This is the period where we get together and discuss lines and pairings, only to see them shuffled time and again during the playoffs. We don’t know when Leon Draisaitl returns, but he was at practice with Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen recently nd that’s promising on many levels. Please read this.
All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick. The top line appears set. Connor McDavid with Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie played 89 minutes together, scoring 3.36 GF and 2.02 GA per 60 for a 63 percent goal share (52 expected). I’m loving the GA-60, that’s the kind of suppression this team needs from the top lines.
Draisaitl with Podkolzin and Kapanen played 141 minutes together, with a whopping 5.1 GF-60 and 1.27 GA-60. That’s an 80 percent goal share (52 expected) and while unsustainable, that line could cool off quite a bit and still be money.
The third line at practice yesterday was Adam Henrique and Jack Roslovic on the wings with the Nuge in the middle. Nice. The line barely played together this year (18 minutes) and didn’t score, but did have an expected goal share of 66 percent. Music!
The fourth line is the one getting all of the attention. Colton Dach and Trent Frederic on the wings, and Josh Samanski in the middle. One fears coach Kris Knoblauch will fade Samanski when Jason Dickinson is ready, but there’s plenty to recommend the energy line with Samanski in the middle. In 40 minutes together during the regular season, the line scored 4.46 GF-60 and allowed 1.49 GA-60 for a 75 percent (63 expected) goal share. Regression will come, but that’s a line you can run out there confidently based on a small sample.
I would keep the pairings as they are. Ekholm-Bouchard appear healthy and are quality. Nurse-Murphy is also playing well and there’s no need to mess with success if your top 4-D is humming. Walman-Emberson has some wobble, and maybe you run Stastney out there if it’s bad in Game 1, but Stastney hasn’t played since Lougheed was Premier and that’s a long time ago. Run Connor Ingram when it matters, and it always matters in the postseason.
Ike Howard finished his AHL season at 24-26-50 in 47 games. He’s the guy to watch moving forward, but there are some quality players on the farm (including Damien Carfagna). Alright, let’s hear those lines and pairings ideas!
It took 1 game for Kasper to earn a 2 year contract. If Jason keeps scoring he’ll price himself out of Edmonton. The Ducks game plan was to swarm Connor-Leon and they did a hell of a job tonight. When Henrique got hurt so early it messed all the lines up. Samanski it’s your turn to become a hero for the Oilers.
1 down 15 more to go. Holy smokes that was way to stressful.
Dickerson is going to get the Hatty
Leon is the most interesting man alive.
I’m getting pumped let’s clog up the middle and frustrate the young Ducks.
Does anyone else find it interesting that three of the four second place division finishers lost game 1 and the fourth one doesn’t play until Monday night?
2006 vibes in 2026. Edmonton, Buffalo, and Carolina could make the final four.
Vegas and Utah look like they are out to decapitate each other so that’s good
Wow, Buffalo just turned the tide against the Bruins big time. Amazing 4 straight goals after being down 2-0 with 8 minutes left in the 3rd. Boston just cut it to 4-3 but Sabres have an EN GWG. Their fans are going nuts!
My new 2nd favorite team
Ditto. Game with 11 penalties and Ryan McL -1!
Its a good thing I told the troll to get lost, something about everything they/them touches turns to shit, when they/them were talking about the Sabres. I think I somehow reversed the kiss of death from Fibs Fibbernazi (FF) formerly HH… and now SM.
I guess after you’ve waited 15 years, what’s another 48 minutes or so?
Sabres have officially woken up
That was Vasilevsky in net. Not Skinner. Are the haters going to blame Valsilevsky for that goal by an elite shooter in Slafkovsky, like they did last night for a similar shot by an elite shooter in Martone yesterday?
How many Stanley Cups has Vasilevsky won?
Is Martone considered an elite shooter?
I don’t know but he does have 5 goals in 10 games as a 19 year old. Cant believe Nashville took Brady Martin over him. Oof
Yeah, James Hagens was available too. A real off the board pick.
Trotz was an absolute stud coach, love the guy….but out of his depth as GM. Maybe he should have taken the Jets head coaching gig instead.
25 goals in 35 games at Michigan State as an 18 year old where he led his team in scoring by a significant margin.
4 goals and 10 points in 9 regular season games in the NHL…a 35 goal 91 point pace.
And another goal in his first NHL playoff game.
What do you think?
I think goals can be scored in ways that don’t require an elite shot.
His scouting reports mention he has a great shot, but didn’t really say anything about it making his shot stand out.
So again, is he an elite shooter?
” Porter Martone (2025 #6 pick) is widely regarded as an elite scoring prospect with rapid adaptation to the NHL.
Immediately upon his 2026 debut for the Flyers, he became a top-line contributor, scoring in his playoff debut and recording a league-high 15 shots on goal in his first three NHL games. – NHL.com“
“Elite Potential: Described as a power forward with an NHL-ready, precise shot, high-end, and ability to score with minimal net.
His combination of 6’3″ size and scoring ability projects him to be a dominant, elite-level power forward.” – Broad Street Buzz
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/top-75-nhl-affiliated-skater-prospects-2025-26-rankings
I see you got beat up pretty early here yesterday morning, nary a peep after that, lol.
How many uppercuts you gonna take in here?
Treading lightly today though, hey SM…
#punchdrunk
“Elite scoring forward”
“Precise shot”
“Power forward”
So he’s a power forward with an accurate shot. Got it.
That you are a prick.
What connection does Vasilevsky have to the Oilers that Stuart Skinner does that would necessitate a similar comment on an Oiler blog.
Anyone else watch the Avs game?
Wow do they flop a lot… I should have screenshotted the makar head throwback and facial image as if he was going to cry behind the net when he got a dirty glove during the puck battle.
Mackinnon flopped on the byfield trip (a trip but he sold it good…)
So aside from stating the obvious … are they just so used to getting the calls or do they train in soccer style diving? It was embarassing.
They also missed the memo that cali teams get slightly “different ” officiating normally. Should be a goood test for Gary’s league.
Proposed lines:
Savoie-McD-Hyman
Podz-Drai-Kap
Rico-Nuge-Roslo
Dach-Sam-Fred (I’d actually play Lazar over Fred, but will never happen)
When behind in the game, nuclear option:
Drai-McD-Savoie
Nuge-Roslo-Hyman
Podz-Sam-Kap
Dach-Rico-Fred
The NHE 2026 Playoff Rule Book for round 1 is becoming clearer:
1. Cross checking is legal during play or after the whistles. Only way it gets called is if it is a coincidental
2. High sticking is the highest priority call as long as there is a corresponding head snap back to help the zebras
3. Slashing is a call that can be implemented at zebras discretion if there is a need to even out the calls or give a team trailing by greater than 2 goals a chance to come back – without the puck looks ok, with the puck more likely to get called
4. Interference is an acceptable tactic unless there is a sufficient sell job
5. Embellishment has been removed for the playoffs as is standard procedure
6. Roughing? Only if coincidental
7. Goaltender interference will er on the side of calling goals back to ensure games stay low scoring and therefore close
Am I missing anything?
8 tripping can be called if a stick hits a skate and the opposing player stumbles a bit….but only when a makeup call is needed for either too many men, puck over glass, or unsuccessful challenge.
9! You can hit an opponent’s stick into your teammates face and the opponent will be penalized with at least a double minor, but potentially a major or even a “triple” minor. However, thus rule only applies to teams where the coach has been with the non-offending team for at least 10 years.
3.(a) slashing: A two handed axe swinging like motion making contact to an oiler players appendage shall only result in a one game suspension even if the intent to injure is clear and only if an oiler player is also suspended in the same game due to a completely made up violation.
Anybody here enjoying what the Blue Jays are doing today?
Yea this hopefully kickstarts the O for the next couple of weeks. I’m glad Scheider finally lowered Okamoto in the batting order. Let the man get used to MLB pitching and the culture difference.
He had a good game, for sure. Lukes and Ernie too. Nice way to segue into the Habs game.
Who is the Oilers “8th” defenceman?
Regula?
Coffey
Gary Larivière
just not Steve Smith
It is highly satisfying to watch the Avs have to put up with the Kings shenanigans
For sure. I can’t watch, TSN shot map shows the Kings keeping them to the perimeter. We’ll see if they can keep that up
Any team can win come playoff time if you can keep a team to the outside and get some saves on the P.K. I’m glad we’re not facing the Kings and the trap. The Kings can easily put a team and the Refs to sleep. They also have a few real dangerous players that can score in a tight game or OT.
Feels weird cheering for the Kings in the playoffs. Obviously want the unlikely upset or at least the series to go as long as possible.
This is the Kings, fugly but can be effective. Its a tough way to win. AVs have too much scoring talent to lose this series but stranger things have happened. Avs just need 1 goal from thier high end guys. I won’t be watching 1 second.
We’ve all seen it, example 2006 Edmonton vs Detroit
lol, no kidding. If LA could actually score they could win this
I’m seeing a big 3rd period for the Kings.
Oops.
Classic Fib, if the Kings score some comment, if the Avs score the corresponding comment. The common denominator, no substance.
I like this group better than last season’s playoff group. Younger, faster, more team toughness to me. My hope is the bottom 6 brings some offense. On paper it looks to have more pop and range. Brown Arvidsson Skinner Frederic (hurt) Henrique and Perry didn’t have a lot of jump as skaters, even if some are good skaters. Hopefully this group can pressure more by getting to plays faster
A big thing I think hurt the bottom 6 before was the D moving the puck well enough for them. If Walman plays well enough, that’s a big help on 3rd pair with that. Just need Nurse Murphy to also do well enough when on with them
I do as well it’s unbelievable with the Bettman point that it took so long into the season to win 3 in a row. Three short offseason and in particular the last two which were the shortest ever has me knowing that the core was mentally tired as well as wear and tear. McDavid always seems to get better as the season goes on I do feel the away from the rink is going to be beneficial for Hyman and especially Leon who needs a couple of games to get his sea legs-timing back. Leon for Conn Smyrhe.
I don’t like it better. Our Bottom 6 last year was really good, for the first time in the McDavid era. And unlike this year’s Bottom 6, they demonstrated that for big chunks of the regular season.
What I do like is that all of the projected lines have been good together, and good recently. So there’s at least hope.
Did anyone else just see the tickytack stick check penalty in the kings/avs game? Good grief, we’re gonna be in for some frustrating calls if this is any indication.
Wasn’t tuned in yet. I’ll tell you one thing. The Avs get the calls.
The call on Joseph was textbook Avs officiating. The kind of play that doesn’t get called if it’s the Oilers.
Another one in the habs/bolts game just now. A trip i guess? Garbage. Refs wanna be the story i see.
I know many dislike (hate) the playoff format but, god damn, like every first round matchup is intriguing to me!
I don’t know how with all the rivalries, plus the extra travel costs etc. you can have playoff format different than what it is. Next year maybe the Smyth division will kick and the Atlantic will suck
I think the players prefer 1 to 8, I haven’t seen any player liking this set up. But Gary likes it and he’s not going anywhere soon, and it actually doesn’t change brackets that much
bring back the 1-8!
They get bonuses per round so yeah I’d want 1-8 if im 7 of the top 8 teams who have to play each other round 1.
I want to see 1-16 seeding, it’s what the Gords intended.
So if you go 1-8, do you still give the division winners the 1, 2 seeding? If not, what’s the point of a division, and if you did it then winning the division has big impact in certain years (like this one).
But, like OP, I’m a fan of the matchups this year
We can bitch & complain all we want. But they’re locked and ready to roll IMO.
Go Oilers
“The regular season has become a bit monotonous for this group. I think you see that in the day to day. This is what we get excited for” – Connor McDavid
Hyman will break the single playoff season hit record, he’ll also trail Podzgoalman in hits by the end.
Just don’t get hurt Zach
💯
You either Dach
I’m kind of surprised he said that.
Yeah, better not bow out early.
This is what a handful of us have been saying all year.
it doesn’t generate the same type of clicks that “Knoblauch is a bum! McDavid wants to be traded! Or Stu was a great goalie!” Generate but it’s pretty obvious.
Bow out early? Hahahahaha another awesome take in a season of hysterical takes.
Thinking it will be stupid to sit Samanski and insert Henrique between Dach and Freddy.
No clue ( And I don’t care about Henrique’s pk play) why you would break up a line that was very strong the last 2-3 games. Just stupid .
I guess we’ll see. Rico does raise his level of play during the playoffs. He may even make the line stronger with his veteran savy.
Hope so.
But what do we do with the shiny new player Samanski! Just joshing, although I was hoping they’d keep him in. A case of two things being valid. So I appreciate your balanced take. KK can always go back to the young German. Henrique is hockey wise and that’s a comforting thing to be sure
I don’t think he has the legs any longer. He seems to be one step behind the play this year .My vote is Samanski
Staples with Cult of Hockey has a very informative article that answers your concerns.
If the banged up players are close to 100% this team will be formidable.
There’s no doubt the banged up players will be welcomed back in a hurry. But they’re still formitable without them. The fact they look to be in the lineup must mean they’re 100%.
I knew Henri was playing better, but that is a lot better. Sam’s day will come, maybe these playoffs. Staples is wrong in one thing, comparing starting line ups this year and last and saying Savoie is smaller than C Brown. He is shorter but they are close to the same weight, a wash to me, Savoie is probably more assertive
Waiting to insert Broberg cost the McDavid Oilers one Stanley Cup already.
Fool me once. Shame on you. Fool me twice.
Those who fail to learn from history…
History does not repeat itself, but it rhymes.
As I said to Shamus Henri gets first crack, but if he can’t do it I think there is more pressure on Knoblauch to put Samanski in, for the reason you said. Play the most currently capable players, and that includes for players too injured to play their game well enough. At forward there is the depth to do that thanks to Bowman
Too bad they lack depth on the blueline.
LOL: Nurse/Broberg got absolutely caved together in the playoff run, to the tune of near 35% expected goals.
How did waiting to insert him cost the cup given they didn’t lose a series until he was inserted?
This is like the 45th time yall have had this conversation.
Seemingly always initiated by Godot. He’s nothing if not consistent.
Broberg is a great D. It would be really awesome to have him. He also acted like a total diva when he was here with the aid of his agent (I was going to use a b word, which would be more apt).
Broberg’s presence last year would not have won us a cup. The D was solid. Holloway would have likely been far more impactful and was so easy to retain, and he actually wanted to be on the team. Why don’t you bang that drum again, because it actually would make sense.
An upgrade on Skinner-Pickard would have also made a big difference, but you didn’t make that connection, either
Brat?
Now do actual goals for %.
I’m well aware of their goal share and that its not representative of their play.
If you want, we can go back and pick out the poor plays and the re-watch the getting caved and ignore the goal share, you known, kind of like when you pop up in game threads ONLY to reference Bouchard mistake and disregard his effect on goal share…..?
Like a dog on a bone. I don’t remember Broberg playing all that well. I do remember him getting hit with a puck that then bounced into the net…
He was not a good RHD. And he was our 4th best LHD. And it’s time to let it go.
Savoie goes into the dirty areas just as much as Brown ever did. He is faster and more offensively gifted by a lot
I am very interested to see how Savoie goes. I still remember Yamamoto in the playoffs – he was like a boy amongst men.
Yamamoto is a veey slight frame weight wise to go along with height/reach reductions.
Savoie is a decent bit more solid stocky built
Actually Brown had a very good offensive year with the Devils
There is that veterans will be given the first opportunity, which makes sense if they are playing well which Henri has been the last while. Team harmony, they weren’t happy when Ryan was sent down, even with that he couldn’t play at a high enough level given the circumstances, or when Pick went down having also not been good enough. If Henri can’t do it there is nothing to gripe about if he gets sat. Could also be his last season
Ingy has never felt better, has no intention of giving up the net.
Far cry from early series Stu who let in 6 including the worst back breaker ive ever seen after 97 singlehandedly dragged them back in that game. That 5-5 goal was magical then stupid stupid loss.
Feel way better about the backend than last year too. 2025 Josh Brown started. Way better now but last year. Woof.
Game 1 lineup last season:
Hyman-McDavid-Brown
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Arvidsson
Skinner-RNH-Frederic
Janmark-Henrique-Perry
Nurse-Bouchard
Kulak-Walman
Emberson-Brown
Skinner
——————–
Game 2 lineup last season:
Draisaitl-McDavid-Perry
Kane-RNH-Hyman
Frederic-Henrique-Brown
Podkolzin-Janmark-Arvidsson
Nurse-Bouchard
Walman-Klingberg
Kulak-Emberson
Skinner
——————-
Likely Game 1 lineup this season:
Savoie-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen
RNH-Dickinson-Roslovic
Dach-Henrique-Frederic
Lazar-Samanski
————–
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Murphy
Walman-Emberson
Stastney
—————
Ingram
Jarry
They’re much healthier to start this playoff run.
How come Arvidsson gets 25 goals and 54 points in 69 games with the Bruins (at 33) and not-so-much with Edmonton?
coming Off injury, then reinjured it Im pretty sure mid season. Also they didn’t like him with Drai or McDavid so he never really found a role. It’s interesting looking at his playoff numbers from last year because he was pretty much back to himself.
Contract year?
I think Knoblauch’s 5v5 system makes it hard to score 5v5 for most players, also more PP time on the Bruins. The team has been regressing in 5v5 GF there since he took over, and they still struggle with GA a lot of the time
I wonder if the attack was a bit different it might keep the guys engaged more during the season (also letting other guys get some PP time to get their offense going), which would probably help them wanting to defend more consistently. Not a group built for a slog long term, even if they will do that during playoffs
Style of play. The Oilers play on the perimeter and until an opportunity arises to pass it into the net more than other teams. Other teams play more direct, and funnel the play towards the net quickly.
Brown year 1 vs year 2 post injury.
Frederic year 1 vs year 2 post injury.
Arvi had a solid P/60 in the playoffs but the die had already been cast. Not justifying it but Roslovic is producing at a fraction of the cost and that has value
“How come Arvidsson gets 25 goals and 54 points in 69 games with the Bruins (at 33) and not-so-much with Edmonton?”
One reason is he was put on a line early and they kept it all year long.
Zacha – Mittlestadt
They had a great finish to the season
Is leon in?
He still needs to be cleared by the doctors. But if Draisaitl & Dickinson don’t play they’ll find their way until they’re fully ready.
So if no Drai then Nuge centers the 2nd line?
Certainly more depth down the middle and a stronger starting six on defense.
Disappointment is an understatement for me, to see Samanski come out but Henrique stay in. We will see how it plays out but I’m wary that if things go south in game 1, Knob will be scrambling to course correct when a pretty optimal lineup was sitting right there to take.
I hope it is not a costly mistake. Last year Knob started Josh Brown in game 1, and it helped cost us the game and quite frankly almost the series had a series of very fortunate events not occurred in games 3 and 4.
Here’s hoping the veterans live up to the billing this coach is putting on them.
I forgot they started Brown in game 1. That was weird
Stu was awful. Brown was on for 10 seconds and gave up a goal but the game ended 6-5. Brown was not even close to costing them the series.
Samanski has little regular season experience and no playoff experience. Henrique has a long playoff resume with good penalty kill, defensive work and is very good on the dot this year at 54.1%. I like Samanski too, especially with Dach and Frederic, but what is Knoblauch supposed to do, sit Henrique for the first game of the playoffs, it probably sends a mixed message to the vets. Let’s wait and see what happens after game 1
Good points. As OP mentioned below, if that line drops off with Rico then they should make a change but it makes sense to start like this,
Samanski has so much room for growth, he is a very nice depth option. His offense is Janmark-level. Henrique is playing good hockey again. 99 out of 100 times a coach will go with the 1,000 game vet over a young undrafted player with only 24 games under his belt.
Henrique’s offense is Janmarks level
With a 1000 games of experience . . . . lol
So, he’s running on bald tires with the radiator smoking.
He still has GPS.
Samanski has produced Janmark level offence (as has Dickinson and as has Rico) but I would note, in their 40 minutes together, the Dach/Samanski/Frederic line is 4.46 GF/60……
Looking at all Western Conference team’s last 10 games, one team really stands out.
COL 7-2-1 W3
DAL 7-2-1 W5
MIN 6-4-0 W1
VGK 7-0-3 W3
EDM 6-2-2 W1
ANA 2-6-2 W1
UTA 6-4-0 L1
LAK 6-2-2. L1
Doesnt matter. Play the games. Thats it. 🤷♂️
Exactly..new season
That “standout” lost its first playoff game 6 – 1.
Anaheim is the stand out.
I was looking at VGK. But yeah I guess Anaheim does too.
I think it was the Ducks at 2-6-2
Aaaand it appears Samanski draws the short straw as Dickinson is back with RNH & Roslovic, moving Henrique to Samanski’s spot. *grumpy noises*
As expected, Rico over Samanski at practice today – per Stauff:
Both of Dickinson & Henrique will need to bring it. Samanski & Lazar will be breathing down their necks. I do like that Samanski is a LHC/LW and Lazar is a RHC/RW. I have to say my preference would be Samanski over Henrique, which is an odd stand point for me to take considering I usually like a veteran ladden lineup.
Yes, this is what I expected even if I hoped Samanski would be in over Henrique. I hope whatever lines they start with stay together as that likely means the Oilers are winning games. Although Knoblach inexplicably changed things up a couple times in the last couple months after mini winning streaks so who knows? He just can’t help himself it seems
Honestly I don’t mind it.
rico in his last 10:
54% xGF, 50% goals, 65% high danger chances. While starting in the dzone a lot still. I’m sure Samanski will get in soon snd it’s a good thing to have good options when knob wants to change things up.
Yup, Rico has been solid over the last while – fairly locked down defensively and great on the PK. He has a history of increased physicality and scoring the odd big goal in the playoffs.
I want Samanski in but I’m fine to see how Rico looks for a game – as long as the coach makes the move if either Rico struggles or that line isn’t nearly as effective without Samanski.
There is no other worldly team in the playoffs this year. It would be a shame for the McDavid Oilers waste this opportunity.
I agree but the Av’s look a little out of this world as well
Yup, the best in the east are all vulnerable to early exits, while the Central all have to claw their way past each other. Keeping their heads & playing the tight game of the last month could pay strong dividends for the Oilers this year.
Florida was a juggernaut last year. No one was beating them. That combination of toughness and skill was unstoppable. This year is wide open. Every series in the east could legitimately be an upset, with the lower seeded team winning. The Avs are very very good, but they don’t have the toughness or depth of last year’s Panthers. Florida’s third line was a nightmare.
Colorado’s third line:
Landeskog – Kadri – Roy
Depth
They are very fast and very talented, but should be interesting cuz they a relatively small team with a few geezers, like we all have I guess
The Oilers 3rd line has 2 20 goal scorers, the Av’s 0 20 goal scorers.
Depth.
They closed the cap loophole and suddenly things get more fair when everyone has the same cap.
Shocker.
Truth
Opps did you forget dirty, dirty dirty, different than toughness where I come from
Avs n Wild look like the class of the west, tho COL has looked mortal in its bouts w EDM. Mini has for the most part skated straight through the Oilers.
The Wild had their way with the Stars. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avs vs Wild next round. There now I’ve jinxed them, it will probably br Kings vs Stars now LOL.
Mortal?.. not the 9-2 shellacking anyways
And lest we forget the Avs lost to the AHL caliber Canucks 8-6 recently. I know, don’t put much stock in one game, but everyone has seen how bad the Canucks were/are. Count me out on the Avs being unstoppable. Really no one is, or at least as Oilers players you better believe no one is. Fear and too much respect ruins long playoff runs
It’s been a fantastic season for Ike Howard and kudos to the organization for helping him develop. He got a 20+ game NHL runway – he got to see the speed, skill and structure of the NHL game a learned what he needed to work on – he was then the best rookie in the AHL while developing those aspects of the game.
He’s set up to be a legit middle six player with top 6 upside next season – a similar trajectory to Matt Savoie.
Poulin too, plus he’s big(I think)
Poulin may not be in the org though – he’s a Group 6 UFA and can sign with anyone. I presume he sees the glut of potential depth forwards for the Oilers and looks to sign with another org with more visible path.
We’ll see though.
When push comes to shove I know who I would prefer, but they will need to sign him.. Plus, it will be intersting to see Berezkin. I’m thinking they will have an even stronger lineup next year with or without Howard. It’s all good.
Berezkin will be quite the wild-card. He’ll be in the conversation heading in to camp but he can prove to be anything from a legit middle six power forward to an AHL level player.
Looking forward to getting real eyes on him in September.
(Podz-Leon-Berezkin) might be a load to behold. Can Leon speak Russian?
I would be floored if Berezkin came over and could hold down a top 6 role.
I don’t know how they make room for everyone. If they move Janmark they have 8 F contracts, but I imagine they want to keep Dach, so 5 spots left if they run 23. How many new (Savoie/Samanski) or rookie players (Dach Howard Jarventie Hutson Berezkin) will Knoblauch use? Do they want rookies to get lots of TOI in the A?
Do they want to keep Dickinson? Bako will probably be stacked next season up front
That will all work itself out.
I mean Samanski, Dach and Howard are locks.
Hutson, Jarventie, Berezkin likely pencilled outside the lineup and need to take someone’s job.
Of course, I’m one that thinks they can move on from Roslovic and Dickinson and promote internals!
Huston?
Why Howard over Huston?, similar stats all around including college play, age, weight etc
No, not similar age.
Issac Howard is 3 tiers above Quinn Hutson.
Their point total may be similar but the 2.5 year age difference is massive.
Howard is a much more dynamic player, in my opinion.
Those numbers for the Dach/Samanski/Frederic line are with it being the third line. With a couple additions to the lineup, that’s the fourth line and can be even more effective.
The forwards have depth. Not only can the bottom six positively impact but there are players out side the lineup that can slide right in and help positively impact.
I also like the range of the bottom 6 more, even if Perry is still a very good player and probably more skilled around the net. I think despite that it was difficult for the coaches to find roles for old slower players when the tempo got so high and space gone
The guys while looking good on paper still have to get the job done and put some pucks in the net and also at least saw off
Dickinson expected to practice today. Presuming so, it will be interesting to see which player is outside the line rushes.
I presume they will do a rotation.
If you put Dickinson and Nuge together you have to move Roslovic off that line.
I say Henrique, and they all happen to be centermen
Do you mean Roslovic should play in the top six in place of Kapanen?
Whichever players bring out the best in Draisaitl should be playing with him. At the moment, that’s Kapanen and not Roslovic.
Both Roslovic and Kapanen are pretty inconsistent, though, so I suspect that will change over the course of the playoffs.
The Oilers were 25th in the league in power play opportunities this season. Out of the remaining 16 teams in this years playoffs the Oil rank last at 16th. Of course
The Paul Maurice special. Refs could call a penalty per shift with 97 on the ice.
But they dont. Because they dont want to put their finger on the pulse of the game.
And thereby put their finger on the pulse.
I’ve hated the, “they’re letting them play” comments since I was a kid. It gives a real advantage to teams that are slow and punishes skill.
What league with any level of common sense would want to punish skill?
People want to see McDavid, Draisaitl, MacKinnon, Celebrini shine. They don’t pay to see Bennett, Marchment and Paul mugging the other teams best players.
I have to laugh at the Lougheed comment!
Everyone talks about the poor play by Byfield that let the Oilers back in the series – I’m here to point out that absolute elite and special play made by Evan Bouchard.
Playoff Bouchard is a thing – it’s real and it’s spectacular!
I agree. And I bet Fib downvoted your comment, as a few weeks ago he said the same thing, and I corrected him that it was Bouchard’s brilliant play and not Byfield’s that was memorable. Oh Fib, can’t be fair even when it was clear as day
First game of the playoffs last season included Josh Brown in the lineup. Ekholm was not.
This defensive group, in particular with how the 2nd pairing are playing, is much better.
“Stastney hasn’t played since Lougheed was Premier” made me spit up my coffee. Gold Jerry. I wasn’t of this opinion earlier in the season, hell even at the deadline; but I actually think that this team is going into the playoffs is better than last year’s team.
Get at Gudas right off the opening face-off, send a message. Don’t let him or Trouba run around injuring our players.
One more sleep, we got this.
Initiating a war of attrition may not be in the Oilers best interests.
The Ducks have some pretty big boys throughout their lineup.
Patty Dach Supremacy is the war.
We’ll see.
Dach is a big boy at 6’4″ 218
So are these guys:
Kreider – 6’3″ 231
Gauthier – 6’2″ 205
Sennecke – 6’3″ 205
Carlsson – 6’3″ 207
McTavish – 6’1′ 220
Moore – 6’3″ 205
Washe – 6’3″ 216
Poehling 6’2″ 205
Killorn – 6’1″ 205
Johnston – 6’5″ 234
Trouba – 6’3″ 212
Carlson – 6’3″ 216
Gudas – 6’0′ 205
LaCombe 6’3″ 207
Mintyyukov – 6’1″ 207
Moore – 6’3″ 207
Luneau – 6’3″ 210
Helleson – 6’3″ 207
The Ducks have only 1 regular forward under 6 feet…Mikael Granlund at 5’10” and 1 D, Zellweger at 5’10’.
It would seem Verbeek was intent on building a roster suitable for playoff hockey.
Remember when you did that last year with Helenius and Jeff Mallott.
Good times.
Good times indeed. He’s resorting to distraction and blubbering talk, one of his faves
Hmm, reminds me of the panthers somehow…
Oilers only have 1 forward period under 6ft
Savoie – 179
McDavid – 194
Podkholzin – 190
Nugent-Hopkins – 192
Kapanen – 194
Rolsovic – 198
Henrique – 194
Emberson – 194
Samanski -190
Being big ≠ playing with an edge.
Trouba – 6’3″ 212
Carlson – 6’3″ 216
Gudas – 6’0′ 205
LaCombe 6’3″ 207
Mintyyukov – 6’1″ 207
Moore – 6’3″ 207
Luneau – 6’3″ 210
Nothing like excluding the small guy and including a bigger guy with 2 NHL GP. For a like comparison we can include for the Oilers:
Josh Brown @ 6’5 225 lbs
Alex Regula @ 6’4 211 lbs
🙄
The Ducks are pussies and will be exposed. Gudas is huge but I honestly don’t think he has a mean bone in his body. And you don’t run him and Trouba, you go after their stars if they start any monkey business.
Interesting take, gotta consider it. On Gudas, it seems to me his history establishes he is reckless to a fault with his, shall we say, body position and checks and he should know better. So at some point he’s guilty of dangerous play and he doesn’t seem to care, despite his recent apologies for taking out Matthews. Who knows if he has a mean bone in his body as no one could ever know, but his body, as proven by his track history, can be very destructive JMO
Gudas isn’t actually that big of a dude…..
He’s 6 feet close to 210, sometimes it’s not so much the size. Tim Horton was 5’10 180 lbs and feared by everyone in the league(mind you only 120 players in 1967)
Fear never won a game. It’s about a keen attention to extreme hazards. And who said anything about a war of attrition? Focus, cause you’ll need to agree these two need special watching cause they don’t give a shit who they hurt or how they do it and prior discipline (if you call it that) is like water off a ducks beak for them
May not. May be. Thats it. We all understand nothing is written in stone. Do you?
Keep Samanski where he is. Even thought he can’t piss a goal, he’s a revelation
Here here. Let the fourth line sing in the ears of Trouba and Goudas. Make sure they know they will pay. Both are intentional assassins who don’t care about player safety in any way, shape or form. Goudas in particular cant help himself. It’s like he’d hurt anyone in any way to get that last piece of chicken, even at a Sunday family dinner after going to church. I’d want neither on my team but that’s personal and I could see why others might
Henrique can’t piss a goal either and is only on the ice for the PK. Has he even centered the Bash Bros before?
Don’t think so, please, anyone, correct me I’m wrong. He’s not a bashing style player, as we all know. As you mentioned above, his on ice wisdom maybe the reason for his start….
Henrique is not a bashing player in the regular season but year after year he massively increases his hit are in the playoffs – up from apx 3 H/60 to 11 last season (14 the year before – that’s hits/60).
Thanks OP, the math is an eye opener. He knows when to up his intensity, a sign of a wise veteran, the part I like most about him
Lots of positives. I’m only commenting on concerns here.
Walman- has been flying under the radar. He can be so much better. However, he has not been very good and not lived up the potential.
If he continues to wobble, he can be somewhat sheltered. If he comes back into form and starts making smart plays again he can be a difference maker.This is huge for our defence and gives us a spare for top four minutes.
Frederic- his top speed is decent and enough to keep up. However, he doesn’t use it very much. His speed is generally much much slower. He started to pick things up at the end of the season.
He still needs to find another gear and play up to potential.
Every player is gonna pick it up in the playoffs, but these two can really make a difference if they pick up their game, play intense hockey, and do what we know they can do.
Walman is a fine option on the third pair, while Frederic will play on the fourth line. I don’t understand the concern?
While its disappointing that Walman and Fredie are currently 3rd pairing and 4th line players, the fact we have players that have established themselves farther up the lineup in this league in those spots shows a depth to the lineup.
Not a bad concern at all.
I guess we’ll find out if these are actually the lines going forward if they get down early.
I don’t think there is a combination with the exception of the fourth line that I’d like for playoff hockey if McDrai is reunited.
Don’t they usually lose the first game ?
When Dickinson returns I’d scratch Henrique and move Nuge to his wing while leaving the rest of the line up set the way you’ve layed it out.
Yeah, that is the spot for Dickinson. He’s the superior player and PK’r to Henrique. Hopefully Samanski demonstrates his value on the 4th so he doesn’t get tossed for the lesser vet.
This is a good play. Keeps Samanski and his wonderful sense of humor out there. He’s very easy to like with his effective and subtle play
And the bash brothers are turning him into a bully.
Excellent point. His ill humor and nasty side kicks makes for a fun and effective line to watch. Hope they speak whispers of love into the ears of Gudas and Trouba
It appears that after spending the entire season experimenting with line combinations, Knoblach is finally set on running the best lines possible. I hope it lasts!
Knoblauch always dials it in the last month of the season and playoffs. Woukd be very interesting to one day find out why he does it.
i hope he will also be able to resist loading up McDrai this playoffs as the two are much better apart this year. Savoie McDavid and Podz Drai Kapanen is as good as it gets. I also am guessing he is working with the analytics team a lot more as these are basically the optimal lines based on the data we have. Go Knob!
I like a loaded burger or sub. Not loading up 97/29, unless you got to break the glass and there’s an emergency so KK needs to stop that, especially 5 minutes into the game
Yeah I agree it’s good in small doses but should be limited to the last 10 minutes when they are down or the odd shift after a PK. Even in the last 10 minutes though I think they have better odds rolling out 2 lines that can score.
I strongly agree, although others might not 😉 Such is life. Enjoy the day Lenny, always nice to read your takes!
Cheers – same to you!
Mcdrai is always a great option, especially if down a goal or two
Hopefully we will continue with 4 lines of great defense which took us a long way last year
If they’re all healthy, it looks pretty scary. More speed than past years to my eye, and a better top 4 on the back end. This is exactly the role I was hoping to see Henrique in now (I know I’m the only one still lighting a candle for him at this point). That being said, if Dickinson can go tomorrow, Henrique probably comes out for me, and Dickinson centers Nuge and Roslovic. That’s a third line that should mash its matchup in either barn.
LFG!!!
Do you mean, a better top 4 in the bottom 6?
And actually, I thought I was the only one with a Henrique candle burning… make a wish!
On the defence.
Another for Team Henry!
Henrique is easy to like. He’s that guy who brings the intangibles, smarts and experience, and sadly his body isn’t cooperating as much
You just stole my comment, by an eyelash😅👍
Not just a better top 4 on the backend but a better bottom pairing.
I mean, Walman has struggled but he’s a proven top 4 d-man playing on the 3rd pairing and Emberson is a perfect defensive 3RD.
Yeah we can all find the faults, but Bowman has done a decent job of building up the overall skater depth.
Heres the lineup for game 1 of the playoffs last year. I think this year is significantly improved.
Hyman – McDavid – Brown
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Skinner – Nugent-Hopkins – Frederic
Janmark – Henrique – Perry
Nurse – Bouchard
Kulak – Walman
Emberson – Brown
Skinner
Pickard
I like a banger on each line… it will be unpopular but:
Podkolzin Draisaitl Roslovic
Henrique Nuge Frederic
Dach Dickinson Kapanen
It assumes Dick’s back in, Freddy got fingered on his contract, and Kapanen has slowed considerably and may have an ailment. I gave the boost in offence to the 2nd line. In some ways I can also see Samanski playing wing, but it won’t be in game 1, especially after Dach’s Gordie Howe Hat Trick.
Can’t Roslovic hit? He’s 6’2 200 so you’d think a bit of playoff pummeling would be nice
Ros’s career issue is unpredictably. He has all the tools, never know which ones he’ll use and if he remembers what to do in his own end
I agree in part but disagree in a sense of maximizing sum greater than parts type lineups way and 4 lines that are a threat to score sense.
Kapanen compared to Roslovic (natural stat trick)
EVEN STRENGTH
TOI/G 13:06 -> 14:06
CF/60 49.5 -> 62.38
CA/60 58.4 -> 56.04
CF% 45.6 -> 52.7
SF/60 25.7 -> 31.3
SA/60 23.6 -> 24.5
SF% 52.2 -> 56.3
***at this point you are surely thinking Roslovic way better option….but….***
GF/60 2.46 -> 2.77
GA/60 2.01 -> 2.90
GF% 55.0 -> 48.9
***a ton more bluster and pizazz but impact??? Results opposite as far as net benefit even strength from rough overview right there***
XGF/60 46.9 -> 50.3
HDCF/60 8.6 -> 11.3
HDCA/60 10.8 -> 12.1
HDGF/60 0.78 -> 0.80
HDGA/60 1.00 -> 1.36
MDCF/60 18.5 -> 23.7
LDCF/60 43.1 -> 55.0
So although roslovic by metrics appears a much greater offemsive weapon a lot of difference is low danger scoring chance related and mid danger as well. Is there any noticable degree beneficial ice tilting either way?
OZS /60 7.6 -> 10.4
NZS/60 14.3 -> 13.3
DZS/60 6.3 -> 7.2
On the flyS/60 -> 43.1 -> 41.9
OZFO/60 14.4 -> 20.3
NZFO/60 18.9 -> 17.6
DZFO/60 14.0 -> 14.3
An extra 50% of faceoff shifts starting in ozone than kaps total definitely helps a slight bit but not huge as clearly both in the fly is a surely more offensively tilted.
So kapanen a bit disadvantage here and better results defensively is fair to guesstimate. Now i’ll pull zone data from edge as it is best context to check another set of zone data for percent of time shifts spent in each zone…finding it is stsrting to help see what they do with these shifts. Like we know where the start shifts is weighted does there total icetime in esch zone follow similar percentages?
Roslovic (NHL edge)
OZtotal% 43.3 (68th percentile)
NZtotal% 17.6 (<50th)
DZtotal% 39.1 (63rd percentile)
So he was showing near 60% ozone starts and spends about 40% in defensive end not losing much on the fly through neutral zone.
Kapanen
OZtotal% 39.8 (<50th)
NZtotal% 17.9 (52nd percentile)
DZtotal% 42.3 (<50th)
He had less ozone faceoff and such in manner difference in total shift zone times not saying too much different.
So relative to each other looks like similar zone shift just dependent on Roslo have advantage where starting more often really.
—-
NHL edge maybe of interest.
Shot heat map qualitative double check
Roslovic 141 total shots
——
A = 46 (32.6%)
->;7(5%) x Directly net front likely rebound
-> 39 (27.7%) x Just a foot or two back in middle
B = 50 (35.5%)
->7 (5%) x Close to crease off to each side at angle thst unless cross crease tap-ins, generally not, goalies save these higher than A++ in my head
-> 43 (30.5%) x Next inner circle back of highest danger but good angle on net to score well placed shot
C = 13 (9.2%) -> mid ice above top.of circles distance
D = 32 (22.7%)
-> 30 (21.3%) x Really bad angle by boards out far each wing
->2 (1.4%) x outside blueline
Kapanen 65 shots total
—–
A = 17 (26%)
-> No goaline right in front chances and 17 just a foot or two back
B = 27 (45%)
6 -> close to crease each side
21 -> next semi circle mid net back from the most dangerous
C = 5 (13.8%) in middle ice above top of circles
D = 13 (20%)
7 (10.7%) -> really bad angle by boards out far each wing
5 (7.7%) -> outside blueline
1(1.5%) -> corner in behind net
3 unnacounted for….
So “likely decent scoring chance for 2 guys with plus power shots” (A+B)
Roslovic -> (32.6% + 35.5% = 68.1%)
Kapanen -> (26%+ 45% = 71%)
Roslovic again qualitative by heat map a bit less perimeter. Again a bit more dangerous offensive threat a bit different way to come up with “danger chances with some context of can guy shoot the puck good enough or does he have a cody ceci level muffin and not fair to compare straight across with harder shooter.
Kapanen has a atep harder shot but i’d say Roslo has accuracy advantage so fairly cancel out maybe some areas sliding in quakity with context.
So both ways checked:
Roslovic appears a bit more dangerous but not massive really and 200 ft wise his defensive lags relative to kapanen they are similar even strength options from overall less nuanced -> playing on line even strength that stands best chance of even or better…
Roslovic better off with stronger defense minded linemates adding scoring threat and a bit better in my memory as controlled posession primary driver than kapanen is. He is also a bit better getting shots in closer to net in most dangerous areas. ***which definitely RNH/RICO/DiCK could use boost from RW more than Podz/Drai need it by a country mile***
Which surely is more balanced net benefit gain on a line with RNH/Henrique/Dickenson than it is with Drai & Podzilla.
Whether the 3rd line is s little less “gritty” than ideal it’s better armed with roslovic than worrying about a couple more hits in way that to me seemed clear before i did this but numbers agree IMO.
I can go through quality of opposition and zoom in on podzilla results with both of them and both of them with and/or without draisaitl but like podkolzin amd kapanen surely have a higher degree of mutual benefit in a way i just don’t see toughness even coming close to overriding logic amd overly setting likes with that as primary driver in amy sensible starting roster line combos.
I failed my College Stats class
Probably my 1 succinct funnier impulse response might have been better option. Just in case:
Unless plan is to run 3rd line like traiditional checking line matching as best it can vs top competition to get some softer ice for a more one dimensional offensive specialized unit -> there is a line where overly saturating itso clearly one sided with lowest potential to at all be a scoring threat might create the perfect storm conditions to reanact a belanger triangle net impact.
Roslo can be more roslo in primary offense driver and that line definitely needs some tangible scoring threat more than it benegits from a couple more hits and even tighter defense.
The lines look promising but I’d swap Frederic with Henrique. Nuge’s line needs more vinegar.
Coach called Dach and Frederic “the Bash Brothers” today – I think they are locked as a winger duo at least for the next bit!