This is why drafting Kailer Yamamoto was a great idea. The Edmonton Oilers went from fading undersized forwards in the first round to taking the smallest one on the planet. He has the heart of a lion, and I do believe Yamamoto will have another 244 NHL games (maybe more) if he stays healthy. In the draft group 2010-2019, he won’t be remembered compared to the towering talents listed here. What I will remember is the fact he was the last chance Texaco offensively for Edmonton, and management stepped up and took him. Paradigm shift. Sea change. Call it what you will, it was a long, long, long time coming.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- Lowetide: 4 impact QMJHL centres for Oilers to target late in 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- DNB: Five burning Edmonton Oilers questions ahead of the NHL Draft and free agency
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
- Lowetide: The Oilers and Russian draft picks haven’t worked — yet
- DNB: How Emily Cave found that ‘joy and grief can coexist’ in writing her book about Colby
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers roster construction missing one final piece
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland on salary cap space, Steve Staios, 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
REASONS
A year ago I wrote “Edmonton has major dollars now, the team can make all kinds of moves in free agency. I think Jack Campbell is coming here, and Evander Kane might, but if he doesn’t we might see Nikita Zadorov signed instead of Brett Kulak. It sure sounds like Jesse Puljujarvi is heading somewhere, I’m beginning to think Jordan Martinook is the trade target.”
Do you remember last summer? Signing Campbell, signing Kane? That was last summer. Edmonton doesn’t have any money. I don’t know why people keep forgetting this important fact.
The reason Edmonton wasn’t in the Johansen trade? The club didn’t have the cap room to get involved. Sean Durzi is no longer a Los Angeles Kings defenseman, but LAK are a direct rival and he wasn’t heading to the Alberta capital.
Now Brett Pesce is a player of interest for the Oilers. Puck IQ has him playing over six minutes a night versus elites and delivering a 52.5 Dangerous Fenwick percentage. His most common partner last season was Brady Skjei. The duo posted a 52 percent goal share and a 57 percent expected goal share. All numbers five-on-five. I would say he is an elite target for Edmonton.
Carolina and the Oilers have done business often in recent years. The Ethan Bear-Warren Foegele and Jesse Puljujarvi-Patrik Puistola deals were fairly straight up hockey trades. What would Carolina be looking for in return?
DEVELOPMENT CAMP
One of the nerdy things I do every summer before the draft is check out the previous summer’s development camp roster. Why? Sometimes there is a player or two among the invited group worth tracking through the draft and into the summer. Perhaps these men are on Edmonton’s radar.
Hudson Thornton went 23-51-74 in 68 games for the Prince George Cougars. Those are brilliant numbers for a defenseman and I do wonder if the Oilers would take him.
I wonder too about Charlie Wright, who had a strong season as well. He blossomed this season.
A couple names to keep in mind next week and over the summer.
CONNOR BROWN, BRETT PESCE AND DAYS GONE DOWN
It was just about a year ago the Connor Brown to Edmonton rumours took flight. It never did happen, but there’s an old saying about scratching an itch and Brown appears to be headed for the promised land.
I was unsurprised to see people upset about trades being made that didn’t involve the Oilers and would suggest there will be more frustration. I am fascinated with whatever that blasted Eric Tulsky has going on in Carolina, the club officially has too many RH defensemen the moment Tony DeAngelo arrives from Philadelphia via trade. There is a report (Pierre Lebrun) the deal hit a snag, so may or may not be completed.
If it happens, what does that mean for Brett Pesce? He would be a player of interest for Edmonton.
I don’t believe Ryan Johansen would have been on Edmonton’s radar and Sean Durzi wouldn’t have been dealt here by LAK in one million years. If you’re wondering where Ken Holland should be shopping, here’s the list and here are my answers:
- RW Tyler Toffoli, Calgary. I have no idea how it would get done, but this would be an exceptional get.
- RD Brett Pesce, Carolina. He plays so much versus elites it’s incredible. A strong potential addition.
- LW Nils Hoglander, Vancouver. A quiet acquisition but a worthy one.
I do not expect a big trade unless Evan Bouchard’s contract becomes an issue. Hold on to your ass.
Johansen to COL and PLD to LA is outstanding. I hope LA gives up some quality assets and signs PLD for as long and as much as possible.
This past season at 5v5 Foegele, McLeod and Yamo score better than PLD. Even with his warts Hyman is in a different area code. All these comps have tougher zone starts, lower PDOs and generate a higher proportion of primary points both raw and rel compared to PLD. PLD scores at 3rd line rates 5v5 and he’s never had a season approach 50% in the dot at 5v5. In his career he gives up more pucks than he takes away.
A quick look at PLDs PuckIQ numbers the last few years and PLD maxes out as a 2nd Line centre. A less generous read is that he’s been trending to 3rd line C duties since 2019 which matches up with his scoring.
Grabbing a player suited for 3rd line and throwing him out against Top Comp every night is one helluva risk.
There is the potential that PLD is being suppressed in the Jets system? Maybe, the gap down from his early years with CLB is real so perhaps it’s Bowness and Maurice not maximizing the player. But the scoring numbers don’t suggest that. Maybe Bowness is playing the hand he’s dealt and is sheltering the crap out of him? Sheltering would be a 63% ozone start rate while seeing the highest proportion of your ice time against <2nd line comp. And that’s what PLD is playing.
LA is either set to unlock an offensive dynamo held down under the Jets system or they are about to play top dollar for a guy who should be out of the league in a few years. His raw and relative scoring levels make me think bust over bargain by a long shot.
There are red flags everywhere with making PLD a franchise centre.
The other great thing about PLD going to the Kings (fingers crossed that this happens) is that the Kings won’t get the guy they should be asking Winnipeg for … Hellybuyck. Nor will the have enough cap space to upgrade their goaltending from the mediocre group that they had last season.
The Kings currently have $9 million in cap space.
If, as rumoured, Iaffolo and his $4 million cap hit is going to Winnipeg, the Kings will have $13 million in cap space.
That’s 9 million in cap space with 11 forwards, 4 defenseman and 1 goalie signed.
Stop trying to gaslight us.
Let’s say Dubois signs for 8mil leaving them with 5mil in cap space. Then, let’s assume they re-sign their roster-likely RFAs (JAD, Kupari, & Bjornfot) to league minimum deals and they count on Clarke and Moverare filling out the remaining two D slots. That would leave them with ~1.1mil in cap space to sign a goalie while running a roster with 13F and 7D.
That would be a 22 man roster with two goaltenders.
Not at all hard to tweak if necessary.
And how much are they paying their second goalie HH?
Where is everyone getting these rumours?
Jets reporter Murat Ates … he’s very plugged to the Jets, so it’s a legit rumour.
We have an intriguing piece for CAR in a Pesce trade – Ceci.
RHD who can play tough minutes are hard to find and Ceci is a perfectly adequate 2RHD who is probably paid below value for two more years. Add a first round pick and that should be adequate. Basically it’s a TDL style deal in July.
I would then deal Yamo and Kulak for picks to replace some of the draft value dealt to CAR. Second and third rounders are fine as I expect we will be drafting 32nd next year anyway 🙂
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Pesce
Broberg Desharnais
UFA
Ceci + a first for Pesce … is he going to agree to contract extension before that? If not, then hard pass.
A prime 2RHD, on a value contract for two ore years plus a 1st rounder for one year of Pesce – seems like a high price with that description of Ceci, no?
Quit trading all of our 1st rounders the cupboards are bare especially on D
It’s really a big damned deal. Teams routinely run through nine or 10 in a season. Edmonton has the 7 we talk about all the time, then Dineen and Niemelainen. They have played in the NHL. Phil Kemp makes 10.
After that, it’s Wanner, Munzenberger and Yevseyev. That’s it!!!!
It’s not that I don’t like the player … in a vacuum. But he’s from NY state and has played in the Eastern conference his whole career. His partner is from New Hampshire, she has a career and family there and they have a little one.
If he got traded to the Oilers it would be a big ask for him to uproot his whole family and move to Western Canada where he does not have much in the way of personal ties. If he left his family behind in Raleigh to play out his contract in Edmonton, then he’d be miserable all season. It would be Eric Cole all over again.
I think he and the Canes will eventually sign a contract that works for both sides. A little lower on the AAV than he would like, in exchange for going long on term with an NMC.
Or he’ll get traded to Buffalo and Oilers fans will be going hysterical that Holland didn’t get him, completely ignoring all of the above context.
Good info – yeah then he’s probably going to stay east – then only other realistic option is Carlo. I think he’s an upgrade on Ceci (bigger, tougher) but little offense. How much of an upgrade when Ceci is healthy is an open question. Maybe the answer is to just play Ceci where he belongs 2RD with fewer tough minutes and give the keys to the top pair to Bouchard/Ekholm. Cutting back the elite minutes (and every other type) fed Nurse/Ceci probably improves their play and results substantially.
RE Chris Jones
To quote John Mcenroe and Chrissie Hynde “You’re the pits of the world!”
They cursed themselves by being weak.
More ragging on what’s set to be the dumbest singing in NHL history.
Zach Hyman is from the same camp as RyJo, PLD and Hubby. He’s a Bull in a confided space in the Ozone. Gord damn liability everywhere else. He doesn’t have a particular skill and what he’s good at (puck protection) often subtracts from his usefulness on the ice when he’s making passes to no one or hogging the puck. He’s a complimentary player of the highest order. He’s a luxury. At $5.5 he’s not cheap but not expensive and nobody questions his role on the team.
Making Zach Hyman your franchise cornerstone is a horrible bet.
PLD a mediocre offensive talent at best. At worst he’s a drag on better offensive players. He played with guys like Schieffele, Connor, Ehlers (ppg) and Morrisey and scored less than all of them last year. All of them are older. PLD was in his first UFA year and he was FIFTH on his team in scoring. On no planet do you make this joke your franchise. LA is already the most offensively challenged team in the Pacific and this will make them MUCH WORSE!
PLD is a crappier version of Horcoff in every way. Nobody should defend this move. This is an indefensible misread that almost surely makes LA rose next season and beyond.
Astonishing incompetence.
This is all of a good thing though if you’re an Oiler fan.
This is a bit over the top – PLD is not a bad player, no more so than Hyman is. Scoring goals is the hardest thing to do in hockey, and both players are very good (not elite) at posting offence. These guys are one dimensional, but that one dimension is what gets you paid in the NHL (or in any professional sports league for that matter).
The issues with this particular move are numerous:
The acquisition cost in assets is going to be high to outbid Montreal and get PLD with an extension from Winnipeg.
The contract is going to be a lot more than 5.5 million.
The player rather famously quit on his first team, and is forcing his way off another team, rather than waiting another year to get to his UFA summer … he’s not exactly Zach Hyman off the ice, which matters if you’re going to invest the kind of money that the Kings are going to.
He’s more of complimentary top 6 forward, rather than a linchpin … he’s basically Ryan Johansen before he signed a contract that Nashville would eventually come to regret, and couldn’t give away for free. Same size, same pedigree, same game, same numbers.
LA will be better next season, as long as Kopitar and Doughty’s game don’t hit a cliff; but when that cliff comes, PLD is not going to replacing their play driving ability or leadership. What happens then … will he try to sulk his way to Montreal next?
Puljujarvi was a tough one, because there were issues with his hips and maybe that could have been known (and for all we know that was the concern for Kekelainen).
Nail Yakupov lost much of his final junior season to injury, too. I’ve always wondered how much each man lost due to various maladies.
Sometimes those damn Christmas tournaments are lying liars.
With JP I think Kek may have had an idea about him as a person as well. Wonderful guy, but the jump to NA was a big one for him. I think Yak is a similar situation. Didn’t really fit in with hockey jock culture or NA culture
Its hard to be a on the outside on the world’s biggest hockey stage and keep one’s head together
1) Well, there was a very easy path with Puljujarvi – they could have allowed him to stay in Finland for another season, or two.
2) Yakupov spent two full seasons playing in Canada before he was drafted by the Oilers.
I disagree this will be a net negative immediately. The comparison with Hyman is meant to showcase roles. Hyman is brought to the Oilers for a role. He’s not good defensively, he doesn’t PK and he doesn’t really generate all his own goals. He’s a great complimentary player that adds a certain offensive flair yes. But he’s not a franchise player. He’s not even close. At $5.5 million he’s pricey allowable.
The murmurs or PLD and the role that LA would cast him in sets him up for failure. There is no stat of his that shows a player outperforming. In no way does it show that.
I mean come on in his UFA year he couldn’t be arsed to lead his team in points? He couldn’t be arsed to be top three? He couldn’t put up better numbers in the showcase roll with a showcase set of teammates is damning! Whoever is set to grab him is about to cast him in the hardest role and he barely holds on as a top six scorer with All-Star teammates…
Mitch Marner is complimentary player. Mitch Marner overperforms his role.
Players like PLD, like Benn, Wheeler, Hubby and Tavares are boat anchors on the rest of the league.
Their pay is so disproportional to the one dimensional value they bring. The pull down stars from being paid properly and they cap out players lower down the roster who bring value. They are a deadweight loss to hockey in every game they play.
Signings like this need to be panned for the idiocy they are. They wreck the league.
Wreck the league might be taking it a bit too far … but wreck a team’s salary structure … that’s very accurate.
Has this trade happened?
Good point Reja – it’t not official yet, and PLD and Kings may not actually come to an agreement on an extension.
I can’t find anywhere that this trade is official. I remember one time we were going to be called the Houston Oilers and not to be confused with Bum Phillips and Earl Campbell Oilers team.
No.
Do you remember when Harold Ballard wanted to trade Franchises with Peter Puck for 50 million back in I believe 81-82. The Oiler and Leaf players would swap Jersey’s and Cities. This was closer to happening than many people think.
I’m not quite sure what you’re going on about because I haven’t heard any details yet, but if the Durzi trade is any indication…
The Durzi trade is redolent of those “door crasher” sales Future Shop used to have for Boxing Day.
I still can’t believe I’m the only one who thinks a 2nd rounder is a terrible return for a 24 y/o right shot d, who played 19:47 min/game on a playoff team putting up half a point per game (1.09 points/60)
That Durzi trade is almost right up there with the likes of Petry (who’s a more complete player), or Schultz, except Durzi has a cheap cap hit and term under team control.
In the prior Kings series, Durzi’s most comment forward opponents were Kane, Hyman, McDavid.
The Kings giving away Durzi for free is a huge win for us.
Is this the Bizarro Episode on Seinfeld.
It would be if the Kings didn’t have Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence to replace him.
But they do, so it isn’t.
The Kings were always going to have to deal with their abundance of RHD and they still have four.
Signing Gavrikov was a necessary balancing of the D corp and moving Durzi for cap space is nothing more than an effort to redply that cap space to forward.
This is truly a nonsensical take and if the Kings played outside of the Pacific, you would be calling them out for mismanaging their assets.
In what world is it a good idea to take your abundance of valuable assets (RHD) and give one away for next to nothing for the reason of “eh, I have too many anyway”. If the Kings were smart they would have maximized their return. This is a professional sports league, not a trip to Costco where you give your neighbour half of the cookies you bought because you can’t eat that many.
I doubt anyone would have offered a first round pick.
A second is perfectly acceptable.
You have a great ability to hype up players on teams you like and as soon as they’re traded away, they instantly become lesser versions of themselves and the team gets exactly the right return for them.
I guess good, young RHDs aren’t that valuable anymore?
Brandt Clarke and Jordan Spence are as proven 2RD in the NHL as Philip Broberg is at 2LD.
I wrote about the ‘idea’ of a trade like this one recently, using (as I always have) the Houston Astros of 1971 as the example. Durzi has elevated value, but the Kings are lush at the position.
I think his goal share with Mat Roy is very curious considering the expected goal share, huge gap in expected and actual.
It’s possible Todd McLellan Ethan Bear’d him.
Ryan, you’re not the only one who thought this was a bad trade for LA. Poor asset management.
To paraphrase Monty Python:
Every asset is sacred,
Every asset is great,
If an asset gets wasted,
(The hockey) god(s) get quite irate.
Curious what you think an acceptable return for Durzi would be?
Nothing short of a first round pick for a top 4 RHD on a dirt cheap team friendly deal.
Clarke and Spence have done jack all in the NHL. Durzi kept the Kings afloat two seasons ago when they lost Doughty and was regularly getting matched against McDavid for the past two seasons, and holding his own as much as anyone can against McDavid.
They got fleeced.
Usually, I start with the math and go from there. With Durzi, I’ve started with the “seen him good.”
Lol.
Durzi had a 52.7 DFF% against elites with GF 58.1% last season. 4rth in toi against elites (excluding Gavrikov).
Would you have traded the Oilers 2024 1st round pick for Durzi?
Yes actually, but you know just as well as anyone that the Kings were never going to trade him to the Oilers.
Just look at his posts from last season where all he does is gush over Durzi. The troll is shameless and will turn on a dime forgetting everything he said or supposedly believed. He’s LT’s pet troll – which is his prerogative as the owner of this bar – but it would be nicer if he owned one that smelled better and didn’t yap so much.
Everyone should be overjoyed at LA absolutely destroying itself.
This is a franchise ruining deal if it comes true and absolutely removes LA as a threat in the division.
What unreal luck. First it was Treliving setting a bonfire in Calgary that all the MaTH Boyz drooled over and now it’s Blake burning his franchise in effigy!
It’s the Opposite of the DoD when we were doing everyone else favors this is amazing hahahahahahahahaha
Ken Wiebe
@WiebesWorld
Expecting F Jansen Harkins to be involved in the deal between Jets and Kings if they can get it to the finish line. Harkins posted big numbers with Manitoba Moose and is on a 1 year, one-way deal w/$850,000 AAV, valuable for a team like LA that is close to cap ceiling.
Ken Wiebe
@WiebesWorld
Expecting F Jansen Harkins to be involved in the deal between #NHLJets and #LAKings if they can get it to the finish line. Harkins posted big numbers with #MBMoose of #AHL and is on a 1 year, one-way deal w/$850,000 AAV, valuable for a team like LA that is close to cap ceiling.
This blog was founded with a statistical/ math bent as the idea. For deeper discussion about hockey, and our guys, as the point
There are some folks that don’t do that here, by their design, and remain per the owner’s perogative. So be it
The rest, please read the comments and react with thoughts, not emotionally
That we don’t agree on things keeps the discussion going, and we all learn from it. If the comment is reasonable and presented as such, respond in kind. Also for those that like to pull stats, they are far, far from definitive, especially without context, as they’ve always been to this point, so there’s that
This blog has always had people who were anti-math and people who were pro math and both sides are emotional. I’m not surprised people get frustrated because there are new people all the time and they are finding their way.
That said, someone who arrives today, and doesn’t know the lay of the land, may be able to help all of us find more knowledge down the line.
The blog has been going for 20 years folks, and people were as petty and insolent as they are today.
The only thing that has changed is that, due to the hard work of the math people many moons ago, we have more knowledge. Where we disagree is on what matters now. I believe in Puck IQ, some of you believe in other things.
Some day, here or elsewhere, there will be a breakthrough. Until then, buckle up and prepare to be angry like the rest of the world.
The crazy things about the analytics debate is that it never needed to be a thing.
You look at any corporation that is on the bleeding edge of analytics and it’s always about mining quantitative AND qualitative data to build a proper model. If someone’s reaching definitive conclusions with math only, that’s just as weak as someone doing it by eye only. Statistics can be made to lie. Numbers are useless without context within a given model.
Math is a tool to validate the visual and vice versa. Math vs saw him good has always been a dumb debate imo cos you shouldn’t have one without the other. That’s the very foundation of the scientific method. Observation is just as critical as the data that’s spit out.
Everyone understands that at the beginning, but once you voice an opinion and someone disagrees the instant reaction is to defend. I’ve seen it on here for years, always amazes me how SURE people are about their methods.
The draft this week involves mountains of work, people spent hundreds of hours on it. And you know what? Some kid who gets taken in the fourth round will grow three inches and put on 15 pounds of muscle like this guy.
https://www.nhl.com/kings/news/from-levack-to-la-dave-taylors-incredible-career-with-the-kings/c-316743320
Luck. Hard work, late nights, bad coffee and luck.
Agreed. The challenge with procurement is you often don’t know what you don’t know.
Take Puljujarvi. There’s a tendency to write that pick off as too much ‘saw him good’ especially the small sample size WJC. Like Yakupov, i actually think they dropped the ball on the qualitative side with Jesse. Math liked them both. The consensus groupthink liked them both so they were viewed as ‘safe’ picks.
It’s clear however the org failed to vet both players adequately on their ability to think the game and the language barrier was a prohibitive issue with both as well.
The last time I interviewed for a new job, there was 5 rounds of interviews including psychological and skill assessments as well as extensive reference vetting. Is there a good reason why the Oil couldn’t be this thorough, especially when the picks like Yak and JP were such high picks where the draft rankings are more predictable. It’s hugely damning still that Kekkalainen knew enough to avoid a Puljujarvi pick but Chiarelli did not.
Great summation of your blog. By the time I was used to reading your Volman charts, they were gone. I’d imagine there will be a new set of metrics or two by the time you’re finished. Hockey should be fun, can’t imagine why anyone would want to come here to be angry.
Well that’s the thing. Nobody needs to take it personally or make it personal. Overall. As you ask us all to do
I find I get a lot of ‘stuff’ for not towing the party, and I try to write things in a way to not try to get anyone’s hackles up. I was around for the early days when it was more heated
Such are the days we live in, where honest debate is not valued as it once was, and people could disagree and still get along
I’m still catching up to the thread, but this is from around the right time.
I don’t think that suggesting Holland is ‘signaling due diligence’ but ‘doing not much’ is remotely reasonable.
You’re saying that Holland is pretending to be try to improve the team, but not really trying. I find that offensive, and with the number of significant moves he’s made over the last 24 months it also appears to be completely baseless.
I have no idea how suggesting that (whether about Holland or anyone else in his position) could be furthering deeper discussion about hockey.
A few things can be simultaneously true:
-Dubois has been a pretty consistent 60-point player.
-Entering his prime years his ceiling is somewhere in the 70-90 point range.
-Getting a player like this signed through his prime is good business.
-Having this player as your #1C means you’re going nowhere as a franchise.
Quintin Byfield is 20 years old.
He’s about to turn 21 and he scored 3 goals in the NHL last season.
He might “break out” and score 15.
Him and Dubois as your 1-2 down the middle is not going to win you a series against Draisaitl / McDavid.
It’s a little early to be writing off a young man whose development was severely affected by Covid, injury and illness.
Maybe just maybe they are trying to acquire Dubois because they finally realized what many have been saying including on a national broadcast
Hes not a center in the NHL
but I bet you would have the same responses if he was an Oilers player
Yes and no. Yes they aren’t going anywhere but there is no reason to think he’s anything close to a 70-90 point player.
He had damned good teammates in Winnipeg. Guys who’s play on their national teams were his linemates and PP partners.
He couldn’t crack 30 goals.
It’s idiotic to make this player your franchise cornerstone.
He scored at a 35 goal pace last season.
He didn’t crack 30 goals and he’s coming to a worse set of offensive teammates in LA.
He’ll statistically hit peak
offensive production in 18 months and it’s downhill from there for a guy who’s never drive play.
Look at this objectively and you’ll see a contract that already has $40 million in negative value.
#Hubby2.0
Just look at his numbers there’s no need to try and play 3D chess.
You’re making a 40 point 5v5 player your cornerstone… you’re paying top dollar for a guy who scored 16 non-pp goals last year.
Guys Kailer Yamamoto has TWO LESS 5v5 goals than PLD in the last two seasons and LA is going to make him their franchise!
This is so dumb in the face of it that you have to dig insanely deep just to try and make it work. Oh my god what an idiotic play by Blake it defies imagination, logic and all things rationale hahahahahahahaha
I love paces for players that have been in the league for multiple seasons
A 35 G per 95 GP pace! 😂
Having this player at anywhere near $9MM per likely adds to the last point.
It’s horrible.
Its worse than the James Neal contract.
This is Rob Blake not understanding what wins you hockey games hahahahahahahahahaha
Hahahaha man there’s no one left to cheer for the Sharks!
Move em to Utah or Texas and call it a day.
https://twitter.com/conorsen/status/1673037703456096265?s=46&t=eJhhNPA4I32vVTDvo2_ETA
@WPGMurat
I’m hearing Los Angeles and Pierre-Luc Dubois are talking contract extension. Between that and the pieces of the trade, plenty to work out, but I’m getting the sense things are well on their way.
In the last 36hrs LA and Col have been hellbent on making their teams worse.
Holland doesn’t have to do a damn thing and it’s Vegas/Oilers for the West.
Astonishing ineptness.
Kings will have to move out some contracts to make Dubois fit under the cap. Really hoping they move out Iafallo and Arvidsson, as speculated, as those guys were a PITA to play against in the playoffs.
PLD is absolutely cut from the same cloth as RyJo.
Got to think Byfield is going the other way too, if PLD is coming to LA with an extension. Thank the Gords they didn’t draft Stutzle.
Yeah, who would want a 25 year old 6’3” 220 centre just entering his prime?
Madness.
RyJo was a 25 year old 6’3″ 220 lb RH centre just entering his prime with very comparable numbers to PLD at the time that he signed his 8 years x 8 million dollar extension.
I bet Nashville would’ve liked a do-over.
One doesn’t affect the other in any way.
PLD was not happy in Columbus (welcome to the club) or Winnipeg (welcome to a worse club).
LA is a very desirable destination for players and has a very strong leadership group with Doughty and Kopitar leading the way.
There a very good chance PLD thrives in LA.
HH – they’re pretty good compatibles, except that RyJo wasn’t a locker room cancer.
There’s just as good of a chance that PLD continues to pine for Montreal, and sulks his way off the Kings before his extension is even half way done. Wouldn’t be the first time (see – Columbus and Winnipeg).
He whined about the discipline and effort required of forwards of Tortorella’s defensive system. McLellan’s is more locked down than that.
Will PLD even play C in LA? Danault would be a great 3C, but would they really drop him down the lineup. I expect PLD in more of a Nuge role next year, and does anyone call Nuge a C anymore?
I know Kopitar’s deal expires at end of year, but does anyone expect him to leave the kings? I don’t see him making as much, but don’t see him leaving either. Statue Brown shows that LA doesn’t like their captains leaving.
I don’t get the love for him and his stone hands L.A should of taken the German Sniper instead.
PLD is going to be required to drive in LA and he’ll crash and burn spectacularly. He’s not a creative player, he doesn’t excel at any one skill offensively at and he sucks at the rest of hockey. He’s just like Hubby, RyJo or Anderson. His one dimensional play is an illusion and his cost will subtract nearly three roster spots from a Kings team on the way up.
This is a Tavares level self-inflicted wound. It’s almost as bad as Hubby. Dumb play for a player they didn’t need and who won’t live up to the billing at all.
Blake is playing a bias here. Don’t confuse player archetype for an intelligent hockey deal. Blake is chasing and casting off depth left, right and centre, this is a really dumb move. It’s very likely he just messed himself out of winning a Cup.
Just like when everyone was praising Treliving they have no idea the stupidity they just saw in real time.
Was it just me or did anyone else see the Johansen deal as a plus for Edm? McDavid vs. MacKinnon & Johansen vs. Draisaitl for the next 2 years seems pretty okee dokee to me in a 7 game series.
RyJo is cut from the same useless cloth as Josh Anderson.
They will score the occasional goal. But they don’t do anything else. Literally nothing, they don’t contribute to the play positively or negatively because they aren’t part of it. Utterly useless.
LA is set to make the same mistake with PLD. Useless
Found it laughable that one of the people evaluating the trade on The Athletic said Johansen can drive the play. Josi and Forsberg drove the play for Nashville. Joey has some edge still but can’t carry a 2nd line, so if Colorado is going to split McKinnon and Rantanen to try and see if their new acquisition will get back over 50 points on the 2nd line, knock yourself out trying.
Rantanen has already been playing second line consistently.
Is Nichushkin going to be able to play?
Actually, his most common linemates at evens last season were McKinnon and Lekhonen followed by McKinnon and Rodrigues so your comment is not accurate according to dobbersports.
With Lekhonen on the line, they were outscored 13-14, with Rodrigues, they did the outscoring 20-12. It’s also interesting that when McKinnon and Rantanen played w/Compher, they did a really good job of outscoring the competition (9-2).
In summary, he did his most scoring at evens with McKinnon.
Carry on.
Yup it’s hilarious. There is no evidence whatsoever that this is true. You can’t even look at the official score sheets and jumble it into a fact. Once you crack into the fancies and supplement it with the eye test you’ll see an invisible player. He does nothing… he score randomly in an 82 game season but otherwise contributes nothing to his team. For better or for worse.
This is people fundamentally misunderstanding players and how to build a winning roster.
Good news and bad news trends:
1) Bad News – Sounds like the Jets are working on an extension for PLD (per Murat Ates). That would be too bad as I was really hoping that the Kings would overpay on acquisition cost and give the massive anchor contract for one of the most over-rated players in the NHL.
2) Looks like the Knights are finalizing an extension with Hill in the $5MM range (per Friedman) – Don’t get me wrong, he was very good during the playoffs and I give him full marks for his impact to their cup win, however, 2-months ago this was a late 20s journey man goalie. Many a pedestrian goalie have had a 2 month hot streak in the NHL never to repeat that.
Maybe this is a sign-and-trade to the Kings (further driving up the acquisition cost)?
PLD reminds me of another former BJs player, who’s third contract immediately became a boat anchor … Ryan Johansen.
Also wouldn’t be hilarious if Vegas signs Hill to 5 million dollar extension and then Lehner shows up out of nowhere at the start of training camp and declares himself fit to play.
They must have an agreement with Lehner to LTIR the rest of his contract.
Like Jim Carey the Net Detective for one! Great name,not such a good goalie. On par with Andre “Red Light” Racicot… now there’s a damning nickname…
Don’t forget The Hamburglar.
I hear you, but Sean Burke is some kind of goalie voodoo shaman
Lehner marches to the beat of his own off-beat drummer. If he thinks he’s healthy enough to play next season, he’s going to, if only to regain his ‘platform’ … he’s a total wild card.
Ya, maybe – he is developing a history, isn’t he.
With that said, if that is the case, then perhaps Burke should be getting the raise and they should save that cap space for elsewhere as any career back up would have the “Burke effect”?
As it turns out this is looking like a sign and trade with Vilardi and Iaffalo as pieces going the other way.
I LOVE this as an Oilers fans.
@PierreVLeBrun
My understanding at the moment is that Torrey Krug won’t waive his NTC for a trade to Philadelphia. I suppose he could always change his mind, but that’s where it is as of now.
@CapFriendly
Jordan Staal #LetsGoCane
$2.9M x 4 year extension
Breakdown:
23-24: $3.45M (NMC)
24-25: $3.41M (NMC)
25-26: $2.65M (NMC)
26-27: $775k + $1.315M SB (NTC)
*NMC becomes NTC on August 15, 2026
That’s a lot of term to give a 35 year old.
Yeah…but he’s still performing well.
The deal is somewhat front loaded so pretty easy to escape the final year.
’Smart’ teams appear to be shifting the definition of smart this summer.
Brind’Amour would know who is taking care of himself and who isn’t.
Sean Durzi would NOT have been an upgrade on Cody Ceci. Who you play against as a d-man matters a lot and check out Puck IQ.
Brett Pesce would be an upgrade in Cody Ceci, and worth the bump in cap hit. At the same time, it would hella expensive for a one year rental. Let’s know, Pesce will be looking for monster money in his next contract and, from accounts, enjoys being an “eastern seaboard guy”.
I’m not sure who this was meant for, but I never claimed he was.
Carolina wanting to move on from Pesce is a bit of a head scratcher for me.
Is Tulsky and that management group really all that, when they are willfully trading for Tony DeAngelo, who is so bad in his own end last year that Torts scratched him and only played 5D that night?
At some point you have to go all in and try to win, knowing that the fallout could be bad if you don’t (Pesce leaves after one season and the asset cost is significant), much like what happened to the Bruins this season. On the other hand, I’d argue that situation was unique, in that they knew Bergeron and Krejci were likely done after this season, whereas McDavid and Draisaitl have many more seasons left ahead of them.
Is Pesce the right fit for an all-in move? And if he does sign an extension for 6 million, how does that affect the Oilers ability to sign Bouchard.
This reminds me too much of the Eric Cole fiasco – good Eastern conference player, who came here but couldn’t get comfortable and under-performed, then got sent back to Carolina. That trade tree, which went all the way back to Messier, ended in Jim Vandermeer and Ales Kotalik.
I wonder what Calgary would want for Tanev?
I think the Hurricanes view Pesce as a player who still has value and can help them win, but is likely wanting too much for too long on his next deal. That’s my take on why they would deal him. Edmonton acquiring him would be about one season, and would cost Broberg, and I’m not certain that’s wise. He’s a value deal, Pesce is another more expensive contract.
Play to the deadline, see how they shine.
Totally agree – keep your powder dry.
The Oilers are not going to win the Stanley Cup in June/July. They are good enough as constituted to be comfortably projected as a playoff team. Accumulate some cap space for the deadline, identify the next Ekholm (aka – the perfect fit both on and off the ice, that can push the Oilers to a higher level), and pay the price needed to get him at the deadline.
I want this summer to be about clearing out inefficient contracts (aka – Yamamoto and Foegele), signing a vet or two to bargain deals (aka – Brown and Toews), and giving some opportunity in-season to some of the young players pushing up from the Bake (aka – Broberg, Lavoie, Holloway). Hope for enough of a bounce back season from Campbell and some solid progression from Skinner, that they can move on from Campbell’s deal the following year. Win a few low key trades like Samorukov for Kostin.
The teams that win the off-season, typically don’t win the Stanley Cup.
That said, I would still inquire about Tanev – injuries have always been a concern with him, but when he does play, he’s still an elite RHD defensively.
Great post – the only change I’d make is next summer everyone saying “Dang it, who knew Campbell would be the starter to bring Stanley home!” 😜
One thing Carolina seems to do is value cap space more than other franchises (and fans) – eg. letting Hamilton walk for nothing. They just handle it better than other teams (see Calgary & Kadri). It would fascinating to get a look under the hood and see how they determine “value”.
Naturally, Ceci + say Bourgault for Pesce isn’t on the table or it’d likely be done and more than that starts getting into too much. I agree with you LT, play to the deadline and jump through cap hoops along to way to maximize the space you have at the deadline for an addition. The season starts at game 83.
I agree with everything LT writes here including his view on why the Canes might trade. I think they want to keep him very much but it’s all about the contract extension. I mean, they are currently trying to re-sign him, they want to keep him, however, as we’ve seen they dig in on big money/big term extensions for players going in to their 30s.
I don’t think a re-sign with the Oilers is a reasonable path forward. He’s going to want $6MM plus, I would think, and the accounts are that he’s very much an “eastern seaboard” guy.
It wasn’t meant for any one person in particular – just a comment on two notes in the blog:
1) “Durzi was never coming to Alberta” an opining on the Durzi topic that he wouldn’t have been an upgrade (on Ceci) in any event; and
2) Pesce as an acquisition target and providing on an opinion on that written topic.
Luke Gazdick’s podcast drops in full today – will be interesting to hear the entire Connor Brown portion.
Listening to this now and a few things that were notable (to me):
1) Brown mentioned he and wife are having a kid. My mind goes to, I wonder if he would prefer a deal with some term to provide some stability not risk having to re-locate in a year.
2) He’s six months out from the surgery. Says knee feels great and it started to about a month ago.
3) One of the thing he’s re-evaluated is nutrition and he’s really reigned it in with his supplements, working with a nutritionist, etc.
There were only two players in reasonable range that were drafted after Yamo that, with hindsight, would have been better picks.
Jake O. and Jason Robertson and both were ranked below Yamo on all lists, including the McKenzie aggregate ranking form official organization lists.
Yamo was a good pick and, in a re-draft, would actually go higher than 22nd.
Yamo is currently too expensive for his recent performance and has to go for cap reasons but he has been a good Oiler and, if he was at $2MM, he’d be a solid midde six winger and PK2 guy.
Sail on this week Kailer!!!
Yah, I think he looked great when he was moved down the lineup to play with Klim. Like you’re saying, there’s a valuable NHL player there, that value is less than $3M.
Kahun scored 1 less Goal than Yamamoto in 10 fewer games played. Kahun made under a million for his services and is no longer in the N.H.L. No sober G.M is trading for 3.1 million dollar skill player that can’t skill.
You do realize that there is more than just the prior season, right?
Kailer is a talented player and gives everything he has. Still in a re-draft, given his uneven career and that it seems obvious now that his his body isn’t going to take NHL play, it makes more sense to me that he would go more where Gaudreau did. A later round bet on the talent. Johnny H also can’t seem to take the rigours of playoff hockey, and he’s 10lbs heavier
LT and I think you like the math behind choosing Yama. My point of view is choosing players that have major obstacles to being an every day NHL player is likely going to lead to a lot of guys not becoming solid contributors. So if you don’t like the players around later in the first round trade down hopefully for two 2nds. Schaeffer worked out as he is at least big, not timid and a shooter of sorts, so he went in a trade. After last season and the W Juniors I wasn’t liking his chances of being a top 6 winger. Somethings not there it seems
As you mentioned Dallas, they draft certain types. Usually size and goal scoring. They have gotten great value doing this, Benn was a 5th rounder. If I was GM I would have passed on Yama, traded down perhaps if the scouts didn’t have another guy they wanted
Yama has covered his draft bet, but that he has to go, basically because of his size and he can’t stay healthy enough, and got gifted a 20 goal season, and is now overpaid, hurts. That he doesn’t have much value also hurts, it would be better to not have cap space for him because he’s too good, and get something that helps, it’s yet another loss of system equity for a first round pick. And it isn’t unexpected that the health thing played out, which is why I would have passed, too much risk and too big an obstacle
Even with Hall and Seguin, I thought they should have taken Seguin, or neither, and traded down (never happens I know) first because Seguin is a RC, and second because Hall’s reckless style has lead to a diminished career, which was also a predicted risk back then around these parts. At least from me. That Seguin has had injuries as well doesn’t invalidate the point, Hall was much more likely to get into trouble with his style and getting hammered so often. On the ice I mean 🙂
The league shifted 7-8 years ago where vertically challenged forwards can not only make it in the NHL but become Stars. Most teams seem to now have a shifty shady little fellow up front. The oilers passed up on Debrincat and seeing what he did in his rookie year led to the selection of Yamamoto the following year in my opinion. I would say 83% chance Yamamoto gets bought out at the age of 24 ( how many players have had that happen) I don’t consider Yamamoto a successful pick and I’ll personally drive him to the greyhound station and also purchase him a 1 way ticket to Philly.
Valeri Nichushkin, bought out at 24 years of age.
Yamamoto will be bought out and signed at league minimum are close to it. I have a suspicious feeling Sakic is regretting the Valeri contract already.
The 9th highest scoring forward to this point from the 2017 draft, would fall to the 4th round in a re-draft – that’s a take.
I think the market trend to small is now ok is over, is all
Too many have been exposed and are being sold or losing jobs
It’s fine for very elite players, but a matter of time for the others. As soon as a typical guy comes along competing for the spot
Our own GM is doing this, on the record
There aren’t even 104 players (Gaudreau’s draft slot) from that draft who’ve played an NHL game.
Flyers linked to several deals where they retain salary in each of them.
Dan Briere wants as many first round picks as he can get.
Hextall and Hakstol had rebuilt the team, except for the goaltending, which doomed them.
Chuck Fletcher than came in and butchered everything.
Not to mention an incredible run of bad luck with career-threatening/ending injuries to their top players.
It was weird how from the outside Hextall seemed to be at least OK in Philly, and then drove the truck into the ditch in Pitt.
Hextall got scape-coated a bit … from what’s come out in the media, he came into the job believing that he had a mandate to move on from Letang and Malkin and rebuild, then got railroaded by Sullivan, who went behind his back to ownership, which had transitioned during that time from Lemieux (who had hired him originally) to the Fenway group in November 2021.
He then had to make a hard pivot back to win-now mode, and the trades which came after were the hallmarks of a GM on borrowed time with a new ownership group. There was some good (the Rakell trade) and some bad (the Granlund trade), but the real killer was the 12 million in cap space that they could’ve weaponized last season to get the picks and prospects that would’ve allowed Hextall to execute an LA Kings style turnaround.
That said, he never should’ve taken that job – he was always the enemy in the eyes of Pens fans.
There is a difference between building a team and trying to extend a window (unnaturally).
Switching Ceci for Pesce would make the Oilers significantly better at 5v5, even if Jay doesn’t do the smart thing and come in with a more playable system, as Ekholm did. I wouldn’t go down that road unless there was a cap plan made and an extension, Holland wouldn’t either
Adding that much ability to the D should mean they could also move Kulak and play the more talented and higher ceiling Bro. Who can replace Ek in a few seasons. Take out Yama and perhaps Foegele and there is also cap space
There are options to make the team better to me, nothing unrealistic. Nobody that would be leaving is a difference maker or key to team strength, even if they provide decent depth. I’m not sure we have something Carolina wants, and of course Ken has said he’s looking at everything (signalling due diligence?) and probably not doing much
What is your deal anyway?
In the last 2 years Holland has added Keith, Foegele, Kulak, Ekholm, Kostin via trade, and Hyman, Kane, Ceci, Campbell, Ryan, among others, as free agents.
But you would assume he’s “probably not doing much”?
Also, I meant this summer, per his comments, as opposed to his body of work
Is this not what we’ve been hearing? I don’t think it’s an unreasonable take
I have said many times Holland is the best we have had in a long time, but that doesn’t mean he’s above some criticism, as his more successful and current peers run rings around him. The teams we can’t beat
I’m loyal to the team and want it to win. Not to GMs or most players. I like them, but it’s pro sports. I was raised on the Oilers being the bar setter. I would like to get back there, having another all time player skating for the Oil Drop again. Times a wastin’, the constraints are self imposed for most GMs, not for a few of the best ones
No, I do not think we’ve been hearing that Holland is ‘signaling due diligence’ while ‘not doing much’.
I truly don’t understand how anyone could say that seriously.
Pesce is intriguing though (and I agree ‘strong potential addition’).
This article from Bultman and Dayal a few days ago spitballs the cost as Noah Ostlund and a 2nd from Buffalo. (https://theathletic.com/4623284/2023/06/22/nhl-offseason-trades-signings/)
Bourgault and a 2nd would be right in that same ball park.
I would certainly have to
consider that seriously if Pesce is open to a reasonable extension. But who knows if he is, or if that’s a true reflection of the trade cost.
Oilers have a talent to give up more than most teams for a trade. Ostlund > Bourgault
I’m not sure what this means.
Is that true?
Ostlund was picked 16th in 2022, Bourgault 22nd in 2021.
Ostlund is undersized and played in the Swedish 2nd division (Allsvenskan) this past season. His NHLe was 21.
Bourgault had an NHLe of 22 in the AHL this past season, and his NHLe from the QMJHL last season was 41.
Seems at minimum they’re in the same ballpark. Do you anything other than your opinion that argues otherwise?
I would add Jeremy Hanzel to that list.
He played for the Oilers in last fall’s Young Stars tourney, then went on to lead the WHL in plus-minus (albeit on that absurdly talented Seattle squadron).
So would changing Yamo for Brown and Ceci for Pesce be enough to push us over the top?
No idea on cost or anything. Do you move Ceci out if you get Pesce (whatever team misses on Hanifin maybe. Florida or Buffalo).
And does Yamo plus high pick or another prospect (even if it’s Broberg) enough?
In terms of value, Broberg and the second should buy you one season of Pesce (he is UFA at the end of the year) but you’re basically going all-in on one season.
Don’t forget ‘Campbell for Saros’.
And as long as we’re dreaming, I’d like a pony.
Need to remove another material player to make that work cap wise (and it presumes Brown at that really low base, like $1MM tops).
There isn’t cap space for the increase in cap from Ceci to Pesce (even though its not much for this season, but it’s still too much to fit in).
Foegele or Kulak also need to go to make it work
Not quite as much as Nurse and Ceci though!
After the Ekholm acquisition, Ceci played about 4.5 minutes per game versus elites.
Is that relevant? That was largely due to the teams the Oilers faced down the stretch, and Ceci still led the team in elite TOI per game after Ekholm was added (4:45 for Ceci, 4:26 for Ekholm).
I just think that if we’re lauding Pesce for the difficult minutes he played we should recognize that Ceci’s have been every bit as difficult.
Total minutes vs elites the last 2 seasons:
Nurse 1112.4 (153 GP) 7:16/game (6:27 in 22-23)
Ceci 1020.1 (158 GP) 6:27/game (6:10 in 22-23)
Pesce 976.1 (152 GP) 6:25/game (6:08 in 22-23)
I still think Pesce would be a strong addition and upgrade.
Further to your point about QoC down the stretch (the 21 games that Ekholm played), the Oilers D played an average of 10.8 minutes per game 5 on 5 against players estimated to be elite by Puckiq. Over the first 61 games, Oilers D played an average of 12.9 minutes per game against players estimated to be elite by Puckiq. So Puckiq’s QoC of forwards account for almost 17% of the reduction of Ceci’s time against elites pre and post Ekholm, while the pairing of Ekholm and Bouchard accounts for an additional 11% of his decline in minutes by taking a higher percent of the time (big surprise that Woody trusted Ekholm/Bouchard more than any other pairing behind Nurse/Ceci that he had prior to Ekholm’s arrival).
It is also worth pointing out, over the season, Carolina’s defense played 2,167 minutes against Puckiq elite forwards, vs the Oiler’s defense playing 2,034, so Pesci had 8% more opportunity to play against Puckiq elite forwards than did Ceci.
I believe it is, yes. Now, it’s ALSO relevant to Pesce, who will play less against elites (and one assumes will be more effective in a less stressful role) and Darnell Nurse.
For the record, I would keep the powder dry and run Ceci and Broberg on the RH side with Bouchard. Desharnais the seventh man.
I don’t believe the Oilers agree. We’ll see.
OK, and true enough that Nurse and his partner (whoever that is) will have a bit easier load with Ekholm an Oiler.
I think your scenario is the most likely one we see, and I’d be pretty happy with it as well.
I would also support a true upgrade at 1RD (and I think Pesce would be that).
My take is that’s where the Oilers are at too. We’ve heard they have interest in Pesce, but they haven’t really been linked to any other free agent or trade target RD (I assume because they aren’t clear upgrades).
But yes, we’ll see.