Way back in the summer time I published my reasonable expectations article, and predicted several Bakersfield Condors would make the jump. I had Matt Savoie leading the way, and suggested he would score 37 points in 76 games. He is currently at 33 points in 79 games, and I’m going to call that a prediction success. Please read this.
I also suggested Ike Howard would play 50 games and score 18 points, but he played just 28 ganes with only five points. I had Roby Jarentie getting nine NHL games (he got three), Noah Philp 32 (he played 17, for two teams) and Max Jones playing five (currently 20 games). All of the evidence is here, and I think it’s a pretty good attempt to read tea leaves.
Meanwhile, the men who didn’t land in Edmonton for long stretches delivered in Bakersfield, along with some fellows (like Quinn Hutson) who did get recalled but were not expected to in August.
Ike Howard delivered a strong season of scoring and outscoring for the Bakersfield Condors. Management will have to decide if he’s the correct left winger to join Vasily Podkolzin on the skill lines over the next few seasons. He absolutely helped his cause and was the most dynamic forward on a team with plenty of firepower all season.
If there was an expansion draft this summer, and all Condors forwards were made available, my list would be (in order) Howard, Josh Samanski, Quinn Hutson, Roby Jarventie and James Hamblin. That may be a surprise list, but centers are important. I excluded Viljami Marjala because there’s not much edge to his game, and he’s the one player on this list who was unable to sway the even-strength goal share in a good direction. Overall, this Condors group is outstanding. Best OIlers AHL affiliate since Draisaitl and Nurse were Condors in 2015.
The Oilers play Los Angeles tomorrow, early game and I suspect we will see Calvin Pickard recalled to the NHL team today. Tristan Jarry likely gets the start, but Pickard in relief has worked out pretty well for this team. I know he hasn’t played well in Bakersfield, but Connor Ingram wasn’t fab either. We’ll see.
On the Lowdown today, Steve Lansky will be our feature guest and we’ll talk about the possible playoff matchups in round one of the postseason. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube.
How Oilers winger Vasily Podkolzin emerged as a foundation piece for the future
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7183376/2026/04/10/oilers-vasily-podkolzin-stats-2026/
I am curious about the “development impact” Draisaitl has on players. To the eye, it appears irrefutable viz Podkolzin. (I’m guessing there was no one in Vancouver willing or able to play this role?) Has Draisaitl done this before?
If this is a “thing,” then his importance to the club grows even as his scoring will, eventually, fade.
I remember Drai staying after practice with Poolparty, when he was here years ago.
Just had to go double check, but Puljujarvi is playing with none other than the infamous Marc-Antoine Pouliot! (And other Oiler legends: Markus Granlund, Derrick Brassard and Taylor Beck.)
The Lowetide Dream is alive and well in Geneve.
Credit Podkolzin, they say his work ethic is unmatched. We were hearing this last year when he was getting diddly on the 4th line and he was still first on last off.
There are teachers in my family and by far their favourite kids to teach are the ones who are relentlessly curious. It’s tiring, but makes them better at their job (and keeps them young).
Drai and 97 took notice and respected someone as obsessed as they are in the drive to perfection.
Game respects game.
Excellent point. You can see it in his eyes, he seems laser focused all the time. Wouldn’t it be nice if we could find more like him, as a real willingness to learn necessitates humility in approach. He has shown that in spades
Not to be that guy but all of the reports out of St Louis are that Holloway and Bro are the same kind of rink rats. Too bad this wasn’t acknowledged by the overlapping braintrust back in the summer of 2024
I called it last year Leon is our future Head Coach and G.M. This of course is after he retires at 41 having played his entire career in Edmonton. Booook it……..
With a half billion dollars in the bank and a supermodel wife and maybe kids by then, I’ll bet he could think of better ways to spend his time.
Highly doubt he takes a pay cut and adds hours to his day in his 40s.
If “the German Gretzky” wants to give back to the game, I suspect it will be to grow the game back in Germany.
I forgot to mention he’ll coach Team Germany at the Olympics and be the G.M twice. Double duty just like Cooper-Armstrong.
I see it too.
About 3 months ago before Podkolzin had solidified his spot in the top 6, I said that the Frederic and Podkolzin signings should have been reversed.
I got a lot of pushback then but I wonder if people now agree that it would have been a value deal to sign Podkolzin for 8 years and Frederic for only 3?
I remember that comment distinctively (true wisdom) but I don’t remember the push back. If anything, it was a resounding agreement from this crowd.
You’d be off your rockers to argue your point, even three months ago.
Podz has been impressing from day one.
Freddy… not so much.
Summarizing!
Lewandowski was not proffered soup as the Blades were routed 6-1. PA leads the series 1-0 with Game 2 on the morrow.
Poulin gets one on net and Jarventie bangs home the rebound.
This was 20-25 seconds of Condors offensive pressure started with a Clattenburg forecheck and big bang on the end boards.
Petrov with the 2nd assist.
Regula with some good touches in the sequence.
5-2
I always look forward to all the condor updates OP as I’m sure many others do. A huge value add.
Thank you!
Jarventie slides down low at the end of the PP (after the PP has ended, officially), find Regula activating in to the slot and he buries it for the 4-2.
Jarventie and Regula have had great games.
Leppanen with a nice dangle to get a back-hand on net on the PP – a scramble and Leppanen bangs it in.
Marjala and Griffith with the assists.
3-2 Condors.
Hamblin hits the post from the slot and Justin Bailey turns Carfagna inside out for a breakaway goal.
2-2
Jarvenite steals one at center, drives, splits the D, goes backhand and buries the 2-1.
Griffith enters the zone on a 3 on 3, cross ice to Nicholl at the circle, he opens up and wrists one home for his first goal on his first shift.
Lafreniere and Nicholl will start on the 4th line with D’Amato – Nicholl as the center.
Pickard with the start.
Akey remains out of the lineup – I don’t know about any injury…..
Holty says Akey is injured – seems more the norm than anything.
Vegas blowing a 2-goal third period lead and only getting one point against Seattle last night is something I am all for…..
Woah, I had no idea, thought they had won that game!
Coach said Dickinson is ruled out for tomorrow – no listed timeline, just day to day.
“Have not decided” on goalie.
If we win tomorrow we dont have to worry about going through the Central Division. Pretty big game with only 3 to go.
Per Stauff:
The @EdmontonOilers Jason Dickinson NOT available for tomorrow’s game vs LA according to HC Kris Knoblauch-no timeline for the injury at this time.
Knoblauch also didn’t name the starter in goal for the game.
Beautiful kitty, Lowetide!
Cats are the worst! But I still gave you a thumbs up. Similar to dogs, they’re so hit and miss.
Youre hanging with the wrong cats, Ranford.85
Practice Today
Podkolzin – McDavid – Savoie
Jones – RNH – Kapanen
Dach – Samanski – Frederic
Roslovic – Henrique – Lazar
Michaels
Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Emberson
Stastney
Per Tony B:
Max Jones is in regular rotation in the top six on a line with Nugent-Hopkins & Kapanen.
“Jonesy, since he’s been called up, has been playing really good hockey.” – Kapanen. #Oilers
—————
I would not put Roslovic with Rico and Lazar – a waste (and those two probably play better with Jones than Rosie).
I would not take Jones out of the bottom six as he likely “changes his game” away from what has made him successful recently.
Podz was on the ice 40 minutes before practice.
Connor Ingram is on the ice for practices.
Hope we get a TJ Hughes signs with oilers post soon.
“I also suggested Ike Howard would play 50 games and score 18 points, but he played just 28 ganes with only five points. I had Roby Jarentie getting nine NHL games (he got three), Noah Philp 32 (he played 17, for two teams) and Max Jones playing five (currently 20 games). All of the evidence is here, and I think it’s a pretty good attempt to read tea leaves.”
LT: Tip of my hat to your predictions., you nailed it….perfection doesn’t exists, unless you believe in fairy tales….pretty darn close!
In the comments, we often lose sight of your opening salvos, and the great pictures. Too bad. You sir are gracious, wise, pragmatic and reasonable, not to mention humble, so kudos to you for pointing this out. Somewhere in heaven Bruce is smiling down at you with a wink…..teal eaves are hard to read. Enjoy the beautiful day here in E town!
Howard will be traded there’s only so many seats on the PP. With us not having a PP 2 Howard will never see nothing but energy minutes. Bowman needs to get value for this player comparable to what we gave up for all purpose centre who will be playing on Tampa next year.
None of this is based on anything but pure speculation and narrative.
But maybe if he says it one more time it’ll be true?
Thinking does not make it so.
As much as I hate to think about it, Nuge won’t live forever.
However, I do have some time for the idea that we could fast-forward his “development” by trading him for an older, more established player. I’ve heard rumblings that Connor McMichael could become available this summer depending on how extension talks go. He was reportedly included in conversations at the deadline so the Caps clearly aren’t against the idea of moving him.
A trade is certainly not out of the realm of possibility but my presumption is that Bowman, like me, is excited about the value he is likely able to provide on his ELC fr the next two years – his development is right on track!
I do see this scenario at the draft. Hopefully Howard keeps ripping it up in the AHL and Bakersfield goes on a run in the playoffs. We can revisit this discussion when he gets traded . These players have a small window to make cash I’m sure Hutson-Howard buy rounds for Clattenburg-Brown for keeping them safe from the yahoos looking to make a name in the AHL. How much more money will Broberg-Holloway make after Broberg asked for a trade and Holloway was is in limbo getting shunned-ignored by the Oilers on his next contract.
Issac Howard seems like a smart guy and likely understands that the way he will have an NHL coach trust him with 18 minutes in the top six is to develop his game – playing in the top 6 with Draisaitl/McDavid is likely to help one make money.
The best way to limit a ceiling is to force NHL minutes before being ready – its ruined many a good prospect.
He and Hymes are approaching their mid-30s. Scoring prowess typically drops earlier but it is inevitable. And a PP1 that plays 1:40 per PP also in isn’t inevitable, especially as the “glimmer twins” get older.
Your similar comment yesterday, was given over a dozen thumbs down.
You may be on your own with this take.
Trade wasn’t overly a bad bet given they were hoping to add a top 6 offensive winger option that potentially might catch start of season.
Advanced timeline on a coin flip bet only available as howard and agent weren’t keen on opportunity to be given a shot in tampa.
Only confusing thing:
How many comments you’ve made complaining through entire season why he wasn’t playing on 1st line and just rotting down in AHL suddenly just complwtely flipped.
If you’re going to Bury Howard in Bakersfield you should have just kept O’Reilly. Then again it looks like we fluked out on Samanski who I hope will be our Rem Murray-Jarret Stoll Cente for many years.
“bury” – lol.
Just like Matt Savoie, after Howard got 20+ NHL games, something Savoie didn’t get as a rookie pro (and he was a 10th overall pick).
Never seen someone that doesn’t understand the concept of development for young players just turning pro – its wild stuff.
I would imagine that SOR is buried next season, maybe the season after and even after.
Savoie and Howard are not the same player not even close. I have no idea why you think they’re the same? Barring injury O’Reilly will get minutes on the big club next year guaranteed.
When did I ever say they were the same? Good Grief.
We are talking development path here.
My goodness.
Why are you unable to afford Howard a year in the bake, just as everyone else gets.
He has a highly misguided sense of what winning the Hobey Baker means at the age Howard did – equates him to Cole Caufield.
Where exactly is he going to fit in unless you put Hyman or Nuge out to pasture. Bowman doesn’t have much to work with besides Samanski who’s still a project. Howard a Yankee that could go directly to an American team #1 PP Howard isn’t 19 he’s 22 years old. He will get traded at the draft.
If a team sees Howard as an immediate top 6, first PP guy then i think you entertain what the return is. I dont think there are too many teams out there that would be valuing him that high just yet. Good asset for the oilers at this point, hopefully turns into a 30 goal sorer
Where does he fit in? Exactly where Jack Roslovic his fit in this season – probably with more PP time as Nuge and Hyman get some reduced minutes.
Both William Nicholl and Tommy Lafreniere will play tonight for the Condors.
Worrying about the goaltending now – while understandable – is like wondering if your unplugged car that’s parked outside will start when there’s a snowstorm, it’s -55 and you got to be at work by 7am, which I’ve done. Hurts the brain
You forgot to add in the windshield factor.
About -63 in High Level of all places….the diesel drivers just left their trucks run all night, as I could hear the diesel hum from my cheap motel room so got little sleep too boot
2003 ish?
1988
Correction: when I read this over I said what, no, it wasn’t 1988, it was 1996 :). Was thinking of the Blazer I was driving, circa 1984, and went right back to the 80’s
I assume you mean windchill?
If so, that’s irrelevant to a vehicle. The only factor that matters in that case is absolute temperature, given windchill is a calculation rather than a measurement.
Interesting, didn’t know that. Yes, it was -55 without the windchill, -63 with it
Even colder without the windshield.
That would be true, but as I drove to my workplace, the circa 1982 Blazer I was driving was freezing cold for the entire hour long drive. The inside never warmed up. It was one of those bottom end Blazers, no paneling or insulation….so no surprise, but there was a windshield at least 🙂
the old cardboard over the grill trick might have helped – ah good chilly memories
Yah, I remember those tricks….worked well! Thanks for the image!
It’s not irrelevant to a moving vehicle though.
Double negative has me guessing a bit but most modern vehicles don’t need cardboard in the grille anymore.
And the OP was about a car starting in the morning, hence me mentioning that wind doesn’t impact the vehicle when it comes time to start.
Honestly my Ridgeline never truly gets warm on super cold days. I could probably use the cardboard.
Windchill is how we feel as the wind blows away that nice layer of warm air that sits against our skin. I think. Regardless your engine is shielded by the wind, and until it’s actually started, has no warmth to blow away!
If you look to next years November’s line up
Podkolkin-McDavid-Savoie
Howard-Driasaitl-Hyman
Hopkins-Samanski-Fredrick
Jones-Dach-Hutson
Janmark-Berezkin
Elkholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Murphy
Walman-Emberson
Statney
Ingham
Jarry
5 players under 25
bigger
top 6 retooled
bottom 6 with clear roles
Samanski – replaces Dickenson
Howard – replaces Roslivic
Dach replaces Lazar
Leaves wiggle for a(nother) goaleur.
This is the template.
I think there’s money to keep Kapanen or sign another vet to a Roslovic-like 1 year show-me.
I’d like Stan to have a 3rd goalie available in the Bake for the annual Northern Alberta goaltender crisis.
I think that’s a perennial, not an annual.
I have recently circled carl grundstrom as an interesting target on cheaper end.
His shot heat map is just fire in high danger middle of ice close to net, has plus speed and hasn’t lost a step , 6’0 w/ 200 lbs is brick shithouse territory and he rzcks up the hits at pretty solid number and since climbing back off AHL buses his numbers are pretty damn solid in philly.
With that plus skating this seems like type of guy who could be a late blooming type hard to ppay against option. The fact he suddenly this season also has pk usage kimd of backs suspicion. Last chance texaco moment and maybe he heard “this is the end”.
Unsustainable underlying a bit lucky this season but if he’s sitting there after 1st day of free agent signings and can be gotten cheaply might be good frederic insurance policy/janmark upgrade.
I really like Dach, but not as a C man. I do think they will try to resign Dickenson for 3-3.5 for 3 years. But not sure he takes that. I also think Janmark is traded. I also think they sign another top 6 forward.
I also think they try to trade for Cossa. I’m f that is the case you might see Hutson or if Detroit really pushes Howard ( If Bowman wants the kid bad enough).
But that lineup would be fun
This looks like the right starting point… do you have any idea what the cap hit will be? The internet is telling me Ingram and Jones and Murphy need to be resigned, so hopefully the GM can actually have some leftover capspace heading into the trade deadline so he can bring in a substantial player to shore up a need in time for next year’s playoffs.
Wait aren’t they trading Howard?
Ask Reja.
W/ samanski 26-14-5 56 pts 45 GP
W/O 9-14-2 20 pts 25 GP
W/ 45 GP, 158 GF, 129 GA +29
W/O 25 GP, 64 GF, 88 GA, -24
I still think better than a coinflip that trading Howard at deadline might be sell high high water mark
PP
W/ 34/152, 22.4%
W/O 16/108, 14.8%
PK
W/ 131/155, 84.5%
W/O 64/84, 76.2%
EV scoring:
W/ +11 +0.24/game
W/O -20 -0.80/game
1 GPG difference at even strength
Samanski +6
Howard +7
Howard (all strength)
W/ samanski 22GF, 11 GA, +11
W/O 17 GF, 22 GA, -5
40% of Howard’s offense is Power play
He is #7 in pts/game of all AHL players who have played over 25 games.
Of those 25 players -> he is 17th lowest % points total scored on PP.
Again given oilers power play dynamics i truly don’t think it’s overly likely even if more than a tweener oilers might be right fit as far as establishing meaingful.career. Top 6 second line against softer opposition with solid PP usage to me that is close to high ceiling if he can establish himself.
Signs point to power play merchant underwater against top AHL comp at even strength.
And even that is optimistic given how badly power play comversion rate cratered since samanski carved out fulltime NHL roster duty.
Not the straw stirring the drink seeming. Likely able to cheat more offensively with samanski on his line so cherry picking factor at least logically bubbling out from numbers a bit.
From last deep dig before deadline, of shorter than 6′ AHL forwards that came collegiate route, the “sucessful nhl career rates” were not overly encouraging.
High ceiling way above the rest on his own was guenetzel then batherson diatant second(the remaining under a handful were all 2nd line soft oppers or maybe 3rd line due to defensive chops
Guenetzal 1.09 PPG, 14.6% PPP
Howard 1.05 PPG, 40% PPP
Batherson 1.13 PPG, 24.1%
Not going to try to suss through to refine for all sub 6′ collegiate turned pro older prospects again but wouldn’t suprise me if a lot of the decent enough AHL numbers that didn’t estsblish have higher end power play merchant type effects.
Meaning while old enough to be close to man strength in AHL competition their offense is already size limited against 2nd tier level opposition at even strength.
Guentzel’s 21-year-old season was spent in the NCAA, with only 11 AHL games played (2-4-6) once his college season concluded. Are you comparing his 22-year-old season to Howard’s 21-year-old season?
Just his AHL cummulative. Nice catch. I forgot about that between the 2 searches.
I agree 100%. I just dont see him as an NHL impact player. This could be the summer where he has the most value around the league. Sell high, buy low.
Magniapane was in or just out of top 5 in the original dive. And the fail rate was massive.
The way some talk about this prospect seems to be missing context of how many draft plus years this player actually is compared to what normally is thought.
I applaud those of you who dig into the numbers. Thank you.
My method of fanning is the same as my method of competing has been.
Enjoy the hell out of winning
Forget the losses
Hope for the best.
Of course, competing has the element of what can I do to improve, whereas with fanning I can do nothing to change the situation so I fall back on the adage, accept what you cannot change.
Not sure why I rambled on, other than I do appreciate other methods of fanning which provide food for thought and much enjoyment.
Anyway, the comment I have is that about the time Samanski left the Condors, Howard nose would have just started to bend against the wall that college players tend to hit in their first pro season.
Maybe, that was has something to do with Howard’s statistical decline exacerbating the effect of Samanaki leaving.
I hope to be wrong and haven’t watched him.enough to be definitive. Just trying to put edge pieces of puzzle around him for sure.
The thimg he has goimg is skating edge is better ended. That is essential to really translate much IMO.
I also like he’s asking for PK time. Like smart enough to try to take full advantage of development opportunities rather than just treading water expecting top line a given. Solid mindset.
Likewise, there are great minds, including our host, on this blog. And, since I’m willing to learn – math not being my strong suit – their care and attention to detail brings me along nicely. I can see today’s game is not the game we saw back in the 70’s and 80’s. This said, I think there are some features of the game that still apply across different eras….another topic for another day
Prospectsolo!
With the Michiganders being ousted yesternight, David Lewandowski is the lone NAmateur whose season continues. (Actually, once the Blades moved to Round 2, he would have been the last one standing regardless.)
The Blades battle their northern neighbours in the Prince Albert Raiders. They played each other eight times in the regular season — the Raiders, who finished the season ranked #4 in the CHL, went 6-1-1. The Blades have pulled off one upset already, but do they have another one in them? We wait.
Puck drops in the Gateway to the North at 7 p.m. Neilburg (SK) time.
If Ingram is hurt and Jarry is ‘the goalie’ the Oilers are likely screwed and will struggle keeping the puck out of the net. Clanging posts behind him every game and he looks completely lost in the crease. Hopefully Ingram is ok or I’m afraid the Oilers will be golfing later this month.
Happy Friday and Good Morning to you too.
I would give Jarry one game and if he shits the bed again then I give the next game to Pickard or whomever is playing better for the Condors.
He already has multiple times, that Utah game is confirmation and enough sample size.
Jarry makes too much money to give up on especially when we’re still paying Jack Campbell for another 4 years. I wanted Binnington the gamer for 2 playoff runs instead we have Jarry for 3 runs. They need to get Jarry going as he has a long track record as being adequate.
When this team plays responsibly, all goalies look good.
When this team flails defensively, all goalies look bad, with the occasional “steal” here & there to make fans and pundits think more steals, more supernova crease play is the solution.
As for Jarry, coming in as a winning “closer” twice in recent games is, if not planned, a smart (and lucky) way to build his confidence. He’s got talent. He’s got skills. He doesn’t have confidence. The team playing a mature game in front of him will help him be the “good enough” goalie he can be.
There is zero indication that Ingram is seriously hurt – in fact, the opposite from the general manager’s mouth yesterday.
LT, where would Carfagna be on your expansion list?
He would be high. I’m going to do the defense and goaltending lists on Monday.
Bowman also said they are expecting Howard and Hutson to have similar progressions as Savoie has had in the org.
I bought some 50/50 tickets and
I am also expecting a windfall in my favor by this time Sunday morning
I don’t think Hutson is any more than a tweener but there is every reasonable chance that Howard can replicate a material portion of Roslovic’s production next season – that is far from a lottery ticket projection.
This has been my thoughts as well.
Bowman on with Stauff yesterday:
1) doesn’t think either Ingram or Dickinson is serious – he hadn’t heard that either was serious and he would have by then.
2) there have been high level talks with some of the UFAs but nothing is imminent and, for many of them, they want to see how they play in the playoffs.
3) Good talks with Milstein and Berezkin and it’s looking good for him to come over.
You would think the Oil would have called up Picard last night to practise today if Ingram isn’t good to go tom.
I would think the Oilers find out today if TJ Hughes is signing with them as they were beaten in Dbl OT last night ( great game) and he is done.
Yeah, but Minnesota has signed an actual Viking.
The Wild have signed LD Viking Gustafsson Nyberg to an entry level contract.
The 6’6″ 225 lad has been plundering the NCAA at the University of Connecticut and is described as ferocious.
Big guy
And some say in these parts, your intrepid reporting is described as atrocious.
Did you take your socks off yesterday and use all your fingers and toes for help with that standings math?
He’s scored 3 goals over the last 3 years. 0 this year. Ferociously skilled.
Hey look, it’s the Fredo Corleone of LT’s blog. “I’m smart and I want respect!”
And he should know to ‘Never take sides against the Oilers family again!’
And don’t go fishing after you just pissed Michael off
Fib sequence engaged… even stupider than the usual.
And more simple minded.
At least it’s repeatable and predictable
The “Fib sequence” needs to be patented until, of coarse, he changes handles….does anyone think he lurks on other blogs and if so, which ones? Kinda like a Jeopardy question
I’m surprised you’re back.
How is a signing from another random NHL team remotely related to this post? Your behaviours here are only amusing because they are so stupid. Keep it up, it reminds us all not to take the smart conversations here for granted when your asinine takes show up.
Now now. Don’t be too hard on the SM guy. He probably can’t help himself.
What’s it like to have no shame and to have no self awareness?