This is the Edmonton Oilers 50-man list on March 1, 2017. There are some interesting names on this list, several players still in the NHL and productive. This team would go on to have success in the postseason of 2017, winning a series against the San Jose Sharks and pushing the Anaheim Ducks to the brink in a cla-ghastly Game 7.
I think we can agree the current team is better. Why then can’t they win one damn thing? Lots of reasons, including a new system, injuries and lack of foot speed in some important places. Today, we look at a possible future. We also reach the conclusion good grief Oilers. Get yourself together!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ injuries already a major story in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers count on any short-term help from AHL Bakersfield?
- Lowetide: Can defenceman Noel Hoefenmayer help the Oilers?
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s injury only adds to gloom for Oilers
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ third line showing promise but not scoring yet
- DNB: Oilers, in early-season disarray, left searching for answers: ‘It’s just unacceptable’
- Lowetide: What we’ve learned about the Oilers in the NHL season’s first week
- Lowetide: How can Oilers coach Jay Woodcroft solve the team’s early issues?
- Lowetide: Why the Edmonton Oilers’ AHL team is set up for 2023-24 success
- DNB: Several Oilers defensive issues remain despite Mattias Ekholm’s return
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers’ Connor Brown contract could impact roster decisions
- DNB: Stanley Cup-aspiring Oilers have a long way to go after ‘big gut punch’ in season opener
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ opening-night roster is short two foundational pieces
- DNB: Why Raphael Lavoie didn’t make the Oilers and other roster questions ahead of regular-season opener
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
THE FUTURE
I think the Oilers will have a new GM and coach by next summer, maybe before. Jay Woodcroft is a smart coach but he can’t get this team to play tight defense and that will end his Oilers coaching career. The New York Rangers looked like the perfect hockey team last night and I don’t believe that’s true.
The Oilers may be sellers at the deadline, but many of the contracts the team will want to offload aren’t going to be attractive. Teams don’t have the dollars/cap to invest in Evander Kane or even Zach Hyman. In summer, deals could be made but that will involve trading draft picks. Speaking of, no damn way Holland can trade the first-round selection now. Not a chance. It might be Cale Makar.
If you are an Oilers fan who is hurting this morning, I want you to know there are good days ahead. What this start means is that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have no strong reason to stay for another contract. The tension on this season got tight in a hurry, the cable snapped and resulted in that sickening sound that only comes when dangerous things are in flight at high velocity.
The Edmonton Oilers are dead in the water this morning. The injuries (mentioned above), the ridiculous attention paid to the move to zone from man-to-man (if it is this hard you have the wrong people, people) and the absolute travesty that is being this bad with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, will buckle the entire enterprise.
I like loud noises. This loud noise will shake the foundation. This will mean pain for what has become a train in vain. Daryl Katz needs to build an organization, not hire a Pope.
At noon today, Sports 1440 will let loose the hounds of hell and give it voice. Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports, Tyler Yaremchuk from Daily Faceoff and Declan Krueger with Declanations will all chime in and I’ll have a rant at high noon. Good grief, Oilers. You can reach me in the comments section, @Lowetide on twitter, or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
This post enraged me into being positive about the team. Thank you LT.
This and Grant Fuhr not talking to the fans/media because “they’re jerks”. Let’s go expos.
Interesting stuff.
Connor Brown has lead boots. https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8477015
Ekholm is basically immobile. https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8475218
Bouch does have a bomb, but he’s slow. https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8480803
Maybe the tried Ekholm with Broberg because he can skate.
Hyman and Nuge can still skate.
Raise your hand if you knew Draisaitl was a faster skater than Foegele, Nuge, Kane, and Holloway.
https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20232024-regular-8477934
Fastest skater on the Oilers so far? Hyman!
Compare Connor Brown to his previous results.
https://edge.nhl.com/en/skater/20212022-regular-8477015
The dude has lost his NHL wheels. Waive him before he re-injures himself at game 20 and you end up with 3m+ dead cap next season.
Max Wanner with his first pro goal – yes, it was in to an empty net and, while tough to see, I swear the Tuscon player was the one that shot it the length of the ice.
Malone with a tack on empty netter.
Pederson just fell awkwardly on the back-check, stayed down for a while and limped to the bench.
Hamblin takes an outlet pass with speed in the neutral zone, goes in on a one on one – does this weird flip by the defender and scores a beauty.
Its listed unassisted right now but it was a clear tape to tape outlet pass from the side-boards by Lavoie.
Summarizing!
Stonehouse and Mazura each picked up an assist, the former with 4 SOG as well.
Määttä, Münzenberger, Lachance and Akey did not earn soup. They shall have to content themselves with a tin of Klik.
PP2 gets a shift of the next PP and Hoeffenmayer hits the post from the high slot. Gagner and Petrov are very good on PP2.
Was just coming in to post that Petrov was getting some PP2 time with Gagner and Savoie.
Savoie, down to Gagner on the goal line and a wicked cross-slot pass to an activating Hoeffenmayer who buries it.
A beauty!
lets gooo
Holloway, not found trigger
Brown.. seems slowed.. perhaps should have investigated injury more
Janmark, actually being a wonderful Janmark.. just not a first line right winger.
McLeod- at some point.. should emerge has being able to carry play and hold puck.. has not happened.
Kane.. actually Kane’s been good. He shouldn’t be expected to carry the team over 80 games.
Nurse- actually Nurse does not seem to be a very good defender? ?
Nuge- slowed? it’s been 13 years right.
Foegle.. great.
Hyman.. no space. been good just not finding time or space..
Also the cross seamer for the draisaitl one timer is absolutely studied by the opposition and did not work about 10 times last game. I think coach needs to do a bit more active coaching.
No unbeaten teams left as Vegas loses 4-3 in OT to Chicago.
The House of Stone procures an aPPle as Ottawa knots the score late in the first.
Timing and time remaining are critical factors in management during windows opportunity. A failure this year is clearly far worse than failing to make the playoffs in 2016. This team has time-sensitive assets, good enough assets to make last year’s SC winner look plain for games at a time.
2 years ago I harped on the idea of “keeping your powder dry” when I thought Tipp needed out. We have arrived back at the same situation. And there’s an immense opportunity cost to not making a decision. Perhaps Woody can right the ship or it’s time to cut him loose and find a mid-season fit. Either way, a type 1 error would look bad but so would a type 2 error. Fire the coach and not replacing him with a suitable replacement looks bad just like failing to fire the coach when there are suitable replacements.
Either way, they’re burning daylight on big UFA spends, assets that cost 1st round picks, and prime years of McLeon. Folding this hard this early would be atrocious.
I believe Woody isn’t the right coach for this club and he’s lost the faith of his dressing room. I think he was out-coached last year in both series with big non-adjustments mid-game costing the season.
If a change is needed, the longer you maintain this situation, the worse off Woody’s replacement will be. Mid-season coaching changes are tough on a team. Almost as tough as holding on to the wrong coach.
Correct.
Here’s a way to look at it.
Jay Woodcroft has coached 127 of Evan Bouchard’s 170 regular season games in the past three seasons. So a season and a half of work, which sees him with a 0.657 Pts/percentage and with three series wins (one more than Dallas…).
Tough crowd, tough crowd 😉
February 10, 2022 to present
Player: GA60, GA60 REL
Bouchard: 2.95, 0.48
Nurse: 2.69, 0.12
Barrie: 2.59, -0.34
Ceci: 2.40, 0.09
Kulak: 2.59, -0.04
All figures are skewed due to their PP. Bouche is so useful on one side of the puck. I think you’d struggle to make a case for strong defensive play, however. In todays NHL, you have to be able to hold water on your dzone coverage game. There’s definitely room for improvement.
(I love the player btw, I just don’t want to overstate his worth)
I don’t really buy they have no heart and are completely broken. I also have no idea what the hell is going on. This is basically the same team that’s had a good run for two years. I think a dominating win over the Flames on a big stage could turn this season around. But I also think a dominant win by the Flames could turn this year into chaos. I’m sure the Flames fans are asking the same questions we are. I’m not willing to bet either way.
I wonder if both teams had that date penciled as when the season actually starts.. and just failed to notice the first 7 games weren’t preseason.
Many are forgetting that the issues present right now didn’t start this season.
There were glimpses in the regular season and this team was utter garbage against Vegas.
A series loss that should have driven them has been responded to with a pathetic whimper.
I will also add – Tippett lost the plot when he decided they needed to clamp down to win instead of leaning into their offensive advantage.
Woodcroft has now bought into the “solve it through defence” idea.
It doesn’t work.
Oates vs. Trotz coaching WSH says you may be wrong.
And, as I alluded to earlier, I’m a fan of both.
Something that occurred to me, and this may be more influenced by the GM than the HC.
What is your take on the notion espoused by several around here that there is no such thing as a bottom six, or fourth line? Cassandra was on about that fairly early, bemoaning the different coloured practice jerseys. An interesting notion, that didn’t get a lot of traction at the time. Watching VGK finding success with more parity in skill between their lines makes it a more topical conversation lately.
When ManWood ascended, there was an emphasis on letting youth wheel. We saw strides from the rookies, which helped the team win games and form together.
Is part of what you’re suggesting that the team needs to ditch the grinders and veterans at the bottom of the order, in favour of skill players from BAK, then spread around the ice time more evenly?
There are many different ways to use a fourth line. You have to have a vision.
It could be talented offensive guys with glaring holes in their games.
It could be three vets who you know will never make basic mistakes and want to grind out one last win.
It could be the scariest players you can possibly find whose mission is seek and destroy.
For the Oilers, I seriously consider the third option contingent that they can all skate.
One thing you don’t do? Bring them back. You rotate year to year to take risks and save money.
7 forwards, 4 D, 1 goalie.
Everyone else is either new acquisitions or young and with a high ceiling.
With what they’ve got right now, a kid line is probably the best option. Not Derek Ryan and crew. If Ryan is Eric Staal…that might be different.
The option you’re describing might be closest to the first group I described. Having Tomas Tatar on your “fourth line” for instance…
And I’m barely joking when I say thing like having our man Markus play wing…opponents would be bruised and terrified for 5 minutes every night.
you are advocating the Oilers focus on O and let the defensive aspect be. Maybe I’m mistaken, but haven’t the Oilers been outclassed 5v5 for years?
I don’t believe “score more” is the solution.
The Oilers have a generational talent, as well as an absolute superstar, and can have a game plan of “score 5” and win more than enough games to finish first in the division.
The best defence is never being in your zone and/or facing a demoralized opponent. A robust scoring team also keeps scoring enough to win in the playoffs when it gets tougher to do so.
Yes, it seems that there are some statistical similarities. Like, a Vegas hangover.
From:
https://lowetide.ca/2023/10/23/is-this-the-real-life/#comment-1238390
Maybe this is interesting to you. EDM lost 2 games to 4 to VGK in round 2. Currently they have a 1-3-1 record. The pattern of shots and shot attempts to PDO in the 5 games this season is similar to those 6 playoff games. Why? Because Sh% + SV% is highly correlated with winning.
vs VGK 5v5
GP 6
GF60 2.01
GA60 3.35
SF60 27.72
SA60 30.18
SF% 52.12
Sh% 6.67
SV% 87.90
Sh% + SV% .946
2023-2024
GP 5
GF60 1.82
GA60 2.87
SF60 29.72
SA60 28.42
SF% 51.12
Sh% 6.14
SV% 89.91
Sh% + SV% .960
Train in vain. My favourite Clash song.
“All the times when we were close
I’ll remember these things the most
I see all my dreams come tumblin’ down
I can’t be happy without you around
So alone I keep the wolves at bay
And there’s only one thing I can say“
“(you didn’t) stand by me”
Now there’s a song for Jeffrey.
All our love’s in vain. We don’t see where we’re going to, we don’t want to.
(Tony Iommi says hi).
“Well, we all need someone we can lean on
And if you want it, you can lean on me
Yeah, we all need someone we can lean on
And if you want it, you can lean on me”
-The Glimmer Twins AKA Jagger/Richards
As I have said before, I didn’t invest my money too much into this team due to the lovely financial pinch we all are feeling these days.
There is a lot of talk about firing the coach and others saying we hired the wrong coach. That’s just the nature of coaching. The honeymoon period of the first day fades fast, and if you can make a short term change, the honeymoon will continue. However, a few losses here, a playoff fade there and next thing you know, you’re sitting at home wondering where it all went wrong. No one really can pinpoint the exact moment when things went South, but you have an inkling.
Coaching is funny. Just imagine you are given an award one day in front of all your peers, who agree that the award is well deserved. 6 months later, you’re out of a job after not being able to rally the ones you manage. That is the cruelty and reality of a coach. One minute you’re a genius and the next, a fool.
I’m not sure where this team is going to be in a week. Not the start we all had hoped for and it has thrown many fans into disarray.
To dig out one of my old tired coach cliches, the tough part is not where we’ve been but the exciting part is where we’re going!
One thing I always ask my players is what day is it? Those who know me will always answer, it’s a great day for hockey. I stole that line from Badger Bob Johnson and I truly believe it. I’ve forgot the excitement and joy I felt going into a rink as a coach until I got back behind the bench this season. I have a great group of young ladies (U-13), who have entrusted me to make them a better hockey player and hopefully, better people. So far, we’ve lost every game and not by a slim margin, and do we care? Not one iota. We play in a boys league and 1/3rd of our team has never played before, but the excitement of possibilities is still there and it keeps them coming to the rink.
I don’t see that with the Oilers right now. They look totally beat and defeated. The excitement just isn’t there right now. I’m hoping this weekend will ignite a spark and the excitement returns.
Go Oilers
Which is why I think they need an experienced forward thinking and motivated leader as coach. Not too many around but there’s a reason success follows them around
As in how the Habs have a limited experience coaching group that can still lead that team to play as well as is possible, even if they are too young and imbalanced to win a lot
I think like people who end up in a string of unsuccessful relationships, the Oilers keep finding the same coach in different packages. They need their modern day Sather
so derek ryan should be player-coach until end of season then retire and lead us to 5 championships?
Can we stop saying with such certainty that if so and so happens then Draisaitl or McDavid is staying or leaving. You are not their friend. You have no idea what they are thinking. You don’t know what’s important to them. It is arrogant to think that you do.
And even if you do predict it correct you have no idea if it was for the reasons you thought. You had a 50/50 chance of being right anyway
if Holland does NOT trade a member of the core to create a winning team then McDavid is out. If Holland does trade a member of the core to create a winning team then McDavid is also out.
Am I doing this right?
A set of mutually exclusive outcomes does not necessarily mean there’s an equal chance of one vs another. There is some information known and there are some assumptions one could make that are better than others.
Stay vs leave is almost certainly not 50/50. Money, taxes, fame, hometown, chances of winning – these all support leave. Could he be married to the idea of playing his whole career for one team? Sure. Has he ever stated that sentiment? No. Do young men like to spread their wings? Betting on that is a good bet. Are there unknowns? Sure. But there are knowns.
Proposing a scenario and supporting the claim isn’t inherently arrogant. It could be foolish but this community isn’t populated with ever-claiming buffoons. Even HH supports some of his claims.
C’mon
This team.. Has been a dysfunctional mess.. Way too often.. Way too long.. That burns out someone’s resolve, severely taxes one’s mental health.. If it continues, it’s easy to see why someone would want to get off at the next stop..
We don’t know what we don’t know but I’m fairly certain that Connor McDavid doesn’t think the org has been a dysfunctional mess and one could eve reasonably suggest that he’s had more of a say in many organizational decisions than almost any other player in the league (including player procurement and player retention and, now, senior management procurement).
So what happens if they turn it around and play some decent hockey? You guys talk about this team like it is so deeply flawed it could never happen.
Yet nobody was predicting this start. So I’m struggling to believe that these new predictions are more trustworthy.
We have 2 gods.
Most people are expecting decent hockey….not sure where you are going with this.
Who’s made big predictions? Lt makes a forecast and always lets us know his poor track record ahead of time.
Good point
Recency bias is a helluva drug
I suggest the org is not anywhere near firing the coach. It’s not even a discussion. They will be fully behind Woodcroft looking for solutions.
Hopefully Woody is willing to listen.
If this is where they are, they are wrong and will be very late if they’re ever right.
Tonight’s projected lineup:
Lavoie/Hamblin/Savoie
Gagner/Pederson/Bourgault
Maline/McKegg/Kambeitz
Petrov/Grubbe/DeJong
Dineen/Wanner
Gleason/Kemp
Niemo/Hoeffenmayer
Pickard
—————-
Would have liked to see Rodrigue get the net again after stopping 31 of 32 last game.
Griffith joining Caggiula and Tulio on the injured list – I forgot, he took a hit last game and didn’t return.
Opportunity knocks for Savoie!
Wouldn’t mind seeing a few of these players in the Oilers bottom 6.
how has Wanner been so far?
Tough to really asses tonight as its been a special teams battle – I think the Condors have like 6 or 7 PPs through 2.
Has LT actually thrown in the towel? Eighteen days after saying how excited he was to see a contender he’s now called it off and the whole shebang is over?
I want to rewind to Jan. 10 2023. Its my favorite piece from the segment of the fanbase who always and at every time is casting the doomiest of the doom.
https://theathletic.com/4076302/2023/01/10/oilers-trade-deadline/
At the time written the Oilers had endured two and were in the midst of a 3rd slump as bad as the one they were on now. The play had turned quite significantly when you looked at the fancies for about 2.5 weeks before but the hockey gods ensured everyone was a Vezina candidate while the Oilers would never score again. The BooBirds rained down from above. Man I wasn’t impressed with Hyman’s game against the Kings (or Stu’s) but that was probably the turning point game. The one that lit the fire for the barn burner to come.
Have a little patience. They might surprise us.
If only it were that simple.
The problem is falling significantly behind other teams in the WC.
While a significant winning streak can be useful, the team would also need multiple teams to fall on hard times…all at the same time which is virtually impossible since they are often playing each other.
Tonight, for example, all of Vegas, Vancouver and LA are favoured to win but they are also playing teams ahead of the Oilers in the standings…Chicago, St. Louis on a back to back and Arizona.
And, of course, the worst possible case is some 3 point games.
Elliotte Friedman reminding us on the radio this morning that any team 4 or more points out of playoff position on November 1st very rarely makes the playoffs.
November 1st is only 4 days away.
Argo fu$k yourself!
From the article above.
According to colleague Dom Luszczyszyn’s projections, the Oilers are most likely to finish fifth in the Pacific Division, so no better than the second wild card. At least there is no unassailable juggernaut like the Avalanche at the top of the Western Conference like last season, but a first-round matchup against Vegas or Dallas isn’t anyone’s idea of a desirable outcome. The Oilers would be lucky to get that opportunity at this point.
Rinse and repeat, rinse and repeat.
At the time that article was written, they had a winning percentage of .536.
They are currently at .214.
Yes and it was also 41 games into the season making the 11 and 9 point differentials they had with Vegas and LA a statistically tougher catch up than where they are now and with the time value of games left to play.
Alas they caught both, briefly for Vegas, and ended up five clear of LA, a 14 point swing in 41 games. Pretty neat eh?
Yes…neat but certainly not necessarily repeatable.
Vegas, LA and Vancouver are better teams than they were then.
Yes, but they actually finished second in the Pacific last season (not 5th) and this fall Dom Luszczyszyn’s models projected the highest probability of a cup win for the Oilers. Tells you a lot about score sheet models.
I think the Gods will drive us back into the playoffs.
Not sure a lot of people like to watch other teams play hockey.
With each game lost-we are sliding closer to some real panic moves by the org.
( worse than signing and playing Erne)
It actually is that simple though.
Every team (nearly) is ahead of the Oilers right now, and they’re behind. But they could still earn up to a maximum of 151 points if the Oilers won out to the end. Yes there will be losses. Yes there will be a lot of adversity, and 151 points is not even a realistic possibility.
But if the Oilers win out, they would still finish with an NHL best season.
Thats how early this season still is.
Yes the Oilers have to gain ground. 7 games worth of ground with nearly 10 times that number remaining.
Thank you for our daily dose of pessimism, but some people don’t like to tear down something that supposed a game we find hope, optimism and an escape from the frankly pessimist nature of every day life.
PS you forgot that one of those teams who made the playoffs after being on the outside looking in, was the 2019 Blues.
Friedman said teams 4 or more points out on Nov 1, make the playoffs 15% of the time since 2006. Good news for the Oilers since they’re only 2 points out.
They’re actually 5 points out
They failed in both the regular and post season last year. It was not a success.
I never said it was a success. I said we’ve heard the same sky is falling messages before about the regular season and I said it wasn’t time to panic about things that haven’t yet happened like them missing the playoffs this year and/or seeing McLeon walk after next.
Seems a tad premature is all.
Making logical, decisive moves when a fundamental flaw presents itself is not panic.
We have seen the flaw. Time to move.
What are your logical and decisive moves here? Fire the coach? The same well that they’ve gone back to over and over and over and over?
Sounds like a losers strategy to me. Maybe be a little patient in an 82 game season. Its about Peaking after all.
This is the window Woody’s lost the plot. Leon and Connor will be gone and the naive virgins will be muttering what happened.
From LT on the same day of the DNB article.
Rinse and repeat. Rinse and repeat.
https://lowetide.ca/2023/01/10/after-the-ordeal/
How bad is it? It’s bad. The coaching staff has tried everything but circled back to a bad solution. Jay Woodcroft is a smart man, he’s doing what he believes to be the best path forward. And you know, I like him, if it weren’t for the mountain of evidence against his current mindset, I might endorse it.
Diablo
Reply to jtblack
January 10, 2023 1:19 pm
The Oilers are not a playoff team – I’ve been saying this for over a month, and I stand by it. They just don’t have a good enough D corps to prevent goals at 5v5 and on the PK. The young guys like McLeod, Yamo, JP, Bouchard, Holloway … not a single one of these guys has taken a leap forward this year. The goaltending is mediocre and is not capable of stealing games.
Last season around this time, the D corps had sustained significant injuries, requiring the Oilers to suit up a bunch of AHL quality D-men. The really concerning part is that the D-corps has been pretty healthy, but the Oilers have gone through the same swoon that they did year.
The Oilers are lottery team … trading this year’s first round pick would be sheer folly. Like Florida trading their first this year for Chiarot at last year’s deadline bad, except that they won the President trophy last year when they made that deal.
WheatNOil
@WheatNOil
January 10th and the Oilers have basically no chance at a top 3 division spot. When accounting for games played, they’re 4th out of the 4 teams fighting for the two wild card spots.
They have no cap room & can’t run a 23 player roster if Kane is activated.
Just remarkable.
Love it, great work here.
My wife had an interesting comment last night. she said, every time the Oilers get a new coach they play better, but after a year or two they revert back to lousy play.
Too me, that sounds like a core player problem, which would be McDavid, Drai, Nuge and Nurse. Maybe it’s time to admit it’s these players that are the problem and not the coaches and managers.
— Woodguy
@JasonGregor
Too many non-descript players on the Oilers right now. What intangible do they bring that will help contribute to wins?
They need to find one. ASAP.
——————
A reminder that the Oilers bottom 6 has yet to record a single point this season,
Thanks, I had forgotten!
They don’t get any ice time or power play time. Vegas uses everybody. Woodcroft not so much. If you are not using a player, why is he on the team?
There’s such a thing as skill without will. There’s a common denominator with this team and replacing the coaches and GMs hasn’t worked.
Right…. so your solution is to improving the team is to… trade McDavid?
Sorry, no chance.
Adam Erne and 7D….those are decisions made by GM’s and coaches.
Coaches have a far greater effect on a team than is ever given credit. Everyone including us looks at the players to attribute successes and failures. Most of the discussion on here is about the roster.
On paper, the Oilers are really good. This is a near championship roster with minor weakness on D, mostly because of one young man who is struggling right now. G is average. A good roster can’t overcome a poor coach. Is Woody bad? I don’t think we have enough track to know, but we can certainly say he is not above average, especially after the playoffs last year.
This is not that surprising. Coaching is a very complex job that takes years to hone the skills and savvy required to do it well. That’s why old experienced coaches are more sought after than young, new coaches…unless you are the Edmonton Oilers.
What is a good coach worth? Way more than they get paid due to this outsized effect on team performance. We focus on trying to get this $5 million dollar forward or that $4 million dollar defender to put us over the top when a good coach is worth more than both players combined and then some.
Look at mediocre rosters that excelled behind a guy like Jacques Lemaire or modestly above average rosters that were perennial contenders/champions under Scotty Bowman.
Hiring another rookie behind the bench was a fatal move for this deep roster in its prime. Shame, shame, shame on you Holland. What a waste of talent.
If the Oilers miss the playoffs this season the GM would have to think long and hard about trading Drai.
An early season surprise.
The LAK are the highest scoring team in the league at 4.5 G/GP.
BUT…
Their highest scoring player is Kevin Fiala with 1G 9P
3 LW Trevor Moore is their top goal scorer with 5.
In fact, their bottom 6 has scored 13 goals and 25 points.
Depth and balance.
Great for them. The 20 game mark is when teams settle and the real deal emerges, but they have a decent team
Yeah…you have to think the bottom 6 will cool off but that could be ameliorated by players like Fiala and Kempe catching fire.
They only have 3 goals between them.
Seriously duck off already. I’m tired of you and your constant agitation.
Don’t feed the trolls… I used to make the same mistake with him, even erring on the side of second chances, but to use an old statistics quote he is a drunkard’s walk.. he uses this blog more for support than illumination.
Lots of very good comments again today. I was thinking this morning Holland has developed a roster like a sitcom where each character is an aspect of a whole personality, but not the whole thing
There are a few rounded players, a lot of players good at one thing (hopefully), but not everything. And of the few rounded players some have injuries or are recovering
Holland is not a strong trader. He can acquire players, but only if it’s pretty straightforward and he has assets to burn. He also seems to target certain players, they aren’t at a point where the analytics guys can help him find the right fits and he goes out and makes something happen
The cap is a mountain too high to deal with, it is highly unlikely he could pull off a blockbuster kind of thing to better balance the roster, especially the D and it’s very weak right side
It all may work out, we might get surprised by some high level action, but likely Woody and Co are the fall guys. My hope is any new coach gets the year so the next GM has an easier job next summer. And please let that guy not be the zero experience Mr. Coffey. Enough – no rookies and no Detroit/Hockey Canada people they know
What time Sunday does that sneaky Woody fellow release his starting line-up with Connor on it? I’ll say noonish.
I’m looking forward to Adam Erne being on waivers but, at the same time, the Condors are more fun to watch than the Oilers right now so maybe I don’t want this……
NOPE!
I’m just gonna say it because Marc Spector’s already thinking it:
This is all Michael Parkatti’s fault.
Yup. Keep Erne up and fire Parkatti. a so very Oilers thing to do.
In keeping with my goal of being Less Mad at Sports, and in light of all the teams I cheer for sucking, I am checking out from the Oilers until January. Let me know if anything cool happens before then ✌
Sorry Durag you cannot leave us alone like that.
We need your humour around here even more now.
The strange thing about the Oilers transition to zone is that they till don’t collapse into the slot (becaue the forwards are still lolly-gagging back).
Which is the critical first step to the success of a zone. The forwards have to get back so one can collapse into the slot, and take away slot shots and cross ice passes.
The forwards have to track back even harder when playing a zone defense, and they just aren’t doing that.
The defensemen are being confused because the zone never gets set up properly before the D have to start dealing with the onslaught of opposition forwards.
Ah, I had wondered if the wingers were still lolly-gagging and looking for the home run pass. This tracks.
The Oilers may be sellers at the deadline, but many of the contracts the team will want to offload aren’t going to be attractive.
Contract year Warren Foegele!
Connor Brown would have interest and maybe some real trade value if he does find his game mid-season. League min cap hit (and the bonus would vest to the Oilers and not be an issue for the acquiring team).
Curious…does the whole bonus vest to the Oilers or is it proportional to games played?
If he’s on the Oilers when he plays his tenth game, it vests to the Oilers completely, as far as I know.
They need to bury him in the minors after game 9.
Oilers need to be way more aggressive defending their own blueline. Passive in-zone defence may have some benefits (like reducing high-danger chances against) but passive transition defence does you no good. When Woodcroft first took over it seemed like the team became more aggressive defending the line and they were successful. What happened?
Wow, I don’t think I have ever heard this kind of verbal from Lowetide before.
I still believe this team has too much talent to finish below two of LA, Seattle, and Calgary. It’s how you finish, not how you start. The 2019 Blues were last in the league at Christmas and won the Cup.
Give the zone D a few more games. Playoff hockey is a different beast and now is the time to prepare for it. After a few more games, if it’s still a tire fire, switch back to man.
But don’t blow this whole thing up. Goodness, in the back half of last season, this was the best team in the NHL. Patience is a virtue.
Blowing up this team right now would be a bit like trading Miro Satan.
Blues made an in season coaching change
The Oilers, of course, cannot make an in-season coaching change, and therefore the team is doomed…. /s
Many of us feel that the coach is the problem, and that the right hand can steady the ship back into calmer waters. Hopefully they don’t wait until we hit the iceberg.
I actually have not come across very many saying the season is doomed.
Oilers have some real problems. Talking strengths, weaknesses, improvements is fair game. Crapping on the players just cause is poor form.
Really? Cause the last time I looked effort is highly desirable and completely in the control of the individual. I am sorry, but other than a very very small number of players I am seeing jack shit for effort.
Roger
then say jack shit for effort. Not you are jack shit. That’s where I was going.
If you don’t appreciate being crapped on … don’t play like crap. You know who’s really being crapped on? All the season ticket holders that have paid to watch this crap show.
Wow. I hope some humanity finds you today….
They can pull out of this, but it has to happen fast. IF Jay goes doesn’t get a W in the next 3 games, I think he will be gone. Not sure if he has lost the team yet, but is seems close.
He or the next guy needs to enforce accountability. Guys are getting away with too much slop and apathy. Moving players up and down or to bake or to the press box is challenged by the cap pain they have put themselves in.
cap pain is Holland & Chirelli’s fault, unfortunate that its Woody’s problem now. Not sure who can save the season seeing that Craig Berube isn’t available. I am thinking, in my limited inner circle coaching knowledge of the NHL, that only Gallant or Trotz can save this season.
“cap pain is Holland & Chirelli’s fault,”
Why is it that players who negotiate/demand their salaries always seem to get off scott-free in these discussions? Players will play for the maximum they can get. If it’s not here, it’ll be somewhere else. It is the PLAYER & AGENT who usually hold all the cards. Then it is the GM who takes ALL the heat when things go south, as they often do. And if a GM draws a line in the sand (re: Kevin Lowe & Ryan Smyth) he takes all the heat in that situation also.
Cap hell and buyouts are starting to hurt the entire league, resulting in good players with life still in them (who can actually put fans in the seats) having to to retire early or be bought out so a minimum wage rookie can help balance the books. When young ‘uns underperform . . . well, GM catches hell for that also.
It won’t happen, but I like to see a system where a negotiated contract is tied to arbitrated performance projections. A player who goes above the projections by a certain percentage recieves bonus money (League wide standard, not counting against the cap.) A player drops below projection by a certain percentage and his contract can be nullified or re-negotiated, team option. No more lengthy buyouts on the books.
Right now there are dozens of players making millions of dollars to sit at home, meanwhile I’m paying $15 for a beer at the game (when I can afford to go.)
Rant over.
EDIT: I see several obvious flaws in my contract system, but y’all get the point.
Because there’s always the choice to walk away?
If Holland had walked away from Nurse, there is $9.25 Million to work with. That could be two lesser D-men for that price, or another D that might be stronger than Nurse, or could be worse.
Just because a player negotiates his price, doesn’t mean the GM is beholden to accept. If Derek Ryan walked into negotiations last year and asked for $6 Million, we would walk away and find a player to fit his role at a better price.
The question becomes, were there better options than Nurse at his price point? Nuge? Hyman? Kane? Answers may vary, but thats the question.
GM’s get the heat when they make stupid decisions. Lowe letting Smyth go over $200,000 is an example of that. Smyth was worth the VERY slight overpay and continued to have productive seasons for a while yet before he retired. Lowe justifiably gets the blame, because he could have signed, but chose to walk away.
Is there a choice? Do you really think Holland would have survived here letting Nurse walk, and then having him sign somewhere else (most likely) at a reduced rate?
Someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but didn’t Lowe and Smyth have an agreed upon contract, and at the very last minute Smyth’s agent jacked the price up a couple hundred thousand $? This gave Kevin Lowe mere minutes to accept or reject. I don’t blame Lowe one bit. Isn’t this why Smyth was caught off-guard by the trade?
You use Derek Ryan as an example. But what if Draisaitl wants to be the highest paid player in the league next summer. Let him walk?
Okay, but then he made the astute choice to sign Nurse did he not?
Nurse DEFINITELY would not have signed at a reduced rate. Tell me the last time a top pairing D-man entered free agency at 27 and took a paycut? He was paid in full, but Nurse would have earned that and maybe more on the open market that year.
If Drai wants to make $15M next year, then you have two options. Let him walk, or sign him. Can you replace Draisaitl with $15M? Maybe, I say no and I would sign him.
Its opportunity cost. By signing Drai to that contract, you eliminate that cap from the rest of the roster, and Drai needs to play to a certain level to perform to that contract. Maybe signing 2 players around the Nuge/Zibenajad level would work, but I don’t think so.
But what you’re asking is that the players should accept a smaller piece of the pie, and when they don’t, its their fault and the GM’s shouldn’t be held accountable because they’re victims of the greedy players. But nobody was complaining that Nurse was underpaid as an RFA….
I’m not saying the players should accept a smaller piece of the pie. I’m only asking that they accept a larger piece of the risk.
Holland has made some questionable moves but underlying those decisions are the failures of our high draft picks on the wings.
If any of Yamo, Puljujarvi or Holloway had risen to top 6 calibre, we wouldn’t have a Kane and Brown situation. Same with McLeod.
Obviously, there is time for Holloway and McLeod to find some offence but these picks have a direct link to the current state.
The inability to draft a single impact player outside the first round is a massive fail.
I agree. The Oilers have had too many draft picks flop, including first rounders. Even if they haven’t busted, they have been underwhelming compared to other players who were still on the board. Which is presumably why Tyler Wright is gone.
Winning cures all.
I refuse to panic in the first 10 games of the NHL season, teams start hot and fade. They’ve still got 3 more games to 10. Get a win, build some confidence and practice. They have a 4 day break after the heritage classic, good time to reset and McDavid is likely back after that.
I would be more worried if they were 1-5-1 and looked lazy and disinterested.
They’re 1-5-1 and look confused and frustrated. They aren’t mailing it in out there, they have been playing a structure that isn’t working.
The entire verbal in the offseason was that the difference between Oilers ’23 and Oilers Cup champs was team defense from 97 down and that they couldn’t beat VGK playing man to man. But they aren’t going to flush the season by forcing a system that clearly isn’t working, they must have a window to see it through until they can’t push it any more and they go back to what worked. Is it 10 games? They probably have their eye on the rest of the Pacific too.
The question should be why this isn’t ironed out already, Woody needs to be accountable to a terrible camp, in retrospect. If its not working by a certain point they need a plan to come back to their game.
I found the Coffey and Huddy interview in the 1st intermission telling. Usually Coffey speaks way looser he was speaking like the next G.M all business. Holland has run out of Ideas except bringing in broken down vets which is fine for a playoff run not so much for a 82 game marathon. Holland must be reined in by Jackson before he goes back to his real team in Detroit.
No trading the 1st for a old slow vet he’s already leaving Coffey in a 3 million dollar hole for Brown.
Not yet, still time to run Brown out of town and save the ‘bonus’ money. Will Holland do it? Will 97 allow this to happen? What does Jeff want done? We may never know the answers these questions.
Connor Brown (through 7 games at EV)
The analytical numbers show well (with exception of PDO). However, 1 shot per game is not going to get it done. Assuming a Shooting Percentage of 10%, at this rate Brown will contribute 1 goal per 10 game segment – or 8 goals for the season.
I would suggest if Brown does not have some success in the next two games then he should be cut lose.
I thought Brown would fit right in score his 22 plus goals and land himself a nice contract next year somewhere. Instead they slow played him in training camp and through the 1st seven games. He’s playing cautiously like he doesn’t trust his knee and he’s trying to nurse it to game 10 for the moneyball. Brown needs to play like buzzsaw to be effective so far it’s not happening.
Which is why the GM, the coaches and many of the players said that it would take Brown time to get his prime game back, and that was acknowledged by the fans.
Time is a couple of months, not a couple of games.
If we’re 5-1-1 instead of 1-5-1 it’s a different story every negative becomes magnified and rightfully so.
This honestly should be Jay’s time to shine as an ex-video coach. I don’t believe the narratives around not trying hard enough. This is simple tactics which should be his strength.
Dial up Lafreniere goal vs Oilers Oct 26, 2023 on Youtube. Go head, I’ll wait. So let’s work through this.
Jay has said it’s not the in-zone defense, other than the Minnesota game. That’s actually backed up by some cool stuff Cult of Hockey is doing based on Cam Charron’s work. They’ve categorized goals/scoring chances based on four different situations; faceoff, forecheck, cycle and rush.
In the first three situations the Oilers are decent-to-fine. Maybe not indicative of a top team but when you factor in learning a new system for three of the main situational categories I’d lump together as “blueline in” breaking even isn’t so bad.
Where they are getting eviscerated to the tune of 13-4 is in goals of rush chances. That has nothing to do with zone defense. So again, I want you to watch the Lafreniere goal.
It’s technically a rush chance but to be clear, it’s a slow moving 3-on-4. A very basic centre-drive, kick out to the wall play.
It looks to me like Nurse and Kulak switch into a Zone far too early. Nurse should defend the blueline aggressively. If he has to give the blueline he should then be aggressively closing out on Panarin soon after. Nuge takes the centre drive leaving Kulak to handle the Lafreniere lane. Hyman has coverage for F4/F5.
So Jay is right that it’s not in-zone breakdowns but where the issue seems to be is the team not knowing when to defend in man (off the rush) and when to slip into zone.
Good stuff.
A tip o’ the hat.
What I saw in that goal was Laf setup right in the seam of the Oilers box. The Rangers were looking for that, and the oilers were all puck watching as the puck sails through the box for a clean one timer.
Maybe want Skinner to have that one but shouldn’t the plus 1 there somehow be disrupting that play.
LHD Nurse and LHD Kulak you say…..
I really appreciate this post, detailing why and how the zone isn’t working.
When they were rolling last year they had layers of support moving back and with the puck at both blue lines there was a man on the puck carrier or there for an option on offense. It created a dynamite transition game, exploited with their passing and speed. This new system seems to limit this entirely.
Great work here. A question.
You say it’s not the zone, but then you go on to say essential that Nurse and Kulak sag (they don’t stand up to the play like d-men are taught to maintain the gap) and switch too early to a zone.
Isn’t that saying it is the zone?
I’m saying that at some point every team switches from rush defense which is more Man, to half court defense which is now zone. I think a play like this highlights that where they may be struggling is deciding when it’s time to switch into their zone.
If Nurse plays Panarin hard there and Kulak gaps-up on Lafy and Nuge does exactly what he does that’s a literal nothing play.
Kris Russell used to give up the blue line that easily and we skewered him for it. Why are our two longest and fastest defense giving 15 foot gaps?
I think worrying about 97 & 29 wanting to leave is kinda pointless.
To me, it’s more an exercise of whether or not we can afford them. Chiarelli, bless his heart, gave us an incredible Draisaitl contract (and Klefbom, miss you badly Dreamy).
Say the cap rises to $90m by the time Drai’s contract is up.
You have Nurse, Nuge, Hyman and Kane making $25m combined.
You have to think McDavid and Drai, even on a home team discount, would be making $25m combined. Depends on how much of a cut rate they’ll take. Matthews’ current hit is $11.6m, Drai would be fully justified in asking for McDavid’s current hit at $12.5m if not more. McDavid, well he’s worth $20m, would he take $15-16m?
Even at $25m combined, that’s leaving $40m for the rest of the roster.
Nobody wants Nurse at $9.25m for another 6 years.
If you think Draisaitl will be asking for $15m, can you fit that in? The NHL is not like the NBA, you can’t win with just superstars alone.
So if you won’t be able to sign him, you want to trade him before he walks on a free.
Would be hard to trade him in season, that’s a huge deal, and you don’t want to make out like the Bruins trading Thornton. So maybe you wait until next season. Then you have to decide, how much more do you get for him with essentially 2 full seasons now at $8.5m versus one season next year?
I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
I have been very lonely in my displeasure with playing 7 D for some time.
Last night we saw mixed bag pairings. Odd number will do that.
One such pairing even featured Nurse with Kulak.
How did the coaches think that would go?
How does mixed bag pairings help with steady, consistent, defensive hockey?
First it was Cam York. Now maybe Braden Schneider.
We are certainly not there yet. But, I think we are pretty close to making a call on Philip Broberg.
I am sorry, I don’t see elite skating. I see a sub par shot. Sub par D physical game.
I am genuinely curious what Broberg fans consider to be the elite part of his game.
Just not seeing much there.
Woodcroft has never played Broberg. This sub-ten minutes BS is not how to transition a defenseman. He is coming off the bench cold all the time. It is impossible to build confidence and momemtum.
Ditto with Holloway. One has to play him. He has been between 10-13 minutes all the time. That is nuts for the time of player Holloway is. This was a guy who figured out college hockey in half a season because the coach played him.
How did Keenan fix perpetual failure Oli Jokinen. He played him, and keep throwing him out there until he made it or humiliated himself.
Woodcroft is NOT giving Holloway or Broberg a chance the way he is deploying them. It is effing stupid what Woodcroft is doing.
Holloway and Broberg are not even bad relative to the rest of the team based on what they are doing. They deserve more time just based on merit.
Both are guys you just have to play, and their abilities wil come to the fore as they figure it out.
I can see elements of a spark with Holloway. Extreme speed with tenacious forecheck. Lack of finish is certainly coming into view there, however.
Broberg fans never really have a response when asked what part of the game he excels at or why he should be beating out a guy named ‘Vinny’.
Fully admit Broberg is decent player. But his game as a whole seems very vanilla.
Very similar denials reminds me of the Tyler Benson defences….
( Broberg is a way better player)
My hope lies in the fact that it’s still early. Late October 2011, the Oilers were tied for the lead of the Conference and second in the league….we then drafted 1st overall.
Blasphemer you are speaking delusional lies. What we see now is what we get forever. This team cannot change because that would render my current rage impotent.
Watching the game last night you got the feeling that Oilers will not win any game in the near future. They seemed so out of sync and never seemed to be close to scoring (to be honest I only watched the 2nd period action). On the D side, they always seemed outmanned in a whack-a-mole sort of way. Do we have even one dependable D pairing? Not sure if it is the new system or their confidence level but at best Nurse & Ekholm look 2nd pairing, Ceci and Kulak 3rd pairing and Bouchard, Broberg and Des look 7D or worse.
The players seem lost / overthinking which makes them slower than they are. There is no chemistry on any line except maybe the 3rd which has players with hands of stone…
The Vegas series and the comments following that seems to have impacted Woody to a point where he seems to in an analysis paralysis mode – similar to how we (believe) we are in Calgary goalie’s head after our victory over them in the playoffs a couple of years ago.
I don’t see how doing more of the same (as per Woody), we can come out of this funk. I think it’ll take a fresh voice with a newer system (no major changes – just tweaking like Woody did when he came from the farm). Gallant or Quenville might be the best suited to make the transition. Wish we could send Woodcroft to the AHL to get his mojo back.
It is a good time for the new hires – Jackson and the Analytics guy to earn their money.
We should waive Brown. I don’t think he’ll get claimed based on his current play and the cap impacts for next season. And if we lose him, would that matter, anyway since he is invisible as it is.
I’m wondering if Holland has already approached Leon with the question of resigning. If he gave an emphatic “no” then the next question might be”would you like to be traded”.
Then rinse and repeat with 97. How the mind wanders during a crisis.
Ha, great minds/fools
Janmark paying on the first line says something very disturbing about our depth. Although I think halloway is the much better choice, it’s not like he’s a legit top six forward. Brown was brought in to bolster our depth. That Janmark legit plays ahead of him is a huge issue.
Having said all this, the team is better than its record and it will get better. But the illusion of a cup contender has likely been revealed here.
I believe Woody was trying to find a 2nd and 3rd line. Janmark is there until McDavid is back. They have shuffled lines so much this year, that building some chemistry for the 2nd and 3rd line is key.
And Brown on the 3rd line is great with two kids in McLeod and Holloway.
The issue is they should have waived Erne and brought up Lavoie to play in that spot for a few games until McDavid came back.
“It might be Cale Makar.” in seven years. I do not care about seven years from now.
“What this start means is that Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have no strong reason to stay for another contract. ” If they can’t get it done here, why do they think it will be easier elsewhere? It’s on them to show up and neither of them have since the start of the season. They talk the talk and forget to walk the walk. They are supposed to be leaders and I do not see much leadership coming from them. When Mark Messier makes a promise, he backs it up. These two seem to just saying it makes it happen. It doesn’t. They need to take control here.
Oh, and if we do not see line up changes immediately, they are going no where. I hope we can all agree that burning $3M on Brown just because he’s McD’s buddy is stupid. McD should be able to see this. And Adam Erne? Fire that BOS into the sun.
Would you like a boat or a mystery box? Anything could be in the mystery box, it could even be a boat!
What is BOS?
bag of!
I get your point re: draft picks but I think LT was specifically mentioning Makar because:
I get that this is a rarity, but agree with LT on not spending the pick at this juncture on a quick fix that will lead to nowhere
Positive from last night: Very good recovery game from Bouchard, in my opinion.
I also thought Skinner had a strong game, even with the goals allowed.
Very solid game from Bouchard
There are no positives. 1-5-1 is 1-5-1 send the team to Houston this is useless, what good is Bouchard playing to his skillset for a mere 75 more regular season games?
Well I for one am not ready to abandon hope. There are always positives, if you look for them.
That was sarcasm. Gotta get better at this.
Try using <sarcasmon> and <sarcasmoff> like we did in the olden days a couple of years ago… 😉
I have said it many times, go ahead, change out the coach, the keepers still suck, we still have a #3 D making $9.5 M per, we still have an abysmal bottom six, we are still pissing away 2 of the best talents in the past 20 years, there is no Cup coming, look at he depth in Vegas … you don’t win in this league without depth.
Yes indeed, Katz needs to build an organization, he is clearly not capable/willing to do that. Holland was never the right man but they may as well cut their losses now and get a new man willing to build a foundation.
If you are Leon and Connor do you sign on for 8 more years of this SHIT SHOW???
Seriously do they sign on for more pain and piss away the remainder of their Brilliance?? Hard to hear I know, but this is the reality… refute me
Nurse a number 3 defenceman is being generous. Giving him 9.5 mil a season beyond being generous. How about when Connor and Leon are up for new deals they take discounts and have Darnell make up the difference?😉
Nurse is a good defenseman.
When I raged against the Nurse signing on the day of the signing, almost everyone here reassured me that signing Nurse was necessary in order to re-sign McDrai. Now people are saying that the Nurse cap space will prevent us from re-signing McDrai. So which is it?
We all like to shit on Katz, but the reality is he has approved spending to the cap EVERY YEAR. And we should thank our lucky stars he’s not one of those “meddling owners” who prevent the GM they hire from making deals they think will better the club. The only instance we can all confirm that he actually deferred from a GMs decision, was drafting Yakupov. (Which In the end, didn’t matter, as it turned out to be one of the worst drafts ever)
Holland on the other hand, has definitely botched some signings/trades. (They can’t all have horseshoes up their asses like Joe Sakic did.)
The Nurse contract is not ideal, but two other GMs who signed bloated contracts to comparable d-man only days before, unfortunately set(skewed) the market prices. His hand was forced. If you wanna blame someone for the eventual overpayment, blame Charelli for that god-awful Koskinen contract, which ate up too much cap space, forcing them to bridge Nurse and prevent a long-term contract that they should have signed.
Katz has done much more financially than just spend to the cap (and over the cap).
He’s took on about $12MM in extra real cash on the Lucic/Neal deal
He’s buried numerous NHL deals in the minors.
He’s given very high salary AHL contracts.
He’s given 2-way deals with very high AHL salaries and guarantee min comp.
He’s signed off on the firing of managers and multiple coaches (so having to pay multiple coaches/managers at the same time)
Etc.