We’re almost through the AHL season, and it’s a good time to look at some splits for performing Bakersfield Condors. We’ll do a lot of this during the spring, it’s not like the draft will hold much interest for fans. Of course the major story is Edmonton’s playoff run, and there are many Condors flying high on the current NHL roster.
Matt Savoie (82, 18-19-37) is the ultimate El Condor Pasa these days. He spent last year and one game this year in Bakersfield, and graduated to the Oilers with a flourish. Max Jones (21, 3-2-5) has enjoyed a resurgence at the NHL level late this season, and I do wonder if this is his ‘Maroon 5’ spike that allows him a real NHL career. It happened for Patrick Maroon at about the same age.
Ike Howard (29, 2-3-5) and Josh Samanski (24, 2-2-4) are likely to enjoy solid to excellent futures, and I also hold out hope for Alec Regula (29, 0-3-3) and Quinn Hutson (4, 1-0-1). Connor Clattenburg (5, 1-0-1) and Roby Jarventie (3, 0-0-0) will need a little luck, and Riley Stillman (4, 0-0-0) is a name we could see in Edmonton this postseason when injuries hit the blue. All numbers quoted so far are NHL totals, let’s run some AHL splits for a few forwards.
IKE HOWARD
- First Half: 17, 10-13-23 (1.35 pts-game) 23-10 (70 pct) EV goal share
- 2nd Half: 29, 13-12-25 (0.86 pts-game), 20-32 (38 pct) EV goal share
The offense has held pretty well in the second half, but Howard (like most Condors) has had a tougher time in even-strength outscoring. He scored 8-9-17 at even strength in both halves, telling us special teams weren’t as big a factor as one might think. Ironically, the intel available to me suggests Howard has improved in important defensive areas (effort, execution) in the second half of the season. We’ll see, but there are good arrows.
JOSH SAMANSKI
- First Half: 39, 7-21-28 (.717) 32-25 (56 pct) EV goal share
- 2nd Half: 6, 1-2-3 (.500) 3-4 (43 pct) EV goal share
He was the best center in Bakersfield, and a strong candidate for the best player full stop when a member of the Condors this season. His ability to adapt quickly to the AHL and then NHL shows a terrific aptitude and his two-way play is just naturally excellent. The question will be offense, he scored 7-19-26 at evens in Bakersfield this year. If there’s a way for him to elevate his offense even a little (scored 1.00 five-on-five points-60 this season in Edmonton) we’re looking at a player who could play No. 3 center in the NHL for years. Exceptional signing.
QUINN HUTSON
- First Half: 36, 24-15-39 (1.08), 26-15 (65 pct) EV goal share
- 2nd Half: 30, 6-18-24 (0.80), 17-27 (39 pct) EV goal share
The goal share suffered by most players is evident in Hutson’s player card. He remained a solid offensive contributor, but the team was bleeding goals in the second half for reasons. He is a solid NHL prospect, I worry about his foot speed (33.22 kph max speed, NHL average is 35.68) most of all. Howard is 85th percentile, and Samanski is 35 kph. Below average, but in the range of acceptable. Hutson’s boots could cost him.
ROBY JARVENTIE
- First Half: 35, 12-13-25 (0.71); 26-20 (57 pct) EV goal share
- Second Half: 25, 11-11-22 (0.88); 19-18 (51 pct) EV goal share
I wanted to include Jarventie in this section of splits because he is that rare player in Bakersfield this season who actually held serve in the second half. I don’t think the organization views him as a strong future option, but you could make the case he earned an earlier recall and more Edmonton playing time based on this player card. Jarventie has size, too. His max speed is 33.68 according to NHL Edge, meaning he’s another boots worry.
I have an article about the Condors defense and goaltending going up tomorrow at The Athletic, some of the numbers are astounding. Stay tuned. Enjoy the day. Hurry Monday night!
Marjala zone entires on a 2 on 2, dishes to Howard wide, heads to the net and tips home the Howard shot, 2-2.
Howard with some nice hands and he tips home a Leppanen wrister after the Condors cycled around for a while.
1-1 in the 2nd.
Stuuuuu, big save on a partial break early on. Pens/Oilers final anyone?
Oh
both would be lucky but i’m here for it.
He saved two breakaways. But the Penguins can’t buy a shot on net. Now 3-1 with a couple minutes left.
He also got beat five hole on a screened shot, and then twice when square to the shot to go down 3-1.
Goals saved above expected -1 to -1.2 by NST and Moneypuck, S% .850.
Stu had a solid game, the rest of the Pens not so much. Philly did a good job clogging them up so they couldn’t gain the zone. I was surprised when I looked at NST that the expected goals against weren’t higher since Philly had at least 4 breakaways/partial breaks that Stu stopped. Hopefully the Pens figure out a few ways to generate more chances & offence for Monday.
He had a quintessential Skinner game. He made some good stops. I don’t think he did anything spectacular on those breakaways, yet he made the stops. But he allowed a goal from the top of the circle at a critical point in the game. No tip. No screen. Good shot, but he needs to make the save. If it was the Oilers, we probably win the game 4-3 because the Pens generated almost no offence. I’ll be shocked if he starts the next game.
Yah saw the 3rd goal and cringed. That needs to be a save. I have a soft spot for him and hope he finds his place. Wasn’t here
Let’s pass on Walstedt a franchise goalie and instead pick Bourgault. Whoever passed on Walstedt deserves to be publicly flogged at city hall.
The amount of times they should have just let the computer pick is absurd.
Wyatt Johnson sucks
this does anger me but i try not to linger.
based on pre-cap record Ken passing on a high pick goalie was predictable. and (once again) behind the times.
But but but he was never gonna be ready during the Mcdavid era.
The number of bad decisions because they were worried that Connor would leave them is the most likely reason that Connor does actually leave them, if he does.
that doesn’t appear to to be the reason as the intel is they would have taken Cossa if he was there – they were not against taking a goalie but they didn’t like Walstedt – something in their scouting/meetings/diligence.
They appear to have been wrong in their analysis.
Move on. Its been 5 years.
He won 1 game where the Dallas offense could be best described as ‘coughing baby’.
Deboer would have had Otter shot. Oilers broke him just like they broke Markstrom.
These are some notably worse players taken ahead of Wallstedt
4-0 Minnesota, in Dallas
5-1 now. 10 penalties at the last count. Refs forgot to throw away their whistles!
First round every year
Confused sorry
I”ve been pondering if when Dickinson comes back would you put him at third line centre and move the Nuge to left wing and sit Henrique ??
I sure like that fourth line with Samanski on it .That is a big and mobile line which brings many things to the game that Henrique cant provide.
What say you folks ?
I think MANY have been pondering Henrique out if/once both Drai and Dickinson are in but I question if the coach is pondering it…..
I don’t think they take Henrique out. Im guessing it would be Dach and they swap him for Samanski when they want a different look. Tough call, I like Rico at 4W and PK
Would be flabbergasted if Dach didn’t play game 1.
Me too, I mean when Dickinson comes back
Same though – at this point, if Dach plays anywhere near how he has, I don’t think he comes out – he would play over Samanski (and likely Rico and maybe even Kap) – of course, he could fall off a cliff too……
Lewandowski signs his ATO to join the Condors and will make his debut tonight. Come on Chaulk, lets see the Lew Nicholl Laf kid line!
Nichlll and Lafrenière have been playing together – this could happen.
Ingram is in a contract year he came close to being banished and sent to the gulags in Siberia. This partnership is going to be beneficial for the Oilers and Ingram personally. Oilers will lock it down clog up the middle it wouldn’t surprise me if we allow 3 goals in the 2 game homestead. Ingram for Conn Smythe Booook it……… Remember you heard first from Al Hamilton to Evan Bouchard. Two more sleeps before the Oilers flip the switch.
What about Hamilton?
People keep bringing up kapanen drop off. And miss whwt about RNH in general seems like bigger problem in my mind.
I think where issue has been recently is using roslovic and kapanen similar to “mcdavid lite” mcleod versions on breakouts.
Ie trying to skate puck into offensive zone using same tactics and it clearly not being a good idea at actually generating any serious offensive threats that way. Like kapanen does not have the greatest seeming offensive awareness and once he speeds in zone like that it’s not generating much. Honestly roslovic isn’t really either. I think the RW offense problem recently is bad tactics related as much as anything.
But let’s try to take a complete look at hopkins here.
Naturalstattrick 5×5
——
944 min
13:16 min/g, CF 49.3%, SF 51.9%, GF 44.9%**, GFx 51.5%, HDCF 54.9%, HDGF 47.8%,
Not great first pass considering heavy mcdavid minutes starting a lot more shifts either in ozone or shifting into it.
NHL edge
——
Offensive zone 46% (94th percentile)
Defensive zone 37.7% (79th percentile)
Max speed 22.7 (76th percentile)
22+ mph bursts: 3 (66th percentile)
20-22 mph bursts 60 (<50th percentile)
18-20 mph bursts 376 (58th percentile)
Ozone starts: 39% (80th percentile)
Nzone starts: 32% (<50th)
Dzone starts: 29% (71st percentile)
Not blowing doors off but understandable as generally not carrying puck much or dump ins.
PUCKIQ
——
ELITE 36.8%, CF 47.5%, GF 43.3%
MID 35.1%, CF 51.5%, GF 46.7%
GRIT 28%, CF 49.5%, GF 48%
This is ugly. He’s getting crushed in elite minutes and not even winning against grits.
AI query (can be some errors obviously in letting bot parse data from wherever)
——
With mcdavid (482 min)
CF 57.2%, SF 55.8%, GF 48.9%, GFx 58.4%, HDcf/ca 14.8/10.1, HDGF 46.5%, 1.84 p/60
W/O Mcdavid (549 min)
CF 48.2%, SF 47.9%, GF 39.0%**, GFx 46.5%, HDcf/ca 9.1/11.4, HDGF 42.1%, 1.08 p/60
***ooof that’s ugly.****….hold my beer this next step probably worse.
Mcdavid w/o RNH & Drai (443 min)
CF 54.1%, SF 53.2%, GF 49.8%, GFx 54.9%, HDcf/ca 13.5/12.4, HDGF 47.6%, 2.88 p/60
* mcdavid is 3.12 p/60 with RNH.
So the with mcdavid underlying look better than either without (if you remove nuclear weapon of drai & mcdavid)…but it’s not suprising savoie is eating his lunch thank gord for that. Issue though is how to utilize RNH anywhere else for stronger line depth if he actually might be big factor in poor results….
So to me the biggest forward concern is where to play RNH? I don’t think anything in those above numbers disagrees with this.
Lets look at lines a bit closer see if anything shines through…
Moneypuck RNH line query
——-
RNH Mcdavid Hyman
397 min, SF 52.1%, GF 48.9%, GFx 57.7%, G/60 3.48
RNH Mcdavid Magniapane
80.4 min, SF 54.7%, GF 50%, GFx 50.7%, 2.24 G/60
Hyman RNH Roslovic
57.1 min, SF 47.5%, GF 80%, GFx 42.2%, 4.20 G/60
Podkolzin RNH Roslovic
30.3 min, SF 52.5%, GF 0%, GFx 50%, 0.0 g/60
Podkolzin RNH Kapanen
25.1 min, SF 62.8%, GF 50%, GFx 50%, 2.39 g/60
***Podz and kapanen****
Magniapane RNH Roslovic
23.6 min, SF 44.4%, GF 0%, GFx 30%, 0 g/60
RnH Drai Roslovic
18.5 min, SF 40%, GF 100%, GFx 47.4%, 3.23 G/60
Magniapane RNH Savoie
17.3 min, SF 45.2%, GF 0%, GFx 77.8%
RNH Dickenson Roslovic
16.2 min, SF 54.8%, GF 50%, GFx 38.2%, 7.42 G/60
***maybe this 3rd line****
Thoughts?
Podkolzin and kapanen even in limited minutes far and away hold up as best line option (and their minutes with drai are nuts impressive)
If that holds up true what kimd of line could you make with drai out of what is left?
Dach drai frederic?
Samanski drai roslovic?
Dach drai roslovic?
I don’t but it would be brilliant if they actually found something that worked well with drai + extras.
Then
You have hernique/dickenson/lazar and 2 of dach/frederic/samanski/roslovic
For the 4th line.
Likely they run that
Rnh dickenson roslovic 3rd line
And hopefully at least try
Podz drai kap when drai is back.
I would love to fit lazar in on 4th line tactically as strong RH center for draws is bonus but man they sure do have options.
This is definitely most depth they’ve ever had upfront.
Having trouble getting pumped? Break out the goosebumps. Man I miss Leon. Let’s not forget he is sometimes our best playoff guy. Let’s gooooooo
https://youtu.be/GJV6pBtB7R4?si=3iBqESHB4oZasR0L
Terrific thanks!
Snap out of it the regular season means squat we have a veteran team that is relatively young. I like the fact we are underdogs. We are going to win our 6th Cup and a week later.Connor will sign a 7 year contract Leon-Connor will be our future G.M and Coach.
Connor can’t sign that until July 1, 2027.
Watching the first playoff game today I am reminded that the regular season is faux hockey. Or semi-faux hockey.
This is hockey.
Also a reminder that if you are a Defenceman…in the playoffs….in your own zone….God help you
I really liked the way they came out and stomped the Canucks. That’s a game old versions of the Oil would have sharted the bed. It was business-like, and a complete beating. I think that bodes well for how they will prepare for the Ducks. Should be a great series, and hopefully nobody is permitted to use their hands to to pry open the 5 hole this time.
Possibly the most triggering phrase when referring to the Oilers for me, personally. That event still makes me irrationally angry and go on a rant to a poor unsuspecting family member or friend about once a year.
Hahahaha. Ughhh. Me too. I vividly recall the relief of seeing him grab the pads with his hands. It was 100% not a fair goal. Until it was! A part of me died that day.
I always dismissed notions of favouritism before that event
Seeing it live and realizing that these human refs are on the phone with humans in Toronto.
A room that has the proven biased, interfering and influential Colin Campbell in it.
I look forward to it. It’s nice to have a 2nd still and I’m curious what position they end up picking. Obviously depends who’s available but I think a defenceman is the likely bet. I’ll be waiting to see what players you like LT. Somewhere around the 64th pick.
Seconded. I’ve followed the draft for about three decades now, regardless of the Oilers’ playoff fortunes. (Just don’t expect any Bob McKenzie-esque pearls of wisdom from this quarter.)
If they make that 2nd-round pick as scheduled, it will be only their third such selection this decade (Vinni in ’24, Akey in ’23).
I’ve been looking at mock drafts lately, as I’m wont to do this time of year. Those are the two I look at the most often since they actually keep current with the standings:
Tankathon has us taking small RHD Axel Elofsson at #52 and giant goaler Filip Ruzicka (who I’ve mentioned here before) at #84.
Lines.com has Nicholl’s London teammate LC Braidy Wassilyn at #52 and LC Vikton Fyodorov at #84.
I too think a D is getting taken with one of their top two picks. I would guess a RHD since the only such prospects the Oilers have are Akey and Sundin, and the latter needs to be signed by June 1.
Awesome! I will check them out. Thanks.
I was looking at Tomas Galvas LH Dman out of Czechia. Smaller but good defence, puck moving. Elite had him at 70 in the consolidated top 100.
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/738866/tomas-galvas
And would love to hear what you think about Ethan MacKenzie Dman from the Oil kings ranked 82 https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/618968/ethan-mackenzie
I’m just thankful Bowman was able to restock the cupboards, and that there’s material potential with the additions.
Dach, Samanski, Howard are actual hockey players, not just a hope in the wind. I believe he can continue adding and finding gems.
This may be the only reason McDavid stays. Savoie and Podz are making an impact and there’s actual talent in the farm.
The Leafs have no picks or prospects, and Bowman has insured the Oilers don’t fall into that group. He may not be perfect is his trades and contracts, but Bowman has kept this team’s window open for a few more years.
If Drai plays from game 1 the Oilers win in game 5.
Personally if everyone is available I would luv to see these lines.
Savoie/McD/Hyman
pods/Drai/Roslovic
Nuge/Dickenson/Kappy ( I think this line would be way harder to play against with Kappy than Roslovic on it, also if Nuge gets going they could score a few)
Dach/Samanski/Freddy. ( Fast, big, hit lots and showed they can score)
Just me but Slow Henrique sits as does Lazar.
That’s exactly how I think it goes. Leon is all rested up it’s time for him to take some weight off Connor.
Darnell Nurse has really turned it around playing with Murphy.
If that second pairing performs, it’s a big leap compared to the teams of the last couple years.
More of a leap backward.
Nurse is a bit more able to play like nurse like seeing him skate puck out of zone on occassion and even slightly more pinch attempts because they finally got an actual big tough RH shiudown dman to play him with…
Like it’s insane it took this lomg and so many GM’s before prioritizing partner on 2nd pair.
Like russel off handed -> ethan bear -> codi ceci -> ??? -> murphy.
Top 4 d minutes….huge reoccuring themed hole.
This is a huge point – Nurse’s play in the playoffs.
Even since the sweep by Winnipeg, Nurse has regressed the playoffs each and every season (from his play in the regular season). Even in his “good regular seasons”, he’s been poor in the playoffs.
Nurse keeping his recent level of play in the playoffs would be, will be, massive.
To put Savoie’s meteoric rise into context, his EV points per 60 of 2.61 since the Olympic break is better than any EV scoring season RNH has had. Credit to Blue Bullet on twitter for the number.
That is first line winger production.
It’s a small sample, but coupled with his quality defensive game, Savoie could be special indeed.
I would argue having a very good two way winger for the 97 line is a huge asset.
Some may say that is a dime a dozen, easily replaceable production.
boots. those damnable boots.
I should also mention that Sam Poulin has really come on and played well in the last 6-8 weeks. Has really stepped up the offence and overall game (he kills penalties) with a real agitator skill with the offence a bit decimated here and there.
He’ll be a Group VI UFA this off-season unfortunately.
Have you noticed a theme yet Jones-Poulin-Dach were all throw-ins on trades. All 3 are big bodied skilled bottom 6ers throw in Samanski and that makes four hell throw in Jarventie that makes five 200 plus forwards. I do think Howard has trade value and will be traded at the draft as a sweetener to dump one of our bad contracts or a straight trade for a player with different skills
Different players, but I see Ike getting the Savoie treatment next year.
Unless Oil have another drunk July.
Stan Bowman has made a concerted effort to introduce young skill to the organization and there is little doubt he sees the massive value of Howard with two years left on his ELC (exactly where Savoie was coming in to this season). Sure, if a team gives great value for Howard, Bowman may trade him but he won’t be looking to, of that I’m confident.
Wasn’t McDavid involved in bringing Howard here, he’s not being traded.
How was McDavid involved in bringing Howard to Edmonton??
“While McDavid wasn’t the architect of the deal, he was a major selling point. Upon joining, Howard expressed immense excitement about the “unreal opportunity” to potentially play on a wing alongside McDavid or Leon Draisaitl”.
For a retool year our forward depth is pretty good. Wish we had another top 6 winger but it is what it is
Realizing you aren’t a huge Bowman fan, he has done an awful lot of bringing in better hockey players (young and vets) and bringing much better balance. Not perfect, but while they could use a top 6 winger as said, in a year and a half or so he’s filled holes that have been a problem for years
I like the look of this team regardless of this year’s outcome, and I imagine he’s aware of what’s still missing and will keep working. He has excess forwards and a lack of D depth, to me it seems there will be moves using some of the pieces. I also love that he can make trades that aren’t completely obvious, and doesn’t get hosed in them as I see it
It’s hard to bring in an established top six winger when they get zero PP time. I think it’s better to bring in young, skilled tenacious wingers like Podkolzin with upside who help by simply keeping the play alive in the ozone.
I didn’t see Hutson’s foot speed being a detriment to his ability to impact the play. Would like to see him get more reps in the NHL next season.
I see a player with good hands who thinks the game at a high level. From what I’ve seen, he’s able to leverage his smarts into strong positioning on either side of the puck. Good things generally seem to follow.
Yep.
Pisani but a better shooter and without Crohn’s, hopefully.
Pisani 6’1 205
Hutson 5’11 176
I kind of feel sorry for Hutson. To me if you are undersized you have to be a plus skater or be elite offensively preferably both. Or be a psycho like Marchand with some skill. QH being none of those, I don’t see how he helps a team like the Oilers. Won’t crack the top 6, maybe a 3rd liner? But there is stiff comp now for the bottom 6
I suspect that 176 will wind up closer to 195 and there won’t be anything to worry about.
Maybe, but he’s 24 better get after it
There’s only so many seats at the adult table. No way they start lowering significantly the PP minutes for Nuge and Hyman. Hutson-Howard kinda need real PP minutes neither one is a so called energy forward. With the emergence of Podkolzin-Samanski-Savoie lowers the odds Howard-Hutson getting a fair shake in a position to succeed. I wish we would do what Sather did so brilliantly with the old Pump and Dump. I do believe SB is on board with this philosophy it’s a young K.K that I wonder about. If Howard would have been given PP time and fellow G.M’s seen that one timer beat NHL calibre goalies his value would have doubled or even tripled.
Using PP 2 more would be smart, engage the group.
I would encourage you to take a look at the ages of Hyman and Nuge and the age of Howard and also look at Hyman being moved of the PP in favour of Perry during last year’s playoffs (likely as a minute mitigator).
Howard has 2-years left on his ELC and he will have plenty of opportunity for the PP going forward if he proves worthy (which he will).
Howard will come to camp next season off a wonderful rookie pro season, getting his feet wet at the NHL level, developing and prospering at the AHL level and he’ll be ready to show he’s ready to impact.
Should be a great value contract for the next number of years.
Which could also make him good trade bait.
He’s getting traded his agent will quietly ask to be moved and will even find the best destination that will fit his game. Time is ticking you only have so much time to make the big bucks. 3/4 of his playing mates on the national development program many who are younger are putting up life changing numbers. If we had Hobey Baker Caulfield he would have never developed into a 50 goal man playing 4th line scrub minutes.
1) Pure speculation based on nothing factual.
2) Time is ticking, lol – he just finished year one of a three year ELC. He can’t even re-sign until July 2027 for a contract that kicks in 2028.
3) Making more money – Oilers have set him up to do just that by allowing him to develop his game in the proper league as a rookie pro and not rushing him to the NHL potentially lowering his ceiling. He’s now a better player and should impact more in the years before he signs.
4) Every time Caufield is mentioned as a comparable to Howard is shows just how uninformed one is with respect to these player and the unreasonableness of the exceptions.
More value to the Oilers than in trade value.
I’m starting to feel a bit more optimistic about this team for 2026 playoffs. Sabers went from looking like another lost seasons to one of top teams once they started getting some saves. They got a bigger rebound in net, but it is hard to appreciate the impact of weak goals have on a team, to work so hard to play right way and then goalie can’t make a save.
I also think this team suffered more from lack of motivation early on than we recognize. Gosh, I only watched the games and had less interest in watching this team in the first 3/4 of the season than even in the decade of darkness. I can’t imagine what it was like for the players who play the game and put body on the line.
It will come down to health, as always. Leo hurt in 2024 and Hyman and Matias E last year really hurt. I also think the subtraction of Kane and Perry from roster will help, the former for his lack of 2 way play and the latter for his slow boots. They felt like boat anchors to two separate lines at times against top teams.
Lets not forget Nuge breaking his wrist at the end of the WCF, a series in which he was th best skater, on either team, as 2C.
SB should be getting more love for the signing and emergence of Samanski. Having a solid two-way 3C is huge, with CMD and Leo as 1C and 2C it is arguably biggest need up-front. Signing a player that can fill 3C in short terms also means turning McLeod into Savoie and O’Reilly into Howard is great roster building in my humble opinion (i.e., Samanski fills 3C role that each of these players would occupy).
LT, yeah Jones might be Maroon 2.0 for Oilers, but feel more confident that they have a chance at a Maroon 2.0 given it seems like there is a chance that any one of Dach, Jarventie and Jones might emerge as a top 6 winder option in the next year plus. This is especially true given CMD and Leo can lift up wingers and it is hard to predict who finds chemistry.
Question for the class: if Samanski is 3C next year, where does Nuge play? 3LW?
If it’s Hyman and Savoie with 97. Podz with Drai and… Howard? Is RNH in the top 6 next year still?
In the back half of the season, RNH no longer looked like a top 6 calibre player. Whenever the Oilers were getting caved in by the other team in their own zone, almost always RNH was on the ice. Too slow and too soft on the puck.
He may injured or this may be the start of his decline phase, and by this time next year, he’s going to be a bottom 6 winger, who used a lot on special teams.
I like 3LW for Nuge. of course he’d be in and out of the top six as needed.
If Dach can turn out to be a useful player for this org over the next number of years, be it an energy fourth liner or maybe a low end 3rd line power forward, that 1st round pick will have turned out to be well spent even if they don’t re-sign Dickinson (and Samanski may allow them to no spend the money there unless Jason takes a big pay cut and discount t market). Divesting of Mang’s full cap hit for next year is also part of that value.
One day at a time with Dach (and we’ve seen many players show well as Oilers but eventually settle in to their historical inconsistencies – Kap, Jones, etc.) but damn has he far exceeded my expectations. I opined that he was an AHL acquisition and tweener unless/until he shows otherwise. Well, he’s showed otherwise and proven me wrong already.
I’m pretty sold on Dach already. At minimum he is an excellent fourth liner. He, rather than Jones, is the Pat Maroon comp IMO.
Patty Dach Supremacy
Would you give Dach some time with Drai next year to see if they mesh if they don’t re sign Kapanen?
Well, not yet – maybe he’s the next Podz but I don’t think we are quite there yet, are we?
Dach reminds me a bit of Klim Kostin and I say that in a good way
Dach reminds me of Podz. Solid enough in his own zone and with his execution of the the Oilers systems to be given a regular shift. Knows his job is to hammer the opposition defenders on the forecheck and does so consistently. I like him a lot.
Lets hope his career is more than a couple of 5-7 game heaters because, there than that, Kostin was a replacement level NHL player and is currently a replacement level KHL player.
I was not high on Dach as part of that trade.
I was misinformed.
I think I was more uninformed as opposed to misinformed. I formulated an opinion based on assumptions and presumptions.
I wonder why we don’t talk more about Sam Poulin, who has 21 goals in the AHL this season and has an all around game, not to mention he’s 6’2 227 lbs. There I talked about him.
Same reason we arent upset that Lavoie has put up 55 points in 44 AHL games in Henderson. Hes 25. Maybe he can fill in on the 4th line if we need but I’m guessing he’s a tweener
There’s more to Poulin’s game than just a big shot.
Fair, I haven’t watched hin
I hope the GM re signs him to a one year contract for next season, as Poulin is a UFA for next year.
Could be useful on the 3rd or 4th lines and a handy player to have in Bakersfield.
Ha – I made a post about him a little bit ago without having seen this.
He was pretty mediocre of the first few months as a Condor but has come on the last month or so, really strong – agitator, 2-way player.
He’s a Group 6 UFA and I presume he’ll move on given the depth chart of forwards in Edmonton.
They should give him a contract and watch him work his way into the depth chart of forwards in Edmonton. The trend in Edmonton appears to be moving towards size & skill.
Of course the exception might be Matt Savoie who obviously isn’t a one trick poney.
————-
I think Howard and Samanski are full time Oilers next season – give them opportunity and leash in replacement of Roslovic and Dickinson and the team saves apx $7M or so,
I do think Regula can play in the NHL – he’s by far the Condors best d-man since he re-assignment and has had some dominant games – some inconsistency in his game though. With Emberson locked in to 3RD here (and unlikely to press up materially), he may not get the reps in this org he needs.
Hutson has come back to life in the AHL. I’m still not sure he’s more than a tweener but there is a chance he can have a bottom six NHL career but we may be looking at James Hamlin type here.
I’m not sure there is a future for Jarventie as an Oiler. I think he can play in the NHL but this org doesn’t seem to agree, or value others over him. He’s an RFA, I presume they qualify him but I think he could be a small piece in a draft trade (similar with Regula).
Clattenburg doesn’t need luck, he needs to commit to working on developing in the areas he is not NHL level as opposed to continuing run around and fight. A tale of two seasons for Clatt – an amazing first half exceeding all expectations, getting a call-up and playing enough hockey while in the NHL to get shifts and impact physically. Then, upon re-assignment, just a complete bust, a refusal to do what his coach asked and “play hockey” to develop, got himself hurt for term, came back, more of the same, demoted to 4LW behind ECHL call-ups and hurt again.
Clatt can play in the NHL, if he commits to playing hockey, getting puck touches, and working on certain hockey skills that are needed to play in the NHL. You can’t play in the NHL if you can’t win a high d-zone board battle and get a puck out or take a pass in transition and make the next play at pace, for example.
Considering Roslovic and Dickinson currently total $2.6 million in cap hit and Howard and Samanski total $1.9 million, how exactly are you saving $7 million or so?
In order to save that amount, new deals for Roslovic and Dickinson would have to add up to $9 million.
Do you think anyone would pay them that considering both will be in their 30’s?
Isn’t the saving of cap space to be used for signing 20 goal scores like say Roslovic? And since the cap is jumping up to $95M next year why so anxious to get rid of Jack?
I’m not anxious to get rid of Roslovic, I’m just VERY hestitatnt to pay him $5MM for term which is likely what he’s looking for for. I think that Howard, given similar deployment, can replicate at least a material portion of that production (they are very similar stylistic players to boot) and that cap savings can be used elsewhere, as needed.
What if Howard can’t replicate at least a material portion of Roslovic’s production given similar deployment?
What if he can?
If not, we still have the player that management spent the saved $3MM-$4MM on and they look to find a middle six scoring winger in-season or some one from Bako pops.
We are talking 21 goals and 36 points here – this isn’t crazy prediction.
Ignoring the below from you know who… which in completely oblivious tonthat you are referencing next year contracts (as you noted with “full time next year”)
I agree and i dont want either brought back. Roslovic is decent but we cant hand out the 4 mil he will get. Oil need to get a little younger and also provide some opportunity for the couple young guys.
Out:
Henrique
Dickinson
Roslovic
Janmark (trade?)
In:
Samanski (4c-3c)
Dach full time
Howard (hopefully middle 6)
They need to get younger with some youth
At C they would have McD Drai Samanski. They would be pretty thin. ‘Maybe’ Nuge can play 3C, but if anyone gets hurt, who do they have to step in? They will probably keep Lazar for RS C, but they also don’t seem to prefer him over others
It will be interesting to see what Bowman does with so many forwards that could probably play
Interesting to see the numbers on Hutson regarding speed. I thought he looked quite good in his limited showing — really confident when it came to making plays. I didn’t perceive him as being slow; in fact, I thought he was quite effective in contesting pucks. The board battle leading to his first goal comes to mind.
Howard will be up next year. He ought to be stapled to Nuge.
Howard should be stapled to Draisaitl’s backhand.
He’ll probably be stapled to the bench.
Can you imagine all of Savoie, Ike, and Drai being constant threats for the one-timer? Ike isn’t there yet but the two young’uns could support goal scoring in ways that are stylistically different from both Nuge and Hyman, while maintaining team tempo and speed.
Oil offense suddenly less predictable.
Hutson knows where to be, plays smart,
and can shoot.
All of these things lower the urgency of need for top end speed.
I wanted to jump in early here after reading all the confidence yesterday that the Oil will blow the Ducks out of the rink. Please do not overlook the Ducks. Any NHL team on any given day or week can go on a tear. I hope the Oilers do not think all they need to do is show up. This team has proven over and over they are happy to shoot themselves in the foot.
https://www.reddit.com/r/trailerparkboys/comments/14dkblz/rtrailerparkboys_confidence_check/
C’mon, meanashell11, bring it back up to a hundred. 💯 Quit fookin’ around here. 🙂
Oilers in 4.
The season series was much closer than it appears on first blush.
In the 1st game in January which the Oilers won 7- 4 at home, the Oilers got 3 goals from Ekholm, 1 from Nurse and another from Statsney. Not likely repeatable.
The Oilers led 5-2 late in the second period but the Ducks scored twice to close the gap to 5-4 late in the 3rd however the Oilers scored 2 EN goals.
SOG – ANA 41 / EDM 32
PP – ANA 3/4 / 1/3
HITS – ANA 25 / EDM 13
Giveaways – ANA 14 / EDM 19
Takeaways – ANA 6 / EDM 6
A game in January isn’t going to give any credible info in regards to a playoff game in late April.
Absolutely it’s a new season, not only for the Oilers but also for the Ducks. I suggest the Oilers better watch out for the Ducks or they might be embarrassed.
So which date have you chosen as being credible?
Is it just 1 day, a week or a month?
Literally none of the regular season play against each other matters, just like the Kings home record last season or their easy schedule down the stretch this season.
Oilers are playoff tested, the Ducks are not.
The experience and reinforcements should lead to a Oilers victory, Ducks probably won’t be swept but they’ll be in real tough to pull out the series win.
Credible dates, the last 5 or 6 years of the Oilers building their playoff reputation while the Ducks simply just built up to get there. History suggests they have more losing and growing to do in the post season. Next year I’ll entertain them being a more serious threat, if they get back to the playoffs.
The Sharks with Celebrini most likely leaps them.
In the second game in February which the Ducks won 6-5, once again they came from behind but won this time.
The Oilers had a 4-2 lead at the end of the second period but the Ducks scored 4 goals in the third to take the win.
SOG – ANA 29 / EDM 27
PP – ANA 1/5 / EDM 1/2
HITS – ANA 23 / EDM 21
Giveaways – ANA 24 / EDM 15
Takeaways – ANA 8 / EDM 5
In the most recent March game, the Oilers once again took a 3-0 third period lead but once again the Ducks came back to make it 3-2 with Hyman scoring an late EN goal.
SOG – ANA 33 / EDM 34
PP – ANA 0/3 / EDM 0/3
HITS – ANA 15 / EDM 22
Giveaways – ANA 11 / EDM 16
Takeaways – ANA 6 / EDM 1
So the Oilers had a 3-goal lead, 3-goal lead and 2-goal led in each of the games.
Perhaps what isn’t “repeatable” is the Ducks coming back from multi-goal deficits against a team playing playoff hockey or having a 3 PP advantage (as they did in the only game they won)?
HH is still scratching his head over how the Kings didn’t win the cup last year after winning so many games at home in the regular season.
Nothing like ignoring a little thing like score effect when championing your stats.
I didn’t want to spend much time refuting you, for obvious reasons, so I am letting chatgpt do the work.
Copied and pasted:
Edmonton Oilers could dominate the Anaheim Ducks:
Edmonton’s offense is on another level. With stars like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, the Oilers have recently averaged over 3.5 goals per game, while Anaheim has hovered closer to 2.5 goals per game—a full goal difference that’s huge in playoff hockey.
On special teams, the gap gets even wider. Edmonton’s power play has been operating at 25–30% efficiency, among the league’s best, while Anaheim’s penalty kill has often sat below 75%, meaning the Ducks are especially vulnerable when shorthanded.
If that scoring edge and special-teams mismatch hold, it creates a scenario where Edmonton can control every game—exactly the kind of imbalance that makes a sweep plausible.
How about Grok?
“Yes, the Anaheim Ducks can absolutely beat the Edmonton Oilers in the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup Playoffs first round—it’s a best-of-7 series that starts Monday, April 20, 2026, with the Oilers holding home-ice advantage (as the No. 2 seed in the Pacific Division)
Anaheim actually had more wins, but Edmonton edged them out on points (likely due to more overtime losses). They split the season series in a way that shows competitiveness: Edmonton won both home games convincingly (7-4 and 4-2), while Anaheim took the game in Honda Center (6-5).
This isn’t a total mismatch on paper—the Ducks are a solid playoff team returning after years away, and goaltending, special teams, and timely scoring will decide it.
Why the Ducks Have a Real Shot
Goaltending edge? Anaheim has been competitive all year, and if their goalie (likely Lukas Dostal) steals games, it levels the playing field against Edmonton’s star power.
Road resilience: The Ducks went 19-20-2 away but showed fight.
Playoff hockey is different: Regular-season dominance (Edmonton has Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl) doesn’t always translate. Momentum shifts, injuries, and physicality matter more.
Betting/analytic odds: Most models and oddsmakers favor Edmonton (often around -240 for the series), but they give Anaheim a realistic 35-45% chance to pull the upset, depending on the source.
That’s far from zero.”
I think what we are really dying to know is who wins in a best of 7 series between Grok and ChatGPT.
In answer to your question, Claude would win a best of 7 between Grok and ChatGPT.
The Athletic model has the Oilers 70%-30% to advance to the second round.
Moneypuck’s model is 59.1% to 40.9%
Did Grok mention the Ducks were 8-0 in the shootout, a game state not available in the playoffs.
Did Grok mention that this Oilers core have proven to be have a bigger playoff spike over regular season than any other team in the league? Or that McDavid, Drai and Buchard are 3 of the top playoff producers in the history of the sport?
Grok mentioned that the Oilers haven’t won a cup despite numerous first overall picks gifted to them for 36 years.
Your Oilers hatred is shining through. Sad and pathetic little boy.
It all makes sense now.
This is why I think people are incorrect in saying HH is a troll. He is clearly just someone with a comical hatred towards an NHL team. Just look at how mad he is. Trolls troll for amusement – if they are getting frustrated and there is no amusement to be found, they are just mentally unwell and should be supervised when using the internet.
Haha. Fair response.
Right, but Mikael Granland getting 16% of his goals in one game, a hat trick, is completely repeatable. And of course, McDavid, Drai and Bouchard all not scoring a goal is also highly repeatable.
Such a pathetic post.
WE can overlook the Ducks, but you are right the Oilers cannot. Oil in 5. Although when was the last time we swept a series? Just looked it up. 1988. We are due.
The season series means very little to nothing. Chatgpt and Grok will respond to how you ask the question. Anything is possible. Why dont we just wait and see.
Fairly certain this Oilers team has enough experience not to take the Ducks (or anyone) for granted as a pushover. They aren’t just trying to beat the Ducks, they’re trying to establish a repeatable formula that can go through multiple teams – all of which is contrary to overlooking Anaheim.
maybe its lack of sleep or something in my beer, but I like the overall make up of this year’s squad over last. The youthful energy was noticeably missing last year
This series is the mirror image of the last EDM-AHM series. Oilers are basically playing themselves rom 2017 and anything could happen.
This is indeed a possibility – they did this versus LA last year in the first couple of games before they realized they need to play the right way and then dominated the Western conference for the next 5-6 weeks.
Dostal has been struggling but he has multiple game stealing abilities and pedigree – getting to him early in the series would be best.
And so beginneth the sort of miserable thread that keeps many of us away from the site. Why do Devils Lettuce (as always), Sierra, 90s Fan, the otherwise excellent OP, etc etc engage (feed) a troll? Sigh.
dug up some numbers on McDavid / Drai production WOWY because I just learned how to do this. All 150+ mins:
McDavid 5v5 pts/60 with:
Savoie – 3.03
Walman -2.99
Bouch -2.96
Nuge – 2.73
Hyman – 2.73
Podz – 2.53
Leo – 2.27
Nurse -2.13
Leo with
Kapanen – 3.93
Savoie – 3.4
Bouch -3.38
Podz – 2.54
Nurse -1.97
Roslovic – 1.92
Walman -1.12
Savoie will be glued to McDavid/Drai for the next 5 years. And what a huge advantage to have Leo be at his best with two guys with a combined 3M (guessing) cap hit.
And pretty interesting to see the Bouch effect on McDrai. That’s why you bring the Bouchman to the Olympics.
Terrible trade.
Which one the Podzy trade by Van? Astounding they chose to keep Hoglander over Podzilla
No. The Savoie trade. Just awful.
I thought so too at first.
But then Savoie really arrived in the back half of this season. Smart player, who’s always around the net; despite a lack of size or blazing speed, he uses body position very effectively to win board battles. Better at scoring goals already than McLeod, who never learned to stop in front of the net. Versatile – can be a first line RW and top PKer. Has enough skill to legitimately be on McDavid’s wing. Still on a cheap contract with years of team control.
Savoie’s going to put up more points than McLeod next season, then never look back.
Good trade – we just had to be patient.
someone somewhere else pointed out that the Samanski-for-nothing acquisition allows the Savoie trade to provide full value. In a vacuum it hurt Oil to overspend on eroding vets for a 3C position Clouder would have handled better than anyone else on the roster this season (or last?), but right now the longer term is looking good on both fronts – 3C and top six wing settling into place.
Ya i fully agree. As noted above…..just keepin on keepin on about our friend the dumbass.
sarcasm my guys. Sarcasm re: nacho.
i love the kid.
Actually, they kept Arshdeep Bains and Aatu Raty on their NHL roster which is why they had no room for Podz…… Arshdeep Bains and Aatu Raty.