This is Oscar Klefbom, with Travis Ewanyk and David Musil also in photo. It’s not a tried and true rule, but it does seem to me that if you pluck three names from any given draft, one will fly far higher than the other two. That guy, as is the case here, is usually the first-round pick. Scouts take a lot of crap from fans, but they’re good at what they do. Normally when a pipeline dries up, it’s because the scouts aren’t getting enough draft picks to keep funneling talent to the pro level.
Connor Brown was a great get, but Lane Pederson and others are worthy of your attention. From the people who brought you Klim Koston, and Jayde Grubbe, here are some astute free agent signings from this weekend. https://t.co/twF9ZcmF51
DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
CONDORS SUMMER Q&A
I see another failed first-round pick was sent away.Kailer Yamamoto isn’t a failed first-round pick. He has enjoyed a solid career for a No. 22 overall selection. The cap bit him. He ranks No. 11 in GP and No. 12 in total points from his draft year.
He fell off as a scorer and an outscorer. Actually he didn’t, his 2022-23 scoring (1.53 pts-60) and outscoring (57 percent) were improvements. He didn’t score well with Connor McDavid (.83 in 216 minutes) and the visual was even more stark. Meanwhile he was jamming good with Drai and Nuggy, scoring 1.73 pts-60 in 376 minutes with 29.
That isn’t great with Draisaitl.The line outscored like demons, 59 percent. The number that caught him was $3.1 million. He landed in a great spot with the Seattle Kraken, and if healthy, he’ll recover his career in short order.
I see your other favourite, Puljujarvi, crashed and burned. He was hurt, had hip surgeries after the season and now his health is officially a worry. I hope he makes a strong comeback.
Ever notice the players you trumpet fail miserably? Sad really. There is some truth to it, going back to Jani Rita and Marc Pouliot.
Who do you like on the current Condors roster to play 100 NHL games? Among the men who have not yet played an NHL game, I like Xavier Bourgault and Raphael Lavoie.
That’s it? Well, there aren’t that many candidates. Among the AHL rookies last season, Noah Philp retired, Carter Savoie was injured a lot and Tyler Tullio has a nice range but no dominant skill. So, even though I think he’ll play in the NHL, don’t know about 100 NHL games.
The Oilers aren’t good at developing talent. Actually, since moving to Bakersfield the pipeline has been strong.
Name 10 players who spent time in Bakersfield and then emerged as NHL players (100 NHL games). Among players judged to be rookies by the AHL (so excluding Leon Draisaitl and similar), and who played 25 games or more in an AHL season (excluding Darnell Nurse and similar) the total is 8. They are: Anton Slepyshev, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner (it’s 50 games for goalies), Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod.
Is that good? Yeah, I think Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson did a fantastic job in Bakersfield. I wish they would have had more than four games with JP.
Are the Oilers producing two good rookies a year during the McDavid era? That’s a great question. Since 2015, and excluding players who don’t qualify because of age and other reasons, the number is 18. They are: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse, Brandon Davidson, Iiro Pakarinen, Jordan Oesterle, Anders Nilsson, Jujhar Khaira, Laurent Brossoit, Anton Slepyshev, Drake Caggiula, Matt Benning, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear, Kailer Yamamoto, Caleb Jones, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner.
18 in eight years, that’s good! Well, the Oilers were still drafting pretty high in many of those years. I think the draft and development model is better now, I’m fully onboard. There are those who have concerns.
And they are? People have said, and I have claimed, Tyler Wright is drafting shy offensive players in the first round. His selections so far (Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault, Reid Schaefer) are all great athletes and safe picks, but I think we’re looking at middle-six forwards instead of top-six F’s. Funnily enough, his later rounds are aggressive offensively. That is verbal that is out there, and some of it from this blog’s author.
Is it provably true? Give me an example. Okay. In 2020, Wright chose Dylan Holloway at No. 14 overall. Now, my list is pure math, and you need scouts, but the following players were ranked higher than Holloway on my list: Dawson Mercer, No. 10 (164 NHL games), Mavrik Bourque No. 11 (strong AHL season in 2022-23), Connor Zary No. 12 (strong AHL season), Noel Gunler No. 16 (AHL), Jacob Perreault No. 18 (one NHL game), Jan Mysak No. 19 (disappointing pro career so far), Lukas Reichel No. 23 (34 NHL games), Rodion Amirov (illness).
Sounds like he did fairly well to me. Holloway has played in 51 NHL games, so the only player who is well clear of him is Dawson Mercer. I do think superior offensive players were available. That said, Holloway showed very well at bookends (preseason, final AHL run) to his season. We’ll see. I’m less worried about it when looking at the entirety of Holloway’s 2022-23 season.
The second concern? This is in regard to the Bakersfield coaching staff playing the kids. Eric Rodgers does time-on-ice estimates based on goals scored at even strength while each player is on the ice. It isn’t perfect, but these models have been effective when modeling NHL players.
How much did the kids play? Among forwards, here are your even-strength TOI estimated leaders: Dylan Holloway 21:50; James Hamblin 18:42; Seth Griffith 17:22; Raphael Lavoie 15:24; Brad Malone 14:48; Noah Philp 14:28; Tyler Benson 14:11; Josh Bailey 13:28; Xavier Bourgault 12:50; Greg McKegg 12:39; Tyler Tullio 11:15; Luke Esposito 11:09; Carter Savoie 9:45; Dino Kambeitz 9:34.
That looks fine to me. There’s a train of thought that says Bourgault, Tullio and Savoie need to play more, need to see bigger minutes.
Was Jay Woodcroft any better in this area? No, about the same. In 2019-20, Ryan McLeod’s estimated ice time at even strength was 10:35, and the following season it moved to 19:43.
What do you think? It’s less of a problem than some believe. I also think it’s amazing in these days of miracle and wonder that we don’t have TOI for the AHL. Craziness. However, if the rookie McLeod numbers are accurate, the 2022-23 Condors were handled properly. Colin Chaulk has been criticized for this, by me specifically, not that he’d ever know. That said, I do want to make public that the informed estimates of Eric Rodgers, which I trust, are telling me I’m a windbag.
I hate to break it to you, but we all knew that moons ago. Look, this is a moment of self-awarenss, let me have this.
What do the lines look like? The most important center is Jayden Grubbe, I want a veteran winger with him to start his pro career. Fernando Pisani lives about five miles and $20 million dollars down the road from me, he would be ideal. I might run Grubbe with James Hamblin on LW and Tyler Tullio on RW. There’s skill, tenacity and aggressiveness there.
What about the Bourgault line? I’d like Lane Pederson to center Xavier Bourgault and Carter Savoie. I don’t think it will happen, as Pederson likely sees Drake Caggiula and Seth Griffith. For me, I’d like Greg McKegg between Caggiula and Jake Chiasson.
That leaves the fourth line. Brad Malone centers Matvey Petrov and Seth Griffith. Some skill, some oomph, lots of veteran savvy. Griffith still has great hands and Malone can still post some offense. It isn’t a fourth line, though. The fourth line is the McKegg line.
Thoughts on pairings? I think Ken Holland did a good thing acquiring speed and skill over the weekend, not sure what the pairings look like. I believe Max Wanner is the most important defender in the group, so would put him on the third pairing with a veteran puck mover. In this case, I’ll choose Ben Gleason since he has so much AHL experience. The top pairings should be Markus Niemelainen and Noel Hoefenmayer, plus Phil Kemp and Cam Dineen.
What about the goalies? I think Olivier Rodrigue takes over as the starter by Christmas, and Calvin Pickard could be dealt by the AHL deadline if Ryan Fanti performs well. Rodrigue’s spike was legit, call it a ‘small s’ Skinner uptick. He’ll play if he continues to show strong results.
Do you think the Oilers are getting enough talent bubbling up? In the last three seasons, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway have arrived. That’s five real contributors, plus Vincent Desharnais who doesn’t qualify as a rookie but that’s what he was last season. I think the Oilers have done well, but the pipeline is drying up.
How many rookies will play a lot in the NHL this season? Probably none. Raphael Lavoie is likely to have a season of part-time play (like Holloway a year ago) and you might see cups of coffee for Rodrigue, Gleason, Dineen, Hoefenmayer or Kemp on defense. Up front, Xavier Bourgault is the obvious candidate, but you might see Tyler Tullio or Jayden Grubbe. Lots of veterans could be in the mix, I believe Lane Pederson plays a lot in Edmonton.
I see Elliotte Friedman said he thought the Oilers would add a piece. Who is it? Must be a center, so that’s Jonathan Toews, Paul Stastny or Gaetan Haas.
I hate you. That’s fair.
POSSIBLE OILERS ROSTER OPENING NIGHT
This signs Evan Bouchard to the number Elliotte Friedman floated, at the cost of a true No. 4 center. That means some double shifting and moving Nuge into the middle at times. McLeod is a key at center, as Darcy McLeod detailed brilliantly yesterday. I like this team.
I think we go 11-7 on the road a lot when we don’t have last change so we can slot one of the top 3 centers plus RNH into the 4th line. Viola…..elite 4th line center. At home when we can control matchups we we can go 12-6 with one of the bottom 6 playing center (say Janmark with Ryan taking faceoffs) or play Peterson for 20-30 games to keep Ryan fresh. It’s not tough andf it’s not a problem.
At the TDL we see what is needed: Ceci upgrade, goalie, big 4th line C. Post-Christmas is when you start filling the holes, and until then, run 21 guys and bank as much cap as possible. Would be really nice to burn at least $1 million off the Brown bonus.
The problem with 11/7 is numbers. Odd numbers are evil
Or, it means they are overplaying centres. The way the league is structured means there is no time for anything in season. They can barely even practice which is ridiculous
NHL players lose weight in season. They can’t train. The ideal and what cup winners can do is play everyone. Roll lines and pairs. Builds the team and promotes health. The more TOI the more risk of injury, the more quality of play is reduced, more tired players protect themselves less because they are tired and don’t play with the same energy
Vegas did it the right way. Play normal hockey first, play the roster. Protecting health should be paramount. The Oiler and Panther staff asked for pounding the opponent. They ended up too injured. JM said Kigginits were healthy enough to play another round
€√¥£€^$
July 4, 2023 7:56 pm
For those interested in long-shot prospects, Noah Ganske, a 24 YO 6’7” NCAA Div III RHD, signed with Ft Wayne, the Condor’s affiliate yesterday. He attended development camp last year and to me was a standout. Smooth-skating, great stick, did not allow a shot against in the high-scoring scrimmages and looked like a bonafide prospect.
He did play 12 ECHL games last season, which is beneficial , but IMO he is ahead of Vinny D at the same age (I know this is debatable, but NG has better skills) and Vinny didn’t pop in the A until his 25 YO season. If he stays healthy he could arrive in the AHL this season, he will be a very interesting follow IMO.
I’ll be keeping very close tabs on him next season.
Suter’s only 27, never played in Canada, and had 14 goals last year. You would think he could do better than what we can pay.
Staal’s never really played in Canada except one stint in Montreal. He had 14 goals last year. He played for league min last year. He’d be the dream, but we don’t have Florida’s beaches.
Nosek’s never played in Canada. His last contract was 2x$1.75m.
No, I have no idea how we could begin to get into those players heads enough to make worthwhile guesses on that (unless they’re on record saying they won’t play in Canada or something).
Stepan is the only American on the list (and obviously not all Americans have an issue playing in Canada).
In terms of salary, money across the league is tighter than ever this year, and I don’t think any of these players are going to break the bank. And FWIW, I think the Oilers likely spend more like $1M on their last forward add (so not quite league min-ish).
Toews is from Winnipeg and has been linked to the Oilers repeatedly. I’m not sure why you think he wouldn’t come to Edmonton.
Grant is from BC and signed with Calgary as a FA back in 2015. His career high AAV is $1.5M.
Stall is from Thunder Bay though hasn’t played in Canada since junior. He played for league min last season though.
Suter is from Switzerland. Played a year of junior hockey in Canada. He made $3M plus last year though, so salary could be an issue for him.
Khaira I guess we agree on (from BC and a former Oiler).
Nosek is from Czechia and was signed from Europe by Holland back in Detroit. No idea if there’s a reason he wouldn’t play in Canada? His last deal (richest) was $1.75M AAV.
Stastny is an American/Canadian dual citizen. He’s played most of his career in the US, but he did sign willingly in Winnipeg in 2020. His last contract had an AAV of $1.5M.
Bellemare is French and has played his whole North American career in the US.
Tierny is from Keswick Ontario (near Barrie in southwest Ontario) and is at least happy to play in Ontario (signed as a FA in Ottawa). He’s coming off a league min deal – is there any reason he’d be unwilling to sign in Edmonton?
Stepan is from Minnesota and the only time he played in Canada was 1 year after being traded to Ottawa as a cap dump. He was league min last year but he seems like a guy who plausibly wouldn’t want to sign in Canada.
The Oilers are selling a chance at Stanley for those who are interested.
I’m not sure if any of the guys listed are going to get paid more than $1.5M next season, so they also wouldn’t be leaving a lot on the table to become Oilers (as I said I think the Oilers will be able to offer $1M-ish).
I don’t think we can make a worthwhile attempt to suss out the tiers because we have no idea what the respective players are thinking.
If they’re more interested in $200k or $500k than a cup then they likely aren’t destined to become Oilers. Four of the ten players I listed played last season 1) on a contender, and 2) for $750k though, so we can infer at least some of them are looking for team success.
lol. I posted people should stop talking about a subject then realized I had in fact mentioned it in the original post this morning. 🙂
SwedishPoster
July 4, 2023 3:22 pm
Saw Samuel Jonsson was in camp. He had an interesting season, pretty average regular season, had a bit of a rough start to the year but improved as the year rolled on and ended up with a passing grade on the regular season. Then for the playoffs he was crazy good and pretty much won his team the title. In 6 games he had 2.09 GAA and .927 sv%, won all six games. Small sample and so on but everything I’ve read on this years U20 playoffs in Sweden have mentioned that he was the main reason Rögle won. So an okish season with a serious high note at the end. Let’s hope it’s a signed he’s popped and not just a heater.
He’ll play for Karlskoga in Allsvenskan next season. Good step. Hope he gets a reasonable amount of games. He’ll likely be their #2 to start the year, the team’s starter from last season is still with the team and he’s a veteran with two strong seasons in a row so Samuel will have to battle him for ice time.
Harpers Hair
July 4, 2023 2:19 pm
Andy Strickland @andystrickland
Vladimir Tarasenko is mulling thru several offers, as many as six. Some one year, some multi-year. Appears to be closing in on a decision.
teddyturnbuckle
July 4, 2023 12:45 pm
Is it an option next spring to trade Brown’s contract after the season is over and before the draft to have another team eat his bonus money? Say for a 2nd and 3rd like the Kassian deal.
Well that’s interesting. Edm most likely will have Brown’s bonus $3.25 Mil count against the Cap next year. They still have Neal @ $1.9 Mil this year and next year ….
Let’s hope the Cap goes waaaaaaaaay up next season !
Yes, the MOU that was signed early in the pandemic mandated a max 5% escalation unless otherwise negotiated
This past season the players wanted nothing to do with more escrow payments as was their right (and the static $1M bump)
Hart Levine was on with Bob last week and they were suggesting that with the last of the escrow being paid off this year, and based on projected revenues, there is a scenario where the owners may actually owe the players some money after this year
Early projections suggest a cap closer to $88M, which is a modest bump on the 5% escalator ($87.6M)
So maybe there is a slight bump up from 5%, but it’s not going to be massive, and, it would still need to be negotiated
$3MM (apx) of dead cap would cost a pretty penny to divest.
At this point, I will hope for Holloway to be ready to replace Brown, Lavoie be ready to replace Foegele and Bourgault/Tulio/Grubbe/XX be ready to replace Lavoie.
Part of the problem with that is, Holloway’s needs a contract so, if he is ready to be full time 2nd line, he MAY need a material raise.
Scungilli Slushy
July 4, 2023 12:02 pm
Thanks LT for linking Mr McLeod’s piece or I would have missed it
The bias is obvious. There can only be one. I doubt they’re even related!
Kidding aside, for some reason half narratives are getting me riled up lately. Woodguy did a great job bringing some data to the question, and it matches what I thought I was seeing
I’m not sure Woody is as much a good coach as he is not a bad coach. Al Arbour was asked what made a good coach and his response was the players getting off the bus in front of the coach
How much of the success they had was just having a lot of talent that can destroy teams that are short handed, which made some fundamental even strength problems not seem as serious?
I think a lot of it. Connor decided he wanted to dominate another aspect of the game and stepped up his two way play as he said he would before the season. Adding Ekholm was massive and he’s definitely their best defenseman currently to me
I’m not trashing Woody, but it seems like facts to me. I was quite concerned about their even strength play because I didn’t think their offensive strategy was specific enough. Hang the puck around the perimeter and wait for someone to do something special. Far too much relying on bounces etc than surgically attacking teams with superior talent. What Vegas did to us
To handle deployments so poorly when there were options is simply not good coaching. And losing because of it. They had the players and messed it up. How can that be the sign of good coaching? Seriously. He is no rookie. As he said 10 seasons behind an NHL bench and years as HC. Tons of experience
Again this isn’t about me having some obsession against Woody, it’s what we saw play out and verified by Woodguy. It leaves me very concerned about next season. It’s not one to waste because the coaches are wrong again in their strategies and won’t use last changes to advantage or can’t figure out who’s getting crushed
The system they used sucks and is unplayable by talented players. Flawed and exploited. I saw Ekholm regress as he played more, to what he was asked to do from what he was used to playing coming in
I like Clouder, big fan, huge potential to outperform. I see the maths, I don’t disagree for the most part. But I don’t think its as simple as “play the man.” There are moving parts in there.
A couple of thoughts
1) Coming into the playoffs McR had been out for nearly a month with an injury. His 2nd big injury of the year.
2) If Woody would have hard matched McR’s line you’d have put out Vegas’ most dominant line against a broken fingured Foegele who couldn’t really shoot and Ryan. That wouldn’t work.
3) If you throw McR out with other top six players its likely a McR-Yamo-Nuge or McR-Drai-Yamo matchup. McR doesn’t play with Nuge or Drai at all and he played 88 min with Yamo in the RS. If you don’t stack them like that its Nuge, McR and one of the clearly injured Kane and/or Hyman. He played with Hyman a bit (82 min) but not really with Kane and none with Nuge. So you’d have been putting a sophmore out with guys he rarely palyed with, none of those men are defensive stalwarts and McR is trying to find consistency in his offensive output. That is a lot to ask.
4) Woody would have had to alter a 3rd line that was bringing the jam where they were matched up and without a replacement C who could clearly maintain McR’s pace. McR played most of his season with Foegele, Ryan, Janmark and JP. So the familiarity and proper line matching was working. Could Nick B have been more effective in that role? Could you have dropped Nuge all the way down to 3rd line centre? Both Nick B and Nuge are slower than McR, I’m not sure they are any more dogged on the forecheck. Would that trade off have worked?
5) what do you do with one of the Wingers McR is displacing? Where does one of Yamo, Kane or Hyman go and who plays center with them (see above)? Does a 3rd line with Nick B or Ryan outperform when Foegele is already injured, Kane and/or Hyman are injured and Yamo was Yamo?
Moving McR around kicks off a nasty line blender and its not clear there is an optimal solution in there that doesn’t create other risks.
I go back to my end of year take on how the injury situation hampered Woody more than strategy. If one of Kane or Hyman is healthy we don’t have a problem. You can rotate guys without losing a matchup you’re winning. If Janmark is healthy we also have a lesser risk on that 3rd line. But with everyone hurt the way they were the combinations are limited. If you move McR there is a chance you start losing that 3rd line matchup which has kept some of the heat off McD.
I think Woody could have played McR’s line a bit more. But I also think there were limits to where he could take that.
— It was clear to me that he got out coached during the playoffs: the changes he made worked but there were lag and his adjustment on fly wasn’t great I thought.
— Not quant about that analysis: just the flows of the games
The eighties OIlers blew it against LA and against the Islanders once. It wasn’t a reason to fire Sather. Woodcroft got owned by Cassidy. We should wait to see the response.
What on earth do you mean? Sather was head coach of the WHA Oilers for 2 seasons and head coach of the NHL Oilers from their inception.
He’d had 5 full seasons as head coach when the Oilers lost to LA, and 6 when the lost to the Islanders.
Woodcroft was an assistant coach for years but has only been an NHL head coach for one and a half seasons.
jp
July 4, 2023 11:58 am
This signs Evan Bouchard to the number Elliotte Friedman floated, at the cost of a true No. 4 center.
As noted elsewhere in the thread, that roster is $380k-ish under the cap.
Meaning that a true 4C could be added to the roster in place of Lavoie for $1.1M+ (Lavoie’s $775k plus the $380k).
Hopefully Bouchard/McLeod come in cheap enough for a 22-man roster (ie – a 4C and Lavoie). Whether it’s 21 or 22 though, I do still expect an NHL C to be added before training camp.
defmn
July 4, 2023 11:49 am
This signs Evan Bouchard to the number Elliotte Friedman floated, at the cost of a true No. 4 center.
==================
I just listened to the Marak/Friedman podcast and thought he said between 3.5 and 4. Did he say $4M somewhere else or are you just betting on the high side?
Every year there is gnashing of teeth over the thought of an offer sheet for some young star by that fan base and howls of incompetence directed at their GM from those that want to see their team make one.
They rarely occur and that is really the only leverage Bouchard has this summer.
Decisive teams have generally moved on or signed their RFAs.
Dully noted that non-decisive teams include:
Seattle (Dunn, Borgen)
Colorado (Colton)
NY Rangers (Miller, Lafreniere)
Toronto (Samsonov)
Tampa Bay (Jeannot)
Boston (Swayman, Frederic)
Dallas (Dellandrea)
Vegas (Howdon)
Minnesota (Gustavsson, Addison)
Detroit (Veleno)
Winnipeg (Villardi, Kupari, Barron)
NY Islanders (Wahlstrom)
St. Louis (Torpchenko)
Ottawa (DeBrincat, Pinto)
Philadelphia (Frost, Cates)
Montreal (Newhook, Ylonen)
Anaheim (Zegras, Terry)
Arizona (Maccelli, McBain)
Chicago (Kurashev)
So you’ll spin Seattle’s situation as ‘looking at acquiring an offensive difference maker’ and the Oilers as increasing the ‘chance things go sideways’?
I expect, at least on some level, he and his agent are trying to extract more money or find a possible offer sheet as a hammer. That’s just a thought on my part, but I’ve said for some time this could go long ala Ethan Bear and Ryan McLeod.
Except more high stakes.
However, that’s not what you were saying in your post.
All I was saying is that if Holland grinds Bouchard, Evan and his agent should insist in a one year deal to take him to a higher cap era and I believe arbitration status.
I think it benefits Bouchard to sign a one-year deal. Oilers will try for two. That’s par for the course imo for such a strong rfa. I do think it’ll take some time because the player and agent may wait to see if there’s an OS out there.
Even the threat of one could be effective.
TheGreatBigMac
July 4, 2023 11:16 am
The team looks great, it’s go time! Curious about Janmark at center is that a serious thought, would be cool if he could do it.
janmark has not played meaningful center mins for a long time.
Attila
July 4, 2023 11:15 am
We need a 4th line NHL center. How is this option:
“If the Oilers would instead prefer more of a gritty bottom-six-style forward, Noah Gregor may be the best fit. The 24-year-old, who grew up near Edmonton, recently went unqualified by the San Jose Sharks after a season in which he had 10 goals and 17 points in 57 games.
While Gregor’s offensive skills aren’t anything to marvel at, he is strong in his own zone and provides great speed to a lineup. On top of that, he would command a near-league-minimum deal, which would be highly beneficial for an Oilers team that is very cap strapped.”
Nope, just as an option to add to the forward depth – another player between Drake Caggiulia and the Oilers’ lineup (although I did suggest him well before Drake was signed) given the need for some replacements in the bottom six. He can compete with the likes of Lavoie – he is more established and shouldn’t cost any more on the cap (well, maybe a tiny bit).
leadfarmer
July 4, 2023 11:10 am
It stinks for JP to need his hips repaired again but I don’t think skating is the reason for his struggles
Its tough to know what the lines might look like in Bako but, from history, I think we know that the fresh rookie pros will likely need to earn the trust of the coach and their way up the lineup. Look at the likes of Philp and Tulio last season – limited roles and ice to start last season but, by season’s end, Philp was getting 1C time and Tulio, while kind of all over, had some PP1 and legit impact role deployment.
I expect that Tulio and Bourgault will get pushes up the lineup, Savoie will earn that on merit. The likes of Chiasson and Petrov will need to earn it and it will take time.
OriginalPouzar
July 4, 2023 9:56 am
Name 10 players who spent time in Bakersfield and then emerged as NHL players (100 NHL games). Among players judged to be rookies by the AHL (so excluding Leon Draisaitl and similar), and who played 25 games or more in an AHL season (excluding Darnell Nurse and similar) the total is 8. They are: Anton Slepyshev, Jesse Puljujarvi, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner (it’s 50 games for goalies), Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod.
No doubt Holloway and Broberg are on their way.
Is that good? Yeah, I think Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson did a fantastic job in Bakersfield. I wish they would have had more than four games with JP.
We can blame Ken Hitchcock and his “I can fix him” for that.
Unfortunately, Jesse was born with this hip condition that obviously even the doctors can’t repair permanently. Hopefully he’s already made enough money to sit back and take it easy the rest of his life.
Me thinks there is a lot more to Hitchcock’s statement. He had a handshake deal with Chiarelli in the summer to parachute into Edmonton the moment Todd M struggled.
Todd did not want Jessie on the roster, Chiarelli did. Hitchcock lands ready to fully support the struggling GM. Brings back Jessie with intention to prove Todd wrong and make him into a player. Hitchcock knew his coaching style was never going to fix a struggling Fin with limited English, not a chance.
Hitchcock was Chiarelli’s last chance. Chiarelli was Hitchcock’s last chance behind the bench.
OriginalPouzar
July 4, 2023 9:52 am
I see another failed first-round pick was sent away.Kailer Yamamoto isn’t a failed first-round pick. He has enjoyed a solid career for a No. 22 overall selection. The cap bit him. He ranks No. 11 in GP and No. 12 in total points from his draft year.
Yup – truth be told, Yamamoto goes higher in a re-draft of that first round.
For the most part, there is a dearth of impact for those drafted after him in range. The only two in range that are ahead of him are Jake O. and Jason Robertson – yes, two high impact players but they were both ranked below Yamo on pretty much all lists and I don’t recall anyone screaming for those players at the time….
Yamo is likely to provide value to the Kraken for $1.5MM and could earn himself another solid contract after this season.
What happens if the Oilers take Jake Oettinger instead of Yamamoto. Since it’s national Yamamoto tooting day he did have the benifit of playing with the 2 best Centres in the league.
Playing with Draisaitl and McDavid is such a damned if you do or damned if you don’t situation. If the player produces with McDavid and Drai the player gets zero credit for it and if the player’s production drops, it’s all their fault.
Yamamoto had the benefit of playing with the 2 best Centres in the league because he was able to play with them. We have seen times where McDavid and Drai are given wingers who produced even less than Yamamoto did. I also realize that Yamamoto was expected to produce more given his contract, but still, Yamamoto is an NHL quality player.
What happens if the Oilers got Oettinger instead? Well, what if Oettinger doesn’t play well with Edmonton in this hypothetical because Dallas and Edmonton’s defensive structures are different. Maybe Oettinger would have thrived in Dallas’ but not Edmonton’s.
Yamamoto failed miserably in hte playoffs four years in a row. I gave him the benefit of the doubt on his ELC. I don’t go FULL GODOT10 on players earning under one million.
You keep saying Yamamoto was the best bet at 22 in a redraft 32 G.M’s would pick Jake Oettinger. The only reason the Oilers took Yamamoto was the previous year miss on Debrincat and the boasting by Yamamoto on how good he was.The league started drafting vertically challenged skilled forwards and they were hitting. Yamamoto was a miss in my books he took someone’s position that would of scored more and would of been more defensive conscious especially in the Playoffs.
I said he was a good pick at 22 and would go higher than 22 in a re-draft, which he would.
I also stated that there were only two players drafted in the range after him that would have been better – two players that were ranked below him on pretty much all lists and which I don’t recall anyone screaming for at the time.
Because I don’t throw vitriol at the player and cite that a player with a 20-goal season in NHL (and a 30 game run with a PPG) as having stone hands? You infer alot of things that aren’t true.
In fact (1) I almost always sided with Jesse over Yamo in the “great debate” and (2) for years now I’ve cited that when the Oilers have enough depth to play Yamo in the 3rd line, they will be able to contend for the cup.
The blog’s author wrote a paragraph on the player and his draft, I provide my opinion thereon and I would suggest that maybe its you that need not engage in topics about the player who is playing for the enemy.
As much as you wish upon a star Yamamoto will never score 20 again. After the I’m a Yankee Doodle dandy bounce Yamamoto will end up in the Swiss league playing with Hass and Kahun are maybe the Swedish league with Rattie and J.P.
It will come down to health for Yamamoto. His NHL career is 244 games in and he averages 16.8 goals per 82 games. He is 24. KY will need some luck, and find a way to play on a skill line, but his lack of power-play opportunity in Edmonton (just six of 50 goals with the man advantage) means there’s an massive opportunity for a goal-scoring spike.
A fine player. Health and the cap lost him his Edmonton job.
jtblack
July 4, 2023 9:34 am
LT: you are a windbag 🙂
jtblack
July 4, 2023 9:33 am
very funny as always 🙂
I like this team too. Let’s revisit something.
2021-22. Top team in the Western Conference? COLORADO
2022-233. Top team in the Western Conference? VEGAS
Edmonton has been prone to slow starts the last few years, with blistering finishes. Given Ekholm in the lineup from opening night, I would like to see Edmonton start strong and be consistent right through the season and land the #1 seed in the West.
I know, I know. The #1 seed doesn’t guarantee sh*t. But the last 2 seasons the #1 seed got arguably the worst team in the playoffs for their 1st round matchup. Colorado smoked Nashville in a sweep. Vegas smoked the Jets in 5.
lol. I do agree that being critical of the Oilers not taking Mercer is a stretch, he wasn’t ranked No. 10 on any list aside from mine (that I’m aware). There are those who will be critical, but I had Mavrik Bourque at 11 and he hasn’t popped yet either.
I was just trying to continue the (faux) response from Riesen to Believe a couple weeks ago, where you were surprised by the lack of rage on Mercer-Holloway…
Ah, well, I tried to start a revolution but didn’t print enough pamphlets, so hardly anyone showed up.
I mean, except for your mum and her boyfriend, who we hate.
😀
brobergstan
July 4, 2023 9:10 am
I stopped in at development camp yesterday to watch the forwards and goalies and was impressed with the professionalism of the staff and enjoyed watching the drills.
A few things stood out to me.
the kids brought in on tryouts all appeared to lack even AHL level skating, looking at you zapernick, sloan, and lounsbury. I was shocked at the lack of mobility.
to contrast, bourgault, tullio, and savoie to a lesser extent looked dominant although savoie and tullio have struggles skating backwards at pace.
Xavier bourgault….. he has real skill, real mobility, and looks like a very very nice piece.
Ryan Fanti was sitting in the bleachers and did not participate in the drills, i did not want to bother him so did not ask questions.
Shane lachance, hooooofta, he is a BIG boy. His skating needs work but he is huge. Could he become a homegrown bottom 6 with size and a power forward style???
One of the guys im interested to view is petrov, his skating is a lot better than i initially gave him credit for and i cannot believe he was taken so late in the draft. Grubbe looked decent but not outstanding by my eye.
Will be interested to follow these young guns over the coming months.
As a footnote, samuel jonsson looked good in net from my limited viewing.
Thanks for the insights! Specifically curious about the fwd invitees Stonehouse and Verrault, or do they fall into the poor skating bunch you mentioned?
i didnt notice stonehouse or verriault either good or bad… similarily mazura, chiasson, and berglund who all seemed just a little invisible. was just drills so their positional work and etc couldnt be shown.
Awesome, thanks! I think with Stonehouse in particular it is probably hard for what he does really well to show in drills. Ideally he’s not agitating outside of games haha.
New for The Athletic: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
https://theathletic.com/4663694/2023/07/05/oilers-roster-holloway-broberg-lavoie/
I think we go 11-7 on the road a lot when we don’t have last change so we can slot one of the top 3 centers plus RNH into the 4th line. Viola…..elite 4th line center. At home when we can control matchups we we can go 12-6 with one of the bottom 6 playing center (say Janmark with Ryan taking faceoffs) or play Peterson for 20-30 games to keep Ryan fresh. It’s not tough andf it’s not a problem.
At the TDL we see what is needed: Ceci upgrade, goalie, big 4th line C. Post-Christmas is when you start filling the holes, and until then, run 21 guys and bank as much cap as possible. Would be really nice to burn at least $1 million off the Brown bonus.
I would imagine that they they plan on spending any accrued cap space in-season.
I can’t imagine they have anywhere near $1MM of unused cap space at year’s end.
The problem with 11/7 is numbers. Odd numbers are evil
Or, it means they are overplaying centres. The way the league is structured means there is no time for anything in season. They can barely even practice which is ridiculous
NHL players lose weight in season. They can’t train. The ideal and what cup winners can do is play everyone. Roll lines and pairs. Builds the team and promotes health. The more TOI the more risk of injury, the more quality of play is reduced, more tired players protect themselves less because they are tired and don’t play with the same energy
Vegas did it the right way. Play normal hockey first, play the roster. Protecting health should be paramount. The Oiler and Panther staff asked for pounding the opponent. They ended up too injured. JM said Kigginits were healthy enough to play another round
For those interested in long-shot prospects, Noah Ganske, a 24 YO 6’7” NCAA Div III RHD, signed with Ft Wayne, the Condor’s affiliate yesterday. He attended development camp last year and to me was a standout. Smooth-skating, great stick, did not allow a shot against in the high-scoring scrimmages and looked like a bonafide prospect.
He did play 12 ECHL games last season, which is beneficial , but IMO he is ahead of Vinny D at the same age (I know this is debatable, but NG has better skills) and Vinny didn’t pop in the A until his 25 YO season. If he stays healthy he could arrive in the AHL this season, he will be a very interesting follow IMO.
I’ll be keeping very close tabs on him next season.
Assuming Toews retires, who’s left for 4c that will realistically sign for a hair over league min?
https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/free-agents/center/ufa/available/
I posted this a couple of days ago. Plausible adds for 4C or extra forward:
Listed is each players age, handedness, GP G-A-TP +/- PIM FO%. Note that the list is ordered by TOI/game even though TOI/game is not shown.
J. Toews 35 LC 53 15-16-31 -31 43 63.1%
D. Grant 33 LC 46 5-13-18 -4 26 55.2%
E. Staal 38 LC 72 14-15-29 -5 26 46.2%
P. Suter 27 LC 79 14-10-24 -3 6 46.8%
JJ. Khaira 29 LC 51 6-8-14 -11 31 48.4%
T. Nosek 31 LC 66 7-11-18 9 48 59.3%
P. Stastny 37 LC 73 9-13-22 4 16 57.6%
PE. Bellemare 38 LC 73 4-9-13 -9 34 52.3%
C. Tierny 29 LC 36 3-7-19 -8 6 47.0%
D. Stepan 33 RC 73 5-6-11 8 8 54.0%
Not sure all these guys are worth a contract.
And while a number of them may not be ‘the answer’ for 4C, they at very least have a good chance to be an improvement on Pederson.
Of those 10 names, how many are realistically going to head north and play for league min(ish)?
Likely
Khaira
Bellemare
Tierny
Maybe?
Stepan
Grant
Toews
Stastny
Unlikely
Staal
Nosek
TiernySuter
Is that fair?
Why wouldn’t Tierny? From Ontario, played with Kane, Ceci & Brown.
I don’t think he’s a great target, but he certainly would close the door on an E-town opportunity, he won’t have many NHL offers.
I missed that Tierney was placed on waivers last year. Sure, I’ll add him to the likely list.
Suter’s only 27, never played in Canada, and had 14 goals last year. You would think he could do better than what we can pay.
Staal’s never really played in Canada except one stint in Montreal. He had 14 goals last year. He played for league min last year. He’d be the dream, but we don’t have Florida’s beaches.
Nosek’s never played in Canada. His last contract was 2x$1.75m.
Huh.
No, I have no idea how we could begin to get into those players heads enough to make worthwhile guesses on that (unless they’re on record saying they won’t play in Canada or something).
Stepan is the only American on the list (and obviously not all Americans have an issue playing in Canada).
In terms of salary, money across the league is tighter than ever this year, and I don’t think any of these players are going to break the bank. And FWIW, I think the Oilers likely spend more like $1M on their last forward add (so not quite league min-ish).
Toews is from Winnipeg and has been linked to the Oilers repeatedly. I’m not sure why you think he wouldn’t come to Edmonton.
Grant is from BC and signed with Calgary as a FA back in 2015. His career high AAV is $1.5M.
Stall is from Thunder Bay though hasn’t played in Canada since junior. He played for league min last season though.
Suter is from Switzerland. Played a year of junior hockey in Canada. He made $3M plus last year though, so salary could be an issue for him.
Khaira I guess we agree on (from BC and a former Oiler).
Nosek is from Czechia and was signed from Europe by Holland back in Detroit. No idea if there’s a reason he wouldn’t play in Canada? His last deal (richest) was $1.75M AAV.
Stastny is an American/Canadian dual citizen. He’s played most of his career in the US, but he did sign willingly in Winnipeg in 2020. His last contract had an AAV of $1.5M.
Bellemare is French and has played his whole North American career in the US.
Tierny is from Keswick Ontario (near Barrie in southwest Ontario) and is at least happy to play in Ontario (signed as a FA in Ottawa). He’s coming off a league min deal – is there any reason he’d be unwilling to sign in Edmonton?
Stepan is from Minnesota and the only time he played in Canada was 1 year after being traded to Ottawa as a cap dump. He was league min last year but he seems like a guy who plausibly wouldn’t want to sign in Canada.
Retirement / health concerns.
Toews clearly has to decide if he wants to continue to play, but you realize he returned to play the last seven games of the season?
If Toews is willing to come here for league minimum to push for one more Stanley cup, I’m all for it.
I was just try to suss out different tiers from your list in terms of which players are more or less likely to play for league min here.
The Oilers are selling a chance at Stanley for those who are interested.
I’m not sure if any of the guys listed are going to get paid more than $1.5M next season, so they also wouldn’t be leaving a lot on the table to become Oilers (as I said I think the Oilers will be able to offer $1M-ish).
I don’t think we can make a worthwhile attempt to suss out the tiers because we have no idea what the respective players are thinking.
If they’re more interested in $200k or $500k than a cup then they likely aren’t destined to become Oilers. Four of the ten players I listed played last season 1) on a contender, and 2) for $750k though, so we can infer at least some of them are looking for team success.
Edmonton Oilers@EdmontonOilers·2m
The #Oilers have signed goaltender Olivier Rodrigue to a one-year, two-way contract with an AAV of $775,000.
Pretty much as expected.
Lavoie will likely follow next with similar terms but he MAY try and get the 2nd year to be a one-way.
I’d guess Lavoie will be one-way regardless of whether it’s one or two years.
The Oilers have signed goaltender Olivier Rodrigue to a one-year, two-way contract with an AAV of $775,000.
via Oilers
Not sure if it’s my phone, but how much more black can this post be? The answer is none, none more black.
It’s a mute point.
Moot too.
It’s a cow’s opinion. It’s a moo point.
lol. I posted people should stop talking about a subject then realized I had in fact mentioned it in the original post this morning. 🙂
Saw Samuel Jonsson was in camp. He had an interesting season, pretty average regular season, had a bit of a rough start to the year but improved as the year rolled on and ended up with a passing grade on the regular season. Then for the playoffs he was crazy good and pretty much won his team the title. In 6 games he had 2.09 GAA and .927 sv%, won all six games. Small sample and so on but everything I’ve read on this years U20 playoffs in Sweden have mentioned that he was the main reason Rögle won. So an okish season with a serious high note at the end. Let’s hope it’s a signed he’s popped and not just a heater.
He’ll play for Karlskoga in Allsvenskan next season. Good step. Hope he gets a reasonable amount of games. He’ll likely be their #2 to start the year, the team’s starter from last season is still with the team and he’s a veteran with two strong seasons in a row so Samuel will have to battle him for ice time.
Andy Strickland
@andystrickland
Vladimir Tarasenko is mulling thru several offers, as many as six. Some one year, some multi-year. Appears to be closing in on a decision.
Is it an option next spring to trade Brown’s contract after the season is over and before the draft to have another team eat his bonus money? Say for a 2nd and 3rd like the Kassian deal.
nobody is eating the bonus
price for everything.
if actually possible.
Well that’s interesting. Edm most likely will have Brown’s bonus $3.25 Mil count against the Cap next year. They still have Neal @ $1.9 Mil this year and next year ….
Let’s hope the Cap goes waaaaaaaaay up next season !
i believe the cba mandates the cap can only rise by 5% per season.
Yes, the MOU that was signed early in the pandemic mandated a max 5% escalation unless otherwise negotiated
This past season the players wanted nothing to do with more escrow payments as was their right (and the static $1M bump)
Hart Levine was on with Bob last week and they were suggesting that with the last of the escrow being paid off this year, and based on projected revenues, there is a scenario where the owners may actually owe the players some money after this year
Early projections suggest a cap closer to $88M, which is a modest bump on the 5% escalator ($87.6M)
So maybe there is a slight bump up from 5%, but it’s not going to be massive, and, it would still need to be negotiated
We wait
Meh. Just give someone the same bonus again next year. And again the next and again….
Except performance bonus contracts are only available for ELCs and those 35+ but for the rare 100 days on LTIR (and over 400 NHL games) exception.
$3MM (apx) of dead cap would cost a pretty penny to divest.
At this point, I will hope for Holloway to be ready to replace Brown, Lavoie be ready to replace Foegele and Bourgault/Tulio/Grubbe/XX be ready to replace Lavoie.
Part of the problem with that is, Holloway’s needs a contract so, if he is ready to be full time 2nd line, he MAY need a material raise.
Thanks LT for linking Mr McLeod’s piece or I would have missed it
The bias is obvious. There can only be one. I doubt they’re even related!
Kidding aside, for some reason half narratives are getting me riled up lately. Woodguy did a great job bringing some data to the question, and it matches what I thought I was seeing
I’m not sure Woody is as much a good coach as he is not a bad coach. Al Arbour was asked what made a good coach and his response was the players getting off the bus in front of the coach
How much of the success they had was just having a lot of talent that can destroy teams that are short handed, which made some fundamental even strength problems not seem as serious?
I think a lot of it. Connor decided he wanted to dominate another aspect of the game and stepped up his two way play as he said he would before the season. Adding Ekholm was massive and he’s definitely their best defenseman currently to me
I’m not trashing Woody, but it seems like facts to me. I was quite concerned about their even strength play because I didn’t think their offensive strategy was specific enough. Hang the puck around the perimeter and wait for someone to do something special. Far too much relying on bounces etc than surgically attacking teams with superior talent. What Vegas did to us
To handle deployments so poorly when there were options is simply not good coaching. And losing because of it. They had the players and messed it up. How can that be the sign of good coaching? Seriously. He is no rookie. As he said 10 seasons behind an NHL bench and years as HC. Tons of experience
Again this isn’t about me having some obsession against Woody, it’s what we saw play out and verified by Woodguy. It leaves me very concerned about next season. It’s not one to waste because the coaches are wrong again in their strategies and won’t use last changes to advantage or can’t figure out who’s getting crushed
The system they used sucks and is unplayable by talented players. Flawed and exploited. I saw Ekholm regress as he played more, to what he was asked to do from what he was used to playing coming in
Ekholm regressed because he was on an insane heater after the trade.
80% goal differential and PPG was sustainable?
See above
Everyone focuses on points. I meant his defensive play. It changed structurally to my eyes
I like Clouder, big fan, huge potential to outperform. I see the maths, I don’t disagree for the most part. But I don’t think its as simple as “play the man.” There are moving parts in there.
A couple of thoughts
1) Coming into the playoffs McR had been out for nearly a month with an injury. His 2nd big injury of the year.
2) If Woody would have hard matched McR’s line you’d have put out Vegas’ most dominant line against a broken fingured Foegele who couldn’t really shoot and Ryan. That wouldn’t work.
3) If you throw McR out with other top six players its likely a McR-Yamo-Nuge or McR-Drai-Yamo matchup. McR doesn’t play with Nuge or Drai at all and he played 88 min with Yamo in the RS. If you don’t stack them like that its Nuge, McR and one of the clearly injured Kane and/or Hyman. He played with Hyman a bit (82 min) but not really with Kane and none with Nuge. So you’d have been putting a sophmore out with guys he rarely palyed with, none of those men are defensive stalwarts and McR is trying to find consistency in his offensive output. That is a lot to ask.
4) Woody would have had to alter a 3rd line that was bringing the jam where they were matched up and without a replacement C who could clearly maintain McR’s pace. McR played most of his season with Foegele, Ryan, Janmark and JP. So the familiarity and proper line matching was working. Could Nick B have been more effective in that role? Could you have dropped Nuge all the way down to 3rd line centre? Both Nick B and Nuge are slower than McR, I’m not sure they are any more dogged on the forecheck. Would that trade off have worked?
5) what do you do with one of the Wingers McR is displacing? Where does one of Yamo, Kane or Hyman go and who plays center with them (see above)? Does a 3rd line with Nick B or Ryan outperform when Foegele is already injured, Kane and/or Hyman are injured and Yamo was Yamo?
Moving McR around kicks off a nasty line blender and its not clear there is an optimal solution in there that doesn’t create other risks.
I go back to my end of year take on how the injury situation hampered Woody more than strategy. If one of Kane or Hyman is healthy we don’t have a problem. You can rotate guys without losing a matchup you’re winning. If Janmark is healthy we also have a lesser risk on that 3rd line. But with everyone hurt the way they were the combinations are limited. If you move McR there is a chance you start losing that 3rd line matchup which has kept some of the heat off McD.
I think Woody could have played McR’s line a bit more. But I also think there were limits to where he could take that.
Is Ryan McLeod McR now? Was I away the day we came up with new nicknames?
The Oilers have a long history of playing guys so injured they are in effective over others
Also playing vets over youth regardless of results. My point is, and Woodguy’s is the numbers say there was an option
Cassidy changed things and won a cup. We can also at least try and they didn’t, again
— It was clear to me that he got out coached during the playoffs: the changes he made worked but there were lag and his adjustment on fly wasn’t great I thought.
— Not quant about that analysis: just the flows of the games
The eighties OIlers blew it against LA and against the Islanders once. It wasn’t a reason to fire Sather. Woodcroft got owned by Cassidy. We should wait to see the response.
True. I’m saying Woody isn’t really a rookie, and Sather was
He learned fast and was highly adaptive
What on earth do you mean? Sather was head coach of the WHA Oilers for 2 seasons and head coach of the NHL Oilers from their inception.
He’d had 5 full seasons as head coach when the Oilers lost to LA, and 6 when the lost to the Islanders.
Woodcroft was an assistant coach for years but has only been an NHL head coach for one and a half seasons.
As noted elsewhere in the thread, that roster is $380k-ish under the cap.
Meaning that a true 4C could be added to the roster in place of Lavoie for $1.1M+ (Lavoie’s $775k plus the $380k).
Hopefully Bouchard/McLeod come in cheap enough for a 22-man roster (ie – a 4C and Lavoie). Whether it’s 21 or 22 though, I do still expect an NHL C to be added before training camp.
This signs Evan Bouchard to the number Elliotte Friedman floated, at the cost of a true No. 4 center.
==================
I just listened to the Marak/Friedman podcast and thought he said between 3.5 and 4. Did he say $4M somewhere else or are you just betting on the high side?
Betting high.
Thanks and for what it is worth I agree. If it was closer to $3.5 we would already have seen the announcement.
I do wonder if that number creates a discussion for another move.
Holland may get boxed in here.
If I am Bouchard’s agent I would only agree to a one year extension at that price and go for more next season when the cap rises.
Every year there is gnashing of teeth over the thought of an offer sheet for some young star by that fan base and howls of incompetence directed at their GM from those that want to see their team make one.
They rarely occur and that is really the only leverage Bouchard has this summer.
So, if Holland offers 2 years at $3 million, do you think Bouchard signs it?
No one said anything about 2x$3mil
Stop creating narratives.
The narrative being created is that Bouchard has to sign whatever he is offered.
If that was true he would already be signed.
No one is saying this. You’re on an island.
Why, in your opinion has Bouchard not signed?
Have a lot of teams signed their RFAs on July 4th, HH?
Many have.
Decisive teams have generally moved on or signed their RFAs.
Dully noted that non-decisive teams include:
Seattle (Dunn, Borgen)
Colorado (Colton)
NY Rangers (Miller, Lafreniere)
Toronto (Samsonov)
Tampa Bay (Jeannot)
Boston (Swayman, Frederic)
Dallas (Dellandrea)
Vegas (Howdon)
Minnesota (Gustavsson, Addison)
Detroit (Veleno)
Winnipeg (Villardi, Kupari, Barron)
NY Islanders (Wahlstrom)
St. Louis (Torpchenko)
Ottawa (DeBrincat, Pinto)
Philadelphia (Frost, Cates)
Montreal (Newhook, Ylonen)
Anaheim (Zegras, Terry)
Arizona (Maccelli, McBain)
Chicago (Kurashev)
Seattle is an interesting team to watch.
They let Carson Soucy leave and still have Vince Dunn and Will Borgen twisting in the wind as RFAs with arbitration rights.
A lot of chatter than they’re in on Erik Karlsson and are also looking at acquiring an offensive difference maker.
One would assume the Oilers want to bring back both Bouchard and McLeod and it would seem they’re done as soon as those two are locked up.
The longer it drags on the higher chance things go sideways.
So you’ll spin Seattle’s situation as ‘looking at acquiring an offensive difference maker’ and the Oilers as increasing the ‘chance things go sideways’?
Totally fair, and also par for the course.
I expect, at least on some level, he and his agent are trying to extract more money or find a possible offer sheet as a hammer. That’s just a thought on my part, but I’ve said for some time this could go long ala Ethan Bear and Ryan McLeod.
Except more high stakes.
However, that’s not what you were saying in your post.
All I was saying is that if Holland grinds Bouchard, Evan and his agent should insist in a one year deal to take him to a higher cap era and I believe arbitration status.
Do you disagree?
I think it benefits Bouchard to sign a one-year deal. Oilers will try for two. That’s par for the course imo for such a strong rfa. I do think it’ll take some time because the player and agent may wait to see if there’s an OS out there.
Even the threat of one could be effective.
The team looks great, it’s go time! Curious about Janmark at center is that a serious thought, would be cool if he could do it.
janmark has not played meaningful center mins for a long time.
We need a 4th line NHL center. How is this option:
“If the Oilers would instead prefer more of a gritty bottom-six-style forward, Noah Gregor may be the best fit. The 24-year-old, who grew up near Edmonton, recently went unqualified by the San Jose Sharks after a season in which he had 10 goals and 17 points in 57 games.
While Gregor’s offensive skills aren’t anything to marvel at, he is strong in his own zone and provides great speed to a lineup. On top of that, he would command a near-league-minimum deal, which would be highly beneficial for an Oilers team that is very cap strapped.”
I mentioned Gregor as a potential option when the list of unqualified’s came out.
He hasn’t really played center at the NHL level though (58 face offs in 120 games the last 2 seasons).
I wasn’t thinking about him to play center.
OK, the original post you replied to was suggesting Gregor as an option for Oilers 4th line center.
Nope, just as an option to add to the forward depth – another player between Drake Caggiulia and the Oilers’ lineup (although I did suggest him well before Drake was signed) given the need for some replacements in the bottom six. He can compete with the likes of Lavoie – he is more established and shouldn’t cost any more on the cap (well, maybe a tiny bit).
It stinks for JP to need his hips repaired again but I don’t think skating is the reason for his struggles
How can it not be a major factor? Not that he’d be an all star but
LT how much extra $ are in your Oilers lineup?
Running 22 is obviously preferred, but we saw them run 21 for stretches last year iirc
$382,500
Its tough to know what the lines might look like in Bako but, from history, I think we know that the fresh rookie pros will likely need to earn the trust of the coach and their way up the lineup. Look at the likes of Philp and Tulio last season – limited roles and ice to start last season but, by season’s end, Philp was getting 1C time and Tulio, while kind of all over, had some PP1 and legit impact role deployment.
I expect that Tulio and Bourgault will get pushes up the lineup, Savoie will earn that on merit. The likes of Chiasson and Petrov will need to earn it and it will take time.
No doubt Holloway and Broberg are on their way.
We can blame Ken Hitchcock and his “I can fix him” for that.
Unfortunately, Jesse was born with this hip condition that obviously even the doctors can’t repair permanently. Hopefully he’s already made enough money to sit back and take it easy the rest of his life.
That’s fair but I can still blame Ken Hitchcock for Jesse not playing more games in the AHL that season.
I still do.
Me thinks there is a lot more to Hitchcock’s statement. He had a handshake deal with Chiarelli in the summer to parachute into Edmonton the moment Todd M struggled.
Todd did not want Jessie on the roster, Chiarelli did. Hitchcock lands ready to fully support the struggling GM. Brings back Jessie with intention to prove Todd wrong and make him into a player. Hitchcock knew his coaching style was never going to fix a struggling Fin with limited English, not a chance.
Hitchcock was Chiarelli’s last chance. Chiarelli was Hitchcock’s last chance behind the bench.
Yup – truth be told, Yamamoto goes higher in a re-draft of that first round.
For the most part, there is a dearth of impact for those drafted after him in range. The only two in range that are ahead of him are Jake O. and Jason Robertson – yes, two high impact players but they were both ranked below Yamo on pretty much all lists and I don’t recall anyone screaming for those players at the time….
Yamo is likely to provide value to the Kraken for $1.5MM and could earn himself another solid contract after this season.
What happens if the Oilers take Jake Oettinger instead of Yamamoto. Since it’s national Yamamoto tooting day he did have the benifit of playing with the 2 best Centres in the league.
Hey Reja, correct me if I’m wrong, but do you not like Yamamoto as an NHL player?
The jury is still out on this
Did Yamo beat the tar out of you at mini golf? Run over your marmot? Take a family member out for a nice seafood dinner and never called them again?
Playing with Draisaitl and McDavid is such a damned if you do or damned if you don’t situation. If the player produces with McDavid and Drai the player gets zero credit for it and if the player’s production drops, it’s all their fault.
Yamamoto had the benefit of playing with the 2 best Centres in the league because he was able to play with them. We have seen times where McDavid and Drai are given wingers who produced even less than Yamamoto did. I also realize that Yamamoto was expected to produce more given his contract, but still, Yamamoto is an NHL quality player.
What happens if the Oilers got Oettinger instead? Well, what if Oettinger doesn’t play well with Edmonton in this hypothetical because Dallas and Edmonton’s defensive structures are different. Maybe Oettinger would have thrived in Dallas’ but not Edmonton’s.
Yamamoto failed miserably in hte playoffs four years in a row. I gave him the benefit of the doubt on his ELC. I don’t go FULL GODOT10 on players earning under one million.
What if the Oilers would have drafted Carter Hart in 2016 instead of Puljujarvi?
We can ask the question but it doesn’t mean the premise of it was reasonable…..
You keep saying Yamamoto was the best bet at 22 in a redraft 32 G.M’s would pick Jake Oettinger. The only reason the Oilers took Yamamoto was the previous year miss on Debrincat and the boasting by Yamamoto on how good he was.The league started drafting vertically challenged skilled forwards and they were hitting. Yamamoto was a miss in my books he took someone’s position that would of scored more and would of been more defensive conscious especially in the Playoffs.
No, that’s not what I said.
I said he was a good pick at 22 and would go higher than 22 in a re-draft, which he would.
I also stated that there were only two players drafted in the range after him that would have been better – two players that were ranked below him on pretty much all lists and which I don’t recall anyone screaming for at the time.
I know your grieving but he’s gone he’s now playing for the enemy. Yamamoto had the Willy Wonka Golden Ticket and he fuked it up.
Grieving?
Because I don’t throw vitriol at the player and cite that a player with a 20-goal season in NHL (and a 30 game run with a PPG) as having stone hands? You infer alot of things that aren’t true.
In fact (1) I almost always sided with Jesse over Yamo in the “great debate” and (2) for years now I’ve cited that when the Oilers have enough depth to play Yamo in the 3rd line, they will be able to contend for the cup.
The blog’s author wrote a paragraph on the player and his draft, I provide my opinion thereon and I would suggest that maybe its you that need not engage in topics about the player who is playing for the enemy.
As much as you wish upon a star Yamamoto will never score 20 again. After the I’m a Yankee Doodle dandy bounce Yamamoto will end up in the Swiss league playing with Hass and Kahun are maybe the Swedish league with Rattie and J.P.
It will come down to health for Yamamoto. His NHL career is 244 games in and he averages 16.8 goals per 82 games. He is 24. KY will need some luck, and find a way to play on a skill line, but his lack of power-play opportunity in Edmonton (just six of 50 goals with the man advantage) means there’s an massive opportunity for a goal-scoring spike.
A fine player. Health and the cap lost him his Edmonton job.
LT: you are a windbag 🙂
very funny as always 🙂
I like this team too. Let’s revisit something.
2021-22. Top team in the Western Conference? COLORADO
2022-233. Top team in the Western Conference? VEGAS
Edmonton has been prone to slow starts the last few years, with blistering finishes. Given Ekholm in the lineup from opening night, I would like to see Edmonton start strong and be consistent right through the season and land the #1 seed in the West.
I know, I know. The #1 seed doesn’t guarantee sh*t. But the last 2 seasons the #1 seed got arguably the worst team in the playoffs for their 1st round matchup. Colorado smoked Nashville in a sweep. Vegas smoked the Jets in 5.
Start on time. Win Cup.
That is all.
I firmly somewhat believe being seeded above VEG would’ve helped. Just one more available, marginal advantage in a very closely contended series.
— The oil had a difficult playoff format. In Cali Vegas away from home from around April 26th for 2 weeks
— Their first game back home was a scheduled loss as a result (lots of stats on first game back from road trip results awful)
— Had they been seeded higher might have changed things.
— The two wins we had were dominating: that’s got to be very helpful for them next year.
— There are about 5 teams next year that are likely to win Cup based on precedence of virtually all Cup winners. Oil are one of those teams.
The Oilers need to rid themselves of December…….
I can’t believe the Oilers took Holloway when Mercer was on the board. THIS IS TOTAL MISMANAGEMENT BY HOLLAND et al.! #FIRETHEMALL
lol. I do agree that being critical of the Oilers not taking Mercer is a stretch, he wasn’t ranked No. 10 on any list aside from mine (that I’m aware). There are those who will be critical, but I had Mavrik Bourque at 11 and he hasn’t popped yet either.
I was just trying to continue the (faux) response from Riesen to Believe a couple weeks ago, where you were surprised by the lack of rage on Mercer-Holloway…
Ah, well, I tried to start a revolution but didn’t print enough pamphlets, so hardly anyone showed up.
I mean, except for your mum and her boyfriend, who we hate.
😀
I stopped in at development camp yesterday to watch the forwards and goalies and was impressed with the professionalism of the staff and enjoyed watching the drills.
A few things stood out to me.
Will be interested to follow these young guns over the coming months.
As a footnote, samuel jonsson looked good in net from my limited viewing.
Thanks for the insights! Specifically curious about the fwd invitees Stonehouse and Verrault, or do they fall into the poor skating bunch you mentioned?
i didnt notice stonehouse or verriault either good or bad… similarily mazura, chiasson, and berglund who all seemed just a little invisible. was just drills so their positional work and etc couldnt be shown.
Awesome, thanks! I think with Stonehouse in particular it is probably hard for what he does really well to show in drills. Ideally he’s not agitating outside of games haha.
Thanks for this
Thank you for this – much appreciated.
Truth be told, Bourgault SHOULD stand out (and then Tulio, Savoie, etc.) but nice to hear he (they) did.
I’m intrigued to see how LaChane performs in college. He scored alot of goals last year but I think he was akin to an over-ager in the CHL…..
Haas! 🤣
you mean the more handsome mark schiefele stunt double?
ICYMI:
If Woodcroft trusted McLeod more, the Oilers may have beaten the Golden Knights
https://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2023/07/if-woodcroft-trusted-mcleod-more-they.html
Thanks for linking in your piece LT.
Also,
I’ll be on Stauffer’s show at 1:35 to talk about the piece
No worries. You do good work WHEN you work. 🙂
One post every 19 months, just like they pay me to.
GAE!
GAETAN!
GAETAN HAAS!
Ah. This gem hadn’t yet loaded when I made my comment. GAETEN indeed.
HAAS. du Haas mich.
oilers legend, i will never forget his penalty shot with his stick tickling the rafters.
his slot protection was refreshing as was his speed, shame he had no offense at the nhl level
Haas-based handles will be de rigeur as an obscure, deep cut reference on the LT blog 40 years from now.
I’d prefer a 22-year old Gaetan Duchesne.
Man he was good.