Today, I’d like to talk about regression. Zach Hyman (36-47-83 in 79 games), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (82 games, 37-67-104), Connor McDavid (64-89-153 in 82 games) and Leon Draisaitl (52-76-128 in 80 games) all delivered career seasons. One or more of these players will regress. I know you’re staring at Nugent-Hopkins and that makes sense. However, all four could slide a little next season, and one or two could slide a lot. What does that mean for this Oilers team?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: The 5 best pro hockey players not in the NHL
- Lowetide: What Blackhawks can learn from Oilers about winning with a generational talent
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: The 5 most impressive NHL offseason moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
REGRESSION
It doesn’t take much to establish the group that is likely to fall back this winter. Mattias Ekholm is unlikely to deliver as he did after the deadline, as an example. I would never bet against Connor McDavid, but he might reach last year’s totals or slide by a little. I can’t see another 20-goal, 30-point increase again this coming season. The Nuge is extremely likely to regress, I don’t recall a stronger candidate in recent memory among Oilers players. I’m thrilled he had that season, if he’d played in Boston RNH would have won the Lady Byng. He won’t hit 100 points this season.
Evan Bouchard, if he ever signs a damn deal, is a strong candidate for a positive regression. Through his career so far he is averaging 40 points per season. That was his total last year. I expect a major rise in points for Bouchard in the season to come. That’s reasonable.
Philip Broberg isn’t going to get power-play time but should see a boost at even strength and on the penalty kill. He’s a rangy blue with good wheels. His retrievals were a Godsend for Bouchard in the days before Ekholm, I think he could help a player like Cody Ceci or Vincent Desharnais in this area, too. I expect more minutes and more impact from Broberg.
Dylan Holloway is such a good candidate for regression and I think a strong bet for the Oilers this season. His NHLE’s (beginning draft year) are 12.7; 41.6; 26.6 and 33.2. So if he scores 15 goals this coming season? I think he can, although the projections I have are a little shy. Far more than 3-6-9 should be expected.
Jack Campbell is another strong regression candidate. The real issue is that he could recover and still be well below average. Stopping 91 percent of the pucks should be a given for a man with his contract. If he has a poor first half, Oilers are going to have to cut bait. I suspect he’ll play well enough to stay in the league.
Great article
EA Sports goes with Cheryl Pounder to replace Ray Ferraro as colour commentator on NHL 24.
https://thehockeynews.com/news/ea-sports-names-cheryl-pounder-as-new-color-commentator-in-nhl-24
She’s good at her job knows the game and presents it in a followable manner. Her voice is way easier on the ears than Cassie who’s a noise talker when excited.
43 more sleeps until another season of prospecting begins anew.
New names!
New teams!
New obscure towns! (Or at least not used before in this space!)
Same tortured punning!
More exclamation marks!!!!!!!!!!!!
Coverage of the NA amateur septet this season commences with shiny new 2nd-rounder Beau Akey and the Barrie Colts’ season-opener on Thu., Sept. 28.
Thanks for all of your work doing this. It’s really appreciated. I don’t know what I look forward to more… following the prospects or the obscure towns!
i was interested to see raphael lavoie who has been heavily discounted by many as saying he is an afterthought for the organization be mentioned on the oil drop.
asst general manager bill scott says to kenny in the latest episode, we need kids to hit. the raph lavoies, xavier bourgo, carter savoie, matvey petrovs. You need 1 or 2 of these kids to come up.
an interesting comment.
The Oilers could really use a cheap young player or three who can score 10-15 goals, play well defensively, hit a few people and also be an injury call-up
I found the “future right side” of Bouchard, Akey, Wanner comment the most intriguing!
In an offseason where the Pacific got noticeably worse and the Central while not falling as far back is worse than last year folks are going to bet on offensive regression?
Gonna take the over on that one. Going to take the over by a lot.
You keep saying that as if it’s true.
Vegas did not get worse…they’re effectively the same team as last year, but if Eichel (missed 15 games) and Stone (missed 39 games) and Theodore (missed 27 games) are relatively healthy, they should be a load.
We still don’t know what Calgary is going to look like but they should be better without Sutter and the worst 4th line in the league.
LA is also an unknown since it’s hard to judge how well PLD is going to fit but adding a top centre to Kopitar and Danault could pay off huge.
And, of course, adding Brandt Clarke would make any team better…he’s that good.
Vancouver is very interesting even though they don’t look like a real contender.
They’ve totally revamped their D as well as adding two bottom 6 centres in Blueger and Suter which will help stop the bleeding on an historically bad PK from last season and Demko seems to have recovered his mojo after injury.
Not a contender but they should be a tougher out.
And, of course, the road to the cup will run through either Colorado or Dallas both of whom will be better.
Colorado had horrendous injury luck and couldn’t respond due to the uncertainty over Landeskog.
Dallas is objectively the most improved team in the league through a couple of smart additions and were only two games from the final last season.
No one is capable of saying “objectively” who the most improved team is. It’s all a bunch of subjective opinions. Yours probably the most subjective.
https://theathletic.com/4701104/2023/07/19/nhl-offseason-ratings-most-improved-teams/?source=user_shared_article
That’s hilarious that your defense of objectivity is an opinion piece based on some hypothetically derived model by some reporters. If you really believe that article is objective proof, then there is no hope for your being able to understand the concepts being discussed or reality. If you don’t believe it, then this is just more of your trolling BS. There is no third alternative.
What “concepts” are those?
Who is discussing them other than insisting “Oilers are the best and the rest of the league is trash”?
Since you have no respect for those who are employed and paid handsomely for their analysis of the league, it would seem the only opinion you value is your own.
There is no other alternative.
Nice try. Whether I do or don’t respect the opinions of these people has no bearing on whether what they postulate is objective. And the concept you clearly don’t understand in relation to the model they put forward is what aspect of it is objective.
I wouldn’t care if you put forward a survey of all the GM’s and coaches in the league on who the most improved team is, that wouldn’t make the outcome ‘objective’. Nor is anyone else’s opinion in the matter nor anyone else’s model. Some opinion’s are more informed than others, but their end conclusions at this point are still subjective. Talk to me at the end of the 23/24 season. Then and only then will there be an ‘objective’ measure of who the most improved is.
The OP was projecting team quality in the Pacific Division in the upcoming season based on offseason moves and that is a very common point of discussion every summer.p all over the league.
That you find it pointless until we know who wins the cup begs the question why you would insert yourself into the discussion other than to berate and bully anyone who finds it interesting.
I am fine with discussions on people’s subjective opinions on which has improved themselves the most. Again the problem is your claim that ‘objectively’ Dallas is the the most improved team. Ie. You are stating that matter is settled and no further discussion of who the most improved team is warranted.
All the rest of your other petty protestations and insults are just you trying to obfuscate the point that you misused the term objective either deliberately or accidentally.
I’ve noticed you hedging your LA plugs a bit more lately. Did you watch some highlights or just dig into PLDs fancies? I know you know that Blake had a very rough summer 😉
Dallas – with their ages the odds are much higher that all of Seguin, Benn, Pavelski, Duchene and Hinze regress than pop. Any model that spitz out different needs to be tuned cause it might also tell you that Kopitar is worth $7.5 million at 37…
Colorado – What is their depth at forward right now? rebuilding a 2nd line with RyJo-Drouin-Nichushkin doesn’t fill me with confidence. One wonders if the dressing room is all good with Nichushkin bailing halfway through a playoff series last year…Drouin is a problem child as well. lots of potential problems alongside a new team adjustment worry (RyJo=Hubby but worse?). They aren’t the same team they were two years ago.
Seattle has the same problems as Dallas but with an even lower offensive ceiling…
Vegas is legit.
Everyone else is two tiers lower and will get beaten like a rented mule.
It’s just the odds man. The odds favor the Oilers right now.
Also Calgary?
You mean the same team shopping all of Backlund, Hanifin and Lindholm with the rest of their forward “core,” north of 30?
Yes it can get a lot worse in Calgary haha
The only concern I have with LA is their goaltending but I’d be just as concerned about SkinnerCamobell.
Skinner was exposed in the playoffs .883 3.68 GAA.
Campbell is a box of chocolates.
PLD should easily score 30G 70P since the plan is to play him with Fiala and Arvidsson and of course that allows Danault to play on a shutdown line and he’s much better than McLeod.
Adding a full season of Gavrikov and phenom Brandt Clarke will make the Kings D among the the best in the conference.
PLD couldn’t hit 30 with cherry minutes with a Team Canada line and it’s PP you think those plugs will unlock him?
hahahahahaha
Blake should have been fired before the ink was dry. #AlmostHubby
Oh Brandt Clarke has crappier numbers than The Bouch… just saying. Couldn’t put up a PPG in his Draft year and you’re calling him a phenom? Low bar.. low low bar.
You can brag all you want but until the Oilers win a Cup they’re just like the Capitals wandering in the desert before they hit paydirt .
Most all, the Oilers remind me of the Sharks.
Plenty of high end talent but also significant weaknesses and an aging lineup that is soon going to get very expensive.
The ending could certainly be different but it’s giddy up time.
Sharks didn’t have any nasty on their team. Oilers need a couple of younger balls to the wall players but Woody and especially Holland love their veterans. No way would I allow Leon and Connor having to do the heavy lifting all the time. it’s embarrassing watching L.A (Andersson) almost take out Leon 2 years ago then Doughty trying his best to Bobby Orr McDavid knees. Meanwhile on the bench Woody justs looks down. The league has changed but the Oilers fo need a couple of sneaky dirty players.
You should be a Leaf’s fan this season. Treliving worked his magic there to bring in some “snot” and it’s clearly the worst team they’re set to ice in 5 years lol.
One of these times Connor or Leon might not get up. We all seen what a coward Doughty was against Tkachuk. You turn the tables on Doughty and get someone on his ass he’ll back off instantly.
Hehe love the dig.
You sure L.A., Dallas or Colorado doesn’t look like the Sharks?
Colorado especially now. Burns and Karlsson on the backend in Makar and Toews. Couple fun pieces up front blended with a shite ton of meh? Hahaha RyJo up against Drasaitl hahahaha
LA is near the same age as the Sharks did right before tankville kicked in… $7.5×2 for Koppie has about 10 million in negative value to go along with the $40 million in negative value for PLD lol.
Dallas is probably older at all of its key spots than the Sharks but when Robertson is putting up a nice stiff lip saying how’s he’s in it for the long haul when they start a run of say 5-7 playoff misses in a row after this season we’ll all say how Brave a soldier he is.
He’s talking about the Sharks years ago not now.
Regression is most likely going to be the result of injury.
The Oilers top 5 scorers were uncommonly healthy.
I’m guessing a healthy Kane can easily supplant Nurse as the #5 scorer from last year.
Likely but that doesn’t guarantee health for the other 4.
Duh.
Sometimes the obvious needs to be stated.
Other WC contenders had numerous injuries to top 5 players.
One of them won the Central Division and another won the Stanley Cup.
If Bouchard plays close to 80 games, he will be well up there as well. Barrie would have been the number 5 scorer on the team had he not been traded. Barrie was also slightly ahead of Kane in PPG. Bouchard is more than capable of exceeding Barrie’s pace.
Now if a healthy Kane gets time on the number one PP, trading off with Hyman like he did the first season plus the playoffs and up to his first injury this past season, his PPG should rise too. And he is also very good cover on the PP if Hyman is hurt.
Too bad on John Farinacci signing with the Bruins.
I had never heard of this player a few weeks ago but liked what I read/learned about him in this community. Sounds like he would have been a solid add to the “advanced prospect” depth.
Eastern US guy signing in the Eastern US – not all that surprising, is it?
Is anyone surprised?
I’m surprised that a guy who did three years at Harvard doesn’t finish his fourth. Does that count?
It’s actually quite common.
Players finish their degrees in the offseason.
I’m not usually surprised when it’s say the University of Minnesota or North Dakota because those are big time hockey programs and the players are mostly there to play hockey and have a good time plus finishing without a scholarship isn’t super expensive. Harvard, Princeton and Cornell surprise me because they are free Ivy league degrees (and expensive ones) that don’t have top level hockey programs.
It’s $15,000 a year for the former and $55,000+ for the latter.
You’d have to really believe you were going to make the NHL to want to spend that kind of money for a year or two while agreeing to make $70k in the AHL. Plus if you were that good at hockey, why didn’t you play in a better program and focus on making the NHL?
Hehe. He didn’t play any Harvard games during the Covid year, but I’m guessing he did take classes online and likely did finish his degree. Still surprised?
Oh, I misread that. Now I’m not anymore.
Not sure why, but at first glance, I had read that as “John Fibonacci.”
112358
If those are his scoring stats that’s a golden number.
Shit that’s my password for this site.
I gotta say if this is baseball from the late 90’s, Hymans and RNH’s stats from last year would be screaming “PED’s”
Hockey players don’t need to bulk up like a He-Man they need to be wiry and fast. Dominik Hasek was a beanpole that could keep up to Nadia Comaneci when it came to flexibility. Now real Cocaine that’s a whole different beast.
In my opinion, offensive regression is fine as long as there improvements to their defensive games. At the end of the day, isn’t GF% more important than point totals for team success?
It’s the only thing. Historic seasons and PP, still couldn’t beat a more organized team
People will mention injuries, and that is a factor, but I also see other teams have major injuries and still get by, keep winning games. To me the Oilers falter more. And that is coaching, organization, team play, team buy in, team building
When you get to the finals and you are healthier it’s certainly a bigger advantage than earlier to me. But it goes back to coaching. Cassidy’s team won’t back down, but also doesn’t run around. I think there is an awareness of staying in the game, keep contributing
Maurice on the other hand did have his team, or let them, run around and they ended up getting hurt, where they might have avoided it with a more strategic plan. They were also relying to a great degree on luck – bounces and fortunate turns of events. You need them, but the plan should always be to mitigate how much luck you need with stability and consistency, and let superior talent push you over, or give up nothing
When the Panther’s opportunistic forecheck that got them to the finals went dry they were hooped, and also too beaten up
Boston Bruins@NHLBruins·21m
The #NHLBruin
have signed John Farinacci to a two-year entry-level deal contract.
He’s been playing hockey Boston since he was 16 (prep school, high school, college), so signing with the Bruins is not a surprise.
I think there is little doubt that, as far as box-cars go, both Nuge and Hyman will “regress” from last season.
I mean 100 plus points from Nuge is a clear outlier. I don’t think he regresses back to 60-65 points but think, presuming healthy, he’ll be at apx PPG on this team for the next while.
I think Hyman is a 30/30 guy, again, presuming health.
I could see Drai regressing a bit points wise as well – I mean, did he not tie Kucherov for the 2nd highest total in the century?
With that said, I think Drai will improve his overall game and become a more consistent 2-way player and will spike goal share wise (away from McDavid).
McDavid, well, its crazy that he’s 150 points away from 1000 and him getting 1000 this coming season in a realistic possibility.
——————–
Spikes from McLeod and Broberg and Holloway and I think Foegele is going to have a big year.
So a drop in the power play % could drop RNH and Hyman s totals? 🤔
Part of Hyman/RNH regressing would be that if Kane and Brown play all year, the Oilers have better top six options than Yamamoto/Bjugstad/Janmark etc. and Hyman & Nuge won’t be run as hard as last season but I believe they will play just as much on the PP this season as last with around the same level of success.
I assume they will run the PP the same way (McD, Drai, RNH, Hyman, Bouchard for all 2 mins) even with the addition of Brown and a healthy. Kane doesn’t produce a lot of points on the PP (6 in the last 2 years) so I don’t see them giving him much time there. Brown doesn’t seem to be a PP wizard either. The choice post power-play line will be interesting though as Kane/Brown would be available as well as the whole 3-line.
Excellent point besides Leon and Connor I believe Goal sharing will be spread out more ( plus injury factor) also stone hands 1 and 2 are thankfully in the rear view mirror. If our PP clips at a little lesser pace I believe we make that up on the PK. Our PK is going to score like Motley Crüe did in the Eighties.
Having McDavid get 1000 points and at least one stanley by the end of his contract should be satisfying to one and all. Hope he’s an Oiler for life but I’d be fine with that. Same with Drai but contract is up a year earlier.
I think Drai was still recovering most of last year from his injury in 2022 playoffs – he might pop this year again. McDavid has team goals front and center so points are nice but not critical at this stage. Kane will be better, Hyman steady, RNH regresses from a career year. He’s another guy with team goals (excellence in playoffs). Brown is certainly better than Yamomoto. Holloway and McLeod should grow on the 3rd line with Foegle steady. You hope 4th line of Ryan, Janmark and center X can be average (but regression very possible). Things are OK if your 4th line is the main worry.
Nurse, Ekholm and Kulak are steady. Ceci has upside with good health. Bouch almost certainly will pop and Broberg is primed as well. Downside possible for Desharnais and upgrading Ceci for better RHD an option in-season.
Skinner steady as she goes and Campbell a wildcard in net. I was not happy how he was used in the playoffs. Much upside if he had a good summer and is used properly.
McDavid could have 1000 points and a Stanley by the end of next season…..
….and if that happens then let the party begin.
FWIW, Janmark was 7th among forwards in TOI/game last season (ahead of McLeod, Foegele, Bjugstad, etc), so 4th line would be a big drop in usage (which is to say, we likely shouldn’t expect regression if that’s the role he’s playing).
I think people are forgetting how good Broberg was playing when he finally got consistant nightly minutes and settled in. From a recent blog on the Oilers’ website:
I have zero doubt that Broberg can be a high end 3rd pairing guy, like he was for those 6 weeks and, as far as positive regression goes, I think there is every chance he “pops” to a legitimate 2nd pairing guy this season – he won’t post big numbers any time soon (which is great for keeping his next contract low) but he can be a 20 minute 2-way guy that defends and moves the puck out.
If Broberg can’t handle 5-6 duty then trade him immediately.
He’s already proven that he can.
80 games without continuing at odd times to turn the wrong way when defenders are closing in on him in the corners.
I see 80 games of mistake free hockey is the threshold now.
I’m not talking about mistakes but surviving getting plastered into the boards. I believe he tried bulking up last year or the year before and it just slowed him down. Without bias have you not noticed him play the board game awkwardly at a given time with possibly a Keegan Kolesar barrelling down on him.
When he was learning the North American game, yup, he had issues taking big hits.
I don’t see that as a thing any more at all.
Deharnais, Ekholm, Ceci and Nimeo all took hits at a higher rate than Broberg last season and, in the playoffs, the d-man on the Oilers that took the least amount of hits (/60) was Broberg.
Interesting.
“Positive regression” makes me cringe.
Just like irregardless and “more better”.
And people who think it’s pronounced RAWther.
Morning mini-rant over.
I think the old word was “progression”. But in double speak it is now “positive regression”. Orwell lives on!
Regression is returning to a former state. In our context, positive regression would be returning to an already established higher level of achievement – like breaking out of a slump. Progression is achieving a new state – like prospects hitting their potential. Totally different.
But don’t get me started on the words “apropos” or “podium”.
Double plus good!
how about “unthawing ice” or “free gift” or “very unique”…
…or ‘First Annual’…
I love the way that checkout cashiers try to tell me that I “saved” $27 as I am handing them $130 for my two bags of groceries. 🥸
Remember the eighties 18-21% interest rates. The big deal was 14% interest rates for a first time buyer at the Alberta Treasury Branch. That was of course until Peter Puck almost sank the Alberta Treasury Branch himself. These maxed out kids today are in for a rude awakening.
Remember you could buy a house for under $100,000 as well so that would be a huge difference.
As to the “rude awakening” I wouldn’t be so sure it will be restricted to kids. There is always a time lag but wages have a way of catching up to inflation that isn’t available to the retired.
This is just my thinking as cycles very but for me it’s 7 Boon 7 So-So and 7 Bust = Blackjack. The big difference is that A-I is coming and it’s coming fast. This is why you hear little rumblings of Universal Basic Income.
“Evan Bouchard, if he ever signs a damn deal,”
Just to stir things up on a slow Wednesday in the middle of August, Kotkaniemi was offer sheeted at the end of August (the 28th). The Oilers aren’t home free yet, are they?
Well besides the fact that there have only been 3 signed offer sheets since the lockout in 2013, and Jesperi’s was the result of an “Idioteque” offer sheet attempt by Bergevin on Aho (if you’re going to offer sheet someone, at least make it a difficult choice for them to match, like Carolina did with the payback offer sheet).
That and Bouchard’s willingness or preference to sign an offer sheet with one of the teams still capable of making him one, if any of them do take a run at it. Never say never, but it is doubtful.
The meaningful deadline, like it has been all summer, is the day before training camp starts. No real rush till then.
The Canadiens did make that one as difficult as they could. His whole contract was signing bonuses plus a minimum contract through the year. The thought was that Dundon wouldn’t have the money to cover the bonus $11.3M due that week as he had bought the team for $420M the year before and put $250M into the failed Alliance of American Football earlier in 2019.
I don’t know if Bouchard would actually sign an offer sheet that wasn’t ridiculous. He’d be leaving a team on the cusp of winning and the number one power play. If Bouchard believes he’ll get 8M+ for 8 years from the Oilers in 2 years, he’d have to get at least 8X7 now to make it worth it and even then would he be going to a contender?
For context, if Bouchard makes 3.9M x 2 and then 8.5M x 8 that is 75.8M. An offer sheet of 8X7 is 56M and he would need to make at least 6.6 over the next three years to equal the 75.8M. Staying with the Oilers and foregoing an offer sheet might actually be the better financial play anyways.
Bouchard is finally locked in on a historical level power play. It would be short sighted to walk away from that. Looking at his entire career, he’s going to get paid, especially running up the points feeding McDavid and Drai.
A team could offer sheet Bouchard at 2X$7 million then extend him at 8X$8.5 million and he would be much farther ahead.
They could but Bouchard is much more likely to get 8.5 playing with McDavid than without him. It would be a big risk to leave the Oilers without a major long term deal because he most assuredly would score less points on a team desperate enough to overpay him via offer sheet. Plus, there are only nine teams with the picks (own 1,2,3) to make that offer and only three with the cap room and I can’t see Anaheim, Chicago or Nashville thinking they’d be good enough with Bouchard to part with an unprotected 1st.
Depends on the team.
And, as the cap jumps over the ext two years, $8.5 million won’t be all that formidable.
To really make it difficult, they would have needed to make the AAV higher or the term longer. The day after the offer sheet, it was apparent Dundon was going to match. Bergevin and whoever else were running the numbers clearly were way off base on what financial resources Dundon had for the cash component. Also because it was a 5 year deal at that AAV, the compensation was only a 1st, and 2nd and a 3rd, which was not near enough compensation for what Aho had already proven he could bring to the table.
Had the Habs offered that same money at 6 years, the calculated AAV for compensation would have risen (the maximum denominator for calculating the AAV for purposes of offer sheet compensation is 5 years), and the compensation would have risen to 2 firsts a 2nd and a 3rd (probably wouldn’t want to go all the way to the top tier at 4 firsts). A longer commitment at that price and a greater return would have given Waddell and Dundon something to think about.
Had Bergevin done hat, the Habs might be sitting here today with Aho on the team instead of having Logan Mailloux in the system (and Kaiden Guhle and their 2nd and 3rd round choices from 2020 from the picks they kept from their offer).
Bergevin succeeded in upsetting the brass at Carolina with a move that had almost no chance of working. It came back to haunt him.
I don’t think Carolina would have looked at the return no matter how good it was. Essentially it’s like Buffalo matching on Vanek. Firsts are too risky to let go of a really great player.
It really did seem like Montreal thought the money could make it happen when they made the offer but I think you’re right that they weren’t sure it would work.
You are correct that they didn’t offer a high enough AAV (and bonus) to make Carolina really think about it. I think Montreal convinced themselves to do it but wasn’t willing to take on the necessary risk to really make it happen.
The Vanek offer sheet in 2007 is the opposite of the Aho situation. The compensation for Vanek would have been 4 firsts, and Buffalo instead chose to match which turned out to be the wrong thing to have done. Vanek was very good but never lived up to the deal. Also noteworthy, Buffalo has missed the playoffs almost every season since it was signed except for 2 first round exits in 2010 and 2011.
Learning from this, at 4 firsts, Carolina would very likely have let Aho go.
The list of NHL teams that have the cap space to offer Bouchard a $6M contract:
Anaheim
Chicago
Nashville
Buffalo
Montreal
That’s not to say that he’d accept a $6M offer, or that the Oilers wouldn’t match if he did, but the list of teams that could offer him even $6M is very short.
Can’t imagine he’d sign for $6MM on any other team.
I mean, he’s almost assuredly going to get at least a $6MM AAV from the Oilers after the two year bridge (and likely higher) so it would only make sense for him to sign that for a 1-2 year term and, while he still is a high end offensive guy, his box-cars will simply be muted on any of those teams.
Not to mention, I think he wants to be an Oiler and continue to hand and grow and win with his buddies (McLeod and Foegele).
I have zero concern over an off-sheet.
The overpay would need to be so stark, and for term, for Bouchard to give up the monetary upside of playing with McDavid and Drai in their primes.
Although I’m getting to the point where I just want it to get done, I have no concern that it won’t happen and he will be in camp on day 1 (and on the ice for the informal skates, etc. when all the others come back from Ontario, etc.).
Somewhat related to how teams are built and whether poor drafting may have sewered Yzerman’s Detroit rebuild.
This is the number of players on each team who were 1) drafted by that team, and 2) played at least 40 NHL games last season.
1) NYI 11
2) BUF 10
2) WPG 10
4) LAK 9
5) BOS 8
5) CBJ 8
5) DAL 8
5) EDM 8
5) PHI 8
10) NSH 7
10) OTT 7
12) ANA 6
12) CAR 6
12) DET 6
12) MIN 6
12) NJD 6
12) NYR 6
12) STL 6
12) TBL 6
20) CGY 5
20) MTL 5
20) PIT 5
20) SJS 5
20) TOR 5
20) WSH 5
26) ARI 4
26) COL 4
26) FLA 4
29) VAN 3
30) VGK 2
31) CHI 1
31) SEA 1
Not sure what to draw from this. The cup winner and finalist (and previous cup winner) are near the bottom of the league (fewest drafted players). A number of good teams at the top of the list as well. Detroit is kind of in the middle. The Oilers are towards the top (they’d have had 10 until Yamamoto and Puljujarvi departed).
Small sample size of one year aside, I think this shows there is more than one way to build a team. There are so many factors that go into team building (including a lot that are out of a team’s control e.g. health, injuries, desire to go to another locale, etc) that I’m not sure you can have a template to only do it one way and then stick to it. Good management groups realize this and use a combination of draft and develop, trades and signings skewed towards whatever works best for their particular team.
Vegas and Seattle are obvious outliers on this list due to expansion, Chicago has rebuilt down to the studs, as has Arizona mostly and Vancouver has been poorly managed. Colorado and Florida are the most interesting on this list from the least drafted players end of the spectrum. Both teams have been good at finding value in trades and signings and their locales/state of their teams I believe make it easier to attract players.
On the other end Buffalo and LA are or have recently exited rebuilds where they stocked draft picks so neither are a surprise here. Chevy needs to retain drafted players in Winnipeg because it’s been tough to attract players and he is also painfully slow at making moves. Dallas re-tooled on the fly and drafting well helped them do that. Boston surprises a bit here, but they had a long-term home grown core that was highly effective.
This is it really. I remember in 2003 the Devils won the cup with 14 home grown players and then in 2004 when the lightning won with only 5 players they had drafted on the team. Winning is really about asset management because every player goes through ups and downs in value and there are many ways to win (most involve a lot of luck).
Yes, for sure. The lesson is that there is no one template.
Bruce McCurdy has been dissecting how the SC Champion has been built for a number of years now (and I think in some years he’s done the final four).
As one would imagine, the work is very thorough and detailed and I encourage all who are interested in this topic to read.
Spoiler: There are MANY ways to build a champion in the NHL.