Lake Huron Rolls, Superior Sings

The prospects who linger in the AHL are unlikely to unlock careers at the top of an NHL roster for any significant amount of time during their careers. The American league is a great place for players to smooth out the edges, streamline their game, spend the winter months in a wind tunnel to figure out how to make themselves more effective aerodynamic forces. What does that mean for the current Condors.

THE ATHLETIC!

• Lowetide: Why the Oilers beat the Kings — and can beat the Golden Knights
• Lowetide: 6 biggest AHL Bakersfield Condors stories from 2022-23 season
• DNB: Oilers move on to Round 2 after Kailer Yamamoto’s goal rescues them from Stuart Skinner’s blooper
• Lowetide: What’s Oilers prospect Dylan Holloway’s future NHL role?
• Lowetide: Is Oilers’ Kailer Yamamoto playing his final games for Edmonton?
• DNB: Oilers’ Game 5 win had Jay Woodcroft’s coaching instincts all over it
• Lowetide: Oilers should stay the course no matter what happens against Kings
• DNB: How Zach Hyman capped Oilers’ season-saving comeback
• Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
• DNB: Oilers need secondary scoring to get back into series
• Lowetide: Key early Oilers vs. Kings matchups that are impacting the series
• DNB: Oilers’ playoff excitement, expectations have already given way to Game 1 pain again
• Lowetide: How winning the Stanley Cup would change the Oilers organization
• DNB: Connor McDavid, the NHL’s best player, has ‘freed his mind’: Will an Oilers Stanley Cup follow?
• Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
• Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022

GRADUATIONS 2022-23

• LW Dylan Holloway 51 games, 3-6-9
• G Stuart Skinner 50 games, 2.73 .914
• LD Philip Broberg 46 games, 1-6-7
• RD Vincent Desharnais 36 games, 0-5-5
• LD Markus Niemelainein 23 games, 0-0-0
• LW James Hamblin 10 games, 0-0-0
• G Matthew Berlin 1 game, 0.00 GAA, 1 SP

It’s reasonable to project the first three names as legit contributors for multiple seasons, and that’s a win. Added to those three, Vincent Desharnais is a unique player in a very specific role. Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod are recent graduates, with Ethan Bear plus Caleb Jones traded but still part of the pipeline over the past four seasons.

If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular at 20, it bodes well for an NHL career, but does not guarantee it.

Two men turned the trick this season, Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio. That makes 20 men since 2010 who played successfully as AHL regulars age 20. Carter Savoie did not reach the threshold, due mostly to injury. He did show a great deal of potential.

Aside from Bourgault and Tullio, others who established themselves as regulars in the AHL since 2010: Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Tyler Benson, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Kailer Yamamoto, Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Mike Kesselring, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway.

Of those 20 names, only Paajarvi (briefly, as a rookie), Bear (effectively, with Darnell Nurse), Bouchard (full blown success) and Yamamoto (most of four seasons) reached the NHL and played in a feature role. That’s an important item to remember when projecting the current group.

The shocking number: 10 of the 20 have come in the last four seasons. I think the Oilers are drafting better but also believe the organization is giving these men more minor-league at-bats and roles in which they can succeed. One final note: AHL points are important, but not a guarantee. Benson was just shy of a point-per-game at age 20, but was not able to establish himself as an NHL player.

What do the last four minor-league seasons have in common? Ken Holland.

Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past 21 is having some issues and may spend time meandering.

It’s pretty much universally true, even for players who eventually find success like Stuart Skinner. He turned the corner in 2020-21, age 22 by the time his season began that year.

Names like Raphael Lavoie, Mike Kesselring, Dmitri Samorukov, Phil Kemp and Olivier Rodrigue would quality in this category. It doesn’t mean they won’t make it, but it does mean NHL debuts will occur later in entry contracts, and in some cases, once the second contract is in place. All turned some kind of corner this season in a positive way, so I think it’s possible one or more will have an NHL career.

Cooper Marody and Tyler Benson could never get out of the meandering zone.

If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect by age 22, you’re in trouble. The players who will be successful have played at least some games in the NHL during entry deals.

Raphael Lavoie was dangerously close to going over this line, but recovered and then flourished during the 2022-23 season. He’s an important player to discuss at this point in his career. I think there’s a sense he will land on a skill line this fall, and history suggests that is unlikely. He has emerged as a player who uses his size well, shoots even more than when he arrived in the leauge, and keeps his feet moving.

Expect him to start on a depth line and his rise may never come. A Kailer Yamamoto level first four seasons in the NHL is likely for Lavoie. His career progress more closely resembles Tyler Pitlick through three minor-league seasons.

Here’s the counter to that idea: His dominant skill is his shot. Quick release, heavy, accurate, he often changes the angle slightly before release. He can beat goalies clean from range. That’s a very specific and valuable skill. He shouldn’t be projected for a ‘Yamamoto in 2019-20’ arrival, but there are elements to his story that invite comparisons for that exceptional 10-week run by No. 56.

Exceptions are college men, who often turn pro at 22.

That list of 20 men who established themselves as AHL regulars (age 20) included several college men (Tyler Pitlick, Jujhar Khaira, Mike Kesselring, Dylan Holloway) but most land in the minors two years later.

This year’s team has several men who arrived age 22 or later. Noah Philp delivered such a strong season it’s reasonable to believe he will get a full shot at a roster spot in the fall. He turned a corner mid-season and passed several veteran centers ont he roster. Impressive first pro season. Phil Kemp played his first full AHL season at 22, and I think he has a chance to play NHL games. Ryan Fanti didn’t have a strong pro debut, but will get another chance next season. Carl Berglund is just getting started.

Yanni Kaldis and Luke Esposito are on AHL contracts but have played key roles for Bakersfield in recent seasons. Alex Peters, also on an AHL deal, has played so well out of college I can see him getting an NHL deal someday (AHL for the season to come).

No matter what you and I think about a specific AHL player, the largest category of player in the minors is ‘tweener’.

The truth is that ‘tweeners’ are the biggest AHL category and point totals can fool you. Rob Schremp was a tweener, he scored 53 points in 69 AHL games at age 20 (not quite Benson levels). Anton Lander was a tweener, Ty Rattie a tweener. Tyler Benson? Tweener. Marc Pouliot, Teemu Hartikainen and Linus Omark land as tweeners despite my belief they had more in them. There’s luck, good and bad, in making it from the tweener division. Part of luck is injury, and part of luck is management changes.

Current players who appear to be tweeners include James Hamblin (Philp is going to eat his lunch) and Benson. Holland’s 50-man has fewer tweeners on it, the first time the total numbers have been reduced since the Sather era. Sather’s minor league teams always had guys like Dan Currie on them, guys who clearly had NHL skill but couldn’t break through a deep depth chart at the NHL level. Edmonton is matriculating back to that kind of situation, still miles to go.

If we make a list of rfa’s each summer, we can probably pick the cuts and be pretty close.

It’s usually so obvious. One year ago, when doing to Farm Workers post, I wrote “it’s like shooting fish in a barrel this summer. Ryan McLeod will get a full NHL deal, but the minor league RFA’s (Brendan Perlini, Benson, Safin, Filip Berglund) could all go. I’m not sure about Perlini and perhaps someone in the organization believes Benson could be a depth player but Holland runs a tight ship.” Perlini left, Benson stayed, but it didn’t matter.

On this year’s team, NHL RFA’s Evan Bouchard, Klim Kostin and Ryan McLeod will all get signed, and Stuart Skinner was such a priority he’s signed already. Among the Bakersfield RFA’s, count on the return of Olivier Rodrigue, Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp and probably Phil Kemp. Holland’s 50-man list is tight tight tight compared to Peter Chiarelli’s, or need I remind you of Nolan Vesey.

Dan Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera are the success stories in this study.

It’s the key takeaway. The skill forwards, the ones who make it as top-six NHL forwards, spent little or no time in the minors. It isn’t a stop that is required. Raphael Lavoie’s stay is a tell, it just is. This fact may also offer us some advice on a player like Holloway, although he touches the puck so much and did deliver impressive offense in his 12 games with the Condors this season.

My top candidates for the new Cleary-Pisani-Chimera are Lavoie, Bourgault, Philp and Tullio. I would have included Kesselring but they traded him. Olivier Rodrigue belongs in this category, too.

FUTURE NHLERS VIA THE MINORS, BY YEAR

Here is a list of men who played in the minors, the season they arrived in the NHL, and their career games.

• 2009-10: Devan Dubnyk (542); Taylor Chorney (166); Jeff Deslauriers (62).
• 2010-11: Jeff Petry (864); Linus Omark (79); Teemu Hartikainen (52).
• 2011-12: Magnus Paajarvi (467).
• 2012-13: Chris VandeVelde (278).
• 2013-14: Oscar Klefbom (378); Martin Marincin (227); Mark Arcobello (139).
• 2014-15: Tyler Pitlick (386); Jordan Oesterle (349), Brad Hunt (288); Iiro Pakarinen (134).
• 2015-16: Jujhar Khaira (336); Brandon Davidson (180); Anton Slepyshev (102), Griffin Reinhart (37).
• 2016-17: Jesse Puljujarvi (334); Laurent Brossoit (122).
• 2017-18: Ethan Bear (251).
• 2018-19: Kailer Yamamoto (244); Caleb Jones (217); Cooper Marody (7).
• 2019-20: William Lagesson (60); Tyler Benson (38).
• 2020-21: Evan Bouchard (184).
• 2021-22: Ryan McLeod (183); Markus Niemelainen (43)
• 2022-23: Philip Broberg (69); Stuart Skinner (64); Dylan Holloway (51); Vincent Desharnais (36)

I have an Uncle, we’ll call him Bill but that isn’t his real name. He was his father’s son and I mine, so we didn’t see the world the same way. No worries, he is a good and reasonable man. He gave me my first drink of alcohol, straight rye, age 11. Don’t be mad, I begged him and he asked my Dad before giving it to me. Bill and me never saw eye to eye on pretty much everything, and there was a moment in each of our lives that I’ll never forget. I had to give him some family news he didn’t like (and I don’t blame him) and he didn’t like it came from me (Bill didn’t see me as a person able to handle the responsibility of the moment, and that’s fine too).

The only thing Bill and I agreed on? Gordon Lightfoot. He spent about one hour during a long ago afternoon telling me what Don Quixote (the album) meant to him. It was heartfelt and it was real. My album is Sit Down, Young Stranger by the way. The power of Gordon Lightfoot is in that conversation. Simple words to describe complicated things. “If you could read my mind, what a tale my thoughts would tell” is 12 words, common words, but in the mind of Gordon Lightfoot they became the story of a love gained and lost, and a complicated moment conveyed simply to millions, with a lovely melody subtly building to the chorus. I don’t know where that gift came from, but Gordon Lightfoot could tell us about ourselves in a way no one has been able to, before or since. He was a great artist, great Canadian. He will be missed greatly by all of us.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

Huge day today, 10-2 TSN 1260. We’ll preview the second round of the NHL playoffs and talk CFL draft. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!