I wrote this in 2017 and it still applies today. Only the names change year over year. We track young players, discuss their strengths and possible futures, while also acknowledging the things that could keep them in the NHL. I was thinking about this part of franchise building yesterday, reminded by the club about some of these players via a recall of several Condors. These men will spend the spring practicing, hanging around the team, and perhaps one of them appears in an NHL game. Is there a future for them? What is the distance between Ryan McLeod and Raphael Lavoie? That is the question.
The Oilers brought Lavoie, Olivier Rodrigue, Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Lane Pederson, Adam Erne and Ben Gleason to the NHL yesterday. It’s a reflection of each player’s work over the season, and perhaps an indication that the management feels a player has an NHL future. Does it work out like that? Can Lavoie consider this recall an endorsement of his winning a roster sport for next season?
Yes!
In 2006, during the playoffs, Edmonton’s pressbox heroes included Toby Petersen, Todd Harvey, Brad Winchester, Marc-Andre Bergerson.
Toby Peterseon played 91 regular-season games before coming to the Oilers. He got into two playoff games for the team during the 2006 run. He won 307 games after the fact. He was 26 when the 2005-06 season began (hockeydb).
Todd Harvey was ending his NHL and pro career in the spring of 2006.
Brad Winchester was a real Oilers prospect, a direct comparable to Lavoie, and he was just getting started on his 390 career games. Winchester scored a big goal in the postseason, took some time from veterans (I believe it was Georges Laraque but could be wrong) and we got a good look at him that spring through 10 playoff games.
Marc-Andre Bergeron had some NHL time before spring 2006, and he would have made it anyway (490 games). I guess his comparable is Philip Broberg, even though they are not similar player types.
What about Lavoie? I think he can play in the NHL, but the Oilers (finally!) are a destination team for veterans who want their final chance at Stanley to count. These men are willing to give up millions in pursuit of a dream. For Lavoie and other young prospects, Blue Rodeo’s Bad Timing is becoming the theme for NHL aspirations during the McDavid winning window.
The player who is both a prospect and the owner of a good spot in the organization’s depth chart at his position? Olivier Rodrigue. He probably starts as No. 3 goalie next year, that means Bakersfield. He’ll be waiver eligible and maybe he catches an NHL job that way. Otherwise, it’s back to Bakersfield to work hard, thrive and wait for a recall. It worked for Calvin Pickard, maybe it works for Rodrigue.
The sad trombone belongs to Xavier Bourgault. He’s not on the list, and I do think he might be on the outs.
New for The Athletic:The 6 biggest stories from Oilers’ 2023-24 AHL team in Bakersfield
https://theathletic.com/5470694/2024/05/05/oilers-bakersfield-2023-24-stats/
Vancouver Canucks (1P) vs. Edmonton Oilers (2P)
Game 1: Oilers at Canucks — May 8, 10 p.m. ET (SN, SN360, CBC, TVAS, ESPN)
Game 2: Oilers at Canucks — May 10, 10 p.m. ET (SN, SN360, CBC, TVAS, TNT, MAX, truTV)
Game 3: Canucks at Oilers — May 12, TBD (SN, SN360, TVAS, TBS, MAX, truTV)
Game 4: Canucks at Oilers — May 14, TBD (ESPN, TVAS)
+ Game 5: Oilers at Canucks — May 16, TBD (TBD)
+ Game 6: Canucks at Oilers — May 18, TBD (TBD)
+ Game 7: Oilers at Canucks — May 20, TBD (TBD)
Obviously all 7 games will be on Sportsnet but i got a laugh outta Game 4 being left off Canadian english television completely in the official schedule. Leafs firing Shanahan press conference that day already on the schedule?
The Stars’ win, while good because intercourse Vegas, means the Oilers will no longer have home ice advantage this postseason.
That’s remarkable – 8 of this year’s the top 9 point-getters moving on (RIP 4th place Jets) . Maybe the regular season does mean something???
Dallas Colorado is gonna be a heck of a series
Hopefully goes 7 gruelling games
I’d be surprised if it didn’t
Lost
To dallas
In
Round 2
Love it, but round 1 actually
Haha yes
Sam Steel doing the Marty Reasoner transformation and living proof that one does not have to fill out the roster with old men, if one has scouts and analytics teams that can sour the bottoms of NHL rosters and the AHL for players.
Sam Steel is from Edmonton, stranded and lost in the depth chart of a team coached by Dallas Eakins, who is incapable of recognizing player ability. Somehow, the Stars organization was able to find him, but the Oilers, not so much.
I like this. Edmonton really needs to go fishing in this pool.
Apparently 30 other teams missed to
Yeah it is odd how he scored 28 points and was +11 in Minnesota last season yet they didn’t even extend him a QO. Dallas scooped him up for 1 x $850k, but clearly the player wasn’t sought after.
Certainly. Every team also has its own struggling player that may not be recognized.
I hope Edmonton looks to some of these players to add to their talent pool.
This is not an excuse.
And Wyatt Johnson was ranked #40 on Bob McKenzie’s list but Dallas picked at #23.
He’s now the leading scorer in the 2021 draft.
Kid’s good. Pasternak, Zetterberg, Kucherov – lots of late-blooming diamonds in the long history of the NHL, this isn’t anything mind-blowing.
PS – Steel is from Sherwood Park and was an elite junior player touted as the next Eberle, so…
I don’t understand.
We are gushing over a player with 24 points this regular season and 1 point in 7 playoff games. Why? 2-way play? Mattias Janmark has 2 points in 5 playoff games.
Oilers Game 1 goes on Wednesday
I guess rest is good but the long wait defeats winning in 5.
Just enough time for McDavid to add another gear.
Wednesday?
Game 1 Wednesday 8:20 MT, 11:20 AT (the latter most relevant to me).
Per SN in real time.
Talking about the Leafs now, lol.
New Stanley Cup champ this year.
VGK stayed a little too long at the ‘LTIR loophole’ table… Hanifin delivered but Stone and Hertl didn’t.
Stars and Avs should be good.
I would have loved to see the Oilers beat them.
But an early exit is almost as good. Hit the road Petriangelo.
Yep he can get back to his wood-pile! Nice to know he cost them G5
and Stone back to the rock pile.
Wonder how Mark Stone’s spleen feels.
Feeling like a dead duck
Spitting out pieces of his broken luck
Aqualung! I dig it….
Bye bye $100M team… bye bye!
Made my day.
In an effort to try to win next year’s Cup, Vegas has now stashed on their LTIR the Utah franchise.
So random question. Who turned out to be the better player? Seguin or Hall?
Seguin leads in GP, goals, assists, points and will most likely play his 1000th game in the NHL next season.
That he was a centre for much of his career pretty much seals the deal.
Injuries definitely played a part. Hall did win a MVP.
Seguin has also had significant injuries and has a Cup ring with an excellent chance of getting another this season..
True
Thank you for your, as usual, clearly unbiased opinion. 🤣🤣🤣
I just don’t understand how you’re not constantly embarrassed by yourself. Bizarre.
“I just don’t understand how you’re not constantly embarrassed by yourself. Bizarre.”
The same way we all avoid it…
Two bags of grass, seventy-five pellets of mescaline, five sheets of high-powered blotter acid, a saltshaker half-full of cocaine, and a whole galaxy of multi-colored uppers, downers, screamers, laughers… Also, a quart of tequila, a quart of rum, a case of beer, a pint of raw ether, and two dozen amyls.
Huh?
Sorry, that was meant for Chretiens Coif…😬😬😬🤗🤗🤗
Since when do we act like jerks on this blog?
Not generally, I quoted the wrong person, and as far as the person I meant to quote, Even though I think it’s self explanatory. I just get tired of his constant bias for the sake of being being contrarian.
I said on draft day that the Oilers should have drafted Seguin not Hall.
All these years later Im sorry you didn’t hear me.
Taylor Hall was an excellent choice.
Nobody could have foreseen that Seguin would be the healthier player over the course of his career. Nobody. At least, nobody sober:
“Is there a chance that, in trying to avoid Eric Lindros, I’m picking Pat Falloon? I don’t think so. Tyler Seguin is legit and everyone knows it. But I’d rather have a guy who’s an A-grade player for seventy games a year for fifteen seasons than a guy who’s an A+ for forty games a year in seven seasons. I’d rather have a good attitude than a bad one. It’s a small concern. It’s nothing that would cause me to overlook a vast talent disparity. But that disparity isn’t there in this case.Ben’s verdict: Tyler Seguin”
I’d go with whoever is not stuck with an albatross contract
Haha
Hall was what the team (thought they) needed…. I’d pick him again. Of all the things we could change from the past, that one is not on my long list of Oilers GM do-overs.
Xavier Bourgeault is looking like a bust. But the biggest bust is Oilers scouts that placed their bets in Qmjhl. Definitely had great players in the past but that league just not producing much high end talent.
https://chl.ca/lhjmq/en/article/close-to-80-qmjhl-alumni-begin-2023-2024-regular-season-in-the-nhl/#:~:text=Among%20the%20squads%20are%2079,teams'%20active%20or%20injured%20rosters.
Declined in last decade
The latest stats I can find…from 2022…show there are 348 former NCAA players in the NHL.
That compares to the 79 players from the Q in the linked article.
I think I know where I would be spending my scouting budget.
If you look at the players themselves though you find most of the ones that are very good to high end are in their 30s
So the number 79 is really skewed to players drafted quite some time ago
Yeah noticed that.
I wonder if the feeder leagues in Quebec and the Maritimes have suffered a decline?
True, but there are no Bergersons in the NCAA. And we need the Bergersons.
A Macklin Celebrini will have to do.
I just took a look at the top prospects in the 1st round of the upcoming draft:
NCAA 8
WHL 8
OHL 6
RUSSIA 4
FINLAND 3
CZECHIA 2
QMJHL 1 (ranked 32)
A real off year for Sweden as there are no Swedes ranked in the top 32 depending on whose list you use.
Im not saying there’s no good players in the Q. But it’s a odds game and the odds in the Q are the worst in the casino. Unless there’s an absolute star at the top of the ticket I would shop elsewhere.
And USNDP and NCAA is where I would put my chips then whl and Ohl
so pretty much what you have there
Yep.
I would also spend significant scouting budget on the BCJHL who send a raft of players to the NCAA.
https://bchl.ca/19-bchl-alumni-crack-nhl-opening-night-rosters
There are also like 64 Tier I NCAA teams and 18 teams in the Q (I believe).
I don’t see him as a bust. There was a lot to like in his game. he might do better with a new coach.
A look inside how one NHL team has embraced analytics.
Corey Masisak
@cmasisak22
“We never really did that kind of stuff in Tampa”
“It’s new to me”
The AVs don’t just embrace analytics, or just have a coach that’s fluent in them. It’s how they use the data and how they communicate it to players.
https://www.denverpost.com/2024/05/05/colorado-avalanche-analytics-success/
Question for you Harper’s Hair: who are you personally cheering for in the playoffs?
Before the season began, I put a unit each on Dallas and Carolina so there is some rooting interest there.
But mostly I just enjoy the games as long as they are close battles between highly skilled teams.
Are you a Canuck fan? Of the Oilers and Canucks, who do you want to win?
Doesn’t matter to me…should be Oilers in 6.
https://theathletic.com/5471585/2024/05/05/canucks-oilers-nhl-playoffs-preview-odds-matchups/
The Athletic has the Oilers as the favorites.
Having elite players helps
It all helps but elite players help the most.
I’ve been meaning to ask, does the carpet match the curtains?
Even the Avalanche analytics department sucks. Screw em.
Canes can’t stay out of the box and the Rangers are making them pay. Avs and Oil PP also cooking. If VAN plays to not take penalties, space will open up and the high-end Oiler players should get the better of them.
I received many angry looks at the Pearl Jam concert at Rogers Arena last night when I began the “Let’s Go Oilers” chant loud and proud in the concourse before the show. Yeah… F those guys! You’re welcome!
The market for near 30ish 3rd line wingers is a tough market.
The Oilers might be able to get Foegele back for one or two years at half the price.
If the Oilers re-sign Desharnais, I like Kulak much more than Ceci, so I would trade Ceci, and move Broberg to the right side for a year or two.
If Desharnais signs elsewhere, then one just starts with Broberg on the right side with Kulak, and one keeps Ceci for the final year of his contract.
One then only trades Kulak, if somebody like Pesce is incoming.
Just run Broberg with Nurse. Ekholm with Bouchard. And Kulak with Desharnais.
!!!!
Foegele will get $3MM plus in the open market.
The Oilers played Broberg on the left side of a leftie/leftie pairing for most of the season. The chances they go in camp presuming he’ll be an every day right side d-men seem very small.
You don’t think $1.375M per on a short term deal is reasonable?
Sure, I think Godot has his wires crossed here.
He’s conflating what he thinks Foegele’s actually worth these playoffs with what he’s likely to get paid this summer.
Still, Foegele’s an interesting player. When the Oilers needed cap space, there was no one willing to take that contract without payment.
Poor start for Foegele so far, but the rest of his performance these playoffs will determine his next paycheque.
The mid market for 30ish players in the NHL gets squeezed. Unless one brings something unique, this type of player is replaceable by a younger or older cheaper player.
Pius Suter is one guy that jumped out in my mind.
He had 14 goals and 24 points last year. He signed for $1.6m x 2.
He’s also a ‘96, so he would have been a year younger than Foegele when he signed.
Corey Perry got $4MM last off-season coming off a 25 point season.
Killorn got 4 X $6.25MM coming off a career high of 64 points (and being 33).
The Perry deal was insane. IIRC, he had been on $1X1MM contracts for the previous three years. It’s like Chicago was trying way too hard to get to the cap floor.
Chicago had cap space to burn, and had to pay a premium to get Perry a team to go to a rebuilding situation.
Killorn is a legit, two-way two-position 2nd line player, and Anaheim again had to pay him a premium to go to a rebuilding situation.
Will lsome rebuilding team offer Foegele $3 million, but he does not have multiple cupa and the track record like Perry and Killorn to be a mentor.
Yeah, his play for the remainder of this playoff is certainly likely to impact his next deal.
I don’t think there’s any world where his next contract comes in under $2M per though, much less under $1.5M per, whatever Godot may think his worth is.
This is a just turned 28-year-old coming off a career year who was paid $2.15M and $2.75M on his last two (RFA) deals.
Beyond those realities about Foegele’s next deal, I agree that he’s not a player the Oilers should prioritize retaining, nor a player they should pay what he’s likely to get on the open market.
Agree with you here.
Foegele had 20 goals and 41 points this past season. This season has a bit of a Kassian feel to it (Kassian’s last big offensive year playing with 97), though they are vastly different players. His stats were pumped by playing with Draisaitl.
He had 19 points and 8 goals at 5v5 playing with Draisaitl.
Wherever he ends up, there’s a good chance he doesn’t end up playing in the top six and the signing team could end up paying him too much money for too many years.
Yeah, Foegele’s career year was definitely mostly/all due to the extra top 6 time he got.
He’s been a ~30 point, ~$2.5M player even without much top 6 time though, so a $3M-ish UFA deal seems all but a given (and he has been pretty successful when given top 6 time with the Oilers and IIRC also the Canes, so you can see why someone would/will extend that kind of offer).
In the calendar year 2019 Kassian scored 26-24-50 in 82 games (49 EV, 1SH), lead Oilers forwards in goal differential, and was also a legitimate heavyweight in the league. I actually think the 4 x $3.2M deal Kassian got would be more defensible than the equivalent deal (4 x $3.5M with current cap) for Foegele.
Decent chance he’ll get that from someone though, and I sure hope it’s not the Oilers (don’t think it will be, but I’ve obviously bee wrong before).
We don’t know this is true.
Just because us fans and bloggers projected his being traded doesn’t mean management was trying to move him and, even if they were, that doesn’t mean they would have had to pay, but simply they didn’t get an offer they felt was worth it – Holland has proven he will generally not move players/contracts for less than what he feels is value.
“Objection your honor, speculation.” That’s sort of what I envision you saying here. 🙂
There was a lot of chatter about this at times during the course of his Oilers career. It’s probably in the category of “where there’s smoke, there’s fire,” but certainly not definitively true.
I’ve heard he’s weak on the defensive boards so that might be an over-pay, right?
I’m not sure about the dzone boards, but TBH his puck management isn’t great. He seems to have trouble eliminating the low percentage plays from his game, and he’s fallen down the lineup in the playoffs each year (2 of 3 at least). I agree with Scungilli on those things, and they’re a big part of the reason I don’t think they should pay Foegele what the market is likely to dictate.
I do not gamble. Investing satisfies my risk taking inclinations. But I’ll take the under $3 million, for bragging rights. If somebody pays him more, in the medium term it will be seen as a mistake.
It being a mistake if/when it happens isn’t relative to the conversation.
WF needs to be upgraded for many reasons
IF Bro can handle RD
Ek Bouch
Nurse Carrier (or the like)
Kulak Bro
for me
I think people would be quite surprised in the difference 5v5 having all good skating and passing D and 3 pairs that defend entries well and keep pucks in and take good shots at the other end
Exactly.
They key move should be disposing of Ceci.
Of course you try and trade him but a buyout is not an expensive proposition with cap hits of only $917K and $1.19M.
That saves $2.3M on the cap next season while trading Kulak and replacing him with Broberg saves an additional $2M or so.
Starting to look for a Ceci replacement with $4.6M in your pocket plus savings from letting all the forward UFAs (especially Foegele) walk should net a very good 2 RD.
Just for arguments sake, LA may not re-sign Matt Roy and he would be an upgrade but there will be other options.
Here’s a list of UFA RD
https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/free-agents/2025/caphit/all/defense/all/desc/right?stats-season=2024
If Vinnie wants too much, replacing him should be relatively easy.
Toronto is your natural trade partner for dmen.
Send Ceci and Kulak their way for Jarnkrok. Sign Vinny and one of Pesce, Carrier or whoever. Broberg plays with Vinny.
Go and get Monahan if Foegele is too expensive. I see Godot’s angle and agree a two year for cheaper cause he wants a Cup makes sense.
Got stay careful on term though. Gonna need some flexibility when we snake Marner from the Leafs 😈
They can’t sign an expensive D or they have will soon have to trade one of Nurse Ek or Bouch
Which is why I always mention Carrier. His PuckQs are great and he won’t get paid much over 3M. Also the right skill set for Nurse. Or anyone really except maybe Bro because AC is small and Bro not yet physical. Or ever, doesn’t matter
Ceci returns a positive asset.
Citing a potential buyout is a narrative and not being honest in discussion.
Ekholm, IMO could be a RHD if paired with Broberg. Kulak & Desharnais might be one of the top third pairing league wide. Nurse & Bouch can certainly line up together.
Ekholm played on the right side some his last season in Nashville and the numbers were not pretty. He’s only going to get slower so keep him on his left side.
Why would one put the old slow guy on the right side rather than the elite skating young player?
Pair Broberg with Nurse if Ceci is gone, or with Kulak, if Desharnais is gone.
There is little evidence that Broberg is an effective Rhd. Let alone a top-4 NHL RHD.
He has played the majority of his professional career on the left side. If the Oilers run a double leftie pair, why not put the vet on their offhand?
If I am crystal balling:
Let Foegele walk.
Let Henrique walk.
Trade Ceci.
Trade Kulak.
Trade Kane.
Trade Campbell.
I’d keep Kane. Another year recovered for his arm, he’ll be better, he can still skate. Especially if Perry goes
That is fair. He has a no movement iirc so a trade might be difficult. Still, I think he has positive value and the cap dollars could be allocated more efficiently.
Kane’s NMC transitions to a 16 team NTC on Mar 1 of 2025 – he might be amenable to a trade this summer if he likes the destination
Kane is my target to move this summer if he agrees to the deal
They need his entire tool kit. A player that can score like him isn’t going to save cap
Kane is a unicorn, I’d keep him. Thirty goals like ringing a bell in a package with size, speed, physicality and truculence, not many like him around. They’re a valuable commodity for a reason.
You are unlikely to get a more cap efficient deal from free agency, and trading for a more efficient deal will cost significant assets.
Kane is going to be a 33 year old power forward. That is not a unicorn. That is a player who already has a few toes over a cliff. I appreciate the player right now, but the contract is very risky
This is essentially my thinking.
He’s got just 2 years left on his deal, there’s very little risk in it. He’ll be 34 when the contract expires.
Keep Kane. The rest are correct.
I like playoff Kulak a lot but he’s too pricey in this structure (thanks Darnell).
I’d also let Desharnais go.
Haven’t you heard? Draisaitl is going to be traded to the Bruins for a boat load of players, if they don’t win the cup, or maybe even if they win the cup. LOL.
I heard Bergeron is going to reactivate for a sign and trade
Is it the start time Tuesday for the Oilers-Nucks game that is still up in the air until the Vegas-Dalllas game is completed or is it the day altogether?
I believe the day. It will be 7:00 Pacific
Thanks like many Oiler faithful I need to plan around the day.
It could be Wed (I think if Vegas wins).
Ooh no.
Why would Vegas winning push back Gm1 on another series?
Building availability in Colorado.
One would think a Wednesday Gm1 would leave no game on Saturday night. I can’t see Sportsnet agreeing to this.
This year I legit felt sorry for the Leaves. That OT goal was such a downer. So sudden and anticlimactic.
oh well! 🙂
Same with me, they have had enough pain and punishment. I watch some of the sports talk shows like Overdrive, etc and they are much more contrite than they were a few years back. They acknowledge Oilers are better, and 97 is the best.
I save my hatred for the Flames. As for the Leafs after years of the fan base getting tortured I was kinda cheering for them until they scored and they showed those older moron Leaf fans dancing around and mocking the Bruin fans in their own building. There was still 11 minutes still remaining this was straight up jinxing your own team.
The issue most people have with the Leafs isn’t the city or the organization, it’s their moronic fans.
I’m sure Leaf fans feel the same way about Oiler fans.
Just wanted them to increase the HRR and therefore the cap.
That set play was perfect from the bounce to the move. Hrudey played net and his first response was to Blame Samsonov. I don’t see it that way it happened so quick. I wonder how many goalies would of attempted to play the puck in game 7 of a OT match.
It’s easy to say, as Hrudey said, Samsonov probably could have gotten to the puck before the pasta man. He may have considered it though he hesitated and had no choice but to make the save. The rest is history. Hrudey would have been no better, it was very well executed by the Bruins.
I think Hrudey was completely out to lunch on that one.
Holy smokes hadn’t noted Borg wasn’t called up. dang.
Nor Wanner. But since he’s a rookie pro perhaps that’s not unexpected.
Canada defeats the U.S. 6-4 to win the Men’s U18 championship. Sixteen (!!) year-old Gavin McKenna, the Wonder Kid from Whitehorse, had 3 goals and an assist in the game and 10 goals/20 points in 7 games.
Canada scored 3 goals on a 5 minute power play in the third period for the come from behind win.
Having grown up in Whitehorse this is very special indeed. Breaking that record while winning gold against the juggernaut US in his draft – 2 is just an unbelievable accomplishment.
McKenna is very likely to lead the Dub in scoring the next two seasons before he gets drafted in ’26.
He finished with 97 points in 61 GP in his D-2 season, almost matching Bedard’s D-1 (100 in 62 GP).
Even more impressive comparing their D-2 World U-18’s:
McKenna: 10+10 in 7 GP
Bedard: 7+7 in 7 GP
Granted, McKenna is older for his draft cohort than Bedard (Dec. vs. July), but that’s still pretty damn good.
Bottom-feeders in the near future will be starting the Cave-In For Gavin…
I find the verbal in two cities fascinating. In Edmonton if we don’t win the cup McDavid and Draisaitl are gone. In Toronto the core four will persevere till the end.
Three of the ‘core four’ scoring totals regress significantly (greater than 25%) in the playoffs vs regular season. Only Willie is close (.80 playoffs vs .88 reg).
Compare that to Connor and Leon, who both increase their scoring come crunch time.
The challenge they have (thanks Dubious) is that all of the ‘four-core’ have full NMC.
TML are screwed until the end of of next year when the Tavares and Marner contracts end, unless of course they can find a trade and convince Marner to leave his home town.
Note: EP40 is tall and thin like Marner and also has less pts/gm in the playoffs vs regular season. Need toughness for a SC run!
All true.
They’re especially screwed since they need to clean house in management now (Keefe is 1-5 in playoff series), but it doesn’t really make sense to do that with a year left on Marner/Tavares’s contracts.
Has Sid Seixeiro put out a “Matthews isn’t going to put up with this for much longer” tweet like he did for McDavid yet?
Not in Toronto he won’t 😂😂
— yeah Sid is one of those obnoxious Toronto leafs owned media guys who just believes the Leafs are entitled to Cups and devestated when they don’t
— I don’t get some of the comments re: feel sorry for leafs fans or more contrite. Leafs beat Oil this year the arrogance was sickening. Overdrive – Jeff has a big disdain for the Oil.
— The whole “McDavid needs to leave the oilers so that he can win” was just code for “of course he would come to us here in the Center of the universe because you know we are the best”
— The leafs are such a joke organization: corporate owned: new guy Pelly comes in his first presser is entirely about “unlocking value within our organization, synergies, a tremendous franchise, globally Leafs are beloved”.
— Not a mention of commitment to Cup
— I also find the Leafs fans very low knowledge of hockey outside of leafs. This and the corporate owned press and percent coverage of leafs on all sports here terrible
— So great every year when they are done and after a few weeks of sucky baby no choice but to follow other things.
Would have liked to watch Jason Gregor and Louie DeBrusk in the same room during that game7.
It was a sweet win although second in memory to 2013.
Treliving will be back where he belongs soon enough, consultant for daddy’s pizza shops. Or maybe a consultant on Dragon’s Den. Apparently, Zach Hyman is the privileged one. Certainly daddy has had zero influence on his hockey carreer and he’s clearly where he is due to hockey acumen.
Giordano done dirty twice by Treliving? Unprotected in Calgary then healthy scratch in Toronto to end his career?? Mark Messier leadership award… eye roll… who needs that in the dressing room game 7.
— Today is an annual tradition like no other: it might fall earlier or later but it’s a sure thing :”the day after the leafs are finished their season”.
— Living in Leaf Nation when I have such a disdain for the team owned media all year every year lately claiming it’s the leafs time. Or the 99.9% coverage of Matthews getting to 70 goals and is he the best player in the NHL today?
— Monday drive to office downtown will be sweet: the sucky baby corporate lackies of the laughs all sucky baby on radio.
— The worst thing about sport is the fans: by definition fanatical. Fanaticism is not a good thing. Leafs are losers
— I’m strutting around with my Oil shirt at our club today : full of those Leaf privilege fans that I’ve always disdained. Strutting like Ric Flair proudly with shirt. Chest out worked out to get my swole on! Guys give me calendar looks or quickly bow their head in shame.
— I love it too much seeing the leafs season implode, the moronic fans, the worry of the media conglomerate cross-ownership panic. F&ck the Leafs and everything about “the most important franchise in Hockey”. F&ck them all
GOILERS!!
Reminds me of the old Chinese proverb, “man with hole in pocket feel cocky”!
— Oilers Florida Cup?!!
Maybe!
Confucius says, Man with itchy bum wakes up with stinky fingers.
For your enjoyment:
https://twitter.com/OptaSTATS/status/1786979532945101120
Also read that if the Leafs don’t win the cup by 2030 or so, they will be the only original 6 team whose name isn’t on the cup.
You need to own a Bruins jersey for these special occasions… lol
I don’t think the Oilers can afford those veterans next season.
They might not have room for EITHER of Foegele or Henrique and likely need Holloway and Lavoie to fill those spots.
Sure, the Jamark/Ryan/Carrick level vets may come but can they afford any sort of material add in the off-season?
I guess part of that is what current vets and cap commitments are shed. Do they actually move Kulak to open up the Broberg spot? We’ve been talking about this for a long time it hasn’t happened. Moving Ceci likely does not shed cap as the replacement won’t be cheaper I wouldn’t think. How (and if) is Campbell moved off the books and what’s the dead cap hit (via retainment or buyout cost)?
We don’t know what the new GM will do with current cap commitments.
I think there is definitely room to be creative. Holloway and Broberg need to be in. If not, and they want to keep Kulak instead, move Broberg and Campbell (+ if need be) and upgrade the Foegele spot. I don’t hate him, and a 40pt (ish) season is great, but I do think there are available gains to be had at that position.
I’m sure they’d love to keep Kulak – so would i, but I just can’t see it making sense any longer. Yes, they could move Broberg but I don’t see his trade value coming even close to the value he’ll provide for the Oilers, in particular over the next few years with a hugely cheap cap hit. His QO for next season is less than his current cap hit, at $833K and he might sign that.
There will likely be cap savings on Campbell but not even close to the full $5MM I wouldn’t think. I don’t imagine he gets traded without significant retainment, even with real sweeteners. A first round pick almost surely does not get that full contract off the books. Also, Campbell was a $3.85MM cap hit for most of this season, that’s the starting point on savings, not $5MM, right?
How do you upgrade on Foegele (20G, 18 at 5 on 5 I think), plus PK work, etc. for near his current cap hit?
Trading good young players to keep guys around 30 would be absolute madness. Team killing
It is good management to keep your best players and upgrade the bottom performers. Remember it’s not only points and goals, it’s outscoring and driving possession. Also making sure every contract is a cap value contract, so you can keep your team deep
If this is true, what should be done based on cap hits, underlying stats and GF%, is keep Kulak the playoff performer, trade Nurse and Ceci, let Vinny walk unless he does a team friendly, and either use the return or the cap to get the required D
Kulak and Vinny have started taking some top QoC from Nurse Ceci I’ve read. You get Bro a proper RD partner (physical with experience and is puck enabled), and coach the crap out of Bro and by season end you should know who pair 2 should be for the playoffs. Under Coffey the pairs minutes have evened out a lot, no reason they couldn’t do this. PuckIQ has the usage getting pretty even, and that’s the whole season. If we could date range it since Jan I’ll bet it’s even closer
There is no way that will happen, but that’s what the last two seasons and playoffs last and this year are saying, if they want to get better in the back end. The more likely outcome is moving Kulak and Ceci and getting Nurse a partner that makes a pair that can drive numbers more like the other two pairs (eg. Carrier, Daily Faceoff projecting him at 2.75M) and help Leon out better when he’s 2C. Or Connor if the change deployment
Also Holloway is a better player than Foegele right now, so that’s taken care of. He is more skilled and talented and reads the game better, is more physical, and doesn’t make any more mistakes than the 1-5 GF/GA WF has in 6 games. With a full season and some TOI it won’t be close. Although I think they should be grooming him for C at some point
It’s possible Ceci or Kulak and whatever could be used to move Campbell. I think it’s possible to trade him instead of buy him out. Perhaps a team with cap and cash would do it to acquire the D player and they buy JC out. Other teams do it, we can to
It would cost so much more than Kulak or Ceci for any team to take on Campbell straight up – like a first round pick plus I would suggest.
Yes, but that’s still far better than a buyout. 3.85M buys a pretty good NHL player, late picks don’t have that value, even if important hopefully later
Mistakes have costs, I prefer not to compound the pain by creating other problems that endure
Any movement of Jack Campbell off the roster is going to create other problems that endure, be it a 6 year buyout cap hit or 3 years of retained salary plus assets out or, if not retained salary, big value draft picks out that create pain by reducing future trade assets and future value contracts on the team.
There is no “good way” to move that contract.
Yup. I hate the idea of Campbell costing us Broberg but I have no doubt it is a scenario that will be discussed by the decision makers come June.
But since Crystal Ball is the title of today’s post here goes.
If I am making this decision the first thing I want settled is what is the window for the current roster.
Kulak and Ekholm both have two years left on their contracts and are the current guys blocking Broberg. The team is in a win now window for that and other reasons. That is the horizon imo. You want it to be longer but McDavid & Draisaitl are also unknowns. I am planning for the next two years.
So the next thing I want to know is if Broberg is likely to be better than Kulak for those years and then does he have potential to play higher than that in year 3 if Ekholm moves on as a secondary consideration.
I don’t know the answer to any of those questions but they are the questions that get you paid big bucks by teams if you get the answers right.
Then the money.
If they move Kulak they pick up about $2M in cap space by replacing him with Broberg in that position. I would think they would prefer a pick for Kulak if that is what they do.
If they sacrifice Broberg to dump Campbell they pick up $3.85 in cap space depending on what the number is next season for burying players in the AHL.
If they buyout Campbell and trade Kulak they save the $2M on Kulak and lose $1.1 M the first year and $2.3M the second plus 4 more years after that of paying to have Campbell not on the team. So they only pick up about $900,000 by losing Kulak and burying Campbell next season and go in the hole about $400,000 in year two. This seems to me the least attractive of the 3 options.
I would think the outcome of this year’s playoffs will have some bearing on the decision as will the GM decision. If Holland moves on Broberg is an orphan in terms of having anybody with the team who is emotionally attached.
As much as I dislike losing him I fear Broberg is the sacrificial lamb to the cap gods this summer.
P.S. I still let Foegele walk.
Losing Broberg probably means paying another D-man $2-3M more than him. That’s almost as much as Campbell costs you in the minors. The more I think about it, the more I think the best plan is to stow him in the minors. And honestly, he might be worth a shot as a backup. He played pretty decently in the Bake this year, and he seems to do fine when the pressure is off.
Don’t move Kulak. Just move Broberg to the right side. If the Oilers re-sign Desharnais, trade Ceci.
1) Deharnais has not shown the ability to play 2RD and things did not go very well when they did try him up the lineup.
2) Broberg seems to be clearly better on his left side (all the way back to his days in Sweden, the only time he’s really played the right side and wasn’t as good) and the org clearly wants him on the left. Not sure why they’d put him in a poorer position to succeed.
We should also mention another exclusion, Marcus Niemelainen who had another “run in place” year with as much time spent injured (multiple injuries) as spent impacting the game on the ice (again).
The sad trombone belongs to Xavier Bourgault. He’s not on the list, and I do think he might be on the outs.
I posted the day the call-ups were announced that this is also a message to Bourgault and here is hoping that he’s already started on his path back to building himself up to be a real prospect.
The message has been the same since his draft day – needs to get stronger in the off-season. I don’t know if he has or if he hasn’t, I don’t know what he’s done in the off-seasons, however, it has not translated on the ice as a pro – if anything he’s regressed in some of the areas he needs to improve on.
The book isn’t closed, he’s still got one year left on his ELC but this kid needs a good summer and needs a very strong season at the AHL level.
The non-call-up and, in my opinion message, is fully warranted – he didn’t earn the privllege of being with the NHL club at this point.
Apologies for missing the non-quote on this (not intended).
Whats with the shrouded mystery that is NHL announcement of Edm@Van date(s) ?
Don’t want to announce before the game 7 probably as if it matters
I doubt that’s the reasoning as NYR CAR game 1 is being played today 🤷🏻♂️
John Shannon said Tuesday is G1
Ya, it’s odd isnt it? Today @ 2pm is game 1, round 2 of Carolina vs Rangers… which is being played b4 the round 1 game 7 Vegas vs Dallas @ 5:30.
It doesn’t happen often but the NBA style of starting round 2 before round 1 is fully over has happened a few times in the recent past in the NHL.
I think it’s Dallas, the NBA playoffs are on.
Not sure what the Mavs playing has to do with anything. The Rags vs Canes games were scheduled before the Bruins conclusion. The Bruins vs Panthers games were scheduled not long after the Bruins win. The Oil vs Canucks should have been scheduled by now.
G1 in VCR should be played tonight. NHL playing silly bugger.
I thinks it a legit matter of scheduling.
The other series could start in either Dallas or Colorado. They will want to stagger the two conference series so there isn’t overlap.
We presume T/T/S to start the Oilers series but, if either Dallas or Colorado doesn’t have availability on Wed or Friday that may change and the Oilers starting on Wed, for example.
The NHL operates in mysterious ways. Didn’t you know?
Gregor posted it had to do with arena availability in Denver of all places. If Vegas wins tonight, G1 will be @COL where the preferred date for that series (Wed) is supposedly compromised. If Dallas wins, they stay right where they are & play Game 1 on Tuesday. Or so i understand it.
pretty sure we’ll have a sked within minutes of the end of this evening’s game.
Supposedly it’s because of scheduling with the game 7 happening today and guessing they need to make sure TNT in US gets two games Wednesday.
Earlier this season I was interested in seeing just how bad Toronto has been, historically. I didn’t post it for fear it could unleash some spirits from early in the Cold War…
As we all know Toronto hasn’t won since 1967. Perhaps worse, they haven’t won a Cup since there were more than 6 teams in the NHL. And sure, they cleaned up for stretches during the Original 6 era, but what happens if you control for number of opponents?
Or, how many other teams did you actually have to be better than, in order to win? I calculated NHL-era Cups: Montreal stays at the top, Chicago, Pittsburgh, and Edmonton come out nicely, while Boston, NYR, and especially Toronto, tumble badly.
Toronto had to be better than 69 other teams on way to their 13 Cups, Los Angeles, on the other hand, in order to claim 2 Cups, had to be better than almost as many: 60 teams. When you do this, Toronto drops from 2nd most Cups to 11th most opponents beaten for Cups for the largest individual decline as they fall 9 spots. Boston goes down 6 spots and Rangers, 7.
NEW RANK CUPS # OF TEAMS BESTED
MONTREAL 21 250
DETROIT 11 158
PITTSBURGH 5 133
CHICAGO 6 113
EDMONTON 5 105
TAMPA 3 92
COLORADO 3 88
NEW JERSEY 3 84
NEW YORK ISLANDERS 4 84
BOSTON 6 80
TORONTO 13 69
LOS ANGELES 2 60
NEW YORK RANGERS 4 52
PHILADELPHIA 2 34
VEGAS 1 32
ST.LOUIS 1 31
WASHINGTON 1 31
ANAHEIM 1 30
CAROLINA 1 30
DALLAS 1 27
CALGARY 1 21
MONTREAL MAROONS 1 9
OTTAWA 1 10
Interesting and a good read. Also shows that EDM needs to get the 6th cup to move into a tie for 4th # of wins overall.
Cool. You should do cups per years in the league as well
Looking at the top of the cups / year list:
MTL: 0.219
TML: 0.123
EDM: 0.114 (soon to be .136)
DET: 0.113
AVS: 0.107
Thanks I knew we’d be looking good
Interesting work!
Not sure I follow. Are you saying Vegas had to beat out 32 other teams? Or that there were 32 teams in the league at the time?
in the 13 seasons Toronto won, there were 77 teams in the NHL in total, meaning they beat 64 of them. But if the latter is the criterion, other #s here have to be lowered including LAK. STL, WSH, ANA, CAR to name a few that jump off the screen.
Oh yeah …I think I need to go back to the napkin
Gonna get this data set sorted out and post it when the Leafs are bounced in 25.
This is why I love this blog. Where else do you find such thoughtful fans? Fans who care about hockey, and not only the Oilers? Seriously, an Athletic writer could get paid to write a piece on this alone.
Maybe you like this sort: Playoffs points percentage. It tells you which teams have won the greatest proportion of their playoff games… EDM looking pretty good on this list.