Some interesting conversations about Raphael Lavoie in the comments section this weekend. Some posters feel he’s a lock, or should be, for the opening night roster. Others feel he’ll have to earn it and there are more suitable candidates vying for the job. Me? I think Lavoie might be traded by opening night.
New for @TheAthleticNHL Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has been to hell and back as a member of the Edmonton Oilers. Is this year the one that makes everything worth it? https://t.co/PBkqvkmvGh
Boy oh boy. You do it every time. What do you mean?
Some think Lavoie should make the team, some think he has to earn it and so you conveniently come up with a different idea. Lame. I think there’s a chance he gets traded. I’m not saying he will.
Do you think he should break with the team? Absolutely, if he impresses throughout training camp, including late. I don’t think that’s too high a bar. He could be a scoring winger on a skill line by the deadline, or at least have seen some time there.
So you think the Oilers should keep him but believe there’s a chance they trade him? Yes. He’s not a strong fit for need and the team is trying to win Stanley.
What are the odds? I’ll say 70-30 he stays and breaks with the team, the 30 percent evenly divided between trading him and losing him/not losing him on waivers.
Is trading him at the deadline a better plan? I think it’s going to be tough to keep him on the roster all year but yes, deadline would be better.
Why are you so down on him? I’m not. If he plays so poorly he can’t make the roster, there’s a good chance no one picks him up. However, if he shows up at camp and plays anything close to what we saw down the stretch a year ago, we’re going to be watching him play his first NHL game this fall. I think Lavoie’s issue is with the roster construction more than anything.
What are his skills? He has a quick release and can find quiet areas. He moves his feet every shift and glides far less than when he turned pro. He’s a bull out there now, meaning he can push smaller men around, and does. Most important, Lavoie has shown he can learn and adapt. That’s a big part of his development.
Is this where you prattle on about ‘five years experience as opposed to one year’s experience five times?’ Yes, as a matter of fact, it is.
Always nice to hear the old hits. How much will he play? I’ve posted the reasonable expectations here, have him playing in 35 games and showing well offensively.
Do you like him as a player? Yes. I think he can be more effective on LW, but will likely show up on RW. I think he needs a fast start to training camp and he isn’t necessarily a fast starter but that may be bias from the injury return a year ago. That said, I think he has a real chance to make it in the NHL as a first-shot scorer.
Do you buy the contract thing being a big deal? It contributes to the 21-man roster being necessary, but if you make Lavoie the last roster player, then replace him with Drake Caggiula, you are still about $400,000 from being able to add another roster player.
His draft year was 2019. Was it a wasted draft? I think the Oilers’ scouts did well, although taking Philip Broberg out of order meant leaving much on the table. Having said that, Broberg will play, I believe Lavoie will, too. Matej Blumel has already played NHL games and for me Ilya Konovalov will see the world’s best league someday. That would represent a solid haul.
Not as good as 2018, though. That was an excellent draft (Evan Bouchard, Ryan McLeod, Mike Kesselring and Olivier Rodrigue has a chance), and the 2017 draft (Kailer Yamamoto, Stuart Skinner, Dmitri Samourkov, Phil Kemp) delivered some quality.
LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE
A busy afternoon on Sports 1440, we’ll be checking the waiver wire at high noon and on until 2. Sheil Kapadia from The Ringer will join us to talk about NFL Week One and the Monday nighter. Jason Gregor will talk Oilers final roster spot and more. @Lowetide on twitter, drop comments here and text 1.833.401.1440. See you on the radio!
I have no idea if there’s any legitimacy to this since I haven’t seen anything mentioned about lines at the Captain’s skates anywhere else.
But, this from The Hockey News is claiming to be projecting the lines base on new information. The lines listed are also (almost) the most obvious ones, so I dunno.
Yeah, even if this is legit I’m not sure I see any reason to panic.
Colorado’s opening night lineup in 21-22 included Darren Helm, Sampo Ranta and Jayson Megna up front as well as Ryan Murray and Jack Johnson on the back end. Johnson actually played top 4 that night.
Janmark-Ryan-Gagner is far from ideal, but it’s not that bad. And it’s also highly unlikely to be the 4th line come playoff time.
Kane – Mc David – Brown – excellent 1st line
RNH – Draisaitl – Hyman – excellent 2nd line
Holloway – McLeod – Foegele – good 3rd line
Janmark – Ryan – who knows – not really a NHL line but a couple of pieces that could become a workable 4th line with a trade that should be possible at some point during the season.
Extras – not really seeing them – maybe Lavoie, maybe Bourgault plus a list of vets we all know that don’t thrill any of us.
——————-
Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak – excellent left defence
Ceci, Bouchard, Desharnais – two #4’s and a PK specialist/fringe #6/7?
Broberg – time to find out. If he isn’t at least a #4 by the TD I think we see him moved.
Skinner – good, steady, not yet in his prime
Campbell – streaky, top 15 or bottom 5 – he has both in his tool kit
For me, I think that reading anything in to combos at captain skates two weeks prior to camp opening is silly.
I’m also going to have a hard time taking seriously a piece that opens talking about McDavid/Brown as a pair making sense because of chemistry in junior a decade ago.
Also, it was reported by Gregor that Brown also skated with Drai, in addition to McDavid which wasn’t noted (either due to lack of being up to speed or because it doesn’t propagate the author’s chosen McDavid/Brown narrative).
Not a mention of Lavoie and citing Caggiula as a legit 12F contender…..
I’m skeptical of the article too, though THN should be reputable I’d have thought. I thought about not posting because it didn’t appear to be particularly informed, though again, the writer claimed it was based on the Captain’s skates.
With their new ownership and advanced young talent pool, it’s very likely the Senators become a force sooner rather later.
They’ve locked up all their young stars to long term deal before the cap jumps which should pay off handsomely.
DieHard
September 11, 2023 2:10 pm
Let’s just say for “shits and giggles” that Lavoie has a really good camp and finds himself on McDavid’s wing. Just shoot the puck kid and be responsible.
How then would you all organize the bottom 6?
Yes, I would be concerned about Holloway not getting enough minutes.
As an aside, as Holloway proved last season (not that it needed more proof, it was already proven) an high skilled prospect producing in exhibition season doesn’t really mean much as far as being ready for the NHL regular season, let alone the NHL top 6.
Hate to do it, but I have to agree with HH here. He is seriously injured and already missed an entire year, including the playoffs where they were looking to defend the title. This is not Kucherov/Stone reappearing in the same season playoff drive in top form. Even if he comes back in the playoffs he will be well out of game shape.
I don’t think anyone thinks he’s faking it or is not out long term on merit.
The issue, and the sole issue for me, is if he “isn’t ready” for game 82 of the regular season but is ready for game 1 of the playoffs. Just like Mark Stone wasn’t ready for the last game of the regular season but was ready 3-4 days later – please.
My position is that any player that is on LTIR to finish the season should not be eligible for the 1st round of the playoffs.
We all know Landeskog is injured – not saying he’s faking it today.
But to just put out that the goal is to have him ready for the playoffs after a full season of LTIR is something that has to be addressed.
How do you know he won’t be ready by February and the Avs will just stash him away? I don’t know that – and no one else knows that. But not having something to prevent this from happening is cap circumvention.
If you didn’t play any regular season games, you should not be able to play any post season games. Otherwise, who’s to say that more teams won’t do this.
And Colorado saying that essentially – THAT’S OUR GOAL today is circumvention.
Chicago, Tampa and now Vegas have used this to their advantage. It’s time to close the loophole.
This situation is different in that Mike Smith still wasn’t available to play in last year’s playoffs.
This was similar to the current Matt Murray scenario. If Matt Murray suddenly announces he is healthy enough to play the Leafs are in trouble, as would have the Oilers have been if Smith had come back before the end of last season.
Not to mention that Elliotte Friedman is on record, multiple times, about how effed up Mike Smith’s body was and how he still can’t believe that Smith was able to play in the playoff games.
His year long LTIR was indeed legit and, of course, he didn’t magically get healthy for game 1 of the playoffs.
Comparing cap circumvention for the playoffs such as Mark Stone or Kucherov, and an aging veteran not being able to finish his contract are two wildly different situations.
The fact you brought this point up in rqltion to Landeskog, only shows how ridiculous this situation and your opinion are.
No – I’m not the homer you make me out to be. Oilers are one of a couple of teams I follow closely and the author of this blog and the people who post here keep me coming back for the conversation. And that includes you when you’re actually trying to be objective.
At no point last year did Smith ever contemplate coming back and at no time did the Oilers even mention it. Didn’t stop some from wondering if he could, but at no time was it a consideration.
What makes this different is Colorado having I don’t know, the audacity or the stupidity to state this as a goal – which is basically saying that they want to circumvent the cap if they can come the playoffs.
And since they are far from a stupid organization, it makes the statement that much more brazen.
“In April, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reported the NHL had warned teams that it was watching for any questionable transactions. BriseBois confirmed Saturday the NHL investigated the Lightning’s handling of Kucherov’s contract and found that no rules were broken.
“When you place a player on long-term injury and get the salary cap exemption and this year, in particular, the NHL investigated I believe all of the LTIR requests. I know they investigated the Nikita Kucherov one,” BriseBois said. “We had to be able to justify the surgery, the rehab time, the return to play clearance to make sure everything was done according to the rules and according to the circumstances. Those were the cards that we were dealt and that’s how we handled it.”
The league’s doctors can’t be trusted to make these kinds of decisions because they will always give you more time if you say you need it. They will always err on the side of caution. Have you ever heard of a doctor that turned down a patient who asked for a disabled parking pass? Me either.
For what has become a laughable disregard for the rule you need to do something like what they did for flipping the puck into the stands from in the defensive zone. Nothing arbitrary. No grey area. Just shut it down and make the penalty for circumvention too painful to risk.
This is so ridiculous I almost thought it was fake news. They are essentially telling the league, “we are going to circumvent the cap, just a head’s up”. Unbelievable!
I guess the Oilers should just guarantee a playoff spot by February, then let McDavid and Drai “heal” for a month before playoffs start.
Having an extra 20mil in cap space at the deadline would be amazing….and apparently….completely fair.
One suggestion I’ve read that helps is to maintain the cap through the playoffs for each game. You can exceed the cap in terms of the players available but the roster you dress for a particular game cannot exceed the cap for that season.
That is not a perfect solution but it is simple to enforce and understand.
If a player is on LTIR to end the season, it means they’ve been out for 24 days AND 10 games (if there is less than 10 games/24 days remaining, LTIR is not available).
If a player finishes the season on LTIR, he’s not eligible for the first round.
For me, that essentially solves the issue (which is a player not being activated during the regular season when healthy).
The having the cap apply to the playoff roster doesn’t really work for me as there are so many things that go in to the cap calculation – including retained salaries, bonuses overages, buyout hit and, of course, the annual cap hits of a roster may be over the cap but the team could have been cap compliant (i.e. they acquired a big salary 3/5 of the way through the year so were not on the hook for the entire annual cap hit).
Certainly if you finish the season on LTIR – but have not been out the entire 24 days and 10 games, it should carry over into the playoffs.
I would think there needs to be another part to this to avoid using full season LTIR as a weapon. The “Kucherov-Landeskog” rule.
For those who have used LTIR for the entire season, you need to put something in along the lines of a minimum number of games played during the regular season in order to be eligible for the postseason.
USA Hockey does this with youth leagues. To be eligible for season ending tournaments, a player has to play in a minimum number (it used to be a percentage but now it’s a flat number). You can apply for a waiver, but your local governing board must approve it.
Certainly if you finish the season on LTIR – but have not been out the entire 24 days and 10 games, it should carry over into the playoffs.
This cannot happen – if there is less than 10 games/24 days left in the season, players are no longer eligible to go on to LTIR.
For those who have used LTIR for the entire season, you need to put something in along the lines of a minimum number of games played during the regular season in order to be eligible for the postseason.
I don’t really agree with this as the playoffs are close to 2-month long. It is feasible that a player is not ready for a game in the first round but is a couple of series later.
My concern is when a player is all of a sudden ready to play game 1 of the playoffs when they weren’t ready 3-4 days prior during the regular season.
Chuck Noland
September 11, 2023 11:39 am
It’s appropriate at this time of the year to discuss tinkering at the edges.
But the rubber meets the road on Friday March 9th.
100% guaranteed the Oilers are pushing all in this season.
Holland will be busy setting up at least a few potential deadline deals all the while seeing how the season rolls out; Who steps up and who takes a step back?
He will decide at the deadline which positional addition gives his team the best chance of success moving forward,.
We know his preference is to trade for high skill with term.
IMO it’s going to be something like Raphael Lavoie plus for Sean Monahan.
Or being forced to sign a rental at a high premium like Brett Pesce
Or to default to a rental at a lower premium like Sean Durzi.
The market on Right D is tight.
But Kenny is Savvy; Expect the unexpected…. Chris Tanev?
jp
September 11, 2023 11:24 am
Strangely, this article about betting odds for the upcoming season has not been posted yet (Oiler content).
Bet on Colorado to win the Presidents Trophy. This came down to the last game of the season but they did.
Bet on Colorado to win the cup. They did.
Bet on Vegas to win the cup. They did.
Leaning toward Dallas winning this season which at current odds would be a very nice payday and make another significant contribution to the scotch supply.
However, the major upgrades Carolina made to its D is giving me pause and they may trade Brett Pesce for a scoring forward which could put them over the top.
YYCOil
September 11, 2023 10:47 am
The Oilers development process for non top 10 draft picks seems to be,
1.Play their U20 year in juniors/college
2.Play their U21 year in Bakersfield
3.Play 20 ish NHL games in their U22 year
4.Struggle getting them slotted in the NHL in their U23 year
Out of curiosity, who are you seeing that’s followed this path?
OriginalPouzar
September 11, 2023 10:46 am
Do you buy the contract thing being a big deal? I
It coud have been but, as of right now, its not.
When he signed it, there was a chance that the extra apx $100K over league min could have been a factor – there may not have been enough cap space to keep him as the 12F over a Lane Pederson.
As it has played out, that is not an issue right now. There is room for Lavoie over a league min player. Sure, accruing the daily portion of that $100K would be nice but that will not be prohibitive of a roster spot. If he earns it, and he should, there is cap room for him.
OriginalPouzar
September 11, 2023 10:43 am
If the Oilers to trade Lavoie and a 4th, or Jake Chiasson, for Jake Evans at 50% retained, is that a bad outcome?
Lavoie would be an overpay for a marginal 4th line 27YO NHLer that is always injured and doesn’t have much consistent offense. You are trading a big likely top 6 scorer for an old tweener. Chiasson yes
I’d trade any player except Connor for the right return. I think the Oilers need to stop paying high almost every time. Have to leave something for the future at some point
Lavoie would be an overpay for a marginal 4th line 27YO NHLer that is always injured and doesn’t have much consistent offense. You are trading a big likely top 6 scorer for an old tweener. Chiasson yes
If Lavoie cannot make the Oilers this season, he is a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, coming off a good but not great AHL season (90th in scoring), with zero NHL games, that has once again been cut from NHL (in favor of a tweener).
That player is not a “big likely top 6 scorer” – that player is not even a tweener.
Jake Evans is not a tweener – he’s been a full time NHL player for 4 seasons. Does he have limited upside? Of course, but he’s an established NHL center.
So trade what every team wants in a winger prospect that was projected 1st round and fell for a limited undersized player that gets hurt a lot? Maybe for a similar quality RS D or C. That’s my issue
If he cannot make the Oilers over the likes of Gagner, Pederson and Sutter he is not the player you are describing – he’s barely a prospect at that point.
OriginalPouzar
September 11, 2023 10:42 am
Some interesting conversations about Raphael Lavoie in the comments section this weekend. Some posters feel he’s a lock, or should be, for the opening night roster. Others feel he’ll have to earn it and there are more suitable candidates vying for the job. Me? I think Lavoie might be traded by opening night.
I don’t think I fit in to either category. I don’t feel like he’s a lock (or that he should be a lock) and I also don’t think there are other more suitable candidates.
I think he should prove to be a lock with his play during camp and win the spot.
I feel like the “ideal” path forward is for Raphael Lavoie to prove to be an NHL player and continue to develop in to a solid middle six player or even a real impact player and I think he will have the opportunity to do so.
At the same time, I’m not positive the organization feels the same. I have a feeling they are hoping that Brandon Sutter or Sam Gagner win the job. I don’t think there is anything personal against Lavoie but I think the organization still values “veteran depth for the win now mode” as opposed to allowing a prospect on the cusp to show he can make an impact.
At the end of the day:
1) Sam Gagner is turning 35 and coming off double hip surgery and admitted that he is still not 100% and up and till a few weeks ago, wasn’t sure he would be ready for a camp. He has not hockey trained, he has re-habbed. He is also not a center, he’s not big, he’s not fast, he’s not a faceoff guy, he’s not a plus defensive guy (but has improved), he is not a plus PK guy (but can provide some depth PK minutes). He’s an NHL player but he will not provide an impact on the ice;
2) Brandon Sutter has the ultimate skill set (big, right shot center, history of playing well defensively against tough comp, plus faceoff guy, plus PK guy, some skill) but, at the same time, is turning 35 and hasn’t played in two year due to dealing with long term health issues and, lets not forget, was barely hanging on at 32 before the healthy issue; and
3) Lane Pederson is a soon to be 26 year old tweener.
I mean, maybe the org wants one of the two end of career vets to “win the day” but, at the end of the day, its up to Raphael Lavoie – the 6’4, 215 pound, right shot, elite shooter with some jam that can skate.
Its up to Lavoie to win that job. If he can’t do it, I hope its on him and not the org making a mistake.
Stop gap aging vets are not going to help against Vegas and Colorado.
The OIlers need more players and more depth. Kostin could shoot the damn puck. Lavoie can shoot the damn puck. Kostin made more of an impact against Vegas tha Bjugstad.
The Oilers still have to many pass first guys, and guys who can only score from the blue paint. For a collapsing D, like Vegas, one needs to be able to shoot the puck.
The OIlers need more players and more depth. Kostin could shoot the damn puck. Lavoie can shoot the damn puck. Kostin made more of an impact against Vegas tha Bjugstad.
Kostin didn’t play many minutes, but I think he’ll be missed in the bottom six. He really could shoot the puck.
His most common linemate was Janmark.
Janmark and kostin. 63.6% GF.
Janmark without Kostin 37.5%
Kostin without Janmark 53.33%
Still, I wonder whether Yzerman bought high there, and whether Holland was correct not to pay Kostin $2M x 2
Kostin is a bit of an interesting player.
On the one hand he skates well, is tough as nails, and is an above average shooter in the NHL.
On the other hand, Woodcroft really throttled his minutes, so there were things he didn’t like in his game, notably defensive awareness and structural play.
Kostin shot 19.6% last season which is certain to regress. He’s still an above average shooter. I have a lot of tape in my mind of him beating goalies clean from distance.
These fringe guys seem to have a different career arc, so I could see your point.
Lamborghini Perlini comes to mind. Both big guys who can skate and shoot, but lack the type of defensive awareness that gets the coach’s trust.
Kostin scores 11 goals in 57 games in his draft plus six season.
Perlini scores 12 goals in 46 games in his draft plus five season. Played 23 games in the NHL the following season, then fell out of the league (though he has a PTO).
Scoring peaks at 25, so these types of players that can skate and shoot, but not much else, don’t last long.
Unlike Perlini, Kostin could drop the mitts, so he’ll probably stay in the league a bit longer.
Kostin can shoot, but he hasn’t scored much in previous years and/or at lower levels. I think that’s a big red flag.
Perlini scored more goals (14) in his 17 AHL games as a 20 year old than Kostin did in his best pro season (OK Kostin also scored 14 across 48 AHL and 4 NHL games in his best year). But you need to go back to the U16 and U17 Russian leagues to find Kostin looking like a goal scorer.
His season really looks like a major heater both in PDO and in shooting percentage. Maybe he can keep it up, but he sure looks like a classic candidate for major regression.
That said, I don’t think he’s likely to play himself out of the league like Perlini did or anything.
You have said in the past on many occasions training camp doesn’t matter. Now all of a sudden Lavoie has to be Superman to make the team while your boy Yamo and Holloway were treated like Royalty in their initial training camps.
I’ve said, and I continue to maintain, that a prospect cannot prove NHL readiness in training camp – performance in NHL exhibition games doesn’t mean much as far as regular season games – we saw the perfect example last season with Dylan Holloway – many projecting 25G and 50P based off of exhibition season. We said it with Rattie. We saw it with Puljujarvi. Heck, we saw it with Ryan McLeod (who some thought should make the NHL as a teenager because he looked good at camp).
Camp, of course, is important for these players to earn the opportunity to prove NHL readiness in the NHL season.
Like Holloway last year, Lavoie can earn a roster spot.
If he does that, the next challenge starts to see if he’s an NHL player in actual NHL games.
Your speaking out of both sides again. If you can win a spot up for grabs in training camp then yes it does matter. If the roster is already predetermined which It seems more and more likely since Holland and Woody love their veterans which is a big tell for Lavoie’s future in Edmonton.
Your speaking out of both sides again. If you can win a spot up for grabs in training camp then yes it does matter.
Please, for the love of adonai, please read the damn post.
Reja
September 11, 2023 10:27 am
I expect to see Lavoie play with a chip on his shoulder and also bring some nasty this Preseason. Lavoie and his Agent are both well aware how league wide
G.M’s salivate over possible power forwards who generally take time to fill out. Lavoie is turning 23 in a couple of weeks, it’s go time for him. I wonder what his weight is coming into camp? It has to be close to 210.
Relatedly, there’s been a little talk about Tullio’s size lately too. He’s listed as 5’11” 180 or 181 on Elite Prospects and theahl.com (up from 165 when he was drafted).
Yes I did. I hadn’t seen he gained weight until Bruce Curlock’s ON piece. At least he’s in the convo now of having a shot because of his drive and smarts. Also needs really good boots to make it work
One of the videos on the Oilers site of the captain’s skates (the 2nd one) shows Lavoie on a forward line with McDavid as well. And you are right that McDavid and others will certainly pass on their thoughts on Lavoie.
Benign Bone
September 11, 2023 9:23 am
This is a touch off-topic but since it has come up numerous times the past few weeks, I wanted to put forward a name that I haven’t seen much mention of.
While I don’t imagine there’s any much chance of such a deal getting done this season, I think the answer to the “RD Ekholm” question is Jared Spurgeon. His numbers continue to absolutely sparkle across the board as a subtle and effective two-way RD and he’s an EDM native. The only two risks I see are that:
a.) like Ekholm, he’s already at the age where the decline will often start to steepen and
b.) he hasn’t found playoff success (whether that’s on him & his size or his team)
Otherwise, he’s a consistent two-way D with high-level defending that’s signed for another 3 years. If MIN stumbles this year, they would still have another year on the Parise/Suter buyouts to worry about and would have a full season of data on Faber as the succession plan for Spurgeon to go alongside the further development of their young D (Hunt, Lambos, Spacek, alongside Addison). It might be exactly the right time for them to move Spurgeon.
If a deal for him can include retention to get him down to 6.25 to 6.75mil and include Ceci going the other way, I think it could be workable if a major injury opens up some extra cap space. At the very least, it seems possible in the offseason.
He’s turning 34 on November and is signed for 4 seasons. He’s been one of the most under-rated players of his generation (in my opinion) but I’m not touching that contract, even if the Oilers could get it down to $6.5MM (which would cost more assets).
Yes, I am one that also has concern about Ekholm regressing during the current term of his contract so, ya, Spurgeon is way too much risk for me.
I can’t see how the Oilers could add a contract like that knowing the players that will need signifigant raises in 2-3 years (Drai, Bouch, McDavid – let alone anyone else that does pop).
I have no idea if there’s any legitimacy to this since I haven’t seen anything mentioned about lines at the Captain’s skates anywhere else.
But, this from The Hockey News is claiming to be projecting the lines base on new information. The lines listed are also (almost) the most obvious ones, so I dunno.
https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/edmonton-oilers/analysis/oilers-projected-forward-lines-based-on-captains-skate
I was the one telling everyone to calm down about our fourth line.
Janmark / Ryan / Gagner
Yeah, even if this is legit I’m not sure I see any reason to panic.
Colorado’s opening night lineup in 21-22 included Darren Helm, Sampo Ranta and Jayson Megna up front as well as Ryan Murray and Jack Johnson on the back end. Johnson actually played top 4 that night.
Janmark-Ryan-Gagner is far from ideal, but it’s not that bad. And it’s also highly unlikely to be the 4th line come playoff time.
Kane – Mc David – Brown – excellent 1st line
RNH – Draisaitl – Hyman – excellent 2nd line
Holloway – McLeod – Foegele – good 3rd line
Janmark – Ryan – who knows – not really a NHL line but a couple of pieces that could become a workable 4th line with a trade that should be possible at some point during the season.
Extras – not really seeing them – maybe Lavoie, maybe Bourgault plus a list of vets we all know that don’t thrill any of us.
——————-
Nurse, Ekholm, Kulak – excellent left defence
Ceci, Bouchard, Desharnais – two #4’s and a PK specialist/fringe #6/7?
Broberg – time to find out. If he isn’t at least a #4 by the TD I think we see him moved.
Skinner – good, steady, not yet in his prime
Campbell – streaky, top 15 or bottom 5 – he has both in his tool kit
What did I miss?
That’s most of it. I don’t think the bar for Broberg not being traded is that high though.
For me, I think that reading anything in to combos at captain skates two weeks prior to camp opening is silly.
I’m also going to have a hard time taking seriously a piece that opens talking about McDavid/Brown as a pair making sense because of chemistry in junior a decade ago.
Also, it was reported by Gregor that Brown also skated with Drai, in addition to McDavid which wasn’t noted (either due to lack of being up to speed or because it doesn’t propagate the author’s chosen McDavid/Brown narrative).
Not a mention of Lavoie and citing Caggiula as a legit 12F contender…..
I’m skeptical of the article too, though THN should be reputable I’d have thought. I thought about not posting because it didn’t appear to be particularly informed, though again, the writer claimed it was based on the Captain’s skates.
Who’s top 9 is Lavoie projected on Ottawa are Montreal.
Unlikely, have you taken a moment to actually look at their depth charts?
He should at least fetch a decent pick if they are projecting him there though.
Condors come to the Saddeldome here in Calgary twice this season (just once last year).
November 14, 15 (15th conflicts with an Oilers game)
March 19, 20 (19th conflicts with an Oilers game)
Looking forward to these!
Oilers content on puckdoku.com today.
Got me a Stan Weir sighting for my troubles.
I didn’t quite manage, but I’d almost bet all mine squares could have former Oilers.
Sean Tierney from Sportlogiq has been hired as Director of Analytics for the Sens.
I think Sportslogiq is elite so my non-expert thought is this is probably a strong hire.
test
Likely a strong hire – Sportlogiq is elite:
Sean Tierney
@ChartingHockey
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I’m thrilled to share that I’m joining the @Senators
as Director of Analytics.
I’ll miss all of the bright, talented, and hard-working people I worked with at @Sportlogiq
. Thanks for everything, it has been a pleasure.
Can’t wait to get started! #GoSensGo
Cool hire.
With their new ownership and advanced young talent pool, it’s very likely the Senators become a force sooner rather later.
They’ve locked up all their young stars to long term deal before the cap jumps which should pay off handsomely.
Let’s just say for “shits and giggles” that Lavoie has a really good camp and finds himself on McDavid’s wing. Just shoot the puck kid and be responsible.
How then would you all organize the bottom 6?
Foegele/McLeod/Brown
Jamark/Holloway/Ryan
Yes, I would be concerned about Holloway not getting enough minutes.
As an aside, as Holloway proved last season (not that it needed more proof, it was already proven) an high skilled prospect producing in exhibition season doesn’t really mean much as far as being ready for the NHL regular season, let alone the NHL top 6.
That works for me. Maybe we have 2 3rd lines. Anyway, nice group of bottom 6 players for injury cover in top 6.
LOL – its starts:
@DailyFaceoff
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Colorado Avalanche hope Gabriel Landeskog can return by playoffs http://dlvr.it/Svy0cW
Where have we seen this before.
No one will say it, but you can take it to the bank he’ll be skating by February and playoff ready come April. Book it.
This is blatant cap circumvention.
Nonsense.
Landeskog is recovering from very serious cartilage transplant surgery.
If you’re suggesting he is somehow faking it, you would be very wrong.
Whether or not he is able to perform in the playoffs is, at best, a longshot.
Hate to do it, but I have to agree with HH here. He is seriously injured and already missed an entire year, including the playoffs where they were looking to defend the title. This is not Kucherov/Stone reappearing in the same season playoff drive in top form. Even if he comes back in the playoffs he will be well out of game shape.
There was only one other pro player, a baseball player whose name I don’t recall, who had this same surgery and he was forced to retire.
Grady Sizemore, but not sure that was exactly the same surgery.
I don’t think anyone thinks he’s faking it or is not out long term on merit.
The issue, and the sole issue for me, is if he “isn’t ready” for game 82 of the regular season but is ready for game 1 of the playoffs. Just like Mark Stone wasn’t ready for the last game of the regular season but was ready 3-4 days later – please.
My position is that any player that is on LTIR to finish the season should not be eligible for the 1st round of the playoffs.
Thank you for saying it better than I could.
We all know Landeskog is injured – not saying he’s faking it today.
But to just put out that the goal is to have him ready for the playoffs after a full season of LTIR is something that has to be addressed.
How do you know he won’t be ready by February and the Avs will just stash him away? I don’t know that – and no one else knows that. But not having something to prevent this from happening is cap circumvention.
If you didn’t play any regular season games, you should not be able to play any post season games. Otherwise, who’s to say that more teams won’t do this.
And Colorado saying that essentially – THAT’S OUR GOAL today is circumvention.
Chicago, Tampa and now Vegas have used this to their advantage. It’s time to close the loophole.
LTIR is heavily policed by the league’s doctors.
I imagine you would have a different view if an Oiler player was involved.
Was Mike Smith too frail to play or was the last year of his contract cap circumvention?
This situation is different in that Mike Smith still wasn’t available to play in last year’s playoffs.
This was similar to the current Matt Murray scenario. If Matt Murray suddenly announces he is healthy enough to play the Leafs are in trouble, as would have the Oilers have been if Smith had come back before the end of last season.
Cap circumvention can take many forms.
It’s quite possible the Oilers gave him a two year contract with the understanding he would only play one in an effort to keep his cap hit down.
I’d say that is pretty much a given.
When other teams do it it’s cheating. When we do it it’s nothing but praise for how Old Dutch is the greatest G.M.
Not to mention that Elliotte Friedman is on record, multiple times, about how effed up Mike Smith’s body was and how he still can’t believe that Smith was able to play in the playoff games.
His year long LTIR was indeed legit and, of course, he didn’t magically get healthy for game 1 of the playoffs.
Comparing cap circumvention for the playoffs such as Mark Stone or Kucherov, and an aging veteran not being able to finish his contract are two wildly different situations.
The fact you brought this point up in rqltion to Landeskog, only shows how ridiculous this situation and your opinion are.
No – I’m not the homer you make me out to be. Oilers are one of a couple of teams I follow closely and the author of this blog and the people who post here keep me coming back for the conversation. And that includes you when you’re actually trying to be objective.
At no point last year did Smith ever contemplate coming back and at no time did the Oilers even mention it. Didn’t stop some from wondering if he could, but at no time was it a consideration.
What makes this different is Colorado having I don’t know, the audacity or the stupidity to state this as a goal – which is basically saying that they want to circumvent the cap if they can come the playoffs.
And since they are far from a stupid organization, it makes the statement that much more brazen.
I just read the other day that teams file papers and they aren’t looked at unless necessary
It is the NHL
“In April, Sportsnet’s Chris Johnston reported the NHL had warned teams that it was watching for any questionable transactions. BriseBois confirmed Saturday the NHL investigated the Lightning’s handling of Kucherov’s contract and found that no rules were broken.
“When you place a player on long-term injury and get the salary cap exemption and this year, in particular, the NHL investigated I believe all of the LTIR requests. I know they investigated the Nikita Kucherov one,” BriseBois said. “We had to be able to justify the surgery, the rehab time, the return to play clearance to make sure everything was done according to the rules and according to the circumstances. Those were the cards that we were dealt and that’s how we handled it.”
Circumvention – as was Keith’s retirement in a different way.
Yes.
The league’s doctors can’t be trusted to make these kinds of decisions because they will always give you more time if you say you need it. They will always err on the side of caution. Have you ever heard of a doctor that turned down a patient who asked for a disabled parking pass? Me either.
For what has become a laughable disregard for the rule you need to do something like what they did for flipping the puck into the stands from in the defensive zone. Nothing arbitrary. No grey area. Just shut it down and make the penalty for circumvention too painful to risk.
Do you have a source or anything to back up your claim that the league’s doctors are “heavily policing” LTIR?
It’s with those betting odds he posted a while back, as well as that homework that my dog ate.
of course not lol
As they say, “hope is not a strategy”.
High likelihood Landeskog’s career is over.
This is very likely true.
This is so ridiculous I almost thought it was fake news. They are essentially telling the league, “we are going to circumvent the cap, just a head’s up”. Unbelievable!
I guess the Oilers should just guarantee a playoff spot by February, then let McDavid and Drai “heal” for a month before playoffs start.
Having an extra 20mil in cap space at the deadline would be amazing….and apparently….completely fair.
The league needs to figure this out.
Exactly.
Agreed. You can’t have teams doing this year after year. The league needs to restore some integrity to their cap regulations.
How would you do this without scrapping LTIR?
One suggestion I’ve read that helps is to maintain the cap through the playoffs for each game. You can exceed the cap in terms of the players available but the roster you dress for a particular game cannot exceed the cap for that season.
That is not a perfect solution but it is simple to enforce and understand.
If a player is on LTIR to end the season, it means they’ve been out for 24 days AND 10 games (if there is less than 10 games/24 days remaining, LTIR is not available).
If a player finishes the season on LTIR, he’s not eligible for the first round.
For me, that essentially solves the issue (which is a player not being activated during the regular season when healthy).
The having the cap apply to the playoff roster doesn’t really work for me as there are so many things that go in to the cap calculation – including retained salaries, bonuses overages, buyout hit and, of course, the annual cap hits of a roster may be over the cap but the team could have been cap compliant (i.e. they acquired a big salary 3/5 of the way through the year so were not on the hook for the entire annual cap hit).
Certainly if you finish the season on LTIR – but have not been out the entire 24 days and 10 games, it should carry over into the playoffs.
I would think there needs to be another part to this to avoid using full season LTIR as a weapon. The “Kucherov-Landeskog” rule.
For those who have used LTIR for the entire season, you need to put something in along the lines of a minimum number of games played during the regular season in order to be eligible for the postseason.
USA Hockey does this with youth leagues. To be eligible for season ending tournaments, a player has to play in a minimum number (it used to be a percentage but now it’s a flat number). You can apply for a waiver, but your local governing board must approve it.
Something like this would maintain cap integrity.
Otherwise, why bother having a cap?
This cannot happen – if there is less than 10 games/24 days left in the season, players are no longer eligible to go on to LTIR.
I don’t really agree with this as the playoffs are close to 2-month long. It is feasible that a player is not ready for a game in the first round but is a couple of series later.
My concern is when a player is all of a sudden ready to play game 1 of the playoffs when they weren’t ready 3-4 days prior during the regular season.
It’s appropriate at this time of the year to discuss tinkering at the edges.
But the rubber meets the road on Friday March 9th.
100% guaranteed the Oilers are pushing all in this season.
Holland will be busy setting up at least a few potential deadline deals all the while seeing how the season rolls out; Who steps up and who takes a step back?
He will decide at the deadline which positional addition gives his team the best chance of success moving forward,.
We know his preference is to trade for high skill with term.
IMO it’s going to be something like Raphael Lavoie plus for Sean Monahan.
Or being forced to sign a rental at a high premium like Brett Pesce
Or to default to a rental at a lower premium like Sean Durzi.
The market on Right D is tight.
But Kenny is Savvy; Expect the unexpected…. Chris Tanev?
Strangely, this article about betting odds for the upcoming season has not been posted yet (Oiler content).
https://theathletic.com/4849522/2023/09/11/nhl-futures-best-bets-predictions-win-totals/
Dom counselled betting on the Oilers to win the cup last season too. Didn’t work out.
Throwing stones in glass houses now HH? When was the last time you said something that actually “worked out”?
Haven’t you been following all of the imaginary bets he won through his imaginary bookies?
Meanwhile he still hasn’t paid bets he lost on this site.
Bet on Colorado to win the Presidents Trophy. This came down to the last game of the season but they did.
Bet on Colorado to win the cup. They did.
Bet on Vegas to win the cup. They did.
Leaning toward Dallas winning this season which at current odds would be a very nice payday and make another significant contribution to the scotch supply.
However, the major upgrades Carolina made to its D is giving me pause and they may trade Brett Pesce for a scoring forward which could put them over the top.
The Oilers development process for non top 10 draft picks seems to be,
1.Play their U20 year in juniors/college
2.Play their U21 year in Bakersfield
3.Play 20 ish NHL games in their U22 year
4.Struggle getting them slotted in the NHL in their U23 year
Out of curiosity, who are you seeing that’s followed this path?
Do you buy the contract thing being a big deal? I
It coud have been but, as of right now, its not.
When he signed it, there was a chance that the extra apx $100K over league min could have been a factor – there may not have been enough cap space to keep him as the 12F over a Lane Pederson.
As it has played out, that is not an issue right now. There is room for Lavoie over a league min player. Sure, accruing the daily portion of that $100K would be nice but that will not be prohibitive of a roster spot. If he earns it, and he should, there is cap room for him.
If the Oilers to trade Lavoie and a 4th, or Jake Chiasson, for Jake Evans at 50% retained, is that a bad outcome?
That would be a great deal.
A bad outcome. Vegas is deep. The Oilers need more players who can make an impact.
Both Dallas and Colorado are deeper than they were last season.
Dallas is too old. 10 guys will be 30+ by the time playoffs start. Fun while it lasted.
you got that wrong… it’s only a problem if these players are Oilers but since it’s Dallas it’s surely perfect ;)…
It’s coaching. That’s how average players make a helpful difference
Also playing the players who can play the best at the time
Lavoie would be an overpay for a marginal 4th line 27YO NHLer that is always injured and doesn’t have much consistent offense. You are trading a big likely top 6 scorer for an old tweener. Chiasson yes
I’d trade any player except Connor for the right return. I think the Oilers need to stop paying high almost every time. Have to leave something for the future at some point
If Lavoie cannot make the Oilers this season, he is a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, coming off a good but not great AHL season (90th in scoring), with zero NHL games, that has once again been cut from NHL (in favor of a tweener).
That player is not a “big likely top 6 scorer” – that player is not even a tweener.
Jake Evans is not a tweener – he’s been a full time NHL player for 4 seasons. Does he have limited upside? Of course, but he’s an established NHL center.
So trade what every team wants in a winger prospect that was projected 1st round and fell for a limited undersized player that gets hurt a lot? Maybe for a similar quality RS D or C. That’s my issue
If he cannot make the Oilers over the likes of Gagner, Pederson and Sutter he is not the player you are describing – he’s barely a prospect at that point.
I don’t think I fit in to either category. I don’t feel like he’s a lock (or that he should be a lock) and I also don’t think there are other more suitable candidates.
I think he should prove to be a lock with his play during camp and win the spot.
I feel like the “ideal” path forward is for Raphael Lavoie to prove to be an NHL player and continue to develop in to a solid middle six player or even a real impact player and I think he will have the opportunity to do so.
At the same time, I’m not positive the organization feels the same. I have a feeling they are hoping that Brandon Sutter or Sam Gagner win the job. I don’t think there is anything personal against Lavoie but I think the organization still values “veteran depth for the win now mode” as opposed to allowing a prospect on the cusp to show he can make an impact.
At the end of the day:
1) Sam Gagner is turning 35 and coming off double hip surgery and admitted that he is still not 100% and up and till a few weeks ago, wasn’t sure he would be ready for a camp. He has not hockey trained, he has re-habbed. He is also not a center, he’s not big, he’s not fast, he’s not a faceoff guy, he’s not a plus defensive guy (but has improved), he is not a plus PK guy (but can provide some depth PK minutes). He’s an NHL player but he will not provide an impact on the ice;
2) Brandon Sutter has the ultimate skill set (big, right shot center, history of playing well defensively against tough comp, plus faceoff guy, plus PK guy, some skill) but, at the same time, is turning 35 and hasn’t played in two year due to dealing with long term health issues and, lets not forget, was barely hanging on at 32 before the healthy issue; and
3) Lane Pederson is a soon to be 26 year old tweener.
I mean, maybe the org wants one of the two end of career vets to “win the day” but, at the end of the day, its up to Raphael Lavoie – the 6’4, 215 pound, right shot, elite shooter with some jam that can skate.
Its up to Lavoie to win that job. If he can’t do it, I hope its on him and not the org making a mistake.
Stop gap aging vets are not going to help against Vegas and Colorado.
The OIlers need more players and more depth. Kostin could shoot the damn puck. Lavoie can shoot the damn puck. Kostin made more of an impact against Vegas tha Bjugstad.
The Oilers still have to many pass first guys, and guys who can only score from the blue paint. For a collapsing D, like Vegas, one needs to be able to shoot the puck.
Did you know that Colorado employed 35 year olds Darren Helm, Andrew Cogliano and Jack Johnson when they won the Cup?
Playmaking wingers need to be elite or you want a physical shooter. Top 6 players always need the ability to pass skate and make plays
Ive had more than enough of muffin shooters as we covet the prospects teams that get it draft. Like Dallas
Look at what a difference Kane made. Revolutionary in our top 6. I hope he keeps going
Kostin didn’t play many minutes, but I think he’ll be missed in the bottom six. He really could shoot the puck.
His most common linemate was Janmark.
Janmark and kostin. 63.6% GF.
Janmark without Kostin 37.5%
Kostin without Janmark 53.33%
(both had better FF% apart.)
I’m really interested to see how Kostin fares in Detroit.
He had the worst xGF% of any Oiler who played 200 minutes last year.
He also hasn’t scored goals like that before. His best goal scoring season at any prior level was 13 in 48 games in the AHL a couple of years back.
Of course he can shoot the puck, and he brings other things as well.
Still, I wonder whether Yzerman bought high there, and whether Holland was correct not to pay Kostin $2M x 2.
Kostin is a bit of an interesting player.
On the one hand he skates well, is tough as nails, and is an above average shooter in the NHL.
On the other hand, Woodcroft really throttled his minutes, so there were things he didn’t like in his game, notably defensive awareness and structural play.
Kostin shot 19.6% last season which is certain to regress. He’s still an above average shooter. I have a lot of tape in my mind of him beating goalies clean from distance.
These fringe guys seem to have a different career arc, so I could see your point.
Lamborghini Perlini comes to mind. Both big guys who can skate and shoot, but lack the type of defensive awareness that gets the coach’s trust.
Kostin scores 11 goals in 57 games in his draft plus six season.
Perlini scores 12 goals in 46 games in his draft plus five season. Played 23 games in the NHL the following season, then fell out of the league (though he has a PTO).
Scoring peaks at 25, so these types of players that can skate and shoot, but not much else, don’t last long.
Unlike Perlini, Kostin could drop the mitts, so he’ll probably stay in the league a bit longer.
Kostin can shoot, but he hasn’t scored much in previous years and/or at lower levels. I think that’s a big red flag.
Perlini scored more goals (14) in his 17 AHL games as a 20 year old than Kostin did in his best pro season (OK Kostin also scored 14 across 48 AHL and 4 NHL games in his best year). But you need to go back to the U16 and U17 Russian leagues to find Kostin looking like a goal scorer.
His season really looks like a major heater both in PDO and in shooting percentage. Maybe he can keep it up, but he sure looks like a classic candidate for major regression.
That said, I don’t think he’s likely to play himself out of the league like Perlini did or anything.
Kostin should of been resigned he’s hitting peak form. Holland needed to get rid of some dead wieght and Kostin was the cost.
Yeah, we will see.
I’m going to go out on a limb and say ‘yes’ and ‘yes’.
You have said in the past on many occasions training camp doesn’t matter. Now all of a sudden Lavoie has to be Superman to make the team while your boy Yamo and Holloway were treated like Royalty in their initial training camps.
No, I never said training camp didn’t matter.
I’ve said, and I continue to maintain, that a prospect cannot prove NHL readiness in training camp – performance in NHL exhibition games doesn’t mean much as far as regular season games – we saw the perfect example last season with Dylan Holloway – many projecting 25G and 50P based off of exhibition season. We said it with Rattie. We saw it with Puljujarvi. Heck, we saw it with Ryan McLeod (who some thought should make the NHL as a teenager because he looked good at camp).
Camp, of course, is important for these players to earn the opportunity to prove NHL readiness in the NHL season.
Like Holloway last year, Lavoie can earn a roster spot.
If he does that, the next challenge starts to see if he’s an NHL player in actual NHL games.
Your speaking out of both sides again. If you can win a spot up for grabs in training camp then yes it does matter. If the roster is already predetermined which It seems more and more likely since Holland and Woody love their veterans which is a big tell for Lavoie’s future in Edmonton.
Please, for the love of adonai, please read the damn post.
I expect to see Lavoie play with a chip on his shoulder and also bring some nasty this Preseason. Lavoie and his Agent are both well aware how league wide
G.M’s salivate over possible power forwards who generally take time to fill out. Lavoie is turning 23 in a couple of weeks, it’s go time for him. I wonder what his weight is coming into camp? It has to be close to 210.
He was already listed at 215 or 216 on Elite Prospects and on theahl.com.
Relatedly, there’s been a little talk about Tullio’s size lately too. He’s listed as 5’11” 180 or 181 on Elite Prospects and theahl.com (up from 165 when he was drafted).
Yes I did. I hadn’t seen he gained weight until Bruce Curlock’s ON piece. At least he’s in the convo now of having a shot because of his drive and smarts. Also needs really good boots to make it work
Thanks probably around 220 that’s a big boy to deal with.
Does anyone have a link to the podcast release of The Lowdown? I can not track it down.
I listen to 1440sportsam on Spotify
They are all here
https://shows.acast.com/the-lowdown-with-lowetide/episodes/the-lowdown-with-lowetide-sept-9-hour-2
And here
https://twitter.com/DeclanKrueger/status/1700916076174057706
Lavoie was invited to the captain skate. that’s a positive sign. I’m sure the captain will have his evaluation for the coaching staff etc.
One of the videos on the Oilers site of the captain’s skates (the 2nd one) shows Lavoie on a forward line with McDavid as well. And you are right that McDavid and others will certainly pass on their thoughts on Lavoie.
This is a touch off-topic but since it has come up numerous times the past few weeks, I wanted to put forward a name that I haven’t seen much mention of.
While I don’t imagine there’s any much chance of such a deal getting done this season, I think the answer to the “RD Ekholm” question is Jared Spurgeon. His numbers continue to absolutely sparkle across the board as a subtle and effective two-way RD and he’s an EDM native. The only two risks I see are that:
a.) like Ekholm, he’s already at the age where the decline will often start to steepen and
b.) he hasn’t found playoff success (whether that’s on him & his size or his team)
Otherwise, he’s a consistent two-way D with high-level defending that’s signed for another 3 years. If MIN stumbles this year, they would still have another year on the Parise/Suter buyouts to worry about and would have a full season of data on Faber as the succession plan for Spurgeon to go alongside the further development of their young D (Hunt, Lambos, Spacek, alongside Addison). It might be exactly the right time for them to move Spurgeon.
If a deal for him can include retention to get him down to 6.25 to 6.75mil and include Ceci going the other way, I think it could be workable if a major injury opens up some extra cap space. At the very least, it seems possible in the offseason.
He’s turning 34 on November and is signed for 4 seasons. He’s been one of the most under-rated players of his generation (in my opinion) but I’m not touching that contract, even if the Oilers could get it down to $6.5MM (which would cost more assets).
Yes, I am one that also has concern about Ekholm regressing during the current term of his contract so, ya, Spurgeon is way too much risk for me.
I can’t see how the Oilers could add a contract like that knowing the players that will need signifigant raises in 2-3 years (Drai, Bouch, McDavid – let alone anyone else that does pop).