Most summers, the Riesen to Believe series holds some areas of drama, but this year we’re going to have to resort to borderline nonsense to create roster battles. The Oilers, ladies and gentlemen, are damn close to set.
The word "pious" means two things: single-minded devotion, and a sincere but unlikely to be fulfilled hope. Pius Suter qualifies for both definitions, but the Oilers should sign him anyway. It's the right thing to do. https://t.co/7gS5QY5G1s
DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
GOALTENDERS
Stuart Skinner, 24. Oilers receive a true starting goaltender through the draft once a decade whether they need it or not. Assuming the swarm doesn’t make a comeback (should have called it the swim!), Skinner should be good to start through the end of the decade. It isn’t just the fact he posted a .914 save percentage in 50 games, it was the calm feet and confidence displayed. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Jack Campbell, 31. Fell year over year in save percentage (.914 to .888) but regression is likely (for Campbell and Skinner). Don’t be surprised if he spends part of the 2023-24 season as Edmonton’s starter. One good thing: His equipment shuffling should be solved by now. That was weird. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Calvin Pickard, 31. He was .912 and hung on to the AHL starting job but that may not be the case this season. Played well, did have some injury issues and he should be considered the most obvious candidate for NHL recall (if necessary). Chances of making the team: None unless there’s an injury.
Olivier Rodrigue, 23. He emerged as a legit NHL prospect last season, posting a .912 save percentage while carrying the mail for long periods. Some Oilers fans don’t believe in Stuart Skinner, so the idea another goalie is emerging so soon after is simply too much to contemplate. It may not happen, but it is happening. Chances of making the team: None.
Ryan Fanti, 23. A .929 save percentage for Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC) was followed by a pro debut that fell short of expectations. He played in just 8 AHL games (.884 SP) and will need to show significant improvement this season if he is to have a career in the organization. Chances of making the team: None.
LEFT DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse, 28. One of the vital cogs in Edmonton’s success, Nurse delivered 12-31-43 in 82 games and a 56 percent goal share at even strength. Played 23:29 minutes a night, big minutes against elites. He is mobile, rugged and plays a strong two-way game. Addition of Ekholm helps in a big way. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Mattias Ekholm, 33. His performance with the Oilers was (I think) the most impressive since Pronger in 2005-06. He made playing defense in an Oilers jersey look easy and fun, and he was a breath of fresh air. Every stat they track was power and glory. Amazing trade. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Brett Kulak, 29. He scored 3-17-20 in 82 games overall and owned a 52 percent goal share at five-on-five. He was effective as a third-pairing mentor and his speed is a big feature of his game. Many observers want the team to trade Kulak to make room for additions elsewhere. I am not one of them. He’s an important player on this team. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Philip Broberg, 22. He is ready, his general manager has verbally cleared the track, and all that is left involves deployment by Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. His numbers with fellow lefties are good, his five-on-five possession metrics (53 percent goal share) are rock solid. The only downbeat is time (miniscule) versus elites, and he gets caved there. Small sample, but third pairing RH side with Kulak looks like a no-brainer from here. Chances of making the team: 95 percent.
Markus Niemelainen, 25. Big defenseman is a spectacular open-ice hitter but has some coverage gaps. Size and mobility keep him in the NHL conversation, but he got passed by Vincent Desharnais a year ago and may never catch up. His possession totals in the NHL last year (48 percent expected goals five-on-five) trailed actual results (56 percent goal share in the metric), so he was running some luck in 2022-23. There’s a tendency (for all of us) to view the last depth chart as the only one going forward, but a scenario where Niemelainen beats out Desharnais or Broberg this fall does exist. It just isn’t likely. Chances of making the team: 10 percent.
Ben Gleason, 25. He’s a strong passer and skater, he’ll be quality with the Condors and a recall isn’t out of the question. Listed ahead of Hoefenmayer because his contract ($775,000) makes him an easy recall and that may be the difference when needs arise, and his AHL salary ($425,000) towers over Hoefenmayer’s pay in Bakersfield. I think it’s a coin flip between the two, frankly. Chances of making the team: None.
Noel Hoefenmayer, 24. I’m listing him behind Gleason and Dineen for two reasons: Hoefenmayer got a signing bonus, impacting his cap hit, and his AHL salary is $82,500. Hey, business is business. Hoefenmayer’s resume suggests he is more a two-way type than Gleason, but we’ll know more in the days to come and they basically start training camp even. I bet the Oilers were impressed that he wanted to come to the summer camp to get familiar with surroundings. Peter Harling of Dobber Hockey compared his carrer progression to Darren Raddysh here. Chances of making the team: None.
Cam Dineen, 25. I’m ranking Dineen last on the list due to known chaos (he was exciting at both ends of the ice in Bakersfield), but Gleason and Hoefenmayer could be more giving for all we know. Posted a 52 percent goal share at even strength, I liked his game with the puck on his stick. One thing that should be mentioned about this depth chart at LD: It’s far more experienced and proven than one year ago. Last year it was six deep, going Nurse-Kulak-Broberg-Samoukov-Koekkoek-Niemelainen. This year’s depth chart is much stronger, and deeper. Chances of making the team: None.
RIGHT DEFENSE
Cody Ceci, 29. His offense fell (1-14-15) basically in half year over year, and his goal share at five-on-five (49 percent) was the only one below 50 among the regulars. His expected goal share (51 percent) was more encouraging. Played 16:28 a game at five-on-five in 2022-23, a full minute less than the previous season. That toal could continue to fall if he struggles again. Oilers are hoping his “core” injury, a phrase used to the point of farce with this player (just tell us the issue, please) has healed and he can return to previous levels. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Evan Bouchard, 23. Went 8-32-40 in 82 games, his second 40-point campaign in a row. Expect 50+ next season. Absolute home run season on the way, all of his arrows are headed in a good direction. The contract will be done, it’s a bridge over troubled waters. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Vincent Desharnais, 27. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) who plays with an edge and has the wingspan of an actual Condor. His PK work in the minors was impressive and then he brought it fully formed to his debut NHL season. Last year I wrote “he’s a long shot but not a distant bell” and it happened just that way. His five-on-five goal share, 63 percent, doesn’t match his expected goal share (54 percnt) so regression should be expected. That regression, combined with speed issues, make him more vulnerable than it may appear at this time. Chances of making the team: 95 percent.
Phil Kemp, 24.Classic shutdown defenseman doesn’t get noticed when he’s on, but he continues to make yearly progress. His boxcars (6-15-21 in 71 games) spiked, and he owned the best even-strength goal differential (51-41, 55 percent) among regular Condors blue in 2022-23. I think he could play NHL games this season. Chances of making the team: None.
Max Wanner, 20. Drafted in the hazy days of the pandemic, it’s been clear since his draft +1 the Oilers grabbed a significant player in Wanner. His offensive output (30 points in 44 games) is often mentioned, but the key to this player is his defense and his edge. He’ll be one of the key players to track in Bakersfield this season. Chances of making the team: None.
CENTER
Connor McDavid, 26. Transcendent talent, human cheat code, shock and awe over 200 feet of ice. It isn’t just that he’ll score 140+ points next season, it’s that he can be counted on to bring his enormous talent to the game every night. If AI wants to take over the world, start by inventing one word that describes McDavid. I have transcendent already. Give me a better one. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Leon Draisaitl, 27. The big man delivered another impact season and should be good for 50+ goals again in 2023-24. The assignment this year is to drive possession and deliver more than 50 percent goal share no matter his linemates. Some of his numbers were hampered by injuries to linemates, notably Evander Kane, but the big man is so talented I believe he can power through and win the outscoring. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Ryan McLeod, 22. One of just a few early 20’s players who will get prominent minutes on this veteran roster, McLeod showed impressive ability in driving a line at five-on-five, and fans should expect to see him in the middle on the third line with Dylan Holloway and Warren Foegele on opening night. For some reason, knocking this player is in vogue at this time, I’ll push back on that in the strongest possible way. We’ve seen to tip of the iceberg, why do you want to close the book when we’re getting to the good part? I will tell you the Oilers, during the losing years, would pick now to send him away. Credit to Ken Holland for not making the move that became so predictable during the Cogliano era. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
RC Lane Pederson, 26. He’s more substantial than many Oilers fans believe. Pederson’s 2022-23 season was revealing. It shows a young veteran who has found a way to hone his skills and be a utility forward who doesn’t cost his team. He has been pretty consistent as a possession forward in each NHL turn save the San Jose disaster. He’s an astute signing by Edmonton, in a world where every team was looking for a RH center. Chances of making the team: 80 percent.
James Hamblin, 24. A speed merchant with enough skill to score 21 AHL goals in 2021-22, he got to the NHL for 10 games in 2022-23. Hamblin’s minor league numbers in 2022-23 weren’t as strong, and if Noah Philp was still on the roster, I would give him little chance of playing in the NHL this coming season. As it is, Hamblin probably gets some games. Chances of making the team: None.
Greg McKegg, 31. Wildly disappointing start to his Bakersfield season, effectively dashing any hope of recall. He did recover later in the season, and I would suggest a recall is more likely now. Chances of making the team: None.
Brad Malone, 34.He’s a solid AHL center, so Bakersfield needs him. Woodcroft has a great deal of confidence in him, so we could see him in the NHL this year. Every year someone says he’s not good enough, but he seems to find a way. Played 10 games, zero points last season. He may not get another call. Chances of making the team: None.
RC Jayden Grubbe, 20.The Oilers made a solid trade to get this player. Based on the scouting reports, at the very least he’ll slide in to a two-way role in the AHL and thrive. Offense will either allow him an NHL career or keep him from one. For now, I’d say Chris VandeVelde with better boots is a good estimation based on math and scouting reports. That’s a good prospect. Chances of making the team: None.
LC Carl Berglund, 23. He’s a two-way center with a resume that suggests the coaching staff will like his attention to detail. Foot speed is almost always the difference maker with players like Berglund. Even Anton Lander, who had more ability, lost his NHL career because of his boots. We’ll know about Berglund soon. Chances of making the team: None.
LEFT WING
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 30. He’s a terrific player, able to play in the middle or on the wing and provide quality play. He’s also a special teams maniac. His finest NHL season (82, 37-67-104) reads like peak Jean Ratelle, and I’m happy for his success. Always a favourite. He will regress and people will hammer him. He is not perfect, and cannot drive a line five-on-five, so LW on one of the top two lines is his wheelhouse. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Evander Kane, 32. Regression should work in a positive way for Evander Kane, as his season was derailed by injury. He scored at a 30-goal pace, but his goal share five-on-five (45 percent) and expected goal share (48 percent) are a concern. Good health should elevate those totals, and even with injury the big man scored 1.31 goals-60 at five-on-five. That’s a tremendous number. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Dylan Holloway, 21. Speedy winger with great passing, he was a disappointment as an NHL rookie. Holloway found his offense in a late-season trip to the minors and now it’s his time to shine. The Oilers wanted him to blossom last year, this season they need him to do it. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Mattias Janmark, 30. He is a savvy veteran as they used to say. Helps do the chores, is smart as can be, and took a pretty bitter pill (demoted to the minors for cap reasons) like a man. I’ve got all day for this player, pleased to see he’s back for another year. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Drake Caggiula, 29. He has great utility and will get a look in camp, but injuries have robbed him of the things that made him special coming out of college. He shouldn’t be completely discounted as an NHL option. . Chances of making the team: 35 percent.
Carter Savoie, 20.A dominant college season (23-22-45 in 39 games, plus a national championship) got him to his first training camp with a great deal of (earned) buzz. An early camp injury sent him in a different direction, but the goal-scoring talent remains. A big season in Bakersfield would make everything right. Chances of making the team: None.
Matvey Petrov, 20. He is the biggest name graduating to pro hockey this fall. Usually it’s the first-round pick from previous seasons, but Reid Schaefer is long gone. Petrov doesn’t fade under the lights, though, his resume is strong and his showing last week at rookie camp matched the math. He’s going to tell a story. Chances of making the team: None.
RIGHT WING
Zach Hyman, 31. Followed career best totals (27-27-54 in 76 games) with another career best (36-47-83 in 79 games) and is now clearly established as the best major free-agent signing in team history. He owned a 2.37 pts-60 at five-on-five and a 55 percent goal share. I don’t know how they’re going to move him off the McDavid line, don’t believe they will. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Connor Brown, 29. In the last three seasons, he has averaged 64 games, 16-24-40 with various teams. If he plays with McDavid and stays healthy, Brown could make those numbers look silly. He’s good. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Warren Foegele, 27. The youngest of the established wingers by some margin, the threat of a deal as the trade deadline neared lit a fire under Foegele and he turned it on. He finished with 2.09 pts-60 and a 55 percent goal share five-on-five. Music! Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Derek Ryan, 36. He has 23 goals from the depth of the roster over the last two seasons, and a five-on-five goal share of 51 percent in those two years. Those numbers were delivered skating through what used to be Death Valley for this organization. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Raphael Lavoie, 22. Lavoie is listed at right-wing because I think that’s where the action is this fall, but he is best suited to playing his off wing. He had a strong year in the AHL and is looking at fresh blacktop and a real opportunity on the highway ahead. Godspeed young man. Chances of making the team: 85 percent.
Xavier Bourgault, 20. He is a completely different player than the scouting reports. If he can add some offense to his resume, Bourgault is going to play a long time. I’d keep him in Bakersfield until he dominates for two months, and that may not happen this year. Chances of making the team: None.
Seth Griffith, 30.Followed up a brilliant 2021-22 season in Bakersfield with one of struggle. He is reaching the age where good players, and he is one, begin to fade. I don’t see him posting 80 points in the AHL again, and he might not hit 60 this season. Helluva player for a full decade. Chances of making the team: None.
Tyler Tullio, 21. He showed great range as an AHL rookie, and I do think his career trajectory lands him a checking job in the NHL. It’s probably two years away but you never know. Chances of making the team: None.
Jake Chiasson, 20. He arrives with a nice set of tools and a real opportunity, but like Grubbe, his offense will take him to his natural place. He needs to score more often, that’s the bottom line. Chances of making the team: None.
The answer to Ceci is Bouchard who is developing into a top pair dman. Ekholm-Bouchard can run more with McDavid while Nurse-Ceci play with Drai. The lines and dmen can play pretty even minutes with Kulak and the kids getting significant time against middling opposition. Lightening the load on Nurse-Ceci is the way forward.
As for the bottom lines….Janmark-McLeod-Foegele would be fast and very solid defensively. You could put them out against anyone and Woody needs to start doing this in the regular season to get them in playoff shape. Fourth line has lots of options with Holloway, Lavoie, Ryan, Pederson and anyone on a PTO. We have a damn good team if our biggest worry is 4C. That is cheap and easy to fix at the TDL if necessary.
Philly rumors are interesting. Only way it works is if we send Kulak and our #1 pick to Philly for the player with them eating dollars to even out the cap hit. But I’d leave our #1 pick for the TDL when we have better idea of our real needs.
Yeah, I wonder if there is more ‘word’ than the FA list?
It would seem sensible that he wasn’t on that list since he may not have interest in receiving offers to play next season if he has not decided if he wants to play next season.
Spector is certainly of the opinion he will not play though.
Agreed. If Toews decides he is capable of playing and wants to play I don’t think his being left off of a list will have much of anything to do with his chances of getting a contract.
Scungilli Slushy
July 8, 2023 4:54 pm
As many have said, Ceci on first pair is a big problem. I’ll put some data up to see what’s going on
Nurse Ceci is not good. All results are better when they are apart. They did have better numbers the season before with Connor, but the Min played was only 183. Away from Connor they again were under water, and better apart.
Outside of some bad luck with GF% with Nurse and CMD, Bouch is driving everyone’s numbers up. He is the answer to Ceci. He should be signed long term (at the sacrifice of a lesser player or two that aren’t difference makers) and played with Nurse to develop him. He is by far their best RD so use him.
Ceci is also better W/O Nurse so move him down. Even to 3rd pair and let Ek carry Des. Des drove some good numbers I bet it would work. Vet/ Green Banana on each pair. Nurse Bouch, Ek Des, Kulak/Bro Ceci
He ended the segment with a humble brag reminding Stauff that a year ago he said it was a bad signing.
Saskie
July 8, 2023 2:18 pm
I’m looking forward to preseason already. Going to enjoy seeing Lavoy try and make the team, Petrov get a game or two hopefully before he’s sent down, as well as , the bourg and Tullio. Always fun to see these guys perform when trying to make an impression on the big stage. Super curious how Savoy shows in camp. If he can keep up to the big boys this year and stay healthy .
Always take this time of talk with a grain of salt but, when Chaulk was on with Stauffer earlier this week, the one guy they talked about with respect to being “thicker” and whatnot was Savoie – there was a dedicated fitness plan for him this off-season.
I have been immersed in Filip Zadina highlights and DRW watching games from the past 3 seasons for the last several days. This guy is legitimately skilled and plays a (sometimes physical) 2-way game and he is in mostly good positions.
He is smaller than I thought he was, but he is still 6’ and close to 200 lbs. He has an above average ability to knock pucks down and intercept passes.
He also is decent at winning puck battles and he skates very well with good mobility, but doesn’t have the initial acceleration that helps when trying to separate from defenders.
The one thing that really stands out and this is reflected in his shooting percentage; he misses the net. A lot.
He has a wicked wrister, but he needs to hit the damn net with greater frequency. Perhaps better linemates who open up the ice for him and who can get the puck to him when he is in good positions would change his fortunes.
Perhaps a PTO would be the best way to go, rather than an actual contract. That being said I truly believe there is an actual future regular NHL player in there. He is a more substantial player than all of Yakupov, Rattie and Perlini were, but would he actually be given favourable deployment here?
For those interested in the player, here is a good write-up with interesting information:
It sounds like you’re arguing both here? He’s more valuable in the 3rd line role, in part because he isn’t a legitimate top 6 player?
I really disagree with the 2nd part. Sure he’s not a top scorer in the league, but I showed you he was 109th among forwards in overall scoring and 75th in 5v5 scoring during his Ottawa career. He scored as a #3 forward league wide at 5v5 (3 first line forwards x 32 teams) and a #4 forward overall.
Other forwards who scored within +/- five 5v5 points of Brown included: Kuznetsov, Keller, Kopitar, Hertl, Wheeler, Pavelski, Giroux, Eberle, Landeskog, Bergeron, Duchesne, Palat, Killorn, Tatar, Hyman, Rust, Pettersson, Laine, Perron. Kreider and PLD scored 6 fewer points in a few more games.
And his Covid shortened season pro-rated to 30 goals FWIW. Brown is obviously not a pure sniper, but he has been a very legitimate top 6 forward (borderline 1st line forward by scoring). IMO he’s a near perfect addition to the Oilers top 6.
I guess I should started all this with, he hasn’t played NHL hockey in a long time and is recovering from a major injury. Sure, he is a top 100 player circa 2021, but what is he today?
I would like to give a hungry, young talent who has never been given a great shot with top talent over a vet coming off injury who hasn’t played in a year.
Ive read LT’s Athletic article and I know that Zadina got some good minutes with Larkin early in his career and Zadina was a drag. Not sure who else lined up with, but he is a more experienced player today, so he might be ready.
It doesn’t matter, unless Tatar shows up with a league minimum deal, clearly Brown will get the first reps on 97’s RW in camp, unless Lavoie knocks everyone’s socks off….
I really Zadina signs in E-Town, but who knows…. I bet if Phil Kessel (highly unlikely) shows up at Camp he gets reps over Brown, lol.
For sure, fun to speculate. No one claimed him on waivers for $1.825 cap hit x 2, so that’s probably the absolute upper limit of what he could hope for (though actual dollars were higher).
edit-> His next contract is probably one year, I’d imagine.
He could try betting on himself to play here.The risk is that he’d have to win a top six spot on the wing which wouldn’t be easy on this roster.
A team like Anaheim could guarantee a top six spot and power play time.
The one thing that really stands out and this is reflected in his shooting percentage; he misses the net. A lot.
It gets worse… a shot that misses the net isn’t even counted as a shot. It is a shot attempt (corsi) and perhaps also an unblocked shot attempt (fenwick) but unless it hits the net it is not counted as a shot. Therefore, all those missed shot attempts would have no effect on his shooting percentage.
Shooting percentage is goals divided by shots on net.
If he’s missing the net a lot and ALSO sporting a poor SH%, that’s not good news.
it is possible that he can’t produce with top talent, but given his age and ability, it is worth it to try.
Young top 10 picks should never be stapled to the 4th line. Lining Zadina up with numinous talent should open things up and provide him more room to get his above average wrister off in excellent scoring areas.
Last edited 10 months ago by €√¥£€^$
OriginalPouzar
July 8, 2023 11:45 am
I’ve always been against Foegele up in the top 6 (for more than a game here or there) on the premise that “he’s a third line player” and his skill-set is best set up to succeed on the third line.
Well, the results with Leon in 154 minutes are real and they are spectcaulr:
I’ve got time for Foegele at 2RW and Brown at 3RW with McLeod on the premise that (1) Foegele/Drai has a history of success (helping both players last season) and (2) Brown could fit well with McLeod in a tough minutes 3rd line.
OP that’s puck luck to me. Other than GF% the other stats aren’t that different than the ‘without stats’ and some are worse. GF% would regress to the other stat’s levels as the sample grew, it’s the most variable
Foggy doesn’t have top 6 hands nor does he process like a top 6 player as I see it. Or he would have been one by now, he has the wheels and size
Foegele is not a full time top 6er I love the player and the effort but he can’t finish. The way this team is structured you don’t have the luxury of this man’s cap hit. The middle class of Hockey players salary is shrinking as I’m writing this. In other words Foegele’s cap hit and what he brings to the team can be replaced with a million dollar or a PTO. The selection of the large pool of hungry players is going to be interesting league wide.
He’s not great at finishing, this is true. But he creates so many high quality chances for himself that his goal scoring ends up at the low end of 1st line rate at 5v5 despite missing more prime chances than (say) Evander Kane would.
Among forwards with 500+ minutes at 5v5 (basically 12 per team), Foegele was 8th in the league in HDCF/60 and 9th in the league in xG/60. Even with a relatively poor conversion rate he was still 84th in the league for G/60, tied with Panarin.
It’s going to be interesting who gets in the top 6 and grabs the bull by it’s horns. Will it be Holloway, Brown, Foegele are dark horse Lavoie. One of these players will find a niche and score 25. Brown has good hands but he’s kinda like Hyman he creates his own offence. Wouldn’t it be something if Lavoie brings his bully attitude and pops enough to take the heat of Leon.
You say Foegele can be replaced by a $1M player, but that’s simply untrue.
And regarding Hyman – he had more expected goals and high danger changes per sixty than Foegele, but fewer goals per sixty. I guess Hyman isn’t a good enough finisher to be a top-6 player either?
Hyman does the hardest thing in Hockey he scores he’s found his niche in the crease as a vacuum salesman. Hyman kinda reminds me of Glenn Anderson with his Tomfoolery in the crease area. When it comes to Foegele his play kinda resembles Ethan Moreau on the dogged forecheck in the corners and the cycling. Also both players hands belong too the Bricklayers Union.
There might be some puck luck in there, sure, but the underlying stats are generally more favorable for Leon with Foegele than without – not to the 68% but still more favorable. Note the zone stars: Leon with Foegele started almost twice as often in the defensive zone as the offensive zone but Leon without Foegele started more in the offensive zone.
Lets not forget, Foegele had a bad wrist for the last few months of the regular season, took no shots in practice. Still found a way to be over 2 P/60 and almost a goal per 60.
I’m not saying to lock him in with Leon as a pair but that it could be explored and I don’t think Brown should be locked in to to the top 6 and, in fact, wouldn’t mind him with McLeod on a tough minutes line.
Did Brown sign in Edmonton with a possibility that he’s going to be a full pump and dump for the the chance of a huge payday next July 1st. With how aggressive we’ve been offensively on the PK I could see Brown leading the league when it comes to Short-handed Goals.
We can only speculate but Brown got himself a guaranteed $4MM (essentially) and, despite some rumblings, I’m not convinced that AAV for term was out there for him.
He got himself paid and in a place that has the two best offensive centers in the league and zero top 6 right wingers – they are using a preferred LW on the right.
He’s set himself the best he possibly could.
I can’t predict the future but, if he does put up 25G/60P or anything close it likely would require some gymnastics for next season to sign him considering he’ll already be on the books for $3MM (apx).
He’s definitely going to get lots of PK time – as it turns out, only one year with more than 1 SH goal – although it was 5 a few years back.
I don’t think Brown should be locked in to to the top 6 and, in fact, wouldn’t mind him with McLeod on a tough minutes line.
I don’t think there’s going to be a McLeod ‘tough minutes line’ next season.
Woodguy did a nice job of showing McLeod has done well against elites when he’s gotten the chance, and I’m sure he’ll be trusted with more and more responsibility as we go forward.
I can’t imagine it would flip to McLeod being the go-to in the short term though. He’s been super sheltered to this point.
McDavid and Draisaitl play almost identical minutes against elites, and each played more than twice as many elite minutes as McLeod (that was true in both 21-22 and 22-23).
Combining the two seasons, elite TOI/game:
Draisaitl – 5:25
McDavid – 5:22
McLeod – 2:35
Draisaitl also had a weird year at 5v5 (1st PDO under 1010 since 17-18). He had been sawing off or winning his non-McDavid elite minutes prior to this season (and consistently winning his non-McDavid minutes overall). He failed on both counts this past season, though I see no reason he won’t recover.
I definitely do hope and expect that McLeod will be given more of the tough assignments this season though.
Leon seems to have some fairly inconsistent goal share results playing against elites without Connor over the years. A few times just on either side of 50% (like a goal either way), once 6-3 and once 4-10.
I agree that they aren’t just going to flip-flop McLeod/Leon with respect to those tough minutes (and the other coach gets a say too) but I do think it would make sense for McLeod to take a bigger share and for Leon to get a bit more clean air.
I’m not sure how far back you’re going with those goal shares, but they’re going to jump around because of the small samples. Also, McDavid and Draisaitl were underwater away from each other (overall, not specifically vs. elites) a lot in the pre-Holland era.
According to the WoodWOWYs, Draisaitl by year (without McDavid):
9-13
9-8
6-7
6-3
McDavid without Draisaitl:
12-12
12-9
7-8
14-6
McLeod without either:
6-2
4-4
0-1
I’m not there on any McLeod > Draisaitl conclusions, though as I said I fully agree that McLeod should get more of the difficult minutes this coming season.
OriginalPouzar
July 8, 2023 11:30 am
Center:
Yes, Drai had an impact season – tied Kucherov for the 2nd highest point total of the century and its not given enough pen. The goal share away from McDavid WAS a problem and, as LT states, I expect that to be a one-off. He’ll be more “consistently committed”.
McLeod is ready to pop – maybe not numbers wise but impact wise. We are seeing a potential smart move is to use McDavid and McLeod as the two “tough minutes centers” and free up Drai a bit. McLeod has shown to be ready for that role so far.
Pederson at 80% seems high to me. Even if there isn’t another forward signed, that would mean they carry 13 forwards or waive Lavoie – I’m not sure either will happen.
The goal share away from McDavid WAS a problem and, as LT states, I expect that to be a one-off. He’ll be more “consistently committed”.
There’s also a ‘shit happens’ element sometimes.
Draisaitl’s GF% without McDavid was in the black the previous 3 seasons (57%, 58%, 54%).
I don’t think he was less committed last year than the previous ones, and his underlying numbers were not worse.
I fully expect he’ll recover to a ~55% GF% with McDavid off. And yeah, one hell of a season in McDavid’s shadow.
OriginalPouzar
July 8, 2023 11:24 am
Cody Ceci, 29. His offense fell (1-14-15) basically in half year over year, and his goal share at five-on-five (49 percent) was the only one below 50 among the regulars. His expected goal share (51 percent) was more encouraging. Played 16:28 a game at five-on-five in 2022-23, a full minute less than the previous season. That toal could continue to fall if he struggles again. Oilers are hoping his “core” injury, a phrase used to the point of farce with this player (just tell us the issue, please) has healed and he can return to previous levels. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Evan Bouchard, 23. Went 8-32-40 in 82 games, his second 40-point campaign in a row. Expect 50+ next season. Absolute home run season on the way, all of his arrows are headed in a good direction. The contract will be done, it’s a bridge over troubled waters. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
I believe I read/heard the core injury for Ceci was a groin. It may have been Stauffer but, if it wasn’t, it was a similarly reliable “source”.
Presuming healthy, 50 points from Bouch would be a disappointment for my expectations. I think he may be closer to 70 points.
Lets not forget, he is not just a PP specialist. He did struggle to produce in the first half of last season but year prior he was near the top of the d-standings in 5 on 5 points.
If they end up going with Nurse/Bouch – McDavid – he’s going to be firing fast break passes consistently.
————————
As an aside, I was checking in to his PIM spike last season and Hofenmayer had 6 fights last season…..
Yes there was multiple confirmations that Ceci had a groin issue through most of the season and into the playoffs .. hopefully he can get 100 percent for this season and he’s enjoying a good summer .
Hyman had a, confirmed later, hamstring problem come up about 3/4 of the way through the season . They gave him two days off but needed him back to make the run at top dog in the west , but he never could get his speed up again and it also obviously showed in the playoffs… there was lots of talk that Nuge was nursing something upper body, but nothing got confirmed anywhere that I found . Just announcers saying Woody said he’s a bit banged up , but who isn’t in the playoffs .. I think if these three can be healthier come next playoffs and arrive to the playoffs with more in the tank, instead of scrambling all the way to the end to try and win the West, that they will be tougher to beat for sure .. there is always injuries, would be nice if they all weren’t right in the heart of the team ..
OriginalPouzar
July 8, 2023 11:13 am
Philip Broberg, 22. He is ready, his general manager has verbally cleared the track, and all that is left involves deployment by Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. His numbers with fellow lefties are good, his five-on-five possession metrics (53 percent goal share) are rock solid. The only downbeat is time (miniscule) versus elites, and he gets caved there. Small sample, but third pairing RH side with Kulak looks like a no-brainer from here. Chances of making the team: 95 percent.
I think this is right and I presume Manson goes back to Nurse/Ceci and Ek/Bouch to start the season and I’m fine with that. Ceci was consistantly solid in 2021/22 and that pairing, with full health for both, and a 2nd pair more able to help with tough minutes, could excel.
Unless there is an atrocious camp, I will be disappointed in Broberg isn’t in the lineup in a 6D set – play the man his real minutes – he’s proven ready for them and the next step could be real and spectacular.
Nurse Ceci..er…Ceci wasn’t good enough two years in a row. Why wouldn’t one try something different (Nurse Broberg) that might have more upside potential? The best time to try it is start the season, with Ceci as the fallback to get to the trade deadline if Broberg isn’t up to that task, and then make a deal at the deadline.
To win the Cup one has to maximize the potential of the team, and that means taking calculated risks early in the season, not to play it safe.
Why are you against Ceci? It has been mentioned many times he played with a core injury for most of the season. That has to have an effect on any player’s game. Time to give him a chance.
JMO but Ceci is better suited as 2RD even when healthy. Nothing wrong with that and his cap hit is still a bargain if that was where he plays. I am not convinced that Nurse-Ceci is a pairing that allows either player to accentuate their best attributes though. Just the best option from what was available last season.
Fairly early on this coming season I think it is important that the Oiler brain trust sort out their RD situation and decide a couple of things.
Has Bouchard made enough strides defensively that he is a legitimate 1RD? This is important not only for deployment but for long term contract decisions.
Can Broberg play with Ekholm on RD effectively? This is important because Nurse & Ekholm are the top four LD for the next few years & Broberg’s ceiling and role need to be determined. If the team sees him as the 3RD opposite Kulak for the next couple of years I would say they need a different plan.
I like Ceci but this has nothing to do with liking a player. This has to do with making the team the strongest it can be. Nurse-Ceci is not a pairing that ranks high enough league wide for 1st pairing duty if the cup is the objective imo.
The team is strong enough to try these things out for a stretch of games and it is better to find out early than later or not at all.
Nurse/Ceci were 18-14 goals vs. elites last season – with Ceci behind hobbled with a groin injury. They also faced the toughest minutes in the entire league the prior season once Woody was called up and played well. They’ve never been healthy together in the playoffs.
I’m definitely not against Broberg playing the right side in the top 4 – I won’t get in to my preferred pairings and how they differ from yours – I’ve articulated the reasons many times, in detail, for both pairings but never received a substantive retort so I’m not bothering again.
With that said, I’m being realistic on what the coaching staff might do and I think moving Broberg from clear 7D the last time they played a game that counted to top 4 on his off-side then next time they play such a game, is a stretch.
OriginalPouzar
July 8, 2023 11:07 am
Stuart Skinner, 24. Oilers receive a true starting goaltender through the draft once a decade whether they need it or not. Assuming the swarm doesn’t make a comeback (should have called it the swim!), Skinner should be good to start through the end of the decade. It isn’t just the fact he posted a .914 save percentage in 50 games, it was the calm feet and confidence displayed. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Jack Campbell, 31. Fell year over year in save percentage (.914 to .888) but regression is likely (for Campbell and Skinner). Don’t be surprised if he spends part of the 2023-24 season as Edmonton’s starter. One good thing: His equipment shuffling should be solved by now. That was weird. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
I’m not positive that Jack Campbell doesn’t start game 1.
I think almost all posters in this community (with one known exception) reasonably expects a bounce-back for Campbell. I know there are aging curves (which, apparently apply to Oilers players but not to the likes of Anze Kopitar) but last season was such a clear outlier in Campbell’s career and couple that with the history of goalies taking a year to settle in with a new team, I think almost all expect Campbell to be better next season – end stop. Playing well in his brief playoff performances likely helps the confidence and mind-set heading in to the off-season.
Now, of course, that bounce-back could be to .898, .903, .910 or .918 – that story is to be told.
In any event, injuries aside, I think we all would expect both tenders to play many many many games this coming season. Coming in to the season this isn’tp a “starter/back-up” situation but a tandem. I would expect something along the lines of 60/40 through the year but performance will dictate.
I would expect they come in to camp penciling Skinner in as the opening night starter and the guy likely to play 60% of the games but I do think it will be a real competition and “may the better tender win”.
Ryan Fanti, 23. A .929 save percentage for Minnesota-Duluth (NCHC) was followed by a pro debut that fell short of expectations. He played in just 8 AHL games (.884 SP) and will need to show significant improvement this season if he is to have a career in the organization. Chances of making the team: None.
I might suggest that a fight (a beat down at that) and a goal exceeded expectations……
I’m not quite sure that Skinner’s hold on the “starting goaltender position” is quite as strong as the likes of Demko, Sarros, Shesterkin, Sorokin, etc.
I suspect the coaching staff has Skinner penciled in as the opening night starter but are open to analyzing which goalie is performing best leading up to game 1.
I don’t believe Skinner is a locked in start that you think he is.
Charles Nelson Reilly, I always saw him on Match Game, but I had never seen him on any other show, etc. Apparently he was one of the hardest working and beloved actors in Hollywood. But I had no clue who the hell he was.
Paul Lynde was the same, I had only ever seen them on Match Game. After learning more today after you posted this, their careers really took off in the same Broadway production.
OriginalPouzar
July 8, 2023 10:59 am
Most summers, the Riesen to Believe series holds some areas of drama, but this year we’re going to have to resort to borderline nonsense to create roster battles. The Oilers, ladies and gentlemen, are damn close to set.
and this is a good thing, a very good thing!
Victoria Oil
July 8, 2023 10:58 am
I would take the under on the 80% chance of Pederson making the club. But I am considering the possibility of another player being signed. Everything else looks good.
Rondo
July 8, 2023 10:49 am
Million dollars players you pick up in free agency are there for a reason , you never know what’s left in the tank.
Last edited 10 months ago by Rondo
John Chambers
July 8, 2023 10:47 am
Anybody going to Tyson Barrie’s wedding tonight?
McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, and Marner were a foursome at the Victoria golf club yesterday. MacKinnon was wearing pants in +30 weather. Whatta dork.
Wish I knew this yesterday. I live 2 minutes away from that golf club.
defmn
July 8, 2023 10:33 am
Jack Campbell, 31. Don’t be surprised if he spends part of the 2023-24 season as Edmonton’s starter.
=====================
This is exactly what I expect. Campbell’s inconsistency should never have landed him 5 years at $5M but when he is at his best I believe he is a better goalie than Skinner – at least better than Skinner to date; he may well have another gear yet to be shown.
On my list of concerns for this team the goalie tandem is 3rd – below depth and RD. The first 22 players all look capable of delivering a top 8 finish league wide but I don’t see a lot of cover ready to step in should injuries decide to be an issue and RD is still unproven imo.
norm2015
July 8, 2023 10:31 am
Mcdavid plays hockey in Super Saiyan Blue while the rest have ssj1 or maybe 2 lol
The Goku of hockey and idk if he will meet his match. Stay tuned to the next exciting season of
OILERS HOCKEY Z!!!
One thing I didn’t mention is just 43 names. Expect plenty of PTO’s, or at least a couple, and all of the AHL guys. Edmonton isn’t drafting much these years so plenty of TC room.
The question is if they get an established lock to be on the roster guy like Toews or if its another forward that will compete for the last spot.
As of right now, I have Lavoie as 12F (Pederson as 13F).
Toews would knock Lavoie to 13F and, well, that’s not great – obviously he has to play.
They also may only want to carry, or need to carry, 12 forwards – depending on the two remaining RFA contracts and, well, if they spend more than league min on this last forward.
Will be interesting with Lavoie and waivers being a potential real factor.
I know I’ve posted that I think he’d clear, and I stand by that but, of course, its not lock that he’d clear and, even if the org thinks its unlikely, its still a risk and I’m not sure they would want to go there.
The answer to Ceci is Bouchard who is developing into a top pair dman. Ekholm-Bouchard can run more with McDavid while Nurse-Ceci play with Drai. The lines and dmen can play pretty even minutes with Kulak and the kids getting significant time against middling opposition. Lightening the load on Nurse-Ceci is the way forward.
As for the bottom lines….Janmark-McLeod-Foegele would be fast and very solid defensively. You could put them out against anyone and Woody needs to start doing this in the regular season to get them in playoff shape. Fourth line has lots of options with Holloway, Lavoie, Ryan, Pederson and anyone on a PTO. We have a damn good team if our biggest worry is 4C. That is cheap and easy to fix at the TDL if necessary.
Philly rumors are interesting. Only way it works is if we send Kulak and our #1 pick to Philly for the player with them eating dollars to even out the cap hit. But I’d leave our #1 pick for the TDL when we have better idea of our real needs.
West Notes: Toews, Labanc, Myers, Oilers
https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2023/07/west-notes-toews-labanc-myers-oilers.html
Link in there to Spector.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-mailbag-how-concerning-is-the-goaltending-situation/
Yeah, I wonder if there is more ‘word’ than the FA list?
It would seem sensible that he wasn’t on that list since he may not have interest in receiving offers to play next season if he has not decided if he wants to play next season.
Spector is certainly of the opinion he will not play though.
Agreed. If Toews decides he is capable of playing and wants to play I don’t think his being left off of a list will have much of anything to do with his chances of getting a contract.
As many have said, Ceci on first pair is a big problem. I’ll put some data up to see what’s going on
2023 REG SEASON 5v5 All All Scores
Nurse Ceci McD
408 Min CF% 50.19 FF% 50.49 GF% 43.90 xGF% 53.43
W/O Ceci
134 Min CF% 59.78 FF% 58.85 GF% 46.15 xGF% 61.82
W/O Nurse
79 Min CF% 54.84 FF% 53.78 GF% 71.43 xGF% 59.92
W/O CmD
672 Min CF% 50.04 FF% 48.56 GF% 52.83 xGF% 48.42
CmD W/0 Either
685 Min CF% 55.4 FF% 54.5 GF% 60.53 xGF% 58.92
_______
Ekholm Bouch McD
161 Min CF% 60.06 FF% 58.87 GF% 88.24 xGF% 63.33
W/O Ekholm
291 Min CF% 57.95 FF% 57.14 GF% 41.94 xGF% 57.54
W/0 Bouch
15 Min CF% 39.29 FF% 31.58 GF% 100 (1 GF) xGF% .36
W/O CmD
127 Min CF% 57.58 FF% 54.79 GF% 66.67 xGF% 58.43
________
Nurse Bouch CmD
49 Min CF% 63.54 FF% 62.16 GF% 33.33 xGF% 61.10
W/0 Nurse
403 Min CF% 58.12 FF% 57.19 GF% 60 xGF% 59.01
W/O Bouch
494 Min CF% 51.57 FF% 51.66 GF% 45.10 xGF% 54.76
Nurse Ceci is not good. All results are better when they are apart. They did have better numbers the season before with Connor, but the Min played was only 183. Away from Connor they again were under water, and better apart.
Outside of some bad luck with GF% with Nurse and CMD, Bouch is driving everyone’s numbers up. He is the answer to Ceci. He should be signed long term (at the sacrifice of a lesser player or two that aren’t difference makers) and played with Nurse to develop him. He is by far their best RD so use him.
Ceci is also better W/O Nurse so move him down. Even to 3rd pair and let Ek carry Des. Des drove some good numbers I bet it would work. Vet/ Green Banana on each pair. Nurse Bouch, Ek Des, Kulak/Bro Ceci
Why are you using specifically McDavid minutes?
Also, if you trust xGF% then there is literally no problem anywhere.
What did Woodguy say on Stauffer about the Campbell contract?
He ended the segment with a humble brag reminding Stauff that a year ago he said it was a bad signing.
I’m looking forward to preseason already. Going to enjoy seeing Lavoy try and make the team, Petrov get a game or two hopefully before he’s sent down, as well as , the bourg and Tullio. Always fun to see these guys perform when trying to make an impression on the big stage. Super curious how Savoy shows in camp. If he can keep up to the big boys this year and stay healthy .
Always take this time of talk with a grain of salt but, when Chaulk was on with Stauffer earlier this week, the one guy they talked about with respect to being “thicker” and whatnot was Savoie – there was a dedicated fitness plan for him this off-season.
I have been immersed in Filip Zadina highlights and DRW watching games from the past 3 seasons for the last several days. This guy is legitimately skilled and plays a (sometimes physical) 2-way game and he is in mostly good positions.
He is smaller than I thought he was, but he is still 6’ and close to 200 lbs. He has an above average ability to knock pucks down and intercept passes.
He also is decent at winning puck battles and he skates very well with good mobility, but doesn’t have the initial acceleration that helps when trying to separate from defenders.
The one thing that really stands out and this is reflected in his shooting percentage; he misses the net. A lot.
He has a wicked wrister, but he needs to hit the damn net with greater frequency. Perhaps better linemates who open up the ice for him and who can get the puck to him when he is in good positions would change his fortunes.
Perhaps a PTO would be the best way to go, rather than an actual contract. That being said I truly believe there is an actual future regular NHL player in there. He is a more substantial player than all of Yakupov, Rattie and Perlini were, but would he actually be given favourable deployment here?
For those interested in the player, here is a good write-up with interesting information:
https://theleafsnation.com/news/filip-zadina-is-an-interesting-option-but-is-he-a-fit-for-the-maple-leafs
This obsession with Zadina is because I think the missing piece is at 2RW and I think Brown should be 3RW.
Kane-97-Hyman
Nuge-29-Zadina
Foegele-McLeod-Brown
Holloway-Ryan-Janmark
I think the best fit would be Tomas Tatar, but I highly doubt he will sign anywhere for less than $2,000,000.
We will see some interesting PTO’s, I am sure (there could be up to 3 with 43 NHL contacts).
If Holland is still in the market, I think Pius Suter is the best target. Of the other candidates, I can’t see Derek Stepan moving to Western Canada.
Why do you think Brown should be 3RW?
His 3 seasons in Ottawa he scored 191 47-70-117 (an 82 20-30-50 pace) overall and 191 35-49-84 (82 15-21-36)
at 5v5.
He was tied for 109th in overall scoring and tied for 75th in 5v5 scoring (ie – first line or high 2nd line if you look across the league).
For comparison, in Zadina’s last 3 seasons he’s scored 153 19-31-50 all strengths (82 10-17-27) and 153 12-22-34 at 5v5 (82 6-12-18).
I’d be happy to give Zadina a spin to see if he can put it together, I guess I just don’t understand why you and others think Brown is 3RW quality.
As part of a hard-matching 3rd line
Are you saying he’s best suited to 3RW? Or that he so good as a hard-match 3rd line he’s most useful there?
He hasn’t really been a scorer in the NHL, 20 goals 3 seasons ago and 21 goals in his rookie season 7 years ago.
Yup, he was the top scorer in the OHL as a 20 year old 10 years ago, but no history as a top scorer otherwise.
He isn’t getting paid for his offense. If the Oilers don’t bring in any alternatives, he will be in the top 6.
I believe that Brown is more valuable supporting McLeod then he’ll be as a top 6 winger on this team.
It sounds like you’re arguing both here? He’s more valuable in the 3rd line role, in part because he isn’t a legitimate top 6 player?
I really disagree with the 2nd part. Sure he’s not a top scorer in the league, but I showed you he was 109th among forwards in overall scoring and 75th in 5v5 scoring during his Ottawa career. He scored as a #3 forward league wide at 5v5 (3 first line forwards x 32 teams) and a #4 forward overall.
Other forwards who scored within +/- five 5v5 points of Brown included: Kuznetsov, Keller, Kopitar, Hertl, Wheeler, Pavelski, Giroux, Eberle, Landeskog, Bergeron, Duchesne, Palat, Killorn, Tatar, Hyman, Rust, Pettersson, Laine, Perron. Kreider and PLD scored 6 fewer points in a few more games.
And his Covid shortened season pro-rated to 30 goals FWIW. Brown is obviously not a pure sniper, but he has been a very legitimate top 6 forward (borderline 1st line forward by scoring). IMO he’s a near perfect addition to the Oilers top 6.
I guess I should started all this with, he hasn’t played NHL hockey in a long time and is recovering from a major injury. Sure, he is a top 100 player circa 2021, but what is he today?
I would like to give a hungry, young talent who has never been given a great shot with top talent over a vet coming off injury who hasn’t played in a year.
Ive read LT’s Athletic article and I know that Zadina got some good minutes with Larkin early in his career and Zadina was a drag. Not sure who else lined up with, but he is a more experienced player today, so he might be ready.
It doesn’t matter, unless Tatar shows up with a league minimum deal, clearly Brown will get the first reps on 97’s RW in camp, unless Lavoie knocks everyone’s socks off….
I really Zadina signs in E-Town, but who knows…. I bet if Phil Kessel (highly unlikely) shows up at Camp he gets reps over Brown, lol.
Zadina probably didn’t give up $5 million dollars to sign a league min contract and to have a shot at making an NHL team.
I’d imagine he signs with a non-contender with some guarantees on playing time and an NHL top six roster spot.
His father is a coach and he speaks fondly of winning gold medals as part of championship teams in Czechia.
Also the possibility of playing with 29 & 97 and how that could boost his numbers/opportunities, his link to Holland and his link to Lavoie.
He probably doesn’t come here, he probably has 10 or more options, but this is part of the off-season rituals for folks like me.
For sure, fun to speculate. No one claimed him on waivers for $1.825 cap hit x 2, so that’s probably the absolute upper limit of what he could hope for (though actual dollars were higher).
edit-> His next contract is probably one year, I’d imagine.
He could try betting on himself to play here.The risk is that he’d have to win a top six spot on the wing which wouldn’t be easy on this roster.
A team like Anaheim could guarantee a top six spot and power play time.
Keep an eye on Seattle.
They have more than $10 million in cap space once they pare a goalie from the roster with only RFA Vince Dunn to sign.
I doubt Zadina would be a high priority but it seems they’ll be shopping the bargain bin.
Dunn’s going to be expensive. I’m not sure what Evolving Wild has him at, but 64 points and 14 goals, top pairing minutes…
What’s your guess on Dunn’s contract?
$7.5M
I no longer have an active Evolving Wild subscription, but it appears $8.1×8 is their prediction.
Possibly what he wants but I wouldn’t be surprised if Francis holds the line.
All their contracts except Grubauer are relative bargains.
a 4 million dollar 3RW???
It’s not unusual. It’s not like Brown is some kind of NHL sniper.
It gets worse… a shot that misses the net isn’t even counted as a shot. It is a shot attempt (corsi) and perhaps also an unblocked shot attempt (fenwick) but unless it hits the net it is not counted as a shot. Therefore, all those missed shot attempts would have no effect on his shooting percentage.
Shooting percentage is goals divided by shots on net.
If he’s missing the net a lot and ALSO sporting a poor SH%, that’s not good news.
Yes, that is correct.
it is possible that he can’t produce with top talent, but given his age and ability, it is worth it to try.
Young top 10 picks should never be stapled to the 4th line. Lining Zadina up with numinous talent should open things up and provide him more room to get his above average wrister off in excellent scoring areas.
I’ve always been against Foegele up in the top 6 (for more than a game here or there) on the premise that “he’s a third line player” and his skill-set is best set up to succeed on the third line.
Well, the results with Leon in 154 minutes are real and they are spectcaulr:
https://www.naturalstattrick.com/linestats.php?fromseason=20222023&thruseason=20222023&stype=2&sit=5v5&score=all&rate=n&team=EDM&vteam=ALL&view=wowy&loc=B&gpfilt=none&fd=2022-10-07&td=2023-04-14&tgp=2000&strict=incl&p1=8477998&p2=8477934&p3=0&p4=0&p5=0
I’ve got time for Foegele at 2RW and Brown at 3RW with McLeod on the premise that (1) Foegele/Drai has a history of success (helping both players last season) and (2) Brown could fit well with McLeod in a tough minutes 3rd line.
OP that’s puck luck to me. Other than GF% the other stats aren’t that different than the ‘without stats’ and some are worse. GF% would regress to the other stat’s levels as the sample grew, it’s the most variable
Foggy doesn’t have top 6 hands nor does he process like a top 6 player as I see it. Or he would have been one by now, he has the wheels and size
Foegele is not a full time top 6er I love the player and the effort but he can’t finish. The way this team is structured you don’t have the luxury of this man’s cap hit. The middle class of Hockey players salary is shrinking as I’m writing this. In other words Foegele’s cap hit and what he brings to the team can be replaced with a million dollar or a PTO. The selection of the large pool of hungry players is going to be interesting league wide.
He’s not great at finishing, this is true. But he creates so many high quality chances for himself that his goal scoring ends up at the low end of 1st line rate at 5v5 despite missing more prime chances than (say) Evander Kane would.
Among forwards with 500+ minutes at 5v5 (basically 12 per team), Foegele was 8th in the league in HDCF/60 and 9th in the league in xG/60. Even with a relatively poor conversion rate he was still 84th in the league for G/60, tied with Panarin.
It’s going to be interesting who gets in the top 6 and grabs the bull by it’s horns. Will it be Holloway, Brown, Foegele are dark horse Lavoie. One of these players will find a niche and score 25. Brown has good hands but he’s kinda like Hyman he creates his own offence. Wouldn’t it be something if Lavoie brings his bully attitude and pops enough to take the heat of Leon.
You say Foegele can be replaced by a $1M player, but that’s simply untrue.
And regarding Hyman – he had more expected goals and high danger changes per sixty than Foegele, but fewer goals per sixty. I guess Hyman isn’t a good enough finisher to be a top-6 player either?
Hyman does the hardest thing in Hockey he scores he’s found his niche in the crease as a vacuum salesman. Hyman kinda reminds me of Glenn Anderson with his Tomfoolery in the crease area. When it comes to Foegele his play kinda resembles Ethan Moreau on the dogged forecheck in the corners and the cycling. Also both players hands belong too the Bricklayers Union.
This from the guy who says the Oilers fully owned their GF% against Vegas? No bad luck there, but if it falls on the good side you’ll argue it away?
There might be some puck luck in there, sure, but the underlying stats are generally more favorable for Leon with Foegele than without – not to the 68% but still more favorable. Note the zone stars: Leon with Foegele started almost twice as often in the defensive zone as the offensive zone but Leon without Foegele started more in the offensive zone.
Lets not forget, Foegele had a bad wrist for the last few months of the regular season, took no shots in practice. Still found a way to be over 2 P/60 and almost a goal per 60.
I’m not saying to lock him in with Leon as a pair but that it could be explored and I don’t think Brown should be locked in to to the top 6 and, in fact, wouldn’t mind him with McLeod on a tough minutes line.
Did Brown sign in Edmonton with a possibility that he’s going to be a full pump and dump for the the chance of a huge payday next July 1st. With how aggressive we’ve been offensively on the PK I could see Brown leading the league when it comes to Short-handed Goals.
We can only speculate but Brown got himself a guaranteed $4MM (essentially) and, despite some rumblings, I’m not convinced that AAV for term was out there for him.
He got himself paid and in a place that has the two best offensive centers in the league and zero top 6 right wingers – they are using a preferred LW on the right.
He’s set himself the best he possibly could.
I can’t predict the future but, if he does put up 25G/60P or anything close it likely would require some gymnastics for next season to sign him considering he’ll already be on the books for $3MM (apx).
He’s definitely going to get lots of PK time – as it turns out, only one year with more than 1 SH goal – although it was 5 a few years back.
I don’t think there’s going to be a McLeod ‘tough minutes line’ next season.
Woodguy did a nice job of showing McLeod has done well against elites when he’s gotten the chance, and I’m sure he’ll be trusted with more and more responsibility as we go forward.
I can’t imagine it would flip to McLeod being the go-to in the short term though. He’s been super sheltered to this point.
McDavid and Draisaitl play almost identical minutes against elites, and each played more than twice as many elite minutes as McLeod (that was true in both 21-22 and 22-23).
Combining the two seasons, elite TOI/game:
Draisaitl – 5:25
McDavid – 5:22
McLeod – 2:35
Draisaitl also had a weird year at 5v5 (1st PDO under 1010 since 17-18). He had been sawing off or winning his non-McDavid elite minutes prior to this season (and consistently winning his non-McDavid minutes overall). He failed on both counts this past season, though I see no reason he won’t recover.
I definitely do hope and expect that McLeod will be given more of the tough assignments this season though.
Leon seems to have some fairly inconsistent goal share results playing against elites without Connor over the years. A few times just on either side of 50% (like a goal either way), once 6-3 and once 4-10.
I agree that they aren’t just going to flip-flop McLeod/Leon with respect to those tough minutes (and the other coach gets a say too) but I do think it would make sense for McLeod to take a bigger share and for Leon to get a bit more clean air.
I’m not sure how far back you’re going with those goal shares, but they’re going to jump around because of the small samples. Also, McDavid and Draisaitl were underwater away from each other (overall, not specifically vs. elites) a lot in the pre-Holland era.
According to the WoodWOWYs, Draisaitl by year (without McDavid):
9-13
9-8
6-7
6-3
McDavid without Draisaitl:
12-12
12-9
7-8
14-6
McLeod without either:
6-2
4-4
0-1
I’m not there on any McLeod > Draisaitl conclusions, though as I said I fully agree that McLeod should get more of the difficult minutes this coming season.
Center:
Yes, Drai had an impact season – tied Kucherov for the 2nd highest point total of the century and its not given enough pen. The goal share away from McDavid WAS a problem and, as LT states, I expect that to be a one-off. He’ll be more “consistently committed”.
McLeod is ready to pop – maybe not numbers wise but impact wise. We are seeing a potential smart move is to use McDavid and McLeod as the two “tough minutes centers” and free up Drai a bit. McLeod has shown to be ready for that role so far.
Pederson at 80% seems high to me. Even if there isn’t another forward signed, that would mean they carry 13 forwards or waive Lavoie – I’m not sure either will happen.
Injuries of course….
There’s also a ‘shit happens’ element sometimes.
Draisaitl’s GF% without McDavid was in the black the previous 3 seasons (57%, 58%, 54%).
I don’t think he was less committed last year than the previous ones, and his underlying numbers were not worse.
I fully expect he’ll recover to a ~55% GF% with McDavid off. And yeah, one hell of a season in McDavid’s shadow.
I believe I read/heard the core injury for Ceci was a groin. It may have been Stauffer but, if it wasn’t, it was a similarly reliable “source”.
Presuming healthy, 50 points from Bouch would be a disappointment for my expectations. I think he may be closer to 70 points.
Lets not forget, he is not just a PP specialist. He did struggle to produce in the first half of last season but year prior he was near the top of the d-standings in 5 on 5 points.
If they end up going with Nurse/Bouch – McDavid – he’s going to be firing fast break passes consistently.
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As an aside, I was checking in to his PIM spike last season and Hofenmayer had 6 fights last season…..
Yes there was multiple confirmations that Ceci had a groin issue through most of the season and into the playoffs .. hopefully he can get 100 percent for this season and he’s enjoying a good summer .
Hyman had a, confirmed later, hamstring problem come up about 3/4 of the way through the season . They gave him two days off but needed him back to make the run at top dog in the west , but he never could get his speed up again and it also obviously showed in the playoffs… there was lots of talk that Nuge was nursing something upper body, but nothing got confirmed anywhere that I found . Just announcers saying Woody said he’s a bit banged up , but who isn’t in the playoffs .. I think if these three can be healthier come next playoffs and arrive to the playoffs with more in the tank, instead of scrambling all the way to the end to try and win the West, that they will be tougher to beat for sure .. there is always injuries, would be nice if they all weren’t right in the heart of the team ..
I think this is right and I presume Manson goes back to Nurse/Ceci and Ek/Bouch to start the season and I’m fine with that. Ceci was consistantly solid in 2021/22 and that pairing, with full health for both, and a 2nd pair more able to help with tough minutes, could excel.
Unless there is an atrocious camp, I will be disappointed in Broberg isn’t in the lineup in a 6D set – play the man his real minutes – he’s proven ready for them and the next step could be real and spectacular.
Nurse Ceci..er…Ceci wasn’t good enough two years in a row. Why wouldn’t one try something different (Nurse Broberg) that might have more upside potential? The best time to try it is start the season, with Ceci as the fallback to get to the trade deadline if Broberg isn’t up to that task, and then make a deal at the deadline.
To win the Cup one has to maximize the potential of the team, and that means taking calculated risks early in the season, not to play it safe.
Why are you against Ceci? It has been mentioned many times he played with a core injury for most of the season. That has to have an effect on any player’s game. Time to give him a chance.
JMO but Ceci is better suited as 2RD even when healthy. Nothing wrong with that and his cap hit is still a bargain if that was where he plays. I am not convinced that Nurse-Ceci is a pairing that allows either player to accentuate their best attributes though. Just the best option from what was available last season.
Fairly early on this coming season I think it is important that the Oiler brain trust sort out their RD situation and decide a couple of things.
Has Bouchard made enough strides defensively that he is a legitimate 1RD? This is important not only for deployment but for long term contract decisions.
Can Broberg play with Ekholm on RD effectively? This is important because Nurse & Ekholm are the top four LD for the next few years & Broberg’s ceiling and role need to be determined. If the team sees him as the 3RD opposite Kulak for the next couple of years I would say they need a different plan.
I like Ceci but this has nothing to do with liking a player. This has to do with making the team the strongest it can be. Nurse-Ceci is not a pairing that ranks high enough league wide for 1st pairing duty if the cup is the objective imo.
The team is strong enough to try these things out for a stretch of games and it is better to find out early than later or not at all.
Wouldn’t that apply to McDavid, Draisaitl and every other Oiler who was on the team both years as well?
Nurse/Ceci were 18-14 goals vs. elites last season – with Ceci behind hobbled with a groin injury. They also faced the toughest minutes in the entire league the prior season once Woody was called up and played well. They’ve never been healthy together in the playoffs.
I’m definitely not against Broberg playing the right side in the top 4 – I won’t get in to my preferred pairings and how they differ from yours – I’ve articulated the reasons many times, in detail, for both pairings but never received a substantive retort so I’m not bothering again.
With that said, I’m being realistic on what the coaching staff might do and I think moving Broberg from clear 7D the last time they played a game that counted to top 4 on his off-side then next time they play such a game, is a stretch.
I’m not positive that Jack Campbell doesn’t start game 1.
I think almost all posters in this community (with one known exception) reasonably expects a bounce-back for Campbell. I know there are aging curves (which, apparently apply to Oilers players but not to the likes of Anze Kopitar) but last season was such a clear outlier in Campbell’s career and couple that with the history of goalies taking a year to settle in with a new team, I think almost all expect Campbell to be better next season – end stop. Playing well in his brief playoff performances likely helps the confidence and mind-set heading in to the off-season.
Now, of course, that bounce-back could be to .898, .903, .910 or .918 – that story is to be told.
In any event, injuries aside, I think we all would expect both tenders to play many many many games this coming season. Coming in to the season this isn’tp a “starter/back-up” situation but a tandem. I would expect something along the lines of 60/40 through the year but performance will dictate.
I would expect they come in to camp penciling Skinner in as the opening night starter and the guy likely to play 60% of the games but I do think it will be a real competition and “may the better tender win”.
I might suggest that a fight (a beat down at that) and a goal exceeded expectations……
How many starting goaltenders lose their starting job during training camp, if they are coming off of a season in which they improved?
I’m not quite sure that Skinner’s hold on the “starting goaltender position” is quite as strong as the likes of Demko, Sarros, Shesterkin, Sorokin, etc.
My point is that that is likely to be decided by regular season play, not preseason play.
How many starting goaltenders lose their job in training camp coming off of a career year?
I suspect the coaching staff has Skinner penciled in as the opening night starter but are open to analyzing which goalie is performing best leading up to game 1.
I don’t believe Skinner is a locked in start that you think he is.
“If AI wants to take over the world, start by inventing one word that describes McDavid. I have transcendent already. Give me a better one.”
How about numinous?
Coruscating.
Nice option!
I wonder if Numenius has any thoughts on this.
Scrumtrilescent.
Charles Nelson Reilly, I always saw him on Match Game, but I had never seen him on any other show, etc. Apparently he was one of the hardest working and beloved actors in Hollywood. But I had no clue who the hell he was.
Paul Lynde was the same, I had only ever seen them on Match Game. After learning more today after you posted this, their careers really took off in the same Broadway production.
and this is a good thing, a very good thing!
I would take the under on the 80% chance of Pederson making the club. But I am considering the possibility of another player being signed. Everything else looks good.
Million dollars players you pick up in free agency are there for a reason , you never know what’s left in the tank.
Anybody going to Tyson Barrie’s wedding tonight?
McDavid, MacKinnon, Crosby, and Marner were a foursome at the Victoria golf club yesterday. MacKinnon was wearing pants in +30 weather. Whatta dork.
Needless to say Victoria Tinder is buzzzin’
Wish I knew this yesterday. I live 2 minutes away from that golf club.
Jack Campbell, 31. Don’t be surprised if he spends part of the 2023-24 season as Edmonton’s starter.
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This is exactly what I expect. Campbell’s inconsistency should never have landed him 5 years at $5M but when he is at his best I believe he is a better goalie than Skinner – at least better than Skinner to date; he may well have another gear yet to be shown.
On my list of concerns for this team the goalie tandem is 3rd – below depth and RD. The first 22 players all look capable of delivering a top 8 finish league wide but I don’t see a lot of cover ready to step in should injuries decide to be an issue and RD is still unproven imo.
Mcdavid plays hockey in Super Saiyan Blue while the rest have ssj1 or maybe 2 lol
The Goku of hockey and idk if he will meet his match. Stay tuned to the next exciting season of
OILERS HOCKEY Z!!!
One thing I didn’t mention is just 43 names. Expect plenty of PTO’s, or at least a couple, and all of the AHL guys. Edmonton isn’t drafting much these years so plenty of TC room.
Would you care to take a guess how likely it is that one or more forwards gets signed before opening night?
I’d put the chances quite high myself (80-90%?), but mine is just one opinion.
I agree that its highly likely.
The question is if they get an established lock to be on the roster guy like Toews or if its another forward that will compete for the last spot.
As of right now, I have Lavoie as 12F (Pederson as 13F).
Toews would knock Lavoie to 13F and, well, that’s not great – obviously he has to play.
They also may only want to carry, or need to carry, 12 forwards – depending on the two remaining RFA contracts and, well, if they spend more than league min on this last forward.
Will be interesting with Lavoie and waivers being a potential real factor.
I know I’ve posted that I think he’d clear, and I stand by that but, of course, its not lock that he’d clear and, even if the org thinks its unlikely, its still a risk and I’m not sure they would want to go there.