Before the 2016 draft, I ranked the top 150 players. Edmonton drafted a pile of them. Music! Well, no. As it turned out, the Oilers drafting in 2016 was a wild disappointment. What happened?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers fan survey results: Belief remains in team’s Stanley Cup window
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
LT 2016 LIST AND OILERS PICKS
I had Jesse Puljujarvi at No. 3, Tyler Benson at No. 34, Filip Berglund at No. 61, Markus Niemelainen at No. 108, Aapeli Rasanen at No. 112, Matthew Cairns at No. 145. One of the players Edmonton drafted, Vincent Desharnais, is in the NHL now and appears to have a future. Yet, it was a wildly disappointing draft. Here’s the state of the group.
Jesse Puljujarvi put two good seasons together after coming back from Finland, but this past season he was not able to deliver as expected. Combining 2020-21 and 2021-22, he scored 1.58 pts-60 (No. 6 among forwards with 500+ minutes) at five-on-five, and enjoyed a 58.5 percent goal share in the discipline. In 2022-23, he fell to 1.18 pts-60 and a 42 percent goal share. His expected goal share remained high (54 percent) but I’m not sure he’ll get a full shot at an NHL job next season. You know who could use him? Edmonton. That was first noted (that I saw) by speeds on twitter.
Tyler Benson can’t return. It would be loitering. I had him as an early second-round pick, but had DeBrincat No. 15 and Carter Hart No. 20 overall. He remains a good passer and can help outscore at the AHL level (161-131, 55 percent), but the Oilers have miles and miles of left wingers who are better. I think he might land in Europe but who knows.
Markus Niemelainen has played in 43 NHL gaames over the last two seasons, posting a goal share of 16-19. He has been passed by Philip Broberg and may (like Dmitri Samorukov) be traded before the start of the 2023-24 regular season. I think he’s a first recall option if he stays, don’t see him making the team unless there’s an injury.
Matthew Cairns has posted two solid ECHL seasons in a row and played in nine AHL games. Like Travis Ewanyk and Mitchell Moroz earlier in the decade, he was drafted out of order. During the Peter Chiarelli years, there were several defensemen (Caleb Jones, John Marino, Mike Kesselring) from the USHL or other college feeder leagues chosen. I believe, have no proof, it was a Chiarelli wrinkle. Cairns was drafted out of Canadian tier 2, I don’t think it was Chiarelli but I’ve always been curious about this pick. The third round was not compelling (Adam Fox the only star) in 2016, but the Oilers went to a feeder league damned early and also chose three blue in the third round. I’ll never get an answer but would love to know the process.
Filip Berglund was a fine prospect and I do believe he could still have an NHL career. There are rumours of Vancouver’s interest in him, and we’ll see in the coming days if it’s true. Berglund’s lone AHL season saw him post just six assists in 53 games. His even strength on-ice goal differential (31-28, 53 percent) was solid, the team was 140-124 (also 53 percent) with him off the ice. That’s average, and average isn’t terrible. I wish they’d kept him.
Dylan Wells didn’t have fabulous draft day numbers (27, 4.59 .871) but you hope the organization saw something in him and liked something beyond the fact he was 6.02. Wells didn’t have the career trajectory hoped for but did get into one NHL game (Chicago) and boasts a career SP of .923 in the world’s best league.
Graham McPhee was unusual on draft day 2016 because “strong skater” was part of his scouting report. Benson and Cairns both had skating issues, but McPhee’s problem was goal scoring. In 77 career AHL games, he has six goals.
Aapeli Rasanen was a solid prospect for the 2016 draft (I had him in the fourth round) and he has carved out an impressive career back home in the Liiga. He turned 25 about two weeks ago, and it’s not too late to try for the NHL. I think he’d be a strong candidate.
Vincent Desharnais took the slowest boat to the NHL in human history. Much about his rise borders on the impossible. Born in Laval, he played for the Chilliwack Chiefs of the BCHL age 18. Part of me believes Stu MacGregor must have seen him, liked him, and opened up a scouting file on the big man. His draft day scouting report mentions “wingspan” “lack of speed” and “not physical” and I’d say he still has the wingspan, has improved the skating and is a very physical player. He has long since exceeded any expectation, making him the ultimate outlier from a wayward Oilers draft summer.
WHAT’S THE PROBLEM?
The problem was twofold. First: foot speed. Even Puljujarvi, a dynamic skater at the World Juniors and in the early years, seemed to loose a few MPH after the hip issues. Benson, Cairns, Berglund, Rasanen and Desharnais all had speed issues based on their scouting reports. “Good speed” was mentioned in Markus Niemelainen’s report, and Graham McPhee was credited with being a plus skater.
Second issue: Scoring. Here are the NHLE’s (using the Vollman equivalencies from the era) from their draft years.
- Jesse Puljujarvi: 10-11-21 (he averages 13-15-28 per 82 NHL games)
- Tyler Benson: 7-16-23 (he is 1-2-3 in 38 NHL games)
- Markus Niemelainen: 0-11-11 (he is 0-1-1 in NHL 43 games)
- Matthew Cairns: 1-2-3*
- Filip Berglund: 0-9-9*
- Graham McPhee: 2-6-8*
- Aapeli Rasanen: 4-11-15*
- Vincent Desharnais: 0-3-3 (he is 0-5-5 in 36 games)
There’s not enough offense in this group. It also runs counter to Edmonton’s drafting from 2010 through 2022. The club has been drafting players who can deliver offense. Here are some assorted NHLE’s over the past baker’s dozen seasons.
- Connor McDavid 25-42-67
- Taylor Hall 17-29-46
- Nail Yakupov 18-22-40
- Leon Draisaitl 15-25-40
- Kailer Yamamoto 16-22-38
- Ryan Nugent Hopkins 11-27-38
- Xavier Bourgault 16-16-32
- Raphael Lavoie 12-15-27
- Ryan McLeod 10-17-27
- Tyler Benson 7-16-23
- Reid Schaefer 12-10-22
- Jesse Puljujarvi 10-11-21
- Tobias Rieder 9-11-20
- Dylan Holloway 6-7-13
Offense is the answer at the draft (goalies aside), as even future NHL checkers score well in their feeder leagues. I’m not sure about Dylan Holloway’s offense but do know college freshman don’t play much and if you doubled his NHLE he would be in the range of reasonable. His AHL career numbers deliver an NHLE of 82, 13-15-28, putting him in the same range as Lavoie and McLeod above.
Puljujarvi’s NHLE was known to me. I also knew he played 15:04 per game, owned a shooting percentage of 7.4 and scored over half of his goals on the power play. His teammate, Sebastian Aho, scored a point per game for the same team (he was a year older). Bottom line: Math was telling us. As usual.
You may ask why Xavier Bourgault didn’t dominate the AHL with a strong draft year NHLE (32 points). Well, he played in the pandemic season and that was a factor for sure. Having said that, his NHLE in the year before his draft (26) suggests he is going to be a productive scorer.
New for The Athletic: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
https://theathletic.com/4601071/2023/06/12/lowetide-what-are-oilers-best-nhl-draft-bets-for-2023-second-round-pick/
Jones. Mcadoo. Cornelius.
3 blind mice.
A heroic goal-line stand and the Riders grab victory from the jaws of defeat. Truly the play of the day.
3 tries, 3 failures…. why not a qwik toss into a gigantic endzone… because they keep doing what isn’t working. Too stupid.
They are cursed and we all know why.
The VGK story is interesting.
A sceptic could argue another American team in a low tax state… in a city on no one’s no-trade list, with the usual cap circumvention antics.
Mark Stone’s miraculous return to health at the exact moment his cap hit is a non-issue is hilariously convenient.
Then in the playoffs the team has an improbable run of goaltending with Adin Hill… which may not have happened had Broissoit not got injured. I certainly would have liked our chances better against Broissoit.
The Knights have also had a good run of luck in terms of health these playoffs.
Still, the NHL is a copy cat league.
Big defensemen… A rested goalie…
The VGK were criticised for their ruthless trade history when they missed the playoffs with injury.
Still a lot of value players acquired for picks.
Kolesar was acquired for a second round pick.
Brett Howden for a 4rth round pick.
Adin Hill acquired for a 4rth rounder.
edit–> Chandler Stephenson was acquired for a 5th round pick.
Amadio was a nice waiver claim for RW.
It’s nice to shop other team’s emerging talent rather than just free agency. I kinda feel like someone’s been talkin about doing that for a few years here.
Their depth is ridiculous.
Last night, their third pairing was on for 2 goals for and none against.
Also of note, Pietrangelo has averaged the most TOI/game at 23:33…Hague the least at 18:29.
Yeah, they certainly trust their bottom pairing. Whitecloud was an undrafted free agent signing. Hague was a second round pick.
I’m wondering if Connor Ingram could be the next Adin Hill?
When circumventing the cap, depth comes to you.
Rested Goalie what a coincidence we had one with way more pedigree than Adin Hill. Woody played it safe he didn’t have the balls to put in Campbell.
Bowden, Hill, Stephenson, Kolesar, and Amadio for two fourths, a second and a fifth. That’s some first rate shopping.
Nick Taylor drains a 72 foot putt on the 4th playoff hole to beat Tommy Fleetwood to win the Canadian Open. This has to be one of the top 5 greatest moments in Canadian sports history. The fans went absolutely berserk what a putt just unbelievable!!!
Hundreds of people charged the green after the dream putt by Nick. Security tackled Adam Hadwin they didn’t know who he was. Watch the footage it was a NFL tackle I hope Adam is alright.
This might go down as the 2nd greatest moment in Canadian Sports trailing only the 1972 summit series.
What. A. Putt. Amazing!
I got caught in the moment the O.T Goal in the Olympics was #2 anyway this Putt by Nick to win our National title that hasn’t been won in 69 years by a Canadian was unbelievable and ranks in the top 5.
Lots of online chatter about the Oilers and Flyers discussing a deal for Travis Konecy.
Leavins also mentioned this.
26 years old, 31 goals on a putrid team last season…2 seasons left at $5.5M
I would think Yamamoto, a D and the 2024 1st round pick would be a starting point for discussions.
Holland loves trading picks my favourite was 1.5 games of Mike Green for a 4th round pick.
What would Vegas do?
If the Oilers are in win now mode, acquiring Konecy should be a no brainer.
Not only would he flirt with 40 goals playing with Leon, but he is also a little ball of hate.
McCrimmon would find a way to make it work and Philly is an ideal place to shop since they are so focused on shedding salary and acquiring futures.
My favourite was 13 games of Happy to see you for two second round picks.
A.A has talent but he’s one those players that is on his own island.,
draft is a crapshoot and chia was just plain crap
What would be the implication of Kane starting the year on LTIR? What happens?
P. Kane?
There’s lots of details about off-season vs. in-season LTIR.
Basically though, the Oilers could put his $2M salary towards other roster players until he’s healthy, but they wouldn’t be able to accrue salary as long as they’re using LTIR.
(which I guess is expected to be somewhere between October and December).
Actually I was wondering about Evander.
Are you predicting an off-season injury?
No. I recall there being a report that he’d injured his hand again during the playoffs. Moreover I think he rushed it coming back in the first place.
He broke a finger in the playoffs….. not sure there was a pre-existing hand injury….
In any event, even if he was legit injured for a period of time, this would not really help anything as they’d need to ensure the cap space was there when they did activate him unless, the “plan” is to have him play zero regular season games.
In fact, this would hurt the Oilers if they are over the cap in LTIR as they would not be accruing any cap space during that period of time.
Thanks.
What, why?
“I could trade the pick” -Chiarelli in May, 2016 when asked about how he was going to be upgrading a team that has failed to make the playoffs for a decade.
But Puljujarvi’s size and skating was too tantalizing. He was a ready-built replacement for Taylor Hall, while Hall’s Austin contract could be spent on Lucic, and Hall traded for Adam Larsson.
The alternative was to keep Hall, forego signing Lucic, and trade the pick for top-pair defenseman Ryan McDonagh.
There’s something about 20/20 hindsight …
I think plan A was trade for Dougie Hamilton. Boston didn’t want to do business with Chiarelli is how I remember it.
I believe Jason Demers signing and keeping Hall was the idea on this blog, perhaps curated from LT in Summer of 2016.
PC’s gamble was equal to going to a casino, only hitting the slots, and confidently thinking you’ll leave with more money in your bank account.
Curtis Stock had that story.
Pieterangelo has to be done for the playoffs (and beginning of next season), right?
Section 70.4 is clear that leaving the penalty box at the expiration of a penalty and joining an altercation is an automatic 10-game suspension. The exception is if the opposition was deemed to be the instigator of the altercation.
Pieterangelo left the penalty box and, while it wasn’t much, he intentionally joined the fracas and put his arms around a Panther from behind – it wasn’t much but it happened – Tkachuk then came and tied Pieterangelo up but he did NOT instigate it, Pieterangelo joined on his own volition.
If it was Nurse it would be 10 games Parros hates the Oilers going back to his playing days when the Oilers used to tease him about being a goon and not being able to skate at AHL level.
A complicating factor is that the game was over.
Was he supposed to stay in the penalty box until hostilities ceased ?
Yes?? Very obviously and clearly, yes??
Stay in the box or exit, either way, the rule is pretty clear one cannot join an altercation…..
If it was Nurse Ron MacLean would be Squealing like a little piggy about the rule book and how Nurse broke the rules.
But Pietrangelo is a Las Vegas Golden child. Plus the game was over, so it’s murky. Parros is Parros.
When the GK close out the Panthers, Bettman and the owners will be looking for more expansion cash.
They already are.
Salt Lake City, Kansas City, Houston and Atlanta (again) are already being floated.
The opposition was clearly the instigator and they got penalized for it.
Any reasonable individual would agree with the officiating crew and league office that Bennett, Montour and Tkachuk were the instigators. And they were penalized for it.
All Pietrangelo did was tie up another player as his team was outmanned in the various confrontations already underway and did NOT instigate anything. Tkachuk followed that up with a spear, an attempted garrotting and several slashes.
The video evidence is very clear.
https://twitter.com/PuckedInTheHead/status/1668003932826931200?s=20
To your original question “Was he supposed to stay in the penalty box until hostilities ceased ?”
Yes, 1000% that is exactly what he is supposed to do.
For sure there is a ton of grey area in this instance though, and the chances of Pietrangelo getting a 10 game suspension from this are exactly 0%.
Can you point me to the rule that says a player must remain in the penalty bid after the game has ended?
*box*
Stay in the box or leave the box and, you know, not join an on-going altercation – those were the choices.
The rule expressly states that a player that leaves the box due his penalty expiring after a stoppage of play will be subject to a 10-game suspension if he gets involved in an altercation. 100% Pieterangelo did this – no blurred lines – its as clear as can be.
The exception to the suspension is if the opponent is the instigator of the altercation.
No-one instigator Pietergangelo’s participation – he intentionally and deliberately got himself involved by grabbing a Panther from behind – without personal provocation.
Very clear and obvious that Pieterangelo left the penalty box and joined the altercation with no instigation by any Panther. He skated in and deliberately grabbed a Panther from behind – with no provocation from anyone. It wasn’t much but there is zero way to honestly argue that he did not join the fracas without any prior instigation.
LT, I know Puljujarvi was the overwhelming consensus at #3, but I’m curious why a math guy like you also had him at #3 given his relatively low NHLE?
Yakupov was ruined by Eakins. And MacT didn’t intervene. And Puljujarvi by Chiarelli forcing Puljujarvi on McLellan who didn’t want him. Puljujarvi wanted to stay in Europe. Chiarellit had to bribe him over.
Neither could recover from the few disasterous development years in their first organization.
For critical prospects, the GM, the coach, the player, and the agent all have to be aligned.
When the Ref pulled down Yak while he was playing so well was as brutal a injury as I’ve ever seen.
It was the same for Laine, I think his NHLE was 25 or 26. I learned to run the Euro leagues a little higher, iirc Timo Meier was rated too low on my list and I learned from it, or tried, in the seasons that followed.
Thanks.
Janmark and Puljujarvi would be two thirds of a pretty good 2 way/ shutdown line. The Oilers need a line beyond Drai and McD that can play decent to elite lines and break even or better
Staples has been talking about an “old school checking line”.
I would note that the combo of McLeod and Foegele played about 56 minutes vs. elites last season and were 3-0 goals……. and, via LT’s favourite metric, +2.30 relative dangerous Fenwick!
Presuming Jesse remains committed to working for an NHL career, I do think he’ll get another opportunity next season. I have no idea where but I think he’ll end up with a $900K contract somewhere – Chicago, Columbus seem like viable options to me.
————
Benson a group VI UFA and I can’t imagine he as any desire to re-sign in the Oilers org (or if the Oilers have any real desire to bring him back). He didn’t have a good season in the AHL – its like the dynamic play maker he was a few years ago is completely gone – he tried to re-invent his game for the NHL, to be a bit more of a grittier pest and, when he was in the AHL, he continues that “style” of play and was no longer a dynamic offensive player at the AHL level. I could see him getting a 2-way deal somewhere but perhaps just an AHL deal?
————
I think Niemo stays in the org – the NHL depth has been depleted on the back end and he’s needed for cover. He’s fine as the organizational 8D that can play a few games here or there, in my opinion. As of right now, the top call-up options are: Niemo, Kemp, Dineen – that’s, well, thin, and I don’t see value in depleting it by moving Niemo out.
A team might take a chance on a 1 year show me contract with Jesse. Jesse and his agent surely won’t be making all kinds of demands with his playing time and where he plays in the batting order.
Benson had a good training camp last year and had a shot at starting the season with the big club until he got injured. I wonder if that demoralized him and skewered his AHL season.
Puljujarvi is an NHL quality player. He got lost last year but if he does want to continue on the NHL path it’s likely some team is going to get a solid depth player at a very reasonable cap number.
Benson, I assume (as V. Oil says) he was demoralized by his failure to gain any NHL traction last season. I expect he’ll rebound next to being an impact player at the AHL level, and perhaps he’ll get another shot at NHL games.
2 points in 17 games with a Finn laden team and having the opportunity of playing with star player Aho did not help his cause. Maybe Jarmo in Columbus will give him a go and get the confidence back that Jesse has lost in himself. Could Laine get Jesse going playing on the same line this might unlock Jesse.
Judging by his interviews:
If puj can’t fully grasp English, over just nodding while half understanding anything said to him, he’s always going to look a little lost out there.
Puljujarvi was a very solid NHL player (if wanting as a top 6 forward) for 2 seasons before the wheels fell off last year.
His boxcars those 2 years were (per 82 games) 21-21-42 +25.
Having just turned 25, there’s every reason to believe he can return to being a useful NHL player, though I certainly don’t expect to see it happen as an Oiler.
Brian Rafalski says hi. The yin to Desharnais’s yang, perhaps.
And Derek Ryan too, of course.
It remains insane to me that NHL teams continue to make million-dollar gambles based on vague reports like this because nobody thinks to have the kids bring their skates to the draft combine.
We get all kinds of hard data on pull-ups and jumping, but nothing at all on if they can skate or shoot.
It’s madness.
It’s on brand for the NHL. One of the most poorly run leagues in all of sports.