The Edmonton Oilers are getting better at trades. I’m not sure if it’s luck or Brad Holland, but the recent transactions have the look of an informed opinion along with the usual gut feel. Trades are just making bets, that’s all. However, it’s a key to success. Edmonton has been making the same style of trade (“I’ll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today”) since the Griffin Reinhart deal in 2015. Is there a deal “style” that works for this management team?
THE ATHLETIC!
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TRADE STYLES
Ken Holland dealt Ethan Bear (5.11, 197) for Warren Foegele (6.02, 198) back in 2021 in a deal of a RH defenseman for a left winger. From a position scarcity point of view, the deal favoured Carolina Hurricanes. However, in the two seasons that followed, Edmonton did well using Foegele in a support role. He isn’t an impact player, and his cap number could get him traded this summer, but there’s no real negative one can attach to player or transaction beyond the initial surrender of a player employed in a position that is rare.
The Brett Kulak deal was a good one. You’re going to hear about Lane Hutson (Montreal’s pick) for a decade or more, but Kulak has delivered since arrival and that’s why you make the deal. No quarrel with that transaction.
Derick Brassard didn’t work out, and ultimately Nick Bjugstad was unable to fill the role required (43 percent goal share five-on-five in the playoffs) but both centers were bona fide and the price wasn’t too dear.
The Zack Kassian trade needed to be made, and beyond correctly criticizing the initial contract, I don’t think one can look at the deal as being anything but a positive for a team trying to contend. The Jack Campbell trade next summer, should it come to that, will be far more expensive.
Klim Kostin for Dmitri Samorukov was a winner for sure. Even now, Samorukov would not be any closer to playing for Edmonton, while Kostin may replace Warren Foegele on next year’s roster and about one-third the price. A very good deal.
Mattias Ekholm was a game changer and the roster improved immediately. Long overdue, his slot in the lineup makes so much difference the cost (it was spendy) was justified.
So, what next? So far this offseason, Holland added a big center prospect (Jayden Grubbe) in a smaller level repeat of the Kostin trade. I look at the available talent in trade and would love to see Holland pursue Taylor Hall ($6 million), Tom Wilson ($5.16 million), Conor Garland ($4.95 million cap), Chris Tanev ($4.5 million) or Andrew Peeke ($2.75 million) on the roster, but how do you get it done?
No sir. I think the Kostin trade might be the template. Look for RFA’s who could be available, like Yegor Sharangovich, Morgan Geekie, Trent Frederic, Oliver Wahlstrom or Nathan Bastian. That’s where the value is in trade this summer. Pretty sure. That and finding opportunity for Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Raphael Lavoie will be key.
New for The Athletic: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
https://theathletic.com/4598166/2023/06/10/oilers-prospect-max-wanner-defence/
How about Colin White?
That went the series. Vegas prohibitive favourites to win, it has to be 4% or something pathetic that Florida runs the table.
Any chance Oilers can acquire a Gibson level(competent) goalie?? or does everyone watch the team flounder until Draisaitl leaves?
Why do they even hand out projectiles to fans at sporting events?
I know, learning is hard….
The respect Tkachuk gets from refs for being a D-bag in front of the net/against goaltenders is as mind boggling to me as why Perry was so respected by them for doing the same…
No sympathy for Pietrangelo, but of course that mother-tkachuker whacked and slashed at him close to a dozen times after the game with linesman between them.
He knows pietrangelo is a loose cannon he’s trying to bait him. This is big boy Hockey not like the World Championships. Out of all the sports the Stanley Cup is the hardest to win.
So Tkachuk was playing big boy hockey after the final whistle?
Looks more like a 5 year old throwing a tantrum to me.
When you lose without a whimper makes you a loser in my opinion. Pietrangelo deserves everything he gets after the viscous attack aka Lemieux on Turgeron
It’s not over until the fat lady sings.
I don’t apologize if this offends any of you youngsters.
It’s becoming like WWF Wrestling where the penalties are scripted. Vegas gets 1st P.P on a nothing play if it goes to O.T Vegas get’s a call if the Panthers are winning late Vegas gets a call.
It might be me but Oilers got jobbed by the refs.
Florida drum?
I think an Oil drum would be better.
No need for Tom Wilson if one has Holloway and Kostin (and Kane).
The need on RW is an complete winger, one who is bulletproof on defensively on battle and defending, because we discovered Hyman is far from bulletproof defensively.
One might have to wait for that, just like one had to wait for Ekholm.
i.e. One is looking for “Jere Lehtinen”.
David Perron’s contract end this coming year. So he may be available at the deadline.
Seems to be a good mix of Top 6 offense. Sound Defense. Won a Cup.
Wonder if he fits the bill?
Sure I like Perron as well – problem is cap – he’s making $4.75 million. So not now – but at the deadline when he costs 25% of that – oh yeah.
Could Holloway fill the role? Maybe Hyman can move down the line-up?
The latest Athletic trade board article from this morning (https://theathletic.com/4598100/2023/06/10/nhl-offseason-trade-board-jets-maple-leafs-flyers?source=user-shared-article) lists Brett Pesce as potentially available.
28 year old 6’3″, 30 point, RD, on a $4M and change contract for this season. Strikes me as a potentially strong fit for Edmonton. Of course the asset cost would be significant.
Sure Pesce is perfect the the 2RD but he would be costly this summer (in assets) and next summer in salary. Maybe they are interested in Ceci + Broberg for Pesce – maybe not – but this is a pretty damn solid defense:
Nurse Bouchard
Ekholm Pesce
Kulak Desharnais
Yes, based on his switching agents, it sure seems likely that he’s looking for a bigger payday than Edmonton will be able to offer next summer. So if they were making the deal, it would have to be at a price that they were comfortable with as a one year rental.
Certainly more likely that he goes to a team with the means to extend him.
On Nick Bjustad I think he was fine and a good trade for the Oilers. He scored a couple of big goals in the playoffs. Considering his cap was low he provided a lot to the team. Where he got in trouble was when he played up the lineup against top lines. I think this is more of an indictment of the top six which was getting crushed against Vegas. Had he stayed on the 3rd and 4th line I think his goal share might have been positive.
Vegas’s 3rd line can play against anybody. Arguably, Florida’s 3rd line can play against anybody.
As we saw in the Vegas series, if one is going to play McDavid and Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins the full two minutes on the power play, the OIlers 3rd and 4th line are going to face tough minute matchups after the power play.
Bjugstad might be a good regular season solution, but he might not be a good solution if you want to beat Vegas.
Bjugstad might be good enough if our wingers were bigger and better two way types.
Vegas is winning because they are getting Eichel and Marchessault clean air.
4th line too.
perhaps Woodcroft should consider running 2 Power Plays regularly. Run PP1 for 1 min to 1:10 … Give PP 2 a legitimate shot. Then maybe only 1 shift after the PP needs to be covered by the 3rd or 4th line …
I somewhat gloss over the conversation when its happens but hasn’t JP showed that the numbers do NOT reflect that getting scored on right after a PP ended due to match up was a problem?
Its interesting, we keep talking about the need to upgrade on Yamo at 6F (which I do agree with and he likely needs to go in any event) and we discuss options like Brown and Hast and Hathaway, etc.
At the same time, there is a mid-career, high pedigree, 6’6, good skating, decent two-way, right shot C/RW that just scored 17 goals in a middle six roll (without start players) that would likely sign for $2MM or less….
Don’t get me wrong, I’m no sold on Big Dick Bjugstad as the 6F but his resume reads like a near perfect fit, no?
First two games, McDraivid was together. Eichel matched up on Bjugstad and owned him. Barbashev owned Hyman.
Later Woodcroft used Draisaitl on Eichel, but gave him Yamamoto. Barbashev owned Yamamoto.
Nugent-Hopkins became ineffective because the other two positions were being owned by the Vegas in the 1st game, and Yamamoto was out of his depth in the latter part of the series.
Boggles the mind that Woodcroft did not go mano-a-mano with McDavid.
Woodguy’s point, generalized, was that Woodcroft was owned by Cassidy on Eichel.
Even if the Oilers forwards were not banged up, Vegas is so deep that they would likely always have at least one mismatch, but letting the mismatch be with Vegas’s most talented forwards, in retrospect, was clearly a poor decision.
Yes it was close, and the Oilers didn’t get the calls. But the OIlers’s forwards are looser defensively, which means when the teams are evenly matched the lower variance team usually prevails over the higher variance team. And clear mismatches lead to higher variance.
The teams are basically even at some level X, but the Oilers variance around X was/is larger than Vegas’s variance. All things being equal, the team with the lower variance gets the “luck” because scoring goals is hard, and the probability of goals against, left tail events is larger than the probability of right tail events, goals for. (i.e. which is the reason some say the game should be called goalie). McDraivid produced a ridiculous amount of right tail events, and the Oilers still lost. The “band” has got to be tighter.
I think cassidy had better dzone system in play than woodcroft was running.
Simpler on dmen just to collapse than the weird zone coverage thing that far too often lost guys in criss cross and had them open for chances.
I think the Vegas forwards intentionally skated the Oilers defensemen away from home plate. They knew the Oilers play man defense…so one forward, once they knew they had Nurse or Ceci, in particular, would just go skate out to the blueline or into the opposite corner or go for a skate around the back of the net. I think it was by design to break down the defense.
If a forward is going for a skate out to the blueline, I think the defenseman should let him go and the defense should reset.
No doubt Eichel killed his match-ups the above doesn’t have anything to do with the point I was responded to that you keep making: an issue with the PP minutes and the shift(s) thereafter.
This is my post from the other day that OP mentioned.
Only 2 Eichel line goals came after power plays (both 2nd shift after the PP), and only one of those involved Bjugstad.
Nuge-Bjugstad-Hyman were only on the ice for 1 Eichel line goal against in the series.
Bjugstad was not on the ice for an Eichel line goal against until game 3.
Yamamoto on the ice against Eichel is like Vegas having a power play.
Yamamoto has been owned for four years in a row in the playoffs.
Yes, Yamamoto is your new Kassian.
His lack of defensive ability is why 3 of the 4 Eichel line goals that found net with him on were scored by Marchassault on the opposite side of the ice.
The only 1 that did come from his side of the ice was the point shot by Hague. Yamamoto tipped the point pass across, but Hague collected the puck on the boards at the point and sniped it in from 75 feet uncontested.
And I didn’t even mention Yamamoto in my post. Lordy.
Look at Vegas they have sleazy veterans you can’t have a child in the top 6 Woody should of been fired!!! Yamamoto should not of seen the ice except for 4th and PK. There’s a reason we lost to Vegas we may only have 1 year of Leon and we’re pissing him away playing Yamamoto and Kahun of the league with him.
Drai’s most common line mates this season were Hyman and McDavid – he played about 1/3 of his 5 on 5 minutes with Yamo (and about 1/4 of his overall time with Yamo).
Not to mention, the Oilers scored goals at basically the same rate with Leon/Yamo together than with Leon without Yamo and, in fact, if you remove Connor from the equation the Oilers scored more with Leon/Yamo together than Leon without Yamo.
Yamo was not good in the playoffs.
To suggest that one of the most successful coaches in history (yes, its early, but his P% is what it is) should be fired is really kind of silly, no?
2023 Yams 5-11. 31% GF
2022 Yams 8-12. 40% GF
2021 Yams 0-1 0% GF
2020 Yams 3-5 37.5%
total Yams 16-29. 35.5%
I think Godot makes a fair point about Yamamoto’s playoff track record.
That’s certainly not the player you want matched against the other team’s best line.
Yes, Yamamoto and his linemates have had a rough go of it in the playoffs.
His linemates by 5v5 TOI the last 3 playoff seasons:
(3 years since it’s infinitely easier than 4, and for the sake of only 4 games)
Draisaitl 208 min
Nuge 139
Kane 116
McDavid 102
Those players goals for/against without McDavid:
Yamamoto 9-18 33%
Draisaitl 8-16 33%
Nuge 12-17 41%
Kane 5-11 31%
Yamamoto’s next most common linemates (Hyman and McLeod, both ~60 minutes) did at least have GF%’s in the 40s without McDavid.
So the question is, do you think Yamamoto is the root cause of those poor on ice results for Draisaitl, Nuge and Kane?
Godot has fixated on Yamamoto being the cause, as he did with Kassian before. You also seem to be tilting in that direction.
I’d be more inclined to say that they weren’t good enough as lines to get the job done. Though it certainly is easier in a lot of ways to demonize one individual and then send them on their way.
I think what you’re missing is that Fast is not expensive, scores well and would like score better with 97 or 29, and is more durable.
If you sign Brown to an incentive-laden deal, you might be able to get both.
Fast has size, and the last two seasons, huge minutes versus elites and great results. Put him with 97 and 29, good things happen. I know you disagree, but Fast has a nice resume.
http://puckiq.com/players/8475855?player=8475855&season=all&tier=Elite&group_by=player_season_team
Brown, Bjugstad and Yamamoto all have injury issues in one area or another.
6.06 is great all things equal. I don’t believe they are.
Is it likely Carolina lets Fast get away?
Apparently Brind Amour loves him and Carolina is awash in cap space…$24 million.
From looking at it, it would be no brainer for them to re-sign him with a raise.
https://theathletic.com/4552857/2023/05/25/carolina-hurricanes-offseason-contracts/?source=user_shared_article
It’s absolutely possible he re-signs, but I would pursue him.
I like Fast but I’m not sure I agree that he “scores well” given he’s been a max 30 point guy. Of course, yes, he would very likely score better with McDavid or Drai but so would the likes of Bjugstad and Foegele, etc., no.
I do like the player, as you note, he plays tough minutes and plays well – I would be happy to have him on the Oilers in the role he’s had success on through the last few years. Asking him to do more as he gets in to his 30s seems aggressive to me.
In 80 games last season, Fast scored 10-15-25 at five-on-five. His most common linemates were Jordan Staal (883 mins) and Jordan Martinook (807 minutes). Give him 400 minutes with 97 or 29 and let’s see if he can pass Yamamoto (3-7-10 in 346 mins with Leon).
Edmonton can’t afford DeBrincat, and Leon’s five-on-five goal share away from 97 was the weakest among ALL centers on the team. Fast is a good fit.
The trade market for skilled forwards appears to be VERY active:
DeBrincat, Scheifele, Dubois, Konecny, Schmaltz, Keller, Hall, Boeser, Garland, Arvidsson, Purple Hayes, Nylander, Wilson.
Teams with cap space are going to be able to add at FW without giving up much.
Market for D is tight. Orlov and Graves are going to get minted as UFA’s.
Hallebuyck, Hart, and Gibson are gold-, silver-, and bronze-options in goal.
Should be a fun summer!
I agree with this take although note that there is a vocal sect that continues to pine for Ethan Bear and believe he would be a difference maker in the Oilers top 4 (i.e. upgrade on Ceci, etc.).
Value was given up in this trade at the time and I personally think it has worked out well (although there is a position on the other side that keeping Bear and not signing Ceci would have been better).
FWIW Bear made Seravalli’s list of RFAs who might not be qualified ($2.2M) this summer.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/mackenzie-blackwood-jesse-puljujarvi-among-rfas-who-might-not-receive-qualifying-offers-this-offseason
A complicating factor is that Bear suffered a shoulder injury at the World Championships and likely requires surgery.
Bear is a great kid and a nice story, but he was dumped by Carolina after only 58 games for almost nothing (5th round pick). Does anyone reasonable really think that Bear could have successfully played the minutes Ceci carried over the last 2 years? No value was given up – except perhaps sentimental – we won that trade in a walk.
Oilers need a 2RD and he’s already on the roster – his name is Ceci – just play him in the appropriate slot and let Bouch plays with Nurse. Adjust at the deadline if necessary.
Yes, as much as I like Ethan Bear and his story, we did win that trade. However, Holland then turned around and overpaid Foegele a tad with the 3 × $2.75 million contract.
In the playoff against Winnipeg Bear got exposed badly and that viewing was enough to say Adios.
The reason he was exposed was because Nurse couldn’t make outlet passes. The Jets forecheck could cheat to Bear’s side.
Nurse spent 90 minutes of that series playing 5 on 5 with Barrie and as a pair they played very well. He also spent 30 minutes of the series with Bear and the Jets scored 1 goal on the Oilers in that series against them. Bear also spent 30 minutes in that series (most of the rest
of his 5 on 5 TOI) with Koekkoek giving up 2 goals to the Jets. Overall at 5 on 5, Nurse and a goal share of 67% and an expected goal share of 60% in that series Bear was 0GF and 3 GA.
You could make the argument that Hollland would have done better just to give Bear away for free since the Foegele contract had negative trade value.
Wilson is a beast. But 2 of the last 3 years has been injured lots .
Konecny is a little ball of hate that is great. Prefer him. Get Mayfield on D. But if Wilson is available and could stay healthy a line of Kane, Drai and a Wilson would be scary and adding Mayfield this team would be scary tough and bigger
Hell chick in PERRY as a cheap 4 th line Arse as well if you want. Playoff beast , albeit not sure when his body gives out
I like Mayfield but I liked him alot more on his recent value deal and like him alot less on a UFA term deal that likely starts with a “4” (if not a “5”). I’m not sure he’s an upgrade on Ceci and will be signed for more money and for longer. Replacing Ceci would be asking him to do more in a different structure and I don’t think that would be an upgrade in value for cap hit.
Yes, Tom Wilson would be a great addition but its tough to find a realistic way to fit that cap hit in and, while he’s still only 29, coming off a major injury – I think its too much of a risk.
Sure, if the Caps retained like 40%, which they might, but that would make the acquisition cost prohibitive I would think.
Agree if you can work it somehow. Add Wilson to the top 6 and the Oilers become a very unpleasant team to play against with a mixture of skill and utter nastiness.
Kane McDavid Hyman
RNH Drai Wilson
McLeod Bjugstad Ryan
Holloway (UFA/trade/7D) Kostin