I’m not absolutely certain how Oilers general manager Ken Holland feels today, but my guess is he’ll be relieved when he finds out what NHL city Raphael Lavoie will sleep in tonight. There were alternatives, they’re all gone now. My thoughts? I don’t think Lavoie will be an Oilers roster player when he makes his NHL debut.
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers’ Brady Stonehouse signing an important indicator for the future
- Lowetide: Why the Oilers’ veteran-laden AHL team offers better depth
- DNB: Jack Campbell has earned the right to start opening night for the Oilers
- Lowetide: Why Mattias Ekholm’s injury situation is a worry for the Oilers
- Lowetide: With Oilers rookies in short supply, expect more from sophomores
- DNB: Five intriguing Edmonton Oilers developments from the preseason
- Lowetide: Do the Edmonton Oilers have a blockbuster trade in their future?
- DNB: Oilers release Brandon Sutter from tryout offer
- Lowetide: Oilers reaching critical pressure point with prospect Raphael Lavoie
- DNB: A third Edmonton Oilers tenure, no matter the odds, is Sam Gagner’s goal
- Lowetide: Should the Edmonton Oilers alter how Connor McDavid is deployed?
- DNB: Oilers, Flames unveil Heritage Classic jerseys: How do we rate them?
- DNB: Vincent Desharnais Q&A
HAPPY THANKSGIVING
I usually post this on Sunday but had a tough Saturday night so waited a heartbeat and that is today. I’m fine, the kids are fine, but the year has been a difficult journey. It isn’t my place to tell you their sorrow, but I will tell every Mom reading that children know they get the best of you. I’ve heard hundreds of stories from my two children about their exceptional Mom (my wife). Of course I knew, but hearing them has been a flood of confirmation about the girl I married. What a beautiful soul.
The dog is fine and she suffered so much from the loss of Jo-Anne I’m crying just telling you about it. I wasn’t quite ready for my Ziggy to look at the door every night for months, giving up only recently on seeing Jo-Anne walk through the door. A painful experience. Please hug your dog, and the next 10 dogs you see. What an amazing friend.
I’m no expert in grief and couldn’t instruct anyone in how to live after losing their life partner, but have learned a few things in the last year.
First, time heals. Don’t ever question the wisdom of that phrase. My first three months after Jo-Anne passed were a pretty dark place. I still go to that place, but less often and for brief periods.
Second, connecting with people has been a key for me. I’m not going to tell you their names, but great people have entered my life and helped guide me. I’m not sure if I chose them or they chose me, but humans heal the broken because they are kind. I’ll never discount the goodness in people. Ever.
Third, I do things that take me to new experiences. I don’t do things that remind me of her. I know that might sound bad but I can’t survive if I linger on my past. Jo-Anne is in my thoughts approximately 1,000 times a day, even with my efforts to distract myself from her loss. I actively seek out things that are not in our shared past. It works.
I walk every day. It drains the anxiety from me.
I am ready to venture forth to see what the world has for me. I don’t know what it looks like. I feel anticipation and that’s a good thing. I find myself surprised this old heart of mine is open and yet I am here. Humans are capable of many things, I suspect this is one of the more extraordinary experiences I’ll have in life. A new page in my 60’s wasn’t in my thoughts. I am one completely fucked up human. I’m here through grace and the human spirit. I plan to be the author of my future. That is progress.
RAPHAEL LAVOIE
It’s a brazen risk or a bad mistake. There’s no way to sugarcoat this one. Ken Holland was reckless yesterday and if the hockey Gods have any sense of justice (they don’t, but love to punish) then another team will choose Lavoie.
He’s exactly the player you should never place on waivers. Why?
- He is an untested talent. The Oilers never gave themselves a chance to see what he can do in the NHL.
- He is a value contract.
- He can do the most difficult thing in hockey: Score goals.
- He has flaws, but the only way to improve is to play in the NHL. The Oilers walked him right to the edge of a dream and then flushed him.
- He is still developing. His bully-per-60 increased last season and Lavoie is so much better in moving his feet during play.
- The Oilers are taking high-end skill for granted. It’s a losing end. Good teams never worry about the sixes and sevens and nines, but hold close those who could be jacks and kings and aces.
I don’t lash out at hockey players, coaches or management. I got that out of my system ages ago. I do believe Jeff Jackson’s Edmonton Oilers took an unnecessary risk yesterday. I think that’s a fair description of the situation. If the organization pays for it, I’m going to hammer them in the morning, hammer them in the evening, hammer them all over this land.
Is this HH in real life?
Hair is too dark.
Well 31 other GMs agree with Holland about Lavoie not being ready for regular use at the NHL level. We now have a ton of flexibility to move him up or down for a while. From CapFriendly:
A player does not need to pass through waivers if the player has not been on the NHL active roster for a cumulative 30 days since last clearing waivers, OR has not played in 10 or more NHL games. CBA Reference 13.2(b)
I like the Lavoie’s size and shot, but listening to him speak, my totally uninformed feeling is that he might not be the best teammate or easiest guy to be around. Holland values those intangibles a lot and so do most GMs.
As for 4C – low hanging fruit and we have all season to fix it.
I don’t recommend relying on “uninformed feelings” to judge people you’ve never met face to face. There are a lot of young folks who don’t come across well when they are in front of a camera with a half a dozen or more strangers with microphones thrust in your face.
But I could be wrong….
Hey I agree but he did fall out of the first round for some reason, he did struggle in the AHL for some reason, he did argue with his coach last year for some reason, he didn’t get called up for some reason. There’s been a fair bit of negative narrative in the mainstream press about him. That said he can score goals and nobody said you have to be a sweetheart to play pro hockey.
— Beautiful stuff…. In San Fran. Our 2nd youngest who’s 4 seeing his great grandmother. Family bonds are special.
— Sorry for your pain LT.
It strikes me odd that everyone (including DNB) is talking about 11/6 or 11/7 on Wednesday due to the Niemalainen injury.
Seems like a very easy move would be to put Niemalainen on LTIR immediately after submitting a compliant roster, and then adding a 12th forward before Wednesday.
There’s no good reason I can see for them to play a player short on Wednesday in order to access an emergency call-up on Saturday.
Only works if Neimo qualifies for LTIR. Would be great for him and his bank account though.
I think LTIR is basically at team choice at this stage of the season.
From accounts (Gregor and some others), they don’t plan on putting Niemo on LTIR – he’ll be re-evaluated but I don’t think that he’s supposed to be out for 24 days and 10 games – that would truly suck if they were in LTIR for the first eight of the season.
If the NHL Dmen are healthy enough for 11/7 then it definitely makes sense to wait until Niemelainen can be sent down.
If not, then it’s a choice between playing a game short vs the LTIR stint.
Not sure what the team would prefer, though healthy enough for 11/7 would obviously be the best outcome at this point.
Oh my – Friedman is reporting that Vancouver is trying to play hard to get with Elias Pettersson.
I think the Canucks have something big brewing … possible a 6-for-1 deal to stock up on magic beans, marginal wingers and bottom pairing defensemen. Then they’ll use the magic beans to draft more marginal wingers and bottom pairing defensemen.
Their marginal fans deserve nothing less
Saying Holland dodged a bullet is like saying Neo dodged a bullet.
Exactly! If it turns out well for the Oilers, Holland got lucky. If it turns out bad for the Oilers, Holland doesn’t know what he is doing? Thankfully, Holland does his job doing what he thinks is right and doesn’t pay attention to the outside noise, which is almost always less informed than he is.
Go back and listen to the press conference after he was hired. Within the first 10 minutes he said he wasn’t perfect but he has stuck to his plans making adjustments/tweaks to that plan as circumstances dictate (eg. no cap growth, Klefbom injury etc.). The team has been getting better every season since he got here. I look forward to this season.
Yes.
Oilers fans talk about him like he is the second coming of Tambo.
(Including me sometimes— I still think his goalie decisions are heinous lol)
Haha…. “There is no bullet”… love it.
DNB spoke to Holland who pretty much said that Lavoie wouldn’t have been on the team even without the Niemo situation – basically saying he’d be on the team if they could carry 13 or 14 forwards but they need everyone running – don’t have time for growing pains.
https://theathletic.com/4947070/2023/10/09/oilers-roster-raphael-lavoie/
I understand what Holland is saying on Lavoie and not having time for growing pains and needing to ice the best roster right away – I agree with all of that but, at the same time, I don’t see any of Pederson or Erne, and certainly not Hamblin or Malone, making the team better than Lavoie right now, today.
For me, this seems a continuation of what I’ve personally seen as a bias against younger players – assuming that they will make more, or more material, mistakes than older or more experienced players and I don’t think its always the right analysis.
For example, Lavoie didn’t do much in the 8th exhibition game but what he didn’t do is make a couple of poor plays like Pederson did – he took a bad icing when he had time and he made a poor play at the offensive blue that led to a 2 on 1 the other way (made in to a 2 on 2 by a great backcheck by Ceci).
For me, a guy like Pederson does not provide more stability in this regard than Lavoie – its based on a veteran bias, in my opinon.
Even a guy like Malone – he’s seen as a trusted vet that doesn’t hurt the team – well, I’ve seen him lose important faceoff and lose his center for goals against, I’ve seen him take bad penalties, I’ve seen him not get the puck out.
For me, the tweeners/AHL vets that are of option are no more “trustworthy” than Lavoie would be but its a bias towards vets and older players without regard to, as Woody says, “using our eyes”.
Similar to Bjugstad over McLeod against Eichel.
I agree 100% with this take. Further, early in the season is when you test drive your younger players to see what you have. If you determine a need for vets that can play a more responsible game, pick them up at the deadline for the playoffs.
I see a lot of other cup contenders doing this every year. Keep and play the players with the higher upside regardless of their age or experience.
People’s heads are going to explode when Pederson gets called up before Lavoie.
Thing is, I felt that Bourgault was actually better during preseason than Lavoie. Small sample size, but now we will get a chance to see both of these guys in the AHL.
I agree, re:Bourgault, he seemed to improve incrementally every game. He will be a very important depth piece as soon as later this season and absolutely next season.
Pederson and Malone were waived as well FFS
Yes, I know, however, the article implies both will be call-up options prior to Lavoie.
Also totally agree. Playing a lesser capability “trusted vet” with a lower ceiling seems shortsighted. And as you point out Lavoie didn’t “fail” by making a bunch of errors. As has been said anchoring him to lesser players severely limited his ability to “wow” anyone and even with that he was as good as others in terms of errors. Personally I see no situation in which playing him over Pederson, Erne or please please please no Malone puts the Oilers game at high risk.
This has been the Holland MO forever. Over-ripe and all.
A prospect has to really wow management. The only prospect to do so was Dylan Larkin… am I missing anyone?
If the team doesn’t have time to give away any points on young player mistakes, why did they continue to run Campbell out there last year? Yeah, Campbell is not a young player but they squandered 8-10 points on Campbell’s play last year and he cost them first place in the conference.
Certainly the play should be to integrate the younger players earlier (Holloway, Broberg and Bouchard and Skinner before that) as they need these young players to contribute and to contribute as value contracts.
I thought the reason they continued to run with Campbell last year was that Skinner had an extended sickness and was taking awhile to recover. But maybe I’m misremembering.
Don’t want no green bananas.
Thanks for all that you do keeping us informed and entertained Allan. Yes I hugged my dog today, I can’t even imagine how much she would miss Aurelia (or heck, maybe me). I am so glad to have you back on the airwaves, that hippy summer was probably fine but I know how much you put into your work.
-Ken Bauer (dialing in from Guadalajara).
Hola from Merida, fellow Lowetidian!
The Thursday market at parque central in Merida is wonderful.
Had the best tamales of my life near there.
I live about 14 blocks east of there, in Mejorada/Chembech. Love it! Only about 5 blocks from Eladio’s and Wayane’s (best tacos ever, and CHEAP!!)
Honestly, we won’t know for about 3 years about how badly we almost screwed up. At that point, Lavoie will either be a big right handed productive middle 6 scoring winger that every team would love to have or he’ll be just another tweener who never quite figured it out.
What I do want to critique is the decision making process. People here and on the site formerly known as Twitter, rightly pointed out that the Oilers could have easily waived Janmark. There was a good argument capwise (more accrued cap space at trade deadline) and actual better long term potential in keeping Lavoie over Janmark.
In terms of risk profile, Janmark would have been considered by maybe(!) 3 cup contending teams as a waiver pickup to replace their own depth forward. In the end, the other 30 teams would look at their own 12th, 13th or 14th forwards and see they probably have the same or higher possible ceilings than Janmark and not even bother. Lavoie’s age, production, skills and potential probably had 20+ teams at least talking about making a claim.
We made a high stakes gamble that we could sneak Lavoie through with the flood of other final training camp waivers. We won but don’t discount the stupid unnecessary risk that we took in that decision.
Our prospect cupboard is bare and we just gambled on possibly losing a rare high draft pick we drafted and invested 4 years of resources and development. Lavoie’s on the cusp of the NHL and one of our *only* NHL ready depth forwards and we took a chance that anyone could take him for free. Idiotic decisions like this is why we haven’t won anything during McDavid’s tenure let alone in the past 3 decades.
There have been several comments about waiving Janmark having “other” cap implications. If that is so, could those of you with this information explain?
Obviously if that is not the case then indeed taking the risk on a Lavoie loss for no return is an odd move.
Management and coaching staff have determined that Janmark gives the team a better chance to win right now, today, than Lavoie – they are very likely right.
This massive risk was likely a minute risk in reality, something that was known by Holland.
I’m sure Holland and his team know the organizational depth chart of all other teams, along with their cap situations, their waiver eligibe/exempt players, etc., along with direct knowledge of Lavoie’s value through the league (Kenny talks to alot of other managers).
I’m sure he had a very good idea he’d clear.
Not to mention other nuances such as the fact that Janmark would not be available for emergency recall but Lavoie will be – there is a non-zero chance that could be a thing and early.
Not to mention, not a single one of the 31 other teams wanted to put this player on their roster for no acquisition cost.
To use the phrase “high stakes gamble” seems out of line with reality.
————–
The issue for me is the subsequent info that Lavoie would have been waived even if they had room for 12F to start and he’s likely 13F or 14F given they don’t have time for his “rookie mistakes”.
I don’t see Lavoie making any more mistakes out there than Lane Pederson, less actually, and Brad Malone has made his fair share (and big ones) in his limited minutes over the last few years.
This coach (and management) have a bias against young players and for vets that seems to go against “using their eyes”.
Right, because your eyes watching the game on TV pick up everything, meanwhile the entire coaching staff watching hours of video of every play/decision each player makes with and without the puck in every game miss a whole bunch.
Well, I guess we should just ensure that there are no comments with opinions that disagree with anything management or the coaches do as that response would be applicable to all such comments.
Would be alot quieter in here.
Express your opinion with a little more humility instead insulting the coaches’ intelligence and integrity. And at least appear like you understand that the coach does have access to additional info. Otherwise you are rightly subject to having your opinion called out.
The injury Kulak has been dealing with is a shoulder – sounds like he’s very close to good to go.
I miss Noah Philp
Geezus – I just hugged my dog…..
Any man or woman who hugs/loves their dog are a notch above most. *No ill intended to those with dog allergies.*
Elliotte Friedman reposted
Winnipeg Jets
@NHLJets
HERE TO STAY https://abs-0.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f624.svg
Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck have signed identical seven-year contract extensions with an average annual value of $8,500,000.
I was actually worried that the Kings will trade for Hellebyuck at the trade deadline.
This is fantastic news
Oof. Fantastic news indeed, unless you’re a Jets fan.
I think Jets fans are pretty happy today. I’m happy for them too.
Those contracts take both players to age 39 which carries huge risk but I’m sure Jets fans will be happy for 3-4 years.
Scheifele’s not going to age well. Not sure he’s worth $8.5m right now. That’s a lot for a marginal first liner who doesn’t care at all about playing any defense. If Scheifele’s one of your top forwards your team is locked into mediocrity.
Mediocrity is better than being a cellar dweller for the Jets market. Having Scheifele’s 30-40 goals/year gives that team a chance to make the playoffs. The defence part is taken care of on the other end by Hellebuyck.
Calgary has taken the same approach.
Wait, Jets fans should be happy for 4 years but again curves mean that Jack Campbell is done – the same Jack Campbell that is one year older than Connor H.?
Many elite goalies age well. Luongo, Roy, Brodeur, Tim Thomas were all still near-prime at age 37.
I agree that the Scheifele contract will not age well. The Jets probably had to sign Scheifele to convince Hellebuyck to sign. As long as Scheifele doesn’t have a full NTC, he should be moveable.
Totally agree. LA has already given us playoff scares – with Hellebuyck they would be genuinely fearsome. That is the best part of Hellebuyck staying in the ‘Peg.
I’m happy for the Jets, though. Hellebuyck makes them competitive. I honestly think that goalies who are consistent Top 5 guys in the league (Hellebuyck, Shesterkin, Sorokin, Oettinger, maybe Saros) are easily worth $10M+, maybe $12M+.
Hockey is mostly goalie. And goalies are mostly voodoo. But not those guys. I wish we had one.
So Lavoie and Pederson can be sent to Bakersfield. What happens with Gleason? Free to sign anywhere? Could Oilers sign him for Condors? My uneducated opinion saw him better than both Nemo and Vinny. (yes I know they value Vinny’s toughness!)
Gleason is under contract with Edmonton for the next two seasons. If this season is like most, then injuries will eventually necessitate recalling him, after another D-man is put on LTIR.
Thanks!
So, if I get this right…with the injury to Neimo, the team can’t even dress 12 forwards…?
I think they can bring a forward up on emergency recall making under 900K?
For Saturday’s game yes, not for Wednesday’s opener iirc.
Not until they play a game short so, no, they will only have 11 forwards on Wed. Threshold is $875K (league min plus $100K).
If McLeod, Kulak and Ekholm are good to go, they can dress 11-7 anyway.
Since Niemo can’t play because he is hurt and Ekholm may not play…hopefully Kulak and McLeod are able to play so they can go 11-6!!
Sounds like McLeod and Kulak are all but officially good to go and Ekholm also practiced fully today.
Thank goodness we survived the yearly fretting over exposing a tweener prospect to waivers.
See ya same time next year
Every single season.
People were adamant Tyler Benson would be claimed in year’s past.
Shit, some were convinced Gleason, after 4-straight years in the AHL, would be claimed based off of a strong exhibition season.
I’ve long said that we over-value our own prospects here, and am on record stating that the internet scouts organizational prospect rankings are nothing more than click bait.
Draft and develop is important to the health of an organization, especially when you don’t have a superstar player. And yes, having more draft picks gives you a better chance at getting that type of player.
But the priorities change once you do (let alone 2 of them) … if there is a chance to get an actual NHL player that fits a need on your NHL roster, then you should not hesitate to move picks and prospects to improve your chances at winning Stanley.
You can have all the magic beans in the world, but I’d rather see the Oilers win a Cup at some point in my adult years. If this means that you don’t have a deep prospect pool, then so be it. Neither do any of the teams that have won recently … I doubt they regret it.
I want multiple Cups like Chicago who were surrounded by talent in every direction. By selling the farm does not quarantree you even 1 Cup.
You were dead certain Lavoie was gone to the Habs or Senators. That certainty looks pretty silly right now. Just like most of your “book its”.
I always said he would get definitely claimed but if not he’ll get traded for another waiver wire Centre. You still must feel like a Jester after I called the old man injury to James Neal putting him on LTIR to start the year so the Oilers would be cap compliant. I remember how you went on and on in a spiel about ethics and a morality. Now this seems to have been a stradegy by the last 3 cup winners with the dead cap.
Well, what else is there to do? 🙂
Oilers fans always have to have a lightning rod forward to get all antsy about – it’s like a tradition around these parts: from MA Pouliot to Nail Yakupov to Jesse Puljujarvi and now Raphael Lavoie.
I just hope RL has a better career that those other former heart throbs.
Step 1 – get angry, go down to the Bake, and dominate that level.
Step 2 – get called up and never look back.
He might be back as soon as Niemo is healthy and be sent down.
He might be back as soon as Saturday if Ekholm or Kulak can’t go on Wed, they play short and noone is returning for Sat.
Live feed of Oil fans everywhere at 12:01 local time:
https://images.app.goo.gl/htwdbUStUmtHxdvA6
We’ve now survived the Sutter Scare and the hotly anticipated Larceny of Lavoie.
Come out the other side more than ok with the best lineup in over a generation.
Is This Soup, the Real Soup?
What’s next for the Greatest Man Advantage on Earth?
Have they found some duct-tape for the PK, just enough to keep up the wicked offense for funsies?
Health.. always health. We speak to the Old Hockey Gods and the New. Give us health.
For the regular season this is when they start to Waltz. Well and truly Waltz like they did from 83-87. What we saw after the deadline last year is the new normal. I think this is going to be a very fun year. The Outsiders can’t ignore it anymore. It’ll be tough to talk it down. So many National U.S. games, so many HNIC games. Everyone gets to enjoy it with us. We all get to see how high they can fly. Remember to be courteous. Every set of eyeballs is an Oiler fan in waiting. They may be misinformed and cheer for lesser teams. But there is always room on the Bus.
I think the PK will be ok. It saw some improvement once Janmark came back from the AHL, and a marked improvement once EKholm arrived. Add in a good training camp installing better system play and we will be OK – I figure at least league average if not better. I am also expecting noticeable improvement to goal differential 5 on 5 as well for similar reasons.
Al – thanks, as always, for being such a great human. I often think about what a good example you are to your fellow men in particular. Thanks for being so open about your grief – hard for men in our culture to be open about their feelings, and you set a great example.
My continuing condolences to you, Ziggy, and the kids.
The rest of the league isn’t as obsessed with our 2019 second round pick as we are? Crazy!
lol exactly.
The sky is falling! The sky is fall… Oh. Wait.
On to the next “crisis.” Is the unproven Broberg being “ruined” by Woodcroft? That’s my top candidate. Maybe the goalie debate though.
Funny how Oilers fan anxiety manifests when the definition of disaster season switches from “we might lose 60 games” to “we might not make the western conference finals”.
That’s because it’s the finals for the Truck &Tractor Pull today.
It was a stupid decision to put RL on waivers.
That said, there was little risk he would get claimed. I think he could have a decent NHL career. But he certainly has not blown the doors off the AHL yet. 23 year old prospect with no NHL games.
The obsession with RL is in part a function of the Oiler’s poor prospect pool.
Really it goes back to LT’s oft repeated refrain, “ why can’t we have nice things”, like a prospect pool consisting of home-grown 2nd-7th rounders.
Raph represents that part of HOPE that included useful youthful reinforcements, much like what Tampa Bay were able to pull off when they ruled the Chel.
Kane, RNH & Hyman are all signed for the next 3 to 5 years so barring unforeseen catastrophe there is really only one top six spot available for the foreseeable future with Bourgault, Lavoie, Holloway and others potential replacements internally or FA signings or trades also on the table. Maybe Brown decides he likes it here. Let’s not forget that Kane, Hyman & Brown all arrived as free agents. Neither McDavid or Draisaitl is likely to be replaced through prospect development so if/when they are gone the window is already closing.
I see talk of cheap contracts all the time but when you are drafting 25th or higher every year even a winger will probably arrive with only one year left on their ELC and if he is good enough to be in the top six of a contending team that second contract is unlikely to be much of a bargain.
Yes, it is nice to have lots of prospects to talk about but I really don’t see a lot of places to put them. For a team like the Oilers with such a strong offensive top six I prefer veterans dominating the bottom end of the roster plucked from the FA pile to rookies.
Contrast this with Dallas.
They’ve successfully transitioned from their Benn/Seguin era to another period of sustained excellence through superb drafting and development.
With Benn and Seguin nearing the end, they’ve already acquired the elite pieces they need to be contenders for a long time and haven’t been shy about making room for players like Hintz, Robertson and Johnston with a couple more high end prospects knocking on the door.
This will be an interesting comparison when 29/97 are nearing the end of their time in Edmonton. If Edmonton wins a cup with McDavid and Leon in their prime they will obviously have won that comparison as Dallas Stars didn’t win any cups during Seguin/Benn era.
Dallas also missed the playoffs twice during the transition of their core from old guard to new guard and snuck in a couple times. Impressive turnaround for sure, but success is measured in cups so we will see which approach is more successful. Right now the score is tied 0-0.
Yr / NHL rank
22-23 4th
21- 22 8th
21 17th
19-20 10th
18-19 t-15th
17-18 19th
16-17 t24th
15 -16 2nd
Yep…a couple of wobbly steps but recovered very well.
Both are serious cup contenders this season but the Stars are set up for long term success while the Oilers are pretty much in now or never territory unless they do something drastic to replenish the prospect pool.
Worth noting that Dallas has two blue chip forward prospects in Logan Stankhoven and Mavrik Bourque in Cedar Park as well as having drafted a shit ton of highly regarded D prospects including several right handers.
And of course their new core of Hintz, Robertson, Heiskanen and the top goaltender in the WC are all relatively young.
I have Oilers having a pretty long window depending on if/how long 29/97 extend for.
Forward are more veteran but most are still in prime with more prime years ahead of them.
Defense is still quite young other than Ekholm
Goal has a Calder candidate from last year, so obviously that should have lots of time ahead of him.
Oilers definitely could use a few blue chip prospects, but the next 3 to 5 yrs should be very good teams. Once you get that far out it just becomes a guessing game.
Saying that I would wager Edmonton wins more cups in the next 5yrs than Dallas.
The term blue chip gets thrown around (and intentially not throw around) in order to fit the narrative.
If Mavrik Bourque is blue-chip then so is Xavier Bourgault!
Hintz is older than McDavid. Or same age as Leon. And light years behind both of them in talent. Robertson is only 2 years younger than McDavid. And again way behind the Oilers dynamic duo.
What keeps ya coming back, Skippy?
I do not believe a word you say given past prophecy. Your word has no weight. You are full of it. No clue. Clueless. And you expect us to believe you are some kind of gambling winner. Very doubtful. Given this is a math blog, very low probability with thin tails.
It really was not a stupid decision when you look at it.
They couldn’t move Broberg or Holloway down, otherwise their cap hits would have cost more this season due to bonus.
They couldn’t move Janmark (ok you could) but if you have to play short handed and use an emergency call up, his cap hit made him ineligible.
It was really the only choice available other than a trade.
We live for another day. Carry on.
This part isn’t true (the bonus part – Bruce was incorrect).
What is true though is they “couldn’t” move those two down because, well, that would be making the team worse.
For one, they have 8D on the roster but only 5 fully healthy. I don’t think moving Broberg down and risking playing with 4D on Wednesday would be a solid move – not to mention, he makes this team better – solidly in the top 6 d-man, healthy d-men.
Sure, they could have moved Holloway to the AHL but, well, that’s just making the team worse and would be a terrible way to start the year.
I’m confidant that Holland was confidant there would be no claim on Lavoie.
What is the world coming to if we can’t trust Bruce? (I kid).
Perhaps I misremember this… but if a player is on the roster to begin the season their bonuses, earned or not, are not considered when determining cap compliance until earned. When a player is recalled who was NOT on the roster at start of season, their bonuses ARE included in their cap hit for Cap compliance and adjusted off the final cap spending at year’s end if not earned. Is this correct or not? It would mean having to allow for potential bonuses in daily Cap compliance at time of recall would be a limiting factor in who gets demoted at season’s start, given our tight money….
That’s only relevant when setting the LTIR bonus pool reserves which happens the day the team enters LTIR.
That’s not a factor in the normal course (which the Oilers are currently in, unless they do end up placing Niemo on LTIR which I think is unlikely, at least right now).
I apologize if I misremembered this. My saved link to the CBA on the NHL.com site no longer works! Anyone have a clarification?
Stupid is not the word I would use. It was an unfortunate situation, but these are also men, not just chess pieces. We don’t know the interpersonal stuff, like individual relationships and morale of other players, how moves play within the dressing room, with agents, with players’ individual family situations… but rest assured management has some kind of read on these factors as well.
All of this was precipitated by one last year of relatively flat Cap. As difficult as maneuvering will be, I agree with the shortened roster for this year to preserve team assets, rather than throwing the baby out with the bathwater by moving a mid salaried player like Kulak/Ceci/Foegele just to have a 22 or 23 man roster.. especially when jury is still out, des[ite our hopes, on the up and comers being ready to supplant said players.
We would be a lesser team depth wse if we dumped good layers just to force a larger roster at this time. Better to push it forward and see how the young uns progress in regular season games before making any moves in that vein.
As posited, GM’s aren’t lining up to claim 23 year old, former 2nd round picks, coming off a good but not great AHL season (90th in points, higher in goals), with zero NHL games, making more than league min in the NHL and once again cut from an NHL team with a forward roster spot open (although he probably would not have even been waived if they had a 12F spot).
The risk was not zero but years and years and years of history (and even the clears over the last few days) have informed us that this player is generally clears.
The claims that “100% he will be taken” never made sense given, well, history.
Lets also not forget that Ken Holland, and his team, would have much more info on other team’s “needs” and their own rosters and tweeners, etc. and would l likely have a very good sense.
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Gleason was never a waiver risk – the chances were all but zero he would be claimed.
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If Ekholm can’t play on for a few games, one of Pederson or Lavoie are likely up on emergency call-up for Saturday.
https://twitter.com/ByronMBader/status/1711093656063791195
We give NHL GM’s too much credit. How can a team like the Blackhawks not claim Lavoie as a flier and give him 20+ games? They have like 3 NHL quality forwards (not including aging riff-raff like Perry and Foligno) and yet have no room for a NHL ready prospect? They should be claiming multiple players off of waivers.
They’ve got 7 picks in the first 3 rounds this season, they are trying to stick up on top skilled prospects to build around/support Bedard. They prefer to be cellar dwellers for the next couple of years.
Then, in years 5-8, their ultimate plan will be set in motion. Mwa ha ha ha.
They would’ve still been cellar dwellers had they claimed Lavoie … but Lavoie might have blossomed with the opportunity and helped pull them out of the cellar sooner.
Let Chicago collect their magic beans … success is not guaranteed no matter how many draft picks they stockpile.
Wait….whaaaat?
It worked for the Oilers now, dinnit?
😀😀😀😀😀😀😀
Please take a moment to remember the goat I needed to sacrifice to appease the hockey gods. 😀
Thank you. Someone has to do the Lord’s work.
🤣👍🏽
I don’t know if Ralph will be a solid NHL player. What I do know is that the top organizations are able to negotiate the cap (don’t feel hostage to it or paralyzed by it) and get something for 6’4 edgy first shot scorers that can skate
Or do top organizations keep them in the AHL developing until they need them (injury etc) or they show so much they have no choice?
I figure that his agent was trying to wrangle a higher AHL wage, but couldn’t, so ent with a higher 1 year deal….
As much as I didn’t like it from my selfish standpoint, he is the one who has had to will himself to take his talents as far as he’s gotten and I will always support him in his rights to bet on himself.
Oh hey! The edit feature is working again, I really missed it, yay!!! 😀
Now it’s time to work on the block/ignore feature!
Wait….whaaaat?
😀😀😀😘
I figure that his agent was trying to wrangle a higher AHL wage, but couldn’t, so ent with a higher 1 year deal….
Nope – its known that the Oilers offered Lavoie a league min deal with a much higher AHL deal but Lavoie opted for his QO.
Hart from Puckpedia (and others) have reported that.
Regardless of what was reported, I still have a right to figure wrong.
It’s right in there as a part of the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms….
Woooooooo
Long live 62!
We are now on Lavoie trade watch.
Raphael Satan?
Sacrificing goats and Satan mentioned on Thanksgiving.
Just typical subjects we discuss on a fanatical Canadian hockey blog!
Go Oilers!!
😀😀😀😀😀😀😀
Gotta make room for a grinder like Erne.
It’s against organization policy to have a 4th line that runs the risk of scoring on occasion.
LAVOIE CLEARS.
– as per 1440 pioneer Jason Gregor.
I added the caps. LFG!
Rishaug confirmed also, along with Gleason and Pederson clearing.
Flames took Greer, only damper on the day.
Nobody wanted our leftovers?
Should we feel insulted? 😎
Only if your Dion Phaneuf.
Why am I not surprised that you have a thing for Avery when even his own Captain (Modano) wanted him off his team.
Is this the same Mike Modano who was ambushed of his 1500th game under Sri Hollands watch. Why do you think Phaneuf was traded internal problems with the Captain and other players.
Lavoie has cleared waivers!
Reeeeefresh!!!!
Outstanding words from our fine host. I hope he appreciates how many here are thinking of him.
So many carried water for the coach and management…..Lavoie is untested. Oilers approach to Lavoie was telegraphed in training camp.
LT nails it and so does Godot.
Nobody is claiming Lavoie does not have flaws. Nobody.
Also, Lavoie is not a line driver. Never will be. But his age, size and laser beam shot – make him too valuable to risk losing. By a large margin.
Holloway, McLeod and Lavoie would have been an appealing option.
Derek Ryan turns 37 years old in a little over two months.
Happy Thanksgiving LT and all
Bless you Al and your kids. I am positive that I am not alone I saying I still get choked up when you share
Does Raphael Whitney clear?
LT, your words are inspiring. May you continue to find peace each day on your journey as you courageously deal with your grief.
And Happy Thanksgiving to all.
If Lavoie is claimed, I could see the flames being the team.
Although this isn’t the best on Ekholm – at least its trending to have Kulak in the lineup on Wed.
Ryan Rishaug
@TSNRyanRishaug
·
18m
D pairings at practice.
Nurse Bouchard
Kulak Ceci
Broberg Desharnais
Ekholm
Kulak was probably not soft tissue, and he has played exhibition games, so he can be back quicker and closer to ready.
Ekholm was soft tissue, no training camp at all, so they will have to ease him in as #7
The schedule to start the year is generous for test running the extended defense. Lots of days between games, lots of practice time.
Ekholm could be eased in through Nov. 1 if you really wanted to. Ideally you’re rocking and rolling by the Minny game on Oct 24.
Holloway/McLeod/Foegele – YES!
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
10m
Oilers lines at practice:
Kane-McDavid-Brown
RNH-Draisaitl-Hyman
Holloway-McLeod-Foegele
Janmark-Ryan
Drai – Hyman.
If Woody was a baseball manager you get the sense he would have his players bunt a lot.
Ya, Drai/Hyman (without McDavid) has been a tire fire over 2 seasons. It could change, sure, but its developed a history.
Woody has been fully locked on McDavid/Brown, from day one so we are where we are.
With RNH out on the ice with them, they have a 50% goal share. And the second line should improve with 2 full time stronger D pairs compared to most of last season.
PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
They did it again! #Bolts signed Watson for $776,665. Why?
They now have roster $7,649,998 over cap. That’s $2 less than Cap Hit for LTIR Seabrook ($6.875M) & Brown ($775K)
They optimized LTIR w/in $2. Can then put Vasilevskiy on LTIR & gain 9.5M
That’s all well and good, but I’d rather have Vasilevskiy healthy to start the season than a 4th line scrub.
With how competitive the East is, there’s a good chance the Bolts are out of the playoffs by Christmas.
Bob Stauffer@Bob_Stauffer·1m
Both Mattias Ekholm and Brett Kulak are on the ice today for @EdmontonOilers practice.
Markus Niemelainen is not.
————
Added for the Niemalainen bit. Wonder if they put him on LTIR immediately after getting roster compliance.
Updated info is that Ekholm and Kulak are pretty much full participants.
Gregor was saying yesterday that Niemo would be evaluation in a week or so and the current intent is not to be on LTIR but I guess we’ll see.
So if Lavoie clears (or also if he doesn’t I guess), do they sign Ernie?
In a lot of ways that would be the best asset management for the organization. Add a bottom of the roster type and stash as many quality players as possible (Lavoie, Pederson, Malone, Hamblin, Gagner eventually, etc) in Bakersfield.
That approach would block Lavoie (if he clears) somewhat from an NHL spot, but it would also add to the organizational depth. I’ll be curious to see what the Oiler and Condor rosters look like once the dust settles.
The issue is cap space versus asset management. They don’t have the dollars to spend on anyone.
And the Niem injury added a wrinkle as he remains on NHL payroll till healthy/on injured reserve.
This is the peril of running so close to cap to start the season. Forces strange decisions
Not really sure what you mean by the vs. here.
Given that Lavoie cleared (and waiving him was a calculated risk), it seems to me like this is an example of good asset management. Which is what I speculated initially.
Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
13m
Ekholm, Kulak, McLeod and Erne are all on the ice for Oilers practice.
Allan: I have always looked forward to reading your blog on the holidays, even as things have taken a dark turn this last year. Thanksgiving perhaps most of all.
Glad you found a solution for the turkey issue, hope it is both delicious and somehow not at all the same as Jo-Anne’s turkey which you remember so fondly.
Happy Thanksgiving to you & to all the regulars here.
A Happy Thanksgiving to you and the McCurdy clan too, Bruce. I really enjoy your prose and insight into the Oilers.
Well spoken LT. Hope this blog and those around you helps you find peace and joy in this crazy world.
As for Lavoie. if we are in Go For it mode, then who helps us win right now? Sorry but Janmark is more valuable then Lavoie based on where they slot in the opening lineup. We can be worried about injuries and depth (same issue most teams have) but in the top 12, Lavoie is the 12th forward. he doesn’t kill penalties. will get no PP time and will play less then 10 mins night.
What do we lack in out top 12 forwards? We have a lack of gritensity. Erne fits better then Lavoie for the role this roster needs right now.
Go For It mode means it’s all about this year. We can bash Holland for the cap contraints leading to having to waive Lavoie. But we aren’t losing a difference maker for this year.
I totally agree on Janmark and I was surprised to see so many touting sending him down as the “obvious” solution. There’s no way Lavoie is more valuable than Janmark to the NHL team this year
Janmark is replaceable. Erne would be a joke compared to Vegas’s 4th line forwards, who can actually play. Vegas has FOUR lines, and no fourth line.
Talent trumps replaceable functionality if one wants to win a Stanley Cup. One needs more players who can piss a drop offensively.
Seems a lot of people are coming down with HH-itis.
10 goals and 15 assists from the 4rth line is pretty good production in that spot. Especially from a guy that makes our PK better.
Oilers Access@oilersaccess·20m
Elliotte Friedman on 32 Thoughts:
“I do think the Oilers had been one of the teams that talked with the Leafs about Sam Lafferty. I think the Oilers had some interest in Lafferty going back to last season, but they obviously couldn’t work out a deal.”
Sometimes I feel like, given my job, I should have some great words to say to help. But the truth is that it sucks and it’s hard and there’s no perfect map to get through. Everyone takes their own journey. You’re right, though, LT. Time helps. Keep journeying my friend.
Incredible words LT, thank you.
Elliotte Friedman reposted
Sabres PR
@SabresPR
The Buffalo Sabres have signed defenseman Rasmus Dahlin to an eight-year contract extension worth $88 million ($11 million AAV).
Nurse at 15% less than the top of the market..
As the cap rises, it floats all boats.
The Bouchard contract should be interesting.
Not as interesting as your brilliant insight into Bouchard’s next contract.
Within 1 year you went from “Bouchard isn’t even an NHL player” to “Bouchard will take a 1 year bridge and will want hundreds of millions of dollars going forward because his peers made more money than him and because I don’t think he’s an elite player but he definitely should be paid like one!”
Nurse is far from elite but is paid like he is.
The Oilers just made the same mistake with Bouchard.
It won’t turn out well.
“It won’t turn out well.”
And Brogan Rafferty was supposed to play 61 games after being called up.
And phenom Brandt Clarke was being hailed as a Calder Candidate who was going to elevate the Kings blueline this year.
Your warnings and predictions don’t carry as much weight as you seem to think they do.
I’m sure there are so many more dynamics to constructing a NHL roster than we could ever imagine. I’m not saying it’s right or wrong that Lavoie was put on waivers but I’m sure not one person in Oilers management did that knowing what the consequences could be. I’m guessing that was the best decision based on all the bad options presented.
Also I find it amazing how many are upset because the feel he’s the next Jari Kurri. He definitely has potential but in 3 years truly hasn’t done much consistently. Let’s not forget he bet on himself this year with the contract he signed knowing full well this could be one of the consequences.
The other possibility was trading Foegele or Kulak this summer to operate with more cap space.
Every option entails risk.
Every time I mentioned that was going to be necessary the general reaction was that I didn’t know what I was talking about.
This place is often referred to as a math blog but over the years I have noticed on numerous occasions that that doesn’t seem to apply to numbers once dollar signs are put in front of them.
Happy Thanksgiving everybody. 🥸
Holland could of parlayed Ceci, Foegele and Kulak into a top 4 reliable D. We could of kept Kostin and Lavoie there’ s a tonne of Gleason types that can play bottom pairing. I’m just thankful Sutter retired because with the non stop propaganda by the Oiler leads me to believe they had him penciled in before Lavoie could even lace up his skates.
Just because you can parlay Ceci, Kulak, and Foegele into a top 4 dman in NHL24 doesn’t mean Holland can snap his fingers and make it in happen in real life.
Decisions were made for sure.
Personally I like to see 2-3 new names every season just because it keeps things fresh in the locker room and with the coaching staff. You don’t want a turnstile but you also don’t want complacency in the bottom half of your roster.
I fear that the pressure of being Cup favourites influenced Holland’s roster decisions this summer and I’m not convinced that was the best path.
Sather always set free 2-3 players for better money elsewhere and upgraded in the process. Sather and Muckler had the midas touch and knew the value of a 3rd line Centre. Its been 5 years for Holland and they still don’t have a 3rd line Centre they trust.
Why do you think they don’t trust McLeod?
There is a definite risk that Lavoie gets claimed but I think its just as likely that he clears. The responses below are somewhat devils’ advocate – I don’t necessarily agree with LT but there are various ways to view these things and other GMs likely have alternate views:
He’s untested in the NHL because he hadn’t earned a chance to play in the NHL. Until January of this calendar year, his arrows were essentially down since he returned from Vasby.
His first extended length of play that warranted NHL consideration was as the Oilers were gearing up to play for the cup.
He’s had a fine camp but, at the same time, he didn’t play so well as to force his way on to the team like Holloway did last year, did he?
Is he? He hasn’t played an NHL game and we don’t know that he is an NHL player. We think he can likely survive in the NHL with some upside but we don’t know. He’s near $100K over league min, that actually might be prohibitive of some teams claiming him (would have been for the Oilers last year).
He’s proven he can score goals in the AHL, we don’t know if he can score goals in the NHL, right? Ya, he beat Demko with a sweet snipe – well, that’s turned in to a narrative about him being able to “beat NHL goalies from distance” – that shot was from inside the faceoff circles – it was a snice but lets not hang that shot from the rafters quite yet.
———————-
As I said, lots of the above is “Devils’ advocate”. I like Lavoie, I hope he clears and we could see him in the lineup for the home opener.
On the other hand, we have a 23 year old that didn’t do enough in camp to make it so management couldn’t waive him – He didn’t do what Holloway was able to do last exhibition season.
We’re not talking about known little jitterbug player that is what he is. It takes longer for big men to pop Lavoie needed a real test run he could easily fall between a dud and Tage Thompson. No one knows yet so why? I’ll tell you why because it’s Hollands last year before he heads back to Detroit and he’ll sell everything including the kitchen sink to win his 1 Cup in Edmonton,
How many times was Thompson waived and cleared before he stuck in the NHL?
Holloway is a play driver. Lavoie is a shooter/goalscorer.
Holloway can play with anybody and make an impact, and he got chances with McDavid and Draisaitl last year.
Lavoie was given AHL scrubs and tweeners mostly, and/or road games against stacked rosters with tweeners.
If one truly wanted to see what Lavoie might be capable of, they should have put him on the spot and played him with McDavid or Draisaitl.
Plus it was clear from Woodcroft that defensive miscues would be used against him.
31 other NHL teams were not interested in having him on their NHL roster – end stop.
FYI, the saying is full stop.
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Full_stop
Source: https://search.brave.com/search?q=end+stop+definition&source=web