Many years ago, at hfboards, I wrote a post asking how much better Marc Pouliot (first-round selection, 2003) was than Kyle Brodziak (chosen 190 spots later in 2003). The numbers were fairly close at the time. Brodziak was a full year older, and didn’t spike until his draft (19) year old season, but there were reasons to make the comparison.
I don’t remember if the post got much of a reaction and I don’t know if hfboards exists. I expect that post is long gone into the ether, but the reaction the post did get taught me a lesson: When you’re too close, too emotional about an issue, chances are the conclusions will be biased. Same as it ever was.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: How will Tyler Wright’s time with the Oilers be remembered?
- Lowetide: Is trading Philip Broberg in the Oilers’ future?
- Lowetide: Unpacking Oilers’ decision to hire Rick Pracey, part ways with Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: 9 bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2023-24
- Lowetide: The NHL offseason’s 5 most risky moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
UNBIASED OPINION
Corey Pronman released his ‘best players and prospects under 23’ list today. It is here. He has Philip Broberg No. 54 based on toolkit and projection. Pronman has Broberg in the “Bubble top and middle of the lineup player” category. I believe that will surprise many of you. I had him as the No. 1 prospect in the system as recently as winter 2021 and of course he has now graduated from my list.
Pronman has Dylan Holloway at No. 85, heading the “middle of the lineup player” category. I agree with the assessment. Holloway is fast is neither shy nor work shy. I just don’t know if he’s going to score enough.
Xavier Bourgault is No. 103, the only prospect with under 50 NHL games to make the list. That’s a positive, Bourgault is recognized after year one in the AHL and before he gets any NHL time. The problem for Edmonton comes after Bourgault. It’s a thin system, ladies.
Here are the forwards in the system. Lots of chatter in the comments section about Lavoie being no big deal, but if he isn’t then the Oilers simply must have a spike from one of the other names on this list.
The Oilers are in a tough spot. The organization needs talent bubbling under for inexpensive NHL players and for trade purposes. The team is being lapped in an important area, and when it comes to drafting and procurement, you can’t go fast enough to get there early. It takes time to move a mountain.
New for The Athletic: What should Oilers fans expect from new scouting director Richard Pracey?
https://theathletic.com/4810719/2023/08/28/edmonton-oilers-richard-pracey-scouting-director/
I’m expecting a 2009-esque (Avalanche) draft for us? 🙂 No pressure, Richard.
LT, why did you focus on the CHL? The McGregor and the Oilers picked a bunch of NHLers from non-CHL leagues during that period that you’re excluding.
Sure. I wanted to get the cleanest comparison I could and both teams did in fact spend heavily in CHL forwards through the first three rounds of the draft. I didn’t go in to the exercise thinking the Avalanche would be so efficient compared to the Oilers, but the numbers told the story.
MacGregor and his staff DID pick several NHL players from other leagues. That doesn’t change the inefficient work with CHL picks.
Thanks.
Maybe the Oilers can trade for Elias Pettersson because he has come out and announced he’s leaving if Vancouver misses the playoffs.
Pretty big NHL news. Weird no one posted a link.
At this point you just have to play the games and adjust accordingly at the end of camp and in-season. Some guys will exceed expectations – some will fall below – can’t know that until you play some games.
Of the forwards, Lavioe may or may not be ready, but he will get a chance. Same with the other fringe guys (Sutter, Gags, Cags, Pederson). Trying to be a soothsayer at this point is pretty much a waste of time. We’ll see who is legit soon enough.
As for the defense – same deal. We go with our 7 guys and see how things are shaping up after 20 games – then upgrade where (if) necessary.
I’m a nerd.
Found this saved in a drive that I rarely use.
Figured this is the crowd to share it in (disclaimer: may have/likely came across it here).
Oilers Player Clusters
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1W9kRR02jI_Hfze-kDH4uRPgQao3QthQKj373RpleDnI/edit?usp=sharing
I colour code my spreadsheets too. 😎
I do too haha
I’m not the author, just to be clear. Just thought folks here might derive some value.
I think the last phrase sums it up nicely.
On one hand, late round drafting improved markedly under Green… and again with Wright.
On the other hand, the scouts need more bullets. Lately (and going forward, one would expect), those bullets will be strategically used to acquire players with current value to the team as opposed to down range.
Rock, meet hard place.
Solutions?
NCAA drafting. Often talked about, and employed at times successfully under the last couple regimes. Perhaps more is a partial remedy; perhaps acquisitions from that realm are more difficult than one may suspect.
Euro free agents. Shop in the tier above guys like Kahun or Hass. The guys who’ve developed into pros and are now looking to see how high their ceiling goes. Germany is on a tear in development growth, as a for instance. Switzerland produces well rounded players like… clockwork. Et cetera.
Undrafted overage players from the CHL/USNTDP. More and higher quality competition at the minor pro league level is a boon across the organization.
These are just some of the possible vectors to shore up procurement and feed the parent team with quality call ups and prospects that don’t require draft picks.
Another avenue is identifying players who may be blocked or are underperforming for various reasons.
Colorado has been notably successful in doing this with players like Toews, Nichushkin, Lehkkonen, Georgiev and others.
Of course this demands excellent pro scouting backed up by analytics.
It will be interesting to see how this seasons bets on Drouin, Colton and Wood play out.
Yes. Contract inefficiencies are a team building procurement pillar. Which is pro scouting; the focus of my post was on amateur talent acquisition to provide value contracts.
Pronman stuck the knife in good. 😉
He ranked the Anaheim Ducks as having the best prospect pool in the NHL. Their number one ranked prospect is Trevor Zegras.
The Devils are ranked fourth. Their 3rd ranked prospect is Dawson Mercer.
Wyatt Johnson #22 overall…Dylan Holloway #85.
How about Bourgault from the same draft
What’s Jesper Wallstedt ranked compared to Bogard. I’ll take Billy Guerin as G.M anyday he’s a shrewd cookie competitive just like his playing days.
Wallstedt is 66 vs Bourgeault 103
Zegras 8 vs Broberg 54
Mercer 28 vs Holloway 85
Dallas top forward prospect vs, Edmonton top forward prospect.
Some interesting names on Pronman’s list:
22 Wyatt Johnston. 2021. #21. Dallas
23 Alexander Nikishin. 2020 #69 Carolina
41 Mathew Knies. 2021 #57 Toronto.
42 Logal Stankoven. 2021. #47. Dallas
46 Shane Pinto. 2019. #32 Ottawa
59 Ollen Zellweger. 2021. #34 Anaheim
71 Kaliyev. 2019. 33. LA
74 David Edstrom. 2023. #32. Vegas
94 Vincent Iorio. 2021. #55. Washington
I previously took a brief look at various post-lockout draft rankings. Generally the Canadian teams drafted and developed the poorest, by quite a margin. Toronto was the lone exception. Ottawa is one that’s underrated imo by different draft ranking systems.
Dallas, LA and Anaheim all draft well. Washington has done especially well since then lockout at drafting.
Carolina is a team to watch with Tulsky.
And Vollman in LA.
No Canucks on any top prospect list after years of missing the playoffs. It’s a sad state of affairs.
Yaremchuk was able to get Sam Gagner on the Real Life podcast (Oilers Nation) – Haven’t listened yet but about to and I presume it would be of interest to some.
A really solid 15-18 minute listen.
I have been posting for a while in connection with the Gagner PTO rumors/speculation about his hip surgery.
When asked about the process and what took so long, he referenced Jackson being his former agent was part of it but, more importantly he wasn’t sure where he would be hips wise. He says his hips feel great and that he is ahead of schedule. He wasn’t sure if he’d be ready to come to camp. He’s still pushing to try and get to another level. Been a long summer of rehab, then getting back on the ice and trying to get back in playing shape. He’s at the point where he’s taking a bit more contact and a month ahead of schedule.
Later he referenced that his hips have been an issue for a few years and he decided to take care of them and try and continue pain free. He was on crutches four months ago and then spent two months in the pool (hours daily), then started to add in some body weight stuff, then getting back on the ice and rehab skating getting strength back. Now he’s able to push himself a bit more on the ice.
I’m of two minds on this:
One: his hips have been an issue for a few years now, this wasn’t an acute injury from this past season – if things are “fixed and pain free” perhaps a bump in performance
On the other hand: he’s already on the downside and he’s spent the summer rehabbing from major surgery and it doesn’t sound like there has been any hockey training to this point.
Got to say, I’m excited to see him in late September/October – cheering for him, of course.
And Sutter who last I read recently wasn’t training fully yet
And we hope for something? These are probably slated to be the deadline adds
Vets!!
Lots of talk of Gagner as the 13th forward but let’s not forever the Oilers will not have cap room for a 13th forward on the roster.
Unless there is an LTIR injury, as of right now, the Oilers will be carrying 12 forwards to start the season. 11 of those forwards are locked in my mind (including Holloway) and it’s Lavoie, Pederson, Sutter and Gagner competing for the 12th spot.
Ideally, that 12F is a center and a right shot center and Sutter has the perfect skill-set/pedigree. A big right shot center who is great on the face offs and on the PK.
Of course Sutter was barely hanging on as an NHL player before he missed two full seasons dealing with health issues. It seems a stretch that he can be an NHL player now at 34 years old.
The hope is that Lavoie earns that spot at camp as he’s the only one that could be a part of the organization going forward and with upside.
I’m all for Gagner on the PTO but he’s also been barely hanging on the am NHL career and he did have hip surgery they ended his last season. Truth be told, if Gagner wins the 12F spot, it’s not the best.
I’m all for Gagner being the 13th forward, if he’s healthy and hasn’t lost another step. League min deal, waived and starting the season in Bako.
Of course the Oilers won’t even have cap space to call anyone up for a short term injury replacement (unless it’s on emergency after playing with 17 skaters for a game) but things will change and there is likely to be long term injuries.
Ideally, for the Oilers, the 12F is Lavoie making a breakthrough.
One can pick up retread centres anytime. They are all pretty much like each other. None really move the needle.
Lavoie making a breakthrough moves the needle.
It is never ideal to pack a roster with stopgap retreads. It is actually the exact opposite.
Well at least they have Foegele. Because wingers drive the play and can play with lesser centres. Or actually the exact opposite
I think I’m getting frustrated watching things setting up for a mess. And I’m sure an expensive one to clean up unless someone else is doing the deals
Maybe Jackson will intervene and price any deals correctly. Maybe understand player values better, or more currently. I hope he will have to approve trades
I’ll say it again Oilers are not a draft and development team it’s become a veteran team take the blinders off. They couldn’t even test drive Lavoie last year. Holloway makes a ugly mistake 1st shift of the year and Woody never forgave him for it. No wonder the kid has lost confidence no Soup or Playoff games for you Dylan even though So&So on the 2nd line was getting manhandled like a 3rd grade schoolgirl. Same with Broberg never gave him top 4 minutes even though Ceci was hurt for the last 25 games or more.
The team is definitely a veteran team but younger players have been provided opportunities – shorter leashes for sure but he opportunities have been there.
Lavoie didn’t even put himself in the conversation for a call-up for 85% of the ELC and, once he did warrant consideration in Feb/March of this past season, the team was gearing up for a playoff run (as was Lavoie with the Condors).
Holloway was given the opportunity to start the season in the top 6. I agree that he should have been given more leash after that first mistake but to say he was never provided other opportunities is not based in reality. He got 4 or 5 pushes up the lineup and was never able to stick. He wasn’t making mistakes, he was making the same mistake over again – that will get a kid lower minutes every time.
I agree re: the handling of Broberg.
His continued play of the rookie Skinner over Campbell is direct evidence against your position.
In your opinion was Bouchard brought along properly? How much would a Ekholm type acquired 2 years ago not only shoring up our back-end but giving guidance to Evan on the finer things on being a D. I liked Barrie good guy, good player but I said it back then and I’ll say it now Barrie blocked Bouchard’s development. Playing Bear over Bouchard instead of alternating them was stupid. It took over just over 2 years for Bear to be worn down then broken.
I think the rookies’ success has to me mitigated by what we see from veteran players on this team. The teams that go deeper than us and those that win the Cup mostly are playing well throughout the roster. And of course have enough luck
Yes there is cap circumvention. But Holland can do that too, it seems to be a thing and the league isn’t so far interested. Vegas didn’t circumvent the cap during the season, had a lot of key injuries, and still won the division. I highly doubt the Oilers could do that with the same level of key injuries. Players can’t step up and play the system in the same way that Vegas does. Why?
Why do all of Vegas’ players seem so good (always a thing with very well coached teams), and our Oilers continually struggle with executing? Their top scorer Eichel was 1 PPG and missed a lot of games. Nuge used to be good defensively right? What happened? Why can they only keep GA down for a few months or weeks and then revert back to Keystone Cops?
The Oilers were twice taken out by the opponent exploiting a basic weakness in the system. The Avs cut off Smyth’s obvious pass to the side boards, and they weren’t used to executing a normal breakout. Hooped. The Knights are less talented than the Oilers IMO (which showed in that we could get the lead, just not hold it), attacked the man on man D system that most of the Oiler’s D struggled with anyway, at least when under pressure. And prevailed. To me that shows a lack of foresight by our coaching group, that they had such exploitable things in their system with no seeming adjustment
But those teams went on to win it all! Yes, because the coaches had the entire group playing well and used the right tactics for their teams. And found weaknesses and were able to attack them successfully. And made necessary adjustments. Which is how you win the championship in any sport
My main point being if the youth struggle I don’t think it’s all on them. If they were Knight’s prospects we’d probably covet them. Everyone is struggling with execution, even Connor, but he can outplay it. It can’t always be that the players aren’t good enough or aren’t doing it
The only roster problems now (as opposed to using marginal or non NHL players like before) are players being used above their level, and hanging on to cap hits they can’t afford for role players because they are top heavy, which creates problems now and later. Some pundits have said it’s not the system it’s the players and the coaches are great, I don’t agree. Good yes, better than before yes. Good enough for the next step?
Maybe, but I see a lot of Flattop Babcock coaching tree stubborness. And other than Babcock winning once a long time ago with a stacked team, those coaches haven’t been ultimately successful. Flattop had an excellent team for years and never got there. The Oiler players care I am certain. It’s not a lack of effort
All teams play under the cap (at least until playoffs) so no one stays deeper for long. I don’t believe MacCrimmon has the secret sauce that gets 3rd line talent to play for 4th line money or 2nd pair D to play for 3rd pair cash, at least over time. It’s top level coaching and the GM being active in perceiving and being able to quickly fill gaps, not over paying constantly, and being right a lot
These rookies are talented and have size and speed and even some snarl. Not hockey smart? I don’t think you can do what Holloway and Bro have done before and be lacking very much. If they can’t help in some way there’s more to it than them
Sorry I’m repeating, the site said my previous comment couldn’t post
It’d be interesting to see what other teams have years at the draft where they faceplanted? Boston 2015 comes to mind. Obviously because the blog is Oiler centric we only hear about ours but I find the criteria generally pessimistic.
2 players per draft, okay, how many of those players play for the team that drafted them? Marino and Reider come to mind.
Does New York get credit for Fox? Are Kakko and Laf successes due to games played and the math said they were the right pick?
I understand I sound full apologist arc it just always seems like our host believes the Oil are missing consistently more at the draft table when the best teams in the league sometimes don’t even use the draft. Cupboards are bare when this is the first year in a decade plus we ‘may not’ have a rookie in the lineup.
1979 is held up as a gold standard when the draft has revolutionized several times since then. Dallas’ 2017 is the newest gold standard. 1 team in 32 since maybe Colorado in 09 to have multiple big homeruns? . It’s a forward looking lens which is useful for a scout, not sure it’s as vital in the present. I love the draft when picking high. After that first tier, having a known quantity under team control seems infinitely more useful in this team’s life cycle. As long as this team has 97 it will be competitive. Look at the Pens.
Could be an interesting story to follow up on, may have to do some research to back this rant up.
Imagine if the Oilers had kept 16 and 33 in 2015, and drafted Joel Eriksson Ek and Brandon Carlo. That draft would have returned:
McDavid
Eriksson Ek
Carlo
Bear
Jones
Marino
Would that have been the best draft in 30 years?
I think it’s better than Duchene/O’Reilly/Barrie. Is it better than Heiskanen/Oettinger/Robertson?
Maybe it’s an unfair comparison since it took no skill to select McDavid. But even if you remove the first pick from each of those three teams in the comparison, the 2015 Oilers would have stacked up pretty well.
What could have been….
I think we can agree the Oilers have more talent than Vegas, overall
The Knights highest scorer was Eichel at 66 and 1PPG. Played 67 games, Stone 43, Piet 73, Theodore 55 etc. Won the division and the Cup
The more talented Oilers had many players struggling when it counted. Even Ekholm faded as it went along, and his track says it’s not him. The longer he played for us the ‘worse’ he got
My point being many Oilers struggle with a complete game. Nuge used to be a two way player, didn’t he? The kind of game that wins. So rating our rookies success is mitigated by this. Vegas had massive injuries through the season and sailed along. Is it because they have the secret sauce of having better players top to bottom that will take a lower salary to be there – 3rd line quality taking 4th line money?
I don’t buy that, at least over time. The cap catches all. Yes they circumvented but that’s what the top teams do somehow. But Vegas wasn’t circumventing during the season and still did exceptionally well given everything
That is coaching and the coach’s system. Everyone can contribute, and high personal stats mean little to them it seems. Cassidy did the same in Boston and didn’t miss a beat moving and winning the Cup
I’m certain the Oiler rookies would be ones we covet if the were playing for the Knights. Also certain we need to see system changes and more coaching flexibility to see more progress. To me the facts are obvious. 2 coaches in a row ‘luckily’ had their teams ticking top to bottom and beat us and the others
They both exploited our tactics. I was never a fan of Smyth’s being so active and the coaches relying on that. The team didn’t develop a consistent ability to break out without the goaler, which is bad, and it was painful to watch Bednar cut off the side boards where the puck was going to passed to by Mike. Everyone knew it. Completely hooped everything.
Cassidy identified the weakness this time. The Oiler’s D (or a lot of them) couldn’t handle man on man. Especially when teams have time to design tactics. The GA went down after Christmas, but didn’t stay down when it counted. And the vaunted scoring wasn’t at levels Cup winners produce at typically
The coaches didn’t react. Good or better than before isn’t necessarily good enough. Anita lot of time left for learning behind the bench. The players are there now
Agree I think of it as Woody got out-coached, Skinner rookied while Hill got hot, and Pietro got away with Kelser/Perry level nonsense that was a lightning rod moment but ymmv.
Skinner got overplayed, a coaching decision. They saw it as necessary, paid the price later which was pretty obviously coming to a lot of people
The Pietro thing was brutal and the league ridiculous, but Woody said he had them playing aggressive physically, and he got it back. Another mistake to me, they have a few players like that, but I don’t see it as a team identity, especially with the types Holland acquires. More passive types. Too many guys playing outside of their natural game, and a bunch got pretty banged up doing it, like the Panthers did
Ironically it was the Oilers who took the brunt of ‘planting seeds’, and not the Knights. Did the Kings get banged up, can’t remember. Must have been his response to the shenanigans of the previous playoffs. Another tactical error to me. Play the style that suits your players. Connor throwing unnecessary hits makes me ill. Terrible
It’s about depth and balance.
Vegas might have the most perfectly constructed roster in the league with size and skill extending right through their bottom pairing and 4th line.
Its much easier to devise a winning coaching strategy when you don’t have to shelter anyone and can find favourable matchups as a result.
For example 4th line C Nicolas Hague 6’4” 200 scored .5 PPG in the playoffs.
Do the Oilers even have a 4C?
It’s partly that, but if you put their players on a different team they wouldn’t necessarily be the same quality. Former Tampa guys have shown that a lot
Absolutely true but that is indeed the genius of elite roster construction.
While the Oilers have invested almost all of their cap space in the top 2 lines, the Knights have a much more balanced approach and it shows in production. Here is the regular season comparison.
3rd Line Scoring
Oilers 76
Vegas 98
4th line Scoring
Oilers 29
Vegas 73
It’s quite possible that not one Oiler bottom 6 forward would even make the Vegas roster and cracking their top 6 D wouldn’t be much easier.
Ekholm would be their best two way D while he maintains play. Cassidy would play Bouch, any sane coach would based on his stats other than scoring. He’s an excellent entry defender and outlet passer, the two most important defensive metrics
McLeod would make their team. Again his stats against elites are impressive and he’s big and fast
Why Woody isn’t seeing this is why I question his thing. His choices play worse. Ryan is still a better player than Yama all day long. And can take RS faceoffs. Kane was broken and not helping, like Nurse previous playoffs
Except that the genius of their roster construction was Laurent Broissoit getting injured.
The other genius of the Golden Knights roster construction was an unheralded goalie pitching .932 save percentage
Further to that, the other, other, genius of the VGK roster construction was icing a roster about $8MM over the cap.
The way you frame your position, it’s almost as if the Oilers didn’t finish with a +22 better goal differential than Vegas during the regular season, finished 2 points apart and went 6 games in what was likely the actual NHL Final.
Mark Stone missed 39 games.
Eichel missed 15.
Howden missed 28
Carrier missed 26
Theodore missed 27
Whitecloud missed 23
Pietrangelo missed 9
And they still won the division.
Yeah but… did anyone of those players you mentioned have the decency to buy Jack Campbell a beer?
I believe Derek Ryan can and will be waived at some point. I don’t think he would be picked up. This, of coarse, hinges on a successful training camp for Lavoie and if a relevant 4C can be found either at training camp or the trade deadline. I don’t think we can lose him without knowing if he’s a NHL player or not.
I mentioned yesterday my reservations concerning him – even on the 4th line. He will be 37 in a few months.
I know the team has made progress when this many pixels get used worrying about the 4th line but imo we don’t have one and we will need one by the time we get to May next year.
Janmark should not be the best player on his line as he is the way the roster is presently constructed.
The only RS C? With solid scoring stats?
They probably will
The year is 2026, Brandt Clarke, Brogan Rafferty, Joe Colbourne, and Uncle Steve are sitting around the fire remembering all the Stanley Cups the Minnesota Wild won. Joe Sakic smiles from above.
The never officially announced PTOs now official…
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/edmonton-oilers-sign-veteran-forwards-sam-gagner-brandon-sutter-to-ptos-1.2000921
PP option for regular season.
Need grit and skill for the playoffs.
Boldy is a stud! Billy should of been our G.M he’s quietly doing a great job with what he has after getting screwed by Suter and Parise.
Oops that’s meant for the comment you made below.
Should of drafted the sure thing Zegras. What D would Zegras fetch tomorrow I wonder? Holland instead goes for a walkabout drafts a raw.5 year project. Could it be Holland thought he was drafting for his beloved rebuilding Red Wings and the Detroit plan was take Seider and if he’s gone then go with Briberg.
I liked Boldy at the time but would’ve jumped at Turcotte if he dropped to #8
Broberg is right on schedule with most of the drafted D in the first two rounds after Byram and Seider. And that is with staying two years in Europe. He is not behind in the least.
Holloway, Bourgault, Lavoie….. what do we have here?
I have no doubt that Holloway will be an every day NHL player, likely with a floor of a high end 3rd liner but with some top six potential.
I think its highly likely that Bourgault will be an every day NHL player, likely in the middle six range. I don’t think his floor, nor his ceiling is as high as Holloway. he’s unlikely to be a legit top 6 winger and I don’t think he’s a lock to be a high end 3rd liner like Holloway is but likely.
Lavoie, well, he has legit top 6 potential if he can put it all together and translate it to the NHL but, at the same time, he was tweener potential as well. This is a big camp and season for Lavoie – time is getting short fast.
Will any of these three forwards be legit impact players as Oilers? Maybe but no lock.
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I agree that Broberg is the “highest potential” on Pronman’s list and I think he will press up the lineup this year. He’s at a bit of a disadvantage with three legit NHL d-men, two legit top pairing guys, ahead of him on the left side. Its likely forcing him to the right side which isn’t ideal but damn if I don’t think he’ll run with that opportunity.
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Will one of Petrov, Savoie, Tulio, Berezkin, Wanner, Yeseyev pop and make it was a legit impact player?
I would suggest that Petrov and Berezkin have the highest ceilings but, of course, who knows when or if they’ll be able to translate.
Didn’t matter to Vegas that their prospect pool is nil. They’ve procured talent through trade and free agents. I’ll agree Pietro’s of the world aren’t likely coming here but 7 years with essentially no prospects playing for them shows not having bottom of the lineup talent bubbling under really isn’t the end all be all imo.
There’s more than one way to do it and using those assets to get an Ekholm is infinitely more useful than a guy who may be a passenger in the top 6 at best and a lottery ticket.
well said ! Prospects are just that …. Every draft, fans think “All” the players will be regular NHLers …. and the reality is, even some of the 1st rounders don’t make it … It’s great to have a pipeline, but what’s better? Winning Stanley 🙂
Yep.
Tampa Bay has been dealing picks and prospects for many years.
Cheveldayoff has been trying to build a winner through good drafting & development since I was still working for a living.
There is no doubt that good drafting is a benefit, just as good coaching, good trades, good cap management, rich owner, etc. are.
Once the McDavid and Draisaitl days are over Edmonton will probably have to shift their priorities back to draft and develop given the travel, weather and so on that are negatives.
I am not convinced that is top of the list for the next couple of years.
Chevy aged out his team and wouldn’t deal with internal issues
Now they’re done. Turtle Ken at least will move up from GM, but things are lining up for another burnt season. He’s going into the season self cap handcuffed with no realistic 4C (that they will use) and one viable RS C. And an inadequate 1RD
So he’s rolling the dice for the trade deadline. Not a great time to shore up. It’s time to add extra talent if you can, not plug holes. If he can create enough cap room which given how he talks about the cap I am not confident
You need an active and astute GM to successfully do what Vegas does
We haven’t had that consistently since Sather. Kenny is smart enough to know he isn’t a good trader. He gets some nice players but he pays plus and can’t restock. He knows conservative is what works for him
The amateur drafting hasn’t been as bad as before but isn’t great. Great is the only thing Connor and we deserve so here’s hoping Jackson gets it going that way
https://theathletic.com/4805966/2023/08/28/nhl-players-prospects-under-23-connor-bedard/?source=user_shared_article
somehow “can’t miss” prospect Brandt Clarke and “failing” prospect Broberg are in the same tier
It’s almost as if you didn’t read the synopsis of the why the players were ranked where they are.
Clarke is ranked “above NHL average” in all four categories.
Broberg ranked above average in skating, average in two but below average in hockey sense.
These lists are a snapshot in time and Clarke has two years of additional development time to move up the list.
I thought Elite D arrived early?
Not “Elite 20 year old D needs 2 additional years of development”?
Last season was his 19 year old season and he made the Kings out of camp.
What was Broberg doing when he was 19?
So making a team and getting sent back down at the age of 19 makes a player an Elite D now?
It is almost as if you didn’t or can’t read either, which is pretty bad when you accuse someone else of it. Pronman is saying this his assessment of how these players careers will unfold (ie. their potential) taking into account how he believes they will develop going forward, not based comparing them now.
And on top of that, you somehow missed that there were 5 categories not 4 and Clarke scored poor on skating. That skill being why he would have Broberg on the same tier despite not being rated as highly in the other categories. Apparently Pronman thinks skating is important. And that is the skill hardest to improve upon at this stage along with being the easiest to judge.
I read just fine thanks.
Yes Clarke’s skating style has always been an issue but has not prevented him from dominating at lower levels.
Where you are wrong is that skating cannot be improved as many NHL organizations employ professional skating coaches.
I recall when Bo Horvat broke into the league and his skating was roundly criticized but after a couple of seasons with a professional coach, it improved immensely.
Tsk tsk, again you have a reading comprehension problem. I never said skating can’t be improved. I just said it is the hardest thing to improve.
And Pronman knows all about what Clarke did in the OHL this year and knows what players and teams can work on to improve and still rated the two players potential roughly equal. You can disagree with Pronman, but that is your opinion not his. But that is generally your go to strategy, misrepresenting others writings.
No…hockey sense is the hardest thing to improve and often it can’t be…see Yakupov and Jesse for example.
LA has one of the pre-eminent skating coaches in the league and I’m pretty sure he can help.
https://www.robbyglantz.com/instructor-profiles/
Again, that’s your opinion, not Pronman’s. And for that we just need to refer to LT’s title for today’s blog, which rarely, if ever, applies to you.
Your appeal to authority is pretty weak sauce.
Fact is, skating can be improved dramatically and if you bothered to actually read the link I posted you would discover many players, like Sidney Crosby, work with skating coaches throughout their careers.
Insisting it’s the “hardest” thing to improve is the antithesis of an informed opinion.
Actually I did read the link before and saw nothing in it discussing whether skating is or isn’t the hardest skill to improve for an NHL player, only that it can be improved and sometimes quite a bit. There are links out there to all kinds of skill development coaches and clinics on being able to improve every kind of hockey skill and NHL teams have development coaches for all or some of these areas.
But I did go back and take a closer look though, and your claim that LA has one of the pre-eminent skating coaches in the league suffers from one significant flaw: Robby Glantz hasn’t worked for the Kings in over a dozen years and even at his private camps that he still runs, not a single current LA King has sought him out and is listed as a player he has coached. Nice work searching the internet for this nugget! Talk about weak sauce.
I seem to recall you saying repeatedly over the years that speed kills and fast, puck moving D are the future. Seems odd you are so quick to dismiss his poor skating, something you thought was always an issue, just because he dominated in a league against non-NHL skaters.
You may recall, for every Bo Horvat, there were also prospects who had promise but couldn’t improve their skating and fell out of the league.
I was noticing that Clarke’s draft+1 boxcars (55, 11-48-59, 1.07 P/GP) don’t look all that much better than Akey’s draft year boxcars (66, 11-36-47, 0.71 P/GP), despite Akey being blocked by Clarke himself. It’ll be interesting to watch Akey’s development, but achieving Clarke’s D+1 scoring rates shouldn’t be difficult.
Clarke exploded last year when sent back to junior scoring effectively 2PPG in both the regular season and playoffs.
That’s a pretty high bar to clear.
That was his draft+2, irrelevant for Akey this year.
Hard to judge since Clarke lost a season when the OHL shut down.
Wrong. He played in the Slovak Extraliga that year.
26 games to stay in shape…hardly a development year.
I remember one time that I was coaching soccer, and I kept moving the goalposts…it was hard to stay ahead of the game, but I just kept moving them every time the opposing side challenged. I eventually hurt my back. Moving the goalposts. I was doing acrobatics to make sure none of those opposing shots were on net. I eventually hurt my back. HH…careful that you don’t hurt your back too.
The Oilers do ‘need’ more prospects bubbling up, but their position is not unlike most other contending teams.
Pronman’s list has 168 names on it, so a bit more than 5 per team.
The number of listed prospects for each playoff team:
BOS – 0
CAR – 4
NJD – 8 (they are on the rise for sure)
TOR – 1
VEG – 1
EDM – 3
COL – 3
DAL – 5
NYR – 6
LAK – 4
MIN – 9
SEA – 6
TBL – 1
WPG – 5
NYI – 1
FLA – 2
The average is 3.7 prospects per playoff team. The average for the final four teams from the past 2 seasons is 3.1 per team. So the Oilers are a shade behind the average playoff/contending team but not by much.
This is a little misleading since not all prospects are of equal value.
For example, while NJD leads in raw quantity, it also has significant advantages in quality with potential elite or all star level prospects.
Pretty crazy that the Canucks have missed the playoffs essentially every year for the last decade and have no prospects to show for it.
HF still exists. Finding older posts is tough though – they’ve been through a number of format and I believe ownership changes over the years so search is pretty rough.
Still some posters we’d be familiar with over there.
If you are up by a goal going into the third period the answer is not always ….score the next goal.
Except that it is exactly the answer.
But what are you referring to?
Guys like Holloway and Broberg might be prevent the next goal, players, and they don’t seemed to be valued as much.
I really don’t think the Oilers are in that tough a spot. I mean after all they are legitimate cup contenders . There talent pool appears to be dwindling. But that comes with the position the team holds on to as, cup contenders. Most if not all of their talent is on the ice with the big club. However they still have a handful of prospects they can hang a hat on presently. We shall see what the future holds, win Lord Stanley’s cup, that’s what matters.
So with Broberg, the Oilers telegraphed the pick. In real time, we wondered why? He may play, but certainly does not look like an impact player one would hope for @ #8. History tells us the longer player takes to make the team or make an impact, that likely won’t happen (see waiting for Tyler Benson …) …. Broberg had all the tools but his hockey sense was questioned. Fair? He would skate an end to end rush, but rarely finish it ….
Holloway. Telegraphed the pick, went higher than most projected. Knock on him was his hockey sense. All the tools, but LT and others have been questioning if he will ever score enough at the NHL level. The longer we wait ………
Anyway, both excellent prospects – but they should be as 1st round picks …… Would have to consider this a massive year for both of them ….. I hope they are both on the team and playing good minutes …. if it ain’t this year, it may never be ….
McKenzie had Holloway ranked 16, the Oilers picked him #14.
https://www.tsn.ca/bob-mckenzie-s-final-ranking-lafreniere-the-surest-thing-in-most-uncertain-draft-year-1.1488272
This is the exact same verbal as Bouchard last year. Give him the opportunity to flourish and he’ll be fine. Even then it took till the trade deadline to clear the deck for Bouch. Alot can change in a year.
still waiting for Puljujarvi and Yamamoto to flourish too ….. oh wait …
Injury changes the equation. But you know that.
Fair point for context. Holland has a history of slowing playing prospects. Did it with Bouchard, again w/Broberg and now Holloway. Would seem to be too soon to write off anyone, but rather, give them opportunity and see what can happen. It’s go time for Broberg and Holloway.
And I see Reid Schaefer – the guy who clinched the Ekholm trade according to Holland – comes in at #133 on Pronman’s list. 😎
it does seem strange that both draisaitl and hyman were praising holloways elite hockey iq in training camp.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/blog-holloway-turning-heads-inside-oilers-locker-room/c-336056916
Broberg is right on schedule. The top part of the D class that year that was scorned by the public scouting services, but not by NHL teams is mostly arrivining right on schedule.
The same public scouting services that were wrong five years ago are wrong now.
Harley was sent bag to the AHL after playing fairly early because Bowness moved Heiskanen from right side to left. DeBoer took over and moved Heiskanen back to his off side on the right, and Harley is back on track.
I have definitely not given up on Broberg covering the bet as an 8th overall pick.
As Godot states, he’s been developing right on time. On the day of the draft it was known that Broberg was going to take likely 3 year before he was playing in the NHL and he’s progressed as expected in every year, injuries aside.
He was even progressing as expected last year until they needed to add Ekholm and Deharnais to the roster to solidify 2LD and help the PK.
Broberg was VERY good in Jan-Feb playing 14 minutes per game nightly with Bouchard. Yes, it was sheltered 3rd pairing minutes but that was the next step and he was killing it.