During the 2010’s, the Edmonton Oilers did a fine job of procuring significant offensive forwards in the first round. There was incredible luck, four No. 1 overall picks in six years requires one big horseshoe, but it’s also true the club found quality in some depth areas of the draft (2017 and 2018). The heart of this list remains in Edmonton, and are in pursuit of the Stanley. Will they make it?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Is the Oilers’ usage of Philip Broberg a tell?
- New DNB: Will the Oilers and Golden Knights ever both play well in the same game this playoff series?
- Lowetide: What’s the key to Oilers having more success at 5-on-5?
- DNB: Oilers’ losses inevitably put a spotlight on Cody Ceci
- DNB: Why Oilers stars Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are better off apart vs. the Golden Knights
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers’ 6 biggest playoff surprises so far
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- New DNB: Oilers flash power-play strength, ‘identity’ in Vegas
- Lowetide: Oilers’ young players taking on bigger role in 2023 playoffs
- DNB: Why Oilers’ playoff fate depends on Ryan Nugent-Hopkins finding another gear
- DNB: Oilers’ Leon Draisaitl’s 4-goal outburst doesn’t mask Game 1 disappointment
- Lowetide: 6 keys to Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft’s playoff success
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combo is the ultimate luxury: ‘It’s magic’
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers beat the Kings — and can beat the Golden Knights
- Lowetide: 6 biggest AHL Bakersfield Condors stories from 2022-23 season
- DNB: Oilers move on to Round 2 after Kailer Yamamoto’s goal rescues them from Stuart Skinner’s blooper
- Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway’s future NHL role?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
PAIRINGS FOR TONIGHT
Darnell Nurse won’t play tonight and that means lots of work for the remainder of the team’s veteran group. I mentioned yesterday that a second pairing of Brett Kulak-Cody Ceci made sense to me, and I thought it might be an idea to run the possible duos for tonight and their five-on-five totals together from the regular season.
- Broberg-Bouchard: 334 mins, 19-18 goals, 60 pct expected goals
- Ekholm-Bouchard: 290 mins, 27-8 goals, 61 pct expected goals
- Kulak-Desharnais: 242 mins, 13-9 goals, 53 pct expected goals
- Kulak-Bouchard: 219 mins, 7-13 goals, 49 pct expected goals
- Kulak-Ceci: 121 mins, 5-4 goals, 54 pct expected goals
- Niemelainen-Bouchard: 77 mins, 5-4 goals, 56 pct expected goals
- Kulak-Broberg: 51 mins, 3-3 goals, 55 pct expected goals
- Broberg-Desharnais: 40 mins, 2-1 goals, 59 pct expected goals
- Ekholm-Broberg: 14 mins, 2-0 goals, 92 pct expected goals
- Ekholm-Desharnais: 13 mins, 1-0 goals, 53 pct expected goals
There are some interesting combinations in there, but I think the top four should be Ekholm-Bouchard, Kulak-Ceci. I do see value in Broberg-Bouchard, that would allow Ekholm-Ceci and Kulak-Desharnais to breathe. This will be an important decision and we’ll know by midnight how it all turns out. Less than ideal heading into such an important game, but Vegas has as a big a problem (or more) with the absence of Alex Pietrangelo.
ABOUT TONIGHT
Often when a series boils over, there’s an awkward period where teams don’t know what will be called a penalty. I think we might see a parade to the sinbin early tonight, that favours Edmonton. I also think Vegas will be the team coming out of the gate in a helluva hurry, and the Oilers will need to weather the storm (VGK did not in Game 4).
I thought I saw the Oilers solve some problems in the last game, including structure on the penalty kill. Edmonton hasn’t surrendered a goal-against on the PK since Game 1, but Vegas had eight full minutes with the man advantage in Game 4 and didn’t score.
If I’m being honest with you, this series is too close to call. Edmonton has the leading scorer in the series (first place tie between Draisaitl, 6-1-7, and McDavid, 2-5-7) and the No. 1 scoring defenseman (Evan Bouchard 2-3-5) since May 3. Edmonton also has (imo) a slight edge in goal, and now that 97-29 are split it’s my opinion the forwards are about equal with Edmonton’s fantastic top end winning the day.
It’s all close enough for me to call it a dead heat. That may not be what you’re hoping for, but if you never bet against McDavid life will treat you well. I predicted Edmonton in seven games, the series has turned out as expected save for the ridiculous and lopsided final scores.
THE FUTURE
The top end of this list is driving results for the Oilers, and in the case of McDavid and Draisaitl the top flight performances should run through the end of the decade and beyond. It’s that Bourgault-Lavoie-Tullio axis you should be looking at now, along with names like Dylan Holloway and Maxim Berezkin. The Oilers don’t have an impact scoring forward on the horizon, owing to using the final top-10 picks of the McDavid cluster on Evan Bouchard and Philip Broberg. Here’s the summer 2015 NHLE:
There are two franchise centers on this list, and they were screaming about their talent that summer via NHLE. Darnell Nurse was 20 and showing his offense and Ethan Bear was doing same. The “group who got away” based on this list isn’t massive, there are no 30-point NHLE forwards who skipped the light fantastic in another NHL town. Brad Hunt and Jordan Oesterle did find a home in other towns. Here are the 2023 NHLE’s:
I count Petrov, Berezkin, Raphael Lavoie, Max Wanner and Olivier Rodrigue as the notables, and so it is Petrov who the Oilers must work on developing in the next 12 months. I would also suggest paying attention to Xavier Bourgault. He had a fascinating season in the AHL and showed more range than anticipated, but I suspect we’ll see him in a more prominent offensive role with Bakersfield in 2023-24.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
10-2 today, TSN 1260, wall to wall Oilers talk as Game 5 awaits! Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and more guests will give us insight into suspensions, game plans and possible outcomes. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
I was in the midst of writing this post, but then the Mother’s Day blog disappeared!?! Brilliant Post Today, LT. Hopefully it can be recovered…
………………………………………
Jay is not going to change how he operates, to Skinner will be his choice. I think it is a mistake, in a fact as a non-gambler, I would put money on an Oilers win if Campbell got the start. This coming from someone who was very active in March posting about cutting Campbell loose this summer. But I try to not be blinded by my own biases or others’ opinions.
Skinner is no steady Eddy during this post-season, he has consistently made me nervous. Despite 2 great games, he has also let in 4 or more goals in 4 of his last 6 starts, 2 of which were games where he was pulled. I have no confidence in him to be able to make the big save or to be steady over 2 consecutive games. I don’t trust his game right now.
In his 5 appearances since April Campbell is 3-0, has a 1.23 Goals against average and has a 0.974 save percentage. He’s basically only let in 3 goals in just over 3.5 games. If Demers hadn’t made a silly mistake in his first NHL game in 2 years, it would only be 2 goals allowed and he would closed out the season with 2 consecutive shutouts.
Campbell has now reached a level of consistency in performance that he only displayed during an 8 game stretch from 11 Jan to 15 Feb, where he went 8-0 , had a GAA of 2.40 and a save percentage of 0.917. I think he has his game back and to me he is clearly a superior option over Skinner.
If the goal is to win the Stanley Cup, Campbell is guy you are paying to do so and he is playing like it. If your goal is to show loyalty, that is letting your emotions get in the way of sound decision-making.
I am hoping for the best, but I am very cynical that this is the formula for success.
It’s already up.
I can’t believe the website lost such a beautiful blog post from LT today.
Hopefully you can rescue it and repost LT.
Go Oilers
It’s already up.
Wasn’t sure what I would have to say after that. My sister provided the answer, texted me the following …
Fun fact: since I don’t like Eichel, I looked up his name but I spelled it wrong…
Eikel in Dutch means penis – so yeah, he’s a prick/dick
So there. Frustrated.
Did the oilers even throw a hit tonight? Looked like the were scared of the refs. Where was the intensity?
Damn that kolosar hit on Ek was dirty.
Leon didn’t have a good game
Didn’t have his skating legs and when not skating he is not nearly as dangerous. His heavy play all playoffs has got to be tiring. Hope he can rest up for next two games
One horrible penalty call changed everything. The Oilers were in the game imo.
Just sucks pretty much
The lucky team won.
Hrudey and Read talking Stampede Wrestling just cheered me up 🤣🤣🤣
Game 6 will be a ring a ding dong dandy
Haha yes
Even if they’re able to pull it out in 7 – 8 more wins after playing this many games is usually too much.
They needed a short series and are instead playing with no urgency.
Maybe. Just have to focus on bringing their best in the next one. Rinse. Repeat
Yep, these long series are killers. Was showing up already tonight
Drai cooled off these last 3 games. 1 apple, -3.
Just means they’re ready to forget about him.
Upcoming three point game.
Missed Nurse this game for sure. You can see his value especially when not in lineup but you also have to live with his poor decision making, like don’t need to take a fight with a guy asking late in a game you’re winning. Oilers should know not to give refs or leagues a chance to screw us because they will.. every time
That call on broberg from center ice is absolute garbage. That was the turning point.
Agreed. It’s as if, to become an NHL official, you have to forget everything you’ve been taught over the course of your career. I’ve been on both sides of that whole “reaching into the other ref’s kitchen” situation, and there were some very heated words exchanged in the dressing room between periods. Bottom line is this – it’s about working as a team and about the game, not about making sure you get to the next round of the playoffs.
Yeah, but the Oilers really let their foot off the gas for large portions of the 2nd and 3rd. Las Vegas out-hounded the Oilers for a hell of a lot of loose pucks tonight.
Some Oilers blog writer picked Oilers in 6 for the LA series and Oilers in 7 for the Vegas series. Seems like he’s watched some hockey before. Maybe he’s on to something.
He better be
The refs were trash, and I hate this league. They should have had Nurse, and the Golden Showers should have never had a 5v3.
But the Oilers shat the bed. This team looked nothing like the team from last game. It’s frustrating how one night they play like an unbeatable force, and the next they do… this. Couldn’t get anything done 5v5. Leaving Stone alone in front of the net all game. No physicality whatsoever. The Golden Showers played like the Edmonton Oilers of Game 4.
That being said, I am still expecting a series W. They play better when they have no choice but to play at the top of their game.
I disagree vehemently.
The Oilers were in control until they got tangled with the Zebras. Vegas had NOTHING after the 1-1 goal until they had everything.
Dont mistake the final score, no matter how frustrating, for what happened otherwise..
This was LA fluking out a win.
The Oilers are sitting just fine as long as they stay out of the damn box.
Hard to stay out of the box when refs just make shit up.
Seems like the team is sluggish as hell every other game, it’s as if they can only keep the intensity and sharp passing up for one game and then need the next game to reset by skating through coughing syrup. This felt like a loss as soon as Vegas took the lead, noone outside of McDavid made any actual plus plays with the puck for the rest of the game.
And yes the second Broberg penalty that lead to the 3v5 was absolutely silly from the refs but it is what it is. Team needs to be better.
Also Skinner needs to be better. Might be time to start with some soup next game.
Drive the god damn net, shoot the puck … frustrating
Go back to Skinner next game, then to Campbell game 7 because Skinner seems to play well alternating games.
If Nurse is I think it’s 3-2 EDM.
RNH an insane CF 30% ( SF of 20%)
Hyman CF 39%
Yamamoto CF 39%
Even score effects could not help them
Woof
Campbell looked good.
Oilers lose 5 on 5, 4th GA weak on Skinner, and a Bouch post the difference. Who starts in goal on Sunday?
Jeesus Fucking Christ,
At least the Oilers couldn’t possibly play any worse.
Out worked almost every shift.
Except McDavid, he was brilliant again
This didn’t happen… At all.
What did you see RNH, Hyman and Yamamoto do tonight?
I watched Hyman score the 2nd off a Nuge shot/pass. I watched both create diversions on the 1st. I saw neither get suckered on the PK that sank the team while Nuge led part of the brigade that killed off three straight earlier in the game.
I saw them get hemmed in for a long shift in the third that everyone is now keying in on.
What did you see?
intensity wasn’t there.
How be we substitute Holy F&$#ing Mohammad instead?
Equality & all.
Welp……not over yet, keep the faith! Nothing like a game 7 in the NHL!
For the very first time, I would start Campbell.
100% Campbell was full value.
Not quite good enough boys. Campbell look confident in net. Skinner was swimming all night. Time for Campbell to earn that contract.
Don’t take the wrong lessons folks. Vegas is tired and the Oilers have jam.
Terrible 90 seconds on a phantom call killed the. They needed to be and should have been betterZ but don’t mistake that 90 seconds for Vegas doing anything good for the rest of the game.
It’s the LA series now. Vegas is tired.
Its the Oilers series to lose.
Nic Hague with the game winning goal tonight…..
Gross
Irony hurts.
Lucky shot.
The guy who should have gotten the instigator penalty
I would start Campbell next game. He looks good. Skinner has started 12 straight games. He’s a rookie. Give him a rest.
Same. He looked sharp there.
So you sit the guy who brought you to the dance in your first elimination game? That is a terrible message to your team.
Id fire Woody on the spot if he started Soup.
Boston decided not to sit Ullmark, and look where that got them.
Skinner has struggled 2 of the last 3, and Campbell has looked good every time he’s come in as relief, plus the stretch to end the regular season.
If your season is on the line, you go with the hot hand.
Soup has come in relief and stole a biggy in Hollywood. That is awesome. But he hasn’t started a game in a month and was being spot started against the Ducks, Yotes and Sharks for the month before that.
I thought Stu could have been bigger on the 2-2 goal. The next two were on the team falling asleep ahead of him. They shat the bed for 90 seconds and it burned them. Just like it did against LA.
He didn’t get pulled for playing bad he got pulled to wake his team up.
I don’t see anything more than that and it’s beyond obvious he starts Game 6 IMO.
It’s a team sport. Campbell’s on the team
Skinner was terrible let Campbell take over it’s all about winning not about hurting Millionaires itty bitty feelings.
This one is going 7 and we have to pray for refs that don’t want to be the show in upcoming games.
Start Campbell play Kostin more send Broberg back to the Swedish glass factory
You score 3 PP goals in a playoff game…..and you lose the game.
Vegas is dominating at 5V5
Thats how you win in the long run.
How do we get rid of you?
Win games. He doesn’t have courage to make negative comments when the Oilers win.
Either ignore him or laugh at him. Can’t say I’ve been consistent in either one (he does get my goat sometmes), but I am told it can work….
This was true through game three.
It’s sawn off or been tilted Oilers since.
momentum is on the Oilers side too.
They can beat themselves or they can win. It’s up to them.
One shite call after terrible decisions on suspensions and goaltending the difference.
This team thinks it can slack it’s way to a title.
It is ridiculous.
The Knights did a whole lot of nothing.
Oilers did even less.
What game did you watch?
Vegas won all the battles and worked the Oilers into a fine white powder
Vegas was the better team tonight, I’m sorry to say. Not sure what was going on but several Oilers seemed sub-par, compared to their previous normal.
Thats not what happened. You’re letting the PK cloud your judgement
Damn that’s too bad.
Oh well, flush it and move on.
Way too many passengers tonight, pretty disappointing effort.
double farg
Fucking deep depth players killed us tonight.
Foegele
Janmark
Broberg
Nuge hyman Kane drai
Would think it is pretty rare to score 3 PP goals and lose the game. Vegas checking like demons. They are a good team, spits. The game turned on the shite call on Broberg. Even if Janmark still takes a penalty, Oiler PK has been good but 5 on 3 pretty tough. Going to have to win two in a row. Tall task but certainly doable. May consider watching next game on mute….
They only had 4 and scored 3. Vegas had 7 and only scored 2 .
Why TF do the Oilers look like they’re the ones up by one?
That was a dozen terrible decisions with the puck in the offensive zone in a row. . .
Sheesh, can’t expect to win like that.
Nuge with a soft net drive.His shoulder may be fd again
McDavid passes up 3 shooting chances with under a minute left.
WTF???
No shots
Well that McDavid pass to no one sums it up
When was the last time they scored with the goalie pulled?
2017
We need a shot on net
get the rebound
Timeout? They failed a coach’s challenge?
It’s a penalty now.
I thought it was both, my bad.
I’m surprised the NHL didn’t change the rule on the fly to punish us.
Shoot!!!!
They need shots and they keep passing it on the perimeter.
2 minutes left and play has started? Let’s talk up Eichel and show you some highlights, like that great play drawing a penalty by holding a stick.