It’s been a little while since we looked at the Bakersfield Condors, thought it might be time to check in on the future. The team misses Josh Samanski a great deal, as Viljami Marjala has proven to be less of an outscorer than a power-play positive. James Hamblin is the team’s best center with Samanski in the NHL, but teams need more than one good pivot to strike fear in the hearts of opponents. Please read this.
Coach Colin Chaulk has been trying some interesting lines, but in recent days the Condors have been bleeding goals and chances. Bakersfield needs reinforcements. He is putting Alec Regula to good use, but at the expense of Beau Akey and that’s less than ideal. Damien Carfagna has emerged as the next NHL recall among prospects, although that may not come until next year.
Matvey Petrov is playing more lately, very late in his entry deal to get a push but we are here. From this group, I think Ike Howard has the brightest future and the numbers certainly agree. His even-strength point total is close to the best on the roster, and he’s giving up 20 games played to some of these guys. Now that Samanski is gone, the center quality and depth is lacking, but the wingers who should play NHL games is impressive. Howard, Quinn Hutson, Roby Jarventie have added some strong play to their respective memories. Ironically, another winger (Max Jones) showed well enough in Bakersfield but is having a bigger impact in Edmonton. You never know.
I’m worried about Beau Akey. Either he’s not 100 percent healthy or the coach doesn’t see him as one of the six best options. Not sure what is worse. When NHL teams send a young player to the farm (Alec Regula) the idea is to get him time on ice withoutt eating another prospect’s lunch. I’m hoping we see more of Akey soon.
Damien Carfagna’s outscoring prowess shines like a diamond in this group. I know it seems silly to count even-strength goals while a player is on the ice, but look at Carfagna’s +9 compare at all (but Akey), Carfagna is going to get an NHL look. Only a matter of time.
I’m kind of done with the Bakersfield goalies. Bring Connor Ungar and Samuel Jonsson up now, because the veterans aren’t the future and their now performance isn’t great. Tomkins has played a lot, but can’t be projected beyond current role. Time for the kid goalies!
On the Lowdown today, we’ll hit the ground running on a major week for the Edmonton Oilers. Jason Gregor will join us at 1:20, and we’ll talk CFL draft with Declan Krueger at 12:40. Noon to 2pm, Sports 1440 and You Tube. See you on the radio!
As injuries hit the top of Edmonton Oilers’ roster, opportunity knocks
https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7173820/2026/04/06/edmonton-oilers-lines-zach-hyman-injury-wingers/
Carter Hart with a .922 SV% over three games with Torts as coach. More than dead cat bounce, they used a coaching change to fix their goaltending. Go figure.
The desire from some on this blog to fire the coach and replace him with coaches whom he’s bounced (often repeatedly) in the playoffs in his first two seasons is one of the weirdest things to come from this season.
Me thinks it’s a cope cause these posters spent 3/4 of the year telling everyone it was a write off and how bad the team sucked so now they have to triple down given how close the team is to winning the division.
Knob and Stan seem to have retooled just swell and integrated like 1/2 of a new roster and haw seen guys from the last season or two taking very nice steps forward. But We have to fire the coach and hire a loser. Ok then, tough crowd, tough crowd.
Goaltenders posting the lowest save percentages in 30 years this season. A couple expansions and limits on clown costume sized pads have truly made a difference. Or perhaps it’s teams drafting for skill? Either way a very positive development for regular season entertainment. And that’s what sports is folks, entertainment.
A very fine milestone for Mr. Crosby yesterday. A career of consistency.
I swear some peoples knowledge of the league doesn’t extend a foot past Edmonton. You do realize this team sits behind Columbus and Detroit. The only reason this season isn’t a full retool is because they are in one of the worst divisions in decades. The Islanders are ahead of the Oilers but chose to upgrade their coach for term because they know this isn’t their year. Again, any other year they should have made the same call and be looking at next year but….
As I’ve said consistently I remain optimistic that this team can make a run for three reasons;
But this pathetic division might end up being a curse instead of a blessing. The absolute worst case scenario is that they take a terrible lesson from like, a first round win against the Ducks, and go ahead a sign guys like Murphy, Dickinson and miss out on a guy like Cassidy.
Or we think this team isn’t nearly as good as previous seasons and we come to vent/discuss on an Oiler blog that some of us have spent the last twenty years reading and/or commenting on.
Strange that this annoys some people.
I think this team had been catosraphically mismanaged and I won’t come back on any of the glass is full posters and chastise them for voicing their opinions on an Oiler blog when the piper is paid.
I think Knobber is very vanilla. However, firing him this late in the season would be a terrible move.
That said, your argument that Knobber is a superior coach to Cassidy because the Oilers beat Vegas is silly. You are aware that Cassidy has a Cup, and beat, you guess it, Florida in the Finals.
The low SV% are caused by the league counting shots differently, by using puck tracking. Shots are down. Goals are down vs 21-22. Offensive bump happened four seasons ago, The low SV% this season is just a numbers thing due to shot count.
https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/stats.html
Summarizing!
Lewandowski opened the scoring on the PP with his 3rd of the playoffs. He later drew an aPPle on the OT winner as the Blades won 3-2 to take the series in 7. They now advance to play the rival PA Raiders in Round 2.
Prospecting takes a break until Thor’s Day.
One thing I applaud the management staff on is taking shots on former 1st round picks. Guys like Kapanen (#22, 2014), Podkolzin (#10, 2019), Jones (#24, 2016), Lazar (#7, 2013) and Savoie (#9, 2022).
All these guys were picked in the first round because they had obvious talents that maybe hadn’t fully blossomed with their original teams. They may all have been regarded as future top 6 mainstays but now we’re finding value in deploying them from Line 1 to line 4 in areas of need.
I just posted the same down below … I agree that going after former first and second round players that have seen their stock drop with their original organizations can be a good way to accumulate talent on the cheap.
I wish our GMs were a bit more savvy – I’d look around the league at teams that have recently undergone a change in management, and start targeting their former first and second round players that were drafted by the team’s previous GM. These players often find themselves sliding down their original team’s depth charts, as the new GM drafts and develops “his guys”. That’s basically what St. Louis did when they double offer sheeted Holloway and Broberg.
Colorado has built a roster very heavily based on acquiring players who required a second (or third) opinion.
Necas
Nichushkin
Lehkonen
Colton
Drury
Kiviranta
Kelly
Toews
All contributing in a major way.
Neither Necas nor Lehkonen required a second opinion – they were established players and value was paid for them and that established value.
Both did.
Necas was very unhappy with his role and ice time in Carolina and had been agitating for a trade for a couple of seasons and after trade has exploded on the Avalanche top line, the definition of a second opinion.
Lehkonen was under-utilized in Montreal and was acquired for a failed late first round pick along with pocket lint.
Also playing on the top line, Lehkonen has pretty much doubled his scoring totals in Colorado after the Avs gave him his second opinion.
You’re really stretching the meaning of “getting a second opinion” huh? Very on brand for you.
Don’t forget those classic ‘second opinions’ they have going on in Vegas, in the form of Marner, Eichel, Stone, Hanifin, Hertl and Andersson.
Can’t forget how the Oilers thought they would give Hyman a second opinion after he was underutilized in Toronto and now his point production has basically doubled.
Ah yes, Hyman, the definition of a second opinion.
#97 himself is the definition of a second opinion. The lottery balls asked moneypuck how the leafs media would treat him and when moneypuck said the chances were 64% that it would be really bad, the lottery balls sent him our way.
Hue difference between a second opinion and a retirement contract.
I mean, you’re making up your own criteria and meaning to these things so only you would know the difference.
Very good point. Cant recall if Zegras was drafted by the Anaheim GM but that kind of target would be nice. Maybe McTavish is that guy
Holland&Sons first draft for us Ken took the project Broberg at 8 the Ducks took Zegras at 9 Pod was picked next by Canucks at 10 Guerin ran to the podium to pick Boldy at 12 and the Habs picked a undersized shoot first future Hobey Baker winner Caufield at 15.
What a draft. I think I wanted Zegras there. Tyler Wright did good there though IMO
Ah, I dunno. Some of us remember the DoD Oilers picking up Gilbert Brule (#6), Cam Barker (#3), and Kyle Turris (#3). Barker and Turris were putrid for the Oilers.
This was mentioned in LT’s recent Owen Michaels article, but for anyone who missed it (with slight adornment from yours truly):
Michaels shall wear upon his back
The #27 of Brett Kulak
Or, to take an older tack,
The #27 of Georges Laraque.
If I might be so bold, some might even call me old, further back might I go,
The #27 of Dave Semenko
My Mom’s favourite Oiler. I have the #27 jersey(CCM) hanging on the wall. Was the only jersey she ever had.
Super nice guy, like so many guys that tough. Some buddies of mine used to run into him at the Strath (we grew up in Strathcona and Garneau) and shoot pool with him. Not sure what brought him there, the Strath was pretty grungy back then. Maybe the cheap beer!
That must have been a neat experience for your buddies.
I met him briefly, years after he had retired at a Carnival of Champions that I had taken my little brother to. He was kind enough to autograph my brother’s jersey and he had a photo taken with him. Just an awesome guy all around.
I can confirm the Strath stayed grungy up until it closed and they continued to serve beer for the cheapest legal price. Also Thats funny I grew up in Old Strathcona too, went to King Edward and I believe Semenko’s kid went there too. My mom used to see him picking up his kid, also said he was a nice guy
Semenko was a rock star the exhibition match with Ali was classic. Semenko grew up and played in Mantobia not many silver spoons back then. I met Dave a few times blue collar sense of humour. I would say he felt more at home with the grunts at the Strath-Commercial then hanging out at the preppy bars Goose Loonies-Barry T’s-Denny Andrews.
What is the trade value of a spectacular coach? Would you trade a first for Jon Cooper or Paul Maurice when this team is in it’s championship window? If so then the acquisition of Cooper or Maurice is valued about the same as the acquisition of John Carlson. More really because Carlson isn’t signed.
I ask this because there’s one guy left from the top tier of coaches if you believe in these consensus rankings.
Cooper, Maurice, Brindy, Bednar and likely DeBoer and…Bruce Cassidy.
So if you value coaching there’s a John Carlson-level addition just sitting there in Bruce Cassidy available for anyone to sign and it doesn’t cost you a first rounder.
Yup he’s the last current top coach available. I am not familiar with his style, if it’s too D oriented it won’t work in Edmonton. Like Torts or Tocchet wouldn’t. Which is why I thought DeBoer, he likes offense
DeBoer used the same stretch passes that Knobber uses. I am not convinced DeBoer would have been a good fit in Edmonton.
Guess we got lucky then
What was the evaluation process to come up with your ‘top tier’ coaches?
As far as I can tell, two on that list don’t have cups, and one hasn’t even made the cup final while being 1-12 in conference finals.
Will Mcdavid every take a run at Sidney Crosby’s magical 21 consecutive seasons at over a point per game?
Yesterday, with Crosby’s 3 assist game, he will mathematically finish above a point per game again this season even if he goes pointless the rest of the way.
He has accomplished this in all 21 seasons he’s played.
This is one of the most impressive offensive stats in the history of the game imo. He beat Gretzky’s record of 19 seasons last year. Gretz missed 1 ppg in his last (20th) season. It boggles my mind that none of the media is covering this story.
It was covered yesterday.
I posted a link to the NHL announcement.
But it certainly deserves more attention.
McDavid night get there if he plays until he’s 39.
Frank S. tweeting the Oilers as the “betting favourite” for sought after DEL 21 yo winger Veit Oswald. Seems to profile like a younger Samanski?
https://www.eliteprospects.com/player/704963/veit-oswald
Count me as intrigued and hopeful we can get it done to add to ze German pipeline.
Nicely done, Stan and Kalle!
If it gets done, suspect we can credit Drai and Samanski a bit too. Unsure the role Dallas Eakins may play here like he did with Samanski.
100%. Pretty smart to be targeting there and using Leon as a recruiter. What better pitch than the best German hockey player ever will be your mentor.
I would say Leon dad is a pretty good pipeline for the Oilers. There’s twice as many Germans than Canadians the country is building the infrastructure for hockey all through Deutschland. I think we see a boon of Germans making the NHL in the next 10 years. I also think Leon at some point will be the Oilers Coach then G.M after he retires.
Infamous Oiler Tobias Rieder is on that team
Coach’s name is Oliver David not to be confused with former Oiler 20 goal scorer David Oliver
Yes someone on Twitter pointed out that Kalle Larsson was the GM of Dubuque in the USHL I believe when Oliver was the coach
Olivier had sneaky good shot but his skating was in quicksand.
Per Spec:
Speaking with Knoblauch, it sounds like Draisaitl is a ‘maybe’ for Game 1 of the playoffs.
Hyman should play reg season games.
With another win or two the Oilers should be sitting McDavid, Nuge, Ekholm, and possibly other vets for the balance of the regular season.
It really doesn’t matter if we start at home or on the road, or whether we play Vegas, Anaheim, or Utah. What matters most is having the team’s best 6 or 7 players at their healthiest for the playoff run.
It would sure be nice to win the division but I agree that, ultimately, it doesn’t really matter. The Oilers should be able to beat any team they’ll face in the first two rounds whether they start at home or on the road.
With that said, I do think the team will continue to play and press for that division.
Even if there was (or becomes) “nothing to play for”, I would suggest that, sure, a couple of games off at the very end would be prudent, neither the players nor the coaches will want 3, 4, 5 games off – they will want to stay “in the routine” heading in to the playoffs and won’t want, say, 10 days between games.
K.K and SB both knew Leon-McDavid would get no rest during the Olympic break . Yet K.K pounded Leon-Connor right up to the Olympics while after having 2 of the shortest offseason in playoff history. Injuries usually happen when you’re young over-exuberant, physically tired and when you get old. Actually SB gave K.K some young horses to be used instead of pounding the piss out of Connor-Leon. I think maybe the contract extension went to K.K head a bit. If we don’t have at least a 75% Leon as well as a 90% Hyman-RNH-McDavid then we better get a Roloson heater or we won’t last long.
Per Stauff (I think this is about “right”):
Podkolzin-McDavid-Savoie
Roslovic-RNH-Kapanen
Dach/Samanski-Dickinson-Frederic
Jones-Henrique-Lazar
Ekholm-Bouchard
Nurse-Murphy
Walman-Emberson
Stastney
Jarry
Ingram
Which one are you sitting out? Which 2 when 29 returns. Which 3 when 18 arrives .
This will be a question heading in to the playoffs and tough to answer until we see how the team, and the individuals are playing.
I think the organization’s default will be having Frederic and Henrique as 11F/12F meaning each of Jones, Samanski, Lazar, Dach are on the outside looking in if fully healthy.
I know much of the fanbase would sit Rico (and never play him again) and, while I do think his lineup spot could be at risk (at least here and there), I don’t imagine the coaching staff won’t default to having him in for game 1, at the very least.
Frederic similar to Rico (although if his game falls back off……).
Yes, these should have been the lines against VGK. I don’t know why coach KK switched up the lines against VGK so much during a 5 game winning streak – seems much beyond conventional
Carfagna is definitely the most under-talked about prospect on the team. He is a very good puck transitioner and a solid defender. He has a real chance to play in the NHL. His stature is the only issue but it’s not prohibitive.
We really don’t have much for D prospects other than him and Akey. Would be nice to swap a couple of Marjala, Hutson, Jarventie etc. for a D prospect or two
Happy Easter Monday Every Body. Have a blessed day.
Likewise
STL is going to be trouble if they can make the wildcard.
Watched them outplay Colorado in Denver last night and they continue stellar play with a 3-2 win led by their top line.
Robert Thomas 3 goals
Dylan Holloway 3A
And for those keeping score at home…rookie Jimmy Snuggerud also 3 assists….now .0656 PTS/GP
The Blues are now 3 points out of the last wildcard, so a long shot, but hold the RW tie breaker against every other contender.
This does not make sense lol. Please revise.
VAN is going to be trouble if they can make the wildcard. I watched them waltz into Denver and put up 8 goals.
Brock Boeser 3 goals
Marcus Petterson 3P
And for those keeping score at home…Leakenzie Blackwood gave up 6….with a .684 sv%
Fib sequence engaged: Input irrelevant.
Output = Oilers bad/All other teams better.
The only reason he is posting about STL is because Holloway and Broberg play there.
Notice how he never posted about Nashville creeping up the standings? But I bet if Reid Schaefer put up 3A in his last game he would have.
They would be trouble in a round 1 matchup against Colorado?
It seems so.
They beat Colorado last night and the Avalanche played very well.
The Holloway – Thomas – Snuggerud line was dominant generating 17 SOG.
Joel Hofer was spectacular in net and now holds a .910 save percentage for the season.
Of note, Hofer has started 39 games for the Blues while Binnington has started 37.
The same two teams face off again tomorrow night in St. Louis in a game that will likely decide if the Blues remain in the hunt.
SJ, ANA, UTAH, now STL – all going to be trouble.
Just like LA last year (and then Vegas and then Dallas).
I read from a moneypuck source that the kings and preds, if they play their cards right, could BOTH get 3 points tonight and that if that happens, the Oilers would LOSE 3 points. The flames would be awarded those 3 Oiler points and Flippin’ Bocce would finally get the kudos he thinks he deserves.
You are jinxing my second team! -).
If Samanski’s EV outscoring has translated well to the NHL, maybe Jarventie’s even better EV outscoring will also translate.
I’d like to know which scout was responsible for finding the undrafted, unheralded Damien Carfagna. That was a real nice bit of work.
Akey should have been traded for help or another prospect already. Unfortunately it is likely too late for that.
None of the D are scoring AHL goals, which can be a shorthand scouting report for non-specialist D. The have work to do in this area.
Hutson’s ahead of Howard until he’s not…if that ever actually happens. Both have what it takes if the team knows how to use them. Hutson’s a smarter and calmer player, which helps him with the Oilers crew.
They’re actually looking at at least 4 forwards who aren’t primarily on the NHL roster but can help out the playoff depth and displace the old crew at the start of next year. That’s a good place to be if they don’t mess with it.
A team starting the year with Hutson, Samanski, Howard and Jarventie near the bottom of the order would be quite lovely.
And Clattenburg in permanent marker on line 4. Will be a hell of a thing to have one of those players again. If they get up against a scrappy opponent in the playoffs, you should play him, even if it is just for one game. They won’t, but they should.
Are Dach and Clattenburg competing for same spot? Could you have room for both?
I don’t see Dach as having much potential. Clattenburg is a unique animal. If Dach finds scoring touch, there might something there.
I think Dach will surprise. Suspect there’s some offense there.
It would certainly be handy. They haven’t had one of those sort in a long while either.
I’m still looking for the 2026 edition of Bill Guerin though.
I’m curious. Why the suspicion about offence? What’s the tell?
Dach and Clattenburg are both fighting for that fourth line winger spot … aka – guy who can play 5-6 minutes a night and hit everything that moves.
Unlike Clattenburg, Dach was producing pretty decent offence in his first two AHL seasons straight out of junior hockey (without his totals being boosted by PP time). Like Clattenburg, Dach’s shown a willingness to do the thing that’s hard in the NHL … bring a physical brand of hockey on every shift.
Dach is the more substantial player based on the better offence totals in the AHL, combined with having a higher pedigree. But as always, its depends on opportunities given, and injuries sustained.
And he is bigger, older, and has 80 games of NHL experience. Dach is the superior player if you are considering actual hockey skills.
Thanks
I had a look at Curlock’s “welcome” post about Dach. Among other positives, Curlock notes that Dach had interesting numbers when on Bedard’s line. He projects him as a possible heir to the fabled Maroon.
https://open.substack.com/pub/bcurlock/p/meet-the-new-guy-colton-dach?utm_campaign=post-expanded-share&utm_medium=web
I don’t get why we going are back to under sized prospect players, especially D. Unless they are very special in some way they should invest development in players with more NHL type attributes
I like the bet on Howard, if he chooses to he can follow the path of Caufield and develop a solid game and score a bunch of goals
If a small player doesn’t have a top 6 or top 4 projection, and isn’t a psycho like Marchand, do we want mild mannered smaller role players? I don’t, because NHL playoffs. Somebody has to bring the physicality, and I prefer that’s not most of the talented guys very much. Drai is pretty big, bit he’s not 220lb Barkov, and Drai gets hurt
I’ve spoken against the current NHL build trend a couple times now. These guys don’t appear to be adding the upper body muscle mass they did in the past. Connor and Leon both look borderline malnourished as the season ends. Time to trend in the other direction. You need the excess and the strength to survive the playoffs – whatever your height. And you don’t need to be 185 at six-two to play quickly.
Strength is a thing in any sport, but especially a contact sport. Connor could use more upper body strength to help take the amount of abuse he does. Even if he loses a bit of speed in some way, he’s not walking teams anymore, he might find being stronger adds to his game
Top 10 scorers this season, only Kucherov is a pretty light player, and he’s still 6 feet. There are of course really good smaller players, my thing is that they are all top level talent if they are helping much. If a player isn’t, no point as I see it, get a normal sized player
People are high on Carfagna, I see a 170lb D that only has 22 points in 60 AHL games at 23YO. He will have a hard time defending forwards in the NHL, who ‘on average’ have 30 lbs on him. I got the bet on Leppanen bcs of his offense in Finland, but when I read he’s an average skater I knew it likely wouldn’t work out in NA at his size
At what point did he have value to help now?
He’s also a rookie pro.
Maybe at some point a Bourgault for Jarventie type trade
This is based on what? Have you watched them play for the Condors?
Howard is a much more substantial player right now than Quinn Hutson in all areas but the PK (and Hutson won’t be killing at the NHL level any time soon).
Right now Clatt is a permanent market on the 4th line in the AHL – he’s refusing to, in the words of his coach, “play hockey”.
LT has always had a soft spot for Oilers prospects. It’s an endearing trait, that has given us beleaguered Oilers fans H-O-P-E for many years, amid a morass of mediocre management of this club. He’s not the only one … remember when people were pumping the tires on Matvie Petrov?
I really like the bets that Bowman has been making in targeting players of high pedigree that have spent some time enough in the minors to have the bloom fade from their initial high valuation based on draft position. Sometimes a team drafts and then tries to develop too many high pedigree players at once, and some of these guys end up being traded for pennies on the dollar, then becoming better pros in their 2nd or 3rd NHL organization, after they’ve had some time to mature. Podkolzin and Dach fit the mold, as does Poulin. Some of these bets will pay off; I wish the team would double down on this approach.
Remember when everyone was clutching their pearls about Pickard getting sent down?
It was so very foolish not to take make a waiver claim on Michael DiPietro … he’s sporting a 1.95 GAA and 0.929 Sv% in the Ahl this season, but can’t get into the Bruins roster. He’s posted great numbers in the AHL for years and is ready to given a chance at an NHL crease. Instead, Bowman went after the big name goalie in Jarry, and now we’re stuck with another untradeable goalie contract … the organization has been fumbling the ball the past several years going after these big name, big salary acquisitions.
LT’s right about about the vet goalies getting all the playing time in the Bake. Neither one of those guys have an NHL future … Ungar should have been kept on the roster, and Jonsson should have been called up by now. Maybe neither one of them succeeds enough to have an NHL career, but they’re never going to have a chance if they’re being kept in the ECHL behind Tomkins and Pickard.
Prospectitunity!
Lewandowski and the Blades could not seal the deal yesterday, so now have to participate in the Dub’s only opening-round Game 7. As he was not a resoupient in Game 6, he remains at 2G, 4A for the series.
Puck drops at 7 p.m. Westerose time.