This is the period where we get together and discuss lines and pairings, only to see them shuffled time and again during the playoffs. We don’t know when Leon Draisaitl returns, but he was at practice with Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen recently nd that’s promising on many levels. Please read this.
All numbers five-on-five via Natural Stat Trick. The top line appears set. Connor McDavid with Zach Hyman and Matt Savoie played 89 minutes together, scoring 3.36 GF and 2.02 GA per 60 for a 63 percent goal share (52 expected). I’m loving the GA-60, that’s the kind of suppression this team needs from the top lines.
Draisaitl with Podkolzin and Kapanen played 141 minutes together, with a whopping 5.1 GF-60 and 1.27 GA-60. That’s an 80 percent goal share (52 expected) and while unsustainable, that line could cool off quite a bit and still be money.
The third line at practice yesterday was Adam Henrique and Jack Roslovic on the wings with the Nuge in the middle. Nice. The line barely played together this year (18 minutes) and didn’t score, but did have an expected goal share of 66 percent. Music!
The fourth line is the one getting all of the attention. Colton Dach and Trent Frederic on the wings, and Josh Samanski in the middle. One fears coach Kris Knoblauch will fade Samanski when Jason Dickinson is ready, but there’s plenty to recommend the energy line with Samanski in the middle. In 40 minutes together during the regular season, the line scored 4.46 GF-60 and allowed 1.49 GA-60 for a 75 percent (63 expected) goal share. Regression will come, but that’s a line you can run out there confidently based on a small sample.
I would keep the pairings as they are. Ekholm-Bouchard appear healthy and are quality. Nurse-Murphy is also playing well and there’s no need to mess with success if your top 4-D is humming. Walman-Emberson has some wobble, and maybe you run Stastney out there if it’s bad in Game 1, but Stastney hasn’t played since Lougheed was Premier and that’s a long time ago. Run Connor Ingram when it matters, and it always matters in the postseason.
Ike Howard finished his AHL season at 24-26-50 in 47 games. He’s the guy to watch moving forward, but there are some quality players on the farm (including Damien Carfagna). Alright, let’s hear those lines and pairings ideas!
There is no other worldly team in the playoffs this year. It would be a shame for the McDavid Oilers waste this opportunity.
I agree but the Av’s look a little out of this world as well
It’s been a fantastic season for Ike Howard and kudos to the organization for helping him develop. He got a 20+ game NHL runway – he got to see the speed, skill and structure of the NHL game a learned what he needed to work on – he was then the best rookie in the AHL while developing those aspects of the game.
He’s set up to be a legit middle six player with top 6 upside next season – a similar trajectory to Matt Savoie.
Those numbers for the Dach/Samanski/Frederic line are with it being the third line. With a couple additions to the lineup, that’s the fourth line and can be even more effective.
The forwards have depth. Not only can the bottom six positively impact but there are players out side the lineup that can slide right in and help positively impact.
Dickinson expected to practice today. Presuming so, it will be interesting to see which player is outside the line rushes.
I presume they will do a rotation.
If you put Dickinson and Nuge together you have to move Roslovic off that line.
The Oilers were 25th in the league in power play opportunities this season. Out of the remaining 16 teams in this years playoffs the Oil rank last at 16th. Of course
I have to laugh at the Lougheed comment!
Everyone talks about the poor play by Byfield that let the Oilers back in the series – I’m here to point out that absolute elite and special play made by Evan Bouchard.
Playoff Bouchard is a thing – it’s real and it’s spectacular!
First game of the playoffs last season included Josh Brown in the lineup. Ekholm was not.
This defensive group, in particular with how the 2nd pairing are playing, is much better.
“Stastney hasn’t played since Lougheed was Premier” made me spit up my coffee. Gold Jerry. I wasn’t of this opinion earlier in the season, hell even at the deadline; but I actually think that this team is going into the playoffs is better than last year’s team.
Get at Gudas right off the opening face-off, send a message. Don’t let him or Trouba run around injuring our players.
One more sleep, we got this.
Initiating a war of attrition may not be in the Oilers best interests.
The Ducks have some pretty big boys throughout their lineup.
Patty Dach Supremacy is the war.
We’ll see.
Dach is a big boy at 6’4″ 218
So are these guys:
Kreider – 6’3″ 231
Gauthier – 6’2″ 205
Sennecke – 6’3″ 205
Carlsson – 6’3″ 207
McTavish – 6’1′ 220
Moore – 6’3″ 205
Washe – 6’3″ 216
Poehling 6’2″ 205
Killorn – 6’1″ 205
Johnston – 6’5″ 234
Trouba – 6’3″ 212
Carlson – 6’3″ 216
Gudas – 6’0′ 205
LaCombe 6’3″ 207
Mintyyukov – 6’1″ 207
Moore – 6’3″ 207
Luneau – 6’3″ 210
Helleson – 6’3″ 207
The Ducks have only 1 regular forward under 6 feet…Mikael Granlund at 5’10” and 1 D, Zellweger at 5’10’.
It would seem Verbeek was intent on building a roster suitable for playoff hockey.
The Ducks are pussies and will be exposed. Gudas is huge but I honestly don’t think he has a mean bone in his body. And you don’t run him and Trouba, you go after their stars if they start any monkey business.
Fear never won a game. And who said anything about a war of attrition? Focus, cause you’ll need to agree these two need special watching cause they don’t give a shit who they hurt or how they do it snd prior discipline is like water off a ducks beak for them.
Keep Samanski where he is. Even thought he can’t piss a goal, he’s a revelation
Here here. Let the fourth line sing in the ears of Trouba and Goudas. Make sure they know they will pay. Both are intentional assassins who don’t care about player safety in any way, shape or form. Goudas in particular cant help himself. It’s like he’d hurt anyone in any way to get that last piece of chicken, even at a Sunday family dinner after going to church. I’d want neither on my team but that’s personal and I could see why others might
Lots of positives. I’m only commenting on concerns here.
Walman- has been flying under the radar. He can be so much better. However, he has not been very good and not lived up the potential.
If he continues to wobble, he can be somewhat sheltered. If he comes back into form and starts making smart plays again he can be a difference maker.This is huge for our defence and gives us a spare for top four minutes.
Frederic- his top speed is decent and enough to keep up. However, he doesn’t use it very much. His speed is generally much much slower. He started to pick things up at the end of the season.
He still needs to find another gear and play up to potential.
Every player is gonna pick it up in the playoffs, but these two can really make a difference if they pick up their game, play intense hockey, and do what we know they can do.
I guess we’ll find out if these are actually the lines going forward if they get down early.
I don’t think there is a combination with the exception of the fourth line that I’d like for playoff hockey if McDrai is reunited.
When Dickinson returns I’d scratch Henrique and move Nuge to his wing while leaving the rest of the line up set the way you’ve layed it out.
Yeah, that is the spot for Dickinson. He’s the superior player and PK’r to Henrique. Hopefully Samanski demonstrates his value on the 4th so he doesn’t get tossed for the lesser vet.
This is a good play. Keeps Samanski and his wonderful sense of humor out there. He’s very easy to like with his effective and subtle play
And the bash brothers are turning him into a bully.
Excellent point. His ill humor and nasty side kicks makes for a fun and effective line to watch. Hope they speak whispers of love into the ears of Gudas and Trouba
It appears that after spending the entire season experimenting with line combinations, Knoblach is finally set on running the best lines possible. I hope it lasts!
Knoblauch always dials it in the last month of the season and playoffs. Woukd be very interesting to one day find out why he does it.
i hope he will also be able to resist loading up McDrai this playoffs as the two are much better apart this year. Savoie McDavid and Podz Drai Kapanen is as good as it gets. I also am guessing he is working with the analytics team a lot more as these are basically the optimal lines based on the data we have. Go Knob!
I like a loaded burger or sub. Not loading up 97/29, unless you got to break the glass and there’s an emergency so KK needs to stop that, especially 5 minutes into the game
Mcdrai is always a great option, especially if down a goal or two
Hopefully we will continue with 4 lines of great defense which took us a long way last year
If they’re all healthy, it looks pretty scary. More speed than past years to my eye, and a better top 4 on the back end. This is exactly the role I was hoping to see Henrique in now (I know I’m the only one still lighting a candle for him at this point). That being said, if Dickinson can go tomorrow, Henrique probably comes out for me, and Dickinson centers Nuge and Roslovic. That’s a third line that should mash its matchup in either barn.
LFG!!!
Do you mean, a better top 4 in the bottom 6?
And actually, I thought I was the only one with a Henrique candle burning… make a wish!
On the defence.
Another for Team Henry!
Henrique is easy to like. He’s that guy who brings the intangibles, smarts and experience, and sadly his body isn’t cooperating as much
You just stole my comment, by an eyelash😅👍
I like a banger on each line… it will be unpopular but:
Podkolzin Draisaitl Roslovic
Henrique Nuge Frederic
Dach Dickinson Kapanen
It assumes Dick’s back in, Freddy got fingered on his contract, and Kapanen has slowed considerably and may have an ailment. I gave the boost in offence to the 2nd line. In some ways I can also see Samanski playing wing, but it won’t be in game 1, especially after Dach’s Gordie Howe Hat Trick.
Can’t Roslovic hit? He’s 6’2 200 so you’d think a bit of playoff pummeling would be nice
The lines look promising but I’d swap Frederic with Henrique. Nuge’s line needs more vinegar.