I remember the WHA OIlers, a team that in many ways existed only because Bill Hunter had a massive imagination and zeal for the spotlight. Hunter brought the WHA Oilers to this city and he did it with words and energy. He also fired coach Ray Kinasewich on Saturday and hired him on Monday a few times in 1972. Even considering all the chaos, from the owners to the trade is one-for-one, I don’t recall a year as unusual as this one. Please read this.
If I had to pick one song to describe these Oilers it would be Strange Brew, by Cream. I also considered Strange Fruit by Billie Holliday, Always Crashing in the Same Car by David Bowie and Sweet Virginia by the Rolling Stones. Strange Brew it is.
WHAT TO EXPECT IN APRIL
- At home to: CHI, VEG (Expected 1-0-1) 1-1-0
- On the road to: UTA, SJS, LAK (Expected 2-1-0) 1-1-1
- At home to: COL, VAN (Expected 1-1-0) 1-0-1
- Expected Record: 4-2-1
- Actual Record: 3-2-2
- Season Record: 41-30-11, 93 points in 82 games
A team with more than one immortal talent does and should consider this to be less than satisfactory. The truth about the regular season, and it’s been this way since the league dissolved the original six, is the regular season doesn’t count unless you miss the playoffs. Oilers qualified, and the hockey Gods have given the team a clear path to daylight.
- Podkolzin-Nuge-Roslovic 11:31, 10-3 shots, 64X, 5-2 HDSC
- Savoie-McDavid-Hyman 11:31, 4-2 shots, 1-0 goals, 59X, 3-2 HDSC
- Dach-Samanski-Frederic 10:35, 4-2 shots, 2-0 goals, 67X, 5-2 HDSC
- Henrique-Lazar-Kapanen 8:43, 3-1 shots, 91X, 3-0 HDSC
My favourite part of the game was Matt Savoie getting the hat-trick, he finishes his rookie season 18-19-37 in 82 games. He’ll be a Dr. Feelgood story right up until the offer sheet—I kid, I kid. Connor McDavid had a chance at 50 goals, so of course he passed the puck all night long. The no-look to Savoie for a marker was splendid. I think that line is ready!
The Nuge line was wildly effective, I dream of a line like that one as the third unit. Holy hell, Batman, that could be a difference maker. The actual third line last night, was fire, with Dach going 1-1-2 and being a pain in the ass, Samanski scoring and Frederic playing well. I think the coach will fade Samanski in the playoffs, it will be a damn shame. Fourth line was solid, Kapanen needs to step it up, the team needs a Finn as a feature player to win the Stanley Cup.
- Nurse-Murphy 16:43, 6-4 shots, 1-0 goals, 58X, 6-5 HDSC
- Walman-Emberson 16:01, 10-3 shots, 0-1 goals, 84X, 8-1 HDSC
- Ekholm-Bouchard 14:52, 5-3 shots, 1-0 goals, 58X, 3-2 HDSC
- Connor Ingram, 11 of 12, .917, 1GA versus 1.65 expected
This area of the team looks set, a nice evening for the third pairing in feature minutes. Connor Ingram has found a hockey home and I’m thrilled for him. I don’t think Evan Bouchard wins the Norris, even through he earned it. My belief is that most hockey people of a certain age acknowledge the math in order to get rid of it and move on to what they really want to talk about, and that’s what they see. Evan Bouchard doesn’t rush the puck like Paul Coffey and he doesn’t hit like a freight train.
He’s not going to win the Norris. There’s a bias among voters. You’ll have to wait an entire generation for it to happen, Bouchard will be retired by then. Every once in a blue moon, you’ll see a writer question mental toughness, or wonder why he avoids getting hit, while also looking past the fact he stays healthy. No sir. Evan Bouchard is a litmus test for the Norris voters. I’m telling you the voters will fail the test. I know I’m right on this.
On the Lowdown today, our feature guest is Steve Lansky. We’ll talk Oilers-Ducks, the mess that is the Toronto Maple Leafs and playoff hockey. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
I do think Leon will be ready for game 1 of the series. I think Leon’s going to be fresh and will lead in points by a nice margin after we knock off he Ducks in 5 games.
Dineen gets a breakaway coming out of the box – stopped. Hutson and Poulin cause the d-man to turn it over – Hutson, down to Dineen out front the Poulin who bangs home his second of the game.
3-0.
Some elite puck movement on the PP among Hutson, Marjala and Howard and Howard rips home the 2-0 goal.
Lafreniere with the zone entry and pass to D’Amato who sifts one from the point and a charging Poulin tips it in for his 20th and a 1-0 lead early.
Clattenburg remains out of the Condors’ lineup – I’m still not sure if he’s a healthy scratch or hurt…
Holty says Clatt, Akey, Prokop out injured.
Hellebuyck?
Not with Connor, Scheifleieie and Morrissey still there. Won the presidents trophy last year.
That’s a shot at coaching and management if you ask me, not him wanting to leave. Winnipeg will always have a hard time getting free agents to sign. They fleeced LA years ago in that trade, so more of that and draft/develop/sign Bowman style. Bound to get a hit.
I would move heaven and earth to get Hellebuyck. Almost nobody would be off limits.
But I doubt he really wants to leave. He’s frustrated after a disappointing season, as he should be. And he sounds a bit frustrated that other players don’t want to come to Winnipeg, as he should be.
Pie in the sky scenario…
Oilers get to the Finals vs. Montreal or Pittsburgh.
The McDavid/Drai against Crosby/Malkin matchups alone would be worth its weight in gold.
Oil win it in 5.
Ingram with the Conn Smythe and Savoie going off ala Pisani and potting a baker’s dozen in goals.
That’s the spirit 3 more sleeps then the real season starts. I’m glad we have a healthy D with plug and play D in the pressbox as well if injuries happen. I see Ekholm-Walkman turning the switch on and making life miserable for Cutter-Granlund-carlsson-Kreider-Terry. We all know how much Bouchard loves the playoffs it’s also time for Nurse to shine with Coffey giving him a nice little push.
Hope Frederic & Dach go full Spinal Tap and turn it to Eleven as well!
Enjoy the playoffs Reja!
I’m not sure about the plug and play D – I mean, I think Regula can play in this league, he’s had some dominant AHL games this season but he’s unconfident in the AHL and Stastney has struggled. Neither has played an NHL game in a while.
Now, at forward, there are 4-5 plug and play forwards sitting out if the lineup is fully healthy – real depth.
It’s all about opportunity Regula was doing well and seemed to be a dependable D until Kane sent him into the twilight zone. The Kane hit took a lot out of him. As for Stastney he does have moments of flair. Anyhow it’s fortunate we have a healthy D. I do think the Oilers should target Gudas side of the ice I do think he’s vulnerable.
Sask doesn’t actually have a NHL team…so they’ve adopted the Oilers.
I grew up in small town Sask in the 70s-80s, and back then, most of my friends had ‘inherited’ their allegiances. Habs/Bruins/Leafs fans cuz their dad and granddad were… there were a few outliers, like the one Capital fan(?) and the poor kid who liked the Jets. Everyone else was either team Falmes or team Oilers.
Gretzky’s arrival and ascendency was what initially caught my attention. He was all over the Hockey News and SI, and I was able to catch most Oilers games on my Zenith transistor radio. Raised on Rod Phillips!
This closely resembles my experience — time and placewise too — except I never listened to the Oilers on the radio.
In high school, my peers / friends and I were fans of either the Oilers or Habs. (Not many people back home dared to identify themselves with the Leaves then!) I still remember bringing crying towels for the Habs fans whenever their team was eliminated from the playoffs.
I do not remember a single Winnipeg fan from back home (mind you, it’s close to the Alberta border). Did have a few Bruins / Sabres / Islanders / Flyers fans though.
Gretzky, Kurri, and the Fuhr roundhouse glove saves were probably what Initially drew me to the Oilers, but the arrival of Tik hooked me. What a unique player
It’s too bad Hunter didn’t get the Blues to move to Saskatoon. I wonder how close Saskatoon really did come?
My grandparents are both from Sask, met and married in Edm after ww2. Regina and Eyebrow/Elbow, so big and small.
My grandmother told me to I had to cheer for the Oil when I was a wee tot, and she didn’t even like hockey. She loved curling. Still staying true to her and I watch the Brier when I can.
My wife has family in Elbow.
We have visited often.
A town sharing a name with Gordie Howe’s favourite board-battle tactic.
In some ways, Sask is the most pure hockey-watching place. Huge interest in the game itself, without any one single team to cheer for. It’s the opposite of places like Vancouver or Boston, which have tons of interest in their own team and very little for the game itself.
Having said that, Rod Pedersen did a survey a few years back. About 30% were Oiler fans, compared with 10-20% each for Flames, Leafs, Habs, and smaller numbers of Canucks, Red Wings, Bruins.
So if Utah knocks off Vegas will have home ice for the 2nd round. It’s then that will have to be road warriors in the conference final and cup final. I’m getting fired up for the playoffs regular season means diddly squat it’s time to clog up the middle keep the Ducks to the outside and for Dach-Frederic-Dickerson-Podkolzin-Kappy-Hyman to pound the piss out of a Trouba and a injued Gudss who will snap if we give him the Pietranglo treatment.
The only reason I wanted the Ducks is I’m hoping the young guns can’t handle the noisy crowd and I we win the first 2 at home. I don’t think the Ducks have answer to the Dach line Bowman has built a team that can keep up to Ducks-Utah and also has the line-up to knock off Vegas. I do believe that the winner of the Wild-Dallas series will knock off a wounded Av’s team after L.A gets their pound flesh in a 6-7 game series.
I doubt the Kings will make it Game 6 or 7 against the Avs.
1st round usually has the most hitting as the playoffs continue players wear down. I’m hoping the Kings clog the middle and frustrate the Av’s. In other words play the trap and get goals from Kempe-Panarin. Not having Fiala hurts but they have players that can put the biscuit in the net.
The Kings even if losing to the Oilers gave them a pretty good challenge. If the Kings clog it up, slow it down and pound the smallish Avs, get goaltending, could be interesting. If they let them roll it’s a sweep
The kings are a royal pain in the ace to play. They do have talent and the style is awful to watch and awful to play against. They will need goaltending (as you said Slushy) and to score first almost always to play their game and frustrate the AVS. If it opens up or the AVS score first they are likely toast.
I wouldn’t mind seeing them frustrate the AVS for a few games for sure but I think they may get swept as well.
This is playoffs though! Giants fall
I’m glad we get a nice little break and we’re at home giving Hyman-Leon-Dickerson an extra day to heal. 1st round is usually where the upsets happen as everyone is going full steam. It’s Dostal 1st playoff he has the ability to stone us. If we can get to Dostal early I predict we chase him by game 3 in Anaheim. Husso has had his moments but I think we get to him as well. The emergence of say a Dach-Henrique-Frederic line has me pumped. This is Henrique swan song in Edmonton against his old team. If Henrique gets a few timely goals against his old team I could see him back in Anaheim next year.Henrique is my dark horse this Playoff
That line is just great timing here, we needed that type of line for a long while. A playoff line. If Fred can find some mojo with scoring, him and Dach can really help out there. Already are really with Samanski. Dach has been a great add. Henri will be good as the center, if not try Samanski for a game.
You know, if playoff series were decided by pounds and inches, the Stars and Ducks would be crowned champs already.
They both come in at an average of 6’2″ and 205.
Only the Leafs are heavier at 207….lotta good it did them.
Even an inch can make a big difference…
that’s what she said 😉
Is Pickard eligible to backup as an emergency callup?
Are the configurations of the roster where Pickard would dress as a backup to enable the Oilers to play a more expensive forward combination than they otherwise would be able to.
i.e. if Dickenson, Henrique are both dressed.
I don’t know exactly how the playoff cap works, but at face value the roster iced has to be compliant. Puckpedia doesn’t want to figure it out (goes wonky) but adding the salaries up and Campbell and bonus overage:
With Drai Henri and Dicky with Jarry sitting Dach- 93,486,666
With them, sitting Dach and Pick – 89,111,666
Unless there is something else to calculate they won’t get over the cap. The game now is use LTIR and try to squeak a good player in reg season, but a good player would have to sit in playoffs, would be higher end injury cover if it ever happens
Yes, he is eligible.
The playoff cap is of zero concern for the Oilers.
They can ice any potential 18 skater and 2 goalie lineup without cap issues.
Knob says Dickinson expected on ice for practice on Sunday but it will be up to the doctors.
Id love to see numbers that prove otherwise but currently I think Samanski is better than Dickenson. I don’t want him to be replaced on line 3/4
I don’t disagree and part of me wants Dickinson to sit out, at least for the beginning of the series to not mess with what has been working.
At the same time, this might be some recency bias and I do think we need to remember that Dickinson has played tougher minutes than Samanski.
I do agree that Samanski has been more “mistake free” and I would say that he’s outplayed Henrique for sure but its tough for me to say that I’d rather have Samanski over Dickinson (even though I kind of do).
I guess one other element in this decision is that how healthy is Dickenson? How much pain is he fighting through? I think at 100% both players are close in terms of their defensive awareness. I see Samanski having a higher offensive potential and give him the nod if Dickenson is not close to full health, which of course we will never know.
I’d rather have Sam and Dicky before Henri, who doesn’t move the needle much on anything and isn’t fast. A good player as in reliable, but I think the others can contribute more in playoffs. But maybe the stage is too big for Sam at this point
Henrique’s & Dickinson’s stats over the course of the regular season are similar. I think the thing with Dickinson is that he’s six years younger and stronger. They’re both solid on the PK and good on draws. IMO Dickinson when healthy should play ahead of Henrique , there should be no reason to rush Dickinson it’s looking as if Nuge will center the third line with Rico on LW. I know it’s Rico’s swan song and I’m sure he will see some ice time during the playoffs. I want to see both of Dickinson and Samanski as centers in the bottom six with Henrique & Lazar backing them up.
Love the song choice LT.
Also agree with you Bouchard won’t win if this year. But another playoffs >PPG and it will be very hard to keep his name off it going forward.
As for the team. Warm up season is done. it’s all about PEAKING.
Let’s f*cking do this boys!!!!!!
Peaking Duck?
Drai on a line at practice – money.
The recent third line being the fourth line for the playoffs – money.
The following is a hell of a forward group:
Savoie Mcdavid hyman
Podkolzin Drai Kapanen
Rico Nuge Roslovic
Dach Samanski Frederic
I really like these lines. We’ve seen what line 1 is capable of recently. Line 2 has some great positive history early in the year- hopefully Kapanen can regain his speed and physicality in the playoffs with Drai centering him. Line 3 is a little bit of a crapshoot- I don’t know what to expect of Roslovic in the playoffs, but he is surrounded by a proven playoff performer in Nuge and 2 responsible players with Nuge and Henrique – if Roslovic doesn’t play responsibly there are a number of replacements at the ready. I love love love line 4 and really don’t want Dickenson back, personally. Samanski is a younger, with more offensive potential version of Dickenson. I haven’t seen him make a big mistake leading to a goal against, and I’ve seen Dickenson make more than a few. Hopefully coach is also seeing the reality vs the idea of Dickenson as a defensive specialist.
What I find encouraging is that most of this lineup can return next year, and most of them should be as good or better. Replace Rico and one of Kap/Roslo with some younger guys and this has has the potential to develop into a very deep forward group.
It’s why I really hope KK allows guys like Savoie and Samanski to get as much experience as possibly this year, and he doesn’t replace them as soon as they have a bad game (or once Dickinson comes back, in Samanski’s case).
True! I hope the department of youth reminds Stan not to go shopping in the July 1 aisle again, and not to sign the elderly to long expensive contracts with no movement clauses. Beginning with Dickenson and Roslovic, although I would make an exception for resonable, short term contracts, and get Murphy signed- he has been the Nurse whisperer thus far.
Place Dickinson in the middle with Nuge & Roslovic and there’s a defensive, hard checking third line that can also score goals.
Except for Ros
Really like these lines. The 4th line is a pain in the ace monster with a little bit of scoring touch.
The Rico Nuge Ros line will be critical. They must fly and if so that is a 4 line wagon.
LT:
I would submit to you an album that may reflect the psychedelic acid jazz vibe of this team — Bitch’s Brew, by Miles Davis.
At the very least, worth a listen.
“Jazz is musical wankin’. If you want a wank, use that thing in your hand, not your sax”
– Jimmy Rabbitte, The Commitments
Stauffer saying
Savoie Mcdavid hyman
Podkolzin Drai Kapanen
Rico Nuge Roslovic
Dach Samanski Frederic
D pairs as expected
Love the first line and 4th line.
3rd line is a steaming pile of garbage
When Dickinson comes back there’s no way you have Roslovic on a defensively responsible 3rd line so why not just move him right away.
Really wish we could have found a top 6 forward somewhere
Love it!! Those are the lines I posted as hopeful last night! I hope that as long as Dickenson is playing through pain that coach recognises what Samanski is capable of in that spot. I actually prefer Samanski remain over Dickenson but time will tell based on playoff results.
To solve this, I wonder if Coach KK would have the confidence to place Dickinson in Samanski’s spot and take out Henrique to run a bottom 6 of
RNH-Samanski-Roslovic
Dach-Dickinson-Fred
That would work fine. Either way with Dickinson & Samanski centering Either third or fourth lines.
Be nice to get some goal scoring from that third line.
Different player type — but I am getting Glencross vibes from Dach. It has been a minute since we’ve had an electrifying fourth line.
No way any of Samanski, Dach, Frederic are coming out. Lazar and Rico first, and then Kap.
Savoie’s goals were tremendous. What playmaking from 97 and Bouchard. I have had great faith in this player since day one, a belief that was solidified by his monthly splits. I didn’t foresee this level of offensive production. Wow.
It’s a very good team — I have said before, the best of the last three years. Part of the problem in recognizing it is Bouchard has gone from merely excellent to bananas supernova; another part of the problem is the pops from Podz and Savoie have largely been accomplished at evens. I value highly the additions of Murphy and Dickenson. Maybe there’s some wistfulness mixed in there for the dearly departed.
I prefer to look forward. What a team!
That would be nice. The Oil sure blew it on Glencross. We can only hope Dach can mirror him, even a bit. Nice player type
Interesting debates about using historical 1-8 seeding instead. Some people forget though that the 3 division winners got first 3 seeds locked up which would also create mismatched match-ups in standings although not as severe. This is what it would look like if using estimated division based off geography and past divisions
COL* (1) vs LAK (8)
DAL* (2) vs UTA (6)
ANH* (7)vs EDM (5)
MIN (3) vs VGK (4)
CAR* (1) vs PHI (8)
BUF* (2) vs OTT (6)
PIT* (7) vs BOS (5)
TB (3) vs MTL (4)
Kind of crazy to think that even if we have a healthy roster we have no idea what the forward lines are gonna be. Could be anything. would guess Knobby goes to his comfort zone and do
Nuge Mcdavid Hyman
Podkolzin Drai Roslovic
Savoie Dickinson Freddy
its not what I would do. But just very strange that after 82 games were still playing line swaps
I think it’s starting to be clear what Knoblauch is thinking with his forward group, the defense is set in stone and Ingram is the designated starter in net.
Reason that Pick’s recall is “emergency” is that teams can add a 3G for the playoffs on emergency and it won’t count against the team’s 5 recall limit (in place until their AHL team is eliminated) – confirmed with Puckpedia
Reminds me of the Roli Conkinen affair.
Better have the best backup dressed
No doubt the organization considers Jarry the best back-up as poor as the post-injury season has gone for him.
Oilers go 16-10 and finish the job. You heard it here first.
Fingers crossed
They need to win faster than that.
Only 1 champ in the past 10 has had that many losses. Short series are a big deal.
But…. 10 out of the last 10 teams were in the range of 4-10 losses. So…
Wouldn’t it be beautiful if the Canucks hired Chiarelli…
Crazy but it would actually be an upgrade for them. As much as I hate what he did, he also did some good work in drafting. Built a tough team with Maroon and Lucic. Good for one year anyways.
No way can things be any worse than how VCR bled out after finishing first. Except for how YYC bled out talent after they finished first. Life is good.
I suggest it’s been a strange brew for many of us because we have expectations, but “we don’t know what we don’t know.”
Some months ago a voice here reminded us that GMSB cautioned against expectations early season. I believe he said it would be spring before we saw his vision for this team, realized. The “embarrassments” in Florida May have been the final alchemistry for the team he and the coaching staff have been brewing all season.
While it saddens me to see Allvin will no longer be responsible for running the Nucks into the ground; I have full faith in Jim Rutherford’s incompetence.
Wil be interested to see who gets that GM job. I don’t know what good candidate would want it when they are clearly just doing the grunt work for Rutherford
When I heard TJ Hughes wouldn’t consider Vancouver because they didn’t have a development plan for him! At all.
That is crazy and should be very concerning for any potential prospects or staff hires.
So while it’s easy to see a potential path of a rebuild, with current and future assests. It’s also easy to see a potential decade of darkness for our deserving provincial neighbour’s.
Yep, we’ve seen this script before.
Canucks would be wise to go full development mode, but the owners know how fickle the city is. McKenna may keep some enthusiasm going.
You can’t tank for #1OV anymore. Only for a Top 3 pick. Canucks have only 25% chance of #1OV.
When a team starts a rebuild, they should draft a D-man, because D take longer to develop. This will actually give them a chance, with Reid, Carels, and Verhoeff all likely available them. The latter two are Western Canadian boys too.
Maybe Fib would know?! But I read somewhere a couple of years ago that ownership is part of the problem and, of coarse, Rutherford..how else can you explain how the Canucks have fallen. I’d feel sorry for the fans, but I made the mistake of wearing my Oiler cap at a Canucks game in Vancouver (I know silly right, and not on purpose 😉) and I got some verbals and looks that just weren’t hospitable. A few of the fans were nice and smiled
I’ll put up the Reg Season tracking I did for those that are interested for teams that made it in. I’ll break it into east and west to make it less of a WOT. This data is since Nov 29 for the Oilers, or the game after that for some teams, to keep it at 57 games for all. I picked this date as when the Oilers started playing decently. Having the terrible start in the data skews it I think
As I manually track this, it is accurate but there may be a few errors but that shouldn’t affect much over the 57 games. I’ll list the average for all of the teams as a comparable for the data. The goal with this is to look for team strength, taking out non-game state things like Shoot Out goals (luck), games that were won or lost dominating or getting dominated
Glossary:
W / L – Wins Losses Reg Time
PW – Power Wins, wins by 2 or more goals no empty net
CL – Clear Loss, loss by 2 or more no empty net
POTW / POTL – Playoff team win or loss, based on standings the previous day of the game
LL / CB – Leads Lost – Comebacks = down or up by 2 goals to start a game
GF-SO – Goals For minus Shootout
GA-SO – Goals Against minus Shootout
G Diff – Goal Diff based on the above
Average
W / L – 32 / 25
PW/CL – 13 / 10
POTW/POTL – 14 / 12
LL/CB – 2 / 2
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 185 / 166 / 20
West
Oilers
W /L – 31 / 26
PW/CL – 18 / 12
POTW/POTL – 11 / 14
LL/CB – 1 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 206 / 171 / 35
Avs
W / L – 37 / 20
PW/CL – 18 / 6
POTW/POTL – 14 / 8
LL/CB – 0 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 195 / 145 / 50
Knights
W / L – 29 / 28
PW/CL – 14 / 10
POTW/POTL – 8 / 17
LL/CB – 1 / 3
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 183 / 173 / 10
Stars
W / L – 34 / 23
PW/CL – 13 / 6
POTW/POTL – 18 / 13
LL/CB – 1 / 3
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 193 / 149 / 44
Wild
W / L – 32 / 25
PW/CL – 15 / 9
POTW/POTL – 17 / 11
LL/CB – 1 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 198 / 164 / 34
Ducks
W / L – 29 / 28
PW/CL – 9 / 14
POTW/POTL – 14 / 12
LL/CB – 1 / 4
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 178 / 202 / -24
Kings
W / L – 24 / 33
PW/CL – 6 / 10
POTW/POTL – 12 / 19
LL/CB – 1 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 160 / 167 / -7
The Oilers are pretty strong based on Power Wins, GF-SO, G Diff. Their weakness with D play shows in Clear Losses, POTL, and GA-SO compared to the top teams. If they can keep going as they have been and are healthy enough, I don’t see how they are in a different place than last playoffs, and possibly, fingers crossed with better ‘tending
The Ducks have had defensive issues, but like the younger version of this Oiler group they can be dangerous. Their POTW is strong, and their 4 Comebacks is the most – they are going to push no matter what. The Oilers need to dominate them and the puck, and not try to sit on a lead, which has never worked really, especially since 2005 and the league calling more obstruction penalties
Thanks. I’d love to see this broken down by quarters. I’m sure the Oilers aren’t the only team with “strange brewing” going on, brewing that only seems to make sense in the final 20 or so games of the regular season.
I can break down the Oilers and perhaps the Avs for the last quarter. It would take too long for me to do much more. Or anyone can do Natural Statrick by dates if straight goal data is fine with them
Even just the Oilers last quarter would be instructive for me.
Other teams will have their seasonal development patterns, but how this team does its “strange brewing” interests me most of all.
Thank you.
Done
For the entire season, the Ducks came back from trailing 2-0 in the third period to win 9 games.
As you say, they never stop pushing.
Given your decision to base these comparables on when the Oilers started to play better, it does not capture the sheer dominance of the Avalanche early in the season nor giving sufficient weight to the VGK surge after the coaching change.
After indifferent play most of the season, since the coaching change, the Knights went 7-0-1 while outscoring the opposition 31-16.
5 of those wins were Power Wins and they didn’t have a Clear Loss.
6 of those 8 games were against the Canucks, Flames, Kraken or Jets
they also beat the Oilers 5-1 and the Avalanche 3-2.
I don’t think the Ducks should be taken lightly. They won’t be an easy out.
True, but you don’t win the Cup at the start of the season. They have cooled off a fair bit as the season wound down. A very good team for sure, but much closer to the rest of the good teams at this point
Maybe next season if I have time to make a spread sheet for it I’ll split the season in two instead of using an artificial start date
Much of the “cool down” can be attributed to injury and a lack of urgency once the division was clearly won. However, it is important to also acknowledge the AVs finished the season with a 7-2-1 record in their last 10 GP.
Perhaps, breaking the season down into quarters would be more revealing.
Yes to quarters, s’il vous plaît.
Too much work at the moment. The question for the Avs is can they get back to the level they were at. There’s a reason the league winner rarely wins the Cup, and is everyone healthy enough with late injuries. Same for the Oilers
Its important to also acknowledge that the Oilers finished the season with a 6-2-2 record in their last 10 GP.
As you said last year, the Kings almost never lost at home in the regular season which would mean they would make a deep playoff push.
In the playoffs though, they lost all of their games at home.
The dude just cant stop using absolutes. Can be attributed instead of may be attributed, will happen instead of might happen, projected to happen instead of lets wait and see.
I left the Mamms out:
Mammoth
W / L – 30 / 27
PW/CL – 19 / 11
POTW/POTL – 14 / 12
LL/CB – 1 / 3
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 190 / 165 / 25
Glossary:
W / L – Wins Losses Reg Time
PW – Power Wins, wins by 2 or more goals no empty net
CL – Clear Loss, loss by 2 or more no empty net
POTW / POTL – Playoff team win or loss, based on standings the previous day of the game
LL / CB – Leads Lost – Comebacks = down or up by 2 goals to start a game
GF-SO – Goals For minus Shootout
GA-SO – Goals Against minus Shootout
G Diff – Goal Diff based on the above
Average
W / L – 32 / 25
PW/CL – 13 / 10
POTW/POTL – 14 / 12
LL/CB – 2 / 2
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 185 / 166 / 20
East
Bolts
W / L – 33 / 24
PW/CL – 19 / 9
POTW/POTL – 21 / 14
LL/CB – 0 / 3
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 201 / 164 / 37
Canes
W / L – 37 / 20
PW/CL – 9 / 9
POTW/POTL – 21 / 8
LL/CB – 5 / 2
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 204 / 170 / 34
Sabres
W / L – 40 / 17
PW/CL – 16 / 6
POTW/POTL – 15 / 9
LL/CB – 0 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 210 / 153 / 57
Sens
W / L –32 / 25
PW/CL – 19 / 8
POTW/POTL – 12 / 13
LL/CB – 2 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 199 / 161 / 38
Habs
W / L – 35 / 22
PW/CL – 16 / 7
POTW/POTL – 16 / 13
LL/CB – 2 / 1
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 195 / 161 / 34
Pens
W / L – 28 / 29
PW/CL – 17 / 10
POTW/POTL – 14 / 16
LL/CB – 2 / 3
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 212 / 190 / 22
There are some strong teams here, we’ll see how much experience comes into series all things being equal
To me the concerns are the Canes because the usual, great reg season but low PW and higher CL, 7 LL/CB games which is a lot. The Pens and Pens also look weaker in the POTW/L department. If the Bolts are healthy the east is their’s to lose to me
The Oilers and Avs last 21 games:
Oilers
W / L – 12 / 9
PW/CL – 7 / 5
POTW/POTL – 4 / 4
LL/CB – 0 / 0
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 67 / 62 / 5
Avs
W / L – 13 / 8
PW/CL – 6 / 1
POTW/POTL – 4 / 4
LL/CB – 0 / 0
GF-SO/GA-SO/G DIFF – 65 / 49 / 16
Actually pretty close outside of the Oilers defensive issues, which hopefully have been dialed in. The Avs would be the favourite, I think the Oilers if playing to the level they can hit can take any team out, all things being equal, panthers out
Thank you
No worries. Give the Oilers gave up 13 more goals in 21 GP and everything else is close, that’s impressive
Yes. Very close. If just counting W/L (no ties/OT pts), they’re two points different.
Also, this Oilers team is building. Getting better. We saw a similar dynamic last year in the first series: by the end of it, they were a different club than the one going into the series.
This, more than numbers for the 82-game “qualifying season” is what interests me most of all.
Only 1 playoff team, Anaheim (288), gave up more goals on the season.
The gulf between Colorado (203 – 2.40 GA/G) and Edmonton (269 – 3.23 GA/G) is enormous.
In the last 21 games using your system, Colorado gave up 2.33 GA/G while the Oilers gave up 2.95 GA/G
While the Oilers improved marginally, so did Colorado and played 7 of those games without their best defenseman.
As always the Oilers relied heavily on their powerplay which once again was the best in the league.
However, Colorado had the best penalty kill at 84.6% and given the vagaries of playoff officiating it’s unknowable how that will go.
They haven’t relied on PP since Leon has been out. Given the Avs PP was poor with Mak if improving, I would say with Leon the Oilers would have shown better in that time frame
End of the day nothing matters except what you do in playoffs
Last Pens should have been Sens 🙂
Lots of up arrows over the last number of weeks:
1) overall team commitment to structure, defence and puck management
2) Connor Ingram playing lots and playing very well (he’s .930 over the last 8 games or so)
3) Connor Murphy really playing like a legit 2RD and Darnell Nurse playing his best hockey in a long time beside him
4) Colton Dach looking like an impactful bottom six player and, seemingly, having a major effect on Trent Fredric
5) Josh Samanski looking like a legit bottom six center – offence will come but he is locked down defensively
6) Overall team depth – I mean, Lazar comes out for Drai but, when Dickinson is ready, one of Dach, Henrique, Samanski have to come out (or Kap) and that’s in addition to Jones. This team has 3 extra legit NHL players to insert (plus Howard).
7) Matt Savoie’s development – not only is he a top defensive forward on the team and PK guy but now he’s solidifying himself as a legit top 6 complimentary player – oh, he’s a rookie with another year left on his ELC.
8) The team’s record without Drai – they did very very well (and without Hyman for much of it).
These are solid up arrows, especially, in my mind, #’s 2 and 5. Ingram is so sneaky scrappy and is fighting for space like a hyena, and watch out for his stick work, it’s effective. Samanski is ready, hoping coaches don’t fade him. As an aside, did anyone see his interview that led to Stauffer’s comment about Germans not having a sense of humour. He seemed downright pissed when Gene told him he got credit for a goal. I’m still chuckling. Who does that? An intense and team first player does 🙂
Frederic had one nice speed burst last night to cut in on the goalie. My memory fails me but I think he got off a good shot, even with the defenceman cutting off the angle. I had to do a double take to make sure it was Frederic with that kind of speed.
I remember the play – he looked legit fast on that rush.
I think Fib is showing up with random downvotes. If you’re listening Fib, stop that please, it’s distracting 🙂
I’m still snickering about this. Per Stauffer between periods last night in saying Draisaitl would be back in round one: he has the pain threshold of a cadaver. Classic and true
The Norris field is so deep that it increases the probability that Evan Bouchard will win it because the “anti-Bouchard” vote will be split.
Makar, Werenski, Dahlin, Hughes, Hutson, Seider, Bouchard, Heiskanen, Shaefer, Sanderson
(conceivably, Broberg could be on some ballots).
Bouchard’s vote will have him on the ballot. The “anti-Bouchard” vote will be split amongst the other eight guys.
He should also win it because he’s been the best d-man in the league this season – his overall positive impact to outscoring is top of the league – looking at how his team does with and without him on the ice (the numbers show a larger impact than McDavid).
Bouchard should be in the mix and would be a worthy winner. But perception, bias and reality are beyond the vaunted voters. It’s all skewed in their minds
Don’t discount the Buffalo-love factor.
Easy to throw down Dahlin as your pick after he captained the Sabres back to the playoffs.
Good point. He’s definitely in the mix and there has been a buffalo surge
BROBERG on ballots?!?!?
i think not.
I missed McAvoy.
Objective pick is Bouch. Politics pick is Werenski. Some will posit that Bouch will win it later in his career and this may be closest Werenski gets to winning it.
Watching the Athletic’s Western Conference playoff preview, and boy oh boy, it’s the greatest hits of Oilers narratives so far. (although i guess that’s what you get when your series analyst for the hit covers the Nucks).
Go ahead, bet against us.
Oilers at +1300 to win the cup seems high. I’ll probably bite on that action.
Just bet 3x the money on mcdavid being leading scorer of 1st series.
It’s 4.51 odds
Drance can be entertaining at times but often dispenses with actual analysis in favour of narratives and perceived clever quips – for example “Connor McDavid is John Wick and the Panthers killed his dog”.
Kind of hard to take seriously when he calls the Oilers “unserious”.
This morning’s “preview” of the Oilers/Ducks is highlighted by a full-on roast of the Oilers after a very brief discussion about the series.
The John Wick line was good, the rest was just lazy.
Im not sure why anyone would care what that guy says or thinks…
Norris will probably be: Werenski (Dahlin, Bouchard)
Hart will be: Mackinnon (Kucherov, McDavid)
This is like Doughty winning over Erik Karlsson for the Norris.
Ah well, I complain about Samanski not playing center, good thing Knoblauch reads this blog! 😉
Please keep him on center!
Savoie-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Nuge-Roslovic
Henrique-Lazar-Kapanen
Dach-Samanski-Frederic
Once the lineup is healthy, I think I’d favour keeping the lines pretty much as-is but inserting Draisaitl in the 2C spot which would push Nuge down to where Henrique played and Dickinson in over Lazar. Like this:
Savoie-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Roslovic
Nuge–Dickinson-Kapanen
Dach-Samanski-Frederic
I believe KK will give Henrique the start in GM1 over Samanski. Samanski in as injury replacement or Henrique or Kapanen not playing well.
Dickinson won’t be ready for game 1 and probably Draisatl too, so there’s room for both in the lineup. The top set is likely the G1 lineup, the bottom is the “healthy” lineup.
This is the exact lines that should happen. I’d hope the Samanski line ends up as a third line on merit not because the Dickinson line is failing.
I feel the way Kap has been playing that revised third line will be where offense goes to die. Maybe put Kap back w his Kaptain Drai and let Roslo help Nuge score points?
The Nuge-Dickinson-Kapanen line will be where ALL offense goes to die – for and against. With the right deployment this could be very beneficial for the Oilers.
Podz & Kapanen have always been good with Leon as well. Roslovic could slide down with Nuge & Dickinson so the third line might have more offensive punch.
I think the best line deployment would be literally dropping Drai in for Lazar
Hyman-McDavid-Savoie
Henrique-Drai-Kapanen
Podz-RNH-Roslovic
Dach-Samanski-Fred
Lots of minutes for line 1
16 minutes as Drai comes back where you can spot others in Henriques place periodically 16 minutes RNH while giving the support he needs to be effective
Res to an effective/energy 4th line
What would your line up look like if Dickinson was back?
Good Q. This is a tough lineup to build that maintains bottom 6 scoring with Dickinson in the line-up. Him & Henrique are identical skillsets and blackholes for offence so ideally Coack KK gets comfortable enough with only have 1 of them in the lineup.
I’d likely go:
Hyman- McDavid-Savoie
Podz-Drai-Kapanen
RNH-Samanski-Roslovic
Dach-Dickinson-Fred
The key in any lineup hopefully being giving RNH enough support to have a 3rd outscoring line and trusting Drai to be able to carry anyone
I like it
Playing Henrique with Draisaitl over Podzgoalman is certainly a choice.
And a choice I would love not to make. The calculated bet is giving RNH the most ideal support to create a 3rd outscoring line so keeping that line together from last night. If we also keep Samanski line together, then the hope is the Drai can continue to carry anyone on his line and outscore. Henrique may still have enough hands and front net presence to add more than expected offence
Personally I see Henrique & Lazar as extra forwards.
Me too but trying to be realistic that coach KK will have him in the line up, especially if Dickinson is out
A bad choice.
The Canucks were left on the cutting room floor, way over matched. Well done
Bobblehead hyperbole Button on TSN saying the series won’t even be close. Ready for it. His excellency is saying the Oilers will dominate, primarily because the Ducks PK and defence are terrible. His riding partner for the bit Cameron Gaunce is also picking the Oil but more measured, calmly saying the Ducks goalie is good but Oil have the advantage. Has Button always been a goof?
Darn I dislike over the top predictions. Play the games – while I dislike the Ducks for past sins (and don’t love their current uniforms, hurts the eyes) they are scrappy, have good skill and will/can be a handful. I gotta say the Oilers should win playing the defence we’ve seen since the Panther debacle, and the offence will look after itself. Ingram will also be part of the story, he’s focused
“Has Button always been a goof?” This is quite unfair. Button has always been a doofus.
Good description!
Pickard recalled on an emergency basis.
It would appear that it’s so a 3rd goalie is readily available for playoffs.
They’ve got their dressing room vibes guy back. A good choice IMO.
Fun game last night, loved the first period hatty by Savoie, especially the Opposite-Leon third goal. Bouchard proved once again why he’s worthy of the Norris, although like LT I don’t think he gets it. 11, 2-14-16 +10 down the stretch, ramping up at exactly the right time.
Anecdotally, I remember McDavid starting out the season slowly and not looking like his dominant self at all. I presumed it was due to a hangover from another heartbreaking Stanley Cup Finals loss. Maybe there’s a faster way, but I went back now to count his points manually from the first 10 games of the season. He went 2, 1 (EN assist), 1 (EN assist), 1 (PP assist), 2, 0, 1 (first goal of season), 3, 0, 1. (The Oilers went 4-4-2 during that span.)
Surprisingly, it still adds up to 12 points (1 goal, 11 assists) in 10 games, a pace at which an average NHL player would die for. But McDavid didn’t look like the best player in the game, scratching out EN assists only to get points and not scoring until game 7.
And then my favourite hockey player goes out and wins the Art Ross, with no suspense in game 82, even though Kucherov was playing out of his mind for months and MacKinnon was producing at his usual high rate. McDavid has looked unreal for a while now, especially since Leon has been sidelined.
Go to the NHL stats page and click “By Game” then select the dates.
https://www.nhl.com/stats/skaters?reportType=game&dateFrom=2025-10-07&dateTo=2025-10-27&gameType=2&playerPlayedFor=franchise.25&sort=points,goals,assists&page=0&pageSize=50
Thanks so much for the tip, Armchair! It’s good to know I counted right!
Imagine putting a right handed shooter on your PP in the Nuge (Letestu/Ovechkin) position….who’d a thunk ..— now put Leon on the other side…..man….
I thought the same thing on Savoie’s 3rd goal last night. I hate to take Nuge off the PP, but with Hyman net-front and Bouchard on the blue line, McDavid would have more options as he roves around the offensive zone.
A few items that have me feeling hopeful this playoffs, despite a turbulent season:
I think you’re right and Bouchard doesn’t even crack the top three.
I would have picked ‘won’t be fooled again’ for the Oilers, hits on many levels.
I do think Dahlin has a good case for the Norris. Wouldn’t complain if they gave it to him.
Would have guessed you would be picking makar.
Why? I would pick Bouchard but don’t have a problem with Dahlin.
I think Bouchard will be top-3, but honestly there’s a whole bunch of guys who are going to get votes from their local writers. Bouchard, Werenski, Makar, Hutson, Hughes, Seider, Dahlin, Sanderson, Karlsson and Schaeffer could all end up with 1st place votes.
Yes Bouchard will be the token addition to the 3 finalists since he’s scored the most – NHL can’t deny that.
Maybe, I think the Oilers suffer from a nostalgia factor.
The same reason all the old popular stuff from the 80,/90s is popular again or at least brought to our attention again is the people of that vintage make those decisions today.
Problem is most people outside of Edmonton and especially the east hated those Oilers.
I think Drai should have won the Hart last year and if he played anywhere else he probably would have.
For that reason Bouchard comes in 4th or 5th.
I lived out east for a few years. There’s jealousy, cloaked in hatred, for those Oilers teams and this hatred and jealousy continues. It’s stupid, cause if you know hockey, you should give credit where credit is due, and they just stupidly resent the Oilers for those good years. I wasn’t a big fan of the Habs growing up, cause they were so good, but can honestly say I admired the well oiled machine they were. How could you ignore excellence like Lafleur, Robinson, Dryden etc. You can’t, cause to do so is silly. Too bad they’re so shallow and no doubt it effects voting
Yeah, it’s amplified because of how bad the leafs were.
Valid point. You gotta wonder how miserable it is to be a leafs fan. We had our DOD but man they have suffered a long time
Beyond excited for a first round series against the Drakes, and hopeful to see the good guys serve some long overdue retribution. Love that there are still four Oilers who played in that series still with the club (should be 5, missin’ ya Klef). Nobody from that 2017 HEIM squad is left, believe Cam Fowler was the last man standing before they shipped him off to STL last season.
Duck Season!
Playoffs baby! And a nice little break until Monday.
Win it all or lose in game 7 of round 1 so the men get a summer of rest after a couple of long hard years.
Not Strange Brew, the movie?
What a hoser!
Oilers success will depend on how quickly they remove Rico from the lineup
Success will depend on how healthy Drai is.
Yes I was assuming his presumed mcl sprain will be healed in near future
He has the pain threshold of a cadaver.
Perhaps – he is the logical exit from the lineup for Dickinson (including based on today’s lines) but coach likes vets and he likes Rico and he IS a top PK guy on the team.
Samanski could be at risk – lets see how everyone plays early (presuming Dickinson isn’t in to start the series).
Dickinson is a vet too and a top PK guy.
Vancouver’s AHL team was the right team for the Oilers to meet right before the playoffs! Lowetide, I think your Ingram numbers are from another game.. I don’t think Van got 24 shots, and he only let in one!
right you are and I thank yoU!
I’m appreciating the xGA numbers! We’re starting to get a better mathematical sense of what’s happening in the crease. I’d suggest adding WIN%. My favourite goalie stat.
Ummmm… Ingram allowed one goal on twelve shots
Set some lofty goals for last night’s game, maybe I’ll go grab a lotto and see if the Patty Dach Supremacy can spread some wealth.
Glad the boys showed up and trounced a team that they should. I watched some of the Ducks’ game and they can play really well. Q has them playing a lot like the panthers – they overload and pressure the puck and were keeping structure, at least against the Preds. They also attack with support, and that’s why I think they had the season they did. Also some dangerous forwards and dinks on the blue line
They are considered a young team but do have veteran players. The Oilers should beat them, but if they mess around the Ducks can make you pay. Can’t wait until Monday
They are very dangerous on both ends of the ice. Expect some exciting high scoring games which will be buried in very late start times
If the Oilers play like they did last night, they have another long playoff run in store. Not discounting Anaheim but thats a very lucky first round draw. Very lucky to get in giving up 288 goals