The Edmonton Oilers have 21 roster spots and the 20 names above look to be locks. Injuries aside, this roster is known to all of us. We’ve been arguing over the 21st man for about six weeks now, and at this point best to just wait and see if Raphael Lavoie wins the final spot. In the meantime, let’s blue sky the opening night lineup.
THE ATHLETIC!
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins remains key to Stanley Cup pursuit
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could get moved early or late in 2023-24
- Lowetide: How the Edmonton Oilers can boost their AHL prospect wingers
- Lowetide: Why Oilers still need to find inexpensive, effective depth players
- Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers rookies, led by Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Evander Kane, Connor Brown and the Oilers’ aging skill wingers
- Lowetide: Making the early call on the Edmonton Oilers’ 2019 NHL Draft haul
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 complete reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from new scouting director Richard Pracey?
- Lowetide: How will Tyler Wright’s time with the Oilers be remembered?
- Lowetide: Is trading Philip Broberg in the Oilers’ future?
- Lowetide: Unpacking Oilers’ decision to hire Rick Pracey, part ways with Tyler Wright
- Lowetide: 9 bold Edmonton Oilers predictions for 2023-24
- Lowetide: New Oilers CEO Jeff Jackson promises innovation. What will it look like?
- Lowetide: For Oilers in 2023-24, a more aggressive in-season approach is likely
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
CERTAIN UNCERTAIN AND DISTANT BELLS
The certains are above, no real use debating it. It’s also established this team is at 21-men to start the season and that probably sticks depending on player movement all year. A Jack Campbell trade could clear up some issues and ease the pending Connor Brown big gulp next year. Let’s look at the uncertain list, increasing by two names since we last looked.
Brandon Sutter moves up from distant bell status and Adam Erne arrives via this week’s PTO. I find the handling of Sutter most interesting. It tells me that Lane Pederson’s shot at the opening night roster is low, which is good news if you’re a Bakersfield winger. It also suggests that if Sutter isn’t the guy, Holland may cast about on the waiver wire and via trade to get something done in the middle. The need is a RH center who can PK. I don’t believe it’s Sutter, but we’ll see. Now, ladies and gentlemen, the distant bells.
There’s plenty of future here, and I could place Phil Kemp in the uncertain pile, but this looks right to me. The strongest possible futures belong to (imo) Matvey Petrov, Carter Savoie, Jayden Grubbe, Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio, Max Wanner and Olivier Rodrigue.
POSSIBLE OPENING NIGHT ROSTER
- Kane-McDavid-Brown
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman
- Foegele-McLeod-Lavoie
- Janmark-Holloway-Ryan
- Nurse-Bouchard
- Ekholm-Broberg
- Kulak-Ceci/Desharnais
- Skinner (Campbell)
I don’t believe this roster will be the winning entrant, but it does allow the team to house the youth who could outrun their inexpensive contracts (Lavoie, Holloway, Broberg, Desharnais) and that’s important. Going the other direction (sending down Janmark, Holloway and Lavoie) we get this roster which comes in $7500 under the cap:
- Kane-McDavid-Brown
- Nuge-Draisaitl-Hyman
- Foegele-McLeod-Gagner
- McKegg-Sutter-Ryan
- Nurse-Bouchard
- Ekholm-Broberg
- Kulak-Ceci/Desharnais
- Skinner (Campbell)
Not a chance in hell, but it can be done if the Oilers eschew their own youth. I think all of Holloway, Lavoie and Broberg make the team.
At noon today, Sports 1440, we hit the ground running as the weekend draws near. Guests include bagged milk from Oilers Nation, Joe Giglio from Audacy will talk Philadelphia Eagles in front of their big game with the Minnesota Vikings tonight. @Lowetide on twitter, drop comments here and text 1.833.401.1440. We’re getting great reaction to the show, thanks for listening!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=enuOArEfqGo
I post this when our host uses this blog title
Danish National Symphony Orchestra with the theme to The Good, The Bad and the Ugly
124 million views on Youtube since it was recorded in 2018
Ekholm was on Rishaug’s podcast and was very complimentary of Bouchard’s overall defensive game – knocking down pucks, positionally, etc.
Who was the last hockey player to go on a podcast and trash a current teammate?
There is a vast amount of space between trashing a teammate and going on at length praising a certain aspect of a teammate’s game with reference to specific skills.
The Oilers are so going with Sutter this year.
It is his turn in the old center, played my best years elsewhere, but the coach trusts him on the PK, 4C, great in the dressing role.
2022 Bjustad
2021 Bassard/Turris/Sceviour
2020 Turris
2019 Gagner
2018 Brodziak
2017 Jokinen/Cammalleri
2016 Desharnais
2015 Letestu
2014 Gordon
2013 Action, Hendricks and Gorden
Hey, you take that back! Sam Gagner’s best days were not elsewhere.
It seems pretty clear to me that their hope is that Sutter is close to the player he was in his prime and they can sign him as 4C.
Of course, the likelihood he is even close to that player seems slim and I hope they aren’t so blinded by “skill-set” that they don’t see the “better player” in Lavoie (presuming he does indeed show well).
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
#Avs appear to be examining options on the goalie market. Sounds like Pavel Francouz has not completely recovered from his offseason adductor surgery and there is concern he will miss some time.
Francouz made just 16 starts for the Avalanche last season.
And every time I’ve mentioned that Francouz is always broken and not reliable you had a problem with it
Considering he has only 3 seasons as a backup in the NHL, it’s pretty difficult to say he “is always broken”
He did manage to play 7 playoff games in the 21/22 playoffs and has a cup ring for his troubles.
Well he’d have played four seasons if he hadn’t missed the entire 20-21 season due to… being injured.
Avalanche are going to be reeling when Georgiev turns back into a pumpkin this year.
Career .912 2.51 GAA 191 NHL GP
So we agree he had a career year last season. Nice.
Before last season he had an .908 and the average save % over that period was .909%.
Worse than average. Last season he went to .919 while save % dropped to .904%. Look out for the regression.
HH coming over to scream “But what about Jack Campbell!” In 3…2…1…
Jack Campbell is in the same range – career .910 – was higher before last year’s clear one-off disaster.
Bob MacKenzie out with his top 16 rankings for the 2024 draft.
https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/macklin-celebrini-leads-big-three-atop-bob-mckenzie-s-tsn-pre-season-nhl-draft-ranking-1.2007499
I know we are cup or bust but I am having a hard time reading the tea leaves for our younger players. It sure looks like Holland has chosen kulak over developing broberg which may end with broberg getting traded. Holloway has a better path but is likely staying on the 4th line while players like Ryan get more 5v5 minutes. Again I can see this leading to a trade of Holloway. The trades this year will all upgrades not add-ons for the deadline.
I think Holloway is the perfect 3rd forward for the McLeod/Foegele duo. Ryan can play there as well, obviously, but that line has the potential to be so so so so good if you add Holloway’s size and speed and motor and aggressiveness and skill.
Managing Ryan’s load is also a thing as they’ll need him for the PK and the playoffs.
My concern is he sits and rots at 7 min a game on the 4th. Last season showed me Woodcroft will play vets over rooks same as any coach with the directive to win.
Nothing wrong with young players getting limited minutes. Bouchard sat for 35 games during his “rookie” season. He is turning out just fine.
We could of used him in the Jets series the one we lost 3 in OT. Evan was high pedigree not some scrub. Its like saying Larry Murphy would of turned out better if he sat in a Motel 6 watching Diehard movies instead of being properly developed. This was plain and simple bad asset management.
Holland and Woody like their Veterans makes it easy-peasy for them the team basically coaches itself. Myself I believe you need a influx of young talent playing regularly and like Lowetide mentioned getting their at bats. How nice was it to see Kostin emerge last year crashing, banging, sticking up for his line mates also being a threat to score.
Nice write up this morning LT. Three things, firstly if they want to get Broberg going, the obvious thing to do is, play him alongside his countryman, Mattias Ekholm. Judging from what Ekholm has to say about Bouchard, there should be no problem pairing him with Nurse. That should be the ultimate usage for three solid defensive pairs, Kulak & Ceci being the third and Desharnais being the seventh. Secondly, as you say, all they want from their fourth line center is that he’s a RHC and that he’s solid on the PK, those are two qualities, Brandon Sutter has excelled at for his entire career. He still most likely can do that in his sleep. Thirdly, they’re a veteran lineup. I can see one of Holloway or Lavoie making the opening night lineup, but not both. Heck they could even go with Adam Erne as a bottom six winger and go with a complete veteran forward group.
Holloway is likely a lock on this team – his current floor is a top 10 forward on this team.
I don’t see any reason why they can’t have Holloway and Lavoie on the team as opposed to Holloway/Gagner or Holloway/Sutter or Holloway/Pederson
Holloway is in the Kane Brown Hyman type of player that this team values a ton and is pretty much a guarantee for the roster
Vets, most of the time get the benefit of the doubt over rookies. Woodcroft certainly likes his veteran players so did Tippett. Do you think they want to use Ryan as the 4c? Yes they could go with the two young guys. If that happens Lavoie will have to knock it out of the park.
Curious why your think Sutter can be a solid 4C and PK in his sleep. He was injury prone and slow for 3 years prior to missing the last 2 with Covid. It’d be cool if he could, but man I wouldn’t want to bet a cup or bust season on that
Have you heard of veteran savvy. He’s made an NHL career as a RHC and PK specialist. Do you think he’s forgotten how to play hockey? He has a clean bill of health and the role he’s expected to play isn’t overly taxing. I’m optimistic, you can be as pessimistic as you want, doesn’t matter to me at all.
I don’t think he’s forgotten how to play but the question is if he has the physical ability to play and that was in question 3 years ago as he regressed.
I look forward to seeing him at camp.
As I say I’m optimistic.
So, your preference is for Brandon Sutter to win a roster spot and have Lavoie waived and cut?
Of the eleven ‘certain’ forwards listed I see eight who could ‘certainly’ have some role on any contending team, one promising prospect (Holloway) and two players that I think are less than ideal but are vets on inexpensive (and buryable) contracts.
Of the seven ‘certain’ dmen listed I see five who would ‘certainly’ have some role on any contending team, one promising prospect (Broberg) and one player who is fringe but has value for the PK and is on an inexpensive (and buryable) contract.
Of the two ‘certain’ goalies I think Skinner is a good young goalie who could ‘certainly’ have some role on any contending team – probably 1B – and a veteran who is in serious need of a bounce back year or replacing.
This team is close. Personally I think that if Lavoie does make the team either Janmark or Ryan should be at risk of being waived as and when Holland can find a stronger 4C – preferably before January.
That’s an interesting thought exercise but I’m not so sure it stands up to scrutiny when looking at the depth charts of actual contending teams.
If we take Carolina as a good example of a true contender and include cap hit as part of the equation, things look a little different.
Carolina has almost a million in free cap space with a full 23 man roster.
At their cap hits, I doubt any Oiler D would make the Hurricanes roster.
The same is likely true for the goaltending duo as the Carolina pair which is both more experienced and come in combined at a cap total less than Campbell alone.
The forward depth is a little murkier but would raise the question of how much depth the Hurricanes would sacrifice to add to their top 6.
If the Canes were blessed with either Leon are Connor the last 6-7 years they would have won multiple Cups.
Perhaps.
That would depend entirely on how much depth they would have to sacrifice to fit those cap hits.
Likely they would make room for one but not both.
They have an analytics department. There are lots of good players, just have to identify the cheap ones, and find more when they get paid
Holland does the obvious and pays so he can’t get there. Better, yes. Enough? I’m not seeing it
Yep.
Not only an analytics department but Tulsky is also AGM and Head Pro Scout.
And I’m not seeing it either.
Did I mention cap hit?
No, I didn’t.
No but I did and it is absolutely relevant to your assertion that 5 Oiler D would be “certain” to have a role on any contending team.
Certainly not on Carolina.
Very unlikely on Vegas, Boston, New Jersey or Rangers.
Questionable on Colorado, Dallas, Florida and only third pairing.
Likely Tampa but I’m not sure they’re real contenders any longer.
Please provide sources who contend that the Oilers are not a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
I’ll wait.
This team can easily win the Cup. Vegas had the luckiest Cup run since advanced stats started getting published. If the Oilers get half of that luck they can hoist at year’s end.
Easily…heh.
Plan the parade.
That defense is exactly what I’d like to see presuming a good camp from Broberg.
I would love to see that forward deployment except I don’t have any confidance that Woody would commit to that 4th line getting even close to 10 minutes a night and with Holloway unlikely to get any real special teams minutes, I don’t think its enough ice.
Given that, I think you need to run Holloway at 3LW and have Ryan center Janmark and Lavoie.
Of course, as I’ve mentioned, I’m not positive the org isn’t hoping for Sutter over Lavoie – lets hope Lavoie doesn’t give that choice.
I also flip the Drai and McDavid (McDavid/Hyman and Drai/Brown are my pairs).
He’d probably commit to it if Sutter was in the middle. LOL
I agree that Bourgault, Tulio and Kemp are distant bells but I would be surprised if Kemp and Bourgault didn’t play NHL games this season.
The goal for Bourgault, in my opinion, is to impress during the first half of the season in Bako to the point that he jumps the AHL vet/tweener group (Malone, Hamblin, Pederson) for that forward call-up.
I think Tulio has a chance to join Bourgault in that conversation but he’s coming from a bit farther back – he’s a player though.
If they didn’t bother giving Lavoie a opportunity who was ready then why would they give distant bells some games. Even if we have injuries Holland has Jurco, Hass, Ernie, Kahun, Green, Kulikov etc on speed dial.
By the time that Lavoie looked to even warrant consideration, the Oilers were battling for first place in the division (and conference) and preparing for the playoffs. Finding cap room (i.e waiving and sending down a roster player) in order to test-drive a prospect based on a 18 game stretch is not what teams prepping for the playoffs generally do.
Lavoie was right where he needed to be, finally seeing some consistent success and being a go-to player as a professional
I could name Dozens upon Dozens of players that were called up in the last 1/4 of season or less who made good and huge impacts in the playoffs over the years. You make it sound like this doesn’t happen just because Holland doesn’t do it. Starting with Ken Dryden, Moog or Tikkanen how about Caulfield and 50 other names. Man you sure like using that excuse they’re fighting for 1st place or a playoff spot or this or that.
Dino Ciccarelli became a cult hero in the 1980 playoffs. It’s all on utube.
You’re off your rocker Reja.
Yamamoto played 2RW as a rookie in the bubble.
Bear played 1RD as a rookie all that season.
McLeod played 2C as a rookie against Winnipeg.
Holloway played his 1st NHL game in the conference final for Woodcroft/Holland.
Bouchard played 2RD that season/playoff as a (basically) rookie.
Skinner was the playoff starter as a rookie this season.
And some examples from Holland back in Detroit:
Anders Eriksson won a Cup in 98 as a rookie regular on D
Jiri Fischer was a regular as a rookie age 19 and 20, then won a Cup as 2LD age 21.
Darren Helm was a rookie regular on their 2008 Cup run.
(You know this, you’ve mentioned Helm a bunch of times)
For whatever reason you’re making something out of nothing here.
You didn’t read the last 1/4 of the season part. McLeod’s the only one Holloway reference is laughable. I’m talking about one of our A prospects whose on fire is 22 and had has been known to go on a long scoring streak come Playoff time going back to Junior. This man needed to see games last spring and a NHL cheque as well. Why do you think there’s no verbal on him by the organization? I already know the answer. Stay tuned.
Don’t mention former 23rd overall pick Wyatt Johnson who played 82 games as a 19 year old and scored 24 goals and 41 points.
This cannot be done on a contending team.😮
You mean aside from Holland mentioning him, I believe, in each of his last 2 interviews?
“Don’t confuse me with the facts. My mind is made up,”
— Earl Landgrebe
Fact-Tyler Wright no longer works for my team.
I look forward to even one example that is even remotely similar to a contending team, on a role down the stretch and competing for playoff positioning, waiving a current roster player to find the cap room to bring up a 22 year old AHL player with zero NHL games because of a good 15-20 game stretch in the cap era.
I remember your citing that Holloway would have won the Oilers a playoff series a few years back based on Caufield’s performance.
Most teams aren’t playing with a 21 man rosters whose fault is that? Your man was screwing the pooch your not winning a Cup when your 2nd line skilled winger has 10 Goals and 15 assists.
as per usual, a post irrelevant to the conversation.
I agree with this and have to have confidence that Lavoie does win that spot but I suspect the organization is hoping that Brandon Sutter wins the spot.
Don’t get me wrong, unless we truly see close to prime Brandon Sutter (which isn’t a reasonable proposition), I feel this should be Lavoie’s spot to lose but I think the org does want a true center and true defensively responsible PK, FO center.
Come on Raphael, make it impossible to waive you.
I’ll be pissed if Lavoie is put on waivers after camp due to a spot given to an old past their prime veteran. Last year Ryan Murray was signed (disaster). Before that it was Kyle Turris (disaster). Starting to see a bit of a trend here.
There were a lot of other signing that you seem to have glossed over!
I would agree generally unless its due to Lavoie simply not performing at camp and earning the spot. I presume he has a solid exhibition season but, if he doesn’t……
It’s crazy how much time and conversation has been spent on the 12th forward spot, but it is important. The bottom 6 players have some versatility, and a good third line is a necessity. I seem to recall Foegele-McLeod-Ryan as being able to keep up their end of the bargain last year. Not sure Janmark-Holloway-Lavoie is the optimal 4th line though. 4C needs to be capable, and with all due respect, I don’t really see any strong candidates on PTO Island currently.
I think the Oilers will regret not going after Michael McLeod . Not sure if they did or didn’t try.
NJ had his rights and NJ re-signed him on July 1.
Sure, any player can be traded for an over-pay but its not like the Oilers “missed out” on an available player here.
I feel the fourth line is less important than the fourth centre. This player must be versatile, good on the dot, and able to PK.
Souds like a whole lot of BS. Brandon Sutter. See what I did there. LOL
That’s it. I’m done. I’m out of here.
Vegas has four lines and no fourth line. The OIlers need forwards who are hockey players, not diversity.
I agree.
The bottom 6 was gold last season – 74-60 goals with McDavid and Drai off the ice. That is the depth that wins championship. With that said, the Oilers have lost Kostin, Bjugstad and even Shore from the end of season bottom six and replaced them with, well, internal development in Holloway and the hope for an end of career player to help or a graduating B+ prospect to help.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Lavoie could be a player and an impact player and I suspect that Holloway will, as a floor, be a solid/plus 3LW in short order, however, the depth is depleted as of now.
McLeod and Foegle have development in to a nice 3rd line duo and, yes, they were great with Ryan in the playoffs (even if they couldn’t cash much).
I think Holloway will be a great 3LW on that line to add to the McLeod/Foegele duo.
Unless Brandon Sutter turns back the clock like 7 years, there is no 4C. Gagner is not a center any longer. Pederson is not an impact player (and he’s offensive minded). Lavoie is not a center.
Holloway IS an option for 4C but 8 minutes a night (w/o special teams isn’t enough).
I think Lavoie has to make the team and they bite the bullet and have Ryan play center until they can find someone during the season – like last season.
This is a little much OP.
When Sutter last played two seasons ago he was a 3C (more minutes/game 5v5 and overall than McLeod this past season).
Not saying he was a great (or even good) 3C, but he played the difficult minutes and those guys’ numbers tend to look like crap. A 4C role with the Oilers would be lower leverage than what he’s ever gotten before (lowest TOI/game of his career was 14:50 in 19-20).
I’m not saying he should make the team, but I don’t think he’s been nearly as bad in his more recent seasons as you’re making out, or that he’s that much of a long shot to actually make (and even help) the team.
Vancouver tried repeatedly to trade him…no takers.
Perhaps on a league minimum deal he could have some value.
Sure, because they’d signed him to a $4.375M deal with a 15 team NTC. He was no longer value for that, plus he could veto half the league.
The Canucks did re-sign him as a UFA for the 21-22 season at $1.125M (though he wasn’t able to play) They clearly still valued him above league minimum at that point.
Do you believe he has retained that value in the last 3 years?
Who knows, it’s possible.
You just said yourself he could have some value at league min, which is what we’re looking at.
Well no one wants to take a chance on a former Canuck after they have been poisoned by that dressing room. Most dysfunctional team in the league.
I haven’t looked at any numbers from his last few years in the league buy my mind recalls him as a player that couldn’t stay healthy and, when he was in the lineup, was not effective.
I could be misremembering but that is my current thoughts.
Reg season numbers only help then. We have seen repeatedly in the playoffs a different team than what they had been. Bounced twice by lesser teams, no dice against the Avs, pooched the Kniggets who they could have beat
There is a lot to this of course. Especially coaching. But as Connor is saying and has said, all that matters is winning. So we’ll see how they build towards winning when it counts, or not again
Parachuting players in only works when the team as a whole is already a well oiled machine. Like Barbashev to Knights. The Oilers have not gotten there yet, despite looking like it for shortish stretches. As playoff results show
KLowe reshaped the team at the deadline, only to peak one game too soon.
He added significant players in the top-6, top-4, and (most importantly) 1G.