Game One of this series one year ago was frustrating and brilliant (Connor McDavid scored a fantastic goal) and decided by an Oilers goalie making a poor and dangerous decision with the puck. I don’t believe we’ll see a repeat this evening. I expect this series to involve three types of games. First, contests the Oilers dominate with top-end skill and are able to control. Second, games LAK can dictate the pace and style of play beginning to end, and win. Third? The Oilers wheel just enough in close games to win the day. I suspect we’ll see one of each, and do expect the Oilers to win in six games.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
- New DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
- Lowetide: Why Stuart Skinner should be the Oilers first Calder winner
- New DNB: Stuart Skinner Q and A
- Lowetide: Oilers transcend reasonable expectations in 2022-23, led by Connor McDavid
- Lowetide: Who could be the Oilers’ playoff Fernando Pisani this year?
- DNB: Oilers ready for a playoff rematch with Avalanche
- DNB: Top seed in West and ‘momentum’ for playoffs
- Lowetide: Oilers’ second half spike owes much to Jay Woodcroft’s innovation
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
LAST YEAR GAME ONE POST GAME (written May 3, 2022)
The possible outcomes of a Mike Smith start are as far apart as sunrise and sunset.
Edmonton needs to figure out in a quick hurry what to do with the Danault line. The trio was 6-2 shots (1-0 goals) versus Keith-Bouchard; 2-0 shots (1-0 goals) against Nurse-Ceci; 1-1 shots and 1-0 goals in less than a minute against Russell-Barrie (I think that’s right, I’m estimating a little). As mentioned above, Danault owned Nuge’s line 2-0 and that’s really the difference in the game. You can say “keep Nuge away!” but the two lines spent just 3:37 against each other, the primary matchup was the Draisaitl unit. Danault also won that five-on-five battle, 1-0 goals and 4-0 shots in 5:25.
All of this is interesting, but if Smith’s neurons could hold a thought maybe Edmonton wins that game.
Bottom line: Either you believe in Woodcroft and Manson or you don’t, and either way is fine. I’ll throw my chips in with this coach, my guess is he’s trying to work around some injuries and didn’t think the Nuge line would take on that much water. He’s good at adjustments. Smith needs to be better.
AND WE’RE BACK!
It’s been years since this Oilers team had me thinking about the possibility of a Stanley Cup. We don’t know of course, but this is a veteran team that has been to hell and back and is building a strong playoff resume. The playoffs come at you fast, and Game One a year ago was intense. Here are the highlights. That team, the one described above, made the final four.
This year’s model is better, far better if you believe in the results since January 1. The best player in the the game is Connor McDavid, and if the LAK can play him to a draw Leon Draisaitl and his gang are up next. Edmonton has elite talent, more depth than in the past, and two pairings that can play versus elites effectively. The rookie goaltender, Stuart Skinner, has been money. I like this team’s chances to get past the Kings.
LIKELY LINES AND PAIRINGS (FIVE ON FIVE PERFORMANCE)
- Nuge-McDavid-Hyman. 209 minutes, 16-10 goals, 61 percent expected goals.
- Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto. 166 minutes, 12-7 goals, 47 percent expected goals.
- Kostin-Bjugstad-Janmark. 44 minutes, 4-1 goals, 47 percent expected goals.
- Foegele-McLeod-Ryan. 49 minutes, 1-2 goals, 58 percent expected goals.
- Nurse-Ceci. 1081 minutes. 46-48 goals. 50 percent expected goals.
- Ekholm-Bouchard. 290 minutes. 27-8 goals. 61 percent expected goals.
- Kulak-Desharnais. 242 minutes. 13-9 goals. 53 percent expected goals.
- Stuart Skinner 50 games .926 SP and 2.22 GAA
- Jack Campbell 36 games .896 SP and 3.05 GAA
If the top two lines keep firing as they have since being put together (Evander Kane checked down to the Draisiatl line in the later part of March), I think the Kings are going to have a difficult time. Although the left coast club did make some interesting changes at the deadline, Edmonton’s move for Mattias Ekholm gave the Oilers a perfect fit in an area of vital need.
BOOK SIGNING
I will be at Transit Smokehouse & BBQ on Fort Road on Saturday noon to 4pm to sign copies of ON THE CLOCK. I will have a limited number (about 25) books for purchase at $28, and we’ll be using E-transfer. I can also sign any purchased books at that time, make sure to bring it with you. Joining me are two brilliant authors and broadcasters, including the legendary Bob Layton who has written “Welcome to Radio” and “I’ll puke in your pocket and Side Hustles” plus Shane Blakely, who wrote “In and Above Edmonton: Then and Now”. The Transit Smokehouse and BBQ is at 12720 Fort Road. Noon to four pm Saturday. They have a lunch special that looks good! See you there!
THEY MIGHT BE GIANTS
In the spring of 1984, we knew. We didn’t know what year, but we knew the Edmonton Oilers would win the Stanley Cup. There was simply too much for other teams to overcome. Wayne Gretzky was the best player we’d ever seen, Mark Messier moving to center was an act of genius, Jari Kurri was elite across 200 feet, Glenn Anderson fearless. The secondary forwards who scored 20+ numbered three (Willy Lindstrom, Pat Hughes, Dave Hunter) and Ken Lineseman posted 49 assists as a quality two-way center.
On defense, Paul Coffey was brilliant and grabbed all the attention, but Kevin Lowe was the driving force of a defensive unit that could beat you at the racetrack and in the alley. Charlie Huddy and Randy Gregg were consistent, reliable and effective in both ends of the ice. Lee Fogolin, LEE FOGOLIN, was the heart and soul of the franchise and played cooler as things heated up. Need someone to sock an opponent in the jaw? Fogolin, Dave Semenko, Don Jackson or Dave Lumley could help there.
In goal, Grant Fuhr boasted a .911 save percentage in 16 games, Andy Moog an .891 total in seven contests. Moog would stop 23 of 25 on May 19, 1984 in the game that clinched Stanley No. 1 for Edmonton. Fuhr set the tone for the series when he shutout the New York Islanders on 34 stops in Game One (a 1-0 win) on the road.
It was a team effort. Jackson and Jaroslav Pouzar had zero points in the final and they played important roles.
It will be a team effort this time, too. It is also folly if one fails to recognize what a special player Connor McDavid has become. He sets his jaw and the hockey world quivers, and for good reason. However, giving McDavid the entire stage would not be proper, or a relection of this team. Leon Draisaitl, Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Evan Bouchard, Stuart Skinner and others will all make their mark on this franchise over the coming weeks.
Stanley, like tomorrow, is promised to no one. The Oilers seem inevitable.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
10-2 TSN1260, we’re wall-to-wall Oilers and Stanley Cup playoffs. Daniel Nugent-Bowman from The Athletic will join us to talk about his brilliant piece on Connor McDavid and about the Oilers chances. We’ll chat about what makes this year’s Oilers different than the past, and how much of a hurdle the LA Kings represent. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Nurse could have ended it with a pass back to Drai instead of a muffin into the goalie’s crest.
Sure, as could 65 other different things.
I didn’t get to watch the game as I was working. I followed online. Seems like Oilers would win this game if replayed more times than not. This is a valuable reminder that despite expectations and teams on paper this is not going to be easy. The team needs to commit to 60 minutes and smart, disciplined hockey. Seems like the team that beat the Oilers tonight is the Oilers themselves. I trust the leadership and coaching to adjust and learn from this.
It’s a long series. They say history has a way of repeating itself. But I say McDavid has a way of not being held off the scoresheet.
A lot of lessons tonight. The good news is the Kings have little answer for the Oilers at full gas. The bad news is the Oilers are not great at keeping the throttle full. Cut out a lot of mistakes and it’s an entirely different game.
Anze Kopitar had 4 points tonight.
The Kopitar / Kempe Line most certainly had an answer for some high profile Oiler players.
Kings were playing rope a dope hockey. I wished Woody would of played the 3rd and 4 line more both lines played well.
The Kings always play that way.
Limit the damage from the other teams top players and score opportunistic goals.
I think the frustrating thing about that game is the Oil were full value for most of the penalties, but LAK somehow only got 1 in the final 3 periods despite no shortage of interference and holding. The Oilers were undisciplined but man the refs gave the kings every inch and called us tight as hell. Oh well, the boys can win this they just need to keep their PK off the ice at all costs. Gawd I hate the kings and their refs, but nothing worse than beating yourselves. They had that one too
On the first GA to start the 3rd period, McDavid forgot he was the leading goal scorer in the league when he had nothing but the goaltender in front of him. Decided to make the difficult pass instead of taking the easy shot.
The good Larry Murphy and the bad Larry Murphy on the same night. Bouchard was a little too amped up, and took bad penalties along with the elite offensive flourishes.
Absolutely hated that pass in that moment of the game. Up 3-0, maybe but not 2-0.
They give us a 5 on 3 and then don’t give us a single powerplay after that. The Kings played an amazingly clean game i guess…
They give the Kings SEVEN powerplays. One in the last 2 minutes of the game, and then one brutal call in OT. Both calls were dives…Kings can’t win a fair game so they resort to acting. Vinny’s stick didn’t even touch that bum. Go play soccer.
No we didn’t play the full 60 mins but we didn’t lose that game. The refs gave it to the Kings. Literally did all they could to let them win.
Not sure you were watching the same game as the rest of us … the calls that went against the Oilers were obvious and dumb. They were very undisciplined with their sticks tonight.
Watch the replay bud. His stick didn’t even touch the skates.
And they called high sticking on Bouch…it might have been a cross-check…but his stick didn’t hit him in the head. The guy dropped to the ice like he got shot.
The penalty calls on us were soft. Very soft.
OK bud … if that makes you feel better you can believe that the refs have it out for us.
Took too many penalties. That’s it.
The Oil beat themselves. Undisciplined and couldn’t play a full 60. McDavid was pretty sleepy looking. Game 2 needs to be a better effort.
We can all blame the refs etc. But the reality is we had the game won after 2. McDavid a poor back pass. Skinner a blown save. And 3 dumb penalties in the 3rd. Many missed opportunities to score. We literally have to play playoff hockey and we’d win the game. We will learn and be better or we will go golfing.
6-3 PP’s with the last after a stiff arm on Warren.
It’s the LA Kings baby, you knew what we were getting in to.
Stripes knew it right after the whistle. Put his hand on his heart and everything.
The rest were legit though and several were of the stupid variety. Play hard but not stupid. Kane and Bouch were stupid penalties.
It’s all good though.
Wake em up, forget the slow dance stuff.
McDavid was off tonight. He will be better.
The Hyman penalty was undisciplined, too.
It was but Buddy wasn’t exactly gripping the lumber tightly.
Agreed it shouldn’t matter though those are three Key Cogs taking dumb penalties. Not helpful.
That stupid PK setup got them again too.
Ceci should never be playing the pass from up top.
Bjugstad in no man’s land by design.
Dumb.
Kings look to have it figured out. I don’t like Nurse playing goal either. Need to adjust
Home town Reffing but the announcer is talking about nonsense. Bring in Hextall she checks the boxes
Lol y’all are so dramatic
They stub their toe and y’all panic. Same as it ever was. They’re fine and played quite well mind you. Especially 5v5.
LA never led, never really carried the play, never did much of anything when it wasn’t odd man. The Kings did NOT outplay the Oilers.
This matters for proper diagnosis and tweaks. Mine are easy. Stay out of the damn box and it’s a very simple game. Way too many stupid penalties even if the last one was a joke. Play hard but not stupid.
McDavid will be better.
Who’s panicking?
Awful game. Terrible PKing after taking too many dumb penalties.
Bouchard is happy.
Bad call, but I’m not actually mad at the refs. The Oilers did this to themselves. They had this game and they threw it right to the Kings on a silver platter. Only ones to blame tonight are the Oilers.
Absolutely pathetic loss. They gave that game away.
Agony.
Lol
Yep.
The agony and the ecstasy.
I missed playoff hockey, can’t wait for game 2.
Choke
Of course. Same as last year. Very frustrating.
Have to stay out of the penalty box.
That was a terrible call.
Mcdavid will be better
what
a
collapse
not feeling inevitable now
Dumb mistakes and out goaltended
If we lose next game Woody has to bring in Campbell.
If we lose, and skinner lets in some really terrible goals:
Maybe woody might consider putting in Campbell for game 3.
Or are you thinking Campbell might be a good pk specialist defender?
No panic knee-jerk goalie controversy please.
How about that PK?
Sadly, the Oilers didn’t deserve to win this game. Taking the foot off the pedal in the 3rd period. A lot of Oilers had excellent games, but too few.
Motherfucker
Well, the ref’s have been calling it tight all game….oh. Wait…
So that’s how we’re going to decide this.
Give the cheap call cause he’s a rookie
So where do we meet with pitchforks to chase the refs out?
You call that?
aw man, never woulda thought the Oilers would be the goons
Dive. 100% dive. He had stayed
on his feet.
He certainly made it more dramatic than it needed to be
Garys refs still going to California
Stupid, stupid, stupid.
That’s a dive
Kulak with a glorious chance.
Kulak has been wanting to score all game
Oh of course there’s a penalty against us
Draisaitl wanted the return pass from Nurse and let him know afterwards.
Some nice shots from the point here…..very juicy rebounds
We really need Shawn Horcoff right now
or Ryan Smyth! Those rebounds are succulent
they’re shooting and that’s a very good sign.
Nurse hit the post.
Omg – 89 for the Kings is hooking and getting his arm around (holding?) Hyman behind the net. No call.
I don’t like everything about Kane’s game, but he is very good at getting the puck out when it comes to him inside the blue under pressure (and we’ve had our share of wingers in Etown who could not to save their life over the years).
McDavid’s brain looks foggy.
These defensive zone draws have been not contested well…
Our centremen is getting a tie….but we are not getting support
Nuge blows a tire or else he has a grade A chance.
I didn’t see it at first, but Ryan did hit it with a high stick. Right call (sadly).
Other than the high stick, that was a really nice sequence.
oof right call tho