Xavier Bourgault is the top prospect in the Oilers system, but he isn’t ready for the role (No. 2 RW) the organization sees him filling one day. Nor is he ready for the role his debut AHL season suggests (No. 3 RW) he will apply for beginning in the fall of 2024. Let’s have a look at Xavier Bourgault.
DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
XAVIER BOURGAULT
Didn’t we talk about him? It’s kind of the time of year we discuss the top prospects, and he’s number one on my list. Xavier Bourgault has been mentioned in every post since July 1. He’s an important player for the organization.
You don’t see him making the club? No, and I’m not sure Bourgault will play much if at all in the NHL this season. Edmonton is going to be a veteran bunch, with Raphael Lavoie possibly the lone rookie. I’m doing the RE series now, figuring out the math, and even Lavoie doesn’t play as much as one would think. This is a veteran Oilers team. Most veteran-laden since 2006.
Could Bourgault get traded? Sure. That goes for every player who isn’t pushing for Stanley, and the draft picks are available too. There’s no stopping now, too late to turn back.
So Holloway, Broberg could be dealt? Yes. I do think the club would need to play them as regulars this season, in order to increase value. In doing so, both Holloway and Broberg probably make themsevles too valuable to deal. That’s my opinion, we’ll see.
Did Bourgault win the role anticipated in Bakersfield as a rookie? Yes and no. He did spend time on the second line, and did get special teams minutes, but his offense was not at a level thought it might be, with Justin Bailey taking on some of those second-line opportunities. That’s a concern.
Did he score less than Kailer Yamamoto or Dylan Holloway as rookies? Bourgault scored .55 pts-game as a rookie, Yamamoto and Holloway both hit .67 pts-game.
Did Bourgault outscore anyone as a rookie? Using pts-game, he outscored Tyler Pitlick (.37), Anton Slepyshev (.43), Ryan McLeod (.41), Raphael Lavoie (.53), Noah Philp (.53). It isn’t the most efficient measure, especially because I suspect the coach was squeezing Bourgault’s playing time.
What about estimated points-60 at even strength? It does change the view. Bourgault’s estimated even-strength points-60 (1.33) is more than Dylan Holloway (1.14) managed as a rookie. Bourgault remains well behind Yamamoto (1.97) who was wildly productive as an AHL rookie.
Was Yamamoto handled differently than Holloway and Bourgault? I don’t have specific evidence, but Yamamoto was coached by Jay Woodcroft in the AHL, while Holloway (all but seven games) and Bourgault (all of his AHL games) were coached by Colin Chaulk.
So Chaulk is the culprit? I think that’s a stretch, honestly. In Holloway’s seven games under Woodcroft in 2021-22, he went 1-4-5 (.71 pts-game). In the games that followed during 2021-22, Holloway posted .65 pts-game. Under Chaulk in 2022-23, Holloway delivered .83 pts-game and looked more capable.
What was Holloway’s estimated even-strength points-60 in 2022-23 with Bakersfield? He delivered 1.60 estimated pts-60 and that remains a shy number.
So, is Tyler Wright the problem? I do think there is some evidence that Dylan Holloway was a little less than hoped offensively based on where they took him (No. 14 overall in 2020). I had him No. 25 overall, saying “big power forward. Strong skater, nice range of skills” but the fact he was No. 25 meant several players were ahead of him on my list with better offensive potential. They included Dawson Mercer.
Tyler Wright IS the problem! I don’t know. I had Bourgault No. 14, and said “there’s just too much offense to ignore” and I still believe that to be the case.
You always say the real heroes of AHL development are men like Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani, Kyle Brodziak. Is this where we are heading with Bourgault? I think it may land there, yes.
What are the signs? Bourgault’s skills turned out to be useful on the power play and the penalty kill. Many of his best moments at even strength involve anticipation, turnovers and good-to-great passes. He is not a volume shooter, but rather an accurate player with a quick release. These are the elements we associate with a middle-six forward, as opposed to a top-six forward.
Where did he finish among 20-year old AHL players in points-per-game? Bourgault’s .55 pts-game ranked him No. 17, behind Quinton Byfield, Lukas Reichel, Luke Evangelista, Jean-Luc Foudy, William Eklund, Roby Jarventie, Tyson Foerster, Vasily Ponomaryov, Ridly Greig, Jake Neighbours, Elliot Desnoyers, Daniil Gushchin, Mavrik Bourque, Will Cuylle, Thomas Bordeleau and Cross Hanas.
Who the hell is Cross Hanas? Second round pick of the Detroit Red Wings in 2020, starred for the Portland Winterhawks of the WHL. Born in Dallas, Texas.
This is awful. The day is ruined! Well, not all is lost. Age works in Bourgault’s favour compared to many of the names listed. Hanas is 9.5 months older than Bourgault, that’s a long time in the development of a young player. Jake Neighbours is seven months older.
What were Pisani, Cleary and Brodziak points-game totals as rookie AHL players? Bourgault is .55, Pisani was .48, Cleary was .69 and Brodziak was .57.
So he’s Brodziak? He delivered similar offense at 20.
I’m going to be sick. The Oilers have McDavid and Draisaitl and have forgotten to draft skill? Bourgault is skilled, and by the time these kids make the NHL as contributing regulars, 97 & 29 will be on new contracts or down the line. Evan Bouchard was the last draft pick in the McDavid cluster who can push the river offensively.
How many of those 16 names are younger than Bourgault? None. He is the youngest in the group.
I hate you with the fire of a thousand suns. Would you like to rephrase the question.
Okay. Tyler Wright drafted Filip Zadina, who you wrote about today in The Athletic. Part of the article talks about his offense. How many forwards who played in the AHL last season, and are younger than Bourgault, posted superior points-per-game totals? First, may I say that’s a great question. The answer is three: Jiri Kulich, Fabian Lysell, Isak Rosen. All Euro kids who came right to the AHL.
So what is your conclusion? I trust math. Math told me Bourgault was one of the 14 best hockey players in the world eligible for the 2021 draft. He didn’t score as much as hoped as an AHL rookie, but did deliver in other areas. I expect a spike in year two. I think the Oilers should sew the seeds of his offensive prowess by feeding him power-play time over Seth Griffith, and placing Bourgault with the team’s top center (likely Lane Pederson).
Give me his projected AHL numbers. I don’t predict AHL totals, but if I did, it would be something like 66 games, 22-32-54, .82 points-game. He’ll score more points if Chaulk slides him on to the No. 1 power play, but I suspect Griffith fills that role in 2023-24.
“He’ll score more points if Chaulk slides him on to the No. 1 power play, but I suspect Griffith fills that role in 2023-24.”
It would be so great to have Griffith on the no. 1 powerplay next year over a young prospect. It would really help the future of the Oilers. Griffith excelling next year is probably one of the keys to focus on for the organization.
How much powerplay time would Borgault be expected to play in the majors?
Mayan Oil
July 9, 2023 8:43 pm
My gut tells me we are likely to see a goalie move next offseason.
Four Scenarios:
1) Campbell still poor and Skinner regresses . We are screwed in goal and need a bonafide starter. New goalie at trade deadline likely.
2) Campbell still poor, and Skinner holds the net on merit. Trade Campbell with the least amount of sweetener attached and find a reasonable 1B/backup for SKinner at about 2-2.5 M. Creates 3M cap space. Might even be done at the trade deadline if someone finds themselves in serious goalie trouble.
3) Campbell rebounds and Skinner regresses. Status quo but with Campbell as starter.
4) Campbell rebounds and Skinner still holds the net Same as number 2 but no sweetener might be required. Could hold both in this scenario, but the opportunity is still there to go cheaper on our tandem goalie to create cap room for use elsewhere.
I think 1) is unlikely, but is of course possible. Many tears would be shed if it happens.
3) is entirely possible but I think Skinner is the real deal.
2) and 4) to me are the most likely and I am hoping for 4) as it gives us the most bang for the buck.
As it stands, we are in the bottom 1/4 of the league I believe in spending on Goalies, which is nice territory Cap wise. However, if we can reduce that spending by 2.5-3 M it is VERY valuable cap space going forward.
Vegas ran 100 goalies last year and had a 5M goalie taking up cap space (circumstance different) and they were fine. Build the best possible team so if you don’t have the goalie it doesn’t matter. Holland’s done it before ala Legace, Osgood, etc.
Harpers Hair
July 9, 2023 5:44 pm
Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
· 9m
DeBrincat will be traded to Detroit. Again, im not sure of the package….will not be a long, long-term extension Im told. 4-5 years, I think.
@Media_Sens
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4m
News Release: The #Sens have acquired forward Dominik Kubalik, prospect defenceman Donovan Sebrango, a conditional 2024 first-round draft pick and Detroit’s 2024 fourth-round selection in a trade w/ @DetroitRedWings in exchange for forward Alex DeBrincat: https://ottsens.com/3O3XUhY
Sounds right. Yzerman was in the driver’s seat. Ottawa, two steps forward, one step back. I remember those days when it was the Oilers getting bent over.
But backwards from where they were if DeBrincat would have re-signed with them, no? It just reminds me of when players wouldn’t stay in Edmonton. Hard to gain traction that way.
It is unlikely the first rounder will be near 7th overall as it’s Detroit’s or Boston’s but not a bad return considering Debrincat held all the cards at a 9M qualifying offer.
The team had filed for arbitration and that provides for a possible 15% reduction from the QO, which was highly likely. The AAV he signed was nominally higher than the likely arbitrator award.
Ekholm at the mall taking in the Brick Invitational final.
Love that they are staying in town and his wife is having their new kid I’m Edmonton.
I know they are moving back to Sweden after he’s retired but he’s full on Edmontonian now.
Evander Kane going to Elks games and giving that little girl a needed thrill, reaching out to charities in town and asking he can help and playing rec hockey in Edmonton.
love it!
OriginalPouzar
July 9, 2023 1:11 pm
Listening to Friedman on Oilers Now from Friday and he mentioned that Zadina is going to start taking Zoom calls with teams in anticipate of choosing his next team.
Of course there will be interest around the league – a high pedigree/high 1st round pick will always get at least one 2nd opinion.
I’m curious what type of contract do we think will be offered. Will he warrant more than one year at league min? I’d be fine with signing him to that contract and he can compete with Lavoie and Pederson for 12F/13F but simply can’t have him at a higher cap hit than those he’s competing with – we’ve seen even $12,500 of AAV make a difference.
I’m thinking that he could get a couple hundred grand more – I don’t see why a Chicago wouldn’t given him that contract and I could see him being a fit in Seattle if they don’t get Tarasenko (or DeBrincat).
Victoria Oil
July 9, 2023 11:44 am
Tyson Barrie’s wedding was the social event of the year in little Victoria and much of it was in my neighbourhood (my invite got lost in the mail). Walked over to the Oak Bay Beach Hotel where many players were staying. I felt a bit like a teenage girl in the 70’s trying to get a glimpse of David Cassidy. No luck, but I got confirmation of a Jack Campbell sighting from another fan, FWIW.
There is nothing one can trade Broberg or Holloway (or Lavoie or Bourgault) for that has the upside potential at their current price point. Young players on the cusp represent the upside potential of a team, and potentially extreme value for money in a hard cap league. One casually trades them at one’s peril, especially since the OIlers have no glaring holes apart from a competent top 4 shutdown right defender.
Broberg and Holloway and probably Lavoie (I am optimistic on Lavoie) are arguably already competent and cheap for a team that is flush to the hard cap. Cap mechanics makes it nearly impossible to trade them.
I’ve said before I think they will find a way to keep Brown in the fold.
Assumptions:
-5% cap increase (to $87.675M)
-$3M of Brown’s bonus is on next seasons cap
-the Neal buyout is still there (a known rather than an assumption)
-$2.5M total for Holloway and Broberg’s next deals
-Bourgault ($925k), Lavoie, Pederson, Caggiula, Kemp (or similar, all at about league minimum) filling out the bottom of the roster
Then there is $9.73M left for Bouchard, McLeod and Brown (which would bring the roster to 22 players).
If McLeod signs this summer for $2.0M x 2 or 3, and if Bouchard signs for $4M x 2 or 3 then there would be $3.7M left for Brown.
$3.7M probably isn’t enough to get it done, but some term and something starting with a 4 likely does (Brown will be 30 next summer).
Kulak, Ceci and Campbell are the most obvious possibilities where some more money could be freed up.
Lots of unknowns on both sides as well obviously, but it seems to me like things are in range where it could be made to work.
Yeah you could be right. I guess the other part of that kind of trade materializing is opportunity. Even if Holland is willing to pay that kind of price for a 1RD, that player has to actually be made available. We will see.
The other thing about any player with term added at the deadline is they have to fit into the cap this year, which is probably more of a bottle neck than fitting them + Brown next year.
There are a few candidates on the current roster who could be Barrie’d, Yamomoto’d or Puljujarvi’d in order to accommodate such a player. You know the names as well as I do and I am certain they know they are expendable if Holland sets his sights on a particular player.
I’m not sure. As has been noted by me and others there are Oilers who could conceivably moved to open up cap space.
Your question is probably better answered by one of the folks who is expecting a 1RD to be added though. Presumably you noticed that I was on the side of it being unlikely.
Yes I’m on that side. Because of Holland’s MO and that he says what he’s up to essentially, and doesn’t have the chops in my opinion to do it well or at all even if he wanted to
Kenny sees and describes walls. Good GMs own jackhammers. And climbing gear
I disagree with pretty much everything you just said, but that’s been established.
If one were to not re-sign Brown (the discussion defmn and I had was Brown vs. a 1RD for 24-25) you can take that $3.7M from my post above and add it to Ceci’s salary and you’ve got $7M for a 1RD and a cheap forward. And there are additional players who could be moved out for additional cap if needed.
These are the decisions Holland is weighing. You’ve already determined he’s doing them wrong, and will continue to do them wrong.
I give him props when he gets things right. He taints most things with shithouse contracts and trade overpays. I don’t think that is unfair, he has an Oiler track record over a few years, they get better a little at a time. He may get them there.
For me the standard are the GMs that win Cups and make moves to improve their weaknesses other than waiting for something to change like the cap or a contract
I subscribe to what Willis mentioned about Vegas and how you can’t get 1D a 1C an elite winger etc.
Are Foegele and Ceci so key to winning a Cup, or a proper RD? Or is Foegele worth more than Bouchard signed long term for the future of the team, and not replaceable by a cheaper player?
At the deadline, if a RH defender is needed and the cap space has been won to do it, I can see any of the first-round pick, Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie or Bourgault heading out of town. In fact, I think it’s more likely than less likely.
Pretty sure the 1st rounder is gone. Lavoie I don’t know because I have no personal viewings of him. Holloway & Broberg moving along is dependant on their seasons I would think.
Bourgault plays a position of need after Brown walks at the end of the season. I don’t see a way they can keep him but that might change things if they know he will stay at a price they can afford.
Next year’s 1st and the 2026 1st should both be in play if Holloway & Broberg live up to hoped for expectations. There is not a lot coming for the ’24-’25 season for cheap contracts so trading those contracts wouldn’t be my first choice.
It would take a ‘pefect fit’ type player for me to move them ahead of depleting draft picks.
As we’ve seen repeatedly in the past few seasons, stocking the bottom 6 on many rosters can be accomplished by signing more established players rather than hoping prospects develop.
There are more players than jobs so if you’re a legitimate cup contender, it can be advisable to take that route rather than suffer the mistakes of developing prospects.
And one of those guys will most likely play top 6 since Colorado has only 5 forwards who you haven’t listed.
It’s true they may be able to get another bargain or two with the ~$4M they’ll have left after signing Colton (and they need 2 more forwards after Colton to get to 13), but there really isn’t much out there.
Looks like only Tarasenko and Tatar left who are any better than the $1M guys the Oilers will be looking at.
Btw, Olofsson is 27 and looks like a roughly equivalent player to Lane Pederson.
Yes, it’s most likely Drouin gets as shot in the top 6 and with a cap hit of $825K that’s a pretty good bet…no risk at least.
Colton is most likely to come in at around $2 million leaving $4.8 million for Ben Myers and which ever of the multiple NCAA signings they made in the $875K range to fill out the roster.
Its likely they will still have around $3 million left over to play with.
Yeah Drouin is a low risk bet. Be interesting to see what kind of player they get when not even his home town team wanted to retain him.
So Ben Myers and some NCAA signings? The only recent forward signing I can see is Ondrej Pavel who scored 15 points at Minnesota State last year.
In any case, wouldn’t that be the literal opposite of “stocking the bottom 6 on many rosters can be accomplished by signing more established players rather than hoping prospects develop” which is where you started a few hours ago?
Signing 23 or 24 year old players is much different than betting on a bunch of meh 18 year olds and spending years developing them and hoping they might play in your bottom 6 some day.
I don’t think anybody sets out to draft bottom 6 players though. If you flit through the draft lists you see that every year some guy from the 4th or 6th round steps up and makes a scout look like a genius. That is why you bother because in a league that prizes parity the lucky bounces and long shots are one of the few chances you get to beat the odds.
Every team is different. Holland inherited two gigantic contracts and not a whole lot else other than a ‘hurry up and fix this’ mandate. The Knights paid a pile and got to pick a pretty good team off the hop. I know you like to find one example and portray it as a path all can follow but I don’t believe things actually work that way.
The Oilers were a deeply flawed team just a few short years ago and it has cost them a lot of cap room to fix that over a short period of time.
Nobody said the ‘Edmonton model’ was worth copying but the ‘Vegas model’ is not one that was/is available to the 30 teams that didn’t buy their team off the shelf. And, yes, they chose very well.
That model is always available unless you fall in love with your prospects.
Tampa has been following that template for the better part of a decade.
If we objectively assess Stanley Cup winners in the cap era, they focus all their attention in their top 6 and top pairing and fill around the edges with trades (often of their pending or recent draft picks) and free agent signings.
Unless your draft picks are sure fire top 6 or top pairing D, they can easily be supplanted by other means as long as your pro scouting is competent.
Dallas and Los Angeles are the most recent examples of teams that are abandoning their old draft and develop dogma and both, like the Oilers, were saddled with a couple of very expensive legacy contracts but are now utilizing other means of rapidly improving their rosters.
Both teams have added impact centres this offseason by means other than the draft and have used market inefficiencies to do it.
Again you leave all sorts of details out of the story. First of all you have to have been drafting competently for a long time so that you have trade capital – which the Oilers were not doing for far too long. You seem to forget in mentioning LA that you have been going on and on about their drafted kids for what seems like forever.
Secondly I would say that the acquisition of Hyman, Kane, Ekholm, Brown, Ceci, Kulak is a pretty strong list of successful pro scouting trades and acquisitions by Holland so maybe he is reading your posts. 😎
It will be if they don’t play Broberg with Nurse to determine whether they have an inhouse solution. But dipping into the Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault pool really collapses the upside potential and the length of the contending window.
It seems more prudent to play Bouchard with Nurse (and McDavid) and Broberg with Ekholm once the coaching staff are amenable to a Broberg push up the lineup.
It makes no sense to make your top shutdown defender have to worry about not only the best players on the other team, but whether his defensively challenged partner is going to make the right play defensively.
So use a system the players can play. I think that is the problem more than Bouch. It has dragged Nurse down as well
Bouch’s numbers are really good. Exactly a fit for what Nurse needs. He’s not perfect but you tailor things to fit your most talented players. He was the top Din junior in his team. He can learn if he’s coached well enough. And sign them long and early. If you’re smart enough to. Oh well
Given that top shutdown defender and “defensively challenged partner” have had success in the past as a pairing and that partner has shown marked improvement in various noted areas, I’m not overly concerned.
I’m not so sure the top shutdown defender would be worrying any less about mistakes being made with a younger, less-established partner, playing his off-side and receiving elite comp minutes for the very first time, right?
At the deadline, if a RH defender is needed and the cap space has been won to do it, I can see any of the first-round pick, Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie or Bourgault heading out of town. In fact, I think it’s more likely than less likely.
I don’t think it’s more likely than less likely, but certainly agree it’s possible.
I would also note that Holland has still never traded a 1st for rental. Pretty sure that applies to young NHLers (like Broberg and Holloway) as well.
If we do see one or more of those assets traded in the next 8 months though (Lavoie being in a different category than the rest), I think we can reasonably expect the return to be a legitimate difference maker who’s under control for at least another season.
Fair enough. I guess I’d add that I think that Broberg and Holloway are far less likely to be included in that kind of transaction than the 1st or any of the other picks or prospects.
The value of each of these players to the team currently, at their current cap hits, and likely 2nd contract cap hits, is more valuable then any trade return.
Ya, sure, if Broberg and a 1st gets you Pesce (and Ceci is moved for, like a 2nd rounder in another deal), ya, that makes the team better today but, given Pesce is all but certainly gone after this season, my goodness it might slam the window shut after this season (when you add in the apx $5MM dead cap hit for next season).
Some of us are higher than others on Broberg but I would almost be surprised if he’s not a legit 2nd pairing d-man by the end of this season – of course, if the coaching staff gives him the deployment required.
If Holloway can stay healthy, I’d be surprised if he’s not a legit impact 3LW by season’s end if not a legit complimentary skilled-mucker in the top 6 – that kid has an early Taylor Hall like motor and the ability to hound pucks – like Yamo but the body and strength to sustain it.
These two have the real ability to provide an impact this season. I expect it.
At the same time, they should continue to be value contracts in the medium term. Both are up for extensions after this season. Even if Broberg spikes to 2nd pairing, his production will likely remain somewhat muted and I can’t imagine a big 2nd contract. If Holloway does end up with some real top 6 time, maybe he does spike to 45-50 points – that would get him paid a bit but coming off his ELC with no arb rights, it won’t be massive.
Keep these guys and play these guys.
The one potential “issue” for me is if Broberg doesn’t get the opportunity I think he’s earned – we know the coaching staff really value Vinny – we’ve seen it.
defmn
July 9, 2023 10:41 am
You used to be kind. You used to be nice.
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I trust math.
Lowetide
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I don’t believe in mathematics.
Einstein
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Just a little off season humour along with a huge thank you for all you do here on this blog. 😇
I haven’t been around a lot this past year as life became much busier than it should for somebody retired but it is my refuge from the less savoury events that seem to dominate the world these days and for that I wanted to say thank you.
Last edited 9 months ago by defmn
OriginalPouzar
July 9, 2023 10:16 am
Did he score less than Kailer Yamamoto or Dylan Holloway as rookies? Bourgault scored .55 pts-game as a rookie, Yamamoto and Holloway both hit .67 pts-game.
I would also suggest that both Yamamoto and Holloway impacted the game to a much higher degree.
Yamamoto was an absolute scoring chance creation machine and he was playing with middle 6 AHL players – his production massively under-valued his performance in the AHL.
As we’ve talked about, Holloway has been all over the puck whenever he’s been in the AHL – he’s like a young Tayler Hall out there in many respects with his motor. The hands might be what the hands might be but his motor and ability to hound pucks with a good physical base, well, he’s going to be a valuable skilled mucker as a floor.
This isn’t a slight on Bourgault but, production aside, he wasn’t the impact player of the other two. Of course, not all prospects develop in straight lines.
Fast Foegele or Miles Wood. A breakaway a game but no finish is how he’s trending. Hoping for more nuance.
OriginalPouzar
July 9, 2023 10:10 am
You don’t see him making the club? No, and I’m not sure Bourgault will play much if at all in the NHL this season. Edmonton is going to be a veteran bunch, with Raphael Lavoie possibly the lone rookie. I’m doing the RE series now, figuring out the math, and even Lavoie doesn’t play as much as one would think. This is a veteran Oilers team. Most veteran-laden since 2006.
I agree with this. Of course, here is hoping that Bourgault pops in his second year pro (recall Ryan McLeod going 28 points in 28 games playing with Benson and Marody) and forces a call-up on merit – that would be fantastic but, truth be told, Holland has put some legit competition between the likes of Bourgault and the NHL. 12-14 forward, right now, are the likes of Lavoie, Pederson, Caggiula and, of course, there is Hamblin, Malone and even McKegg in there.
At the end of the day, this player is a real prospect and will play in the NHL but the org will call him up and insert him when they feel the time is right for the player and the team – there are tons and tons and tons of other depth options for the NHL roster but, of course, if the higher pedigree player forces the call-up, they’ll make it.
flea
July 9, 2023 10:02 am
It is interesting to see the hype around the NBA summer league for their rookies. I wonder if the NHL ever starts up a league like that.
I’d guess not as hockey is a much more physical sport than basketball and the NHL might have agreements with the AHL around starting rival leagues/tours.
It sure would be fun to watch these prospects like Bourgault enter a league wide tourney with playoffs and some kind of championship. It could also allow players like Zadina to show off their skills to prospective new teams.
“If the Canadiens don’t pick me I’m going to fill their net for a decade”
Filip Zadina, quoted at the 2018 NHL draft, who scored all of 3 NHL goals last season.
“He’ll score more points if Chaulk slides him on to the No. 1 power play, but I suspect Griffith fills that role in 2023-24.”
It would be so great to have Griffith on the no. 1 powerplay next year over a young prospect. It would really help the future of the Oilers. Griffith excelling next year is probably one of the keys to focus on for the organization.
How much powerplay time would Borgault be expected to play in the majors?
My gut tells me we are likely to see a goalie move next offseason.
Four Scenarios:
1) Campbell still poor and Skinner regresses . We are screwed in goal and need a bonafide starter. New goalie at trade deadline likely.
2) Campbell still poor, and Skinner holds the net on merit. Trade Campbell with the least amount of sweetener attached and find a reasonable 1B/backup for SKinner at about 2-2.5 M. Creates 3M cap space. Might even be done at the trade deadline if someone finds themselves in serious goalie trouble.
3) Campbell rebounds and Skinner regresses. Status quo but with Campbell as starter.
4) Campbell rebounds and Skinner still holds the net Same as number 2 but no sweetener might be required. Could hold both in this scenario, but the opportunity is still there to go cheaper on our tandem goalie to create cap room for use elsewhere.
I think 1) is unlikely, but is of course possible. Many tears would be shed if it happens.
3) is entirely possible but I think Skinner is the real deal.
2) and 4) to me are the most likely and I am hoping for 4) as it gives us the most bang for the buck.
As it stands, we are in the bottom 1/4 of the league I believe in spending on Goalies, which is nice territory Cap wise. However, if we can reduce that spending by 2.5-3 M it is VERY valuable cap space going forward.
Vegas ran 100 goalies last year and had a 5M goalie taking up cap space (circumstance different) and they were fine. Build the best possible team so if you don’t have the goalie it doesn’t matter. Holland’s done it before ala Legace, Osgood, etc.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
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9m
DeBrincat will be traded to Detroit. Again, im not sure of the package….will not be a long, long-term extension Im told. 4-5 years, I think.
David Pagnotta
DeBrincat has agreed to an extension with Detroit. Hearing 4-years, $7.875M AAV range.
Sens Communications
@Media_Sens
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News Release: The #Sens have acquired forward Dominik Kubalik, prospect defenceman Donovan Sebrango, a conditional 2024 first-round draft pick and Detroit’s 2024 fourth-round selection in a trade w/ @DetroitRedWings in exchange for forward Alex DeBrincat: https://ottsens.com/3O3XUhY
That return seems a little light but I guess the Senators were over a barrel.
Sounds right. Yzerman was in the driver’s seat. Ottawa, two steps forward, one step back. I remember those days when it was the Oilers getting bent over.
Actually, Ottawa paid a 1st, 2nd and 3rd for DeBrincat last year.
They just got a 1st, 4th, Kubalik (45 points at $2.5M) and Sebrango (tough pro debut but a former 3rd who played on Canada’s WJr team).
So they got back most of what they paid a year ago.
But backwards from where they were if DeBrincat would have re-signed with them, no? It just reminds me of when players wouldn’t stay in Edmonton. Hard to gain traction that way.
Yes, that’s certainly true.
It is unlikely the first rounder will be near 7th overall as it’s Detroit’s or Boston’s but not a bad return considering Debrincat held all the cards at a 9M qualifying offer.
The team had filed for arbitration and that provides for a possible 15% reduction from the QO, which was highly likely. The AAV he signed was nominally higher than the likely arbitrator award.
Tyler Bertuzzi for an extended Debrincat. Decent move.
Looks like DeBrincat to Detroit is on the verge of being finalized – per Friedman.
Strike one !
https://www.nhl.com/news/seattle-kraken-draft-pick-throws-strike-despite-never-having-touched-baseball/c-345281064
Ekholm at the mall taking in the Brick Invitational final.
Love that they are staying in town and his wife is having their new kid I’m Edmonton.
I know they are moving back to Sweden after he’s retired but he’s full on Edmontonian now.
Evander Kane going to Elks games and giving that little girl a needed thrill, reaching out to charities in town and asking he can help and playing rec hockey in Edmonton.
love it!
Listening to Friedman on Oilers Now from Friday and he mentioned that Zadina is going to start taking Zoom calls with teams in anticipate of choosing his next team.
Of course there will be interest around the league – a high pedigree/high 1st round pick will always get at least one 2nd opinion.
I’m curious what type of contract do we think will be offered. Will he warrant more than one year at league min? I’d be fine with signing him to that contract and he can compete with Lavoie and Pederson for 12F/13F but simply can’t have him at a higher cap hit than those he’s competing with – we’ve seen even $12,500 of AAV make a difference.
I’m thinking that he could get a couple hundred grand more – I don’t see why a Chicago wouldn’t given him that contract and I could see him being a fit in Seattle if they don’t get Tarasenko (or DeBrincat).
Tyson Barrie’s wedding was the social event of the year in little Victoria and much of it was in my neighbourhood (my invite got lost in the mail). Walked over to the Oak Bay Beach Hotel where many players were staying. I felt a bit like a teenage girl in the 70’s trying to get a glimpse of David Cassidy. No luck, but I got confirmation of a Jack Campbell sighting from another fan, FWIW.
https://dailyhive.com/vancouver/tyson-barrie-wedding-nhl-stars
Yeah… they were at the Local on Friday night… looked like a fun time. Smitty doing his best ‘Frank the Tank’ impersonation
Ah, shit, he couldn’t wait until after next week when I move there? Do I mean nothing to you, Tyson Barrie?
There is nothing one can trade Broberg or Holloway (or Lavoie or Bourgault) for that has the upside potential at their current price point. Young players on the cusp represent the upside potential of a team, and potentially extreme value for money in a hard cap league. One casually trades them at one’s peril, especially since the OIlers have no glaring holes apart from a competent top 4 shutdown right defender.
Broberg and Holloway and probably Lavoie (I am optimistic on Lavoie) are arguably already competent and cheap for a team that is flush to the hard cap. Cap mechanics makes it nearly impossible to trade them.
I would add Bourgault to that list. I think it unlikely Brown is here for more than one year.
I’ve said before I think they will find a way to keep Brown in the fold.
Assumptions:
-5% cap increase (to $87.675M)
-$3M of Brown’s bonus is on next seasons cap
-the Neal buyout is still there (a known rather than an assumption)
-$2.5M total for Holloway and Broberg’s next deals
-Bourgault ($925k), Lavoie, Pederson, Caggiula, Kemp (or similar, all at about league minimum) filling out the bottom of the roster
Then there is $9.73M left for Bouchard, McLeod and Brown (which would bring the roster to 22 players).
If McLeod signs this summer for $2.0M x 2 or 3, and if Bouchard signs for $4M x 2 or 3 then there would be $3.7M left for Brown.
$3.7M probably isn’t enough to get it done, but some term and something starting with a 4 likely does (Brown will be 30 next summer).
Kulak, Ceci and Campbell are the most obvious possibilities where some more money could be freed up.
Lots of unknowns on both sides as well obviously, but it seems to me like things are in range where it could be made to work.
So in this scenario the 1RD that was acquired at the deadline for the 1st & one of the young guys is just a rental?
I think it’s likely a 1RD isn’t acquired at the deadline.
If they do trade a 1st and one of the young guys for a 1RD then yes, that player will almost certainly also be an Oiler in 24-25.
If that happened it could well change the equation for Brown, but not necessarily (additional money would need to go out though, for sure).
Hmm. OK. That would surprise me though. I think it is the missing piece on the road to Stanley.
Yeah you could be right. I guess the other part of that kind of trade materializing is opportunity. Even if Holland is willing to pay that kind of price for a 1RD, that player has to actually be made available. We will see.
The other thing about any player with term added at the deadline is they have to fit into the cap this year, which is probably more of a bottle neck than fitting them + Brown next year.
There are a few candidates on the current roster who could be Barrie’d, Yamomoto’d or Puljujarvi’d in order to accommodate such a player. You know the names as well as I do and I am certain they know they are expendable if Holland sets his sights on a particular player.
How can they afford another expensive D other than as a rental? Someone else has to go
I’m not sure. As has been noted by me and others there are Oilers who could conceivably moved to open up cap space.
Your question is probably better answered by one of the folks who is expecting a 1RD to be added though. Presumably you noticed that I was on the side of it being unlikely.
Yes I’m on that side. Because of Holland’s MO and that he says what he’s up to essentially, and doesn’t have the chops in my opinion to do it well or at all even if he wanted to
Kenny sees and describes walls. Good GMs own jackhammers. And climbing gear
Lol, well I’m glad you got that out.
I disagree with pretty much everything you just said, but that’s been established.
If one were to not re-sign Brown (the discussion defmn and I had was Brown vs. a 1RD for 24-25) you can take that $3.7M from my post above and add it to Ceci’s salary and you’ve got $7M for a 1RD and a cheap forward. And there are additional players who could be moved out for additional cap if needed.
These are the decisions Holland is weighing. You’ve already determined he’s doing them wrong, and will continue to do them wrong.
I give him props when he gets things right. He taints most things with shithouse contracts and trade overpays. I don’t think that is unfair, he has an Oiler track record over a few years, they get better a little at a time. He may get them there.
For me the standard are the GMs that win Cups and make moves to improve their weaknesses other than waiting for something to change like the cap or a contract
I subscribe to what Willis mentioned about Vegas and how you can’t get 1D a 1C an elite winger etc.
Are Foegele and Ceci so key to winning a Cup, or a proper RD? Or is Foegele worth more than Bouchard signed long term for the future of the team, and not replaceable by a cheaper player?
There is so much that could be done
What are the chances we are talking about a Foegele re-sign as much, or more, than a Brown re-sign in 11 months from now?
I would say ‘very low’, but I could be wrong obviously.
At the deadline, if a RH defender is needed and the cap space has been won to do it, I can see any of the first-round pick, Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie or Bourgault heading out of town. In fact, I think it’s more likely than less likely.
I don’t disagree but would suggest its probably one of the latter two with Holloway and Broberg positively impacting the lineup.
Pretty sure the 1st rounder is gone. Lavoie I don’t know because I have no personal viewings of him. Holloway & Broberg moving along is dependant on their seasons I would think.
Bourgault plays a position of need after Brown walks at the end of the season. I don’t see a way they can keep him but that might change things if they know he will stay at a price they can afford.
Next year’s 1st and the 2026 1st should both be in play if Holloway & Broberg live up to hoped for expectations. There is not a lot coming for the ’24-’25 season for cheap contracts so trading those contracts wouldn’t be my first choice.
It would take a ‘pefect fit’ type player for me to move them ahead of depleting draft picks.
As we’ve seen repeatedly in the past few seasons, stocking the bottom 6 on many rosters can be accomplished by signing more established players rather than hoping prospects develop.
There are more players than jobs so if you’re a legitimate cup contender, it can be advisable to take that route rather than suffer the mistakes of developing prospects.
A prime example of this would be the Colorado Avalanche who are busy stocking their bottom 6.
Miles Wood – signed
Andrew Cogliano – signed
Logan O’Connor -signed
Jonathan Drouin – signed
Ross Colton – trade
Fredrick Olausson – trade.
Miles Wood is the most expensive of the bunch at $2.5 million cap hit.
And Colorado is likely not finished as they still have $6.8 million in free cap space to continue grabbing veterans in the bargain aisle.
Colton isn’t signed yet, as you know.
And one of those guys will most likely play top 6 since Colorado has only 5 forwards who you haven’t listed.
It’s true they may be able to get another bargain or two with the ~$4M they’ll have left after signing Colton (and they need 2 more forwards after Colton to get to 13), but there really isn’t much out there.
Looks like only Tarasenko and Tatar left who are any better than the $1M guys the Oilers will be looking at.
Btw, Olofsson is 27 and looks like a roughly equivalent player to Lane Pederson.
Yes, it’s most likely Drouin gets as shot in the top 6 and with a cap hit of $825K that’s a pretty good bet…no risk at least.
Colton is most likely to come in at around $2 million leaving $4.8 million for Ben Myers and which ever of the multiple NCAA signings they made in the $875K range to fill out the roster.
Its likely they will still have around $3 million left over to play with.
Yeah Drouin is a low risk bet. Be interesting to see what kind of player they get when not even his home town team wanted to retain him.
So Ben Myers and some NCAA signings? The only recent forward signing I can see is Ondrej Pavel who scored 15 points at Minnesota State last year.
In any case, wouldn’t that be the literal opposite of “stocking the bottom 6 on many rosters can be accomplished by signing more established players rather than hoping prospects develop” which is where you started a few hours ago?
Jason Polin
Right shot RW.
30G 47P in 39GP at Western Michigan
Signing 23 or 24 year old players is much different than betting on a bunch of meh 18 year olds and spending years developing them and hoping they might play in your bottom 6 some day.
Why bother…that is my point.
Agree completely. At the draft, keep adding skill. You can always sign checkers and some of the skill guys will turn into checkers on you anyway.
Yes…but don’t fall in love with them if they can’t be impact players early.
There’s much to find out about Broberg and Holloway, that’s why playing them this season makes complete sense.
And I thought we were talking about the Oilers, in particular Holloway and Broberg here. Who are you talking about?
Those two will do.
Likely bottom 6 forwards.
Move them before they turn into Tyler Benson.
Benson didn’t hold his trade value backing out of the parking lot on his draft day. He couldn’t stay healthy.
I don’t think anybody sets out to draft bottom 6 players though. If you flit through the draft lists you see that every year some guy from the 4th or 6th round steps up and makes a scout look like a genius. That is why you bother because in a league that prizes parity the lucky bounces and long shots are one of the few chances you get to beat the odds.
The smart guys figure this out early and often and quickly move on from the “projects”.
Dallas, Tampa, Colorado and LA are examples.
That’s correct and all dependent on being good with the cap and contracts
Which Holland isn’t. Well he is with some, but it’s the biggies he shoots his feet off with and is capped out
Good golly I’m tired of my team being so freakin dense and behind and not at the forefront of anything
Meanwhile the Vegas have cap space, all high value draft picks, and a Cup
The Oilers make NHL hockey look so much harder than it actually is
And there winning roster
That is the downward path from the pinnacle.
We’ll see.
It’s exactly what Vegas has done.
Seems to have worked out just fine.
Every team is different. Holland inherited two gigantic contracts and not a whole lot else other than a ‘hurry up and fix this’ mandate. The Knights paid a pile and got to pick a pretty good team off the hop. I know you like to find one example and portray it as a path all can follow but I don’t believe things actually work that way.
The Oilers were a deeply flawed team just a few short years ago and it has cost them a lot of cap room to fix that over a short period of time.
Nobody said the ‘Edmonton model’ was worth copying but the ‘Vegas model’ is not one that was/is available to the 30 teams that didn’t buy their team off the shelf. And, yes, they chose very well.
That model is always available unless you fall in love with your prospects.
Tampa has been following that template for the better part of a decade.
If we objectively assess Stanley Cup winners in the cap era, they focus all their attention in their top 6 and top pairing and fill around the edges with trades (often of their pending or recent draft picks) and free agent signings.
Unless your draft picks are sure fire top 6 or top pairing D, they can easily be supplanted by other means as long as your pro scouting is competent.
Dallas and Los Angeles are the most recent examples of teams that are abandoning their old draft and develop dogma and both, like the Oilers, were saddled with a couple of very expensive legacy contracts but are now utilizing other means of rapidly improving their rosters.
Both teams have added impact centres this offseason by means other than the draft and have used market inefficiencies to do it.
It’s a thing.
Again you leave all sorts of details out of the story. First of all you have to have been drafting competently for a long time so that you have trade capital – which the Oilers were not doing for far too long. You seem to forget in mentioning LA that you have been going on and on about their drafted kids for what seems like forever.
Secondly I would say that the acquisition of Hyman, Kane, Ekholm, Brown, Ceci, Kulak is a pretty strong list of successful pro scouting trades and acquisitions by Holland so maybe he is reading your posts. 😎
But still counting on kids to fill out the bottom 6.
LA is converting all that draft capital now…just as I thought they would.
It will be if they don’t play Broberg with Nurse to determine whether they have an inhouse solution. But dipping into the Broberg, Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault pool really collapses the upside potential and the length of the contending window.
It seems more prudent to play Bouchard with Nurse (and McDavid) and Broberg with Ekholm once the coaching staff are amenable to a Broberg push up the lineup.
It makes no sense to make your top shutdown defender have to worry about not only the best players on the other team, but whether his defensively challenged partner is going to make the right play defensively.
So use a system the players can play. I think that is the problem more than Bouch. It has dragged Nurse down as well
Bouch’s numbers are really good. Exactly a fit for what Nurse needs. He’s not perfect but you tailor things to fit your most talented players. He was the top Din junior in his team. He can learn if he’s coached well enough. And sign them long and early. If you’re smart enough to. Oh well
Given that top shutdown defender and “defensively challenged partner” have had success in the past as a pairing and that partner has shown marked improvement in various noted areas, I’m not overly concerned.
I’m not so sure the top shutdown defender would be worrying any less about mistakes being made with a younger, less-established partner, playing his off-side and receiving elite comp minutes for the very first time, right?
I don’t think it’s more likely than less likely, but certainly agree it’s possible.
I would also note that Holland has still never traded a 1st for rental. Pretty sure that applies to young NHLers (like Broberg and Holloway) as well.
If we do see one or more of those assets traded in the next 8 months though (Lavoie being in a different category than the rest), I think we can reasonably expect the return to be a legitimate difference maker who’s under control for at least another season.
Agreed. I think a RHD of higher quality than was available in free agency will be the target, but that assumes the goaltending is solid to excellent.
Fair enough. I guess I’d add that I think that Broberg and Holloway are far less likely to be included in that kind of transaction than the 1st or any of the other picks or prospects.
Matt Dumba is sitting right there.
Come on.
Would you prefer Dumba on a cheap one year contract or make a bet on Broberg playing on his off side?
Oilers can’t get Dumba on a cheap contract, they don’t have the money.
I agree with this generally.
The value of each of these players to the team currently, at their current cap hits, and likely 2nd contract cap hits, is more valuable then any trade return.
Ya, sure, if Broberg and a 1st gets you Pesce (and Ceci is moved for, like a 2nd rounder in another deal), ya, that makes the team better today but, given Pesce is all but certainly gone after this season, my goodness it might slam the window shut after this season (when you add in the apx $5MM dead cap hit for next season).
Some of us are higher than others on Broberg but I would almost be surprised if he’s not a legit 2nd pairing d-man by the end of this season – of course, if the coaching staff gives him the deployment required.
If Holloway can stay healthy, I’d be surprised if he’s not a legit impact 3LW by season’s end if not a legit complimentary skilled-mucker in the top 6 – that kid has an early Taylor Hall like motor and the ability to hound pucks – like Yamo but the body and strength to sustain it.
These two have the real ability to provide an impact this season. I expect it.
At the same time, they should continue to be value contracts in the medium term. Both are up for extensions after this season. Even if Broberg spikes to 2nd pairing, his production will likely remain somewhat muted and I can’t imagine a big 2nd contract. If Holloway does end up with some real top 6 time, maybe he does spike to 45-50 points – that would get him paid a bit but coming off his ELC with no arb rights, it won’t be massive.
Keep these guys and play these guys.
The one potential “issue” for me is if Broberg doesn’t get the opportunity I think he’s earned – we know the coaching staff really value Vinny – we’ve seen it.
You used to be kind. You used to be nice.
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I trust math.
Lowetide
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I don’t believe in mathematics.
Einstein
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Just a little off season humour along with a huge thank you for all you do here on this blog. 😇
I haven’t been around a lot this past year as life became much busier than it should for somebody retired but it is my refuge from the less savoury events that seem to dominate the world these days and for that I wanted to say thank you.
I would also suggest that both Yamamoto and Holloway impacted the game to a much higher degree.
Yamamoto was an absolute scoring chance creation machine and he was playing with middle 6 AHL players – his production massively under-valued his performance in the AHL.
As we’ve talked about, Holloway has been all over the puck whenever he’s been in the AHL – he’s like a young Tayler Hall out there in many respects with his motor. The hands might be what the hands might be but his motor and ability to hound pucks with a good physical base, well, he’s going to be a valuable skilled mucker as a floor.
This isn’t a slight on Bourgault but, production aside, he wasn’t the impact player of the other two. Of course, not all prospects develop in straight lines.
Fast Foegele or Miles Wood. A breakaway a game but no finish is how he’s trending. Hoping for more nuance.
I agree with this. Of course, here is hoping that Bourgault pops in his second year pro (recall Ryan McLeod going 28 points in 28 games playing with Benson and Marody) and forces a call-up on merit – that would be fantastic but, truth be told, Holland has put some legit competition between the likes of Bourgault and the NHL. 12-14 forward, right now, are the likes of Lavoie, Pederson, Caggiula and, of course, there is Hamblin, Malone and even McKegg in there.
At the end of the day, this player is a real prospect and will play in the NHL but the org will call him up and insert him when they feel the time is right for the player and the team – there are tons and tons and tons of other depth options for the NHL roster but, of course, if the higher pedigree player forces the call-up, they’ll make it.
It is interesting to see the hype around the NBA summer league for their rookies. I wonder if the NHL ever starts up a league like that.
I’d guess not as hockey is a much more physical sport than basketball and the NHL might have agreements with the AHL around starting rival leagues/tours.
It sure would be fun to watch these prospects like Bourgault enter a league wide tourney with playoffs and some kind of championship. It could also allow players like Zadina to show off their skills to prospective new teams.
New for The Athletic: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
https://theathletic.com/4673800/2023/07/09/filip-zadina-red-wings-oilers/
“If the Canadiens don’t pick me I’m going to fill their net for a decade”
Filip Zadina, quoted at the 2018 NHL draft, who scored all of 3 NHL goals last season.