This is Magnus Paajarvi. In his final season in Sweden, he scored 12 goals on 160 shots (7.5 shooting percentage). That’s a low shooting percentage for a player headed to the NHL and projected for a skill line.
In his rookie NHL season, his shooting percentage was 8.3 percent, a terrific number considering his SEL total the previous season. He took 180 shots, a further indication that he could have at least some success in the NHL even if his shooting percentage didn’t reach 10.
Paajarvi scored eight goals on 58 shots in 380 minutes playing with winger Linus Omark. Omark was an offensive virtuoso but wasn’t handy at the other end of the ice. Sam Gagner was Paajarvi’s most common center that season, scoring .72 goals-60 with the young phenom.
Paajarvi-Omark scored, but were outscored 15-19 and the line (including Gagner) went 9-15 in 215 minutes.
You might think Kailer Yamamoto’s situation was similar to Paajarvi’s but that isn’t true at all. Yamamoto’s issue is his cap hit. If he was making $1.175 million Edmonton would find him a roster spot.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why playoff experience for Oilers rookies is an important building block
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- DNB: The Oilers are out of the playoffs and there’s plenty of blame to go around
- Lowetide: Oilers prospect Matvey Petrov and his possible future
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl combo is the ultimate luxury: ‘It’s magic’
- Lowetide: Oilers’ forward-heavy pipeline suggests defence-driven 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
PERSONAL OPINION
It’s always a dangerous time when high hopes are dashed by a bitter playoff disappointment. If you’re a Carolina Hurricanes fan, today is a tough day. You had every right to believe in that team and yet the Hurricanes were swept by the Florida Panthers. Things happen in a normal year that defy explanation, and in a year when the officiating is astonishing, it is especially difficult to marry anticipated results to actual results.
I think that makes the next few weeks dangerous for any organization. A misstep this summer could put the Edmonton Oilers in a less attractive situation than the current state of affairs. This Oilers team had a fine run going before Vegas happened, and I’m not at all certain the team should make any significant moves.
For me, signing Evan Bouchard is Job 1, and adding Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin from the rfa group is important. Raphael Lavoie, Noah Philp, Phil Kemp and Olivier Rodrigue are also worth re-signing. That’s every RFA by the way, a good sign that the organization is producing young talent. The downbeat? Bouchard is going to get paid, McLeod and Kostin are reaching a point where the team has to decide if they fit the budget.
I’m not sure the defense should be meddled with, to be honest. In 2022-23, the Nurse-Ceci duo played 420 minutes against elite competition, won the goal share (56 percent) and allowed 2.0 goals-60. The DFF percentage (Smart Corsi) was 48.1, slightly better than the rest of the team. In 2021-22, the pairing played 252 minutes together, owning a 56.8 DFF percentage but only 4-5 goals.
I believe the Ekholm-Bouchard pairing can take on some of the heavy load, and in fact that’s what happened after the deadline.
The room to grow on defense should come from Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais, with Brett Kulak as mentor on the third pairing. Desharnais had the third highest defensive zone starts five-on-five among regulars (19.38), trailing only Nurse (20.08) and Ceci (19.93). Coach Jay Woodcroft found value in this player, expect we’ll see this player in those situations again in 2023-24.
Markus Niemelainen is in the mix, not certain he makes the team this fall and that does make him vulnerable to trade and waivers. Edmonton will need a strong No. 8 option on the farm, he could deliver in that role.
For me, depth on NHL defense is less a worry than it’s been for some time, but the Condors are in need of repair. Max Wanner turns pro this season and he impressed as a junior. Edmonton would be wise to sign some college, junior or Euro free agents who are young and can push over the next couple of years. I’m satisfied the top-four blue can get it done if Ceci is healthy. Luca Munzenberger signing a pro contract wouldn’t surprise me at all.
I believe the forwards will see a tweak. Edmonton can’t run Kailer Yamamoto at $3.1 million on a depth line, and he had a difficult season in 2022-23. His situation and that of Paajarvi in 2010-11 are a little different. KY makes enough on the cap that his being unable to deliver (through injury or performance) makes him a trade target. His attractive buyout number doubles down on the idea. It’s unfortunate because the guy can play, but I can’t see a way clear for him.
Edmonton has options to replace him, and once Kostin is signed we’ll see even more options appear. If you consider Yamamoto played most often with the elite centers, then the scoring numbers for these wingers brings KY’s dilemma into sharp focus. This is pts-60 at five-on-five:
- Zach Hyman 2.37
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 2.14
- Warren Foegele 2.09
- Klim Kostin 2.02
- Evander Kane 1.96
- Kailer Yamamoto 1.53
Yamamoto makes more than Kostin, and a little more than Foegele, and played with 97 or 29 more often. If you need to pick four wingers for the top two lines, and Hyman-Nuge-Kane are locks, who would you choose? Let’s look at the goal share five-on-five:
- Klim Kostin 61
- Kailer Yamamoto 57
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 56
- Zach Hyman 55
- Warren Foegele 55
- Evander Kane 45
Yamamoto scores well here, but Kostin’s number is stronger while playing with lesser centers. I don’t know if Kostin is the answer, maybe it’s Dylan Holloway or Raphael Lavoie. I cheer for Yamamoto, for me he was a key pick in the organization’s history. A team that drafted Coke machines for a decade finally chose an undersized forward because he had high skill. I love the story. I wish there was a way to make this work. I don’t see it.
In my opinion, Ken Holland’s job this summer is to sign the RFA’s, get Derek Ryan under contract and see if Nick Bjugstad and Mattias Janmark are interested in an affordable deal.
The loud noises can be made at the deadline, if Jack Campbell and Cody Ceci can’t deliver and internal solutions don’t deliver.
If I had one item that Holland might want to contemplate, it’s trading Dylan Holloway. If he has real value, that might be an avenue to an upgrade for the Yamamoto replacement. I’m not sure that’s the right way forward, but Holloway’s offense so far is Yamamoto-level.
Other than that, my personal opinion is the GM should keep his powder dry.
Damn do I love playoff hockey and playoff overtime hockey.
Great game!
Seems that Kyle Dubas and Sidney Crosby had a late night meeting in Pittsburgh that reportedly lasted for hours.
https://dailyhive.com/toronto/ex-leafs-dubas-crosby-meetup
Jack Eichel reminds me of Billy Guerin who retired with 429 Goals. Eichel has 180 Goals and he’ll be 27 years old at the start of this years regular season.
I don’t see it
Maybe Matt TK
Eichel has a heavy shot same as Billy Guerin both can skate down the wing and release a shot on the fly. Tkachuk Goals all come in the paint.
Daily Faceoff is talking about the Canes. They need a superstar and listed all the offense they don’t get from top players
I’d say Rod has a big part in that. He’s you can win reg season playing tighter than everyone else. But, if there is no method of beating teams in a series, well
Rod loves his team to play like he did. Hard, meat and potatoes. I don’t think it works like it used to. It’s not enough just getting traffic and hammering shots if you can. Florida is playing a full court press, high pace and attacking fast before a team sets up, and collapsing to their net taking the easy away. It stumped the heavy system teams and the less assertive Leafs
It would probably suit the Oilers pretty well to play like that
Important to remember that two of their most impactful forwards, Svechnikov and Pacioretty did not play.
Butbthey certainly could use another one.
They would have helped but aren’t drivers
I was saying it’s the coach being too uptight and old school based on his playing days
Look at Maurice having his team loose and flowing and defending
It’s a balance between D and O. Certainly hard to find
But they had JP!
Jesse was a healthy scratch most of the play-offs after a playing lots of regular season games in Carolina.
clearly the Hurricanes are not going to qualify him at $3M ish.
is Jesse at $1M a reasonable replacement for a traded Yamamoto or maybe the 3rd RW is more palatable to him now.
Either Jesse or Yamo at $1MM would be a bargain.
Of course, Jesse will not be signing with the Oilers – can’t imagine it.
Jesse could fall to a PTO this fall if Carolina dumps him. Jesse and his numbskull agent completely tanked his value in the Tar Heel State.
Yes, I don’t see teams lining up to sign him in early July
Holland offered him a contract prior to the trade to CAR – “a contract that started with a 1” according to Holland
He and his agent may regret that decision, but it appears the change of scenery was the priority
I thought for years that Jesse would be the perfect fit in the Tar Heel State with his buddy Aho and all the other Finns.
Time to stop blaming the Oilers for him being a bust. If he couldn’t thrive playing for Woodcroft, I don’t know why anyone thought he’d succeed with a far more demanding coach like Rod the Bod.
Jesse will head back to Finland, and enjoy a good life playing pro hockey in Europe without having the face the pressure cooker of playing in the NHL.
Of note, a successful result for E. Kane in his bankruptcy proceedings.
Not totally done – still some claims out there but I presume this is a big load off:
https://theathletic.com/4552557/2023/05/25/evander-kane-bankruptcy-oilers-ruling/https://theathletic.com/4552557/2023/05/25/evander-kane-bankruptcy-oilers-ruling/
— LT hears things so I listen. If I understand correctly: buying out KY would mean they have an extra $2mm this year to replace him
— so can a 2mm player be found that is better than the $3.1mm we pay for kailer?
— plus in 2 years we lose 400kish of cap
I sure hope a buyout of Lt would cost $2m, but I don’t think that it would free up any cap space for the Oilers.
How much of the $2M does LT get?
You’ll need all of that and more to buy Tyson Barrie’s ex-home in Mill Creek
https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/25520666/9213-97-st-nw-edmonton-mill-creek-ravine-north
There has to be an accountant here, anyone?
— I just don’t think the risk adjusted potential of hitting on a shiny new 2mm player warrants the buyout of a bonafide 3mm one that is underperforming.
— Buying him out is the lazy way out. But Oil have done lazy things when it suits them sometimes.
— send him to minor, trade him at deadline get creative with IR. Teams do t buy out players like KY
I don’t think they need to buy him out, then can trade him with $500K retained for the same effect this season.
The $2.6MM cap savings would not go to an external replacement necessarily but likely to help with the Bouchard and McLeod re-signs and the opportunity for a guy like Holloway to play 6F in Yamo’s stead for $925K.
Sending him to the minors, if he clears waivers, only saves $1.15MM and that extra $1.5MM of cap savings via trade would be imperative.
Trading him at the deadline does not help the team build in the off-season – they need cap out to sign Bouchard – end stop.
Regular IR comes with zero cap relief.
LTIR would be a horrible result – they are finally out of it (and its terrible). Of course, unless the player is hurt long term and unable to play – well, the player, the NHL and the NHLPA will have something to say about that tactic.
I responded to the statement that “teams don’t buyout players like KY” last night with three recent examples of NHL players, under 25, with one year left, that were bought out due to contract not being value.
Of course, I don’t think they will buy him out but they certainly need his cap space.
— they would be able to get a 2.6mm player for 1 year then have 400k hit the following year.
— He’s 24 years old. For sure a legit player. For sure not top-6 on a championship team.
— Bad managers compound one mistake (his existing contract) with another one (buying him out). The examples you provided, let’s just say those players and transactions had a lot more hair on them…
LT: so your buyout number is $2mm.. sounds like fair market!
I’m not sure I understand most of your post:
1) a trade with $600K retained essentially has the same effect on the Oilers cap this year with the added benefit of no cap penalty next season. I think Yamamoto is traceable at $3.1MM but could be wrong. I’d be very surprised if he’s not traceable at $2.5MM
2) Similar to Nichuskin when bought out.
3) The GM that bought out Valeri N. has his team in the WCF right now.
Buying out Yamamoto doesn’t get you his replacement. It pays for Bouchard’s raise.
His replacement likely doesn’t come till the trade deadline, until the Oilers save enough cap space for a $6 million dollar forward for two months.
Yamamoto’s replacements till then will be a combination of Kostin, Holloway, Lavoie, or any other million dollar UFA’s Holland signs.
I think it is possible to trade…er…give away… Yamamoto to a bottom feeder.
The extra cap space from the buyout would be closer to $2.5MM.
The Oilers could trade Yamamoto with apx $500K retained for the same cap savings this season and no second year cap hit.
Wingers weren’t good enough. For me you use the two that are ready, in house and low cost
There’s not pressuring players and there’s facing the cap. Build them up and go. RL and DH are not small or immature players. Other teams do this and we envy their players
Most agree that Yamamoto is a prime disposition target.
Some think a decent asset can be brought back – not many, but some – Rishaug suggested 3rd round pick.
Some think negative trade value and a real sweetener would need to be attached and they should buy him out.
Some are in the middle – tradable without a sweetener but very nominal return.
—————
In any event, to the extent they can’t trade him straight up, I would think they could trade him with $500K retained, at a cap hit of $2.6MM – certainly a team will take that one for a season, right?
That would be better than the buyout – same cap hit for the Oil this year with no second dead cap hit. With Lucic off the books, that would be one of three retained salary slots and only for one year so no issue, right?
Right
I think Yammo has some value to the right team. The Oilers can retain up to $1.55M, I think he’ll be moveable with that much retained. I’m not suggesting they retain that much, but salary retention is one of Kenny’s options
I also think we could see Yamamoto on waivers pre/post draft to gauge the interest – I think Kenny would prefer an asset back, but the cap space is the real asset
There is no such thing as off-season waivers.
Yes, that’s my bad – I was thinking of unconditional waivers prior to the buyout process
There appears to have been off season waivers in previous CBA’s – the example I was thinking of was Sheldon Souray. The Oilers did waive him in July of 2010 with 2 years left on his deal – nobody claimed him of course.
The Oilers waived him again in June of 2011 and subsequently bought him out with 1 year remaining on his deal
Well will see what the rest of the league thinks a top 6 winger with 10 Goals playing with arguably the best passer in the league is worth. If Yamo had 2 years left on his contract like Kassian had last year I believe it would of cost about the same. Holland blew his wad on Ekholm we have no more sweeteners to rid ourselves of watching Yamo in the top 6 ever again. If Woody would of used Yamo properly like a swiss army knife kinda like Letestu maybe he stays but Holland has seen enough thankfully. Buyout!
Is there any reason we are attempting rosters that fit under the cap? I would say it is much more likely Holland goes over the cap and brings the roster size down.
I would love to be like 1 million under. That’s what, 4 million in space at deadline?
Almost all rosters posited are less than 23 players full.
If Burns really tap Turtles cup hard he would have never been able to come back last evening. That was a terrible display of a dive and the refs didn’t call it last evening.
We only have $6.7 mill in cap space.
We need to sign 6 players to get to 22.
Bouchard, McLeod, Kostin and Ryan to come back.
Bouchard $4 mill (1 or 2 year bridge)
McLeod $2.5 mill (3 plus years )
Kostin $1.25 mill (1 year)
Ryan $1 mill (1 year)
Two vets at $1 mill
Equals $10.75 mill
We need to clear $4 mill in space minimum without adding anyone significant like Mayfield (my first choice) .
Yamo and one of Kulak or Foegele have to be moved to make any of it work. Meaning we clear $5.85 in cap space.
If you move Ceci and replace him with Mayfield it’s also doable. But zero cap wiggle room.
Buyout Yamamoto, the McLeod number is high.
This past year and this year was and is our window. I believe Leon is man enough to let our G.M know next Summer whether or not he’s going to stay a Oiler, same goes for Connor in the following year. If both want to go on to greeener pastures our G.M needs to maximize our return. I can also see Nurse wanting out as well if his buddies leave. Our 3 G.M’s since the Leon draft have been fair and professional with our 2 studs. Treliving tried to nickel and dime Johnny as well as turning the fans on Johnny during contract negotiations this treatment of their star player was not forgotten. I’m going to enjoy the next 1-2 years as the new boys on the bus could be broken up.
The window remains open for one more year IMO but it’s likely we’ve already seen peak McDavid and Draisaitl.
Those who are relying on further development of prospects (none of whom are blue chip) don’t tend to look at the flip side of that coin as players like Hyman, Nuge, Kane, Ekholm, Campbell and others move into their 30’s with the inevitable decline in play dictated by aging curves.
Dallas is a good object lesson here as they paid big for Benn and Seguin but their decline has been staved off by an incredible run of drafting. Given the Oilers lack of picks in the short term, there will be little relief coming from that route and Holland oddly has not been active in signing NCAA, CHL or European free agents while some teams like Colorado and Vancouver has signed a few.
Whomever takes over as the next GM is going to have some critical decisions to make.
The elephant in the room. The Oilers cup window.
You don’t get enough credit, but sometimes you’re right on the money here.
I don’t think enough people are talking about the window, because it’s an uncomfortable conversation.
iIf Draisaitl extends, we probably have two years, but after that, there’s the loss of the surplus value of his cap hit plus aging to contend with.
Holland reached on the Broberg and Holloway picks. He traded down on the Bourgault pick. There’s a sag in the pipeline with Broberg, Holloway, and Bourgeault.
Then the Oilers have a lot of cap on the wrong side of 30 in the players you’ve mentioned.
Either way, next year is the best chance they have to win the cup.
What would you do with Campbell?
As you know I was very much opposed to the Campbell signing because of his brutal/brilliant performances in Toronto and Los Angeles. A potentially fatal mistake for Holland. At this point, I think you need to see if you can coax a good season out of him since none of the alternatives seem feasible.
The real danger is, if he falters again next season and Skinner is playoff Skinner, you’re basically hooped.
It’s weird that there’s never been mention of an injury. Usually when a goalie struggles like he did at his age, there’s some injury that they’re fighting through.
With a buyout, the cap hit is $1.54 and $1.14 for the next two years.
I’d probably buy him out and try to acquire someone from one of the goalie factories (Rangers, Capitals) systems.
JP and I have recently collaborated on a deep dive through goalies in the past 10 years who’ve had struggles.
Thomas Greiss was the best-case scenario in terms of rebounds.
Dadbot rebounded with a few years over league average including one season as a low-end starter.
James Reimer rebounded as a backup one year and another like Talbot as a low-end starter.
JP pulled up a few other players like Goalie Bob, Fred Andersen, and Carey Price, but I don’t think they’re reasonable comps.
A little better than half of the guys never rebounded.
While a buyout looks attractive for the first couple of seasons it does get more expensive and of course they would have dead cap for 8 years.
With the aging core likely not bringing value for 4-5 seasons (they all have NMC) it would be very easy to dig a very deep hole.
Holland is not buying out Campbell this is ridiculous. Skinner might have a sophomore jinx season and Campbell could possibly have his best year yet. I believe it’s toughest on Goalies playing for a new team it usually takes a year to get comfortable with your D-men and new system. Add in new equipment, new Arena, new City, new blah,blah,blah. Anyhow I’m one of the few that believes in Campbell and he will get his opportunity to win back the tier 1 and tier 2 fans. Woody fuked up he had the saviour at the end of the bench.
The big problem I see with Campbell is you just can’t trust him.
As I mentioned earlier he had massive swings in performance in both Toronto and LA and that’s why they moved on from him.
He may very well rebound next season but, if he doesn’t, you’re counting on a sophomore who struggled in the playoffs.
If Campbell were even league average last season, the Oilers would have finished ahead of the Knights and won the Western Conference. Maybe Skinner wouldn’t have played 50 games and would have been rested more for the playoffs.
Maybe Flattop’s magic 1-1-3 trap stifles Vegas’ forecheck…
A lot of maybes right there.
If Campbell struggles next season, you can’t really do anything (after the buyout window) unless he goes on LTIR. There’s no outs.
If Campbell struggles next season, a goalie will be the target at the trade deadline and Campbell will be sent to the AHL
Oilers need a Russian goalie!
I mean, it remains true after all the dust has settled that the Oilers had a better points percentage in games Campbell started than ones that Skinner started. Somehow. So I don’t know how much water the ‘if Campbell were better…” argument holds.
The more important point moving forward is how does buying out Campbell help you. Setting aside the 8 years of dead cap, what do you do with the ~$3.5M for the next 2 seasons.
You mentioned the other day signing/trading for another guy at $2M. And then presumably spending the rest of the $3.5M elsewhere? So:
1) Who is the $2M replacement and how likely is he to be better than Campbell next season. And,
2) If you’ve spent the $3.5M from the buyout, how do you still have the ‘flexibility’ you’ve talked about if Skinner and/or the $2M replacement aren’t getting it done?
For me the answers are 1) probably less than 50/50 the new guy is better, and 2) well you don’t actually have any more flexibility.
And unless you’re way, way on the other sides of those answers, then the almost $14M buyout definitely does not make sense.
We know with almost certainty that Campbell is not going to be bought out this off-season.
Sure the community could still take about such a scenario but can we all agree that its just “fun” and its not in the realm of reasonableness?
In any event, I’m very much on board with JP above.
I think the chances that a replacement $2MM goalie being better than Campbell next year is less that 50%. Who is this magical goalie is is even reasonably likely to be better than Campbell let alone is likely enough to be better that it warrants a material 8-year dead cap hit for a little amount of extra cap to use elsewhere?
I keep reading “you can’t trust Campbell” because of his history of hot and cold streaks. Well, the Oilers don’t need to trust Campbell to be consistently good all year long – they have a a second goalie who has shown to be able to carry the load at the NHL level in a 1A/1B type scenario. Campbell can have his ups and downs as long as its more along the line of of his historical norms as opposed to last year – and its reasonable to think that will be the case
You know that hot streak Bobrovsky is on? Campbell has had hot streaks of even better play (by the numbers) – he very well could do that in May one year as well.
Last season, Campbell faced 1027 shots. League average save percentage was .904. The delta between league average save percentage and Campbell works out 16.432 goals.
Now, Dellow is a hell of a lot more clever than I am, unfortunately, but he once worked out once that it takes 4 goals to equal one win. I have no clue how he did this calculation, but that’s my recollection of what the number was.
Working off Dellow’s number, you get 4 additional wins from Campbell playing at league average. This equates to 8 standing points or 117 points, second to Boston.
Edit –> Kyle Gipe has a different number and a live link.
His number is 5.45. In fairness to Dellow, his number was probably actually 4.5, but it would have been something I read back in 2009 if my memory lapse can be forgiven.
Still, this would have been 3 wins or 6 more points, or 115 points. Still second to Boston.
I meant that Campbell’s record already greatly out-performed his SV% this season, so it’s not really fair to claim he would have had more wins on top if he’d had a better SV%.
The 2017 Lightning’s number is 8.5, that’s the highest I’ve ever seen calculated.
Even if we work off that, it’s 1-2 more wins or 2-4 more standing points.
One thing about the old Red Wings is how cheap I always thought they were when it came to goaltenders. They were happy to go with relative journeymen and I believe it cost them 1-2 cups.
Oilers I fear seem to have a similar trajectory. In the goalie management area.
We should probably try to hash this out a bit more.
We’ve got the goalies who rebounded but you are discounting because they’re in a different tier:
-Andersen
-Price
-Bobrovsky
-Greiss is the lone goalie you’re counting as a rebound.
-Reimer (IMO) did what he always did after his poor season. He’d only started 40 games twice before the season in question (age 30), and has done it twice since. I’m not sure how you don’t count him as a rebound.
-Talbot’s SV% recovered but he was backup the year after his poor season. He was then a starter (above league ave SV%) for 2 more seasons 33/56 and 49/82 GP. His SV% at 32/33/34 were .919, .915, .911. I would consider that a rebound, clearly.
So who is somewhat comparable and failed to recover.
-Grubauer’s season you mention was only his age 29 season so doesn’t really count. But it’s true that he did not recover the next year (ie – this season).
-Holtby is probably the worset case example out there. He was a high end and high workload starter through his 20’s. He showed considerable erosion in his SV% in his age 28 and 29 seasons, but the wheels fell off at age 30. Moved to Vancouver at 31 and continued to struggle. Then a pretty good recovery (as backup) in Dallas age 32. Then retired.
-Quick mostly fits (but he was also a different tier of goalie, so we should exclude him?). He was high end until age 32, then fell off and never really recovered (though he did have a 46GP .910 season at 35).
-Mike Smith was much older so not an ideal comp. And he also had 2 ~.900 years (age 36 and 37) in a row, but he recovered to get Vezina votes at 38 – 32/56GP and .923. Then his injury plagued .915 at age 39. That’s an obvious recovery, but he’s not a good comp due to age.
I’d discounting lots of guys who fell off in their mid-30s since Campbell just turned 31.
I don’t know, who are we counting as a comparable here? It’s clearly a small group.
I see more rebounds than falling off cliffs if you look at guys who weren’t multiple years older than Campbell.
The first thing to talk about is the age cutoff I used which was 30. The reason for this cutoff is that goalies, generally, don’t improve after age 30. This is important, otherwise you could expand the sample to include goalies of all ages.
You relaxed the original criteria to include goalies who played less than 30 games or who were at .900 save percentage in the spirit of increasing the sample size, but you’re very quick to discard Grubauer because he was a month an half shy of 30 when the 2021 season started?
It strikes me as odd to be a stickler for one set of criteria when that player’s outcome doesn’t suit you, but to relax the other criteria when it does, no?
Goalies age and declined at different rates, there were a bunch of guys over 31, but you don’t want to include those in the sample?
Grubauer (age 29.875 season). Went 55 x .889 to 39 .895
Holtby (age 30 season) went 48 x .897 to 21 .889
Ward (age 32 season) 33 x .897 to retired
Chad Johnson (age 31) 36 x .891 to .884 x 10
Antii Niemi (age 33) 37 x .892 to 22 x .873
Talbot (age 31 season) went 31 .893 to 30 x .914
Greiss (age 31 season) went 27 x .892 to 43 x .927
edit–>
Reimer (age 30 season) 36 x 900 to 25 x .914
But not Andersen, Bobrovsky, Price, Reimer?
I don’t know, I just don’t see the data suggesting that Campbell is unlikely to rebound.
And these questions are the ones that need to be answered (granted, the 1st is related to what we’re arguing over).
1) Who is the $2M replacement and how likely is he to be better than Campbell next season. And,
2) If you’ve spent the $3.5M from the buyout, how do you still have the ‘flexibility’ you’ve talked about if Skinner and/or the $2M replacement aren’t getting it done?
I set a simple set of criteria to find players. When you started talking about some not being good comps, that’s the direction it shifted.
No, I don’t think Andersen, Bob, or Price are good comps. Bob didn’t rebound the following season after his .900.
Reimer’s fair.
I think the criteria you’ve set are too strict (and in the current conversation, having a starters workload plus a league average SV% is not the bar Campbell would need to clear for a buyout to be a poor choice).
But more generally, you’re holding goalies to standards post-shitty season that are higher than they had going into it. If you’re expecting a guy to potentially rebound to starters workload plus league average SV% then they should at least clear that bar before they dipped under .900, right?
To your other post, Ward was 34 when he dipped under .900, and had had 6 straight below average SV% years before that. Niemi was 33 with 3 straight below average SV% seasons before dipping under. Johnson was under league average 2 of the 3 years before dipping under .900. Similar for a bunch of guys you included initially. You can’t expect them to ‘recover’ to something they never/rarely were can you?
Also age for Ward and Niemi (and a bunch of other names you used initially).
Also, Andersen was only under the 30 game cutoff because it was the Covid season.
You’re right. I’m crazy to expect Campbell to play a starter’s workload with a league average save percentage when he’s tied for the 14 highest cap hit amounts active goalies. 🙂 That’s not accounting for Price on LTIR either.
I’ll acknowledge that Jack Campbell beat league average save percentage with a starter’s workload in the season before he tanked, Yes, but… He was in a free fall for the back half of that season… He completed this feat only once in his life. He was 30 years old by the time he accomplished this. He was also under league average two years prior, in a backup role.
Cam Ward played a starter’s workload 10 [!] times in his career. He won a Stanley cup. He once played 73 games in a season with a .923
I realize that it might be presumptuous to compare Cam Ward to the lofty accomplishments of Jack Campbell.
We could use Ward’s 29.67 y/o season. He was below league average the following season and for the rest of his career.
Johnson actually looks like a pretty good comp for Campbell.
Both players beat league average for their first time playing a starter’s workload in their 29/30 y/o seasons.
Johnson had a .920 over 45 games vs Campbell’s .914 over 49. This gives the edge to Johnson.
Johnson played 56 games prior to that season while Campbell had played 86.
Johnson had a much better 30/31 year old season than Campbell. Johnson had a .910 over 36 games vs .888 over the same number for Campbell.
After that, Johnson was finished.
Convince me that the career arc of Campbell is closer to Andersen, Bob, or Price than Chad Johnson.
Did I discount anyone? I didn’t give a list of names because I’m not sure where to draw the line. I’m mostly trying to put the numbers out there because I don’t think “a little better than half of the guys never rebounded” is very fair.
I became a stickler in at least highlighting what doesn’t fit the criteria when you included guys like Jones, Elliott, C. Anderson, Rinne, Luongo in your group of comps, as well as discounting F. Andersen, Price, Bobrovsky et al.
The article shows that goalies don’t improve ever (at least not after age 24, according to the graph). And I didn’t/don’t really agree with the age 30 cutoff. There is no cliff at 30 in that data.
Lots of the goalies I’ve looked at had sub-.900 seasons in their 20’s. I don’t think the goalies who had sub-.900 seasons in their early 30’s are any different than the ones who had them in their 20’s. Most of them recover to the range they were at before.
You dropped, Ward, Johnson, and Niemi from my original list without explanation.
I set an initial set of criteria. Price and Bob were above the cutoff I used. I set the criteria as a save percentage below .900. They were at .900
Anderson was under the 30 game cutoff as well.
I included all goalies over 30.
Roloson only had like a 100 games under is belt at 31 years old he ended up playing 606 games. Campbell has played a 175 games his shelf life is good for the remainder of his Oiler contract in my opinion. Campbell looked good to finish the year and he was fantastic in his limited time in the Playoffs. Campbell finished the year 21-9-4 so judging by his many critics on this blog if he plays average Hockey what’s his record? The man played like shit yet he won 68% of his Oiler starts.
If Draisaitl extends it means McDavid is extending also, because these cats don’t live in a bubble. Also they aren’t going to be renewing unless they believe it’s worth their while.
No one wants this to happen, but post McDavid Oilers Darnell Nurse on the other hand – is signed for years to come. I’d want to keep him around purely out of spite lmao
I had some hope for Lander and Paajarvi and I also liked Todd Nelson a lot, none stuck here, oh well, a fine flashback in time.
Nowadays, it seems the G’s and Dmen are set to return. Ceci returning healthy will help and Boosh, Bro, Des and maybe Neimo all gaining more experience, the D should be improved.
The forward group would benefit, in my opinion, with McLeod, Yamo and Foeg all moved along. Yamo and Foeg have been discussed here a lot.
McLeod is a plus skater with stone hands, low hockey IQ and couldn`t win a board battle with a similar sized junior B player. His combativness
and physicality are subpar, he’s extremely reluctant to bang bodies on the forecheck. He’s had time to show but has not, time is up.
Keeping Holloway,Janmark and Ryan with a modest amount of aggression from KH and staff (or other Condors) can improve the bottom 6.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen Janmark bang a body on the forecheck and he had less goals, in more games played, than stone-hands McLeod.
I’d like McLeod to be more consistent in his battle level but I’m certainly not giving up on the 23 year old with elite transporting skills – not at cost of apx $1.75MM pre prime.
A fascinating look at how the Panthers are winning.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/opportunity-analysis-how-the-panthers-forecheck-has-led-to-overtime-success/
Oilers should hire Joel Quenneville for head coach
I just want to point out that Joel Quenneville’s first coaching job came with the Blues, taking over mid-season in 1996-97.
He went 18-15-7 for a .538 Points Percentage, and eliminated in the first round.
Then he had a full year with the team and went:
45-29-8 for a .598 points percentage, and eliminated in the 2nd round.
Jay Woodcroft went 26-9-3 in 38 games after taking over midway last year. Thats a .724 winning percentage, and then took the team to the 3rd round.
His full year this year, he went:
50-23-9 for a .665 points percentage and took the team to the 2nd round.
TONS of missing context in these numbers, but also TONS of missing context with Quenneville in general. I think that Woodcroft is doing just fine.
Not to mention, of course, Quenneville is currently ineligible to coach in the NHL…. that is some context
When does the buyout window open and close?
The later of June 15 or 48 hours after the end of the Stanley Cup final.
There us a second window for teams that take a player to arbitration.
Thanks. With all these gambling site props they should have a buyout prop. 1 player on each team and a over-under that this certain player gets fired into the Sun or he stays on the team.
It’s (the later of) June 15 or 48 hours after the Cup is awarded
The first window closes on June 30 at 5pm EST (2nd buyout window is tied to eligible contracts and arbitration)
I’m assuming these dates haven’t been altered due to schedule changes re:COVID
The second buyout window also opens if there is player-elected arbitration – not just if a team takes a player to arbitration (which is rare).
I fully expect Kostin to file if they haven’t come to a deal prior to the QO deadline. In fact, I think there is a non-zero chance the Oilers don’t qualify Kostin if there isn’t an agreement – the arb risk with him for a contract in the $1.5MM to $1.75MM range is real.
McLeod likely files as well if there isn’t a deal in place
I wouldn’t expect either to actually to through the entire process though.
I generally agree. I’m reading/hearing all sorts of suggestions out there that include major alterations to the team and, for me, I don’t agree that’s required or a good idea. Of course, upgrades are necessary, likely at 6F and potentially top 6 right shot D but, at the same time, this was a top NHL team last season and major renovations aren’t needed.
For me, I’m fine with keeping the existing 7D, allowing Broberg to play many more minutes and asses where we (and he) are/is in February. I’m fine with seeing how Ceci potentially rebounds with, presumed, full healthy and asses in February.
I agree with this but I also believe a potential shuffle on pairings may be helpful. I believe Broberg should play, each and every night, and real minutes.
I also believe that Bouchard could be a very good partner for Nurse – they have great results over the course of the last 3 years and Bouchard is one of the better Oilers at defending zone entries. Nurse has had great success with McDavid and there is no doubt that Bouchard should be given many many many McDavid minutes.
I think Broberg as 2RD with the steadiest 2-way d-man on the team is a solid bet and there is Ceci there to step up if Broberg is struggling:
Nurse/Bouchard
Ekholm/Broberg
Kulak/Ceci
Deharnais
Yes, I play Broberg over Deharnais all day, every day (and I like Vinny – he has a role on the team but, hot damn, play the, soon to be 22 year old higher potential d-man).
I like asses as much as the next guy, but I think the word you’re looking for is “assess”.
.
That’s a very astute point!
You are missing an “s”… 😀
On Yamamoto, I am in agreement with most that he “needs to go” – they need that $3.1MM of cap space in other places and Kailer did not provide value for cap hit last season.
I would suggest that Yamamoto likely has a much better season in 2023/24 if he can stay more healthy and it being a contract year but, at the same time, his current cap hit is too expensive for the Oilers and its reasonably likely that a Dylan Holloway can at least fill the offensive gap for 6F with that departure.
Yamamoto brought/brings more to the ice that just offensive production (or lack thereof last season), with PK, usually outscoring help, etc. but a Holloway there, for example, at $925K is more cost effective.
At the same time, all the talk these days is about Jesper Fast replacing Yamamoto and being a big upgrade (and signing him at a substantial raise from his current $2MM).
Does everyone realize that Fast had 29 points in 80 games this season (and has a career high of 34 points)? Yamamoto, in a crappy year, had 25 points in 57 games, a MUCH higher scoring rate than Fast. Yes, of course, Yamamoto had “better opportunity” but for those simply thinking Fast is “better than Yamamoto” for similar money, maybe the grass isn’t always greener, right?
Well even if he could score at a similar rate as Yamo, we already know Yamo’s ceiling with the big 2 centres. Fast should be able to do at least that if not more. Also, while I don’t have the stats to back it up, there is more than just points. I believe Fast is considered the superior defensive player and if he can put up the same points while being the defensive conscience on a line with say McDavid and Kane? The outscoring is the thing that I don’t believe Yamo contributes to, especially at the cap hit
Slepyshev is only 29 give him a call see what he’s up too. Could you imagine possibly a 2nd line of Slepyshev 6’2” 220 pounds Kostin 6’3 217 pounds with Leon. These 2 muckers that have skill and a shot would open up so much ice for Leon to hit the D-man coming in late. Bouchard 20 Goals Ekholm 15 Goals Nurse 15 Goals Slepy 21 Goals Kostin 20 Goals. If we’re going to win a Cup we need more scoring from the back-end.
Well he played in the KHL this past season, were his boxcars looked remarkably similar to Yamamoto’s.
Slepy KHL 50 10-17-27
Yamo NHL 58 10-15-25
And Holland did inquire with him a couple of years back about returning to the NHL (Slepyshev declined, obviously).
I feel like you’ve been presented with all this information before.
I don’t know the exact amount but on average the N.H.L scores at least 1.3 more Goals per game than the K.H.L. I would go all in that Slepy would score 20 Goals playing with Leon. I don’t know anything about his personal life but he’s definitely a everyday N.H.L player that’s chosen the K.H.L over the N.H.L.
Not sure how many goals he’d score but I agree that he is (or was) an NHL player who’s chosen to play at home over the NHL.
I was thinking similar about Fast. I also wonder whether a good chunk of his strong on ice numbers are just that he plays on Carolina.
Fast’s actual GF% and GF% rel:
15-16 53.6 -2.19
16-17 51.6 -0.88
17-18 44.3 -2.85
18-19 46.9 +1.04
19-20 58.4 +9.17
20-21 42.1 -18.07
21-22 62.4 +6.13
22-23 53.2 -2.68
(1st 5 years NYR, last 3 CAR)
Yamamoto’s actual GF% and GF% rel:
19-20 68.2 +23.2 (folks like to throw this season out because 27GP)
20-21 57.1 +9.9
21-22 48.9 -3.6
22-23 57.1 +4.1
And in terms of helping outscore. In the last 4 seasons:
Draisaitl with Yamamoto —- 106GF-66GA 61.6%GF
Draisaitl without Yamamoto 159GF-156GA 50.5%GF
I wonder if there may be a situation in which we can hide someone on LTIR and keep Yamo till at the traded deadline then off load him. I’m thinking he will have a better season since its contract year.
The Oilers are looking to be under the upper cap limit this season, no in cap efficiency limiting LTIR, accruing cap space and managing the cap for the benefit on a daily basis – “hiding a player on LTIR” would kill that.
Of course, is a player actually got hurt, for term, which is not an unlikely scenario, that person could be placed on LTIR>
If Holloway is a bit shy in offence but helps elsewhere that is actually better. The core is locked in. If Holloway does too well he’ll be gone for cap reasons also. I’d be happy with a sound defensively smart player that forechecks hard and keeps the bad guys pinned back. A guy that helps the Duo defensively and can be helpful to them without breaking the bank
Or be a high end replacement for Foegele in a bit and make a skankin’ third line. Quality depth
After the long run of futility, it’s nice to be in a spot where the right play is patience and improving team (defensive) play, rather than wishing on a draft or whale hunting.
Goil!
You may be totally correct about them keeping the same seven defenders. Although if they are able to locate a stronger partner for Nurse at a reasonable price and keep Ceci in a lesser role, it would mean they will have a solid eight defenders to choose from. As long as they can be cap compliant. They still need to sign Bouchard.
That would mean they would have to move on from Yamamoto, Janmark & Bjugstad, sign Derek Ryan, Ryan MacLeod & Klim Kostin and go with their supposedly NHL ready trio of Condors (Holloway, Philp & Lavoie)
But you know Holland will sign a couple nice UFA’s and all will be well. LOL.
I tend to agree that I would leave our D alone…..we obtained Ekholm and that has rounded out our top 4 . We can debate about Ceci – but let’s wait to see what a healthy Ceci looks like.
Kailer Yamamoto is taking -nearly- the full heat here for the top 6 forwards.
But, Kailer had some famous company in getting buried at even strength. And not just against Las Vegas.
We need a legit top 6 winger with size. Full stop.
It might be Kostin. But Kostin has warts.
Imagine if we had…..and I am spitballing here.
22 year old Matt Boldy?
31 goals and 63 points – 6 ‘2 -201 pounds
Make a case for me that Leon with Boldy on line 2 does not light it up last playoff.
For the curious, Matt Boldy was the #12 overall pick in the 2019 draft.
Interesting
I should add-
It could also be Holloway to add to top 6 – as LT points out- Dylan’s offence does not scream out right now- but it could get there with his speed and size.
The subject of today’s post also had speed and size…just saying.
Oilers gave up way too many scoring chances in the playoffs. Is it the fault of the D and or the F? They need a top 4 defensive D-man, this will take giving up something we don’t want to. A 2-way forward would help like a Sam Bennett type. They probably need a goalie, I got heck for saying I didn’t have confidence in the playoffs with Skinner. Maybe he’s get better next year.
I understand that many folks don’t think the fancy stats numbers have any value, but by those the Oilers have give up fewer scoring chances this playoffs than either conference finalist.
Shots against per 60 min (from Natural stat trick)
EDM 30.5
VEG 31.2
FLA 33.3
Scoring chances against per 60 min
EDM 28.6
VEG 29.8
FLA 30.7
High danger scoring chances against per 60 min
VEG 11.8
EDM 12.2
FLA 14.3
Anyway, FWIW I guess.
As JP noted, the OIlers’ issue wasn’t giving up too many scoring chances — they performed reasonably well defensively.
They needed to score more on the chances they created — RNH and Kane’s injuries loomed large throughout the playoffs — and for their goaltenders to stop more of the chances that they did allow.
Again, I think Oiler fans — well, any hockey fan that relies on the Canadian broadcasters really — are underserved by the available commentary.
The other team scores = need to be better defensively
Scoring chance doesn’t go in = lack of confidence
It’s not too much to ask that our commentators are able to identify the defensive and forechecking tactics employed within a game — especially within the context of a playoff series. Or for them to identify when a team is playing well, even if the results don’t align with who is carrying the play.
Instead, we’re treated to the same narrative where every challenge is overcome by skating in a straight line, hitting the other guy even if it takes you out of the play, and firing the puck at the net and hoping for the best.
A teams defensive tactics don’t matter, shifts in forecheck don’t matter, officiating doesn’t matter — it’s who believes in themselves and has a shooter’s mentality.
Anyway, the Oilers are a very strong team going into next season — and while Ceci on the third pairing with an upgrade beside Nurse would be optimal it reasonable to foresee continued and greater success to be achievable with some tinkering around the edges of the roster.
You may be interested in the Justin Bourne analysis I just posted above.
To my eye Oilers and Kraken were the worst teams at giving up high end shots.
Agree fully with your approach LT, except I think it’s still too early to move Holloway. If there is any need to move players beyond Yamo, do it at the deadline when you have a better read on the young guys, Ceci and where they are at.
I think you nailed it here LT… some will be happy, others upset but with extremely limited cap space, not sure what Holland can turn magic beans into as he already found Kostin. I don’t think you can go to that well again.
I really hope Desharnais’ experiences get him to the gym and often this off-season. I liked what I saw pre-playoffs and needs to get back to those good habits. He will be a major factor next season for better or worse.
Yeah hopefully Desharnis works hard again this summer and builds on his strong (overall) debut.
IMO his playoff struggles were under a microscope and greatly exaggerated. He had issues for 4 games (last 3 against LA and 1st against Vegas) where he was on the ice for 2GF and 6GA at 5v5.
Then the last 5 games against Vegas he recovered to 2GF – 0 GA at 5v5 (56 minutes, 52%SF, 55%xGF). He was also on for 1GF and 1GA on the the PK (13 minutes).
Hopefully it really was just a 4 game blip, because he was really strong in the regular season, as well as at the beginning/end of the short playoff run.
You had me at “This is Magnus Paajarvi”. Love the old-style introduction. Terrific post.
Can we look back a few years on how Tampa got over the play-off disappoints?
Third line focus
Goodrow traded a 1st + Greco
Coleman traded a 1st + Nolan Foote
Hagel ++ picks trade a2 1st and Katchouk + Raddysh
Paul trade 2x 4th pick and Joesph
Jeannot trade Cal Foote, 1,2,3,4,5 pick
Fourth Line
added Maroon and Perry
I personally think they have paid too much to get 3rd liners, but they have won cups.
Are there lessons to learn from this approach.
All in…all the time.
Same as Vegas.
I should add…Zito in Florida seems to have adopted the same approach.
The last time Tampa won the Cup was 2021.
They acquired Paul and Hagel in 2022, and Jeannot in 2023. None of those 3 won a Cup in Tampa.
Goodrow scored a grand total of 3 goals in 43 playoff games with Tampa. I’m not sure there’s any reasonable argument that the trade cost was worthwhile.
Coleman played well in the 2 Cup runs and certainly contributed.
So that’s 1 of 5. The evidence does not suggest that overpaying for 3rd liners leads to winning Cups.
This is the one thing from your writeup I don’t understand.
Edmonton ‘can’t’ run $3.1M Yamamoto on a depth line, but it’s apparently fine to run $2.75M Foegele on a depth line?
If you believe Foegele is a clearly better player than Yamamoto then fine, you move Yamamoto. I have no issue there.
But if you’re choosing one and keeping the other, whichever guy remains is going to play a very similar role for a very similar cap hit.
Can a downvoter explain what the difference is?
If you think Foegele >> Yamamoto then things would make sense (even if I don’t agree).
Foegele is a middle six winger going forward, in my opinion. Yamo makes sense if he can get into top six, has Rudy Rudinger level try but inconsistent results in the top 6. Yamo has physical challenges surviving a more physical environment prevalent in the middle to bottom six that are much less of a concern for Foegele.
Chances are they will find a replacement for Yamamoto internally. There’re plenty of choices, Foegele, Kostin, Holloway, Lavoie, maybe even Philp. Heck I would think Derek Ryan would also be a good possibility. The main stumbling point is his contract.
I didn’t downvote, but what you’re saying is clear and sensible.
Foegele was the better player this season and makes less money. If I’m keeping one it’s Foegele, although both are gone by next summer.
It’s worth noting that neither have been good in the postseason, so if both get moved out this summer I wouldn’t get upset.
Foegele has had better results playing with less talented line-mates and injury is less of a concern.
I’m a Yamamoto fan — you don’t need to paste guys into the boards in order to be a successful forechecker — and if he was making just a little less money it may have been justified to keep him around.
But the Oilers can put the $3M to better use to fill their need in the top six.
Thanks for the replies.
I don’t think this is really true though, at least not if you take a couple of seasons into account rather than just this most recent one (which was Foegele’s high point and Yamamoto’s low point).
Overall boxcars last 2 regular seasons
Yamamoto 139 30-36-66 +11 64 (1.50 P/50 5v5)
Foegele — 149 25-29-54 -2 52 (1.70 P/50 5v5)
Overall boxcars playoffs
Yamamoto 26 3-8-11 -13 28 (1.56 P/50 5v5)
Foegele — 25 2-2-4 -7 18 (0.96 P/50 5v5)
Regular season 5v5 GF%
Yamamoto 94-87 (52%)
Foegele — 72-72 (50%)
Playoff 5v5 GF%
Yamamoto 13-23 (36%)
Foegele — 6-12 (33%)
So Yamamoto’s overall results are better, with the exception of 5v5 P/60.
He did play more with better linemates, but if you break down the results there’s really not much to choose with or without those better linemates:
Regular season at 5v5
Yamamoto with McDavid and/or Draisaitl — 76-64 (54%) (50% xGF)
Yamamoto without McDavid and/or Draisaitl 18-23 (44%) (53% xGF)
Foegele with McDavid and/or Draisaitl — 22-15 (59%) (59% xGF)
Foegele without McDavid and/or Draisaitl 50-57 (47%) (52% xGF)
Playoffs at 5v5
Yamamoto with McDavid and/or Draisaitl — 9-17 (35%) (59% xGF)
Yamamoto without McDavid and/or Draisaitl 4-6 (40%) (45% xGF)
Foegele with McDavid and/or Draisaitl — 0-1 (0%) (53% xGF)
Foegele without McDavid and/or Draisaitl 6-11 (35%) (58% xGF)
They’ve performed very similarly without McDavid/Draisaitl. Foegele’s results with McDavid/Draisaitl are a little better in a much smaller sample.
Anyway, I’m not at all against moving on from Yamamoto, I’m just not convinced Foegele is any better.
And to my original point, I don’t see how the team ‘can’t’ keep Yamamoto at his $3.1M, while they can and likely will keep Foegele at his $2.75M.
Both players are being paid like #7 forwards (Yamamoto was the #198 and Foegele the #212 forward cap hit this past season). Both are a bit underpaid (and underwhelming) as 2RW, both are a bit overpaid as 3rd liners.
Anyway, we’ll see what happens.
Also, regarding injury. You are right that there is more injury ‘concern’ from everyone about Yamamoto, but he hasn’t actually been injured much more than Foegele. Yamamoto has missed 29 games over the last 3 seasons, Foegele has missed 18.
People are projecting many more missed games from Yamamoto, but he only missed 5 games over the two seasons before this one, and he didn’t miss any games this year once he returned after the all-star break (last 39 games including playoffs).
Warren had a much better PO. He can be effective. Signs he is coming around.
Great write up LT.
Your blog post is my favourite, only one of the very few worth the read. The reffing has been astonishing, haha… I would see it’s been awful. Awfully inconsistent and egregious at times. So much so, it almost appears the NHL is trying to sabotage itself and ensure that new and committed fans are left confused and bewildered.
I agree that the Oilers don’t need to tinker much, they just need more internal drive, better goaltending and clean up the defensive gaffes a little better. This roster is good enough, they just have to believe in themselves.
P.S. Seeing the Tkachuk heroics makes me a little sick to my stomach. It’s either Tkachuk or Eichel hoisting Stanley before Connor and Leon. Maybe that will provide a little more motivation for them next year.
Two things are clear to me this postseason.
The NHL needs to review all penalties. Enough is enough with the inconsistent reffing. It might not solve everything but it would make it better.
The playoff teams should be seeded 1-8, be done with the divisional alignments. Too many good teams are forced to play each other early allowing lesser teams to get through. I’m not slagging Florida – they beat the best and deserve to be in the final. But in the West the matchups were wonky. All the talk of division play and they cross over both wildcards to their opposite conferences. I believe in a 1-8 scenario the oilers would have played the 7th place team – Seattle – in the first round. Might have been Minnesota. But the Kings were a good team and deserved a better matchup to be honest.
Not sure why you’ve got the downvote.
Agree on the playoff seeding.
I’m not sure what penalty reviews would do though. The league had all the time in the world to review the Nurse/Pietrangelo incidents and still completely failed to reach a fair and reasonable outcome.
What difference does the nhl reviewing anything make? The NHL thinks Micheal Bunting committed the worst infraction. Hard to believe there isn’t an agenda.
Not sure why you think the playoff seeding in the WC is a problem.
Vegas won the Pacific and Dallas finished 1 point behind Colorado in the Central.
Colorado fell short mostly because Landeskog didn’t return for the playoffs and Nichushkin went AWOL.
Seems to me the best two teams ended up in the conference final.
The oilers are the obvious second best team in the West. It’s fine, they lost to the best team in the West and they were the only team that could push the Knights. I’m sure you’ll disagree.
You are saying the best team from the Central and the best team from the Pacific are in the Western Final – you are correct.
However I’d rather see the two best teams in the west meet in the Western Final, regardless of the conference they played in. I think the Pacific teams got tougher matchups than the ones in the Central this year. If they seeded 1-8 and reseeded after each round, you’d get more true best vs worst matchups. I believe right now we’d be watching Vegas v Edmonton in the West final right now instead of watching Vegas stomp a inferior Dallas team.
There are good matchups in every round in this system – I will agree with that take. But I don’t think it rewards the best teams by giving them the most favourable matchup.
Dallas finished one point behind the Oilers in the regular season and had a better goal differential so it’s pretty difficult to argue the Oilers are significantly better.
Dallas also gave up 42 fewer goals in the regular season and playoff success very often depends on the ability to lock things down.
That Vegas is poised to sweep them is likely a function of how well built the Knights roster is from top to bottom…they really don’t have a weakness that I can see other than a question in goal.
Dallas also has a very solid roster but their D, while better than many teams, just can’t compete with the Knights which IMO is the best in the NHL.
Brackets are better for betting.
Does anything you see in the playoffs suggest that somehow betting may be important to the NHL.
If seeing Tkachuk contend for the Conn Smyth makes you a little queasy, I imagine half of Calgary will experience projectile vomiting by the end. Add in Sam Bennet etc and it must really be hard for them poor Flames fan. I cry a little tear.
I doubt the players really care whether Tkachuk or Eichel win. They are likely motivated more by what happened this year than any media hype or perceived rivalry with either of these players.
Hi Allan: you made good points and the Oilers did have a very successful regular season and had a 1st round win against a tough opponent. Looking at past stanley cup winners since 2006 these winners all had a GAA of less than 3 during the regular season. Do we the coaches to deploy a “more” defensive style of play and players to buy into that? do we need an upgrade in goaltending? Need Nurse to be consistent as a defensive defenseman re game to game. Can we trust that Bouchard will become more of a defensive defenseman? Do we have enough forwards who are grinders and consistently win the board battles when the playoffs come? I don’t think we need an overhaul however I question if the Oilers currently have the team to reduce GAA to less than 3. I will continue to cheer for them as I have since 1972 when they entered the WHA. thank you
No argument the Oilers need to continue to improve defensively.
They were basically league average in the regular season (3.12/game), and gave up 3.5 in the playoffs.
It is worth remembering though that NHL scoring is currently at its highest since the mid-90s.
League average in 2017 (for instance) was 2.77 goals/game vs 3.18/game in 2023. Teams have added almost half a goal for/against per game in 6 years.
Point being that ‘no Cup winners since’ comparisons like this aren’t really fair because scoring is up so much.
thank you for the update
Gotta look at the whole year as far as acquisition opportunities and cost. FA can get expensive and risky when there are great needs and poor availability of solutions. Keep the powder dry. Some value pieces may be available in later days of FA, that is the play for us, I think. Second opportunity is college/undrafted FA such as Euros. May find useful pieces here as well at value, but expect singles and seeing eye doubles at best, not home runs here. Third is general in season trades – especially when you have a surplus and someone develops an urgent need such as major injury issue. Prices can be better, but cannot predict areas of opportunity before they happen. Tough to rely on as a source. Finally we have Trade deadline. This is the main play in our situation. The participants become known well in advance, the playing field comes into focus in advance as the season unfolds.
I hold are cards on the main, looking to tweak at trade deadline.Only off season moves will be if necessitated by what it takes to manage the Bouchard dilemma.
I would note that vast improvement in goals against during the regular season as it went on.
Post trade deadline: GA was 54 in 20 games – WELL below 3 GA/G and near top of the league (team also scored over 80 goals in that time).
Post January 15 – 108 goals against in 37 games for 2.91 GA/G.
Playoffs weren’t great, obviously.
Run it back! Agree.
Although the playoff run was a tad disappointing, I actually feel better about the team with Ekholm in the fold. Last season there were a few major questions (JP/Yamo as top 6 solutions, who plays in the top 4, who plays goalie, etc.) — by and large, those issues are settled.
I don’t think it would be catastrophic to bring Yamo back. Perhaps he thrives in a third line role. I wouldn’t put him in the top 6 as an automatic because I think you need another guy on that line who can do zone entries.
I suspect Holloway will be a big improvement on that, and that will make the attack more balanced. Even if Holloway is only able to match Yamo’s production, from a cap hit perspective and for diversifying the attack, it’s a big win.
I was very wrong about Ekholm and couldn’t be happier about it. A very astute signing that helps now and long into the future. No need to touch that part of the roster unless something unusually good comes up. I don’t see that right now. Kulak is the best value contract aside from Drai, on the team.
The forward corps is tricky. I don’t like how shy the numbers are but injuries are a bugger. Yes Yamo’s numbers are unimpressive. So are Evander Kane’s due to injury.
The thing with Yamamoto is that he can keep up with those skilled players. He does get into spots where 5-Bell Chances congregate. Scoring is hard and he’s not pushing the needle points wise, agreed. But other Oiler forwards have trouble generating next to anything when up with the big guns AND get runover defensively. Its not an easy role to fill.
I noted earlier in the year that if you look at their age and development curves Hyman and Yamo are similar. I’m not sure Hyman got the same push with skill but there was a noticeable pop when Hyman figured out his man game. Yamo needs to learn how to stay healthy. The league may in fact be too big for him but I’m not there yet.
When I put these two together I’m hesitant to drop Yamo right now unless there is a clear and obvious upgrade. Kostin and Holloway aren’t obvious right now. They may emerge but they have not pushed into that role.
In regards to contracts one years for everyone make a lot of sense given debt repayment timelines. Players and Holland are probably mulling that. I think McLeod gets a longer deal (3 years) with a cash bump next season vs this coming season. He may in fact want to go less I’m not sure. Need more time to think about Bouch but I would squeeze him now with promises of riches in the near future.
I’d be OK with bringing Yamamoto back as well, as you said, in a bottom six role. I think he can be a good bottom six player and his overall game, including ability to finish, should rebound with more sustained health (hopefully) and in a contract year – he’s proven in his career to be a “better finisher than he has been over the last 14 months.
At the same time, $3.1MM is very high for that projected role and, of course, management absolutely needs to move out current cap commitments just to bring back Bouchard and McLeod.
Its hard to see Yamamoto not being that cap victim.
Holland made a comment about not being interested in “green bananas”. Holloway & Broberg seem to be pretty clear long-term solid NHLers, which has real value to say, Anaheim or Montreal, but not so much Edmonton next year. Holloway is one of my favorite young Oilers in a while, so I worry he’s going to be sent away to ripen somewhere else.
I don’t think he’s trading Hollywood. The Oilers will need some talent on value contracts next season.
I think that comment may be taken a bit out of context by some (many) – he was mainly speaking towards his future and looking at his position in management of the Oilers going forward as opposed to particular Oiler players.
Holland also has expressed how important it is to have young players that are cheap and that provide excess value vis-a-vis their cap hits – Broberg and Holloway are two high candidates for those roles.