This is the Oilers 2016 fall training camp roster. That was seven years ago and most of the names you see are long, long gone. The men retained include the obvious (Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins) and the obscure (Markus Niemelainen). How many will be here seven years from now?
Word yesterday an analytics hire is on the way. Here's a look at the real progress that has been made since Brad Holland was placed in pro scouting. The future? With a full analytics department? MUSIC!https://t.co/wRfaZQKPos
Stuart Skinner, 24. Skinner should be good to start through the end of the decade. It isn’t just the fact he posted a .914 save percentage in 50 games, it was the calm feet and confidence displayed. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Jack Campbell, 31. Fell year over year in save percentage (.914 to .888) but regression is likely (for Campbell and Skinner). Don’t be surprised if he spends part of the 2023-24 season as Edmonton’s starter. One good thing: His equipment shuffling should be solved by now. That was weird. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Calvin Pickard, 31. He was .912 and hung on to the AHL starting job but that may not be the case this season. Played well, did have some injury issues and he should be considered the most obvious candidate for NHL recall (if necessary). Chances of making the team: None unless there’s an injury.
Olivier Rodrigue, 23. He emerged as a legit NHL prospect last season, posting a .912 save percentage while carrying the mail for long periods. Some Oilers fans don’t believe in Stuart Skinner, so the idea another goalie is emerging so soon after is simply too much to contemplate. It may not happen, but it is happening. Chances of making the team: None.
Nathan Day (18) and Tyler Parks (31) are here to get work in when the schedule is busy busy. Day will head back to junior, Parks to AHL camp when it opens. Parks will spend the year in the ECHL unless there’s an injury in Bakersfield. Ryan Fanti’s injury is the big early news here.
LEFT DEFENSE
Darnell Nurse, 28. One of the vital cogs in Edmonton’s success, Nurse delivered 12-31-43 in 82 games and a 56 percent goal share at even strength. Played 23:29 minutes a night, big minutes against elites. He is mobile, rugged and plays a strong two-way game. Addition of Ekholm helps in a big way. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Mattias Ekholm, 33. Hip-flexor issue to start camp not considered serious. His performance with the Oilers was (I think) the most impressive since Pronger in 2005-06. He made playing defense in an Oilers jersey look easy and fun, and he was a breath of fresh air. Every stat they track was power and glory. Amazing trade. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Brett Kulak, 29. He scored 3-17-20 in 82 games overall and owned a 52 percent goal share at five-on-five. He was effective as a third-pairing mentor and his speed is a big feature of his game. Many observers want the team to trade Kulak to make room for additions elsewhere. I am not one of them. He’s an important player on this team. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Philip Broberg, 22. He is ready, his general manager has verbally cleared the track, and all that is left involves deployment by Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. His numbers with fellow lefties are good, his five-on-five possession metrics (53 percent goal share) are rock solid. The only downbeat is time (miniscule) versus elites, and he gets caved there. Small sample, but third pairing RH side with Kulak looks like a no-brainer from here. Chances of making the team: 95 percent.
Markus Niemelainen, 25. Big defenseman is a spectacular open-ice hitter but has some coverage gaps. Size and mobility keep him in the NHL conversation, but he got passed by Vincent Desharnais a year ago and may never catch up. His possession totals in the NHL last year (48 percent expected goals five-on-five) trailed actual results (56 percent goal share in the metric), so he was running some luck in 2022-23. There’s a tendency (for all of us) to view the last depth chart as the only one going forward, but a scenario where Niemelainen beats out Desharnais or Broberg this fall does exist. It just isn’t likely. Chances of making the team: 10 percent.
Ben Gleason, 25. He’s a strong passer and skater, he’ll be quality with the Condors and a recall isn’t out of the question. Listed ahead of Hoefenmayer because his contract ($775,000) makes him an easy recall and that may be the difference when needs arise, and his AHL salary ($425,000) towers over Hoefenmayer’s pay in Bakersfield. I think it’s a coin flip between the two, frankly. Chances of making the team: None.
Noel Hoefenmayer, 24. Hoefenmayer’s resume suggests he is more a two-way type than Gleason, but we’ll know more in the days to come and they basically start training camp even. I bet the Oilers were impressed that he wanted to come to the summer camp to get familiar with surroundings. Peter Harling of Dobber Hockey compared his carrer progression to Darren Raddysh here. Chances of making the team: None.
Cam Dineen, 25. Posted a 52 percent goal share at even strength, I liked his game with the puck on his stick. One thing that should be mentioned about this depth chart at LD: It’s far more experienced and proven than one year ago. Last year it was six deep, going Nurse-Kulak-Broberg-Samoukov-Koekkoek-Niemelainen. This year’s depth chart is much stronger, and deeper. Chances of making the team: None.
Xavier Bernard, 23. He was acquired for winger Graham McPhee last season. Red Line Report had him No. 37 overall in 2018, saying “big, strong, smart and reliable” and all of those things will be in fashion this fall for the organization. He was 1-0-1 in 12 games with the Condors last season, his even-strength goal differential (4-5) didn’t hurt or help the team. He didn’t play much (about 10 minutes a night according to Eric Rodgers’ estimates) and will probably spend most of the season in Fort Wayne (420,000 people in the Metro area). Chances of making team: None.
LD Jake Johnson, 24. He played for the national championship Quinnipiac side a year ago, his outscoring numbers shine like a diamond. Looked good in 10 games with the Fort Wayne Komets at the end of the year, that probably got him this contract. He is average in size. Chances of making team: None.
LD Alex Peters, 26. To my eye, he was the best of the AHL contracts a season ago. Through the end of February, his on-ice goal share at even strength was 38-23 (62 percent) but he struggled a little (11-15) through the end of the regular season. He’s a lefty, so there’s no room at the inn for NHL contracts, but he’s probably the best actual player among the AHL deals. Chances of making team: None.
RIGHT DEFENSE
Cody Ceci, 29. His offense fell (1-14-15) basically in half year over year, and his goal share at five-on-five (49 percent) was the only one below 50 among the regulars. His expected goal share (51 percent) was more encouraging. Played 16:28 a game at five-on-five in 2022-23, a full minute less than the previous season. That toal could continue to fall if he struggles again. Oilers are hoping his “core” injury, a phrase used to the point of farce with this player (just tell us the issue, please) has healed and he can return to previous levels. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Evan Bouchard, 23. Went 8-32-40 in 82 games, his second 40-point campaign in a row. Expect 50+ next season. Absolute home run season on the way, all of his arrows are headed in a good direction. The contract will be done, it’s a bridge over troubled waters. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Vincent Desharnais, 27. A giant defenseman (6.07, 229) who plays with an edge and has the wingspan of an actual Condor. His PK work in the minors was impressive and then he brought it fully formed to his debut NHL season. Last year I wrote “he’s a long shot but not a distant bell” and it happened just that way. His five-on-five goal share, 63 percent, doesn’t match his expected goal share (54 percnt) so regression should be expected. That regression, combined with speed issues, make him more vulnerable than it may appear at this time. Chances of making the team: 95 percent.
Phil Kemp, 24. Classic shutdown defenseman doesn’t get noticed when he’s on, but he continues to make yearly progress. His boxcars (6-15-21 in 71 games) spiked, and he owned the best even-strength goal differential (51-41, 55 percent) among regular Condors blue in 2022-23. I think he could play NHL games this season. Chances of making the team: None.
Max Wanner, 20. Drafted in the hazy days of the pandemic, it’s been clear since his draft +1 the Oilers grabbed a significant player in Wanner. His offensive output (30 points in 44 games) is often mentioned, but the key to this player is his defense and his edge. He’ll be one of the key players to track in Bakersfield this season. Chances of making the team: None.
Connor Corcoran, 22. He was drafted by Vegas in 2018’s fifth round, and is a defense-first blue. However, he has seven goals over 25 games in three cups of coffee with Henderson Silver Knights (AHL) so there appears to be some range here. I think this was a solid signing. We’ll see. Chances of making the team: None.
Noah Ganske, 24. He’s 6.07 and plays a rugged style. You can see why the Oilers like him, even though he owns only a minor league contract. I think he’s going to be worth watching this season, ECHL or AHL. Chances of making the team: None.
Beau Akey, 18. A fantastic skater with great puck skills, his performance in Penticton on the weekend got the attention of all observers. I think he’ll spend two seasons in junior and another in the AHL, but Akey has the look of a player who will have some impact once he arrives in the NHL. Chances of making the team: None.
CENTER
Connor McDavid, 26. Transcendent talent, human cheat code, shock and awe over 200 feet of ice. It isn’t just that he’ll score 140+ points next season, it’s that he can be counted on to bring his enormous talent to the game every night. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Leon Draisaitl, 27. The big man delivered another impact season and should be good for 50+ goals again in 2023-24. The assignment this year is to drive possession and deliver more than 50 percent goal share no matter his linemates. Some of his numbers were hampered by injuries to linemates, notably Evander Kane, but the big man is so talented I believe he can power through and win the outscoring. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Ryan McLeod, 22. One of just a few early 20’s players who will get prominent minutes on this veteran roster, McLeod showed impressive ability in driving a line at five-on-five, and fans should expect to see him in the middle on the third line with Dylan Holloway and Warren Foegele on opening night. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Brandon Sutter, 34. The only time I’m convinced he makes the team is when Ken Holland is talking, but that’s the guy you want on your side. If he can keep up throughout camp and provide great PK work, then he’ll make the team. I think it’s the tallest order on the menu. Chances of making the team: 20 percent.
RC Lane Pederson, 26. Pederson’s 2022-23 season was revealing. It shows a young veteran who has found a way to hone his skills and be a utility forward who doesn’t cost his team. He has been pretty consistent as a possession forward in each NHL turn save the San Jose disaster. He’s an astute signing by Edmonton, in a world where every team was looking for a RH center. Chances of making the team: 15 percent.
James Hamblin, 24. A speed merchant with enough skill to score 21 AHL goals in 2021-22, he got to the NHL for 10 games in 2022-23. Hamblin’s minor league numbers in 2022-23 weren’t as strong, and if Noah Philp was still on the roster, I would give him little chance of playing in the NHL this coming season. As it is, Hamblin probably gets some games. Chances of making the team: None.
Greg McKegg, 31. Wildly disappointing start to his Bakersfield season, effectively dashing any hope of recall. He did recover later in the season, and I would suggest a recall is more likely now. Chances of making the team: None.
Brad Malone, 34. He’s a solid AHL center, so Bakersfield needs him. Woodcroft has a great deal of confidence in him, so we could see him in the NHL this year. Every year someone says he’s not good enough, but he seems to find a way. Played 10 games, zero points last season. He may not get another call. Chances of making the team: None.
RC Jayden Grubbe, 20. The Oilers made a solid trade to get this player. Based on the scouting reports, at the very least he’ll slide in to a two-way role in the AHL and thrive. Offense will either allow him an NHL career or keep him from one. For now, I’d say Chris VandeVelde with better boots is a good estimation based on math and scouting reports. That’s a good prospect. Chances of making the team: None.
LC Carl Berglund, 23. He’s a two-way center with a resume that suggests the coaching staff will like his attention to detail. Foot speed is almost always the difference maker with players like Berglund. Even Anton Lander, who had more ability, lost his NHL career because of his boots. We’ll know about Berglund soon. Chances of making the team: None.
Ture Linden, 26. I don’t know much beyond he is a RHC and had strong seasons for RPI before heading to Penn State where he also played well. He was okay at the Young Stars but okay at 26 makes him a curious addition to the main roster.
LEFT WING
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, 30. He’s a terrific player, able to play in the middle or on the wing and provide quality play. He’s also a special teams maniac. His finest NHL season (82, 37-67-104) reads like peak Jean Ratelle, and I’m happy for his success. Always a favourite. He will regress and people will hammer him. He is not perfect, and cannot drive a line five-on-five, so LW on one of the top two lines is his wheelhouse. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Evander Kane, 32. Regression should work in a positive way for Evander Kane, as his season was derailed by injury. He scored at a 30-goal pace, but his goal share five-on-five (45 percent) and expected goal share (48 percent) are a concern. Good health should elevate those totals, and even with injury the big man scored 1.31 goals-60 at five-on-five. That’s a tremendous number. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Dylan Holloway, 21. Speedy winger with great passing, he was a disappointment as an NHL rookie. Holloway found his offense in a late-season trip to the minors and now it’s his time to shine. The Oilers wanted him to blossom last year, this season they need him to do it. Chances of making the team: 90 percent.
Mattias Janmark, 30. He is a savvy veteran as they used to say. Helps do the chores, is smart as can be, and took a pretty bitter pill (demoted to the minors for cap reasons) like a man. I’ve got all day for this player, pleased to see he’s back for another year. Chances of making the team: 90 percent.
Adam Erne, 28. He brings bite to the forward group and the Oilers may be looking for it on the opening night roster. He is not the offensive contributor Klim Kostin was a year ago, and I see Erne as his possible replacement. Chances of making the team: 5 percent.
Drake Caggiula, 29. He has great utility and will get a look in camp, but injuries have robbed him of the things that made him special coming out of college. He shouldn’t be completely discounted as an NHL option. Chances of making the team: 5 percent.
Carter Savoie, 20. A dominant college season (23-22-45 in 39 games, plus a national championship) got him to his first training camp with a great deal of (earned) buzz. An early camp injury sent him in a different direction, but the goal-scoring talent remains. A big season in Bakersfield would make everything right. Chances of making the team: None.
Matvey Petrov, 20. He is the biggest name graduating to pro hockey this fall. Usually it’s the first-round pick from previous seasons, but Reid Schaefer is long gone. Petrov doesn’t fade under the lights, though, his resume is strong and his showing last week at rookie camp matched the math. He’s going to tell a story. Chances of making the team: None
RIGHT WING
Zach Hyman, 31. Followed career best totals (27-27-54 in 76 games) with another career best (36-47-83 in 79 games) and is now clearly established as the best major free-agent signing in team history. He owned a 2.37 pts-60 at five-on-five and a 55 percent goal share. I don’t know how they’re going to move him off the McDavid line, don’t believe they will. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Connor Brown, 29. In the last three seasons, he has averaged 64 games, 16-24-40 with various teams. If he plays with McDavid and stays healthy, Brown could make those numbers look silly. He’s good. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Warren Foegele, 27. The youngest of the established wingers by some margin, the threat of a deal as the trade deadline neared lit a fire under Foegele and he turned it on. He finished with 2.09 pts-60 and a 55 percent goal share five-on-five. Music! Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Derek Ryan, 36. He has 23 goals from the depth of the roster over the last two seasons, and a five-on-five goal share of 51 percent in those two years. Those numbers were delivered skating through what used to be Death Valley for this organization. Chances of making the team: 90 percent.
Raphael Lavoie, 22. Lavoie is listed at right-wing because I think that’s where the action is this fall, but he is best suited to playing his off wing. He had a strong year in the AHL and is looking at fresh blacktop and a real opportunity on the highway ahead. Godspeed young man. Chances of making the team: 85 percent.
Xavier Bourgault, 20. He is a completely different player than the scouting reports. If he can add some offense to his resume, Bourgault is going to play a long time. I’d keep him in Bakersfield until he dominates for two months, and that may not happen this year. Chances of making the team: None.
Seth Griffith, 30. Followed up a brilliant 2021-22 season in Bakersfield with one of struggle. He is reaching the age where good players, and he is one, begin to fade. I don’t see him posting 80 points in the AHL again, and he might not hit 60 this season. Helluva player for a full decade. Chances of making the team: None.
Sam Gagner, 34. Per 82 games in his long NHL career, Sam Gagner averages 16-26-42. He scored eight goals in 48 games a year ago. His five-on-five goals-60 (.73) was a strong number and his expected goals in the discipline (52 percent) represents success. His injury means no chance to make the team, but Bakersfield is an option.
Tyler Tullio, 21. He showed great range as an AHL rookie, and I do think his career trajectory lands him a checking job in the NHL. It’s probably two years away but you never know. Chances of making the team: None.
Jake Chiasson, 20. He arrives with a nice set of tools and a real opportunity, but like Grubbe, his offense will take him to his natural place. He needs to score more often, that’s the bottom line. Chances of making the team: None.
Ethan De Jong, 24. A two-way winger from North Vancouver, De Jong ended his college career in fine style with a national championship. He has a good shot and some offensive acumen, but I think the big selling point is his responsible play while in pursuit of the puck. His NHLE (22) is good and if he plays a 200-foot game Bakersfield’s coaching staff will play the hell out of him.
Dino Kambeitz, 23. I confess to liking this player way more than his talent merits. He plays a determined game, and simple. Kind of like Patrick Russell if you recall him. I don’t think Kambeitz ever plays in the NHL but I’d love to see it. He’s 6.02, 210 and has scored 9-12-21 per 82 AHL games so far in his career.
Cameron Wright, 24. He has size (6.01, 200) and coming off a 29-34-63 (in 64 games) ECHL season. I have no idea how he gets into AHL games, with the depth chart so crowded with RW prospects.
At noon, we hit the air with two hours of sports talk and fun on Sports 1440. Today’s guests include Bagged Milk from Oilers Nation, where we’ll talk analytics and Oilers TC. We’ll also chat with Patricia Traina from Giants Country and SI.com about the Thursday nighter. You can leave comments here, @Lowetide on twitter or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly. There’s an analytics hire on the way!! We’ll talk about the candidates on the air today.
It is pretty funny though hearing about how much trouble the Oilers will be in when they have to re-sign “aged out” McDavid and Draisaitl, while also hearing about how the Oilers competition, Kings, Colorado, etc. are brilliant for having their players like Kopitar signed until he’s 38, Drew Doughty until he’s 37, MacKinnon until he’s 35, Stone until he’s 34, Nichushkin until he’s 34… etc. Etc.
If Draisaitl and McDavid ink 8 year extensions they will be 38 when those contracts expire.
While not all players fall off a cliff in their 30s, most do and having nearly all your key players in that cohort is not a recipe for long term success.
This is especially true for a team that has one of the worst prospects pools in the league.
It’s difficult to take you seriously after you praised Pittsburgh for extending their old cohort, and for acquiring 33 year old Karlsson, but never once talked about their poor prospect pool (one which is ranked 29th compared to Edmonton (21st) according to the Athletic).
I’m also fairly certain the Oilers can improve their prospect pool between now and 12 years from now when McDavid is 38…..
Question for the well informed out there – in 2016 what the hell actually happened with Lucic? Why was he such an absolute fail?
I mean that lineup does have some shudder inducing elements but there are also some reasonable names in there. Obviously there are some MAJOR players then that remain now. I’m just wondering why did that team go so poorly? Was it the coaching, GM? I seem to recall some friction maybe with the younger and older groups??
Lucic went for the biggest contract in a city he decided soon after than he had no interest in playing in, because it was not a good fit for him and his family. He was not honest with himself about what was really important to him. The contract became a trap for both the Oilers and Lucic, and he could not psychologically overcome the dissatisfaction with his situation.
Thanks – I remember when he signed thinking he could bring some snarl and intimidation to creates space for McDavid and he could be the start of something big. But man did he suck. And to make it worse he came off as a whiner.
I remember his saying something along the lines of how hard it was to be a family guy where most of the team was young and going out and having fun and he had to go home and due family duties.
The missing context is that he called Futa almost immediately asking if it was possible to reverse the trade. I want to say three days, but it was no more than three weeks; can’t remember the exact timeline from the interview with Bob, that I quoted here when it happened.
He was a train wreck waiting to happen.
kinger_OIL
September 21, 2023 6:15 pm
— Talked to a few hockey guys about Babcocks stuff. Bottom line he is who he is. He probably didn’t think he was doing anything wrong but was an old school flex that doesn’t work
— Speaking of old school: delighted with this off season in terms of moving away from old school. Old school got us three consecutive firsts.
— Old school then got us McD after that set didn’t work.
— Old school got us managers and coaches who Essentially had no business being in the role they were gifted here and never hired at same level before or after or guys that just fell on their lap.
— Good riddance old school: Jackson and Parkatti may or may not end up being great at their job in terms of actual results.
— But they are both accomplished individuals who would have had to be convinced to join the team. They are here on merit and most organizations would have them gladly. Very few hires in Management over the last 15 years you could say the same.
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 4:16 pm
Matty: What do you want to see from Lavoie that maybe you haven’t seen in prior camps?
Woody:
In his time in the org, the first one was that pandemic camp, he was in Sweden so he didn’t even get to go to a pro camp here. Then last year here was hurt during training camp so, for me, I just want him to be himself, show why he’s geting the opportunity. You are right he had a very good 2nd half in the AHL, he shot the lights out. He was someone who could play either wing. He’s going to get a healthy look here. Its now incumbent upon him to show well every day and keep taking steps so that he forces his way in and that’s the challenge for him.
DNB follows up and asks about “privileged ice” and if he has to get some of that first and then show?
Woody: Its kind of the chicken and egg, isn’t it? The good part about privileged ice early in training camp is that your typically not dressing a full lineup so there are doors open. Those player on the bubble are going to get opportunities. I think for coaches, its one thing to give an opportunity but its another thing to evaluate it correctly and you are evaluating what different players bring to the table. So that’s what we are putting alot of focus on as a coaching staff.
The old Chicken and Egg analogy how come he doesn’t use this talk with Holloway . Say what you want about how Lavoie is nothing but a 2nd round pick and if he can’t beat out Sutter who needs to be just competent then it’s no loss. Unless there’s injuries this team is already predetermined. Lavoie is not making it through waivers without ever possibly playing a game in Edmonton.
jtblack
September 21, 2023 2:25 pm
I am impressed with the Oilers overall demeanor this year.
They are talking about winning the Stanley Cup. Not hiding from it or deflecting the question, they are addressing it head on.
Showing up early for Captain Skates. It’s great. They should have a better start and keep the mojo going all season.
Jeff Jackson hiring. Not sure if it was all McDavid related, but Jackson seems like a legit High Bar Pro. Very Impressed with his attitude so far.
Analytics Department (a real one). Yes, it should have been done 5 years but ce la vie. It’s here now and it is more important than ever for Teams to have ALL the data and know how to interpret it. I know some of you know Parkatti – and by all accounts he is brilliant. Great move Oilers!
We know it’s hard to win the Cup. But I feel the Oilers Management and Players are putting themselves in the best position to try this year. WE WAIT 🙂
Seconded. I really like that they hired local and a guy who likes hockey
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 1:51 pm
Per Tony B.
Good, hard skate to open Main Camp for the Oilers.
– Goes without saying — McDavid & Draisaitl looked exceptional
– Brown skating well alongside 97
– Broberg stood out; some solid subtle plays on both ends
– Holloway has an underrated shot
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 12:43 pm
Raphael Lavoie, 22. Lavoie is listed at right-wing because I think that’s where the action is this fall, but he is best suited to playing his off wing. He had a strong year in the AHL and is looking at fresh blacktop and a real opportunity on the highway ahead. Godspeed young man. Chances of making the team: 85 percent.
I think it SHOULD be 85% but I think the org is hoping another option presents itself for 12F – A “youtful Sutter” or Erne – I think they want guys that have NHL game experience to fill that slot.
I don’t agree with this position but I think its there.
Lavoie was skating with Erne and Malone today.
Sutter between Janmark and Holloway.
I hope Lavoie forces the org to have him on the opening night roster.
If you don’t recieve the opportunity there’s nothing Lavoie can do but wait to get picked up by Ottawa are the Habs on waivers. If Sutter doesn’t pan out could there be a deal for Evans at 50% retained. I’ve mentioned all of this weeks ago but dang it’s the most intriguing topic of this training camp. I’ll also predict that Campbell will be the 1A by Christmas break and at the very least have a better SV% than Skinner. Campbell as we remember had new equipment that glove with the hole in it which completely and rightfully so messed with his mind. Add in new City, system and D and shit happens. Campbell has the pedigree with the hunger, throw in Ekholm calming things down and I expect a Huge year from Mr.Campbell.
LOL – I brought up a potential Lavoie/Evans (retained) swap.
He will have the opportunity – he will be in exhibition games. Maybe he gets good linemates, maybe he doesn’t, but lots of players have started with tweener linemates and been able to separate.
You keep saying it’s on the player this is not always the case there’s 100’s of stories over the years of players being effed over by Coaches and Managements . Sheldon Souray comes to mind how about Marody never given a opportunity over shrubs like Hass Jurco Kahun Turris eg. Have you not been listening to the Mike Babcock stories about players getting tortured for no reason because he got his jollies toying with peoples livelihoods
If Raphael Lavoie can’t make the Oilers out of camp then he is a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, coming off a good, not great, AHL season (90th in league scoring), that has played zero NHL games and has once again been cut from his NHL team which had a clear open forward spot (and he lost to an AHL tweener or end of career vet).
I wouldn’t trade Lavoie for 50% Evans right now but, if he can’t make this team out of camp…..
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 12:39 pm
Drake Caggiula, 29. He has great utility and will get a look in camp, but injuries have robbed him of the things that made him special coming out of college. He shouldn’t be completely discounted as an NHL option. Chances of making the team: 5 percent.
I’m been saying all summer that I don’t think Caggiula is part of the group with Sutter, Lavoie and Pederson (and now Erne) that is in competition for the last forward spot. I have him with the likes of Malone and Hamblin – a tier (or two) down.
First day of camp and he’s in the second group with the AHL vets and young prospects without a shot.
Things could change, of course, but this is an AHL player that is likely 15-16F on the depth chart (not counting the “real prospects” like Bourgault and Tulio that could pass him.
jp
September 21, 2023 11:39 am
Love these Riesen to Believe pieces LT, thanks.
Victoria Oil
September 21, 2023 11:38 am
With Jeff Jackson’s latest move and considering what he has done already in less than two months, it makes me wonder what the heck Bob Nicholson was doing in his 9 years with the Oilers?
A lot of people don’t appreciate just how time consuming it can be to be on the schmoozing circuit with all the other important people who also have nothing much to do. 🥸
And too much old school success a long time ago, felt they knew ‘the way’ as the world left them behind. Some are just well past having any drive left like someone who is trying to establish something. The management needs to be as driven as its best players, seems it’s getting close
ekcomb 2.0
September 21, 2023 11:12 am
Some Reisen to Believe trivia. Name this NHL Hall of Famer who played his entire career with one team. At the time he was given every reason to believe his team had drafted him, but found out many years later that they had acquired him in a trade a week after his draft.
Dryden says Habs scouts casually told him 10 years after the draft not realizing he did not know.
After this came to light some Bruins fans believed the Bruins were forced to trade Dryden when he refused to report. Here’s a Bruins blog repeating that myth in 2000:
Correction: Here’s a Bruins blog repeating that myth in 2020.
jp
September 21, 2023 11:12 am
From Tony Brar:
Good, hard skate to open Main Camp for the Oilers.
– Goes without saying — McDavid & Draisaitl looked exceptional
– Brown skating well alongside 97
– Broberg stood out; some solid subtle plays on both ends
– Holloway has an underrated shot
McLeod not with group. Has similar minor issue like Ekholm and won’t skate for a bit.
———————-
Notice Bouchard with Nurse – let that roll for 82 plus 24.
Pederson the placeholder for McLeod but notice Holloway and Lavoie both at the bottom with the clear “need to take away a job from a vet up the lineup” – i.e. Ryan as 3RW on the first skate.
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 10:25 am
Philip Broberg, 22. He is ready, his general manager has verbally cleared the track, and all that is left involves deployment by Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson. His numbers with fellow lefties are good, his five-on-five possession metrics (53 percent goal share) are rock solid. The only downbeat is time (miniscule) versus elites, and he gets caved there. Small sample, but third pairing RH side with Kulak looks like a no-brainer from here. Chances of making the team: 95 percent.
He is ready. He was ready last year and proved he’s a legit every day 3LD for 6-8 weeks at the start of the year?
Can he handle top 4? I don’t know but I think he can if he’s with a partner like Ekholm. I would suggest that his numbers with lefties aren’t just good, they are good to great to stunning – they are positive with every partner over the course of two years and stunning with Ekholm – only 40 minutes but 2-0 goals and 80% across the board.
He’s going to play up in Ekholm’s spot at the beginning of camp, which isn’t ideal for me, as I want him playing with Ekholm, not Ceci or Bouch or Vinny.
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 10:21 am
Darnell Nurse, 28. One of the vital cogs in Edmonton’s success, Nurse delivered 12-31-43 in 82 games and a 56 percent goal share at even strength. Played 23:29 minutes a night, big minutes against elites. He is mobile, rugged and plays a strong two-way game. Addition of Ekholm helps in a big way. Chances of making the team: 100 percent.
Absolutely a vital cog – this due is a legit 1D in the NHL – are there 32 d-men better than him? I’d like to see a list.
Lets not forget that Nurse is a top 10-15 producer at 5 on 5 over the course of the last 3 years, plays some of the toughest minutes in the NHL, etc., etc.
Being apx $1MM overpaid vis-a-vis cap hit does not derogate from his importance and impact on the team which will continue to be high as Ekholm likely regresses (and maybe misses more time with injury) over the course of the next 3 years, as he ages).
Few dispute Nurse is a legit top pair D. If Ekholm stays healthy Nurse will be the 2nd best D for a while. Ekholm has a complete game
What is widely thought is Nurse is paid as elite, and few would say that he is one of the handful that are elite. As for his points, he plays such hard comp because he plays with the two best offensive players in the league. For me that he gets them at a decent level is as much sore point as a feather in his cap. Because of who he plays most of his minutes with
Same for his positive goal share. It’s good, but I would hope that he and the Duo were stronger there given the situation. Better goalering would of course help that, but for me the skaters play directly affects how the goalies play. How could it not, goalies are at their mercy
The Oiler’s having a 65% goal share (32 GF/GA) at 5 on 5 with Nurse on and Leon and Connor off (634 minutes) goes against the notion that he is just being propped up by them. The xGF % was 58% would suggest it wasn’t luck either.
Conversely with Nurse in with Connor and/or Leon, the team’s goal share was 41/50 or about 45% and was negative in all 3 combos. The expected goal shares with McDavid with or without Leon was about 55% but with just Leon, the duo had a 42 expected goal share.
it is a partial representation since other line mates, goalie and opposition are all factors. But when you add in this past season was the first where Nurse and McDavid have been under water when together, I would expect them to be solid again this year.
And based on TOI and deployment after the deadline, Woodcroft and Manson don’t appear to share your view that Ekholm is the better defender.
Thx for the data. This is the issue with just looking at numbers. What the coaches did didn’t have to do with who was playing better. They have serious biases and the playoff deployment is widely thought around here as having been wrong
I don’t have a problem with Nurse. He’s a reactive physical specimen type player which is fine. What I saw is that a healthy Ekholm is a much more rounded player. Far more vision. He had his playoff issues as well, but was carrying an inexperienced partner whose weakness is on the defensive positional side
My take on your numbers is that Nurse did well against weaker comp, as any first pair D should, no? All players make mistakes, still I have watched years of mistakes and consistent missed reads, chasing, from our #1 fella that seem like things that should have been ironed out at this point
So professional NHL coaches whose livelihood depends on them ultimately winning are full of irrational biases and you are the bastion of objectivity in assessing these players abilities. Coaches aren’t perfect, make some mistakes and aren’t above criticism when warranted but you seem to have an axe to grind when it comes to Woody.
Neither I nor the coaches just look at numbers, but I thought is was fair to point out that your argument on Nurse was based on obviously factually incorrect information. Like HH, when somebody points this out, you move the goalposts.
Why so mad? I don’t have a computer available so can’t list stats. I don’t move goal posts I have a different and consistent opinion
I was around from the start of stats and have seen this same attitude and anger and insults from those who think they can tell much from what we have available. So much of it was wrong and nobody ever said sorry 😞
My favs were face offs don’t matter and size doesn’t matter. Both from what the numbers said. Many harsh exchanges. Nobody who knows NHL hockey would ever have gotten that so wrong, as our team bulked up and looks for a faceoff guy ten years later
Gregor said he thinks Woody changed the N and D zone system. Why? Because he was wrong last year, coaches are fallible. Many people and stats guys have said the player deployment was poor in the playoffs, not just me. He played two guys who were too hurt to help in key positions and both got fed, and they lost again
So yes coaches have biases and some are very stubborn on them like Woody demonstrated. Only vets in key spots even if they can’t perform. Trying to play a more physical than normal style that does not suit most Oiler players ‘planting seeds and keep grinding away’ come to mind. The best adapt on the fly. Use best available options. I truly hope Woody takes a step, he’s a good and modern coach and I like him and Charlie
But like Jackson I want the best in everything because we got gifted an all time great again. Connor deserves it. We deserve it after what they put us through and because we are the customers. To waste any of it is a shame
My take on your numbers is that Nurse did well against weaker comp, as any first pair D should, no? All players make mistakes, still I have watched years of mistakes and consistent missed reads, chasing, from our #1 fella that seem like things that should have been ironed out at this point
Last season, Nurse was 56% goals against elites, 57% against mid and 45.5% against Grits:
Also I have long said the Oilers break stats because they make egregious errors at key moments. Drai said the same this fall. Ekholm said they need to be able to take sustained D zone pressure
Great reg season 2nd half numbers, and crapped the bed again in the playoffs. Two of the worlds best players and career years all around. There’s a lot that goes into why this happens. But my original point that Nurse is a good top pairing D, not elite but gets elite money seems fairly sound to me
Lots dispute Nurse as being a top pair d-man – maybe not necessarily in this community but all over Oilers’ social media.
I purport that he’s not just a 1st pairing d-man but a #1 d-man – I haven’t see a list of 32 d-men currently better than him, let alone 32LD currently better than him.
Over the course of the last three seasons (the most you can aggregate on NST), Nurse is 69-64 goals when on the ice without McDavid or Drai.
If we are going to use quality of linemate then lets not forget that Nurse plays some of the toughest comp minutes in the league and he’s done that without ever having another legit top pairing d-man as his partner: rookie Bear, Larsson’s post dad death season, Barrie, young Bouchard, etc.
I think many people conflate “#1 D” to mean someone who could be in the discussion as the NHL’s “#1 D”, of which there are probably 10 or so players, and not as you consistently point out, someone who would be in the top 32.
If we are going to use quality of linemate then lets not forget that Nurse plays some of the toughest comp minutes in the league
Puckiq tells us that over the past 3 years, not a single player in the league has played more minutes v Elites than Nurse. Nobody else is particularly close, either – he’s nearly 100 minutes ahead of the #2 player.
and, as per the rest of my quote, he has done so without ever having a partner that, at the time, as was a legit top pairing guy – he’s been carrying his partner for half a decade.
Darth Tu
September 21, 2023 10:09 am
I’m absolutely thrilled with the goalie situation. Skinner should at least provide a solid baseline this year, if not reach All Star levels again. Campbell is due for a spike, and even with tha this W-L ratio was good last year. Pickard, yup he’s first recall but don’t be so sure that Rodrigue can’t jump past him this season.
In fact, the one complaint I have today is you have Rodrigue with zero chance of making the team. I’d file him in the Pickard category of “none unless there’s an injury”.
Heck, I think this is my first time as an Oilers fan where I’m not overly worried about a goalie injury. Pickard/Rodrigue could hold the fort if both Skinner and Campbell went down.
Consider me the pessimist on this one. Love the enthusiasm but reasonable Skinner regression and how truly awful Campbell was last year (I saw him against Calgary and Winnipeg so maybe it’s my fault) puts this as the A1 issue for this team imo.
The only reason this team treaded water was because an unproven rookie stepped up and the high end guys outscored the mistakes. It was only down the stretch that the team showed a semblance of balance (Ekholm lets be honest).
Historically, giving players more than they can be expected to handle doesn’t work out. Granted, no certainty in goaler year to year and I’d love for Stu to seize the day again but if we have to nitpick, that’s a real fear.
Stu was weak against Vegas, would suggest it’s not unreasonable to say the unexpected heavy workload during the year for him and some of the Ferrari’s contributed heavily to the Vegas flop. Same happened with Oettinger. Both goalies have to be firing in today’s NHL.
Just out of curiosity are you more concerned about Skinner or Campbell or is it just in general given that last season turned out rather upside down from general expectations?
Both, but certainly leaning to Campbell because of how reliant we are on him to figure it out. Praying on a 31 year old to 180 in order to insulate even small regression from Skinner decides this teams fate.
Skinner surprised but he faded by the end. Imo Vegas figured him out a bit too. Which is fine, rookie season, 50 plus games. Great up arrow is not the same feeling the Rangers or Lightning have. Would love for him to go .920 for a decade but being pessimist because he’s not a lock and if he falters even a little it likely means running 97 and 29 chasing games during the regular season and then it’s Groundhog Day.
Weirdly enough Pickard is the only one I feel most secure in the slotting of. I think he can help in a pinch and will be stable if Rodrigues doesn’t continue his upward trajectory.
I guess its “expecting a 180 from a 31 year old” vis-a-vis last year. He had a bad season but, at the same time, that season was the clear outlier in, well, his entire NHL career and, no, I don’t think that his age is even an iota of a factor and don’t think his play was related to age regression nor that that is coming. I’ve seem many many goalies play well in to their mid-30s (and even later) and some play their best hockey in their 30s.
I found it a bit odd that the Condors ran Pickard so back when he came back from injury as Rodrigue had performed so well in his absence and their numbers were very comparable.
I would hope that is a 50/50 split in the AHL this season but, if the team needs a call-up at goalie, I’m sure they go with the vet with NHL experience unless Rodrigue is really seperating.
OriginalPouzar
September 21, 2023 10:08 am
I have been thinking that Kylington back could me a massive add for the flames. I hope the dude is Ok – per Pat Strindberg:
#Flames have announced that Oliver Kylington won’t take part as training camp opens.
“Following yesterday’s medical and fitness testing, it was determined that Oliver is unable to participate. As this is a private personal matter, no further information will be provided.”
When he was on last week (I think) he told the story about his battle with alcohol and drug addiction and recent trip to recovery. He was very open about what had happened and it was some powerful stuff. Worth a listen, I think it’s around the 9:30AM mark.
Yes I will thanks. Loved hearing he’s stories from back home about how loose certain things were. When your playing in a mens pro league at 16 your a special talent but like he mentioned you either F-I or F-O
I’ve been messaging privately with Ladi a bit over the last few months given we suffer from the same disease (and went to the same treatment center – although I was kicked out that center in 2012 and got healthy at 2nd place – thank god).
Ladi is a beaut!
SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAin'tSo!
September 21, 2023 9:51 am
Crispness in the air this morning where I’m at.
Almost time for hockey.
This season will see two neat things.
1) McDavid will become the 3rd fastest player to reach 1,000 career points.
2) Leon Draisaitl will catch and pass Nathan MacKinnon in Career points.
Last year at this time, when someone suggested McDavid would get 150 points (which is what he needs to get to 1000), I cited that being an unreasonable target and 135 or so was likely an out of this world ceiling.
Well, here we are, where 150 points to reach 1000 is probably even money if he stays healthy.
Michael Parkatti has been named the #Oilers Senior Director, Data & Analytics! 📊
Working closely with the hockey operations department, Parkatti will lead the creation & operation of a new analytics department, providing insight-driven recommendations for the team.
==
I am absolutely gobsmacked. What a GREAT hire. I am loving the Oilers leaping with both feet into the future. Personally, I think Holland was an astute move at the time, and now I can also see bright days after he has finished his career as GM with a clear and strong path forward in the management ranks. I would love to see them use the analytics expertise on ALL hires, not just players? The right men steering the ship forward gets all the sailors pulling on the right ropes.
I am happy for you. You have been on this train since Jim Corsi had his name used and abused. Forget the beer and another beer – tonight probably deserves something a little stronger.
Knights and Kings, two of the top options to regress this season (Wild as well):
https://theathletic.com/4878933/2023/09/21/nhl-standings-teams-bruins-golden-knights/
I keep reading about aging curves and that is a factor listed – I wonder why this hasn’t been posted yet?
I know this one!
It doesn’t fit the narrative of a certain individual who lives to move the goalposts when he posts on this site.
It is pretty funny though hearing about how much trouble the Oilers will be in when they have to re-sign “aged out” McDavid and Draisaitl, while also hearing about how the Oilers competition, Kings, Colorado, etc. are brilliant for having their players like Kopitar signed until he’s 38, Drew Doughty until he’s 37, MacKinnon until he’s 35, Stone until he’s 34, Nichushkin until he’s 34… etc. Etc.
How old will these players be when their contracts expire?
Hyman 35
Nuge 36
Kane 34
Nurse 35
Campbell 34
Ekholm 35
If Draisaitl and McDavid ink 8 year extensions they will be 38 when those contracts expire.
While not all players fall off a cliff in their 30s, most do and having nearly all your key players in that cohort is not a recipe for long term success.
This is especially true for a team that has one of the worst prospects pools in the league.
As has been explained to you multiple times before both McDavid and Draisaitl would be 37 at the expiry of 8-year extensions.
It’s difficult to take you seriously after you praised Pittsburgh for extending their old cohort, and for acquiring 33 year old Karlsson, but never once talked about their poor prospect pool (one which is ranked 29th compared to Edmonton (21st) according to the Athletic).
I’m also fairly certain the Oilers can improve their prospect pool between now and 12 years from now when McDavid is 38…..
Maybe the Oilers can trade for some of the first the Canucks have been throwing away just trying to get to the playoffs over the last 5 years.
Thanks for pointing this out HH. You don’t usually post things showing the Oilers in a good light.
Firstly, those look like the perfect ages for contracts to end. Some will still be rolling and get extensions some may not.
Looking at the expiry dates your almost think it was planned:
Ryan(who you forgot) 2 years
Ekholm and Kane 3 years
Campbell 4 years
Hyman 5 years
Nuge 6 years
Nurse 7 years
How could you space then out better? Perfect timing for working on rookies.
Well so much so Dallas’s chances.
Too old. It was over before it begun
Question for the well informed out there – in 2016 what the hell actually happened with Lucic? Why was he such an absolute fail?
I mean that lineup does have some shudder inducing elements but there are also some reasonable names in there. Obviously there are some MAJOR players then that remain now. I’m just wondering why did that team go so poorly? Was it the coaching, GM? I seem to recall some friction maybe with the younger and older groups??
Lucic went for the biggest contract in a city he decided soon after than he had no interest in playing in, because it was not a good fit for him and his family. He was not honest with himself about what was really important to him. The contract became a trap for both the Oilers and Lucic, and he could not psychologically overcome the dissatisfaction with his situation.
Thanks – I remember when he signed thinking he could bring some snarl and intimidation to creates space for McDavid and he could be the start of something big. But man did he suck. And to make it worse he came off as a whiner.
I remember his saying something along the lines of how hard it was to be a family guy where most of the team was young and going out and having fun and he had to go home and due family duties.
This is true — the go-karting comment.
The missing context is that he called Futa almost immediately asking if it was possible to reverse the trade. I want to say three days, but it was no more than three weeks; can’t remember the exact timeline from the interview with Bob, that I quoted here when it happened.
He was a train wreck waiting to happen.
— Talked to a few hockey guys about Babcocks stuff. Bottom line he is who he is. He probably didn’t think he was doing anything wrong but was an old school flex that doesn’t work
— Speaking of old school: delighted with this off season in terms of moving away from old school. Old school got us three consecutive firsts.
— Old school then got us McD after that set didn’t work.
— Old school got us managers and coaches who Essentially had no business being in the role they were gifted here and never hired at same level before or after or guys that just fell on their lap.
— Good riddance old school: Jackson and Parkatti may or may not end up being great at their job in terms of actual results.
— But they are both accomplished individuals who would have had to be convinced to join the team. They are here on merit and most organizations would have them gladly. Very few hires in Management over the last 15 years you could say the same.
Matty: What do you want to see from Lavoie that maybe you haven’t seen in prior camps?
Woody:
In his time in the org, the first one was that pandemic camp, he was in Sweden so he didn’t even get to go to a pro camp here. Then last year here was hurt during training camp so, for me, I just want him to be himself, show why he’s geting the opportunity. You are right he had a very good 2nd half in the AHL, he shot the lights out. He was someone who could play either wing. He’s going to get a healthy look here. Its now incumbent upon him to show well every day and keep taking steps so that he forces his way in and that’s the challenge for him.
DNB follows up and asks about “privileged ice” and if he has to get some of that first and then show?
Woody: Its kind of the chicken and egg, isn’t it? The good part about privileged ice early in training camp is that your typically not dressing a full lineup so there are doors open. Those player on the bubble are going to get opportunities. I think for coaches, its one thing to give an opportunity but its another thing to evaluate it correctly and you are evaluating what different players bring to the table. So that’s what we are putting alot of focus on as a coaching staff.
The old Chicken and Egg analogy how come he doesn’t use this talk with Holloway . Say what you want about how Lavoie is nothing but a 2nd round pick and if he can’t beat out Sutter who needs to be just competent then it’s no loss. Unless there’s injuries this team is already predetermined. Lavoie is not making it through waivers without ever possibly playing a game in Edmonton.
I am impressed with the Oilers overall demeanor this year.
They are talking about winning the Stanley Cup. Not hiding from it or deflecting the question, they are addressing it head on.
Showing up early for Captain Skates. It’s great. They should have a better start and keep the mojo going all season.
Jeff Jackson hiring. Not sure if it was all McDavid related, but Jackson seems like a legit High Bar Pro. Very Impressed with his attitude so far.
Analytics Department (a real one). Yes, it should have been done 5 years but ce la vie. It’s here now and it is more important than ever for Teams to have ALL the data and know how to interpret it. I know some of you know Parkatti – and by all accounts he is brilliant. Great move Oilers!
We know it’s hard to win the Cup. But I feel the Oilers Management and Players are putting themselves in the best position to try this year. WE WAIT 🙂
Seconded. I really like that they hired local and a guy who likes hockey
Per Tony B.
Good, hard skate to open Main Camp for the Oilers.
– Goes without saying — McDavid & Draisaitl looked exceptional
– Brown skating well alongside 97
– Broberg stood out; some solid subtle plays on both ends
– Holloway has an underrated shot
I think it SHOULD be 85% but I think the org is hoping another option presents itself for 12F – A “youtful Sutter” or Erne – I think they want guys that have NHL game experience to fill that slot.
I don’t agree with this position but I think its there.
Lavoie was skating with Erne and Malone today.
Sutter between Janmark and Holloway.
I hope Lavoie forces the org to have him on the opening night roster.
If you don’t recieve the opportunity there’s nothing Lavoie can do but wait to get picked up by Ottawa are the Habs on waivers. If Sutter doesn’t pan out could there be a deal for Evans at 50% retained. I’ve mentioned all of this weeks ago but dang it’s the most intriguing topic of this training camp. I’ll also predict that Campbell will be the 1A by Christmas break and at the very least have a better SV% than Skinner. Campbell as we remember had new equipment that glove with the hole in it which completely and rightfully so messed with his mind. Add in new City, system and D and shit happens. Campbell has the pedigree with the hunger, throw in Ekholm calming things down and I expect a Huge year from Mr.Campbell.
LOL – I brought up a potential Lavoie/Evans (retained) swap.
He will have the opportunity – he will be in exhibition games. Maybe he gets good linemates, maybe he doesn’t, but lots of players have started with tweener linemates and been able to separate.
Its on the player, end stop.
You keep saying it’s on the player this is not always the case there’s 100’s of stories over the years of players being effed over by Coaches and Managements . Sheldon Souray comes to mind how about Marody never given a opportunity over shrubs like Hass Jurco Kahun Turris eg. Have you not been listening to the Mike Babcock stories about players getting tortured for no reason because he got his jollies toying with peoples livelihoods
That would be a horrible trade.
If Raphael Lavoie can’t make the Oilers out of camp then he is a 23 year old, former 2nd round pick, coming off a good, not great, AHL season (90th in league scoring), that has played zero NHL games and has once again been cut from his NHL team which had a clear open forward spot (and he lost to an AHL tweener or end of career vet).
I wouldn’t trade Lavoie for 50% Evans right now but, if he can’t make this team out of camp…..
I’m been saying all summer that I don’t think Caggiula is part of the group with Sutter, Lavoie and Pederson (and now Erne) that is in competition for the last forward spot. I have him with the likes of Malone and Hamblin – a tier (or two) down.
First day of camp and he’s in the second group with the AHL vets and young prospects without a shot.
Things could change, of course, but this is an AHL player that is likely 15-16F on the depth chart (not counting the “real prospects” like Bourgault and Tulio that could pass him.
Love these Riesen to Believe pieces LT, thanks.
With Jeff Jackson’s latest move and considering what he has done already in less than two months, it makes me wonder what the heck Bob Nicholson was doing in his 9 years with the Oilers?
Working on the burger menu….
it must have been in the water ….
A lot of people don’t appreciate just how time consuming it can be to be on the schmoozing circuit with all the other important people who also have nothing much to do. 🥸
But, Nicholson was striving to land the All Star Game AND the Draft in Edmonton…
The singular downside of drafting McDavid was that it guaranteed a certain level of both hockey and business success.
For the driven, this means a great place from which to go higher.
For others, it means a comfortable spot for laziness.
There were WAY too many comfortably lazy folks around this hockey team.
And too much old school success a long time ago, felt they knew ‘the way’ as the world left them behind. Some are just well past having any drive left like someone who is trying to establish something. The management needs to be as driven as its best players, seems it’s getting close
Some Reisen to Believe trivia. Name this NHL Hall of Famer who played his entire career with one team. At the time he was given every reason to believe his team had drafted him, but found out many years later that they had acquired him in a trade a week after his draft.
La Girafe!!!
Dryden says Habs scouts casually told him 10 years after the draft not realizing he did not know.
After this came to light some Bruins fans believed the Bruins were forced to trade Dryden when he refused to report. Here’s a Bruins blog repeating that myth in 2000:
Icehockeyfandom.com writes that Dryden, “refused to report to the Bruins in 1964” resulting in them trading him to Montreal.
https://chowderandchampions.com/2020/05/10/boston-bruins-ken-dryden-trade-worst-ever/
Chowderheads! How could he refuse to report to the Bruins when he did not know they drafted him?
Correction: Here’s a Bruins blog repeating that myth in 2020.
From Tony Brar:
Good, hard skate to open Main Camp for the Oilers.
– Goes without saying — McDavid & Draisaitl looked exceptional
– Brown skating well alongside 97
– Broberg stood out; some solid subtle plays on both ends
– Holloway has an underrated shot
Good to be back! #Oilers
Let the hype train begin!
I assumed McLeod was just taking his birthday off 😉 but according to Gregor:
“McLeod not with group. Has similar minor issue like Ekholm and won’t skate for a bit.”
https://x.com/jasongregor/status/1704889147364950444?s=46&t=yOjgX7Dc1NV_ZnMv2aFPKQ
Oilers suddenly with one of the larger analytics departments in the NHL 🤷
https://x.com/hayyyshayyy/status/1704884234911875081?s=46&t=yOjgX7Dc1NV_ZnMv2aFPKQ
Lines and pairings today from Stauffer:
Kane-McDavid-Brown
RNH-Draisaitl-Hyman
Foegele-Pederson-Ryan
Holloway-Sutter-Janmark
Erne-Malone-Lavoie
Nurse-Bouchard
Kulak-Ceci
Broberg-Desharnais
Niemelainen-Gleason
Skinner
Campbell
Gregor says:
McLeod not with group. Has similar minor issue like Ekholm and won’t skate for a bit.
———————-
Notice Bouchard with Nurse – let that roll for 82 plus 24.
Pederson the placeholder for McLeod but notice Holloway and Lavoie both at the bottom with the clear “need to take away a job from a vet up the lineup” – i.e. Ryan as 3RW on the first skate.
He is ready. He was ready last year and proved he’s a legit every day 3LD for 6-8 weeks at the start of the year?
Can he handle top 4? I don’t know but I think he can if he’s with a partner like Ekholm. I would suggest that his numbers with lefties aren’t just good, they are good to great to stunning – they are positive with every partner over the course of two years and stunning with Ekholm – only 40 minutes but 2-0 goals and 80% across the board.
He’s going to play up in Ekholm’s spot at the beginning of camp, which isn’t ideal for me, as I want him playing with Ekholm, not Ceci or Bouch or Vinny.
Absolutely a vital cog – this due is a legit 1D in the NHL – are there 32 d-men better than him? I’d like to see a list.
Lets not forget that Nurse is a top 10-15 producer at 5 on 5 over the course of the last 3 years, plays some of the toughest minutes in the NHL, etc., etc.
Being apx $1MM overpaid vis-a-vis cap hit does not derogate from his importance and impact on the team which will continue to be high as Ekholm likely regresses (and maybe misses more time with injury) over the course of the next 3 years, as he ages).
Nurse remains the 1D on this team, today.
Few dispute Nurse is a legit top pair D. If Ekholm stays healthy Nurse will be the 2nd best D for a while. Ekholm has a complete game
What is widely thought is Nurse is paid as elite, and few would say that he is one of the handful that are elite. As for his points, he plays such hard comp because he plays with the two best offensive players in the league. For me that he gets them at a decent level is as much sore point as a feather in his cap. Because of who he plays most of his minutes with
Same for his positive goal share. It’s good, but I would hope that he and the Duo were stronger there given the situation. Better goalering would of course help that, but for me the skaters play directly affects how the goalies play. How could it not, goalies are at their mercy
The Oiler’s having a 65% goal share (32 GF/GA) at 5 on 5 with Nurse on and Leon and Connor off (634 minutes) goes against the notion that he is just being propped up by them. The xGF % was 58% would suggest it wasn’t luck either.
Conversely with Nurse in with Connor and/or Leon, the team’s goal share was 41/50 or about 45% and was negative in all 3 combos. The expected goal shares with McDavid with or without Leon was about 55% but with just Leon, the duo had a 42 expected goal share.
it is a partial representation since other line mates, goalie and opposition are all factors. But when you add in this past season was the first where Nurse and McDavid have been under water when together, I would expect them to be solid again this year.
And based on TOI and deployment after the deadline, Woodcroft and Manson don’t appear to share your view that Ekholm is the better defender.
Thx for the data. This is the issue with just looking at numbers. What the coaches did didn’t have to do with who was playing better. They have serious biases and the playoff deployment is widely thought around here as having been wrong
I don’t have a problem with Nurse. He’s a reactive physical specimen type player which is fine. What I saw is that a healthy Ekholm is a much more rounded player. Far more vision. He had his playoff issues as well, but was carrying an inexperienced partner whose weakness is on the defensive positional side
My take on your numbers is that Nurse did well against weaker comp, as any first pair D should, no? All players make mistakes, still I have watched years of mistakes and consistent missed reads, chasing, from our #1 fella that seem like things that should have been ironed out at this point
So professional NHL coaches whose livelihood depends on them ultimately winning are full of irrational biases and you are the bastion of objectivity in assessing these players abilities. Coaches aren’t perfect, make some mistakes and aren’t above criticism when warranted but you seem to have an axe to grind when it comes to Woody.
Neither I nor the coaches just look at numbers, but I thought is was fair to point out that your argument on Nurse was based on obviously factually incorrect information. Like HH, when somebody points this out, you move the goalposts.
Why so mad? I don’t have a computer available so can’t list stats. I don’t move goal posts I have a different and consistent opinion
I was around from the start of stats and have seen this same attitude and anger and insults from those who think they can tell much from what we have available. So much of it was wrong and nobody ever said sorry 😞
My favs were face offs don’t matter and size doesn’t matter. Both from what the numbers said. Many harsh exchanges. Nobody who knows NHL hockey would ever have gotten that so wrong, as our team bulked up and looks for a faceoff guy ten years later
Gregor said he thinks Woody changed the N and D zone system. Why? Because he was wrong last year, coaches are fallible. Many people and stats guys have said the player deployment was poor in the playoffs, not just me. He played two guys who were too hurt to help in key positions and both got fed, and they lost again
So yes coaches have biases and some are very stubborn on them like Woody demonstrated. Only vets in key spots even if they can’t perform. Trying to play a more physical than normal style that does not suit most Oiler players ‘planting seeds and keep grinding away’ come to mind. The best adapt on the fly. Use best available options. I truly hope Woody takes a step, he’s a good and modern coach and I like him and Charlie
But like Jackson I want the best in everything because we got gifted an all time great again. Connor deserves it. We deserve it after what they put us through and because we are the customers. To waste any of it is a shame
My take on your numbers is that Nurse did well against weaker comp, as any first pair D should, no? All players make mistakes, still I have watched years of mistakes and consistent missed reads, chasing, from our #1 fella that seem like things that should have been ironed out at this point
Last season, Nurse was 56% goals against elites, 57% against mid and 45.5% against Grits:
http://puckiq.com/woodmoney?season=20222023&positions=d&team=edm&group_by=player_season_team
Also, in 322 minutes against elites WITHOUT McDavid, Nurse was 50% goal share (13-13).
http://puckiq.com/woodwowy?player=8477498&teammate=8478402
Also I have long said the Oilers break stats because they make egregious errors at key moments. Drai said the same this fall. Ekholm said they need to be able to take sustained D zone pressure
Great reg season 2nd half numbers, and crapped the bed again in the playoffs. Two of the worlds best players and career years all around. There’s a lot that goes into why this happens. But my original point that Nurse is a good top pairing D, not elite but gets elite money seems fairly sound to me
Lots dispute Nurse as being a top pair d-man – maybe not necessarily in this community but all over Oilers’ social media.
I purport that he’s not just a 1st pairing d-man but a #1 d-man – I haven’t see a list of 32 d-men currently better than him, let alone 32LD currently better than him.
Over the course of the last three seasons (the most you can aggregate on NST), Nurse is 69-64 goals when on the ice without McDavid or Drai.
If we are going to use quality of linemate then lets not forget that Nurse plays some of the toughest comp minutes in the league and he’s done that without ever having another legit top pairing d-man as his partner: rookie Bear, Larsson’s post dad death season, Barrie, young Bouchard, etc.
I think many people conflate “#1 D” to mean someone who could be in the discussion as the NHL’s “#1 D”, of which there are probably 10 or so players, and not as you consistently point out, someone who would be in the top 32.
The top 20.
https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-current-players-ranked-top-20-defensemen-345580664
The other 12 are debatable.
Yes he’s a good top pairing D as I said
Puckiq tells us that over the past 3 years, not a single player in the league has played more minutes v Elites than Nurse. Nobody else is particularly close, either – he’s nearly 100 minutes ahead of the #2 player.
and, as per the rest of my quote, he has done so without ever having a partner that, at the time, as was a legit top pairing guy – he’s been carrying his partner for half a decade.
I’m absolutely thrilled with the goalie situation. Skinner should at least provide a solid baseline this year, if not reach All Star levels again. Campbell is due for a spike, and even with tha this W-L ratio was good last year. Pickard, yup he’s first recall but don’t be so sure that Rodrigue can’t jump past him this season.
In fact, the one complaint I have today is you have Rodrigue with zero chance of making the team. I’d file him in the Pickard category of “none unless there’s an injury”.
Heck, I think this is my first time as an Oilers fan where I’m not overly worried about a goalie injury. Pickard/Rodrigue could hold the fort if both Skinner and Campbell went down.
Let’s GO(alie)!
Consider me the pessimist on this one. Love the enthusiasm but reasonable Skinner regression and how truly awful Campbell was last year (I saw him against Calgary and Winnipeg so maybe it’s my fault) puts this as the A1 issue for this team imo.
The only reason this team treaded water was because an unproven rookie stepped up and the high end guys outscored the mistakes. It was only down the stretch that the team showed a semblance of balance (Ekholm lets be honest).
Historically, giving players more than they can be expected to handle doesn’t work out. Granted, no certainty in goaler year to year and I’d love for Stu to seize the day again but if we have to nitpick, that’s a real fear.
Stu was weak against Vegas, would suggest it’s not unreasonable to say the unexpected heavy workload during the year for him and some of the Ferrari’s contributed heavily to the Vegas flop. Same happened with Oettinger. Both goalies have to be firing in today’s NHL.
Just out of curiosity are you more concerned about Skinner or Campbell or is it just in general given that last season turned out rather upside down from general expectations?
Both, but certainly leaning to Campbell because of how reliant we are on him to figure it out. Praying on a 31 year old to 180 in order to insulate even small regression from Skinner decides this teams fate.
Skinner surprised but he faded by the end. Imo Vegas figured him out a bit too. Which is fine, rookie season, 50 plus games. Great up arrow is not the same feeling the Rangers or Lightning have. Would love for him to go .920 for a decade but being pessimist because he’s not a lock and if he falters even a little it likely means running 97 and 29 chasing games during the regular season and then it’s Groundhog Day.
Weirdly enough Pickard is the only one I feel most secure in the slotting of. I think he can help in a pinch and will be stable if Rodrigues doesn’t continue his upward trajectory.
Thanks for the answer. I am strangely calm about the goaltending going into this season. I guess we will have our answer soon enough.
I guess its “expecting a 180 from a 31 year old” vis-a-vis last year. He had a bad season but, at the same time, that season was the clear outlier in, well, his entire NHL career and, no, I don’t think that his age is even an iota of a factor and don’t think his play was related to age regression nor that that is coming. I’ve seem many many goalies play well in to their mid-30s (and even later) and some play their best hockey in their 30s.
I found it a bit odd that the Condors ran Pickard so back when he came back from injury as Rodrigue had performed so well in his absence and their numbers were very comparable.
I would hope that is a 50/50 split in the AHL this season but, if the team needs a call-up at goalie, I’m sure they go with the vet with NHL experience unless Rodrigue is really seperating.
I have been thinking that Kylington back could me a massive add for the flames. I hope the dude is Ok – per Pat Strindberg:
#Flames have announced that Oliver Kylington won’t take part as training camp opens.
“Following yesterday’s medical and fitness testing, it was determined that Oliver is unable to participate. As this is a private personal matter, no further information will be provided.”
This is odd, I thought I heard/read a few months ago that Kylington was looking forward to playing this season?
I know I read that somewhere as well. Feel bad for the man if this is a setback but no pity for the team.
Ladislav Smid is a real character he’s hilarious. I’m so glad Sports radio is back in the City Of Champions.
When he was on last week (I think) he told the story about his battle with alcohol and drug addiction and recent trip to recovery. He was very open about what had happened and it was some powerful stuff. Worth a listen, I think it’s around the 9:30AM mark.
Yes I will thanks. Loved hearing he’s stories from back home about how loose certain things were. When your playing in a mens pro league at 16 your a special talent but like he mentioned you either F-I or F-O
I’ve been messaging privately with Ladi a bit over the last few months given we suffer from the same disease (and went to the same treatment center – although I was kicked out that center in 2012 and got healthy at 2nd place – thank god).
Ladi is a beaut!
Crispness in the air this morning where I’m at.
Almost time for hockey.
This season will see two neat things.
1) McDavid will become the 3rd fastest player to reach 1,000 career points.
2) Leon Draisaitl will catch and pass Nathan MacKinnon in Career points.
This is going to be so much fun.
Last year at this time, when someone suggested McDavid would get 150 points (which is what he needs to get to 1000), I cited that being an unreasonable target and 135 or so was likely an out of this world ceiling.
Well, here we are, where 150 points to reach 1000 is probably even money if he stays healthy.
Via Edmonton Oilers:
Michael Parkatti has been named the #Oilers Senior Director, Data & Analytics! 📊
Working closely with the hockey operations department, Parkatti will lead the creation & operation of a new analytics department, providing insight-driven recommendations for the team.
==
Music!! Oh my GOD I’m so happy.
Great move!!
Wish they did it years ago, but today is the first day of the rest of your life.
Agreed. Great news.
I am absolutely gobsmacked. What a GREAT hire. I am loving the Oilers leaping with both feet into the future. Personally, I think Holland was an astute move at the time, and now I can also see bright days after he has finished his career as GM with a clear and strong path forward in the management ranks. I would love to see them use the analytics expertise on ALL hires, not just players? The right men steering the ship forward gets all the sailors pulling on the right ropes.
I am happy for you. You have been on this train since Jim Corsi had his name used and abused. Forget the beer and another beer – tonight probably deserves something a little stronger.
Great!
I recognize the name but I don’t know his history. Can anyone provide has background?
thx
I have Riesen to Believe we all shall be received in Graceland.
Graceland, aka the parade down Jasper Avenue, that I last experienced when I was a child just 8 years old, the traveling companion of my father.
That’s some eloquent prose, sir, using the Simon lyrics beautifully. Well done!