The problem is you can’t keep them all. We are nearing the NHL buyout window (about two weeks now) and there’s a chance Kailer Yamamoto will be bought out during the period leading up to free agency. If you’re a fan of any team, in any sport, sooner or later a personal favourite will get sent away. The Kailer Yamamoto story has many previous incarnations, although “his cap hit means he has to go” isn’t the same as “Marc Pouliot doesn’t see himself as a third-line center.” Did you ever wonder about the first such situation in Oilers history? I know of an early one, perhaps it was the first.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- New DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could have value in a trade this summer
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers 2022-23 predictions revisited
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: How Oilers GM Ken Holland built the team and the cost to get this far
- DNB: Oilers digest season that was, know next year is ‘Stanley Cup or it’s a failure’
- Lowetide: Are Oilers prospects’ minor league stats an indication of future NHL success?
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
TOM ROULSTON
Tom Roulston was acquired in the summer of 1979, part of the Joe Micheletti for Risto Siltanen trade. The general managers of record would have been Larry Gordon (Edmonton) and Emile Francis (Blues), but in my mind it was Glen Sather pulling the strings in Edmonton all down the line.
Roulston had a big shot and could score goals. He scored 56 for the Winnipeg Monarchs (WCHL, the WHL before the renaming) and once he turned pro 27 (Port Huron Flags), 26 (Dallas Blackhawks) 29 (Houston Apollos) and 63 (Wichita Wind) before climbing to the NHL.
He scored 11 in 35 NHL games for the Oilers in 1981-82, that was a year Slats was trying to find something that rhymed at center. All of Wayne Gretzky, Matti Hagman, Laurie Boschman, Stan Weir, Roulston, Marc Habscheid, Garry Unger, Lance Nethery and Todd Strueby would have played in the middle that year, and I remember Pat Hughes taking a few turns in the middle during those years.
Center was a moving target for years in Edmonton.
Roulston was one of two solutions, but not in a way that allowed him to stay. In December of that year, Sather made the call on him, dealing Roulston to the Pittsburgh Penguins (GM: Eddie Johnston) for rugged center Kevin McClelland. At the time, Cam Cole called it a “straight swap of offense for aggression” and noted that physical element was the reason for the Boschman acquisition (but it didn’t take). Sather would move Mark Messier to the middle during that season, and that was one of the pivotal (sorry) moves in team history. Edmonton ran 99, 11, Ken Linesman and McClelland up the middle for the Stanley run, all four men scoring huge goals during the finals that season.
It was Edmonton’s first Stanley. McClelland might have scored the most important goal in team history, the winner in a 1-0 statement game against the four-time SC champion New York Islanders in Game 1 of the final.
KAILER YAMAMOTO
The Yamamoto buyout is damned inviting. The kind of players that might be available in trade (Emil Bemstrom, Filip Zadina, Denis Gurianov) are similar to him and come with significant cap. Players who had strong seasons, or seasons strong enough to project into a long-term role, but were unable to sustain. Yamamoto’s cap hit is higher, making him more difficult to move.
I don’t think there’s a Kevin McClelland out there, either. The Oilers are better off developing young players like Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie and Xavier Bourgault. Sign a free agent if you need some oomph on the fourth line.
On a related note, I’m a little concerned the wrong message may be sounding in NHL team offices throughout the land. The line of William Carrier-Nicolas Roy-Keegan Kolesar is getting plenty of attention currently and my goodness the trio is making noise. May I ask about the five-on-five results?
- Reg season: 286 mins, 14-11 goals (56 pct), 50.8 expected goal pct
- Playoffs: 42 mins, 3-1 goals (75 pct), 63 expected goal pct
I think people talk about the physicality and find themselves casting about for replacements. “Let’s get Max Jones!” or whatever. The VGK fourth line was good all year, and have spiked in the postseason. They also played together a helluva lot. Edmonton’s top fourth line in minutes was Kostin-Shore-Ryan. The trio played 125 minutes together, 4-2 goals with a 45 percent expected goal share. Edmonton should look to upgrade the roster, searching for the next Keegan Kolesar is fine if he can play. A reminder, in case you forgot, of the goal share by line (at five-on-five) during 2022-23. I’m using centers as proxy.
- Connor McDavid 43-38, 53 pct
- Leon Draisaitl 42-46, 48 pct
- 97 and 29 32-24, 57 pct
- Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 24-21 53 pct
- Ryan McLeod 25-20, 56 pct
- Nick Bjugstad 9-5, 54 pct
- The rest 16-14, 53 pct
- Total: 191-168 53 pct
I’m no expert, but I believe the smart person looks at all of the numbers below 53 percent and wonders how to make them better. No? If someone tells you the Oilers need tougher, meaner forwards this season, the proper response is “that’s fine, as long as they are better players than the group last year.” The 2022-23 Oilers were a damn good team. Chasing Coke machines isn’t going to help one damn thing. Get good players, keep good players.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
A busy show on TSN 1260, we’ll have Steve Lansky, Tyler Yaremchuk and more. NHL and NBA finals, Memorial Cup, and we’ll talk about possible changes in hockey media over the summer. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter.
Nurse for Provorov?
I mean, does it work, would Philly take that contract?
Would Nurse go to Philly?
Would McDavid and Drai and the rest of the core be encouraged and happy by this move?
Would the Oilers be able to add enough with the $2.5MM of cap hit saved over the next couple of seasons to bridge the massive gap and how much worse they get with that one on one swap?
Can the Oilers make the playoffs by the trade-deadline rolling 4 lines that integrate Broberg, Lavoie and/or Holloway in a significant way?
I believe so.
The only real issue I have is moving out Yamo and, possibly, Foegle (who plays some right wing) and replacing with Holloway and Lavoie leaves a lack of right wingers in the top 6.
Hyman moves over but none of Nuge, Kane nor Holloway have played any RW in this league (that I know of). Its aggressive to think Lavoie will be 2RW and lets not forget that he played exclusively LW in the AHL this past season.
I think so too. I ask because I get the impression from some of what Coach Woodcroft has said after the season ended that he wasn’t happy with how the team was structured early. So I see him using these (and maybe other) young guys in meaningful roles right out of the gate. It’s a necessity I guess. But it’s what I’m hoping for too.
Only one of them is a rookie. Two draft plus five, one draft plus 4.
Are we waiting for them to be eligible for OAS?
Just looking at some stuff one NST and, while we know that Leon lost the goal share at 5 on 5 when not with McDavid, its interesting to note that, at least per the numbers, Yamo on with him was a massive help – he got crushed even more without Yamo.
Yeah that’s kind of been a thing.
I posted a day or two ago:
Draisait’s goal share with Yamamoto over the past 4 seasons has been 62%
Draisait’s goal share with McDavid over the same span has been 56%
Crazy.
Ya, I’ve known its been a thing over the years but didn’t think/realize that it continued this year – my eye test remembers Yamo being much less “effective” defensively this year – maybe I made up that memory though…..
It’s been a thing. Puljujarvi with 97 too, until last season when it caved.
Damn I miss the little guy already.
LoL
Yamamoto finished 339th in scoring playing with one of the best passers in the game. Don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out of Edmonton!
I have mentioned this several times, probably to the point of annoyance. But every time the Oilers hit a skid, a losing streak, the coach overplays his centers to try and squeeze out some wins. This has been unsuccessful. Each time the way out was to play the entire line up, get everybody contributing, and play there way back into wins as a team.
After Tippett, When Woodcroft was brought in it was Derrick Ryan who spoke up about this. He (and others) could not help, when sitting on the bench all game watching Connor and Leon play. And Leon has often said he feels it “his” responsibility to score. Woodcroft reset everyone to positions, rolled the lines.
In the past playoffs, I felt this trend was reemerging. Particularly when top players, but injured players, were not producing. They rode those top 6 and goalie too hard. Certainly this is with benefit of hindsight, and of course the (ridiculous) penalties played a major part in player deployment.
To me, the team learned they must play better defensively to win. I hope they are also learning that they will need the entire team contributing, so build up those depth lines and those establish roles well before playoffs seems like the right plan.
It would be for any other team. But this team has the two best centers. With the two best centers I can see how the plan has to change a bit, any coach would try to maximize this advantage. Woodcroft double shifted them.
Bruce Cassidy kept Eichel and his high energy line together, played strategically, basically winning the series with them as the rest held their own.
Im not pointing at anyone, it is just food for thought.
You saw it right and I do believe spreading things out is the goal. But heading into the playoffs we had:
Foegele – broken finger
Kane – broken finger and ribs
Hyman – undisclosed
Janmark – shot block game 1 1st round
McLeod – out for a month until two games left in the regular season.
We could add into this a malady perhaps for Nuge.
Nick B, Klim, Yamo and Ryan are presumed healthy heading in with McLeon. One of those guys has experience in a top six role, two cannot play that role (Nick and Derek) and two are unknown for that role. The injureds are drags on everyone’s performance.
When this is what you have to craft 3.5 lines its tough to spread out. Might get you slaughtered. Load up and hope for everyone else to saw off. Worked against LA. Almost but not quite worked against Vegas.
Once these things are balanced we’ll finally get to see Peak McDavid and Draisaitl.
I think Foegele was a wist issue (since like February apparently) and Kostin did end up with a broken foot early in the Vegas series.
Of course, all teams deal with injuries but, while most of the Oilers were able to play – half the forwards were reduced effectiveness (in particular Hyman, Kane, Kostin, Janamark.) – not sure if Nuge was “reduced effectinvess’ or he just slumped
This is mostly a myth.
In the 2023 playoffs the Oilers had 10 forwards who played 10+ minutes per game at 5v5 (and only D. Ryan missed 1 of 12 games from that group).
During the 22-23 regular season 11 forwards played 10+ minutes at 5v5, but they included Bjugstad and Puljujarvi who didn’t overlap, so really it was only 10. Also those 10 forwards missed lots of games (Kane 41, McLeod 25, Yamamoto 24, Janmark 16, Foegele 15) so there were actually only 8-9 forwards most games who were playing 10+ minutes.
In the 2nd half of 2022 after Woodcroft arrived, 10 forwards played 10+ minutes a game at 5v5. A couple of those guys missed chunks of time (Puljujarvi 15 of 38 and Nuge 12 of 38 games), so many nights in Woodcroft’s 1st season also didn’t feature even 10 forwards playing 10 minutes a night.
I don’t think Woodcroft’s general deployment of the roster has changed much at all.
For example, in playoffs, I seen McDavid playing just under 20 minutes a night while Ryan played 8 minutes 5×5. Plus McDavid was used on PP and a small amount of time on PK.
The point of overplaying top forwards to detriment of bottom forwards is not a myth, its real. And the fact that the way out of each and every losing streak has been to get the entire roster contributing. Not a single time could Connor/Leon play their way out of losing streak by themselves.
Not this time JP!
That TOI distribution happened on some occasions, but in 2022 after Woodcroft took over:
McDavid played 16:02/game at 5v5
Ryan played 10:15
This playoff season:
McDavid played 16:49
Ryan played 10:13
You may be correct that Woodcroft is overplaying the top guys, but his player deployment has not changed much at all. Woodcroft did not ‘roll the lines’ when he first took over (maybe I should only have quoted that part).
I wonder why Ryan would specifically quote that the difference between Tippett and Woodcroft was the fact that he was more engaged and allowed to contribute due to more ice time once Woodcroft took over.
For context, he was asked what had changed since Woodcroft took over and why did he feel the team was playing much better.
My recollection was that McLeod got a spike in minutes with Woodcroft.
I remember. Ryan did get more minutes after Woodcroft came in vs. under Tippett (8:47 to 10:15 at 5v5 and an extra minute/game overall).
He and McLeod were among those who benefited (Foegele played a couple of minutes less under Woodcroft).
Woodcroft did play some forwards more, as well as being more fluid with the forwards in the 11/7 alignment.
He never did roll 4 lines though. And I don’t think in general Woodcroft’s usage of his lineup changed this season vs. last.
I cannot understand why Yamamoto is not tradeable vs a buyout. Surely teams like Arizona and Chicago who are rebuilding and have cap space should be interested.
You would think the teams like Arizona, Chicago, Anaheim are looking to put a product on the ice that fans will at least cheer for even though they will not make the playoffs while make the cap floor. Fans will look for little story lines to hold on too. Yamo is a guy who people to cheer for .Yamo might be worth taking a chance on with no risk.
It’s too bad he didn’t have a bit stronger frame and more of that sturdy style horsepower of Marty St. Louis. Even though he was short he had power and 180 pounds. Yamos stat line says he’s 153 he said he said was 160 after summer and in training camp but also said he can’t really even keep that on during the season .. big difference between 153 lbs and 180 lbs .. at 5 foot 7 .
Massive difference. Yama is American and I think it matters more to US teams. Marketing is key, to mostly less interested patriotic fans
The biggest drop for Yams is that he was a demon on the forecheck when that line was on fire. He was giving d fits. He seemed to lose the magic or players adjusted.
Ha. I was about to agree with you and suggest injury as a possible cause.
Then I looked and Yamamoto’s takeaways/60 were the highest of his career this season. Wasn’t expecting that. They did go to shit in the playoffs though, so recency bias for all of us? (also effective forecheck isn’t only takeaways, though I guess it’s a decent proxy)
By year at 5v5 (including penalties drawn as well):
19-20 2.58 1.00 (TK/60, penalties drawn/60)
20-21 2.17 1.04
21-22 1.38 0.97
22-23 2.99 0.95
And playoffs
21-22 3.20 0.96
22-23 0.38 0.38
Remarkably consistent up until “Playoff 2023”. Weird.
BTW he was 15th of 382 forwards (>500 min) in takeaways/60 this past regular season.
Plenty of teams are squeezed at cap with bigger fish needing to be fried first. Complimentary wingers abound that people would like to offload.
No need to take them without some wheel grease.
Buyout window is small and 1st. It’s an easy out given his age and even out of it they still likely be hoping to offload another guy for cheaper option for roster balancing once rfa’s are paid
The Oilers will likely have a second buyout window – Of course, I hope they agree to contracts before the deadline to file but its likely that either Kostin or McLeod (or both) file for arb, opening a second buyout window at some point this summer to. Philp is also eligible but I wouldn’t think he files.
They could likely kick this can down the road while they try and find a trade.
According to both Puckpedia and Capfriendly, the second buyout window can only be used for players’ contracts that have a cap hit in excess of $4 million for 2023. Yamamoto’s contract does not reach this limit, so if this rule is correct, it can only be bought out in the first window.
Yes, I think I knew that at one point but forgot – that you for that and important point.
I don’t think that’s the route Holland will take. He’ll want the walking around money as he enters free agency.
Yamamoto is very popular in the room, he is a hockey kid, and being small, that also can add energy when his teammates see him succeeding.
Thing is, when Yamo first showed up playing with Drai and Nuge, he proved that he could overcome any size issues, and he could produce.
Playing at that level all the time is extremely hard, and he faltered. Then injury. He seemed to lose that edge he had. He started hitting as did Jesse P, just in order to “do something”
Darn shame, I like this player. But I agree hes not going to hold up. A trade is possible, but given the need to free up $ they must get the perfect player back, or maybe another Kostin new start type player.
I believe Holland is going to move him for a pick in this years draft. If you have a few extra dollars available, why wouldn’t a team spend a draft pick and bring in a real player that can certainly add offense in the regular season? One year deal, little risk.
Yamamoto – Best stinky glove face washer.
LT, can you e-mail Mr. Nugent Bowman Philip Broberg’s hockey card. He does not seem to know that Philip Broberg is an Edmonton Oiler defensemen.
I’m sure DNB is aware of Philip Broberg.
He probably just doesn’t think Broberg should be asked to run before he walks.
(ie – thrust into the top 4 on his off side before he’s even played 15 minutes a night as an every day player)
Broberg now has as much or more experience than Bouchard when Bouchard was given that slot with Keith.
Who do you think will be better Broberg are Valimaki? The Flames really screwed the pooch on letting Valimaki go after such a serious injury that takes awhile to recover.
I haven’t watched Valimaki much. Broberg may fail, but one has to provide the space for them to grow and reach their potential.
The salary cap is not large enough to build a contender out of only veterans on market contracts. The Oilers are already paying 5D real money, and essentially all 5 are at the market. Broberg and Desharnais are the only cheap contracts where the players can really outplay their contracts.
Broberg was drafted for this. It is draft plus 5. He has checked all the boxes along the way. No setbacks. It is go time.
Just like the Oiler have to let Yamamoto and probabley Foegele go to give the space for Holloway, Kostin, Lavoie,and Bourgault, so the team can get better.
The only real way to get better is to have young players on value contracts emerge.
Much more experience is debatable, but you’re right they’re at least in range.
That isn’t an argument that Broberg should play top 4 RD to start next season though.
There’s absolutely no good reason to push him into that role immediately.
Start him in a lower leverage lineup spot and he will (hopefully) take the higher leverage spot on merit as the season progresses.
You are not going to get to the required destination at the trade deadline without starting Broberg with Nurse in October.
You are not pushing him.
I think he could be pushed just fine with 2nd pairing minutes with Ekholm. To be clear, Ekholm played second pairing behind Nurse last season and in the playoffs (but for the last game but they were running Bouch 30 minutes that game).
Bouchard and McDavid should be joined and, of course, Nurse has a long history of success with McDavid:
McDavid/Nurse/Bouch
Drai/Ekholm/Broberg
Of course, Ceci is highly likely to play RD ahead of Broberg and Broberg playing a regular shift with Kulak and filling up when injuries hit is legit and fine.
I think Broberg is like Holloway or Lavoie. He’s on the team, there isn’t a prominent role until it’s established. No reason for management to pressure in June, and one assumes Daniel is riffing off what the organization has expressed as the plan.
All this talk of buying out Yams I can’t help but wonder if Holland couldn’t swing a deal with Seattle some how. It would be a feel good situation in Seattle as a home town boy comes back to a familiar place. Fans would love him, so come on Kenny do him a solid. Not sure what he could pry outta Seattle. Maybe a pick or prospect? Or a player on a lesser contract?
Jordan Eberle is already on the team, and a far better player. You can only have one.
Yamamoto is an journeyman 3rd line winger for non-contending teams.
Seattle actually has two.
Jaden Schwartz is their 2RW…5’10” 190 and also a much better player.
Yamamoto has outscored and has a better +/- than Schwartz the last three seasons.
Don’t forget his age curve!
Schwartz is lucky to be in the league lol
What are you going on about?
Schwartz was injured in two of those years.
In the most recent season he scored 21 goals and 40 points.
Yamamoto scored 10 goals and 25 points while mainly playing with the best centres in the league.
I’m not sure why people keep thinking Yamamoto to Seattle would be a homecoming.
Yamamoto is from Spokane which is farther from Seattle than Edmonton is from Calgary.
Seattle is flush on the wings and Yamamoto is NOT from there. I don’t see a fit.
Chicago on the other hand…….
True. But it is a state homecoming which is often how the issue is framed when there is only one NHL city present. Edmonton could be nicknamed the Alberta Oilers if Atlanta never relocated.
Steve Lansky was spitting fire today! Never heard the bit about Hughson being kind of a dick before, but as he was the worst Vancouver homer ever, even at the national level, I’m hardly surprised.
I can’t listen to LT on Friday’s as I can’t support the show when it has Lansky on it that day – not after his public attacks on DeBrusk because he doesn’t like his commentary – he want way too far and has shown no integrity.
I notice that Las Vegas likes to keep their lines fairly consistent. Especially lower down the lineup.
Jay Woodcroft on the other hand likes to play jumble with his lineup. Often to the team’s advantage.
Perhaps, especially for a 4th line, a trio needs to play together significant minutes to find their chemistry, or “identity”. I’d like to see the bottom-6 be a relatively stable unit with an established identity going into next year’s playoffs.
True, several Oilers have mentioned they just want to get some steady line-mates and get a line going
Woodcroft tries to maximize production double shifting centers. It does work, but hey, if your bottom 6 are averaging 55% goal share, just let them play.
I tend to disagree. It might work for some teams and players, but I prefer the bottom line at least to be a rotating cast. Unless those players are head and shoulders better than the others, those players tend to be near replacement level, and benefit more from being fresh and with more motivation (like staying in the lineup for playing well) than a set cast of players. I think back to the 2006 run and think of the 4 or 5 players that MacT would pick and choose to give the game a different look for their small amounts of ice time.
RE a potential Yamamoto buyout. Ala Puljujarvi, I think he’ll be traded instead for pennies on the dollar and I’m hopeful this is the last of these types of deals we see for a while.
Now that The Dutchman has built out the roster depth, this team won’t be pressed to zoom unqualified players with cherry linemates and minutes anymore. More competition throughout the roster should result in more deserving winners of those minutes. JP and Kailer should thank their lucky stars everyday. Connor and Leon got them paid beyond what either were worth on their last contracts.
If the Oilers were a game show, those are some lovely parting gifts. Now, what’s behind Door #3 as the replacement?
They should be thankful. Yama is a great young fellow I wish him best
I am not sure he will remain as a regular in the NHL. LT has pointed out the math liked him and applauded the selection. This fella says physics doesn’t like Yama. He’s a skilled hockey player. There are thousands of those
Marchessault is a small player. He’s fast and is a pure scorer. He’s aggressive in the right way. He’s been bona fide two ways since being in the desert, got himself up to a career +37 now. He’s 1 inch taller and – 30 pounds!!! – heavier than Yama. That weight diff is hard to fathom in players that small by NHL standards
Context is needed. Yama isn’t that fast even if a he has pretty good edges. He has a mediocre shot so he’s a mediocre finisher. I don’t think he’s explosive enough to play with his brain and stick. So he hits and gets hurt
He’s stuck in the margins of no stand out skill for a top 6 NHL player and he’s short and unusually light so bottom 6 is unlikely. Why not get a mediocre normal or big player for that?
Even if he’ll agree to get let go and come back cheap it’s time to move on. Can’t have 2 guys regularly crapping the bed post season in a top 6. The odd good game or goal aside – it takes more consistency than that to win a cup, from everyone
Marchessault had also only played 4 NHL games by Yamamoto’s age.
He spent his age 24/25 season (Yamamoto is still 24) scoring a shade under a point per game for the Syracuse Crunch.
He has indeed developed into a quality NHLer now though.
Hyman was 24 before he scored 40 points and was 25 when he scored 20 goals.
Not that he’s a Yamo comparable given he’s a beast of a man but even Rope Hintz wasn’t more than a 0.5 P/G player until he was 24 and then exploded in to a P/G guy.
I don’t see Yamo’s production exploding but the premise of giving up on 22-23 year olds with talent and pedigree is risky.
To me that reads he wasn’t given the same chance. 1 PPG in the A usually gets a guy up. Of course there’s more room on the Oilers RW chart
Well he was close to a point per game AHL player out of the box. Pretty much at that level for 4 full AHL seasons before finally making the NHL mid-20s.
He played in 4 different organizations in 5 years in finding his way to Vegas, so I guess there were lots of opportunities along the way.
Just to be clear, Marchessault, at the age of 22 to 24, despite scoring a ppg in the AHL, couldn’t crack the Columbus Blue Jackets line up, in 2 seasons, where they missed the playoffs the first season (and were 25th in scoring), and squeaked in as the 8th seed in the second season (improving all the way to 12th scoring) and you claim this team had more winger depth than the Oilers do now?
Breaking into the TBL has always been an issue for AHL players since they have long been using been using trades and free agent signings to add to their win now roster.
As soon as he given a real chance he exploded with a 30 goal season.
If you’d bothered to look you’d see that the 14-15 Lightning (where 24 year old Marchessault played 2 games) featured Brett Connolly (50 12-3-15 before being traded to Boston) before he was good and JT Brown (50 3-6-9) on RW.
Their top 6 was strong (Kucherov, Callahan) but there was no depth down below at that point.
The year he finally broke in (15-16) the RW depth behind Kucherov (66 points) was Ryan Callahan (28 points), JT Brown (22 points) and Erik Condra (11 points) in addition to Marchessault (18 points).
Read this.
https://thehockeywriters.com/tampa-bay-lightning-marchessault-missed-opportunity/
Yes, Columbus, Tampa Bay and Florida all dropped the ball on a player who showed himself as legit at age 25/26.
He did not get the opportunity before then.
I doubt you can back any of your first sentence up with any genuine facts prior to 2017/2018 to support your claim of how all in Tampa was compared to any other team.
Agree, sadly.
I agree with the overall tone of this post- both Yamo and JP were given plenty of opportunity to grab the role available
It’s time to move on and give someone else the opportunity
The Oilers bottom six wasn’t an issue in the regular season nor the playoffs. In fact, it was a massive plus for the team during the regular season – it didn’t match that in the playoffs but it still did its job.
As far as forward lines go, the “issue in the playoffs” was the second tier of scoring dried up – largely due to injuries to Hyman and Kane reducing their offensive effectiveness and Nuge having a tough 5 on 5 playoffs (reason unknown, maybe illness, maybe just, well, a slump).
Now, the Oilers “bottom six” was often a “bottom 5” putting some additional pressure on the top 6 and perhaps they need to commit to finding a full two lines that can outscore as opposed to a bottom 5.
I think the organization may actually commit, or at least talk about committing to relying on the bottom six more than they have. A large part of that is coaching – I have posted quite a bit about my opinion that Woody would shorten the bench way too often and early – taking players out of the game that, well, weren’t overtly struggling.
At the same time, I still opine that Broberg needs to play each and every night and, if they are committing to a four line forward group, well, Vinny may be spending some time watching – in my opinion.
Injuries will happen – there will be ice for both I’m sure.
No doubt that Kailer Yamamoto is indeed an NHL player but, at the same time, has not provided value for his cap hit in recent times – the only reason a buyout is being discussed is due to value to cap hit, not being able to play in the NHL. In that regard, also no doubt that, if he is bought out, he will sign a contract early in the free agency season – probably in the $2MM range in my opinion.
I’m still thinking he is not bought out and not in the first buyout window in June.
Its far from certain that he can’t be traded straight up at $3.1MM but, if he can’t, can he be traded with apx $450K retained and an acquisition cap hit of apx $2.6MM? I would think so but, again, not certain.
Retaining an amount near the 1st year buyout cap hit in a trade would be better than a buyout as it saves the second year dead cap hit.
I would think that trade would be explored and, lets not forget, the Oilers will likely have a 2nd buyout window – as long as one of Philp, McLeod or Kostin file for arbitration – and I think its likely that the latter two do (if a deal isn’t consummated prior to the deadline).
It sure doesn’t sound like you can (and I guess Puljujarvi is already gone from the most recent ‘keep them all’ group). They did manage to do it last season though by running the roster really tight (21 players).
Even another $1.0M on the cap for next season and I think the Oilers might be able get the RFAs signed without trading anyone, but it’s hard to see how they could with an $83.5M cap.
A 21-man roster that’s compliant under an $83.5M cap would require RFA/UFA deals that look like:
Bouchard $3M
McLeod $1.1M
Kostin $1.0M
Ryan $800k
Lavoie $800k
(Philp $800k)
Probably a bridge too far, but that roster would look like:
Nuge-McDavid-Hyman
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto
Holloway-McLeod-Foegele
Lavoie-Ryan-Kostin
/
Nurse-Ceci
Ekholm-Bouchard
Kulak-Broberg
Desharnais
/
Skinner
Campbell
(that’s 21 players and about 100k under the cap)
Anyway, as I said it’s very unlikely that the RFAs are going to sign deals at those numbers. $1M more on the cap and I think it becomes plausible, though I know that’s also unlikely to be the reality.
I feel like it is helpful though to see how close the team is to being able to ‘keep them all’ for one more year. Perhaps something changes that allows it to happen.
Its so tempting to lowball everyone with the understanding that there are seven forward roster spots wide-open for 24/25 and somewhere around $15-18.5 million in cap space, with likely a very low escrow rate. Let everyone scrap it out in contract years to stick around and/or pump up your value. Might be a little too hunger games but tempting.
Bouchard is the trickiest of the bunch. He had a great playoffs but an up and down year. I’m bullish on the kid no doubt but Kenny doesn’t often pay to the hilt for guys coming out of ELCs. Got this feeling Bouchard might come in cheaper than folks expect.
We shouldn’t forget that the following year a large chunk of Drai’s raise will come from the Neal buyout. That expiring $1.916 takes Leon up tp $10.416, so there isn’t “that” much additional money needing to be found to take him into the upper echelon.
Yeah we’ll see what the contracts look like I guess.
I have a tough time seeing them as low as they’d need to be, but I also didn’t expect Bear to sign for 2 x $2M coming off a season as 1RD, or McLeod signing for under $800k last summer.
Love him or “hate him”, I think all would agree that Holland is a man of integrity and honesty in his business dealings (well, as far as we on the outside know).
I would presume that he “promised” to take care of McLeod on his next contract given what he signed for last off-season – I think he will honour any sort of agreement they had.
I could see Bouch coming in lower than we (including me) think – not counting on it but, as noted, Holland does generally grind those coming off their ELCs – I just don’t think that’s a good idea with this player notwithstanding the cap crunch and the “win now mode”.
I don’t think he’ll renege on any agreements, and as I said I’m very skeptical that the deals could come in that low.
We don’t know though. And while it’s unlikely, it is conceivable that the young players could leave a little money on the table in order for a teammate to remain part of the group.
Tough to low-ball McLeod and Kostin as both could get more than the above numbers in arbitration. Tough to low ball Bouchard because he’s just too damn good and too important for the org – relationships matter.
LT, I enjoyed your Athletic write up on Grubbe and ‘save the draft on just three picks’.
I loved Tom Roulston, really hoped he’d make it. Probably a classic case of a player who just didn’t quite get the right opportunity at exactly the right time in his career, and didn’t have the early success along with that opportunity in order to build confidence. On the Oilers he was a skill player forced into becoming a 4th line center.
He scored some fantastic goals, though. I remember in particular one against St Louis (I think): he got a pass on a 2 on 1 but was in too close to the net, so instead of taking the puck on his forehand, he did a spinorama one-time backhand off the far post and in.
Tom did score some skilled Goals batting deep 8-9 in the order. I was bummed out when they traded Tom but it didn’t long for McCelland to become a fan Favourite. Sather was a master every trade in the 80’s turned to Gold. Sather traded again with Pittsburgh a few years later to get another heart and soul player in McSorely.
Well I guess lamenting that you can’t keep them all means you are in a better position than if you lamented that you can’t get rid of them all
Off topic… sometimes it amazes me, the Internet that is. FYI, I’m a retired web programmer so I’m no Luddite, but LT’s simple link to a video from nearly 40 years ago. I remember my friend siting me down in front of Yahoo, most likely 1994’ish, and telling me to ‘search whatever I wanted’. I chose “Led Zeppelin” as my first internet search. I also remember teachers saying ‘calculators’ away for math tests etc. Now absolutely everything, good or bad, is available at your fingertips. Aside from the unhealthy screen time it’s pretty amazing stuff. I can’t imagine what Sather would have been able to piece together with the information available today. Makes me wonder if he had laminated hockey card books in his office back in the day of all the players on every team so he could look at the back of the card for his stats for trade purposes.
Great first web browser cherry pop.
Not that you asked, but you’re the off topic one 😉, so to clarify Luddites don’t hate technology, they resist non-democratic applications of tech, and the tendency for capitalism to force tech on people without consent. You can be a Luddite computer programmer 🥰.
We would never have had Todd Marchant as I believe the story goes that Slats thought he was a different player entirely.
Sather thought he was trading for Marchant’s brother https://oilersnation.com/news/nation-profile-todd-marchant
Thanks! always too lazy to link.
That story is BS.
Todd Marchand was traded to Edmonton during the 1993-94 season. His brother, Terry, a 6’1” NAHL defenseman was drafted by Edmonton in 1994….
Can Edmonton buy-out KY and then re-sign him at a lower cap hit on a brand new contract?
Him remaining in the top 6 all season tells me he has internal advocates. Maybe some who wear skates. Maybe some who want to see him rebound from some tough injuries and help push to make the team better. His demeanor tells me he’s active in the room and the love is reciprocal.
I’m not saying it’s the right move necessarily but wonder if this is possible.
He’s also my wife’s favorite Oiler so would be a good retention for personal domestic reasons.
I believe so. Yamo would become a UFA the moment he is bought out and free to sign anywhere for any dollar.
Well if I’m him and his agent I would be looking around to see what other teams would be willing to sign him for 3 million, realize there are none, accept the market rate for him might be 1.5 (?), and start playing politics internally. Decent deal for Yamo. Still get paid out on current contract and keep your roster spot on a team you love playing for.
He’s also central to my damned book!
Get on that sequel?
need OP to chime in … he will know …
I don’t think you can buyout a player and then sign him at a lower cap hit …just my guess ..
Didn’t Calgary do that with Michael Stone a few years back?
Yes, this can be done. Flames did it with Stone in the recent past.
There was a prohibition on re-signing players that were bought out via the one-time “Compliance Buyouts” and there is also a restriction on trading a player for a year after matching an offer sheet.
Yes, the CBA does allow that – Michael Stone in Calgary was a recent example
There was a 1 year restriction on the compliance buyouts coming out of the strike/lockout, regular buyouts do allow for a buyout and re-sign
Ok nice thank you everyone for chiming in.
With this established, feel free to comment on whether this would be a good thing or not. At what price would you keep Yamamoto as a roster player? Is any cost too dear? Assuming he finds a spot in the bottom six and as a PK specialist, for 1-1.5 can you bring him back? This team has depth and youth wanting to make an impact.
I like Yamo but would not bring him back – if he is bought out I think he signs elsewhere anyway
I think Kenny will be able to find a trade partner if the Oilers retain a little, and the Oilers will be able to recoup a draft pick, even if modest
I’d try out the internal candidates through the first 60 games, and make a play at the deadline if the internal options are found wanting
*edit-and full disclosure, I asked the same question yesterday morning, and the Michael Stone buyout was brought to my attention
Sorry, I responded before seeing this response – didn’t mean to double up.
You can do it but I don’t see Yamamoto agreeing to it. He would know he can’t make big money on his next contract and play for the Oilers. So why not just pick his new team now?
The OIlers HAVE to move on from Yamamoto to get better. Bringing him back would be a collosal mistake.