In last night’s Game 6 loss to the Vegas Golden Knights, the Edmonton Oilers went to the well and the well was dry. There will be time to pick apart the final series of the season, and we’ll all make suggestions about how things can improve. This team, the McDavid-Draisaitl Oilers, had the look of a champion entering the playoffs. The team battled a strong Los Angeles Kings team and won, but the Golden Knights proved to be too much. Leon Draisaitl owned the beginning of the series, but Jack Eichel owned the heart. That’s going to take some time to digest.
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That one hurt. You bet it did. I think everyone, from management to players to fans and back again, thought this could be the year.
What happened? The Oilers began to fade in Game 5, and I do think that was the turning point. In that game, Edmonton was up 2-1 halfway through. Then a phantom hook by Philip Broberg and a careless whisper from Mattias Janmark’s stick and it seemed to turn the tide. There were other things.
Like what?Connor McDavid was 2-1 goals at five-on-five during the series when placed with Draisaitl. McDavid was 2-2 away from 29. That’s not fab. But here’s the kicker: Draisaitl away from 97 was 2-5 in the series and Edmonton was 3-7 when both were off the ice. The Oilers as a team were 9-15, after going 15-11 against the Kings.
Eichel, man. Yeah, he was 8-1 goals on-ice five-on-five. The rest of the VGK were 7-8. He faced Ceci most among defenders (33:10) and went 5-1 goals. He was 4-1 versus Nurse (31:30) and 4-0 against Draisaitl in 28:22. Also 5-1 versus Nuge. 4-0 versus Yamamoto. That line and pairing got scorched by Eichel.
Was Eichel fresher? Could be, I think the Golden Knights had an easier first-round series, that’s a reflection of winning the division.
Did McDavid and Draisaitl play too much? The Edmonton leaders (forwards) in the series by ice time in all strengths were Draisaitl (22:29) and the captain (22:16). Jack Eichel (19:31) and Mark Stone (18:58) led the VGK.
Skinner was awful. Skinner was poor, but didn’t get a lot of support. Adin Hill got far better support from the Vegas blue and forwards. Hill was also brilliant, stole a game and Skinner didn’t steal one. You could argue Brossoit going down with an injury was the turning point in the series. VGK turned it up in keeping the high-danger areas clear of enemies. Well done by them.
Skinner can’t be the starter next year. On the contrary, that’s the play here. During the regular season, over 50 games (a massive sample), Skinner posted a .926 save percentage. That tied him for No. 11 in the NHL (with Connor Hellebuyck). In the playoffs, his five-on-five save percentage was .898. Hellebuyck was .883 in the postseason against these same Golden Knights. Context is important and kicking the shit out of the goalie is what Oilers fans do every spring. You can do it, but you’ll go it alone.
You’re such a dink! They need to trade Skinner!! Today!! Before quitting time! No sir. I’m all-in on Skinner. If he ends up being sent out of town for Matt Hendricks, I will lose my mind.
Jack Campbell should have been the starter, his five-on-five save percentage in this series was 100! Eleven shots, eleven saves! Score effects had an impact, I think Skinner was the right choice. By the way, at five-on-five, in 219 minutes during this series, Skinner faced 37 high-danger shots according to NST. That’s 10 HD shots per 60 at five-on-five. Adin Hill faced 6.7 per 60.
The officiating was garbage. Yes. It was as bad as the Winnipeg Jets series in 2021. I said it during and after the series that the stripes put their thumb on the scale, and I think it happened again. Edmonton didn’t play well enough to make it a tragic issue, though. In my opinion.
Who do you point the finger at? I think we can safely say all of Skinner, Darnell Nurse, Cody Ceci, Leon Draisaitl, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Kailer Yamamoto and Nick Bjugstad had issues. Now, the Draisaitl line and Nurse pairing were asked to handle Eichel, but the assignment assigned was the task at hand. I think Draisaitl and Nurse need upgrades on the RH side.
Evander Kane was bad. He was hurt, and one of the things Edmonton has to figure out is how much he can do next season. Kane had some specific and devastating injuries this year. I don’t think you can avoid discussing those things. I will be interested in seeing a complete list of injuries.
Who do you think was hurt? All had issues I’m sure. Kane for sure, Ceci, McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, Kostin. I stated during the playoffs that for me Ryan Nugent-Hopkins didn’t look right, but there were no injuries reported.
What should management do? First, the owner has to decide if he wants to proceed with the current management. Ken Holland is one year away from the end of his contract, and I am not wrong in saying there are obvious and public tells that suggest a changing of the guard is a year or less away. There are people in the organization who might be the next GM. I’ll list Steve Staios, Brad Holland and Keith Gretzky here.
Then what? If the team is keeping Holland, then the GM has to decide what areas to address.
It’s a mess! No, that’s not true. If Kane is healthy, the club has a formidable five on the skill lines (97, 29, 93, 18, 91) and 75 percent of a strong top-four on defense (Ekholm-Bouchard, Nurse and a new partner). I also think the Oilers have their starter for the next several years in Skinner.
So, the foundation pieces are in place? Most of them, yes. I count 12 feature positions, top two lines and No. 3 center, top four blue and starting goalie. The only questions currently for me are No. 2 RW (I don’t think Kailer Yamamoto stays in that role) and No. 2 RD (Cody Ceci struggled with injury but it’s a big ask).
Anything else? Well, if Kane and Nuge are 100 percent then I think the left-wing depth chart is solid, but you’d like a solid backup option. Edmonton has Warren Foegele on the roster, and Dylan Holloway played with the team most of this year. I think the left-wing situation is solid not spectacular.
And center? Spectacular. McDavid, Draisiatl, Ryan McLeod is a trio up the middle Edmonton should be confident in for next season.
Right wing? It’s pretty good. Zach Hyman is a helluva player, Klim Kostin is going to slide in there somewhere and I’d bring back Derek Ryan.
Who wouldn’t you bring back? For me, Nick Bjugstad and Mattias Janmark are good pros but retaining them is counterproductive. I’d like to see Noah Philp and Raphael Lavoie on the team this fall, so making room is important.
Whoa! Too many rookies! I think they’re ready. There’s an article coming out later today at The Athletic shining light on those two, and others. One specific player had a tremendous season, I’ll wait for it to publish and put a link up in the comments section.
This was a wasted season, you prick. Say it, coward! No, that’s just not so. Edmonton has a starting goaltender, developed in the system, who was a nominee for the Calder Trophy. Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod stepped into feature roles. The trades for Mattias Ekholm and Klim Kostin were absolute winners. I believe the signing of free agents Evander Kane and Brett Kulak were solid moves. I will push back strongly, even on a day like today when the mood is grim, on that ‘wasted season’ nonsense. Edmonton is close, you have to know that’s true.
What would your roster look like? First, I think the team has to add a solid partner for Nurse. Scott Mayfield looks good versus elites, I’d have him on my list. I do think the Oilers need to offload some cap, and that might be Yamamoto, Ceci, Foegele or two of the three.
Then what? Sign RFA’s Bouchard, McLeod, Kostin, Philp and Lavoie. Sign all of them to NHL contracts, that’ll save a little cap room from Philp and Lavoie. Sign Bouchard long if you can but it’ll be a bridge.
Then then what? Bring back Derek Ryan.
Where does Broberg play? Third pair, RH side with Brett Kulak. Vincent Desharnais is No. 7. That’s first blush, we have 45 days until free agency.
Who replaces Yamamoto? A veteran winger with size, skill, attitude and two-way acumen. A bully.
So Bill Guerin. Damn straight.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’ll have a busy show, 10-2 today on TSN1260. The Oilers post-mortem. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Does the Oilers/Holland commitment to over ripening prospects remain as money becomes to tight to mention? Or does Holland fill the gap with past prime aged players?
My bet is on the latter. For instance can Lavoie beat out Ryan for a roster spot?
Marchessault. 5’9’ and 32 years of age. He looked like a million bucks when he scored a natural hat trick in game six. If he were an Oiler, he would have already been mangled by the Knights.
Harpers Hair
May 15, 2023 10:34 pm
The Conn Smythe Trophy looks like a real horse race.
Roope Hintz 19 points
Matthew Tkachuk 16
Jack Eichel 14
Old Man Pavelski 1.25 PPG in only 8 games played
Perhaps a goaltender steps up. Aidan Hill leading the way at .934.
Mayan Oil
May 15, 2023 9:28 pm
…and the Conference Finals are set. Vegas/Dallas, Carolina/Florida. I hate three of the four teams with a white hot heat for various reasons, so by process of elimination…. GO Panthers!!!
Or 4 Canadian coaches that can get their teams playing structured hockey without stifling offense if they have enough talent?
Scungilli Slushy
May 15, 2023 8:45 pm
The Stars win. I have noticed over time that they draft a certain forward a lot. Big guys that have even G and A totals and usually can skate. Not timid types. Shooters. Holland has been heading this way
After scoring Heiskanen, Oettinger and Robertson all in one draft, they went on a tear of selecting smaller skilled scorers in Mavrik Bourque, Wyatt Johnson and Logan Stankhoven and then in the 22 draft their first 4 picks were all defensemen.
Their 18 and 19 first round picks Thomas Harley and Ty Dellandrea took a while but are now contributing.
Wyatt Johnson was picked right after Xavier Bourgeault in 2021.
Thomas Harley is playing the bottom right pairing with 7 points in 13 playoff games. He was picked 10 spots after Broberg in 2019.
Mavrik Bourque scored 20 goals and had 47 points in 70 games in the AHL this year. Picked 16 spots after Holloway in the 2020 draft. Right hand centre. Holloway has 0.58 points per game in the AHL over the past two seasons vs Bourque 0.7.
At any rate, amongst the reasons for the Oilers getting eliminated these playoffs (poor goaltending, passengers (Nuge, Hyman, Kane), poor top-paring (Nurse-Ceci), the other reason is not enough talent pushing from recent high picks (Bourgeault, Holloway, and Broberg).
I don’t buy it. The Oilers slow-play talent now, and Broberg specifically is tracking well. I will admit that both Holloway and Bourgault appear to be shy offensively, but I’m not certain that’s the player of the team’s development model.
Edmonton has quality coming. I’m convinced of it.
Victoria Oil
May 15, 2023 8:21 pm
I think Kevin Bieksa nailed it last night when he said that if you had some kind of simulator based on how the teams played, the Oilers would have won more than 50% of the time.
Natural Stat Trick supports this as the xGF% were 53.4% 5-on-5 and 54.4% all situations, in the Oilers favour.
I would attribute VGK winning due to a combination of better goaltending and (as Chelios is a Dinosaur, Bruce McCurdy and others have pointed out) luck.
Randomness is a very underrated part of life, financial markets and sports, especially playoff series.
This is all true. So good investors minimize luck and don’t lemming around the markets. Good teams do as well. There are some truths in hockey that you can’t miss. If you want to do great things
All 4 teams could win it but I’m leaning toward Vegas because of their rock solid D and forward depth.
However, Oettinger and Bobrovsky are capable of winning a series by themselves.
Not sure yet.
Solly
May 15, 2023 7:52 pm
I recorded the game last night due to Mother’s Day supper and I wore my jersey to the feast…as I knew it would be the last time I wore it this season. I knew we were going to lose last night. My bro-in-law asked what I felt about the game at the supper table, and I told him we were going to lose. The reaction on his face was complete confusion. I never predict Oiler failures…never. But last night I just knew…our season was ending earlier than we all think it should have.
Truth be told, it made for watching the loss more comical. Vegas scores 20 secs into the game and I chuckled. McD comes back to tie it a min later, and then Fogs puts one in to give us the lead. At that point, I still knew. This game was going to turn into a pumpkin. Cue the second period…
The 2nd period starts and in true ’23 Oilers fashion…we coast around the ice for 20 mins waiting to start losing the game again. Vegas scores 3 goals in the middle frame and I knew. This lead wasn’t going to change hands…we had lost. So I chuckled again.
3rd period we decided we should try again cuz our season was at stake…and they did provide some pressure. But almost all of their shots/chances/attempts at offense were just sad. Shoot from everywhere, force the most obvious passes/plays and pray for a bounce or a call. No prayers were answered and the empty netter seals it. I knew…this game was going to be sad…but I didn’t cry. I chuckled.
I chuckled when they scored 20 secs into the game. I chuckled when they scored 3 unanswered goals in the 2nd. I chuckled when Marchessault got his hat-trick. I chuckled when Ekholm’s face blew up and no hands were in the air. I chuckled multiple times at the sad attempts we made in the last 10 mins of a do-or-die game to try and win a game we should’ve never lost…but I knew we’d lose. I just knew.
Laughing never hurt before…until I watched my Oilers this year in the playoffs.
Taking games off in the playoffs is unforgivable and if that’s on the coach to motivate and/or get the team focused…then looking at other options is justifiable. McDrai aren’t forever…Stanley Cups are.
The only consistency in the Oilers game this year…was rimming the puck around the boards to McDrai to create all the offense. When that’s covered, rim it around or bank it off the the boards to the Dman to take a no-traffic-in-front-of-the-net shot. Or shoot into some shin pads and lose possession. That was our offensive strategy. The lack of creativity in the offensive zone, with the two best players in the world, was very consistent…consistently predictable and incredibly pathetic to witness. Cassidy getting praise for shutting it down isn’t needed…he prolly chuckled when he realized these were our ONLY 2 OFFENSIVE STRATEGIES.
I’m not going to talk about the D-zone man-to-man strategy…it doesn’t work and either the forwards didn’t want to play it/commit to it or didn’t know how to. No other team in the NHL has the front of their net as wide open as often as ours does. The goal that sky-rocketed up in the air and landed on the goal-line…there were 2 Knights just standing there waiting to tap it in. COMPLETELY uncovered. Marchessault could have fanned on it and fell over, and the guy behind him would have had time to pirouette then tap it in. That goal sums up our d-zone coverage to a tee. I see two guys there ready to take the rebound away…but those two guys were from the other team! I had to chuckle…
I don’t hate Woody, I’ve actually quite enjoyed him and he’s given this team some success. But the strategies being employed are…seriously flawed.
I dont think the coach’s strategies are what got our players to destroy records this year…I think McDrai are just that good. It pains me to say it, but it might not hurt to look around for a new bench boss.
And finally…reffing/game management is truly the worst part of our beloved game and is now being accepted as ok by the media. No one will call the refs out in public and everyone just seems to defend it or spin it in a positive light now. Why? WHY!?!
It actually makes the best players unable to dominate the game like they should. How in the hell is that allowed? “Sorry, you’re just too good so we need to temper your abilities to make the game more fair.” This world of parity in the league makes me puke…I blame participation medals. If this trend continues, it will amplify, and that will make the best sport in the world unwatchable.
Something or someone needs to stop this….please. Pleeeeeeeeeease!
Sorry for the rant but it feels good to let it out. I love you LT and I love this blog for exactly times like these. No one else will listen to this/my garbage. Except all of you 😉
Well you said it with way more flair than I have. Woody may not be a strong head coach yet. But times a wastin’. That the core issues weren’t resolved from last playoffs is a no go for me. Especially the horrible net front and slot coverage, the things that make the GA so high compared to other strong teams
Inconsistency. Even in the great run they were getting lucky and relying on it too much. I don’t like the phrase ‘find a way to win’. Sounds like luck. ‘Know’ how to win is better. Much better
That with the better but still wobbly roster the coaches couldn’t get it up a level. Ekholm came in and stabilized things thus the run, but he also was dragged down with their structure
And agreed the duo going off, the PP, is on the talent. Because when things get tight and serious they can’t score. They don’t have the quality of players the 80’s guys had, no team does today. They need a plan and as far as I can see it’s not working
Holland needs to not be a timid Gardner. I prefer he moves upstairs before the next contracts come up. Need some hungry smart folks that do t have their HOF careers in the bag, like the players. Like Slats was
Some plants need TLC, many need a good hard pruning to thrive Year after year. Pro sports is not for the timid. Or the wrong headed or those that don’t adapt to the times
1 – Everyone online is shredding Kane, RNH, Yamamoto, and Hyman 5 vs 5.
Kane did not have a normal season, tough to get a rhythm. His fucking wrist was severed open, and he is most deserving of a pass. 18 even strength pts in 27 playoff games as an Oiler, even including this underwhelming performance
Hyman and RNH also weren’t good enough even strength. I don’t know what went wrong, but this seems like more of an anomaly. Injuries a factor? Either way, let’s not write them off like we did to Eberle.
Yams is not worth the contract or top 6 billing. But getting the GWG and helping the team 3 more home games in the playoffs may just have value to the franchise.
So sure, find a better solution (internal/external) to Yam in the top 6, but flushing the other 3 seems hasty and a surefire way to receive lesser value in return.
Also, sure Eichel’s line shredded the comp even strength in GF-GA, but it wouldn’t have been such a dramatic stat line without some puck luck and some replacement level goaltending…
2- Skinner can be the reason we made the playoffs and the reason we lost the 2nd round. Both can be true. He really had a dreadful playoffs and did not cover for the defensive miscues and/or opposition pushback that is inevitable in any playoff series, regardless of the matchup. I truly believe he was the difference in several games we lost, particularly the last 2. If Campbell didn’t play so well in game 4 we would have be staring down the barrel of an even worse disappointment in round 1. I understand he’s a rookie but there is precedent for success with this type, and he flat out disappointed. He also shouldn’t have been put in this position if the starting goalie kept the job in the regular season. I do think the best we can do is hope for Campbell to bounce back so there is a 1A/1B situation less year, with less hesitation to ride the hot hand in the playoffs. Buying him out is not a smart solution unless a stellar 1 mil/year goalie shakes loose on the market.
3- Find Nurse a better partner. Tough task. Hopefully it comes internally
4- If the PP is phenomenally good, it can cover for a poor even strength. That’s on the refs for not calling the series the way it should have been. I certainly wouldn’t have been complaining if the Oilers won the series and lost the even strength battle.
5- Firing Woodcroft? Really? They may have bowed out to the SC winners for the 2nd year in a row (pains me to say that, fucking weasels). While you can argue all teams battle injuries, Oilers didn’t have luxury of storing 9.5 extra mil, returning miraculously in time for the start of the playoffs…
3- Find Nurse a better partner. Tough task. Hopefully it comes internally
If I’m Holland, I think I would sniff around the D market, but based on our cap It seems more likely to circle back around the trade deadline. I keep thinking about whether Dylan Demelo is a good fit for Nurse’s partner if Winnipeg is selling. I’m comfortable subtracting Ceci and going in with Kulak on his off-side. I don’t want to go into the playoffs like that, but I’m happy to start the season.
So Ekholm who makes 6mil and change makes Bouchard considerably better. Can’t a 9.25 mil defender make his partner better too? It seems that there is always some sort of accomodation needed for Darnell. Do we need any more evidence that the Darnell contract is a disaster? My fear is they will overpay Bouchard too….
Most players need good players or the right type of players to play with. Even Drai needs it when the chips are down. Connor is a freak but while he was the only chance they had with Vegas imagine him with more healthy wingers or smarter players?
dangilitis
May 15, 2023 5:10 pm
Few things about the game (disclosure: was at game 6 with the family, so did not review all plays)
1 – First goal sucked the life out of the raucous building. Yes we got it back but Skinner’s poor play behind the net and some bad luck off Ekholm were responsible. Hard shot to save, but I think a better play from Skinner would have avoided it
2 – Hard to blame the Oilers for not trying or playing well while outshooting VGK nearly 2-1. 2nd period we were all annoyed, but even then they went back to work
3 – Skinner’s blooper goal was 0% on Nurse. An NHL goalie should not have made that an adventure and Nurse was not expected to be on the goal line. It was a tremendously poor play by Skinner and sucked the life out of the building, once again
4 – In a close game, with 2 close teams, reffing can have significant effects on the outcome. Just like in game 5, this was the case last night. My 8 y/o son saw the missed calls and was upset, for some perspective.
You’re not winning the Western Division with a Rookie Goalie that’s sporting a 5W-6L and a 883 batting average. We possibly only have 1 year left of the dynamic duo. If Leon isn’t resigning he will be dealt next Spring-Summer. Woody talk’s a good game and I’ll use the famous golf saying “You drive for show and you putt for dough” Cassidy out coached Woody.
Those are 2 somewhat contrasting statements.
The goalie is to blame, and yet the coach was outcoached?
While it can be both, I would argue VGK rode a PDO heater and beat a shaky goalie during the series, and that was more impactful than the coaching strategy.
If Campbell plays we win Games 6 and 7 Campbell had been playing lights out to end the year nevermind the dead cat bounce a team seems to get when a new Goalie has been inserted. I’ve heard the only reason Campbell looked good when called upon was score effects I call “Bullshit” Campbell made some great saves against L.A and Vegas. Skinner is pretty confident man but his body language was not good in Game 5. Woody had the fresh Goose Gossage in the bullpen yet he sticks with the done for dinner Skinner.
Gotcha. I agree that his biggest mistake was not giving Campbell the start in game 6, given how poorly Skinner played. For me it’s easy to critique in hindsight, but Campbell would have likely outperformed that low bar
Last edited 11 months ago by dangilitis
Mayan Oil
May 15, 2023 4:16 pm
At first blush this is what I see for next year. Focus is 5×5 scoring for lines 2-4 and overall defensive play. All moves made to support that.
At Center, McD, Drai,McLeod good FInd vet for 4th line center and as cover if not found in house. UFAs Bjugstad and Shore – Shore at 28 is too old to keep as a tweener, Bjugstad is a fallback if he is cheap enough to bury if need be and will take a one year deal RFAs McLeod (sign the man 3 yr deal max)Philp gets a chance to contribute – see what we got.
At LW Kane, Hyman, FOegele and Holloway under contract and will do well. Not the time to make any drastic moves here yet – if the elder ones (Kane/Hyman) have a drastic regression their decision comes next offseason, not this one. RFAs Kostin and Benson. Kostin useful as FWD 12-14 range right now, not sold on Benson UFA Bailey still a tweener at best at 27 – bye bye. Need room for SAvoie and Petrov to develop in the AHL as both are at least a year away from having a legit shot at NHL.
At RW is where the real challenge starts. Love Yamo’s heart and fiesty play but far too expensive for what he brings at current salary. Need upgrade – someone who is real difficult to play against for the middle 6 would do nice. Ryan is a very smart player, but a 36 year old player. UFA – one year deals from here on out , may get 1 or 2 more seasons from him and is a placeholder for now. Love him on that third line at same or slightly lower number. At 31 next year Janmark is what he is an past his peak. Was good placeholder in bottom six but is vulnerable.Lavoie Bourgeault will get a shot but we need more here, on all lines. We will see action on this spot in a big way. I hope for solid 2 way players, to mind the store a bit while C and RW do the heavy scoring. These men will have to have some reliable secondary scoring, but should be physical, good at goal suppression and smart, to a man.As much will as skill please.Lavoie Bourgeault/Tulio all look promising but I will be very happy if even one of them is ready for the jump this year, One of them might get a late season audition – let them percolate
Left D Nurse/Ekholm/Kulak are in. UFAs Koekkoek and Demers are both history Neimelainen is only cover remotely close to ready. Restock at least on or hopefully two depth players for cover.
Right D will be fun because of Bouchard extension. I have stated several times in other posts my reasoning for going either long or for a 1 year deal with an understanding, if not a pocketed long term extension for 2024/25 and forward to be unpacked after Jan 1.Going long right now is something that will mean we have to gut other areas of the roster to do so.Cover on the farm are Kemp/Wanner, I think adding another rookie to this unit will be difficult as two of the four incumbents are just finishing THEIR rookie years, so would be too much wobble for me. Others under contract are Ceci/Broberg and Desharnais. If any of these are moved it means another player coming back. I think it might be easier to trade across player groups rather than one player for a similar positioned player, so If you trade a forward go for a D in return, and vice versa, might be more manageable.
Goalie – this might be an interesting position. Skinner is already at the very least a very solid backup or 1b, and might be the starter we craved. The problem is Campbell. He has been unpredictable all year, I hope the shine from his playoff relief performances increases his value enough if the team decides to move on. I think they give him one more year before making the decision – he may become vulnerable by the trade deadline?
Bettman has stated there is a chance the Cap escrow debt could be done this year, but will certainly be retired by the end of next season in any case. Imagine this – if the escrow debt is retired now, the Cap increases to approx 87.5m Yamo at 3.1m gone. Campbell at 5m gone, That’s 12.1 m in cap space to resign Bouch, get a backup /1b goalie to tandem with Stu @ approx 2m, and repopulate the RW position. Doable I would think.
If it only increases by the 1m, it 9.1 m to address the needs, tougher, but we can certainly make a dent in our shopping list.Actual Cap room may vary if there are any other 2.5m + players swapped for cheaper help…but the idea remains the same.
Not to forget – Lucic/Sekera hits done, giving us 2.25 m more walking around money. LTIR hassle is finished as well.So, if we budget keeping our powder dry at 1M not committed so we can shop at trade deadline more, increase the above numbers to 10.35m to 13.35m cap room as the case may be.
I would love to run some rookies for regular season but upgrade at the deadline. By that I don’t mean move them out, but bring an experienced version in.
The lesson Im seeing these playoffs is mistake free veterans, playing defense first and patient hockey, they are winning the day.
Might be an option, but I wanted to show it is not the only option – we have more flexibility than some realize. The rookies need a chance to try, but we cannot go into next season relying on that as our only option. We need cover and I am sure Ken will provide same. Time to flush poor value contracts surgically to allow better asset distribution going forward. It is The Way.
OOPS I forgot Nuge! The numbers remain good though. Just forgot to mention him in the list. Makes our shopping list one player shorter but totals remain the same.
I can see us potentially accomplishing this on a Cap hit of 83.17 m next year if the Cap is 83.5 , resign McLeod, Bjugstad or replacement, Philp, resign Ryan to a 1 yr, Lavoie or similar cost player, replace Yamo/Janmark for two replacements at 5m total, 1 yr for Bouch with a pocketed long term contract to register on Jan 1, and replace Campbell with a good tandem goalie for Stu to take the load off at approx 2m per year.If the Cap rises more than the 83.5 we get to shop in stores with wider aisles as it were.
I have Bouch as a 1yr deal at 2.5m with a LT deal in pocket to file at Jan 1. Don’t forget, we can massage this by paying a large portion of the salary as a signing bonus which goes into the 2024/25 cap as a bonus overage, as Boston did last year with two of their players. So we can massage the deal to get a 2.5 hit for 2023/24 if needed through this mechanism. If we don’t get teh Cap increase to 87.5 this year, it will certainly hit that level next year and we will still be one offseason away from worrying about Drai. All doable.
I stand corrected. Marchand was a performance bonus, not a signing bonus. I misremembered the circumstances and thought the signing bonus could go into bonus overage for the next year. My bad! Good catch HH. I give credit where due.
However, the idea of a 1 yr extension with a multi year in the desk drawer to file after jan 1 still holds and can be used to massage the 2023/24 cap hit as necessary, A 2.5m one year deal is still achievable – just add a signing bonus to the multi year deal to compensate the player. Say they want 3.5 on a 1 yr or 7 on an 8 year. Counter with 2.5 on 1 and a deal in the desk drawer for 7 at 50/m total (or 8 @ 57m total ) as the case may be….
I love Nuge on 3c, but one of our C can move to wing, a LW can move to RW if needed there. there is flexibility. For arguments sake, my spreadsheet hs 8W and 6 C to account for the 14F total. Easier for a C to move to W than vice versa.
If anyone is interested, I can do a cost breakdown by position/contract status to show my work. I did not post it in total here because it is a long read. I can post each position separately to show it in bites and one post to show the aggregate numbers as well if there is demand for it.
If you want to see it I have no problem posting another wall of text jaja. Ask and it will be so. Don’t ask, and I will refrain from burdening you with too much math.
Last edited 11 months ago by Mayan Oil
jtblack
May 15, 2023 2:16 pm
Well ……
This OIlers team finished the Reg season 18-2-1? Went to the 2 round, and the fan base is dissapointed. THIS SHOWS HOW FAR THE OILERS HAVE COME.
A full season of Ekholm will set the course for a better playoff team next year.
You guys all have good ideas, some clear roster needs and upgrades.
IMO This is an excellent team. I stay the course and definitely add at the Deadline next yr. This team is close …..
Boston had one of the most dominant regular seasons the NHL has seen in some time.
Like the Oilers 2nd half, nobody will remember it though.
Harpers Hair
May 15, 2023 2:13 pm
Just listening to Ray and Dregs.
Ray makes the point that as the payoffs went along Woodcroft stopped trusting his bottom 6 and overplayed Connor and Leon so Eichel was fresher as the series progressed.
Going forward, he says the Oilers must find trusted bottom 6 players who can outscore.
I think this is a valid point. This is an instance where it appears the coach is to blame for the lack of trust. In the regular season the bottom 6 did outscore, yet the coach still limited their icetime when he needed to keep it consistent in the playoffs.
Every single time over the last two years, when the Oilers were going into a slump, Coach overplayed the top players. Every single time, it failed. The way out was when the whole team got together, got icetime, and played their way back.
Woodcroft lived this, but can’t help himself.
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
May 15, 2023 2:13 pm
Fun fact – Michael Jordan didn’t win a Championship until he was 28.
From his first Championship at 28 through his last playoff appearance at 35 his scoring stayed within a 4 point range (his last season he scored more than his first), he averaged over 41 min/g in each run and his big stats were within 3-4/game each season.
Furthermore, he won all of his NBA Finals and 4/5 regular season MVP awards after age 28 and he won 5/10 scoring titles after age 28 Remarkable consistency at the highest of levels through 35.
Superstar core teams rarely breakup, at least not in their primes. The 80’s Oilers, and to a lesser extent the Mario Pens, being the exception rather than the rule. They usually age out together. Detroit, Colorado, New Jersey, Dallas (shudders), Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, Chicago, L.A., and Tampa set to.
Worth remembering these two things in the weeks to come.
The Window has barely opened, nevermind closing.
Now they’ve tasted defeat when they should have went further. We’ll find out next year if its similar to the Bulls in 1990 before the Pistons rang them up again.
Please dont compare hockey and basketball. In basketball there are not two sets of rules. The 80’s Oilers had the best players on one team, the Pens were stacked with Mario and Jagr leading the charge, Colorado and Detroit were also stacked teams. If you want valid comparables, the Hawks, Kings, Lightning, and Pens fit. All with multiple cups in a salary cap era. The Oilers are nowhere near these teams because they have little depth and an inability to play defence. Furthermore, if you compare the Oilers’ defence with those teams it’s like comparing a station wagon to a Ferrari.
Yea I know they were stacked teams. Stacked teams with Superstar Core’s that stuck around as a core for 20 years or so.
That is my whole point.
And yes I understand you are sore, sad and angry but four straight hundred point seasons is pretty damn good despite your anger. Its where teams who contend end up before winning. Go back and take a look at standings in years previous to Cup wins from all those teams and you’ll see.
winchester
May 15, 2023 2:00 pm
Also LT, is there an Athletic write up on Broberg? Im interested, as Im not seeing what others seem to be seeing.
Money aside, if we could bring in another Ekholm type for Broberg I would make that trade.
Next year is go time for Broberg. You don’t draft him where you did and then give up on him (your first pick after you became GM) unless there is a serious flaw.
Broberg’s problem is he needs to play more and was hurt this year. Need to give him a chance.
The difficulty for me would be to determine what he becomes, what is his potential. Klefbom? Maybe but right now he could just as easily fizzle. He is a long way from a playoff top 4.
He also has good value.
So not giving up on him, but if his best games are 3-4 years out, maybe swap the value for what we need now.
Pretty unpopular sure.
Lets say a cap strapped team trades a coveted top4 d man, retaining salary for a cheap young cost controlled dman.
We have Nurse – Mayfield (todays suggestion)
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Desharnais
We would need some cover but Niemo should be passable 3rd pair
Sounds promising but we can’t sign up for that next year. So keep Ceci as the stop gap/fall back or is there a better way? I don’t think Kulak at RD is the answer.
The OIlers are out of LTIR. If Broberg doesn’t progress fast enough, one can add a D at the trade deadline. And worse case, one still has Ceci.
Broberg can defend and more physical tools than Barrie, Bouchard, Ceci, and Bear…all three who occupied that spot. And unlike any of those four, Broberg can probably actually help Nurse. It wouldn’t be a one sided pairing.
Broberg battling Eichel on the boards (and getting a penalty for the referee not believing a rookie could do that).
Bouchard has never done that.
Broberg pretty much always battles his guy in front of the net. Bouchard, not so much. Bouchard often loses or never identifies his man. Not so witih Broberg.
Broberg was the best defensive defenseman in his Swedish class, plus or minus one year.
I’d bring him back for the McLeod Ryan Foegele line alone. They went to work shift after shift. If McLeod could develop even a hint of finish they’d be walking real tall right now.
To me the Oilers lack enough game smarts. I also think coaching played into this. They had a 5v5 issue against good defensive teams and didn’t put the right tactics in play. Cycling on its own isn’t enough. You have to make the right plays over and over
Ryan does it
Washingtron
May 15, 2023 1:55 pm
Here’s another way to look at it. If the Oilers were allowed to miraculously add an additional $8M/yr player for the playoffs without it affecting their cap, maybe they would have had the missing piece to match up better.
Dunno why that totally hypothetical scenario came to mind. Just fun to muse!
Scungilli Slushy
May 15, 2023 1:36 pm
I would love for Woody to challenge the Duo to view their offensive success next season through the lens of outscoring, they have had enough records, they need some cups now
Today it’s more tactical partly because of the cap
Reja
May 15, 2023 12:54 pm
I’ll try the glass have filled. The best part of the Oilers losing is we don’t have to listen to Singh and Louie. Replace Singh with the girl that does the Wrangler games as she’s able to understand the game better. Then replace Louie with Cassie If her husband takes over as G.M of Calgary and with Cassie being a fierce competitor it would make for some interesting commentary especially in the BOA Games.
She wasn’t removed she left for more money with ESPN and TNT. Cassie knows the game and is very relatable as long as she’s not doing Calgary games then her bias for her Hubby is over the top.
Admiral Ackbar
May 15, 2023 12:43 pm
I’m just sad. I loved this year’s iteration and to watch them gassed and anemic at the end was heartbreaking.
That missed highstick of Ekholm with 6min to go was atrocious. Those calls are supposed to be as auto as over the glass delay of game. That was a critical moment that would have changed those last 5mins considerably.
I love this team and this sport. I hate the NHL. I’m not sure why I keep watching sometimes. It’s like being in love with an emotionally abusive lover.
Yamamoto is characterized as a ‘successful draft pick’ because of the career production he’s posted. Is that reasonable?
My take is that his production, like Puljujarvi’s, was primarily the result of the opportunity the player was given (roster spot and linemates) and not primarily because of the offense he himself created. A complimentary player pick with enough skill to cash albeit without any consistency.
First rounders are drafted with a high ceiling in mind and Yamamoto’s ceiling (particularly as a playoff producer) was limited from the second the selection was announced because of his small size. That known weakness has now come home to roost and at a time when you needed the McDavid cluster firing on all cylinders, you’ve got a key draft asset identified as part of the problem not the solution. That is not success. Calling Yamamoto a successful pick at the same time he’s underperforming a relatively modest contract is framing a definition for success based on things other than winning imo.
It reminds me of the DoD when our 1st rounders were fast tracked onto the roster, immediately started drowning and developing bad habits, and were eventually characterized as ‘successful draft picks’ based on them hitting a games played mark.
Definitions for success are important, particularly if you’re a team serious about winning the Cup. If you’re building excuses into your KPIs to justify bad decisions, you’re doomed to fail against the very best.
Imo one of the best aspects of a data driven culture is the data doesn’t reinforce the narratives, it challenges them and more often than not, dispels them. The Oilers labour under far too many narratives with players like Nurse, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Campbell. If they learn anything from Vegas, it should be to become more analytical and less biased and prone to narratives. The window is shrinking. The decisions made from hereon have to be unemotional, calculated, surgical and correct.
It’ll cost a asset or a mid range pick to rid ourselves of Yamo and since we have very little in the cookie jar on both fronts. Yamamoto will therefore be bought out.
MacCrimmon is the anti Holland. He wants to win and if they want something different they change it asap. Holland would have signed Fleury to a big long no trade expensive deal because to me he’s sentimental. Mac parted ways probably because the stats say he isn’t that good anymore
The Oilers have a few players that aren’t great at thinking the game and can’t handle the puck well and can’t shoot reliably. They make constant defensive mistakes and aren’t creative offensively. Many teams would upgrade that this summer. It takes more than skating fast even if I love that
I just don’t get how an NHL player doesn’t love shooting. It’s the best part of the game for me
Why didn’t Woody play Holloway? He would of brought energy youth look at Knies 20 years-old in Toronto he was fun to watch. Other players around the Holloway pick at 14 there’s Jarvis, Mercer, Boldy Lundell etc. Woody didn’t have the sense to insert Holloway because he’s a Rookie Winger yet he plays the shit out of a tired Skinner.
I think Holland avoids stressing young guys out. But there’s a balance
YYCOil
May 15, 2023 12:38 pm
Disappointed but hopeful
Next years team is basically set. Some adjustments I would bring in and some internal growth areas.
1.PP2 needs more success on this team, the historically best power play is a beautiful story, but 15-20 PP goals from our 5-10th best offensive players is a trade that will benefit team’s 5v5 success.
2.Kulak can succeed as first pairing right side defender this is a saving vs. a traded Ceci and provides Broberg and Vinny another 5 minutes a game as the third pairing.
3.Campbell has to play and be more effective next year.
Kulak can exceed as 1RD? Is this a typo? Cause he can’t even succeed at 2LD.
Reja
May 15, 2023 12:29 pm
Woody needs to be fired and a more aggressive Coach needs to come in and win a Cup next year. Start Campbell and Holloway instead of Yamo we win this series. Skinner could not handle the moment in Vegas and it was obvious he was Mentally and Physically tired. The 1st Goal sucked all the life out of the building last night. I believe the Calder nomination for Skinner clouded Woody’s decision making. If we don’t win a Cup next year Leon is not sticking around and if Leon goes Connor will follow suit. We have a short window and it got tighter because of Woody’s refusal to line match and not start a fresh Campbell.
At some point I will put all my thoughts together.
Next season looks to be status quo in goal. Skinner and Campbell, unless there is a cap floor team interested in Campbell.
If there is a deal for Ceci, I would take it. If no deal is available, I am fine with Ceci and Desharnais battling for #3RD.
I would run Broberg on the right side with Nurse all year, and add a D at the deadline if needed. Or if Ceci cannot be upgraded in a trade.
The OIlers are out of LTIR, so they can add a RD and a top 6 forward at the deadline if needed.
Bag of Pucks
May 15, 2023 11:57 am
As you would expect, LT is hitting the ‘lack of an analytics department’ narrative hard this morning.
I wonder if LT appreciates that an analytics driven org would likely move Nurse and replace him with two nonfamous D at $4,5M each that bigdata reveals as dominant box defenders?
Would any of the final 5 teams left deploy Nurse in their D corps at his current cap hit? I doubt it. Nurse is an inefficient usage of cap resources. This is not a player that an analytics driven GM would build around as a core asset imo.
That Nurse contract is like Lucic, almost immovable. The Oilers will never win a cup with his contract here unless the cap goes up 10 million in 2 years. He has far too many brain cramps on defense. When I saw the highlights, he’s on the ice for 3 Vegas goes, swimming on one of them because he can’t sense danger or move the man and stick from in front.
I’m mystified. You’ve defended this contract as reasonable given the direct comps at the time of signing, but this reasonable market value contract is also unmovable?
How have we we arrived at this point? Is that Darnell simply underperforming the contract since he put pen to paper?
“dominant box defenders”
Ricki?
Kidding. Kidding.
Opposition players get behind him & gain inside position on him way too much, way too often.
If the new Analytics department wants to bring in a “box defender” for less than $5M & spend the cap savings on Yammo upgrade, who is saying no?
replace Nurse and add 2 lesser dman and you will lose your leadership and gain nothing.
Kulak came from a Stanley cup finalist D core. They were formidable. Ekholm similar.
They both look poorer in Edmonton’s system. The only one who has not changed his smothering coverage is Desharnais. Granted he may not be as talented in other ways, but his smothering defense is valid.
Im not saying The Oil should abandon their offence game, that is their blessing, and needs to continue.
Im saying their losses come from their defensive tactics and defensive skill as a team. Its just not good enough. So many goals against.
Back to trading Nurse, that wont solve the real issue. .
Leadership? You mean the not knowing the instigator rule and taking himself out of a must win game leadership? Or the head butting a guy and taking himself out of a crucial game leadership?
Nurse is reactionary and instinctive and needs a lot of coaching. Probably always will.Are they? Can Manson? Huddy?
winchester
May 15, 2023 11:47 am
I agree there is a lot to digest still.
For me, I would start by replacing the coach who is responsible for the defensive system.
It has been the major team weakness for at least 2 years. It is not just the players, who are certainly offensive minded, but it is also the system itself. Its not working.
Kings played a very good defensive system and for that reason alone they challenged the Oilers. Knights played an excellent defensive game and beat the Oilers.
Oilers continue to break down defensively, they lose their man often, time after time. This is the number one reason behind their loss. Knights pick up their man. every. single. time. Veteran team playing a sound system, (mostly) mistake free.
I agree that Oilers D breakdowns were a huge part of the problem. It’s been going on for years with different coaches too. Hard to comprehend why Nurse consistently chases the play and Drai consistently fails to back check year over year. Coaches? Systems? Players?
If you want to contend year in and out it’s more about D than O. The cap comes and clips your tall poppies every so often. You can’t rely on O over time. Not to mention we’ve seen it not show up in important moments
Cassidy looked like a buffoon but he ate Woody’s lunch. His team was more focused (that’s coaching ) and they survived a lot of key injuries winning the west. They played as a team well and they beat us. We continue to play erratically as a team
Every team still around has coaching staffs that have their teams playing sound structured hockey game in and out. It mitigates the luck side and allows their goalies to play their best
MushedPeas
May 15, 2023 11:39 am
That’s it in a nutshell: Not tragic.
Oilers didn’t bring enough to the last two games for this to be a travesty. It was there, they had the horses. Bottom line: They did not overcome.
In the end, I can’t bring myself to blame the refs. This team just did not deliver. A true Cup contender needs to be dominant. Other than a game here or there, I never thought we were dominant against either LA or Vegas.
I don’t know hockey well enough to know why playoff hockey is so different. But Boston, Colorado, Tampa, the Rangers, and Toronto are also wondering the same thing.
LMHF#1
May 15, 2023 11:36 am
Just to make things even more interesting here today:
Goaltending is the most overrated aspect of hockey. All but the most elite goaltenders don’t win games – if you wonder why a journeyman can “beat a team” it comes down to bad shooting.
AND
Throwing up ‘luck’ all the time is intellectually lazy. I’d suggest strongly if you ask any high level athlete or Coach they will not with any sincerity ever refer to it ultimately impacting the result, barring of course the occasional comment when the immense frustration of a loss is palpably beating within them in the immediate moments after. And even then they rightly say it was on THEM.
gogliano
May 15, 2023 11:25 am
With respect to the season, I share the opinion that I think Woody got outcoached in both the micro sense (see, e.g., the matchups) and the macro sense (see, e.g., running McDavid/Drai & the rookies to exhaustion). On the latter point, I think there’s a comparable to be made to Boston pushing for a regular season record and then not having the juice to elevate their game come playoff time.
Be that as it may, I’m with Dee Dee and others in that my appetite for the NHL grows smaller every year. My waning interest is due in no small part to the way games are being called and managed, DoPS shenanigans, and the way the league has been managed more generally (see, e.g., Arizona playing out of a college rink, or the Chicago debacle — good thing they didn’t have a practice infraction, though).
It’s basically become tune in to watch McDavid, but the disjunct between regular season and playoff hockey is all the harder to swallow for that reason.
dustrock
May 15, 2023 11:24 am
On the randomness issue – do the Oilers have a problem controlling their sticks more than other teams, or were we just unlucky to get so many high sticking penalties against us?
Like Game 5, down 4-3 in the third, Foegele makes a nice move into the Vegas zone and….high sticks the defender when deking. 4 minute minor, there goes the game. I kinda just shrugged my shoulders at that point.
I like Woodcroft a lot, but I’d grill him about a few things, the 97/29 combo, lack of rolling 4 lines, putting out the Bjugstad line against Vegas top line repeatedly, not adjusting Nuge’s line getting caved in repeatedly, not putting in Campbell.
People thought Game 6 was the time to start Soup, and it was, but one could argue it might have happened earlier in the series where it wasn’t an elimination game. Pulling your starter in 3 of the last 4 games of the series is not a good look.
All the complaints about reffing (horrid) and randomness (bad luck!) aside, the team doesn’t commit to defence enough. Yes the d corpse top to bottom had some bad moments, even Ekholm I thought wasn’t outstanding for much of the series, but like Godot, I saw too many fly-bys by the wingers.
If you aren’t scoring, you can at least commit every shift to back checking.
And the top wingers scored fewer goals than our bottom 6. That’s pretty much the series right there.
And for Drai, it was crazy to see him start with one of the all-time great playoff runs, to 1 point in the last 4 games. Did he run out of gas? Didn’t seem like the same player to me even before the Pietrangelo madness.
And for Drai, it was crazy to see him start with one of the all-time great playoff runs, to 1 point in the last 4 games. Did he run out of gas? Didn’t seem like the same player to me even before the Pietrangelo madness.
Yamamoto, the grest cooler. Yamamoto also effs up Draisaitl by being such a weak player in his own end, and the GA messes with Draisaitl’s overall game.
Draisaitl is the best passer (and top five shooter) in the league, and he continually got stuck with Yamamoto.
Over a year ago, I talked about how Yamamoto had to be moved down the roster if he was ever going to be an effective player. Now the only options are a trade for whatever one can get or buying him out.
Woody died on many hills here this spring – the RNH/Yamo infamous combo is the most perplexing of them all.
Well, that and having Nick Bjugstad greatly elevated to a top 6 role.
Woody’s defenders have never explained the Bjugstad thing.
I believe RNH/Yam still received more ice time that the hot 3rd line.
Last edited 11 months ago by McSorley33
Bag of Pucks
May 15, 2023 11:18 am
One of the really interesting thing about the Knights is how often they’ve fired the HC despite being a relatively successful club. Gallant, Deboer, Cassidy. This team doesn’t hesitate to change the voice, direction, and tactics. So much for the value of continuity.
Is this an analytics thing? Is there a school of thought that believes staying with one HC too long makes you predictable? Whatever the rationales driving it, it’s certainly a unique approach and the exact opposite of being complacent.
You have to be on the leading, bleeding edge of risk in order to compete for championships, or make a ton of money, or invent something amazing.
This involves making decisions on things before the other 99% of people are comfortable. That’s why there’s value to it.
And then then other part is accepting that sometimes these things don’t work and immediately rebooting rather than accepting some sort of long turn around adventure that doesn’t work.
Every year I tell myself the reffing can’t/won’t get worse, yet it does.
The NHL establishes and promotes a product which they have every right to present, market, govern as they wish, as is their right as purveyor’s of said product.
But I as a consumer of this form of entertainment have to decide whether or not my investment of money, time and emotions have enough value to myself in order to keep an interest in the product being offered.
The League has decided that they value knuckle dragging and thuggery over skill. Rules are selectively being enforced which directly decide the outcome of games.
The refs will spend 20 minutes looking at single frames of video deciding if a puck is 1mm in or out of play but willfully ignore someone getting smashed in the face with a stick.
The last few summers I have decompressed and taken time to reassess continuing to follow the NHL and I will do so again this summer.
But every ounce of skill was taken behind the woodshed and boot stomped this year during the playoffs and what is remaining at this point is frankly ugly and I have no interest in watching any more.
The NHL needs to start reviewing penalties. I don’t have a tinfoil hat on that there is some anti Canada conspiracy, i just think the refs make mistakes when the pace of the game is so high.
Its tough though as infractions happen during the course of play and the whistle never goes (Case in point Ekholm last night) Is someone watching off the ice and blows the play dead in these situations? A challenge type option?
I think it’s tough to implement but the NHL needs to figure it out. The reffing was a joke this year
Staios would be so Oilers. Maybe bring back Gretzky to coach?😆
McSorley33
May 15, 2023 10:48 am
It does not look like Eichel and Las Vegas are leaving the Pacific anytime soon….so if you are blaming luck and randomness for what transpired- that is not very encouraging for next year’s playoffs.
All their key players are locked up and none are really on unreasonable contracts save for Robin Lehner who would be an easy buy out candidate.
Their goaltending will be somewhat up in the air as all of Broissoit, Hill and Quick are UFA.
Martinez is getting a little long in the tooth but has only one season left at $5.25 million while McNabb is 32 but is signed to a very team friendly $2.85 million for another two seasons.
If they successfully sort out their goaltending and have reasonable health, their tremendous depth should make them strong contenders.
We need a solution to our 2nd line losing quite badly.
Its not a tinker around the edges kind of problem.
Leon needs 2 new wingers ( Kostin? ) Maybe Holloway?
This issue is not as easy to solve as people think.
For the first time in a over a decade – the problem is not the bottom 6.
I find finding 2 top 6 NHL forwards to be a tall task to solve.
Oil2Oilers
May 15, 2023 10:48 am
Can Darnell Nurse be the solution on the Right side defense?
He has the mobility to play the week side and he might choose to pass it for an icing less on his back hand.
Broberg is supposed to be the top #4 LHD of the future why not let him start now.
It would be easier than finding/affording a RHD replacement for Ceci.
teddyturnbuckle
May 15, 2023 10:46 am
Disappointing end to the season but I do think this Oilers team has the potential to win a cup in the next few years. At the end of the day the team still gives up too many goals and it killed them. I couldn’t help but notice Vegas players commenting on how the Oilers play man to man and eventually they can beat their guy to the net. I like Woodcroft but this team can’t play this style and be successful in the playoffs. Every year with the same core they get lit up for 4 goals a game when the pressure is on. Vegas formed a collapsed box in their zone and the Oilers couldn’t penetrate it. The Oilers on the other hand chased players all over ice until no one was defending in front of their net. Need to simplify that system. Veterans like Nurse still running out of position.
Goaltending. I felt bad for Skinner seeing him on the bench. He started all 12 playoff games and in the end his game completely fell apart. Its Campbell’s fault for having such a crap season that the coach didn’t feel comfortable starting him in any playoff games. That being said It was clear Skinner was struggling and the coach didn’t adjust. Skinner was overreacting to every shot and losing position in his net. His puck handling was also very poor. I just felt that if Woodcroft started Campbell in game 6 he could have said to himself that he exhausted all options. It clearly wasn’t working with Skinner. He was pulled 3 out of his last 4 starts. No team advances deep into the playoffs with an .883 save percentage. I have to say I’m concerned about coming back with the same tandem next year and expecting both goalies to improve. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. If the Oilers get to the trade deadline next season and their goaltenders are not looking good then Holland with have to pick up a rental goalie to add some insurance. The organization can’t let McDavid die on the vine in his prime because of one bad goaltending contract.
Jack Eichel was fantastic in this series and put on a clinic defensively. I think McDavid and Draisaitl are going to feel the sting of being outplayed 5 on 5. As good as these guys are on the power play their 5 on 5 game still needs improvement. Not just those two either. Deep into the second round I saw guys flying the zone regularly before the puck had left their end. It’s concerning that Woodcroft still hasn’t been able to reign this in.
In the end I think it is clear who wasn’t able to elevate their game in the playoffs and Holland should be able to swap a few guys out this offseason. I’m thinking another Ekholm type trade. Better luck next year.
DBO
May 15, 2023 10:42 am
Kulak was a perfect 3 LD, but may be too costly, especially if it’s time for Broberg at a few mill less and you need that money to shore up other areas
Foegele showed his worth. keep him
Yamo is too costly for not enough on the scoresheet. Does a lot, but he isn’t top 6 and will make more then $3 mill next year. Too costly for his production.
Kulak
Ceci was hurt probably, and overwhelmed. Needs to move on if we take the next step.
targets UFA
Mayfield is top of my list, but will come in around $4-5 million probably (remember that Bouchard \gets a new deal starting in the 4’s if bridged, the 7’s if long term)
Connor Brown. get him on a discount, but he brings everything Yamo does but will cost less.
But Kulak and Yamo have value, so you could use them in a hockey trade for sure and address top 6 W or bottom 6. No time to hoard 1st’s, this is an all in summer. the 1st plus Yamo and any other kid is worth it to give this group 2 more years of running for the cup.
I like him, but as a 3LD he is costly. And with Broberg you either play him or move him. And Kulak will have more value to someone as a 2LD and help us address other needs.
Sucks, but asset management will be huge this off season. And made easier if Holland steps back from GM and someone else moves in, then there is no bias or loyalty to recent draft picks or young players.
At this exact time, I would keep Kulak and move Broberg. It would not save money but it would transfer Broberg’s value into another asset, perhaps right wing.
Broberg is young, plays even younger. I still see a Bambi. Hes closer to becoming Puljujarvi than Kulak.
I also like him but agree with whichever poster: Move on, play Bro the whole year to see what you got, upgrade as needed at the deadline.
It would be something if in addition to that and beforehand, they could both extend Bouch and upgrade another defender. That assuredly cuts into the forward depth, but Oil D got exposed this series imo, and that includes backtrack contributions from forwards such as Yamo, who tho good at times I can’t see returning.
Elgin R
May 15, 2023 10:41 am
Thanks to LT and all who made the year enjoyable by posting on the Lowetide blog. It is my belief that the team will be better next year and win Stanley. Have a great summer everyone!
I had some quick thoughts on Twitter and tried my best in 280 characters to sum this series up. Bear with me on an expanded version.
1) This team was a team that had two helicopter lines (no wings) for the entire playoffs. Just not enough from Nuge, Kane, Hyman, and Yamamoto. Injuries are a part of the life of an NHL player and for people to rely on that is an excuse and a tired one. Every team still in the playoffs has guys who are hurting. This top six is the easiest top six to play against in the entire league. Rick Bowness mentioned no pushback for the Jets in their series. This was textbook no pushback.
2) Cody Ceci had about as bad a playoffs as his regular season was and he needs to be press box material, trade bait, or shifted down to #6 or 7 on the depth chart. Nurse is the 9 Million dollar mistake that will continue to hamstring this team for the remaining 7 years of his deal and he will regress as he ages. He is not, and never will be a #1 d-man and no one will ever convince me of that.
3) It’s nice when rookies surpass expectations, but rookies tire after a long stretch, and fatigue plays a factor. Skinner and Desharnais will be better next season. They both just ran out of gas. It happens from peewees all the way up. Part of this, is bench management and Woodcroft should know this. I know that, and my coaching career is about as far from the pros as a cow to the moon. It’s called macro and micro cycles and if Woodcroft doesn’t know that, he’s not the guy to trust with young players. In Woodcroft’s defense, Holland failed, absolutely failed in signing Campbell, so what does Woodcroft do? Still, you can’t ride a rookie for that long and not expect them to get fatigued.
4) Woodcroft was totally outcoached this series by a coach who looked at the analytics and made adjustments. My goodness, there are people on Twitter who clearly showed how poor some players were playing against Eichel, but yet, time and time again, Woodcroft threw them out there like a WWI general throwing line of line of soldiers out as cannon fodder. The shine on Woodcroft has begin to diminish.
Anyway, that’s my take on it. If this same roster is intact next season, then expect the same result.
I haven’t been on here as much this past season, due to my increased involvement with BC Hockey on the Indigenous Inclusion Committee, and we’re doing great things. My involvement will only grow next season as my daughter at the ripe age of 10 has decided she wants to be a hockey player and she wants me to coach her. Maybe the coach will take over the crazy and I find the coaching keeps me sane.
This is why I disliked the Ekholm trade at the time, even though the player was (and is) obviously a great fit. Without Barrie, the trade meant that Desharnais would be logging plenty of playoff minutes. And it meant we were cashing in our chips in a year when we depended on a rookie goaltender. I hate to say that both of those concerns were vindicated.
Warning, long post alert: please feel free to skip along to either shorter or better observations.
I’m neither one to make the sky is falling argument nor am I one to go full pollyanna and suggest that everything is fine. To quote the corrupt mayor of Springfield, ‘It can be two things’ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKOQWbTdxy8).
I see the ‘it’s a wasted season’ argument, but not simply because they lost the series. That’s hockey, it happens. We know McDavid torched the league, Leon had the 2nd best non-McDavid season since the dawn of the cap era, Nuge & Hyman had career years and the team no longer has draft capital to cash in the future or the cap space to ensure the present foundation is…well.. present. To lose in the 2nd round after a regular season the likes of which we in Oilervillle (or in the Oiler diaspora like where myself and so many others reside) haven’t seen in ages hurts like hell, but there’s more to the story than one series.
There is an established core locked up for a couple more years, smart veteran players who were punched in the mouth and likely won’t want to ever taste their own blood again. They will learn, they will grow, but it’s going to take some serious financial gymnastics to keep the core in place, find a top 6 RW that hits like Sam Bennett and scores like him too, a top 4 RD who can stabilize Nurse the way Ekholm stabilizes Bouchard and a 4th line that can be counted on for more than 6-8 minutes in a close playoff series. It’s easy to talk about trading pieces like Yamo and Ceci, but given their performances this season relative to their cap hits. Actually moving them out to free up the space necessary to extend Bouchard and find their replacements in the top 6 and top 4 is the hard part. This set of problems is where the wasted season perspective makes more sense – taking a macro level view of the roster relative to the season; the strengths, the needs and the money long term combined with the Bostons and Colorados of the league bowing out early and one gets the sense that this really was the year.
Beyond the financial and roster construction realities, the team needs to figure out 5v5 play, and to my untrained eye, the issue is more defensively than offensively. The team can score goals when they’re healthy, but defending was a problem in this series and for long stretches of the regular season as well. At the end of the season, the team looked like it could handle anyone. You saw defencemen collapsing to the front of the net and clearing people from the crease – Ekholm especially, but in his case I wonder if it was more about him playing instinctively rather than playing within Manson’s system. A lot of the collapsing/crease clearing disappeared in the playoffs, with more defenders chasing the play, especially the Nurse/Ceci pairing. The teams I saw most, (LA, VGK & FLA by virtue of having attended games 2 & 5 here in Toronto and marrying into a Leafs-loving family) almost seemed to be playing a hybrid Ricki-box defence, (protecting home plate, for those readers who weren’t here for the days of Ricki the Bear’s many posts about defensive systems) with more mobility than I think our Bear-friend envisioned. FLA in particular were so quick to clear the crease and make sure Bobrovsky could see everything, and they have defenders capable of quick breakout passes, long-distance lob passes and the ability to break the cycle with ease (Gudas is a prick, but I’d love him in blue and orange). Too many players up high looking for a jail break, not enough emphasis on crease clearing or attention to detail in the slot.
Obviously 5v5 play in the O-zone was impacted by injuries in the top 6 that I’m sure we’ll learn about in due time, but even the Oilers best game of the series (game 4) wasn’t a complete game; it was a strong 40 minutes and then they let up for the final 20. That can’t happen. All season long the Oilers didn’t seem to show up on time or they would blow leads late. That simply can’t happen. especially come playoff time, and that’s on the players, not the coaches or management.
The team is at a very interesting place; a year out from the Draisaitl decision combined with being a year out from the alleged cap jump. A roster that looks great on paper but couldn’t compete 5v5 with a Vegas team with superstars of their own and more depth up and down the roster, but is also a roster that is a lot older than I think we all realize. Hyman, Kane, Ekholm & Nuge are all on the wrong side of 30; Leon and McDavid may be the exceptions to the aging curve as superstars usually are, but we as fans also can’t count on them to be at their supernova level peak for much longer. Nurse will be in year 10 next season. Where the team goes from here is a bit of a mystery.
This really was the year, with the record-setting power play, everybody in their prime, balance, and Boston/Colorado/Rangers/Leafs/Tampa eliminated. (It hurts just to write that last one – the path was easier than it’ll ever be.)
All season long the Oilers didn’t seem to show up on time or they would blow leads late.
Yeah, this team just can’t seem to play the way they need to. They weren’t dominant enough for long enough in the playoffs, and they continued to spot teams big leads.
In the end, I think Campbell over Kuemper was the fateful decision. Kenny has put together a good, good team, but goaltending was and is the achilles heel.
I see the same things. I would add that whatever plans they have offensively aren’t right. They are easily stymied by teams collapsing into the slot and not breaking down easily as the Knights did
The Oilers actually had better underlying stats than the Knights except one thing, scoring on their chances. The same issues were around all season even though it was masked by career years, every stats piece I saw has the same thoughts usually
NHL SID at ON pointed out what I mentioned yesterday. I see this as failure to score a system issue. I think they rely on the Duo too much to make things happen with skill. Other teams have a plan of attack that goes beyond getting the puck deep and banging it around until something opens up or whatever
The Knights were more effective on the rush finding open players and they finished. The Oilers made this too easy for them for sure. The Oilers flubbed a ton of these. On the cycle it was Ryan who made the kind of play that is needed against teams like Vegas. Foegele did his part and drove the net and Ryan hit him on time and it’s in
The other thing not happening enough was purposeful screens tips and shot passes. If the goalie is good and the team D is in position you have to do this or you can’t score reliably. Even PP sometimes. Also shooting for rebounds with people in the right place. This is coaching and the Oilers don’t do this methodically when they are in a tough game
Nurse is especially prone to taking shots from the point the goalie is set for with no Oilers there. Not going to score much from there doing that
Last edited 11 months ago by Scungilli Slushy
McSorley33
May 15, 2023 10:31 am
I am sorry – but I find it very,very disheartening that Eichel did not just
‘win’ the matchup. He outright *humiliated* the matchup.
Against the most prolific parts of our team- in their prime.
We can talk about a good season all we want.
We did not make it out of the 2nd round. ( nor even to a game 7)
I am not so sure that Connor and Leon alone lost the matchup vs Eichel. Barbashev and Marchessault supported Eichel while the wingers for Connor and Leon never did their expected part.
Maybe I am too much the glass half full type, but I see positive growth this year. We won 109 points in the regular season, traded for a beastly 2LD and saw Bouchard’s immense potential begin to emerge.
I don’t think firing the coaching staff or GM is wise and would hold course with some targeted moves. I would also focus on winning a cup to the potential detriment of the future. Specifically:
Consider trading Ceci and Yamamoto to St. Louis for Parayko (ask STL to retain some $). Give Nurse a big stay at home D type to help clear the front of the net.
Move Broberg to 3RD with Kulak. I like Desharnais as 7D – but we may have to trade him to stop the coaching staff from featuring him over Broberg.
Consider Janmark for 2RW. Keep Drai and Kane together and let Janmark be the 2 way winger to reinforce 200-foot play.
Make Holloway – McLeod and Foegele the 3rd line. Kostin and Philp and Lavoie for the 4th line (or 4th line wingers if you go 11-7)
We probably have to keep Campbell. I would offer Campbell to Chicago (who needs to hit the cap floor), but who do we replace him with? Skinner is great, but wore down from heavy usage in the 2nd half of the season. So did Ullmark in Boston….We need a relaible #2.
One last thing to add….Woodcroft and player leaders (McDavid, Draisaitl, others) have found answers to problems facing this team. I have faith that both he, and they, will learn from this and adjust next year
Yeah a player has never said that before and still left. I think a big piece of his decision may rest on who the management team and coaching staff are next year. If he likes the direction he’ll sign, if not, he will be gone before July 1.
“I’ve been here for 11 years and haven’t got to that ultimate goal. It’s been a while since they’ve won here, so I think that would be pretty special — to win a Cup here,” Gaudreau said. “It’s something that I kind of dreamed about my whole life, and Calgary is a great place to do it.””
Maybe AM is sincere, but we’ve heard this sentiment before. Personally, I’m fine with him staying in TO
LT, thanks again for another season of being a voice of calm and reason in the Oilogosphere. It is welcome and needed.
I think we have a good one in Skinner but I also expect a bounce-back from Campbell. The season is long, especially in the West, and two solid keepers are not a luxury but a necessity. Would not be surprised to see the balance of games played and the perception of who is the Oilers’ starter switch to Campbell by next spring.
Dustylegnd
May 15, 2023 10:07 am
If Nuge was not injured I’m not sure what the hell we have but he needs to be better. Nurse was lost last night, maybe it is hard to play with a plug like Ceci, but Nurse plays with a plug because he makes 2 mill more than he should.
Goalies have to steal games in the playoffs, our goalies stole 0 playoffs games and now we burn $5 mill a year on a back up. Cap management is important, the Oil are terrible at it by definition, because Alberta is a bad tax jurisdiction in a city with bad weather, we have to overpay to retain core pieces. Nevada has 0 state income tax, Texas 0, FLA 0, Tennessee 0 … see a pattern?
I see two more kicks at the cat, Leon’s contract expires in 2 years and I can not see how we can have him, and Connor at $14 per …this is it baby, 1 more year and then it is decision time on Leon and the future of the franchise. Holland has a massive off season staring him in the face and I suggest he may as well push all in … mortgage the future and try for a cup over the next 2 years … after 24/25 its jokers wild for the franchise.
GordieHoweHatTrick
May 15, 2023 9:58 am
Well said. Not a word out of place 😜
Bag of Pucks
May 15, 2023 9:57 am
Tough end to the season. 3 root causes from my pov.
1) Woodcroft was outcoached by Cassidy. Surest tell on this was VGK’s second period dominance. That’s the period where you’ve seen what the other HC is doing tactically in the first and you’ve adjusted in the intermission. Numerous examples where Woody stay married to bad matchups, was outfoxed tactically, and was indecisive on his goalie usage.
2) Vegas D Corps was much much better than the Oilers D Corps. LT has already flagged Ceci and Nurse and I’ll add Desharnais, Bouchard, and Broberg to that list as Dmen who struggled defensively. Bouchard had his coming out party offensively but those strong numbers offensively mask the deficiencies on the back end. He’s a very passive Dman that doesn’t gap consistently and aggressively. Ekholm is the only D that can consistently stifle the cycle on the wall. Vegas won this matchup decisively and it was the difference in the series imo.
3) Well, that Jack Campbell signing worked out really well…. Stuart Skinner will face even more shots over the coming days but the rookie saved the season and his D Corps gave up way more dangerous chances than the Knights. With the season on the line, starting Campbell was not a viable option for Woodcroft. That’s on Ken. There were better options available and the Dutchman’s marquee FA signing was a non factor and a huge reason Leon is summing this up as a ‘wasted season.’
I don’t know if Butch Cassidy is a better coach than Woodie. But he certainly was on this occasion. Vegas is also a veteran group defensively with more depth, they survived the suspension of their top defender with more ease than the Oilers, I’m not even sure Nurse is Edmontons top defender. I have to say they figured out Skinner simply because the team in front of him didn’t support him to the extent VGK support their goaltenders, allowing Hill to shut the door with not much difficulty.
Then it seemed Vegas took over the series after that, I can’t think of the proper adjective to describe (fourth game) which the Oil actually won. But things changed after that. You have to give VGK credit for magnificent management of the 7-game series, which didn’t need a seventh game They had a plan and they stuck to it. I honestly believe they will win it all this year. It’s usually the cup winner that defeats the Oilers enroute to the cup finals.
Fully agree with you. Vegas was the better team throughout the series and was full marks for the win. The cap manipulation is annoying but the team is exceptionally well built and managed. Their D and system play is so strong, they won the division deservedly despite having a goalie carousel and no defacto number 1. That’s impressive. Four WCF berths in six years. They’re legit.
Higher degree of difficulty in the playoffs when a team is getting so familiar with you. A HC needs a deeper bag of adjustments.
Cassidy kept finding ways for the Knights forecheck to stifle the Oilers’ breakout. That had to be a primary focus for both teams and VGK stayed one step ahead until most of the Oilers Top 6 were nonfactors. It was frankly demoralizing to watch in how inevitable the result seemed from Game 5 on.
Last edited 11 months ago by Bag of Pucks
PinkSocks
May 15, 2023 9:56 am
While 97 and 29 put up video game seasons, the answer is to not run them 22 to 26 minutes a game for 95 games. It’s the same mistake over and over again. Keep these superstars on separate lines and keep them under 20 minutes. That gives guys like Kostin the opportunity to make a difference and doesn’t gas the two guys who can bring home Stanley. That’s my only gripe in an otherwise tremendously entertaining season.
Agreed this would be a great approach for the regular season.
doritogrande
May 15, 2023 9:55 am
This series was a harsh lesson. Hopefully equivalent to “Tampa Bay loses to Columbus”. The team has flaws, some of the core players need to identify that their offensive contributions do not balance out their defensive liabilities and then we’ll see the promised land.
Sidebar: the hate for Yamamoto reminds me of how telegraphed Eberle’s exit was. Be prepared for a very chintzy return.
This (in addition to LT’s takes) is important for context. A team has to learn how to win.
The team learned from 2 straight disappointing exits and made it to the Western Finals last year. This year, we may very well have run into the team that should win the west (and possibly the cup) in the 2nd round, and are learning what it takes to get over the final hump. It’s part of the process.
Like all teams, there are flaws (3 young d-men, a young goalie, a goalie who struggled big), injuries (Kane, Ceci, others) but the window has not closed on this core, it’s just the urgency has increased and that will help motivate them.
And this will help a coach who already plays a good game of chess analyze what he can do better.
Yamamoto in this series played 14:12 per game, much of it with a quality C, & produced 0-2-2, with 18 PiM, and -6 tradititonal +/-, all of it earned at evens (+2/-8). He was in the low 40s in all shot & scoring chance metrics, with 35% expected goals. He mustered 4 (four) shots on goal in the entire series.
I have no hate for Kailer Yamamoto, none. But that is not performance at any price, let alone $3+ million.
NEW for The Athletic: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success? – The Athletic
Excellent article.
Does the Oilers/Holland commitment to over ripening prospects remain as money becomes to tight to mention? Or does Holland fill the gap with past prime aged players?
My bet is on the latter. For instance can Lavoie beat out Ryan for a roster spot?
Adding to the degree of difficulty is Lavoie will be waiver eligible.
Great point. Unless Lavoie has a really bad camp, it might be very difficult to get him through because teams will be looking for cheap talent.
You absolutely need to run your rookies in once they are ready. That’s how a salary capped team works.
Surely Lavoie is a better bet than Yamamoto to succeed?
Yamamoto. The anti-Puljujarvi.
He’s earned the chance to show if he can imo.
You guys still haven’t figured out why the Oilers lost?
I’ll tell you why the Oilers lost. Kaiser Soze.
To win this series, you just needed the will to do what the other guy wouldn’t.
Enter Nick Hague. Crippler of Hyman’s knee early in the series and Draisaitl back in game 5.
Marchessault. 5’9’ and 32 years of age. He looked like a million bucks when he scored a natural hat trick in game six. If he were an Oiler, he would have already been mangled by the Knights.
The Conn Smythe Trophy looks like a real horse race.
Roope Hintz 19 points
Matthew Tkachuk 16
Jack Eichel 14
Old Man Pavelski 1.25 PPG in only 8 games played
Perhaps a goaltender steps up. Aidan Hill leading the way at .934.
…and the Conference Finals are set. Vegas/Dallas, Carolina/Florida. I hate three of the four teams with a white hot heat for various reasons, so by process of elimination…. GO Panthers!!!
Cheering for Tkachuk…interesting.
Sun belt cup winner. Is it the vitamin D?
Or 4 Canadian coaches that can get their teams playing structured hockey without stifling offense if they have enough talent?
The Stars win. I have noticed over time that they draft a certain forward a lot. Big guys that have even G and A totals and usually can skate. Not timid types. Shooters. Holland has been heading this way
Their draft history is quite remarkable.
After scoring Heiskanen, Oettinger and Robertson all in one draft, they went on a tear of selecting smaller skilled scorers in Mavrik Bourque, Wyatt Johnson and Logan Stankhoven and then in the 22 draft their first 4 picks were all defensemen.
Their 18 and 19 first round picks Thomas Harley and Ty Dellandrea took a while but are now contributing.
Also of note…Wyatt Johnson is the youngest player to ever score the winning goal in a 7 game playoff series..he turned 20 yesterday.
You didn’t quite finish you work here.
Wyatt Johnson was picked right after Xavier Bourgeault in 2021.
Thomas Harley is playing the bottom right pairing with 7 points in 13 playoff games. He was picked 10 spots after Broberg in 2019.
Mavrik Bourque scored 20 goals and had 47 points in 70 games in the AHL this year. Picked 16 spots after Holloway in the 2020 draft. Right hand centre. Holloway has 0.58 points per game in the AHL over the past two seasons vs Bourque 0.7.
At any rate, amongst the reasons for the Oilers getting eliminated these playoffs (poor goaltending, passengers (Nuge, Hyman, Kane), poor top-paring (Nurse-Ceci), the other reason is not enough talent pushing from recent high picks (Bourgeault, Holloway, and Broberg).
I don’t buy it. The Oilers slow-play talent now, and Broberg specifically is tracking well. I will admit that both Holloway and Bourgault appear to be shy offensively, but I’m not certain that’s the player of the team’s development model.
Edmonton has quality coming. I’m convinced of it.
I think Kevin Bieksa nailed it last night when he said that if you had some kind of simulator based on how the teams played, the Oilers would have won more than 50% of the time.
Natural Stat Trick supports this as the xGF% were 53.4% 5-on-5 and 54.4% all situations, in the Oilers favour.
I would attribute VGK winning due to a combination of better goaltending and (as Chelios is a Dinosaur, Bruce McCurdy and others have pointed out) luck.
Randomness is a very underrated part of life, financial markets and sports, especially playoff series.
Not randomness or luck, but the level of variance in defensive play between the two team.
This is all true. So good investors minimize luck and don’t lemming around the markets. Good teams do as well. There are some truths in hockey that you can’t miss. If you want to do great things
Shhhhh don’t be positive. You’ll ruin the vibe around here.
Cannot wait for the catastrophic explosion that occurs here when the Oilers go into next season with basically the exact same lineup…
Looks like the Sunbelt Cup is almost assured.
Dallas leading 2-0 with 8 minutes remaing.
Nice run for Seattle though.
2-1 final.
Your “HH Kiss of Death” is losing its power.
Who do you have for the cup winner?
Man..this is tough.
All 4 teams could win it but I’m leaning toward Vegas because of their rock solid D and forward depth.
However, Oettinger and Bobrovsky are capable of winning a series by themselves.
Not sure yet.
I recorded the game last night due to Mother’s Day supper and I wore my jersey to the feast…as I knew it would be the last time I wore it this season. I knew we were going to lose last night. My bro-in-law asked what I felt about the game at the supper table, and I told him we were going to lose. The reaction on his face was complete confusion. I never predict Oiler failures…never. But last night I just knew…our season was ending earlier than we all think it should have.
Truth be told, it made for watching the loss more comical. Vegas scores 20 secs into the game and I chuckled. McD comes back to tie it a min later, and then Fogs puts one in to give us the lead. At that point, I still knew. This game was going to turn into a pumpkin. Cue the second period…
The 2nd period starts and in true ’23 Oilers fashion…we coast around the ice for 20 mins waiting to start losing the game again. Vegas scores 3 goals in the middle frame and I knew. This lead wasn’t going to change hands…we had lost. So I chuckled again.
3rd period we decided we should try again cuz our season was at stake…and they did provide some pressure. But almost all of their shots/chances/attempts at offense were just sad. Shoot from everywhere, force the most obvious passes/plays and pray for a bounce or a call. No prayers were answered and the empty netter seals it. I knew…this game was going to be sad…but I didn’t cry. I chuckled.
I chuckled when they scored 20 secs into the game. I chuckled when they scored 3 unanswered goals in the 2nd. I chuckled when Marchessault got his hat-trick. I chuckled when Ekholm’s face blew up and no hands were in the air. I chuckled multiple times at the sad attempts we made in the last 10 mins of a do-or-die game to try and win a game we should’ve never lost…but I knew we’d lose. I just knew.
Laughing never hurt before…until I watched my Oilers this year in the playoffs.
Taking games off in the playoffs is unforgivable and if that’s on the coach to motivate and/or get the team focused…then looking at other options is justifiable. McDrai aren’t forever…Stanley Cups are.
The only consistency in the Oilers game this year…was rimming the puck around the boards to McDrai to create all the offense. When that’s covered, rim it around or bank it off the the boards to the Dman to take a no-traffic-in-front-of-the-net shot. Or shoot into some shin pads and lose possession. That was our offensive strategy. The lack of creativity in the offensive zone, with the two best players in the world, was very consistent…consistently predictable and incredibly pathetic to witness. Cassidy getting praise for shutting it down isn’t needed…he prolly chuckled when he realized these were our ONLY 2 OFFENSIVE STRATEGIES.
I’m not going to talk about the D-zone man-to-man strategy…it doesn’t work and either the forwards didn’t want to play it/commit to it or didn’t know how to. No other team in the NHL has the front of their net as wide open as often as ours does. The goal that sky-rocketed up in the air and landed on the goal-line…there were 2 Knights just standing there waiting to tap it in. COMPLETELY uncovered. Marchessault could have fanned on it and fell over, and the guy behind him would have had time to pirouette then tap it in. That goal sums up our d-zone coverage to a tee. I see two guys there ready to take the rebound away…but those two guys were from the other team! I had to chuckle…
I don’t hate Woody, I’ve actually quite enjoyed him and he’s given this team some success. But the strategies being employed are…seriously flawed.
I dont think the coach’s strategies are what got our players to destroy records this year…I think McDrai are just that good. It pains me to say it, but it might not hurt to look around for a new bench boss.
And finally…reffing/game management is truly the worst part of our beloved game and is now being accepted as ok by the media. No one will call the refs out in public and everyone just seems to defend it or spin it in a positive light now. Why? WHY!?!
It actually makes the best players unable to dominate the game like they should. How in the hell is that allowed? “Sorry, you’re just too good so we need to temper your abilities to make the game more fair.” This world of parity in the league makes me puke…I blame participation medals. If this trend continues, it will amplify, and that will make the best sport in the world unwatchable.
Something or someone needs to stop this….please. Pleeeeeeeeeease!
Sorry for the rant but it feels good to let it out. I love you LT and I love this blog for exactly times like these. No one else will listen to this/my garbage. Except all of you 😉
And…of course…I love our Oilers. Always.
October…hurry up.
Well you said it with way more flair than I have. Woody may not be a strong head coach yet. But times a wastin’. That the core issues weren’t resolved from last playoffs is a no go for me. Especially the horrible net front and slot coverage, the things that make the GA so high compared to other strong teams
Inconsistency. Even in the great run they were getting lucky and relying on it too much. I don’t like the phrase ‘find a way to win’. Sounds like luck. ‘Know’ how to win is better. Much better
That with the better but still wobbly roster the coaches couldn’t get it up a level. Ekholm came in and stabilized things thus the run, but he also was dragged down with their structure
And agreed the duo going off, the PP, is on the talent. Because when things get tight and serious they can’t score. They don’t have the quality of players the 80’s guys had, no team does today. They need a plan and as far as I can see it’s not working
Holland needs to not be a timid Gardner. I prefer he moves upstairs before the next contracts come up. Need some hungry smart folks that do t have their HOF careers in the bag, like the players. Like Slats was
Some plants need TLC, many need a good hard pruning to thrive Year after year. Pro sports is not for the timid. Or the wrong headed or those that don’t adapt to the times
Wow – great job with this post. Sums up my thoughts on the state of the team and the playoff run we just witnessed.
How much over the cap would Vegas be with Stone back if it were the regular season?
About a full mark stone’s worth.
Few things overall
1 – Everyone online is shredding Kane, RNH, Yamamoto, and Hyman 5 vs 5.
Kane did not have a normal season, tough to get a rhythm. His fucking wrist was severed open, and he is most deserving of a pass. 18 even strength pts in 27 playoff games as an Oiler, even including this underwhelming performance
Hyman and RNH also weren’t good enough even strength. I don’t know what went wrong, but this seems like more of an anomaly. Injuries a factor? Either way, let’s not write them off like we did to Eberle.
Yams is not worth the contract or top 6 billing. But getting the GWG and helping the team 3 more home games in the playoffs may just have value to the franchise.
So sure, find a better solution (internal/external) to Yam in the top 6, but flushing the other 3 seems hasty and a surefire way to receive lesser value in return.
Also, sure Eichel’s line shredded the comp even strength in GF-GA, but it wouldn’t have been such a dramatic stat line without some puck luck and some replacement level goaltending…
2- Skinner can be the reason we made the playoffs and the reason we lost the 2nd round. Both can be true. He really had a dreadful playoffs and did not cover for the defensive miscues and/or opposition pushback that is inevitable in any playoff series, regardless of the matchup. I truly believe he was the difference in several games we lost, particularly the last 2. If Campbell didn’t play so well in game 4 we would have be staring down the barrel of an even worse disappointment in round 1. I understand he’s a rookie but there is precedent for success with this type, and he flat out disappointed. He also shouldn’t have been put in this position if the starting goalie kept the job in the regular season. I do think the best we can do is hope for Campbell to bounce back so there is a 1A/1B situation less year, with less hesitation to ride the hot hand in the playoffs. Buying him out is not a smart solution unless a stellar 1 mil/year goalie shakes loose on the market.
3- Find Nurse a better partner. Tough task. Hopefully it comes internally
4- If the PP is phenomenally good, it can cover for a poor even strength. That’s on the refs for not calling the series the way it should have been. I certainly wouldn’t have been complaining if the Oilers won the series and lost the even strength battle.
5- Firing Woodcroft? Really? They may have bowed out to the SC winners for the 2nd year in a row (pains me to say that, fucking weasels). While you can argue all teams battle injuries, Oilers didn’t have luxury of storing 9.5 extra mil, returning miraculously in time for the start of the playoffs…
If I’m Holland, I think I would sniff around the D market, but based on our cap It seems more likely to circle back around the trade deadline. I keep thinking about whether Dylan Demelo is a good fit for Nurse’s partner if Winnipeg is selling. I’m comfortable subtracting Ceci and going in with Kulak on his off-side. I don’t want to go into the playoffs like that, but I’m happy to start the season.
So Ekholm who makes 6mil and change makes Bouchard considerably better. Can’t a 9.25 mil defender make his partner better too? It seems that there is always some sort of accomodation needed for Darnell. Do we need any more evidence that the Darnell contract is a disaster? My fear is they will overpay Bouchard too….
Fair. Just being realistic that Nurse isn’t going anywhere. Also don’t need someone that makes Nurse better, just someone that can hold their own.
Most players need good players or the right type of players to play with. Even Drai needs it when the chips are down. Connor is a freak but while he was the only chance they had with Vegas imagine him with more healthy wingers or smarter players?
Few things about the game (disclosure: was at game 6 with the family, so did not review all plays)
1 – First goal sucked the life out of the raucous building. Yes we got it back but Skinner’s poor play behind the net and some bad luck off Ekholm were responsible. Hard shot to save, but I think a better play from Skinner would have avoided it
2 – Hard to blame the Oilers for not trying or playing well while outshooting VGK nearly 2-1. 2nd period we were all annoyed, but even then they went back to work
3 – Skinner’s blooper goal was 0% on Nurse. An NHL goalie should not have made that an adventure and Nurse was not expected to be on the goal line. It was a tremendously poor play by Skinner and sucked the life out of the building, once again
4 – In a close game, with 2 close teams, reffing can have significant effects on the outcome. Just like in game 5, this was the case last night. My 8 y/o son saw the missed calls and was upset, for some perspective.
You’re not winning the Western Division with a Rookie Goalie that’s sporting a 5W-6L and a 883 batting average. We possibly only have 1 year left of the dynamic duo. If Leon isn’t resigning he will be dealt next Spring-Summer. Woody talk’s a good game and I’ll use the famous golf saying “You drive for show and you putt for dough” Cassidy out coached Woody.
Those are 2 somewhat contrasting statements.
The goalie is to blame, and yet the coach was outcoached?
While it can be both, I would argue VGK rode a PDO heater and beat a shaky goalie during the series, and that was more impactful than the coaching strategy.
If Campbell plays we win Games 6 and 7 Campbell had been playing lights out to end the year nevermind the dead cat bounce a team seems to get when a new Goalie has been inserted. I’ve heard the only reason Campbell looked good when called upon was score effects I call “Bullshit” Campbell made some great saves against L.A and Vegas. Skinner is pretty confident man but his body language was not good in Game 5. Woody had the fresh Goose Gossage in the bullpen yet he sticks with the done for dinner Skinner.
Gotcha. I agree that his biggest mistake was not giving Campbell the start in game 6, given how poorly Skinner played. For me it’s easy to critique in hindsight, but Campbell would have likely outperformed that low bar
At first blush this is what I see for next year. Focus is 5×5 scoring for lines 2-4 and overall defensive play. All moves made to support that.
At Center, McD, Drai,McLeod good FInd vet for 4th line center and as cover if not found in house. UFAs Bjugstad and Shore – Shore at 28 is too old to keep as a tweener, Bjugstad is a fallback if he is cheap enough to bury if need be and will take a one year deal RFAs McLeod (sign the man 3 yr deal max)Philp gets a chance to contribute – see what we got.
At LW Kane, Hyman, FOegele and Holloway under contract and will do well. Not the time to make any drastic moves here yet – if the elder ones (Kane/Hyman) have a drastic regression their decision comes next offseason, not this one. RFAs Kostin and Benson. Kostin useful as FWD 12-14 range right now, not sold on Benson UFA Bailey still a tweener at best at 27 – bye bye. Need room for SAvoie and Petrov to develop in the AHL as both are at least a year away from having a legit shot at NHL.
At RW is where the real challenge starts. Love Yamo’s heart and fiesty play but far too expensive for what he brings at current salary. Need upgrade – someone who is real difficult to play against for the middle 6 would do nice. Ryan is a very smart player, but a 36 year old player. UFA – one year deals from here on out , may get 1 or 2 more seasons from him and is a placeholder for now. Love him on that third line at same or slightly lower number. At 31 next year Janmark is what he is an past his peak. Was good placeholder in bottom six but is vulnerable.Lavoie Bourgeault will get a shot but we need more here, on all lines. We will see action on this spot in a big way. I hope for solid 2 way players, to mind the store a bit while C and RW do the heavy scoring. These men will have to have some reliable secondary scoring, but should be physical, good at goal suppression and smart, to a man.As much will as skill please.Lavoie Bourgeault/Tulio all look promising but I will be very happy if even one of them is ready for the jump this year, One of them might get a late season audition – let them percolate
Left D Nurse/Ekholm/Kulak are in. UFAs Koekkoek and Demers are both history Neimelainen is only cover remotely close to ready. Restock at least on or hopefully two depth players for cover.
Right D will be fun because of Bouchard extension. I have stated several times in other posts my reasoning for going either long or for a 1 year deal with an understanding, if not a pocketed long term extension for 2024/25 and forward to be unpacked after Jan 1.Going long right now is something that will mean we have to gut other areas of the roster to do so.Cover on the farm are Kemp/Wanner, I think adding another rookie to this unit will be difficult as two of the four incumbents are just finishing THEIR rookie years, so would be too much wobble for me. Others under contract are Ceci/Broberg and Desharnais. If any of these are moved it means another player coming back. I think it might be easier to trade across player groups rather than one player for a similar positioned player, so If you trade a forward go for a D in return, and vice versa, might be more manageable.
Goalie – this might be an interesting position. Skinner is already at the very least a very solid backup or 1b, and might be the starter we craved. The problem is Campbell. He has been unpredictable all year, I hope the shine from his playoff relief performances increases his value enough if the team decides to move on. I think they give him one more year before making the decision – he may become vulnerable by the trade deadline?
Bettman has stated there is a chance the Cap escrow debt could be done this year, but will certainly be retired by the end of next season in any case. Imagine this – if the escrow debt is retired now, the Cap increases to approx 87.5m Yamo at 3.1m gone. Campbell at 5m gone, That’s 12.1 m in cap space to resign Bouch, get a backup /1b goalie to tandem with Stu @ approx 2m, and repopulate the RW position. Doable I would think.
If it only increases by the 1m, it 9.1 m to address the needs, tougher, but we can certainly make a dent in our shopping list.Actual Cap room may vary if there are any other 2.5m + players swapped for cheaper help…but the idea remains the same.
Not to forget – Lucic/Sekera hits done, giving us 2.25 m more walking around money. LTIR hassle is finished as well.So, if we budget keeping our powder dry at 1M not committed so we can shop at trade deadline more, increase the above numbers to 10.35m to 13.35m cap room as the case may be.
I would love to run some rookies for regular season but upgrade at the deadline. By that I don’t mean move them out, but bring an experienced version in.
The lesson Im seeing these playoffs is mistake free veterans, playing defense first and patient hockey, they are winning the day.
Might be an option, but I wanted to show it is not the only option – we have more flexibility than some realize. The rookies need a chance to try, but we cannot go into next season relying on that as our only option. We need cover and I am sure Ken will provide same. Time to flush poor value contracts surgically to allow better asset distribution going forward. It is The Way.
The Lucic deal lingers for another 2 seasons as the Neal buyout runs $1.9 million,
The retained salary on Lucic is gone. The Neal buyout is accounted for in my numbers. Please follow the math as stated. It’s not hard.
Pretty hard to follow.
What are you paying Bouchard?
OOPS I forgot Nuge! The numbers remain good though. Just forgot to mention him in the list. Makes our shopping list one player shorter but totals remain the same.
I can see us potentially accomplishing this on a Cap hit of 83.17 m next year if the Cap is 83.5 , resign McLeod, Bjugstad or replacement, Philp, resign Ryan to a 1 yr, Lavoie or similar cost player, replace Yamo/Janmark for two replacements at 5m total, 1 yr for Bouch with a pocketed long term contract to register on Jan 1, and replace Campbell with a good tandem goalie for Stu to take the load off at approx 2m per year.If the Cap rises more than the 83.5 we get to shop in stores with wider aisles as it were.
I have Bouch as a 1yr deal at 2.5m with a LT deal in pocket to file at Jan 1. Don’t forget, we can massage this by paying a large portion of the salary as a signing bonus which goes into the 2024/25 cap as a bonus overage, as Boston did last year with two of their players. So we can massage the deal to get a 2.5 hit for 2023/24 if needed through this mechanism. If we don’t get teh Cap increase to 87.5 this year, it will certainly hit that level next year and we will still be one offseason away from worrying about Drai. All doable.
Performance bonuses can only be paid to players on ELCs or 35+ ages.
A signing bonus, not a performance bonus. Isn’t that what Boston did with Marchant et al? I will look into it a little more… give me a minute.
No…they were 35+ performance bonuses paid to Bergeron and Krejci.
https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/nhl-rumors-bruins-will-carry-45-million-bonus-overages-2024-salary-cap
I stand corrected. Marchand was a performance bonus, not a signing bonus. I misremembered the circumstances and thought the signing bonus could go into bonus overage for the next year. My bad! Good catch HH. I give credit where due.
However, the idea of a 1 yr extension with a multi year in the desk drawer to file after jan 1 still holds and can be used to massage the 2023/24 cap hit as necessary, A 2.5m one year deal is still achievable – just add a signing bonus to the multi year deal to compensate the player. Say they want 3.5 on a 1 yr or 7 on an 8 year. Counter with 2.5 on 1 and a deal in the desk drawer for 7 at 50/m total (or 8 @ 57m total ) as the case may be….
ok, but where are you playing RNH? Your post said LW and 1-3C are set.
I love Nuge on 3c, but one of our C can move to wing, a LW can move to RW if needed there. there is flexibility. For arguments sake, my spreadsheet hs 8W and 6 C to account for the 14F total. Easier for a C to move to W than vice versa.
If anyone is interested, I can do a cost breakdown by position/contract status to show my work. I did not post it in total here because it is a long read. I can post each position separately to show it in bites and one post to show the aggregate numbers as well if there is demand for it.
If you want to see it I have no problem posting another wall of text jaja. Ask and it will be so. Don’t ask, and I will refrain from burdening you with too much math.
Well ……
This OIlers team finished the Reg season 18-2-1? Went to the 2 round, and the fan base is dissapointed. THIS SHOWS HOW FAR THE OILERS HAVE COME.
A full season of Ekholm will set the course for a better playoff team next year.
You guys all have good ideas, some clear roster needs and upgrades.
IMO This is an excellent team. I stay the course and definitely add at the Deadline next yr. This team is close …..
Cool.
Boston had one of the most dominant regular seasons the NHL has seen in some time.
Like the Oilers 2nd half, nobody will remember it though.
Just listening to Ray and Dregs.
Ray makes the point that as the payoffs went along Woodcroft stopped trusting his bottom 6 and overplayed Connor and Leon so Eichel was fresher as the series progressed.
Going forward, he says the Oilers must find trusted bottom 6 players who can outscore.
I think this is a valid point. This is an instance where it appears the coach is to blame for the lack of trust. In the regular season the bottom 6 did outscore, yet the coach still limited their icetime when he needed to keep it consistent in the playoffs.
@MarcMethot3
Oilers keep making the same mistake. Overplayed 29-97 which eventually leads to running out of gas. No trust in the bottom 6 and now they’re out.
That’s the reality.
29-97 24 minutes
4 th line 3-6-7 minutes
Stone eichel 17 minutes
4 th line 9 minutes
Playing every other day with travel…
That’s because they were chasing the game.
McDavid & Draisaitl played fewer minutes in the first, then were asked for more as the game went on.
While that is true it is very difficult to chase a game with exhausted players.
Extremely valid.
Every single time over the last two years, when the Oilers were going into a slump, Coach overplayed the top players. Every single time, it failed. The way out was when the whole team got together, got icetime, and played their way back.
Woodcroft lived this, but can’t help himself.
Fun fact – Michael Jordan didn’t win a Championship until he was 28.
From his first Championship at 28 through his last playoff appearance at 35 his scoring stayed within a 4 point range (his last season he scored more than his first), he averaged over 41 min/g in each run and his big stats were within 3-4/game each season.
Furthermore, he won all of his NBA Finals and 4/5 regular season MVP awards after age 28 and he won 5/10 scoring titles after age 28 Remarkable consistency at the highest of levels through 35.
Superstar core teams rarely breakup, at least not in their primes. The 80’s Oilers, and to a lesser extent the Mario Pens, being the exception rather than the rule. They usually age out together. Detroit, Colorado, New Jersey, Dallas (shudders), Pittsburgh, Boston, Washington, Chicago, L.A., and Tampa set to.
Worth remembering these two things in the weeks to come.
The Window has barely opened, nevermind closing.
Now they’ve tasted defeat when they should have went further. We’ll find out next year if its similar to the Bulls in 1990 before the Pistons rang them up again.
The salary cap may play a part in determining whether this core is together for more than another 1-2 years.
How old was the 9th leading point getter Marcel Dionne when he won a Cup?
Please dont compare hockey and basketball. In basketball there are not two sets of rules. The 80’s Oilers had the best players on one team, the Pens were stacked with Mario and Jagr leading the charge, Colorado and Detroit were also stacked teams. If you want valid comparables, the Hawks, Kings, Lightning, and Pens fit. All with multiple cups in a salary cap era. The Oilers are nowhere near these teams because they have little depth and an inability to play defence. Furthermore, if you compare the Oilers’ defence with those teams it’s like comparing a station wagon to a Ferrari.
Hahahahahahahahaha if you don’t think there are two sets of rules in basketball I dunno what to tell ya friend.
Go watch clips of The Showtime teams, Pistons in the 80s, Buills, Spurs, Lakers, Heat and Golden State etc.
There is always and I mean always two sets of rules hahaha.
Yea I know they were stacked teams. Stacked teams with Superstar Core’s that stuck around as a core for 20 years or so.
That is my whole point.
And yes I understand you are sore, sad and angry but four straight hundred point seasons is pretty damn good despite your anger. Its where teams who contend end up before winning. Go back and take a look at standings in years previous to Cup wins from all those teams and you’ll see.
Also LT, is there an Athletic write up on Broberg? Im interested, as Im not seeing what others seem to be seeing.
Money aside, if we could bring in another Ekholm type for Broberg I would make that trade.
I want to be convinced otherwise.
Next year is go time for Broberg. You don’t draft him where you did and then give up on him (your first pick after you became GM) unless there is a serious flaw.
Broberg’s problem is he needs to play more and was hurt this year. Need to give him a chance.
Agreed with this up until the deadline. At that point you assess whether he can be a strong contributor in the playoffs or if you need to upgrade.
Certainly he needs more of a chance.
The difficulty for me would be to determine what he becomes, what is his potential. Klefbom? Maybe but right now he could just as easily fizzle. He is a long way from a playoff top 4.
He also has good value.
So not giving up on him, but if his best games are 3-4 years out, maybe swap the value for what we need now.
Pretty unpopular sure.
Lets say a cap strapped team trades a coveted top4 d man, retaining salary for a cheap young cost controlled dman.
We have Nurse – Mayfield (todays suggestion)
Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Desharnais
We would need some cover but Niemo should be passable 3rd pair
Those goals against have to come down
Nurse is the “another Ekholm” you are looking for for Broberg.
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
Sounds promising but we can’t sign up for that next year. So keep Ceci as the stop gap/fall back or is there a better way? I don’t think Kulak at RD is the answer.
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
Kulak Desharnais
Ceci
Ceci provides cover on the right side.
The OIlers are out of LTIR. If Broberg doesn’t progress fast enough, one can add a D at the trade deadline. And worse case, one still has Ceci.
Broberg can defend and more physical tools than Barrie, Bouchard, Ceci, and Bear…all three who occupied that spot. And unlike any of those four, Broberg can probably actually help Nurse. It wouldn’t be a one sided pairing.
I think Nurse trying to bring along another rookie might be his downfall. Fans would roast him alive.
Nurse could use another strong defender and of course must be better than a healthy Ceci or no point to the exercise.
Broberg is a better defender than Ceci.
Is there any evidence to support this statement?
Broberg battling Eichel on the boards (and getting a penalty for the referee not believing a rookie could do that).
Bouchard has never done that.
Broberg pretty much always battles his guy in front of the net. Bouchard, not so much. Bouchard often loses or never identifies his man. Not so witih Broberg.
Broberg was the best defensive defenseman in his Swedish class, plus or minus one year.
What does Bouchard have to do with Ceci?
You play Broberg at his cap rate, and replace Ceci with a better D. And run Vinnie as 7D.
https://theathletic.com/4227784/2023/02/20/oilers-philip-broberg-draft/
Why did Derrick Ryan look so good? Smart veteran player making few mistakes. Vegas and Seattle seem loaded with these guys.
You wont be spending big to bring in a Ryan over a skill player, however, a whole team of Ryans is a load in the playoffs.
I’d bring him back for the McLeod Ryan Foegele line alone. They went to work shift after shift. If McLeod could develop even a hint of finish they’d be walking real tall right now.
To me the Oilers lack enough game smarts. I also think coaching played into this. They had a 5v5 issue against good defensive teams and didn’t put the right tactics in play. Cycling on its own isn’t enough. You have to make the right plays over and over
Ryan does it
Here’s another way to look at it. If the Oilers were allowed to miraculously add an additional $8M/yr player for the playoffs without it affecting their cap, maybe they would have had the missing piece to match up better.
Dunno why that totally hypothetical scenario came to mind. Just fun to muse!
I would love for Woody to challenge the Duo to view their offensive success next season through the lens of outscoring, they have had enough records, they need some cups now
The 80s Oilers pushed each other further and higher by smashing teams to bits late in the third and chasing records.
They should double down. No more foot off the gas when they’re up. No mercy.
If you could load up that much talent with a cap
Today it’s more tactical partly because of the cap
I’ll try the glass have filled. The best part of the Oilers losing is we don’t have to listen to Singh and Louie. Replace Singh with the girl that does the Wrangler games as she’s able to understand the game better. Then replace Louie with Cassie If her husband takes over as G.M of Calgary and with Cassie being a fierce competitor it would make for some interesting commentary especially in the BOA Games.
Unbelievable lol
Some people think HH is LT’s alt account. I think it’s Reja
They could have a segment in between periods with Ron MacLean called Cassie’s Pillow Talk Corner.
Did you not see that she was removed from broadcasting the games because she was overwhelmingly boring?lol
She wasn’t removed she left for more money with ESPN and TNT. Cassie knows the game and is very relatable as long as she’s not doing Calgary games then her bias for her Hubby is over the top.
I’m just sad. I loved this year’s iteration and to watch them gassed and anemic at the end was heartbreaking.
That missed highstick of Ekholm with 6min to go was atrocious. Those calls are supposed to be as auto as over the glass delay of game. That was a critical moment that would have changed those last 5mins considerably.
I love this team and this sport. I hate the NHL. I’m not sure why I keep watching sometimes. It’s like being in love with an emotionally abusive lover.
No call on the high stick Ekholm, but the tap by Janmark gets called to create the 5 on 3
WWE on skates 🙂
Yamamoto is characterized as a ‘successful draft pick’ because of the career production he’s posted. Is that reasonable?
My take is that his production, like Puljujarvi’s, was primarily the result of the opportunity the player was given (roster spot and linemates) and not primarily because of the offense he himself created. A complimentary player pick with enough skill to cash albeit without any consistency.
First rounders are drafted with a high ceiling in mind and Yamamoto’s ceiling (particularly as a playoff producer) was limited from the second the selection was announced because of his small size. That known weakness has now come home to roost and at a time when you needed the McDavid cluster firing on all cylinders, you’ve got a key draft asset identified as part of the problem not the solution. That is not success. Calling Yamamoto a successful pick at the same time he’s underperforming a relatively modest contract is framing a definition for success based on things other than winning imo.
It reminds me of the DoD when our 1st rounders were fast tracked onto the roster, immediately started drowning and developing bad habits, and were eventually characterized as ‘successful draft picks’ based on them hitting a games played mark.
Definitions for success are important, particularly if you’re a team serious about winning the Cup. If you’re building excuses into your KPIs to justify bad decisions, you’re doomed to fail against the very best.
Imo one of the best aspects of a data driven culture is the data doesn’t reinforce the narratives, it challenges them and more often than not, dispels them. The Oilers labour under far too many narratives with players like Nurse, Puljujarvi, Yamamoto, and Campbell. If they learn anything from Vegas, it should be to become more analytical and less biased and prone to narratives. The window is shrinking. The decisions made from hereon have to be unemotional, calculated, surgical and correct.
It’ll cost a asset or a mid range pick to rid ourselves of Yamo and since we have very little in the cookie jar on both fronts. Yamamoto will therefore be bought out.
There are no untradeable players on the team anymore IMO. Maybe they won’t fetch much but
MacCrimmon is the anti Holland. He wants to win and if they want something different they change it asap. Holland would have signed Fleury to a big long no trade expensive deal because to me he’s sentimental. Mac parted ways probably because the stats say he isn’t that good anymore
The Oilers have a few players that aren’t great at thinking the game and can’t handle the puck well and can’t shoot reliably. They make constant defensive mistakes and aren’t creative offensively. Many teams would upgrade that this summer. It takes more than skating fast even if I love that
I just don’t get how an NHL player doesn’t love shooting. It’s the best part of the game for me
Why didn’t Woody play Holloway? He would of brought energy youth look at Knies 20 years-old in Toronto he was fun to watch. Other players around the Holloway pick at 14 there’s Jarvis, Mercer, Boldy Lundell etc. Woody didn’t have the sense to insert Holloway because he’s a Rookie Winger yet he plays the shit out of a tired Skinner.
Probably the risk. But if the vets are making defensive mistakes and are too hurt what’s the risk?
But I thought the Oilers had now become gurus of player development. Isn’t player development working on those exact issues say during the summer?
I think Holland avoids stressing young guys out. But there’s a balance
Disappointed but hopeful
Next years team is basically set. Some adjustments I would bring in and some internal growth areas.
1.PP2 needs more success on this team, the historically best power play is a beautiful story, but 15-20 PP goals from our 5-10th best offensive players is a trade that will benefit team’s 5v5 success.
2.Kulak can succeed as first pairing right side defender this is a saving vs. a traded Ceci and provides Broberg and Vinny another 5 minutes a game as the third pairing.
3.Campbell has to play and be more effective next year.
4.Turn 15-20% of the line up over.
There is a very large elephant in the room.
Next Spring you throw out who to play against Jack Eichel?
Kulak can exceed as 1RD? Is this a typo? Cause he can’t even succeed at 2LD.
Woody needs to be fired and a more aggressive Coach needs to come in and win a Cup next year. Start Campbell and Holloway instead of Yamo we win this series. Skinner could not handle the moment in Vegas and it was obvious he was Mentally and Physically tired. The 1st Goal sucked all the life out of the building last night. I believe the Calder nomination for Skinner clouded Woody’s decision making. If we don’t win a Cup next year Leon is not sticking around and if Leon goes Connor will follow suit. We have a short window and it got tighter because of Woody’s refusal to line match and not start a fresh Campbell.
They came back and were winning 2-1
They were going to lock it down like Toronto did in game 4 in Florida that game plan went out the window after Skinners mistake.
When has this team ever locked anything down? lol
At some point I will put all my thoughts together.
Next season looks to be status quo in goal. Skinner and Campbell, unless there is a cap floor team interested in Campbell.
If there is a deal for Ceci, I would take it. If no deal is available, I am fine with Ceci and Desharnais battling for #3RD.
I would run Broberg on the right side with Nurse all year, and add a D at the deadline if needed. Or if Ceci cannot be upgraded in a trade.
The OIlers are out of LTIR, so they can add a RD and a top 6 forward at the deadline if needed.
As you would expect, LT is hitting the ‘lack of an analytics department’ narrative hard this morning.
I wonder if LT appreciates that an analytics driven org would likely move Nurse and replace him with two nonfamous D at $4,5M each that bigdata reveals as dominant box defenders?
Would any of the final 5 teams left deploy Nurse in their D corps at his current cap hit? I doubt it. Nurse is an inefficient usage of cap resources. This is not a player that an analytics driven GM would build around as a core asset imo.
I wonder if Bag of Pucks appreciates that moving Darnell Nurse before June 1, 2027 is not possible due to his contract.
I like him as a feature piece on the Coyotes backline. lol
Nurses contract was also designed to be pretty much buy out proof.
Once the NMC flips to a modified NMC with a 10 team trade list, the final 4 years all feature a $6 million signing bonus with minimal actual salary.
Depending on performance, that could be a tough contract to move.
That Nurse contract is like Lucic, almost immovable. The Oilers will never win a cup with his contract here unless the cap goes up 10 million in 2 years. He has far too many brain cramps on defense. When I saw the highlights, he’s on the ice for 3 Vegas goes, swimming on one of them because he can’t sense danger or move the man and stick from in front.
Just wait till they overpay Bouchard lol
I’m mystified. You’ve defended this contract as reasonable given the direct comps at the time of signing, but this reasonable market value contract is also unmovable?
How have we we arrived at this point? Is that Darnell simply underperforming the contract since he put pen to paper?
Here is my take on the Nurse signing.
https://theathletic.com/4034653/2022/12/26/oilers-darnell-nurse-defenceman/
Could he not be asked to waive?
Sure, and if the Oilers are no longer a contender I’m sure he’ll wave.
“dominant box defenders”
Ricki?
Kidding. Kidding.
Opposition players get behind him & gain inside position on him way too much, way too often.
If the new Analytics department wants to bring in a “box defender” for less than $5M & spend the cap savings on Yammo upgrade, who is saying no?
replace Nurse and add 2 lesser dman and you will lose your leadership and gain nothing.
Kulak came from a Stanley cup finalist D core. They were formidable. Ekholm similar.
They both look poorer in Edmonton’s system. The only one who has not changed his smothering coverage is Desharnais. Granted he may not be as talented in other ways, but his smothering defense is valid.
Im not saying The Oil should abandon their offence game, that is their blessing, and needs to continue.
Im saying their losses come from their defensive tactics and defensive skill as a team. Its just not good enough. So many goals against.
Back to trading Nurse, that wont solve the real issue. .
Leadership? You mean the not knowing the instigator rule and taking himself out of a must win game leadership? Or the head butting a guy and taking himself out of a crucial game leadership?
Nurse is reactionary and instinctive and needs a lot of coaching. Probably always will.Are they? Can Manson? Huddy?
I agree there is a lot to digest still.
For me, I would start by replacing the coach who is responsible for the defensive system.
It has been the major team weakness for at least 2 years. It is not just the players, who are certainly offensive minded, but it is also the system itself. Its not working.
Kings played a very good defensive system and for that reason alone they challenged the Oilers. Knights played an excellent defensive game and beat the Oilers.
Oilers continue to break down defensively, they lose their man often, time after time. This is the number one reason behind their loss. Knights pick up their man. every. single. time. Veteran team playing a sound system, (mostly) mistake free.
I agree that Oilers D breakdowns were a huge part of the problem. It’s been going on for years with different coaches too. Hard to comprehend why Nurse consistently chases the play and Drai consistently fails to back check year over year. Coaches? Systems? Players?
If you want to contend year in and out it’s more about D than O. The cap comes and clips your tall poppies every so often. You can’t rely on O over time. Not to mention we’ve seen it not show up in important moments
Cassidy looked like a buffoon but he ate Woody’s lunch. His team was more focused (that’s coaching ) and they survived a lot of key injuries winning the west. They played as a team well and they beat us. We continue to play erratically as a team
Every team still around has coaching staffs that have their teams playing sound structured hockey game in and out. It mitigates the luck side and allows their goalies to play their best
That’s it in a nutshell: Not tragic.
Oilers didn’t bring enough to the last two games for this to be a travesty. It was there, they had the horses. Bottom line: They did not overcome.
In the end, I can’t bring myself to blame the refs. This team just did not deliver. A true Cup contender needs to be dominant. Other than a game here or there, I never thought we were dominant against either LA or Vegas.
I don’t know hockey well enough to know why playoff hockey is so different. But Boston, Colorado, Tampa, the Rangers, and Toronto are also wondering the same thing.
Just to make things even more interesting here today:
Goaltending is the most overrated aspect of hockey. All but the most elite goaltenders don’t win games – if you wonder why a journeyman can “beat a team” it comes down to bad shooting.
AND
Throwing up ‘luck’ all the time is intellectually lazy. I’d suggest strongly if you ask any high level athlete or Coach they will not with any sincerity ever refer to it ultimately impacting the result, barring of course the occasional comment when the immense frustration of a loss is palpably beating within them in the immediate moments after. And even then they rightly say it was on THEM.
With respect to the season, I share the opinion that I think Woody got outcoached in both the micro sense (see, e.g., the matchups) and the macro sense (see, e.g., running McDavid/Drai & the rookies to exhaustion). On the latter point, I think there’s a comparable to be made to Boston pushing for a regular season record and then not having the juice to elevate their game come playoff time.
Be that as it may, I’m with Dee Dee and others in that my appetite for the NHL grows smaller every year. My waning interest is due in no small part to the way games are being called and managed, DoPS shenanigans, and the way the league has been managed more generally (see, e.g., Arizona playing out of a college rink, or the Chicago debacle — good thing they didn’t have a practice infraction, though).
It’s basically become tune in to watch McDavid, but the disjunct between regular season and playoff hockey is all the harder to swallow for that reason.
On the randomness issue – do the Oilers have a problem controlling their sticks more than other teams, or were we just unlucky to get so many high sticking penalties against us?
Like Game 5, down 4-3 in the third, Foegele makes a nice move into the Vegas zone and….high sticks the defender when deking. 4 minute minor, there goes the game. I kinda just shrugged my shoulders at that point.
I like Woodcroft a lot, but I’d grill him about a few things, the 97/29 combo, lack of rolling 4 lines, putting out the Bjugstad line against Vegas top line repeatedly, not adjusting Nuge’s line getting caved in repeatedly, not putting in Campbell.
People thought Game 6 was the time to start Soup, and it was, but one could argue it might have happened earlier in the series where it wasn’t an elimination game. Pulling your starter in 3 of the last 4 games of the series is not a good look.
All the complaints about reffing (horrid) and randomness (bad luck!) aside, the team doesn’t commit to defence enough. Yes the d corpse top to bottom had some bad moments, even Ekholm I thought wasn’t outstanding for much of the series, but like Godot, I saw too many fly-bys by the wingers.
If you aren’t scoring, you can at least commit every shift to back checking.
And the top wingers scored fewer goals than our bottom 6. That’s pretty much the series right there.
And for Drai, it was crazy to see him start with one of the all-time great playoff runs, to 1 point in the last 4 games. Did he run out of gas? Didn’t seem like the same player to me even before the Pietrangelo madness.
Yamamoto, the grest cooler. Yamamoto also effs up Draisaitl by being such a weak player in his own end, and the GA messes with Draisaitl’s overall game.
Draisaitl is the best passer (and top five shooter) in the league, and he continually got stuck with Yamamoto.
Over a year ago, I talked about how Yamamoto had to be moved down the roster if he was ever going to be an effective player. Now the only options are a trade for whatever one can get or buying him out.
Why was Kostin not tried up there?
Warts for sure with him ..but wow, Cassidy did not have to work to get his match up even on the road.
Woody died on many hills here this spring – the RNH/Yamo infamous combo is the most perplexing of them all.
Well, that and having Nick Bjugstad greatly elevated to a top 6 role.
Woody’s defenders have never explained the Bjugstad thing.
I believe RNH/Yam still received more ice time that the hot 3rd line.
One of the really interesting thing about the Knights is how often they’ve fired the HC despite being a relatively successful club. Gallant, Deboer, Cassidy. This team doesn’t hesitate to change the voice, direction, and tactics. So much for the value of continuity.
Is this an analytics thing? Is there a school of thought that believes staying with one HC too long makes you predictable? Whatever the rationales driving it, it’s certainly a unique approach and the exact opposite of being complacent.
Since the beginning…all in all the time.
You have to be on the leading, bleeding edge of risk in order to compete for championships, or make a ton of money, or invent something amazing.
This involves making decisions on things before the other 99% of people are comfortable. That’s why there’s value to it.
And then then other part is accepting that sometimes these things don’t work and immediately rebooting rather than accepting some sort of long turn around adventure that doesn’t work.
Good point.
Every year I tell myself the reffing can’t/won’t get worse, yet it does.
The NHL establishes and promotes a product which they have every right to present, market, govern as they wish, as is their right as purveyor’s of said product.
But I as a consumer of this form of entertainment have to decide whether or not my investment of money, time and emotions have enough value to myself in order to keep an interest in the product being offered.
The League has decided that they value knuckle dragging and thuggery over skill. Rules are selectively being enforced which directly decide the outcome of games.
The refs will spend 20 minutes looking at single frames of video deciding if a puck is 1mm in or out of play but willfully ignore someone getting smashed in the face with a stick.
The last few summers I have decompressed and taken time to reassess continuing to follow the NHL and I will do so again this summer.
But every ounce of skill was taken behind the woodshed and boot stomped this year during the playoffs and what is remaining at this point is frankly ugly and I have no interest in watching any more.
The NHL needs to start reviewing penalties. I don’t have a tinfoil hat on that there is some anti Canada conspiracy, i just think the refs make mistakes when the pace of the game is so high.
Its tough though as infractions happen during the course of play and the whistle never goes (Case in point Ekholm last night) Is someone watching off the ice and blows the play dead in these situations? A challenge type option?
I think it’s tough to implement but the NHL needs to figure it out. The reffing was a joke this year
Couldn’t agree more with you!
Staios would be so Oilers. Maybe bring back Gretzky to coach?😆
It does not look like Eichel and Las Vegas are leaving the Pacific anytime soon….so if you are blaming luck and randomness for what transpired- that is not very encouraging for next year’s playoffs.
It will be an interesting offseason for Vegas.
All their key players are locked up and none are really on unreasonable contracts save for Robin Lehner who would be an easy buy out candidate.
Their goaltending will be somewhat up in the air as all of Broissoit, Hill and Quick are UFA.
Martinez is getting a little long in the tooth but has only one season left at $5.25 million while McNabb is 32 but is signed to a very team friendly $2.85 million for another two seasons.
If they successfully sort out their goaltending and have reasonable health, their tremendous depth should make them strong contenders.
Agreed. That is my point.
We need a solution to our 2nd line losing quite badly.
Its not a tinker around the edges kind of problem.
Leon needs 2 new wingers ( Kostin? ) Maybe Holloway?
This issue is not as easy to solve as people think.
For the first time in a over a decade – the problem is not the bottom 6.
I find finding 2 top 6 NHL forwards to be a tall task to solve.
Can Darnell Nurse be the solution on the Right side defense?
He has the mobility to play the week side and he might choose to pass it for an icing less on his back hand.
Broberg is supposed to be the top #4 LHD of the future why not let him start now.
It would be easier than finding/affording a RHD replacement for Ceci.
Disappointing end to the season but I do think this Oilers team has the potential to win a cup in the next few years. At the end of the day the team still gives up too many goals and it killed them. I couldn’t help but notice Vegas players commenting on how the Oilers play man to man and eventually they can beat their guy to the net. I like Woodcroft but this team can’t play this style and be successful in the playoffs. Every year with the same core they get lit up for 4 goals a game when the pressure is on. Vegas formed a collapsed box in their zone and the Oilers couldn’t penetrate it. The Oilers on the other hand chased players all over ice until no one was defending in front of their net. Need to simplify that system. Veterans like Nurse still running out of position.
Goaltending. I felt bad for Skinner seeing him on the bench. He started all 12 playoff games and in the end his game completely fell apart. Its Campbell’s fault for having such a crap season that the coach didn’t feel comfortable starting him in any playoff games. That being said It was clear Skinner was struggling and the coach didn’t adjust. Skinner was overreacting to every shot and losing position in his net. His puck handling was also very poor. I just felt that if Woodcroft started Campbell in game 6 he could have said to himself that he exhausted all options. It clearly wasn’t working with Skinner. He was pulled 3 out of his last 4 starts. No team advances deep into the playoffs with an .883 save percentage. I have to say I’m concerned about coming back with the same tandem next year and expecting both goalies to improve. Maybe they will, maybe they won’t. If the Oilers get to the trade deadline next season and their goaltenders are not looking good then Holland with have to pick up a rental goalie to add some insurance. The organization can’t let McDavid die on the vine in his prime because of one bad goaltending contract.
Jack Eichel was fantastic in this series and put on a clinic defensively. I think McDavid and Draisaitl are going to feel the sting of being outplayed 5 on 5. As good as these guys are on the power play their 5 on 5 game still needs improvement. Not just those two either. Deep into the second round I saw guys flying the zone regularly before the puck had left their end. It’s concerning that Woodcroft still hasn’t been able to reign this in.
In the end I think it is clear who wasn’t able to elevate their game in the playoffs and Holland should be able to swap a few guys out this offseason. I’m thinking another Ekholm type trade. Better luck next year.
Kulak was a perfect 3 LD, but may be too costly, especially if it’s time for Broberg at a few mill less and you need that money to shore up other areas
Foegele showed his worth. keep him
Yamo is too costly for not enough on the scoresheet. Does a lot, but he isn’t top 6 and will make more then $3 mill next year. Too costly for his production.
Kulak
Ceci was hurt probably, and overwhelmed. Needs to move on if we take the next step.
targets UFA
But Kulak and Yamo have value, so you could use them in a hockey trade for sure and address top 6 W or bottom 6. No time to hoard 1st’s, this is an all in summer. the 1st plus Yamo and any other kid is worth it to give this group 2 more years of running for the cup.
Kulak was maybe their second best D man in the playoffs. With a 2.75 million cap hit I don’t think he should be moved out.
I like him, but as a 3LD he is costly. And with Broberg you either play him or move him. And Kulak will have more value to someone as a 2LD and help us address other needs.
Sucks, but asset management will be huge this off season. And made easier if Holland steps back from GM and someone else moves in, then there is no bias or loyalty to recent draft picks or young players.
At this exact time, I would keep Kulak and move Broberg. It would not save money but it would transfer Broberg’s value into another asset, perhaps right wing.
Broberg is young, plays even younger. I still see a Bambi. Hes closer to becoming Puljujarvi than Kulak.
I also like him but agree with whichever poster: Move on, play Bro the whole year to see what you got, upgrade as needed at the deadline.
It would be something if in addition to that and beforehand, they could both extend Bouch and upgrade another defender. That assuredly cuts into the forward depth, but Oil D got exposed this series imo, and that includes backtrack contributions from forwards such as Yamo, who tho good at times I can’t see returning.
Thanks to LT and all who made the year enjoyable by posting on the Lowetide blog. It is my belief that the team will be better next year and win Stanley. Have a great summer everyone!
Thank you. This really is the best post.
Hey folks,
I had some quick thoughts on Twitter and tried my best in 280 characters to sum this series up. Bear with me on an expanded version.
1) This team was a team that had two helicopter lines (no wings) for the entire playoffs. Just not enough from Nuge, Kane, Hyman, and Yamamoto. Injuries are a part of the life of an NHL player and for people to rely on that is an excuse and a tired one. Every team still in the playoffs has guys who are hurting. This top six is the easiest top six to play against in the entire league. Rick Bowness mentioned no pushback for the Jets in their series. This was textbook no pushback.
2) Cody Ceci had about as bad a playoffs as his regular season was and he needs to be press box material, trade bait, or shifted down to #6 or 7 on the depth chart. Nurse is the 9 Million dollar mistake that will continue to hamstring this team for the remaining 7 years of his deal and he will regress as he ages. He is not, and never will be a #1 d-man and no one will ever convince me of that.
3) It’s nice when rookies surpass expectations, but rookies tire after a long stretch, and fatigue plays a factor. Skinner and Desharnais will be better next season. They both just ran out of gas. It happens from peewees all the way up. Part of this, is bench management and Woodcroft should know this. I know that, and my coaching career is about as far from the pros as a cow to the moon. It’s called macro and micro cycles and if Woodcroft doesn’t know that, he’s not the guy to trust with young players. In Woodcroft’s defense, Holland failed, absolutely failed in signing Campbell, so what does Woodcroft do? Still, you can’t ride a rookie for that long and not expect them to get fatigued.
4) Woodcroft was totally outcoached this series by a coach who looked at the analytics and made adjustments. My goodness, there are people on Twitter who clearly showed how poor some players were playing against Eichel, but yet, time and time again, Woodcroft threw them out there like a WWI general throwing line of line of soldiers out as cannon fodder. The shine on Woodcroft has begin to diminish.
Anyway, that’s my take on it. If this same roster is intact next season, then expect the same result.
I haven’t been on here as much this past season, due to my increased involvement with BC Hockey on the Indigenous Inclusion Committee, and we’re doing great things. My involvement will only grow next season as my daughter at the ripe age of 10 has decided she wants to be a hockey player and she wants me to coach her. Maybe the coach will take over the crazy and I find the coaching keeps me sane.
I will be cheering though.
but rookies tire after a long stretch
This is why I disliked the Ekholm trade at the time, even though the player was (and is) obviously a great fit. Without Barrie, the trade meant that Desharnais would be logging plenty of playoff minutes. And it meant we were cashing in our chips in a year when we depended on a rookie goaltender. I hate to say that both of those concerns were vindicated.
I fail to follow your logic that gaining Ekholm and playing Desharnais led to Skinner fatiguing.
One of the best posts of the day.
Warning, long post alert: please feel free to skip along to either shorter or better observations.
I’m neither one to make the sky is falling argument nor am I one to go full pollyanna and suggest that everything is fine. To quote the corrupt mayor of Springfield, ‘It can be two things’ (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aKOQWbTdxy8).
I see the ‘it’s a wasted season’ argument, but not simply because they lost the series. That’s hockey, it happens. We know McDavid torched the league, Leon had the 2nd best non-McDavid season since the dawn of the cap era, Nuge & Hyman had career years and the team no longer has draft capital to cash in the future or the cap space to ensure the present foundation is…well.. present. To lose in the 2nd round after a regular season the likes of which we in Oilervillle (or in the Oiler diaspora like where myself and so many others reside) haven’t seen in ages hurts like hell, but there’s more to the story than one series.
There is an established core locked up for a couple more years, smart veteran players who were punched in the mouth and likely won’t want to ever taste their own blood again. They will learn, they will grow, but it’s going to take some serious financial gymnastics to keep the core in place, find a top 6 RW that hits like Sam Bennett and scores like him too, a top 4 RD who can stabilize Nurse the way Ekholm stabilizes Bouchard and a 4th line that can be counted on for more than 6-8 minutes in a close playoff series. It’s easy to talk about trading pieces like Yamo and Ceci, but given their performances this season relative to their cap hits. Actually moving them out to free up the space necessary to extend Bouchard and find their replacements in the top 6 and top 4 is the hard part. This set of problems is where the wasted season perspective makes more sense – taking a macro level view of the roster relative to the season; the strengths, the needs and the money long term combined with the Bostons and Colorados of the league bowing out early and one gets the sense that this really was the year.
Beyond the financial and roster construction realities, the team needs to figure out 5v5 play, and to my untrained eye, the issue is more defensively than offensively. The team can score goals when they’re healthy, but defending was a problem in this series and for long stretches of the regular season as well. At the end of the season, the team looked like it could handle anyone. You saw defencemen collapsing to the front of the net and clearing people from the crease – Ekholm especially, but in his case I wonder if it was more about him playing instinctively rather than playing within Manson’s system. A lot of the collapsing/crease clearing disappeared in the playoffs, with more defenders chasing the play, especially the Nurse/Ceci pairing. The teams I saw most, (LA, VGK & FLA by virtue of having attended games 2 & 5 here in Toronto and marrying into a Leafs-loving family) almost seemed to be playing a hybrid Ricki-box defence, (protecting home plate, for those readers who weren’t here for the days of Ricki the Bear’s many posts about defensive systems) with more mobility than I think our Bear-friend envisioned. FLA in particular were so quick to clear the crease and make sure Bobrovsky could see everything, and they have defenders capable of quick breakout passes, long-distance lob passes and the ability to break the cycle with ease (Gudas is a prick, but I’d love him in blue and orange). Too many players up high looking for a jail break, not enough emphasis on crease clearing or attention to detail in the slot.
Obviously 5v5 play in the O-zone was impacted by injuries in the top 6 that I’m sure we’ll learn about in due time, but even the Oilers best game of the series (game 4) wasn’t a complete game; it was a strong 40 minutes and then they let up for the final 20. That can’t happen. All season long the Oilers didn’t seem to show up on time or they would blow leads late. That simply can’t happen. especially come playoff time, and that’s on the players, not the coaches or management.
The team is at a very interesting place; a year out from the Draisaitl decision combined with being a year out from the alleged cap jump. A roster that looks great on paper but couldn’t compete 5v5 with a Vegas team with superstars of their own and more depth up and down the roster, but is also a roster that is a lot older than I think we all realize. Hyman, Kane, Ekholm & Nuge are all on the wrong side of 30; Leon and McDavid may be the exceptions to the aging curve as superstars usually are, but we as fans also can’t count on them to be at their supernova level peak for much longer. Nurse will be in year 10 next season. Where the team goes from here is a bit of a mystery.
For now, we wait.
This really was the year, with the record-setting power play, everybody in their prime, balance, and Boston/Colorado/Rangers/Leafs/Tampa eliminated. (It hurts just to write that last one – the path was easier than it’ll ever be.)
All season long the Oilers didn’t seem to show up on time or they would blow leads late.
Yeah, this team just can’t seem to play the way they need to. They weren’t dominant enough for long enough in the playoffs, and they continued to spot teams big leads.
In the end, I think Campbell over Kuemper was the fateful decision. Kenny has put together a good, good team, but goaltending was and is the achilles heel.
yes, people are missing this fact. Only so many years of Peak McDavid and Drai.
Great comments
I see the same things. I would add that whatever plans they have offensively aren’t right. They are easily stymied by teams collapsing into the slot and not breaking down easily as the Knights did
The Oilers actually had better underlying stats than the Knights except one thing, scoring on their chances. The same issues were around all season even though it was masked by career years, every stats piece I saw has the same thoughts usually
NHL SID at ON pointed out what I mentioned yesterday. I see this as failure to score a system issue. I think they rely on the Duo too much to make things happen with skill. Other teams have a plan of attack that goes beyond getting the puck deep and banging it around until something opens up or whatever
The Knights were more effective on the rush finding open players and they finished. The Oilers made this too easy for them for sure. The Oilers flubbed a ton of these. On the cycle it was Ryan who made the kind of play that is needed against teams like Vegas. Foegele did his part and drove the net and Ryan hit him on time and it’s in
The other thing not happening enough was purposeful screens tips and shot passes. If the goalie is good and the team D is in position you have to do this or you can’t score reliably. Even PP sometimes. Also shooting for rebounds with people in the right place. This is coaching and the Oilers don’t do this methodically when they are in a tough game
Nurse is especially prone to taking shots from the point the goalie is set for with no Oilers there. Not going to score much from there doing that
I am sorry – but I find it very,very disheartening that Eichel did not just
‘win’ the matchup. He outright *humiliated* the matchup.
Against the most prolific parts of our team- in their prime.
We can talk about a good season all we want.
We did not make it out of the 2nd round. ( nor even to a game 7)
McDavid will be 27 next year and Drai 28
I am not so sure that Connor and Leon alone lost the matchup vs Eichel. Barbashev and Marchessault supported Eichel while the wingers for Connor and Leon never did their expected part.
Fully agree….
Maybe I am too much the glass half full type, but I see positive growth this year. We won 109 points in the regular season, traded for a beastly 2LD and saw Bouchard’s immense potential begin to emerge.
I don’t think firing the coaching staff or GM is wise and would hold course with some targeted moves. I would also focus on winning a cup to the potential detriment of the future. Specifically:
One last thing to add….Woodcroft and player leaders (McDavid, Draisaitl, others) have found answers to problems facing this team. I have faith that both he, and they, will learn from this and adjust next year
What answers specifically have they found? Cassidy and company figured them all out.
@PierreVLebrun
Auston Matthews: “my intention is to be here.”
When asked on his long term future with the Leafs
Yeah a player has never said that before and still left. I think a big piece of his decision may rest on who the management team and coaching staff are next year. If he likes the direction he’ll sign, if not, he will be gone before July 1.
“I’ve been here for 11 years and haven’t got to that ultimate goal. It’s been a while since they’ve won here, so I think that would be pretty special — to win a Cup here,” Gaudreau said. “It’s something that I kind of dreamed about my whole life, and Calgary is a great place to do it.””
Maybe AM is sincere, but we’ve heard this sentiment before. Personally, I’m fine with him staying in TO
Video.
https://twitter.com/tsn_sports/status/1658144862024212482?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PTEqZURh4o
LT, thanks again for another season of being a voice of calm and reason in the Oilogosphere. It is welcome and needed.
I think we have a good one in Skinner but I also expect a bounce-back from Campbell. The season is long, especially in the West, and two solid keepers are not a luxury but a necessity. Would not be surprised to see the balance of games played and the perception of who is the Oilers’ starter switch to Campbell by next spring.
If Nuge was not injured I’m not sure what the hell we have but he needs to be better. Nurse was lost last night, maybe it is hard to play with a plug like Ceci, but Nurse plays with a plug because he makes 2 mill more than he should.
Goalies have to steal games in the playoffs, our goalies stole 0 playoffs games and now we burn $5 mill a year on a back up. Cap management is important, the Oil are terrible at it by definition, because Alberta is a bad tax jurisdiction in a city with bad weather, we have to overpay to retain core pieces. Nevada has 0 state income tax, Texas 0, FLA 0, Tennessee 0 … see a pattern?
I see two more kicks at the cat, Leon’s contract expires in 2 years and I can not see how we can have him, and Connor at $14 per …this is it baby, 1 more year and then it is decision time on Leon and the future of the franchise. Holland has a massive off season staring him in the face and I suggest he may as well push all in … mortgage the future and try for a cup over the next 2 years … after 24/25 its jokers wild for the franchise.
Well said. Not a word out of place 😜
Tough end to the season. 3 root causes from my pov.
1) Woodcroft was outcoached by Cassidy. Surest tell on this was VGK’s second period dominance. That’s the period where you’ve seen what the other HC is doing tactically in the first and you’ve adjusted in the intermission. Numerous examples where Woody stay married to bad matchups, was outfoxed tactically, and was indecisive on his goalie usage.
2) Vegas D Corps was much much better than the Oilers D Corps. LT has already flagged Ceci and Nurse and I’ll add Desharnais, Bouchard, and Broberg to that list as Dmen who struggled defensively. Bouchard had his coming out party offensively but those strong numbers offensively mask the deficiencies on the back end. He’s a very passive Dman that doesn’t gap consistently and aggressively. Ekholm is the only D that can consistently stifle the cycle on the wall. Vegas won this matchup decisively and it was the difference in the series imo.
3) Well, that Jack Campbell signing worked out really well…. Stuart Skinner will face even more shots over the coming days but the rookie saved the season and his D Corps gave up way more dangerous chances than the Knights. With the season on the line, starting Campbell was not a viable option for Woodcroft. That’s on Ken. There were better options available and the Dutchman’s marquee FA signing was a non factor and a huge reason Leon is summing this up as a ‘wasted season.’
I don’t know if Butch Cassidy is a better coach than Woodie. But he certainly was on this occasion. Vegas is also a veteran group defensively with more depth, they survived the suspension of their top defender with more ease than the Oilers, I’m not even sure Nurse is Edmontons top defender. I have to say they figured out Skinner simply because the team in front of him didn’t support him to the extent VGK support their goaltenders, allowing Hill to shut the door with not much difficulty.
Then it seemed Vegas took over the series after that, I can’t think of the proper adjective to describe (fourth game) which the Oil actually won. But things changed after that. You have to give VGK credit for magnificent management of the 7-game series, which didn’t need a seventh game They had a plan and they stuck to it. I honestly believe they will win it all this year. It’s usually the cup winner that defeats the Oilers enroute to the cup finals.
Fully agree with you. Vegas was the better team throughout the series and was full marks for the win. The cap manipulation is annoying but the team is exceptionally well built and managed. Their D and system play is so strong, they won the division deservedly despite having a goalie carousel and no defacto number 1. That’s impressive. Four WCF berths in six years. They’re legit.
The weird thing is that we did exceptionally well in the second period throughout the regular season.
Higher degree of difficulty in the playoffs when a team is getting so familiar with you. A HC needs a deeper bag of adjustments.
Cassidy kept finding ways for the Knights forecheck to stifle the Oilers’ breakout. That had to be a primary focus for both teams and VGK stayed one step ahead until most of the Oilers Top 6 were nonfactors. It was frankly demoralizing to watch in how inevitable the result seemed from Game 5 on.
While 97 and 29 put up video game seasons, the answer is to not run them 22 to 26 minutes a game for 95 games. It’s the same mistake over and over again. Keep these superstars on separate lines and keep them under 20 minutes. That gives guys like Kostin the opportunity to make a difference and doesn’t gas the two guys who can bring home Stanley. That’s my only gripe in an otherwise tremendously entertaining season.
Agreed this would be a great approach for the regular season.
This series was a harsh lesson. Hopefully equivalent to “Tampa Bay loses to Columbus”. The team has flaws, some of the core players need to identify that their offensive contributions do not balance out their defensive liabilities and then we’ll see the promised land.
Sidebar: the hate for Yamamoto reminds me of how telegraphed Eberle’s exit was. Be prepared for a very chintzy return.
This (in addition to LT’s takes) is important for context. A team has to learn how to win.
The team learned from 2 straight disappointing exits and made it to the Western Finals last year. This year, we may very well have run into the team that should win the west (and possibly the cup) in the 2nd round, and are learning what it takes to get over the final hump. It’s part of the process.
Like all teams, there are flaws (3 young d-men, a young goalie, a goalie who struggled big), injuries (Kane, Ceci, others) but the window has not closed on this core, it’s just the urgency has increased and that will help motivate them.
And this will help a coach who already plays a good game of chess analyze what he can do better.
Yamamoto in this series played 14:12 per game, much of it with a quality C, & produced 0-2-2, with 18 PiM, and -6 tradititonal +/-, all of it earned at evens (+2/-8). He was in the low 40s in all shot & scoring chance metrics, with 35% expected goals. He mustered 4 (four) shots on goal in the entire series.
I have no hate for Kailer Yamamoto, none. But that is not performance at any price, let alone $3+ million.
Have you seen how much better of a well rounded player Eberle is since he left Edmonton…..Yamamoto is no Eberle.