Xavier Bourgault impressed yesterday at the Edmonton Oilers orientation camp, no surprise from a quality prospect destined to land in the NHL in the next year or so.
The team signed Olivier Rodrigue yesterday. He was one of four RFA’s the team needs to sign, with Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod and Raphael Lavoie still to come. Rodrigue is one of the prospects in the system who is matricualating toward NHL work.
If you’re looking ahead at next summer, and searching for a hero to rise from these streets and save the Oilers from cap peril, Bourgault and Rodrigue are interesting candidates.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Assessing Edmonton Oilers’ remaining roster needs ahead of NHL free agency
- Lowetide: Realistic draft options for an Edmonton Oilers team low on picks
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 3.0
- Lowetide: Why Connor Brown is a fit for the Edmonton Oilers in free agency
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- Lowetide: 4 impact QMJHL centres for Oilers to target late in 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- DNB: Five burning Edmonton Oilers questions ahead of the NHL Draft and free agency
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers roster construction missing one final piece
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
NHL READY NOW
Raphael Lavoie is both NHL-ready and waiver-eligible, so it’s full speed ahead. He will need to impress in training camp and preseason. That may not be easy, there’s a chance general manager Ken Holland invites some good options on PTO’s and there’s still time to sign competition for the roster spot Lavoie will be pursuing this fall. His NHLE is 82 games, 16-13-29. Solid.
A YEAR OR LESS
Xavier Bourgault surprised me with his range of skills, but didn’t deliver the kind of offense expected. His final junior season suggested he would score 21-23-44 in 62 AHL games using the Gabriel Desjardins’ NHLE rates (albeit from 20 years ago). In fact, he went 62, 13-21-34, so less offense but more range as an outscorer and special teams player. I like his future, expect a surge in offense, but don’t believe he’ll play in the NHL much (if at all) in the coming season. He will be the ask in many trade deadline conversations.
Maxim Berezkin might be ready now, he is tracking slightly behind Yegor Chinakhov of the Columbus Blue Jackets (who has played in 92 NHL games). Berezkin signed in Russia recently so won’t be coming over, but he’s ready or close.
Olivier Rodrigue turned a corner, and he could be ready to push for NHL time one year from now. Many things can change, including a strong year from Jack Campbell, but Rodrigue is a goaltender who was chosen in the second round of the 2018 draft and posted the ninth best save percentage (.912) in the AHL last season. The savings on a Skinner-Rodrigue tandem in terms of cap hit would be incredible. Found money.
Noel Hoefenmayer led Toronto Marlies defenders in goals, assists, points, shots, even-strength goals and assists, power-play goals and assists, shorthanded assists, and he was above average in even-strength goal share. His AHL career is just 89 games in length, and we don’t know what we don’t know, but the Oilers have seven established blue and then some candidates. Hoefenmayer is among the most intriguing.
Phil Kemp had the best even-strength goal differential among Oilers prospect defenders in Bakersfield a year ago, and he’s righthanded. Those are two strong arrows in his favour and I’m not certain there’s more he can deliver. The question in regard to being NHL-ready is foot speed. The only way to know is to deploy him for 20 games and see what kind of results he delivers. That won’t happen unless there’s an injury, but Kemp has done everything asked during his time in the AHL.
Cam Dineen is a puck-moving defenseman with chaos in his game. He is 25, and got clobbered in his one NHL look (14-29 goals at five-on-five in 34 games) but his rel numbers (Corsi, Fenwick, Shots) were positive. I don’t know if he’ll be an NHL player for a prolonged period, or even at all, but he is strong with the puck on his stick.
Ben Gleason is a much better skater than the rest of the blue mentioned here. That may be enough for him to win the day as Edmonton’s No. 8 defenseman. He has played a lot in the AHL for a man age 25, and my guess Gleason is as ready as he’ll ever be for a full NHL shot.
THE REST
Matvey Petrov is a real talent, and as he turns pro this fall all eyes will be on the young skill winger. Using the same Desjardins’ method above, he should be expected to score (assuming 72 games) 13-33-46 with the Bakersfield Condors this coming season. He’s another right-shot left-wing, one of these fellows is going to have to move over. Right-wing is the weaker position for Edmonton. Bruce McCurdy was at the rink yesterday and had some kind things to say about Petrov and others.
Tyler Tullio might be ready in a year or less, but it isn’t a clear case in my opinion. I like his style, his determination and at five-on-five he delivered solid numbers as an AHL rookie. There’s a part of my brain that is screaming “Liam Reddox” when Tullio is discussed. Reddox was billed as an agitator but at 5.10 he couldn’t build a career around it, and he wasn’t dynamic in any area. Reddox had to find a job behind Hall, Eberle, Paajarvi, Hemsky, Horcoff, Gagner, Cogliano, Omark, Jones and ahead of Steve MacIntyre, Zack Stortini, Ryan O’Marra, JF Jacques, Colin Fraser, Gilbert Brule. He couldn’t do it. Tullio, a better player, faces more of an uphill battle on a better overall team.
Carter Savoie is falling into that zone where people cheer for him, and he shows flashes, but there’s not enough happening to consider him a year or less away. Among the players in this portion of the conversation, he is the most likely to spike like mad and get a recall. Savoie’s skill, a ridiculous release, has exceptional value.
Jayden Grubbe has the kind of resume that you look at end then cipher the number of months it’ll take him to get to the NHL. A very safe bet to play NHL games, I think he’s going to need a couple of AHL seasons, maybe 100 games in Bakersfield, before he’s ready.
Max Wanner hasn’t played a game in pro yet, but he is the most complete defenseman bubbling under at this time. I wrote about him in the top-20 prospects (above) and think you’ll find some interesting things about him. Edmonton needs him now but will have to wait. My guess is two years.
Posters noted below that McLeod opting for arbitration shields him from offer sheets. But it also effectively shields Bouchard from offer sheets too – as the McLeod arbitration award opens up a 2nd buyout window for Holland. Although there’s little chance he uses the 2nd window to buyout Campbell, the option is there if it means matching a Bouchard offer sheet – and the other GM’s know it.
Therefore, I think the odds of a Bouchard offer sheet are basically zero, at least until that 2nd buyout window closes. That gives Holland quite a bit of breathing room to negotiate a bridge deal for Bouchard.
“In case of emergency, smash glass.”
Good summary.
I would almost prefer that a team offered Bouch $6M x 7 years, so that we could both lock in that contract and force the Oilers to buy out Campbell.
Some folks are worried about how much Bouchard’s bridge deal is going to cost this summer.
Some folks are worried how much the Oilers are adding to Bouchard’s next contract by bridging him.
Actually, most folks are probably (and should be) worried about both.
But I’m curious how much AAV people think is being added to Bouchard’s next deal by bridging him instead of going long now.
If the Oilers had the money, what would it take to get Bouchard to sign long-term right now? And what will it cost to sign Bouchard long-term 1 or 2 years from now?
If you’re making any guesses, please include the AAV and the # of years for the deal you’re envisioning.
A reminder that Bouchard is under team control (ie – an RFA) for 4 more seasons, then his UFA years start.
I’m not actually concerned with his next contract at all, but here are the comps as I see them:
Long term:
Sergachev 8 x $8.5M (25 years old)
Heiskanen 8 x $8.45M (21)
Quinn Hughes 6 x $7.85M (21)
Bridge:
Dobson 3 x $4M (22 years old)
Byram 2 x $3.85M (22)
Bouchard is 23 currently, so a little older than the others here save Sergachev.
Here are each players boxcars at time of signing
Hughes 129, 11-86-97 (0.75 P/GP)
Dobson 140, 17-55-72 (0.51 P/GP)
Sergachev 362, 36-138-174 (0.48 P/GP)
Bouchard 184, 23-66-89 (0.48 P/GP)
Byram 91, 15-28-43 (0.47 P/GP)
Heiskanen 205, 28-67-95 (0.46 P/GP)
I guess I would worry about an $8M+ AAV for Bouchard.
Beyond points/game, I’d think (hope) that ice time would also be a factor in the deal.
TOI/game in the platform seasons for those contracts:
Heiskanen 24:58
Hughes 22:48
Sergachev 22:28
—-
Byram 21:53
Dobson 21:28
—-
Bouchard 18:31
(Bouch did play 19:48 in 21-22, but that’s still well shy of the others)
Anyway thanks for the reply. We will see.
Bouchard is going to put up points, so his cost will be high no matter what. At a low end this player makes Klingberg / Tyson Barrie money at $4.1 – $4.5M, while a high-end point producer who can also defend, like John Carlson or Sergachev are well over $8M.
If you can lock in Bouchard based on his age RFA status for around $6M for 6 or 7 years, you could be looking at saving $2M on the cap on the back end of that contract. And as the cap goes up and beyond $90M, that is more likely a $9M player.
However, I think Holland wants to bridge Bouchard because the Oilers are unconvinced of his defensive acumen. This player may be more Klingberg than Sergachev. And if that’s the case you wring 3 value-contract RFA years, then flip him at peak value.
Yeah I agree with that valuation generally. I wonder whether you could even get him for term at $6M at this point though. He and his agent know he’s going to put up a scary number of points next season.
I don’t think we can infer what Holland thinks of the player from a bridge deal though. The situation dictates a bridge. Even at $6M Holland would need to trade Foegele and Kulak to fit that in. Whatever Holland thinks of the player I think it would still be a bridge.
Or buy out Campbell 🙂
Heh, and there goes your $2M in savings for the next 8 years. Did you even sign Bouchard for 8 years? 😉
McLeod filing for arbitration is absolutely the right thing to do. He has earned that right.
Interestingly though, depending on if they go to the end and what he ultimately gets, he may end up pushing his buddies off the team.
Yamo is already gone, and depending on contracts for McLeod and Bouch, Foegle may be the next one out the door for a cheaper replacement (eg. Zadina or Heinen?)
It was almost a certainty that he was going to file – its really just the next step in the process and, really, all it does is put a timeline on the process and shield him from an offer sheet.
The vast majority (like 90% plus) of arb filings don’t even get to the hearing and the player and team come to contract terms before hand – the highly likely case here as well.
Lavoie should of recieved some games last year. I’m all for D-men, Goalies and Centres getting ripe in the AHL but when it come’s to left and right wingers they can be used as cheap labour and produce as well. I don’t get the way they’ve handled Benson, Marody, Holloway and now Lavoie. Benson and Marody may of actually had a meaningful career with another organization. If Holloway and Lavoie aren’t given a fair chance this year their fate may end up like Benson and Marody where you can see the life sucked out of both players.
Love the kids gumption but Benson’s skating never reached NHL level. Oilers gave him every opportunity.
edit: otherwise in agreement
Marody has never played a poor game in the NHL, but he didn’t get many chances to show what he can do. Benson had more of a chance, but my goodness he doesn’t shoot much for a winger.
Everything from his skating. The game speeds up so so so fast for him in the NHL he can’t find space for his other skills.
What’s the difference between guys like Marody and Benson and someone like Lazar? Other than Lazar’s played 400+ (highly ineffective) games in the NHL?
Good question, one I’m guessing you could extend across every industry.
Marody also had slow boots?
This pisses me off Marody was a good Soldier give the young man a few games. Holland still runs it like there’s no cap you need cheap Wingers to offset the bigger contracts on your team and Winger is the position to do it.
Of note, the Flyers signed Marody to a 2-year, 2-way contract mid July last season.
They waived him in early October, he cleared and played the entire season in the AHL.
His fresh start with a new org (actually the org that drafted him) didn’t give him an NHL game last season and he turns 27 before the calendar flips.
Perhaps Ken Holland wasn’t, and isn’t, the issue with Marody not being in the NHL?
Holland was the G.M when his Coach Babcock scratched Mike Modano robbing him of reaching 1500 games he ended up with 1499. The benching of Modano by Babcock was done for no particular reason than too Fuk over one hell of a player. Every team has its moments but this one by Holland’s Coach was pure Filth.
Modano has specifically stated that Holland didn’t find out Babcock had scratched him till he arrived at the rink just before the game, too late to do anything about it. He only blames Babcock.
Holland is the guy who brought Demers up from Bakersfield to play 700. He was also fine when Woody played the college goalie at the end of the game.
Most of us get softer as we age hell even Gordon Gekko isn’t so dog-eat-dog these days. I figured 5 years before Babcock would be back in the game. I bet Holland flipped a coin heads Woody tails Babcock. If Tippett was just now getting replaced I have no doubt it would of been Babcock as the new Oiler Coach.
Holland’s coach indulged in some world class ass hattery. No doubt.
Thank you for the random factoid……
“Every man must carry his own cross”
Holloway was very average for the first half of last season – his historical inconsistent self. 9 points in 20 games and many of them on one heater. Not overly impactful when not on a heater.
He was excellent in the 2nd half but how would you have called him up. The Oilers were absolutely rolling late in the season, the best team in the NHL, winning night after night and chasing down 1st place. They had no cap room to add an extra and why would they alter the lineup that was rolling down the stretch?
—————————-
How was Holloway not given a chance? He started the season in the top 6. He made multiple mistakes leading to goals against and was moved down.
3-4 times through the year he was moved back up the lineup – same result with mistakes and the same mistakes he previously made (which coaches tend to not like).
The dwindling ice time in the 2nd half wasn’t great and they probably should have moved him to the AHL quicker but they had many injuries and noone else to call up.
Marody and Benson were slow looking when they did get some time on the big club, granted Marody’s time was short. Benson had lots of audition time in 2021-22 season but on fourth line, looked slow and didn’t seem to want to shoot. Sounds like the oilers people Aka Jay and the boys , who evaluate player had similar take on it. But Holloway did also have a long look on the big club as we know, and he was much faster etc, and looked like he would belong, except he kept making those mistakes we talk about more than they wanted .. I think they expect better from him this year and so does the player. Will be fun to watch !
Sorry, first part of the above post was about Lavoie, not Holloway.
Can big Vince get better? This was his first taste of NHL. In a usual development curve there is the taste of the top league, then some time away to savor, digest, then improve. Vince getting a little bit quicker, a little more comfortable, and as the league slows for him he may seize that third pair dman spot and hold it for 5 years. Didn’t Chara take some time?? hmmm
Chara was playing 22 minutes a games by the time he turned 22. At the equivalent age the Desharnais was this past season age 26-27) Chara finished 2nd in the Norris.
Chara was 24 for his first season with the Sens. Both he and Redden were getting 18 even strength minutes a night, and 3 minutes of PK time. Redden was 4 min of PP, Chara 1 min. His 30 +/- lead the team. That’s a high quality 24 y/o.
Sure, the Norris (31?) and Cup (33?) came later, but he was quality for a long time before then.
I think his biggest improvements were between 23 and 27.
I think we’ve already seen those big improvements with Vinny. He came from a long way back to become a useful NHLer. Vinny’s 24 y/o season included some ECHL time. I think the reasonable take is we’re pretty close to peak Vinny right now at 27.
I’m worried Vinny is going to get worse. Who’s to say what we just witness wasn’t just a heater for the 27 yr old??
Lets not forget that Vinny was about as sheltered competition wise as one can get at evens last season.
14.5% of TOI vs. elites – and he got killed.
Over 50% of his TOI vs. grits (where he was near 85% goals share and made his hey).
I hope he can – great story, great guy, has a presence out there, helps the PK, etc.
I believe Vinny has room to grow (somewhat), and for all his struggles I feel he showed that during the postseason. It was just buried under too much too soon too fast.
Agree – Vinny reminds me a bit of Matt Greene. He got thrown into the deep end during a Cup run and just wasn’t ready. But he would keep developing and eventually become a mainstay of the Kings Cup teams.
We need to be patient with Vinny … defenseman his size who can play a regular shift in the NHL are few and far between.
I was meaning to post and give Godot some props as Stauffer has been talking about giving Broberg reps on the right side up the lineup.
I will now pat my own back (and the back of some others as well – wasn’t just me), as Bob’s deployment in that regard lines up with my personal thoughts:
Bob Stauffer
@Bob_Stauffer
·
33m
What do u think?
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Broberg
Kulak-Ceci
Desharnais
Worth a Look?
Always worth a look.
My opinion is that Bouchard has high value, but will still struggle to defend. If Ceci is healthy, I don’t see him losing his spot to Bouchard.
Another question then. Can Bouchard feast on third pair with Kulak?
Can the Oilers afford what Bouchard is going to make to have him play the PP and 3rd pair is the question that raises.
He’s likely going to be in “the threes” this season so I would say, yes but I also don’t think it makes sense. He should get many many many McDavid minutes at 5 on 5 .
Bouchard is a legit #1 D right now. He’s not playing on a 3rd pair.
I’m fairly certain they will start the season with Nurse/Ceci but we’ll have to wait and see.
I’m not concerned about Bouch’s defence – he has already shown development through the course of last season. His intensity and urgency in puck retrieval has increased, his battle and physicality has increased. He continues to have issues recognizing danger in the defensive zone but, of course, he’s young and developing, just coming off his ELC. He is known as a very smart player and will continue to learn and develop.
This is (in my opinion) the correct alignment for the coming season. Ceci traded next summer.out of necessity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ag14Ao_xO4c
I recall when Ekholm came to Edmonton he specifically mentioned Broberg as a fellow Swede and would mentor him. No better time for the mentorship to begin then the start of a new season.
Bro needs to be harder against the boards for this to happen.
Better positioning.
Maybe in H2, but not right away. He’s got a ways to go still
A couple weeks ago Stauffer floated the Godot10 alignment, where he had Broberg on his off-side, paired with Nurse.
It’s summer, he’s going to float a lot of notions to generate engagement.
I did like Bourgaults’ game quite a bit in what I have seen. He’s subtle, he’s not overly aggressive but he seems to have good results along the boards and finding pucks. He was very good at his position. As far as positionally, he might be the best pure right winger available.
I think the club is high on Lavoie, but Lavoie is one of these players who needs time to adjust. Like Samurokov. And slow out the gate, strong finisher. Certainly AHL time will benefit Bourgault, but I am picking him to stand out in preseason and make the decision to send him back more about waiver management that game contributions.
McLeod has filed for arbitration (not a surprise).
——————
PuckPedia@PuckPedia
Players must file for arbitration by 5pm ET today.
Some players we confirmed have filed for arbitration:
Ryan McLeod
Kurashev
Howden
Frederic
Duhaime
The full 22 player list.
https://www.nhlpa.com/news/1-22514/22-players-elect-salary-arbitration
What is the line in the sand in regard to what the prospect pipeline has to deliver to be considered a success?
One NHL player graduated and one NHL trade candidate?
We may get close to this with aggressive and creative procurement. Doubtfully obtain the top end talent though. But then we can also plan on at least one good free agent signing, and prey on some cap casualties popping free.
Oilers have a lot of high end, talented players still youthful, and with a decent core 12, they can afford to move slower than in the past.
The Kostin trade was a big win, finding a gem and then losing it due to cap. There are always players out of favor. I like Hogslander this off season. Or Marchessault was available for very little when he left Florida.
I like the Drake C signing a lot. An incomplete player, but a real Buzzsaw with lots of intensity. He overcame shortcomings to make it to the NHL. If we want players to develop, and we want to boost 3-4 round picks, lets get them experienced NHL players to play with in the AHL level.
Offense will be hard to find, but then perhaps as the Oilers offence comes down, we can add these solid middle six players and boost the defensive game.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Vladimir Tarasenko has new representation: JP Barry & Pat Brisson of CAA. What this means is no deal in place with any team, but process re-sets today.
FinSport
@FinSport_
Jesse Puljujärvi is staying in the NHL confirmed. He is not going back to Europe says Puljujärvi’s agent Markus Lehto. Puljujärvi has received offers from many NHL teams.
https://twitter.com/FinSport_/status/1676547962602680320?s=20
As the old joke goes . . .
How can you tell an agent is lying?
#3OV picks will get many opportunities. Olli Jokinen was on his 3rd team before he hit. Took Mike Keenan to turn him into an NHL player. Jokinen was a worse bust than Puljujarvi until then.
Jesse is still basically on his first team. In Carolina he was injured. And Mike Keenan…er…Babcock is back.
That is different than “Puljujärvi has received offers from many NHL teams.”
That’s used car salesman talk.
What a lame attempt almost to the point of embarrassing him and his client.
JPs representation lets him down again. Between all the Player-Team finger pointing it was always rumoured his demands were limited AHL time (despite a chance to get used to the big ice) and no bottom 6 time once in the bigs (to take advantage of his skill set). None of this felt like player or team motivated imo, especially now.
pay him 800000 and you have a decent 4th liner
The Mike Kesselring replacement (i.e. I’ve been talking about this guy for a year plus now) although I think Kesselring has a higher ceiling.
Lets not forget, Wanner was a stand-out at rookie camp last season and I expect he will be again this season and he’ll get 1-2 exhibition games before he’s sent down.
Are you sure you’ve been talking about this guy? I haven’t seen it….
Pretty sure, in fact, positive.
Wanner is more of a defender than Kesselring. They both have plus shots, though.
Yes, I agree – one reason why i posited that Kesselring has the higher ceiling.
Will he get PP time in Phoenix?
Beats me. Ghost and Chychrun are gone but Durzi is in (and Valimaki there).
I have not watched nearly as much as you have OP, but there seems to be something about this Wanner kid. I think he turns into a blueline bully, and combined with other skills, he earns a greater contract than Mike K. Wishing Mike the best as well of course.
As far as a bully goes – he absolutely blew some forwards up last season.
As far as citing Lavoie as “NHL ready”, i just can’t quite lock that in. He’s done what he needs to do to put himself in the conversation to compete for a job and we know he’ll get that opportunity during camp. What we don’t know is, even if he “lights up exhibition season”, what that would mean, if anything, as far as NHL readiness.
He’s proven ready to be given a real opportuhity to compete for an NHL job but NHL readiness, in my opinion, can only be proven in regular season NHL games. I’m pretty sure he’ll play those this season, will it start in October?
——————————–
The signing of the likes of Lane Pederson and Drake C. shelter Bourgault from being “rushed” to the NHL. Now, of course, if he blows the doors off the AHL and earns a call-up on merit, that would be aces but the tweener signings allow him to stay in the AHL when injuries at the NHL pile up if, of course, its determined that its still the best place for his development.
That’s okay, we all have differing opinions. Makes things interesting. For me, Lavoie was a bully in the second half of the season, pushing his way into good spots. It’s fairly rare for an entry-level contract holder to play that way, and the actual NHL rewards that kind of edge. Edmonton needs that kind of player and Lavoie, for me, is NHL-ready.
The great thing is we get to see who is right this fall. Competition (more signings) could impact, but I think Holland would look to trade the asset if Lavoie doesn’t make the team.
It would be foolish to try to slide Lavoie through waivers so he will break camp with the Oilers. It’s time to see want he can do, even if it is in a very sheltered role.
Definite “waiver risk” but, at the end of the day, he very likely would clear.
Lets not forget the more famous names than Raphael Lavoie that clear every single year in the first week of October. Not that many get claimed. Most teams have their own Raphael Lavoie, right?
I mean, if he makes the team and they put him on waivers, its a 23 year old former 2nd round pick with zero NHL games than has been cut yet again by his NHL team. Are teams lining up to claim that player and keep them on their NHL roster over their own NHL prospects?
Absolutely he would be claimed. There’s 6-8 teams out of the playoffs before the season even starts. The Oilers invest three years of development and have a player on the cusp on breaking in and some bottom feeder team is not going to jump on that opportunity?
We can disagree but its not an “absolutely” at all in my opinion. Most teams have their own “Ralph Lavoie” and many of them get waived each October and slide through.
The risk of claim is definitely not zero but history shows us it would be fairly unlikely.
We (not necessarily you and me but the community) had this conversation last year re: Samorukov.
With that said, as of now, the other options would be the likes of Pederson and Drake so he’s probably on the team in any event (subject to a horrid camp or another acquisition – which could make things interesting).
I don’t think Holland would waive him. A trade for a draft pick is more likely if Lavoie doesn’t make the team. He’s 6-4, 200, scored 25 goals and ran over people a year ago.
He’s NHL-ready.
Yes, I agree, Lavoie started to use his body as an asset – in puck retrieval mainly, but also to create space, etc.
I agree that he’s done everything he can recently to prove he’s ready for the NHL shot.
Of course, we’ve seen lots and lots and lots of player excel at the AHL level and simply not be able to gain traction at the NHL level – all sorts of different types of players and, for all sorts of reasons.
I am hopeful that Lavoie is indeed ready, right now, to take a regular shift in the NHL, however, I can’t say he is until, well, he shows it – I’ve (we’ve) been fooled many times in the past.
Arrows up though!
lol. OP, I know. I know you can’t agree. You don’t have to keep typing it. We disagree.
To me Lavoie is ready. He’s 23 soon enough. He may not be ready for top 6, but if he can’t handle 4th line duty at this point, his chances of a career are slim. I think he can do it, if the org values talented hockey over the 4th line just being used to keep some PKers legs warmed up, occasionally
The biggest part of this is the Oilers coaches and Holland. There’s green bananas and there’s bananas too mushy even for banana bread. If the green banana is more useful and better fruit than the ancient one, use it. The results won’t be worse, and there’s ripening
Hi very well might be ready. We’ll know when he plays actual NHL games.
But IS he ready?
Don’t know – impossible to at this point – we will have more visibility in October!!!!
LT, your title, A RATIONAL LOOK AT PROSPECT ETA, made me laugh. You’re one of the few that could make that claim with a straight face, so kudos. The vast majority of us are anything but rational when it comes to projecting prospects.
Borg a lock for McD’s wing.
Book it!
It struck me this morning why Holland recently opined that he’d like to have ~$1M cap space going into the season. Could be he’s thinking of accruing cap space for Patrick Kane so he can sign him mid-season like he did with Evander.
Although offense isn’t the #1 need on the team, adding P Kane would effectively shift one of Hyman, Nuge or Brown to the 3rd line, giving the Oilers the balance and depth necessary to overwhelm the Knights (especially if Vegas is limited to just $83.5M next year like everyone else).
Perhaps we’ll see the front office juggle a 21-man roster until Christmas in order to make this happen. I certainly wouldn’t be opposed.
Does P Kane help where they need help? I don’t see how
I generally agree with you, but two of the four losses to Vegas were by one goal. One extra goal for would have been just as useful one less goal against.
With Kane you’re probably looking at both, which is my issue
As ArmchairGM said, his teams have almost always had a better goal differential with him on the ice than off, so he’s helping more than hurting.
I already said I generally agree with you that P. Kane isn’t the #1 thing the Oilers need. That said, the Oilers would almost certainly be a better team with Kane than without Kane.
If he’s available in January for just money (the meager amount the Oilers will have) adding him to the team would make a tremendous amount of sense.
Depends on where you think the need is. Outscoring at 5v5? Yes, yes he does. Kane had a positive GF% Rel in each of his past 5 seasons and has averaged 2.11 P/60 over the past 3. That would be a welcome addition next to Draisaitl.
I looked at more stats and methinks Patty was a bit lucky with the Rangers:
Playoffs 5v5: CF% 43.3, FF% 45.5, SF% 47.2, xGF% 40.9, HDCF% 31.25, PDO 1.049, On IceSV% 9.79 GF% 75.00, 3 GF 1 GA
He had by far more N Zone starts, and more O Zone than D Zone starts, so they were trying to have that line drive play into the O Zone I suppose and sheltering them. Looks to me like they got caved, got lucky and popped a few, with the goalie saving their bacon
I’m not sure what the point of focusing on a 7 game playoff sample is, though he was surely lucky in those 7 games.
If you look back, Kane has had a better GF% than xGF% in 14 of his 16 NHL seasons though. He’s one of those players who really does drive goal scoring more than possession.
The 5v5 on ice results for the 5 seasons ArmchairGM referenced:
18-19
Kane on 84-67 55.6%GF
Kane off 99-117 45.8%GF
19-20
Kane on 59-41 59.0%GF
Kane off 88-108 44.9%GF
20-21
Kane on 47-45 51.1%GF
Kane off 55-78 41.4%GF
21-22
Kane on 65-67 49.2%GF
Kane off 78-125 38.4%GF
22-23
Kane on 49-58 45.8%GF
Kane off 98-132 42.6%GF
The Blackhawks have just been getting eviscerated with Kane off the ice for years. Suggesting he wouldn’t help because he’s an offensive player is not reasonable IMO.
VGK are already $2.2 million over the cap and still have $2.8 million in LTIR space as long as Robin Lehner does not play.
One would imagine McCrimmon already knows the outcome of that decision.
I think its about accruing cap space and making an in-season acquisition (or a few) but I don’t imagine that its Patrick Kane that he’s currently thinking about.
No matter what use he makes of the accrued cap space (even if he doesn’t spend it during the season and some bonuses can be fit in at year’s end), Holland and Bill Scott better be doing everything they can to maximize accrual now that they are not in LTIR and they can.
The likes of Holloway and Broberg re-assigned on off-days, etc.
The can is being kicked to next year. Keep it going, sign Bouchard and McLeod to cheap 1 year deals. We need a 22 man roster with injury call-up ability. Lots of prospects need cups of coffee. Just my opinion.
Speaking of the prospects and development camp, FYI for all, Bruce McCurdy has an excellent post up at the Cult of Hockey detailing yesterday’s on-ice sessions. A great read (in my opinion).
Click the link in LT’s post above!
I need to see one more move before I’m confident in the roster, and that’s the addition of a legit C for the 4th line. Like a real one. That way there can be some competition between the bottom 6 for icetime. Lavoie, Holloway, Ryan, Janmark….. heck even MacLeod and Foegele. These guys should all be pushing each other for jobs all year. Especially Lavoie, who shouldn’t even be in the conversation until he earns a spot.
Having said that, I have no idea how they can fit a legit C under the cap.
Its really only J. Toews coming back for under $1MM (maybe even league min) for a chance to win the cup. We know Keith has been tasked with being in JT’s ear to try and sell it.
If that does happen, and I put the chances around 20%, I would think its mid-late summer after Toews has had the opportunity to hockey train and see if his health/body are in shape for an NHL season (in addition to his mind).
It’s hard to believe that Tullio, Petrov and Wanner were plucked from so deep into the draft .. so far they look so good. It will be fun to follow the AHL progress with them, Grubbe and Bourgault to cheer for, along with the additions that have been made this far n the summer . I know the cupboard is getting empty, but they have done a decent job bringing in prospects worth following even though we have only one of our first round picks left in the AHL.
Petrov being drafted with the pick that Dubas refused to take for the rights to Hyman (which would have allowed the Oilers to sign him to the 8th year) as “it wasn’t enough” and he’d rather lose him for nothing for some “stand my ground” reason.
The Oilers get Petrov and, for me, I prefer NOT having that 8th year even if the cap hit would have come down $150K or so.
20% of the Current LHD UFA list have ties to the Oilers, this includes Oscar Klefbom.
The leftorium’s death rattle.
I think today is the arb filing deadline for RFAs – I presume that McLeod files if they don’t get him signed in the next few hours. Just a step in the process.
If he does, that opens the door for a second buyout window for the Oil, though I really dont see an obvious candidate.
Only $4M+ AAVs are eligible to be bought out in the 2nd window right? (if that window even happens)
Campbell appears to be the only candidate who’s remotely plausible, and doing that now with 8 years of consequences would seem to me a really extreme measure (though I know some think it’s the right course).
As an aside, it would be interesting if McLeod does NOT file for arbitration today. I had the impression from last summer he had a lot of trust in the team so perhaps he doesn’t feel the need. Of course, he probably will file.
Unrelated, but it also occurred to me that not buying out Campbell could be a counter point to the Connor Brown bonus money in terms of signaling Holland’s final year as GM.
Yes, I’ve mentioned the second buyout window many many times.
All but zero chance they would use it – obviously the only one would be Campbell and that would be ridiculously silly.
Lets also not forget there is a $4MM threshold for using the 2nd buyout window – they couldn’t even use it on the likes of Foegele or Ceci even if they wanted to (which they wouldn’t).
Excited to watch the Condors this season.
The defence will be able to move the puck.
I presume Niemo, Dinesen, Gleason on the left and Kemp, Noel H and Wanner on the right.
Woodcroft is going to have to marble the youth into his lineup.
Broberg, Holloway, and Lavoie are going to need to be given roles, and the coach is going to have to stick with the plan through, at least, the first 20 games.
I don’t believe we need any veteran additions to the bottom-6 at this time. They should plan to run:
Foegele – McLeod – Holloway
Janmark – Ryan – Lavoie
I agree. If you want cheap labor, you have to give them a chance. Holloway should be ready to be a Net Positive contributor.
Broberg needs to play so they can keep him and have him good for playoffs, or trade chip at the deadline.
Lavoie is a wild card. I haven’t seen enough of him to know where he might land or what he can contribute.
I do like this bottom six. Either one of these lines, but probably the Ryan line, needs to be able to play against one of the opponents top lines in the playoffs. This will be a major difference in pushing the Oilers to the promise land. Not sure Lavoie is the answer for a stout checking line but maybe. That spot can be tweaked in time for the playoffs.
Ideally a similar model to last year without the implosion of Campbell hemorrhaging points causing a bit of a scramble in the new year. Let the youngins get at bats (Bro when healthy, Holloway, Lavoie, technically still Bouch and Skinner ymmv), then add at the deadline if they aren’t ready for the big time just yet to either replace (Bjug bottom 6) or supplement (Ek with Bouch).
First in the West would’ve been a boon last season but it isn’t always the case.
I’m not so sure, Lavoie might be considered a green banana. It won’t be easy for any young players in this line up, the exceptions being Broberg & Holloway. If, or when injuries occur, he might get a tap on the shoulder. It’s Stanley cup or bust.
A tough Kevin MacClelland type at 4c would be the answer.
Lavoie will be given every opportunity at camp to earn a shot in the regular season. Holland himself said so. Some green are right on the cusp of becoming ripe, if you don’t put them in the fridge.
I don’t want Zack McKewan signed, no i don’t.
I’ll take a healthy and committed J. Toews though, at under $900k (no performance bonuses).
I would prefer Nuge at 3C and whoever has a hot hand (Foegele to start) in the top 6.
That leaves the possibility of 2 outscoring lines, each with a heady player on it, in the bottom 6:
Janmark – Nuge _Holloway
Ryan – McLeod – Lavoie
Ryan is off-wing, but as LT says, he’s smart enough to make things work.
Would Woody commit to playing that 4th line real minutes, like 8-10 5 on 5 minutes per game. McLeod will get some PK time, but no real PP time, and he can’t be playing less than that (in my opinion).
Also, I would note, Lavoie played LW almost exclusively last season so, if those are the 4th line wingers, you can swap them.
I think rolling 4 lines and ensuring the bottom 4 can get real minutes could be the objective this year. Keep the top six fresh and healthy for playoffs. There is always the desire to load up when down a goal or two, but with a stronger D core, goal suppression should improve. it would be great if Dria and McD could get less than 20 in most nights.
Swapping wingers is no issue…I didn’t know Lavoie played off wing.
I don’t disagree.
I would say that Broberg and Holloway have both earned roles in the NHL already. There is little doubt those two have proven to be every day 3LD and 4LW (if note 3LW) and the question is how high and how fast will they progress up the lineup.
I presume Broberg starts at 3LD but he could very well be in the top 4 during the season, even on the right side potentially.
I presume Holloway starts at 3LW (maybe 4LW or even 4C) but he very well could be 6F during the season.
Lavoie, he hasn’t played an NHL game so I can’t say he needs to be given a role. He needs to be given a real opportunity to compete for one, and he will be, and he likes earns shot at NHL regular season games – then its up to him but we haven’t seen him there yet.
It would be nice to have an established current NHL centerman for the 4th line – yes, Ryan can play there but its not ideal, yes, Holloway may be able to play there but its not ideal. Yes, McLeod CAN play there but its not idea.