I’ve always been fascinating by the progress made by young players, especially rookies, in the second half of an AHL season. Through the selfless and quality work of Eric Rodgers, we are able to see the Bakersfield Condors of 2022-23 spiked after mid-January. One punched his ticket (Mike Kesselring) to the NHL in the back half of the year and there is more to come.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers fan survey results: Belief remains in team’s Stanley Cup window
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
ROOKIE SPLITS
Rodgers has been doing this for a long time, and has gifted me with splits since the 2016-17 season. Time and again true prospects spike in a season during their entry deals. Hell, Evan Bouchard did it as a rookie AHL player. Let’s look at this year’s totals more closely.
Raphael Lavoie turned it on in a big way, specifically his goal scoring. Edmonton has a nice opportunity here with another second-round selection. Edmonton had some good scouting and fortune recently with Ryan McLeod (second round of the 2018 draft) and haven’t had two seconds in a row hit since 2002 (Jarret Stoll and Matt Greene). You could count Tyler Pitlick and Martin Marincin in 2010, if you wish. I had Lavoie No. 26 (Broberg 16) in his draft year, it would be dynamite to see him cash.
Dylan Holloway delivered across the board in his 12 AHL games, and for someone like me who doubts only his offense, the young man delivered in an important area. I’m about two weeks from beginning my work on reasonable expectations and am doing two versisons of Holloway. One for the skill lines, one for the depth. He’s an important young player for Edmonton.
Noah Philp arrived in the AHL last fall pretty much fully formed as a two-way player, but it took some time for the coaching staff to move him to center. There he took off and found his way offensively. There are some vague whispers about his future with the organization, those whispers are to this point a mystery. There is no sound hockey reason for the organization to fade this player. Hell I give him a great chance to make the team this fall.
Xavier Bourgault was disappointing offensively in his first pro season, but he did post some nice boxcars. The revelation is his mature two-way play. Bourgault’s impressive results (37-25 goals) at even strength suggest he has far more range than initially suggested by draft day scouting reports. Intriguing player.
Mike Kesselring spiked offensively (10 goals!) in the first half, and his goal differential at even strength came on bigly in the second half of the year. Edmonton traded away a prospect who was peaking and NHL-ready, it will be interesting to see how high he can fly.
Tyler Tullio was a consistent player all year. The coaching staff was slow to recognize what he can bring, and his boxcars don’t sing because it’s all even strength totals, but I like him plenty and would project him as a player who will see the NHL, at least for a time.
Phil Kemp showed consistency and is now the last man standing on RH defense after a watershed run by the organization that began with Ethan Bear’s arrival in Bakersfield for the 2017-18 campaign. I think he is likely to see the NHL next season.
Carter Savoie’s second half featured rare goals and a stunning even-strength goal differential that I would suggest is borderline impossible. There’s too much talent here, it will shine through, but that was a tough statistical season. Among the toughest I’ve ever seen.
BLASTS FROM THE PAST
Evan Bouchard is my favourite story around AHL splits. In the first 27 games of the 2019-20 season, his even-strength goal share was 18-29, 38 percent. In the final 27 games, he went 23-22, 51 percent. Music!
Ryan McLeod began 2018-19 by going 17-17 goals EV in the first 27 games, then posted 17-17 in his final 29 games. Philip Broberg was 3-5 in his first nine games in 2021-22 and then finished 27-10 in his final 22 games.
ADAM SHERREN, VOL 2 (2003 born players)
Most 2003 born players have gone through two drafts. Now that we’re starting to see increased cases of teams drafting players in there second year eligibility, there seems to be limited options in drafting 19 y/o players. One sticky thing about drafting a guy with this birthyear is where to play him. Do you send him back to major junior as an overage player? Do you sign him right away (kind of contradictory to the idea of draft and follow). One possibility is to sign the player to an AHL deal to get him through the season in the AHL/ECHL and start him into your development program. For these players I’m looking for forwards with close to 1.0 PPG for consideration. I haven’t a lot of 2003 options to recommend.
David Moravec was a QMJHL first year playing for Halifax. He played as a professional the two years prior to playing major junior in North America. Moravec was an important part of Halifax’s top 4. He scored 60-4-24-28 and had a 63.9% differential (Halifax team was 62.9%).
Peter Reynolds scored 43-17-27-44 and had a goal differential of 44.4% compared to his team total of 41.6%. Reynolds was pushed outside the top 6 last year on Saint John’s Memorial Cup team and this year he spent quite a bit of time on the injury list. It has been a trying couple of seasons for him. I think back to junior for next year for him is the best bet and hope that he has a season like Josh Lawrence or Alexandre Doucet.
Justin Gill was a top offensive player a strong team in Sherbrooke, scoring 68-44-49-93 with a 67% differential. His team differential was 67.2%. Gill’s breakout 19 y/o season will mean he definitely gets drafted this season. I’m mildly concerned that Gill’s spike didn’t come until 19 and he’s possibly been zoomed by his strong team. Like Reynolds, if a team drafts him, I’d hope he’s in junior for another year and not trying to slug it out in the pros (with a trip to the ECHL). He’s rumored to be heading out of town in a trade so he’ll be part of a contending team next year if all sticks to script.
Another top 19 y/o player in Sherbrooke was Milo Roelens who was 68-22-37-59 with a 68.9% differential. Roelens possesses imposing size at 6’6” and 205 lb. The massive size and the fact he can play centre is the impressive part on Roelens. He could be a guy a team looks at to fill a need…. If they are drafting that way other than looking purely at skill.
Victoriaville also has a pair of interesting 19 y/o players in their lineup. Maxime Pellerin was 68-40-46-86 with a 56.8% differential. Last season, Pellerin was close to a PPG game player at 18, scoring 65-29-31-60.
Also in Victoriaville, Tommy Cormier scored 63-40-45-85 was a 58.1% differential, compared to his team total of 57.5%. This was Cormier’s second full time QMJHL season after playing Jr. A the first half of his 18 y/o season.
Both of these guys have had two impressive offensive seasons playing in the Q at age 18 and 19.
Tomorrow, I’ll post Adam’s thoughts on 2004-born QMJHL kids. It’s a big league and tough to keep track of, Adam’s intel is exceptional and I thank him.
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT OILERS ROSTER
Someone mentioned running 97, 29, 93 and 71 up the middle, here’s what it might look like. If gives a push to Holloway and also gives Draisaitl a defensive conscience not named Nuge. Connor Brown, Klim Kostin, Ryan McLeod and the Nuge could jump into the top-six forwards if required. Comes in well under the cap, Foegele goes for a pick to Philly and Yamamoto is dealt to Chicago for another pick.
LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON
It’s Friday, and that’s when chaos rules 10-2 on TSN1260. Steve Lansky from BigMouthSports will talk about the SCF, the coverage and the future of golf. We’ll talk about Messi’s impact already on MLS and the Oilers search for a RH defenseman in light of the Severson deal. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. See you on the radio!
Bob Stauffer assigned Louie Debrusk some homework today after Louie spent a little bit of extra time complimenting Klim’s game and value to the team.
He’s to find comparables for Klim Kostin and assign values to 1,2 and 3 year contract offers.
I don’t really trust Louis to do his homework.
I like LT’s 1M above. Is that realistic? Or should we be budgeting more?
Are you saying Louie doesn’t have a tutor’s mentality?
Or Bob isn’t a teacher.
Regardless… Kim got a gold star in my book this year. Might be a good idea to make a bet on the man.
Yes bcs Klim is a wonderful teammate but hasn’t established anything as an NHL regular
You can’t pay for anything but the proven attributes you are looking for if you want to compete in a capped league. So many GMs give out contracts based on reg season or playoff heaters that hurt bad after, etc
We should hope the others do and we don’t
Bob brought it up. And I didn’t get the impression that the idea of a 2 or 3 year term came to him in the moment.
Last off-season, Trenin was awarded 2 X $1.7MM for 17G and 24P in 80 games.
This is very comparable to Kostin as it relates to per game.
Kostin may agree to something closer to $1MM but he does have a legit arbitration case for more.
That Trenin played 80 games and not 57 (with the difference not due to injury), played almost 15 minutes per games not 10 and killed penalties for 2 minutes a game compared to none would all be legitimate factors in an arbitration award for Trenin being higher than what Kostin might get. The Oilers can further mitigate the size of the award by selecting a one year deal, which should be less per year, all things being equal, than a 2 year award.
Yup, the PK time is a factor as long as its a statistic permitted to be taken in to account (although “overall contribution to team” can be so its likely included there in any event).
In any event, I thin he has a very good case for greater than $1MM in arbitration which is what the original question was in relation to.
Everyone is in love with deadline deals, but they bleed you if you can’t recoup picks. And the Oilers hopefully will start to recoup as they draft better and have better prospects and players pushing up.
Somehow with all the wheeling MacCrimmon is only missing a 2nd 4th and 5th this year but has two 3rds. The year after only missing a 3rd and a 4th. I don’t get too excited about picks after the 3rd as the odds are so low of finding a strong contributing roster player. Yse it happens but not often.
Looks like the Kniggits are dealing prospects as the team is fairly set, and keeping picks for some depth developing later.
How does a player Leon score 4 goals in a game and we lose? We are a better team than Vegas but Woody’s inability to match lines properly killed us. Woody’s stubbornness of playing a useless Yamo in the top 6 and a shell shocked rookie Skinner cost us a Cup.
A poor system and players that can’t execute especially in key moments. Possibly because of the system. Flashbacks of Eakin
Puck management and puck support are everything. The Oilers have a ways to go there. It’s the key to Vegas being so successful other than Cups. It’s what drove Tampa
Holland believes you need big, long, randy d-men in the playoffs but also thinks there is room for some “udders-sized puck movers”. Its can’t be all one way or the other:
https://theathletic.com/4596610/2023/06/09/golden-knights-defense-lebrun/?source=nhltw
…not that there’s anything wrong with that….
Big and long too. 🤓
What about the “udders-sized puck movers?”
Is OP back in vegas?
Or maybe retired from practicing law to work at the Sutter’s dairy farm?
Sutter would show the young fellow how to do (Manual) real work.
oh my…a 5 tool player.
Udders sized is really small 🙂
This conjures a mental image I will be sure to relate to my therapist. Just wrong on so many levels…
My brain bleeds just thinking about it. I thought hockey was a manly sport, or is that now toxic masculinity?
… I keed of course….
same goalies, same blue line; I’m not ok with that
“Running to Stand Still”….Bruce McCurdy
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/edmonton-oilers-running-to-stand-still-as-last-winters-solutions-become-this-summers-problems
I’m fine with it. Pretty content, actually.
Oilers defense to start 2021 Playoffs:
Nurse – Larsson
Kulikov – Barrie
Jones – Bear
Today’s iteration isn’t perfect, but it’s come a long way in a short while
Technically they start the year with a new impact defender in Ekholm. They can add at the deadline.
Broberg is the change agent you are looking for. He will be the change if he successfully fasttracks. if he fails, Ceci and Kulak should worry.
1) Campbell almost assured to be better than last season
2) Full season of Ekholm
3) Ceci with full groin health to start the year (presumably)
4) Popped Bouchard – reasonably likely to be able to provide an impact.
5) Broberg on upside
Depth is an issue.
Take it from one who knows…. groin health. The secret to a happy life. Especially if depth is NOT an issue…
Excuse while I wash my mind out with soap.
LT,
I can wrap my head around moving on from Yamo as our top six RW solution. He’s a bonafide NHL talent, but I acknowledge that his cap hit is the culprit. If Holland could move Kassian’s contract for a pick, I have confidence that he can move Yamo for a pick as well – I will root for Yamo where ever he ends up.
What I am curious about is why would we replace Yamo with a Jesper Fast, when we could likely retain Nick Bjugstad for something in the range of the $2.2 million you’re suggesting we sign Fast for, perhaps even a smidge less?
Bugstad changed the entire dynamic of our bottom six for the better, he was exceptional as our right handed face-off option and he historically provides very similar production, if not slightly superior offense to that of Jesper Fast. Bugstad’s ability to play center and wing, offers Jay a ton more flexibility than someone like Fast. Bugstad also demonstrated that he’s considerably more physical than Fast and appeared to be a good fit with the team and he’s built for “Big Boy Play-off Hockey”.
Why not start the year with Bugstad as your second line RW, while seeing how the department of youth – Hollaway, Lavoie and Kostin develop over the first half of the season. If the Oil aren’t satisfied with our top six RW situation by the second half of the season, you make a move at the trade deadline for someone like a Barbashev. Bugstad then could/should slide down to the bottom six, where we know he can be very effective and has proven that he can anchor the bottom half of the line-up.
I’d like to keep our powder dry with Foegle, he really came on the last third of the season, he’s proven to be an effective and physical role player who can move up and down the line-up. It looked like the “light went on” for him during the latter portion of the season, it would be very DoD Oiler-like to trade him for a pick and watch him take the next step in another city.
The question we should be asking and I hope that Holland is pondering, is who helps the Oilers more, a Jesper Fast or Nick Bjugstad? How much is it going to take to sign Nick Bugstad? Would two times $1.9 Million and a legit shot at a couple of Stanley Cups get it done?
I guess what I’m asking, in the parlance of our fine host, is why not have Bjugstad in the Dan Driessan role as we determine if Holloway or Lavoie can be Andres Galarraga?
Fast plays big minutes against elites and the puck is headed in a good direction. 30-21 goals vs elites over the last two seasons. I expect his offense will climb in Edmonton, too.
http://puckiq.com/players/8475855?player=8475855&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team
He does look solid and what the doctor ordered with solid evens play. Barbashev is more of a shooter which I think they need, and I’m not sure who Vegas will keep, but the fancies don’t look good even if he looks like a killer these playoffs. He’s a beneficiary of the crazy PDO pony they are riding.
One nitpick – the Oilers paid draft picks to get rid of the Kassian contract, they didn’t move the contract for a pick (which I agree is NOT out of the question with Yamo).
On Bjugstad, I did throw out that concept a few days ago (or maybe last week).
Truth be told, when thinking about “upgrading on Yamo” as 6F, if one said there is a mid-career, high pedigree, decent skating, 6’6 RSC/RW, who can penalty kill, is a reasonable 2-way player, good guy and going off 17 goals in a bottom 6 role that would be willing to sign for apx $2MM – would most not think that was too good to be true.
Trouble with keeping the powder Drai on Foegele is, I think, Yamo out on its own isn’t enough (likely) to bring back the three RFAs and sign Bjugstad for $2MM and fill out the roster cheaply.
I agree on Fast – I recall the verbal regarding Feogele’s great underlying numbers and how he was an option in the top 6 coming from Carolina. Everyone has great numbers on Carolina. Don’t get me wrong, I like the player but acquiring him for a 6F spot seems a bit aggressive – I don’t see him reinventing himself at 31 even though, yes, I’m sure he would post more box-cars on Leon’s wing.
Todd Nelson could make AHL history.
https://russianmachineneverbreaks.com/2023/06/08/how-a-second-calder-cup-championship-could-cement-todd-nelsons-legacy-as-one-of-the-greatest-coaches-in-ahl-history/
Nelson’s Hershey Bears were spanked 5-0 by Coachella last night.
For those keeping score at home, Brogan Rafferty notched two assists.
Any Norris votes yet?
Same number as Bouchard.
Come on now. YOU have the same amount of Norris votes also. Does not make YOU an equivalent D. Assume approximately 5-8 D in any year might get a Norris vote. That does not make the remainder all roughly equivalent.
We’ll see what crazy hijinx MacCrimmon gets up to, but CF says he has 3M plus in cap with a 1M bump. Hill alone takes that. Barabshev would look pretty good in the top 6
Of course Kenny would have to get up to crazy hijinx and that’s not going to happen. I feel the talk mentioned of the org being willing to look at bigger things is mostly to appease the owner and fans and there’s about a 1% chance of anything happening
For me the ‘06 to ‘08 DeeeTroit talk we heard is misguided. That we knocked them out was lucky like the Panthers have been this playoffs. Vegas too running historic PDO. Did that team have the weakness in key positions this team still has? Does that mean doing little will produce the same results? Nope
I for one am not going to underestimate Old Dutch with respect to the cap and roster dynamics.
Look at what he did offloading Kassian and acquiring Keith last off season. Then Ekholm this year.
I like the direction this team is going. I’m willing to give credit where it’s due, even if not every move has been inspired or perfect.
He’s made the team better for sure. I’m not comfortable with some players he seems comfortable with. Ceci is exactly the wrong partner for Nurse even if competent at lower levels. Also not comfortable with what he gives in his deals
We will see he may have a great summer. If he’s betting on young fellas he needs to make sure the coaches are on board with a plan. I think they have some that can help but they need to be played early so they are ready by playoffs or at least they know where they are really at
So we get Ekholm for 3 more seasons if he’s happy here and the injury bug doesn’t hit we could get 5-6 seasons out of him. I was really impressed with his Hockey IQ on offence especially the way he meshed with Connor in the O-Zone which very few have. He can also play P.P effectively which will take some points away from P.P guru Bouchard which may not be a bad thing.
I’m concerned about regression during the 3 years he’s signed for, let alone thinking of extending beyond.
Sure, he can play some PP2 and has done some of that in his career but he’s never been a plus PP guy (either personal scoring rates or team scoring rates).
The Vikings seem to take longer in the development phase yet they seem to age better in their 30’s especially Swede D-men. I have no stats to back this up maybe it’s because of Lindstrom flashing through my head when Swede D or mentioned. Karlsson peaked (shattered) at 33 years-old point wise why can’t Ekholm at 33 beat his career high of 44 points? Ekholm is finally playing with a offensive minded team and he has one hell of a hard accurate shot.
Not recent numbers but it appears Swedes don’t age better than others.
https://www.tsn.ca/yost-nhl-rosters-continue-to-trend-younger-1.1465718
You defended the 8 year albatross Severson signs earlier in this thread, then are quick to point out how Ekholm will decline over his next three years.
Cant have it both ways bruh.
I’ll take Ekholm for 3 more years at $6M any day.
Didn’t mention Ekholm at all.
The style Ekholm plays kinda like a Chris Chelios has me believing with the high octane offence we have he will best his career numbers the next 2 years.
Entirely possible.
Also worth noting for those hoping the Severson contract becomes an albatross, it is constructed in such a fashion to be bought out in the final two years.
This of course would be in a much enhanced cap environment so I’m pretty sure this not an accident.
The Finn GM beats to his own drum McConnell the owner must really like Jarmo. Jarmo had more than enough time to build a winner. When the Jackets smoked the heavy favourites Tampa a few years back apparently brought him a long leash
They’re always fighting the “no one wants to play in Columbus” mindset.
That attitude also infects the Jets.
Hard to overcome.
I didn’t say anything about him not being able to post offensive numbers this coming year – I was speaking the the suggestion that we should be re-signing him for his late 30s.
I’m all for bringing back Janmark and Ryan. But only on one year deals. Ryan particularly has to be no more than $1MM, and that’s not because I don’t value his contributions, but moreso due to his age, and role that ought to give way to the younger players as they gain traction. He’s a mentor, and insurance for injury and slumps.
Sometimes you can sign an older player to a lower AAV on a 2-year term.
Using Devin Shore’s latest deal as a comparable, Derek Ryan can sign for 1M this year and 800K next year for a 900K AAV. If his wheels fall off he can mentor in Bakersfield.
That’s precisely my line of thinking.
A cap hit that’s able to be buried is fine if the term exceeds a year. So I’d amend my above comment to include that nuance.
That would be a very poor contract for Ryan (from the Oilers viewpoint) as front loading it would make the 35 plus rules apply and his cap hit would stick if he retires or is assigned to the AHL, etc.
Ryan’s next contract will be a 35+ contract – the Oilers can sign him for league minimum as a base salary ($775k) and offer (attainable) performance bonuses that ‘top up’ the contract to make it more appealling (I think something in the $250k range is fair)
That keeps his cap hit down for this season, and if needed, bumps his performance bonuses to next season
If the Oilers have space this year (after the trade deadline acquisitions) the bonuses are paid in full and there is no carry over next year
Precisely. No need to break the bank to have a solid vet who’s good in the room and makes reliable plays. I like Ryan, but if he’s asking for a payday contract, he’s replaceable.
My thinking as well. Great opportunity to potentially move some of this years cap hit to next year per se.
Yes, 100% – exactly what I’ve been suggesting for a month now and exactly what the Bruins did with Bergeron and Kreji (although much bigger numbers).
Thank you for not buying Yamamoto out today, LT.
If I remember correctly, he popped to a point per game in that 2nd half as well, right?
That Benson/McLeod/Marody line was the best I can recall from a Condors (Barons, etc.) line. My concern was that I wasn’t sure how they would develop defensively as they were in the offensive zone shift after shift after shift.
The other guys can’t score if they don’t have the puck? Sounds like a good defence to me if they are that good at keeping it out of our end and in theirs. Possession hockey might be a good solution for this squad methinks, given the skillsets. Less reliance on the breakaway offence and more on frustrating the opponent with good possession and quick puck movement.
It was once said, if you spend all your time in the defensive zone thwarting sorties, it doesn’t make you a good defender.
He has an OK year but, for me, this was a case of not only a player not spiking in the 2nd half but fading through the year – not all that uncommon with rookies who have never dealt with the grind of a professional hockey season including the travel the strength/side of opponent, etc. Aggregate fatigue and injury impact was a story in his fade. Little doubt he’ll be working hard this off-season knowing he needs to get stronger, better conditioned, etc.
I said at the time, I did not like including Kesselring in the Bjugstad trade. Don’t get me wrong, I “got it”, win now and they needed the depth but, at the same time, I’ve been saying there is a player here for years, a player that has legit top 4 upside.
A credit to the scouts and development of this org – they drafted a player late, developed him for years and traded him for value to try and win the cup.
Kesselring looks like he’ll have an NHL career and I’ll be cheering for him going forward – the cost of trying to win.
Similar to Bourgault, I think the grind of the AHL season set in for Tulio. His spike was during the middle of the season where he was absolute fire for apx 3 weeks. I believe he ended the season pointless in over 10 games. He’ll get stronger and better conditioned this off-season, I’m sure.
I would feel more comfortable with him getting games than Cam Dineen
Bourgault’s scoring rates and outscoring rates are higher in the second half. That’s why we look at numbers, the eyes sometimes deceive. Bourgault did miss 10 games in the second half.
Yeah I was surprised to see that. His scoring actually improved despite the verbal, and those GF-GA numbers are eye popping.
A total guess, but I feel like Bourgault is likely to progress quickly and play meaningful games for the Oilers next season. I feel like most have written him off as spending another season in Bakersfield, but we will see.
I put Philp’s spike in the second half of the season right up there with Lavoie’s and I would posit that Philp’s impact on the ice in the 2nd half was close to that of the more talked about Lavoie.
You are indeed correct LT, this somewhat coincided with them switching him to centre and he ended up playing centre up and down the lineup and was impactful in all roles.
As far as the whispers about his future, I’ve been the one mentioning those on this site and it comes solely from one 30 second spot from Stauffer last week when he implied that his return isn’t a sure thing and it will be something to watch over the next month.
To be clear, Stauff indicated that 100% the organization wants him back. He also provided. cryptic mention to some personal traumatic event a few years back but gave nothing further on that. It would seem odd if the player chose to sign with Edmonton, had a solid year and is in the conversation for NHL ice, and then will not come back to the org (with no other NHL options given his RFA status).
I anxiously await this signing.
Noticed that he was #7 on DNBs ranking of Bakersfield prospect/call-ups too.
That seemed low based on the verbal here from those who watched (expect he could seriously challenge for a roster spot), but possibly related to the concerns Stauffer mentioned?
I did “speak” (i.e direct message) with DNB on this and, nope, he hasn’t heard anything bout the concerns Stauffer mentioned and his ranking of Philp was his personal opinion somewhat based on the fact he’s only played one season of pro hockey. Did say the org really wants him to focus on PK next season – think it’ll be a big part of his career
Cool, thanks for the info.
What happened in Bakersfield last year? They were okay out of the gate, but were awful for the second quarter of the season before having a decent second half of the season and sneaking into the playoffs?
What caused them plummet to the bottom of the standings, and what’d they change to bring them back to being a playoff team?
Shane Doan, as rumoured, has joined the TML in an advisory role.
Sir, this is an Oilers blog. If you’re going to update us on Shane Doan, you also need to tell us what Steve Kelly is doing.
He’s a police officer in Calgary.
This is very good.
I wonder why he’s not with the Coyotes? What’s the story he spent 20 years their was is the most decorated player in franchise history by a mile. Also his Son was drafted by them in the 2nd round 37th overall as well. Why would Halkirk finest take a job on the other side of the country??
..Probably wanted to go someplace where he didn’t have to worry about the cheques bouncing.
He’s very close with Matthews.
Money talks.
Carter Savoie’s second half featured rare goals and a stunning even-strength goal differential that I would suggest is borderline impossible. There’s too much talent here, it will shine through, but that was a tough statistical season. Among the toughest I’ve ever seen.
Savoie has become my latest “I’ll eat crow if he becomes anything more than an AHLer” candidate.
Longtime readers of this blog know too well that I can by now differentiate thigh from wing meat of that damn bird, having previously painted Skinner and Lavoie with this same brush.
What a horrible stat line. Let’s hope he was actually injured all year and tried, unsuccessfully, to play through it.
Severson wasn’t coming to Edmonton anyway. That’s a nice roster you’ve put together LT.
Here’s hoping Noah Philp will make the transition to the NHL as the Oilers fourth line center. That would free up Nuge to play in the top six where he belongs.
severson at 8×6.25 is wild.
nice player but he was definitely not playing top pair in jersey.
6.25M is second pairing money.
So what you’re saying is Nurse’s contract is in range for being a #1 D?
It’s in the range of being an elite #1D.
Doesn’t mean he is one.
That’s clearly your opinion, which everyone is entitled to.
I myself chose to learn about this subject from the stats shared by our gracious host and other valued commentators on this blog, time and time again, which clearly show he is #1D.
So you’re saying Severson at $6.25mil per year is second pairing money, but $3mil more declares you to not only a #1D man, but elite? That’s quite the jump for $3mil.
That’s a 50% jump.
Yes. From your statement, if you go the other way, $3.25mil would be okay for a bottom end third pairing D?
Generally, third pairing D are journeymen or players on ELCs.
Except that Severson was playing on the 3rd pairing in NJ. So CBJ just paid Ekholm money to a RHD that’s a tweener 2nd-3rd pairing d-man.
Ceci is a bargain.
Based on TOI he played second pairing minutes but what made him expendable in NJ was an abundance of right shot D.
Dougie Hamilton, John Marino with Simon Nemec on the way is a pretty formidable group.
It will be interesting to see how NJ handles the left side with Ryan Graves a UFA .
One would think Luke Hughes will quickly move up the batting order and compete with Seigenthaler for #1LD.
Helluva group.
The Oilers left side is #1 Nurse $9.25M, #2 Ekholm $6.25M, #3 Kulak $2.75M and that is about the top end of what you’d see in terms of a first, second, third pair defenseman who has played 400+ games and is being paid in line with their established ability.
Elite?
by comparison nurse and ceci play over 34% of his mins (nurse) and 37% (ceci) against elites.
The issue with the Puck IQ stats is they only tell you what happened and don’t address the issue of what a player could accomplish in a different role.
Severson dominated play in his 20 minutes of TOI.
FF 56.56%
SHF 57.56%
XGF 59.85%
HDGF 56.47%
And with that he was also a victim of mediocre goaltending with a PDO of only .984.
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/playerreport.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=all&stdoi=oi&rate=n&v=p&playerid=8476923
How much would your top dollar be for Nurse?
$8 million tops.
Elite right D, all UFA years, is over $10 million.
Makar and Heiskanen have 4 restricted years in their contracts.
Yes…I wonder if you can quantify the premium a RHD gets?
It ain’t nuthin’
Karlsson and Doughty are both all UFA years and elite #1D.
yet he only plays 24% of his time against elites.
he plays similar mins against elites to brett kulak and averages 33 points a season over the last 3 yrs!!!! Not sure anyone is giving kulak that kind of money.
It’s a massive overpay that is going to age badly quarter way into the deal, when he’s playing 3rd pairing minutes behind Jiricek and Boqvist.
Kekalainen is pushing his chips in like a novice at poker going on tilt. Most over-rated GM in the league, his teams have never won anything, despite over a decade of top draft picks.
https://twitter.com/ARHockeyStats/status/1667165906940592131?s=20
An Appeal to Authority fallacy looks even worse when you reference a bunch of twitter hacks.
If his offence is so good, how come he’s never put up more than 46 points in a season, despite getting prime PP minutes?
I really think we should sign Bouchard long-term this summer, if a poor-man’s Bouchard is getting 6.25 million on the open market.
Severson was the top UFA d-man and, as expected, he got a contract that is too much for too long.
Don’t get me wrong, he was probably the only UFA d-man that is a lock to be an upgrade on Ceci (neither Mayfield nor Dumba nor Klingberg are locks to be better) but its certainly not better value at near double the cap hit and certainly not for a term that takes him to 36/37 years old.
https://twitter.com/HockeyNewsHub/status/1667172704867307520?s=20
Berezkin signs a 2 year extension in the KHL.
If there is no out clause file this under disappointing news. He is one of my favourites and easily within the Oilers top 10 prospects for me.
There’s no agreement between the leagues, let alone an out clause. Painful.
Per Section 8.6(d) of the CBA, for players drafted from outside North America, the club holds the player’s rights through the fourth June 1 following their draft. He was drafted in 2020 so the Oilers hold the rights through June 1 2021, 2022, 2023 and 2024.
When we’ve been talking about Berezkin and Yeseyev over the last while I would always qualify my thoughts with not having any idea of if we’d ever see these guys – no idea of their desire to sign in North America and ever come over. This is indeed disappointing but I’m not all that surprised to be honest.
I thought rights for Russian players are typically retained until they’re 27 (NHL UFA age). Maybe because of the lack of agreement between the leagues?
Berezkin, Yevseyev and Denezkhin are all listed as ‘indefinite’ on CapFriendly.
https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/reserve-list/oilers
Because there is no deal with Russia on player’s rights the NHL team technically holds them forever unless they sign a contract. Then they are subject to the usual NHL rights regarding players. This is why the Oilers no longer have Konovalov’s rights.
Typically, the NHL and KHL respect each other’s contracts. Not because they have to but because things would get very complicated if they didn’t.