Time flies when you’re having fun. This is the Bakersfield Condors depth chart from mid-January to early February 2021. How do I know this? Troy Grosenick was an Oilers farmhand for exactly 21 days. Looking back on this list, which is just over two years old, the parent club has Evan Bouchard and Stuart Skinner in feature roles. Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway and Ryan McLeod are pushing for more time in important spots (McLeod is already there, in my opinion) and some hopefuls. How many categories does the current AHL team have filled? Does it matter?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Predicting Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 2023-24 stats
- New DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland on salary cap space, Steve Staios, 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers fan survey results: Belief remains in team’s Stanley Cup window
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
DOES IT MATTER?
I believe the Edmonton Oilers secured the foundation pieces required to support Connor McDavid in pursuit of a Stanley Cup. It didn’t happen, but it was close. Some addled moments in the second periods of Game 5 and Game 6, and the emergence of a red hot goalie in Adin Hill derailed a wonderful run to Stanley.
I believe the Oilers are close.
The No. 1 line of Connor McDavid with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman; the second line that features Leon Draisaitl between Evander Kane and Kailer Yamamoto; third-line center Ryan McLeod; plus top pairings Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci and Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard, along with Stuart Skinner. Here are the five-on-five numbers from the just completed 2022-23 season.
- Nuge-97-Hyman: 209 minutes, 16-10 goals, 62 percent expected goals
- Kane-29-Yamamoto: 166 minutes, 12-7 goals, 45 percent expected goals
- Ryan McLeod: 645 mins, 27-26 goals, 55 percent expected goals
- Darnell Nurse-Cody Ceci: 1081 mins, 46-48 goals, 50 percent expected goals
- Mattias Ekholm-Evan Bouchard: 290 mins, 27-8 goals, 61 percent expected goals
- Stuart Skinner: .926 five-on-five save percentage
Injuries impacted Kane, Yamamoto and Ceci, and the Oilers were unable to plug all of the holes at the deadline. Management will have to move on from one or more of these names. That said, the club has enjoyed two strong playoff runs, and another will hit central Alberta next spring.
Edmonton is in a good spot.
Now back to the question: Does it matter if the Oilers produce talent that can play in foundation roles? The answer is yes, of course. Edmonton needs a RW and a RD for the second line and pairing, respectively. They need that each man to be inexpensive and have an impact.
The team needs Philip Broberg to push up the depth chart this season, possibly on the RH side. In a 29-game window leading up to the acquisition of Ekholm, Broberg averaged 12:34 a night five-on-five (partner Evan Bouchard played 14:30 a game) with a 56 percent goal share and a 58 percent expected goal share. Edmonton needs him to play a more prominent role this coming season. Maybe second pair RH side. If he can get that 12:34 to something north of 15, and perform better when playing versus elites, Edmonton will have solved two foundation problems (Bouchard, Broberg) in short order.
This is a fine player card, although you’ll hear all manner of verbal about Broberg’s inability to move up the depth chart. Last season, he was 21, and the depth chart at his position included two, then three NHL veterans. He played well. Many mention Oscar Klefbom’s age 21 season as an example of what a real NHL defenseman should be accomplishing at age 21.
Klebom played big minutes five-on-five and he was strong relative to his teammates versus elites. His DFF Pct (44) is clear of Broberg (41.3) and he played miles more. He was forced to, because the veterans were either poor (Andrew Ference) or played half the season (Nikita Nikitin). One thing I believe people get wrong is the idea defensemen somehow show what they are early and never move off that level. Some defensemen do emerge quickly, but back in 2014-15 when Klefbom was posting those numbers Martin Marincin had the look of a top-four NHL defender. Here are his numbers.
Marincin played 40.8 percent of his minutes versus elites that season, posted a 46.3 percent Fenwick and was in the black rel. He was one dimensional compared to Klefbom, but in this season (2014-15) the two men were about level. It’s hard to know everything about a player based on one season. Bill James used to say you need three full seasons and I think that’s correct. The following season, 2015-16, Edmonton saw an exceptional young defenseman take the ice.
This is one of my favourite all-time rookie seasons. Brandon Davidson walked into the NHL and won all the shares versus elites while playing elites 34 percent of his overall five-on-five time. So good. His career was devastated by injury (thanks, Matt Tkachuk!) but this is an exceptional rookie season.
This is the Darnell Nurse rookie card, he was not ready for the minutes received and it’s across the board. Two years later, he was delivering a pristine season.
This is the goal, right here. Across all levels of competition, strong performance. Nurse’s recent player cards feature a spike in time-on-ice versus elites.
I’m writing all of this to say that statements that are certain in nature about young defensemen should be taken lightly. We don’t know what we don’t know. Your confidence in the comments section betrays youth and inexperience in regard to evaluating progress by defensemen. Young players don’t develop in a straight line, and for defensemen you can double it and double it again.
RYAN SIGNS, POSSIBLE ROSTER
Derek Ryan’s deal is $900,000 times two. I like the deal even if year two doesn’t happen, and to be honest I think he might be a guy who goes from the ice to coaching right away, maybe with the Oilers organization. Ryan’s signing along with a fantastic interview by Daniel Nugent-Bowman at The Athletic gives us a chance to re-work the possible opening night roster.
Buyouts
Campbell +3.5, +3.9, +2.7, -1 5×4
Yamfry +2.7, -0.5
Trade foegle retain -0.75 if required (+2.0)
13.2 million Cap with 15 players on roster
Sign McLeod 2.0 x3, kostin 1.6 x2
9.4 mil cap 17/23 roster
Rnh McDavid Hyman
Kane drai xxx
Kostin McLeod xxx
Holloway Ryan xxx
Sign bouch to low 1 yr (with rough handshake on next contract for term after january)
Or deal if one can find better all around defenseman for next 2-3 years at least and package is decent. (Someone like Brad hunt could probably run PP1 over 25% efficiency go 11/7 if required with cheap Ozone dman)
I don’t think carrying Campbell’s hit in tightest years is smart gamble.
In 2023 why do you need a massive front house staff? Billy Beane and Peter Brand were a two horse team and that was in 2001/2 when you were building the data crunching in house.
Today in 2023? Buy that stuff off the shelf. Tell a data firm what you’re looking for and buy it. How your coaches integrate that data. How your scouting team processes data.. that’s your in house sauce right there and too an extent. Are we sure its not working?
Ryan, Bgustadt, Kostin, Janmark, Barrie, Hyman, Kane, Ceci, Kulak, Russell, Smith, Keith, (despite the hissing) – there’s a lot of undervalued guys here. Guys that came to the Oilers from much lesser roles and are succeeding higher up the batting order. There’s also a lot of guys you wouldn’t have snapped up starring at the Record Book alone. Some haven’t provided above average value – Foegele and Soup, but the record of outright fails – Kassian, Athanasiou, remain pretty small.
Let’s zero in on Ceci and Kulak right now. When that Ceci signing happened it was a very small set of posters who were looking at his Pittsburgh days vs his Toronto days. Very few people wanted to entertain the thought that Ceci had rounded into a good dman vs the wanderer that TO pounded him into. Ditto with Kulak, who couldn’t hold a lineup spot in Montreal and even last offseason posters were (remain?) ready to cast him off despite his performance. Kulak is one of the best value deals on the team. Russell suppressed goals despite the fancies and had the right stuff as a player archetype.
Did the Oilers nab all of them for absolute steals? No not necessarily, but I don’t think anyone got fleeced either. I think the Oilers have repeatedly found value in players where analytics would have you searching. I don’t think this team is as Stone Age as some want it to be.
That said there is an element of show me that fans deserve to have at this point so I get the ribbing and jibing. Just not sure it matches up with the actual moves made.
I am hopeful looking at the Oilers UFA/RFA landscape for the next 4 seasons. No major headaches not too many big items coming due in the same year, so should make things easier.
The story for this offseason I see as follows:
Kenny has said he will qualify all our RFAs. That is McLeod(ARB), Kostin (ARB), Lavoie Rodrique and Bouchard. I think he will try to sell them all on 1 year friendly deals to get to the other side of the Escrow debt issue.Lavoie and Rodrique don’t have arb rights and are likely to be under 1 M each so can be buried on the farm with no penalty if they don’t make the bigs. I am hoping to get Bouchard, McLeod and Kostin at a combined under 5.9M for the one year deals. Could be tight but doable. Easier sell than two, three or more years at same dollars and gets past the escrow issue without coming due in the same year as McD or Drai, so better maneuverability for them in negotiating next offseason when things return to normal.
For UFA’s, it’s Bjugstad, Shore, Benson, Bailey, Janmark, Koekkoek, Demers. Demers, Koekkoek are done and gone (as are Smith, Murray and Klefbom). Benson is likely to leave for a second opinion elsewhere.So I am hoping for Bjugstad at 1.2M and Janmark at similar. If these are not a go, there is still Shore at < 1M and a replacement from later in FA period to be had at a similar price, We need two players here. SOme other combination of these pieces is also an option but the cost should be kept to 2.5M or less.
Then we move out Yamo for picks and we are under the cap by about 600K or so on a 22 man roster for one last year. It means replacing Yamo internally with one of the kids or a cheap FA, at least until the deadline.
For next offseason we have RFA’s Hamblin,Holloway, Savoie,Neimelainen (ARB), Dineen (ARB), Broberg Desharnais and Fanti. No RFA’s currently slated for the bigs with arb rights so not too bad. For UFAs we have Malone, McKegg, Foegele, Griffith and Pickard. No one there who will put undue pressure on the cap. SO in alignment with the expected more normal cap increase next offseason we have more room to reward our RFA’s where deserved, from THIS offseason for getting us past the escrow hump with 1 year deals. From this point on I have us back at a 23 man roster going forward.
Then we have the 2025 offseason.RFAs Petrov, Tullio, Bourgeault,Berglund, and Kemp (ARB).No huge ticket items there and that leaves us to deal with the UFAs Ceci, Ryan and Draisatl. Ryan will likely retire, Ceci at 32 will not cost a bundle or can be replaced without disrupting the salary structure, which only leaves Draisatl as a big negotiation.
For 2026 it is also nice. RFAs Chaisson, Grubbe, Wanner, and UFAs Kane, Kulak, Skinner and McDavid. Kane will be 34 and will not have upward price pressure at that point and may be due for replacement in any event. Kulak will be 32 and as a defensive D should not break the bank at that point. Skinner , if he has kept his hold on the starters job will be much more, but if he has, we have likely moved on from Campbell before now for a more appropriately priced 1b or backup.WHich leaves just McDavid to worry about.
Good planning, this.
Thanks for the well thought out post.
I think $5.9MM is going to be tough for the three RFAs – Kostin may be a bit higher than we hope/think if we can get him back. In addition to a decent arb case, DNB wrote about the KHL risk. Gregor has been speculating apx $2MM for McLeod – I think there is at least a couple hundred grand on top here as an unofficial agreement to make him whole from the discount he took last off-season.
I don’t think Bjugstad at $1.2MM is a realistic option – speculation has he’s testing the market and he did score 17 goals.
As the same time, I think Janmark could come in under that – I think they probably try and get him to sign for Ryan money. DR did speak on Stauff’s show about other guys needing to leave some money on the table like he did.
You, Dusty, Jamo and Gregor were 1260. There was nothing else. I look forward to the podcast. The Jesperson model showed that the personalities matter more than the station. You have a “following”. Listeners will…….follow.
So sorry to you, LT, and everyone else affected by the TSN1260 closure.
God, I just wish Bell would do this in a less chickenshit way. Just grosses me out to even think about.
It’s a shame to hear about 1260 and your show LT. Please consider entering the podcast world. I’d be an instant subscriber and daily listener. Best of luck!
Al – I haven’t been posting a lot lately. Just wanted to pop on and post my sympathies to you and the staff at 1260 (on air and off). That’s a shitty thing to experience and a shitty way it was done.
How about Colin White?
Lots of chatter about the Oilers not having an Ontario scout and a small front office.
https://twitter.com/OilersNation/status/1669088623751462913
Might explain some of the recent drafts.
LT has been on this for a while.
He’s also mentioned that Steady Steve was helping in that regard since the last draft.
Personally, I feel like not earnestly scouting the world’s best juniour league is an unforced error.
Yes, he has been on this. I agree not seriously scouting the OHL is a significant misstep, certainly not a trifling issue.
To me the question is why?
No in house analytics. No OHl scout. An enormous amount of room on the 50 man.
One certainly wonders how much of what the Oilers do is process driven.
Trading down from Walllstedt to get an extra 3rd round draft pick so that you can grab a guy who could one day make it on your bottom pairing (who wasn’t even ranked by central scouting as far as I can tell)…
While Vegas traded a 5th for a Chandler Stephenson (who had already played 184 NHL games) we traded a 5th for a guy who just played his draft plus two in the WHL in Red Deer (at a hair over 1ppg) who if everything breaks right could be our 4rth line centre one day…
When our window as Holland just promulgated is 1 to 2 years to win the cup.
I guess you can see why Holland mostly sticks to dealing in vets. A lot of the decisions on draft and emerging talent harken back to the old Oiler days of overvaluing player archetypes especially those right in your backyard with scouts pounding their fists on the table.
It’s saddening and maddening. I think winners actively plug holes with the best vetting and it very often works for them
The owner apparently had wanted cuts bcs Covid but the cash is rolling again. I like the Vegans approach in that they have a full roster that they can afford and so have traded prospects and have a full slate of the valuable high picks still the next 3 years
So when the cap calls in a while or guys age out they have people emerging then. To me that is a master class in NHL strategy. That in the cup interviews on ice they mentioned all the trades makes me envious because they can, and made a cup winner and perennial contender, and aren’t bled out
That they are also in a good cap position makes me envious. That the players rave about the culture and cohesiveness even after the trades, especially Fleury, makes me think our guys are a bit wrong headed about loyalty. It seems icing the best team possible and winning is a pretty good squirt of glue. It also avoids the frustration that builds when guys that aren’t helping enough stay and there isn’t enough forward progress
I think of Ekholm. It’s been said he wasn’t available until the deadline, great patience to wait and score the Viking, yet he said when he came he was in rumours for a few years and was glad it was over. Seems contradictory to me. Good players are always available if you know what you want, who you like, and can move when the opportunities arise because you can move chess pieces efficiently
The amazing thing about Vegas is that they have ZERO dead cap despite being absolutely ruthless about moving out players and replacing them with better ones.
I am very curious to see how they handle Robin Lehner in the offseason in the remote chance he comes off LTIR.
They could easily buy him out with significant cap savings but I would wager they would come up with a clean disposition.
How quickly you’ve forgotten about
the vaunt… the Mahe brothers.I’m willing to cut Kenny and Co some slack on Wallstedt. Not long before that Askarov was the second coming of Carey Price, and was even drafted by NSH (a veritable goaltender factory) to boot. I was high on Otter and Knight, but if I’m being honest their draft year hype had more to do with my enthusiasm than prescience. We needed a goalie. And preferred Cossa to Wallstedt. So far, there’s not much between either since their draft year. I was also high on Samsonov in 2015. If one is drafting a tender in the first round, one had better be right. As it is, moving up to draft Skinner is looking like a solid move. Time will tell with Sylvian’s son.
Yes, dealing for Stephenson was a strong play. It worked out. I’d be willing to bet that many, if not most, deals for basically unknown players with late round picks don’t turn out any better than using the draft pick. Your point is well taken, however. This team needs another Gernat and a 4th for Maroon, or MPS and a 2nd for Perron type of trade win.
Check the roster of the Stanley Cup champions.
It is awash in former WHL players..the actual best junior hockey league in Canada.
I would also point to the upcoming draft.
Depending on which mock you use, the OHL is severely lacking in high end talent,
Using Craig Buttons mock draft, there are only 3 OHL players in the first round at 10, 13 and 31.
There are 7 from the WHL, 8 from Sweden and 8 from the USNDP/NCAA path.
To some degree this is cyclical but the OHL has been dipping in quality prospects for some time.
Where the chatter started.
https://twitter.com/OilersNation/status/1669088623751462913?s=20
They (Oilers) seem to not emulate the best practices of other teams. That is a huge area they are missing out on. I could see if they followed Buffalo’s one time practice of reviewing video, but from the way Seravalli phrased it, they have a small front office compared to other teams, and probably not enough staff to even review video.
Ontario is a big enough place with enough hockey leagues and associations, that you are missing a big piece of the picture. Toronto alone in itself could be a territory.
— I’ve been down voted for years for my criticism of the organization its people structure and lack of forward thinking. It’s one of my hobby horses but gets tired getting slammed. Watch them probably win next year! Then again pretty hard not to trip over a cup with one of the all time greats. I can’t think of an all timer in last 50 years that didn’t win a Cup.
— That recent interview with Holland is circa 1985 in terms of understanding of hockey IMO.
— It’s verboten to speak ill of the Oilers organization. Glad cat is out of bag….
In no particular order, and surely there are more:
*still active
— with a list that long they aren’t all-timers. Al-timers by definition isn’t 25 long. None of these guys are top-50 all time
— Perhaps I should redefine. McD is one of the greatest ever. The only Art Ross winner I can think of that didn’t eventually win a Cup is Sedin brothers.
Joe Thornton.
Since the Oilers entered the league:
Marcel Dionne
Jarome Iginla
Joe Thornton
Daniel Sedin
Henrik Sedin
Jamie Benn
Given the question was posed so early this morning, I figured I’d respond in a fresh post.
If Holland qualifies him (and I think he said he will), the Oilers will retain his rights.
Would like to see CHED pick up a few free agents and produce a morning sports show.
Pull a Tucker Carlson and take all the listeners on to bigger and better things.
Edmontonian Tucker Carlson listeners already listen to CHED.
Is this not the Athletic’s opportunity to start producing podcasts and eventually paywall them? I know they’ve been struggling too but it seems like they could jump on this. Their goal was always hyper localized content. They’ve got a roster of free agents to go to right now.
I’m a recent subscriber to the Athletic and even though I don’t read everything, it’s was inexpensive and the content I do read is always top notch.
Second attempt:
Haven’t lived in Edmonton since 04 but it is my home and the Oilers are my link to my past and where I grew up. That link has passed through TSN 1260 almost exclusively for the past several years. Listening online. So much better than what Sportsnet offers and such a local take on things it is really like removing that remaining connection to home. I will live, this is so much harder for so many more than me, a listener. But “heck” if the Canadian media landscape isn’t “crud”. And it just got worse.
A few years ago I had a dream where I was at a table with John Short and Alan Mitchell. Odd, as even to this day I don’t really know what Lowetide looks like – but we were there, the three of us… but I said nothing I just listened to Short snd LT discuss Oilers. Who knows about what? Jason Bonsignore, maybe. One of those afternoon nap dreams that are very very clear upon waking. There’s no greater take-away than that. But just that: the Oilers voice of my youth and adulthood just shooting the shit in my subconscious, likely hardwired after thousands of hours of listening.
I’ll keep listening.
“Eichel: Second Banana no more” writes Brownlee.
Pardon me for not reading the article but did it detail how he put a dead-end franchise on his shoulders and skated lighting through the shit to propel said team to contender status almost single-handedly?
Or was it that he jumped ship from his dead-end and parachuted into leading the playoffs in assists on a cap circumventing team that got every favour imaginable and now he’s as good as McDavid somehow?
Boo VGK.
Oh my prior non-political and heartfelt post about TSN 1260 is awaiting approval some reason. Just don’t want to give the impression I jumped straight into Vegas hating without reading the room.
You did read the article? or did not?
I did not. I used the article’s title to spin myself into a rage.
Btw I’m seeing a lot of folks online expressing shock and outrage over the sudden and unexpected nature of these layoffs.
Unfortunately this is the norm for how MSM handles terminations. They can’t give advance notice because the talent will go on-air and vent.
A lifetime ago i worked in radio and anytime someone was shitcanned it was brutal. They were basically ambushed walking in and they were escorted out of the building within the hour with a shocked/dazed/furious look on their face.
The upside of the gig is you get good tables at restaurants. The downside is the way they whack their made men at the end.
At least the morons in Toronto didn’t play Green Days’ Good Riddance on a loop all day as they did in Vancouver.
That’s really unfortunate news RE TSN 1260.
BUT fortunately, we live in a time where there are a plethora of alternatives to radio stations for talented hosts such as Mr. Mitchell.
Bell has really destroyed TSN, besides international hockey and CFL, what does TSN exist for?
I only ever listened to TSN1260 on an actual radio when i was driving around in my car.
Sounded way better to Stream it on the PC or my phone at my house or at work.
I agree with OmJo. There must be a way to turn it into a Web thing and just let folks stream it so you are not messing with Licenses or the CRTC.
One thing about setting up a stream is they could own 100% of it and control their own destiny.
I will pass this on to LT when he appears but thought some folks would be interested in how things panned out in Vancouver after TSN 1040 got whacked a couple of years ago.
Matt Sekeres and Blake Price were the afternoon drive hosts on 1040 while Don Taylor and Rick Dhaliwal were the midday hosts.
Sekeres and Price launched a podcast and most of the advertisers followed them and their product is even better since they are no longer constrained by broadcasting etiquette.
Taylor and Dhaliwal landed a 2 hour spot on employee owned CHEK TV which a few years earlier had been threatened with closure by Global. The show is available for streaming.
The former morning show duo including Thomas Drance we’re snapped up fairly quickly to do mornings at rival Sportsnet 650.
The podcasts are produced and promoted by a Vancouver online company called GO GOAT Sports which also handles the Ray and Dregs podcast among others.
All these post radio ventures seem to be thriving.
In your professional opinion why is this the end of Sports talk on public radio?
As always…dollars.
It is far cheaper to produce radio where the programming is essentially dictated by a consultant sitting in Toronto or New York.
But pretty much every Canadian market has a dominant News Talk station like CHED in Edmonton, QR77 in Calgary or CKNW in Vancouver.
However, it amazes me that TSN would shut down a sports station in what is likely the most rabid sports market in Canada…Edmonton.
I guess it could have been different if TSN 1260 had radio rights to the Oilers and Elks but Bell/TSN seems bent on destroying itself.
Just today, TSN Go lost a long time subscriber when I cancelled their streaming service and I would wager thousands of others have done the same,
Bell seems intent on getting out of the broadcasting business as they also made significant cuts to CTV News which will lead to decreased viewership and a continued death spiral.
The end of TSN 1040 was poorly done as you mentioned with the looping of Good Riddance. What has spawned since has been great. The 3 hour morning show of Halford and Brough is fantastic. I only listen in Podcast form and if LT had his own podcast I’d be all over it.
I have to say that Halford and Brough, Donnie and Dhali and Sekeres and Price, Marek and Friedman and Ray and Dregs all available as podcasts is a real treat.
A Lowetide podcast would certainly also be a very welcome addition.
NASCAR
I recently read an article by David Staples on how Vegas broke down the Oilers system. I believe one of the Knights mentioned this somewhere as well. It basically broke down to the Oilers playing man to man, and the Knights playing a zone, with a heavy emphasis on the slot area. Yeah, I know, protecting the slot is hockey 101, but for whatever reason, the Oilers seem to choose a system that can be effective on paper, but very prone to outnumber situations and poor slot coverage.
What Vegas was doing, was what I call, Box Plus One, which essentially looks like the old traditional box for PK, plus an additional player. It requires the team to keep the puck to the outside, by shifting and exchanging positions in reaction to puck position. It requires patience, and strict positioning. The advantage of it, is that you can cover larger portions of the ice, especially against teams with some strong individual players. You are basically trying to create outnumber situations on the puck and force your opponents into risky plays/passes. The advantage is that it is easy to maintain, easy to teach, and easy to play. It also let’s you transition easier.
The Oilers man to man system, does have advantages as well. It allows closer positioning and the ability to play a more physical game, allow a coach to matchup specific players, and make adjustments on the fly. The disadvantages is that it is a physically taxing system and hard to maintain over a long time period, which leads to fatigue and untimely penalties. Players can overcommit and then the whole system collapses (Think Whitecloud’s goal) in a glorious heap. There is also the idea about mismatches, which Vegas exploited masterfully.
As the whole theme here is that the Oilers are close in terms of the cup, I believe they are as well. I do believe the talent is there and the team is there. They just need to play a system that works to team strength, which is transition and offense. They are not going to achieve that playing a man to man system. Yes, play man to man against teams you should beat (Arizona, Habs, etc), but go to a zone against teams that have the individual talent (Eichel, Makar, et al) to exploit a man to man.
Just some thoughts from the old coach.
And I’ve shared this with you all before, but I will be back behind the bench again next season, coaching my rookie daughter as she embarks on her hockey journey. I’m not sure which the two of us is more excited.
Have a good day, keep smiling and keep your stick on the ice!
Lovely stuff coach.
You still up north these days?
Thank you, and yes, still up North. I came home 28 years ago to stay for two years and head back down South when I paid off student loans. I paid those off 26 years ago and moved 100 miles South. Not sure if I’ll ever leave.
And elbows up in the corners!
Thanks for this. I think it would suit the oilers POA Ty, and possibly let Connor freelance a bit as the plus one. And be available for jailbreaks without such a chance if disaster
POA Ty = plenty
And that’s my line of thinking as well. If you’ve got Secretariat, you have to let em run once in a while.
I appreciate the breakdown – though I’m still strongly in the camp that says Vegas didn’t stop the Oilers. The Oilers underperformed massively. They stopped doing what was making them successful rather than having been stopped.
Suddenly trying to be a dump-and-chase team? No.
Trying to slow down the game instead of playing at high speed in all zones? No.
Going for the kill early and ending games before the opposition can get settled? Apparently worked way too well so have to try something new…
Watching a team play that many games below it’s expected standard of performance in 2 rounds of playoff hockey was really really disappointing.
These guys need to get over the idea that these games are special or different. It’s another hockey game. Play it. You’ll be fine if you just keep doing what you were doing. Adjust if the other team comes up with some magic – which Vegas didn’t.
Definitely some truth in what you’re saying. It seemed like that from Game 1 Vs. LA., there was a different team we had seen from the trade dealine on. Playoff hockey is different, but it doesn’t need a complete change from what got you to the playoffs.
I agree with you, but had started saying before the playoffs, when things were rosy and everything was offense, that the Oilers attack against what Vegas (and many teams do) was inadequate and relied on things they weren’t trying to control – like making the right types of plays and attacks to break a clogged slot and create enough true HDSC. Not all chances from a ‘scoring area’ are equal
It’s well documented now what to do, and I see teams doing it, including Vegas. Low high plays, and cross seam plays. Almost all goalies play the bottom of the net, so shoot high. And of course screens, tips and deflections. But you can’t just send a guy or two to stand stationary, especially in too close to the goalie or coverage .It actually creates a more clogged area. Movement is important. Like the 80’s Oilers did, the first in the NHL to be that dynamic, and so hard to defend because structure was so hard to maintain against them, according to Denis Potvin
The game the Panthers won, and almost lost, they did nothing that good all game, and finally with a few minutes to go made these plays. Cross ice to Verhaege, who took a purposeful shot for a pad deflection (he was too far out to score really so a good decision), which popped right out to Tkachuk who had inside position. Whitecloud blew that one. The OT goal, Verhaege gains the line and has Tkachuk driving the net which is a huge dostractions for the goalie. Tkachuk doesn’t close the shot lane off by skating into it, Verhaege shoots top shelf and Hill is out of sorts with Tkachuk driving and doesn’t really react and it’s over. Purposeful plays finally and they scored. But you have to do that most of the time, not once in a while
The Oiler’s puck support isn’t great anywhere, the O zone included. Too much rimming it around hoping somebody magically got open. But very little purposeful or consistent attack. They have talent and sometimes they will score. Many times not at evens against that type of defense
Sometimes there was a highlight reel play. More often not, but a lot of forcing high risk passes often from very unwise areas to make one happen. The talent hides this significant weakness to me, and the Oilers have re-proven you can’t outscore mistakes and goals don’t come predictably just doing old school point shots and banging away, even with the best two forwards currently available in the league
I wonder about a rough break down in frequency between defensive systems in the NHL?
I can recall teams exploiting the Oilers man to man system for years with other teams getting Nurse to chase players to the blue line leaving smaller forwards to defend the net. I always thought it was an odd system.
I think most teams use the zone due to it’s simplicity and efficiency over a long season.
Maybe puck possession giants like the late ’90s early 2000’s Stevie Y Wings did a zone due to their ability to use possession as a defensive arsenal. The Russian Five comes to mind, especially the ones trained under Tikhonov or Tarasov. Those Soviet teams tended to use a zone in the neutral zone and went man to man in the D zone.
So the Oilers are running a system that pre-dates Woodcroft ?
So if I understand this is a 5v5 version of the wedge plus 1 pk formation. May I add that the Oil did run that pk and with not very good results.
Just as Gregor finally beat Stauffer in the latest ratings, his show is canned. That will be a boost for CHED. I’m sure a lot of the TSN guys will land on their feet in the podcast world. Tyler Yaremchuk’s podcast is my new favorite for Oilers related content.
I do enjoy ON Everyday – I think Liam has a future in the market as well.
DFO is getting pretty big with TY and JG.
LT would be a slick addition.
Geez, bad news again for Bell side of the media thing here in this country. Really enjoyed over the years having LT’s show on live-stream around the house in winter or out back in yard having a beverage or doing yard chores in warmer months on my days off. Will be following along to future developments for LT for sure.
Just to clarify – in Atlantic time zone – was not having a drink at 10am — was 1pm start here.. 🙂
Marchessault, Stone, and Eichel raising McDavid’s and Draisaitl’s cup.
Enormous missed opportunity.
So sorry LT to hear the news. I don’t live there anymore but went back many times to St Albert over the last two years and loved listening to your show as I didn’t have to work when in town
Sad news about 1260 Lowetide and friends. I often listened to you and Gregor/Strudwick from Cranbrook.
You are a special talent. Be sure to take time if you need it. Any new venture with you would be welcome. Wishing you the best.
Same here. I listened to LT and Gregor a lot here in YYJ. Sad day.
— Monetizing content is a slog in this era. I’m sorry for this loss of local radio
— I too believe we are right there. I’ve gone through this a bunch of times. Vegas was the only remaining semi final team that fit the general profile of Cup Champion. Unless Florida won this year and went deep a few more times they didn’t fit.
— Obviously some of it is backwards looking but Cup winners tend to win more than one , they are at the top of their conference or division a number of times leading up to their Cup ,they have studs. Carolina and St-Louis being the outliers in the last 50 years.
— I don’t get the cap circumvent so Vegas doesn’t count stuff. I am reminded about the stunts that Lou Lamerello was know for. He was apparently famous for always asking:” what does it say in the rules and regulations. Do they say we can’t do it”.
— Vegas wise cap circumvention isn’t illegal. Just as tax avoidance isn’t. Vegas took advantage of what is available. They didn’t cheat because as some would have told Lou:” it’s not illegal in the rule book”.
I’m thinking there may need to be a reckoning at some point in regards to a Canadian cap of sorts. It isn’t a level playing field. Canadian teams are playing at an active disadvantage to American counterparts. In some cases, like California or New York, this is an issue as well, but quality of life makes those calls less dramatic.
There are inherent perks in every market, I don’t know how to make the monetary playing field even at an organizational level, however it behooves the league to try. No wait, there’s revenue sharing and players free pass excuse to not want to play in Canada being money (that’s not the only reason, especially for the young players).
— Yeah that’s not going happen. Bonkers proposal. Are you suggesting some calculation for the difference in tax in Canada Vs US (which isn’t the same in each state or province
— My point was Vegas maximized the rules to their advantage. Your counter is : give Canadian teams more cash to spend on players? I don’t get it.
The NHL could have changed it after the Tampa Bay fiasco but chose not to. I agree it’s cheap but completely within the rules.
They don’t really need to change anything but to enforce the parameters of the existing system.
Teams are obligated activate players off LTIR once they are deemed fit to play. I presume that Stone was no “more fit to play” games 1 of the playoffs then game 2 of the regular season.
The sole issue is permitting teams to not abide by the requirement to activate players.
By knowing they could get away by delaying Stone’s return (against the rules), they were able to acquire Barbashev.
A player that was on LTIR to end to season should not be eligible for the first round of the playoffs.
A simple solution might be that each playoff team accumulates additional cap space for the playoffs at the rate of $1,000,000 per game played. In the case of VGK, they can play Stone in Game1 of Round 1, but they would need to sit out $8 Million of other players, or Stone is available to play in Game 9 of the Playoffs which would have been Game 4 of Round 2.
If you wanted to bring up a league minimum player, he’d be available for you in Game 2 of Round 1. We need to consider the salary of the player or impact of the player to decide when he can join the team for the playoffs if that player was not on the roster for Game 82 of the regular season.
This season the VGK management would have had some difficult decisions to make at the Game 82 mark of the season regarding Mark Stone, which would have levelled the playing field.
This is the piece that bothers me. People are lying including medical staff. It’s more than a loophole in the rules, they are there
Owners like Gary’s franchise values and growing profits a lot more
Sorry to hear the news today LT. I know that affects many dear friends and colleagues. Sad.
Bell v Rogers is starting to feel like a bit of a mismatch. When your prime sports media assets are the CFL and the WJC, you know you’re pushing upstream.
Sorry to hear about 1260 LT, but not surprised. Legacy media behaving like dinosaurs gets them predictable results — extinction.
One thing I have resounding faith in is your ability to adapt. I know I’ll be an early subscriber when your eventual podcast lands.
Absolutely devastating — especially for those whose professional careers were completely overturned in such a heartless and sudden manner.
I do hope that everyone lands on their feet — Dustin Nielson is a unique talent, but the entire 1260 roster was very solid.
Edmonton sports fans deserve a diverse conversation, and with everything now being focused on the ol’ boys at CHED that took a massive hit today.
Best of luck to everyone impacted today.
But man, this just sucks.
Just a reminder for some – we were killed at even strength against the cup champion Knights.
18-9. Not close at all.
You can either dismiss this as a fluke or learn from it.
Can we do something in between?
Learn from it and try to improve, while also acknowledging (or believing) that 18-9 did not accurately reflect the balance of play at 5v5/even strength.
2 of those EV goals were empty netters.
And the 9-15 (37.5%GF) 5v5 result was accompanied by:
52.1% shots
53.4% xGoals
56.0% scoring chances
54.0% HD scoring chances
(while also winning the special teams battle)
Their goalie was better than ours and they found areas to exploit the Oil. Credit to them they are a great team, someone at the Athletic showed it was statistically the ‘luckiest’ any team has ever been to win a cup. Sometimes a little luck when the difference is so minimal is the edge.
Vegas protected their goalie better than the Oilers protected theirs.
Andre Racicot could play goal for Vegas.
How come Laurent Brossoit couldn’t manage a .900SV% this playoffs?
(he was .841 in his 3 appearances vs. Edmonton as well).
You’re supposed to forget that Aiden Hill went on a heater at the perfect time. Remember, it’s all about their great 5v5 play.
I watched every game of the last 3 rounds the Knights played and, to eye and in my opinion, Aidan Hill was full value for his numbers).
Edit: Apologies, that response was meant to be to Godot’s post
Lack of finish is a thing.
The 2RW hole should be a priority.
I noted this prior to the deadline – especially noting that relying on #56 to win a Cup was a bad risk.
Shame given how cheap wingers can be at the deadline that the team didn’t see it coming.
They likely could have acquired Conor Garland from the Canucks for free with salary retained.
Maggie the Monkey says she’ll come out of retirement to play 2RW and will score twice as many and at a third of a cost as that last guy did riding on Leon’s coattales.
Agree other teams value players that can finish more. The Oilers have guys that have to assert wanting to shoot, so wanting to score. Multiple guys have mentioned it. Leon Kane and Bouch are about it
Connor and Nuge reverted in the playoffs to their previous lower quality shots and were not at their reg season level
Overall in the playoffs…
Oilers were at 48% goal share at 5V5
Knights were at 66.67%
Trying to rely on the power play to win a cup is not likely to be successful.
I don’t “dimiss it”, however, I do put it in context which is that I don’t believe the Oilers were materially outplayed at 5 on 5 and maybe not even outplayed at all.
Essentially, I don’t believe the goal totals reflect the level of on-ice play.
Yes, the Knights did some things very well, systemactially, and created some 5-alarm chances – full credit to them for that. The Oilers also did alot of good things, had a ton of pressure and possession and many high danger chances. There was goaltending, there was a lack of finish by good finishers. There was luck.
Thank you for this.
My memory told me that Broberg was coming along quite well – I remember quite a bit of praise for his game mid-season.
Yes, he was playing third pairing (with Bouch) but my recollection was he was settling in nicely and the numbers confirm that.
The issue was the PK was so damn bad that they needed Vinny in the lineup and that really hurt the run that Broberg was on as his consistent ice time and deployment was up-ended.
Remember, Vinny got his 1st game right after the Kings scored 4 PP goals.
I truly believe that Broberg was showing he is a legit every day 3rd pairing d-man and, if he is deployed with consistent minutes, he will thrive and potentially press up the lineup.
Clearly 2RW (6F) remains a hole and its likely they will try and plug that internally this off-season (i.e. Dylan Holloway) unless they can find a bargain veteran (i.e. Brown agrees to come cheap and/or bonus laden).
I’m not so sure that 2RD is a hole, i mean, I think that Cody Ceci is a fine 2RD and at a reasonable price.
Of course, Ceci has been playing 1RD which is above his pay grade but its the job he’s been tasked with.
I think that Ceci (or maybe Broberg if he pops with Ekholm) will be a fine 2RD this season.
I think Bouchard COULD thrive with Nurse. Yes, I know, he has had his struggles in the defensive zone but I saw real development there through the season including in his puck retrieval urgency and physicality. He does seem to be slow to recognize danger developments at certain time but it will come.
I think Evan Bouchard is a fantastic fit to be on the ice with Connor McDavid for many 5 on 5 minutes. I have seen Darnell Nurse thrive with Connor McDavid and I think that trio will massively outscore including winning minutes against the opposition’s best.
Nurse had an “uneven” season to my eye but his numbers ended up being very good. I think he will be a more consistent defender next season and, if he’s with an elite puck mover like Bouchard, that pairing COULD thrive.
Lets not forget, Darnell Nurse has “shined up” the likes of Ethan Bear, Tyson Barrie and Cody Ceci in the past – Evan Bouchard would be the highest skill d-man he’s partnered with.
Make it so!
Ekholm Bouchard
Nurse Broberg
will be the superior deployment of the four.
It is not wise to deploy your most offensive but defensively challenged D with you best shutdown defender.
Forget the nonsense of 1st pair, 2nd pair. It is outcoring pair, shutdown pair.
I disagree on the that and have stated my reasons many times including in the post you are responding to. We clearly disagree, and we can simply leave it at that – neither of us is “right” – but I note that you don’t respond to any of the actual reasons for my opinion but just that its wrong.
Many other teams would take this natural advantage and run, allowing speed wobbles for the youth
Then make sure you have one, and play the third pair so you can rely on them and keep the group TOI down
Terrible news Lowetide. However, I look forward to your new podcast. I listened to you and Jamieson on podcast almost daily. You have fans, they are legion.
Very sorry for LT and all the fine people at the Edmonton TSN radio station…this is a real loss.
is it possible another corporation picks up 1260?
Well, these Bell cuts began a few years ago in other cities….nobody can pretend to be too surprised.
Sure sounds like all news from Bell will be coming from a handful of people.
Which is a joke.
The Athletic has been doing this as well since the NYT takeover. Less local content.
Considering the ratings just came out last week and the Gregor show pulled ahead of Oilers Now…….
Oh, and the CFL.
wtf TSN.
Terrible news today LT and the TSN 1260 gang.
Gutted to hear about this. Totally gutted.
Devastating news for the TSN 1260 gang and it’s listeners.
I wish the very best to everyone at 1260, to those in front and behind the mics.
On days like this I wonder if a petition would help. Fundraising? Picketing? Take it to the streets? Social media barrage of TSN?
Man I live in Ottawa and loved listing to your show during my lunch hour. Awful news for the whole 1260 team best sports radio ever. when you get a podcast I will be subscribing to it. would love to have you Lansky and Bruce do a podcast call it “The Three old farts”
Hey LT and gang.
I just saw/heard the news. That is horrible news for the folks who brought us our daily fill of the Oilers. I know that when my dad passed away in January 2017, I spent a lot of time driving between Lac La Biche and Edmonton and 1260, especially LT, gave me a sense of normalcy and escape that I badly needed during that time. For that I will forever be grateful, and grateful for this page.
Keep the faith LT and keep writing those wonderful articles here and on The Athletic.
This is devastating news – holy hell.
Dusty, LTE, LT, Gregor, Struds, Connor H., Gazolla, Matty Kassian – all the regulars, a massive part of my daily life – I feel so bad for all of them (and am not sure what the hell I’m personally going to do with all this lost content).
The Morning Mandate was a staple of mine.
Not to mention, their long time guest including, of course, Bruce McCurdy.
Terrible news, feel bad for those who are losing their job and especially LT for this outlet he has, back to the written word alone for now. Seems like a good day to hit the donate button.
I live in an alternate universe (from this one even!). Thanks for the bad news and the reminder that we may not help 1260 but we can still support Al. done.
Worst day ever. What an absolute loss for this city. I can only hope that there is something that comes out of this, whether it is a new podcast network or some other form of live show on Youtube, that pops up.
Winnipeg Sports Talk on YouTube is very successful. Former TSN 1290 hosts. Hopefully a similar format can be duplicated in Edmonton.
Brutal news on TSN 1260. Hope everyone lands on their feet. That’s a huge portion of the Edmonton sports scene suddenly silent. I hope not for long.
the day edmonton sports radio died?
Vegas was a very good team and worthy of a cup, but it still irks me to no end when a team is so egregiously beyond the cap. It’s like there’s a completely different game being played. I don’t fault the teams for playing it but wish it would be cleaned up.
Proposal: any player that doesn’t play after the trade deadline cannot dress until game 4 of the playoffs.
Rationale:
this started back with the Hawks in 2015. and I think all 4 of the last Cup Winners have been over … so the Vegas win shouldn’t bug you anymore than Tampa’s or Chi’s or I believe COL was over too ….
When leagues or businesses have stupid rules, teams will circumvent them …
I do agree it should be changed. Your proposal is very interesting !
Playoff lineups should need to be cap compliant. You could still add say Stone to your roster when he’s healthy, but you can’t dress a lineup that’s over the cap. I don’t get why this still goes on at all!
If and when the oilers circumvent the cap, the league will ultimately change the rules…… because Oilers.
I suggested this a few weeks ago – make the dressed (20 man) playoff rosters cap compliant. Salaries of injured players, healthy scratches and black aces excluded. Should be fairly easy to implement.
Goddamn it TSN!!!!!
Point the finger at Bell Media. This is 100% on-brand for those ________.
Send a tech out to St. Albert immediately to get the podcast up and running by 10 😉 Now they will actually get paid what they’re worth.
Whoa. No more 1260 TSN? Sad day indeed.
Wow, that’s brutal news about 1260, sorry to hear LT.
Cancelled 1260?
wow, that is absolutely brutal. Gregor has moved to daily faceoff for a lot of podcasts and has been doing a ton of ON content.
I hope our gracious host can host an online podcast or create a platform where we can continue to support him.