One of the key reasons the Edmonton Oilers are at a low ebb in prospect quality and quantity comes from the recent graduation classes. In the last two seasons, Stuart Skinner, Ryan McLeod, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Vincent Desharnais, Markus Niemelainen and Tyler Benson found their way to NHL employment. As we prepare for another season, things look different on the streets of Bakersfield.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers can boost their AHL prospect wingers
- Lowetide: Why Oilers still need to find inexpensive, effective depth players
- Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers rookies, led by Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Connor Brown and the Oilers’ aging skill wingers
- Lowetide: Making the early call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2019 NHL Draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 complete reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from new scouting director Richard Pracey?
- Lowetide: How will Tyler Wright’s time with the Oilers be remembered?
- Lowetide: Is trading Philip Broberg in the Oilers’ future?
- Lowetide: Unpacking Oilers’ decision to hire Rick Pracey, part ways with Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: 9 bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2023-24
- Lowetide: The NHL offseason’s 5 most risky moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: USHL has produced some of NHL’s top talent. Is it hockey’s best junior league?
- Lowetide: The Edmonton Oilers and their dilemma at centre
- Lowetide: NHL teams that are best positioned to take advantage of the 2024 free-agent watershed
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
If a prospect can establish himself as an AHL regular at 20, it bodes well for an NHL career, but does not guarantee it.
There are 20 players since 2011 who played successfully as AHL regulars age 20. They are: Teemu Hartikainen, Tyler Pitlick, Magnus Paajarvi, Martin Marincin, Martin Gernat, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Ethan Bear, Caleb Jones, Tyler Benson, Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Kailer Yamamoto, Dmitri Samorukov, Raphael Lavoie, Mike Kesselring, Philip Broberg, Dylan Holloway, Xavier Bourgault and Tyler Tullio.
The shocking number: 10 of the 20 came in the last four seasons. The men with the most impressive career arc (so far) turned pro during the Ken Holland era. His slow-playing approach keeps higher end players like Evan Bouchard in the minors for longer than previous management deemed necessary.
This coming season, I would expect Matvey Petrov, Jayden Grubbe and Max Wanner to join the list above. All three men would appear likely to play as rookies, with Petrov possibly landing in a feature role at times.
Pretty much everyone who is in the AHL past 21 is having some issues and may spend time meandering.
Raphael Lavoie fits this category like a glove. Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones also qualify. Lavoie didn’t use his feet or his body well enough upon arrival in Bakersfield, but turned it around post-Christmas the last two seasons. There’s no guarantees of making the opening night roster, and he could find the waiver wire this fall.
If you haven’t established yourself as a prospect by age 22, you’re in trouble. The players who will be successful have played at least some games in the NHL during entry deals.
This is an area that is more miss than hit. We can point to Laurent Brossoit, Jordan Oesterle and Jujhar Khaira as players who were able to shoot the gap.
Players who missed are names like Bogdan Yakimov, Filip Berglund, Kirill Maksimov and Ostap Safin.
Exceptions are college men, who often turn pro at 22.
Cooper Marody arrived in pro a little late and did everything required to get a full NHL chance. It didn’t come. Mike Kesselring belongs in this category, Phil Kemp too. Vincent Desharnais is the ultimate example. He hasn’t made the grade as an NHL player yet, but is on his way.
No matter what you and I think about a specific AHL player, the largest category of player in the minors is ‘tweener’.
Tyler Benson was a tweener, Cooper Marody, too. Incredible really, considering their freshman AHL seasons. Then again, Rob Schremp was a tweener and he posted some handsome AHL numbers as a young player.
If we make a list of rfa’s each summer, we can probably pick the cuts and be pretty close.
Most of the RFA’s will sign next summer no matter what happens in 2022-23. NHL RFA’s include Dylan Holloway, Raphael Lavoie, Philip Broberg. AHL RFA’s are Carter Savoie, James Hamblin, Markus Niemelainen, Noel Hoefenmayer, Cam Dineen, Ryan Fanti and Olivier Rodrigue. Players most in danger of getting walked are Fanti and Hamblin, but both men could post solid numbers
Dan Cleary, Fernando Pisani and Jason Chimera are the success stories in this study.
Evan Bouchard doesn’t qualify because he it was obvious he would eventually score in the NHL. The best example of a Cleary type in recent drafts is Ryan McLeod. Second round pick, no assurance of success, and he’s built a career in the NHL already while filling an important (3C) role.
Once again Brett Murray’s name shows up, this time in Kurt Leavins’ 9 Things article.
The kicker, was represented by Jeff Jackson….
Where I am concerned is why can’t this LW crack the Sabres line-up? IMO, LW is their weakest position.
Oiler Alert
@OilerAlert
Stauffer talking to Servalli sets the line for EDM trading their 2024 1st round pick in March at 97%.
“Keep an eye on the Oilers right side. That might give us a little bit of an indication as to what the team may or may not need..if they end up moving that 1st rd pick.”
The Right-Handed Ekholm.
That is the missing piece.
His name is Brett Pesce.
The question is…how do you get him?
Pesce is not a long term solution for Edmonton. East coast guy with an East coast wife. Eric Cole redux. We’re not spending our first on him.
I think the forwards on the farm look good for experienced call ups with Caggiula and Mckegg. I would like to see at least one Dman down there that has 100 or so NHL games.
Just to know you have a guy that will be able to kind of hang in the NHL if injuries arise. Niemo is somewhat proven to not be a disaster. Would be nice to have one more.
Speaking of Farm Workers, I thought I had posted a comment yesterday, but I must have mucked it up.
My comment is regarding Jayden Grubbe. He is likely at least 2 years away, but he is a player that has a lot going for him as the only RHC prospect in the system and it seems as if the 4C slot has his name all over it, let’s say he has no health issues, in 2 season.
LT mentioned that he could surprise and I concur. As much as Maximus has that potential amongst the blue prospects, for me Grubbe is similar. As much as all the low pick wingers we have discussed, Grubbe has so much value because of his position.
The development this off-season that has me very happy is the PTO of Brandon Sutter, not because I think he has a hope of making the team.
No, IMO opinion his value comes as a mentor to Grubbe. Both are similar in size, both are RHC, are RD Reb grads, and undoubtedly they have some form of relationship given the Sutter family links.
Regarding Grubbe, this player oozes defensive acumen, grit and perseverance. If he was able to impress seasoned hockey men enough to annoint him captain as an underager, that has to bear massive consideration. I am very excited about his addition to the organization.
I think he will likely end up on the roster ahead of schedule.
Lavoie was impacted by the pandemic, which meant his 2nd year was almost like a first year, and by a major injury at the end of the 2nd year which impacted his 3rd year.
Lavoie ended up playing 76 pro games in his first year pro – 51 in the 2nd tier Swedish League plus 19 in the AHL plus 6 in the AHL playoffs.
Sure, he was impacted but he likely got more development than many in his cohort.
His injury and rehab and missing camp for sure impacted this past season.
With all that said, there is a clear roster spot available for him – no matter what the path before was, its on him now.
I could see a Habs Oilers deal ( or a waiver pick-up) with Lavoie going home and given a honest opportunity and easily making the Habs team. The Oilers couldn’t even give Lavoie a cup of Coffee last spring shows me a red flag he pissed on someones cornflakes in the organization. Peterson, Gagner, Sutter and probably another PTO are the covers for injuries not any of the kids on the farm.
Highly doubt that’s why he never got a cup of coffee last year. They better give him some games this year before making a call either way.
If the Habs like what they see in Lavoie during preseason I could see Lavoie and a pick for either Monahan or Evans at 50% retained.
This is a lazy narrative that has been spewed since the 70’s. We’ve heard it a lot, but you don’t see many Quebecois actually get traded to the Habs.
A scan of that roster shows Gallagher, Josh Anderson, Armia and their 1st overall pick from 2022. That is arguably that team’s deepest position and the Oilers weakest.
The Oilers need Lavoie to make a statement. When looking at the Oiler’s PTO choices, which are two 34 year olds, one coming off of hip surgery and the other attempting a hockey comeback after several injury-riddled seasons and 2 years away from the game, you’d think Lavoie has an advantage.
Why hasn’t there been a push for Lavoie He was one of the last black Aces brought up for the the playoffs. When your employee is giving you the cold shoulder the writing is on the wall. I’m not the first to say Montreal or Ottawa will scoop him up on waivers or a trade. Our gracious host among many other knowledgeable analyst who have a pulse on the team have talked about this scenario. What’s your prediction on what happens with Lavoie?
Lavoie did end up finishing 90th in AHL scoring – 2 points behind teammate, Cam Dineen (a d-man).
He will be given every opportunity to make the team.
I noted in the video form today’s Captain practice that lined up with McDavid on one sequence.
The kid has a weapon of a shot, and 6’4” players like him will always be afforded a chance over a smaller player. The deck has been cleared with JP and Yamo out of the picture. This is his time to shine.
He wasn’t ready 2 seasons ago and last season he was recovering from injury in training camp. He was still finding his way in the AHL and finally finding the net on the regular. Lavoie is arriving exactly on schedule this season, as is Holland’s MO.
There is nothing negative going on with Lavoie, that is some kind of fiction.
Michael Matheson – Montreal
David Savard – St. Hyacinth
Rafael Harvey-Pinard -Sageunay
Samuel Montembault – Quebec City
Xavier Simoneau – St. Andre- Avallen
Nathan Legare – Montreal
Phillipe Maillet – Lachenaie
Logan Mallioux – Belle Riviere
William Trudeau – Varennes
Nicolas Beaudin – Chateuguay
The Canadiens system is awash in Francophones…and it is not an accident.
Lol HH … none of those Francophones are worth a 7th round pick.
Matheson, hardly inspires as a “Francophone name” and doesn’t support the narrative I am referring to. Savard would fit the narrative, but he was a UFA signing.
There have only been a handful of trade acquisitions in my memory that fit this ~45 year old narrative, the Vincent Damphousse deal with Edmonton being the most prominent in my mind. But with the Drouin trade also being right there.
FWIW, I had a look back over the last 23+ seasons at all the Canadiens’ trades and based on name alone the tally is 21 Franco’s incoming and 23 outgoing.
In looking at the possible depth options, it is clear that Ganer & Sutter at 34 years old are well-past their prime years, so I took a look across the league. The only other PTO’s listed over the age of 30 from youngest to oldest: Dzingle, Pysyk & Austin Watson – 31, Kassian, JF Berube – 32, Chiasson – almost 33, Aaron Dell – 34.
I then looked the numbers from last season. There were 39 forwards over the age of 33 last season and they played 65.5 games on average. Our elder statesman, the now 37 year old Derek Ryan, played in 80 games.
Also of note, of these 39 players, 16 were top 6 players on their teams. Interestingly, 11 of these 16 greybeards were among the 30 oldest players (all positions) to have played in an NHL game in 2022-23.
From the TBL account:
We have placed forward Josh Archibald on waivers for the purpose of terminating his contract.
“We wish Josh, his wife Bailey, and their entire family the very best in their future endeavors.” 🗣️ Julien BriseBois
————-
They just signed him to a 2-year deal (at a smidge over league min)…..
Sounds like Archie is stepping away from hockey for now. Hope he’s ok!
And Tampa signs Motte for $800K (previously on a PTO I think). That’s a great signing.
Archie was the only one that could hit the open net besides Kane. Hopefully Brown pots 3 or 4 that way.
Tough to be an empty net specialist.
His goal shares as an Oiler:
34.5%
43%
33.3%
He was atrocious defensively.
So I was looking at our cap issues over at cap friendly. By the deadline if there are no ltir we will have the cap to add a 1.2 million salary. Not exactly a killer unless you had 2 teams retain for a player in the 4 million salary range. My question for the crowd today is who is likely to go at the deadline, we will be close to dollar in dollar out same as last year.
Most likely Cody Ceci upgrade with Ceci heading back
With our lack of rhd wouldn’t kulak be the logical choice?
Currently capfriendly had both Pederson and Lavoie on roster and Niemo (over Broberg) and the Oilers over the cap with a 22 player roster.
Swap Niemo for Broberg and send down Lavoie (meaning 12F is league min) and I think the projection is for $2.1MM at the deadline – less if the 12F is Lavoie or another player over league min.
Of course, there will be injuries and this will all change.
I think Holland will try and not remove a material roster player but he may have to if he really wants to add.
Kulak and Ceci are options depending on how Broberg is developing and what role he may be able to take. With that said, it’s tough to see Holland moving out a legit NHL d-man at the deadline – he loves D depth – then again, he did it last year.
The answer has to be Foegele presuming Holloway is progressing as expected and and It would help if Lavoie is looking like at least a depth player and/or Bourgault or Tulio is pressing.
I do expect a healthy Foegele in a contract year to be a substantial player and potentially a duo with McLeod we don’t want to mess with. That’s the hope at least.
Well when looking at cap friendly it shows that we would have space for around 1.3 million in annual salary. Rough math is about 4.5 times the cap space on day 1 will be what’s available at deadline.
It seems like the options to move someone are the same options we all had to open up salary this summer.
My private hope is Skinner gets better and Campbell’s dead cat bounce is high enough to move him at the deadline.
NHL_Sid has an interesting take on this at ON:
https://oilersnation.com/news/who-should-get-the-oilers-12th-forward-roster-spot-in-the-opening-night-lineup
It is almost impossible to make a call now on what the deadline acquisition will be.
Injuries and how the roster shapes up will determine that. Most likely needs as of today look like 4th line C or RD, but maybe those things sort themselves out and we are in need of a goalie or a top six winger.
4th line c we will have the cap space for. Anything else will need to be an upgrade not an add.
Cap space, sure, but what about the cost. This past season the 4C rental cost a 4th rounder but also a B+ prospect on the verge of graduating.
Is Bjugstad a 4C now?
Well, he was acquired last year to play 4C/depth forward – behind McDavid/Drai/McLeod
Woody ending up mis-deploying him, as we saw in the playoffs, in conjunction with loading up McDavid/Drai (sigh) and thinking that Bjugstad could be a shutdown player against tough comp.
Was he acquired to be 4C? I’m not so sure. He certainly hasn’t been a 4C though his career (Minnesota being the only exception).
He did fail in his matchup against the Eichel line though. Kind of amazing how much ink him going 0-3 against Eichel (and 3-4 overall in the playoffs) has gotten.
Anyway, to the original point, I don’t think the price paid was for a ‘4C/depth forward’. And until those 3 goals against the Eichel line folks were pretty uniformly hoping the Oilers would re-sign the guy.
To be honest in assets out I figure we will see the first and second gone plus any prospects not nailed down for upgrades.
Off-topic but I would love for Matt Murray to get a clean bill of health during camp or early in the season to screw the Leafs cap situation. Not out of the realm of possibility according to some of the articles when he was put on LTIR.
I like the cut of your jib
Good for Murray, good for the Oilers
Love the thought but after some internet searching the question has been answered by Tyler Ball and the NHL.
I reached out and talked to the league and said ‘are you looking at this?’ and they basically said teams have to file medical documentation when someone goes on LTIR and there’s really only an investigation if the league thinks there’s something funny there. The last I heard the league wasn’t doing any kind of investigation. The thing agents and teams have said over the years is that most guys that have been in the NHL 8-10 years the way Murray has and have had as many injuries as he has, is it’s not that hard to find an injury to point to and say this guy shouldn’t be playing.
Yeah I get all of that and at the time he went on LTIR (early July IIRC) the Leafs would have gotten it cleared. However, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that someone competitive enough to play in the NHL and stay there, would attempt to come back if he felt he was healthy after a couple of months or more off. There were some media (may have been Hockey News) that speculated it’s not out of the realm of possibility for Murray. His injury or injuries may not been career ending – keep in mind he was cleared to play if needed in the playoffs in May. If the player wanted to come back in say November and got independent medical clearance, the Leafs would have no choice but to clear cap room to activate him or find a way to trade him.
I agree he is not done as an NHL player and if he chose to screw over the leafs there is a possibility. More likely I think is he takes the year to rehab and tries for another contract next July.
I agree, it’s not likely. Just thought it would be deserving for the Leafs if it did happen. A man can hope!
I hear you, anything that’s hurts Toronto is good. I still want to face them for the cup this year. To me this would be an epic series.
Ah, the Farmer Workers set piece. Hockey season has officially arrived!
The Captains Skate was only a harbinger, LT has now made the call.
Can Savoie re-establish himself as a “real prospect”?
When Phil Kemp gets the NHL recall will he be able to skate well enough to defend the rush at the NHL level?
Will Petrov be able to gain the trust of the coaches and post offensive numbers as a rookie pro?
Will Tulio join Bourgault in the conversation for mid-season call-up?
Will Rodrigue over-take Picard as the 1A?
These questions and many others will be answered on the next episode of…..?
…. As The Ice Turns…
….The Game of Our Lives….
Will Max Wanner have the normal struggles adapting to the pro game or will he push for top 4 minutes as the season goes on?
Can Jayden Grubbe have a development season like Noah Philp did last year (Philp started as a 4W/Extra and finished the season as a 1C)? Grubbe is a raw 20 year old where as Philp was 23 (I believe).
Will Jake Chiasson be able to pull a Tulio and really increase his stock in the organization? Gretzky admitted they thought Tulio might start the season in the ECHL and, as we know, ended up playing some top 6 minutes and impressing.
Bourgault will get his chance as soon as he’s strong enough physically and gets the pro game dialed in.
If Petrov’s head is on straight he can make the NHL because his best strength is the most valued one. And he can skate and has NHL size
To me the others have obstacles. Kemp is a smart player but may not skate well enough. Tulio is a good player but he’s very small (short and very light) for the NHL. Rodrigue is progressing but he’s short for an NHL goalie, there aren’t a lot of short goalies making it these days. To me all classic tweeners
Savoie is a wild card. He is short but he’s stocky, kinda like Kessel, and also a natural talented scorer. If he works his butt off the talent will get him to the league, somewhere
I’m not so sure that all of Savoie’s “stockiness” is good stockiness.
If Tulio can get up to 185, I think he can be a real player in the NHL, in due course – there is legit skill there to go along with the motor and smarts.