Back in the 2015 training camp, Oilers prospect Anton Slepyshev received a lot of play as a possible top-six winger on the NHL team. The new coach (Todd McLellan) and general manager (Peter Chiarelli) were looking for a big man with skill on the wing. It came down to Slepyshev versus Leon Draisaitl for an opening night shot. You know what? Slepyshev won.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: The 5 most impressive NHL offseason moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
None of it mattered, of course. Leon Draisaitl spent six games in Bakersfield, got the recall around Halloween and spent the rest of the year settin’ the woods on fire. Meanwhile, Anton Slepyshev made the Oilers, but played just 11 games. Always bet on the first round pick, and especially the No. 3 overall selection. I wrote the following about each man on October 15, 2015, a next day review of the previous night’s game:
- Leon Draisaitl was quiet to my eye, might have had something to do with that shot off his foot (foot? leg? tree trunk?) early in the game. I believe he’s earned an NHL position but we’ll have to see.
- Anton Slepyshev had another solid night, damn near cashed on a nifty exchange with Taylor Hall. He’s in the right place at the right time. He’s physical, in the game (three shots last night) and getting chances. Todd McLellan mentioned last night he liked the young Russian’s game. When does he fade?
Slepyshev played a bunch with Connor McDavid and Taylor Hall, had five shots on goal and an assist in about 30 on-ice minutes five-on-five during preseason. Credit to McLellan, he played Slepyshev opening night and the line won the shot share (4-2 in 7:45 with a HDSC) but the other big line (Nuge with Benoit Pouliot and Teddy Purcell) got fed (0-2 goals, 2-9 shots, 1-3 HDSC). He was soon with Mark Letestu and Luke Gazdic.
DYLAN HOLLOWAY
Dylan Holloway received a similar push one year ago. His offensive output in preseason (4-1-5 at five-on-five over 65 minutes) was a major story during the exhibition season. He scored 1-1-2 in 22 minutes five-on-five with Leon Draisaitl, and scored a hat trick on October 3 against Vancouver with Leon as his center and Zach Hyman on the other wing.
Opening night? Ryan McLeod and Derek Ryan were his linemates.
The 2015-16 Oilers were in a different spot than last year’s club. Audition time could run well into the season back then, the Oilers trying to backfill behind Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Taylor Hall. Here, let’s run the basic numbers for the rookies and young players not yet established at the beginning of the season.
That’s a very long list of young men trying to establish themselves in the NHL. The top performers were Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Brandon Davidson and Anders Nilsson.
Slepyshev didn’t score (1 assist in 11 games) and was the devil’s own at five-on-five events based on expected goals. One year later, he would score 1.34 pts-60 at five-on-five (still low) and improved his expected goal share in the discipline to 43 percent (still shitty). Now, let’s look at the far less populated 2022-23 list and Holloway’s totals.
Far fewer names and no McDavid or Draisaitl or even Nurse here. However, there is talent. Stuart Skinner had a fantastic rookie season, and two defensemen (Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais) showed well enough to project as regulars well into the future.
Holloway isn’t an established player yet, and we don’t have proof he’s going to be able to establish himself as an NHL top-six forward. I think he will, but it’s not guaranteed. The season doesn’t turn on Broberg and Holloway stepping up, but it’s a big damn deal.
Oiler Alert@OilerAlert·6h
Jeff Jackson on The Bob McCown podcast sheds light on his role as #Oilers newest CEO:
“Making sure we’re competitive for the next 5-10 yrs [by] putting in innovative processes-whether it’s improving the analytics dept, the sports science dept, things to prevent injuries..”
Lavoie has some tools. Lots of guys have tools. Really must be a boring summer to spent so much time on a guy with such a thoroughly mediocre career to this point (aside from a few short bursts here and there). His numbers suggest Brad Isbister or a 4th line face puncher – but he’s not inclined for the latter role – good for him to be honest. Reality is that he probably gets a first and 2nd NHL opinion in the coming seasons and ends up in Europe after that. Doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who wants to wander the streets of Bakersfield, Utica or Scranton when Switzerland or Italy beckons.
What a Debbie Downer at least give the man a chance. Many a big men take time look no further than Pat Maroon who I would take on my team any day over a 150 pound scared shitless skilled jackrabbit who plays on the perimeter.
The thing about Lavoie that is extremely intriguing is his shot is a real weapon. Not sure who has a better shot between Lavoie, Savoie and Petrov, but these guys have elite shooting ability. Not sure how many organizations can say they even have one prospect like that, let alone 3.
During his draft year Lavoie scored 20 goals in 24 playoff games while in Halifax. These numbers are elite and ranks him in the upper echelon of 18 YO QMJHL playoff goal scorers in the history of the league.
If Pat Maroon could score 49 goals in basically 2 seasons with 97 (and 42 goals in 5+ seasons since), I am sure folks in the org are thinking of the possibilities that Lavoie could offer in a similar role.
Good post from JP that didn’t get its due share of feedback.
19-20
Julien Gauthier – 6’4″ 227 153 14-18-32 in the NHL as of age 25 (Oct. birthday)
-> 4rth liner getting his 4rth opinion. Played for Carolina, Ottawa, and the Rangers. Now has a contract with the Islanders.
Nicolas Roy —– 6’4″ 207 228 40-54-94 in the NHL as of age 26 (Feb. birthday)
–>Cup ring, the class of this group.
18-19
AJ Greer ——— 6’3″ 205 108 7-13-20 in the NHL as of age 26 (Dec. birthday)
–> 4rth line grinder. on his 3rd NHL team. played 61 games last year on a deep Boston team.
16-17
JJ Khaira ——— 6’4″ 212 336 33-47-80 in the NHL as of age 28 (Aug. birthday)
–>4rth line grinder we all know.
Oskar Sundqvist 6’3″ 209 355 53-73-123 in the NHL as of age 29 (Mar. birthday)
–>On his 4rth team. 4rth line grinder
Zach Sanford — 6’4″ 207 305 49-49-98 in the NHL as of age 28 (Nov. birthday)
–>One time 16 goal scorer. 28 y/o on his 5th NHL team.Played mostly in AHL last season
15-16
Brett Richie —– 6’4″ 220 391 50-35-85 in the NHL as of age 30 (July birthday)
–> 4rth line grinder. One time 16 goal scorer. On his 4rth NHL team.
13-14
Carl Klingberg — 6’3″ 216 12 1-0-1 in the NHL as of age 32 (Jan. birthday)
–> Bust
12-13
Thomas Vincour 6’3″ 220 95 7-10-17 in the NHL as of age 32 (Nov. birthday)
–> Looks mostly like a bust though he did play some NHL games across 4 seasons.
Joe Colborne — 6’5″ 220 295 42-72-114 in the NHL as of age 33 (Jan. birthday)
–> At the top end of this group. Career just shy of Leon Draisaitl, but did score 19 goals and 44 points one season.
11-12
Eric Tangradi — 6’4″ 227 150 5-11-16 in the NHL as of age 34 (Feb. birthday)
–> 4rth line grinder. didn’t last long in NHL
Jimmy Hayes — 6’5″ 216 334 54-55-99 in the NHL as of age 33 (Nov. birthday)
–> One time 19 goal season. Over 300 NHL games. Pretty good career.
Out of this group, lots of players have stops in different cities. Mostly 4rth line grinders though Hayes, Colbourne and Roy have had good careers.
Only 2/12 were outright busts (Klingberg and Vincour).
Some facepuchers in the group including JJ, Greer, and Brett Richie
A few of these guys peaked early with some decent goal scoring then fizzled out quick like Richie, Sanford and Hayes.
I received a week suspension early this year for quoting a post from a previous thread in to the new thread……
I had missed that. I’m not sure what the context was? Was it an argument?
I hope that I haven’t offended LT in this instance.
Nope: reason I was given was a strict prohibition on bringing prior day’s posts to the new blog.
The post I brought forward was explicitly on the same topic as that day’s blog post but it was a strict liability offence.
This was a good post. I think Lavoie has higher upside than all, given his elite shot.
We wait….
Per Stauffer:
Down in Red Deer for the Battle of Alberta Golf Tournament for the Central Alberta Child Advocacy Centre
Hearing that Brandon Sutter, 34, 6’3” right shot center…who hasn’t played the last couple of seasons…
Will be coming to @EdmontonOilers Training Camp on a PTO
Yeah that’s a surprising one.
He had back issues right? Guess he’s feeling better after 2 years of rest. Was a pretty good player when healthy (and younger).
Oh, long COVID is what caused him to retire. And he’s been interested in returning to play for some time. Article from March.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/after-long-covid-derailed-career-brandon-sutter-finally-has-hope-he-could-play-again/
So Sutter’s injury list just with Vancouver includes: sports hernia surgery, broken jaw, groin, shoulder separation, another sports hernia surgery, shoulder again, and then long COVID. And that’s just the big stuff (listed on Wikipedia).
As much as I hated the Sutter Clan playing for the Islanders, Flyers and being in Flames organization they don’t come any tougher than that family unless of course their neighbours are Bull riders.
The Oilers just re-tweeted this, so presumably that’s confirmation that it’s legitimate.
I recall Sutter being an exceptional PK guy so there is that but, really, if Pederson and Lavoie both can’t beat this guy out for 12F……
I’m OK with bringing any player in on a PTO and the Oilers will need 2-3 for exhibition lineup reasons. Remember they are playing like 8 exhibition games again, we know the likes of Drai/McDavid/Ek/Nurse/etc. will only play 2-3 and there is a “min veteran” rule for each game.
That is the reason Virtanen played so many games last season and Sutter will fill this role and the org does the kid (and his family) a favor giving him a chance to skate and see if he can play and if another team might take a flyer on him.
Meh
Yeah, he’s a major long shot for sure. You never know though, maybe the 2 years off did his body good.
I also don’t think they bring in PTOs as pure favors, who they think have no chance of making the team.
Certainly also possible Sutter ends up in Bakersfield as Demers did last year.
Bear in mind Bakersfield can only dress a maximum of 6 vets per game. These are players with 360 or more pro games.
Current vets:
1-Brad Malone
2-Drake Caggiula
3-Seth Griffith
4-Greg McKegg
5-Cam Dineen
6-Ben Gleason
7-Calvin Pickard
Hmmmm…more games potentially for Rodrigue and Fanti….
I can see Sutter getting games, but you’d think the Wranglers might have more appeal due to proximity to home…
Good points about the veterans already in Bakersfield, and proximity to home.
He’s not bad at faceoffs which is key
The most improved teams this offseason:
1) Pittsburgh – Dubas’ deal sheds several bad contracts and adds an impact player, all for the cost of a 1st and 2nd. Ryan Graves and Reilly Smith are great additions too. Glad to see a Penguins re-ignited.
2) Columbus – Two top-4 defensemen get them out of the league’s bottom-5.
3) Detroit – DeBrincat and depth moves get them closer, but probably not into the playoffs.
4) Carolina – Orlov, Bunting, and DeAngelo. All Tulsky does is make his team better.
5) Dallas – Duchene on an extreme value contract
New Jersey
Full season Timo Meier
Full season Luke Hughes
Tyler Toffoli
Tomas Nosek
Likely addition of Simon Nemec
Fast, deep forward group
Verging on best D corp in the league
When all the teams getting better are from the same division does anyone get better? The Pens gambit is gorgeous. Bring three of the best players in their generation together and let them run. It would be fun to meet them in the Final.
Meanwhile in the Pacific everyone else has gotten demonstrably worse aside from Vegas and the Oilers. No actual threats in the central now that Colorado is one annual MacKinnon injury away from the shallowest forward corps among playoff teams. Didn’t take them long to screw that up. Dallas is laughably old and will peak before February.
Everyone else is laughable in the West. Its the Oilers and Vegas show for the next ten months.
The average age of the Dallas roster is 28.7…the Oilers 27.9…hardly significant.
The Stars came within two games of the final last season and have added a significant piece in their top 6 without losing anyone.
Mavrik Bourque and Logan Stankhoven could be significant additions and bring their average age down further.
Right, because which players are which age isn’t relevant when comparing.
Let’s start from the top with players in their prime, Draisaitl is about a year older than Hintz and McDavid is 2 years older than Jason Robertson. Between those 4 players not a GM in the NHL would take the Dallas duo to lead their team over the Edmonton duo for the next 5 years and that is not debatable so their relative age is a non issue.
After that Dallas Stars have 4 prominent players all older than Evander Kane, the oldest key forward on the Oilers, and a 5th who’s is just a few months younger:(Pavelski 39, Benn 34, Dadanov 34, Duchene 32 and Seguin 31. All of these guys are much further along the aging curve that you talk about frequently than their veteran counterparts on the Oilers Kane, Hyman, Nuge and now Brown.
That leaves them with Marchment 28 who did not follow up his one breakout year very well and Faksa at 29. They have got a few young guys as well like Wyatt Johnson and Dellandrea, but in McLeod and Holloway so do the Oilers.
On the backend, Ryan Suter, at 39 now, was second in the D in TOI. He will be long gone before Ekholm is.
The only position in which Dallas has significant age advantage Dallas has in net, otherwise right now it’s not even close.
Not sure what this rant was triggered by.
Neither team would be considered young and, in fact, their average ages are reasonably close,
The Stars have 7 players under 25 on their roster…the Oilers have 4…5 if Lavoie makes it.
To suggest the Stars are a gerontocracy just isn’t accurate and old man Pavelski seems to be defying aging curves thus far while bumping up their average.
Did you forget about Miro the hero?
Their second line centre is 20.
Specific data points still matter (ie individual ages). There’s an old joke about the statistician who goes duck hunting. He lets loose two shots at the bird, one five feet to the left and one five feet to the right of the bird. Then he jumps up and down claiming on average he GOT one…
I’m listing the most improved teams by offseason moves.
Indeed, Jersey will field a much better team to start the season than they did last, but I would also count LA’s moves (Gavrikov & PLD), and Edmonton (Ekholm) on that list.
Who would you list as the 5 worst teams compared to a season ago? The list has to start with Boston.
Boston for sure.
Nashville
San Jose
Winnipeg
Perhaps Calgary but they might not be done yet.
The big if Stanley Cup Goaltending.
Detroit also added Kostin who’s going to be just what the Doctor ordered for Yzerman and the Wings.
I don’t know about Carolina. They seem to think offense comes from the back end. Great D group on paper (hard to say if DeAngelo helps or hurts overall). Is Bunting the answer to forwards that have trouble scoring? They still only have 2 forwards over 200 lb and one is 34 YO Stall. Lemieux isn’t there for hockey purposes
They have 3 skater prospects 6′ and up, and 1 over 200lbs in the minors including the D. Their analytics likes smaller players. I suppose looking for skill first. Our own team’s experience with a lack of NHL size didn’t work out even with many of them 1OV, top end draft picks, or first rounders.
Tampa that popularized skill first size be damned had success, but not what they wanted in the playoffs. They had Hedman but not a lot of other physically formidable players in size or style. No cups until they added more functional size throughout the line up. To stop teams from running them and trying to intimidate them as the main tactic. Which was working. Like the Canes are finding yearly
If they keep Pesce they are all in as they might be able to re-sign him, but probably can’t unless they move someone else. We’ll see, I don’t think they are doing what needs to be addressed. Maybe they can’t find a deal. If so that’s a GM issue to me, it’s been ongoing for seasons now, and Kotkaniemi, Bunting and JP aren’t really solutions
I’m with you.
I’m not sold on DeAngelo being an add at all. Bunting too, he’s as much a liability as he is a point getter. Orlov sure, he’d be 2nd pair on most teams in the league so the fact he’s penciled in for the 3rd pair is definitely a boost to their D-corps.
Orlov is at worst a #3
I’m not sold on the Hurricanes in terms of their construction for the playoffs, but I think they dominate during the regular season. They have a very very deep team.
What exactly do you mean by very very deep? Offensely they’re quite shallow. Ryan McLeod was 8th on the Oilers for 5v5 P/60, only two Hurricanes forwards scored more than that. If by very very deep you mean they have 1 first line and then 2 third lines, then I agree. But my definition of deep is the Oilers: 2 first lines, 1 second line and 1 fourth line.
The Hurricanes are built on an entirely different premise than the Oilers.
While the Oilers try and outscore their defensive shortcomings, mainly via the PP, the Hurricanes work to prevent goals against.
They had the second best GA/G in the league last season and with Boston losing Bergeron and the Hurricanes adding Orlov, they will likely be the best defensive team in the league.
Worth noting, the Hurricanes had a .689 win percentage last season…the Oilers .665
Have the Hurricanes had more playoff success than the Oilers recently?
Neither have been successful.
Haha, I guess you would have to say that now, wouldn’t you.
But WHAT a regular season, and WHAT a defense!
There is no team that has played more playoff series than the Oilers in the last two seasons.
I believe Florida has (6 to 5), but yes, I know the Oilers are near the top there. Carolina has also played 5.
The Oilers did okay over 82 games outscoring their opponents by 23 goals at 5 on 5 somewhat behind Carolina’s 34 goal advantage. The Oilers got off to a poor start to the season, but from Jan 1 when Woodcroft said they had turned a corner, at 5 on 5, the Oilers were +28 in 44 games (4th overall in the league in that time period 117 for 89 against – which also tied for 3rd in goal share over this period). That was better than Carolina’s +12 in 47 games after Jan 1 with 100 GF and 88 GA.
Edmonton will have Ekholm all year this season too.
As our friend Eric Tulsky recently surmised,the finer you slice data, the less meaning it has but I’ll play along anyway.
The Hurricanes top forward, Andrei Svechnikov, missed the final 18 games of the regular season and the entire playoffs.
What do you think the Oilers record would had looked like if their top forward has been out for a similar period of time?
Carolina will have Orlov all season too,
Using recent history as a guide, that would look like Leon Draisaitl winning the Hart trophy. Again.
So you’re suggesting losing McDavid would have no impact.
Interesting,
I merely pointed to the results from the last time that actually happened.
You’re inferring something other than what I said.
So you’re suggesting that Svechnikov’s absence would be comparable in anyway to McDavid’s absence. That’s not interesting, it’s pathetic.
You repeated yourself with the Orlov comment. It adds nothing further at this point. And I doubt Tulsky would consider you a friend consider how often you butcher hockey analytics or deliberately misuse them.
Jack Campbell himself had -18 goals saved above expected.
It’s crazy to think how much room for improvement there is just from ‘regression’ by Campbell.
Looks like 18.87 GSAx, so at break even the Oilers would have been +88 overall instead of +69. They wouldn’t have moved up from 2nd in the league in goal differential though, because Boston (+125).
That might very well be the case. But it was Edmonton, and not Carolina, who had the 2nd best goal differential in the league last year. Goal differential, not team defense, is the single biggest contributing factor to winning games.
I guess that’s why Edmonton was also 2nd in the league in regulation wins and ROW last year.
As Lowetide keeps saying, these are the last two “impact” players the Oilers will draft in the McDavid area. Well, we hope they are impact players.
Its tough to see Holloway have a floor below high end 2-way 3rd line winger. I don’t think there is any realistic chance this player busts and is just a tweener – injuries aside.
His skating with his body frame, his energy and his motor, his apparent athleticism and coachability, his clear skill, etc. I see an Ethan Moreau floor for this player and prime Ethan Moreau was a very good NHL player.
Can he be a legit top 6 winger or even a complimentary top 6 winger?
I think Connor Brown is holding the 6F spot warm for Holloway – he may have to compete with the likes of Lavoie (if he does translate his offensive skill to the NHL) and Bourgault but Holloway is “first up” and I think he can press Connor Brown early this season.
I think recent history shows us that McLeod/Foegele is a pairing and I would think Holloway is penciled in as the 3rd on that line – Derek Ryan might have some say in that – heck maybe Lavoie does as well but I see Holloway starting as 3LW on a very fast, youthful and energetic 3rd line.
I don’t think Holloway will push Connor Brown, and I think Foegele will probably get the first look if a spot does open up in the top 6.
I agree though that Holloway has a high floor (peak Moreau was a quality player), and that Holloway-McLeod-Foegele line will be the starting 3rd line if the team is healthy.
They aren’t Moreau-Marchant-Grier (I miss Grier), but they’ve got a chance to be that kind of line.
Bouchard is the last impact player drafted in the McDavid era. Broberg and Holloway are not in the same conversation.
You are probably right, but I hope you’re wrong 🙂
Sorry the mis-quote – I recall now – apologies.
No worries. And you were right about Holloway in Game 1. Good catch.
Depends on what you mean by impact. Broberg could be an impact player, even if not a top offensive D. Which can mean an impact player that remains affordable. What I hoped JP would become
Probably depends on the length of the McDavid era in Edmonton. A few drafted players have a chance of becoming impact players by 25/26, but if he extends, that will increase the runway.
Guentzel was drafted by Pittsburgh 8 years after Crosby and became an impact player in the 16/17 playoffs, the end of Crosby’s 12th season and still is today. Matt Murray was drafted 1 year ahead of Guentzel (7 after Crosby)and was their tender in both cup wins as well.
By comparison, Broberg, Holloway and Bourgault were drafted 4, 5 and 6 seasons after McDavid. Plenty of time to for them or some chosen lower to make an impact, if they are not traded.
For the Capitals, they drafted Kuznetnov 6 years after Ovi and Tom Wilson 8 years after. They became impact players 5-6 seasons post their drafts and went on to help Ovi win his cup 14 years post draft (but 13 seasons due to a strike.
Double Jinx. We both posted Ethan Moreau name at exactly 10:57 in two different discussions.
Looks like we did – although your post was in the context of him missing empty nets and mine in the context of him being a very good NHL player in his prime…..
Opening night? Ryan McLeod and Derek Ryan were his linemates.
Not to start, right? Correct me if I’m wrong but he started in the top shift. Yes, one cannot check down any quicker than Woody did after Holloway gave his first puck touch away for a goal against but I believe he started in the top 6 – for a shift.
Lets not forget the lessons learned from last year’s exhibition season: High end production in exhibition season by a skilled prospect means all but nothing as far as translating to regular season production.
I hope like hell that Ralph Lavoie produces 5 goals and 7 points in his 6 exhibition games – that will 100% earn him the opportunity to play regular season games but it wouldn’t mean very much as far as projected regular season production.
Yeah I thought Holloway started with Draisaitl as well. I had not realized his first shot at the top 6 lasted only 58 seconds.
my bet is lavoie gets traded before camp and does pretty well on Habs 3rd line
As I had mentioned before, a Lavoie-Jake Evans trade makes an enormous amount if sense.
What do you think the Oilers would have to add? Evans is obviously a more established player than Lavoie, and the Canadiens would need to retain $700k or something for 2 years.
I suggested a Lavoie/Evans (or, perhaps, but less likely, Down) on here a few weeks back.
I think the player for player trade should be straight up but add a 5th in 2025 for the retention.
Is that what you think is a realistic trade, or just what you would want to pay?
I don’t think a 5th for 2 years of retention is realistic, and I’d be surprised if a 1 for 1 trade did it for the Habs either.
A bit of both. I don’t think Jake Evans at 2 X $1.7MM has any real trade value – limited upside as compared to Lavoie (but less risk as an established NHL player). Its a tweener prospect with upside for an overpaid 4C.
I had a closer look at Evans today and I think you’re selling him short.
He played against ~3rd line comp this year (a bit hard to assess because of Montreal’s injuries) and actually led the team in %TOI vs elites the the year before. 3C is a better description.
His on ice numbers have been pretty good too (relative to team).
He also takes tough zone starts, kills penalties and is good on draws (right shot as well). Not a black hole offensively.
Lavoie’s upside kind of is ‘Jake Evans’.
And I think Evans is appropriately paid. The Oilers would be getting him at a bargain if Montreal retained $700-$850k IMO.
Lavoie’s upside is top 6 scoring winger…….
Upside, ceiling…..
I guess. The thing I did the other day (that Ryan posted tonight) kind of put that to bed for me. I thought it was quite unlikely before, but now even more so.
There’s always a chance, but it looks like a 1% or 2% chance to me. Compared to the chance that Evans is better than Lavoie over the next 2 seasons (something like 75% I’d guess).
Maybe I’m way off. We’d all be happy (I certainly would) if Lavoie ends up being a middle 6 winger for the Oilers.
Klim Kostin came to the Oilers in a trade straight up for Samorukov. Klim Kostin had as much if not more upside potential prior to last season than Lavoie has now. Jake Evans is more valuable than Samorukov even considering salaries. Unless Montreal pays extra to get a French Canadien player, I don’t see a straight up trade happening.
Edmonton could sign Pius Suter or Eric Staal for less than Evans is earning. They would have an off chance of scoring more than Evans’ zero goals at 5v5 last year too…
The Oilers are going to be about internal improvement, this year, so who is going to be better?
B (better) 13, W (worse) 2, N (neutral) 6
Kane (B) – coming off a significant injury.
McDavid (N) – How much better can he get?
Brown – (B) – Improvement over Yamamoto
Hopkins (W) – he had his career year.
Draisaitl (N) – How much better can he get?
Holloway (B) – He is over ripe and ready to play.
McLeod (B) – He is over ripe and ready to play – the next Anthony Cirelli?
Foegele (N) – Good third line guy
Janmark (N) – He will be a fourth line vs third line guy.
Pederson (N) – I am not sure what we have here.
Ryan (N) – He will be a fourth line vs third line guy.
Nurse (B) – Ekholm really helps Nurse’s time against elites.
Ceci (B) – He regressed last year (injury)
Ekholm (B) – Significant upgrade to the Kuluk minutes (huge positive change)
Bouchard (B) – He was really coming on in the back half of the year.
Kuluk (B) – Properly slotted as a third pair dman.
Broberg (B) – 21-year-old is over ripe.
Skinner (W) – He really has a great year to improve upon.
Campbell (B) – He really has a bad year to improve upon.
Woodcroft (B) – Strong hockey mind and getting better.
Holland (B) – He will have more Cap room at the deadline.
Agreed on all but McDavid, who keeps expanding the definition of ‘great’, and Skinner who has all the elements of an elite G, and the sundial is turning…
I think you missed Hyman in there and he would be a “(W)” – although I do think he can be better in the defensive zone – can be, not sure he will be, but I am hoping for a similar commitment to battle that he shows in the offensive zone.
Yeah, they could have a real positive impact if they can step up.
I’ll be curious to see your RE for both players. Today I’ll make my guesses as:
Holloway 75 11-17-28 (solid 3rd line season)
Broberg 64 4-15-19 (solid 3rd pair season)
Pretty big range of outcomes for these two though, in both directions. And of course the possibility of injury as well.
We need a Pat Hughes type someone that does his job well down in the batting order yet has the skill and hands to spot in the top 6 if and when injuries arise. I was hoping Foegele would slow things down and become that 20-25 goal scorer but unfortunately he seems to have the Yakapov bees in the head syndrome.
Yeah I think Foegele is the closest we’ve got currently, with Holloway showing some promise too.
I don’t see a lot of Yakupov in Foegele’s game, and if you adjust for injury and era scoring (1/3 more goals in 1982) he was on pace for 20+ last year. He was quite good when he did play in the top 6 last season too.
Not sure where you are seeing bees, I see a hard working heavy player with Lukewarm hands that can retrieve pucks and keep plays alive.
I thought it was just bad luck the 1st year. Foegele misses glorious chances all the time he panics never seen a Oiler miss so many open nets since Ethan Moreau.
Foegele showed to be exactly that guy last year.
Foegele was actually 6th on the team for 5 on 5 goals and 5th for G/60 and P/60.
Also had really good results in some decent minutes with Drai last season.
I wouldn’t be adverse to starting Foegele at 2RW with Drai and Brown at 3RW although I know that won’t happen (and I also think that McLeod/Foegele as a pairing is a great idea).
Don’t get me wrong I like Foegele he’s close to busting out offensively and then again probably not.
Reja, replying to you as you’re the last one in the list, but it’s to all of us here.
Are we forgetting that Foegele was playing with a screwed wrist for aaaaages last season? That made a material difference to his finishing and I’d posit that we may well have seen a bit of a break out last year if not for that. Fingers crossed that this year is the year and he hits pots 20.
Contract year Foegele coming to an arena near you…..
Usually Reja is all about contract years. 🤷
Big time Mama needs some new shoes. In saying that Foegele kinda lost me with all the missed opportunities and his weak Playoff performance. Darth Tu brings up a excellent post about the nagging sore wrist injury hard to generate any power or finesse with that injury. Any idea what wrist it was?
The Foegele/McLeod/Ryan line was a very effective line in the playoffs – they spend shift after shift after shift in the offensive zone – very unlucky not to pot a few more.
Foegele hurt his wrist in like February – didn’t take a single shot in practice for the last few months of the regulars season (from accounts)
Went for an MRI after the playoffs to determine if surgergy would be needed (I don’t think it was).