After the trade deadline, at five-on-five, Jay Woodcroft ran Ryan McLeod just 18 minutes versus elites according to Puck IQ. Why? Coaches have learned over time that young players are less trustworthy than older ones. Is that it?
McLeod is a burner, he’s going to have a career, his offense is coming into view and his overall possession metrics are rock solid. So, do we conclude McLeod won’t play versus elites this coming season, and the seasons beyond?
Hell no. Trust comes with experience. Unless you’re Connor McDavid the move up the depth chart is predictable and rhymes with the old saying about always putting young players in a position to succeed.
Did Woodcroft do this with all the young dudes? Here’s the truth: Woodcroft played McLeod as third-line center all down the line. He played in just nine of 21 games after March 1. He has earned the trust of Jay Woodcroft, as has Evan Bouchard. Next stop? Philip Broberg.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Ken Holland’s Oilers legacy and the magnitude of next summer’s moves
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
PUCK IQ VERSUS ELITES, DEADLINE IN
- LD
- LD Darnell Nurse 97 minutes
- LD Mattias Ekholm 93 minutes
- LD Brett Kulak 41 minutes
- LD Philip Broberg 8 minutes
- RD
- RD Cody Ceci 90 minutes
- RD Evan Bouchard 89 minutes
- RD Vincent Desharnais 36 minutes
- LC
- LC Leon Draisaitl 89 minutes
- LC Connor McDavid 76 minutes
- RC Nick Bjugstad 34 minutes
- LC Devin Shore 24 minutes
- LC Ryan McLeod 18 minutes
- LW
- LW Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 91 minutes
- LW Warren Foegele 50 minutes
- LW Evander Kane 47 minutes
- LW Mattias Janmark 44 minutes
- RW
- RW Zach Hyman 74 minutes
- RW Kailer Yamamoto 73 minutes
- RW Derek Ryan 42 minutes
- RW Klim Kostin 18 minutes
So, what can we learn about trust from this? I know you want to rush to the comments section to call Jay Woodcroft a dummy, but let’s just linger here a moment. Among the youngsters (in bold) and newbies, it appears the oldest in the group took on the bigger role (Desharnais). More on that in a moment.
Evan Bouchard is in the thick of the battle now after being ignored for years. If coaches trust a young player, and it works? Giddyup. That will be Broberg’s season. It will take an injury, or (hold the hell on) poor play, or (more likely) Broberg’s own quality play. Remember, he trained wonky and he hurt himself at the beginning of last season.
Okay, let’s do minutes per game versus elites, again March 1 until the end of the season. This reveals much about what the coaching staff was thinking about McLeod:
- LD
- LD Darnell Nurse 4:38
- LD Mattias Ekholm 4:26
- LD Brett Kulak 1:57
- LD Philip Broberg :43
- RD
- RD Cody Ceci 4:44
- RD Evan Bouchard 4:13
- RD Vincent Desharnais 1:49
- LC
- LC Leon Draisaitl 4:13
- LC Connor McDavid 3:37
- LC Ryan McLeod 2:01
- RC Nick Bjugstad 1:46
- LC Devin Shore 1:44
- LW
- LW Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 4:20
- LW Evander Kane 2:46
- LW Warren Foegele 2:22
- LW Mattias Janmark 2:04
- RW
- RW Zach Hyman 3:53
- RW Kailer Yamamoto 3:29
- RW Derek Ryan 1:59
- RW Klim Kostin 1:01
So, we have some small changes here in terms of the depth chart. McLeod’s minutes per game versus elites spikes into what we would consider normal order. He’s even ahead of Bjugstad, a player acquired to shore up the position. Here’s what that looks like:
I’m giving the story away a little here (McLeod’s results were far better), but you can see that McLeod’s time versus elites is clearly beyond Bjugstad. Woodcroft trusted him down the stretch over the veteran. That’s not suppressing McLeod, it’s giving him opportunity.
These numbers tell us the regular season stretch run had a pecking order and McLeod was the No. 3 center.
Now, McLeod’s a big part of this story, but I want to bring it back to trust, and Broberg. Do you see the Kulak minutes and minutes per game above? Here’s a look at what he did with them:
- LD
- LD Darnell Nurse 50.5 DFF Pct
- LD Mattias Ekholm 53.8 DFF Pct
- LD Brett Kulak 34 DFF Pct
- LD Philip Broberg 21.6 DFF Pct
- RD
- RD Cody Ceci 46.9 DFF Pct
- RD Evan Bouchard 57.4 DFF Pct
- RD Vincent Desharnais 40.6 DFF Pct
- LC
- LC Leon Draisaitl 51.4 DFF Pct
- LC Connor McDavid 48.8 DFF Pct
- RC Nick Bjugstad 38.3 DFF Pct
- LC Devin Shore 44.9 DFF Pct
- LC Ryan McLeod 56 DFF Pct
- LW
- LW Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 61.6 DFF Pct
- LW Warren Foegele 46.1 DFF Pct
- LW Evander Kane 27.0 DFF Pct
- LW Mattias Janmark 40.9 DFF Pct
- RW
- RW Zach Hyman 56.5 DFF Pct
- RW Kailer Yamamoto 47.3 DFF Pct
- RW Derek Ryan 48.8 DFF Pct
- RW Klim Kostin 40.1 DFF Pct
DFF Pct is Smart Corsi (via Puck IQ) and acts like expected goals, in this case against elites. Lots here, so let’s get to it. First, Kulak got caved and so did partner Desharnais down the stretch. Broberg’s numbers are poor but it’s eight minutes. Cody Ceci was struggling, his core issue (I’m surprised no Edmonton rock band has stolen the name) had an impact.
Among the forwards, Ryan McLeod had the best run, although in just 9 games (we’re looking at 21 total). One final note: Evander Kane, man. He was not close to himself. His most common linemates during this run? Kailer Yamamoto 145 minutes (49 pct expected goals); Connor McDavid 123 minutes (43 pct expected goals); Leon Draisaitl 110 minutes (51 pct expected goals); Zach Hyman 60 minutes (42 pct expected goals).
In the series against Vegas, Kane led the Oilers forwards in five-on-five (this is all five-on-five, either Puck IQ or Natural Stat Trick) ice time but couldn’t find anything that rhymed. He scored one (second) assist in 95 minutes (!!!), and his goal share was 2-5. I think Woodcroft would have been better served by sitting Kane. He was hurt.
As for McLeod, he played more minutes for game at five-on-five than Bjugstad, 11:01 to 9:32. McLeod’s goal rate was 2-3, Bjugstad 1-4.
In Game 5 v Vegas, McLeod played more five-on-five (10:16 to 5:40) than Bjugstad, same in Game 6 (11:10 to 5:51). In those games combined, Bjugstad played 3:01 versus Eichel (0-1 goals), McLeod played 6:06 (0-0 goals).
For the series, McLeod played 17:39 versus Eichel, won the shot share 14-6, lost the goal share 0-1. Woodcroft trusted him. Bjugstad played 20:28 versus Eichel, lost the shot share 5-17 and the goal share 0-3.
In Games 1-4, Bjugstad played 17:27 and posted 0-2 goals versus Eichel. McLeod? In Games 1-4, McLeod played Eichel for 11:33 (significantly less) and was 0-1 goals. Don’t know why. That’s a question for the coach. Here, let’s run the v. Eichel minutes for the entire series:
- Game 1: Bjugstad 4:13, 1-4 shots; McLeod 3:52, 2-3 shots [0-1 goals]
- Game 2: Bjugstad 4:57, 3-5 shots; McLeod 4:01, 6-1 shots
- Game 3: Bjugstad 6:04, 1-4 shots, [0-2 goals]; McLeod 1:31, 0-2 shots
- Game 4: Bjugstad 2:10, 0-2 shots; McLeod 1:58, 1-0 shots
- Game 5: McLeod 3:34, 1-0 shots; Bjugstad 2:57, 0-2 shots, [0-1 goals]
- Game 6: McLeod 2:42, 4-0 shots; Bjugstad four seconds, no results
I think Woodcroft trusts McLeod and this season that will happen with Broberg. If it doesn’t happen in Game 1, give it time.
If you want to be concerned about an Oilers defenseman with little experience, I’d suggest Vincent Desharnais. Not because he is a poor player, but because his 2022-23 results were so fantastic one wonders if it can be repeated.
Lowetide@Lowetide·1h
There’s 21 men, $282,500 in cap room, so if you wanted to sign Pius Suter for $1M and punt Lane Pederson to the AHL you could do it.
https://twitter.com/Lowetide/status/1686559311873613824
————
I’d fully endorse that. Likewise for Toews if he decides he wants #4.
That player could be/likely is Raphael Lavoie – but I could see them bringing in a player to compete with Pederson/Lavoie for 12F – signed in that league min range and/or PTO.
I mean, Pius Suter is a pretty good hockey player. I’d risk Lavoie potentially being waived to add him to the team.
I’ve got no problem with him on a contract within $100K or so of league min to compete for 12F at camp.
With Kostin out, the 5 extra inches and 25 extra pounds Lavoie has on Suter is something.
I guess.
Suter plays C, which would keep Ryan on the wing with 12 forwards in the lineup.
He’s also only missed 3 games in his 3 NHL seasons and scored at an 81 16-17-33 rate (pro-rating due to Covid shortened 20-21). Only 6 of his 87 career points have come on the PP.
He also penalty kills, and quite well actually.
It’s hard to imagine Lavoie having that kind of impact, isn’t it?
Edit:
I should add that all his 5v5 relative on ice numbers are positive (last season and over his career). He’s a good hockey player.
Martian@LalimesMartian
Andy Strickland on Cam and Strick today said it’s likely “5 players” will be facing NHL suspensions for their involvement in the 2018 WJC sexual assault scandal. Said he knows the names but won’t say them now.
“Some significant names”
TOtal speculation but I wonder if this is a reason that Comtois hasn’t been signed yet…….
What is the value to anyone of you posting that type of total speculation on here?
Interesting coincidence that apparently McLeod and Bouchard were cart buddies in Hyman’s tournament yesterday. Wonder if they discussed their contract negotiations?
I think they’ve been hanging out pretty much all summer – they were together at the Lake just a few days ago (with Foegele). I have no doubt they’ve been discussing the negotiations.
McLeod is $2.1MM both year – he didn’t get it back-loaded to increase his next QO (as he’ll still be an RFA).
The Hollands did well here.
Me likely. Oilers are looking strong going into the season.
Lowetide
@Lowetide
And so it was, that on August 1 in the year of our lord 2023, thousands and thousands of Oilers fans flocked to their favourite custom roster simulators in order to find a way to make $6.1 million less than $5.6 million.
Holland already did it. Enjoy watching the Canucks miss the playoffs yet again…..
i have bit checked his math but Sid is staring they could have Lavoie and a 22nd player at league min if Bouch comes in at $3.4MM.
Bouch is likely a bit higher but, either way, I think 21 with a bit of daily accrual is best. Every banked dollar helps.
So, $4,282,500 in cap left. $4,183,375 if Lavoie is the 12th forward.
Will be curious what Bouchard’s number is. And also whether he’s an ‘idiot’ and signs for 2 years.
I presume that includes Broberg on and Niemo off? I ask because CF has that opposite which isn’t likely reality.
Yes, 100%. Agree Niemo over Broberg is very unlikely.
https://twitter.com/TSNRyanRishaug/status/1686543642629193731?s=20
2 x just over 2M aav for Highlander according to Rishaug. Awesome if true!
Yeah that would be solid!
2×2.1M confirmed
https://twitter.com/PuckPedia/status/1686548432532721664?s=20
And by the Oilers too now. $2.1M both years.
Oiler Alert@OilerAlert·1h
“I think they’re close on Bouchard. Within $100k is my guess.”
“I would not be surprised if the McLeod situation is resolved by Friday.”
@Bob_Stauffer on #OilersNow
Stauff has been adamant that Bouch will be 2 years (which is great for the Oil as a one-year deal, while saving some dollars this season, would be an issue next season). I presume its in the $3.75MM – $3.9MM range.
McLeod has a real case for at least $2.25MM X 2 in arb, if not a bit higher – given Kusharev.
I think McLeod may come in at one-year to keep the AAV down. 1 X $1.9MM or 2 X $2.25MM (if settled pre-arb).
Just my opinion, but I think the award would come in a shade below Kurashev if it went to the hearing (on a 2-year deal, with 1 year obviously being lower again).
Hot damn I’ll take $2.1MM
$2.0M would have been nice.
Then McLeod could have been exactly half the player Ross Colton is.
Friday is the date for the arbitration hearing so the situation will be resolved one way or the other.
Way to go out on a limb there Bobby. haha
Hehe. I guess he means before though. If it goes to a hearing it will be out of team/player hands, but wouldn’t actually be resolved until the decision on Sunday.
Oiler Alert@OilerAlert·1h
On #OilersNow, @frank_seravalli mentioned that he thinks 12-16 teams were interested in Connor Brown.
He also told Stauffer he would handicap Draisaitl re-signing at upwards of 70% and picked EDM as his ‘way too early’ 2024 Stanley Cup Champions.
I’m curious to see what Jay’s audit on everything brings about this season
Yes, presumably there will be some changes.
The mixing of golf metaphors is confusing me. I assume that in this context, a high handicap is good? i.e. Seravelli is guessing the chance of Drai signing is > 70%?
I’ll be honest, 70% is actually lower than I’d expect.
Yes, presumably his belief is >70% that Draisaitl will re-sign.
This comment section is just dying for somebody to cherry-pick every link & move the goal posts on every discussion. Like a live-in Tucker Carlson. Anyone know of somebody?
Are you sure your not talking about Don Lemon.
Lol – different sides of the same coin. Only thing they truly care about is their bank accounts; they flip flop from one issue to the next to hawk whatever discourse suits their purpose.
That’s America shock T.V and still to some degree shock Radio sell. For instance that nitwit Howard Stern was the king of jock shock
Howard Stern is the man.
What don’t you understand?
I’ve mentioned it before. And not to OP myself…er..repeat myself(😉). But I’m worried about Desharnais regression. Looked like a 27 year old on a career heater to me. I would love to be wrong however.
I think we have to expect regression from the 63% goal differential in the regular season (expected was closer to 50%, but over).
We can hope for him to develop his “puck skills” but no doubt that is something he’s been trying to do his entire career – how much more room is their to grow in that area.
My personal concern for Vinny is a potential increase in his minor penalty rate. I was shocked at how much stick work he got away with last season, in particular as a rookie and such a menacing dude).
WIth the likely increase focus on cracking down on stick work early in the season, I think Vinny needs to learn to exact punishment with his body, more than his stick.
There might be some negative regression given he was on a heater last season but there should be some positive development in there somewhere.
For me, he’s the clear 7D – we know that 7th D will play plenty but I think he’s a pretty solid option for the 7D.
Regular season
GF% 62.5
xGF% 53.6
Playoffs
GF% 36.4
xGF% 57.3
Combine the regular season and playoffs and the real/expected pretty much evens out:
GF% 55.8
xGF% 54.4
And Desharnais has a fair bit of room to regress before there’s an actual problem.
I’d agree that Desharnais will likely be reasonably good (especially for the price) next season. There is lots of cover as Broberg can play right and we have 5 other D (Niemelainen, Kemp, Dineen, Gleason, Hoefenmeyer) that could step up to a 7D role but not much reason to think Desharnais can’t play at that level again.
Desharnais is not a everyday D-man play him against heavy teams not against speedy teams like New Jersey. It’s the Coaches job to put players in a position to succeed.
Elliotte Friedman
Arbitrator decision for Jeremy Swayman is $3.475M
Elliotte Friedman
·
Jul 28
Arbitration filings for Boston and Jeremy Swayman — team: $2M, player: $4.8M
That leaves the Bruins with $429K cap space with a 22 man roster but, man do they ever need a centre.
A bit of chatter they may go after JT Millier from the Canucks and he might waive his NTC to go to the Bruins.
The chatter never seems to include what the Bruins might send back though.
Their draft picks for next year are pretty much already spent & I don’t see how they can send the money from their current roster.
EDIT: Not sure how I missed that this signing was old news. I’ll blame it on my age. 🥸
Would be money in/money out.
Miller $8 million
Carlo $4.1 million Debrusk $4 million.
Just one deal that’s been discussed.
That is a very bad trade for Boston imo.
They’re desperate.
Charlie Coyle can’t be a #1C
Yes but two pretty good 26 year olds for a 30 year old with a lot of miles on him is a firing offence imo. They need to aim higher and this might just have to be the year they have to pay the piper for having stretched the window a little too long.
There are certainly other options.
Lindholm 28
Schiefele 30
But either would require significant assets out.
But the way their roster is set up they almost have to go for it again.
Marchand is 35, Coyle 31, Lindholm 30, Grzlyek 29, Ullmark 30 and very little in the pipeline.
Absolutely… positively… screwed…
Ignore any and all hot starts. They were mostly goalie for 2/3’s last season.
Pastrnak might not crack 30…
5 goaltenders who should rebound.
https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/five-nhl-goalies-primed-to-rebound-in-2023-24
Campbell should be on that list.
Of course he’s not on the list. If he were, we would not be seeing the list.
Yes and not sure there’s that much recovery in Markstrom. If he couldn’t post a decent save percentage in Sutter’s system, I’m not sure it’s going to be anything other than marginally better this year. That and the Oilers broke him mentally.
I would say so Quick was the second coming of Tretiak under Sutter and Rickibear Hockey.
There must be a reason McKenna didn’t include him.
Always assume incompetence before looking for conspiracy.
Machiavelli
McKenna is pretty reliable.
Damn. I might need to frame that.
I like how anything you read on the internet posted by anyone, you give them the benefit of the doubt about their findings, except when it comes to this site where you challenge everyone about everything.
Some guy on twitter named “kush42069” who works at McDonalds could post MacKinnon is a better goaltender than Jack Campbell and if anyone here said that is ridiculous, you would reply “there must be a reason why he said this. If you disagree then post all of your analytic models proving otherwise!”
Pretty sure McKenna never worked at MacDonalds.
About. 14 year professional hockey goaltender (NHL, AHL, ECHL) now working for Daily Faceoff provide streaming, written, and podcast content across multiple web-based platforms. Post-playing career I spent two seasons as TV Analyst for the Vegas Golden Knights.
McKenna thinks Campbell is streaky – which he is. That is pretty much the definition of him having a bounce back year after last season.
Problem is…you never know when a streak will begin or end.
Which is why it is important to have a steady guy like Skinner as the second guy. I still maintain that Campbell is better than Skinner when they are both at their best but Skinner is still improving and may make Campbell redundant after this upcoming year. My hope is that Campbell’s year makes him tradeable in some fashion next summer.
Exactly. If SKinner holds the net and Campbell rebounds , we could swap him out for a perfectly fine backup/1B at around 2M or so. That would make next year a real opportunity to load up elsewhere on the roster!
He was ready to go streaking against Vegas after Skinner started leaking Goals under Vegas pressure. I’ll never forgive Woody for sticking with Skinner when anyone not wearing blinders could see Vegas had his number.
You have also posted stuff written by random nobodies who aren’t in the industry.
You have even posted stuff written by fake accounts which resulted in some timeouts for you.
Because at the end of the day, it’s not about the discussion, it’s about whatever anti-Oilers narrative you are trying to push.
Like meanashell said, if the article had Campbell as a rebound candidate, you would not have shared it.
He posted a tweet from a fake Friedman account 3 weeks ago and was never timed out. Next infraction, 2 weeks.
It looks like Mckenna took a “safe” approach to his list. None of those 5 are on a team where another goalie had an up year and all but Nedeljkovic are on a team where they are the de facto number one. He essentially picked goalies who would both likely play lots and outplay their backup even in a bad year. Campbell is in a much tougher spot to do that vs Skinner than vs a Vladar, Daccord, Blackwood, or Martin.
Campbell should rebound but since Skinner has had 3 decent years in a row so he could end up playing less than half the games anyways.
Samorukov signs an AHL deal with the Penguins.
https://theahl.com/samorukov-signs-ahl-deal-with-penguins
Smart move by Dubas.
Playing third line center in the NHL is a tough assignment.
There is a reason some identify the 3C as part of the “core 12” of a hockey team.
The Oilers have been looking for an effective 3C for a long long time.
We (or at least I) have had hope that Ryan McLeod would become the long time 3C and, hot damn, if he hasn’t turned in to that in real time.
I think he’s a legit 3C. The numbers show an increasing ability to play against the opposition’s elite and do well. In fact, I think that McLeod should take some of the “tough minutes” from Drai to give Drai some clean air at evens.
I think that McLeod with Foegele and either Holloway or Ryan should be a high end third line that can play tough minutes.
I don’t think the coaching staff has trusted McLeod against elites enough – they gave Bjugstad minutes that McLeod should have received – in the playoffs it took Woody too long to shift to McLeod for Eichel minutes.
Part of that is likely McLeod being hurt twice last season.
McLeod is going to soar high this season if he can stay healthy.
I don’t want to pay him $2.5MM per but, alas, if he does get such a deal I won’t be overly concerned as he’ll be value for it over the course of the next two seasons.
Bouchard is signing for two year – Stuaffer is 100% sure of that (so he says). McLeod may come in at one year to reduce the AAV.
We’ve needed a shutdown line for years and it could be put together cheaply. Rem Murray, Stoll, Horcoff before the huge contract these types of players. Give McLeod 2 other defensive first wingers who can be had quite cheaply. Tell this line they have one job shutdown the opposition toughies without taking penalties. This will limit tough minutes for Leon and Connor who will be fresher to end the game. This checking line will be on the ice when the opposition is down by 1 with the open net this will be prime time do not allow a Goal and your Carrot will be some easy Goals and points in the open net for the shutdown line.
Increasingly, teams are going to 3 scoring lines and trying to outscore with depth.
For example, Vegas is running William Karlsson as 3C and he managed 53 points +14 playing with a couple of very speedy wingers.
Breaking news from HH on the scene: ‘Teams are increasingly trying to have more talented players than the other team.’
Back to you at the station
Breaking news…
NHL teams are increasingly going power vs, power with their top lines rather than employing the old timey dedicated shut down line.
Some of these teams are the most successful in the league as their scoring depth eventually overpowers those stuck in the past.
Film at 11.
This is true, you need a 3rd line that can outscore. Dedicating a 3rd line to only playing defensive hockey is folly. Alas, McLeod is capable of playing the toughs and putting up some points. On this team you don’t need a 50 point 3C and I could easily see McLeod in the 40 point range.
Did you not watch the Vegas series. Woody had his ass handed to him on line match-ups and starting line-ups.
Weren’t you lauding LA for not doing the power vs power thing and saying them having their lines splitting icetime equally was the way forward?
For most of the season, Karlsson, Marchessault and Smith were the second line for the Vegas Golden Knights and that is with whom he got a lot of those points. Once Barbashev arrived, that is when Karlsson and Smith became more like a line 2B with a couple of different wingers (more than typical 3rd line ice time). Karlsson was still 6th on the team in 5 on 5 TOI for forwards in the playoffs and got some of his playoff points playing with Marchessault and Barbashev and not just Smith.
It will be interesting to see, with Smith gone now, how Karlsson does on the “3rd line” or if that is even where he plays most of the season. Will Howden or Roy stay in the their top 6? Vegas had the luxury of Smith and Karlsson being part of a 3rd line in the playoffs due solely to the “luck” of cap circumstances similar to Tampa’s depth up front in 2021
Centre TOI/GP in the regular season:
Stephenson 19:01
Eichel 18:46
Karlsson 17:28
Roy 16:18
Pretty obvious Vegas was running 3 scoring lines.
Playoffs:
Eichel 19:00
Stephenson 18:20
Karlsson 17:21
Roy 15:01
Yes you could call the Karlsson the 2B line but that is exactly the point.
Ryan McLeod 14:36
Ryan McLeod: 1.86 P/60, 74.07 IPP
William Karlsson: 1.84 P/60, 70.21 IPP
Point taken.
Playoffs:
McLeod 0 goals 5 assist
Karlsson 11 goals 6 assists.
One of these is not like the other.
Edmonton is put together differently they have 2 stacked lines. If they had a shutdown line to give these lines fresh clean B.C air ( unless your in a Osoyoos) Bob’s your Uncle even with less minutes. I believe the Qaulity of these 2 lines would increase production a staggering 15-20% 5 on 5 scoring.
Dallas is another example and they’ve doubled down with the acquisition of Duchene to play 3C.
A line of Marchment-Duchene-Seguin could do some real damage.
This is Dallas’ “all-in year.”
Once they fire this bullet they’ll join Colorado, Nashville, LA, Winnipeg, Calgary and Seattle as also rans.
Oilers and Vegas as far as the eye can see. And I’ll put my money on the guys more talented everyday.
Weakest link is not to be discounted in how series are determined either.
For me the playoffs are when the influence of coaching becomes most important.
They have the time and the info to target the areas most likely to break.
We’ll see.
Dallas has two blue chip forward prospects on the way in Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankhoven and given their track record of drafting impact players, they can’t be discounted.
The Benn contract expires after two more seasons and that will free up $9.5 million in cap space.
They have a dominant top line, an elite #1D and one of the best goaltenders in the league…all young and impact players.
Dont see them falling back anytime soon.
If Bourque is a blue chip prospect, you must also have high hopes for Bourgault. They’re trending on the same path.
In fact, they were teammates with Shawinigan.
Bourque scored 68 points in 31 games in his final season in the Q.
Bourgault scored 75 in 43 games.
Bourque scored 20 goals and 47 points in his first AHL season.
Bourgault 13 goals and 34 points in Bakersfield.
It would seem Bourque is a bit ahead but he’s also 10 months older so likely very close.
Dallas is a hard team to play against they’ll always be a threat who can knock off anyone in a given series.
You’ve mentioned less than one full line worth of players and that’s not counting Hintze at peak probably last year. But I’ll go through it all in a second.
Stankhouse and Borque are pipsqueaks. Neither have played NHL games heading into draft plus 3… double yawn.
Hintze is at peak right now and based on timing his contract will slide right into the Benn spot of Boat Anchor right as Jamie hangs up his blades. Marchment is also at peak and sorta really didn’t deliver last year.
After that at forward you have the further erosion/retirement of – Pavelski, Seguin, Dadonov, Faska and Duchene. Thanks to all the inflated contracts they’ve signed it’ll be tricky to swing deals for non-over the hill vets to replace these over the hill vets.
On defense you have Heiskanen yes and then a whole lot of meh aging rapidly and meh coming up behind.
You see a contender that won’t slip back. I quite easily and without strain see the Canucks or Flames 2.0 in rapid order. This is their last year. Re-build city Calgary style afterwards.
This looks like a really decent checking line first with a threat to score. Does it not?
I liked Boyd Gordon. Unsung solid shutdown NHL player in the depths of the DoD. Guy was everything we wanted Belanger to be. Too bad the rest of the team was cabbage.
Perfect example you have your shutdown Centre who you pay decently and you can always find bargains on defensive first wingers.
I’m not sure if the “checking/shut-down 3rd line” exists in the same way that it used to.
In this day and age, that 3rd line needs to be able to produce to some extent, more of a 2-way type line. Sure, the focus can be on preventing goals against – all lines should be focused somewhat on preventing.
McLeod is such a high end transition guy – zone exit, carry through and zone entry – that right there makes him an defensive “shut-down” center.
For me, any two of Holloway, Foegele, Ryan and Brown flanking McLeod should be a very effective 2-way third line.
Wow, if Mavrik Bourque is “blue-chip” then Oilers fans should be pretty excited about the categorizing of Dylan Holloway and Xavier Bourgault.
Like I posted already Oilers are built differently they are unique in how top heavy they are. Think outside the box it’s like the mini skirt someday it’ll be back in vogue.
Desharnais has already achieved what only 5100 hockey players have ever done and played 36 games in the NHL. Playing 12 playoff games is an even more exclusive list. And he has battled long odds to get there at 26/27. But if that NHL journey is to continue, the next step is pretty tough too.
Will he be able to react to the fact that The best players in the world will now have a book on him and know what his strengths and weaknesses currently are. What his skills are currently showed good results for his debut last season, but he will need to keep learning to stay around for a meaningful career. I am not sure how much more upside he has at this point.
The same could be said about all third pair defensemen. That’s because they are 3rd pair. Basically, all they can do is their best and that’s all that can be expected. Just keep your head above the water.
Brett Kulak so far in his career is pretty much a 3rd pair defenseman, but he is pretty established and players have had a book on him for years. I was referring more to those players that are sophomores and in Desharnais’ case, a sophomore who is 27.
Doubt him at your own peril. He’s heard it all before.
I am not doubting him. I said I don’t know how much more upside he has. Could be a little, might be more. What I am more sure about is he will need to improve to stay. And it would also be fair to say his upside is probably a lot less than Broberg’s who is in the same spot.
Okay, doubt his upside at your own peril. Your points are fair.
A cheap 3rd pair RD with solid fancies across the board, massive size, decent skating, just entering his prime years, and acquired with a 7th round pick. Great story, I hope he’s an Oiler for the next 3-4 years (after he hits 30 someone else can go ahead and pay him too much money), and helps us win a few Cups.
It’s pretty simple to me, it comes down to skating like always. His size and aggressiveness helps him. He’s not puck optional. But at the end of the day like any top league a half step behind because of processor or boots doesn’t cut it
He has a bit of a Scott Mayfield in him IMHO. RHS, big, nasty, decent skater and passer, late bloomer. We will know more about him this time next year. Impossible to project as he’s so far off a typical development curve. Unique guy.
the nuge! those numbers are insane, across the board!
also, some of these numbers suggest that we’re going to miss Yammy. A shame about those concussions — he’s going to be an absolute bargain for the Kraken if he can stay healthy.
One encouraging thing about the Vegas series is that the Knights weren’t able to stop the freight train that was Edmonton’s historical powerplay.
Is it fair to say the slash turned the series?
Yes and I’m still pissed off.
Vegas circumvented the cap and then got the DOPS special treatment — I will never respect that 2023 Cup win.
In other words, it was the most Vegas cup win possible. Cheating, dirty. Just needs a mobster to complete the stereotype. Pietrangelo kinda sounds Italian.
Yes. But it didn’t change the effectiveness of the PP.
100% the slash turned the series. We appeared to be taking it over at that point, but didn’t seem to know how to respond and it seemed to rattle the team. Nevermind the possibility that Leon wasn’t as effective in the final two games due to lingering effects. Oilers were less physical after that point and likely worried about taking a bad penalty. Not to mention the inequity of Nurse and Petro both getting a game and how that likely played into the outcome in game’s 5 and 6. If Petro got an extra game (either 1-0 or 2-1) to Nurse, I’d expect we would have at worst split those two games.
Not just that, but they played the Jets, Stars and Panthers, and the players still say their toughest series was against the Oilers.
Trent Frederic and the Bruins reach a 2x$2.3M agreement
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/trent-frederic-signs-two-year-4-6m-deal-with-bruins-avoids-arbitration/
CapFriendly
@CapFriendly
Only four (4) players who filed for arbitration remain unsigned.
BOS – Jeremy Swayman (awaiting arbitrators decision)
ANA – Troy Terry – Aug 2
EDM – Ryan McLeod – Aug 4
PIT – Drew O’Connor – Aug 4
Frederic is a natural centre who may be called on to play 3C now that Boston has lost two pivots.
Will this contract inform a decision on Ryan McLeod?
Maybe. He is two years older than McLeod and had a much better season offensively.
Frederic scored 17G 31P in 79 GP.
McLeod 11G 23P in 57GP.
Actually pretty close in P/GP
Not sure an arbitrator would take that into account.
They started out at 2x$1.4M from the team and 1x$2.9M from Frederic. Boston got their 2nd year and Frederic got a little more than the midpoint in their filings.
When do they publish the player and team asks?
Two days before, I think.
Yes the submissions of both evidence and proposed terms are required 48 hours before the hearing. Sometimes the reporting of those submissions can be spotty. While tweets from guys like Friedman show the $ amount, they sometimes don’t show the term. If they are aware of the term, it would be odd that they don’t include it, since it is an important part of the equation. I am not sure if there is an official site accessible to the public where $$ and terms submitted are shown.
And once submitted, I think that signals the hearing process has officially started and the parties can no longer settle. For sure, they can’t settle between the actual hearing and the award. If that is the case, if the Oilers and McLeod don’t settle by tomorrow, they will be making their submissions and will be committed to the arbitrator’s decision (since there is zero chance the award will exceed the limit allowing the Oilers to reject it) and we should get to see both parties ask.
They can settle at any time before the hearing starts.
https://www.capfriendly.com/arbitration
Thanks. I thought I had read somewhere that the submission of evidence signaled some official start of proceedings, but the 2020 MOU is pretty specific that the cutoff is the start of the in person hearing. So I guess there is still a chance they can settle after they go public with their arbitration numbers (depending on how different they are to what the 2 sides have been discussing to date).
They used to be able to settle after the hearing and before the verdict (like PK Subban did) but they’ve since decided that if you have the hearing, you have to get the verdict.
I am concerned with Desharnais as well. I cannot put my finger on it and I know the numbers just scream that he makes a difference but I just felt he was hanging on by his fingertips last season.
he lost confidence as other teams got tape on him. that said, after his blistering start he was bound to regress. he has the summer to watch tape and learn and i expect we see some improvement in the areas where he was being exposed later in the season. if he’s proven anything over his career is that he’s coachable and works on his craft.
RD has to be the position of most concern for Holland going into this season.
Ceci – was it just health last year?
Broberg – does he keep making steps?
Bouchard – will his defence be good enough to justify the money his offence will require?
Desharnais – was last season a one off?
There are reasons to be optimistic but it is the position that comes with the most questions going into the season.
Goaltending ?