This is the 2014-15 AHL defense. Check out the goal differentials on Oscar Klefbom and Brandon Davidson. That season, the OKC Barons had an even-strength goal differential of 163-168 (minus 5), making Martin Marincin “average” for the group. Klefbom, Davidson, Marincin, Brad Hunt and Jordan Oesterle all had at least some success in the NHL. The next generation of prospect blue produced Darnell Nurse, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones and others. How many have accomplished what Klefbom and Davidson did in 2014-15?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Should the Oilers sign Filip Zadina?
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- Lowetide: Ideal roster positions for young Oilers in 2023-24
- Lowetide: Making sense of Oilers’ free-agent haul after initial flurry
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers still have work to do this summer
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: Assessing Edmonton Oilers’ remaining roster needs ahead of NHL free agency
- Lowetide: Realistic draft options for an Edmonton Oilers team low on picks
- DNB: What I’m hearing about the Oilers 3.0
- Lowetide: Why Connor Brown is a fit for the Edmonton Oilers in free agency
- DNB: Connor McDavid’s top-5 moments from another awards-laden season
- Lowetide: Oilers’ Jayden Grubbe and his organizational importance
- Lowetide: 4 impact QMJHL centres for Oilers to target late in 2023 NHL Draft
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Dylan Holloway is in prime position for a major role
- Lowetide: 5 quality Edmonton Oilers trade targets for low-budget offseason
DEFENSEMEN EVEN STRENGTH GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
Due to the hard work and diligence of our friend Eric Rodgers, we have a decade’s worth of even-strength goal differentials. I find it most helpful when viewing the defensemen. We get a good look into the young blue who should emerge as NHL players. It adds a vital piece to a most difficult tracking experience (no time on ice!). Looking back, the names who are below represent almost the complete set of NHL players (Ethan Bear and Jordan Oesterle not represented) who would land in the NHL from Edmonton’s high minors. I took the two best numbers from each year, some of these men played well short of a full season.
- Oscar Klefbom 2014-15. 17-7 (plus 10 on a -5 team)
- Brandon Davidson 2014-15. (plus 10 on a -5 team)
- Brad Hunt 2015-16. (plus 7 on a -18 team)
- Dillon Simpson 2015-16. (plus 4 on a -18 team)
- Darnell Nurse 2015-16. (plus 2 on a -18 team)
- Dillon Simpson 2016-17. (plus 9 on a plus 9 team)
- Griffin Reinhart 2016-17. (plus 9 on a plus 9 team)
- Keegan Lowe 2017-18. (plus 12 on a -24 team)
- Ryan Mantha 2017-18. (plus 1 on a -24 team)
- William Lagesson 2018-19. (plus 22 on a plus 60 team)
- Caleb Jones 2018-19. (plus 18 on a plus 60 team)
- Dmitri Samorukov 2019-20. (minus 6 on a minus 30 team)
- Evan Bouchard 2019-20. (minus 10 on a minus 30 team)
- Max Gildon 2020-21. (plus 16 on a plus 17 team)
- Theodor Lennstrom 2020-21. (plus 6 on a plus 17 team)
- Vincent Desharnais 2021-22. (plus 33 on a plus 39 team)
- Philip Broberg 2021-22. (plus 15 on a plus 39 team)
- Phil Kemp 2022-23. (plus 10 on a plus 8 team)
- Mike Kesselring 2022-23. (plus 4 on a plus 8 team)
The most impressive number? I’ll go with Vincent Desharnais in 2021-22, but there are others. Keegan Lowe in 2017-18, I think Dmitri Samorukov and Evan Bouchard in 2019-20 also represents quality. Phil Kemp from this past season was rock solid. Every measure of Ryan Mantha’s rookie season was a positive. We don’t talk about it much, but that was a tough turn for all involved.
FARM WORKERS REVIEW (2014)
I write these twice a year but have never gone back and reviewed a Farm Workers post. Since we have time, I thought 2014 would be a good year to review.
- Men who are over 30 and come out of the minors to establish (or re-establish) themselves are pretty much a thing of the past. You’ll find the odd goalie or defenseman but unlike the orginal 6 era very few teams have enough depth and free agency makes it impossible to keep them on the farm. Which is a good thing. BARONS 13-14: None this year, no Yann Danis and no Josh Green’s. Richard Bachman felt like this player type, but is miles from 30.
- Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past (say) 21 has some issues and is going to do some meandering (this is universal from 1965 onward). BARONS 13-14: The “issues” players are obvious. Anton Lander, who imo has offense and speed issues; Roman Horak, who has fled the scene; Mark Arcobello, who punched his ticket; Tyler Pitlick, who may or may not be hurting himself as you read this now. Flawed players, and we should not be surprised if none of them work out.
- We shouldn’t expect Rob Schremp to play more career games than Sam Gagner or Andrew Cogliano. Whatever that line in the sand is, that line sticks. BARONS 13-14: Of course it’s true, the years Pitlick lost to injury and struggles mean he’ll never get to Gags or Cogs. Klefbom and Marincin didn’t spend enough time in the minors to be severely harmed, but defensemen have their own issues (injury, crisis of confidence, new coaches, etc).
- No minor league regular is likely to do anything incredible like play in 1,000 NHL games. It is a rare thing for a player to spend a couple of seasons in the minors and then go on to a 1,000 NHL game calibre career. BARONS 13-14: Marincin and Klefbom have a chance, they really do, but let’s get them past 100 games before we get too excited. The two impressive callups arrived at 20, flew their sorties, used their perfectly good brains to figure out the different between calm and chaos, and flew the silver bird to the promised land.
- If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect of interest by 22 you are in trouble. The players who have graduated to useful NHL careers have at least played some NHL games by the end of their entry level deals. BARONS 13-14: I think this is probably the most important point in the group. There’s a difference between Tyler Pitlick and Curtis Hamilton, though it may only be 10 NHL games right now. It’s there. I think we can make a statement here, and ask people to argue against it. NHL teams, as a rule, make their decisions on prospects during their entry level deals. If they haven’t played in the NHL for their drafting team by 22, even just a little bit, they are probably not going to play in the following seasons.
- Exceptions are college men. Playing 4 NCAA seasons means turning pro at 22, meaning a “late start” for some quality prospects. BARONS 13-14: Yes. Yes all over. The college men for the Barons—Mark Arcobello, Taylor Fedun, Andrew Miller, Brad Hunt—they’re just terrific at delivering value. Sign them for nothing, send them to Black Rock, and they arrive two years later useful. Jesus, if I owned an NHL team college signing season would be bigger than the draft. Why not? Spend your brains out! Mark Arcobello didn’t cost a second round pick, but he’s kicking all their asses (Marincin excepted). There’s a lesson there.
- A large group of players on the current team could be described in the “tweener” division. History tells us we’ll have our answers on men like Schremp, Spurgeon, Roy and Reddox very soon. BARONS 13-14: These guys are taking the milk run, and very few ever make it. I would include Curtis Hamilton, Will Acton, Steve Pinizzotto, Ryan Hamilton, but also Travis Ewanyk, Kale Kessy, and we should probably keep Brandon Davidson in mind here—although that’s not fair as a statement yet. And as it turned out, Colin McDonald surprised us, although late in the game.
- If we make a list of the minor league RFA’s each summer, we can probably as a group pick the cuts and be fairly close. That 50 man list gets a haircut every summer. BARONS 13-14: MacT has killed most of them already—Martindale, Roy, Abney—the man is a steamroller, baby. He’ll have to decide on Tyler Pitlick, Curtis Hamilton, Andrew Miller, Richard Bachman. Roman Horak is already gone to Europe. I really like MacT’s handling of all the chaff, suspect he’ll have a harder time when it’s his kids, though. GMs always do.
- Daniel Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera became productive players in the toughest league on the planet. THEY are the stars in this study. BARONS 13-14: Yes. Yes. YES! Marincin, Klefbom and one or two others are very likely to be the stars of this show. The AHL doesn’t give you jacks and kings, but the league does supply those important role players. Klefbom and Marincin may well grow into top 4D (Marincin appears to be there, but let’s allow for some uncertainty), and those AHL sorties flown were important to development.
- For Rob Schremp fans, there’s exactly ONE pure offensive player who made it: Mike Walton. BARONS 13-14: Yes. Yes. Yes. Lordy we’ve seen a parade of scorers who didn’t make the grade. On the other hand, Mark Arcobello, who offers a range of skills, found his way through the minor league jungle with aplomb.
EVAN BOUCHARD
The Oilers are looking at most of $4 million for Evan Bouchard based on recent comparables, and probably $2.-2.2M on Ryan McLeod. The upshot is the team may have to run 21 again, Holland was hoping for 22. Here’s what it might look like.
PHILIP BROBERG
My article today at The Athletic features seven pressure points for Edmonton that may come during the 2023-24 season. One of them, a big one, is Philip Broberg emerging. Here are Broberg and Oscar Klefbom in their rookie seasons run through Puck IQ.
If we’re fair, we need to give Broberg some leeway in TOI. Klefbom was thrown to the wolves, whereas Broberg was trying to break in to a deep group that became suddenly incredible when Ekholm arrived. We also need to take heed of the lesson of Martin Marincin, who spent 40 percent of that season playing against elite competition and delivered 46 percent DFF Pct.
The Broberg numbers suggests the Oilers were wise using him as they did, and that may be the highest level Broberg attains. I don’t think we should look at his most recent season as clear evidence he can’t play top four, only that he was not trusted with those minutes at this time. Further, arguing that he hasn’t been entrusted because of the presence of Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak is an astute observation and should be considered if we’re being fair.
My post last night shows that the Oilers PK improved to above average in the 2nd half of 22-23 and was not bad in the playoffs either.
The improvement was fully supported by underlying numbers and seemed to involve the whole team (ie – it wasn’t just adding Desharnais or Ekholm.
To me that suggests a tweak in their system. Does anyone have insight to what the change(s) might have been (if any)?
So far all we have are ‘poor system’ and ‘trash system that doesn’t function’.
I believe it did improve, Janmark recall also contributed and Derek Ryan of course was excellent. Seemed to be some experimenting with Foegele and others, I don’t know if that died out over time.
One thing that is certainly true. Backing of the Nurse minutes will help. He’s a fine defenseman but overextended due to lack of support. Ekholm’s addition helped, and if Ceci can return to previous levels (I don’t have proof he can) the Oilers should be set.
The only defenseman I would keep away from the PK is Bouchard. He’s the PP guy.
Janmark and Ryan helped but they were there pretty much the whole season.
Agree Nurse should be fresher with fewer minutes. He actually did play a minute less per game in the 2nd half, though his PK TOI was basically identical.
On the PK 1st vs. 2nd half there was very little change in the forward personnel, and on D basically Kulak got faded in the 2nd half (2 minutes to 1) and Bouchard and Barrie got removed from the PK entirely (around 1 minute each to a few seconds).
They were replaced by Desharnais and later Ekholm, though as I said everyone’s results seemed to improve. Nurse-Ceci remained PK1, and had similar TOI, but with better results.
I was hoping a keen/critical eye would have picked something out of the trash. The improvement was really quite dramatic after all.
Games 1-42 vs. 43-83
GA/60 10.8 (29th) 6.1 (12th)
SA/60 65.0 (29th) 51.2 (12th)
xGF/60 9.1 (27th) 6.9 (7th)
SCA/60 64.4 (26th) 52.8 (13th)
HDCA/60 28.0 (25th) 18.0 (1st)
Cutting off 10 HD chances per 60? And the Nurse-Ceci improvement mirrored the team numbers. I feel like there had to be some system changes put in place by the coaching staff that led to the improvement.
Not a fan of Kulak on the PK either tbh. That’s eyeballs only so someone straighten me out.
Nice article up over at the Superfan. The Oilers PK needs some help.
My recollection was that it was absolute tire fire until they brought up Desharnais.
Yes, as I’ve been saying, two things let to decreased deployment for Borberg:
1) Kulak not consistently covering the bet at 2LD leading to the Ekholm acquisition; and
2) The PK been so bad in spurts that is was losing games, leading to Vinny playing.
Vinny essentially came in right after the Kings had that 4 PP goal game.
Truth be told, while Vinny averaged 2 min of PK per game and Broberg just 1 minute, their regular season PK numbers weren’t all that different. I’m sure Vinny saw more PP1 than Broberg but i haven’t parsed the data.
Also, of note, Vinny got shredded on the PK in the playoffs, most GA/60 on the team (among D) – I”m sure there was some luck in there and, of course, that sample is really small.
Interesting you flag Kulak. I need to dig back into his numbers and watch some tape.
I’d argue that Barrie was the weakest link on that pairing and the logjam over on RHD played a bigger role in acquiring Ekholm. Creates the balance.
I think Kulak is one of the best value contracts on the team and is proof that someone, somewhere in the Oilers understands the maths and knows how to find undervalued players.
One’s mileage can vary.
EKholm helped. Janmark too iirc
They play a trash system that simply doesn’t function.
What percentage of success would you attribute a superb system vs a sub par system (come on trash systems dont exist in nhl…. just dont throw eakins in my face)
And what percentage of success comes from having superb players (in this case penalty killers)
Using my extremely accurate mathematical model (puts dartboard away) Id say its 90-95% personnel.
I agree what ever happened to the box. They allow way to many high danger shots with this I’m smarter than everyone else previously for the last 80 years.
Virtually the whole league plays a 1-3-1. Execution is the issue.
Yeah, they were getting lit up this year until Desharnais was called up. Last season the GA rates were strong under Woodcroft but the underlying numbers weren’t good (though that was also the case for most of Tippett’s time as coach).
In the last 40 games of this season though (I think that corresponds with the LA game and Desharnais getting called up) they were above average on the PK in GA rates and all the underlying stuff. I guess Sunil wasn’t aware of that.
Desharnais had strong numbers after recall, and I’m sure helped. Everyone (including Nurse and Ceci) seemed to improve from that point on though, so I wonder if the coaching staff tweaked some things.
Oilers PK ranks last 40 games:
FA – 12th
SA – 12th
GA – 12th (also 2nd in GF/60, which helped a lot)
xGA – 7th
SCA – 13th
HDCA – 1st (yes, best in class)
They were also quite average in the playoffs – I’d figured they were bad. But they were middle of the road when compared either to all teams, or to the final 8 teams. VGK and FLA had the two worst PKs among the final 8 teams, FWIW.
One thing from the article I feel is worth mentioning. Sunil highlights Ceci having been bad his whole career on the PK based on his FA and SA rates, but fails to mention he’s almost always (8/10 seasons) been better than team in goals against rates on the PK.
Anyway, not to say the Oilers PK has necessarily been ‘fixed’, we’ll see. There are definitely strong signs that it was legitimately better in the 2nd half of last season though.
To me this points to the same things that are coming up a lot
The coaching staff and or Holland are in the way of what the stats are saying. Ceci in today’s game is not helping anywhere. He is maybe a decent 3rd pair only playing at even strength with the right partner because he isn’t good at PK so why pay that? Des better fits the role and brings the physical element
As usual the Oiler GM/coach’s see the personnel as the issue it seems, not poor systems. Or mediocre coaching. Yes certain players help things out. But if your systems don’t work without those players the systems are the problem. Other teams don’t have this issue, these ongoing issues, and nobody has all the good players
The better run teams get through injuries without tanking and have a team that plays well enough through four lines and three pairs. Goalies do better. That doesn’t mean you get to win the cup, but it’s a great foundation. Especially for a team with an unfair advantage as the Oilers have
I think that the talent on the team is hiding coaching that underserves them. The vaunted PP is so predictable and has no response to being defended specifically which happens in playoffs it’s sad. They should be able to adapt and take any defense apart with the amount of talent they ice. The Duo under pressure always look for each other almost exclusively. Vegas was able to take Leon away when it counted and as usual there weren’t many PPs when it counted. The needed goals didn’t come in a timely way again
5v5 they also should take teams apart. Nuge is an enigmatic player but if you play to his strengths and have a series of plays you are trying to execute based on the defensive system you face, he can use what he’s good at which is seeing things and his great passing. 5 players with a plan, trying to execute different strategies and trying to get open in a specific way
Nuge will see them and get the puck there. As will the Duo. If he’s supposed to cycle and wait for things to open up he’s not very good. Creativity gone, he doesn’t have the size and first step. Hyman has tunnel vision and would also benefit knowing what he should do other than ‘grind and go to the paint’. We know what creates higher quality chances. Low high plays, cross seam plays, screens, tips. Players finding open ice based on tactically drawing the defense out of position. Like Vegas did to us
We also know that defensively you want to stop this, and the coaches haven’t come up with a system that does it. Having better players has at times made it better, but again chips down they struggled and couldn’t get their GA down
Bouch again is shown by the stats to be far more effective than Ceci. Why wouldn’t you use your best option even if not perfect? He’s the best option. Or get a better one. That’s the GMs job. I am worried that they don’t see it this way despite mounting evidence and will waste another season to it. It’s not just me whining again, opinions outside the Oilogosphere have been saying this for a while. Can’t defend, don’t do normal NHL things, predictable. Blaise GM
Being nice and more competent than what came before isn’t the same as what these Oilers need, to be as great as they easily could be
You know the more it goes along the more Woody seems like McLelland. Which isn’t surprising really. Great Woody can squeak out wins against LA with a better roster but we need the next step
You’re criticizing the most effective power play in history? And saying it failed them in the series against Vegas? They scored 9 pp goals in 6 games (39%) including 3 in the game 5 loss. The only ineffective game they had (1/7) was game 4, and they won it. They went 0/2 and 0/1 in 2 losses because a) very small sample size and b) Hill making some big saves.
Vegas was terrified of the Oilers PP, and rightly so. Their coach and Marchessault both said, they were out matched on special teams and had to win the 5 in 5 battle.
Bouchard is the no. 1 RHD based on all evidence.
“Only Nurse, by a single second, finished ahead of the brilliant, young puck-mover in overall (playoff) minutes per game.”
https://theathletic.com/4680893/2023/07/12/oilers-leon-draisaitl-philip-broberg/
LT, you are exactly correct regarding line up as we are currently constructed. But, we need that 13th forward. Or at least room to bring someone up when injury hits.
Klefbom and Broberg have always been good comarables give they have run so close through their draft plus 3, at each stage of development – essentially their post draft but non-NHL years.
I would suggest that Broberg was slightly “ahead” of Klef at most of the first 3 years post draft – nominal though.
Its now getting tough to compare them at year 4, essentially their first full NHL seasons, as Klefbom was on a very poor team and was given big minutes and responsibility, not because he was ready and had earned it on merit, but because the team had poor players. Broberg, on the other hand, was given sheltered minutes and didn’t get the opportunity with higher leverage minutes, not because he wasn’t showing well but because, well, he’s on a very good team with very good players in front of him.
Klefbom got more but got killed with little support.
Broberg to less but showed well with lots of support.
I take Bouchard over K’Ander Miller each and every day – even with Bouch’s struggles (at both ends) during the first half of last season his overall numbers at 5 on 5 over the course of the last two years are high end and, of course, some of that low production last season was “luck based).
Bouchard has was an elite offensive producer at 5 on 5 in 2021/22 (12th in points) and is 18th in points over the course of two years.
We know what he can do on the PP and I don’t think 70 plus points is out of the question.
With that said, as far as comparing him to what K. Miller did this past season, Miller had more 5 on 5 points, Miller played almost 2 minutes per game on the PK, Miller led his team in 5 on 5 TOI/G.
Holland’s team can make a definite argument that Bouch should come in a bit below Miller based on numbers from this past season.
Of course, there is Bouch leading all d-men in scoring in the playoffs (by a margin) and having only played two rounds…….
Bob Stauffer@Bob_Stauffer·1h·
Evander Kane with @EdmontonOilers
GP: 84
G: 38
A: 29
P: 67
+/-: +21
PPG: 3
SHG: 3
EVS G: 32
Big part of EDM’s top 6 next season
After an injury plagued season it’s easy to forget how good Kane has been as an Oiler.
Over the last 125 games (since he first joined the Oilers) he’s tied for 59th with 26 5v5 goals. That’s with 41 games missed and a bunch of them played at less than 100%.
If you pro-rate his games played to 120 (still not perfect health) he’d be around 10th in the league in 5v5 goals in the past season and a half.
The Oilers top six wingers are old.
Connor Brown is the youngest and even he’ll be 30 by the playoffs.
Yet, not one of them has turned 32 yet.
Our youngest top 6 winger is 29. So old.
Our oldest top 6 winger is 31. What a young group.
Hahahahaha. I am happy for this post.
The Oilers were top six in the league last year, as a team, in terms of 5v5 GF/60.
But yeah, 5v5 offense is the first thing to go and it would be nice to have a younger player challenge for a top six role.
Hopefully Kanes outscoring issues last year were injury and not age related.
He’s scored goals and produced, that’s for sure.
He was on for alot of goals against last season, both in the regular season and playoffs. Obviously he doesn’t own it all but he was the highest expected goals against per 60 on the team as well…..
Of course, he was not a healthy player for much of last season.
I would think if they gave Bouchard $4M they might be able to get him to take more term, say 3 or 4 years. That just means they sign MacLeod to another one-year deal at something between $1.5M & $2M, if possible. Macleod will be highly motivated to prove his worth.
4 years walks him to UFA status and Dobson signed for $4M x 3. In the light of the Miller & Byram deals, I don’t think Holland will be able to get 4 years without raising the AAV significantly.
Yup, I don’t think he even gives 3 years for a $4MM AAV.
An updated look at potential 4C candidates.
As LT said the Bouchard and McLeod contracts are looking like they’ll force a 21-man roster.
But, if Bouchard signs for $3.9M x 2 and McLeod for $2.1M x 2 that would leave a bit more than $1.1M for the final forward on the roster (ie – the Oilers could still add someone).
Here’s the current list:
(age, handedness, GP G-A-TP +/- TOI FO% from last season)
J. Toews ——- 35 LC 53 15-16-31 17:42 63.1%
T. Nosek ——- 31 LC 66 7-11-18 12:33 59.3%
D. Grant ——- 33 LC 46 5–13-18 14:50 55.2%
P. Suter ——– 27 LC 79 14-10-24 14:03 46.8%
P. Stastny —– 37 LC 73 9–13-22 11:52 57.6%
E. Staal ——– 38 LC 72 14-15-29 14:14 46.2%
D. Brassard — 35 LC 62 13-10-23 12:10 50.0%
C. White ——- 26 RC 68 8–7–15 9:38 43.1% (46.5% in OTT)
D. Stepan —– 33 RC 73 5–6–11 9:04 54.0%
JJ. Khaira —– 29 LC 51 6–8–14 13:52 48.4%
C. Tierny ——- 29 LC 36 3–7–19 10:51 47.0%
It’s looking less likely that Toews will return to the NHL next season, and Nosek apparently wants $2M a year and has multiple suitors (though likely not at that number).
I’ve looked into Derek Grant more recently and he’s my current favorite as ‘probably helpful and realistically available’ for the Oilers.
Aside from the FO%, he’s scored surprisingly well (1.61 5v5 P/60 over the last 3 seasons, and better the past 2).
He has averaged 14:32/game in TOI (3 years) including 2:30 on the PK. His PK results are in line with team, while he’s been a bit under water at 5v5 even relative to a bad Anaheim team (though his 5v5 relative numbers were in the black this past season).
The on ice numbers are a concern, but less so realizing that he played legitimately tough minutes. Aside from 24% Ozone starts last year (and under 40% for the last 5 yrs) he’s unique on my list of centers in actually having played tough opposition (he was 3rd, 5th and 4th the last 3 yrs among Ducks forwards in %TOI vs. elites). Everyone else listed has played 3rd or 4th line opposition in recent years.
His most common linemates the last 3 years in Anaheim were Deslauriers, Silfverberg and Lundestrom so he’s played on legitimately hard matched checking lines.
He brings a lot of things that are useful (faceoffs, PK, some offense) and it seems likely his on ice numbers would improve dramatically with more typical 4th line use.
If they want a RHC, D.Stepan would probably be the best choice. He’d fit nicely with M.Janmark & D.Ryan on the fourth line. But so too would P. Stastny or T. Nosek.
C.White might be a good choice too, being a RHC. Maybe D.Ryan could help him win more faceoffs.
Yeah, I don’t think they’ll be able to sign a worthwhile RHC.
You can see from the post that Stepan only played 9 minutes a game, and he was one of the most sheltered forwards in the league the last couple of seasons in Carolina. Also wonder if he’d be interested in coming to Western Canada (more than most of the others). I think White is a better bet than Stepan, but both are in ‘maybe not worth a contract’ range IMO.
If I am following this correctly you are leaving Lavoie off of the roster and using the $1.1575 for the 21st player to max out the cap completely?
Yup, though ideally not the full $1.15M and change.
Brassard and Stepan can’t skate anymore.
That’s why they’re towards the bottom of the list.
Leavins weighed in on the Toews situation.
I would like Nosek or Suter, but they’d really have to want a cup ring over cash to come here for what we can afford.
Agreed that Grant looks intriguing, but I haven’t looked to closely.
Yeah I saw that from Leavins. And from Specter as well the day before.
Agree that Nosek and Suter (together with Toews and Grant IMO) are the top options from an Oilers perspective. Stastny and Staal might be the only others worth worth a deal. And agreed that Nosek and Suter are probably also be the least likely to sign within the Oilers budget.
Grant checks all the boxes in terms of role (if not performance), but what surprised me was how good his scoring rates were and how tough his minute were. He’s the only one who actually played against top comp – all the others were depth players for their respective teams (I guess Toews also played 2nd line-ish comp, but everyone else was facing 3rd or 4th lines).
I thought Klefbom’s numbers reflected here would be over roughly 80 games… nope, only 60 games! Talk about thrown into the deep end of the pool without water wings.
Broberg accomplished his numbers in 46 games which seems fair given his deployment.
Gonna go out on a limb and suggest whatever Bouchard comes in at for this year by the end of the 2024 regular season it will be seen as one of the best value deals in the NHL.
What we saw at the end of last year wasn’t a fluke. Its the new normal. His PDO was a little low so if the goalers play NHL level there won’t be any distortions of what he brings. Consistent partner and PP time will smooth out his offense and provide a shot in the arm confidence wise. He’ll flourish offensively this year.
If we believe that the Norris Trophy goes to the defenseman with the most points you should pencil Bouchard’s name on it right now. He’ll finish next year with a Top Ten season for points by a defenseman. My bet is 105 but your mileage may vary.
I’m not sure we see the Oilers with four 100 point players next year. That’s asking a lot of Nuge, Hyman or Kane especially if all three happen to stay healthy. That said imagine the possibilities if all three happen to stay healthy. Three 100 point players is basically a lock though. That’ll be the first back to back season of three or more 100 point players on a team since the Oilers went on a five season run in the 80s.
I don’t think Holland was correct in saying last years team was peak offense. I think they take a run at 400 this year.
You had me until pencil, or maybe 105. I could see 90 points for Bouch though. Big question is the pp. Huge difference between the record setting regular season and the astronomical numbers from the playoffs. Are you suggesting a +\- 60% pp as a new normal? They rocked that against two very good, structured, and desperate teams what will they do to the Anaheims in January?
Bouchard scored .49 PPG last season…about 50th in the NHL.
The top 5:
Karlsson 1.23
Makar 1.10
Q. Hughes .97
Morrissey .97
Dahlin .94
I’m curious what leads you to believe Bouchard will surpass these players (and many others) to score the most points by a defenseman and win the Norris trophy.
I’m not on board with the Norris or 105 point predictions, but after Barrie was traded Bouchard scored 33GP 9-27-36 (1.09 points/game and an 89 point pace). That’s regular season and playoffs combined.
It is very reasonable to expect Bouchard to be in the point/game range and among the top scoring Dmen next season (after Karlsson, the next highest scorers last season had 76 points).
The Norris nod is assuming that trophy is about points. If its points he wins it, if he gets the McDavid Teammate treatment they probably give it to someone else.
As you identified Bouchard scored at 0.95 ppg after the deadline and then at 1.42 in the playoffs. I don’t think this is a fluke, its closer to his potential with the group of forwards he gets to play with. By those numbers he’s firmly in the group HH highlighted. And much like that group of defensemen he generates offense. He’s not just a distributor and he’s still growing into that role.
I think a full year on the PP with the most creative PP forwards in recent NHL history will provide a very nice backstop to his offensive production. His PP success will bring confidence and pizzaz into his 5v5 play where he’ll play a larger role, with more time with the top six forwards contributing to their outperformance.
Yeah I think Bouchard will probably score in the point per game range next season, and it is possible he’s the top Dman scorer. The Norris talk is a bit much though IMO. Most of the guys who’ve won it (primarily) with their offense (Karlsson, Josi) have led their teams in scoring.
We could break it down even farther.
5v5: over the past 3 years, Bouchard has averaged 1.32 P/60, 8th best among defensemen who played at least 2000 minutes. So it’s perfectly reasonable to expect him to continue at that rate, especially considering the top-4 position will give him access to greater QoT. Let’s say he plays 18 minutes per game and scores at 1.32 P/60, that’s 32 points at 5v5 over an entire season.
PP: over the final 19 games last year Bouchard averaged 7.35 P/60 on the man advantage, good for 7th in the league among defensemen. Barrie was 7.09 P/60 for the season, so I think Bouchard’s number is repeatable. If he plays 280 minutes on the PP (his average over those 19 games multiplied by 82) then we should see another 34 PP points.
That brings us to 66.
Now add in the additional minutes he’ll get like 3v3 OT, 4v4, 6v5 etc. and I don’t think it’s unreasonable to project 75 points next year. I think that actually might be conservative.
So yes, he should be in the conversation for the Norris.
It creates an interesting variable in contract negotiations.
Most folks are using the Byram and Miller bridge deals as comparables which seems reasonable BUT..both those players are not tasked with PP1 duties since they play behind Makar and Fox so their stats won’t be inflated like Bouchard’s.
Seems to me Bouchard’s agent might and should hold out for a one year bridge deal and then swing for the fences on his next contract.
Bruce McCurdy breaks things down.
https://edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/nhl/cult-of-hockey/evan-bouchard-contract-logjam-hangs-over-oilers-summer-might-recent-signings-of-byram-miller-set-the-scale
Also worth pointing out that a two year bridge for Bouchard would align his next contract with the expiration of Draisaitl’s contract which could lead to some very tough choices.
I doubt it’s possible, but a 5-6 year term at a lower AAV for Bouchard now would be much more prudent.
Well an 8 year deal would be the most ‘prudent’ if the Oilers were a rebuilding team. They are not, so the definition of prudent changes.
Based on their roster and cap structure, a 2 year deal has the potential to be the worst of all outcomes.
Of course winning a cup in that timeframe would certainly make that worthwhile but as we’ve seen, winning creates its own pressures.
I disagree.
Beyond McLeod and Bouchard the only other key players who’ll be looking for raises in the next 2 years are Holloway, Broberg and Draisaitl.
The cap will go up by $8-9M, Neal’s buyout ends then (~$2M) and the Foegele (2024) and Ceci (2025) contracts will also have expired ($6M more).
The Oilers should have in range of $14-16M over the next couple of years that they can devote to raises for Draisaitl, Bouchard, McLeod, Holloway and Broberg (above what they end up making in 23-24).
Assuming Bouchard performs as many are expecting, a long term contract would likely see him in the $10 million range on his next deal…an increase of around $6 million.
Draisaitl is a little harder to project but let’s say he gets an additional $4 million.
One would think McLeod will be in the $4 million range under the higher cap.
That’s $14 million right there before whatever Broberg and Holloway
get on their next deals…let’s assume $3 million each.
And, of course Ceci and Foegele will have to replaced likely for a minimum of $2 million each.
Yes, his agent likely is pushing for that. There’s also an argument for him making an extra $500k-$1M next season on a 2-year deal and getting an even higher AAV after 2 season on PP1. We will see.
Yep…I would imagine Gagner will try and extract a premium if the deal is two years.
Everyone is trying to extract a premium HH.
If only you used your powers for good.
Why I helped an old lady across the street just yesterday.
Yeah but you stole her purse!
He actually had zero points in the first 2 games after Barrie was traded, so the 36 points was scored in just 31 games (19 in the final 19 regular season games plus 17 in 12 playoff games).
Even being conservative, he’s likely floating no less than about 0.8 pts/gm with 60 more games feasting on PP1 quarterback minutes, instead of barrie.
One of these things is obviously not like the other ones.
This is what leads me to believe it’s possible to outscore the players mentioned: his track record.
Past 3 years 5v5 P/60 (>2000 minutes):
1. Karlsson: 1.63
2. Makar: 1.61
8. Bouchard: 1.32
21. Hughes: 1.17
39. Dahlin: 1.07
57. Morrissey: 0.98
Past 3 years 5v4 P/60 (>200 minutes):
1. Makar: 6.86
6. Hughes: 6.25
12. Dahlin: 4.33
28. Karlsson: 4.41
31. Morrissey: 4.18
37. Bouchard: 4.00
In the last 19 games of the regular season, once he had taken the reins of PP1, Bouchard scored at a rate of 6.67 P/60 at 5v4.
He’s good. Very good.
All of the other players you listed played top pairing against elite competition.
If Bouchard was on any other team we’d hear about him every single day about how incredible he is. You seem to have softened on the talent portion and moved on to the tough contract portion though so good on ya.
He remains what I always thought he would be.
Almost as good as Brogan Rafferty?
Bouchard upped his 5v5 scoring rate to 2.06 in the final 19 games. Who you play with matters more than who you play against.
I like the optimism but it seems more than a tad optimisitc.
I’ve been calling Bouch and elite offensive d-man over the last while, and I stand by that and fully believe it, and I think he COULD approach 80 points. 100 plus seems out of the realm of reasonableness.
I can’t see Hyman or Kane coming close to 100 points and would presume Nuge will be in the 75-80 point range if healthy (which would be his second best season).
Brad Marchand is 35. He started scoring at a 100 point pace at 29 and ran that until 2022. He had his most productive stretch over the same age as Nuge (who just turned 30) is hitting now.
Hyman had 83 last year and was hurt from late February onwards. Kane is running at a 65 point pace across a lot of missed time. Lots of goals could come if everyone stays healthy. They are 30, 31 and 32 for next season. Are they all 100 pointers? No not exactly, could one of them pop off ala, Nuge? If healthy the odds are high for a few more years, yes.
I’ve long stopped calling a top on the offensive magic that McLeon are capable of producing. We haven’t seen peak yet IMO. We saw another level to the PP in the playoffs. As noted above, if healthy, I think this team will take a run at 400 goals this year.
My estimates for Bouch, Oh its optimistic alright. And you are correct. Bouch has always been an elite offensive dman. His draft year saw the best offensive output from an 18 year old in 22 years (a nod to Ellis’ 17 year old season in 08/09 on a stacked Spitfires team). Bouch did it scoring the most goals, assists and points on his team that year. A mediocre Knights squad it was. The next year he re-joined a quarter of the way in, scored at 1.17 ppg and then raised it to 1.90 in the playoffs where he led his team in scoring.
No tagging along here. An Elite driver.
It takes time for guys to learn the NHL game though. Bouch needed some time to put it all together. If I had a big name athlete to draw a parallel with it would be Brooks Koepka.
What we saw at the end of last year and then in the playoffs was a glimpse. Bouch is a kindred soul to McLeon. They will feed off each other in the best way possible.
Thank you for the response and, your opinion is your opinion but the additional though process doesn’t change mine.
I’m basing my opinion on watching Nuge for the last decade and being reasonable about what last season was and its repetability.
I would put Nuge repeating last season as more likely than Kane or Hyman coming near 100 points – again, its from watching them play and knowing their games and what skills they do and do not have.
I’d like to see Bouch away from Eckholm to see if his progress is real or just an Eckholm driven heater. What will actually matter is Bouch progress at 5 on 5 and not just stacking points on the greatest PP in league history.
Having depth is a good thing. I prefer the Bro situation to the Klef wolves situation.
In football (soccer), you usually just loan a younger player to a different league to get their reps. The NHL is pretty limited with its talent jump between lesser leagues, assume that’s also partially why the NHL doesn’t participate in the Champions Hockey League.
It causes the classic catch 22 where you need experience to get the job but in order to get experience, you need the job. Here’s hoping Bro pushes the envelope enough to make the decision easier this year. Our cap situation would certainly appreciate it.
The Oilers are lucky Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak are all generally very healthy players and able to play a full 82 games most seasons. Broberg however, is unlucky because they are able to do that.
I think it was ’09-’10, the defense was in shambles, Tom Gilbert was the one who could stay healthy, Lubo was moved out for one of Ryan Whitney’s legs. No.7-on-the-depth-chart-No.1-in-your-hearts Strudwick ended up playing the second most minutes total by the end of the season after Gilbert. Broberg would have had no problem finding minutes on that team.
Like you say, having depth is a good thing. 🙂
New for The Athletic: Oilers’ 2023-24 season has potential for loud noises
https://theathletic.com/4680893/2023/07/12/oilers-leon-draisaitl-philip-broberg/