In speaking to Oilers fans over the last few days, there seems to be at least some desire for the team to shake loose some cap room and spend it on one or two of the available free agents. I don’t think it’s wise. First, the organization has several big UFA signings since 2015 summer that can be described as wasteful or counterproductive. You can choose more colorful words, but over the piece there’s been some clangers along with the bangers.
Second, this is not a strong year in free agency. Let’s see the list of RFA’s who don’t get qualified. Let’s see who signs a big name in free agency and then needs to offload a current roster player to make it work.
It seems to me general manager Ken Holland might want to paint around the edges of free agency in the next 10-14 days. As July begins reaches middle and end, perhaps stronger opportunities will present themselves.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: 4 impact QMJHL centres for Oilers to target late in 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- DNB: Five burning Edmonton Oilers questions ahead of the NHL Draft and free agency
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers and Russian draft picks haven’t worked — yet
- DNB: How Emily Cave found that ‘joy and grief can coexist’ in writing her book about Colby
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers roster construction missing one final piece
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
- Lowetide: Predicting Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 2023-24 stats
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland on salary cap space, Steve Staios, 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
This is a must to avoid. The Oilers have four contracts (Darnell Nurse, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Jack Campbell) that run past Connor McDavid’s final year and run around $25 million. Adding another big contract to that group now locks out a lot of options down the road.
OPTIONS
Here’s an example of option freedom. The Oilers are looking to offload Kailer Yamamoto, and will either buy him out or trade him in the next few weeks. It would be nice to have the option of keeping him, as a third-line contributor and insurance against injury. Edmonton doesn’t have that gear, the cap room is needed. One way the club has closed off options. Spending money elsewhere, even wisely, means there are things that could improve the roster that cannot be pursued.
The Oilers did some fine work last season in adding useful pieces with lower cap numbers. Stuart Skinner (drafted and developed), Evan Bouchard (D&D), Philip Broberg (D&D), Vincent Desharnais (D&D), Klim Kostin (trade), Derek Ryan (UFA), Ryan McLeod (D&D), Dylan Holloway (D&D) all represent value for dollars and made well below $2 million. That’s eight names.
So this year, there are signed players who should/could offer value in this range. I would include Derek Ryan, Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais. That’s five. When fans talk about adding Travis Konecy for Kailer Yamamoto and Philip Broberg, it disconnects the roster in a harmful way and cuts off options.
I think, and wrote all spring, the play here is to turn the current five value deals under $2 million (Broberg, Holloway, Desharnais, Ryan, Lavoie) into eight such deals. How does one do that?
The first option is signing Ryan McLeod and Klim Kostin to contracts under $2 million.
Next up is getting Evan Bouchard signed for $3 million. I fear this is where the 16 shells from a thirty-ought six will come. The longer this goes on, and I expect we’re looking at an Ethan Bear-Ryan McLeod scenario, the more likely we see a loud noise. We’ll see. When a general manager arrives after a player is drafted, things change. Brothers become cousins. Same as it ever was.
LOWETIDE VERSUS MCKENZIE
Ordinarily I do an entire mock draft around now, but the Oilers have so few picks it would just be an M draft. Instead, here are the names that are listed on my ranking at No. 56 or higher, while being below No. 56 on Mr. McKenzie’s list. If the Oilers’ list lines up with mine, and there are 13 names available they like, trading down is a reasonable option.
Corey Pronman and Scott Wheeler have their final rankings out, both exceptional as always and offer great insight into these players. I was especially interested in views of Luca Cagnoni and Jayden Perron.
- Note: First number is my ranking on the final Lowetide list.
- 23. RW Jayden Perron, Chicago Steel (USHL). Small and extremely talented offensive player. I have him at No. 23, the McKenzie consensus list has Perron ranked No. 58. I think something happened during the year to knock him down the list, Red Line has him No. 64 overall. I don’t change my list, and he’s fast and skilled and posted strong numbers on a team other than the USNDTP.
- 36. C-RW Mathieu Cataford, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL). Substantial offense Red Line comparison (Philip Danault) should have the Oilers interested. Edmonton has drafted from the QMJHL often in recent years, I expect he’ll be somewhere in the top 50 on Tyler Wright’s list.
- 37. RW Felix Unger Sorum, Leksands (J20 Swe). Exceptional passer, undersized. I wrote at length about this player, he would be a fine selection. McKenzie has him No. 85 and Red Line 101, if the team trades down Sorum would be even better value.
- 38. LW Roman Kantserov, Magnitogorsk (MHL). Small, extremely skilled winger. Red Line has him No. 58 and McKenzie No. 59.
- 40. RW Will Whitelaw, Youngstown Phantoms (USHL). Fast, great hands, slick. Small.
- 41. LW Aydar Suniev, Penticton Vees (BCHL). Impact junior, complete skills, skating a worry.
- 44. RC Jonathan Fauchon, BB Armada (QMJHL). A quality two-way center, late arrival to the list.
- 46. LD Luca Cagnoni, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). Small, very skilled blue. Red Line calls him a PP genius.
- 48. RD Beau Akey, Barrie Colts (OHL). Two-way D with plus speed.
- 49. LC Andrei Loshko, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL). Quick, creative, great passer.
- 50. RW Yegor Sidorov, Saskatoon Blades (WHL). Huge numbers, older prospect. Big shot.
- 54. RW Coulson Pitre, Flint Firebirds (OHL). PF prospect, impressive offense, good skater.
- 56. RW Ryan Conmy, Sioux City Musketeers (USHL). Huge spike during the season. October 2004.
I think the Oilers trade down and add a selection. If I had to guess, defense would be the priority and I would not rule out a goalie if they like a specific stopper. There are some fine names on this list.
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
https://theathletic.com/4636421/2023/06/24/oilers-prospect-jayden-grubbe-ahl/
Nice writeup LT.
Glad to hear this part: “The WHL scouts I reached out to were generous in their praise of the player and the value received for the pick by the Oilers.“
You know how NHLE takes into account different leagues to make different equivalencies? I feel like small skilled forwards need that. Their value needs to be reduced based on statistical expectancy for small forwards over time. They are consistently faded for a reason, and I think you could mathematically fade them as well based on statistical averages.
Why not just measure their performance? If they are eroding, their numbers will erode too.
Best case scenario is if Yamo could be used to replace the 3rd and 4th round picks. I’m on board with trading Kulak as well now as his value will probably never be higher and Broberg can take his slot. Yamo-Kulak-Ceci out for an upgrade to Nurse’s RH partner, cap space and some extra picks.
Very happy Johansen is in COL – the guy is the very opposite of a winner and is a real downgrade on Landeskog
Did the Avs take a bit of a step back when Sakic went upstairs?
Last year I had said that I didn’t love the Josh Manson contract. Manson is 31, but he’ll be 32 at the start of next season. He has 3 more years left at $4.5m cap. His fancies aren’t great and he’s sort of a #5 in toi/game last season, barely ahead of the venerable Jack Johnson though the Avs had lots of injuries on d last season. That’s a very pricey bottom pairing d, though maybe you could argue he’s a 4/5.
With Macfarlane at the helm, they inked the questionable Manson contract and now traded for Ryan Johansen, ostensibly to centre their second line for $4m cap.
Johansen had some type of emergency surgery after a skate blade injury to his leg in February. He didn’t play after that. I haven’t watched him lately, but you’d worry more about the wheels after a leg injury.
Avs are another team that might immediately benefit from a cap boost and series of such. not saying they factored that in but it’s where things are going once again.
Manson is one of their tough guys. Their is a premium for that
What I like about what they do is doing something, and addressing issues with the best available option. We know they’ve looked from the Johansen deal. Manson can be sheltered when needed
You can’t have cap efficiency if you’re sheltering a guy paid like a second pair dman who plays on the third pair. Over here in Oilerville, folks keep trading away Kulak at half the price to do the same thing, and he can chuck ’em too (if not being a tough guy).
Did I mention that Colorado has $15,575,000 in free cap space after acquiring Johansen?
That is the definition of cap efficiency.
I mean they have 14 players signed right? So 15 mill spread over 7-8 guys. Now if landeskog was healthy they would have 8 mil to pay 6-7 guys. Wonder what happens to landeskog over the next 6 years.
Either way, not sure they are swimming in cap space.
Manson is also a right shot D which is another premium.
Withe Avs declining to extend Erik Johnson, I would guess they will look for another big D on their bottom pair.
You’re kind of a big D.
Expect a call.
Ryan:
———-
Craig Morgan@CraigSMorgan
Per league source, the Coyotes are closing in on a three-year deal with RFA goaltender Connor Ingram.
Looks like the Coyotes will run it back with the Vejmelka-Ingram tandem next season.
This would allow Ivan Prosvetov more time to develop in Tucson (AHL).
———-
Elliotte Friedman@FriedgeHNIC·12m
More on this…word is it will be 3x$1.95M
Thanks. As I’ve said, I think Ingram is going to spike next season. We’ll see.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
·
2m
In addition to this currently-delayed Philadelphia trade with St. Louis, there is word the Flyers are also working on a Tony DeAngelo trade that would return him to Carolina. That one might also wait until tomorrow.
Wonder if that signals something about Pesce..
LeBrun now saying Flyers expected to retain 50%.
So Burns/Pesce/DeAngelo would be very affordable.
I think the Canes issue is the extension on Pesce being too high (or higher than they want). They have been trying to re-sign him but, if they can’t get it done soon, they may move him.
I had read a funny quote during last season from Tortorella about how they had no idea how bad he was defensively until he played for them. Carolina’s team and system hides a lot.
Johansen has me thinking, so we’ve lost to cup champs twice, and as Marssechault said we aren’t up to 5v5 play with Vegas and couldn’t handle the Avs
Why? To me it’s because both teams do very smart things to actively deal with big holes and find cap value. Both of them also have their first round picks and Vegas only missing a 2nd. They also have coaches that create solid team play
The Avalanche are in a very interesting position.
After the Johansen acquisition, they have their top 6 locked up, and other than Bowen Byram, their powerful top 4 D are secured, and their goaltending duo comes in at just over $5 million.
They have more than $15 million in cap space to extend Byram and build a bottom 6 and bottom D pairing.
Its a very unusual for a recent cup winner to have that kind of flexibility and speaks to their masterful cap management…zero dead cap.
That’s what I was getting at
The talk of no cap space and whatever can’t happen player wise is all a construction of the GMs mind and vision
Yes…and also an indication of poor cap management by numerous teams.
It speaks to a landeskog injury.
Johansen will be very interesting in Colorado next season. Two seasons ago, he had a bounce back year in Nashville with 63 points (2nd highest total w/the Preds and 3rd best in his career). But last year, he fell back to the level that frustrated not just Hynes, but Laviolette before. By the middle of the year, he was playing 3C and 4C as his game lacked fire (which has been the biggest complaint about him).
He’s not a driver of offense anymore, and has a pass first mentality – which worked when paired w/Forsberg and this is what HH references when saying if paired w/Rantanen, he could bounce back.
But he’ll be 31 next season and he is trending as a 3C. He’s not a lock for a solid top 6 at this point of his career and Colorado is taking a significant gamble on an asset that Poile has been trying to give away for 3 years.
Holy $&@#.
I swear that I was just going to post yesterday that Durzi would be a good buy low candidate though the Kings wouldn’t have sent him to us, not to mention that we didn’t have the pick required. Durzi had his struggles last year, but he sure looked like a player the year prior.
Jeff Gorton is a piss-cutter. Thanks for taking him off the Kings and weakening them, Jeff!
https://twitter.com/frank_seravalli/status/1672703904276946947
He didn’t go to Montreal, he went to Arizona.
Lol. Yeah. My reading comprehension is off today.
Happens to most of us haha
Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence are better.
And, of course, the Kings now have additional cap space for a substantial move.
They are NOT weaker.
The return on the trade looks more than a little light for LA, imo. Durzi had some struggles defending, particularly in the playoffs. I think the trade was a steal for Arizona. I think Durzi’s going to be really good in a few years. Maybe like Vince Dunn.
Yeah…perhaps but I would imagine Blake explored other trade options before pulling the trigger.
Thing is the Kings still have 4 RD and I would think he wanted to clear space before the draft so he has maximum flexibility.
Easy there tiger, don’t get too ahead of yourself.
Clarke has played 45 pro games and Spence is a 5′-10″ defenseman who has played 30 NHL games. There will be lots of ups and downs for these two moving forward into a full time roll.
They have Matt Roy for cover.
Theyll be fine.
Oilers certainly do have a 2nd round draft pick in 2024…….
It’s true the Oilers are so close, could have won it all last year and this year. I listen to Holland, he has lived it. The playoffs reveal what your team lacks, but it’s not easy to improve a Cap team. You deed D&D players to step in and contribute. Last year we saw it, we need it again this year. Training camp and the first 50 games have to be auditions for rookies, and hopefully one or two can move the needle, just a little is all we need). Assess at deadline.
Signing Connor Brown is not the answer.
So who are the best bets internally to fill 2RW, 4C, and give our defense a bit of a boost?
I hope we find a way to keep Kostin and Bjugstad (on the cheap) and we graduate a Condor to the bigs who can contribute.
April is sooooo far away……
I prefer to think of it as next June is soooo far away…. We wanna CUP!!!
One waits till the trade deadline to see if Broberg fails to displace Ceci, and no one emerges at RW.
Patience last year, waiting, got the Oilers Ekholm. Wait for the right player to become available, and wait for you draft and develop guys to obviate the need.
This is the way.
Why do we have to wait so long for more of that? Binging is fun but 1-3 year waits are DoD
Waiting until the deadline is prudent. You get a chance to see what you have in the young guys before potentially dumping them too soon. They may be a cheap long term solution that still helps you win next year.
Yes
But I meant The Mandelorian
Ugh flew right over me. Too many beer on the golf course yesterday.
You’re right on that.
2RW
Warren Foegle the one realistic option
Holloway in the conversation but likely starting on the 3rd line and didn’t play RW in college, the AHL or NHL that I have seen
Lavoie a long shot to step in to the top six. He’s not even a lock to be an NHL player right now and I would note he played LW all last season
4C
D. Ryan – not a great option. He’s winger and face-off guy at this stage
D. Holloway – not a great option
Defence
Broberg
Niemo will not give the defence a boost
Dineen struggles defensively at the AHL level
Kemp could see games but unlikely to provide a big impact.
Im not positive he will sign at a low AAV with bonuses but, if that is the case, he could very well be part of the answer as Hyman-like work ethic player that is better defensively and, importantly for this team, a high minute PK1 guy
Yes yes, but if we asked the same question last year, i don’t think anyone would have said “Vinny D is our guy!” Maybe somebody pops in camp or on a call-up.
A team has to be able to solve at least some personnel issues internally, through D&D. These are not always easy to forecast, and i would love to be surprised, like how Vinny D surprised us last year.
I agree with almost everything from this and your first post except for “Signing Connor Brown is not the answer.“.
Draft and develop for sure. And hopefully there will be more (good) surprises from Bakersfield this coming season.
But signing Connor Brown could absolutely be an answer.
He’s been a legit top 6 forward in the NHL. A cheap one-year deal could pay off in a pretty big way (ie – significantly better than Yamamoto for 1/3 the cap hit).
If things go well, with the cap going up next year Brown could also become a multi-year solution.
It’s not quite D+D, but signing Connor Brown (if he’s willing) is very much a procurement opportunity that the Oilers should take advantage of if they can.
This is where I land.
I don’t disagree (although there isn’t likely any other prospect in the origination likely to pop out of nowhere to the level of an NHL player next season – maybe Bourgault.
The premise of Brown is a Yamamoto-replacement at a much reduced cap hit that doesn’t limit cap for there purposes.
Brown competing with Foegele for 2RW which the other solidifying the 3rd line with Kostin/Holloway/Lavoie (and even Ryan who showed well with McLeod/Foegle) would be fantastic.
If Brow does require a guaranteed $3MM AAV deal then, well, the Oilers would need to move out a second player and that’s a totally different conversation with a player that comes with risk.
I would like to see Kane at 2rw and McLeod as 2lw. Watching McLeod’s zone entry with speed is close to Connor. I have mistaken the 2 several times last year.
I think Sörum Unger is excellent value based on where he’s ranked. To my eye he’s, short of injuries, a pretty sure thing to be an NHLer in some form and with an okish chance to end up a top six player. Getting that type of prospect in the 3rd-4th round where he’s typically ranked is pretty damn good. Still physically undeveloped but skill, brains, vision is there.
Always appreciate your prospect impressions. Maybe a long shot but any thoughts on 19 yo LD Rasmus Larsson?
I like what Ive read on his raw tools, including skating, and think he could be a great fit with one of our late picks. On his way to Northern Michigan after next year in the ushl, the ultimate draft and follow as LT might say.
I like him as a late rounder, he has ability, needs time to fine tune his skillset and add strength. The college route is a good move for him. I can see him starting to put up a lot of points in his 2nd, 3rd year there.
Connor McDavid now engaged (to Lauren Kyle, of course).
As the very underrated band Shocking Blue once sang “California Here I Come” Mikey Grier will be licking his chops in 2-3 Years.
Oh yessir you’re right! Oakland is one helluva destination for sports stars of all stripes these days.
their fans and franchise openers have unreal staying power and the communities enthusiasm for their teams is 2nd to none!
Happy Wife Happy Life.
What’s the connection between Lauren Kyle and California? Or are you just spouting off?
Zero – she’s from Edmonton and runs a business here. Doesn’t mean she wants to stay but it’s way more likely than someone that didn’t grow up here.
Source?
All indications I’ve come across over the years suggest she’s from Toronto, which is where they met.
Janet Jones was born in Bridgeton Missouri population 11500. I believe profession is a big indicator of where one ends up living. I don’t know if you’ve ever watched Hockey Wife’s which is heavily exaggerated but it still does ring true that Wife’s obviously have a say (Nylander) where their free agent hubbies sign. I’m not going nowhere it’s going to be some interesting when it comes to Leon then Connor decisions in the next 2-3 years.
Alright, Janet Jones. Thanks for the answer at least.
Its seems to be an obsession to compare, and try to equate, everything to the 80s – some clear resentment for everything that has changed since then.
Gretzky got married and moved with the wife to California, so……
“Can’t see the forest for the trees?”
Happy spouse, happy house.
Seravelli reporting that Durzi has been traded to the Yotes.
Friedman has the return at a 2nd rounder in 2024.
Nice of the Yotes to let another team have a second rounder over the next few seasons.
I speculated earlier today that maybe the Oilers could get a 2nd or 3rd from the Yotes for Yamo (more likely a third).
Buyout.
That’s a shitty return for LA IMO. I understand why the Kings wanted to move him, but a 24 year old D who scored 38 points in 72 games with a $1.7 million cap hit, should fetch more than a 2nd rounder.
Blake is just clearing cap (now $9 million) to make another big acquisition.
LA has two other RHD, Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence, ready to step in.
Durzi was a throw in when LA traded Jake Muzzin to Toronto and also received a first round pick that the Kings used to draft Tobias Bjornfot who is expected to assume the 3RD next season.
Like I said, I understand the rationale for moving Durzi, but the return was poor. Couldn’t even get a 2023 pick (and the Yotes have plenty).
LA has so many prospects that adding another long shot is hardly a priority.
He has $9 million in cap and only 16 players signed. Might be hard to make a big acquisition. By the time he signs Kupari and Vilardi he’ll have about $5 million left. And he needs a starting goalie. If he trades for PLD and signs a $4-5 million goalie he’ll likely need to dump another $10 million or so to fit everyone in the fold. Maybe Arvidsson is included in a deal like that. But the combination of moves required to do this all, starting with today’s move, likely doesn’t make them anything more than very marginally better. And it could make them slightly worse.
He’s undersized and not elite skill
Rarely works as is shown by how few guys like that stick anywhere. We have an outlier in Ryan, but his elite skill is exceptional hockey IQ, and he has skill
What a nice trade to dump Johansen on the Avs.
0.5 ppg player with # 1 power play time.
Ha. Yeah it looks like a laughably poor bet for Sakic. Springings must have been rock climbing with no cell phone coverage.
2010 was a bad year for hockey player aging as Chambers mentioned.Acquiring a 30 year old in the midst of rapid decline is not a typical move for the Avs.
It’s hard to imagine him being worth even $4m cap in a best case scenario though.
Other than win faceoffs, I am not sure what Johansen does well anymore. I thought he might, but he doesn’t even kill penalties.
Still the Avs never seem to miss, so you can see why Dom is careful in his wording. Maybe playing with Rantanen will reignite his career or he’ll add to their LTIR mess at some point.
A others have mentioned, it’s a terrible free agent class.
He might thrive with less pressure as we’ll as batting way down in the batting order.
He will thrive playing with Rantanen.
@Lowetide
Great bet by Colorado. For Nashville, the club gets $4 million off the books. The test of Trotz will come when he spends that money. Who is out there?
😃
Big win by Trotz. Getting out of that contract for free with only 50% retention is a lot better than I expected. I was expecting assets out to be able to dump that albatross
Looks like a win-win to me.
So it turns out to be Seth Jones for Alex Galchenyuk plus Nashville eats $4 M for two years? 😎
It’s likely to go better for Johansen, but this came to mind.
Ryan Johansen, last season in Nashville, age 29
55 12-16-28 -13 32PIM
44%GF, 49%SF, 50%xGF and 1.42 P/60 at 5v5
Kyle Turris, last season in Nashville, age 28
62 9-22-31 -9 22PIM
44%GF, 49%SF, 48%xGF and 1.64 P/60 at 5v5
Interesting bet for Sprigings, Sakic and McFarland to make (and for about 2.5X the cost of the Turris bet).
Agreed. I do not like to bet against Sakic, but the deal seems strange. Especially this early in the offseason.
Incoming HH fairytale about what a masterstroke this deal was for Sakic.
I will say, the Avs are light at centre and there are few good options available.
The case of Artturi Lehkkonen is an object lesson.
After Spriggings/Sakic identified him as a target and acquired him, he blossomed on the high powered Avalanche top 6.
His career high was 31 points and he doubled that in his first full season in Colorado after scoring multiple GWG in the playoffs.
Nashville has been one of the lowest scoring teams in the league while Colorado is among the highest scoring.
What do you think happens next?
(BTW Johansen had a PDO of only .985 last season)
Johansen scored 63 points the season before last.
What is the likelihood, in your option, that he cracks 60 in a season?
Pretty close to 100% if he stays healthy.
JT Compher…a career third line player, was often deployed in the Colorado top six last season and managed 52 points.
“Pretty close to 100%”
Is now a matter of public record.
Thank you, have a nice day.
ok these ripostes are fun and that one that made me laugh.
I have no doubt you could pen a brilliant fantasy novel.
Quick fact check:
51 is not double of 31.
Nashville was one of the lowest last season 2.72 GF/game (28th), however, Colorado was only 11th at 3.34 GF/game.
Ironically, the gap in goal scoring between the Predators and Avalanche (2.72 to 3.34) was identical to the gap between the Avalanche and Oilers (3.34 to 3.96).
You may want to take games played into account.
No idea what the number of goals the Oilers scored has anything to do with this.
That’s absurd. He was even further from doubling his career high in points per game.
Oilers were included because of the symmetry of the numbers, and as an illustration how far the Avs are from ‘highest scoring’.
Oh, also. Sir, this is an Oilers blog.
An Oilers blog? It hasn’t stopped him before, I fear it will not cool his jets now…
He was on the top pp unit with one of the best defensemen in the league. and putting up 0.5 ppg.
Maybe the cause of them being one of the lowest scoring teams is having Johansen as a top 6 center??
For 4M in salary a pretty good deal for a big RS C that can skate and play top 6 if he’s into it mentally
I agree.
The issue is making this type of deal right now. So many forwards (Tofolli, Wheeler, Lindholm, and Dubois) are available (admittedly, few are RHCs).
Also, RyJo is going to be 30. The deal is not without risk.
Some risk but they got him for free and only 2 years left
Backlund is better but would have had quite the acquisition cost and higher cap
Minus person, this is what we talk about all the time. A top 6 RS C for 4M and no acquisition cost is a very tidy cap value move. Johansen is a good player if not top end. Wish our GM did that more, or ever
The Oilers should have done that. Yama and Foegele are neither as good and make the cap space plus. There’s your top 6 RW when Leon is at C. There’s your 2 C otherwise and a top 6 RS faceoff guy
There’s being not reactionary as Holland said, and there’s asleep at the wheel and having a narrow vision. You make things happen for deals like that
I’m not the downvoter, and I actually think Johansen has a good chance to rebound in Colorado.
He just had a very poor season though. Colorado will regret the deal if he doesn’t improve on his play from last year.
Johansen gets PP1 time and a chunk of his offense comes from that. At 5v5 Yamamoto and Foegele both outscored him by quite a margin (15 for RJ, 21 for KY, 27 for WF).
Johansen is not a ‘play driver’ (of on ice results) either. He gets more O-zone than D-zone face-offs, doesn’t play against tough opposition.
It’s a ‘tidy cap value move’ in theory only. If his play improves in Colorado it becomes a value move in reality, but that’s very far from a sure thing.
He may have a fork in him. But he’s a talented player and shooter
Not a defensive type but used properly a solid add. Also going to a contender will re energize him likely. It was weak draft classes those years so he’s meh
Sure, but that’s not at all the same as this being a missed opportunity or rival GMs being ‘asleep at the wheel’.
Johansen is a long, long way from a sure bet to be value for the Avalanche, even at $4M.
That 2010 draft is endemic for players who peaked early and fell hard.
Hall – former MVP is still productive but now well off his peak.
Seguin – that guy was having the best overall career until injuries
Gudbrandson – never became a real top-4.
Johanssen – a cap dump
Neiderreiter – meh
Skinner – has made one of the leagues worst contracts ultimately palatable. One of the top 5 players of the draft and that’s saying something.
Mikael Granlund, Jack Campbell, Kevin Hayes, Justin Faulk – their cap hits all represent significant negative value to their teams.
By comparison there are still productive players from 2006, 2005, 2004, and even 2003.
The 2010 draft will see most of its class retired (riiiiiich) before they’re 35.
I know there is a Hart Trophy season in there but who has had the “better post-trade career”, Hall or Larsson? How about when you include value for cap hit?
The Calgary Flames have drafted 29 players since 2017.
Those players have thus far combined for a total of 26 NHL games played.
24 of those were Jakob Pelletier…..
You are correct, RFAs coming off ELCs with no arb rights are the players that Holland generally gets done last, often on the even of training camp.
With that said, for me,I think Holland needs to alter his general process this off-season. Instead of procuring in free agency and then fitting his RFAs in, given the materiality of this year’s RFAs, mainly Bouch and McLeod, I would suggest that he should get those two players done first so he knows how much walking around money he might have.
Bouch is coming off his ELC but its not like Yamo, McLeod, before, this is going to be a real contract and he can’t just tell Bouch he’s got to take what’s left – that doesn’t work for this player.
I know he told Nugent-Bowman he doesn’t feel pressure or the need to get it done before July but I hope that is more heresy and the truth of the statement itself is not proven (i.e. I hope he does feel the need to get Bouch (and McLeod) done early.
I would presume that Kostin comes in below $2MM or else he won’t be playing for the Oilers next season, right?
McLeod, on the other hand, I think $2MM is the minimum we’ll see and, if he gets the three years that is being speculated, it could be closer to $3MM (and that really means Foegele has to go in addition to Yamo, I think).
Has more than $2M been reported and/or speculated by ‘insiders’?
I’ve seen the $2M x 3 years multiple times, but I don’t recall seeing a number higher than $2M being mentioned (you definitely do more listening than I though).
Stauff has speculated a range of $2MM to $3MM.
OK, cool.
Stauff is a putz.
He won’t get more than $1.5
I’m going to disagree on both of those opinions.
I wonder if Arizona is a team that could trade for Yamamoto.
No, not on the premise that they “need to hit the cap floor” or as a team that will take on bad cap.
From accounts, the Kassian and Nemeth buyouts are the first part of a pivot and the organization is looking to get competitive right away.
They have like all the draft picks over the next 3 years.
I’ve posted that, while I don’t think the Oilers would need to “pay” to move Yamo, I also don’t think he’d get near a 2nd round in return. With that said, the Yotes could use a player like Yamo if they are looking to be competitive and they have 4 third round picks this year and 3 third round picks next season (and 4 second round picks next season). Is there a chance the Oilers could snag one of those picks for Yamo? Maybe even get their 3rd round back (from the Bjugstad deal) although that would be a late 3rd rounder….?
Item #6 – Marchessault comments on their series with Edmonton. I think it corroborates today’s post that nibbling around the edges is the way for Edmonton to go this summer.
Spoiler – Oilers were the Knights toughest series.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/quick-shifts-calgary-flames-at-centre-of-trade-noise-in-nashville/
AND a diss of the Leafs in there from Marchessault.
If Edmonton had $91M worth of players, I reckon they’d have won that series.
It’s worth noting that Edmonton was Colorado’s toughest opponent the previous year, too.
Close only counts in Horseshoes and Hand Gernades.
That’s the dumbest saying ever.
You’re implying losing to the Knights and Avs doesn’t count, and that if they got swept in first round it’d be the same.
Who was the last team that this happened too? I thought so…..nobody remembers losers that’s just the way it is in sports and life.
Dallas Stars. Losing to St. Louis (OT game 7) 2nd round I think, and Tampa Bay in the finals.
You cheated by googling it which takes all the fun that we used to have at work, backyard bbq’s and during happy hours. Many a debate over sports knowledge was earned over double whiskeys and not given by our master machines.
I’ve mentioned that Dallas fact multiple times over the years on Lowetide. In fact, probably a couple of months ago when teams were underestimating Dallas’s likely playoff performance.
And along that line, the “champ” in losing the to eventual winner is the Buffalo Bills.
Yes, we do know that you resent everything that has changed and is no longer the exact same way it was in the 80s.
Hard times create strong men,
Strong men create good times.
Good times create weak men.
Weak men create hard times.
And nuclear bombs.
Dzurilla says hi.
I’ve posted a bit over the last couple of days that, while it seems there is a decent likelihood that Connor Brown signs with the Oilers, I’m not positive this will happen with a very low base and performance bonus type contract. I hope it does but the intel is that he’ll have lots of suitors and there are some (like Gregor) suggesting he’ll get offer real contracts, like $3MM per for term.
Listening to the Friedman spot with Stauffer from yesterday and Friedman did suggest there is a good chance that Brown ends up in Edmonton and Stauffer took the opportunity to talk about how Edmonton is currently a place players want to play and that Brown to the Oilers would be on a one-year low base performance bonus contract but Stauff also said that he knows FOR A FACT that Brown will have offers in the $2.5MM to $3.25MM for term.
I don’t know how Stauff could know that “for a fact” but Brown’s agent is Jeff Jackson so it could be that connection.
In any event, I think Brown will be an Oiler but I’m not sure we all (or at least I) will be happy with the contract terms. I think it could be a “real deal” with a real cap hit and, if it happens, he’s essentially replacing Foegele (with Yamo also gone with his cap hit going to the RFA raises).
WHat terms would you be happy with?
As far as a “real contract” including for term, well, its tough to say.
We know with certainty that any external acquisition over apx $1MM will require a second contract out (in addition to Yamo), right?
The Oilers couldn’t move Yamo and sign Brown to a deal with a $2MM base and maybe not even a $1.5MM base.
In addition, they won’t really know how much of a base they could afford until they get Bouch and McLeod signed and, if that doesn’t happen by early July, can they offer a real contract without having moved Foegele or Kulak (in addition to Yamo)?
I would not be comfortable with any material base over the $1.25MM range without having Buch and McLeod signed (unless they’ve moved another player, likely Foegele if they are brining in Brown).
Just listened to Louie’s spot with Stauff yesterday and Bob said: “I’m sure there are organizations out there that would give him $3MM X 3” and Louie cut him off and said: “I don’t think there are, I know there are”.
Is there a realistic chance that he signs in Edmonton of one-year at a low base around $1MM plus incentives if he does have near $10MM guaranteed?
I guess, I those incentives are true no-brainers, like $2MM for 10 games played, he will guarantee the same comp for the first season but he would be given up the term – maybe on the premise of betting on himself by guaranteeing the same comp for one year but earning a bigger pay day as he thinks he’ll perform?
What better place to zoom his numbers on a one year deal to get past the escrow brake on contact inflation (and REALLY cash in) than with his old friend McD or with Drai?
Sure, potentially.
I would presume he’s confidant in his abilities and his performance.
At the same time, he’s a soon to be 30, mid-roster player that is coming off major knee surgery. While I’m sure he’s confidant in himself, there is no guarantee he’s the same player he was prior to the injury right away (it often take a year for NHL players to re-find their full game after such an injury and surgery) or even ever, right? If $10MM guaranteed is being offered, that will likely require significant consideration.
I”m not saying that he won’t take a one-year with the Oilers with a low base – just really posting re: more and more intel that a multi year contract in the $3MM AAV will likely be on the table for him, that’s all,
https://twitter.com/FriedgeHNIC/status/1672636415014842368?cxt=HHwWgMC9taP9srYuAAAA
Predators are retaining 50 per cent of Johansen’s remaining two years
Quote Tweet
Nashville Predators
@PredsNHL
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19m
Incoming General Manager Barry Trotz announced today that the team has acquired forward Alex Galchenyuk from the Colorado Avalanche in exchange for forward Ryan Johansen.
Colorado gets its #2C for a song.
He’s a pretty lousy 2C
What is Trotz up to in Nashville? He’s got assets and cap space – is he going to add (ie Dubois), or is this part of a bigger re-build?
Nah.
https://twitter.com/IneffectiveMath/status/1672637231213813761?s=20
Micah is comparing Galchenyuk, who is no longer an NHL player and UFA, to Johanssen who costs the Avs $4M x 2.
Sakic is hoping that a player who scored 28 points last year will rebound at age 31. Okayyyyy.
Some chatter that Trotz plans to go after Elias Lindholm.
At the rate the Preds are going, Reid Schaefer might end up playing this year lol.
Galchenyuk is a UFA in a week. So basically Preds unloaded half of Johansen’s cap hit at no cost (but lost an actual NHL [player, just one who couldn’t meet his contract).
As Johansen is both a C and a RH shot, I imagine Holland was in on preliminary discussions but couldn’t find a way to make $4M work for that level of production.
Trotz is re-setting the culture would be my guess.
Nashville could of had Nuge years ago but Johansen had the size factor.
He’s also a RHC who had a recent 33-goal season going for him, if not the two-way acumen RNH brings regularly.
Turns out, not trading Nuge for RyJo or Seth Jones were some of the best moves the Oilers didn’t make over the years.
I don’t get it. The Oilers are as good as any team in the league. Aren’t we better off doing housekeeping moves this summer, Yamamoto out and maybe Connor Brown in, and waiting until the trade deadline to address roster holes?
I totally agree with this thought…we have all season to work the younger lads in and get them invaluable nhl playing time…as we all know once your at the dance anything can happen (florida a good example recently)…we really have most of the tools in the box…stronger defensive awareness all round and maybe our golfer tandem rocks it a bit …patience grasshopper…love the Tom Waits reference!
Yes. Yes.
Absolutely (in my opinion) but there are loud voices calling for major moves and/or thinking the Oilers should be in on every big name player that could be available (Karlsson, Hart, Koneckny, Sarros, Connor H., Wheeler, Mayfield, Pesce, Dumba).
I’m surprised I haven’t heard/read about making an $8MM play for Orlov.
Can they perhaps even make it nine value deals? Adding Toews (or similar) and Brown to the McLeod, Kostin and the others? Janmark, Bjugstad and others could potentially also be in that conversation.
I would also suggest that Bouchard will be on a big value contract next season.
Sure, there’s likely quite a few Oilers who outperform their cap hits (Skinner, Hyman, Draisaitl, etc in addition to Bouchard). LT was using $2M though, so I stopped there.
Rumor has it Juuse Saros might get traded. Two years left at $5M. Twenty seven years old.
Nashville has to give Askarov the crease, and aren’t in a position to compete this coming season.
It would be a pricy trade ….
We know Holland checks in on pretty much everything but I doubt he even checks in on this.
The Oilers aren’t looking to acquire a goalie for October, of that we can be pretty sure.
In recent history Edmonton has lost Larsson, Sekera, Marino and Klefbolm for no return. Then traded away now NHL players Perty, Jones and Bear.
Today we have Foegele to show for all that lost talent.
The defense cupboard is bare, let’s be clear what type of defensemen Broberg is going to be before we trade him, or play him behind journeymen like Kulak or Desharnais.
Larsson – the Oilers tried hard to re-sign him. They negotiated with him for months and, from accounts, offered similar terms to the Kraken. Larsson decided for personal reasons, stemming from his father dying in Edmonton, that he wanted a geographical change.
Sekera – This player was full value for his $5.5MM and right in his prime and he went from a low end 1st pairing/elite 2nd pairing d-man to replacement level overnight due to injury.
Marino – Zero chance of signing him after Chiarelli was fired.
Klefbom – Sigh
Of note: The Oilers have Shane LeChance to show for John Marino – good year in the USHL this past and now heading to college. Not likely to ever play in the NHL but we’ll see.
————
Also, I fully agree that Broberg should not be traded – unless it’s a really good deal that they need to make. He will provide higher value for his cap hit through the 3rd year of his ELC and most likely on both years of a standard 2-year bridge he’ll sign.
My picks for #56
F
1. Oscar Fisker Molgard
2. Juraj Pekarcik
3. Nick Lardis
4. Easton Cowan
5. Aydar Suniev
D
1. Andrew Gibson
2.Hunter Brzustewicz
3.Beau Ackey
Trade down players
Alexander Rykov
Martin Misiak