I wrote about Atro Leppanen recently, saying “from a pure entertainment point of view, Leppänen is a blast for fans to observe. He can pass, shoot, skate and make plays at a high level. Bakersfield fans enjoyed some electric offence from Leppänen a year ago, and there’s more to come this fall. Unless injuries hit in a big way, his NHL aspirations will land shy. At least in Edmonton.” Please read this.
My friend Jouni Nieminen (Finnish sports journalist based in Edmonton) tweeted me yesterday, saying “Nobody is talking about Atro this year. Just like nobody talked about him in Finland before, either. And look what he did. Hope he gets a chance this year. He has a very particular set of skills, as Liam Neeson would say. He didnt really become a fulltime pro until about three years ago, and he is 27 now. The Natural!”
So, lets look at the Finnish flash and see what we can find in the numbers. He started poorly at even strength in Bakersfield, with early partner Cam Dineen. Things got better when Leppanen played alongside rookie Beau Akey (I’m completely convinced the Oilers have no idea what Akey can do) and landed in a good spot by the end of the year.
Here are Bakersfiield’s primary defenders in 2025-26, with their numbers. Remember, Leppanen started 10-20 (33 percent) in the first quarter of the season at even strength.
After the poor start in the first 17 games (10-20 goals), Leppanen’s final 36 games saw him deliver 29-24 goals (55 percent). He also lead Condors blue in goals, assists, points, even strength goals, assists, points, power play goals, assists, points. His five power-play goals ranked second in the AHL among defensemen.
As I mentioned in The Athletic article, Leppanen is blocked by the Oilers depth chart on left defense. Can he find a way? Well, Craig MacTavish was a coach (as is Mike Babcock) who adhered to the defensive side of the game, but he used Marc-Andre Bergeron despite pure chaos and Leppanen’s work was quite responsible after the early wobble. Leppanen also played well in preseason for the Oilers.
I can’t see Leppanen getting past Mattias Ekholm, Jake Walman, Ryan Shea, Shakir Mukhamadullin and Damien Carfagna, but my opinion on this doesn’t matter. Babcock may like what he brings. Leppanen is a unique player, and that always has value.
What’s the optimal plan for emerging Oilers winger Ike Howard in 2026-27?
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7568039/2026/09/06/oilers-winger-ike-howard-2026/
It doesn’t take long for the prospect landscape to change when they are being regularly shipped out. Bowman’s strength, IMO, is to get value-added thrown-ins on trades. I don’t recall other Oiler GMs doing this.
Not very long ago the RD depth chart had plenty of depth and what appeared to be multiple promising prospects in the position. Today the lone occupant of the RD prospect depth spot is 21 year old Beau Akey (with 26 year old Regula & 32 year old Brown higher up the depth chart, but that is it).
Meanwhile, the leftorium organizational depth is alive and thriving with the following pecking order (and 28 year old Stillman in the mix):
1- Mukhamadullin, 24
2 – Stastney, 26
3 – Carfagna, 23
4 – Leppanen, 27
5 – Cibukla, 22
6 – Barnett,19
7 – Fischer, 21
8 – Sharp, 21
9 – Berry, 20
10 – Robinson,18
11 – Yevseyev, 22
I think Leppanen is likely dealt this season, Stastney is vulnerable and others like Fischer and Sharp could also be dealt this season, or next (US Factor). Berry is mostly suspect, despite his size, but he is at the bottom of the list due to skating.
In 2 seasons this list will be drastically different, but it is heartening to see the bets Bowman is making and the UFA signings he’s made.
However, at some point he’ll have to pay attention to the starboard side of the defense. Hopefully we see this in his future deals and at the upcoming draft.
I think the org is high on Sharp and he won’t be dealt unless they don’t think they can sign him.
The first key is to get Paul Fischer signed when Notre Dame is done this year – hopefully he’s interested and wants to burn that first year.
The path to free agency is clear now for Fischer. That’s a loss for the organization should it happen. The Oilers have invested heavily in the USHL-college route but if things keep coming up Marino it’s as wasteful as the Russian corridor.
He will be signing a 2-year ELC be it with the Oilers after Nortre Dame is done or with any club after August 15.
If he signs with the Oilers, it will burn the first year right away and he’ll have one year left in 2027/28.
If he signs with another teams, it will be 2-years start 2027/28.
That is a material factor.
We’ll see. Oilers do well with Canadian college kids (Justin Schultz) but it’s tough sledding with the American kids.
Money vs possible faster path.
These players tend to sign with teams that have a clear path to playing in the NHL while on their ELC.
That is certainly not the case with Fischer.
For anyone with FloHockey (which is what the AHL games are on, starting last year), they show the USHL and Muskegon at 1 today. I’m not sure if Berzkalns is playing but I know he didn’t play their last game so, maybe? If so, looking forward to getting eyes on him for the first time.
I want him next to the best mentor this team has, Draisaitl. But I also want Podz-Drai-Kap, the best line I’ve seen on this team since McDrai-Hyman in 2024-25. My gut says let Kap find his way; Howard (and the team) needs what Draisaitl brings more. If that means McDrai-Howard, it leaves room for Podz-RNH-Hyman. Might such a revisiting of the power of Kane-RNH-Hyman breathe life into RNH as centre?
Kap had his bet seasons under Mike he will give Kap an important role hopefully he stays healthy and Mike can pull out that scoring touch he had in Toronto.
I hope you are right but I think we need to remember Babs last coached Kappy 7 years ago. Kap was .564 in 2018/19 and .522 in 2019/20 with the Leafs (stayed consistent that year before & after MB was fired Nov/19). Then, he was actually .750 with the Pens in 2020/21 and .609 once he was moved to the Blues in 2022/23. I am hopeful also but I think the key for Kappy is more about his ability to stay healthy.
Mike seems to know what buttons to keep him focused. If he plays with Leon-Podkolzin a fair bit it would not surprise me if both Kasper and Podkolzin both bang home 20 goals each. Of all the players that needed some R&R on the beach I believe Leon benefits the most. A fresh Leon and I believe we see his 2nd MVP season showing the young whippersnappers like Celebrini-Bedard who the real Sheriff is.
Leon shoudl be going for his third Hart – he deserved that over Connor H.
Truth be told the Goalies have their own award. The Connor H Hart reminded me of when Jose Theodore won his. Now if you’re talking about the freak Hasek then damn straight this man deserved to win many Harts. For years Hasek controlled the game not the coaches not the refs and not any individual forward or D-man it was Hasek game in and game out.
Just for you:
R i N K Y
@RinkyReport
Demidov’s agent, Dan Milstein, about the contract: “If I had it my way, the deal probably would have looked a little different,” Milstein told The Gazette in a phone interview from near his Stuart, Fla., home.
“Ivan basically said he wanted the eight-year deal. He wanted it done quickly and wanted to leave room (financially) for Montreal to get even better.
“His exact words were, ‘We’re in a great situation. I feel like we’re going to be winning for many years.’ He wanted to leave money on the table so they can sign other players.” Per Herb Zurkowsky
Thanks. What they’re building is impressive. I see it in McD’s Oilers too.
Not closely comparable.
The Habs are built for the next decade.
Maybe but I have a suspicion that, if he was signing now as opposed to July 1 his AAV would be materially higher – just my suspicion of course – the quote is the quote.
The contract extension is heavily front loaded, paying him $35 million in the first 3 years.
Dont think he will be regretting anything.
I suspect that if he was singing now as opposed to July 1 his AAV would be materially higher and he would still have large signing bonuses in the first three years– just my suspicion of course – the quote is the quote.
My comment re what McD is doing has to do with this: players are chasing Cup first, not riches. The one they can get with most any team; the Cup, only w a talented, committed team that is aware of the Cap and puts team first. These kids already know they’re rich; they want the Cup. It’s a culture thing. It’s real in McD’s Oilers; it’s real in MLM’s Habs.
He jumped on the cash early his agent wife wanted that pool Now.
Draisaitl is going to have to give up his wingers to McDavid.
Podkolzin McDavid Kapanen.
It would have been Savoie on RW, but Kapanen gets the first shot.
Opens a spot for Howard with Draisaitl.
Everyone in the organisation has said that mcdavid and draisaitl are playing on the same line.
When that happens, I’m wishin’ and hopin’ Howard is there too. Wherever Drai is, I want Howard.
Not all the time, in particular on the road.
Apologies OP, this was meant to be a comment on LT’s Athletic article on Howard. Not sure what happened.
Your part of the OP Cult you can’t bullshit a bullshitter.
I’m still just sipping the Koolaid that OP’s offered. Not quite ready to drink it all up.
All good.
For what it’s worth, I watched bits and pieces of the game, saw maybe 4 shift of Berzkalns – not much going on – seemed good positionally. Exhibition games.
On Akey, yes LT could be right that the org just has no idea but I wonder if this is just us fans not realizing how young and raw he is. He was young when drafted so there were two full junior seasons post-draft – last year was just his 1st year pro and I think the org may have been very cautious with him coming off the shoulder surgeries and starting pro hockey.
He has having a very solid rookie pro season (albeit in a sheltered role generally) until that puck shattered his face not he bench. I wouldn’t think that had any real effect on his off-season training and this past summer would have been his first non-rehab summer in a while. I am hopeful he pops in the AHL this season and puts himself in the conversation for next year – that skating is real and spectacular.
He’s an NHL skater now and his goal share at even strength as a rookie was quality. He’s righthanded. Injury is the only real question imo. As for being raw, well, he can stand the onrushing forward at the blue line and race back in time to get the puck, and he’s smart in coverage. If that’s raw, I’ll take it.
I would think his absolute ceiling is Troy Stetcher.
6 foot Troy Stecher would be a pretty good dman
Pretty sure 2 inches don’t make that much difference.
At least, that’s what she said.
His skating will be better, but I think the Oilers grade him lower than Stecher.
Maybe “raw” was the wrong word and I should have gone with “inexperienced at the pro level”.
I am enthused that his body made it through a pro hockey season without issue (a puck to the face on the bench has little to do with the body handling pro hockey) so here is hoping that his body continues to hold and he isn’t one of those guys where freak things just seem to find him too often.
The org would not be smart to just be naive to our only good right shot D prospect. Reading about Larsson’s work in development and knowing how involved Gretzky is in the day to day I’d be very surprised if the org wasnt in tune with Akey’s value.
They weren’t strong on Kesselring. It might be a blind spot.
I think player development has improved significantly since then. But fair in that Gretzky was also in charge of Bako when the Kesselring trade happened AFAIK
I tend to blame the Kesselring loss on the pro scout(s) that thought Bjugstad could hold down 3C for that cup run. He was too slow by plenty
Why would Utah know the value of Kesserling but not Gretzky. I think you have it backwards if Utah knew about him so did Gretzky. Utah wanted full value for a 6’6” giant bottom 6 Centre that should play a 1000 games in the NHL before retiring. Holland rolled the dice for that elusive 3rd line Centre that has been costing us 1st rounder after 1st plus prospects since McDavid arrived. The experiment failed just as the Henrique acquisition had.
In a far off galaxy Dale Hunter one of the best Junior franchise for years told a little birdie with Oiler colours that O’Reilly was the real deal and the Oilers instantly traded their first the following year for the Philly pick to get their future 10 year 3rd line centre. Hyman gets injured out of action for possibly a half year may need another 6 months to get some of his game back. Oilers then trade their number one prospect who captured the Memorial Cup along with the MVP raving honours for an older Hobey Baker winner. It would not surprise me if O’Reilly arrives before Howard who plays an easier position smallish forwards need to arrive.
Howard is not in the Tage Thompson development or even a Schaefer in Nashville. Every hockey pundit worth his weight in salt knows big men take longer to arrive than small smart skilled wingers. Maybe the Iceman is thick in the head as in slow learner. It was either a case of a Ike being daft or a coach that basically let the players run the team and lines. Meanwhile I will be keeping my eyes on O’Reilly who is going to make BriseBois look like a genius.
Bowman needs to talk to Iron Mike this player Ike needs to be given a job that he was traded for especially now with the Savoie injury. If Iron Mike doesn’t like Howard then why not pump and dump him before trading him or make a deal with a desperate team that has a small scoring top 6 winger (plays PP) goes down in camp or early season. Every team has one or two someone like a Mercer or Keller teams will pay Bowman who should get back a cheap young checking winger that has a future with the organization or an affordable player that needs a fresh start.
Aside from the generational I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a junior player lauded like this – it reads like he’s solidified as a Jordan Staal/Adam Lowry combo without having played a pro games.
Its interest to throw out Issac Howard, who went down to the AHL and worked his ass off developing his deficient areas of the game, the areas the org told him he needs to improve on, as “think in the head and a slow learned” all while singing the praises of Connor Clattenburg who went down to the AHL last season and continuously disregarded the instruction, coaching and direction of his organization.
Small forward Jake Guentzel, recent Olympic gold medalist, played 33 games in the AHL as a 21 year old before establishing himself in the NHL.
It’s trades like these that win you Cups. How many first rounders chasing the same Centre you bottle then up and it’s 2 Cups for Zito and two for BrisBois. Winning trades matter hopefully both teams win this trade Oilers Bowman was in the the catbird seat yet Howard who plays the easier position and is 2 years older than O’Reilly has 2 career goals. I’ll take the over on O’Reilly getting 2 goals in two years of N.H.L development.
They should have listed to you, me and Curlock on Kesselring…….
Were they not high on him or were they willing to pay that price for the Bjugstad rental.
I think you are probably right as I always considered them “throwing in” Kesselring as the cost for retention on the cap hit.
I was so mad at the time (didn’t really want Bjugstad to start with and he did turn out to be 100% meh)
Sharp, Fischer and Barnett all shot left – damn, I though one of them was a right shot.
Each of those 3 is a notable prospect.
Elite prospects lists Akey at 6′ 172. Last year AHL forwards pushed him away with one arm. Whenever he tried playing net front, Akey would bounce off guys. He isn’t strong enough for the pro level yet. Watch how easily he was pushed off the puck in the Billy Moores 3-on-3 scrimmages back in July.
I’ll take a 57 percent goal share and those wheels all day.
He defended well to my eye – he had 36 out of 42 games where he was even or plus.
I don’t suspect he had maxed out his strength in his 20-year old rookie pro season coming off two seasons of shoulder surgeries……
I agree with pretty much everything in this blog on Leppanen.
Starting with how poor he was (and the Leppanen/Dineen pairing was) to start the season. Leppanen may have been the worst “away from the puck” d-man I had ever seen play professionally. He has absolutely no clue about defensive zone structure and positioning and couldn’t have been more soft on players and his play at the offensive blue line would make Evan Bouchard look like Jacob Slavin – just absolutely zero identification of risk. It didn’t help that Cam Dineen was almost equally awful and the pairing all but unplayable (and they were the 1st pairing).
The development in Leppanen’s 2-way game was somewhat stunning as, within a couple of months, he was a fully serviceable defensive d-man and his offensive skills started to shine – as LT points out. He really is a very good offensive player in the o-zone cycle game.
I agree with Niemien (a great follow) that he isn’t being talked about enough but agree with LT this is largely a depth chart issue. I would have to group Leo and Carfagna and they are behind, of course, the locked in 7, then the Stastney/Regula tier and then the Brown/Stillman tier.
At the same time, Lep and Carfagna have a chance to blow right by all of those and get NHL games. I would suggest that, due to playing style, Carfagna is more likely to see games on this team – less risk but some real attributes (puck moving in particular).
These are two that kind of get shafted by the short camp and 4 exhibition game schedule.
At the risk of getting sent to the box for continuing yesterday’s conversation, all this talk about Maxim Berezkin (Beryozkin is a better transliteration) led me down a Russian language rabbit hole. In fact, there is one sports writer in Russia who was quoting LT earlier this summer. Russian article link here:
The article refers to the Oilers as «нефтяников», or Oil Workers (apologies as always to native speakers), and describes how Russians have disappointed management, while pointing to Podkolzin, characterized as “going through the best period of his career.” LT gets quoted on Berezkin, “Maxim gives the impression of a truly serious prospect at the NHL.”
(BTW, LT’s pen name in Cyrillic gets rendered as Аллан Митчелл.)
More recently, Lokomotiv’s President Yuri Yakovlev said September 2 in response to a question, will it be possible to retain [Berezkin] long term, given NHL interest? Yakovlev responded, “We invite him to remain. How Maxim decides, we do not yet know. It is impossible to predict everything. I also think he plays robustly here. Of course, for us the interests of our team come first. I think here he is comfortable. Let us see what will be.”
From now on I am calling LT ‘ANNaH’
I’ve been called worse!
Thank you for your work.
I think I retain my initial position from the last few days, while it seems unlikely he signs a contract with the Oilers in the future, we just don’t know what the player is thinking today, tomorrow, a year from now or three years from now. I have read prior quotes about his dream of playing in the NHL and his only way to do that involved the Oilers.
I look forward to following his progress in the KHL this year.
Best hockey quote of the off-season: “It is impossible to predict everything.”
But still, we try.
we hoped for the best but it turned out like always 😉
Thank you! I’d forgotten that one.