Colin Chaulk was head coach for the Bakersfield Condors game on February 11, 2022. Bakersfield won 3-2, Raphael Lavoie scored the winner and was first star of the game. Chaulk and his staff have one main responsibility: Develop hockey players for the NHL Oilers. It’s difficult to credit a new coach who arrives mid-season, the names you see on this game sheet are mostly Jay Woodcroft’s group. Is Colin Chaulk developing NHL talent?
New for @TheAthleticNHL There are eight players who won't cost the moon, provide skills the Oilers need, and can be fit under the salary cap. Here they are. https://t.co/7gS5QY5G1s
DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 2.0: Evan Bouchard offer sheet? Klim Kostin to KHL?
DNB: Oilers’ offseason options: Comparing conservative and aggressive approaches
Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers targets early and late in NHL free agency.
COLIN CHAULK
What do you think of Chaulk’s first full season? There are some good developments, and the Oilers used some of the available talent at the deadline in shoring up the big club. There are also things to work on.
Where would you like to start? Let’s start with the positive. The two best forwards on the team in 2022-23 were prospects (Raphael Lavoie and Noah Philp). That’s a positive.
And? Several kids who had been in the system for some time (Mike Kesselring, Olivier Rodrigue, Phil Kemp) took steps forward. It was go time in some cases, and they stepped up. Most of the credit goes to the player, but the coaching staff earns some praise as well.
Anything else? I thought two rookie wingers, Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio, showed well in even strength outscoring. A little shy offensively, and that segues nicely to the things we can be critical of in regard to coach Chaulk.
What’s the problem? The top right-winger in estimated TOI at even strength (Seth Griffith) had a 46 percent goal share (46-54) during the regular season. Josh Bailey, another regular who played both wings, was also at 46 percent. Meanwhile, the kids Bourgault (60 percent) and Tullio (54 percent) were winning the goal share. I get the toughest competition goes to the veterans, but the other veterans didn’t score at a 46 percent rate. Brad Malone (57 percent), Luke Esposito (57 percent) and other veterans were well past 50 percent. Even Greg McKegg, who had a horrible start to the year, finished 52 percent goal share at even strength.
What’s the problem? Eric Rodgers’ estimates have Griffith (17:24) playing enormous minutes. Josh Bailey (13:28) is second, but not that far ahead of Bourgault (12:50) and Tullio (11:15). I think Chaulk would have been wise to increase the playing time of the youngsters.
Maybe he did during the season? Bourgault’s estimated ice time was 12:21 at even strength on January 15. Small increase despite great outscoring results.
Maybe Griffith was filling the net? Filling the net at both ends is not effective. For the record, the estimated even strength pts-60 for the season had Griffith (1.63), Bailey (1.56), Tullio (1.78) and Bourgault (1.33). None in the group was clear of the others, but Tullio had great outscoring metrics and was the most productive based on estimates. I would have liked to see him more.
Does it match the eye test? Yes, for sure in the case of Tullio. He spent long periods playing depth roles.
Okay, what prospect took a step back last season? More than one? Carter Savoie had an estimated pts-60 of 1.08 at even strength and was outscored 9-14. He did score .68 goals-60 estimated, that’s a promising number from such a confusing season. That isn’t a step back so much as a failure to step due to injury.
Anyone else? Not among the prospects, not really. The struggling players, to my eye, were Griffith, Jason Demers, Yanni Kaldis (he had some injury issues but was 11-20 even-strength goals), and James Hamblin who took a step back.
Is there anyone you think negatively impacted their career? Was it Chaulk’s fault? Tyler Benson. Not Chaulk’s fault.
Care to expand on this? I think Benson let go the rope this year. He played 29 NHL games in 2021-22, just two this past season, and I do think when he was in Bakersfield the results were impacted. By year, his points-per-game in the AHL: .97; .77; 1.00; .67 and this season .53. I think he needs a second opinion and will get it this winter. I wish him the best.
What was Benson’s estimated even-strength points-60? In 2022-23, Benson posted a 0.95 estimated pts-60. In his rookie season, 2016-17, that number was 2.22 pts-60. In 2020-21, it was 2.18. That’s a very productive AHL winger.
Who did Chaulk help? We can start with his challenging of Raphael Lavoie, who was a healthy scratch on December 3. After that date, Lavoie scored 23-19-42 in 49 games. He spent time tearing up the black top, but also played a more complete game, kept his feet moving and pushing his way into successful situations. He had a strong finish, the most impressive by a big Oilers forward in the AHL in many years.
When was the last time you saw it? Jujhar Khaira went 4-9-13 in 13 games starting January 8, 2016. Won an NHL job the next season.
Anyone else he helped? The coaching staff helped Olivier Rodrigue, he looks back on the straight and narrow after some time spent wandering. I don’t know how much credit Chaulk gets for it, but this did occur on his watch.
Anyone else else? I’ll mention Mike Kesselring, who was placed in an ideal situation and ran with it; Phil Kemp, who was thrust into a bigger role and delivered; and AHL contract Dino Kambeitz who is a personal favourite.
Anyone the coach was slow to recognize? Tyler Tullio, Noah Philp, those are the two main ones.
But he figured it out? Yes, once Philp arrived at center things went very well. And Tullio just kept being so damned useful.
How many future NHLers has Chaulk helped? We’ll see. I think Lavoie is NHL-ready, Bourgault and Tullio have a chance and Savoie has the single most important hockey skill on the planet. There’s plenty to work with here.
What grade do you give Chaulk? I think a B is fair. He helped most of the real prospects, but Bourgault didn’t get the feature minutes it looks like he earned and the coach relied too much on veterans like Griffith and Demers. Even when those vets struggled, he stayed the course, despite younger players showing they were ready for the test. That’s my read on things.
Who are the major rookies this year coming to Bakersfield? Well, Max Wanner and Jayden Grubbe are both compelling, but for me it’s Matvey Petrov. He’s either the most talented player in the system or damn close. Jake Chiasson will also make his pro debut, not sure he is compelling as a prospect. Seems a little shy, we’ll see.
Will the team be better in 2023-24? Yes. Ken Holland signed defensemen Noel Hoefenmayer and Ben Gleason to shore up an area of need. Lane Pederson will take on the 1C duties when in Bakersfield, allowing James Hamblin to slide down to a depth role or move to the wing. Drake Caggiula can replace Seth Griffith if it comes to it.
Who are the most likely recalls this season? Assuming Raphael Lavoie and Lane Pederson start the season in the NHL, I’ll say all of Markus Niemelainen, Ben Gleason, Noel Hoefenmayer, Phil Kemp, Cam Dineen, Calvin Pickard, Olivier Rodrigue, Drake Caggiula, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Carter Savoie, James Hamblin and Brad Malone could get the call. The Condors are a mature team, the wins should come.
Would you sign Filip Zadina? To a league minimum deal, you bet. However, he’d have to accept a trip to Bakersfield and the reason you sign him is for his possession numbers. He has been in the NHL for some time and the offense never arrived.
Filip Zadina has always been an intriguing player for me since before his draft. Size, speed, shot and I always wondered why he couldn’t gain traction on a very below average team. Since his 2018 draft where he was the 6th pick, the Wings have had the 6th, 4th, 6th, 8th & 9th overall picks. Is it really all on the player? Or is the organization simply horrible at supporting their prospects somewhere along the way? Seider was their first home run pick since Larkin in 2014 and Larkin basically hit the ground running after spending 1 year at Michigan and Seider spent 1 year in the AHL and then went to the SHL and then arrived fully formed as a top pairing defender, but they have mostly whiffed on their 1st and 2nd round picks over the past 10 seasons.
Regardless of his Motown time, Zadina has some interesting metrics. This took a minute, but I thought I would show his last 2 seasons, since he spent most of 22-23 on IR and compare his previous years’ results with names that have been discussed a lot this offseason.
In order to try to line things up as best as possible I used some unfamiliar abbreviations and am doing this on Word, so I could hopefully keep the mistakes to a minimum. Taken from PuckIQ, vsE is percentage of time vs Elites. I also took TOZ% from PuckIQ, Total OZ start percentage, because this gives more context to the overall results. The rest should be straightforward, but if anyone needs clarity, please let me know. Hopefully someone finds this info interesting. The rest I took from Natural Stat Trick, I hope this is not too busy or confusing.
I absolutely would love to see how he rolls with 97 or 29. I suspect that he would be a slight upgrade over Ty Rattie or Brandon Perlini….. Sign him up Kenny!
Player GP vsE TOZ% G/60 Sh% CF/CA/60rel FF/FA/60 HDCF/HDCA/60rel PDO IPP
also: One of the best in the draft at winning body positioning and securing possession along the end boards, but undoes all that by throwing the puck away immediately after. That’s something that normally improves with time. Still, breakouts in general are a development key for him.
Bulging Twine
July 7, 2023 8:02 pm
Logged in just to boost this:
“Chaulk and his staff have one main responsibility: Develop hockey players for the NHL Oilers.”
Super duper important that this is clear to Chaulk and Gretzky!
Of course, that includes putting players in positions to succeed and often that coincides with higher the “known names” having to work their way up the lineup and in to higher leverage situations – seems to have worked last season with the likes of Tulio, Philp, Lavoie, etc.
brobergstan
July 7, 2023 4:12 pm
I have posted some of this below but i did a deep dive into mr foegele who is a bum and should be traded for sacks of cheese and a roll of half used hockey pucks to make cap space.
He had elite defensive metrics in the playoffs with ryan and ryan. and below is the real kicker.
this is LW with over 500 mins of ice time 5v5.
Mr Foegele represents #23 on the list.
His 2.09 points per 60 at 5v5 scoring rate is even more impressive if you compare with all fowards over the whole season.
His was the same as john tavares.
his totals are better than notable names such as.
brad marchand (top line winger on almost any team)
nazem kadri (7 mil player)
nick suzuki (oooo franchise center)
kyle connor (elite sharpshooter and top line player)
trevor zegras (BUT OILERS SHOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM INSTEAD OF BROBERG)
andre burakovsky (5.5mil astute signing by seattle)
vladamir tarasenko (rumored to want at least 5mil on his next contract)
bo horvat (great 1c getting over 8million according to hockey man lou)
Val nichushkin (amazing hockey player signed by elite gm sakic)
Sam Bennett (fantastic rugged 2 way top 6 player who played 1c in the playoffs)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (5.4 mil aav contract)
Jonny Gaudreau (one of the best playmakers in the nhl according to some)
Mark Schiefele. (considered a 1c by almost everyone in the league)
Ivan Barbashev (worth almost 5 mil a yr)
Timo Meier (worth over 8 mil apparantly)
Johnathan Marchessault (conn smyth winner)
By the same token, who were their linemates? Marchand, for instance, played with Bergeron and Pastrnak much of the season. That’s a massive upgrade on Foegele’s most common linemates.
As has been mentioned here a lot, P/60 can be misleading. It averages for TOI, but if you aren’t getting TOI there’s a reason. NST All Scores Reg Season:
Foegele 2.09 P/60 – 12.7 min TOI/G All strengths
Marchand 2.08 P/60 18.5 min TOI/G All strengths
Marchand also coming off a major surgery. Foegele did well in his role for sure. But it’s a bottom 6 role. Also, do the Oilers ever over play Connor and Leon
His 2.09 points per 60 at 5v5 scoring rate is even more impressive if you compare with all fowards over the whole season.
I’m a big points/60 guy after reading this blog for over a decade. Some like GeorgeXS have made compelling arguments against it.
Still.
You can’t fairly compare points/60 for a guy playing 3rd line comp and 11 and a half minutes (3rd line minutes) per game to guys playing top line minutes/comp on other teams.
There’s a myriad of examples that you can pull that will lead you to the wrong conclusion about whether player A or B is better than the other if you’re going to compare players based upon points per sixty when player A plays top line comp and minutes and player B plays 3rd line minutes and comp.
Coaches vote with their minutes. Foegele was 8th in toi/60 at 5v5. Now either you think Woodcroft is a fair and accurate judge of talent or you don’t.
jp
July 7, 2023 1:50 pm
With Bellemare gone to Seattle, here is my list of remaining potential 4C additions.
Listed is each players age, position, GP G-A-TP TOI and FO%:
J. Toews ——- 35 LC 53 15-16-31 17:42 63.1%
D. Grant ——- 33 LC 46 5–13-18 14:50 55.2% T. Nosek ——- 31 LC 66 7-11-18 12:33 59.3%
P. Suter ——– 27 LC 79 14-10-24 14:03 46.8% P. Stastny —– 37 LC 73 9–13-22 11:52 57.6% E. Staal ——– 38 LC 72 14-15-29 14:14 46.2% C. White ——- 26 RC 68 8–7–15 9:38 43.1% (46.5% in OTT) D. Stepan —– 33 RC 73 5–6–11 9:04 54.0%
D. Brassard — 35 LC 62 13-10-23 12:10 50.0% JJ. Khaira —– 29 LC 51 6–8–14 13:52 48.4%
O. Sundqvist – 29 RW 68 10-18-28 13:52 42.9% (44.3% in STL) C. Tierny ——- 29 LC 36 3–7–19 10:51 47.0%
It’s ordered roughly by my preference as best fit, but there’s lots I don’t know.
I’m not adverse to that set-up but my main concern is getting enough 5 on 5 minutes for McLeod and, actually, as Woodguy has shown us, it might be prudent to make him the 2nd “tough minutes center” along with McDavid – he’s had much success against elites, and Drai has, well not.
Also, I know Nuge made hay on the PP but he was also very productive at 5 on 5 – he was 52nd in the league in 5 on 5 scoring – firmly first line production – ahead of many forwards one would think of as high end offensive producers.
Yeah, there’s an argument for using the 4 centers at their natural positions. I wouldn’t be opposed (nor would I prefer it), but I don’t think we’ll see it.
Also, you’ve said elsewhere that you think there’s a 10% chance that Toews signs a cheap deal with the Oilers. Do you really think they’re waiting for him on a 1 in 10 chance he signs?
Any signing at this point is going to be between $775k and $1.0M. At worst it’s $200k-ish above the incumbent (Lavoie/Pederson at of now).
If there’s a guy they think can legitimately help the team who’d cost $200k more than that I’d guess they sign that contract and risk the $200k consequences with Bouchard.
That’s my thought on the chances of all the necessary thresholds being passed (ready and able, wiling to play for Edmonton, accepting of a the required cheap contract).
We know the Oilers are in contact with him and they would have a much better indication – if two and three are locks and they are just waiting for him to determine, ya, I think they might wait.
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is joining the #SeaKraken on a one-year deal worth $775,000.
OriginalPouzar
July 7, 2023 1:30 pm
Colin Chaulk was on Oilers Now yesterday and always love listening to the spots of the AHL coach. There are always little nuggets of interest. A few things:
1) not that it really matters but, they were talking about Philp’s development last season and when he was struggling early and flopping between wing and center, one thing Chaulk mentioned is that he was struggling with the speed of processing breakouts as the low forward and making the right decisions. Philp spent a ton of time with video in that area and developed. Its neither here nor there now but I find little technical nuggets like this interesting as I don’t have the ability to to analyze those technical nuances generally.
2) Savoie is the one player that is noticeably “thicker” than last season. He was given advise and programs by the Condors and Oilers and has been working hard.
3) Noah H. asked to come to development camp – to get familiarized with the org, etc. I like that. Also, he was Vinny D’s d-partner in Wichita a few year’s back.
Pretendergast
July 7, 2023 11:38 am
I think the kids were handled well. More opportunity may have been warranted but I would say the mediocre offence from the kids didn’t warrant the promotion. Griffith may have been underwater but Holland’s entire MO is to not give more to the prospects than they can handle. The tradeoff likely being allowing Griffith to handle the tougher minutes and lose at the benefit of the kids not potentially going underwater in the same minutes.
We’ve asked for this for exactly one forever, many articles on this blog referencing it. We get it and now we’re not promoting the kids fast enough? I get auditioning higher up the order based on quality available but I would be on the side of ‘are you dominating the minutes you’re given’. By the numbers, the kids who can be considered prospects didn’t do that. They were fine and improved but specifically with Borgault was not dominating ala a Bouchard or Holloway or Yamamoto in their stints to be given high end minutes.
I expect a Mcleod timeline for Borgault and that is perfectly reasonable for his draft position. If not, just like credit of success goes mostly to the player, so does failure (injury aside).
So, you expect a mid-season call-up for Bourgault this season? Npt sure I expect to see it but its definitely not out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
I believe it was in his second pro season that McLeod was PPG as part of the most dominant line in the AHL (with Marody and Benson) – that line was never in the defensive zone, they had the puck ALL THE TIME.
Bourgault should certainly have some good player to play with – heck he might play with Pederson and Caggiula, right?
Yes, I expect him to earn the recall and get a 10 game cup of coffee next year as Mcleod did. Offence once up is negligible (Cloud 1 assist in audition), earning a call-up is a reasonable goal for him this season. I expect the envelope to be pushed.
As you have said many times, the move from CHL to AHL is much bigger than most think. He stayed about as healthy as can be hoped for and was adequate not dominant in those minutes. It is reasonable to think a player with his history of offence will see an uptick now that he should be ‘comfortable’ at this level.
Yamamoto has missed his last wide open net in Edmonton. They should of kept Chaisson at least he had hands and covered his bet on his cap unlike Yamamoto.
Lots of us (including myself) were all over Chaulk early in the season for not playing the kids. Every single one of them but Bourgault was healthy scratched at some point in the first few months of the season: Tulio, Savoie, Philp, Lavoie, etc.
As it turns out, I think Chaulk ended up doing a bang-up job with these kids. Most of them (save Savoie) really developed through the season and had great second halfs.
Tulio was playing some top line and PP1 in the 2nd half – he had a couple of heaters.
Philp went from after-thought to 1C by the end of the season and legit NHL prospect.
Lavoie we’ve talked about.
————————-
Will be interesting to see how Chaulk runs it this year.
You’ve got the “real prospects” now in to their 2nd/3rd years (Tulio, Lavoie, Savoie).
You’ve got the older prospect with a chance to play some NHL games (Kemp, Niemo)
You’ve got the new rookies: Chiasson, Petrov, Grubbe, Wanner
You’ve got the core vets: Malone, Esposito (along with guys like McKegg)
You’ve got the younger tweener vets: Cagguila, Pederson, Noah H. and Gleason).
Ooops – thank you. I may have done that a few times.
There is a small chance I may not have got over the loss of Philp…..
Last edited 9 months ago by OriginalPouzar
OriginalPouzar
July 7, 2023 11:04 am
Is there anyone you think negatively impacted their career? Was it Chaulk’s fault? Tyler Benson. Not Chaulk’s fault.
Care to expand on this? I think Benson let go the rope this year. He played 29 NHL games in 2021-22, just two this past season, and I do think when he was in Bakersfield the results were impacted. By year, his points-per-game in the AHL: .97; .77; 1.00; .67 and this season .53. I think he needs a second opinion and will get it this winter. I wish him the best.
Benson was not the same player in the AHL this past season – he was simply not a dynamic offensive player, which he had been throughout his AHL career.
Remember his “reinventing his game” at the NHL level, becoming more of an agitator/pest, to try and find a role. Well it seemed to took that new style of game to the AHL this past season.
I wonder what type of contract he gets this coming season. Does some team sign him to an NHL deal (2-way) or does he have to take an AHL contract? I don’t see him going to Europe.
Benson was having a pretty decent pre-season before getting injured. I think that injury took the wind out of his sails and demoralized him.
OriginalPouzar
July 7, 2023 10:59 am
Who did Chaulk help? We can start with his challenging of Raphael Lavoie, who was a healthy scratch on December 3. After that date, Lavoie scored 23-19-42 in 49 games. He spent time tearing up the black top, but also played a more complete game, kept his feet moving and pushing his way into successful situations. He had a strong finish, the most impressive by a big Oilers forward in the AHL in many years.
I was reading through and waiting for this. This is a bang on assessment.
I remember being really enthused by Lavoie’s start – lets not forget, he had major knee surgery at the end of the prior season and likely spent the off-season rehabbing, as opposed to “hockey training”, wasn’t able to participate in camp and started the season late.
When he did start, his first few games were great to my eye – he was strong and powerful in his skating and I didn’t expect it. He then went in to a major lull where we barely impacted the game. I think it was 9 points in 20 games and they all came in one short heater.
He was having a down arrow.
Then came the healthy scratch and then came “the moment” – benched within a game against the Wranglers, words were exchanged on the bench with the coach. When he got back in the game, his first pro fight and from there on out he was a changed player. As LT said, a bully in battle, powerful driving net, creating, committed defensively, etc.
Even when he was not scoring for a few games he was impacting the game positively which was not the case any time prior.
Now, the next level, lets see how his game translates.
He will be hockey training this summer, that’s a good start.
Harpers Hair
July 7, 2023 10:53 am
Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
Zadina and Andreoff clear. Zadina will go through the process of picking his next NHL team. Believe Andreoff is headed overseas
Reja
July 7, 2023 10:49 am
Zadina and Yzerman must of had a discussion prior to him being put on waivers. Zadina must of told Yzerman I want out trade me once there was no takers Zadina must of then said I’ll terminate if you’ll set me free. I think Yzerman got blindsided by Zadina after the trade and buy-out of Yamamoto. What’s missing why would a player terminate his contract in the N.H.L unless he’s quitting the game and going back home.
There is no indication he’s quitting and going back home. This is a person that came over as a teenager to play major junior – I’m pretty sure he’s committed to trying to have an NHL career.
It seems he was willing to give up his guaranteed money in order to get a fresh start in a new organization. He was almost assuredly on his way to Grand Rapids and he wasn’t in to that so he was willing to give up the guaranteed money and clearly take less to play in a new organization and try and re-establish himself.
I don’t get it would he not even recieve a fair chance to make the team out of camp and preseason. Are the Red Wings that loaded in his position that he shouldn’t even bother trying since he’s going to the AHL. Something is missing I expect will find out later.
As far as I know there’s no indication he would have been sent to the AHL.
Reading between the lines, he and the coaching staff (and potentially his teammates) must not see eye to eye.
He must believe he’ll be happier and have a chance to grow as a player more on a different team. He gave up a lot of money to get out of the Wings organization (and it did not sound like Yzerman wanted him to go).
Jesse Puljujarvi is likely something of a guide in understanding Zadina’s thought process.
I’m not sure why you’re comparing Kostin to Foegele. In any case, Foegele was full value for his scoring while Kostin was on a heater – and then only with Nugent-Hopkins as his center when Woodcroft went with Unicorns. I’d rather have the guy whose underlying stats indicate that he’s a good bet to repeat his performance.
people do not realise that foegele scored at a very very solid rate and had amazing underlying defensive metrics. playing on the 3rd line primarily with ryan mcleod and derek ryan.
his 2.09 points per 60 at 5v5 scoring rate over the whole season was the same as john tavares.
his totals are better than notable names such as.
brad marchand (top line winger on almost any team)
nazem kadri (7 mil player)
nick suzuki (oooo franchise center)
kyle connor (elite sharpshooter and top line player)
trevor zegras (BUT OILERS SHOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM INSTEAD OF BROBERG)
andre burakovsky (5.5mil astute signing by seattle)
vladamir tarasenko (rumored to want at least 5mil on his next contract)
bo horvat (great 1c getting over 8million according to hockey man lou)
Val nichushkin (amazing hockey player signed by elite gm sakic)
Sam Bennett (fantastic rugged 2 way top 6 player who played 1c in the playoffs)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (5.4 mil aav contract)
Jonny Gaudreau (one of the best playmakers in the nhl according to some)
Mark Schiefele. (considered a 1c by almost everyone in the league)
Ivan Barbashev (worth almost 5 mil a yr)
Timo Meier (worth over 8 mil apparantly)
Johnathan Marchessault (conn smyth winner)
Some important context is that he was playing bottom six competition the majority of the time, only 23% of TOI vs elites.
We do know the long history of players with really good scoring rates in the bottom six that don’t sustain when given more minutes and tougher minutes.
With that said, I agree with the overall premise that Foegele’s play and impact was under-rated last season and he did have success in the short stints he had with Drai.
I do recall him struggling early, even healthy scratched mid-season, but damn was he very good for the last few months of the season and in to the playoffs – and that lines up with his wrist injury when he could barely shoot.
I look forward to what he does in a contract year and mid-career.
Its going to be tough to bring him back next season – his full cap hit goes to bonus overages.
Kert
July 7, 2023 8:49 am
I haven’t watched a lot of Zadina. From his draft I seem to remember goal scoring and speed being his calling card. He also seems to recover pucks well. If the goal scoring never arrived, what are we looking at? A shorter MPS?
He’s supposed to be a two way forward with a well-rounded game and a dominant offensive force. He’s one of those guy’s that shoots on the left side, but likes to play RW, the opposite of Hyman. He would probably get in Lavoie’s way. But there’s nothing like completion to bring out the best in players. I’d bring him in on a show me $775K for sure. They still need Kevin Mcleland though.
Filip Zadina has always been an intriguing player for me since before his draft. Size, speed, shot and I always wondered why he couldn’t gain traction on a very below average team. Since his 2018 draft where he was the 6th pick, the Wings have had the 6th, 4th, 6th, 8th & 9th overall picks. Is it really all on the player? Or is the organization simply horrible at supporting their prospects somewhere along the way? Seider was their first home run pick since Larkin in 2014 and Larkin basically hit the ground running after spending 1 year at Michigan and Seider spent 1 year in the AHL and then went to the SHL and then arrived fully formed as a top pairing defender, but they have mostly whiffed on their 1st and 2nd round picks over the past 10 seasons.
Regardless of his Motown time, Zadina has some interesting metrics. This took a minute, but I thought I would show his last 2 seasons, since he spent most of 22-23 on IR and compare his previous years’ results with names that have been discussed a lot this offseason.
In order to try to line things up as best as possible I used some unfamiliar abbreviations and am doing this on Word, so I could hopefully keep the mistakes to a minimum. Taken from PuckIQ, vsE is percentage of time vs Elites. I also took TOZ% from PuckIQ, Total OZ start percentage, because this gives more context to the overall results. The rest should be straightforward, but if anyone needs clarity, please let me know. Hopefully someone finds this info interesting. The rest I took from Natural Stat Trick, I hope this is not too busy or confusing.
I absolutely would love to see how he rolls with 97 or 29. I suspect that he would be a slight upgrade over Ty Rattie or Brandon Perlini….. Sign him up Kenny!
Player GP vsE TOZ% G/60 Sh% CF/CA/60rel FF/FA/60 HDCF/HDCA/60rel PDO IPP
21-22 Zadina 74 25.4 46.1 0.7 5.13 7.04/0.56 5.01/0.04 1.84 /-0.35 0.976 72.73
22-23 Zadina 30 20.1 50.2 0.5 6.0 5.14/-5.33 7.22/-6.82 3.56/-2.54 0.979 87.50
Konecny 60 37.3 51.3 1.2 12.59 7.67/1.24 3.85/2.88 0.77/3.35 0.991 86.49
Tatar 82 33.7 52.0 0.84 11.9 3.77/-6.35 4.92/-3.91 2.61/-1.52 1.031 57.38
Pius Suter 79 30.0 44.1 0.77 13.04 -2.09/-3.55 -2.2/-4.92 0.3/-1.7 0.986 64.52
Toews 53 30.3 49.0 0.35 8.51 1.4/0.14 -0.76/1.5 -0.43/3.73 0.963 70.00
Sundqvist Det 52 26.7 49.1 0.43 9.76 -1.16/0.0 -1.31/-1.9 -0.58/0.59 1.001 57.14
Foegele 67 23.2 51.1 0.93 10.98 2.33/-5.0 2.55/-4.79 1.27/-1.33 1.002 77.14
Yamo 58 26.5 51.1 0.66 8.5 10.6/-0.63 0.04/-0.95 -0.98/0.17 1.014 52.50
Kostin 57 19.0 47.1 1.17 19.64 -9.99/0.19 -8.8/-0.79 -3.82/0.3 1.042 67.86
21-22 Brown 64 36.4 44.5 0.59 11.11 4.56/-4.16 2.75/-3.71 0.92/0.06 0.981 77.14
y’all see this on Akey:
https://twitter.com/MitchLBrown/status/1666446973640097794
Great skater
also:
One of the best in the draft at winning body positioning and securing possession along the end boards, but undoes all that by throwing the puck away immediately after. That’s something that normally improves with time. Still, breakouts in general are a development key for him.
Logged in just to boost this:
“Chaulk and his staff have one main responsibility: Develop hockey players for the NHL Oilers.”
Super duper important that this is clear to Chaulk and Gretzky!
Of course, that includes putting players in positions to succeed and often that coincides with higher the “known names” having to work their way up the lineup and in to higher leverage situations – seems to have worked last season with the likes of Tulio, Philp, Lavoie, etc.
I have posted some of this below but i did a deep dive into mr foegele who is a bum and should be traded for sacks of cheese and a roll of half used hockey pucks to make cap space.
He had elite defensive metrics in the playoffs with ryan and ryan. and below is the real kicker.
this is LW with over 500 mins of ice time 5v5.
Mr Foegele represents #23 on the list.
His 2.09 points per 60 at 5v5 scoring rate is even more impressive if you compare with all fowards over the whole season.
His was the same as john tavares.
his totals are better than notable names such as.
brad marchand (top line winger on almost any team)
nazem kadri (7 mil player)
nick suzuki (oooo franchise center)
kyle connor (elite sharpshooter and top line player)
trevor zegras (BUT OILERS SHOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM INSTEAD OF BROBERG)
andre burakovsky (5.5mil astute signing by seattle)
vladamir tarasenko (rumored to want at least 5mil on his next contract)
bo horvat (great 1c getting over 8million according to hockey man lou)
Val nichushkin (amazing hockey player signed by elite gm sakic)
Sam Bennett (fantastic rugged 2 way top 6 player who played 1c in the playoffs)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (5.4 mil aav contract)
Jonny Gaudreau (one of the best playmakers in the nhl according to some)
Mark Schiefele. (considered a 1c by almost everyone in the league)
Ivan Barbashev (worth almost 5 mil a yr)
Timo Meier (worth over 8 mil apparantly)
Johnathan Marchessault (conn smyth winner)
Just out of curiosity what competition did Foegle play against vs the guys you mention?
By the same token, who were their linemates? Marchand, for instance, played with Bergeron and Pastrnak much of the season. That’s a massive upgrade on Foegele’s most common linemates.
Puck IQ, Elite, Middle, Gritensity – TOI% and DFF%
Foegele 23.2, 37.4, 39.4 DFF% 49.5, 62, 61.3
Marchand 38.3, 33.7, 27.9 DFF% 53.9, 64.7, 59
I stopped there
As has been mentioned here a lot, P/60 can be misleading. It averages for TOI, but if you aren’t getting TOI there’s a reason. NST All Scores Reg Season:
Foegele 2.09 P/60 – 12.7 min TOI/G All strengths
Marchand 2.08 P/60 18.5 min TOI/G All strengths
Foegele 13G 28 Pts (67 games)
Marchand 21G 67 Pts (73 games)
Marchand also coming off a major surgery. Foegele did well in his role for sure. But it’s a bottom 6 role. Also, do the Oilers ever over play Connor and Leon
Well hang on then-what kind of cheese are we talking here?
Seriously though, excellent analysis.
I’m a big points/60 guy after reading this blog for over a decade. Some like GeorgeXS have made compelling arguments against it.
Still.
You can’t fairly compare points/60 for a guy playing 3rd line comp and 11 and a half minutes (3rd line minutes) per game to guys playing top line minutes/comp on other teams.
There’s a myriad of examples that you can pull that will lead you to the wrong conclusion about whether player A or B is better than the other if you’re going to compare players based upon points per sixty when player A plays top line comp and minutes and player B plays 3rd line minutes and comp.
Coaches vote with their minutes. Foegele was 8th in toi/60 at 5v5. Now either you think Woodcroft is a fair and accurate judge of talent or you don’t.
With Bellemare gone to Seattle, here is my list of remaining potential 4C additions.
Listed is each players age, position, GP G-A-TP TOI and FO%:
J. Toews ——- 35 LC 53 15-16-31 17:42 63.1%
D. Grant ——- 33 LC 46 5–13-18 14:50 55.2%
T. Nosek ——- 31 LC 66 7-11-18 12:33 59.3%
P. Suter ——– 27 LC 79 14-10-24 14:03 46.8%
P. Stastny —– 37 LC 73 9–13-22 11:52 57.6%
E. Staal ——– 38 LC 72 14-15-29 14:14 46.2%
C. White ——- 26 RC 68 8–7–15 9:38 43.1% (46.5% in OTT)
D. Stepan —– 33 RC 73 5–6–11 9:04 54.0%
D. Brassard — 35 LC 62 13-10-23 12:10 50.0%
JJ. Khaira —– 29 LC 51 6–8–14 13:52 48.4%
O. Sundqvist – 29 RW 68 10-18-28 13:52 42.9% (44.3% in STL)
C. Tierny ——- 29 LC 36 3–7–19 10:51 47.0%
It’s ordered roughly by my preference as best fit, but there’s lots I don’t know.
I think my preferred 4C is Ryan McLeod. With Nugent-Hopkins playing 3C. Let’s get the young wingers (Holloway, Lavoie, Zadina?) some quality centers.
Unless, of course, Toews is willing to come on a league minimum (or close) deal.
I’m not adverse to that set-up but my main concern is getting enough 5 on 5 minutes for McLeod and, actually, as Woodguy has shown us, it might be prudent to make him the 2nd “tough minutes center” along with McDavid – he’s had much success against elites, and Drai has, well not.
Also, I know Nuge made hay on the PP but he was also very productive at 5 on 5 – he was 52nd in the league in 5 on 5 scoring – firmly first line production – ahead of many forwards one would think of as high end offensive producers.
I think we should also consider 52 when playing with who he was is pretty bad
And he was useless in the playoffs. Nuge is a multi tool player who is a problem outside of the PP
He isn’t a very good winger given production outside of his outlier season, and isn’t a 2C on a top team. They won’t play him 3C. He prefers C
This is a coaching issue. Play players to their strengths and not ask them to do what they can’t do well enough
Ya, I’m going to stop well short of agreeing that 52nd in scoring is pretty bad no matter who he played with.
I would also note that his two most common linemates were Hyman and Janmark.
Yeah, there’s an argument for using the 4 centers at their natural positions. I wouldn’t be opposed (nor would I prefer it), but I don’t think we’ll see it.
I think they hold off on another established NHL signing until they have more information on Toews – which could be a while.
I could be wrong, my sense though.
You could be right.
They may also have extended offers to some of those players and would sign them if the price comes down.
Also, you’ve said elsewhere that you think there’s a 10% chance that Toews signs a cheap deal with the Oilers. Do you really think they’re waiting for him on a 1 in 10 chance he signs?
Aren’t they waiting on the Bouchard contract which will dictate how much money they have available?
I don’t know.
Any signing at this point is going to be between $775k and $1.0M. At worst it’s $200k-ish above the incumbent (Lavoie/Pederson at of now).
If there’s a guy they think can legitimately help the team who’d cost $200k more than that I’d guess they sign that contract and risk the $200k consequences with Bouchard.
That’s just my guess though.
That’s my thought on the chances of all the necessary thresholds being passed (ready and able, wiling to play for Edmonton, accepting of a the required cheap contract).
We know the Oilers are in contact with him and they would have a much better indication – if two and three are locks and they are just waiting for him to determine, ya, I think they might wait.
Chris Johnston@reporterchris·10m
Pierre-Edouard Bellemare is joining the #SeaKraken on a one-year deal worth $775,000.
Colin Chaulk was on Oilers Now yesterday and always love listening to the spots of the AHL coach. There are always little nuggets of interest. A few things:
1) not that it really matters but, they were talking about Philp’s development last season and when he was struggling early and flopping between wing and center, one thing Chaulk mentioned is that he was struggling with the speed of processing breakouts as the low forward and making the right decisions. Philp spent a ton of time with video in that area and developed. Its neither here nor there now but I find little technical nuggets like this interesting as I don’t have the ability to to analyze those technical nuances generally.
2) Savoie is the one player that is noticeably “thicker” than last season. He was given advise and programs by the Condors and Oilers and has been working hard.
3) Noah H. asked to come to development camp – to get familiarized with the org, etc. I like that. Also, he was Vinny D’s d-partner in Wichita a few year’s back.
I think the kids were handled well. More opportunity may have been warranted but I would say the mediocre offence from the kids didn’t warrant the promotion. Griffith may have been underwater but Holland’s entire MO is to not give more to the prospects than they can handle. The tradeoff likely being allowing Griffith to handle the tougher minutes and lose at the benefit of the kids not potentially going underwater in the same minutes.
We’ve asked for this for exactly one forever, many articles on this blog referencing it. We get it and now we’re not promoting the kids fast enough? I get auditioning higher up the order based on quality available but I would be on the side of ‘are you dominating the minutes you’re given’. By the numbers, the kids who can be considered prospects didn’t do that. They were fine and improved but specifically with Borgault was not dominating ala a Bouchard or Holloway or Yamamoto in their stints to be given high end minutes.
I expect a Mcleod timeline for Borgault and that is perfectly reasonable for his draft position. If not, just like credit of success goes mostly to the player, so does failure (injury aside).
So, you expect a mid-season call-up for Bourgault this season? Npt sure I expect to see it but its definitely not out of the realm of reasonable possibility.
I believe it was in his second pro season that McLeod was PPG as part of the most dominant line in the AHL (with Marody and Benson) – that line was never in the defensive zone, they had the puck ALL THE TIME.
Bourgault should certainly have some good player to play with – heck he might play with Pederson and Caggiula, right?
Yes, I expect him to earn the recall and get a 10 game cup of coffee next year as Mcleod did. Offence once up is negligible (Cloud 1 assist in audition), earning a call-up is a reasonable goal for him this season. I expect the envelope to be pushed.
As you have said many times, the move from CHL to AHL is much bigger than most think. He stayed about as healthy as can be hoped for and was adequate not dominant in those minutes. It is reasonable to think a player with his history of offence will see an uptick now that he should be ‘comfortable’ at this level.
We wait.
I do expect to see him closer to 0.8 P/G (heck, if he’s playing with Drake and Lane, he may inch closer to a P/G) and full PK time.
Emerald City Hockey
@EmeraldCityHky
Kailer Yamamoto says former Oilers teammate Adam Larsson was the first to reach out to him after he signed.
Larsson texted him saying “Man, you’re gonna love it here.” #SEAKraken
Fortunately for Yamo, the Coachella Valley is also quite beautiful.
I expect he will find a spot in the Seattle bottom 6.
I’m not a big fan of JFresh’s work but, in a re-draft he posted today, Yamo did go higher than originally drafted (21st).
Of note: Skinner went 15th.
Yamamoto has missed his last wide open net in Edmonton. They should of kept Chaisson at least he had hands and covered his bet on his cap unlike Yamamoto.
Okay, that’s the end of this. It’s gone on too long, friends. Please move along.
He also needs to shave those sideburns
Lots of us (including myself) were all over Chaulk early in the season for not playing the kids. Every single one of them but Bourgault was healthy scratched at some point in the first few months of the season: Tulio, Savoie, Philp, Lavoie, etc.
As it turns out, I think Chaulk ended up doing a bang-up job with these kids. Most of them (save Savoie) really developed through the season and had great second halfs.
Tulio was playing some top line and PP1 in the 2nd half – he had a couple of heaters.
Philp went from after-thought to 1C by the end of the season and legit NHL prospect.
Lavoie we’ve talked about.
————————-
Will be interesting to see how Chaulk runs it this year.
You’ve got the “real prospects” now in to their 2nd/3rd years (Tulio, Lavoie, Savoie).
You’ve got the older prospect with a chance to play some NHL games (Kemp, Niemo)
You’ve got the new rookies: Chiasson, Petrov, Grubbe, Wanner
You’ve got the core vets: Malone, Esposito (along with guys like McKegg)
You’ve got the younger tweener vets: Cagguila, Pederson, Noah H. and Gleason).
just a small adjustment my good sir.
i believe his name is Noel Hoefenmeyer not Noah.
Ooops – thank you. I may have done that a few times.
There is a small chance I may not have got over the loss of Philp…..
Benson was not the same player in the AHL this past season – he was simply not a dynamic offensive player, which he had been throughout his AHL career.
Remember his “reinventing his game” at the NHL level, becoming more of an agitator/pest, to try and find a role. Well it seemed to took that new style of game to the AHL this past season.
I wonder what type of contract he gets this coming season. Does some team sign him to an NHL deal (2-way) or does he have to take an AHL contract? I don’t see him going to Europe.
Benson was having a pretty decent pre-season before getting injured. I think that injury took the wind out of his sails and demoralized him.
I was reading through and waiting for this. This is a bang on assessment.
I remember being really enthused by Lavoie’s start – lets not forget, he had major knee surgery at the end of the prior season and likely spent the off-season rehabbing, as opposed to “hockey training”, wasn’t able to participate in camp and started the season late.
When he did start, his first few games were great to my eye – he was strong and powerful in his skating and I didn’t expect it. He then went in to a major lull where we barely impacted the game. I think it was 9 points in 20 games and they all came in one short heater.
He was having a down arrow.
Then came the healthy scratch and then came “the moment” – benched within a game against the Wranglers, words were exchanged on the bench with the coach. When he got back in the game, his first pro fight and from there on out he was a changed player. As LT said, a bully in battle, powerful driving net, creating, committed defensively, etc.
Even when he was not scoring for a few games he was impacting the game positively which was not the case any time prior.
Now, the next level, lets see how his game translates.
He will be hockey training this summer, that’s a good start.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Zadina and Andreoff clear. Zadina will go through the process of picking his next NHL team. Believe Andreoff is headed overseas
Zadina and Yzerman must of had a discussion prior to him being put on waivers. Zadina must of told Yzerman I want out trade me once there was no takers Zadina must of then said I’ll terminate if you’ll set me free. I think Yzerman got blindsided by Zadina after the trade and buy-out of Yamamoto. What’s missing why would a player terminate his contract in the N.H.L unless he’s quitting the game and going back home.
Zadina’s original request to be traded came before the draft.
There is no indication he’s quitting and going back home. This is a person that came over as a teenager to play major junior – I’m pretty sure he’s committed to trying to have an NHL career.
It seems he was willing to give up his guaranteed money in order to get a fresh start in a new organization. He was almost assuredly on his way to Grand Rapids and he wasn’t in to that so he was willing to give up the guaranteed money and clearly take less to play in a new organization and try and re-establish himself.
I don’t get it would he not even recieve a fair chance to make the team out of camp and preseason. Are the Red Wings that loaded in his position that he shouldn’t even bother trying since he’s going to the AHL. Something is missing I expect will find out later.
As far as I know there’s no indication he would have been sent to the AHL.
Reading between the lines, he and the coaching staff (and potentially his teammates) must not see eye to eye.
He must believe he’ll be happier and have a chance to grow as a player more on a different team. He gave up a lot of money to get out of the Wings organization (and it did not sound like Yzerman wanted him to go).
Jesse Puljujarvi is likely something of a guide in understanding Zadina’s thought process.
What’s your basis for saying that?
He spent the entirety of the past 3 seasons in the NHL aside from a 2 game conditioning stint (after missing 3 months with a broken leg).
He was not being guaranteed a spot on the Red Wings roster, but I haven’t seen anything that would suggest he’d likely have been sent to Grand Rapids.
The Wings acquired Sprong, Kostin and Fischer.
Pretty sure he could read the tea leaves.
He asked for a trade before any of those players were acquired.
Are you sure it’s both of us?
No Comrade!
Here’s an interesting stat for you:
Klim Kostin scored 7 goals in 167 minutes with Nugent-Hopkins.
Klim Kostin scored 4 goals in 394 minutes without Nugent-Hopkins.
Without Nugent-Hopkins, Kostin’s scoring rate of 0.61 G/60 is barely better than Zadina’s 0.50 G/60.
If healthy Kostin is going to be a Rock Star in Detroit. I like Foegele but I would have preferred Kostin over Foegele.
I’m not sure why you’re comparing Kostin to Foegele. In any case, Foegele was full value for his scoring while Kostin was on a heater – and then only with Nugent-Hopkins as his center when Woodcroft went with Unicorns. I’d rather have the guy whose underlying stats indicate that he’s a good bet to repeat his performance.
And that’s without touching defensive play.
people do not realise that foegele scored at a very very solid rate and had amazing underlying defensive metrics. playing on the 3rd line primarily with ryan mcleod and derek ryan.
his 2.09 points per 60 at 5v5 scoring rate over the whole season was the same as john tavares.
his totals are better than notable names such as.
brad marchand (top line winger on almost any team)
nazem kadri (7 mil player)
nick suzuki (oooo franchise center)
kyle connor (elite sharpshooter and top line player)
trevor zegras (BUT OILERS SHOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM INSTEAD OF BROBERG)
andre burakovsky (5.5mil astute signing by seattle)
vladamir tarasenko (rumored to want at least 5mil on his next contract)
bo horvat (great 1c getting over 8million according to hockey man lou)
Val nichushkin (amazing hockey player signed by elite gm sakic)
Sam Bennett (fantastic rugged 2 way top 6 player who played 1c in the playoffs)
Oliver Bjorkstrand (5.4 mil aav contract)
Jonny Gaudreau (one of the best playmakers in the nhl according to some)
Mark Schiefele. (considered a 1c by almost everyone in the league)
Ivan Barbashev (worth almost 5 mil a yr)
Timo Meier (worth over 8 mil apparantly)
Johnathan Marchessault (conn smyth winner)
Some important context is that he was playing bottom six competition the majority of the time, only 23% of TOI vs elites.
We do know the long history of players with really good scoring rates in the bottom six that don’t sustain when given more minutes and tougher minutes.
With that said, I agree with the overall premise that Foegele’s play and impact was under-rated last season and he did have success in the short stints he had with Drai.
I do recall him struggling early, even healthy scratched mid-season, but damn was he very good for the last few months of the season and in to the playoffs – and that lines up with his wrist injury when he could barely shoot.
I look forward to what he does in a contract year and mid-career.
Its going to be tough to bring him back next season – his full cap hit goes to bonus overages.
I haven’t watched a lot of Zadina. From his draft I seem to remember goal scoring and speed being his calling card. He also seems to recover pucks well. If the goal scoring never arrived, what are we looking at? A shorter MPS?
He’s supposed to be a two way forward with a well-rounded game and a dominant offensive force. He’s one of those guy’s that shoots on the left side, but likes to play RW, the opposite of Hyman. He would probably get in Lavoie’s way. But there’s nothing like completion to bring out the best in players. I’d bring him in on a show me $775K for sure. They still need Kevin Mcleland though.
Lavoie shoots right but plays LW, so I’m not sure there’s much of a conflict there.
Tyler Bensons career has been outlined in Chaulk.