Time flies when you’re having fun. The cuts yesterday (there were three) leave the Oilers with 28 names for 21 spots. I think we have the issue surrounded, but trades and waiver wins/losses hang heavy in the air. It’s one of the truly wonderful times of the year.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New DNB: Five intriguing Edmonton Oilers developments from the preseason
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have a blockbuster trade in their future?
- DNB: Oilers release Brandon Sutter from tryout offer
- Lowetide: Oilers reaching critical pressure point with prospect Raphael Lavoie
- DNB: A third Edmonton Oilers tenure, no matter the odds, is Sam Gagner’s goal
- Lowetide: Should the Edmonton Oilers alter how Connor McDavid is deployed?
- DNB: Oilers, Flames unveil Heritage Classic jerseys: How do we rate them?
- DNB: Vincent Desharnais Q&A
- Lowetide: Can the Oilers find a useful player on the waiver wire?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ top recall options for 2023-24
- DNB: 6 observations from the first two days
- Lowetide: Can the Edmonton Oilers ice a balanced roster in 2023-24?
- DNB: Inside the Edmonton Oilers hiring Michael Parkatti to run an analytics department
- Lowetide: Were the Edmonton Oilers’ summer moves supported by analytics?
- DNB: 10 pressing Edmonton Oilers questions entering training camp
- Lowetide: The Oilers’ best prospect is Xavier Bourgault. Will he play in the NHL this year?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers prospects preseason stock watch
- Lowetide: Why Oilers’ Ryan Nugent-Hopkins remains key to Stanley Cup pursuit
- Lowetide: 5 Oilers assets that could get moved early or late in 2023-24
- Lowetide: What to expect from Oilers rookies, led by Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers 2023-24 complete reasonable expectations
- Lowetide: What should Oilers fans expect from new scouting director Richard Pracey?
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
CERTAIN OILERS
This list may have some tweaks opening night due to injury. Mattias Ekholm, Ryan McLeod and Brett Kulak are having some issues. Coach Jay Woodcroft is saying ‘everything is fine, the indifel injuries are leaving the city’ but I’m not sure about it. We’ll see. A window of opportunity may be opening, and the Oilers still have 10 defensemen remaining in camp.
UNCERTAIN OILERS
I think Raphael Lavoie makes the team or is dealt. The goal he scored against Thatcher Demko will have been seen multiple times by many people in the hockey industry. He can do the hardest thing (score goals) from a nice big area of the ice due to his shot and release. If he scores 10 goals this season, it might be 20 next year. Sam Pollock would keep him on the roster and build value during the regular season. At the deadline, the decision on Lavoie’s future could be made. That’s the play here. Markus Niemelainen is also banged up as per Daniel Nugent-Bowman’s reporting.
DISTANT BELLS
The two men still here from the distant bells are defensemen who have shown well in camp. It bodes well for both, and for me Ben Gleason is a player other teams might look at on the waiver wire. I don’t think the Oilers can do much about it, honestly.
THE KIDS
Edmonton’s prospects performed well this camp. That’s a credit to the scouts and AHL coaching staff, but also Keith Gretzky and Bob Green plus the pro and amateur scouting side. James Hamblin delivered a strong camp, Gleason and Lane Pederson were targeted as priority additions early in free agency despite being less than famous. Credit where due. Brad Holland is doing good work.
At noon, Sports 1440. It’s a big day of sports talk with Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey at the Edmonton Journal. We’ll also have a Jays guest and discuss whatever you bring us here, @Lowetide on twitter or text us 1.833.401.1440 directly.
New for The Athletic: With Oilers rookies in short supply, expect more from sophomores
https://theathletic.com/4924142/2023/10/04/edmonton-oilers-rookies-holloway-broberg-skinner/
If only Ken Holland wasn’t such a dinosaur 😉 from Dom and Co’s season preview:
“More important though is the number to the far right: 15 percent. That’s Edmonton’s chances of winning it all, the highest of any team by a considerable margin; five percentage points. The Oilers are not just a contender, they’re the Stanley Cup favorite, period.”
It’s the hardest Championship to win in any sport. Hopefully our top 6 hold up injury wise and we hit the Playoffs fresh. I do worry a bit as Brown, Kane and RNH are over 30 and no longer spring chickens. I do have a good feeling about Holloway Foegele (contract year) and Lavoie.
Fun game from the Oilers last night. Was like watching a bored cat play with a dead mouse. But an NHL roster beats an AHL roster every time.
oh wait.
Errrr… are you forgetting what happened in Calgary last Friday?
I’m not, I was there (20th anniversary trip with the wife) and it was glorious (in preseason terms anyway).
Broberg played really, really well. great arrows.
and how many games has Holloway been in? Great wheels, still doesn’t look tired
Kemp played well, he was really trying to get some offense going. He moved up many times but puck never came his way.
So, Connor Brown is good. If that was a preview of the season, I think Con-Con are gonna score a lot. Hopefully reduces the urge to pair McDavid & Drai, and spread out the scoring threats across multiple lines.
Fingers crossed McLeod is is back in top shape… I recall OP posted he was seen on ice, skating. We need that 3rd line to be strong and deadly. Ekholm missing is a concern also, really hope those “bumps & bruises” aren’t something that delays his return much longer.
GO OILERS!!!
I think the biggest benefit of Brown is that he is going to increase the +/- of whoever he is paired with.
Brown has never met a Canoe he couldn’t paddle.
they say don’t read too much into the preseason …… that’s true ….
BUT
After the DoD; it’s nice to see a Dominant squad toying in the preseason. I think they could beat Calgary’s NHL lineup by the same score … This team is a Ferrari and the engine is only in 2nd gear 🙂
Lavoie in the slot from Holloway! Garbage time against a B-squad Calgary, but still…
LAVOIE!!!
Against an NHL goaltender…
Being at the tail end of the pre-season I expected a stronger Flames line up.
We don’t get to break Jacob Markström til the regular season! ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Calgary only has one more game as well, it was strange they iced a b-squad. Kinda smells of overthinking or indecisiveness a little. I expect there will be cuts tomorrow in both cities.
I’ve been impressed by Lavoie this game. He hasn’t really done exceptional things, but he’s played the kind of game I want out of my 4th line: puck control, pace, and opportunistic strikes. While I get the sense that Holloway is trending towards minutes further up the lineup, a 4th line of those two and Janmark is one I’d like to see during the year!
On another note, that 4-on-4 segment with McDavid, Drai, Nurse, and Bouchard was absolutely beautiful to watch!
Just had a real good shift in the O zone.
Yup, B+ game, his conditioning is a bit weak but that will come with maturity and professionalism.
Speaking of sloppy, McDavid picks Oesterle’s pocket, across to Brown and it’s 5-2
Shame for Osterle as he’s having a good game
Place holder with a nice shot to take the lead!
Then he set up Holloway for a breakaway right after.
Lane Pederson, ladies and gentlemen.
super sloppy last 10 minutes of that period. It was like they forgot how to pass.
Skinner beaten on shot from Flames D. Not a great goal.
Just at the game here and noticed Draisaitl is not wearing the ‘A’ on his Jersey? What’s with that?
Home/away rotation.
Just caught a chiefly considerable quantity of Connor to Connor chemistry.
New mask for Stu!
For those who aren’t subscribed to Oilers Plus, you can try it for free for 1 month using the code in this link. Just make sure after you subscribe that you change the setting for auto-renew.
I didn’t see this until now, so like a dummy I paid for a 1-month subscription.
https://www.nhl.com/oilers/news/preview-oilers-vs-flames-10-03-23
Free stream on Flames website.
Because Oilers fans are thirsting to hear more in-depth coverage of Klepka and DiSimone and are really interested in what Blake Coleman had for breakfast.
Really great suggestion, thanks!
So signed up for Oilers + but picture is jerky from frame to frame and behind the play. Anyone else having problems?
I’m on Oilers+ and its fine for me.
OK thanks. I rebooted lap top and seems to be fine now.
Wow disappointing baseball by the Jays. Their performance with RISP brutal as it has been all season. Pitching was outstanding but hitting was not….
On the plus side, at least they didn’t piss away a lead this postseason…
The Boo-Jays are gone faster than a fart in the wind.
So Jays using analytics that likely sees them lose the series 2-0. Why take Berrios out????
And they’re inconsistent in their application of analytics. They use the numbers to justify yanking Berrios who’s actually pitching well. The day before they ignore all the data indicating the Twins had owned Gausman cos they just had to start their “saw him good” Ace!
Blue Jays in trouble.
Schneider is so aggravating. Over manages his pitchers and under manages his hitters & base runners.
The issues with RISP continue.
problems are shapiro and atkins too
Analytics are table stakes now. The problem with the Jays and Leafs is they both believe analytics are still a game changer and they overthink personnel decisions at the expense of maximizing player performance.
He is brutal.
and the base running all season was amateur hour
what a waste of an opprtunity
The Toronto Maple Leafs of baseball.
Guerrerro getting picked off to end that rally is inexcusable. Brain dead baseball.
Vladdy picked off at 2 nd to end the inning with runners at 2nd and 3rd. Just awful baseball by the Jays.
@PierreVLeBrun
·
3m
Gary Bettman after Board of Governors meeting says he told owners the very preliminary revenue projections suggests a salary cap bump to between $87 M and $88 M for 2024-25 next year
———————–
Well, the 2020 MOU to the CBA extension provides for a max increase of 5% so, if HRR provides for it, it will be $87,675,000.
That essentially saws off Brown’s bonus money leaving just under a million to play with, and then with a similar increase the following season will set us up nicely for new Draisaitl and Bouchard contracts.
Foegele’s contract will lapse as well.
Vinny D will be a UFA while Holloway, Lavoie, and Broberg will be RFA’s without arb rights.
If one or more of the ELC players pops this year it could be beneficial to use Foegele’s money to go long on one or two of them.
Summer ’25 is a big year as both Draisaitl and Bouchard will need new deals.
A bunch of money gets freed up that summer: James Neal buyout: $1.9M, Connor Brown Bonus $3.5M, Cody Ceci $3.25. The cap should also rise around $4M.
That’s a little more than $12.5M in space over and above #29 & #2’s current combined $12.5M cap hits while still needing a Ceci replacement (Wanner?).
In 2026 when the McDavid deal is up, both Ekholm, Kane, and Kulak come off the books. With another $4M cap increase for ’26-’27 Oilers will have over $30M in cap space to sign #97.
Of course all of Brown and Foegele will need to be replaced and as the cap rises, so will market value of replacement players.
I would imagine a decent top 6 winger will fetch a minimum of $5 million next season while a 3rd line winger may have to be internal on an ELC.
top 6 is currently over 5
Yep…I was being conservative and the price will only escalate with a rising cap.
Good thing we have Nuge, Kane, and Hyman signed to their value contracts…….
Both Holloway and Broberg have performance bonuses that will accrue next season if earned.
Those could eat up that million.
Few fans on the side of the Oilers nor the management will be unhappy if either or both of those players perform well enough to earn those bonuses.
They will be unhappy if those bonuses accrue and it costs the Oilers an additional roster spot and have to play with an undermanned roster for another season.
If Bourgault and/or Holloway are producing 20 goals or 35 points or 60 points, well, we can worry about the bonus overage after the parade.
Pretty good problem if they hit their bonuses. Bodes well for Stanley Cup chances.
Do you even realize what the bonuses are? In order to hit $1 million in bonuses, Broberg/Holloway would have to hit at least 5 of these:
Forwards
-20 goals
-35 assists
-60 points
-Top six in Time on Ice among forwards (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
-Top three in +/- among forwards on team (minimum 42 games)
-0.73 points per game (minimum 42 games)
-End-of Season All Rookie Team
-All Star Selection
-All Star MVP
Defensemen
-10 goals
-25 assists
-40 points
-Top four in Time on Ice among Defensemen (in total and/or per game) on team (minimum 42 games)
-Top three in +/- among defensemen on team (minimum 42 games)
-0.49 points per game (minimum 42 games)
-Top two among defensemen on team in blocked shocks
-End-of Season All Rookie Team
-All Star Selection
-All Star MVP
Give me 5 of these please.
Thing is…prudent GMs have to plan as if those bonuses, in whole or in part, could accrue.
Holland plans to eat his cheerios out of the Stanley Cup if those two guys hit 5 combined bonuses.
Rob Blake is screwed then. Blake has no cap space either and Byfield, Clarke and Kaliyev all have bonus potential (more than Broberg/Holloway). Turcotte, if he suddenly turned it around also has bonus potential. And to hear you tell it, Byfield and Clarke are on the verge of superstardom, so shame on Blake for not being prudent and planning for it. Hey maybe that’s why Byfield’s performance has been so sub standard – the team has sabotaged him so LA won’t have to pay his bonuses.
The Kings have about $23 million in free cap space next season.
I expect they will have tremendous flexibility in their roster construction.
With 11 players signed, no goalies and Byfield and Kaliyev needing new contracts oh year they are likely to have huge flexibility. If those two have earned their bonuses (the situation we are actually contemplating) they will be looking for big raises too.
Not ONE core player needing a new contract other than two RFAs with no arbitration rights.
Easy peasy.
Just their 4th leading scorer from last season. No biggie. They got 37 year old Kopitar locked up though. Envy of the league.
I believe in a philosophy that states do not be afraid of dying fear never having lived! To a lesser extent this applies to failure versus success!
The Oilers are in dire straights, the (insert favour oh the month team) are poised to be perennial Cup champs, with loads of prospects and gobs of cap space.
Yawn.
HH – you’re routine is getting tired and boring.
No kidding – right? Every other GM has loads of prospects, loads of cap space, easy contract renewals. Imagine Holland/Jackson being the 32nd smartest front office in the league – on every decision, every player, every move throughout all eternity.
Yes, that indeed sounds objectively correct and not the meanderings of a chronic master-baiter.
What a pointless existence – are we sure he’s just not a Russian bot at this point?
getting??? Has been for 10 years.
Whatshisnumber, Jakob Pelletier, is out long term with a shoulder injury:
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/flames-jakob-pelletier-has-surgery-projected-to-be-out-long-term/
Jankowski on waivers. Wins faceoffs, PKs, scores a little, doesn’t get clobbered too badly at 5v5.
He’s meh but serviceable at 4C. I would rate him as good enough until the Oilers can upgrade at the deadline.
Wonder if the Oilers put in a claim.
Is he good enough to risk Lavoie on waivers?
McLeod was on the ice for morning skate.
Question (please do not flame me for my ignorance) – what are the rules for selecting a waived player… can a team select as many waived players as they want? Can they waive a selected waived player? Does a team only have to lose a certain number of waived players claimed?
Yes provided that they are under the 50 contract limit. They also have to deal with any cap space requirements.
The waiver priority order is based on the NHL standings from last season. Basically the team that finished last gets the first chance to claim a player. Once they’ve made a successful claim, they fall to the bottom of the order.
Because if this, it’s difficult to successfully claim multiple players.
There’s no limit on the number of players you can potentially lose when you place them on waivers.
This is all true but requires further info as there is another practical limit beyond the 50 contracts, salary cap and re-shuffling of the waiver order. Once a team successfully claims a player, that player goes onto their 23 player NHL active roster list where they have to remain for I believe at least 30 days – that team can’t send that player to the minors. If adding the claimed player puts them over the 23 player maximum, then they have to remove another player from their active roster (send an ELC player to the minors, waive another player, move an injured player to LTIR if eligible, trade a player without taking one back etc.).
Because of the requirement of the player having to go immediately on to the active roster, almost all teams will be practically limited barring a significant number of injuries, from wanting to or being able to claim more than a couple of players in a short period of time or even in a season.
Claims are first awarded to teams lower in the standings. Once a team has claimed a player, they are moved to the end of the list so that the next player they claimed would have to pass by every other team. For the first month or so of the season the priority list is based on last years final standings.
Bernard Docker clears – Ben Gleason would not get claimed, right?
As an aside, JJ Khaira is on waivers, a “true center”, albeit left shot.
That was mentioned mostly in jest, the Oilers are not claiming Khaira.
It is unlikely that any of the Oilers bubble guys would get claimed, but you never know.
Seeing as how Ben Gleason’s AHL salary is $425k, I would hazard a guess that league wide interest during free agent signing period for him wasn’t high.
Listening to the Ray and Dregs podcast this morning.
Some speculation about a landing spot for Patrick Kane when fully healthy.
Ferraro says keep an eye on the LAK.
Not sure who’s more connected Ferraro or the Hawks broadcaster that was on NHL on Sirius last week. That guy (forget the name) said he was hearing Minny and Detroit as possible destinations, with Buffalo not out of the question. Qualified that it was still predicated on cap situation of contenders with interest when that time rolls around. No mention of LA.
Looking at Minnesota…they recently re-signed RWs Zucarello and Foligno so looks dubious.
Detroit and Buffalo could certainly handle whatever his cap hit might be.
That’s assumes Detroit and Buffalo are actual playoff contenders this year, which is not a given.
Barring injury, Blake would have to make several moves to fit Kane in. Timing may also play a factor, but right now, with just 21 on the roster, CapFriendly has LA $123,333 under the cap, accruing $550k by the deadline.
Not saying it can’t happen, but how many more assets will Blake bleed out? He just lost another forward (Fagemo) last week to Nashville.
The most obvious move would be to trade Arvidsson but there would be some risk that Kane might not perform any better.
Agreed, and it doesn’t make them any better defensively.
Would think that the priority for LA is going to be to hold their powder and see what happens in net. Can Talbot/Copely get the job done or not.
Could be several high end goalies available at the trade deadline depending on how the season goes. If Nashville’s core isn’t good enough, do not be shocked if Saros is available and a lot of teams will be calling.
They still have Rittich hanging around camp as an insurance policy.
Would not hold my breath on “Big Save Dave”. Wheels have come off since the half season or so where he looked good in Calgary. If Blake wants to count on him in net, I would be all for it.
I’d totally be on board with Blake making more roster moves. 😆
Interesting.
Ferraro saying this morning they are his dark horse team this upcoming season.
But what the hell does he know about hockey. 🙂
Impossible. Kane is a winger and LA only plays centers in all forward spots.
Dallas is 1436 miles SE of Los Angeles.
You’ve said the same nonsense about LA. I know it’s hard for you to keep track of which team you are simping for each week.
Woody says the full PP will play tonight so we know those 5 will be in the lineup.
Sadly, OP has a client event that he’s hosting and, without any way to even tape the game, well, he will miss out on important information on some of the guys that are fighting for jobs and roles (Lavoie, Broberg, Gleason, etc.)
Jofa was wondering if you will be sharing your workout routine at the event. He is extremely interested.
Your use of third person is suitably applauded.
Jimmy likes OP new suit.
GEORGE LIKES HIS CHICKEN SPICY!
Media was really trying to get info out of Woody on Lavoie. Woody:
Ralph has had some good moments here in training camp. Obviously that goal he scored in Vancouver highlights a piece of his skill set but I have seen some growth in some other areas that we’ve asked him to take a step in. Then there have been growing moments……. he’s only played in one pre-season game before this camp, he’s been hurt, so he’s figuring out some things as well at this level. How has he looked? He’s still here. He’s continued to get better every day and he is FIGHTING for a spot on the Oilers and that’s what we want to see.
I swear that Lavoie has been the only player where, every time Woody is asked about him, he praises (as he does with everyone) but he makes sure to throw in the “growing moments” – he’s done it three times in the last week. I don’t remember him doing that with any other player during camp.
That Woody, always going on about growers vs show-ers.
The push from the Lavoie army is passionate and will continue to be.
I think it’s Woody talking TO Lavoie here. When you’ve been asking a player to change for a few years and they don’t do it, you have to really praise them for making those steps when they finally start to do it. Let them know that it’s *specifically* the changes that are getting them noticed. Keeps ’em focused on the right things.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Everyone from yesterday cleared waivers
Chris Johnston
@reporterchris
Placed on NHL waivers today: Robert Hagg (ANA), Colton White (ANA), Jayson Megna (BOS), Brett Murray (BUF), Jujhar Khaira (MIN), Vinni Lettieri (MIN), Dakota Mermis (MIN), Nic Petan (MIN), Cal Foote (NJ), Mark Jankowski (NSH), Leon Gawanke (SJ) and Jeffrey Truchon-Viel (WPG).
Really not a fan of the Nurse-Bouchard combo.
Nurse is not a defensive stalwart. His positioning and decision-making have always been lacking.
He’s good at physicality, recovering via his athleticism, and attacking.
He needs to play with a defensive defenceman.
This is the issue with the way the Oilers D is structured right now. The Oilers need to find a way to parlay Ceci/Kulak, a pick/prospect etc into a stalwart defensive (and by this I mean 2-way but geared towards smart hockey) player who can let Nurse rove.
Until then, there will be struggles.
Holland had all summer Kulak/Ceci/Foegele to trifecta them into a shutdown D that can play up in the line-up.
If only kulak had moved they could have resigned Kostin and had enough extra to bring up a replacement.
Stevie wanted Kostin he’s exactly what the Red Wings need. We finally scored in on a Patty Maroon type then Holland gifts him to Detroit.
Holland making a last gift to the wings same as how talbot came to us from Sather right before he retired as well
While Nurse does have some issues with his decision making in the defensive zone, particularly his tendency to chase the puck carrier everywhere, his biggest issue is that he’s not top-pairing calibre at making outlet passes.
Ekholm was a great partner for Bouchard because Ekholm is a complete defenseman without any real shortcomings.
Nurse will benefit from Bouchard’s passing ability. Bouch also defends the blueline well which should help Nurse. Nurse isn’t great at defending zone entries.
It’s probably in zone defending that this pairing will fall short.
Do you really think Ben Gleason gets claimed?
I mean, 4 NHL games and he’s 25. I know he’s had a very good camp, and I’m enthused, but Ty Smith clear and Benard Docker is available for free.
We talk about not putting too much stock in to exhibition season and I think that likely includes not over-valuing a few good games by a player that has a long enough history as an AHL player.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m happy for his exhibition season and he’s put himself in the conversation for 8D but I don’t think there is a big waivers risk here.
Fully agree. Every team has several Ben Gleason’s, the risk that he gets claimed after a couple of good preseason games is small.
Lets hope this is minor because, if its not, then I don’t think they can assign him and will need to have him on IR and, because he played NHL games last season, part of his cap hit would apply – not his entire cap hit but there is a formula.
I’m not sure exactly how it would work but if this is a term injury its not a non-issue for the cap.
One thing to remember is that a short term injury doesn’t allow the Oilers to keep an additional player on the roster. They can only keep an 8th d-man, for example, if Ekholm is going to be out for 10 games AND 24 days.
Same with McLeod and keeping an extra forward.
From accounts, both players should be ready for game 1 and likely to play an exhibition game. Then again, Woody has the history of not just being coy with injury status but flat out, well, lying.
Do you have proof that he lied?
every coach keeps his cards close to the vest; not sure I would call it lying
Telling the media (and public) that Ryan McLeod was just held out of practice for maintenance about an hour before he was placed on LTIR.
You’re a lawyer and you call that proof?
For all you know, McLeod could have come up to Woody prior to practice and said I am feeling a twinge, Woody sent him off to the medical staff to have it checked out, then spoke to the media after coming off the ice but before hearing from the medical staff that the injury issue is worse than anyone had thought. You don’t know what Woody knew and when he knew it. You can believe what you want, but you can’t conclusively state that Woody is a liar (and saying he has a history of lying is the same thing).
I can conclusively provide my opinion based on the facts.
Your use of the word facts is truly laughable. Pretty narrow minded individual who doesn’t allow for doubt when you don’t have all the facts and you don’t – end stop!
Telling the media (and public) that Ryan McLeod was just held out of practice for maintenance about an hour before he was placed on LTIR – FACT
No shit Sherlock – never said that wasn’t a fact! But that fact is one piece of circumstantial evidence regarding the situation. It still doesn’t prove that he lied, just that he gave information that turned out later to change. It is possible the actual circumstances in regards to McLeod’s injury status changed between the start of practice and the announcement that McLeod was going on LTIR. It easily could have been 2 to 3 hours between the time Woody found out McLeod wasn’t practicing and when the final medical determination was made. You have to assume, since you don’t actually know (FACT!) what he knew about McLeod’s condition at the time of the media discussion and when he personally found out it was bad enough to go on LTIR. And what possible motive would Woody have to lie if, as you assume, he definitely knew that McLeod was destined for LTIR within an hour.
Yikes, aggression!
I will take the facts that I had/have and the coach’s growing history of “less than honesty” with the media regarding injuries and draw the conclusions I see fit.
Lying is an underrated skill.
Wow, LHD is a bit banged up. They might all be minor injuries and they might all be ready for opening night, but, if Ekholm, Kulak, and Niemelien are all out opening night, would we see Nurse, Broberg, Gleason running with Bouchard, Ceci, Desharnais. Really shows how important depth can be. If we have to move cap at the deadline, I don’t think Kulak or Ceci should be the answers. I’d lean toward Foegele.
If Ekholm,Kulak and McLeod weren’t ready for game one but not on LTIR, wouldn’t the Oilers have to play 2 men short for cap compliance.
They can’t be sent down without waivers and we are already at 21 to meet cap.
Unless Ekholm and/or Kulak are placed on LTIR the Oilers have limited cap space for game 1 to replace both of them. Since both their salaries, if not on LTIR, would count against the effective* cap, the Oilers on day 1, if both are out could only go with 19 skaters (6 defense and 11 forwards). Keeping Gleason would send whoever the 12th forward would have been to Bakersfield and potentially through waivers (unless for this purpose they send Holloway). After 1 game at 19, they could recall an emergency player (and it couldn’t be Holloway if he is sent down, his salary is too high – but I believe Lavoie’s salary just barely qualifies for emergency recall). If McLeod is out as well and not on LTIR, the Oilers are in even worse shape.
(*yes I know all salaries on the roster including LTIR count against the cap and then there is a credit, but for ease of explanation, the net result of a salary being on LTIR and getting needing cap relief is like it doesn’t count against the effective cap in most cases)
I’d be very surprised if Ekholm and Kulak aren’t in for Game 1. I honestly expect them to be in preseason Game 8. These are veteran guys who probably don’t need a big ramping up period and it just makes sense to let them nurse the bumps and bruises rather than play the preseason schedule.
I think this training camps story is told,
Kane-McDavid-Brown
Holloway-Draisaitl-Hyman
Foegele-Hopkins-Ryan
Janmark-McLeod-Lavoie
Nurse-Bouchard
Ekholm-Broberg
Kulak-Ceci
Campbell
Skinner
PP McDavid, Draisaitl, Hopkins, Hyman, Bouchard
PK1 Janmark, Ryan
PK2 McLeod, Hopkins
PK 3 Foegele, Brown
4 line hockey until the play-offs
1-1-3 to win games by not allowing the next goal.
Deshamais platooned in as needed.
I would counter McLeod may be better 3C than RNH. it suits McLeods game. RNH has shown year after year, he is an Excellent complimentary player, but not a driver of a line. So IMO putting RNH at 3C diminishes his value. Same with dropping McLeod to 4C – limits his minutes and effectiveness.
A team certainly needs depth, but the 4th line still plays very little in tight games and late in games. So pinning McLeod to 4C is no good.
There is nothing to keep Woodcroft moving guys around in the 3rd period depending on how the game is going.
As for diminishing RNH’s value that is really of no importance since he isn’t going anywhere any time soon. McLeod will get PK time and maybe even a bit of PP2 time. RNH will see lots of PP and PK duty. I see the third and fourth line as interchangeable in terms of TOI with different games featuring them depending on the score or match ups.
The time for roster construction being about individuals is over imo. Now it is about what works best for the team to get them to the playoffs in the healthiest condition.
nuge seems to have greater team value as a top 6 winger
I agree that they likely will not be playing Nuge at 3C but I did want to note that Nuge gave an interview to Rishaug last week and Nuge said one of the things he wants to focus on is being able to drive a line when playing center – this was mostly related to being 2C when Leon/Connor are together, mind you.
Nuge would have some nice wingers, Kane & Hyman or Brown. Nuge being able to drive a second line with either of those wingers isn’t farfetched at all. And of course, Connor and Leon can dominate with whoever is on their RW,or LW, be it Kane, Hyman or Brown, Lavoie, Holloway, Foegele, Ryan or Janmark. What the heck?
It’s been a longstanding dream around here.
Deploy our C’s correctly
Even out the TOI among our forward lines .
Now, perhaps the Vegas cup win has shown some the concept – up close.
We will see. I have my doubts though.
I largely agree but have one quibble and one question.
I want to see Lavoie with Hopkins. At least until game experience shows that it isn’t working I want the ‘one shot scorer’ with an elite passer and as much as I like McLeod he is not at the level of Hopkins for that one skill.
And I wouldn’t differentiate between the third line and the fourth line that much in TOI other than how they were going in particular games. A more balanced approach. Having Ryan and Janmark on the same line also makes your PK1 a smoother transition imo. I have been on the four natural centre roster since last year and Holloway might be ready to make that possible.
The one question I have is concerning Brown and how good he is on the PK. I don’t know so I’m not sure where to slot him for that part of the game
I see you didn’t even bother to pretend there might be a PP2 worth listing. 😎
Connor Brown has between ~2 to 3 minutes per game on the PK in each season of his career except his rookie year. His coaches have thought of him as an important part of their teams’ pk. Ottawa’s PK was average his last 2 seasons there but not very good his first season and Brown’s contributions seemed to be average compared to the team and the league (based on GA/60). He was one of Toronto’s more effective penalty killers his 3 seasons there and their PK was slightly above average (10th ranked overall across the 3 seasons in terms of pk%). He did get a few Selke votes playing for Ottawa in 20/21 so does get some notice for his defensive work.
Thanks. I knew some of this which is why I was not sure if 3PK was the right slot.
Last season Nuge, Janmark, MacLeod and Ryan were used a lot on the PK of the players left (Yamamoto and Bjugstad were also on). Brown possibly breaking into one of the top 4 pk spots will depend on how quickly he picks up the Oiler’s system and shows he is fully recovered based on regular season game speed.
One surprise though might be that last season McDavid ended up playing more PK TOI per game than Derek Ryan and was getting used more and more as the season wore on. It may be that Woody uses McDavid and Brown as the last 20 to 30 second PK duo to try and get shorties and keep the other team’s PK on its toes. McDavid’s PK numbers are becoming very impressive.
I don’t see any indication they are looking to play Nuge at 3C.
True, but you did see all sorts of indications they were gifting 4C to Sutter. Training Camp, trad deadline and the draft are really not about giving away information.
Well they were on express record, both coach and management, that Sutter was the perfect fit for 4C and they were hoping he was healthy and close to his former prime self. They then played him in essentially a 4C/PK/FO role until the player retired.
They organization was clearly indicated a hope to play that player at that role, no?
Media verbal ≠ intent.
This isn’t a deposition, councillor.
I love watching the waiver wire late in camps too.
Always fun but Oilers are too far down the list for anybody of interest to make it to them imo.
I am surprised there are still 28 in camp this close to start of the season and it does make me wonder how serious some of the injuries are – or if there is a decision to delay waivers as long as possible until other teams have set their rosters. Seven cuts two games out is a lot.
I sure hope that Jay Woodcroft isn’t telling the fan-base that McLeod and Ekholm will be ready to start the season and then one (or both) of them go on LTIR to start the season (as LTIR would be the only way to add any of the presumed non-roster players).
Then again, he does have a history of doing exactly that.
A thought last night. Campbell’s been good in that he’s stopped alot of pucks but is poor rebound control the ‘shooting from the blueline’ Corsi inflation of goalies?
Asking for a friend.
This is a terrible take where was the rebound on the Cujo glove save. He seems to have the equipment figured out., he’s playing more square in the net and is quicker. There’s a tonne of Oiler trolls pitching this garbage because the bait works on some folks.
As baiting as my comment was, 1 shot where he definitely wasn’t square (great save tho, making it flashy for no reason is entertainment i enjoy) does not cover the 50 others so far.
I get it’s the time for hope and there’s almost nothing to talk about but Campbell was horrawful last year and hasn’t cleaned up the rebounds to my eye, just stopping more of them.
Hope to be wrong.
Campbell has faced 2 real NHL loaded teams on the road with 3/4 of A.H.L squad in front of him. What do you want from him? When your looking through three 6’3” players sometimes you don’t pick up the puck on a point shot till late. Mikko Kiprusoff was the king at that, doesn’t matter how just don’t let it by you. It’s a new beginning, myself I see a huge improvement in body language by Campbell who’ll be 1-A by Christmas break.
Redbird said it better than I could anyway but I want him to do it in the regular season and will remain skeptical until he shows repeatable performances in games that matter. Just like Brobey isn’t a top 4 D to me yet and Lavoie is at best a 4th liner until proven otherwise. On LT’s show, the guest, forgive me on forgetting who, was correct. Example, people seem to not care for Erne, Pederson, et. al when they’ve all accomplished more at the NHL than Lavoie and it’s not close.
My fan experience has been predicated on hope too long and like all lines of work, absolutes and effective risk management are far more appealing than hope. It’s not always possible in today’s NHL.
It’s a good sign, nothing more.
No need to over-exaggerate facts as I wouldn’t say that 10 NHL regulars (out of 18 skaters), including McDavid, Drai and Hyman is a 3/4 AHL roster.
Most are quite heartened by the way Campbell has played in his two exhibition games but any sort of caution with the optimism is certainly warranted.
I’m all over the Campbell choo choo train. If can play likes he knows he can and judging by his body language it’s possible. I foresee him being a top 5 Goaltender this season. From the outhouse to the penthouse.
Its fine to predict and opine that he will have a great year but your post was simply made up information to try and propagate your opinion.
Your counter to a general observation is one glove save? I believe Campbell has done well and that he can only stop the shots fired at him, so good for him so far, but Pendergast is not totally off base nor is LT. Per Naturalstattrick, Campbell’s average shot against distance is 38 feet vs 34 feet last season and 38 feet is a high average (ie more point shots). But his goal against distance is down from 20 feet to 7 so that is a plus so far (in a 2 game exhibition game sample set.
And on rebound attempts against, in 2 games he has had 7.4 against per 60 vs an average of 4 per 60 last season. The median for all goalies playing at least 60 minutes is also 4, so the rebound attempts against in those 2 games is high. By comparison, Skinner is his two games has seen only 1.99 rebound attempts against per 60. It is certainly not all on the goalie, since it is all influenced by where the shot came from, screens, tips, and how well the team blocks out the net front and clears any rebounds. And the personnel if front of the goalies differed between games.
I remain optimistic that Campbell will play much better than he did last season, and the signs are good so far. But 2 exhibition games and effectively 2 playoff games (~120 minutes in TOI) don’t yet provide certainty that Campbell is again the player that Holland believed he had signed.
I would rather see a point blank shot kicked into the corner than the puck going in the net. Methinks that’s why Skinner has a better rebound stat.
Sure everyone would prefer that, but methinks your understanding of the rebound stats is incorrect. The shot kicked into the corner will rarely have a subsequent shot attempt counted as a rebound attempt against. More rebounds left out in front of the net will result in higher rebound attempts against.