Trust, but Verify

by lowetideedm

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Lenny

Ziyat Pagin was supposed to be our Chara

dunterpunter

Watched him at a preseason game at the saddledome. Dude was huge.

€√¥£€^$

John Marino set the precendence in E-Town. The Harvard grad was drafted by Chiarelli, who had cultivated a relationship with the player, but did not sign with Holland due to his Eastern seaboard preference, apparently.

Following this debacle, the Oilers were able to sign Phil Kemp and Michael Kesselring, New Englanders, just like Marino. Of note, Marino was a teammate of Adam Fox while at Harvard. The year before they graduated, Fox’s rights were traded to Carolina. This undoubtedly had some influence on the situation.

I looked into this more and I was only able to find 9 instances of this happening. Edmonton was on the receiving end twice, although Schultz is Canadian.

The players I was able to find are as follows:

Blake Wheeler 2008
Justin Schultz 2012
Kevin Hayes 2014
Jimmy Vessey 2016
Alex Keefoot 2017
Will Butcher 2017
Adam Fox 2019
John Marino 2019
Cutter Gauthier 2024
Isaac Howard 2025

Can anyone think of any other similar situations? Are we, as Oiler fans, feeling so disadvantaged/disrespected, given the seemingly universally perceived undesirable geopolitical location and history of slights against the organization that this isn’t a real threat (until we collectively manifest it)?

Bowman, has seemingly cultivated a relationship with Fischer (like Chiarelli, he has a type). So perhaps this is not true…

Fibonacci

Players (and their agents) have been much more militant about choosing development paths that allow them to hit pay dirt as early as possible.

Gone are the days when teams completely dictate the path of players.

One good example how that situation can impact a players life is that of Evan Bouchard,

At every step of the way, he has fallen further and further behind in career earnings and has foregone tens of millions.

Bouchard and Rasmus Dahlin were both drafted in 2018 but there is a stark difference in career earnings.

Bouchard made league minimum for 4 seasons before signing a 2 year deal at $3.9 million and then his current 4 year deal at $10.5 million.

Meanwhile Dahlin only spent 3 seasons on his ELC before signing a 3 year deal at $6 million followed by 8 years at $11 million.

Another player from that draft is Quinn Hughes who, because he had a much more direct development path, signed for 6 years at $7.85 million but next season will likely surpass $20 million while Bouchard makes half that for another 2 seasons.

Agents are paying very close attention to this now.

Fibonacci

There is a trend for American players wanting to play in the U.S. and current geopolitical events may accelerate that.

As the NCAA increasingly usurps the CHL as the prime development league and, in many ways is also diluting the talent pool in the AHL, more and more players will opt to take the Paul Fischer/John Marino route.

Fibonacci

Well…the Oilers are already the most “Canadian” team in the league.

The only American players on the active roster are Frederic, Howard, Murphy and Shea.

2 Germans
1 Swede
1 Finn
2 Russians

Of those, only Draisaitl was drafted by the team.

dunterpunter

Believe this topic popped up weeks ago, but Bakersfield has to have an impact for prospects.

They need to get their farm team closer.

€√¥£€^$

The following Americans are also signed to NHL contracts with the Oilers:

Emberson
Howard
Stastney

Regula
Hutson
Jones
Michaels
Carfagna
Stefan

€√¥£€^$

What is the Paul Fischer route?

Fibonacci

Play 4 seasons in the NCAA and then become a UFA.

And, as more and more Canadian players opt to play in the NCAA post draft, they may opt to do the same.

In the 2026 first round, 19 drafted players were committed to NCAA teams including 13 Canadians.

Some might make the NHL out of camp but most won’t and will have options if they don’t want to start their careers in the AHL.

OriginalPouzar

In the comments section yesterday, there was discussion about signing Russian winger Maxim Berezkin and US college defenseman Paul Fischer. Some believe both will sign, and that would be a good day. However, history suggests that may not happen. Please read this.

i believe this is, at least partially, directed at me and neither is an accurate representation of my opinion nor how I presented it.

With Berezkin, I posted straight up I think it’s unlikely he ever signs with the Oilers. I was simply adding that we just have no idea what is in his head and what might be in 1, 3 or 5 years and the Oilers hold his rights indefinitely. He has been quoted as saying his dream is to play in the NHL and he can only do that through the Oilers, either by signing at some point or being traded. Him playing well in the KHL may be irrelevant or it may be good – it’s not bad and I will continue to follow his progress and he has had a great start.

On Paul Fischer, I expressly acknowledged when the Oilers would lost his rights (next August) but simply pointed out the very relevant CBA information. Whether he signs with the Oilers at the end of this season in March or waits until he’s a UFA in August, he will have to sign a 2-year ELC. If he signs with the Oilers in March he’ll burn the first year of that ELC and will effectively have one year to RFA not two. I imagine that (and getting two signing bonuses within a few months) could be a factor in his decision. It’s far from a lock they’ll get him signed but I believe the above will be information provided to the player by his Agent (and the Oilers).

OriginalPouzar

I think I was the only one that didn’t think “the door was closed on Berezkin”, so I’m not sure who else “some think both will sign” is directed at.

I wanted to clarify my position on both these players and potential Oilers signing given the statement in today’s blog.

Pig Town Low

A man shouldn’t walk into another man’s home and act like he owns the place. Common decency.

OriginalPouzar

I’m not even sure what this means.

The homeowner made a statement towards me and I clarified my position on the substance in the comments section.

I was not disrespecting anything but engaging in discussion on the substance of the blog in the comments section thereof.

LateNightOilFan

I don’t follow any of the other leagues or the players in them, whether they are Oilers property or not, so I always appreciate the insight and discussion from those who do follow them, which includes LT and many other commenters on his blog. With that said, when discussion turns into debate about who said what, and when points are posted in a defensive manner, I tend to appreciate it less, because it’s no longer insight and discussion, it’s a competition.

dunterpunter

My personal favorite is when someone posts an item and OP leads with a response “I already posted about this below”. Overruns the blog unfortunately. Quality does not equal quantity.

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