in hell. He’s coming off back to back $900k/year deals and is good for Ryan level production. At 31 into next season give him $1.25×2, maybe, maybe, $1.5×2. He made good money in his second contract, he’s playing for the game and Glory at this point.
I’m not sure Ryan comes back. I think he hangs it up if they win it all.
Janmark could come back for same contract and cost.
This would be close to my guess for Bjugstad as well.
Is there still such a thing as a playing coach in the AHL? That might be something that would work for both Ryan and the team. Give him an NHL contract that can be buried & let him mentor the kids in Bakersfield while dipping his toes in what it is like to coach.
I could see someone seeing his size and paying 2 mil
22K Gold March 2023
Deadline: 1st puck drop of the Oilers playoffs
Rules:
1 – How many games do the Oilers win during these playoffs?
tie break
2 – How many points do Leon and Connor score combined?
tie break
3 – How many goals does Evander Kane score?
1.16
2.73
3.15
14 wins, 67 points, 13 goals
I was so thrilled that the Condors wound up with a first round matchup in Abbotsford, given I’m walking distance from the arena. Last year the Bake also played the Canucks but with home ice advantage, which in the first round is all three games of a best-of-three series. So I was excited to finally go support the farm team in enemy territory… until I realized they play at 7pm local time on Wed, Fri and Sun. I feel like there’s something else important happening around those times. Sheesh! What’s a guy to do.
Prospectish!
Again a tandem of NA amateurs prospects this day, but a different pair from yesternight.
Despite having home ice, North Bay and Saskatoon dropped their respective series openers on Friday. A chance at redemption is theirs in matinee action.
Petrov has yet to light the lamp these playoffs but has 11 assists in 7 GP to lead his team in scoring. Meanwhile, Chiasson has 3+1 in 8 GP thus far.
North Bay (Petrov) @ noon
Saskatoon (Chiasson) @ 4 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Winfield time.
Thinking that opening game tom night is going to be a rough and tumble affair. I think we definitely have the edge in size, toughness and definitely speed now. LA will not push us around. They do have a couple of shit disturbers who are a bit greasier in Lizotte, Danault ( who loves to slash and whack ) and the worst in my opinion who is a mouth piece is Kempe ( who I never really noticed until this year watching him live. He is nasty ) . But the Oil have guys to neutralize these jerks for sure.
Let’s hope the refs call a good game ?
This game is 100% up to how well the Oilers enter the contest. Championship teams dictate play. And it never hurt the Oilers when for example Anderson got into a physical war with Billy Smith, or Mark Messier gave one of his patented exhibitions of non scoring excellence.
The Kings are a good team but Oilers know them well and are superior in practically every metric. To start the playoffs they’re jolly well near perfect to play the first villains. The Jets play good old fashioned honest hockey and therefore could possibly upset these snowflakes.
This is why I hope to goodness Toronto doesn’t get to the finals. Playing against the Leafs in a finals would probably overwhelm this team.
Boston on the other hand would be perfect. Everyone would expect Bruins to win and so Oilers simply go into game 1 and 2 and destroy the 30 year old star players with blazing speed….and I’ve yet to see an eastern team other than Tampa be able or willing to stand toe to toe with them so forget about the “tough” Bruins.
That said, Boston has a model organization and has got to be one of the top 5 hockey teams to play for in the NHL. And for a hockey purist Edmonton with a contending team is certainly one of the top NHL cities in my humble opinion.
Mark Messier gave one of his patented exhibitions of non scoring excellence.
Ha! That line made me laugh out loud.
Doughty and Edler are absolutely filthy.
Durzi is a bit of a dirtbag too.
It’ll be interesting to see who they have on the 3rd pair. Now that Anderson is back and Edler appears to be healthy their 3rd pair will feature only 2/3 of Drurzi, Edler and Walker. Could be one less dirtbag in the lineup.
Forgot about Edler. Yup Doughty is a tough to play against D man .
Drai levelled him and sent a message in that last home game
Philp was such a great signing. Hope he makes the team next year. Do think he just gets better. Such a smart player with great skating and size