The Edmonton Oilers lost a tough series to Vegas Golden Knights on May 14. That was three weeks ago. In that time, every theory imaginable has been put forward, including mine. I think the better team won. After two games in the SC finals, Vegas does indeed look like the class of the league this season.
One of the things I’ve learned about teams over many decades is that time gives perspective. I think patience and prudence (the phrase, not the duo) is vital at times like this. Let’s go back and review some of the quotes from the middle of May, and see if there’s a change in perspective.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers must return to the OHL at 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could have value in a trade this summer
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- Lowetide: Will the Oilers draft (and keep) a world class agitator in 2023?
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: 10 Edmonton Oilers free-agent targets for this summer
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Why Oilers winger Klim Kostin could be a key to Oilers summer
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
- Lowetide: Oilers top 20 prospects, winter 2022
KEN HOLLAND QUOTES FROM THE END OF THE YEAR AVAIL
- “The team that won the Stanley Cup in Detroit in ’08 was very similar to the team that lost in the first round to Edmonton in ’06. It’s being in those situations over and over. In 15-to-16 years, we won four. You don’t win twelve. It’s hard to win one.”
People rip on Holland for talking Detroit, but what the hell else is he going to talk about? I’m encouraged by this kind of approach, because it’s unwise to rip the roster apart. In the last many months, the club has added exceptional talent (Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Mattias Ekholm) to the foundation (97, 29, 93, 25 and now 2). You can’t keep adding expensive contracts and you can’t keep adding picks and prospects to offload Zack Kassian every summer because you’re going to run out of picks and prospects. Let this group play an entire season together, tweak at the deadline. Coach Jay Woodcroft doesn’t know who the best partner for Ekholm is, although Bouchard looks fabulous. He doesn’t know what Holloway or Broberg or even Lavoie will do this winter. There are internal pieces that can impact more.
- “You look at Stuart Skinner being a 24-year-old goaltender, and I just actually just met with McLeod, a 23-year-old centre, we’ve got some young people and these are great experiences for them to hopefully be ready next year to go all the way.”
Good news because it suggests the team will stay the course with young players. Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg and Raphael Lavoie are next up, time to see what they can do. I think we’ll know by the deadline and will now make one of those wrongheaded predictions that always bites me in the ass and flies in the face of lessons learned from Petry-Chorney-Wild. I think all three men will contribute in a positive way to the NHL team in 2023-24.
- “Massively, massively disappointed that we didn’t go farther. But I also have a total respect for Vegas. They beat us. They had more points than we did over 82 games. We got our opportunity to play them head-to-head over a two-week tournament, and they won four and we won two.”
I like this quote because it acknowledges the quality of the opponent. The Oilers still have work to do in stifling opposition sorties, cutting down on suicide passes and improving on weaknesses. We’re talking about No. 2 RW and No. 2 RD, but the PK can sometimes wither and Jack Campbell needs to be much better. As fans and observers, we can play the blame game, but management must make tough decisions and the coaching staff has to receive buy-in from everyone and in all areas. Puck control for Vegas is automatic, they play that way all season. Edmonton needs to get down to the heart of the matter, and that’s outscoring five-on-five. Jack Eichel’s game is built for the playoffs. So is Leon Draisaitl’s game. How can the Oilers increase time spent in the offensive zone after gaining possession five-on-five? Vegas is there all day, hell they order a latte and people watch when there! Edmonton needs to find a way to do it, too.
- “Well, the contract’s (Evan Bouchard) got to work. I’ve got to talk to his agent. I think obviously, he’s getting a raise. There’s no doubt he’s getting a raise. Stuart Skinner has already got a raise. He’s gone from $750,000 to $2.6 million [average annual value], so these are all factoring into my decision. I don’t know if it’s a bridge or not. I got to talk to his agent. I’ve got my thoughts. I don’t want to negotiate in the papers. It takes two to tango, and we’ll find a solution.”
It’s a major item and can’t be botched. Ideally it’s six years but realistically it’s shorter. If the cap is guaranteed to go up, then a one-year bridge could be ideal. Of course, he’s destined to break the 50-point barrier so the price will go up.
- “I think everybody can play defence. I think it’s a commitment; it’s a desire; it’s a determination.”
This is very true. I know people are all over Kailer Yamamoto on this, but the truth is KY has been very good at forechecking and is determined when healthy. His inability to play his style and remain healthy, along with the cap issue, makes his situation untenable.
“I think he did a great job. From the time that he’s taken over, whatever day that was in January last year, we might be top-three or top-four in the league in terms of winning percentage since he took over. “We went to the final four last year. We got beat by a real team. They’ve been a real hockey team for five years. Are they not in the final four for the third time in five years? Four out of six? You don’t fluke that. This is the NHL. I think Jay’s done a great job. I think he’s a great young coach, and I reflect back on my time when I was a young general manager and probably doing some things a little bit differently now than I would at that point in time. But that’s what experience is and I’m sure you might do some things a little bit differently when you were young than you would now, so I think that’s what experience gives you.”
Lots of anger for Jay Woodroft online these days, that comes with the territory. I have no quarrel with his riding Stuart Skinner, and as Bob is seeing now, Vegas isn’t your ordinary gun fight. I do think (Woodguy is the first person who referenced it) Woodcroft was caught without an answer for Eichel after both 97 and 29 had played all two minutes of the power play. Part of that was on Woodcroft, the Nuge-Bjugstad-Hyman trio resembled security at sporting events in 1975 (“Hi Frank, how’s the wife?”) and he kept going there. I’ll bet on Woodcroft, who has three series wins in two seasons, as finding answers more quickly a year from now.
AHL GOAL SHARE AT EVENS (ERIC RODGERS)
Mr. Rodgers has delivered the final final results for this season, so I’m going to pass the numbers along over the next while. Here are the even strength GF-GA totals for each Bakersfield Condors defenseman in 2022-23:
- Phil Kemp (71 GP) 51-41, 55 pct
- Vincent Desharnais (13 GP) 7-6, 54 pct
- Mike Kesselring (49 GP) 47-43, 52 pct
- Cam Dineen (19 GP) 14-13, 52 pct
- Markus Niemelainen (30 GP) 18-17, 51 pct
- Max Gildon (41 GP) 28-27, 51 pct
- Jason Demers (57 GP) 41-45, 48 pct
- Philip Broberg (7 GP) 2-3, 40 pct
The men at the top of this list still on Edmonton’s 50-man roster (Kemp, Dineen, Niemelainen) are the first recall options at this time. I think the Oilers could use an upgrade on Jason Demers and would be open to the organization trading for Max Gildon. Here are the “AHL contracts” broken out separately. These men often face lesser competition, although Alex Peters was often in the heart of the battle and I was midly surprised the Oilers didn’t give him an NHL deal.
- Darien Kielb (25 GP) 17-12, 59 pct
- Adam Brubacher (10 GP) 7-5, 58 pct
- Alex Peters (49 GP) 49-38, 56 pct
- Yanni Kaldis (51 GP) 33-39, 46 pct
- Xavier Bernard (12 GP) 4-5, 44 pct
Edmonton’s current Bakersfield depth chart (on Keith Gretzky’s whiteboard) is probably Dineen-Kemp, Niemelainen-Max Wanner (turning pro) and Peters-Bernard. Mars needs women, Bakersfield needs blue.
CONDORS PAST BLUE
For giggles, thought I would run the 2015-16 final numbers (these are also from Eric Rodgers) from the first Bakersfield season.
- Darnell Nurse (9 games) 6-4, 60 pct
- Brad Hunt (57 games) 57-50, 53 pct
- Joey Laleggia (63 games), 54-50, 52 pct
- Dillon Simpson (57 games), 43-39, 52 pct
- Griffin Reinhart (30 games) 22-24, 48 pct
- David Musil (67 games) 46-50, 48 pct
- Martin Gernat (22 games) 15-16 48 pct
- Jordan Oesterle (44 games) 36-41, 47 pct
- Ben Betker (14 games) 6-9, 40 pct
- Nick Pageau (21 games) 8-14, 36 pct
- Nikita Nikitin (30 games) 12-24, 33 pct
The men who made the NHL from this list (Nurse, Hunt, Oesterle) were all good skaters and handled the puck well. All of Simpson, Reinhart and Musil had mobility issues and the game was getting faster by the minute. Edmonton has been miles better at drafting defensemen since Peter Chiarelli’s arrival. Will that continue in the Ken Holland era?
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
We’re back as a team today, TSN 1260. Plenty to discuss, including a question for you. Does the VGK handling of Florida Panthers in the final change your mind about the Oilers? 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Goalies are set but I am very very disappointed by how Woodcroft kept Campbell on the bench and ignored past and present results against Vegas. Good to be loyal to your guys from the Bake but that was a rookie mistake. You give the vet a chance when he performs.
Campbell/Skinner
You keep all of our dmen and work on the combinations during the first half of next season to see what works. Add/adjust at the deadline as necessary. You don’t sell Kulak or Ceci low at the draft only to buy the same guy or worse for much more at the trade deadline.
Nurse Bouchard
Ekholm Broberg
Kulak Ceci Desharnais
I’m fine with dumping both $3 million wingers (Yamo and Fog) to give us almost 6 million in extra cap room. Bjugstad is useful (big RHC) so he’s worth dumping Fog. Especially since a natural replacement is ready (Holloway). Yamo gone for best offer. I like Kostin in the top 6 on Drai’s line with RNH because he ticks’s off so many boxes (shot, speed, aggressiveness, size). Crazy not to give him a run for 25 games. Would like Foegle at RW on L3 but maybe we can make a hockey trade for a cheaper RW version. McLeod and Jugs can anchor the 3rd line and PK together. Get a cheapish UFA 4C who can PK get ready for G1.
Kane McD Hyman
RNH Drai Kostin
McLeod Bjugstad xxx
Holloway xxx Ryan
Lavoie/Philp
We are probably looking at something along these lines but, if they move Fogs, in addition to Yamo, they may try and get someone externally for 2RW/6F – nothing extravagant but something.
Its tough to see the Oilers being able to fit Bjugstad in unless he’s willing to take a good $500K – $1MM discount to market and sign back in the $1.25MM range.
Even with Yamamoto out there may not even be enough cap space to re-sign Bouchard and McLeod and fill the rest of the roster out cheaply.
I do think Nick would like to say – I would encourage all to listen to the Hello Hockey Pod (Gazolla and Belle) from this past Saturday – they had Mark Pysyk on and Bjugstad stayed in his house once traded – some good intel on their friendship and how many in their social circle are pushing Bjugstad to re-sign.
17 goals is 17 goals and that likely gets him offers in the $1.75MM to $2MM range – too rich for the Oilers in the bottom 6C/RW role.
Its interesting though, the Oilers would like to find a cheap vet to replace Yamo at 6F and, truth be told, there is a 6’6 mid-career RW/C that is reasonably responsible defensively and can PK the just scored 17 goals that will come in much cheaper than Yamo …..
Is there a chance that Bjugstad is brought back as an option for 6F/2RD and to compete with the likes of Holloway for that spot?
I was just looking at what an Oilers roster might look like with only Yamamoto moved out.
It depends on all the AAVs for the guys who re-sign obviously. I guessed (slightly optimistically?) at:
Bouchard $3.8M x 2
McLeod $1.2M x 2
Kostin $1.1M x 2
Ryan $1.0M x 1
Lavoie $800k x 2
Philip $800k x 2
That left me with 21 players signed and $1.13M in Cap for the 22nd player (13th forward). Not enough for Bjugstad even at $1.25M unless some more dollars are shaved off the above, but close.
Perhaps he would take something in that range if there was a bit of term attached? (say $1.2M x 3). Who knows, but the guy has played for 5 teams in the last 5 years, and has been on 1 year deals under $1M for the last couple.
If he enjoyed his time with the team you can see how some certainty and security would be appealing (as well a playing for a contender).
He turns 31 next month so a 3 year deal isn’t without risk, but if it’s near the bury-able amount then that’s mitigated pretty well.
Previous comparable Brogan Rafferty’s agent must really have shat the bed then.
He’s not a bust and have never said so.
I have always believed his upside is a good second pairing D and still do.
At this point in his career he should be paid at least $4.5 million to play that role.
Once the cap takes a significant jump, second pairing D will see an increase in compensation.
Ya, maybe. I don’t know if he would want term and take less for it or if he thinks that limits his upside over the next 3 years????
Would “we” be happy with Bjugstad as the Yamo replacement? I mean, it doesn’t “feel” like a real upgrade but, if we look at the market, Bjugstad kind of fits the description a bit and, if he was a pure external UFA coming off the season he had (with no Oilers relation), he would probably be mentioned in the conversation, right?
I know he played some second line in the playoffs and it didn’t go great but that was 2C against a tough opponent – the premise here would be RW with an elite center.
Yeah no idea if he would want that over the other options he might have.
I look at Yamamoto (or Kulak or Foegele) out as sunk cost. One of them going is a necessity, so we can’t expect an actual upgrade for the fraction of that players salary that can be put to a replacement.
I would be quite happy to have Bjugstad back at $1.2M though.
If Yamamoto does depart and Bjugstad re-signs, I would still expect Foegele as the most likely replacement at 2RW. He’s had pretty good success with Draisaitl, and the sample size isn’t so small. Bjugstad, Holloway and Kostin would be the next set of options, but I certainly wouldn’t plan on Bjugstad as the guy playing in that spot.
To me a Bjug started strong and regressed to the contracts he was earning. Goals aside he couldn’t help stop the bleeding
He didn’t help when it was needed. Each player has to push so the group succeeds. All the slowish non pushers can find new homes for me. Or things can’t move forward, as opposed to what Holland says
It is more than the experience that is the problem for the older players. The older Oiler guys as opposed to deadline guys have experienced some pretty big fails more than once, what more motivation and heartbreak do you need to want to protect your own net?
Campbell (50% ret), Yamo, the 2024
1st rounder for Hart.
I’d make this trade all day. Not sure Philly would but they would need someone to play goal if they trade Hart. Hmmmmm….
Work your magic Kenny and go get Hart.
Maybe Cody Ceci, Yamamoto, and a 1st and 3rd for Konecny and Ristolainen with salary retained.
Wow. Crazy trade. I love crazy trades.
Columbus is the big winner here. They get Provorov in his prime at a cap hit just over $4M for a late 1st round pick, and a 2nd.
LA is also a winner here. They divest themselves of Cal Pedersen’s contract … although they retain ~$2M on Provorov. They also shed Walker’s contract for a total cap savings of ~$5M. All for a 2nd round pick, and a recent 2nd round selection.
Philly … gets a late 1st rounder, two 2nd’s, a prospect, and one year of RD Sean Walker. They also have to pay Cal Pedersen to play goal poorly. This is the kind of move a team makes at the outset of a loooooong re-build.
One wrinkle here is that Peterson is due a $4 million signing bonus on July 15th.
Rob Blake clearing cap space to sign Gavrikov to a $6MM (plus) term deal and I’m here for it.
As long as he doesn’t use it to trade for Hellebuyck. That would make it very tough for us to get out of the Pacific. I’m hoping he ends up in Buffalo or Ottawa.
Astounding that some are denigrating Gavrikov.
In 20 regular season games with LAK:
FF 57.31%
SF 60.05%
GF 70%
HDGF 70%
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&playerid=8478882&sit=5v5&stype=2
With $13MM in cap space, it would seem signing Gavrikov and pursuing Hellebuyck is possible.
The question then is what does Winnipeg want back? Publicly (at least) Chevy has said he’s not interested in rebuilding, so a package of picks and prospects won’t cut it.
Summer is getting more interesting by the day.
It’s hard to say what they would want without knowing what they will do with Scheifle, PLD and Wheeler.
The return on those players may dictate everything.
Brilliant trade for LA dumping Pedersen. Provorov was not very good this year, but maybe he can be okay as a second pairing guy in Columbus.
If he doubles down by signing Gavrikov to anything near $6MM per, let along north of it, I will be very very happy – notwithstanding a small sample size of high possession metrics.
Just came in to say I appreciate LT referencing a hilarious track by Sparks that came out… in 2023.
Seravalli has Hall high on his trade board. Gimme. No i don’t know how to make it work. Maybe add Parayko too but that’s even richer and more difficult. Plenty of trade options this summer, not a tonne of free agents.
Okay…it’s official…Hart is not involved but Philly is reported to be involved in separate talks.
https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/kings-acquire-kevin-connauton-and-hayden-hodgson-in-three-team-trade/c-344759272
https://mayorsmanor.com/2023/06/trade-alert-kings-send-trio-of-players-to-philadelphia-flyers-setting-up-gavrikov-signing/
LAK now with $13 million in cap space after clearing Walker and Peterson.
Its reported Gavrokov’s agent Dan Milstein wants a 2 year deal in the $6 -6.5 million range.
I wonder if they’ll take a run at Hellebuyck as has been speculated.
I don’t think that having O zone time and entries is the problem. They did better than Vegas. It’s what they try when there that is the issue. They cycle like mad and aren’t very dangerous in attacking over all. They score and get some beauties but it sure fizzles in the playoffs 5v5. Lots of perimeter and meh point shots if there’s any structure from the bad guys
I agree this is good news and, for me, the “correct path”.
Yes, the window is open and its “win now” and trading prospects for established players makes sense within that context but, at the same time, in order to “win now”, teams generally need various players out-performing their cap hits and this often comes with the ELCs and cheap second contracts. I have full confidence that both Broberg and Holloway will vastly outperform their cap hits this coming season and over the next few seasons (i.e. threw their second contracts). That has value in “win now”.
The next tier, the likes of Bourgault, future 1st round picks, etc.. yes, they could/should be “available” but the cupboards can’t be picked dry, there needs to be some potential to continue to add internally.
Not to mention, trading any prospect/pick for established impact is just, well, really hard right now given the cap crunch – its likely best to save the trade currency for the deadline, right?
No matter what the final details are on this 3-way trade, I’m confidant that Holland will be criticized by the cool kids for not dumping Campbell and bringing in Hart. Other GMs making moves equates to Holland sitting on his hands and collecting $5MM.
I wish that I could be like the cool kids. ‘Cause all the cool kids, they seem to fit in
Friedman reporting there is a three way deal being worked on between LAK, CLB and PHA.
Marek speculating that it may include Carter Hart to LA and Provorov to Columbus.
The Friedman thread on this.
https://twitter.com/friedgehnic/status/1666137951200514048?s=61&t=WWzo5XOO0SDsOISFpfGKMg
It appears LAK send Sean Walker and Cal Peterson to PHA in return for Hart allowing the Kings to re-sign Gavrikov.
I would hope Hart would cost a lot more than Peterson and Walker?
Some uncertainty if he is involved.
Walker and Peterson is like Yamamoto and Campbell. Likely worse actually.
So yeah, 1st(s) will be involved if Hart is going back the other way.
Rockies (Av’s) will continue slipping back but Vegas, Dallas and especially L.A are going to be hard teams to beat if you have to go through all 3 to win a Cup
I wouldn’t count on Colorado slipping back.
Their season was sewered by the Landeskog injury uncertainty and the Nichushkin incident in the playoffs.
Now that they have certainty they have more than $20 million in cap space to address their #2C vacancy as well as bolster their depth.
With one of the best D cores in the league, good goaltending and dynamic forwards, they should recover nicely.
Some very smart guys running that team.
— Plus as yours truly dutifully reported in the Summer: having attended an event with Cup when it was in GTA: the boys partied crazy hard even by Cup standards and were not close to being ready for the season…
Yep..the cup hangover is a thing.
Marek’s a poser who puts out stuff for clicks. No one else is reporting Hart in this trade. No way the Flyers are moving him out.
And Seattle. No gimmes in the WC for our Oilers, gotta play like champs from the get-go
Marek reporting Philly will get a first and second round pick from Columbus and a second from LA.
An update.
https://www.thefourthperiod.com/jun-2023/blue-jackets-acquire-provorov-in-3-way-trade
Blake should be fired
The 30% retained and Walker’s deal are close to a wash. So Kings clear out some cap space by getting out of Petersen’s deal … so that they can go and overpay Korpisalo and Gavrikov. I’m OK with that.
Apparently they will not be re-signing Korpisalo.
Moving Walker also clears a spot for Brandt Clarke.
This trade seems like shifting of the deck chairs on the Titanic.
Philly is a bit worse without Provorov, but he had become a distraction in their dressing room.
Columbus is a bit better with Provorov, but he probably doesn’t move the needle enough to get them into the playoffs; they also become that much more unlikeable with the fan base, on the heels of reportedly hiring Babcock.
Kings dump some cap, so that they can sign Gavrikov and sign or acquire Korpisalo or another goalie.
Getting out of Petersen’s deal for a 2nd sets the bar at what it would cost to unload Campbell’s deal this summer. Best thing to do is let him play next season … if he can find his game, then Holland should dump that contract immediately to a team hungry for goaltending once the season is underway. If not, then you buy him out next summer … with the cap going up then, the buyout will be much easier to swallow.
Peterson had only two years remaining while Campbell has four.
No Sh$t Sherlock … everyone here knows how many years are left on Campbell’s contract.
With respect, he is right and its an important point. We know what it took to get rid of two years of Petersen and it would be MUCH more expensive to move 4 years of Campbell.
Not debating that it would be more expensive to move Campbell, but Campbell did have a much longer track record prior to signing his $5M deal than Petersen.
And Petersen has also had 2 consecutive seasons of major struggle vs. only 1 for Campbell.
Prior to signing a $5M deal (Petersen 3 yrs, Campbell 5 yrs):
Petersen 54GP 19-25-6 2.79 .916 (his platform season was 35GP/2.89/.911)
Campbell 135GP 71-39-14 2.53 .916 (platform season was 49GP/2.64/.914)
Since signing:
Petersen 47GP 25-17-4 3.07 .890 (across 2 seasons)
Campbell 36GP 21-9-4 3.41 .888
Petersen also has a career .904 SV% in the AHL (as well as a .904 SV% in the AHL the past season).
I would say there’s more hope for a rebound from Campbell than for Petersen (that would not outweigh the 4 vs. 2 years remaining on their deals, but IMO would bring it the equation a bit closer).
Clarke is still the 4RD no? Walker was playing his off side with Durzi when in the lineup.
I expect Clarke will surpass Durzi very quickly who will become trade bait.
Jordan Spence is more than ready for the NHL.
Mark Pysyk seems to be the ideal (Demers) veteran upside gamble option this year. His age (31) and contract (850k) last year makes him a low risk bet. If the injury recovery is complete he would be a great depth signing for the RHD. He is not giant (6’1″) that the Oilers favor on D, but the Oilers are flush with giants already.
He was on Hello Hockey this past Saturday. Says his recovery is coming along. Still not able to really “jump” though.
— Security at sporting event in 1975:”Hi Frank..” so awesome!
— Vegas was one of the handful of teams that fits the mold of a Cup winner at start of playoffs. The Stanley Cup does a very good job of rewarding teams that are elite over many seasons leading up to their Cup Win(s). Almost always. They were the only one left in semis that would be a “traditional” Cup winner IMO. The other teams not enough tenure.
— Next year the Oil could be a worthy addition: lost to the last two Cup winners, an all-time great (all the all time greats win at least one), plus Drai and learning to win
—. No guarantees of course, and there will be a good 4-6 worthy teams next year that will invariably win the Cup. One such team are the Oilers.
One sobering thought about Vegas is that they go into the offseason with almost $8.5 million in free cap space assuming Lehner remains on LTIR.
The only two free agents of note are Barbashev and Hill so they can quite easily run back the same lineup should they so choose.
Its likely safe to assume they won’t have to employ 5 goaltenders throughout the season so should be expected to perform better.
In addition, they should also have Mark Stone in the lineup all season resulting in even better results.
I would quibble about Stone. He’s missed a fair amount of time over the years, has had two back surgeries, and will be 32 next season. Seems as likely that he’ll be out for some portion of the season as playing a full season.
Yes…entirely possible but you never know with injuries.
Oilers lost to Vegas because of 2 reasons straight up. 1) Yamamoto in the top 6 was a huge mismatch 2) Skinner shitting the bed and Woody’s refusal to play Campbell when he knew Skinner was being owned by the Vegas offence.
— In no particular order here’s why I think they lost:
1) Lost all the one goal games (luck? Or Will?)
2) Drai not Drai’ng
3) Nuge not nuging
3) some poor individual goalering
4) Too much reliance on McDrai and PP
5) out coached not able to adjust more
6) Home ice : that first game at home after being away for weeks was scheduled loss.
7) Just not enough lines to sustain.
They were at some times just so dominating, but they don’t have enough outs to win without exceptional skill. Which isn’t enough to win Cups
Another factor is likely McDavid and Draisaitl running out of gas.
They both averaged more than 23 minutes per game in the playoffs.
Contrast that with Eichel (19:08) and Marchessault (17:24).
Depth pays off.
In the game after the Pietrangelo slash, Drai was mugged from behind by Hague. He got up gingerly and never seemed the same since.
Hague also injured Hyman with a dirty knee-on-knee hit that went uncalled, of course.
Ceci was a weak link
Woodcroft got the matchups wrong on the Eichel line.
You could also argue that not upgrading Desharnais was a mistake.
Skinner’s performance seemed poor, but he has company these playoffs with how other goalies have performed against Vegas.
Are we forgetting about Yamamoto?
Yamamoto was poor defensively. He had a lot of good looks and couldn’t finish either.
Was Yamamoto poor defensively?
There’s no question he didn’t move the needle or contribute any offense.
But I feel like the illusion of poor defense was created by Godot singling Yamamoto out every time he was on the ice when a goal was scored.
Maybe I’m forgetting but the only goal against I can remember where Yamamoto could reasonably have impacted the play was when Marchassault (I think) scored from the high slot with Yamamoto was unable to clear a 50/50 puck vs. 2 Knights.
He was the team leader in GA/60 at 5v5.
4.15 ga/60 is a ghastly number.
You could counter with PDO and on ice SV%
I’m not sure whether those numbers can’t be bent by defensive lapses in small samples sizes or not.
He also led with HDGA/60. He was top 4 in FA/60.
The only numbers that would allow you to pick him out of a lineup are GA/60, HDGA/60 and on ice SV%. His xGA/60 was 2.78.
We know defensemen don’t control on ice SV%, so it’s even less likely that a forward would be impacting that.
And the closest things to Oilers killers this playoffs were Marchassault and Kempe, but they both play RW (ie – as far away from Yamamoto’s responsibility as they could be).
Never mind that nothing about his regular season or previous career resembles 4.15 GA/60.
While that’s the crux of what generally gets bandied about, it also lacks accuracy as well as nuance.
The TLDR version is that your statement leads to the erroneous conclusion that if a defensemen’s (or forwards) on ice save percentage drops in a short window of time, it’s only due to bad luck.
Dellow expounded on this here.
I was partly referring to our years old discussions of Justin Faulk with the ‘we know’.
Interesting to be arguing the other side now. I guess that bit by Dellow hadn’t even been written during the Faulk talk.
So it sounds like you’re saying that in those 12 games, in your opinion, Yamamoto does own his on ice SV%?
No, I’m not specifically saying that. Stuart Skinner (and Campbell in relief) are the only one(s) who own the on ice save percentage.
On ice save percentage is a problematic stat. There’s a lot of white noise. You can’t run around and compare players (skaters) from different teams on the basis of their on ice save percentage and derive anything meaningful.
In that sense, my recollection about what I said about Faulk hasn’t changed at all.
Players with poor on ice save percentages. On the aggregate they appear to regress to the mean. Some of that is due to changes in luck. Coaches making decisions, moving d up and down the lineup. Changing partners, decreasing minutes. Changing their level of competition. potential improvement year-over-year for younger players.
Some guys like Julius Honka, who was his team leader in GA/60 and lowest on ice save percentage for over 300 minutes played in his last season… He regressed to the SM-Liiga the following season.
As for Yamamoto, visually his performance stood out as being poor defensively… It aligned with his GA/60 and on ice save percentage. Now, there’s 9 other skaters plus 2 goalies on the ice, so he doesn’t own his on ice save percentage. But he was a negative outlier during the playoffs and he could be partially culpable for that.
I can certainly agree with that.
I didn’t think he was poor defensively by eye though (my first comment).
And the only numerical evidence we have for him being poor boils down to on ice SV% which is equivocal on the cause.
I guess there’s not much else to say then.
I remember one goal against that stands out but it had Yamo in a terrible position due to the Oilers system that permitted (or even required) the d-man to stick with his man as far as the blue line and requiring the forward to cycle low and cover the man in the slot – Yamo got victimized by the forward in that situation at least once.
To be honest, my eye test leads me to think that Yamo just wasn’t as “solid position wise” during this season but I think the numbers show that, as he always does, his presence seems to help outscore.
Yup, Leon’s goals share was 49% without Yamo and 58% with.
Yamamoto avoided bodily contact in a contact sport. The opposition takes it easy on Yamamoto in the Regular season no one wants to be known as the guy that hurt little Yamo. When it comes to playoff all bets are off. Could you imagine Tkachuk nailing Yamo like the Eichel hit. The ice crew would of been picking up bone’s scattered all over the place not to mention blood.
This just, well, is not true.
Its like completely made up.
IMO opinion Carolina and Edmonton are 2 that “fit the mold” for next year. as you say there are usually 4-6 LEGIT teams that can win it all
— Carolina contingent on having another excellent season. yes Edmonton. Colorado. Leafs. Vegas. Boston. Florida if they have a good season. I guess Tampa if they have one more run. Probably one more to add to list.
NJ and Dallas are in that group.
— Dallas has had a good run. Went to Cup recently. So sure. Jersey didn’t make playoffs for 4 years prior to losing in First round. That profile doesn’t typically get rewarded with a Cup.
— Basically win a bunch of rounds in prior 3-5 years. Have some studs. A bunch of 100 point plus season’s recent. Won a Cup recently. Lost in finals or semis year or two prior. Every year come playoffs it’s a small subset that fit sometimes you get “undeserving” teams like STL or Carolina. But rarely.
Sorry, I meant to type NYR (not NJ).
— If they won next year then another one or got close sure but in the last 6 years they only got out of 1st round once and missed playoffs 3 times. That’s not the typical track record of theCup winner (unless next year is an early win in an upper echelon 3-5 year stretch).
Good post LT… the wound of losing is starting to heal, and yes it definitely appears that the better team won. I think that’s why it stings so much today, knowing if we had have beaten the Knights our window was wide open to win it all this year.
I’m sure my posts of ‘defense wins championships’ was hit or miss with others here. Glad you took the time to point this out specifically. We saw glimpses, but doing it consistently eluded the Oilers and was the ultimate reason we lost.
Of course the Woodguy data for that line was eye popping as well, but better team defense over 82 games consistently will get them over the hump. I suspect Ekholm will have more impact on this gap on the defense over an entire season, but it’s going to take all forward players to buy in and the coach to tweak the system for it to make the difference when it matters most.
I thought the Kassian hit was a thing of beauty but the Eichel hit tops it by a mile. They must of shown the replay 25 times and it was as clean and at the same time violent hit that I have ever seen. Between the Tkachuk clan Matt is by far the filthiest of them all. We could of had Matt what a dumb choice going Whale hunting on the Jesse pick instead.
Wasn’t the verbal that we were going to trade down (Dubois to Montreal to grab Sergachev +) before Jesse slid?
Yes that was the verbal … that would’ve been even better. With Nurse and Sergachev, there would be no need to go after Keith or Ekholm, and arguably they could have drafted a forward instead of Broberg.
The rumoured trade was Drai and Nurse and a swap of picks for Subban… that is decidedly not better.
True, the deal itself would have been terrible if Drai was included. But the Oilers appeared to have zeroed in on Sergachev as their pick … they should have stuck to their guns.
I wonder how the picks of Nurse over Horvat, Jesse over Tkachuk and Zegra-over Broberg would of changed the fortunes of this team. If we would of had Maggie the Monkey in charge of picking the best player in the draft instead of the I’m the smartest man in the room theory. I have no doubt we win a Cup with Connor and Leon picks staying intact.
Nurse over Horvat every single day.
And twice on Sunday. WTAF people??
As it turns out, of course, Tkachuk would have been the better pick.
Were you calling it a dump pick at the time – I don’t recall a single commentator, poster, blogger not being on board with picking Puljujarvi at 4th.
Did the Oilers even know what they were getting? Peter ran up to podium so fast he almost tripped after the Jackets choice Luc-Dubois. Did they even talk to this player (Jesse) and his idiot agent before hand and see what they had to say about development. Maybe you had privy meetings with the top 7 or 8 projected picks while sitting 4 in the hole on the draft but I never did as I am only a fan. If I’m making the kind of money Peter or Holland makes I would dam sure have talked or my trusted team would have spoken to the top 10 picks. I would have also talked to the projected players for my 2nd pick like Connor’s buddy Debrincat. This is not rocket Science ex players (scouts) should be able to have a good grasp on what kind of individual they recommend.
With the very odd exception (i.e. Jarmo) pretty much every hockey person would have recommended the player and its likely that every other GM in the league would also have run up and risked tipping to make the pick.
I’m not sure you have any information on what the Oilers did and did not know about the player/person or what type of diligence they did but, while this turned out to be a bad selection, it was clearly a no-brainer pick at the time.
By all the talk after the fact they never had a clue what Jesse and his agent had in store for the organization. The Jesse pick cost a lot of people their jobs and rightfully so, you can’t wing it when your picking 4th you need a plan for every scenario. Where I come from the saying goes you can’t bullshit a bullshitter. Oilers did not do their due diligence on Jesse and anyone that thinks otherwise is so used to losing that they crave it
Vegas had been a very good team all year … when Logan Thompson went down, I thought they would get done in by their goaltending. Brossoit getting injured was the best thing that happened to them all season, as he was looking pretty mediocre. Hill has had an incredible run since.
LT, one of the many reasons I love this blog is how you work in hilariously apropos examples to enliven your prose. This line — “part of what was on Woodcroft . . . resembled security at sporting evens in 1975” — reminded me of a concert I saw sometime in the mid-1980s in the Meadowlands Arena in NJ. I was on the floor near the back where it meet the stands. Some drunk or stoned clown comes racing down the steps, jumps the chain, and races toward the stage. Joe security guy races after him. 50 more people jump the now undefended floor.
This has taken a life of its own, but I think it deserves some correcting.
The Marchassault-Eichel-Barbashev line owned the Oilers on the score sheet (7-1 as a line, Eichel-Marchassault 8-1 with Barbashev missing for one of the goals). xGoals were 3.31-2.74, but goals scored were indeed extremely lop sided.
Using Eichel as a proxy
Game 1
-The Eichel line went 1-0 goals (Barbashev), scoring the 4-3 goal.
McLeod-Nuge-Foegele were the forwards on the ice for the Oilers.
It was on the 2nd shift after a PP.
Game 2
No goals were scored either way with the Eichel line on the ice.
Game 3
The Eichel line went 3-0 goals (Marchassault, Marchassault, Eichel).
-The 1st was the 1-1 goal, on the 2nd shift after Foegele had put the Oilers up 1-0.
Nuge-Bjugstad-Hyman were on the ice.
No PPs were involved.
-2nd goal was the 2-1 goal at the end of the 1st.
Nuge-Bjugstad-Yamamoto were on the ice.
There was no PPs in the game at that point.
-3rd goal was the 4-1 goal mid-2nd.
Kane-McDavid-Draisaitl were on for that one.
No PPs anywhere around.
Game 4 0-0
The Eichel line went 0-1 goals.
Game 5 2-0
The Eichel line went 2-0 goals (Eichel, Hague)
-The 1st was the 1-1 goal after McDavid scored on the PP to take the lead.
Janmark-Bjugstad-Kostin was the line.
This was again the 2nd shift after a PP.
-The 2nd was the 4-1 goal shortly after Vegas had scored 2 5 on 3 and then 5 on 4.
Kane-Draisaitl-Yamamoto was the line.
No Oiler PPs were anywhere in picture.
Game 6 2-0
The Eichel line went 2-0 goals (Marchassault, Marchassault).
-Both were in the 2nd to go up 2-1 and 3-1.
Both were against the Nuge-Draisaitl-Yamamoto line.
No PPs had been called in the game to that point.
So of the 8 goals scored by the Eichel line only 2 came within 2 shifts of a PP. Bjugstad was only involved in 1 of those.
Nuge-Bjugstad-Hyman was only on the ice for 1 Eichel line goal in the series. There were a rotating cast of Oiler lines and basically all were victimized by the Eichel line. Woodcroft did switch things up but it didn’t help (it’s true he did not line McDavid up against Eichel often).
Centers on for Eichel line goals against were:
Bjugstad and Draisaitl – 3
McDavid and Nuge – 1
All manner of different wingers got scored on as well.
Yamamoto on for 4 of the 8 ….
Yup. Overall:
Nuge 5
Yamamoto and Draisaitl 4
Bjugstad 3
I believe I heard the Eichel line in 14-6 in even strength goals in the playoffs.
Thats ridiculous.
Vegas’ puck management is really a sight to marvel. Went to game 6 and every time things started looking spicy they just lifted it up and out and is stopped at our blueline. Reset after reset. It’s exhausting to watch the team come in waves, but the dam is too big and stands strong. Of course we had chances and Hill put on a clinic in the 3rd but overall Eichel and co showed an exceptional performance.
They’re the better team resoundingly (imo) during these first 2 final games. Chucky is looking like when he played us last year. Trying everything to shake things up but he’s 1 guy in the ultimate team sport. Bob looks ordinary. I bet Vegas in 5 but im not happy about it.
Our boys are closer than it feels this year.
What you’re describing is players that can play a good system and play the game plan
That the Oilers couldn’t break it down I’d on them and the coaches. Like Vegas saying we had a plan and broke down the Oilers laughable man on man
They used tactics and we didn’t. Strong team the goalies almost always look good. Weak team they don’t. Bob has been playing well but Florida hasn’t played a team with this skill level up front and as organized tactically
The first game I saw two goals where Bob was mad because the screen caused the goals. But the Vegas players both used a Panther guy who was in the high slot as the screen. Thinking the game. The Canes did half assed screens like we do, at times sending two guys who stood right against the D stationary
What that did was put so many bodies in front there was no lane. Only a lucky shot could get through. Rod was drawing up more point shots but from the middle, probably trying to get a lane so the shot actually got to the net. Times have changed
2 of the best deadline acquisitions of the last 2 playoffs were:
LEHKONEN (COL)
BARBASHEV (VGS)
KH bringing in Ekholm was excellent this year. I think next year at the deadline he aims for a legit Top 6 winger like the 2 above.
we wait.
Worth noting that Vegas is making every goalie look like a sieve. They have multiple snipers on every line. They are really dangerous on the rush with the trailer which also killed the Oilers.
and this is Why Woodcroft must keep Leon and McDavid on separate lines all year and in the playoffs. Those 2 can play together on the PP and connect that way.
Edmonton needs to have 3 lines (or 4) that are a legit threat to score and are sound defensively.
— I have long held this is the key. Rather than all-time individual performances Vegas has tough lines. The Oilers are “easy” to beat by good playoff times: “stave off the super-line and be better top to bottom”
— Oil get tricked into believing how deadly they are when teams aren’t playing 7 game tourneys against excellent opposition.
It sees to me that, in both playoff seasons, Woody used injury as an excuse to load them together. Last season it was likely real and necessary given how hobbled Leon was. No doubt McDavid was far less than 100% this playoff season (or most of it) but, to my eye, he was definitely healthy enough to drive his own outscoring line without Leon (even if he didn’t have the cutting mobility or extra 7% that no-one else has that he normally does).
went back over all the Cinderella teams for the last 40 years, and the only team that I can see who actually won the Cup was the 2012 Kings. They were the #8 seed in the West and beat the President’s Trophy winning Canucks on their way to winning the Cup.
The clock strikes midnight too quick for all other Cinderella’s (including our 2006 Oilers).
— The Kings though backed it up with another Cup and a bunch of years of being elite with some studs. They had worthy teams IMO. Florida this year (unless they were to win mother one) would be amongst the worst teams to wi. A Cup: 1 point ahead of two other teams no recent playoff success. That team doesn’t win generally.
I wish that more posters would just acknowledge that Vegas is good.
The one big question mark was in goal, but Hill has pretty much answered those questions in the playoffs.
Vegas has had success with lots of different goalies because their defense is soooooo good. When you compare Florida and Vegas I doubt any of Staal, Gudas or Mahura would even crack the Vegas top 6.
And Eichel is really good. I think he deserves a little love, he’s been through a lot the last few years. Center depth of Eichel, Stephenson, Karlsson and Roy is really impressive.
Florida has some good players, and they went on a nice run with Bobrovsky, but they just aren’t as deep as Vegas.
It’s the playoffs, and Florida could still win, but over an 82 game season Vegas is just better.
who’s saying Vegas isn’t good? that would be silly …. Vegas got the number 1 seed and it helped them, by facing a weak WPG team in round 1. Same situation played out last year when Colorado had the #1 seed and got NSH in round 1.
Lesson for Edmonton? Start the season on time. Get the #1 seed.
If VGS Does win the Cup that is 2 years in a row Edm was eliminated by the Cup Champ.
Posters on here have been whining about Vegas getting preferential treatment, circumventing the salary cap, etc.
There also seems to be an irrational hatred for Eichel simply because he was picked 2nd to McDavid in 2015. I would much rather watch Eichel for 82 games than Matthew Tkachuk.
Yeah, Vegas is good. But Edmonton is better than Florida, as a hockey team, there is no doubt in my mind. Thatchuk is toxic, he should be taken out back and given a sound thrashing.
— There was that regular season game in Vegas that the Oil blew them away. They also looked elite in the games they won Vs Vegas in playoffs. They should learn a lot from all of this.
Absolutely Vegas is good but I think the Oilers are right there with them and, if you played that Knights/Oilers series 10 time, the Oilers probably win it 3 or 5 or 6 times.
As much as I dislike the Knights and am actively cheering for Tkachuk and the Panthers, the Knights are full value for where they are.
Aidin Hill is pulling a Roli – he’s not really all that good but he’s hot as hell right now and playing a material role in his team’s success.
Vegas is a good team.
I
Everyone can play defence and, in fact, everyone on the Oilers has shown they can play defence.
Where I believe there have been issues over the years is the commitment to do it consistently – the commitment to hustle back and ensure that 3rd man doesn’t beat you to the net or the puck, for example – EVERY TIME.
Not to single out Drai but I’ve seen him be an elite 2-way/defensive player – he has that in him. At the same time, the consistency isn’t there and, more than most, that 3rd guy on the rush that gets the rebound or the tip or the one-timer has Drai in the picture a few steps back.
Most of the time, he’s not a few steps back but more often than it should be, he is.
Sure, maybe in the odd game in December, even Bergeron and Barkov are lax on a play but not in May and June, that’s for sure.
Just my opinion but the backcheck issue starts deep in the o-zone. McD and Drais linger a second longer in the offensive zone looking for loose pucks/knocking down outlet passes. They are both excellent at keeping plays alive for second and third opportunities.
However, when they miss, they are a step behind the backcheck. McD has the wheels to get back more often than not. Drais doesn’t quite have that pace.
Secondary issue is shift length. They extend shifts regularly when they sense an opening. This impacts them when the puck is turned over.
I get the impression Woody is OK with this system for the most part as it pays dividends during the regular season.
Playoffs however…
This is a very good response and I respect the info.
You very well could be right, however, I guess what I was getting at are the times when that 3rd guys is able to make the positive play (shot, rebound, net drive) and it seems like the forward just didn’t bust ass back 100% – glided the last few strides or simply didn’t recognize – situations where they could have been there to disrupt that 3rd forwards.
I just remember watching the two conference finals and, in particular in the west, and time after time after time, that forward coming back consistently made the defensive play, often by a whisker and an out-stretched stick the broke up a play – whether it was Karlsson or Smith or Robertson or even Seguin – it seemed they were always there.
Now, of course, over the course of a season, it might not be quite consistent but, at you said, “playoffs however”.
Also, I should note, the commitment I’m talking about isn’t just the forward busting his ass back to be there to break up a play, that’s just one example. This can extrapolate to many things: for example, tying up the stick of the attacker in the high slot, getting in the shooting lane (see Hyman/Kane) ever time, etc.