The line “he scored in every league he played in” hasn’t been used on an Oilers draft pick in some time. The last truly dominant season by an Oilers pick was a defenseman (Evan Bouchard 2017-18) although Kailer Yamamoto had a strong season the same year. Are the Oilers going to run out of skill in the Connor McDavid era?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers roster construction missing one final piece
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
- Lowetide: Predicting Oilers star Connor McDavid’s 2023-24 stats
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland on salary cap space, Steve Staios, 2023 NHL Draft
- Lowetide: What are Oilers’ best NHL Draft bets for 2023 second-round pick?
- DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
- Lowetide: What do the Oilers have in defence prospect Max Wanner?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers AHL prospect stock watch: Is Raphael Lavoie NHL-ready?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers position-by-position depth chart entering offseason
- DNB: Edmonton Oilers fan survey results: Belief remains in team’s Stanley Cup window
- Lowetide: Why Edmonton Oilers’ right wing overhaul is about to hit overdrive
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers guide to saving an NHL Draft on just three picks
- DNB: Why the Oilers are preparing to hold on to Cody Ceci this offseason
- DNB: What I’m hearing about Oilers’ offseason plans: Trade candidates, Erik Karlsson interest, more
- Lowetide: How the Oilers may handle a change in management
- DNB: The Oilers missed a true Stanley Cup chance this year and the contention clock is ticking
- Lowetide: Can Oilers prospect Raphael Lavoie make the team in 2023-24?
- DNB: Oilers offseason priorities: A 10-step plan for ensuring success next season
- Lowetide: 7 ways the Oilers can create cap room for 2023-24
- DNB: How the Oilers roster could soon look different
- DNB: Oilers GM Ken Holland focused on ‘unfinished business’ entering final year of his contract
- Lowetide: Identifying a 2023 NHL Draft sleeper prospect for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Stock up or down for every Oilers prospect in the system
AHL FORWARDS, ONE-POINT GAME OR MORE IN ENTRY DEAL
- Shawn Horcoff 1.167 (age 21) (2000-01)
- Anton Lander 1.13 (age 22) (2013-14)
- Linus Omark 1.107 (age 23) (2010-11)
- Cooper Marody 1.103 (age 21) (2018-19)
- Ryan McLeod 1.00 (age 21) (2020-21)
- Jason Chimera 1.00 (age 22) (2001-02)
- Tyler Benson 1.00 (age 22) (2020-21)
There’s some fine talent here, and some recent names too. It’s funny how the mind goes to Shawn Horcoff and Jason Chimera, while also clicking on Ryan McLeod’s name as being in the same group. Unfair to be sure, but foot speed (Anton Lander, Cooper Marody, Tyler Benson) had an impact on several careers. I have no answer for you on Linus Omark. No freaking idea why he didn’t have a longer career.
BUYOUTS BEGIN
Kailer Yamamoto is so obvious it hurts. Edmonton saves $2.66 million on the buyout and pays just $433,334 this season and $533,334 next year. Some, not all, are viewing this as an opportunity to hammer the young winger. To be clear, he has talent and is an NHL player. His cap hit, at $3.1 million, is too much for what he brings. That married to the fact his roster spot is a big part of the summer upgrade required, and we are here. I have zero issues with Yamamoto as a player. He’s a brave soul and I believe it was a smart draft pick. He’s going to play in the NHL next season, but not for Edmonton. For what it’s worth, I’m sure the team tried to trade him and may take their time buying him out. However, he’s gone.
JESSE PULJUJARVI
He would never sign back in Edmonton, but the Oilers would be wise to consider it. JP didn’t set fire to the eastern conference and sometimes that resets a player (Marty Reasoner is an example). I do think both young wingers are going to sign contracts for $1 million or so, and that’s going to mean (likely) two value deals elsewhere.
EVAN BOUCHARD OFFER SHEET
The Oilers have slow played him and pushed back the clock on entry and now he’s blossomed. If I were advising him, I’d say take the offer sheet if it’s from a strong NHL team like Carolina Hurricanes, New Jersey Devils or Seattle Kraken. He doesn’t owe the Oilers anything. NOW, if he is convinced the team will go long on a strong deal one year from now, this is a good team for him to post major boxcars. If you’re asking me to handicap the possibility, I’ll say 25 percent. It should be 75 percent but the NHL. Bouchard in and Pesce out isn’t a bad move for Carolina if the veteran won’t sign, and I wonder if the two teams consider a trade. I believe Bouchard being dealt is possible this summer.
Moves: I traded Kailer Yamamoto to Washington for a fourth-round selection; I traded Warren Foegele to Philadelphia for Helge Grans; I traded Evan Bouchard to Carolina for Brett Pesce. Signed RFA’s Ryan McLeod, Klim Kostin and Raphael Lavoie. Signed free agents Connor Brown, David Kampf and Max Pacioretty. There’s about $350,000 left.
There’s simply no way the Bouchard-Pesce trade is made, but the Oilers have a few things going on that make it possible. Here they are:
- Threat of an offer sheet is real.
- Pesce is a strong defender, something the Oilers need badly on the RH side.
- The club would be in good position to sign him in the 2024 offseason.
- Ken Holland has mentioned the Broberg playing time is weighing on his mind. The Ekholm-Broberg tandem may be famous in a good way one year from now.
It’s that damnable Eric Tulsky you should be worried about in this situation. He’s sitting in front of his bank of computers with his math experts alongside building diabolical scenarios. He sees a team vulnerable to an offer sheet, a player in Pesce who may not sign long term, and the math says opportunity is knocking.
Evan Bouchard is the last great offensive player in the McDavid cluster. I don’t know one damn thing about what Ken Holland is thinking, but I can read the tea leaves. The Ekholm trade, combined with the acquisition of Pesce, strengthens the team’s defense.
Losing Bouchard would be devastating, because he’s such a creative puck mover and power-play force. I might be wrong, but believe Holland would at least contemplate it.
After reading up on Pesce, the Oilers have to grab this guy, he would be a serious difference maker.
Tanev for Ceci is a hockey deal I do if CGY retains the difference. Tanev is better for one year but Ceci is cheaper and signed for two years.
I don’t think we need to be too cute with the off-season moves. It’s much better to wait until we get to Christmas and see what the real holes are. Young guys will progress/regress and injuries happen. It would be a dman shame for Holland to blow his load in July and tie his hands next spring. I don’t think he’ll do that so don’t expect much movement this summer.
Kane McDavid Hyman
RNH Drai Kostin (if Klim signs a cheap 2 year deal he gets pumped)
Fogele McLeod Brown (reliable 3RW with some offense – backup plan at 2RW)
Holloway Dowd Ryan (Yamo for Dowd as LT suggests)
Lavoie/Borg
In isolation, I think its highly arguable that Tanev is “better than” Ceci.
He is also turning 34 before the calendar turns and, after couple seasons of playing full games, he was hurt again last year which is his history, like every season but for those two.
Sure I know the injury history but Tanev is quality. Wheels are going to fall off soon but I think he has a year left. Just spitballing.
Another idea is whether you could turn Ceci and Broberg into a resigned Pesce. Is that worth it?
The defense is a riddle right now. LD is set with Nurse/Ek in the top 4. Kulak is great exactly where he is (4/5 who elevates in the playoffs). Broberg is quality but needs playing time in Kulak’s slot. Good problem to have.
RD is cloudy. Ceci is fine as a 2RD when healthy but over-matched as a full-time 1RD. Maybe we play him with Ekholm on the 2nd pair in a more shutdown role? Can Bouchard make the jump to play with Nurse? Maybe if they play Nurse/Bouch in a more sheltered offensive role with the McDavid line. We need to see Bouch play some tough minutes before we sign him longterm so this season is probably the time to find out. Is Desharnais able to elevate a bit more to a full-time 3RD who can handle the playoffs?
I think where I’ve settled on defense is that we hold until after Christmas when we know more about Ceci’s health and Bouchard/Broberg progress. But this has got to be sorted out by the trade deadline with players and system both in place and ready to go.
Looks like that Sunbelt SCF was a bust in terms of viewership. Let the Oilers in Gary, they’ll bring 3 million rabid viewers on board!
https://www.insidehook.com/daily_brief/sports/nhl-ratings-dip-champions-league-soars
I just came to laugh at HH for the OEL trade.
Ha!!!!
Also screws Arizona out of one of their retention slots for duration of buyout
Good thing the Oilers aren’t still paying James Neal for another two seasons…oh wait.
It’s crazy how Calgary didn’t trade Lucic once his signing bonus was paid (two times over) like you told us they would.
And quite the audacity to come here today telling how much cap space the Canucks will have if they can move Tyler Myers after his bonus is paid this summer.
Sutter liked him.
Go figure.
But wait there’s more.
They are trying to give Garland away but can’t without adding
All for the low low price of a blue chip prospect
No limit on number of buyout cap hits on the cap – totally separate from the max three retained salary spots.
CapFriendly@CapFriendly
lose one of their 3 retained salary (RS) slots for the next 8 years.
Breaking: #Yote
We recently learned that a buyout on a RS contract results in the original team losing a RS slot for the whole buyout duration
We’ve already updated the site to reflect that new understanding!
4:34 PM · Jun 16, 2023·933.9K Views
I guess that makes sense – its already a retained contract – duh.
Sorry about that and thank you.
Noah Hanifin about to hit the trade market.
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2023/06/calgary-flames-will-likely-trade-noah-hanifin.html
Nurse + pick for Hanifin. Lets go lol
Is $4MM enough to make up for how much worse that makes the team.
Note 29% TOI vs. elites last season and goal share of 37.9%
As we just saw with the OEL buyout, cap space is huge this off season. The 4MM is enough cap space to fit Pesce. How much better are the Oilers with a Hanifin-Pesce second pairing and a Ceci-Kulak third pairing?
That said, Nurse would never waive his NMC, so there is no point discussing it.
I don’t think Pesce is coming over for free, asset wise……
OEL to be bought out by Canucks per TSN.ca
per TSN
Year 1: $146, 667 ($7.1M in savings)
Year 2: $2,346,667 ($4.9M in savings)
Year 3: $4,766,667 ($2.4M in savings)
Year 4: $4,766,667 ($2.4M in savings)
Year 5: $2,126,667 ($2.1M cap hit and cost)
Year 6: $2,126,667 ($2.1M cap hit and cost)
Year 7: $2,126,667 ($2.1M cap hit and cost)
Year 8: $2,126,667 ($2.1M cap hit and cost)
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/vancouver-canucks-to-buy-out-oliver-ekman-larsson-1.1974142
wow
Also per the TSN article, the Coyotes are on the hook for 12% of the buyout
I guess I see the incentive in the short term, $7.1 in cap saving this year is a big matzah ball
I guess they talked themselves into the cap increase covering the buyout costs after this year??
Lord that’s ugly. What’s the total dead cap, $20.5M-ish?
At least they still have Conor Garland to show for those draft picks…
Some G.M’s are all about today they figure who gives a shit about the next G.M if I get fired. I hate buyouts unless absolutely necessary look how long that Sekera buyout lingered.To this day I still can’t wrap my head around it and at the time made me question Holland’s decision making.
Reja, to counteract that “next GM’s problem mentality” and to improve the alignment of interests, I would propose that a part of a GM’s compensation package is deferred and based upon how the team performs after the GM leaves.
Because $5.5MM a year to play on the third pairing is too much money. He didn’t blow the doors off in DAL either. He never recovered from his knee injury, and there were kids pushing up from the minors on value deals. It was painful, but it was the right call.
Sekera was full value for his $5.5MM cap hit and that signing was going splendidly.
Then, with one Getzlaf hit, boom, he became a replacement level player and, after like 2 years of LTIR and poor on-ice ability, the Oilers needed the cap space.
I didn’t like the buyout but that was one that “worked”.
I still remember when OEL was the goods.
He’s only 31 (nearly 32), but it seems like he’s been washed up for years now.
Some players age a lot worse than others. It’s bizarre.
PK Subban was another guy who went from elite to finished in the blink of an eye. He’s only 34 and hasn’t played in a year. He was finished three years before that when he arrived in New Jersey.
It’s hard to believe that Alec Martinez is almost 36 and he played top pairing on a Stanley cup winner. His d partner Petro’s already 33.
OEL was a passable second pairing D in his first season in Vancouver but suffered a knee injury at the World Championships.
Last season his mobility was horrible.
Holy shit, that’s a whopper!
Poor HH!
Why they traded for him for short term gain, betting on a roster that was dead in the water, is baffling.
One could almost say the same: it’s baffling that they would buy out OEL for short-term gain, betting on a roster that is dead in the water.
I guess the alternative is burning it down, which means losing Petterson, and Allvin’s not willing to do that.
When the Oilers were speculated to be interested in OEL from the Yotes, many of us were very much against paying a big price for him given the contract and regressions.
When the Canucks traded for us, many posited it was an awful trade as, even after the retention, he was not value for his cap hit and regressing and the “bad cap” that was disposed of was all one-year commitments.
We were told about sure bounce-back – didn’t happen.
We were told about subsequent bounce-backs with certain partners – didn’t happen
There have been many bad trades in the Oilers org over the last decade or so but the OEL trade has to be one of the worst in the recent era of the NHL.
Is OEL on a 1 year, 1 million dollar deal worth contemplating? Or is he worse than Kulak?
Murray did set a very low bar for an “extra parts” defender.
He’s done.
This is a pretty magnanimous post, given that “we were told” by the goalpost-mover-in-chief around here.
Good thing Kenny balked at trading away Bouchard for OEL. Some people would have been willing to make that deal.
The big question now is can they move Tyler Myers and his $6 million cap hit after paying his $5 million bonus in September.
If they can they would have over $18 million in cap space when LTIR is taken into account.
They also need to deal with an excess of wingers so perhaps can add another $4-5 million there.
What good is money if you don’t have a plan why not play OEL on 3rd pairing or wait until he gets injured and put him on LTIR. Exactly who is OEL blocking as a 3rd pair D-Man
OEL was out with injury in the latter part of the season.
His replacements Christian Wolanin and Akito Hirose were both better.
Hirose in particular looked really good after signing as a UFA out of NCAA Mankato.
What do you think about trying to sign Drouin for something like 1×1?
Has proved he has talent and is obviously at a tough point in his career with the last couple of seasons results.
Possession stats have been right around 50% his entire career without putting up a ton of points the last couple years. The opportunity for a low risk-high reward contract for the year. If it doesn’t work you end up burying him in the minors for no cap hit.
i personally am not opposed at all. he struggled mightily in quebec but he has some wild tools.
I can imagine the opportunity of playing with the guys here could be very attractive.
i would like to see him, andreas johnsson, and conor brown on cheapo deals to battle it out for some spots.
Drouin is definitely a buy low candidate – that said, I wonder if he still has the fire to compete for playing time on a contender. He’s mostly been cashing cheques, and going through the motions for the past few years.
Who knows, might also be the losing club issue and he did have those personal issues away from the game. Maybe he has it and would want the chance on a winning team. Not sure.
He’s exactly the opposite of what is needed
But as cheap, elite depth…?
Drouin reminds me a bit of Alex Daigle, both stylistically and in how their careers have unfolded.
What do people think about the change to the CBA for contracts that says the following:
A team who signs a player to a full no trade or no movement contract is not allowed to ask the player to wave their clause.
and the opposite being:
A player who signs a contract with a team and receives a full no trade or no movement clause forfeits the clause if they request a trade.
Idea being that GM’s are more inclined to not offer the full no trade clause and also doesn’t allow players to force the issue on where they go once having the no trade clause and forcing the team to take “the best offer” from whatever teams the player is “willing” to be traded to.
How do you enforce that?
Exactly. It’s very NHL.
Just finished up reading the comments section from yesterday. Not much more I can add to/about LT that hasn’t already been said.
I just wanted to tip my cap to the community here. No matter how many arguments or threads get derailed from day to day it’s times like yesterday(and in November/December) that this place really shows its quality of character.
There really seems to be a lot of very fine people in this community and I’m proud to be a part of it.
Thank you.
He didn’t play a ton of games, but I’d like to submit Dylan Holloway’s 20-21 season.
As a 19 year old he was #5 across US college hockey in points and 3rd in points per game (behind 1st round pick from the previous draft cohort, and a 23 year old from a weaker NCAA conference).
NHLE of 82 13-29-42 I believe.
Yeah, Holloway scored almost as much as Caufield that year. It’s been disappointing to watch his offensive struggles since then.
To some extent, the same is true of Carter Savoie. He had some big-scoring years in college.
I’m holding out for bounce-back from Carter. That said he seems to have a lot of Shremp in his DNA.
I wouldn’t say he scored just about as much as Caufield – while Caufield did play 8 more games, he almost tripled Holloway’s goal production.
Don’t get me wrong, I watched more of the Wisconsin games this year and Holloway was for value for his 11G/35P in 23 games but Caufield went 30G/53P in 31 games.
I do think Holloway has more offence to bring – potentially as a driver of a 3rd line but also potentially as a “Hyman like” puck hound in the top 6 (with MUCH better passing skills).
Points per game were 1.68 to 1.52, but yes Caufield is/was the better goal scorer.
I seem to recall that Holloway basically went pointless his last four games after an injury? Or maybe coming back from injury? On a PPG basis, I thought he was neck-and-neck with Caufield until the injury.
Yeah, Caufield had more goals.
Yeah, I feel like hopes (of posters on this blog at least) were absurdly high for Holloway, which makes any struggle seem tougher.
He had some major injury issues so hopefully those those explain the offensive struggles and he can recover to his previous trajectory.
And yes, Savoie had two really strong college seasons. We will see.
Hopes would reasonably high for Holloway coming in to camp – perhaps a middle six or top 6 spot. Then he blew up exhibition season and the hardcore and casual fans both grabbed on to that. The evidence was there for us before but it was largely disregarded: exhibition season means nothing with respect to NHL readiness of high pedigree/skill prospects.
Brodziak disagrees
Yeah I meant before last training camp. A large chunk of Oiler lineups posted last summer and the one before had Holloway parachuting directly into the top 6.
Al,
I missed reaching out yesterday, but I just wanted to add to the chorus of grateful folks around this place to offer the following observation.
Perspective, grace, and resilience are characteristics we should all aspire to. They are characteristics that I have tried to model for my children – sometimes more successfully than others… it ain’t always easy.
You good Sir are the embodiment of perspective, grace, and resilience. Thank you for your example and the manner in which you gently guide and nudge your followers to adhere to that example. I believe that your Mother and Father, Jo-Anne and your children are/should be very proud of you.
I wish you nothing but the best and believe in my heart that your commitment to perspective, grace, and resilience will lead you to wonderful things, which I believe you richly deserve.
The Winnipeg Ice have been sold and will move to Wenatchee Washington.
The Wenatchee Wild.
https://twitter.com/WenatcheeWild1/status/1669759772810248209?s=20
That’s awesome. Wenatchee is a nice town near some great ski hills.
The landscape is identical to the Okanagan.
Good thing to grow hockey in central WA.
Is it April 1?
Wenatchee is smaller than Moose Jaw or Prince Albert, and it’s basically in the middle of the arid plains, with little traditional hockey culture or corporate base.
Update: I guess they did average 2,600/game for a BCHL team this past year, so maybe it’s a stronger market than I thought. But will it last, especially with a rebuilding team?
Pundits don’t seem to be listening to Oiler players re: Yamamoto… its funny that a guy who’s so universally hated by the chattering class gets requested to be on Oiler lines because he “grinds, turns over pucks, gets pucks on sticks and makes offensive plays.” (Rishaug video).
Look I get certain folks are really upset that the maths ended up being dead wrong about JP. Hey look I’m upset to that he is a gignatic bust with no NHL future but shite happens. I wanted it to work out but JP sucks at hockey so better to cut bait and run rather than looking for a scapegoat for a bet gone wrong. Tripling down isn’t the way to go.
Yamamoto is sorta the opposite player. Scoring is hard and Yamo hasn’t done enough of that but unlike every other winger who gets spotted into the top six he’s actually generating chances. Yea yea I know I know a broken shooter tutor could score more in that role but the evidence doesn’t quite point to that.
I go back to one of my very old lines that you’ve all seen before. Yamo’s scoring is very similar to one Zach Hyman’s at this age.
It would be oh so Oilers to trade away a guy just ready to hit prime scoring. Oh so Oilers.
Luckily Holland is running the team. He’s likely to see the value.
So… buy him out now and then re-sign him to a 1 x $1.25M deal come July 1st?
Yama has NHL talent. For me the Oilers have too many fair weather players, they can excel if the game suits them. Get a lot of points in certain situations. Every player has some strong games, the question is how many in the course of a season at the heart of the game? I’d be happy with less Jekyl and Hyde
The deal is though you need players that are good in some way every game. This is what separates the best from the rest. Yama can be very good or completely invisible to the point that to me his line seems shorthanded. He’s also broken
Yamomota’s done in Edmonton just like Kahun before him. But unlike Kahun I can see the Yankee and Minny Mouse angle keeping him in the league for a couple more ho-hum years.
Yamamoto makes far too many personal business decisions defending, and makes more of them in the playoffs when the going gets even tougher.
The absolute nadir was the “no mas” against Vilardi.
Time to move on.
I’ve never seen a forward that has only 50 Career Goals have such a Cult following. There must be a fair bit of vertically challenged people that visit this board.
Holland does know what he’s doing, and:
1) He said straight up he needs to move out a contract to try and keep the rest of the team together.
2) He said straight up that a buyout is a possibility.
3) He clearly values “big bodies that can play”.
There are those that provide no value at all to what Yamamoto can do on the ice (i.e Reja, Cowboy, etc.). There are those that think injuries have depleted his game and they will keep coming. There are other that think he could succeed in a middle six/3rd line type role.
Most don’t “hate” Yamamoto and some provide value to him but there is little doubt he did not provide value for his cap hit last season and there is little doubt he’s struggled in every playoff season and there is little doubt a contract has to go.
Holland might value him, I’m sure he does, but who do you think is in his mind where he acknowledged a buyout may have to happen?
I don’t think there is any way to logically and reasonably think that Holland isn’t looking to move Yamamoto’s contract out.
think the canes want more oilers after not getting much out of Bear and Puli
Jesse laid a egg in Carolina and that was with full support and every opportunity possible. It was actually quite shocking how bad he was as a result Holland’s number has been blocked in the state of Carolina
For me that was too small a sample. I’d like to see him spend an entire training camp and preseason, get settled, and then go. I don’t know how the hips are though, he seemed fairly slow in Raleigh.
Yes, an offer sheet is always a risk re: Bouchard. But, how much of one?
5 offer sheets have been extended league wide since 2010 (I hope I have that right).
The Kotkaniemi funny business was an unusual set of circumstances with a “personal” element to it, and an obvious overpay for the Canes.
The Kotkaniemi offer sheet was pure genius.
Carolina was willing to eat a big number for one year to pry him away but then promptly signed him to a max term contract at a bargain.
They ended up with a 21 year old #2C at $4.8 million for 8 years.
I’m not suggesting it was a bad move, only that the cap hit on the 1 year deal was an overpay and there was some unique history in terms of the teams involved.
There’s still a unwritten rule about offer sheets if you want to piss off your Brethren of the League that’s the one thing that’ll do it.
Sure, it might have been smart (although an 0.5ppg player isn’t exactly earning his $4.8M/yr yet, and he definitely isn’t a #2C yet, although he still might be in the future).
But the Canes wouldn’t have even thought about Kotkaniemi if they didn’t have revenge for Aho on their minds.
Recall Carolina also gave up a 1st and a 3rd as compensation, so that’s part of the equation too.
The Kotkaniemi bet by Carolina may very well pay off but it has not done so yet.
Serious question – would Bouchard play ahead of Burns on the Canes PP1?
For the same reasons that I doubt the Canes would have any interest in Karlsson, I doubt they would trade Pesce for Bouchard. I also really doubt that they would offer sheet a player from another conference, never mind the fact that last player they did offer sheet (Kotkaniemi) hasn’t really set the world on fire … their owner (Dundon) who’s reportedly quite involved with the day-to-day running of the team, would probably veto that.
I wonder if any of Anaheim, Arizona or Chicago (less likely, Bedard) have designs on Bouchard…. Seravalli mention that Arizona seems like they are about to pivot from their current roster building approach..
Would Bouchard want to play for those teams?
Folks talk about RFAs and offer sheets like the players are innocent bystanders in the process.
Even if teams ‘have designs’ on a player like Bouchard and extend an offer, the player has to actually sign it (and be willing to move on, or return to the team he tried to strong-arm if the offer is matched).
That’s why you seldom see players actually signing offer sheets (only 5 in the last 12/13 years according to jimmyneutron).
There is a less than 1% chance that Bouchard will sign an offer sheet. Other teams know the Oilers will just match it. Holland is well-liked by his GM peers. Good teams don’t have the cap space to screw around like that. Bad teams won’t appeal to Bouchard. This is just click bait material to pass the time, until real headlines are generated.
Well. there’s at least a couple fellas in new GM chairs looking to make their name(s). The prospect isn’t outlandish.
Yams and JP both ended up getting overpaid to the extreme for the putrid value that both finally ended up delivering.
How and why exactly does this happen so often to the Oilers? Are they unable to offer far less money or are they terrified of offer sheets for borderline players?
And finally… what is it with nm clauses for half the team? It’s like going to work on construction and they aren’t allowed to fire you.
Am sure someone is going to set me in the right direction.
Some teams over value their prospects…the Oilers are one of them.
Teams like Tampa, Vegas and Colorado do early assessments and move on from them if they don’t meet an pressing need.
And they tend to sell them before they’ve lost their draft lustre.
Sather was exceptional like that – he’d trade away players who retained a lot of value for other players who fit the vision.
Even Paul Coffey ends up getting a 50 goal scorer.
Yep.
You saying the Oilers over value there prospects is quite funny to me.
Yamamoto and Puljujarvi got contracts that reflected what they would have gotten in arbitration, except Yamamoto got a 2nd year.
I’d like Holland use his experience and get ahead of signings so he can trade them or not over pay
Both Yamamoto and Puljujarvi earned $3M per contracts based on prior performance but both have regressed performance wise on ice since.
This is not unique to the Oilers, there are many players overpaid vis-a-vis performance through the league. I would acknowledge that its probably skewered towards the older “UFA” type contact with age-regression but those two are far from a unique circumstance.
While not quite the production regression level, Connor Garland had a regression year production wise and is far from a $5MM value. Similar with Manginapane.
LT rocking the boat today! Love it.
Expect the most boring of off-seasons. The least amount of roster turnover in a generation is my bet.
I would do a big defence shakeup. I would move out Ceci, Kulak (although he was great in the playoffs, I think the oil can’t afford him on the third pair) and yamo. Then spend the assets to bring in Pesce, promote Broberg to 3ld, and sign or trade for a vet 3rd to mentor Broberg. Deharnais could be the 7d. Then you have a top 4 of nurse/Pesce, ekholm/Bouchard and a third of Broberg/new vet. Dollars should be similar, and that’s a much better balanced d in my opinion. Only cost is assets to bring in Pesce (minus assets gained to trade away Ceci and kulak)
There would be a lot of bidders for Pesce, what is your competitive bid if it doesn’t include Bouchard?
It could be set up like the Ekholm deal. Player + prospect + pick… say Ceci + Bourgault + 2024 1st.
Pesce is younger and cheaper than Ekholm, but he’s not as good (IMO) and is only under contract for 1 more year. Maybe the Oilers could get Carolina to retain a bit?
I was thinking along those lines although that is a lot for a defensive type. Doing that and targeting some fellas that I think fill holes it’s amazing what it could look like
Do your deal, trade Yama for anything, Foegele amd Kemp for Dowd. Bouch at 3, McLeod 1.5, Janmark 1.25, Lavoie and Kostin at 950K, I think that’s all of them
Holloway CMD Hyman
Nuge Drai Kane
Janmark Dowd Lavoie
Kostin McLeod Ryan
Nurse Pesce
Ekholm Bouch
Kulak Des/Bro
21 guys with 1.95M in cap. Who knows what signings will look like but I hope Holland signs typical cap hits, he’s better with less important contracts so I’m hopeful. I would make Bouch wait for a big cap hit unless they can get term, he scored a lot but is far from developed, and Holland needs to stand his ground there
YMMV on specifics but this is in the ballpark from what other teams do – there is a lot that can be done if the GM wants to go after what the team needs, and can make trades happen and do well in them, as the top guys do. I also took the MacCrimmon approach and dealt blocked prospects or ones unlikely to crack the roster and kept picks
I was thinking something along these lines. I don’t know Carolina well enough to know what they need, but probably something in this ballpark
Carolina needs another high end forward, preferably a centre. They are probably waiting to see what happens in Calgary … Lindholm would be a great fit for them.
Ekholm appeal was that he not only filled a need, he had multiple years term on his contract remaining. It makes no sense to pay a similar price for a somewhat lesser player with only one year remaining under contract. Price should be MUCH lower, and even then I am not sure I like the deal anyway.
I wouldn’t be upset with a Bocuhard/Pesce trade, though I understand it would pain some to loose old man Bouch.
Simply put, the Oilers need to better defensively and that’s not Bouchards strength. Yes, his passing and PP prowess may be missed but I feel this team has enough offensive power to compensate for some added help on D.
I wouldn’t mind seeing Ekholm on the #1 PP, as he seems to read off our top end players well and is offensively creative enough. 5 left handed players on a PP would be strange, but had worked before and this is the best PP in the history of the game.
I think the weakness on defence is less than most think on the Defence pairings and more on the defensive -lay of the rest of the 5 man units. Improve the middle six wingers, especially on the RW for solid two way play and things should look much better.
Losing Bouchard would be devastating in my opinion. I’m sure he and his agent understand the importance that he is to this team (cluster), and why Barrie was traded and also sure they’re rubbing their hands together. Pushing the contract for another year or two makes sense because of our current cap situation.
However, with the cap expected to be $90M in 24-25 and assuming another say $3M the following year are the Oilers prepared for the next Draisaitl contract of say $12M? Having another $6.5M defenceman may take Bouchard out of the picture if it’s only $6.5M. As our fine host alluded to yesterday in the title “Too much month at the end of the money”.
Does pushing Bouchard’s contract another year or two make any sense to the player or his agent…I expect not.
As we’ve seen with NJD this week, Fitzgerald is locking up its young stars to max term contracts to take advantage of their prime years.
Kicking the can down the road just results in paying players big coin just as their their performance has peaked and starts a slow but steady decline.
I would in principle lock it up. Why Darnell got a NMC at that price is beyond me (governs everything that happens at the next cap crunch), but you gotta treat each case on its own terms. I guess.
LT, another question to ponder, when Hollond retires next year and Eric Tulsky is the new GM, can he resign Pesce? 😉 If Bouch is traded for Pesec as per, would 25/14 be able to provide similar results on this PP? Or if Bouch signs an offersheet that is too rich for the Oil, to match it and trade Bouch as part of a package for Karlsson?
IIRC both Klefbom and Nurse, who with no disrespect aren’t what I would consider PP wizards, had pretty similar PP stats to Barrie.
The Oilers might make a difficult decision and decide that taking a hit on the historically-great PP would be worth improving their 5v5 D.
But that still doesn’t fix the problem which is the Nurse Ceci pairing.
Are you sure?
Nurse with his main partners over the past 4 seasons:
Nurse-Bear 37.0% vs elites
1410min 49.7%SF 47.9%GF 51.0%xGF
Nurse-Barrie 36.6% vs elites
1146min 50.6%SF 55.2%GF 50.2%xGF
Nurse-Bouchard 31.5% vs elites
688min 56.2%SF 47.5%GF 58.5%xGF
Nurse-Ceci 42.4% vs elites
1584min 50.1%SF 50.4%GF 51.6%xGF
97, 25, Kane and Ceci played 73 minutes together, going 1-7. That skews things, and can probably be placed at the feet of Kane playing hurt.
97, 25 and Kane played 102 minutes together, going 1-10 goals.
Nurse and McDavid w/o Kane were 54 percent goals and 58 percent expected goals.
Nurse-Ceci and McDavid w/o Kane & Ceci were 52 percent goals and 54 percent expected goals.
I don’t know if Ceci is the answer, but do know those Kane minutes are being plugged in to his resume and used as a hammer. I don’t think it’s completely fair.
PP1 forwards of the time applauded Klef’s play with the man advantage, but yeah I think there’s a lot of blue liners you could plug into that system and see solid results.
Stuaffer thinks McLeod will sign a 3 year deal somewhere in the 2s.
That’s a few lineups in a row where LT has moved both Yamamoto and Foegele.
It is true, in order to add even a $1.5M 4C externally, two contacts need to go.
They need to be stronger down the middle. At least until McLeod matures as he’s still pretty uneven and doesn’t seem fully trusted quite yet. Especially if they won’t play Nuggets as 3C. Spend more on C and less on W. That’s how Vegas is built
Given Nuge struggles at wing at 5v5 in playoffs I think they should use Lavoie and Holloway in the top 6 (can’t be worse and adds size and speed and a natural shooter) and run Connor Leon Nuge McLeod. And even out the TOI and get 4 lines rolling. Maybe Kostin will come around with a more complete game as a bonus
The Oilers are likely looking to get Bouch on a 1 year deal around $3MM.
If, say, the Canes were to offer 1 year at $6MM, should Bouch take it?
I think the Oilers would match and figure it out after but say they didn’t – how many fewer points will Bouch produce next season (and in the years after) playing on the Canes than the Oilers? I think he’s a high end offensive player but I’m fairly certain he will produce more in the next few years on the Oilers than the Canes and that will set him up for higher comp, if he wants, right?
I am not sold that he would sign the offer sheet with Carolina. He is a much bigger fish in the Edmonton D room than he would be in the Canes D room. If he is going to sign a one year now and a long term next year, he would have more leverage in Edmonton next year than he could in Carolina, who are not known for overpaying massively on D in general. Carolina has an internal cost structure, as does Jersey, and really try to stick to it.
Ken Holland did tell DNB straight up that a buyout is a possibility but he wants to try and avoid it. Clearly that possibility is Kailer Yamamoto – its the only reasonable option (no, buying out Jack Campbell is not a reasonable option).
I really hope they don’t have to go that route. Surely a trade can be found without even a small poison pill, right? If not, surely a trade can be found with apx $400K retained, getting to the same cap place this season and no dead hit hit for year 2, right?
The thought of losing Bouchard is…disturbing. But cap issues are cap issues, every team has them.
I’d rather trade Nurse than lose Bouchard.
Nurse has a NMC.
Christ on a cracker….how many times must this be explained?
Nurse is unique in the league by the fact he’s a great skater, very physical, and can play heavy minutes. Unfortunately he’s a 2nd pairing D-man with below average hockey IQ making 9 million.
I believe it is HIGHLY unlikely that the Oilers “lose” Bouchard.